WEBVTT - Midterm Polling Reliability; Democratic Representative Focuses on Accountability 0:00:02.529 --> 0:00:07.050 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. 0:00:08.510 --> 0:00:13.150 Welcome to the Bloomberg This Weekend podcast with David Gura, 0:00:13.390 --> 0:00:18.740 Christina Ruffini, and Lisa Mateo. Thanks for joining us for 0:00:18.760 --> 0:00:20.980 today's selection of conversations from the show. 0:00:21.200 --> 0:00:23.439 You can listen to our favorite discussions right here on 0:00:23.460 --> 0:00:25.840 the podcast, but also make sure to join us live 0:00:26.000 --> 0:00:28.640 every Saturday and Sunday morning starting at 7 a.m. 0:00:28.700 --> 0:00:29.020 Eastern. 0:00:29.180 --> 0:00:32.680 We're on Bloomberg Television, radio, and the Bloomberg Business App, 0:00:33.060 --> 0:00:37.530 bringing you unique takes and in-depth interviews on news, politics. 0:00:37.650 --> 0:00:39.150 Lifestyle, and culture. 0:00:41.810 --> 0:00:43.850 We're two days away from the midterm elections that could 0:00:43.890 --> 0:00:45.610 result in the change in congressional power. 0:00:46.240 --> 0:00:47.979 More than a dozen states up for grabs. 0:00:48.000 --> 0:00:50.699 Historically, a president's party does usually lose ground in a 0:00:50.740 --> 0:00:53.730 midterm election. Current polls by The New York Times hinting 0:00:53.770 --> 0:00:55.279 to that being the case this time around as well. 0:00:55.450 --> 0:00:55.670 Yeah. 0:00:55.690 --> 0:00:56.950 Joining us now is Tim O'Brien. 0:00:56.970 --> 0:01:00.470 He is senior executive editor of Bloomberg Opinion and Ashley Koning. 0:01:00.730 --> 0:01:03.910 the director of Rutgers University's Eagleton Center for. 0:01:03.850 --> 0:01:06.580 Public Interest Polling. Thank you both for being here. 0:01:07.340 --> 0:01:09.020 Ashley, I'm going to start right with you because you 0:01:09.080 --> 0:01:10.160 are our polling expert. 0:01:10.380 --> 0:01:11.140 I'll go right there. 0:01:11.680 --> 0:01:14.600 Regarding Tuesday's election, what are we seeing so far as 0:01:14.640 --> 0:01:16.980 far as which candidate would likely go for the House, 0:01:17.100 --> 0:01:17.700 for the Senate? 0:01:17.760 --> 0:01:18.540 What are you seeing so far? 0:01:18.959 --> 0:01:22.360 We see in prediction models that now we're almost 90-plus 0:01:22.390 --> 0:01:25.130 percent for the House. We're at around 70 percent for 0:01:25.150 --> 0:01:29.930 the Senate. There could be a pickup of double-digit seats 0:01:30.010 --> 0:01:32.660 for both of these. And so we're seeing this blue 0:01:32.690 --> 0:01:35.959 wave really come to fruition in pre-election polling. And some 0:01:35.980 --> 0:01:38.220 of the latest polling is just further pointing to that, 0:01:38.300 --> 0:01:41.319 along with on the generic ballot, looking at double digits, 0:01:41.459 --> 0:01:42.870 Democrats plus 10. 0:01:42.870 --> 0:01:44.310 Tim, you've been at this for a long time, looking 0:01:44.350 --> 0:01:46.350 at these polls, and I'm curious what stands out to 0:01:46.370 --> 0:01:48.730 you this time around Charlie Cook talking about the red 0:01:48.790 --> 0:01:51.880 undertow versus the blue wave. How are you thinking about 0:01:51.890 --> 0:01:54.000 what the polls are saying and just the overall efficacy 0:01:54.020 --> 0:01:54.880 of this kind of advanced polling? 0:01:54.900 --> 0:01:56.620 Well, I think also, you know, Charlie Cook in that 0:01:56.680 --> 0:01:58.440 post said he's covered 11 midterms. 0:01:58.520 --> 0:01:58.700 Yeah. 0:01:58.900 --> 0:02:00.640 And he's never seen one like this. And I think 0:02:00.700 --> 0:02:05.529 it's accurate because midterms historically have an advantage for the— 0:02:07.220 --> 0:02:13.200 opposing party. But this is way beyond what historical norms convey, 0:02:13.240 --> 0:02:15.780 and I think it's a measure of the unpopularity of 0:02:15.820 --> 0:02:19.820 President Trump, the fact that Americans are struggling with the basics, 0:02:19.900 --> 0:02:23.180 you know, food and gas and utility prices. They don't 0:02:23.220 --> 0:02:29.299 feel like they're seeing solutions. I think Republicans themselves aren't 0:02:29.400 --> 0:02:32.679 enamored with Trump and with MAGA-ism in the way they were. 0:02:33.120 --> 0:02:35.560 And I think that's gonna be, I mean, where Republican 0:02:35.580 --> 0:02:38.420 voters come out in some of these deep red states. 0:02:38.460 --> 0:02:40.500 You know, a year ago we were talking about John 0:02:40.600 --> 0:02:43.139 Ossoff would be in a competitive race in Georgia. And 0:02:43.180 --> 0:02:46.180 now he looks like he's coasting to a victory Roy 0:02:46.220 --> 0:02:48.940 Cooper in North Carolina of the New Hampshire race is 0:02:48.960 --> 0:02:54.960 another one. But then you look at Kansas and Iowa, Mississippi, 0:02:55.060 --> 0:03:00.340 I'm skeptical that Democrats can win there, but there is 0:03:00.380 --> 0:03:04.520 definitely forces in play that suggest they could. And that's, 0:03:04.660 --> 0:03:06.530 in practical ways, you're seeing that in the amount of 0:03:06.560 --> 0:03:09.410 money that's being spent in those states, not this late 0:03:09.430 --> 0:03:14.190 in the midterm. Donald Trump is campaigning in places like Mississippi, Iowa, 0:03:14.210 --> 0:03:16.730 and Kansas. So it's pretty extraordinary. 0:03:17.270 --> 0:03:19.450 Now, Tim mentioned Iowa and Kansas. So, Ashley, I want 0:03:19.470 --> 0:03:21.750 to ask you, as far as polls, what are people, 0:03:21.790 --> 0:03:22.810 what are the top issues? 0:03:22.850 --> 0:03:23.970 I'm thinking Iowa, Kansas. 0:03:24.130 --> 0:03:26.230 It's got to be diesel prices, of course, because it's 0:03:26.270 --> 0:03:28.430 a farming country. But what are some of the top issues? 0:03:28.630 --> 0:03:32.790 I mean, really, it's affordability, affordability, affordability. This whole election, 0:03:32.810 --> 0:03:35.230 and we've seen this now for the past couple of 0:03:35.270 --> 0:03:38.520 years in special elections and gubernatorials and off-year elections. 0:03:38.980 --> 0:03:40.880 It's about cost of living. It's about the economy. 0:03:40.920 --> 0:03:44.080 It's about people being unable to afford their daily lives. 0:03:44.120 --> 0:03:47.040 And this is a top issue, especially among those who 0:03:47.220 --> 0:03:51.040 are siding with Democrats. And for over a decade now, 0:03:52.080 --> 0:03:54.760 or for the first time in over a decade, Democrats 0:03:54.780 --> 0:03:57.270 are actually seen as more favorable on helping the economy 0:03:57.290 --> 0:03:59.770 than Republicans. And that is a complete flip from what 0:03:59.790 --> 0:04:01.090 we've seen in the past in polling. 0:04:01.670 --> 0:04:04.250 I was listening to noted Brooklyn philosopher Ezra Klein talking 0:04:04.290 --> 0:04:07.380 about polling. And he was getting into the issue of 0:04:07.420 --> 0:04:08.900 polling in Maine in particular, and I want to ask 0:04:08.940 --> 0:04:12.820 you about that. Susan Collins has outperformed polls in many cycles. 0:04:13.370 --> 0:04:15.330 Why is that the case, and how much confidence should 0:04:15.370 --> 0:04:16.830 we have in the numbers that we're seeing going into 0:04:16.850 --> 0:04:17.229 that race? 0:04:17.450 --> 0:04:19.190 She has, and I think we're looking at that as 0:04:19.210 --> 0:04:21.450 somewhat of a toss-up. We just saw some New York 0:04:21.490 --> 0:04:24.529 Times-Siena results that had come out, and I think she's 0:04:24.589 --> 0:04:26.650 up by about three or four right now. But she 0:04:26.710 --> 0:04:29.250 has outperformed her polls. And of course, let's also not 0:04:29.310 --> 0:04:32.990 ignore the incumbency factor and what name recognition and incumbency 0:04:33.029 --> 0:04:35.510 does for a candidate, as well as, you know, she 0:04:35.550 --> 0:04:39.349 has obviously been there for decades upon decades at this point. 0:04:39.750 --> 0:04:42.270 And we know these polls will tighten and close as 0:04:42.360 --> 0:04:46.380 we go to Election Day, especially those undecideds taking sides. 0:04:46.700 --> 0:04:49.280 So given all of those strengths she has, this could 0:04:49.300 --> 0:04:52.279 be something she could potentially still pull out. But still, obviously, 0:04:52.339 --> 0:04:53.620 one of the close races we're watching. 0:04:54.279 --> 0:04:56.020 Tim, we've heard the president talk a lot about saying, 0:04:56.300 --> 0:04:58.300 you know, pretend I'm on the ballot, you know, vote 0:04:58.320 --> 0:05:01.830 like I'm on the ballot. But everything we've been talking about, affordability, 0:05:02.070 --> 0:05:05.090 the war in Iran, is that the right approach that 0:05:05.110 --> 0:05:05.969 he's taking by saying that? 0:05:06.670 --> 0:05:10.650 Certainly within the Republican Party itself, there's a number of 0:05:10.690 --> 0:05:14.120 people who don't think it's the right approach. You look 0:05:14.180 --> 0:05:19.160 in Kansas, you have candidates running away from him. I 0:05:19.200 --> 0:05:21.719 think he's saying, I'm on the ballot because that worked 0:05:21.740 --> 0:05:25.700 for him in general elections, and that there is truth 0:05:25.760 --> 0:05:28.839 in that, that he has his own magnetism and charisma 0:05:28.920 --> 0:05:31.490 as a candidate and with this base of voters who 0:05:31.529 --> 0:05:33.790 are fiercely loyal to him on the far right of 0:05:33.810 --> 0:05:39.060 the Republican Party. But in these state elections where everything 0:05:39.339 --> 0:05:41.900 that is coming home to roost, he's the author of 0:05:41.940 --> 0:05:46.810 the problem. The two primary causes of inflation right now 0:05:46.850 --> 0:05:50.990 in the United States are Trump's tariffs and Trump's war 0:05:51.089 --> 0:05:53.930 on Iran. And we often say presidents should be held 0:05:53.970 --> 0:05:58.500 responsible for economic dynamics. They're complex. The business community plays 0:05:58.540 --> 0:06:01.280 a role. The economy itself is its own machine. But 0:06:01.320 --> 0:06:03.900 this is a unique moment in that you can really 0:06:04.000 --> 0:06:08.040 tag the inflationary pressures that are troubling so many Americans 0:06:08.240 --> 0:06:10.780 to Trump himself. So every time he walks into a race, 0:06:11.260 --> 0:06:14.940 you have basically the human avatar for inflation coming into 0:06:14.960 --> 0:06:18.770 your voting district. And those candidates don't want their voters 0:06:18.830 --> 0:06:21.530 to be reminded that their party's responsible for this. 0:06:22.230 --> 0:06:23.750 Let me talk a bit with you actually just about 0:06:23.790 --> 0:06:26.130 the MAGA base that we've been discussing here. And there 0:06:26.150 --> 0:06:28.380 was a fascinating poll by Politico in recent days here 0:06:28.420 --> 0:06:31.400 looking at sort of how President Trump's base would react 0:06:31.440 --> 0:06:34.260 were there to be a massive loss on the Republican side. 0:06:34.500 --> 0:06:37.680 Majority of MAGA Trump voters, 54%, said that if Republicans 0:06:37.720 --> 0:06:39.280 lose both the House and the Senate next week, it 0:06:39.300 --> 0:06:41.800 would show that the party needs to move closer to 0:06:41.839 --> 0:06:44.860 Trump and his agenda. What does something like that say 0:06:44.880 --> 0:06:47.219 about the hold that he has, despite what might be 0:06:47.240 --> 0:06:49.480 a very devastating policy setback for him going forward? 0:06:49.920 --> 0:06:52.719 Yeah, that's a very interesting finding. And I think, you know, 0:06:52.800 --> 0:06:55.800 first and foremost, it's who makes up the MAGA base 0:06:55.839 --> 0:06:59.099 and what percentage are they especially turning out. We just 0:06:59.140 --> 0:07:02.740 talked about turnout in midterms being different, obviously, from presidential years. 0:07:03.260 --> 0:07:06.130 And the polls have been pretty on the money when 0:07:06.170 --> 0:07:09.990 we're talking about these midterm cycles under the Trump era. 0:07:10.370 --> 0:07:12.530 We know that the issue in polling has really stemmed 0:07:12.550 --> 0:07:14.530 from Trump being at the top of the ballot. So, 0:07:14.930 --> 0:07:17.980 you know, again, we pretty much were there in 2018 0:07:17.980 --> 0:07:21.360 and then looking at 2022. So, you know, I think 0:07:21.400 --> 0:07:25.020 that's a really interesting indication of just how much they 0:07:25.060 --> 0:07:27.880 will support him. But there is a ceiling there, obviously, 0:07:28.220 --> 0:07:30.440 where if they're not turning out in the midterms or 0:07:30.460 --> 0:07:32.820 if there's not enough of them and they're not in 0:07:32.880 --> 0:07:36.310 these key swing groups like Latinos or like suburban voters 0:07:36.350 --> 0:07:38.970 or non-college educated, that only does so much for the 0:07:39.010 --> 0:07:42.190 president in garnering him favorability and for the party as well. 0:07:42.790 --> 0:07:46.010 Tim, I'm curious, if the Democrats do take over, what 0:07:46.030 --> 0:07:48.380 does it mean for the Republican Party looking ahead to 0:07:48.390 --> 0:07:48.860 the future? 0:07:49.120 --> 0:07:51.180 Like, do they continue to hold. 0:07:51.000 --> 0:07:54.240 President Trump as kind of this, you know, buying figure 0:07:54.400 --> 0:07:55.140 over the party, or. 0:07:55.120 --> 0:07:57.280 Do they kind of sit back a little bit more? 0:07:57.320 --> 0:07:58.780 Well, I mean, I think both parties are going to 0:07:58.800 --> 0:08:03.010 have challenges. You know, the Democrats can campaign now about 0:08:03.030 --> 0:08:05.990 the problems of affordability. If they get power, especially if 0:08:06.010 --> 0:08:09.550 they get, you know, a meaningful, if they get 235 0:08:09.550 --> 0:08:11.490 or 240 seats in the House, they then have to 0:08:11.530 --> 0:08:14.250 show they can address these problems. And that'll be especially 0:08:14.300 --> 0:08:18.480 important going into the 2028 campaign, the presidential campaign. I, 0:08:18.820 --> 0:08:21.000 you know, it is gonna be fascinating to watch what 0:08:21.040 --> 0:08:24.239 happens with Republicans because in a normal world, they would just, 0:08:24.300 --> 0:08:27.140 the ax would come down and the rope would get cut. 0:08:27.320 --> 0:08:31.780 And Trump would be a profoundly lame, lame duck. However, 0:08:31.840 --> 0:08:35.070 he is such a force of nature. I imagine that 0:08:35.090 --> 0:08:37.790 he will probably go into areas where he can still 0:08:37.870 --> 0:08:42.449 act unilaterally, primarily overseas. So he's going to present a 0:08:42.490 --> 0:08:45.969 real problem for the Republicans in Congress about whether or 0:08:45.990 --> 0:08:49.189 not they choose to restrain him. and then risk losing 0:08:49.250 --> 0:08:53.370 his endorsement mojo going into the general election. So I 0:08:53.410 --> 0:08:55.390 do think there's going to be a distancing. I just 0:08:55.410 --> 0:08:58.250 don't know how overt and dramatic it'll be. 0:08:58.809 --> 0:09:00.050 You know, it does strike me that right now we're 0:09:00.070 --> 0:09:02.460 dealing with a Republican party that made a bet on 0:09:02.500 --> 0:09:05.939 demographics being calcified. I think that the Latino vote exemplifies that, 0:09:06.100 --> 0:09:07.640 where they kind of bet that what we saw in 0:09:07.660 --> 0:09:09.300 the last cycle was going to play out here. That 0:09:09.320 --> 0:09:11.120 seemed not to be the case. It seems to be 0:09:11.140 --> 0:09:12.840 true of the young vote as well. They were able 0:09:12.860 --> 0:09:14.740 to draw a lot of young male voters in particular 0:09:14.780 --> 0:09:17.679 over during the last cycle. What does that say to 0:09:17.700 --> 0:09:21.130 you just about their awareness of or sense of their electorate? 0:09:21.690 --> 0:09:24.230 I mean, I think both parties, David, can lose track 0:09:24.270 --> 0:09:26.540 of the fact that it is, in my mind, always 0:09:26.600 --> 0:09:29.400 bread and butter issues that drive most voters to the polls. 0:09:29.790 --> 0:09:31.250 They want the world to be a better place for 0:09:31.270 --> 0:09:33.250 their kids. They want to be able to put food 0:09:33.290 --> 0:09:35.970 on the table. They want good job prospects. When you 0:09:36.010 --> 0:09:38.790 look at what's happened in the Rio Grande Valley, for example, 0:09:38.929 --> 0:09:43.090 as one barometer of the Latino vote, I think they 0:09:43.150 --> 0:09:48.390 voted for Trump despite his overt hostility to people of color, 0:09:48.850 --> 0:09:53.780 to immigrants, to all of these traditions of attempting to 0:09:53.820 --> 0:09:57.520 have civility around that conversation, because they thought he'd be 0:09:57.540 --> 0:09:58.300 better for the economy. 0:09:59.220 --> 0:09:59.360 And. 0:10:00.220 --> 0:10:02.320 you could argue that Joe Biden lost the 2024 race 0:10:02.360 --> 0:10:10.670 in 2022 when inflation started escalating. And it is passing 0:10:10.710 --> 0:10:13.429 strange that Trump did not learn that lesson himself because 0:10:13.450 --> 0:10:16.360 he campaigned against Biden on it. And I think to 0:10:16.420 --> 0:10:18.600 win voters over, you have to meet their needs. And 0:10:18.620 --> 0:10:20.140 I think this has been going on for a long time, 0:10:20.200 --> 0:10:24.350 going back to the mid-1980s, particularly for the American middle 0:10:24.370 --> 0:10:27.050 class and working class voters of color. 0:10:27.690 --> 0:10:30.970 Ashley, how's the president's approval rating been going? I mean, 0:10:30.990 --> 0:10:33.589 you're watching different polls. How does it vary from poll 0:10:33.610 --> 0:10:33.930 to poll? 0:10:34.390 --> 0:10:36.610 We see about 4 in 10 right now in terms 0:10:36.650 --> 0:10:39.170 of approval on average. CNN and New York Times came 0:10:39.230 --> 0:10:41.710 out with, I believe, 36 percent, which is the lowest 0:10:41.830 --> 0:10:43.750 of either one of his terms. A couple weeks ago, 0:10:43.820 --> 0:10:45.890 he was at a low point for a second. Now 0:10:45.960 --> 0:10:48.439 we're looking at the lowest of both terms here. So, 0:10:48.780 --> 0:10:52.080 you know, plummeting approval ratings when it comes to the economy, 0:10:52.140 --> 0:10:54.240 when it comes to cost of living, all of these 0:10:54.300 --> 0:10:57.040 issues that are at the top, and especially among swing voters— 0:10:57.520 --> 0:11:00.520 we see that his approval ratings are even worse, and 0:11:00.559 --> 0:11:02.660 that we see that his approval ratings on those particular 0:11:02.720 --> 0:11:05.440 issues are further down than they are overall as well. 0:11:06.040 --> 0:11:08.390 Tim, you mentioned the potential problems within the Democratic Party. 0:11:08.410 --> 0:11:10.350 Let's turn our attention to Michigan and what we've seen 0:11:10.390 --> 0:11:12.770 over these last few days there, where Abdullah Syed's in 0:11:12.790 --> 0:11:15.850 this very close race with former Congressman Mike Rogers and 0:11:15.870 --> 0:11:17.610 Haley Stevens, who ran against Mr. 0:11:17.630 --> 0:11:18.830 Al-Syed in the primary. 0:11:18.850 --> 0:11:21.450 It's really stirred up a lot of new tension that 0:11:21.470 --> 0:11:23.229 you might have expected during the primary season, but now 0:11:23.250 --> 0:11:25.790 we're seeing once again. What does that say to you 0:11:25.830 --> 0:11:30.000 about this divide to lean on the old song about 0:11:30.059 --> 0:11:32.400 the kind of centrist partisan divide within the party. Is 0:11:32.440 --> 0:11:34.560 it telling you anything about that more broadly, or is 0:11:34.580 --> 0:11:36.100 it kind of unique to Michigan's situation? 0:11:36.120 --> 0:11:37.160 Well, I mean, in Michigan, I. 0:11:37.160 --> 0:11:39.760 Think the divide over Israel was present in the primary. 0:11:40.820 --> 0:11:44.060 That clearly seemed to have been put to bed up 0:11:44.100 --> 0:11:46.640 until about this past week, and now that's been one 0:11:46.660 --> 0:11:50.970 of the flashpoints that has separated El-Sayed and Haley Stevens. 0:11:53.250 --> 0:11:56.020 Here's what it says to me. I think the Republicans 0:11:56.059 --> 0:11:59.300 are radically good at staying on message even if it 0:11:59.360 --> 0:12:02.709 occasionally forces them not to advocate for things they believe 0:12:02.750 --> 0:12:07.010 in because they want to acquire power. They get in 0:12:07.090 --> 0:12:08.810 line and they do what they have to do to 0:12:08.870 --> 0:12:12.070 acquire power. I think by design and to its credit, 0:12:12.110 --> 0:12:14.410 the Democratic Party is a bigger tent. It has a 0:12:14.550 --> 0:12:18.610 lot of different waves of needs around policy and values. 0:12:20.280 --> 0:12:22.560 When push comes to shove, if they want to acquire power, 0:12:22.840 --> 0:12:24.319 they have to stay on message, and they have to 0:12:24.380 --> 0:12:29.890 avoid these kinds of internal divisions two days before a midterm. 0:12:30.530 --> 0:12:35.470 It boggles the imagination. They can't even jointly go to 0:12:35.490 --> 0:12:38.610 a unity event orchestrated by people outside the two of them. 0:12:41.679 --> 0:12:42.620 it's not a good signal. 0:12:42.940 --> 0:12:43.620 It's not. 0:12:43.679 --> 0:12:46.319 Early voting, what kind of signal does that present? I mean, 0:12:46.740 --> 0:12:49.220 the Associated Press was saying about 50 million votes cast 0:12:49.240 --> 0:12:52.100 so far. Texas, seven and a half million, a record there. 0:12:52.520 --> 0:12:54.000 How does that affect polls? 0:12:54.440 --> 0:12:56.600 Yeah, you know, I think we're, number one, we're up 0:12:56.679 --> 0:12:59.599 over past midterms. Number two, we've seen kind of these 0:12:59.660 --> 0:13:03.160 explosive historic trends in early voting throughout many states, especially 0:13:03.200 --> 0:13:06.300 these battlegrounds. But we have to be careful because obviously 0:13:06.350 --> 0:13:08.430 that's going to point to a lot more Democratic voters 0:13:08.510 --> 0:13:11.980 simply because they're more likely to vote early. We see 0:13:12.020 --> 0:13:14.320 more Republicans come out on election day. And so we 0:13:14.380 --> 0:13:17.490 have to understand that the bigger blue wave going into 0:13:17.530 --> 0:13:20.190 election day and election night is because of this early 0:13:20.250 --> 0:13:23.130 voting and that this is obviously going to narrow and 0:13:23.190 --> 0:13:26.290 taper off as we calculate and add in election night 0:13:26.330 --> 0:13:28.980 results as well. You know, in terms of polls, we 0:13:29.000 --> 0:13:31.459 accommodate for that. We ask people if they've already voted, 0:13:32.400 --> 0:13:34.180 you know, and if they haven't, you know, how certain 0:13:34.220 --> 0:13:34.840 they are to vote. 0:13:34.880 --> 0:13:36.439 So polls try to incorporate that. 0:13:36.460 --> 0:13:38.460 But of course, it makes it yet another challenge that 0:13:38.820 --> 0:13:40.500 some of these people that we're talking to may have 0:13:40.530 --> 0:13:41.150 voted already. 0:13:41.380 --> 0:13:43.699 Is it a proxy for or an indicator for enthusiasm? 0:13:43.760 --> 0:13:45.740 If someone's voting early, is it that or is it 0:13:45.760 --> 0:13:47.819 just a matter of convenience? How do you think about that? 0:13:47.900 --> 0:13:49.920 You know, I would say it's more partisanship. 0:13:50.140 --> 0:13:52.439 But we also know that enthusiasm is also on Democrats' 0:13:52.460 --> 0:13:55.260 side right now. Democrats are much more enthusiastic about voting 0:13:55.280 --> 0:13:57.700 than Republicans. And so I think it's a little bit 0:13:57.720 --> 0:14:00.940 of a combination of both of these. And obviously, those 0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:03.980 who are unaffiliated, those who are registered as other parties, independents, 0:14:04.700 --> 0:14:06.160 We don't know which way they're going. So that's the 0:14:06.200 --> 0:14:08.280 mystery in all of this. We don't know who people 0:14:08.320 --> 0:14:10.719 have voted for in early voting. We just know what 0:14:10.760 --> 0:14:11.840 their registration says. 0:14:11.860 --> 0:14:12.420 All right. 0:14:12.520 --> 0:14:14.500 Ashley Koenig of Rutgers, thank you very much. Tim O'Brien, 0:14:14.780 --> 0:14:19.830 executive editor of Bloomberg Opinion, thanks for your time. Stay 0:14:19.870 --> 0:14:23.010 with us for more on Bloomberg This Weekend, right after this. 0:14:35.430 --> 0:14:38.010 There are just two days to go until the midterm elections. 0:14:38.030 --> 0:14:40.290 That'll determine the control of the House and the Senate 0:14:40.580 --> 0:14:43.220 and potentially dictate how the final two years of the 0:14:43.240 --> 0:14:46.540 Trump administration will play out in Washington. Now, one of 0:14:46.600 --> 0:14:50.620 the 435 seats under contention in Tuesday's midterms includes current 0:14:50.680 --> 0:14:55.520 Connecticut Representative Rosa DeLauro, who is seeking her 19th term 0:14:55.560 --> 0:14:56.700 in the chamber. Quite a number. 0:14:57.120 --> 0:14:57.460 19th term. 0:14:57.540 --> 0:15:00.230 If victorious, she could end up chairing the Appropriations Committee 0:15:00.280 --> 0:15:03.140 once again. which would likely have a significant impact on 0:15:03.160 --> 0:15:05.680 the Trump agenda. We asked her about her plans for 0:15:05.710 --> 0:15:06.370 that to come to pass. 0:15:06.390 --> 0:15:11.790 I think that we're headed to a blue wave election, 0:15:12.290 --> 0:15:16.690 and we're looking at the trends have not stopped, you know, 0:15:16.830 --> 0:15:22.290 and every day they're adding more and more seats that 0:15:22.350 --> 0:15:26.600 appear to be moving in a Democratic direction. I think 0:15:26.680 --> 0:15:29.300 nothing for granted. I think we have, what, three days 0:15:29.380 --> 0:15:31.950 left here, and we need to be... continue to be 0:15:32.010 --> 0:15:34.330 focused like a laser on the issues that the American 0:15:34.350 --> 0:15:36.790 people care about, which is the cost of living, the 0:15:36.850 --> 0:15:43.130 issue of corruption, etc. But I'm optimistic about November 3rd. 0:15:43.430 --> 0:15:47.540 This could be an election that gets us back to 2018, 0:15:47.540 --> 0:15:49.100 where we picked up 36 seats. 0:15:49.380 --> 0:15:51.760 Now, you've been raising alarms about people living paycheck should 0:15:51.800 --> 0:15:52.620 paycheck for years. 0:15:53.840 --> 0:15:55.680 But what's different this time around? 0:15:55.700 --> 0:15:57.100 I mean, what do Democrats have to do to kind 0:15:57.140 --> 0:15:59.230 of bring down the cost of living in this country? 0:15:59.850 --> 0:16:01.990 Well, look, first of all, I think and I think 0:16:02.030 --> 0:16:07.100 it's very important to note, you know, that Democrats understood 0:16:07.120 --> 0:16:12.730 this is nationwide that. People were suffering. People are living 0:16:12.770 --> 0:16:17.680 paycheck to paycheck. They're struggling to pay groceries, utilities, housing, 0:16:17.760 --> 0:16:21.760 gas prices, health care, all of it. There's a reality. 0:16:22.020 --> 0:16:27.220 The Democrats understood that. And across the country, they have 0:16:27.680 --> 0:16:33.050 focused on that issue with the American people. That has 0:16:34.220 --> 0:16:39.990 created a view that, well, people are understanding what is 0:16:40.010 --> 0:16:43.860 going on in our lives, but there's also the understanding 0:16:44.200 --> 0:16:49.740 that the Trump administration has made this worse. They have 0:16:50.140 --> 0:16:54.080 a war of choice, which has raised gas prices, whether 0:16:54.140 --> 0:16:58.420 it's regular or diesel, that has driven up the cost 0:16:59.210 --> 0:17:03.890 of groceries for people. They have a tariff war, which 0:17:03.970 --> 0:17:06.570 is costing them anywhere from $ 1, 800 to almost $ 3, 600 a year. 0:17:10.369 --> 0:17:16.179 with these costs. So you have the combination of picking 0:17:16.260 --> 0:17:20.540 up on an affordability issue, but an administration that has 0:17:20.600 --> 0:17:24.530 done nothing. And not only have done nothing, the president 0:17:24.570 --> 0:17:28.470 doesn't believe there's an affordability crisis. He says it's a hoax. Well, 0:17:28.990 --> 0:17:31.730 if you're a billionaire or a millionaire, yeah, it's a hoax, 0:17:32.350 --> 0:17:36.340 you know, but You know, folks are really struggling. That's 0:17:36.380 --> 0:17:42.949 been picked up. And the unbelievable lack of understanding and 0:17:43.050 --> 0:17:49.889 compounding that economic crisis for people have, you know, juxtaposed, 0:17:50.840 --> 0:17:53.100 you know, and are creating, in my view, a blue 0:17:53.119 --> 0:17:53.740 wave election. 0:17:54.590 --> 0:17:56.670 If this breaks your way on Tuesday, you stand to 0:17:56.810 --> 0:17:59.730 reclaim that gavel on the Appropriations Committee. And I wonder 0:17:59.770 --> 0:18:01.990 sort of what you would prioritize were that to come 0:18:02.109 --> 0:18:04.430 to pass? How would you approach leadership of that committee again? 0:18:05.359 --> 0:18:08.420 Sure. Thank you. Thank you for the question. Look, first 0:18:08.460 --> 0:18:11.020 of all, and I will run for the office. I 0:18:11.060 --> 0:18:13.540 do not have a challenger. I don't take anything for granted, 0:18:13.560 --> 0:18:15.020 but I will be in touch with all of my 0:18:15.060 --> 0:18:18.420 colleagues to ask for their support and talk about where 0:18:18.460 --> 0:18:21.800 they want to go on this. But My priorities at 0:18:21.840 --> 0:18:26.840 the moment are to use the Appropriations Committee to address 0:18:26.940 --> 0:18:31.480 the affordability crisis. And that means because we deal with 0:18:31.540 --> 0:18:36.790 health care, we deal with housing, we deal with. transportation, agriculture, 0:18:37.150 --> 0:18:41.490 you know, the 12 committees where we can look at 0:18:41.540 --> 0:18:45.120 the programs that are affecting people's lives, redress what this 0:18:45.200 --> 0:18:48.360 administration has done to cut back in all of these 0:18:48.480 --> 0:18:51.340 areas and to put money back in people's pockets. So 0:18:51.400 --> 0:18:54.800 I will use the committee to do that. I also, 0:18:54.859 --> 0:18:57.100 from my own view, which I have been the author 0:18:57.140 --> 0:18:59.840 of the child tax credit, I'm going to move forward 0:19:00.240 --> 0:19:03.880 on doing that, paid family and medical leave. universal child 0:19:03.920 --> 0:19:07.240 care universal health care those are all directions to go 0:19:07.280 --> 0:19:10.379 in but first and foremost for me is appropriations and 0:19:10.440 --> 0:19:14.250 addressing the problem secondly on that yeah i'm going to 0:19:14.290 --> 0:19:20.790 look at accountability it's not going to be frivolous but 0:19:20.930 --> 0:19:24.560 i want to find out what they have done with 0:19:24.619 --> 0:19:29.540 the money that has been appropriated by Democrats and Republicans, 0:19:30.160 --> 0:19:34.090 signed by the president to law. And now the president 0:19:34.460 --> 0:19:37.369 and an office of management and budget with Russell Vogt 0:19:37.810 --> 0:19:41.530 has stolen this money from the American people. And we 0:19:41.570 --> 0:19:44.410 need to find out what they have done and where 0:19:44.470 --> 0:19:48.130 this money has gone. So there will be an oversight 0:19:48.170 --> 0:19:51.290 component of the appropriation Committee. 0:19:51.310 --> 0:19:53.250 Now, I have to say, you're seeking a sort of 0:19:53.310 --> 0:19:55.290 19th term in the House. I believe it's the longest 0:19:55.390 --> 0:19:59.560 serving House member from Connecticut. I have to ask, how 0:19:59.580 --> 0:20:03.640 has campaigning changed since you first got in the game? 0:20:03.660 --> 0:20:05.619 I'm curious to see your side of it. 0:20:06.380 --> 0:20:10.470 Well, the biggest change has been social media, you know. 0:20:11.330 --> 0:20:12.220 Are you all over it? 0:20:12.310 --> 0:20:12.750 You are. 0:20:14.430 --> 0:20:14.650 Right. 0:20:15.770 --> 0:20:17.790 You know, if you can't keep up with the times, 0:20:17.810 --> 0:20:19.950 you got to get out of the way and don't bother. 0:20:20.080 --> 0:20:23.740 But this is the way it goes. But, you know, 0:20:25.380 --> 0:20:29.940