WEBVTT - Mistakes and Unknowns: Election Polls, Poker Tournaments, and the NBA Finals 0:00:15.564 --> 0:00:26.404 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 0:00:26.444 --> 0:00:29.324 better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova. 0:00:29.124 --> 0:00:31.924 And I'm Nate Silver. Today on the show, we'll talk 0:00:31.924 --> 0:00:35.044 about former President Donald Trump, who was convicted last week 0:00:35.044 --> 0:00:36.684 on thirty four at Filamy Charges. 0:00:37.244 --> 0:00:40.604 And we're also going to be talking about an update 0:00:40.684 --> 0:00:44.084 from the first week of the World Series. I'm going 0:00:44.164 --> 0:00:47.284 to go into some of the psychological mistakes I've seen 0:00:47.364 --> 0:00:50.004 people make. But we're also going to give a big 0:00:50.044 --> 0:00:52.684 shout out to Nate, who is deep in an event 0:00:52.724 --> 0:00:55.244 of his own, fifteenth out of over twenty five hundred 0:00:55.284 --> 0:00:56.604 players who started this event. 0:00:57.284 --> 0:00:59.324 And this week Thursday night, if you listen to this 0:00:59.404 --> 0:01:03.244 on Thursday, the NBA Finals begin. The Boston Celtics are 0:01:03.324 --> 0:01:06.204 at home against Dallas Mavericks. There's a big gap between 0:01:06.684 --> 0:01:09.884 betting markets and Cisco models. We will discuss why. 0:01:15.924 --> 0:01:18.804 So, Nate, before we get into the Trump verdict, I 0:01:18.804 --> 0:01:21.524 want to talk about I just want to nod to 0:01:21.564 --> 0:01:24.924 the fact that you're even here this morning, so in 0:01:25.164 --> 0:01:27.564 at like four thirty am, so I'm back on the 0:01:27.564 --> 0:01:32.044 East coast right now taping this from New Haven. So 0:01:32.364 --> 0:01:35.604 I get a text because as it turns out, I 0:01:35.604 --> 0:01:40.044 forgot to turn off my phone, so that was good. Sorry, 0:01:40.324 --> 0:01:42.724 it's okay, it's okay. Then I turned it off after 0:01:42.764 --> 0:01:46.764 that from Nate saying, you know, just bagged for the 0:01:46.844 --> 0:01:50.684 day in the fifteen hundred six Max. I am number 0:01:50.804 --> 0:01:54.124 fifteen of like three hundred and something left in chips. 0:01:54.244 --> 0:01:57.004 I'll still make the recording. And this is ten am 0:01:57.124 --> 0:02:01.164 my time, so Eastern time at seven am, Vegas time, 0:02:01.444 --> 0:02:04.244 and Nate is here and let the record show risky 0:02:04.284 --> 0:02:07.404 business listeners. Nate is a much more devoted host than 0:02:07.444 --> 0:02:10.964 I am, because damned if I would be recording after 0:02:11.084 --> 0:02:14.964 bagging at two am, five hours later, I would have 0:02:15.284 --> 0:02:18.164 sent a text to everyone being like, guys, we're really 0:02:18.204 --> 0:02:23.884 really sorry, we can't record today. I am fifteenth in 0:02:24.004 --> 0:02:27.244 chips and right now recording is negative ev for me. 0:02:27.484 --> 0:02:29.604 So anyway, Nate, thank you for being here. Let's get 0:02:29.604 --> 0:02:32.324 into Trump, so we'll. 0:02:32.164 --> 0:02:35.004 Talk about that. But look, I mean it happens. We're 0:02:35.004 --> 0:02:36.684 going to talk on this episode about kind of real 0:02:36.724 --> 0:02:40.884 life intruding into best laid plans, because we'd be hypocrites 0:02:40.924 --> 0:02:43.564 if we if we didn't. By the way, I don't 0:02:43.604 --> 0:02:46.004 want to make this Trump thing about us and me also, 0:02:46.044 --> 0:02:48.524 but It's another thing that, like, I did not plan 0:02:48.684 --> 0:02:53.284 on Trump getting convicted of all these felony charges while 0:02:53.284 --> 0:02:56.084 I was out at the World Series, and that also 0:02:56.164 --> 0:02:58.164 kind of blew up a day. But you know, we'll 0:02:58.164 --> 0:03:00.244 talk about Trump first on his own terms and then 0:03:00.644 --> 0:03:03.204 in the polast I would get more into planning versus reality. 0:03:03.604 --> 0:03:08.084 So let's do that. So, as our listeners probably know, 0:03:08.924 --> 0:03:13.444 last week, former President Donald Trump was convicted guilty on 0:03:13.604 --> 0:03:17.564 all thirty four charges that he was up on in 0:03:17.804 --> 0:03:21.324 New York. So Nate, let's talk about that. Let's talk 0:03:21.364 --> 0:03:25.284 about what that means. And actually let's start with the 0:03:25.324 --> 0:03:27.284 fact that you said that you did not expect this 0:03:27.404 --> 0:03:29.724 to happen while you were at the World Series. Is 0:03:29.764 --> 0:03:32.444 that because you thought that the verdict would be later 0:03:32.684 --> 0:03:34.724 or because you did not expect him to be convicted 0:03:34.764 --> 0:03:36.284 on all of the thirty four charges. 0:03:36.924 --> 0:03:39.684 Marie, I think you would probably have a better term 0:03:39.724 --> 0:03:43.684 for this than I would. It's a cognitive load kind 0:03:43.684 --> 0:03:46.004 of thing. Does some extent. I think people who are 0:03:46.204 --> 0:03:49.284 able to navigate multiple tasks are able to kind of 0:03:49.844 --> 0:03:52.324 shut things out and say I'm going to ignore this 0:03:52.804 --> 0:03:55.644 for now. Right at some point I understand that like 0:03:56.044 --> 0:03:58.724 Trump is before this jury, and if you've actually like 0:03:58.764 --> 0:04:01.044 looked at prediction markets, I'll took about that on the 0:04:01.044 --> 0:04:03.884 show from time to time. They had expected a verdict 0:04:04.124 --> 0:04:06.684 last week, and in fact expected a guilty verdict more 0:04:06.724 --> 0:04:09.604 likely than not. But no, this is not like two 0:04:10.404 --> 0:04:13.124 kind of the smart sharp traders. This is not an 0:04:13.204 --> 0:04:16.924 unexpected outcome. Trump had not been I didn't watch the trial, 0:04:16.964 --> 0:04:18.924 I want to be clear about that, but by the 0:04:18.924 --> 0:04:21.404 conventional wisdom people who watch it more closely, Trump had 0:04:22.204 --> 0:04:26.364 had not offered very much compelling argumentation. He had fallen 0:04:26.404 --> 0:04:29.244 asleep at various points during the trial. I think he's 0:04:29.284 --> 0:04:32.284 a little bit defiant obviously about seeing it as an 0:04:32.324 --> 0:04:37.924 opportunity for like a campaign exercise, spin exercise. And you know, 0:04:38.004 --> 0:04:41.484 I assume he thinks he won't go to actual jail 0:04:41.604 --> 0:04:44.004 at any point, although there's some chance in theory that 0:04:44.044 --> 0:04:48.244 he could. We are not legal analysts. I don't know 0:04:48.244 --> 0:04:49.684 if we're going not for much opinion about like is 0:04:49.724 --> 0:04:51.604 this the right case quote unquote to bring against Trump. 0:04:52.004 --> 0:04:54.964 I'm here to analyze public opinion a little bit more. 0:04:55.004 --> 0:04:57.044 And our guess is about what effect this might have 0:04:57.204 --> 0:05:01.924 on the polls most members of the public, if they 0:05:01.924 --> 0:05:06.244 were aware of the trial at all, did not expect 0:05:06.364 --> 0:05:09.404 a guilty verdict. I think because Trump has kind of 0:05:09.564 --> 0:05:14.964 of skated by so often with with relatively few consequences 0:05:14.964 --> 0:05:17.124 to become president after all for four years and may 0:05:17.164 --> 0:05:21.644 become president again for another four years. Expected there not 0:05:21.724 --> 0:05:24.924 to be consequences for his actions. So that's one reason 0:05:25.004 --> 0:05:27.444 why you might expect it to affect the polls, is 0:05:27.484 --> 0:05:31.684 because it comes as a surprise to to rank and 0:05:31.684 --> 0:05:32.644 file voters. 0:05:32.724 --> 0:05:35.204 But isn't it true? And please correct me if I'm 0:05:35.244 --> 0:05:36.924 wrong that New York is the only state where he 0:05:36.964 --> 0:05:41.164 has actually faced consequences because he did have to pay 0:05:41.684 --> 0:05:44.684 for you know, the hush many payments he did, and 0:05:44.724 --> 0:05:46.564 the defamation earlier, which. 0:05:46.444 --> 0:05:50.124 Is a separate case, right, and each Jan Carol sexual 0:05:50.204 --> 0:05:52.044 assault case. So yeah, New York is kind of and 0:05:52.324 --> 0:05:55.524 and you know, I don't know how much you want 0:05:55.564 --> 0:05:59.244 to get into the I mean, this was considered of 0:05:59.284 --> 0:06:01.764 the four criminal cases, which is separate, by the way 0:06:01.804 --> 0:06:04.324 from the defamation case, which is a civil case, right. 0:06:04.644 --> 0:06:08.404 This one was considered the weakest. Is is kind of 0:06:08.444 --> 0:06:11.564 the background that I had seen. 0:06:12.724 --> 0:06:17.484 Correct, I mean, the way Republicans would convey it is 0:06:17.524 --> 0:06:20.004 it's kind of like al Capone being convicted on income 0:06:20.044 --> 0:06:22.564 tax fraud instead of all the other stuff that al Capone, the. 0:06:22.484 --> 0:06:25.124 Guy was convicted, it didn't matter, that was on income 0:06:25.164 --> 0:06:25.804 tax fraud. 0:06:27.604 --> 0:06:29.804 Look, let me so let me you want to give 0:06:29.884 --> 0:06:32.084 us a little bit. You know, I am worried a 0:06:32.084 --> 0:06:35.284 little bit because the argument that worries me a bit 0:06:35.924 --> 0:06:40.924 is that in authoritarian countries, oftentimes, if there is an 0:06:41.364 --> 0:06:48.004 opposition leader who you want to disenfranchise, then you trump 0:06:48.084 --> 0:06:51.044 up some legal charges that may range from technically correct 0:06:51.084 --> 0:06:57.204 but exaggerated to entirely fabricated. You know, Alvin Bragg, the prosecutor, 0:06:57.284 --> 0:07:00.724 had had talked about, I mean kind of campaigned on 0:07:00.804 --> 0:07:04.364 being tougher on Trump. Right, it's in Manhattan, the place 0:07:04.404 --> 0:07:06.884 where something like eighty five nine of the voters that 0:07:07.004 --> 0:07:09.644 jurypool voted for Biden, although to be fair, there are 0:07:09.644 --> 0:07:12.724 some of them consumed media from sites like truth Social 0:07:12.724 --> 0:07:16.684 Trump's alternative to Twitter slash x. But look, the fact 0:07:16.724 --> 0:07:22.724 that Trump has been prosecuted and criticized and persecuted that 0:07:22.764 --> 0:07:29.044 may feed into his appeal for a certain strain of voter. However, 0:07:29.844 --> 0:07:32.844 given that reality, which you cannot undo, for better or worse, 0:07:32.924 --> 0:07:37.084 this point I think Biden is much better off with 0:07:37.124 --> 0:07:40.324 a guilty verdict than an acquittal, right, because you can't 0:07:40.324 --> 0:07:42.764 take back the fact that there are all these charges. 0:07:42.804 --> 0:07:45.044 You can't take back the fact that, like you know, 0:07:45.124 --> 0:07:50.844 to me, the election overturning January sixth stuff is a 0:07:50.884 --> 0:07:54.204 couple of orders of magnitude, meaning literally hundreds of times 0:07:54.684 --> 0:08:01.564 more serious than anything involving a former porna. But you know, again, 0:08:01.644 --> 0:08:04.004 plans to always kind of match the deal reality. I 0:08:04.044 --> 0:08:09.124 think the more buttoned up prosecutions in the January sixth 0:08:09.164 --> 0:08:12.324 try have taken a long time. But anyway, Trump has 0:08:12.364 --> 0:08:14.924 been convicted on this first set of charges. He will 0:08:15.924 --> 0:08:20.564 almost for sure appeal. I would think the sentencing phase 0:08:20.604 --> 0:08:23.724 will still occur in July, just before the Republican National Convention. 0:08:24.764 --> 0:08:25.684 But that's where we stand. 0:08:26.284 --> 0:08:30.564 Yeah, And obviously I'm not an expert in the polling 0:08:31.204 --> 0:08:33.964 part of this, And so I'm curious because you know, 0:08:34.004 --> 0:08:36.164 I've been reading the news like I'm a good news consumer. 0:08:36.204 --> 0:08:40.404 I've been following the trial. I'm still a little bit 0:08:40.444 --> 0:08:42.964 bummed that it wasn't televised, but it wasn't so I 0:08:43.044 --> 0:08:45.884 was following from Afar and I have read kind of 0:08:45.924 --> 0:08:48.724 takes on both sides that, as you said, you know, 0:08:49.084 --> 0:08:51.404 given that this happened and that we can't control the timing, 0:08:51.444 --> 0:08:54.244 it's great that at least the verdict was guilty. However, 0:08:54.364 --> 0:08:56.284 I have also seen kind of the other side that 0:08:56.324 --> 0:09:01.164 this just strengthens Trump's position among a huge, kind of 0:09:01.244 --> 0:09:05.004 swath of Trump voters and that a lot of people 0:09:05.044 --> 0:09:06.724 see this as kind of part of his brand. 0:09:07.004 --> 0:09:07.204 Right. 0:09:07.244 --> 0:09:08.884 This is the guy who said I can stand in 0:09:08.884 --> 0:09:10.684 the middle of fIF if I haven't even shoot someone 0:09:11.204 --> 0:09:14.684 and still be elected. And here he is saying, like, see, 0:09:14.964 --> 0:09:17.844 I don't follow your laws, like I'm you know, I'm 0:09:17.884 --> 0:09:21.044 a renegade. I'm my own man. And they're like, yeah, 0:09:21.284 --> 0:09:23.564 you know, And this this just shows that, you know, 0:09:23.644 --> 0:09:25.484 the judicial system is corrupt. So I guess there are 0:09:25.484 --> 0:09:28.564 two separate questions here. One, do you have a sense 0:09:28.804 --> 0:09:30.684 now or is it a little bit too early to 0:09:30.724 --> 0:09:33.044 figure out how this is going to go down kind 0:09:33.044 --> 0:09:35.604 of in the polls in the Trump base? And two, 0:09:35.724 --> 0:09:37.924 and this is a kind of a separate question, let's 0:09:37.964 --> 0:09:41.444 talk a little bit afterwards about the judicial impact of 0:09:41.484 --> 0:09:45.484 this and kind of the delegitimization of the judicial system 0:09:45.564 --> 0:09:47.684 that Trump is trying to push as a story. 0:09:49.684 --> 0:09:53.244 So as gamblers or poker players, we think in terms 0:09:53.284 --> 0:09:57.164 of the marginal effect on something. Right, if you beamed 0:09:57.884 --> 0:10:03.404 to twenty twenty four from ten years ago, you'd be 0:10:03.444 --> 0:10:05.724 shocked by a lot of things. You'd be shocked that 0:10:06.844 --> 0:10:09.804 a a Town Trump had become president. You'd be be 0:10:10.004 --> 0:10:12.324 that Trump had was running for president again and in 0:10:12.364 --> 0:10:16.164 fact was tied her ahead in the polls, despite his 0:10:16.284 --> 0:10:19.044 various criminal charges, and how kind of his first term 0:10:19.764 --> 0:10:24.204 ended with January sixth, and with COVID, you'd be surprised 0:10:24.244 --> 0:10:27.564 that the trial wasn't in some sense a bigger deal. 0:10:27.604 --> 0:10:29.764 I mean, people have been pretty tuned out to this 0:10:29.884 --> 0:10:32.324 until the verdict occurred, in to even people like me, 0:10:32.444 --> 0:10:34.804 I guess, in the news business to some extent. However, 0:10:35.684 --> 0:10:38.724 people in our world, Maria, the poker kind of gambling world, 0:10:38.764 --> 0:10:42.484 think in terms of what's priced in quote unquote to 0:10:42.524 --> 0:10:47.084 the stock. So if you look at betting markets a 0:10:47.164 --> 0:10:49.844 week ago, which was just before when we're taking its 0:10:49.884 --> 0:10:54.244 its Tuesday morning Vegas time, in prodiction markets, Trump had 0:10:54.284 --> 0:10:57.644 a fifty three percent chance of winning the election before 0:10:57.644 --> 0:11:01.244 the verdict. Now that is fifty one percent, So he 0:11:01.324 --> 0:11:04.844 has follown by two percentage points relative to where he 0:11:05.004 --> 0:11:08.484 was pre verdict. And by the way, because people assumed 0:11:09.044 --> 0:11:10.964 before or that he was more likely than not to 0:11:11.004 --> 0:11:13.284 be guilty. If this had come totally on the blue, 0:11:13.284 --> 0:11:15.044 it might have been a bigger shift. But basically, like 0:11:15.964 --> 0:11:18.924 people putting money on the line, follow the conventional wisdom 0:11:18.924 --> 0:11:22.684 that outlined earlier, which is that you know, being a 0:11:22.684 --> 0:11:26.084 convicted felon is probably bad, right, I mean, this is 0:11:26.124 --> 0:11:29.084 kind of where we are probably in politics now. It's 0:11:29.084 --> 0:11:34.764 certainly worse for Trump than being an acquitted, accused felon who, 0:11:34.764 --> 0:11:36.484 even in New York could have been found guilty. I 0:11:36.524 --> 0:11:39.484 mean imagine that, right, That would have been I think 0:11:39.684 --> 0:11:41.964 a big feather in Trump's cap and a big disaster 0:11:42.124 --> 0:11:45.604 for Biden. Now, with that said, for the most part, 0:11:45.644 --> 0:11:50.644 now people are making educated guesses about the impact. There 0:11:50.764 --> 0:11:54.524 is some kind of instant turnaround polling, some of that 0:11:54.564 --> 0:11:58.284 shows Biden gaining a point or two. Net is actually 0:11:58.364 --> 0:12:00.924 one poll from Morning Consult that has Biden actually losing 0:12:01.324 --> 0:12:03.564 a point or so. But we don't have a high 0:12:03.684 --> 0:12:08.284 quality traditional pollster going and doing a proper sample with 0:12:08.324 --> 0:12:11.044 a proper amount of time, asking the right questions to 0:12:11.084 --> 0:12:14.004 a demographically balanced sample, because that just takes a little 0:12:14.044 --> 0:12:17.404 bit of time, and the Polsters apparently didn't necessarily plan 0:12:17.524 --> 0:12:19.684 and advance with this verdict occurring either. 0:12:19.804 --> 0:12:22.404 They're probably at the World Series of Poker with you. 0:12:22.404 --> 0:12:24.364 You never you never know, Maria, I mean, you never 0:12:24.444 --> 0:12:27.724 know who you'll see at the World Series. However, this 0:12:27.844 --> 0:12:31.204 is important because Trip raised one hundred and forty one 0:12:31.284 --> 0:12:35.204 million dollars in May, bolstered in part by this guilty verdict. 0:12:35.404 --> 0:12:38.884 He had a massive amount of four eight hour fundraising. 0:12:39.404 --> 0:12:42.564 I think money's a little bit overrated in presidential campaigns. 0:12:42.644 --> 0:12:46.764 But the point is, yet his base is really enthused, 0:12:46.924 --> 0:12:50.284 and by the way, Biden's base is really enthused too. 0:12:50.284 --> 0:12:53.164 They're tweeting lots of memes about, you know, Donald Trump 0:12:53.204 --> 0:13:00.524 in a prison jumpsuit and things like that. I wouldn't 0:13:00.524 --> 0:13:04.044 have dared to even watch MSNBC. What would have happened 0:13:04.084 --> 0:13:08.524 on Thursday and Friday and all of that right to me, though, 0:13:08.524 --> 0:13:10.804 these are not the voter who matter because their votes 0:13:10.844 --> 0:13:14.124 are already locked in. Instead, it's the kind of casual, 0:13:14.404 --> 0:13:19.124 normy voter who says, no matter what else, Donald Trump 0:13:19.164 --> 0:13:22.684 is a condicted felon, and even the New York Post, 0:13:22.764 --> 0:13:24.244 for example, which I used. The New York Post is 0:13:24.284 --> 0:13:30.924 like a benchmark of conservative but not totally red pilled 0:13:31.004 --> 0:13:33.924 Fox News opinion. They're trying to in a competitive news market. 0:13:33.964 --> 0:13:36.524 They're trying to, you know, they like the actual news. 0:13:36.524 --> 0:13:38.924 And the New York Post had liked the banner headline 0:13:38.924 --> 0:13:40.884 about Trump being guilty. They weren't trying to spin it 0:13:41.284 --> 0:13:44.484 too much. So everybody saw this headline about Trump is 0:13:44.524 --> 0:13:48.724 guilty of thirty six or thirty four. I mean, Trump 0:13:48.804 --> 0:13:49.564 is guilty of thirty four. 0:13:49.604 --> 0:13:52.604 Fallon each Inflation's rail. Inflation's rail. 0:13:53.324 --> 0:13:55.364 Another problem for Bide. But look, but like part of 0:13:55.404 --> 0:13:58.884 it is what are the basic, simple, stylized facts about 0:13:58.924 --> 0:14:01.724 the election? You know, for Biden, the fact is that 0:14:01.804 --> 0:14:05.084 prices are a lot higher than they were four years ago. 0:14:05.204 --> 0:14:09.004 Now you can debate that and say, well, most that 0:14:09.044 --> 0:14:12.404 happened in twenty twenty two, and inflation has slowed down now. 0:14:12.444 --> 0:14:15.844 And by the way, you've had inflation all around the world, 0:14:15.884 --> 0:14:18.724 and it's kind of maybe not entirely Biden's fault, and 0:14:19.044 --> 0:14:23.204 and and the jobs market is good. But in politics, 0:14:23.204 --> 0:14:26.364 when you're explaining you're losing, is the is the axiom, 0:14:26.364 --> 0:14:28.844 It's simplar like when Biden is the fact that Biden 0:14:28.924 --> 0:14:31.484 is eighty one years old, and I think often looks 0:14:31.524 --> 0:14:33.324 an acts like it is a simple fact. By the way, 0:14:33.364 --> 0:14:36.484 Trump is seventy seven, will turn seventy eight before too 0:14:36.564 --> 0:14:39.924 much longer. You know, that fact is very hard for 0:14:39.924 --> 0:14:42.404 Biden to overcome. You can spend and say, well, Trump 0:14:42.484 --> 0:14:46.204 is almost as old and Biden Biden is, you know, 0:14:46.284 --> 0:14:48.604 managing the toughest job in the world, and whatever else. 0:14:48.684 --> 0:14:51.364 We have better healthcare, But like the more explaining you're doing, 0:14:51.444 --> 0:14:54.324 you're losing it. In this case, it's Trump and his 0:14:54.444 --> 0:14:57.404 team on their heels, right, They're the ones who are 0:14:57.404 --> 0:15:00.884 saying this prostitution is unfair and how can you expect 0:15:00.884 --> 0:15:03.324 a jury verdict in New York to be fair? And 0:15:03.324 --> 0:15:04.724 blah blah blah blah blah blah. 0:15:04.844 --> 0:15:08.444 Right, Yeah, and I'd actually I'd love to just pause 0:15:08.564 --> 0:15:11.844 and just go deep, more deeply on to that point, 0:15:11.924 --> 0:15:15.284 because I think that elections aside, right, since we don't 0:15:15.284 --> 0:15:17.524 have the poll numbers yet, and we probably won't when 0:15:17.524 --> 0:15:20.844 this podcast comes out in a few days, but what 0:15:20.924 --> 0:15:23.884 we are already seeing is kind of what I'd alluded 0:15:23.924 --> 0:15:26.484 to before. The arguments that Trump has been making for 0:15:26.564 --> 0:15:28.884 quite some time about the fact that you can't trust 0:15:28.924 --> 0:15:32.164 our judicial system, right, the judicial system is corrupt, et cetera, 0:15:32.204 --> 0:15:34.724 et cetera, et cetera. And he's been making this argument 0:15:34.764 --> 0:15:38.044 at every single level of government. And I think that 0:15:38.044 --> 0:15:41.564 that's kind of another a long term consequence that might 0:15:41.804 --> 0:15:46.004 actually kind of last longer than this particular election, this 0:15:46.044 --> 0:15:49.684 particular trial, because what he's doing is undermining one of 0:15:49.684 --> 0:15:53.564 the pillars of democracy and the system that traditionally the 0:15:53.604 --> 0:15:56.444 American public has had the most trust in. And now 0:15:56.444 --> 0:16:00.404 we see that trust eroding because Trump keeps repeating over 0:16:00.444 --> 0:16:03.764 and over and over these statements which are blatant lies. 0:16:03.844 --> 0:16:06.644 But as a psychologist, I can say that it doesn't 0:16:06.644 --> 0:16:09.284 matter because the more someone repeats a lie, it starts 0:16:09.284 --> 0:16:10.444 to feeling like the truth. 0:16:10.964 --> 0:16:15.964 Yeah. Look, trust in almost every major American institution to 0:16:16.004 --> 0:16:19.924 some extent. The military is an exception, but almost every 0:16:19.924 --> 0:16:25.164 major American institution has declined over the past ten twenty 0:16:25.324 --> 0:16:29.444 thirty years. How much Trump is a cause of that 0:16:30.284 --> 0:16:34.204 versus a symptom is a debate I'm sure that academics 0:16:34.524 --> 0:16:37.084 and historians will have for a long time. I mean, 0:16:37.404 --> 0:16:42.884 you know, Trump takes advantage of low trust voters. We're 0:16:42.924 --> 0:16:46.564 in a downward trust spiral in the US. Trump is 0:16:46.564 --> 0:16:52.124 a major kind of cog in that machine, but not 0:16:52.244 --> 0:16:55.244 the only cog. I mean, I don't know, I Maria 0:16:55.444 --> 0:16:57.044 on the show. I want to be able to express 0:16:57.564 --> 0:17:02.044 ambiguous or ambivalent opinions. I have ambivalent feelings about the 0:17:02.044 --> 0:17:05.604 prosecution by Alvin Bragg. If I spent one hundred more 0:17:05.604 --> 0:17:08.124 hours looking at it, I might have stronger feelings one 0:17:08.204 --> 0:17:11.244 way or the other. But you know, I do think 0:17:11.244 --> 0:17:13.324 it's probably right. I think if you kind of surveyed 0:17:14.044 --> 0:17:18.324 most nonpartisan legal experts, they would say that, like to 0:17:18.364 --> 0:17:22.764 turn these into felony charges is not unheard of, but 0:17:23.004 --> 0:17:27.244 is unusual. And in a cistical sense, you would infer 0:17:27.484 --> 0:17:32.084 that Trump's status as a former president kind of as 0:17:32.164 --> 0:17:36.404 part of that. But you know, it's not great for 0:17:36.524 --> 0:17:39.284 the country that you have a active presidential candidate who's 0:17:39.284 --> 0:17:42.124 fifty to fifty to become president again, and that it 0:17:42.164 --> 0:17:44.124 took so long to bring these charges to trial, that 0:17:44.164 --> 0:17:46.324 the ones that do go to trial are I think, 0:17:46.364 --> 0:17:51.924 by anyone's definition, the weakest charges by in the more 0:17:52.004 --> 0:17:55.644 kind of partisan jurisdiction. It's not it's not ideal. 0:17:56.084 --> 0:17:59.244 No, it's not so, Nate. If I'm going to go 0:17:59.324 --> 0:18:01.564 back through this and try to metabolize all of it, 0:18:02.084 --> 0:18:05.044 what are the key Let's say two things I should 0:18:05.124 --> 0:18:07.364 take away from this analysis from our conversation. 0:18:08.924 --> 0:18:12.364 Look, I say number one, pay more attention to the 0:18:12.404 --> 0:18:16.564 marginal voter, not the cable news punted, but the marginal 0:18:16.644 --> 0:18:19.364 voter who was not paying attention to every detail in 0:18:19.404 --> 0:18:20.844 the white and the race for the White House, but 0:18:21.404 --> 0:18:27.964 who sees big banner headlines Trump convicted, Trump guilty. Number two, 0:18:28.564 --> 0:18:30.844 be patient as you wait for the polls, because these 0:18:30.844 --> 0:18:33.484 marginal voters are hard to reach. The quick and dirty 0:18:33.484 --> 0:18:35.204 polls may not reach them yet, so we're going on 0:18:35.284 --> 0:18:39.644 limited information. And number three, I think separate out the 0:18:39.724 --> 0:18:42.884 question of is this good or bad for the country 0:18:43.124 --> 0:18:46.244 from is this good or bad for Joe Biden and 0:18:46.284 --> 0:18:49.244 Donald Trump? Right, I mean, those are different questions. We've 0:18:49.284 --> 0:18:54.244 tried to mainly focus on the electoral impact here and 0:18:54.284 --> 0:19:08.364 not pretend that we're legal scholars. 0:19:10.004 --> 0:19:14.324 Nate, I am so excited for you. Week one of 0:19:14.364 --> 0:19:18.484 the World Series has wrapped. I unfortunately have left Las Vegas, 0:19:18.484 --> 0:19:20.884 so I haven't been able to play after the first 0:19:20.884 --> 0:19:24.884 two events because I have some other commitments. I'll be 0:19:24.924 --> 0:19:28.604 back next week. But you, while I've been traveling the 0:19:28.644 --> 0:19:33.004 world to glamorous New Haven, you've been running up quite 0:19:33.084 --> 0:19:36.964 the trip stack in the fifteen hundred dollars six max event, 0:19:37.164 --> 0:19:40.124 which is incredibly exciting. So you are in the money. 0:19:40.164 --> 0:19:42.244 So for people who don't play poker, that means that 0:19:42.644 --> 0:19:46.444 Nate has already cashed. So every single player eliminated from 0:19:46.444 --> 0:19:49.604 this point on is going to be making money. You 0:19:49.644 --> 0:19:52.684 are about to start day two of the tournament. So 0:19:52.804 --> 0:19:55.484 you found your first bag of the series, which means 0:19:55.524 --> 0:19:58.644 you've bagged up chips. There are over three hundred players left. 0:19:58.684 --> 0:20:00.444 I don't remember how many. I looked this up before 0:20:00.484 --> 0:20:03.004 we started taping, but I don't remember. It's like three 0:20:03.084 --> 0:20:06.124 hundred and thirty something like that. Does that sound right 0:20:06.164 --> 0:20:06.364 to you? 0:20:07.204 --> 0:20:09.204 And it's like, what those counts are? Delay? It's like, 0:20:09.804 --> 0:20:13.124 all right, so twenty five hundred started, of which about 0:20:13.164 --> 0:20:17.324 I think one to ninety remain, and I'm in fifteenth place. 0:20:17.404 --> 0:20:20.604 Sound yeah, So Nate, you are in fifteenth place, and 0:20:21.484 --> 0:20:24.524 we're going to talk about the three biggest mistakes I've 0:20:24.564 --> 0:20:26.764 been seeing at the tables in the week that I played. 0:20:27.164 --> 0:20:29.364 But it seems like before we get into that, it 0:20:29.364 --> 0:20:32.004 seems like you have probably not been making these mistakes 0:20:32.044 --> 0:20:36.364 because you are now fifteenth in chips. So just you know, 0:20:36.764 --> 0:20:40.604 first of all, congratulations, so well say thank you. We 0:20:40.724 --> 0:20:44.164 are say thank you, we are able to Okay, thank you, Maria. Okay, 0:20:44.284 --> 0:20:47.124 now I won't Okay. 0:20:48.524 --> 0:20:50.284 This is fun because we can put this episode in 0:20:50.284 --> 0:20:52.924 a little bit of a time capsule again in the 0:20:52.964 --> 0:20:56.084 realities of the highly produced podcast world. We are taping 0:20:56.124 --> 0:20:59.564 this on early Tuesday morning, Vegas time. It will come 0:20:59.564 --> 0:21:02.164 out in your feeds on Thursday. By the time you 0:21:02.204 --> 0:21:04.404 listen to this, the tournament that I'm playing right now 0:21:04.484 --> 0:21:08.084 will be over. I could have won my first bracelet. 0:21:08.444 --> 0:21:11.204 Much more likely suggests I will been knocked out at 0:21:11.244 --> 0:21:14.404 some point, you know, just after lunch today, and then 0:21:14.444 --> 0:21:17.564 be disappointed about that's about. 0:21:16.884 --> 0:21:19.204 Just after lunch. You're lasting through lunch. That's great. 0:21:20.124 --> 0:21:22.524 I mean, look, I do have a lot of chips, 0:21:23.164 --> 0:21:24.924 It's true, a lot of chips. I have a lot 0:21:24.924 --> 0:21:29.924 of short stacks at my table. So but like one 0:21:29.924 --> 0:21:31.524 thing I like to do if I make a Day 0:21:31.524 --> 0:21:34.924 two or Day three is to situate myself in terms 0:21:34.964 --> 0:21:39.764 of rational expectations, right, in this tournament. Last year, only 0:21:39.804 --> 0:21:43.364 ten percent of the field who made Day two made 0:21:43.364 --> 0:21:46.484 the final day Day three. Now I have a well 0:21:46.524 --> 0:21:49.684 above average chip stack, but even knowing that, I know 0:21:49.724 --> 0:21:52.164 that seventy five ish percent of the time, if I'm 0:21:52.164 --> 0:21:55.884 being realistic, my day will end with busting out of 0:21:55.884 --> 0:21:58.844 this tournament and deciding whether to enter a different tournament instead. 0:21:58.964 --> 0:22:02.124 So I think always kind of situating yourself and understand 0:22:02.164 --> 0:22:03.724 that you can have a great Day one and the 0:22:03.764 --> 0:22:05.884 odds are still against you. Just it's a very very 0:22:05.924 --> 0:22:08.324 hard marit to winning tournament or making a final table 0:22:08.364 --> 0:22:10.884 when there are twenty five hundred people. You need to 0:22:10.964 --> 0:22:14.284 kind of keep rolling the dice and having it coming 0:22:14.324 --> 0:22:16.524 up six is like three times in a row, or 0:22:16.564 --> 0:22:18.484 maybe more than that, more than that, right, like yeah, 0:22:18.524 --> 0:22:21.124 four times in a row. Right, It's pretty it's pretty 0:22:21.124 --> 0:22:24.644 hard for that to for that to happen. And having 0:22:24.644 --> 0:22:26.404 the first six and the second six come up six 0:22:26.524 --> 0:22:28.924 is is just kind of the first the first you know, 0:22:29.004 --> 0:22:30.924 halfway through the marathon, so to speak. 0:22:31.204 --> 0:22:33.444 Well, I think that that's a very healthy attitude. I 0:22:33.444 --> 0:22:36.244