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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: President Donald Trump has been cranking up the pressure on India,

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Speaker 2: a country the US has courted as a strategic counterweight

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Speaker 2: against China. Last week, Trump announced a twenty five percent

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Speaker 2: tariff on India, a higher rate than many other major

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Speaker 2: economies in Asia. But he didn't stop there. This week,

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Speaker 2: he threatened to raise the levee even higher. His message

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Speaker 2: to India is clear, stop buying Russian oil.

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Speaker 1: If you look at India as much is of Russian oil,

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Speaker 1: it is substantial. It's about one point seven million battles

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Speaker 1: a day from Russia.

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Speaker 2: Shooty run Jensen is a Bloomberg reporter based in New Delhi.

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Speaker 2: He's covered Indian government and politics for nearly three decades.

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Speaker 2: Shooty says India has a simple rationale for its purchases

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Speaker 2: of Russian crude.

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Speaker 1: India's position has been very very Kia. The budgies of

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Speaker 1: energy is dictated by the markets. So forever there is

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Speaker 1: cheap oil, cheap energy, India will buy.

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Speaker 2: Trump's threats to India come just days ahead of an

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Speaker 2: August eighth deadline from Russia to reach a truce with Ukraine.

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Speaker 2: Here's Trump speaking to reporters about the consequences for Russia

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Speaker 2: if there isn't a peace deal by this Friday, well,

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Speaker 2: there'll be sanctions. But they seem to be pretty good

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Speaker 2: at avoiding sanctions. You know, there are wildly characters and

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Speaker 2: they're pretty good at avoiding sanctions.

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Speaker 1: So we'll see what happens.

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Speaker 2: To pile pressure on Moscow, the Trump administration is now

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Speaker 2: threatening what's known as secondary sanctions on countries that purchase

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Speaker 2: Russian energy, like India. But for India, these threats feel

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Speaker 2: a bit out of place, given that the country in

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Speaker 2: Russia have cultivated strong and stable ties for the last

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Speaker 2: seven decades.

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Speaker 1: Why as India's tigns with Russia come under the scrutiny.

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Speaker 1: India also doesn't understand why, because the ties with Russia

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Speaker 1: are not new. The fact that India has been buying

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Speaker 1: oil ever since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty two is not new. What went wrong is also

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Speaker 1: a question that is foxy Indian officials, diplomats and policymakers.

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Speaker 2: This is the Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm Wanha.

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Speaker 2: Every week we take you inside some of the world's

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Speaker 2: biggest and most powerful economies. And the markets, tycoons and

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Speaker 2: businesses that drive this ever shifting region. Today on the show,

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Speaker 2: India's thirst for Russian oil and its long standing romance

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Speaker 2: with Moscow, how that's straining India's relations with the US

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Speaker 2: and making the country a target for Trump. The US

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Speaker 2: has slapped twenty five percent tariffs on goods from India,

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Speaker 2: and President Trump this week threatened to substantially raise levies

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Speaker 2: over India's purchases of Russian oil. Bloomberg reporter Shooty run

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Speaker 2: and Sen says in India, officials are scratching their heads

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Speaker 2: over why India's ties with Russia have become targets for Trump.

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Speaker 1: Now there are no clear answers, so to say, within

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Speaker 1: India and the policy circles as well, because people and

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Speaker 1: government officials I have been speaking to are quite taken

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Speaker 1: aback or shocked to see the kind of reaction. It's

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Speaker 1: not at all new. India's purchase of Russian crude, Russian

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Speaker 1: energy is at least two years old start to the

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Speaker 1: Russia's invasion of Ukraine. You know, perhaps it is linked

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Speaker 1: to President trump frustration in not being able to get

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Speaker 1: the Russia Ukraine war to ent and since that has

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Speaker 1: failed India seems to be an unintended consequence and as

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Speaker 1: a result of which the entire India US relationship. Now

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Speaker 1: there is a huge question mark over that how.

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Speaker 2: Much oil does India buy from Russia and why.

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Speaker 1: If you look at India's purchase of Russian oil, it

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Speaker 1: is substantial, It's about between one thous and forty percent.

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Speaker 1: But at the same time point of time, much of

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Speaker 1: this purchase is spot buying. It is at the moment,

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Speaker 1: depending on the prices, whoever is cheaper. Before the invasion

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Speaker 1: of Ukraine and before the sanctions of the price gap

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Speaker 1: came in on Russian oil and more importantly, Europe stopped

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Speaker 1: buying it was minimal, if at all, India ever bought

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Speaker 1: Russian crude. After the invasion of Ukraine. When Europe stops

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Speaker 1: buying Russian crude and swings towards the Gulf, prices go

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Speaker 1: up and the amount of crude and gas available from

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Speaker 1: the Gulf reduces. India then swings towards Russia, which was

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Speaker 1: then offering a huge discountant continues to offer a discount.

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Speaker 2: And is that such a huge discount that India feels

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Speaker 2: like it needs to go to Russia And at the

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Speaker 2: same time antagonize the US and the international community, which

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Speaker 2: obviously has sanctions on Russian oil.

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Speaker 1: This is a question that very often has come up

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Speaker 1: in briefings, in policy discussions between reporters and the government,

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Speaker 1: and the assessment that India has is that if India

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Speaker 1: ware to stop buying Russian crude completely, shun and abundant it,

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Speaker 1: then the prices of crude more likely will be unsustainable

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Speaker 1: for India and its economic growth and many other countries

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Speaker 1: in the global South.

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Speaker 2: So you're saying that India's demand for crude is so

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Speaker 2: high that if it didn't buy from Russia, it would

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Speaker 2: then elevate the price of oil in the market.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, I mean India is one of the largest

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Speaker 1: importers of crude. I mean it imports more or less

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Speaker 1: majority about eighty percent of its requirement. So if these

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Speaker 1: countries are specifically indiawa better stopped, then the prices of

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Speaker 1: crude are going to go up. And that's been the

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Speaker 1: constant refrain and argument that we have seen coming from

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Speaker 1: the government.

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Speaker 2: Are there any signs that India is going to stop

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Speaker 2: buying oil from Russia at this point, No, we don't

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Speaker 2: have anything.

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Speaker 1: To say that India is going to stop buying Russia.

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Speaker 1: In fact, on the country, the government has made it

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Speaker 1: very clear that decision to buy oil is completely market driven.

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Speaker 1: There has been a very uncharacteristic and a very sharp

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Speaker 1: rebuttal that we have seen from India. If you look

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Speaker 1: at the statement that came from India, the statement says

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Speaker 1: the targeting of India is unjustified and unreasonable. So it

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Speaker 1: does feel that it's being singled out for no fault

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Speaker 1: of its own.

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Speaker 2: I want us to step back a little bit. Why

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Speaker 2: is it that the India Russia relationship is a close one.

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Speaker 2: What are the roots of that closeness and how has

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Speaker 2: that partnership evolved to where it is today.

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Speaker 1: Well, I mean the India Russia relationship, if you to

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Speaker 1: go back and briefly recapture at one level, stretches back

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Speaker 1: to the Cold War. And if you look at the

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Speaker 1: nineteen seventy one war between India and Pakistan, which is

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Speaker 1: a watershed in ties, the United States sided with Pakistan

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Speaker 1: on the country. You saw Soviet Russia at that point

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Speaker 1: of time coming out in support of India. That kind

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Speaker 1: of sealed the relationship.

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Speaker 2: So in some ways did the US support of Pakistan

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Speaker 2: then push India into Russia's arms very definitely.

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Speaker 1: India has been a nation that it avowned non alignment,

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Speaker 1: but it has leaned on Russia, then Soviet Russia and

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Speaker 1: now Russia is one of the countries that have helped

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Speaker 1: India in its industrial process of industrialization in the sense

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Speaker 1: it has helped set up state lights, It has helped

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Speaker 1: India set up nuclear poplants, It has helped India in agriculture,

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Speaker 1: has helped India in space research.

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Speaker 2: For seven decades, India has managed to keep a strong

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Speaker 2: and stable relationship with Russia while balancing its relationship with

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Speaker 2: China and the US. After the break, can India keep

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Speaker 2: juggling those balls in the air? And what's at stake

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Speaker 2: for Prime Minister in Marender Modi and US India ties.

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Speaker 2: The US is penalizing India's purchases of Russian oil and

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Speaker 2: weapons with a twenty five percent terraff freight, plus an

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Speaker 2: additional penalty that's not yet disclosed. The US is India's

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Speaker 2: largest trading partner and biggest export market for goods and services.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Shooty Runje and Sen says that the tariffs could

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Speaker 2: hurt India's economy and Prime Minister and a render modis

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Speaker 2: bracing the country for a possible hit.

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Speaker 1: Trade and taris will have an issue because there's a

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Speaker 1: cascading effect on the economy. The sectors that are likely

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Speaker 1: to be affected of the sectors that are dependent on

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Speaker 1: exports and therefore then has a very negative impact on

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Speaker 1: the growth of the Indian economy. What we have seen

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Speaker 1: is the government trying to move in the head of

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Speaker 1: time and take remedial measure. Recently, we heard the Prime

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Speaker 1: Minister of in addressing a political raleigh telling Indians that

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Speaker 1: you need to buy local stuff and that is important

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Speaker 1: because that's a way to keep the economy going should

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Speaker 1: it be hit by the tariffs, by the penalties. So

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Speaker 1: India has already started looking at how do you keep

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Speaker 1: the economy going protect the economy.

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Speaker 2: What does this turn of tone mean for Modi now

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Speaker 2: that the US is criticizing India heavily and slapped a

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Speaker 2: very high tariff.

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Speaker 1: This kind of a setback or an unraveling of a

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Speaker 1: high profile relationship between Prime Minister Narindromodi and President Trump

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Speaker 1: is going to be costly because Prime Minister has marketed

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Speaker 1: this to his followers, to his voters saying that it

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Speaker 1: is because of his government's policies and his own diplomacy.

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Speaker 1: And India is on such a sweet spot with the

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Speaker 1: United States. Now if everything way to turn sour, there

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Speaker 1: is going to be political cost. There is going to

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Speaker 1: be questions. Questions are already in fact being asked by

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Speaker 1: the opposition.

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Speaker 2: And what about the other personal stakes for Modi? Is

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Speaker 2: it important for him to be able to provide cheap

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Speaker 2: energy for the country And if that doesn't come true,

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Speaker 2: is he in danger?

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Speaker 1: See if cheap energy is not there, or if energy

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Speaker 1: becomes costlier than what it is already. Energy is already

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Speaker 1: quite costly in India. If it becomes even more costly,

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Speaker 1: that's going to have an impact on the economy, and

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Speaker 1: that's going to have an impact on the inflation. That's

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Speaker 1: therefore going to have an impact on or decide how

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Speaker 1: the central bank easn up money or tighten money control,

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Speaker 1: which is then going to have an impact on investments, jobs,

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Speaker 1: and then it is going to cascade down to unemployment

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Speaker 1: and money in the hands of people. So very very definitely,

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Speaker 1: energy is going to have an impact. And India as

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Speaker 1: a country is very sensitive to inflation.

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Speaker 2: And I wonder if that's a big reason driving India's

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Speaker 2: defiance that is not going to step down from buying

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Speaker 2: Russian oil at this point, Yes.

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Speaker 1: Because that is definitely one of the since that India

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Speaker 1: is defined in the sense it doesn't want to immediately

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Speaker 1: comply with the United States and stop buying Russian oil

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Speaker 1: because it does impact the economy. It does impact the

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Speaker 1: economy very negatively and the consequences of which are many fold.

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Speaker 1: And therefore, as a political leader privateism mode would want

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Speaker 1: to protect his votes, his constituency, his ability to win elections.

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Speaker 2: China, of course, also has close ties to Russia. Does

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Speaker 2: India feel like it's being picked on in that the

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Speaker 2: US hasn't gone after China? People in India pointing out

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Speaker 2: the fact that the US hasn't done anything about China,

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Speaker 2: hasn't threatened China because of its Russian ties or its

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Speaker 2: purchases of Russian oil.

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Speaker 1: If you look at the broad figures, China Russia's trade

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Speaker 1: is over two hundred million dollars. In comparison, the India

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Speaker 1: Russia trade is not as big. So it's quite clearly

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Speaker 1: that the China Russia trade relationship is much deeper, much bigger,

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Speaker 1: but Why has China been left out? Why as India

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Speaker 1: been singled out? It's very obvious that China has more

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Speaker 1: leverage and what of these leverages could be the rare earth,

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Speaker 1: So the leverages that China has is bigger, higher, and

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Speaker 1: therefore the United States may not have gone after China,

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Speaker 1: whereas India has a soft target.

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Speaker 2: Still, India has had a knack for doing this geopolitical

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Speaker 2: balancing act between Russia, China and the US for decades. Now,

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Speaker 2: can India still continue to juggle and keep those balls

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Speaker 2: up in the air, especially with these higher stakes now

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Speaker 2: at play.

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Speaker 1: Well, India has been able to juggle, and that is

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Speaker 1: something in the past we have seen Foreign Minister Subramani

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Speaker 1: of Jishanka taking great pleasure in saying that India's diplomacy

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Speaker 1: can juggle multiple balls at the same point of time.

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Speaker 1: But President Trump has injected a lot of unpredictability in

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Speaker 1: foreign policy.

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Speaker 2: Now, Shureti, how do you think this might all play out?

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Speaker 1: Very difficult to say how this is going to play out.

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Speaker 1: At the moment, it looks, you know, the relationship looks

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Speaker 1: to be at a bad place. But this is not

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Speaker 1: the first time India relations with the United States have

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Speaker 1: gone through back patches, and they've always recovered. They're both

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Speaker 1: matured democracies. If past is any indicator, this will also pass.

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Speaker 1: This will not be the defining, so to say, the

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Speaker 1: defining moment, or the defining even of the India US relationship.

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Speaker 2: This is The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm wanha.

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