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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go spreading in the corner.

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Speaker 1: Ten seconds of.

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Speaker 3: Aninga just go showing under the basket, under the basket, it's.

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Speaker 1: The true for the wind, God make a miracle.

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Speaker 4: I chuck the water.

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Speaker 2: Hit that one from the parking lot.

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Speaker 4: What's up the gener nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 4: on Campus Podcast presented by Bett MGM. This is the

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Speaker 4: weekend college basketball betting recap and early week preview. I'm

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Speaker 4: stuck in joining me as always. Alright, guys, Mike Calvares

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Speaker 4: and Craig Wodell, got a lot to get to, gentlemen,

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Speaker 4: we will talk a little. We'll talk the card's not

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Speaker 4: great tonight, but we'll talk a little Monday Tuesday night hoops.

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Speaker 4: We will recap the weekend. If there's any rants I

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Speaker 4: I know I have one waiting, we'll get to those.

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Speaker 4: Then we'll talk a little by sell Big twelve. A

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Speaker 4: lot of hot takes out there is the Big twelve?

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Speaker 4: As good as people say, where's Kansas? I'm curious you

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Speaker 4: guys thoughts on that after a loss at West Virginia.

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Speaker 4: But let's start with just a quick recap of what

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Speaker 4: you saw this weekend. You can take this any which

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Speaker 4: way you want. Greg, I'll throw it to you first.

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Speaker 4: What's going on, brother, and congress your lines.

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Speaker 2: By the way, Thank you man. Vibes are good in

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Speaker 2: the Waddell household these days. They're good for at least

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Speaker 2: six more nights and then I'm ready for my imminent doom.

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Speaker 2: That's how I feel right now.

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Speaker 4: Two things alive. Just just keep advancing, surviving, advance.

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Speaker 2: Keep breathing, baby. This weekend in college basketball, there was

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Speaker 2: a storyline that I found myself gravitating toward with a

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Speaker 2: couple of different teams. That was a common thread, and

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Speaker 2: it's teams that I've liked this season got really key

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Speaker 2: pieces back that might completely change their ceiling. Illinois is

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Speaker 2: the obvious one. Arren Shannon Junior's return. He was reinstated

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Speaker 2: on Friday. That was a big time surprise. A lot

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Speaker 2: of people did not expect him to play again this

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Speaker 2: season with the pending rape charge. Obviously that people feel

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Speaker 2: very differently about that, and we don't need to talk

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Speaker 2: about the politics of that and the situation. It's a

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Speaker 2: scary situation. With that said, he's one.

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Speaker 4: Of the best, but we won't go there.

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Speaker 2: It was weird. Man, it was weird, and I think

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Speaker 2: Illinois fans know it was weird. But here we are.

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Speaker 2: They're gonna get torched on the road everywhere they go

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Speaker 2: in the rest of the Big Ten. Play. With that said,

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Speaker 2: he's one of the best three players in the country. Like,

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Speaker 2: this kid's a monster. And you saw at the moment

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Speaker 2: he stepped back on the court, it was like electric transition.

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Speaker 2: He thread had two alley oop assists to Coleman Hawkins

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Speaker 2: in the first minute that he was on the floor.

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Speaker 2: I really liked this Illinois team. I was buying them

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Speaker 2: without Shannon because I thought guys like Marcus Damask took

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Speaker 2: step forwards. Quincy Garia had a double double last night,

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Speaker 2: and I think in the short time he was away

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Speaker 2: from the team, you saw some of those guys blossom

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Speaker 2: into better players that are a lot more confident. Where

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Speaker 2: now you've got guys playing fourth option roles on Illinois

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Speaker 2: that are capable of being second option roles Without Shannon,

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Speaker 2: this is a dangerous team to me. This is a

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Speaker 2: team that could make a Final four, kind of dispel

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Speaker 2: some of the Brad Underwood in March narratives that are

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Speaker 2: out there. And I was really impressed with their return

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Speaker 2: because it would have been easy to kind of hit

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Speaker 2: a bump in the road and have a day where

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Speaker 2: vibes were a little off. You're bringing your best player

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Speaker 2: off the bench. They didn't really do that. They smoked

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Speaker 2: Rutgers by twenty three at home, and then the other

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Speaker 2: team that brought a guy back. Different situation obviously, But

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Speaker 2: Wake Forest is a team that I've really believed in

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Speaker 2: offensively this year. In the ACC they got to Mara

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Speaker 2: Monsanto back, who was one of the most elite shooters

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Speaker 2: in the country last year. This kid comes off the bench.

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Speaker 2: He shoots six threes in eleven minutes and makes four

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Speaker 2: of them. Like, I just love the archetype of the

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Speaker 2: green light guy. Everybody on Wait Forest can shoot. They're

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Speaker 2: thirteen and five, five and two at ACC play, and

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Speaker 2: I think this could be the year Steve Forbes team

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Speaker 2: finally gets to the NCAA tournament and Monsanto will be

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Speaker 2: a big.

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Speaker 4: Part of it. Yeah, he changes the complexion and the

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Speaker 4: ceiling of their offense. But and I agree with you

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Speaker 4: on Shannon, I don't. I hadn't even looked. I didn't

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Speaker 4: even look at the if there was a change in

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Speaker 4: the futures market, but I probably should have looked into

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Speaker 4: it a little more. We won't get into the details

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Speaker 4: of his legal case and all that, but with like

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Speaker 4: the upside of him potentially returning, and you know, Illinois

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Speaker 4: was playing well even without him, but just having him,

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Speaker 4: he's one of the best isolation players in the country. Like,

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Speaker 4: just give him the ball one on one against the

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Speaker 4: league defenses, He's gonna score. He can just take over

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Speaker 4: a game, get you out of droughts. He's that type

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Speaker 4: of player that can kind of drag you through a

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Speaker 4: game where everyone else isn't really hitting. So yeah, I agree,

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Speaker 4: Illinois is very dangerous. I would say, you know, and

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Speaker 4: I agree with your on Wake, But the only team

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Speaker 4: I can't beat, I should just give up. I should

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Speaker 4: have just bet him to win the national title because they

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Speaker 4: cover every game. They beat me every game is North Carolina.

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Speaker 4: I should just bet them and they're gonna win it all.

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Speaker 4: But I think they play wig Forest coming up here,

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Speaker 4: so I'll be interested to see that. But my ran

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Speaker 4: before I throw it to you, Mike is Maryland.

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Speaker 2: Remember this is a safe space.

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Speaker 3: You know what pisses me off most of all.

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Speaker 4: Okay, you're ranting now.

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Speaker 2: Baby, I'm ran why not. You gotta let it out somehow.

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Speaker 4: I mean, look, their defense was great in the second half,

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Speaker 4: but we all had to endure that horrendous half of basketball.

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Speaker 4: But their defense was amazing. Jamiir Young, I know he

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Speaker 4: has to do so much because I mean, there's half

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Speaker 4: the guys on the roster just should be on the sidelines.

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Speaker 4: They should be like three on five, and it's what

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Speaker 4: it looks like at times. We had a horrendous final

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Speaker 4: five minutes of that game, turnovers. Couldn't even get his

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Speaker 4: foot behind the line, which was the difference in the cover.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, Maryland again, two teams that tortured me. I

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Speaker 4: bet on Maryland, Maryland doesn't cover. I bet against North

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Speaker 4: Carolina and they cover. So that's my rant for the weekend. Mike,

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Speaker 4: let me throw it to you.

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Speaker 3: Well, first, Greg, you're triggering me with the Yukon swag,

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Speaker 3: because man, I haven't been a part.

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Speaker 1: Of a bad beat like that.

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Speaker 3: In a minute, having Yukon minus three and the quarter

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Speaker 3: nothing but Nett barely touched the net.

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Speaker 4: On released benest Ye exactly. I was exactly that's going

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Speaker 4: right in.

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Speaker 1: That was brutal.

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Speaker 3: I'm going to basically admit that I'm late to the

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Speaker 3: Auburn party, and I'm now a believer in what they

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Speaker 3: can bring to.

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Speaker 1: The table, at least in the SEC title race.

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Speaker 3: This is my takeaway from the weekend. I'm really excited

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Speaker 3: about Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky down the stretch. Who's going to

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Speaker 3: win the regular season title? When you look at Auburn,

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Speaker 3: it's Broom, It's Williams in the front court. As a tandem,

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Speaker 3: They're averaging twenty eight, fourteen and five stocks per game.

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Speaker 3: And now Auburn is top ten in offensive end defensive

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Speaker 3: justice efficiency. The only other team in the country that

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Speaker 3: can claim that is Arizona. But my question here for Auburn,

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Speaker 3: because I do think it's going to be Tennessee or

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Speaker 3: Kentucky winning the SEC regular season title. But the question

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Speaker 3: here is who emerges for the Tigers in that guard rotation.

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Speaker 3: They have lots of guys who play, you know, around

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Speaker 3: twenty minutes per game. Who's going to start to take

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Speaker 3: on a little bit more of the scoring oomph when

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Speaker 3: it gets into February, when it gets into March madness.

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Speaker 3: Because all the way a Time still plays like a freshman.

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Speaker 1: You can't blame him.

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Speaker 3: Baker Mazara disappears completely, And then I asked, could Denver

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Speaker 3: Jones be the guy that he was at FIU even

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Speaker 3: for a night, like could he even just do that

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Speaker 3: like once or twice a month and score fifteen or

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Speaker 3: twenty points because he hasn't. So that's my only question

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Speaker 3: about Auburn. But I have to admit I didn't see

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Speaker 3: them being in this rare fight air at this point,

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Speaker 3: and I think they deserve it very quickly. On the

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Speaker 3: rants coaches on the floor. This is not so complicated

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Speaker 3: as someone who covers college football. In college basketball, college football,

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Speaker 3: the referees cannot wait to call the most ticki tac

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Speaker 3: shit eject players do replays get him thrown out for

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Speaker 3: the second half of the next game. College basketball, they're like, well,

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Speaker 3: what can we do? You know, Archie Miller is only

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Speaker 3: on the floor with his foot on the goddamn three

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Speaker 3: point line, playing transition defense, waving his arms around. It

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Speaker 3: should be an auto ejection and it should be an

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Speaker 3: automatic suspension for the next game. It's just not complicated

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Speaker 3: at all. Basically, if both of your feet are on

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Speaker 3: the floor in the court the where they're playing the

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Speaker 3: game during a possession and anyone comes into contact with

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Speaker 3: you auto ejection. This is like, I know it's funny

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Speaker 3: and I laugh along with it, but I'm watching that

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Speaker 3: dating game and I'm like, what the fuck are these

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Speaker 3: referees looking at There can't be any excuse other than

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Speaker 3: they're just letting the coaches get away with it. And

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Speaker 3: the final piece of it is like them throwing their

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Speaker 3: arms up, whether it's Shaka Smart or Archie, like, do

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Speaker 3: they really think that that helps? Like, if you're on

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Speaker 3: the floor, you're like, oh, that's right, I need to

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Speaker 3: be playing defense because my coach, you know, looks like

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Speaker 3: a cartoon character.

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Speaker 1: So that's my rant.

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Speaker 3: I've absolutely had it, and I'm just waiting for a

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Speaker 3: game to actually be impacted or somebody to get hurt

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Speaker 3: trip over a coach. Like i gotta say, if I

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Speaker 3: was a player and I'm in the corner, I'm waving

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Speaker 3: my elbows around, I'd love to catch one of those

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Speaker 3: guys in the face to be like, you're in in

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Speaker 3: my kitchen at this point, so it's on you.

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Speaker 2: It's a good reminder that ninety percent of college coaches

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Speaker 2: are ego driven lunatics like I sometimes forget that this

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Speaker 2: is the best use case of that in a long

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Speaker 2: time for me.

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Speaker 4: Well, yeah, I mean this is I ran about this

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Speaker 4: all the time in sports we make rules. We were

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Speaker 4: reactive when we make new rules instead of being proactive.

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Speaker 4: So look like look at the NFL. Right, I said

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Speaker 4: for years, we're gonna there's gonna be a roughing the

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Speaker 4: passer call that is so bad that like we'll cost

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Speaker 4: the team a Super Bowl. And then we'll say, okay,

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Speaker 4: we can review roughing the passer. Right, there was the

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Speaker 4: PI and then we said, okay, you can review PI.

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Speaker 4: Get in front of this rule, like national title, a

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Speaker 4: coach runs out trips a kid, and then we just

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Speaker 4: decide a national title because we don't have this rule

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Speaker 4: in place. It is so simple to put a rule

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Speaker 4: in place because the coach should be out in the

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Speaker 4: three point line. Yes, you're at it's crazy. You know

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Speaker 4: you're all to get back to your Auburn take though,

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Speaker 4: is Yeah, And I think Pearl's done a tremendous shop.

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Speaker 4: I had a huge future at a crazy price, and

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Speaker 4: I'm in twenty nineteen and people forget they should have

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Speaker 4: beat Virginia. There was the travel. We won't get into

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Speaker 4: that whole game. It was four years ago. Sorry number

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Speaker 4: five years. I'm still not over. But uh, I just

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Speaker 4: I don't know if i'd trust their guards enough to

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Speaker 4: close out a game against an elite team. They're in

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Speaker 4: the discussion for sure, and they're electric and when they

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Speaker 4: are hammering teams, they can hammer you. But I don't

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Speaker 4: know if I trust their guards to close out like

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Speaker 4: an Elite eight game against like Yukon for example. Greg,

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Speaker 4: what are your thoughts on the alburn backcourt and they're ceiling?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I'm more on your side, stuck. I

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Speaker 2: will admit with Mike, I have been a huge Auburn

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Speaker 2: skeptic and I'm willing to eat crow on that. They're

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Speaker 2: clearly a good basketball team. They're clearly an NCAA tournament team.

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Speaker 2: They're clearly a team that can make the second weekend

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Speaker 2: or beyond of the NCAA Tournament. With that said, I'm

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Speaker 2: not gonna believe this is like a Final four contender

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Speaker 2: unless Aiden Holloway is really really playing well and he

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Speaker 2: hasn't been bad by any means, but a lot of

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Speaker 2: single digit scoring nights going back to the beginning of

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Speaker 2: January or to the beginning of December, from him. Really,

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Speaker 2: it's been two months now where he just hasn't ben

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Speaker 2: in stride offensively. He's a guy who takes a lot

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Speaker 2: of tough shots. Thirty five percent from three on the

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Speaker 2: type of threes that he takes is honestly pretty good.

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Speaker 2: Give him credit. He's limited turnovers, but to me, he

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Speaker 2: has to be like an every night, twelve to fifteen

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Speaker 2: points a game guy for me to really buy them offensively,

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Speaker 2: and if you go through it, like give them credit

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Speaker 2: for taking care of business. The only team that they've

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Speaker 2: played that I'm confident will make the NCAA tournament, right,

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Speaker 2: and that's it, and that's going to change here very soon.

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Speaker 2: So I'm willing to give it one more week at

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Speaker 2: least see what they do on the road against Alabama

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Speaker 2: and Mississippi State before we give them their flowers.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that I agree with the Auburn is

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Speaker 4: much better than I hadn't suspend it, and they you

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Speaker 4: do deserve to get credit for blowing teams out of

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Speaker 4: the water as they've done, but they've had a very

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Speaker 4: easy conference slate so far, and yeah, we'll learn a

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Speaker 4: lot more about them over the next week. Road games

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Speaker 4: against Alabama, Mississippi state. We saw Alabama. Alabama was kind

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Speaker 4: of in the same position as Auburn hadn't really played

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Speaker 4: no one in the SEC questions about their defense. They

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Speaker 4: go to Tennessee and they give up what ninety one.

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Speaker 4: So we'll learn a lot more about Auburn, but definitely

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Speaker 4: way better than I I anticipated. This podcast is probably

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Speaker 4: desented by bet MGM.

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Speaker 5: He's bonus code action when signing up to get up

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Speaker 5: to one hundred and fifty eight dollars in bonus bets

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Speaker 5: when you bet five dollars for new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana,

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Speaker 5: I will Kentucky, the Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia,

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Speaker 5: West Virginia, and Wyoming. Termscuses apply. Must be twenty one

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Speaker 5: or older. Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler.

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Speaker 4: Let's shift to the Big twelve, do a conference a

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Speaker 4: week and we do a little buy sell. I'm curious

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Speaker 4: to see if which way Greg's going to play this game?

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Speaker 4: Is he buying low? Buying high? Keeps us on our toes.

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Speaker 4: So I'll throw out to Greg, first, Big twelve do

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Speaker 4: buy sell?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I do like to keep you guys on your toes.

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Speaker 2: You know this. Now are a couple of weeks into this.

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Speaker 2: I think I'm going to be a little by the

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Speaker 2: book here this week. I'm going to start by selling

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Speaker 2: Kansas State. I'm selling high with the Wildcats, Jerome Tang's team.

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Speaker 2: I love Jerome Tang. I want to get that out

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Speaker 2: the way. I do think he's one of the best

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Speaker 2: coaches in the country. For any of these blue blood

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Speaker 2: schools that might have an opening soon, he would be

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Speaker 2: my first phone call. I think he has a really

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Speaker 2: high ceiling for the next couple of decades in this sport.

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Speaker 2: With that said, this particular team I'm not a believer in.

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Speaker 2: I'm not a believer in the individual pieces. I think

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Speaker 2: Tyler Perry's been all right. He's not Marquise Noel by

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Speaker 2: any means. Arthur Kaluma, I've had a joke for years

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Speaker 2: he's either the best bad college basketball player or the

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Speaker 2: worst good college basketball player. I think he is officially good,

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Speaker 2: but he's still very low on the scale of good

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Speaker 2: college basketball players. To me, I don't trust those guys

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Speaker 2: to run an offense against the best teams in the

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Speaker 2: Big twelve.

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Speaker 4: And yeah, they have the weakest conference strength of schedule

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Speaker 4: so far.

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Speaker 2: That's the thing. Here's the number on that stock. Four

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Speaker 2: of their five games us far have come against teams

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Speaker 2: outside the Ken Palm Top thirty. That's in conference play.

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Speaker 2: Four of their final thirteen games this season come against

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Speaker 2: teams outside the Ken Palm Top thirty. So like we're

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Speaker 2: gonna have a root awakening very soon. Give them credit

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Speaker 2: for surviving. In fact, the fact that they have been

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Speaker 2: surviving this season. They're five to zero in overtime games,

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Speaker 2: is the most remarkable thing about them. But I think

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Speaker 2: this is going to crash down to earth very quickly.

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Speaker 2: They're on the road twice this week, Iowa State in Houston.

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Speaker 2: My strong expectation will be that they lose both of

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Speaker 2: those games. They're going to be around ten point dogs

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Speaker 2: in both, if not more. I think we're going to

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Speaker 2: look at this team completely differently a week from now

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Speaker 2: than we do right now. So I'm going to sell

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Speaker 2: the Wildcats and then from a buy perspective, Baylor is

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Speaker 2: the team I've narrowed in on. They lost to this

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Speaker 2: week both on the road, Kansas State and overtime. Like

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Speaker 2: we said, Texas was the other one Texas took a

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Speaker 2: buzzer beater from Tyres Hunter. He went coast to coast

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Speaker 2: and him credit made a big play, But you know

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Speaker 2: it kind of two games. I would circle that you

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Speaker 2: win the Kansas State game if you just shoot anything

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Speaker 2: better than five for twenty eight from three. That's what

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Speaker 2: they shot. This is one of the best shooting teams

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Speaker 2: in the country. Is it hard to shoot on the road, Yes,

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Speaker 2: but if they don't have an aberration night, they probably

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Speaker 2: win that game. And then they bounce back shot fifty

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Speaker 2: percent from three on the road against Texas. Texas played

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Speaker 2: really well as well. Ray J Dennis for Baylor are

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Speaker 2: only two points on two shots in that game. That's

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Speaker 2: the quietest performance that he's had all season. Kind of

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Speaker 2: some outlier stuff there. I was actually pretty impressed with

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Speaker 2: the way they grinded and played in both of those games.

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Speaker 2: This is a team who's still undefeated at home. They've

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Speaker 2: got the new arena. In my opinion, I think you

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Speaker 2: can make an argument Baylor has the best offense in

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Speaker 2: the country. They are the best three point shooting team

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Speaker 2: in the country by percentage right now forty two percent

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Speaker 2: as a team, and kind of flip side of Kansas State.

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Speaker 2: I think their schedule does open up some opportunities for them.

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Speaker 2: They have road games against two of the worst teams

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Speaker 2: in this conference coming up UCF and West Virginia in

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Speaker 2: the middle of February. A lot of their tough games

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Speaker 2: on the schedule the rest of the season are at home.

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Speaker 2: I think that boats really well. So I'm gonna scoop

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Speaker 2: up Baylor. They're kind of going under the radar for me.

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Speaker 2: Three and two in that pack with Kansas and with Houston.

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Speaker 2: If I'm picking one, I believe in most I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: take Scott Drews Bears.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, the Baylors Baylor are still their defense stills major shotes.

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Speaker 4: I mean, and Texas too. I mean two years ago

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Speaker 4: these were two of the most elite defenses in the country.

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Speaker 4: They definitely have holes. But I completely agree with you

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Speaker 4: on Kansas State. I mean, not only five in zer

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Speaker 4: one overtime, two of them were at went home against

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Speaker 4: Oral Roberts in North Alabama. And then you mentioned the

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Speaker 4: bat Baylor shooting threes. Teams are shooting twenty five percent

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Speaker 4: from three against them, and they go under screens. It's

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Speaker 4: not like all they care about stopping the three so

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Speaker 4: they've been extremely fortunate in close games their schedule. Three

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Speaker 4: point shooting against and they turn the ball over incessantly.

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Speaker 4: Who are they playing next? Houston and Iowa State? I

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Speaker 4: don't know what are they? One and two in forced

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Speaker 4: turn of a percentage like that is the last Those

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Speaker 4: are the two last teams that you want to play

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Speaker 4: when you can't take care of the ball. So I

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Speaker 4: completely agree with you. I also think are goom To

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Speaker 4: State will get them in stillwater when they play again.

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Speaker 4: I'll be looking for to faith in there as well.

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Speaker 4: So that was the team my ad circled as a

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Speaker 4: cell spot. So I think Greg, we're roindally on the

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Speaker 4: same page with selling. But let me throw out to

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Speaker 4: Mike by Big.

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Speaker 1: Twelve, all three of us on case State, that was

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Speaker 1: the obvious cell here. I just have a few stats

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Speaker 1: to add in.

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Speaker 3: There's three cardinal sins from the Wildcats. They can't shoot

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Speaker 3: the two hundred and sixtieth and three point shooting percentage,

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Speaker 3: hundred and ninetieth and shooting percentage overall.

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Speaker 1: They struggle on the defensive.

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Speaker 3: Class two hundred and seventy first in defensive rebounty percentage,

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Speaker 3: and they turn it over a ton they're dead last

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Speaker 3: in the Big twelve three hundred and thirty ninth nationally.

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Speaker 1: One of those three things.

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Speaker 4: Too, those like a twenty three percent rate and conference.

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Speaker 3: Play that's wild, like that's eventually gonna bite you, and

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Speaker 3: as soon as the competition gets a little stiffer, it's

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Speaker 3: absolutely going to happen. And what's interesting is in terms

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Speaker 3: of recency bias, yes, they're one straight up in Big

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Speaker 3: twelve play four and one against the spread. I'm hoping

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Speaker 3: that creates some lucrative numbers to fade them in the

390
00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:08,359
Speaker 3: next two weeks that the market isn't super sharp and

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Speaker 3: immediately bounces back on them.

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Speaker 1: For the buying team, though, I'm gonna go TCU.

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Speaker 3: They got close losses to Kansas by two on the

394
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Speaker 3: road at Sincy by four, Iowa State by one.

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Speaker 1: They beat Oklahoma, they.

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Speaker 3: Beat Houston, and it's kind of like the you know,

397
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Speaker 3: inverse image of why I'm fading k State, why I'm

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Speaker 3: buying on TCU.

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Speaker 1: They can really shoot their twenty fourth.

400
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Speaker 3: And shooting percentage, they can defend their sixty third in

401
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Speaker 3: opponent shooting efficiency. They're strong on the offensive glass, sixteenth

402
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Speaker 3: in offense read bounding percentage, and they forced a ton

403
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Speaker 3: of turnover sixteen per game.

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Speaker 1: And the one thing, the one.

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Speaker 3: Stat that this is true of the last few years

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Speaker 3: for TCU, their special in one category. They lead the

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Speaker 3: nation in fast break points by a large margin, twenty

408
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Speaker 3: two points per game. Really, to me, it just comes

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Speaker 3: down to them being able to get over the hump

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Speaker 3: and get back into that you know, four or five

411
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Speaker 3: six conversation of the Big twelve Ken Jamir Nelson Junior

412
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Speaker 3: provides stability scoring from the point. He's been way too

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Speaker 3: up and down this year, lots of turnovers lately, but

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Speaker 3: when you look at how he played last year at Delaware,

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Speaker 3: his potential. I think he could turn it around. But

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Speaker 3: that to me is the difference between a good team

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Speaker 3: that makes the tournament a team that gets the second weekend.

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Speaker 3: It's all on Nelson Junior.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, they were I got to give credit to TCU.

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Speaker 4: I mean, look, they were playing I would stay at

421
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Speaker 4: home without LIPSI you should win that game. But they

422
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Speaker 4: were down twenty also and then cut it to one.

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Speaker 4: What do they have thirty turnovers in that game, which

424
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Speaker 4: was a little bit. I know, I was say it

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Speaker 4: will turn you over, but I also I'm just gonna throw.

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Speaker 4: Just from a betting perspective, I you know, I bet

427
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Speaker 4: them on Saturday and it worked out. This is kind

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Speaker 4: of the by you know, even though I'm selling Kansas

429
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Speaker 4: State and buying I think I'm gonna buy Oklahoma State.

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Speaker 4: Just did that and this game on Saturday. But I

431
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Speaker 4: think Okhoma State will have just as a dog. I

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Speaker 4: think those lines will be just a little bit, a

433
00:19:56,920 --> 00:19:59,960
Speaker 4: little bit inflated. So I think that there's opportunities maybe

434
00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:03,760
Speaker 4: against TCU. I want to see where the market goes.

435
00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:08,119
Speaker 4: They've had a tough schedule. They're a little better shooting

436
00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:10,639
Speaker 4: team than what they've shot recently. They can still defend

437
00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:13,639
Speaker 4: the rim. So when you play TCU, TCU, what what

438
00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:15,920
Speaker 4: do they want to do? Get to the rim, Get

439
00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:17,800
Speaker 4: to the rim, get to the room. Oklahoma State still

440
00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:21,200
Speaker 4: is an elite defense in the interior. So I think

441
00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:23,359
Speaker 4: there'll be some opportunities to bed Oklahoma State. Greg anything

442
00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:25,160
Speaker 4: you want to add on anything in the Big twelve.

443
00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:28,440
Speaker 2: No, my only fear with Oklahoma State. I like your

444
00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:30,639
Speaker 2: angle on them. My only fear is that when they lose,

445
00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:34,080
Speaker 2: they tend to lose huge, right like the margins are

446
00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:36,879
Speaker 2: just they get ran out of the gym now like

447
00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:40,639
Speaker 2: Baylor overtime at home, solid performance on the road against

448
00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:43,440
Speaker 2: Kansas State. I have fears about how good Kansas State

449
00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:46,280
Speaker 2: actually is, but you know, they they can hang in

450
00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:48,360
Speaker 2: close gays. It's just like up and down. The rest

451
00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:50,840
Speaker 2: of the list this season has been blowout lost, blaw loss,

452
00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:52,440
Speaker 2: So they're so.

453
00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:54,679
Speaker 4: Limited that, like, if a team is on, they just

454
00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:55,360
Speaker 4: can't keep up.

455
00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:58,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, one hundred percent, which scares me in the TCU matchup,

456
00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:01,440
Speaker 2: because I agree, it's a lot where I almost depending

457
00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:04,840
Speaker 2: on the number, would star Oklahoma State on paper. But

458
00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:07,680
Speaker 2: you know, TCU plays fast. I think they have better

459
00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:10,760
Speaker 2: offensive players at pretty much every issued. It's one of

460
00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:13,239
Speaker 2: those games where, okay, maybe the possessions start going up,

461
00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:16,520
Speaker 2: up up, and it concerns me. I'm staying away for

462
00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:18,479
Speaker 2: the record from both of those teams until I can

463
00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:19,959
Speaker 2: get another week's worth of data.

464
00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:23,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, I was hoping that uh TSU came back and

465
00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:26,800
Speaker 4: beat Iowa State for the spot on Oklahoma State. But

466
00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:29,400
Speaker 4: we'll see whe that opens. But speaking of which, let's

467
00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:34,040
Speaker 4: get to the spots for the early week Monday Tuesday.

468
00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:37,359
Speaker 4: You can go tonight tomorrow night. Just what you have

469
00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:39,320
Speaker 4: circled what you're looking at, Michael, throwt to you. First

470
00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:40,520
Speaker 4: we got I was.

471
00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:43,400
Speaker 3: Trying to look up the pronunciation of Itta being in Mississippi.

472
00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:45,919
Speaker 3: I believe that's correct because I am on the Delta

473
00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:49,000
Speaker 3: Devils here on Monday. They're getting six and a half

474
00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:51,280
Speaker 3: against Florida A and M. They're six and twelve against

475
00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:55,160
Speaker 3: the spread and eighteen straight up on the season two.

476
00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:56,520
Speaker 4: For early week spots. And this is where you go,

477
00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:59,080
Speaker 4: you always ye, Delta Devils. This is the first thing

478
00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:02,600
Speaker 4: that you had to get out. Listenah Swacking, all right,

479
00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:03,280
Speaker 4: I respect it.

480
00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:05,679
Speaker 3: God, I've been sitting on the sideline with swatching this

481
00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:08,720
Speaker 3: entire podcast season, so at some point I had.

482
00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:11,680
Speaker 4: To hit it up, just exploding out. I can't hold

483
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:12,320
Speaker 4: it in anymore.

484
00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 3: First thing you're going to notice when you watch these

485
00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:17,159
Speaker 3: teams play, are really any swack teams. It looks like

486
00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:19,400
Speaker 3: they're shooting medicine balls from the perimeter. No one can

487
00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:24,320
Speaker 3: shoot three pointers. It is incredible, how poor for a conference.

488
00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:26,640
Speaker 1: That these guys shoot. But both of these teams can't

489
00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:27,480
Speaker 1: get stops at all.

490
00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:29,679
Speaker 3: They can't stop anyone from getting to the hoop, they

491
00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:32,320
Speaker 3: can't stop anybody from finishing. Both are in the bottom

492
00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:36,280
Speaker 3: fifteen and every major defensive shooting metric. So when I

493
00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:39,359
Speaker 3: look at that, I view this more as like.

494
00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:40,480
Speaker 1: At one possession game.

495
00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:44,560
Speaker 3: So to get above two possessions, I think is advantageous.

496
00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:47,320
Speaker 3: The Delta Devils also played pretty well at home. They

497
00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:50,480
Speaker 3: almost beat Alabama State, which was, you know, the class

498
00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:52,719
Speaker 3: of the swack at this point. They nearly upset them.

499
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:55,080
Speaker 3: They were actually up with eleven seconds to go in

500
00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:57,679
Speaker 3: that game. And the final piece is you figure a

501
00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:01,080
Speaker 3: team that's owing eighteen six and twelve rudderless ship, they

502
00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:02,920
Speaker 3: have no one to go to with the basketball.

503
00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:04,840
Speaker 1: It's actually not true. With Missippi Valley State.

504
00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:07,919
Speaker 3: Ray Kwan Brown has been taken over kind of like

505
00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:10,040
Speaker 3: surprisingly when you look at the box swear the last

506
00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:12,200
Speaker 3: four games, he's gone for twenty four and ten as

507
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:14,600
Speaker 3: an average. So I think he's the best player on

508
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:16,680
Speaker 3: the floor, and I'm just gonna go ahead and take

509
00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:19,000
Speaker 3: the points. I'm not sure if this is the spot

510
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 3: where they get off the schneide and they get their

511
00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:23,240
Speaker 3: one win of the season. It's them and Detroit Mercy

512
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:25,480
Speaker 3: in this pillow fight to get their first win.

513
00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:27,679
Speaker 1: But I think the points are just too much to

514
00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:31,040
Speaker 1: pass up. So I'll go with the Delta Devils.

515
00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:34,320
Speaker 4: Nothing like the Delta Devils. The on eighteen Delta Devils

516
00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:36,239
Speaker 4: have played pretty well at home. They don't have a win,

517
00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 4: but they put pretty well.

518
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:39,240
Speaker 3: That almost like, hey, hey, listen, when you almost beat

519
00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:42,080
Speaker 3: the best team in your conference, and honestly, like it

520
00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:44,120
Speaker 3: wasn't even a game where they just got crazy three

521
00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:44,760
Speaker 3: point variants.

522
00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:46,240
Speaker 1: They actually played pretty good on defense.

523
00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:50,040
Speaker 3: But yes, sometimes in gambling you have to have strange bedfellows,

524
00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 3: and this is one of them.

525
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:54,600
Speaker 4: So I'm hoping that I can't make the case with

526
00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 4: a straight face anymore, because I even started off the

527
00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:01,879
Speaker 4: podcast saying I can't beat North Carolina. Every time I

528
00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:05,000
Speaker 4: bet against them, they're gonna they cover. I'm betting against

529
00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:08,360
Speaker 4: them tonight. I hope Greg can make the case. I'm

530
00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:10,159
Speaker 4: gonna throw it to himause I literally I can't. I

531
00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:12,359
Speaker 4: don't have any credibility though. I'm about to put it

532
00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:14,440
Speaker 4: about the bet, about to put it in the app,

533
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:16,439
Speaker 4: and then I'm gonna put my phone on Do not Disturb,

534
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:19,280
Speaker 4: and throw my phone in the corner of the room

535
00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:21,160
Speaker 4: and go back to it in six hours because I can't.

536
00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:22,919
Speaker 4: People are gonna say, what are we doing? And I

537
00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:24,800
Speaker 4: will have no answer to them, but hopefully I can

538
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 4: just direct them to Greg here. Greg, you agree with me.

539
00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:30,120
Speaker 2: Doc, I'm so glad you went there. It's my one

540
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:33,320
Speaker 2: place for one day, my friend. They say the definition

541
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:35,679
Speaker 2: of insanity is doing the same thing over and over

542
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:40,480
Speaker 2: again expecting different results. Fine, I don't care. I mean

543
00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:43,200
Speaker 2: say I've faded this Carolina team over and over again.

544
00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:46,240
Speaker 2: There's going to be a moment this season it comes

545
00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:49,000
Speaker 2: crashing down, and when it comes crashing down, I will

546
00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 2: be on the right side of history. I love this

547
00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:54,719
Speaker 2: Carolina team. I think they're really good. The biggest reason

548
00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:57,480
Speaker 2: why you should take wake for us tonight to cover

549
00:24:57,560 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 2: eight and a half points against the tar Heels is

550
00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:03,440
Speaker 2: they're a great three point shooting team and North Carolina.

551
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:06,720
Speaker 2: The number one thing on their resume right now that

552
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:09,320
Speaker 2: you circle of. Why have they won so many games

553
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:11,720
Speaker 2: by so many points over and over again is that

554
00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 2: teams can't make a shot from outside against them.

555
00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:19,040
Speaker 4: Sometimes that just completely denies and takes away the three.

556
00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:21,760
Speaker 2: No, it's not like they are middle of the pack

557
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:25,560
Speaker 2: in preventing attempts from three. They just never go in.

558
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 2: I think there's been three games this entire season that

559
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:31,560
Speaker 2: opponents have cracked forty against them from three, and it's

560
00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:35,840
Speaker 2: been like the cupcake opponents. Look, Wake Forest is awesome.

561
00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:39,120
Speaker 2: They're twelfth in the country and shooting from beyond the arc.

562
00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:43,200
Speaker 2: Like I said, Monsanto's back, he's a stud. But every

563
00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:45,919
Speaker 2: guy in this rotation is a high volume shooter that

564
00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:48,840
Speaker 2: shoots thirty eight percent or higher from three. Like their

565
00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:52,719
Speaker 2: entire team is threats from outside. They surround a center

566
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:55,680
Speaker 2: with four guys at all times that can shoot. That's

567
00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:59,040
Speaker 2: going to be a difficult matchup for a Carolina team

568
00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:02,240
Speaker 2: that is due for some three point shooting regression. Eight

569
00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:04,399
Speaker 2: and a half's a ton of points. I'm just gonna

570
00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:06,399
Speaker 2: trust the number. And if I look stupid at the

571
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:08,879
Speaker 2: end of the day, stuck, so be it. I'm going

572
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:11,000
Speaker 2: down on this hill. Yeah.

573
00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:14,920
Speaker 4: Well, now, I'm not betting. I'm not betting on wake

574
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 4: Farest I'm not fading North Carolina. I am just trusting

575
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:26,880
Speaker 4: in my so podcast. Oh it's Greg and So. Any questions, complaints,

576
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:29,959
Speaker 4: depending on the outcomes game, direct them to Greg. I

577
00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:33,960
Speaker 4: have no responsibility for this, but I am with you. Mike.

578
00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:35,400
Speaker 4: Are you joining us?

579
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:37,760
Speaker 1: I'm not joining you on that one.

580
00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:39,679
Speaker 3: I'm getting out of the way of the North Carolina.

581
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:41,160
Speaker 4: What you got anything else?

582
00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:44,119
Speaker 1: I got other plays I don't. It's not just all

583
00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:46,960
Speaker 1: a slaction for me Tuesday.

584
00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:50,199
Speaker 3: I like Saint Joe's money line over UMass and it's

585
00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:52,879
Speaker 3: pretty simple. You know, U Mass struggles to defend the

586
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:55,360
Speaker 3: three point line and their big advantage in this game.

587
00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:58,320
Speaker 3: They're twelfth nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. Saint Jose is

588
00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:01,360
Speaker 3: a mediocre defensive rebounding team, but Matt Cross is still

589
00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:03,360
Speaker 3: listed as questionable with his ankle injury.

590
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:05,240
Speaker 1: If he's out, that means Saint.

591
00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:08,360
Speaker 3: Jose can play four guards more comfortably instead of extended

592
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:12,480
Speaker 3: minutes for crease Isandoco. And if that's the case, I

593
00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:14,280
Speaker 3: think you're going to see the Saint Joe's team that's

594
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:16,879
Speaker 3: played very very well on the road this year. They

595
00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:19,240
Speaker 3: buried Nova by thirteen on the road. They took Kentucky

596
00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:22,080
Speaker 3: to overtime in Lexington. They were within two of Charleston

597
00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:24,399
Speaker 3: on the road as well. They should have had a

598
00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 3: win against Saint Louis. It was a big time melt,

599
00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:28,480
Speaker 3: but they were up by twenty points in that game.

600
00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:31,840
Speaker 3: They're a three point high variance team. I see this

601
00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:34,119
Speaker 3: as either them winning by ten or losing by ten,

602
00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:36,360
Speaker 3: because they're going to take thirty triples in this one.

603
00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:39,360
Speaker 3: They're six nationally three point stempts per game. And Reynolds

604
00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 3: the second is he's due. He's had two quiet games.

605
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:45,120
Speaker 3: Not in terms of his efficiency, he just hasn't taken

606
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:47,200
Speaker 3: that many shots. He's taking nine shots in the last

607
00:27:47,200 --> 00:27:49,560
Speaker 3: two games. I think he's firing close to twenty in

608
00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:52,879
Speaker 3: this one and goes for twenty twenty five points against

609
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:54,760
Speaker 3: the minute men. So I'll go ahead and take Saint

610
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:55,600
Speaker 3: Joe's money line.

611
00:27:56,320 --> 00:27:58,239
Speaker 4: Mike took the weekend and he said, you know what,

612
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:01,240
Speaker 4: my brand, I need to strengthen it, make sure that

613
00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:04,159
Speaker 4: it's strong, and I need to get back to my

614
00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:09,760
Speaker 4: roots a little a ten and swashin strengthening that brand. Greg,

615
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:12,400
Speaker 4: anything else for tonight or tomorrow that you're looking at.

616
00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:15,199
Speaker 2: Yeah, speaking of strengthening your brand, I have to give

617
00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:17,720
Speaker 2: a big ten pick here. Boys. I'm going to play

618
00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 2: on Tuesday night. I'm looking at Nebraska at home against

619
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:25,840
Speaker 2: Ohio State. Nebrasketball two point favorites. According to kempomp. If

620
00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:28,560
Speaker 2: this opens, Nebraska minus two two and a half, maybe

621
00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:30,639
Speaker 2: up to minus three three and a half. I like

622
00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:34,240
Speaker 2: that number. I wouldn't go above four. But home and

623
00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:37,320
Speaker 2: away splits have been huge in this conference. It's absurd.

624
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:39,800
Speaker 2: I think they've been huge in college basketball as a whole,

625
00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:43,240
Speaker 2: but the Big Ten is like staggering. What these numbers are.

626
00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:45,800
Speaker 2: Ohio State's zero and three outright in away games this

627
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:47,920
Speaker 2: year if you go back to last year when they

628
00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 2: were miserable, but it's the Bruce Thornton led Buckeye's team.

629
00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:54,600
Speaker 2: They're one in thirteen on the road with Bruce Thorton

630
00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:56,560
Speaker 2: starting at point guard. And I know it's hard to

631
00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:59,320
Speaker 2: put that all on him, but everybody in this locker

632
00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 2: room doesn't know oh how to win games and this

633
00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:03,840
Speaker 2: conference on the road. They're just not used to it.

634
00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:06,640
Speaker 2: Nebraska's four and zero at home this year in conference play,

635
00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:09,240
Speaker 2: and those wins have not been cupcake wins. They beat

636
00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 2: Perdue at home, they beat Michigan State at home. The

637
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:15,600
Speaker 2: guys on Ohio State right now that scared me are

638
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:18,840
Speaker 2: the backcourt. Roddy Gale has just fallen off a cliff.

639
00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:21,960
Speaker 2: He's shooting thirty four percent from the floor in conference play,

640
00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 2: just twenty three percent from three. Thornton and snovers are

641
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:27,080
Speaker 2: down as well. He's twenty four percent from three in

642
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:30,760
Speaker 2: conference play. These guys were studs in the non conference

643
00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:33,640
Speaker 2: and they look to have really really hit a wall Nebraska.

644
00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:37,080
Speaker 2: The big question is Juwan Gary. He's not going to

645
00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:38,720
Speaker 2: play in this game. He had a big injury in

646
00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 2: the Rutgers game without him at home against Northwestern over

647
00:29:42,360 --> 00:29:45,000
Speaker 2: the weekend, they honestly looked pretty good. They controlled that game,

648
00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:48,240
Speaker 2: even survived a big Northwestern run late to win by six.

649
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:52,040
Speaker 2: I'm kind of hoping that with Gary's injury, maybe we

650
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:54,280
Speaker 2: actually get a little love on the line, Maybe we

651
00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:57,360
Speaker 2: get an extra point we wouldn't get. But I'm circling Nebraska.

652
00:29:57,440 --> 00:29:59,280
Speaker 2: I like them up to minus four if needed.

653
00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 4: Yep. Like the look I already mentioned Oklahoma State earlier,

654
00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:06,400
Speaker 4: stay soon in the app. They can defend the rim.

655
00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:08,320
Speaker 4: You need to do it against TCU. I'm going to

656
00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 4: see if we get an overinflated number. Mike, any brand

657
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 4: strengthening looks you want to get into anything else? Or

658
00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:15,040
Speaker 4: is that the two you had?

659
00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 3: All Right, so I've kind of gone in the mid

660
00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 3: major bucket. Let me pull out a top twenty five

661
00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:23,200
Speaker 3: match up here. You guys tell me if I'm going

662
00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:26,360
Speaker 3: in the right direction here, Houston land five at BYU.

663
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:27,280
Speaker 1: I'd love to get four.

664
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:29,560
Speaker 3: You know, the fact of the matter is we're getting

665
00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:32,240
Speaker 3: a discount because they lose at Hilton, which I think

666
00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:34,120
Speaker 3: is totally forgivable. But they lose by four on the

667
00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:36,680
Speaker 3: road at Iowa State, they lose against TCU by one.

668
00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:39,719
Speaker 3: I think that they're undervalued because when you look at

669
00:30:39,880 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 3: what they do well. Their first nationally in turnover margin

670
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:45,040
Speaker 3: at plus seven point seven per game, so they turn

671
00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:47,240
Speaker 3: you over, they take care of the basketball, their lead

672
00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:50,480
Speaker 3: on the offensive class second there, and according to Evan

673
00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 3: Maya and his famed kill shot metric, this is the

674
00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 3: most electric team in terms of turning on those big

675
00:30:56,600 --> 00:30:59,480
Speaker 3: runs and rarely giving them up. Like when you look

676
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:02,560
Speaker 3: at the little mathematical formula that he has set up

677
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:04,440
Speaker 3: there all the way in the corner where you want

678
00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:07,560
Speaker 3: to be, which is they're absolutely running floor teams off

679
00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:08,760
Speaker 3: the floor with those.

680
00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:09,520
Speaker 1: Double digit runs.

681
00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:13,280
Speaker 3: And BYU just gave up a fifteen point lead against

682
00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:16,239
Speaker 3: Texas Tech, so they're certainly susceptible of that. Even if

683
00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:18,400
Speaker 3: they were to get hot early in this game. I

684
00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:20,400
Speaker 3: don't think Houston's ever going to be out of it.

685
00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:22,000
Speaker 1: And additionally, I think.

686
00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:25,720
Speaker 3: The Marriott Center when you look at their history sixty

687
00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 3: percent covering on their home floor against the spread in

688
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:29,360
Speaker 3: the last five years, four and one as a home

689
00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:32,240
Speaker 3: dog against the spread since twenty twenty. But now they're they're,

690
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 3: you know, with the big fish here in the Big twelve.

691
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:38,760
Speaker 3: A lot of those games were in the West Coast Conference,

692
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:40,760
Speaker 3: and I think there's just going to be issues for

693
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:43,320
Speaker 3: them living and dying with the three point line against

694
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:46,480
Speaker 3: a Houston team that is elite at defending the perimeter.

695
00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:47,720
Speaker 1: They're eight and three point.

696
00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:50,640
Speaker 3: Percentage allowed at sub twenty eight percent. And it's not

697
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:53,400
Speaker 3: just luck, it's because they're always challenging. They're never giving

698
00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:55,680
Speaker 3: wide open looks. So I would love to get four.

699
00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:57,520
Speaker 3: I'd play it up to five and a half. What

700
00:31:57,560 --> 00:31:59,480
Speaker 3: are your guys thoughts on the coops on the road,

701
00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:01,480
Speaker 3: Actually Cougar and Couger match up here.

702
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:04,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm curious to Greg your thoughts, because I mean,

703
00:32:04,560 --> 00:32:06,960
Speaker 4: Byu is still an analytic old darling. They blew a

704
00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:10,240
Speaker 4: lot of teams early in the year. They're what three

705
00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:13,920
Speaker 4: of their last five, lost at home to Sincy, lost

706
00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:18,720
Speaker 4: by nine, at Baylor, lost by seven at Texas Tech,

707
00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:20,800
Speaker 4: and then they have a home win against Iwas State

708
00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:23,920
Speaker 4: in a road win against UCF and was a close game.

709
00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:27,400
Speaker 4: Are we finding out that they're frauds? Are they not?

710
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 4: Are they somewhere in the middle. I don't think anyone

711
00:32:29,360 --> 00:32:31,400
Speaker 4: would say they're one of the eight to ten best

712
00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:32,800
Speaker 4: teams in the country. Do you have any thoughts on

713
00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:33,240
Speaker 4: the Cougars.

714
00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:35,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, I be completely honest with you guys. They're one

715
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:38,800
Speaker 2: of those teams that's really polarizing because at their best,

716
00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 2: like they look dominant and the metrics love that they

717
00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:44,920
Speaker 2: get is backed up by the eye test, and then

718
00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:48,480
Speaker 2: at their worst, it's like, huh, like, how is this

719
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:50,880
Speaker 2: team tent on Ken pom still? And I think we've

720
00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:53,840
Speaker 2: seen both swings of that just in the month of January,

721
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:56,000
Speaker 2: right since Big twelve play started. It's like, you lose

722
00:32:56,000 --> 00:32:59,200
Speaker 2: by eleven at home to Cincinnati, Okay, that's gross, and

723
00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:01,760
Speaker 2: then you blow go out Iowa State by fifteen, hanging

724
00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:04,120
Speaker 2: eighty seven on one of the best defenses in the country.

725
00:33:06,080 --> 00:33:09,080
Speaker 2: I think Houston is a significantly better basketball team, but

726
00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:11,160
Speaker 2: I'd be lying to you guys if I said it's

727
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:13,120
Speaker 2: not backed up by much more than the eye test,

728
00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:16,160
Speaker 2: like all the analytics stuff that I love that I

729
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:19,440
Speaker 2: bake into, how I bet every single day tells me

730
00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:22,959
Speaker 2: that BYU is a great value play more often than not,

731
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:26,400
Speaker 2: especially if they're catching points at home. But I can't

732
00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:28,160
Speaker 2: get over with my eyes. Tell me, guys, I just

733
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:31,960
Speaker 2: don't trust this team against the top talent teams in

734
00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 2: this conference. Iowa State, like I said, is their best win.

735
00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:37,320
Speaker 2: Don't get me wrong. I always say it's a good

736
00:33:37,320 --> 00:33:40,520
Speaker 2: basketball team. They're not the most talented team, even though

737
00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:42,520
Speaker 2: they're a team the metrics really like that has a

738
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:45,640
Speaker 2: great defense. I think BYU will struggle against the teams

739
00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:48,680
Speaker 2: like a Houston, likea Kansas, like a Baylor, who they

740
00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:52,600
Speaker 2: already lost to, who just have more athletic, more talented guys.

741
00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:54,640
Speaker 2: And that's sort of where my initial feel is. But

742
00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:56,440
Speaker 2: I would be upset at you for being on either

743
00:33:56,480 --> 00:33:57,200
Speaker 2: side of this one.

744
00:33:57,480 --> 00:34:00,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I guess we didn't even talk about we

745
00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:03,200
Speaker 4: did the Big twelve by so you just mentioned Kansas.

746
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:07,320
Speaker 4: I guess we'll end here Kansas. Look, it was a

747
00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:11,279
Speaker 4: West Virginia, amazing home court advantage they were up for

748
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:14,200
Speaker 4: that game day won, But you know Kansas lost the

749
00:34:14,280 --> 00:34:18,040
Speaker 4: UCF West Virginia two of their last four games. I

750
00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:20,480
Speaker 4: don't see it with this team, Yeah, I don't. I

751
00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:22,799
Speaker 4: think as far as the national title contender. We talked

752
00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:28,280
Speaker 4: about this more, they don't have the secondary scoring. Can you, Mike, you, Michael,

753
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:31,080
Speaker 4: could either of you make a case for seeing this

754
00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:33,280
Speaker 4: team win at ather than you know, Bill self is amazing.

755
00:34:33,480 --> 00:34:34,560
Speaker 1: I mean, I'll frame it like this.

756
00:34:34,960 --> 00:34:36,839
Speaker 3: I would rather bet them to lose in the first

757
00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:38,560
Speaker 3: weekend than to win the national title.

758
00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:41,160
Speaker 1: Even I'd even extend that further. I'd love to get

759
00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:42,800
Speaker 1: you know, plus money on them going.

760
00:34:42,600 --> 00:34:44,759
Speaker 3: Out in the first weekend as opposed to even making

761
00:34:44,760 --> 00:34:47,759
Speaker 3: the final four, because I agree against elite teams where

762
00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:49,759
Speaker 3: you have to score and they're trying to put the

763
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:53,000
Speaker 3: shackles on Dickinson. That's putting too much pressure on mc

764
00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 3: colors on the perimeter. Like nobody else is stepping up,

765
00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:57,839
Speaker 3: and now the sample size keeps getting bigger one game

766
00:34:57,840 --> 00:34:59,520
Speaker 3: at a time as we move down you know, the

767
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:01,520
Speaker 3: road this season, no one's stepping up.

768
00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:04,200
Speaker 1: So yeah, this is probably as.

769
00:35:04,120 --> 00:35:06,160
Speaker 3: Low as I've been on the Jayhawks in a really

770
00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:07,920
Speaker 3: long time. You know, I wrote them when they won

771
00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:11,080
Speaker 3: the national title recently, So I'm not a hater on KU,

772
00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:13,319
Speaker 3: but this year, this team, I just don't think they

773
00:35:13,360 --> 00:35:14,400
Speaker 3: have the roster composition.

774
00:35:14,520 --> 00:35:17,360
Speaker 4: If anyone gets hurt, like one of the they're done.

775
00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:18,840
Speaker 4: But Greg, what you got.

776
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:21,480
Speaker 2: Here's the case for it. I agree with everything you

777
00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:23,680
Speaker 2: guys said, and I've been on the side of everything

778
00:35:23,719 --> 00:35:25,960
Speaker 2: you've said for about a month now. The case for

779
00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:29,080
Speaker 2: it is that Johnny Furfey is taking the step forward.

780
00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:32,320
Speaker 2: Now they need like three more Johnny Furfees to step

781
00:35:32,360 --> 00:35:35,120
Speaker 2: forward to really like them. But he looks a lot

782
00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:37,080
Speaker 2: better than he did the first month of the season

783
00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 2: right now. In the lost to West Virginia thirteen points,

784
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:42,640
Speaker 2: he got nine three point attempts up in thirty one minutes.

785
00:35:42,680 --> 00:35:45,360
Speaker 2: That's honestly the number I care most about. Chipped in

786
00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:48,560
Speaker 2: seven rebounds, three assists, zero turnovers. If he can make

787
00:35:48,600 --> 00:35:51,440
Speaker 2: that a more consistent thing. I do believe in his

788
00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:53,600
Speaker 2: talent as a six to nine freshman that a lot

789
00:35:53,600 --> 00:35:55,920
Speaker 2: of people liked as a late ad. But yeah, the

790
00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:58,600
Speaker 2: bench is gross right now. Marco Jackson's been moved back

791
00:35:58,600 --> 00:36:01,919
Speaker 2: to the bench. Nicklake, he was two for five from three,

792
00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:04,040
Speaker 2: but he's going to do that about once every five games,

793
00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:07,440
Speaker 2: it seems right now. The only thing I would say is,

794
00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:10,080
Speaker 2: I think it almost feels like the public is too

795
00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:14,840
Speaker 2: aware that Kansas is a fade right now. That almost

796
00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:17,560
Speaker 2: makes me want to flip back on Bill Self's side,

797
00:36:17,640 --> 00:36:19,959
Speaker 2: right does It's more fun to fade if we're being

798
00:36:19,960 --> 00:36:22,800
Speaker 2: the sharps on Kansas than it is if everyone's aware

799
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:24,120
Speaker 2: that you should be fading them.

800
00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:27,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, this could be you know, your bio low point.

801
00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:30,040
Speaker 4: I thought someone was going to actually bring up Kansas,

802
00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:33,239
Speaker 4: But you're right for if they like, just know, if

803
00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:34,680
Speaker 4: he continues to play the way he does, and they

804
00:36:34,719 --> 00:36:37,120
Speaker 4: gotta find at least one other guy to help in

805
00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:39,440
Speaker 4: the secondary scoring department, esp. Just when you go up

806
00:36:39,440 --> 00:36:41,480
Speaker 4: against the league defenses, because you can just say, all right,

807
00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:43,719
Speaker 4: this is who we are going to take away. Other

808
00:36:43,719 --> 00:36:45,319
Speaker 4: people have to step up when you're playing like the

809
00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:49,719
Speaker 4: Houston's ye Ohiowa States. So we'll see if that the

810
00:36:49,760 --> 00:36:52,880
Speaker 4: rest of that secondary scoring they can just find some bench.

811
00:36:53,000 --> 00:36:55,439
Speaker 4: You have to. You have to at least give self

812
00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:56,839
Speaker 4: the benefit of the doubt that he's going to find

813
00:36:56,840 --> 00:36:59,799
Speaker 4: some answers. But has now it's hard to see them

814
00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 4: being a national title contender as far as their ceiling

815
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:06,920
Speaker 4: is concerned, but that'll do it for us. Good good stuff, gentlemen.

816
00:37:07,200 --> 00:37:10,840
Speaker 4: Hope everyone enjoyed the episode. As always, three man. We

817
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:14,680
Speaker 4: will be back on Wednesday. Myself, Mike calbertys Mike Grant

818
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:18,520
Speaker 4: will be back Thursday night with the weekend betting preview.

819
00:37:19,040 --> 00:37:22,239
Speaker 4: Make sure you subscribe, unsubscribe, subscribe to a friend ton

820
00:37:22,320 --> 00:37:24,319
Speaker 4: let me know the drill leave I star viewers really

821
00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:27,359
Speaker 4: help us out. I will do promise I said in

822
00:37:27,360 --> 00:37:29,560
Speaker 4: the next couple weeks. I'll do giveaways later in the week.

823
00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:32,360
Speaker 4: So do a five star review. It doesn't matter what

824
00:37:32,400 --> 00:37:34,400
Speaker 4: you say, we'll do giveaways. Send you guys gear so

825
00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:37,279
Speaker 4: I appreciate that. But thanks to Greg and Mike as

826
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:39,440
Speaker 4: always for joining me. Thanks to our producer David on

827
00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:41,360
Speaker 4: the back end. Most importantly, thanks to all of you

828
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:44,000
Speaker 4: for tuning in. Good luck on all of your wagers

829
00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:46,680
Speaker 4: earlier in the week, and remember it's not my fault

830
00:37:46,760 --> 00:37:50,480
Speaker 4: if u NC covers, it's Greg's. Thanks for tuning in

831
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:53,200
Speaker 4: and we will see you later in the week. Cheers.

832
00:37:53,480 --> 00:38:10,839
Speaker 3: Odiges Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

833
00:38:11,239 --> 00:38:14,080
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

834
00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:15,239
Speaker 1: help is available.

835
00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:17,840
Speaker 3: Twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler