WEBVTT - Can Russia & China Be Stopped?  Mike Lyons Talks to Armstrong & Getty

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<v Speaker 1>The Armstrong and Getty show, no idea was it's ludicrous.

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<v Speaker 1>As far as Afghanistan withdrawal, I'm glad to see us

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<v Speaker 1>moving up. I think a random withdrawal just because you're

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<v Speaker 1>celebrating an anniversary is not the right decision. If we're

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<v Speaker 1>ready to go, then I'll be supportive. If we're not

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<v Speaker 1>ready to go, I'll be making that very clear. As

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<v Speaker 1>reaction to the announcement yesterday that we're pulling out of

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<v Speaker 1>Afghanistan on the twentieth anniversary of nine eleven, which seems weird,

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<v Speaker 1>but that's just one oh by the way, Colin Powell

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<v Speaker 1>said yesterday, and obviously he was um Secretary of State

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<v Speaker 1>at the beginning of the War of the Second warn

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<v Speaker 1>Iraq Uh he say, I'd say we've done all we

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<v Speaker 1>can do about Afghanistan. What are those troops being told

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<v Speaker 1>they're there for? It's time to bring it to an end.

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<v Speaker 1>That is a pretty good question. What would you tell

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<v Speaker 1>the troops are there for? But that's just one of

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<v Speaker 1>the many military challenges that we've got around the world.

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<v Speaker 1>One of the one of the reasons we are leaving

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<v Speaker 1>Afghanists Stan, I think, is Russia, China, iran other problems

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<v Speaker 1>that we have, and David French wrote a column yesterday.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm asking whether or not we're living in a moment,

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<v Speaker 1>that period of calm before the unexpected shattering nine eleven storm,

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<v Speaker 1>that we might be entering another era of great power conflict,

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<v Speaker 1>arguably unlike anything we've experienced in more than a generation.

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<v Speaker 1>I hope he's wrong, but he certainly may be right.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's talk to my clients military analyst about that. Mike

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<v Speaker 1>served the United States military in both the US and

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<v Speaker 1>Europe and Iraq with great distinction. He has been an

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<v Speaker 1>analyst for CBS, among other folks, and enjoins us. Now, Mike,

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<v Speaker 1>how are you, sir? Think that's great to be back

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<v Speaker 1>with you all good, Well, thanks, it's been too long

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<v Speaker 1>and it's a real pleasure to talk to you. So

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<v Speaker 1>a little hypothetical here. If you were the Secretary of

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<v Speaker 1>Defense and you were posed with the situation in on

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<v Speaker 1>the Ukrainian border with Plute Putin, You've got China acting up.

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<v Speaker 1>Iran is a problem as usual, UM Afghanistan. Which your

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<v Speaker 1>meeting do you schedule first in the morning to make

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<v Speaker 1>sure everybody's on the same page. Which feels the most

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<v Speaker 1>urgent to you. I think it's China only because they

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<v Speaker 1>have the most metal resources right now that are focused

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<v Speaker 1>in all the different facets of warfare and cyber as

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<v Speaker 1>well as things on the ground in Hong Kong, Taiwan

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<v Speaker 1>and places and what's what's happening there and events to

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<v Speaker 1>take place in China with the Olympics coming up. So

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<v Speaker 1>I think, UM, that is clearly the number one now

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<v Speaker 1>tactically on the ground. What's happening in Russia is not

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<v Speaker 1>good either with Ukraine, UM, but I think that's going

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<v Speaker 1>to be a regional conflict. One of the advantages of

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<v Speaker 1>the United States has right now is the president that's

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<v Speaker 1>just not an interventionalist. So you know, you guys are

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<v Speaker 1>talking about David French about the moment that might be

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<v Speaker 1>the case. But the question is whether or not we're

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<v Speaker 1>attacked on the homeland. I don't think that will happen.

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<v Speaker 1>The question is will be posed as to whether we'll

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<v Speaker 1>get involved, NATO get involved if something happens in Ukraine

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<v Speaker 1>and Russia. But but the the bottom line is China

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<v Speaker 1>is still the greatest threat that we still have strategically

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<v Speaker 1>as an emergent power. Boy, where do we start, UM, China?

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<v Speaker 1>If China were to move on Taiwan in some manner,

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<v Speaker 1>do we honor our agreement we've had since nineteen seventy nine,

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<v Speaker 1>Do we have to can we? Yeah, it's naval power

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<v Speaker 1>will will rule a day there, and China think that

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<v Speaker 1>they can actually hold their own in any kind of

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<v Speaker 1>naval engagement with us, based on how they've built their navy. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>I think I wouldn't call it a nine ten moment.

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<v Speaker 1>I'd call it maybe a ninety nine moment, where at

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<v Speaker 1>that point in the time, the world thought that the

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<v Speaker 1>French army was the greatest in the world, and no

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<v Speaker 1>one thought anything about the Germans. Um. You know, the

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<v Speaker 1>Chinese are if you look at their commercials, you look

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<v Speaker 1>at what they're advertising, what they do. They get up

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<v Speaker 1>every day and they think they're going to have a

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<v Speaker 1>war with someone. And so if they're going to do that,

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<v Speaker 1>they're not going to be afraid to go after us

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<v Speaker 1>with um, you know, even with our nable resources there.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's gonna take our allies to the Australians and

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<v Speaker 1>others within the regions of the Japanese. But the bottom

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<v Speaker 1>line is, I think if we if we have that

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<v Speaker 1>conflict that takes place on the sea, and our navy

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<v Speaker 1>is gonna get tested very mightily. Yeah, well, especially because

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<v Speaker 1>when I know you know this better than we do.

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<v Speaker 1>But it's a lot easier to defend a position than

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<v Speaker 1>to retake it. And and Taiwan is to China like

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<v Speaker 1>Martha's Vineyard is to the United States. I mean, it's

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<v Speaker 1>it's right off their coast. Yeah. Yeah, And it would

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<v Speaker 1>be a situation potentially like destroying it to save it,

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<v Speaker 1>which doesn't you know that's again Korean war mentality as well.

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<v Speaker 1>So um, it's just it's hard to say there's not

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<v Speaker 1>you know, there as an as a ground guy though

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<v Speaker 1>there's no other opposing fourth that exists inside of Taiwan,

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<v Speaker 1>so it would be taken very simply. The question is,

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<v Speaker 1>you know what happens, then what are the countries of

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<v Speaker 1>the world do? Then? I think nothing. I think there's

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<v Speaker 1>certain they're sort of fat to completes that are out

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<v Speaker 1>there right now, and that's one. The second one is

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<v Speaker 1>probably the don Vast region of Ukraine, and it's going

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<v Speaker 1>to get closer to Russia. We know that they already

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<v Speaker 1>control Crimea. So I think these are all FATA completes.

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<v Speaker 1>Whether or not the world wants to get involved. And again,

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<v Speaker 1>Joe Biden is not an at events and list, so

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<v Speaker 1>I don't see him getting involved. Wow, Okay, I was

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<v Speaker 1>just gonna ask before we get back into specifics, let's

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<v Speaker 1>let's do a little You're you're teaching a college class,

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<v Speaker 1>and in the topic today is mutual defense agreements? Are

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<v Speaker 1>that sort of thing? We have the treaty with the Taiwan,

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<v Speaker 1>We have a treaty through NATO with Ukraine. Are those

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<v Speaker 1>things worth the parchment they're written on? Really? Well, they

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<v Speaker 1>were when they were signed, you know, some of them

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<v Speaker 1>thirty years ago and beyond. But today they have not

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<v Speaker 1>been updated. We haven't updated our strategic limitations trees and

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<v Speaker 1>and and the like. They've all expired. And the countries

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<v Speaker 1>that sign those trees aren't the same as they worked it.

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<v Speaker 1>The only one really is is the United States. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>NATO would have to mobilize pretty significantly if it wanted

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<v Speaker 1>to go in and defend Ukraine. I don't think it's

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<v Speaker 1>a good idea to put NATO anywhere near Ukraine. UM,

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<v Speaker 1>that's right on the border of Russia. I mean, we

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<v Speaker 1>can't have admission and TORNATO being everybody except Russia. That's

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<v Speaker 1>just not gonna work. That's gonna That's the same reason

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<v Speaker 1>how World War One started, where history repeats itself all

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<v Speaker 1>over again. So I think that while that was a

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<v Speaker 1>great idea back in the nineties as they split away

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<v Speaker 1>from the old Soviet Union, the bottom line is Russia

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<v Speaker 1>can pretty much have its way in Ukraine. We all

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<v Speaker 1>know that. Everybody knows that, and if anything, and I

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<v Speaker 1>think Plutin knows that, Joe Biden is not an interventionalist,

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<v Speaker 1>which is why he's been moving towards what he's doing

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<v Speaker 1>in Ukraine right now. Well, that's why I really wanted

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<v Speaker 1>to have you on, is because you can speak to

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<v Speaker 1>and having the past on whether or not we can

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<v Speaker 1>do something. So whether or not we should, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>falls by the wayside. If someone like you says we can't.

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<v Speaker 1>The world can't stop this from happening, so why discuss it, right.

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<v Speaker 1>Simulations show that there's over four hundred thousand Russian troops

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<v Speaker 1>that are in proximity closer in proximity of the Ukraine

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<v Speaker 1>border that if they decided to roll into Ukraine and

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<v Speaker 1>even keep going further further west, they could take virtually

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<v Speaker 1>western Europe again in sixty hours. That's five days or whatever.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, live with the mass on that. It's to

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<v Speaker 1>the point where, yeah, and the only thing holding it

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<v Speaker 1>back is US nuclear weapons. And the question is whether

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<v Speaker 1>or not we would fire them, because then then we

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<v Speaker 1>start we open up that pendor to box and so

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<v Speaker 1>we really don't have that that strategic deterrence at the

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<v Speaker 1>tactical level. We have it at the strategic level. We

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<v Speaker 1>have it, you know, in in in space and destroying

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<v Speaker 1>each other's countries. But are we willing to give up

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<v Speaker 1>an east coast city just to protect Ukraine? And I'm

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<v Speaker 1>not I'm not sure we're gonna be boiling to do that.

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<v Speaker 1>Military analysts Mike Lions on the line. Mike, so you're

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<v Speaker 1>saying Russia could sweep across Europe, I mean, take Poland

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<v Speaker 1>and Romania, Slovakia, whatever, and and head toward Germany in

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<v Speaker 1>the space of five days. Yes, yeah, exactly, that's the stimulation.

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<v Speaker 1>And they would do it with Russian forces plus the

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<v Speaker 1>private military companies, the Wagner groups, the ones that the

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<v Speaker 1>little green men so to speak, that they have mobilized.

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<v Speaker 1>Now whether they could hold it, you know, again, we

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<v Speaker 1>create a World War two scenario where just like the

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<v Speaker 1>Germans going to Russian and then they get beat back there.

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<v Speaker 1>They would eventually be beaten back. It would be tremendous destruction.

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<v Speaker 1>Millions and millions of people are killed. They couldn't hold it,

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<v Speaker 1>but they can sure create tremendous amount of destruction there,

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<v Speaker 1>that's for sure. And think do you think Putin has

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<v Speaker 1>the slightest interest in anything like that. He's got interest

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<v Speaker 1>in Ukraine. I think that his desire is to return

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<v Speaker 1>that in his lifetime. Right, so he's now elected till

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<v Speaker 1>six and so he's got them. We've got to think

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<v Speaker 1>that the world believes that Russia has a declining power.

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<v Speaker 1>But as soon as the Germans and the Russians connect

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<v Speaker 1>that gas pipeline together and they know whether the Germans

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<v Speaker 1>completely relying on Russia, I just don't. That doesn't fall

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<v Speaker 1>into place for me as well. They're not a declining power.

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<v Speaker 1>They have nuclear weapons as well, they can threaten the

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<v Speaker 1>United States. I think he's gonna want at least get

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine back and put Ukraine back in that what he

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<v Speaker 1>calls the former Soviet Union. Well back to China, which

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<v Speaker 1>is a similar sort of argument. And you know the

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<v Speaker 1>Chinese officials at some level may hear this very interview

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<v Speaker 1>where they hear somebody like you say it's fade a

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<v Speaker 1>complete you know, more or less. Wouldn't be worth it

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<v Speaker 1>for us to try to stop China from taking Taiwan

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<v Speaker 1>because that's going to be the calculation on their part,

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<v Speaker 1>right whether or not we're willing to to to really

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<v Speaker 1>go to war over it, and I don't think we

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<v Speaker 1>probably are. We're not, and and it would cement China's

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<v Speaker 1>role as they want to be the priminente or in

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<v Speaker 1>the Pacific. What is the day what does the world

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<v Speaker 1>look like the day after China has taken Taiwan and

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<v Speaker 1>we say to Taiwan, sorry, I know we have an

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<v Speaker 1>agreement to you know, to protect you, but we're just

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<v Speaker 1>we're not. Yeah. No. It's then a lot of other

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<v Speaker 1>of our alliances, a lot of other things get called

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<v Speaker 1>on the question. I think, um, I do believe already

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<v Speaker 1>some of our this is not Donald Trump's fault, but

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<v Speaker 1>some of our alliances in NATO, for example, are tired

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<v Speaker 1>of the United States politics anyway. They're they're looking at

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<v Speaker 1>the fact that things change every four years. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>let's look at why we're coming out of Afghanistan, you know, Trump,

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<v Speaker 1>let's face it, he wanted to do this before the

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<v Speaker 1>military wouldn't let him do it. He said the data first,

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<v Speaker 1>he thought he was going to be president, he thought

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<v Speaker 1>it was going to happen. What Biden do? He basically

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<v Speaker 1>keeps the same plan, again showing me he's not an

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<v Speaker 1>interventional This keeps the same plan. He just puts it

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<v Speaker 1>on an AT eleven anniversary, which again I think is

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<v Speaker 1>dumb as well, because there's too many other things going

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<v Speaker 1>on that day. But the bottom lines, we're coming out

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<v Speaker 1>of Afghanistan, so we're gonna find out what happened. Then

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<v Speaker 1>we'll see what's gonna fill that back in. Well, final

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<v Speaker 1>question for me, Well, and and this is the speculation, obviously,

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<v Speaker 1>but we understand that, Well, what do you figure the

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<v Speaker 1>chances are that we're exchanging ordinance with a nation state

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<v Speaker 1>anytime soon, as opposed to a non governmental terrorist organization

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<v Speaker 1>or something like that, which is going on as we speak.

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<v Speaker 1>Many Americans forget that we're in dozens of countries, but

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<v Speaker 1>a state act, right, I don't think it's for a while.

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<v Speaker 1>I think if anything happens first, sequentially Russia goes first

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<v Speaker 1>into Ukraine before China does anything into Taiwan, um, although

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<v Speaker 1>we've got more of a chance diplomatically to try to

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<v Speaker 1>fend off what's gonna happen in China. I think that's

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<v Speaker 1>gonna happen first, and if that does happen, we do nothing.

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<v Speaker 1>Now we've already been warned. We try. We're moving ships

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<v Speaker 1>into the Black Sea. We're trying to again project our

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<v Speaker 1>power there. It's not gonna matter because even if even

0:11:06.679 --> 0:11:09.120
<v Speaker 1>if we get them there were they're still gonna do

0:11:09.160 --> 0:11:12.800
<v Speaker 1>what they're gonna do. My clients military analyst Mike Fabulous

0:11:12.920 --> 0:11:16.280
<v Speaker 1>is always we really appreciated. Great to talk to you, great,

0:11:16.480 --> 0:11:21.520
<v Speaker 1>thanks for having me. It's so weird in our current

0:11:21.600 --> 0:11:27.080
<v Speaker 1>world of media to talk to somebody who's so plane

0:11:27.160 --> 0:11:30.440
<v Speaker 1>spoken about the facts. It's not what he wants at all,

0:11:31.440 --> 0:11:34.200
<v Speaker 1>I guarantee it. He doesn't want this reality, but it's

0:11:34.240 --> 0:11:36.959
<v Speaker 1>the freaking reality. So he just lays it out as

0:11:37.000 --> 0:11:39.400
<v Speaker 1>this is what is and it's not through some sort

0:11:39.400 --> 0:11:42.720
<v Speaker 1>of ridiculous, childish partisan lens either. I'm gonna I don't

0:11:42.720 --> 0:11:44.959
<v Speaker 1>believe America backs down from anyone, you know, as the

0:11:45.000 --> 0:11:48.079
<v Speaker 1>sort of reaction you get from some quarters. What does

0:11:48.240 --> 0:11:50.840
<v Speaker 1>that that has nothing to do with reality? He's saying

0:11:51.120 --> 0:11:53.880
<v Speaker 1>the world can't stop Russia from doing that short of

0:11:53.880 --> 0:11:56.160
<v Speaker 1>a nuclear war. The world is not going to stop

0:11:56.280 --> 0:11:57.960
<v Speaker 1>China from doing what they want to do short of

0:11:57.960 --> 0:12:01.240
<v Speaker 1>a nuclear war. They're just not. This is why President's

0:12:01.280 --> 0:12:03.400
<v Speaker 1>age like dogs. And this is why I'm grateful that

0:12:03.480 --> 0:12:05.600
<v Speaker 1>we have such a vital young man in the office

0:12:05.720 --> 0:12:07.319
<v Speaker 1>right now. Oh wait a minute, that was back to

0:12:07.320 --> 0:12:09.960
<v Speaker 1>the partisanship to tell you what either one or both

0:12:10.000 --> 0:12:12.560
<v Speaker 1>of those events happen over the next five ten years.

0:12:12.640 --> 0:12:16.280
<v Speaker 1>The world is a different place than it was for

0:12:16.320 --> 0:12:19.560
<v Speaker 1>the past seventy by a lot. Change is the only

0:12:19.640 --> 0:12:23.040
<v Speaker 1>constant Jack, Did you know that? Yeah, I mean it's inevitable.

0:12:23.160 --> 0:12:25.040
<v Speaker 1>United States wasn't gonna, you know, get to do whatever

0:12:25.080 --> 0:12:27.320
<v Speaker 1>it wanted wherever it wanted forever. But it looks like

0:12:27.360 --> 0:12:29.960
<v Speaker 1>those days are over. Wow, that's sobering.