Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Single best idea, which is that my number one book
Speaker 2: to read is Against the Gods. It is dated but
Speaker 2: still wonderful, and I must read. It's a right of
Speaker 2: passage for anybody that wants to go into the business.
Speaker 2: But I would suggest also that it's great because there's
Speaker 2: a real dearth of math. There's a little bit of
Speaker 2: Pascal's triangle and probability combination theory, but other than that,
Speaker 2: there's no math. And it's Peter Bernstein and it's absolutely classic.
Speaker 2: And it's about risk, uncertainty, and ambiguity, and those are
Speaker 2: three different things. And in the scope of a short podcast,
Speaker 2: I'm not going to go into it. But the swarning
Speaker 2: you really went from punditry and strategy around risk an
Speaker 2: ability to measure where you are, to the reality that
Speaker 2: we really can't measure what's going on, a huge amount
Speaker 2: of uncertainty. Conversation to conversation on the view on equities,
Speaker 2: maybe on earnings, Eric van Nostri Andlizard Asset Management.
Speaker 1: So what we're looking at is the disconnect between where
Speaker 1: where economic fundamentals are telling us that oil is going
Speaker 1: to go, the companies that are linked to the oil price,
Speaker 1: the companies that are link to other non oil imports
Speaker 1: coming out of the straight are going to go and
Speaker 1: what markets are saying, and we're still concerned that markets
Speaker 1: are much too sanguine about these shocks, much too sanguine
Speaker 1: about inflation in general, in an environment where the fundamentals
Speaker 1: on the ground don't seem like this is wrapping up
Speaker 1: anytime soon.
Speaker 2: I really agree with that kind of uncertainty from Eric
Speaker 2: van Nostri and what I would say. I did this
Speaker 2: on Twitter quickly this weekend. In a time like this,
Speaker 2: everybody looks at the Y axis, the up and down
Speaker 2: access on a chart, whatever the chart is, red SOX, baseball,
Speaker 2: the straits, a lot of traffic, whatever it is, And
Speaker 2: the hardest thing to do is to look at the
Speaker 2: X axis, which is the time function, and that's where
Speaker 2: all the uncertainty is. Is just just massive, Like if
Speaker 2: you say, okay, oil's one hundred and ten, when's it
Speaker 2: going to get to quote normal? Nobody on the excesses
Speaker 2: as a clue, I would really focus on any of
Speaker 2: the time functions or determinants. It's so many of the
Speaker 2: experts are talking about on the bond side, a brilliant
Speaker 2: note from Scott demanishio of Alliance Bernstein. His basic take
Speaker 2: is full faith and credit. Here Scott demands you again
Speaker 2: on your uncertainty.
Speaker 3: We think the majority of your return is going to
Speaker 3: come from clipping clipping that coupon. But if we are
Speaker 3: right and the economy slows and we get into the
Speaker 3: second half of the year, the Federal Reserve can reduce
Speaker 3: interest rates one to two times. We think you can
Speaker 3: get some spread tightening, some lower interest rates, and you
Speaker 3: can get some capital appreciation and as as well, the
Speaker 3: corporate market offers value. You know, the muni market's repriced
Speaker 3: quite a bit the last two or three weeks, so
Speaker 3: we think the muni market, especially the long end, also
Speaker 3: offers values for those you know, US US clients.
Speaker 2: Scott Demaga there with the Lions Bernstein on podcasts or
Speaker 2: on Apple, on Spotify, on YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea.