WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Eric Van Nostrand & Scott DiMaggio

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Single best idea, which is that my number one book

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<v Speaker 2>to read is Against the Gods. It is dated but

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<v Speaker 2>still wonderful, and I must read. It's a right of

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<v Speaker 2>passage for anybody that wants to go into the business.

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<v Speaker 2>But I would suggest also that it's great because there's

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<v Speaker 2>a real dearth of math. There's a little bit of

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<v Speaker 2>Pascal's triangle and probability combination theory, but other than that,

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<v Speaker 2>there's no math. And it's Peter Bernstein and it's absolutely classic.

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<v Speaker 2>And it's about risk, uncertainty, and ambiguity, and those are

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<v Speaker 2>three different things. And in the scope of a short podcast,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm not going to go into it. But the swarning

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<v Speaker 2>you really went from punditry and strategy around risk an

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<v Speaker 2>ability to measure where you are, to the reality that

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<v Speaker 2>we really can't measure what's going on, a huge amount

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<v Speaker 2>of uncertainty. Conversation to conversation on the view on equities,

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<v Speaker 2>maybe on earnings, Eric van Nostri Andlizard Asset Management.

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<v Speaker 1>So what we're looking at is the disconnect between where

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<v Speaker 1>where economic fundamentals are telling us that oil is going

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<v Speaker 1>to go, the companies that are linked to the oil price,

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<v Speaker 1>the companies that are link to other non oil imports

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<v Speaker 1>coming out of the straight are going to go and

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<v Speaker 1>what markets are saying, and we're still concerned that markets

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<v Speaker 1>are much too sanguine about these shocks, much too sanguine

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<v Speaker 1>about inflation in general, in an environment where the fundamentals

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<v Speaker 1>on the ground don't seem like this is wrapping up

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<v Speaker 1>anytime soon.

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<v Speaker 2>I really agree with that kind of uncertainty from Eric

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<v Speaker 2>van Nostri and what I would say. I did this

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<v Speaker 2>on Twitter quickly this weekend. In a time like this,

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<v Speaker 2>everybody looks at the Y axis, the up and down

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<v Speaker 2>access on a chart, whatever the chart is, red SOX, baseball,

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<v Speaker 2>the straits, a lot of traffic, whatever it is, And

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<v Speaker 2>the hardest thing to do is to look at the

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<v Speaker 2>X axis, which is the time function, and that's where

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<v Speaker 2>all the uncertainty is. Is just just massive, Like if

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<v Speaker 2>you say, okay, oil's one hundred and ten, when's it

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<v Speaker 2>going to get to quote normal? Nobody on the excesses

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<v Speaker 2>as a clue, I would really focus on any of

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<v Speaker 2>the time functions or determinants. It's so many of the

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<v Speaker 2>experts are talking about on the bond side, a brilliant

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<v Speaker 2>note from Scott demanishio of Alliance Bernstein. His basic take

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<v Speaker 2>is full faith and credit. Here Scott demands you again

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<v Speaker 2>on your uncertainty.

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<v Speaker 3>We think the majority of your return is going to

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<v Speaker 3>come from clipping clipping that coupon. But if we are

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<v Speaker 3>right and the economy slows and we get into the

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<v Speaker 3>second half of the year, the Federal Reserve can reduce

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<v Speaker 3>interest rates one to two times. We think you can

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<v Speaker 3>get some spread tightening, some lower interest rates, and you

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<v Speaker 3>can get some capital appreciation and as as well, the

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<v Speaker 3>corporate market offers value. You know, the muni market's repriced

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<v Speaker 3>quite a bit the last two or three weeks, so

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<v Speaker 3>we think the muni market, especially the long end, also

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<v Speaker 3>offers values for those you know, US US clients.

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<v Speaker 2>Scott Demaga there with the Lions Bernstein on podcasts or

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<v Speaker 2>on Apple, on Spotify, on YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea.