1 00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:14,360 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. 2 00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:19,480 Speaker 1: I'm Joe Wisenthal and I'm right, Tracy Trivia time. You 3 00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:21,599 Speaker 1: already know the answer. I know the answer because you 4 00:00:21,680 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 1: talked about this yesterday. But but prior, okay, okay, prior 5 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:30,280 Speaker 1: to yesterday, yes had I asked you, do you know 6 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:33,440 Speaker 1: the fastest GDP growing country in the world, would you 7 00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:39,120 Speaker 1: have known the answer, I would have said, wait for it, Guianna. 8 00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:41,839 Speaker 1: Really did you really know that? No, of course not. 9 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:43,920 Speaker 1: But now that I know it, I can't lie about it. 10 00:00:44,240 --> 00:00:48,120 Speaker 1: I can't reverse engineer my lack of knowledge Guiana, which 11 00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:54,640 Speaker 1: is kind of surprising, you know, relatively unknown South American country. 12 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:57,800 Speaker 1: People don't talk about it that much. People do not 13 00:00:57,960 --> 00:01:00,640 Speaker 1: talk about it that much, but it is the fastest 14 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 1: growing economy in the world. I think it was like 15 00:01:02,680 --> 00:01:05,399 Speaker 1: they had a year of like for GDP growth or 16 00:01:05,440 --> 00:01:08,559 Speaker 1: something like that recently. But where people are talking about 17 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:12,280 Speaker 1: Guiana a lot more specifically is in the energy industry. 18 00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:15,560 Speaker 1: In the oil industry specifically, there's a lot of oil 19 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:18,360 Speaker 1: there and a lot of oil being discovered all the time. 20 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:20,319 Speaker 1: Like I think, you know, we talked about us supply 21 00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:22,440 Speaker 1: a lot on the show. But outside the US, I 22 00:01:22,440 --> 00:01:24,600 Speaker 1: think like almost all the oil is being discovered in 23 00:01:24,640 --> 00:01:27,040 Speaker 1: Guiana these days. Yeah. I actually saw a tweet in 24 00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:30,200 Speaker 1: the course of this research saying that since one out 25 00:01:30,200 --> 00:01:33,600 Speaker 1: of every three barrels of new oil discovered has been 26 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:35,839 Speaker 1: in Guiana. And of course there's a lot of interest 27 00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:37,960 Speaker 1: in it right now, not just because it could be 28 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:41,119 Speaker 1: a potential source of additional crude at a time when 29 00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:44,640 Speaker 1: the world seems to really need some extra oil, but 30 00:01:44,959 --> 00:01:48,480 Speaker 1: also because it's the sort of new player in the market. 31 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:53,960 Speaker 1: Right It hasn't necessarily declared an allegiance to anyone country 32 00:01:54,080 --> 00:01:57,320 Speaker 1: or anyone group of oil producing nations. I'm thinking of 33 00:01:57,320 --> 00:02:00,080 Speaker 1: OPEC in particular, of course, and so it's sort of 34 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:02,680 Speaker 1: like it kind of feels like it's up for graps. Yeah. 35 00:02:02,720 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 1: So when we think about oil, we talk all the 36 00:02:04,920 --> 00:02:08,239 Speaker 1: time about what's going on in US production. We talked 37 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:11,880 Speaker 1: about OPEC, talked about OPEC plus including Russia. But here 38 00:02:11,960 --> 00:02:16,480 Speaker 1: is this new entity and potentially could be very significant, 39 00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:18,679 Speaker 1: and so it readsones all sorts of interesting questions. What's 40 00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:21,440 Speaker 1: it going to mean to the global oil market and 41 00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:24,600 Speaker 1: what are you know? Okay, the incredible GDP growth of 42 00:02:25,240 --> 00:02:28,480 Speaker 1: Guiana right now, how sustainable is it and what is 43 00:02:28,520 --> 00:02:31,160 Speaker 1: the best prospect for the sort of oil ridges to 44 00:02:31,200 --> 00:02:34,639 Speaker 1: really translate into meaningful economic development from them? Right? So 45 00:02:34,720 --> 00:02:37,240 Speaker 1: this is something I find very interesting because when we 46 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:39,840 Speaker 1: think of a lot of oil producing nations, or we 47 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:42,960 Speaker 1: think about countries that are blessed with lots of resources, 48 00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:46,760 Speaker 1: we automatically start thinking about something known as the resource curse. 49 00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:49,880 Speaker 1: So even if you have a ton of valuable things 50 00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:53,000 Speaker 1: that the rest of the world really wants, it doesn't 51 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:57,760 Speaker 1: automatically translate into really good economic growth. And in fact, 52 00:02:58,000 --> 00:02:59,880 Speaker 1: over the course of history, a lot of countries that 53 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:04,960 Speaker 1: have been blessed with natural resources have experienced subpar development. 54 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:08,120 Speaker 1: So the question for a country like Giana is cannot 55 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:12,079 Speaker 1: avoid the resource curse? And also in an environment where 56 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:16,280 Speaker 1: we're talking about commodity shortages, oil and gas shortages, things 57 00:03:16,360 --> 00:03:19,960 Speaker 1: like that, does the resource curse still exist? Maybe things 58 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:22,360 Speaker 1: start to change now, Yeah, that's a great that's a 59 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:25,400 Speaker 1: great question. And then of course, just how successfully will 60 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 1: the country be in developing its own resources, Because you 61 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:34,080 Speaker 1: can have theoretically abundant resources, but it takes skill and 62 00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:36,360 Speaker 1: it takes some sort of you know, basic you know, 63 00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:39,720 Speaker 1: a certain like their degrees to which how well a 64 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:44,240 Speaker 1: country can exploit their own natural resources. Anyway, I'm really 65 00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:46,720 Speaker 1: excited about our guests. We're going to be speaking to 66 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:49,480 Speaker 1: a historian of oil who's going to help us sort 67 00:03:49,480 --> 00:03:52,880 Speaker 1: of contextualize and understand what's going on in Guiana and 68 00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:55,480 Speaker 1: in the oil market more broadly. We're gonna be speaking 69 00:03:55,480 --> 00:03:58,680 Speaker 1: to Gregory brew. He is a postdoctoral fellow at the 70 00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:02,480 Speaker 1: Jackson School for Global Affairs at Yale University and the 71 00:04:02,720 --> 00:04:05,560 Speaker 1: and he is the author of two forthcoming books on 72 00:04:05,680 --> 00:04:08,640 Speaker 1: oil and we'll get to those, but let's bring him in. Gregory, 73 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:11,240 Speaker 1: thank you so much for coming on the podcast. Hi Joe, 74 00:04:11,320 --> 00:04:13,640 Speaker 1: Hi Tracy, thanks so much for having me on. Yeah, 75 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:16,720 Speaker 1: really excited to chat with you. So let's just start. 76 00:04:16,800 --> 00:04:20,440 Speaker 1: I mean, like, outside of a few conversations about energy, 77 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:23,719 Speaker 1: you don't hear much people talking about the fastest growing 78 00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:26,440 Speaker 1: economy in the world Guiana. But how big of a 79 00:04:26,520 --> 00:04:30,680 Speaker 1: deal are they and these ongoing new discoveries that keep 80 00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:34,320 Speaker 1: being made there in terms of the oil market. Yeah, 81 00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:36,920 Speaker 1: So I think the statistics he throughout just a moment 82 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:40,240 Speaker 1: ago is accurate. I think the last two years, Guiana 83 00:04:40,360 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 1: has an access of GDP growth, which is obviously just astounding, 84 00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:50,080 Speaker 1: it's incredible. Yeah. And the other statistic which was noted was, Yeah, 85 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:53,960 Speaker 1: since one out of every three new barrels that have 86 00:04:54,040 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 1: been discovered worldwide have been discovered in Guiana, specifically off 87 00:04:57,839 --> 00:05:00,599 Speaker 1: the off the coast and offshore off were blocked. So 88 00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:03,960 Speaker 1: Guiana has been, I would argue, one of the most 89 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:08,520 Speaker 1: sort of exciting oil stories of the last five or 90 00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:10,440 Speaker 1: six or seven years. And it's really where a lot 91 00:05:10,480 --> 00:05:13,120 Speaker 1: of the attention is on UM when you get outside 92 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:14,560 Speaker 1: of the United States, when you get off of the 93 00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:18,000 Speaker 1: shale patch places like the Permian or the Bakin or 94 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:21,200 Speaker 1: Marcella shale fields, Guiana is really where the action is, 95 00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:23,360 Speaker 1: especially for you know, for the companies that are involved 96 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:27,240 Speaker 1: there like Egson has Shale Totel. Yeah, full disclosure. I 97 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:30,360 Speaker 1: think I got that stat about UM the oil barrels 98 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:33,960 Speaker 1: one in every three oil barrels UH discovered having been 99 00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:35,880 Speaker 1: in Guiana. I think I got that from your Twitter account, 100 00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:40,400 Speaker 1: so from Bloomberg. Yet you know I'm not holding those 101 00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:45,719 Speaker 1: bets very circular. Yeah, all right, but actually so I 102 00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:48,000 Speaker 1: have a question on this. So I believe the oil 103 00:05:48,040 --> 00:05:51,840 Speaker 1: Indiana was discovered in twenty fifteen, and you already mentioned 104 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:53,800 Speaker 1: that most of it is off shore, maybe all of 105 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:56,480 Speaker 1: it is off shore. Why did it take so long, 106 00:05:56,720 --> 00:05:59,800 Speaker 1: Like was there new technology developed that made those oil 107 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:03,320 Speaker 1: serves viable or did no one know that they were there? 108 00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:07,200 Speaker 1: Because you know, I think about its geographic location. It's 109 00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 1: not that far away from Venezuela. We know Venezuela has oil, 110 00:06:10,720 --> 00:06:13,760 Speaker 1: so why would we not have assumed that maybe Kean 111 00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:17,240 Speaker 1: it does too. Yeah. Absolutely, I think it stemmed from 112 00:06:17,839 --> 00:06:21,839 Speaker 1: three sort of core causes. U. The first was the 113 00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:26,040 Speaker 1: government in Guiana got interested in opening up areas for 114 00:06:26,200 --> 00:06:30,640 Speaker 1: oil exploration around two thousand to two thousand three, so 115 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:34,800 Speaker 1: there was a local sort of policy change that opened 116 00:06:34,839 --> 00:06:38,320 Speaker 1: areas up for exploration. I think there was a technological shift, 117 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:42,400 Speaker 1: like obviously deep water and offshore oil drilling has become 118 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:45,760 Speaker 1: much more advanced in the last twenty thirty years. You're 119 00:06:45,800 --> 00:06:50,719 Speaker 1: able to conduct more sort of intensive seismic geological surveys, 120 00:06:50,760 --> 00:06:53,400 Speaker 1: so finding oil is a little bit easier. Um. But 121 00:06:53,440 --> 00:06:56,120 Speaker 1: it was also just a function of majors like Exxon. 122 00:06:56,360 --> 00:07:01,280 Speaker 1: We're interested in searching areas that a companies other places 123 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:03,880 Speaker 1: hadn't really looked at, and Guiana was you know, something 124 00:07:03,920 --> 00:07:06,000 Speaker 1: of a of a new area, but it did take 125 00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:08,039 Speaker 1: a while. I think eggs On, which is sort of 126 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:10,440 Speaker 1: the major player here when you're looking at the companies 127 00:07:10,440 --> 00:07:13,880 Speaker 1: that are involved down there. Exson started looking offshore Guiana 128 00:07:13,880 --> 00:07:17,080 Speaker 1: in about two thousand and eight. Uh, and I think 129 00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:21,040 Speaker 1: you know, drilling started an earnest in, so it took 130 00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:23,680 Speaker 1: a while and then you know, really started coming on in. 131 00:07:26,160 --> 00:07:28,320 Speaker 1: So it took a while. You know, as we all know, 132 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:33,120 Speaker 1: there are pretty long lead times on greenfield oil exploration 133 00:07:33,120 --> 00:07:36,200 Speaker 1: production operations, and Guiana was no different. Can I ask 134 00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:39,200 Speaker 1: just one more sort of process question. But when we 135 00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:41,720 Speaker 1: say that Exon is the major player there and they 136 00:07:41,760 --> 00:07:44,920 Speaker 1: decided to start exploring, how does it actually work. Does 137 00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:48,080 Speaker 1: you know an oil company comes to a government and 138 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:50,640 Speaker 1: they say, hey, we think there might be some oil 139 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:53,920 Speaker 1: under the ground or offshore or wherever. We're interested in 140 00:07:53,960 --> 00:07:56,880 Speaker 1: exploring it. And then they start doing that and then 141 00:07:56,920 --> 00:08:01,160 Speaker 1: they get like a first mover advantage before other people 142 00:08:01,240 --> 00:08:04,040 Speaker 1: start coming in, or do they get exclusive rights. How 143 00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:07,200 Speaker 1: does it work? Yeah, that's a great question. So you know, 144 00:08:07,280 --> 00:08:10,880 Speaker 1: historically companies like Exon, you know, the big international companies, 145 00:08:10,920 --> 00:08:13,160 Speaker 1: they have the resources to do this kind of exploration 146 00:08:13,200 --> 00:08:16,040 Speaker 1: because they can go to a country like Guiana and say, 147 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:18,520 Speaker 1: you know, if you give us a concession, if you 148 00:08:18,560 --> 00:08:21,160 Speaker 1: give us rights to an offshore or an onshore block, 149 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:24,360 Speaker 1: then we'll, you know, we'll pay a royalty, We'll give 150 00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:27,760 Speaker 1: you a sheriff the profits once we've recouped our investment. Right, 151 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 1: so we'll put up the money, will search. If we 152 00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:32,400 Speaker 1: find something, you'll get a piece of it. But if not, 153 00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:34,319 Speaker 1: then we're really the ones who are on the hook here. 154 00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:36,520 Speaker 1: The government doesn't really have to put up much upfront. 155 00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:39,400 Speaker 1: The company is taking on the risk. Um as far 156 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:42,400 Speaker 1: as the offshore fields are concerned. Exons down there working 157 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:47,880 Speaker 1: in a consortium of companies along with hash Hess, Total Shell, 158 00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:50,480 Speaker 1: and that's you know, that's just a way of spreading 159 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:52,560 Speaker 1: the risk around, right. A big even a big company 160 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:54,400 Speaker 1: like Exon, doesn't want to take on all the risk 161 00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:57,719 Speaker 1: for a big offshore operation like Guiana. So I think 162 00:08:57,760 --> 00:09:00,199 Speaker 1: the stats, I mean, I think it's something like a 163 00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:03,920 Speaker 1: thirty five percent share is what Exxon has down there. 164 00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:05,320 Speaker 1: I might be a little bit off on that, but 165 00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:08,280 Speaker 1: as far as how it's splitting things up with the government, 166 00:09:08,559 --> 00:09:13,040 Speaker 1: Exon pays a two percent royalty and profits after recouping 167 00:09:13,040 --> 00:09:15,439 Speaker 1: the investment. And now that they have you know, now 168 00:09:15,440 --> 00:09:17,480 Speaker 1: that they have done, they've earned back the money that 169 00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:21,720 Speaker 1: they spent exploring and drilling. Both Eggson and the government 170 00:09:21,760 --> 00:09:25,360 Speaker 1: of Guiana are starting to make a significant profit from 171 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 1: the off shore operations. So I've seen some stories and 172 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:31,640 Speaker 1: I'm not exactly sure what's going on, but is there 173 00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:35,600 Speaker 1: some thought within the government there to just set up 174 00:09:35,600 --> 00:09:39,000 Speaker 1: a state owned oil company and cut out these international 175 00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:41,600 Speaker 1: majors because it's still like their oil they set the laws, Like, 176 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:46,560 Speaker 1: what is this sort of stance currently in terms of, uh, 177 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:48,800 Speaker 1: the sort of future of this relationship. I guess i'd 178 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:52,920 Speaker 1: put it right. So the relationship is still fairly new, 179 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:56,199 Speaker 1: you know, We're operations have only really been on going 180 00:09:56,200 --> 00:10:00,000 Speaker 1: for a couple of years. Guiana is a fairly small country. 181 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:02,199 Speaker 1: It has a population of about eight hundred thousand people. 182 00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:06,800 Speaker 1: I think a fairly small, underdeveloped economy outside of the 183 00:10:06,840 --> 00:10:09,840 Speaker 1: oil industry. Uh. And I think as far as setting 184 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:12,120 Speaker 1: up a state owned oil company, I don't think the 185 00:10:12,120 --> 00:10:16,120 Speaker 1: government is there yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if, 186 00:10:16,160 --> 00:10:18,920 Speaker 1: you know, if momentum started to build towards that because 187 00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:20,480 Speaker 1: you know, if you look at history, if you look 188 00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:26,000 Speaker 1: at how uh these things have gone in places like Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, 189 00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:30,880 Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia. Generally speaking, for foreign companies, very often American companies. 190 00:10:31,400 --> 00:10:33,200 Speaker 1: They come in, they put up the investment, they do 191 00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:36,240 Speaker 1: the exploration, they start production, and within a few years 192 00:10:36,360 --> 00:10:40,000 Speaker 1: a decade or so, the local government has built up 193 00:10:40,000 --> 00:10:42,680 Speaker 1: the resources, the technical know how, the proficiency that it 194 00:10:42,760 --> 00:10:45,520 Speaker 1: needs to set up a national oil company and to 195 00:10:45,559 --> 00:10:47,520 Speaker 1: start thinking like, hey, why do we need these foreign 196 00:10:47,520 --> 00:10:50,079 Speaker 1: companies to do this. We can operate this industry ourselves. 197 00:10:50,200 --> 00:10:54,240 Speaker 1: Then you start seeing momentum towards nationalization or taking a 198 00:10:54,400 --> 00:10:57,040 Speaker 1: more significant share in the operation. I don't think that's 199 00:10:57,040 --> 00:11:00,000 Speaker 1: started yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if the momentum 200 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:13,320 Speaker 1: builds towards that in the next years. So we've been 201 00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:18,200 Speaker 1: talking about corporate interest in Guiana's oil. What about I 202 00:11:18,240 --> 00:11:23,319 Speaker 1: guess interest from a sort of sovereign strategic political level. 203 00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:26,640 Speaker 1: If Exxon comes in starts developing oil, Exxon is an 204 00:11:26,640 --> 00:11:31,320 Speaker 1: American company, does that like automatically equate to suddenly Gianna 205 00:11:31,400 --> 00:11:33,800 Speaker 1: is going to be America's new best best friend, and 206 00:11:33,840 --> 00:11:37,880 Speaker 1: maybe a sort of offset to UM. You know, OPEC 207 00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:41,200 Speaker 1: countries in Saudi Arabia, which doesn't seem to be playing 208 00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:45,640 Speaker 1: ball with the Biden administration at the moment. I'm not 209 00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:48,839 Speaker 1: sure if there's really much focused on that quite yet, 210 00:11:48,920 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 1: because it's still fairly early days. UM I think, you know, 211 00:11:53,520 --> 00:11:56,440 Speaker 1: I think there is often an association that a company 212 00:11:56,520 --> 00:12:00,400 Speaker 1: like Eggson works as an arm of US for policy, 213 00:12:00,520 --> 00:12:03,319 Speaker 1: and that generally really isn't the case. Ex on Mobile, 214 00:12:03,360 --> 00:12:07,239 Speaker 1: other U other major energy companies aren't in business for themselves, 215 00:12:07,800 --> 00:12:10,440 Speaker 1: and they see operations like the operation in Guiana as 216 00:12:10,480 --> 00:12:13,960 Speaker 1: a commercial operation. I don't know if the US government 217 00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:15,480 Speaker 1: sees it that way. I don't know if there are 218 00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:19,600 Speaker 1: discussions inside the Biden administration about getting closer to Guiana, 219 00:12:19,640 --> 00:12:22,920 Speaker 1: trying to form a closer relationship with an eye towards 220 00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:26,880 Speaker 1: developing you know, as you say, sort of relationships relationships 221 00:12:26,920 --> 00:12:30,480 Speaker 1: with non OPEC oil producers. But again, I wouldn't be 222 00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:34,000 Speaker 1: surprised if we started seeing conversations like that. If the 223 00:12:34,080 --> 00:12:38,320 Speaker 1: US relationship with OPEC continues to get frostier, continues to 224 00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:41,040 Speaker 1: get more antagonistic, I think there will be more interest 225 00:12:41,080 --> 00:12:43,160 Speaker 1: in that. Again, you know, as a historian, I'm always 226 00:12:43,200 --> 00:12:46,160 Speaker 1: seeing parallels in history, and this is something that occurred 227 00:12:46,240 --> 00:12:49,600 Speaker 1: in the nineteen eighties, when the US was very interested 228 00:12:49,640 --> 00:12:52,240 Speaker 1: in moving away from reliance on opec. It formed closer 229 00:12:52,280 --> 00:12:57,200 Speaker 1: relationships with places like Canada, Mexico, Norway, the United Kingdom. 230 00:12:57,400 --> 00:13:00,960 Speaker 1: These sources of non opec oil seem much more important. 231 00:13:01,080 --> 00:13:03,160 Speaker 1: So it's entirely possible that we could see something like 232 00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:06,520 Speaker 1: that happened between the US and Guiana in the years ahead. 233 00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:11,760 Speaker 1: So let's stick with the history theme your specialty. Is 234 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:16,360 Speaker 1: there another country throughout history that sort of has a 235 00:13:16,520 --> 00:13:19,760 Speaker 1: parallel where for a long time, maybe people weren't thinking 236 00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:22,120 Speaker 1: of it as a power player, and then it emerged 237 00:13:22,679 --> 00:13:25,680 Speaker 1: very fast. And so when you see the rise of Guiana, 238 00:13:25,800 --> 00:13:29,600 Speaker 1: does it make you think of anything else? Sure? I mean, 239 00:13:29,679 --> 00:13:32,640 Speaker 1: you know, in preparing to come on today, I did 240 00:13:32,960 --> 00:13:35,320 Speaker 1: I did some background reading. I refreshed myself a little 241 00:13:35,360 --> 00:13:37,640 Speaker 1: bit on the history of things like the resource curse, 242 00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:41,280 Speaker 1: you know, the Dutch disease, the paradox and plenty all 243 00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:44,760 Speaker 1: of that. And you really do see stark parallels between 244 00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:48,680 Speaker 1: what is happening in Guiana and what happened in Venezuela, 245 00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:51,719 Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia in the nineteen fifties and sixties, these were 246 00:13:51,720 --> 00:13:54,680 Speaker 1: relatively you know, you go back sixty seventy years, go 247 00:13:54,679 --> 00:13:58,600 Speaker 1: back to say, right the end of World War Two, Venezuela, 248 00:13:58,679 --> 00:14:05,240 Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia fairly small countries economically, fairly small populations, but 249 00:14:05,280 --> 00:14:08,560 Speaker 1: as far as their footprint geo politically or or you know, 250 00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:12,320 Speaker 1: sort of geoeconomically, they became very important, very quickly to 251 00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:16,960 Speaker 1: the global economy because of their status as major oil exporters. 252 00:14:17,000 --> 00:14:19,320 Speaker 1: So as far as where Guiana is headed, you know, 253 00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:22,920 Speaker 1: as the operations continue to expand. Right now it's producing 254 00:14:22,920 --> 00:14:26,320 Speaker 1: about three thousand barrels a day. Within a year, it 255 00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:29,120 Speaker 1: could be producing a million. Within three or four years, 256 00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:31,800 Speaker 1: it could be producing two million. I mean, it had 257 00:14:31,840 --> 00:14:35,680 Speaker 1: to keep expanding the estimates of proven reserves as they 258 00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:37,640 Speaker 1: find more and more oil, so you know, things could 259 00:14:37,680 --> 00:14:39,360 Speaker 1: just keep going up from here. So I think there 260 00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:43,600 Speaker 1: are definitely parallels between where Guiana is and where these 261 00:14:43,760 --> 00:14:47,120 Speaker 1: sort of more mature or more sort of older petro 262 00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:49,880 Speaker 1: states like Venezuela Saudi Arabia where they were sixty or 263 00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:52,280 Speaker 1: seventy years ago. In many ways, history does seem to 264 00:14:52,280 --> 00:14:56,200 Speaker 1: be repeating itself. So one thing that has happened historically 265 00:14:56,200 --> 00:14:59,120 Speaker 1: as well, is we do get these periods of excitement 266 00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:03,000 Speaker 1: about a new commodity producing nation, And the one that 267 00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:06,160 Speaker 1: I can remember most recently was Mozambique and natural gas, 268 00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:08,560 Speaker 1: and everyone got really excited, Oh, they have all these 269 00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:11,120 Speaker 1: gas reserves and they're going to be a new powerhouse 270 00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:14,840 Speaker 1: on the global commodities markets. And you know, fast forward 271 00:15:14,880 --> 00:15:18,160 Speaker 1: many many years. I was reading today that Mozambique is 272 00:15:18,160 --> 00:15:20,840 Speaker 1: going to send its first l en G shipment to 273 00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:24,480 Speaker 1: Europe relatively soon, I think this month. And that's after 274 00:15:24,680 --> 00:15:29,160 Speaker 1: years and years and years of people talking about Mozambique 275 00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:32,800 Speaker 1: being the next big gas exporter. What are the sort 276 00:15:32,840 --> 00:15:37,720 Speaker 1: of challenges or potential problems that can come on stream 277 00:15:37,760 --> 00:15:41,200 Speaker 1: as resource production gets ramped up? Like why do we 278 00:15:41,280 --> 00:15:48,040 Speaker 1: have these periods of excitement only sometimes to be disappointed? Right? Absolutely, so, 279 00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:51,080 Speaker 1: you're absolutely right. You know, very often when these big 280 00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:53,840 Speaker 1: fines are made, when these big discoveries are made, there's 281 00:15:53,880 --> 00:15:57,760 Speaker 1: an intense early period of very high expectations. Right, where 282 00:15:57,800 --> 00:15:59,800 Speaker 1: could this lead? You know, how could this develop and 283 00:15:59,840 --> 00:16:03,880 Speaker 1: do an even larger find How do we transform reserves 284 00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:07,560 Speaker 1: into exports? Right? Because you need to manage the resource 285 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:10,160 Speaker 1: in order to develop it, in order to in order 286 00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:12,920 Speaker 1: for it to grow turn into something that could be exported. 287 00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:15,160 Speaker 1: And I think in the case of Guiana and other 288 00:16:15,680 --> 00:16:20,360 Speaker 1: early stage resource rich states, the question really comes down 289 00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:25,400 Speaker 1: to local government, local resource management, and the relationship between 290 00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:29,640 Speaker 1: the local government and foreign companies. So in some cases, 291 00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:33,360 Speaker 1: I'm not too familiar with the Mozambique case, but in 292 00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:37,760 Speaker 1: some cases there's a fairly early pushback from the local 293 00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:42,080 Speaker 1: government to foreign companies. You see expropriations, you see nationalizations, 294 00:16:42,160 --> 00:16:44,720 Speaker 1: you see a local attempt to seize control of the 295 00:16:44,760 --> 00:16:47,880 Speaker 1: resource at a very early stage, and that can sometimes 296 00:16:47,960 --> 00:16:52,560 Speaker 1: lead to resource mismanagement. It can lead to capital being 297 00:16:52,640 --> 00:16:55,320 Speaker 1: drained away or in some cases being sort of scared off, 298 00:16:55,960 --> 00:16:59,880 Speaker 1: and very quickly the expectations, the excitement drains away, and 299 00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:03,360 Speaker 1: you're left with UH, an industry or resource that can't 300 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:05,480 Speaker 1: get off of its feet. And I think right now, 301 00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:08,639 Speaker 1: in the course of doing research for this UH, you know, 302 00:17:08,680 --> 00:17:10,359 Speaker 1: for this appearance, I was reading a little bit about 303 00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:15,439 Speaker 1: the Guiana government's attitude towards Exxon, and they're interested in 304 00:17:15,560 --> 00:17:18,359 Speaker 1: maintaining a close relationship with Exxon. They have a lot 305 00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:21,600 Speaker 1: of grievances with Exons approach to things like royalty and 306 00:17:21,640 --> 00:17:24,760 Speaker 1: tax payments. But they're very interested in maintaining this relationship 307 00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:28,320 Speaker 1: because they want the resource to grow, because they want 308 00:17:28,480 --> 00:17:31,840 Speaker 1: exports to come on. They're worried about following the footsteps 309 00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:35,720 Speaker 1: of a Mozambique or even in of a Venezuela, where 310 00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:38,320 Speaker 1: an oil and the oil industry is you know, almost 311 00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:41,560 Speaker 1: entirely collapsed in the last six or seven years as 312 00:17:41,560 --> 00:17:44,920 Speaker 1: the result of various state management policies and that sort 313 00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:47,480 Speaker 1: of thing. So, you know, there is this early period 314 00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:49,760 Speaker 1: of excitement, but where it goes from here depends in 315 00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:53,080 Speaker 1: large part on how the local government decides to act, 316 00:17:53,320 --> 00:17:55,679 Speaker 1: on the kinds of policies it tries to implement, and 317 00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:59,760 Speaker 1: on how it manages its relationship with the big foreign companies. 318 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:01,960 Speaker 1: So I have two questions. The first one is kind 319 00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:04,360 Speaker 1: of short, but when we talk about, okay, maybe at 320 00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:07,320 Speaker 1: some point Guiana could set up a state owned oil company. 321 00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:11,280 Speaker 1: Does does the existence of a state owned oil company 322 00:18:11,320 --> 00:18:15,520 Speaker 1: preclude the possibility of Exxon having a significant role or 323 00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:18,080 Speaker 1: could you have a state owned oil company in name 324 00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:22,919 Speaker 1: but still outsourced a lot of operational decisions to a 325 00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:28,679 Speaker 1: multinational with significant expertise. Yeah? Absolutely, so generally how this 326 00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:33,200 Speaker 1: has gone is, you know, after the initial discovery, after 327 00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:37,120 Speaker 1: the early stage investment where you mostly have foreign companies 328 00:18:37,160 --> 00:18:41,080 Speaker 1: operating the industry, a national energy company is established and 329 00:18:41,119 --> 00:18:43,840 Speaker 1: then it proceeds to mature over the course of you know, 330 00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:47,639 Speaker 1: several years and decades, several decades. It develops technical expertise, 331 00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:51,439 Speaker 1: it develops a professional workforce, and at some point it 332 00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:54,720 Speaker 1: obtains a share or participation in the general industry. So 333 00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:58,240 Speaker 1: it operates in partnership with companies like Exon. In some 334 00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:01,480 Speaker 1: cases there's a total exproke aation, there's a total nationalization, 335 00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:04,040 Speaker 1: Exxon is kicked out, the operations are taken over by 336 00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:06,760 Speaker 1: the state oil company. But in other cases you do 337 00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:10,480 Speaker 1: see it sort of a transitional stage where there's more partnership, 338 00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:15,720 Speaker 1: there's more participation between the state owned energy company and 339 00:19:15,760 --> 00:19:19,200 Speaker 1: the foreign international So that does happen, and I would imagine, 340 00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:22,880 Speaker 1: you know, where the Gayana government currently is and where 341 00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:25,080 Speaker 1: it wants to go. I think in managing this resource, 342 00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:27,480 Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surprised if that's the course they decided 343 00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:30,639 Speaker 1: to take. Establish a state owned firm, you know, gradually 344 00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:34,800 Speaker 1: enter the operations take on an increasing share and gradually 345 00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 1: nationalized the industry, keeping a role for uh, you know, 346 00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:41,679 Speaker 1: foreign companies like Exxon to continue to grow the reserve, 347 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:44,480 Speaker 1: to continue to explore, and to take advantage of the 348 00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:48,120 Speaker 1: foreign technical expertise and the foreign capital. Right so, even 349 00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:50,919 Speaker 1: if even as they develop, you know, greater resources and 350 00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:53,159 Speaker 1: greater earnings, they're still going to be looking for foreign 351 00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:56,399 Speaker 1: capital to further develop the industry. So what does histories 352 00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:59,199 Speaker 1: say about the countries that have done this best, not 353 00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:02,320 Speaker 1: just in terms of building out their domestic production, but 354 00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:05,560 Speaker 1: distributing it widely so that you know, you don't have 355 00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:09,520 Speaker 1: the sort of resource curse Dutch disease phenomenon. What are 356 00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:12,439 Speaker 1: the best examples of paths the countries have taken so 357 00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:15,639 Speaker 1: that the benefits really do accrew across the country and 358 00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:21,080 Speaker 1: you have like widespread economic development. Absolutely, this is the 359 00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:23,840 Speaker 1: big question, right There are a few good examples. Um. 360 00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:27,520 Speaker 1: The classic example that people point to is Norway. Norway 361 00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:30,760 Speaker 1: discovered offshore oil and gas in the late nineteen sixties. 362 00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:34,880 Speaker 1: By the nineteen nineties nine eighties, it was a major exporter. 363 00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:38,400 Speaker 1: It's still a major exporter today, and yet it doesn't 364 00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:41,359 Speaker 1: seem to have suffered from governance issues. It doesn't seem 365 00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:44,480 Speaker 1: to have suffered from, you know, widespread state corruption, and 366 00:20:44,520 --> 00:20:48,040 Speaker 1: it's been able to develop its resource efficiently, it's been 367 00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:51,560 Speaker 1: able to distribute revenues in an acceptable and sort of 368 00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:55,680 Speaker 1: equitable way. Other examples would be the United Kingdom, which 369 00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:58,240 Speaker 1: discovered oil in the late nineteen sixties in the North Sea, 370 00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:01,879 Speaker 1: became a major exporter in the nineteen eighties. Um, but 371 00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:04,600 Speaker 1: there really aren't many, you know, in many cases where 372 00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:09,600 Speaker 1: oil is discovered, uh, it doesn't generate the kinds of viable, 373 00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:12,600 Speaker 1: positive economic results you want to see. And there are 374 00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:14,840 Speaker 1: many reasons for that. And one of the reasons for 375 00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:17,639 Speaker 1: it is that very often, and this is this is 376 00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:20,200 Speaker 1: some of the one of the more troubling aspects. Very 377 00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:23,640 Speaker 1: often the resource is controlled and dominated at an early 378 00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:28,240 Speaker 1: stage by foreign capital. So foreign companies, you know, like 379 00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:32,119 Speaker 1: they're interested in developing oil, they're not very interested in 380 00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:35,679 Speaker 1: general national economic development, right. What they want to do 381 00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:39,040 Speaker 1: is developed resources that they can produce profit frums to 382 00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:42,280 Speaker 1: return to their shareholders. So in states like Guiana, or 383 00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:45,520 Speaker 1: looking back into history, states like Iran, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, 384 00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:49,200 Speaker 1: in early stages of the development of oil industries, where 385 00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:52,240 Speaker 1: you had an oversized role being played by foreign capital. 386 00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:56,240 Speaker 1: You had these problems around governance, you have these problems 387 00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:59,800 Speaker 1: around corruption and a lack of adequate economic development appel 388 00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:03,080 Speaker 1: appearing at an early stage, and you know, once they 389 00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:05,520 Speaker 1: had matured, once they had become sort of set in stone, 390 00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:09,240 Speaker 1: it was very difficult for national governments to correct them. 391 00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:12,040 Speaker 1: So the problem of you know, what role foreign capital 392 00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:14,320 Speaker 1: can play in this, you know, in the so called 393 00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:16,760 Speaker 1: resource curse, is something that I have a great interest 394 00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:19,520 Speaker 1: in as an academic, as a scholar, but I think 395 00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:22,040 Speaker 1: it's also something that governments like Guiana are conscious of. 396 00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:26,040 Speaker 1: You know, how do we manage this resource adequately on 397 00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:29,400 Speaker 1: a national level while still retaining the support of foreign 398 00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:32,439 Speaker 1: capital that we need to develop our industry, knowing that 399 00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:36,520 Speaker 1: foreign capital may not share our same political, economic, and 400 00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:39,240 Speaker 1: social interests in the development of that resource. That's a 401 00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:41,879 Speaker 1: huge question that has faced states throughout the point in 402 00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:45,960 Speaker 1: century and faces Gianna today. So I realized in the intro, 403 00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:48,360 Speaker 1: I said, well, maybe things are different and the resource 404 00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:52,160 Speaker 1: curse doesn't exist anymore because everyone needs boil. But actually 405 00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:55,680 Speaker 1: actually you could very easily argue it the other way 406 00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:59,359 Speaker 1: around and say, since people need more oil, prices are higher, 407 00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:02,840 Speaker 1: you're going to get even more interest in the scarce commodity. 408 00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:06,320 Speaker 1: And I have heard a really basic analogy for the 409 00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:09,720 Speaker 1: resource curse. I've heard people compare it to a lottery. 410 00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:12,159 Speaker 1: So the same thing that happens to someone who wins 411 00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:15,960 Speaker 1: a big powerball prize, you know, rarely does that actually 412 00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:18,199 Speaker 1: lead to a good outcome for them in terms of 413 00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:21,320 Speaker 1: standards of living. I would be different from me to me, 414 00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:23,679 Speaker 1: I'm sure we would all be very everyone listening to 415 00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:27,600 Speaker 1: the podcast. I would also I would also not letting 416 00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:31,600 Speaker 1: the same thing. Okay, great, we've established that. But does 417 00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:36,000 Speaker 1: an era of resource scarcity, does that maybe make the 418 00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:40,520 Speaker 1: danger of a resource curse more acute? That's a good question. 419 00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:43,240 Speaker 1: I think it can, and I think part of the 420 00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:47,159 Speaker 1: reason that it can is that the problems associated with 421 00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:50,560 Speaker 1: the resource curse often become worse if the price of 422 00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:54,280 Speaker 1: said resource is perceived to be high and is expected 423 00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:57,680 Speaker 1: to rise in future years. Right, So the temptation to 424 00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:03,960 Speaker 1: develop a dependence on this resource, it's very easy to 425 00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:06,520 Speaker 1: to accept if you think like, well, this is selling. 426 00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:09,119 Speaker 1: You know, this is selling for eighty dollars a barrel now, 427 00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:11,320 Speaker 1: But as it becomes more scarce moving forward, it's going 428 00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:13,320 Speaker 1: to sell for a hundred and hundred twenty dollars barrel 429 00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:16,159 Speaker 1: in the future. We would be fools not to not 430 00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:18,359 Speaker 1: to grow this industry, right, we would be fools not 431 00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:21,040 Speaker 1: to invest in it. So I think the expectation of 432 00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:24,520 Speaker 1: scarcity or the expectation, let's say, of high prices, can 433 00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:27,840 Speaker 1: encourage the development of the resource curse. But that leads 434 00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:31,520 Speaker 1: to you know, even bigger problems, which is this the 435 00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:34,720 Speaker 1: problem of volatility. Right, if your national economy is based 436 00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:38,040 Speaker 1: around an export that you hope will retain its value, 437 00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:41,800 Speaker 1: then you're surrendering your economic agency to the vagaries of 438 00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:45,440 Speaker 1: a market. Right. A producer, even a prolific producer like Diana, 439 00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:49,040 Speaker 1: can't be expected to, you know, exert influence over the 440 00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:51,560 Speaker 1: global price of oil at least, you know, the outside 441 00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:55,200 Speaker 1: of a very marginal impact. They're essentially surrendering their economic 442 00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:58,080 Speaker 1: fortuns to the global oil market. So that is, you know, 443 00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:00,919 Speaker 1: that's that's sort of inherent to the dilemma of the 444 00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:04,280 Speaker 1: resource curse, the dilemma of resource exporting nations like Guiana, 445 00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:06,560 Speaker 1: and I imagine it's going to raise some difficult questions 446 00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:10,159 Speaker 1: for Dian and bomb makers, policymakers as they sort of 447 00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:25,720 Speaker 1: continue to grow their center national industry. So, since you 448 00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:28,280 Speaker 1: mentioned the boom bust of oil, I think that's a 449 00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:31,040 Speaker 1: good opportunity to sort of broaden things out a little bit. 450 00:25:31,119 --> 00:25:34,520 Speaker 1: But before we do, what is the prospect of a 451 00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:38,399 Speaker 1: future relationship between Guiana and OPEC. It's not currently a 452 00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:40,960 Speaker 1: member of OPEC? Could it be at some point in 453 00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:42,840 Speaker 1: the future. What would have to happen for it to 454 00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:46,080 Speaker 1: become one? And were it to become a member of OPEC, like, 455 00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:48,080 Speaker 1: how big of a player with it? Like put it 456 00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:51,280 Speaker 1: in context of where it would stand versus some other exporters, 457 00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:55,199 Speaker 1: other big players. Right. So an important thing to know 458 00:25:55,280 --> 00:26:00,919 Speaker 1: about OPEC is it's membership has always been changing. It 459 00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:07,159 Speaker 1: was founded in nineteen sixty by core members Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, 460 00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:11,680 Speaker 1: and Venezuela. It was later joined by countries like Libya, Algeria, 461 00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:16,800 Speaker 1: later countries like Indonesia, Ecuador, um, you know, so it's 462 00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:19,800 Speaker 1: broadened its membership over the course of the last several decades. 463 00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:23,240 Speaker 1: In some cases members have left, you know. Cutar is 464 00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:26,119 Speaker 1: no longer a member of OPEC. So the membership of 465 00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:29,879 Speaker 1: OPEC has been changing. For Guiana to join OPEC, it 466 00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:32,720 Speaker 1: would need to develop what we discussed earlier, which is 467 00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:35,840 Speaker 1: a national oil company. UH, it would have to develop 468 00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:39,520 Speaker 1: the national oil Ministry. It would need to have a 469 00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:44,760 Speaker 1: slightly more advanced infrastructure around governing its resource because an important, 470 00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:47,560 Speaker 1: you know, an important part of how OPEC works is 471 00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:50,240 Speaker 1: the management of loyal not only on a national level, 472 00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:52,960 Speaker 1: but on an international level. UM So I wouldn't you know, 473 00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:56,800 Speaker 1: I wouldn't close the door on Guiana joining OPEC at 474 00:26:56,840 --> 00:26:59,159 Speaker 1: some point in the future. I think we're some ways 475 00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:03,120 Speaker 1: away from that happening. I think we're to join now. 476 00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:07,240 Speaker 1: This is of course contingent on how guiana oil production developed, 477 00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:10,240 Speaker 1: but were it to join, Guiana would be a fairly 478 00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:12,760 Speaker 1: important member of OPEC. Were it to reach a point 479 00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:16,760 Speaker 1: where it's producing and exporting upwards of a million, even 480 00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:18,800 Speaker 1: a million and a half barrels a day, that would 481 00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:21,440 Speaker 1: place it, you know, that place along lines of countries 482 00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:25,320 Speaker 1: like Iraq, Uh and Iran that are exporting that much. 483 00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:29,120 Speaker 1: And again, as Guiana's reserves grow, which is an even 484 00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:32,000 Speaker 1: more important question. Right now, it's reserves are estimated around 485 00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:36,199 Speaker 1: eleven billion barrels, but that number has grown quite significantly 486 00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:38,480 Speaker 1: over the last several years. So as its reserves grow, 487 00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:41,840 Speaker 1: then its role within the international oil economy and its 488 00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:45,680 Speaker 1: potential role in OPEC could become even more significant. Can 489 00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:48,399 Speaker 1: you remind me why can't the US join OPEC? Is 490 00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:51,440 Speaker 1: it um like price fixing law something like that. I'm 491 00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:54,359 Speaker 1: just thinking the US has an interest in smoothing oil 492 00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:57,000 Speaker 1: booms and bus so you know, maybe maybe they can 493 00:27:57,080 --> 00:27:59,320 Speaker 1: join OPEC too. No, I know they can't, But why 494 00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:03,200 Speaker 1: is that? This is funny the meaning that Joe referenced 495 00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:05,920 Speaker 1: that we were at last week UM. I gave a 496 00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:08,480 Speaker 1: little talk about oil policy in the oil dilemma facing 497 00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:10,920 Speaker 1: the United States, and someone in the room asked, uh, 498 00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:13,320 Speaker 1: you know, how does the US solve its problem? And 499 00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:15,600 Speaker 1: I said, well, the US can joan oil Oka that 500 00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:17,600 Speaker 1: that was selves a problem. No, I think there are 501 00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:21,080 Speaker 1: obviously a number of reasons. Antitrust law is one of them. UM. 502 00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:23,639 Speaker 1: The other one is, uh, you know, sort of a 503 00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:27,320 Speaker 1: basic question of oil policy. The US has no national 504 00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:30,879 Speaker 1: oil company. It has really no national oil policy. It 505 00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:35,399 Speaker 1: has hundreds of private companies that manage oil resources porting 506 00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:39,320 Speaker 1: to you know, commercial incentives, market incentive. UM. In the past, 507 00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:44,320 Speaker 1: the US has had production management policies that in many 508 00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:48,840 Speaker 1: ways mirror went OPEC was open like inspired by the 509 00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:52,320 Speaker 1: Texas Railroad Commission, Like, didn't Texas sort of invent OPEC? 510 00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:56,720 Speaker 1: Yeah no, Yeah. Abdullah Tariki, one of the founders of OPEC, 511 00:28:57,160 --> 00:29:00,880 Speaker 1: imagined a pro rantioning scheme by which Peck could manage 512 00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:04,440 Speaker 1: global oil production, and he modeled his scheme on the TRC, 513 00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:07,160 Speaker 1: on the Texas Railroad Commission. I took a class in 514 00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:09,920 Speaker 1: college on the history of Texas oils, and that the 515 00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:12,360 Speaker 1: one fact that I remembered. I don't remember anything else 516 00:29:12,400 --> 00:29:14,760 Speaker 1: about the class, but I do remember that the Railroad 517 00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:18,200 Speaker 1: Commission was like this sort of uh, you know, inspiration 518 00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:19,960 Speaker 1: for OPEC. So I'm glad I got a chance to 519 00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:24,640 Speaker 1: use that professionally. It's the famous, the famous Texas institution 520 00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:27,640 Speaker 1: with the funny name that does that does something completely 521 00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:29,880 Speaker 1: different from what it sounds like. Yeah, that Texas Railroad 522 00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:32,920 Speaker 1: Commission used to manage Texas oil. Um. But yeah, I 523 00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:37,120 Speaker 1: mean the US, the United States had mandatory import quotas, 524 00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:40,240 Speaker 1: it had progression production in Texas and the whee Ciana 525 00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:42,200 Speaker 1: and Oklahoma. You know, he used to have a lot 526 00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:45,920 Speaker 1: of oil management, oil production management, policies that it no 527 00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:48,960 Speaker 1: longer really has. So I think, you know, the question 528 00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:51,000 Speaker 1: of whether or not the U s could join OPEC 529 00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:53,840 Speaker 1: is sort of neither here nor there. But could the 530 00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:58,040 Speaker 1: US and OPEC work together on managing the global supply 531 00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:01,480 Speaker 1: the global price of oil. That I imagine could be 532 00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:04,280 Speaker 1: a possibility. It would take you quite a lot to happen. 533 00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:06,920 Speaker 1: It would take quite a change in the relationship between 534 00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:09,680 Speaker 1: the United States and OPEC, but I could certainly see 535 00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:11,760 Speaker 1: it developing in the future as the US grows, if 536 00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:15,880 Speaker 1: we were more important oil exporter oil producer. Right, So 537 00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:18,040 Speaker 1: it's not really about whether or not they could join OPEC, 538 00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:20,200 Speaker 1: but the fact that we're even talking about it kind 539 00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:24,720 Speaker 1: of highlights this ongoing problem for America and maybe that 540 00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:27,680 Speaker 1: maybe that's our queue to get back into the boom 541 00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:30,920 Speaker 1: bus stuff. So we have spent the better part of 542 00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:34,040 Speaker 1: this year talking about ways to bring down oil prices 543 00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:37,200 Speaker 1: different ways, whether it's oil companies just ramping up production, 544 00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:41,960 Speaker 1: or whether or not it's something um more, I guess complex, 545 00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:46,480 Speaker 1: like the derivative solution, the hedging solution that Scanda proposed 546 00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:51,160 Speaker 1: and successfully um you know, got accepted by the Biden administration. 547 00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:55,240 Speaker 1: But maybe we just jumped to the big question. Is 548 00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:59,760 Speaker 1: there something about oil that makes it inherently cyclical? Is 549 00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:02,840 Speaker 1: this always going to be a cyclical industry? Are there 550 00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:06,000 Speaker 1: limits to the extent to which we can actually smooth 551 00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:12,000 Speaker 1: those cycles? Yeah, I think there's sort of an inherent 552 00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:15,760 Speaker 1: volatility to the oil industry, and it's based on just 553 00:31:15,840 --> 00:31:19,000 Speaker 1: how oil is produced. Right, And when I say produced, 554 00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:21,440 Speaker 1: what I really mean is mine. Oil is in some 555 00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:24,360 Speaker 1: ways a mineral that's mine from the earth. The problem 556 00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:27,720 Speaker 1: with producing oil mining oil is that you can't store 557 00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:31,320 Speaker 1: it very effectively, and once you start producing it, it's 558 00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:34,840 Speaker 1: hard to stop, right, So you can move through periods 559 00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:39,480 Speaker 1: of scarcity and into periods of abundance or oversupply very easily, 560 00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:43,239 Speaker 1: because managing production can be very difficult. Uh, you have 561 00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:47,000 Speaker 1: a constant chase for revenue for profit because you need 562 00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:50,680 Speaker 1: to recoup your investment. Oil is famously very expensive industry 563 00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:53,440 Speaker 1: to get into. It's very expensive. It's very costly to 564 00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:56,480 Speaker 1: develop a field. But once you do develop that field, 565 00:31:56,640 --> 00:31:59,600 Speaker 1: you can produce large amounts of oil very quickly, potentially 566 00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:02,760 Speaker 1: flooding in the market. So historically, you know, looking back 567 00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:06,040 Speaker 1: to the early days of the industry, the seventies the 568 00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:11,760 Speaker 1: eighteen eighties, where in many cases the producers would take 569 00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:13,640 Speaker 1: the oil that they produced from their drills and they 570 00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:16,240 Speaker 1: would flood fields with it because they had no market 571 00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:19,120 Speaker 1: for it, they had nowhere to store it. Uh. You 572 00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:21,960 Speaker 1: see a recurrence of this boom bust cycle throughout the 573 00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:25,360 Speaker 1: history of oil. But what you also see our efforts 574 00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:30,560 Speaker 1: by entities like the TRC, by OPEC and by you know, 575 00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:34,520 Speaker 1: the current alignment OPEC, plus you see efforts to stabilize 576 00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:38,160 Speaker 1: that boom bust volatility, efforts to stabilize the cycle. I 577 00:32:38,200 --> 00:32:42,000 Speaker 1: think saying that it's sort of naturally cyclical is a 578 00:32:42,080 --> 00:32:44,680 Speaker 1: little hard for me to accept because of these constant 579 00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:48,840 Speaker 1: efforts to you know, moderate that that that cycle, moderate 580 00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:52,440 Speaker 1: that volatility. In many ways, the oil industry can't really 581 00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:57,440 Speaker 1: function without some effort to mitigate the inherent volatility. And 582 00:32:57,440 --> 00:32:59,240 Speaker 1: this was something that I mentioned to Joe last week. 583 00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:02,080 Speaker 1: One of the may your problems that everyone has had 584 00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:04,959 Speaker 1: to grapple with has been the return of the United 585 00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:08,480 Speaker 1: States as a major oil exporter. Because of what I 586 00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:11,240 Speaker 1: mentioned before, the US has no central oil and ministry. 587 00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:15,840 Speaker 1: You can't go to OPEC and talk about prorentioning production control. 588 00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:18,520 Speaker 1: President Biden can give a speech where he talks to 589 00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:20,480 Speaker 1: oil and gas companies, but at the end of the day, 590 00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:23,560 Speaker 1: he has a very little control over domestic oil production. 591 00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:25,920 Speaker 1: So this is a big problem, right, how do you 592 00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:30,200 Speaker 1: manage a global, volatile, global oil market when your biggest 593 00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:33,560 Speaker 1: producer has no control? Right? And I wanted to talk 594 00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:36,200 Speaker 1: more about this point exactly because I think when the 595 00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:39,960 Speaker 1: US oil industry really started booming like crazy in the 596 00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:43,080 Speaker 1: last decade, there was probably some optimism. They're like, oh, 597 00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:47,080 Speaker 1: we're gonna like wean ourselves off of UH or we're 598 00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:49,840 Speaker 1: gonna we're no longer going to be dependent on oil independence, 599 00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:54,200 Speaker 1: oil independence, right, and that and that oil independence seemed 600 00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:56,200 Speaker 1: like it was going to be great. And for a while, 601 00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:58,840 Speaker 1: obviously the price of oil plunge, but now it's really 602 00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:02,640 Speaker 1: expensive again. And so you know, even with all of 603 00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:08,200 Speaker 1: the US capacity either currently producing or available to produce, 604 00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:12,080 Speaker 1: it hasn't curbed. It doesn't seem like it's done anything 605 00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:14,799 Speaker 1: to curb curb the boom bus cycles and sort of 606 00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:19,080 Speaker 1: to listen to you, it sounds like it's very unnatural 607 00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:23,200 Speaker 1: and a historical to have a significant amount of oil 608 00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:26,279 Speaker 1: out on the global market. That is not subject to 609 00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:29,640 Speaker 1: some sort of curbs setting aside, like the selling of 610 00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:32,160 Speaker 1: the spr like that is just very unusual to have this. 611 00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:33,960 Speaker 1: I guess now Guiana would be part of this, But 612 00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:36,480 Speaker 1: now there is a lot more and more oil that 613 00:34:36,640 --> 00:34:41,759 Speaker 1: just isn't part of any production management plan. Absolutely. You know, 614 00:34:41,800 --> 00:34:44,360 Speaker 1: there's the US oil that's being pumped into the market. 615 00:34:44,640 --> 00:34:48,640 Speaker 1: There's also a tremendous amount of sanctioned oil that's being 616 00:34:48,680 --> 00:34:52,000 Speaker 1: moved through the global market at discounted prices. It's being 617 00:34:52,040 --> 00:34:56,920 Speaker 1: moved through illicit market channels. You have actors like Russia, Venezuela, Iran, 618 00:34:57,239 --> 00:35:00,640 Speaker 1: they're trying to evade Western sanctions by selling oil uh 619 00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:04,279 Speaker 1: through sort of illicit means. So that's creating greater uncertainty, 620 00:35:04,280 --> 00:35:08,280 Speaker 1: and that's making control even harder, right, it's making mitigating 621 00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:12,640 Speaker 1: volatility even harder. So yeah, looking back through history, you 622 00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:16,399 Speaker 1: constantly see efforts by various state, international, or even local 623 00:35:16,440 --> 00:35:21,000 Speaker 1: actors to try to control this flow. You saw efforts 624 00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:23,680 Speaker 1: by major Western oil companies in the fifties and sixties 625 00:35:23,719 --> 00:35:25,920 Speaker 1: to moderate production to try to make sure that supply 626 00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:29,880 Speaker 1: could match demand. And we don't have a similar structure, 627 00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:34,240 Speaker 1: a similar system for managing that and the additional problem 628 00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:37,280 Speaker 1: is that in the past, you know, the past thirty years, 629 00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:41,239 Speaker 1: it was possible to manage supply with demand because you 630 00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:44,320 Speaker 1: knew the demand was going to increase in the years ahead. 631 00:35:45,000 --> 00:35:48,040 Speaker 1: And that is no longer a certainty. If anything, we're 632 00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:50,919 Speaker 1: certain the demand is going to decline. So that's making 633 00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:53,400 Speaker 1: it a lot harder for private companies, but also for 634 00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:56,120 Speaker 1: OPEC members to know how much they need to invest, 635 00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:58,680 Speaker 1: to know how much they need to produce, because there's 636 00:35:58,760 --> 00:36:02,840 Speaker 1: great uncertainties about the availabilities of markets moving forward. If anything, 637 00:36:03,200 --> 00:36:05,520 Speaker 1: shortage of market is going to be a bigger problem 638 00:36:05,560 --> 00:36:08,439 Speaker 1: than shortage of supply. Imagine going back ten years ago 639 00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:11,359 Speaker 1: and saying we're going to have an eavy revolution and 640 00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:13,759 Speaker 1: the US is going to be this huge producer and 641 00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:15,919 Speaker 1: oil is going to get more expensive because of all 642 00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:18,000 Speaker 1: those things. That would have like broken so many minds, 643 00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:21,239 Speaker 1: but that's exactly what happened. Gregory Brew is such a 644 00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:23,440 Speaker 1: treat to have you on. I learned so much in 645 00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:26,240 Speaker 1: that forty minutes. I really appreciate you coming on oddlots. 646 00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:42,320 Speaker 1: Thank you so much of us great crazy. I really 647 00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:44,040 Speaker 1: I feel like I learned a lot in that last 648 00:36:44,280 --> 00:36:47,480 Speaker 1: oil history is fun. Yeah, and he Gregory is a 649 00:36:47,680 --> 00:36:50,560 Speaker 1: really good at talking about it and contextualizing it. But 650 00:36:50,640 --> 00:36:52,800 Speaker 1: I do want to start without that last point because 651 00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:55,680 Speaker 1: it is pretty wild. The thing. We had this huge 652 00:36:55,760 --> 00:36:58,080 Speaker 1: US oil boom in the last decade. It become the 653 00:36:58,080 --> 00:37:01,279 Speaker 1: biggest oil producer in the world, the e V Revolution, 654 00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:03,919 Speaker 1: which everyone expects is going to curb demand, and yet 655 00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:07,120 Speaker 1: here we are. But like the cost of gasoline surgery, 656 00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:10,200 Speaker 1: everyone was wrong. Everyone was wrong in all of the 657 00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:13,200 Speaker 1: most unexpected way. That's so weird. The other thing I 658 00:37:13,239 --> 00:37:16,600 Speaker 1: thought that really stood out to me was his point 659 00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:19,400 Speaker 1: about how we know that the US has come online 660 00:37:19,520 --> 00:37:23,120 Speaker 1: as a big oil producer, but actually they don't have 661 00:37:23,200 --> 00:37:26,840 Speaker 1: a lot of ways to control production, which causes problems 662 00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:29,040 Speaker 1: for the rest of the world. I mean, especially in 663 00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:32,320 Speaker 1: when we have the show revolution and then prices collapsed. 664 00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:34,360 Speaker 1: We saw a lot of that, but now it's the 665 00:37:34,360 --> 00:37:37,000 Speaker 1: opposite problem, right, like, how do we get everyone to 666 00:37:37,160 --> 00:37:39,480 Speaker 1: actually start pumping oil? Right? And you know there's a 667 00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:42,160 Speaker 1: lot of people we need to pump more oil in 668 00:37:42,200 --> 00:37:44,359 Speaker 1: the US. And why isn't the White House doing more 669 00:37:44,440 --> 00:37:47,719 Speaker 1: to boost domestic oil? And I don't think it's impossible 670 00:37:47,880 --> 00:37:49,920 Speaker 1: to think that the White House has levers to compull 671 00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:52,680 Speaker 1: that it hasn't. But there's no national It is not 672 00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:54,920 Speaker 1: like the countries where we say, okay, we're going to 673 00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:59,040 Speaker 1: expand our daily quota todd thousand more barrels like that. 674 00:37:59,160 --> 00:38:02,040 Speaker 1: There's just no went to be right, and telling private 675 00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:05,279 Speaker 1: companies what to do is not historically a very like 676 00:38:05,400 --> 00:38:09,960 Speaker 1: successful American political strategy. I think, um, that's fascinating, And 677 00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:13,960 Speaker 1: now I'm going to be following Guiana's economic trajectory for years. Well, 678 00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:16,080 Speaker 1: I think the cool thing about that and was really 679 00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:19,160 Speaker 1: helpful is we know that there are so many countries, 680 00:38:19,200 --> 00:38:22,360 Speaker 1: as Gregory talked about, that have gone through a similar 681 00:38:22,719 --> 00:38:24,920 Speaker 1: trajectory or a similar path, find a lot of oil, 682 00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:28,280 Speaker 1: figure out how to manage the relationship between the domestic 683 00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:31,319 Speaker 1: interests and the foreign multinationals interest So it'll be very 684 00:38:31,360 --> 00:38:33,719 Speaker 1: interesting to see if, with the knowledge of so much 685 00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:36,960 Speaker 1: history of other countries that have gone this route, whether 686 00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:40,759 Speaker 1: Guiana can maintain you know, there's like extremely rapid you 687 00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:43,280 Speaker 1: can i'm a growth, and whether it could be high quality, 688 00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:46,120 Speaker 1: well distributed growth. You know. The other thing I was 689 00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:50,680 Speaker 1: thinking about, one of the persistent commodity mysteries to me, 690 00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:54,120 Speaker 1: has always been Morocco and it's fertilizer reserves. I think 691 00:38:54,120 --> 00:38:56,880 Speaker 1: it has like the world's biggest supply of phosphates or something, 692 00:38:57,280 --> 00:39:01,080 Speaker 1: and yet it never actually seems to translate into a 693 00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:07,320 Speaker 1: significant economic boom. Let's do acc Moroccan fertilizer episode. Okay, alright, 694 00:39:07,360 --> 00:39:11,040 Speaker 1: anyone know any Moroccan phosphate du Yeah, please let us know. 695 00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:13,240 Speaker 1: Shall we leave it there? Let's leave it there? Okay. 696 00:39:13,440 --> 00:39:16,000 Speaker 1: This has been another episode of the Odd Blots podcast. 697 00:39:16,040 --> 00:39:18,400 Speaker 1: I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me on Twitter at 698 00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:21,120 Speaker 1: Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe Wisn't All. You can follow 699 00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:24,399 Speaker 1: me on Twitter at the Stalwart. Follow our guest Gregory Brew. 700 00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:28,120 Speaker 1: He's at g brew twenty four. Follow our producer Carmen 701 00:39:28,239 --> 00:39:31,440 Speaker 1: Rodriguez at Carmen Arman, and check out all of our 702 00:39:31,480 --> 00:39:36,040 Speaker 1: podcasts under the handle at Podcasts and for more Odd 703 00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:38,920 Speaker 1: Lots content, go to Bloomberg dot com slash odd Loves 704 00:39:38,960 --> 00:39:41,719 Speaker 1: Tracy and I blog there. We pushed the transcripts and 705 00:39:41,880 --> 00:39:44,279 Speaker 1: there's a once a week newsletter for listeners when we 706 00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:46,680 Speaker 1: talk about all the things and related topics that we 707 00:39:46,760 --> 00:40:15,080 Speaker 1: discussed on the show. Thanks for listening.