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Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making

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Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova.

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Speaker 2: And I'm Nate Silver. Today on the show, we'll talk

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Speaker 2: about former President Donald Trump, who was convicted last week

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Speaker 2: on thirty four at Filamy Charges.

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Speaker 1: And we're also going to be talking about an update

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Speaker 1: from the first week of the World Series. I'm going

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Speaker 1: to go into some of the psychological mistakes I've seen

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Speaker 1: people make. But we're also going to give a big

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Speaker 1: shout out to Nate, who is deep in an event

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Speaker 1: of his own, fifteenth out of over twenty five hundred

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Speaker 1: players who started this event.

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Speaker 2: And this week Thursday night, if you listen to this

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Speaker 2: on Thursday, the NBA Finals begin. The Boston Celtics are

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Speaker 2: at home against Dallas Mavericks. There's a big gap between

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Speaker 2: betting markets and Cisco models. We will discuss why.

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Speaker 1: So, Nate, before we get into the Trump verdict, I

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Speaker 1: want to talk about I just want to nod to

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Speaker 1: the fact that you're even here this morning, so in

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Speaker 1: at like four thirty am, so I'm back on the

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Speaker 1: East coast right now taping this from New Haven. So

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Speaker 1: I get a text because as it turns out, I

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Speaker 1: forgot to turn off my phone, so that was good. Sorry,

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Speaker 1: it's okay, it's okay. Then I turned it off after

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Speaker 1: that from Nate saying, you know, just bagged for the

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Speaker 1: day in the fifteen hundred six Max. I am number

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Speaker 1: fifteen of like three hundred and something left in chips.

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Speaker 1: I'll still make the recording. And this is ten am

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Speaker 1: my time, so Eastern time at seven am, Vegas time,

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Speaker 1: and Nate is here and let the record show risky

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Speaker 1: business listeners. Nate is a much more devoted host than

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Speaker 1: I am, because damned if I would be recording after

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Speaker 1: bagging at two am, five hours later, I would have

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Speaker 1: sent a text to everyone being like, guys, we're really

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Speaker 1: really sorry, we can't record today. I am fifteenth in

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Speaker 1: chips and right now recording is negative ev for me.

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Speaker 1: So anyway, Nate, thank you for being here. Let's get

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Speaker 1: into Trump, so we'll.

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Speaker 2: Talk about that. But look, I mean it happens. We're

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Speaker 2: going to talk on this episode about kind of real

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Speaker 2: life intruding into best laid plans, because we'd be hypocrites

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Speaker 2: if we if we didn't. By the way, I don't

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Speaker 2: want to make this Trump thing about us and me also,

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Speaker 2: but It's another thing that, like, I did not plan

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Speaker 2: on Trump getting convicted of all these felony charges while

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Speaker 2: I was out at the World Series, and that also

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Speaker 2: kind of blew up a day. But you know, we'll

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Speaker 2: talk about Trump first on his own terms and then

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Speaker 2: in the polast I would get more into planning versus reality.

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Speaker 1: So let's do that. So, as our listeners probably know,

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Speaker 1: last week, former President Donald Trump was convicted guilty on

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Speaker 1: all thirty four charges that he was up on in

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Speaker 1: New York. So Nate, let's talk about that. Let's talk

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Speaker 1: about what that means. And actually let's start with the

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Speaker 1: fact that you said that you did not expect this

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Speaker 1: to happen while you were at the World Series. Is

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Speaker 1: that because you thought that the verdict would be later

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Speaker 1: or because you did not expect him to be convicted

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Speaker 1: on all of the thirty four charges.

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Speaker 2: Marie, I think you would probably have a better term

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Speaker 2: for this than I would. It's a cognitive load kind

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Speaker 2: of thing. Does some extent. I think people who are

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Speaker 2: able to navigate multiple tasks are able to kind of

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Speaker 2: shut things out and say I'm going to ignore this

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Speaker 2: for now. Right at some point I understand that like

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Speaker 2: Trump is before this jury, and if you've actually like

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Speaker 2: looked at prediction markets, I'll took about that on the

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Speaker 2: show from time to time. They had expected a verdict

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Speaker 2: last week, and in fact expected a guilty verdict more

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Speaker 2: likely than not. But no, this is not like two

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Speaker 2: kind of the smart sharp traders. This is not an

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Speaker 2: unexpected outcome. Trump had not been I didn't watch the trial,

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Speaker 2: I want to be clear about that, but by the

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Speaker 2: conventional wisdom people who watch it more closely, Trump had

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Speaker 2: had not offered very much compelling argumentation. He had fallen

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Speaker 2: asleep at various points during the trial. I think he's

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Speaker 2: a little bit defiant obviously about seeing it as an

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Speaker 2: opportunity for like a campaign exercise, spin exercise. And you know,

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Speaker 2: I assume he thinks he won't go to actual jail

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Speaker 2: at any point, although there's some chance in theory that

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Speaker 2: he could. We are not legal analysts. I don't know

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Speaker 2: if we're going not for much opinion about like is

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Speaker 2: this the right case quote unquote to bring against Trump.

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Speaker 2: I'm here to analyze public opinion a little bit more.

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Speaker 2: And our guess is about what effect this might have

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Speaker 2: on the polls most members of the public, if they

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Speaker 2: were aware of the trial at all, did not expect

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Speaker 2: a guilty verdict. I think because Trump has kind of

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Speaker 2: of skated by so often with with relatively few consequences

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Speaker 2: to become president after all for four years and may

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Speaker 2: become president again for another four years. Expected there not

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Speaker 2: to be consequences for his actions. So that's one reason

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Speaker 2: why you might expect it to affect the polls, is

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Speaker 2: because it comes as a surprise to to rank and

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Speaker 2: file voters.

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Speaker 1: But isn't it true? And please correct me if I'm

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Speaker 1: wrong that New York is the only state where he

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Speaker 1: has actually faced consequences because he did have to pay

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Speaker 1: for you know, the hush many payments he did, and

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Speaker 1: the defamation earlier, which.

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Speaker 2: Is a separate case, right, and each Jan Carol sexual

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Speaker 2: assault case. So yeah, New York is kind of and

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Speaker 2: and you know, I don't know how much you want

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Speaker 2: to get into the I mean, this was considered of

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Speaker 2: the four criminal cases, which is separate, by the way

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Speaker 2: from the defamation case, which is a civil case, right.

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Speaker 1: This one was considered the weakest. Is is kind of

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Speaker 1: the background that I had seen.

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Speaker 2: Correct, I mean, the way Republicans would convey it is

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Speaker 2: it's kind of like al Capone being convicted on income

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Speaker 2: tax fraud instead of all the other stuff that al Capone, the.

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Speaker 1: Guy was convicted, it didn't matter, that was on income

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Speaker 1: tax fraud.

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Speaker 2: Look, let me so let me you want to give

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Speaker 2: us a little bit. You know, I am worried a

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Speaker 2: little bit because the argument that worries me a bit

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Speaker 2: is that in authoritarian countries, oftentimes, if there is an

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Speaker 2: opposition leader who you want to disenfranchise, then you trump

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Speaker 2: up some legal charges that may range from technically correct

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Speaker 2: but exaggerated to entirely fabricated. You know, Alvin Bragg, the prosecutor,

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Speaker 2: had had talked about, I mean kind of campaigned on

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Speaker 2: being tougher on Trump. Right, it's in Manhattan, the place

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Speaker 2: where something like eighty five nine of the voters that

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Speaker 2: jurypool voted for Biden, although to be fair, there are

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Speaker 2: some of them consumed media from sites like truth Social

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Speaker 2: Trump's alternative to Twitter slash x. But look, the fact

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Speaker 2: that Trump has been prosecuted and criticized and persecuted that

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Speaker 2: may feed into his appeal for a certain strain of voter. However,

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Speaker 2: given that reality, which you cannot undo, for better or worse,

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Speaker 2: this point I think Biden is much better off with

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Speaker 2: a guilty verdict than an acquittal, right, because you can't

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Speaker 2: take back the fact that there are all these charges.

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Speaker 2: You can't take back the fact that, like you know,

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Speaker 2: to me, the election overturning January sixth stuff is a

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Speaker 2: couple of orders of magnitude, meaning literally hundreds of times

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Speaker 2: more serious than anything involving a former porna. But you know, again,

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Speaker 2: plans to always kind of match the deal reality. I

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Speaker 2: think the more buttoned up prosecutions in the January sixth

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Speaker 2: try have taken a long time. But anyway, Trump has

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Speaker 2: been convicted on this first set of charges. He will

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Speaker 2: almost for sure appeal. I would think the sentencing phase

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Speaker 2: will still occur in July, just before the Republican National Convention.

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Speaker 2: But that's where we stand.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And obviously I'm not an expert in the polling

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Speaker 1: part of this, And so I'm curious because you know,

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Speaker 1: I've been reading the news like I'm a good news consumer.

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Speaker 1: I've been following the trial. I'm still a little bit

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Speaker 1: bummed that it wasn't televised, but it wasn't so I

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Speaker 1: was following from Afar and I have read kind of

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Speaker 1: takes on both sides that, as you said, you know,

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Speaker 1: given that this happened and that we can't control the timing,

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Speaker 1: it's great that at least the verdict was guilty. However,

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Speaker 1: I have also seen kind of the other side that

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Speaker 1: this just strengthens Trump's position among a huge, kind of

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Speaker 1: swath of Trump voters and that a lot of people

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Speaker 1: see this as kind of part of his brand.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: This is the guy who said I can stand in

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Speaker 1: the middle of fIF if I haven't even shoot someone

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Speaker 1: and still be elected. And here he is saying, like, see,

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Speaker 1: I don't follow your laws, like I'm you know, I'm

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Speaker 1: a renegade. I'm my own man. And they're like, yeah,

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Speaker 1: you know, And this this just shows that, you know,

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Speaker 1: the judicial system is corrupt. So I guess there are

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Speaker 1: two separate questions here. One, do you have a sense

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Speaker 1: now or is it a little bit too early to

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Speaker 1: figure out how this is going to go down kind

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Speaker 1: of in the polls in the Trump base? And two,

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Speaker 1: and this is a kind of a separate question, let's

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Speaker 1: talk a little bit afterwards about the judicial impact of

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Speaker 1: this and kind of the delegitimization of the judicial system

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Speaker 1: that Trump is trying to push as a story.

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Speaker 2: So as gamblers or poker players, we think in terms

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Speaker 2: of the marginal effect on something. Right, if you beamed

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Speaker 2: to twenty twenty four from ten years ago, you'd be

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Speaker 2: shocked by a lot of things. You'd be shocked that

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Speaker 2: a a Town Trump had become president. You'd be be

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Speaker 2: that Trump had was running for president again and in

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Speaker 2: fact was tied her ahead in the polls, despite his

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Speaker 2: various criminal charges, and how kind of his first term

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Speaker 2: ended with January sixth, and with COVID, you'd be surprised

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Speaker 2: that the trial wasn't in some sense a bigger deal.

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Speaker 2: I mean, people have been pretty tuned out to this

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Speaker 2: until the verdict occurred, in to even people like me,

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Speaker 2: I guess, in the news business to some extent. However,

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Speaker 2: people in our world, Maria, the poker kind of gambling world,

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Speaker 2: think in terms of what's priced in quote unquote to

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Speaker 2: the stock. So if you look at betting markets a

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Speaker 2: week ago, which was just before when we're taking its

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Speaker 2: its Tuesday morning Vegas time, in prodiction markets, Trump had

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Speaker 2: a fifty three percent chance of winning the election before

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Speaker 2: the verdict. Now that is fifty one percent, So he

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Speaker 2: has follown by two percentage points relative to where he

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Speaker 2: was pre verdict. And by the way, because people assumed

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Speaker 2: before or that he was more likely than not to

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Speaker 2: be guilty. If this had come totally on the blue,

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Speaker 2: it might have been a bigger shift. But basically, like

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Speaker 2: people putting money on the line, follow the conventional wisdom

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Speaker 2: that outlined earlier, which is that you know, being a

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Speaker 2: convicted felon is probably bad, right, I mean, this is

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Speaker 2: kind of where we are probably in politics now. It's

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Speaker 2: certainly worse for Trump than being an acquitted, accused felon who,

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Speaker 2: even in New York could have been found guilty. I

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Speaker 2: mean imagine that, right, That would have been I think

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Speaker 2: a big feather in Trump's cap and a big disaster

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Speaker 2: for Biden. Now, with that said, for the most part,

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Speaker 2: now people are making educated guesses about the impact. There

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Speaker 2: is some kind of instant turnaround polling, some of that

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Speaker 2: shows Biden gaining a point or two. Net is actually

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Speaker 2: one poll from Morning Consult that has Biden actually losing

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Speaker 2: a point or so. But we don't have a high

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Speaker 2: quality traditional pollster going and doing a proper sample with

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Speaker 2: a proper amount of time, asking the right questions to

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Speaker 2: a demographically balanced sample, because that just takes a little

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Speaker 2: bit of time, and the Polsters apparently didn't necessarily plan

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Speaker 2: and advance with this verdict occurring either.

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Speaker 1: They're probably at the World Series of Poker with you.

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Speaker 2: You never you never know, Maria, I mean, you never

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Speaker 2: know who you'll see at the World Series. However, this

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Speaker 2: is important because Trip raised one hundred and forty one

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Speaker 2: million dollars in May, bolstered in part by this guilty verdict.

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Speaker 2: He had a massive amount of four eight hour fundraising.

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Speaker 2: I think money's a little bit overrated in presidential campaigns.

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Speaker 2: But the point is, yet his base is really enthused,

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Speaker 2: and by the way, Biden's base is really enthused too.

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Speaker 2: They're tweeting lots of memes about, you know, Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: in a prison jumpsuit and things like that. I wouldn't

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Speaker 2: have dared to even watch MSNBC. What would have happened

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Speaker 2: on Thursday and Friday and all of that right to me, though,

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Speaker 2: these are not the voter who matter because their votes

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Speaker 2: are already locked in. Instead, it's the kind of casual,

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Speaker 2: normy voter who says, no matter what else, Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: is a condicted felon, and even the New York Post,

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Speaker 2: for example, which I used. The New York Post is

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Speaker 2: like a benchmark of conservative but not totally red pilled

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Speaker 2: Fox News opinion. They're trying to in a competitive news market.

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Speaker 2: They're trying to, you know, they like the actual news.

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Speaker 2: And the New York Post had liked the banner headline

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Speaker 2: about Trump being guilty. They weren't trying to spin it

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Speaker 2: too much. So everybody saw this headline about Trump is

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Speaker 2: guilty of thirty six or thirty four. I mean, Trump

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Speaker 2: is guilty of thirty four.

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Speaker 1: Fallon each Inflation's rail. Inflation's rail.

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Speaker 2: Another problem for Bide. But look, but like part of

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Speaker 2: it is what are the basic, simple, stylized facts about

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Speaker 2: the election? You know, for Biden, the fact is that

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Speaker 2: prices are a lot higher than they were four years ago.

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Speaker 2: Now you can debate that and say, well, most that

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Speaker 2: happened in twenty twenty two, and inflation has slowed down now.

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Speaker 2: And by the way, you've had inflation all around the world,

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Speaker 2: and it's kind of maybe not entirely Biden's fault, and

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Speaker 2: and and the jobs market is good. But in politics,

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Speaker 2: when you're explaining you're losing, is the is the axiom,

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Speaker 2: It's simplar like when Biden is the fact that Biden

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Speaker 2: is eighty one years old, and I think often looks

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Speaker 2: an acts like it is a simple fact. By the way,

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Speaker 2: Trump is seventy seven, will turn seventy eight before too

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Speaker 2: much longer. You know, that fact is very hard for

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Speaker 2: Biden to overcome. You can spend and say, well, Trump

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Speaker 2: is almost as old and Biden Biden is, you know,

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Speaker 2: managing the toughest job in the world, and whatever else.

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Speaker 2: We have better healthcare, But like the more explaining you're doing,

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Speaker 2: you're losing it. In this case, it's Trump and his

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Speaker 2: team on their heels, right, They're the ones who are

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Speaker 2: saying this prostitution is unfair and how can you expect

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Speaker 2: a jury verdict in New York to be fair? And

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Speaker 2: blah blah blah blah blah blah.

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Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, and I'd actually I'd love to just pause

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Speaker 1: and just go deep, more deeply on to that point,

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Speaker 1: because I think that elections aside, right, since we don't

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Speaker 1: have the poll numbers yet, and we probably won't when

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Speaker 1: this podcast comes out in a few days, but what

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Speaker 1: we are already seeing is kind of what I'd alluded

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Speaker 1: to before. The arguments that Trump has been making for

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Speaker 1: quite some time about the fact that you can't trust

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Speaker 1: our judicial system, right, the judicial system is corrupt, et cetera,

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Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera. And he's been making this argument

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Speaker 1: at every single level of government. And I think that

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Speaker 1: that's kind of another a long term consequence that might

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Speaker 1: actually kind of last longer than this particular election, this

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Speaker 1: particular trial, because what he's doing is undermining one of

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Speaker 1: the pillars of democracy and the system that traditionally the

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Speaker 1: American public has had the most trust in. And now

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Speaker 1: we see that trust eroding because Trump keeps repeating over

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Speaker 1: and over and over these statements which are blatant lies.

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Speaker 1: But as a psychologist, I can say that it doesn't

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Speaker 1: matter because the more someone repeats a lie, it starts

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Speaker 1: to feeling like the truth.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Look, trust in almost every major American institution to

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Speaker 2: some extent. The military is an exception, but almost every

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Speaker 2: major American institution has declined over the past ten twenty

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Speaker 2: thirty years. How much Trump is a cause of that

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Speaker 2: versus a symptom is a debate I'm sure that academics

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Speaker 2: and historians will have for a long time. I mean,

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Speaker 2: you know, Trump takes advantage of low trust voters. We're

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Speaker 2: in a downward trust spiral in the US. Trump is

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Speaker 2: a major kind of cog in that machine, but not

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Speaker 2: the only cog. I mean, I don't know, I Maria

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Speaker 2: on the show. I want to be able to express

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Speaker 2: ambiguous or ambivalent opinions. I have ambivalent feelings about the

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Speaker 2: prosecution by Alvin Bragg. If I spent one hundred more

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Speaker 2: hours looking at it, I might have stronger feelings one

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Speaker 2: way or the other. But you know, I do think

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Speaker 2: it's probably right. I think if you kind of surveyed

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Speaker 2: most nonpartisan legal experts, they would say that, like to

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Speaker 2: turn these into felony charges is not unheard of, but

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Speaker 2: is unusual. And in a cistical sense, you would infer

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Speaker 2: that Trump's status as a former president kind of as

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Speaker 2: part of that. But you know, it's not great for

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Speaker 2: the country that you have a active presidential candidate who's

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Speaker 2: fifty to fifty to become president again, and that it

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Speaker 2: took so long to bring these charges to trial, that

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Speaker 2: the ones that do go to trial are I think,

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Speaker 2: by anyone's definition, the weakest charges by in the more

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Speaker 2: kind of partisan jurisdiction. It's not it's not ideal.

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Speaker 1: No, it's not so, Nate. If I'm going to go

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Speaker 1: back through this and try to metabolize all of it,

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Speaker 1: what are the key Let's say two things I should

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Speaker 1: take away from this analysis from our conversation.

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Speaker 2: Look, I say number one, pay more attention to the

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Speaker 2: marginal voter, not the cable news punted, but the marginal

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Speaker 2: voter who was not paying attention to every detail in

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Speaker 2: the white and the race for the White House, but

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Speaker 2: who sees big banner headlines Trump convicted, Trump guilty. Number two,

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Speaker 2: be patient as you wait for the polls, because these

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Speaker 2: marginal voters are hard to reach. The quick and dirty

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Speaker 2: polls may not reach them yet, so we're going on

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Speaker 2: limited information. And number three, I think separate out the

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Speaker 2: question of is this good or bad for the country

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Speaker 2: from is this good or bad for Joe Biden and

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump? Right, I mean, those are different questions. We've

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Speaker 2: tried to mainly focus on the electoral impact here and

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Speaker 2: not pretend that we're legal scholars.

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Speaker 1: Nate, I am so excited for you. Week one of

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Speaker 1: the World Series has wrapped. I unfortunately have left Las Vegas,

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Speaker 1: so I haven't been able to play after the first

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Speaker 1: two events because I have some other commitments. I'll be

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Speaker 1: back next week. But you, while I've been traveling the

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Speaker 1: world to glamorous New Haven, you've been running up quite

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00:19:33,084 --> 00:19:36,964
Speaker 1: the trip stack in the fifteen hundred dollars six max event,

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Speaker 1: which is incredibly exciting. So you are in the money.

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Speaker 1: So for people who don't play poker, that means that

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Speaker 1: Nate has already cashed. So every single player eliminated from

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Speaker 1: this point on is going to be making money. You

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00:19:49,644 --> 00:19:52,684
Speaker 1: are about to start day two of the tournament. So

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Speaker 1: you found your first bag of the series, which means

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Speaker 1: you've bagged up chips. There are over three hundred players left.

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Speaker 1: I don't remember how many. I looked this up before

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Speaker 1: we started taping, but I don't remember. It's like three

350
00:20:03,084 --> 00:20:06,124
Speaker 1: hundred and thirty something like that. Does that sound right

351
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Speaker 1: to you?

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Speaker 2: And it's like, what those counts are? Delay? It's like,

353
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Speaker 2: all right, so twenty five hundred started, of which about

354
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Speaker 2: I think one to ninety remain, and I'm in fifteenth place.

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Speaker 1: Sound yeah, So Nate, you are in fifteenth place, and

356
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Speaker 1: we're going to talk about the three biggest mistakes I've

357
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Speaker 1: been seeing at the tables in the week that I played.

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Speaker 1: But it seems like before we get into that, it

359
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Speaker 1: seems like you have probably not been making these mistakes

360
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Speaker 1: because you are now fifteenth in chips. So just you know,

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Speaker 1: first of all, congratulations, so well say thank you. We

362
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Speaker 1: are say thank you, we are able to Okay, thank you, Maria. Okay,

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Speaker 1: now I won't Okay.

364
00:20:48,524 --> 00:20:50,284
Speaker 2: This is fun because we can put this episode in

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Speaker 2: a little bit of a time capsule again in the

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Speaker 2: realities of the highly produced podcast world. We are taping

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Speaker 2: this on early Tuesday morning, Vegas time. It will come

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Speaker 2: out in your feeds on Thursday. By the time you

369
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Speaker 2: listen to this, the tournament that I'm playing right now

370
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Speaker 2: will be over. I could have won my first bracelet.

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Speaker 2: Much more likely suggests I will been knocked out at

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Speaker 2: some point, you know, just after lunch today, and then

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Speaker 2: be disappointed about that's about.

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Speaker 1: Just after lunch. You're lasting through lunch. That's great.

375
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Speaker 2: I mean, look, I do have a lot of chips,

376
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Speaker 2: It's true, a lot of chips. I have a lot

377
00:21:24,924 --> 00:21:29,924
Speaker 2: of short stacks at my table. So but like one

378
00:21:29,924 --> 00:21:31,524
Speaker 2: thing I like to do if I make a Day

379
00:21:31,524 --> 00:21:34,924
Speaker 2: two or Day three is to situate myself in terms

380
00:21:34,964 --> 00:21:39,764
Speaker 2: of rational expectations, right, in this tournament. Last year, only

381
00:21:39,804 --> 00:21:43,364
Speaker 2: ten percent of the field who made Day two made

382
00:21:43,364 --> 00:21:46,484
Speaker 2: the final day Day three. Now I have a well

383
00:21:46,524 --> 00:21:49,684
Speaker 2: above average chip stack, but even knowing that, I know

384
00:21:49,724 --> 00:21:52,164
Speaker 2: that seventy five ish percent of the time, if I'm

385
00:21:52,164 --> 00:21:55,884
Speaker 2: being realistic, my day will end with busting out of

386
00:21:55,884 --> 00:21:58,844
Speaker 2: this tournament and deciding whether to enter a different tournament instead.

387
00:21:58,964 --> 00:22:02,124
Speaker 2: So I think always kind of situating yourself and understand

388
00:22:02,164 --> 00:22:03,724
Speaker 2: that you can have a great Day one and the

389
00:22:03,764 --> 00:22:05,884
Speaker 2: odds are still against you. Just it's a very very

390
00:22:05,924 --> 00:22:08,324
Speaker 2: hard marit to winning tournament or making a final table

391
00:22:08,364 --> 00:22:10,884
Speaker 2: when there are twenty five hundred people. You need to

392
00:22:10,964 --> 00:22:14,284
Speaker 2: kind of keep rolling the dice and having it coming

393
00:22:14,324 --> 00:22:16,524
Speaker 2: up six is like three times in a row, or

394
00:22:16,564 --> 00:22:18,484
Speaker 2: maybe more than that, more than that, right, like yeah,

395
00:22:18,524 --> 00:22:21,124
Speaker 2: four times in a row. Right, It's pretty it's pretty

396
00:22:21,124 --> 00:22:24,644
Speaker 2: hard for that to for that to happen. And having

397
00:22:24,644 --> 00:22:26,404
Speaker 2: the first six and the second six come up six

398
00:22:26,524 --> 00:22:28,924
Speaker 2: is is just kind of the first the first you know,

399
00:22:29,004 --> 00:22:30,924
Speaker 2: halfway through the marathon, so to speak.

400
00:22:31,204 --> 00:22:33,444
Speaker 1: Well, I think that that's a very healthy attitude. I

401
00:22:33,444 --> 00:22:36,244
Speaker 1: think too many people get very excited about having lots

402
00:22:36,244 --> 00:22:39,604
Speaker 1: of chips. That said, having lots of chips is better

403
00:22:39,644 --> 00:22:42,804
Speaker 1: than not having lots of chips. And from what I

404
00:22:42,884 --> 00:22:46,164
Speaker 1: know about your playing style, you're an aggressive player who

405
00:22:46,204 --> 00:22:49,204
Speaker 1: knows how to push that advantage, which I think is

406
00:22:49,244 --> 00:22:52,124
Speaker 1: really important. And I think you have a very good

407
00:22:52,164 --> 00:22:56,004
Speaker 1: attitude coming into this. So now let's you know, have

408
00:22:56,084 --> 00:22:59,404
Speaker 1: a positive mindset and say that this is going to

409
00:22:59,444 --> 00:23:03,164
Speaker 1: be your first bracelet or at least a final table.

410
00:23:04,084 --> 00:23:06,844
Speaker 1: And I say that completely selflessly because we have no

411
00:23:06,924 --> 00:23:10,644
Speaker 1: swap in this event, because I have not played it.

412
00:23:11,604 --> 00:23:14,804
Speaker 1: So so this is this is all you, and I

413
00:23:14,844 --> 00:23:18,284
Speaker 1: really I wish you the best, and let me give

414
00:23:18,324 --> 00:23:21,164
Speaker 1: you some advice for the three top things not to

415
00:23:21,244 --> 00:23:22,844
Speaker 1: do that I've seen.

416
00:23:22,924 --> 00:23:25,884
Speaker 2: Yeah, what have you been What have you been seeing that? Uh,

417
00:23:26,164 --> 00:23:27,404
Speaker 2: that players shouldn't be doing?

418
00:23:27,844 --> 00:23:30,484
Speaker 1: All right, So I've been seeing a lot of things

419
00:23:30,524 --> 00:23:33,884
Speaker 1: that players shouldn't be doing. So I played, let's say,

420
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Speaker 1: I played two World Series events this past week, and

421
00:23:36,364 --> 00:23:39,844
Speaker 1: then I played a win event, so the Win eleven

422
00:23:39,924 --> 00:23:43,044
Speaker 1: hundred event as well. So I've seen a few different

423
00:23:43,044 --> 00:23:46,444
Speaker 1: player pools. And this is me generalizing from everything that

424
00:23:46,484 --> 00:23:49,404
Speaker 1: I've been seeing, what are the three most common mistakes?

425
00:23:49,804 --> 00:23:53,604
Speaker 1: By far? Number one that I have seen is what's

426
00:23:53,604 --> 00:23:57,444
Speaker 1: known in psychology as the sunk cost fallacy, and what

427
00:23:57,524 --> 00:24:00,884
Speaker 1: the sunk cost fallacy means is that you make a

428
00:24:00,884 --> 00:24:05,724
Speaker 1: decision and then when the decision environment changes, when the

429
00:24:05,724 --> 00:24:09,564
Speaker 1: information changes, when the data change, and your decision no

430
00:24:09,604 --> 00:24:13,844
Speaker 1: longer makes sense. Instead of walking away, instead of saying, Okay,

431
00:24:13,884 --> 00:24:15,844
Speaker 1: I made the right decision before it's no longer the

432
00:24:15,884 --> 00:24:19,004
Speaker 1: right decision, you stay. You stick with it. You put

433
00:24:19,164 --> 00:24:21,804
Speaker 1: good money after bad, you know, good time after bad.

434
00:24:22,124 --> 00:24:24,164
Speaker 1: You stay in that decision because you say, well, I've

435
00:24:24,204 --> 00:24:28,604
Speaker 1: already invested so much. In poker, there's a concept known

436
00:24:28,644 --> 00:24:32,204
Speaker 1: as pot committed, meaning I've already put so many chips

437
00:24:32,204 --> 00:24:35,044
Speaker 1: in the middle that I am committed to the pot.

438
00:24:35,164 --> 00:24:36,924
Speaker 1: And I think that that is actually one of the

439
00:24:37,124 --> 00:24:40,364
Speaker 1: stupidest concepts in poker. I mean, I just think it's asinine,

440
00:24:40,684 --> 00:24:43,644
Speaker 1: like so so dumb. I cannot I can't even begin

441
00:24:43,724 --> 00:24:47,724
Speaker 1: to say. Because decisions are not made in a vacuum.

442
00:24:48,004 --> 00:24:51,004
Speaker 1: It does not matter how many chips you put in

443
00:24:51,044 --> 00:24:53,524
Speaker 1: one move ago you know, pre flop or on the flop,

444
00:24:53,964 --> 00:24:56,004
Speaker 1: as long as you have chips left. If you now

445
00:24:56,124 --> 00:24:58,204
Speaker 1: know that your beat right, if you now know that

446
00:24:58,244 --> 00:25:03,884
Speaker 1: the decision environment has changed, fold walk away, keep the

447
00:25:03,964 --> 00:25:06,484
Speaker 1: chips that you have. It's a huge lesson for life,

448
00:25:06,484 --> 00:25:09,804
Speaker 1: by the way, being able to walk away, and I

449
00:25:09,844 --> 00:25:12,364
Speaker 1: still have something left, and I should, you know, I

450
00:25:12,404 --> 00:25:14,844
Speaker 1: should be able to use that. I think that's a

451
00:25:14,884 --> 00:25:17,364
Speaker 1: really important life skill. But one of the most important

452
00:25:17,364 --> 00:25:19,964
Speaker 1: that I've learned from poker is kind of that. And

453
00:25:20,364 --> 00:25:22,284
Speaker 1: let me tell you a specific hand where I saw

454
00:25:22,324 --> 00:25:25,444
Speaker 1: this play out that I think is kind of illustrative

455
00:25:26,324 --> 00:25:30,124
Speaker 1: of this idea. So in this hand, I think we're

456
00:25:30,124 --> 00:25:33,524
Speaker 1: playing eight handed, and I raise from under the gun,

457
00:25:33,804 --> 00:25:36,844
Speaker 1: so I'm first to act, and I have pocket kings,

458
00:25:37,484 --> 00:25:41,364
Speaker 1: so I raise, and then another player three bets me,

459
00:25:41,404 --> 00:25:44,164
Speaker 1: so he re raises from the button. So that's, you know,

460
00:25:44,284 --> 00:25:47,564
Speaker 1: very strong position. Obviously he'll always be lost to act.

461
00:25:47,644 --> 00:25:50,884
Speaker 1: The button is yours, your best position. I don't love,

462
00:25:51,004 --> 00:25:53,044
Speaker 1: you know, playing huge pots out of positions. So I

463
00:25:53,084 --> 00:25:55,964
Speaker 1: four bet, which means I then reraise him. At this point,

464
00:25:56,004 --> 00:25:59,004
Speaker 1: the only hand I lose to is aces, and I'm

465
00:25:59,044 --> 00:26:01,844
Speaker 1: not particularly you know, you can't see monsters under the bed,

466
00:26:02,124 --> 00:26:04,684
Speaker 1: so I reraise and he calls and we go to

467
00:26:05,124 --> 00:26:07,644
Speaker 1: the flop, so it's just the two of us and

468
00:26:07,724 --> 00:26:10,724
Speaker 1: the flop comes Queen High and it's all hearts. I

469
00:26:10,724 --> 00:26:15,084
Speaker 1: think it's six or eight Queen, all hearts. I do

470
00:26:15,124 --> 00:26:21,084
Speaker 1: not have the King of Hearts. I check, and he bets,

471
00:26:21,124 --> 00:26:24,164
Speaker 1: and I call, even though you know, at this point

472
00:26:24,204 --> 00:26:27,364
Speaker 1: I could be drawing dead, right, he could have Ace

473
00:26:27,444 --> 00:26:29,764
Speaker 1: King of Hearts, right, he could have Ace Jack of Hearts.

474
00:26:30,124 --> 00:26:33,044
Speaker 1: He could already have flopped the nuts. And he beats

475
00:26:33,084 --> 00:26:36,884
Speaker 1: pretty big, but I can't fault to one bet and

476
00:26:36,924 --> 00:26:39,644
Speaker 1: then the turn is an off suit king. So at

477
00:26:39,644 --> 00:26:43,684
Speaker 1: this point I now have top set, and so I

478
00:26:43,844 --> 00:26:47,444
Speaker 1: check and he bets again, but he bets really small, right,

479
00:26:47,604 --> 00:26:50,404
Speaker 1: So he bets like a quarter pot, and I was like, okay,

480
00:26:50,604 --> 00:26:53,044
Speaker 1: you do not have a flush right at this point,

481
00:26:54,004 --> 00:26:55,964
Speaker 1: it really just looked like he just did not like

482
00:26:56,004 --> 00:27:00,524
Speaker 1: that king at all. And so I raise because you know,

483
00:27:00,564 --> 00:27:04,924
Speaker 1: that seems like the appropriate thing to do. And he

484
00:27:05,004 --> 00:27:07,724
Speaker 1: does not have that many chips left behind, and you

485
00:27:07,764 --> 00:27:11,644
Speaker 1: can just see him just completely pained, and then just

486
00:27:11,724 --> 00:27:13,844
Speaker 1: like shakes his head and like puts all his chips

487
00:27:13,844 --> 00:27:17,564
Speaker 1: in the middle and he turns over pocket queens and

488
00:27:17,564 --> 00:27:19,444
Speaker 1: he's like, I knew I was be And I was like, well,

489
00:27:19,564 --> 00:27:22,124
Speaker 1: you know, if you don't say that, right, if you

490
00:27:22,204 --> 00:27:24,444
Speaker 1: know your beat just fold. He still had a lot

491
00:27:24,484 --> 00:27:26,724
Speaker 1: of chips behind, but he just couldn't let it go.

492
00:27:27,204 --> 00:27:30,124
Speaker 1: He had flopped, you know, top set. He knew that

493
00:27:30,164 --> 00:27:33,204
Speaker 1: he was kind of ahead of me, and he even

494
00:27:33,244 --> 00:27:36,324
Speaker 1: though the world changed on the turn, he just couldn't

495
00:27:36,364 --> 00:27:38,324
Speaker 1: acknowledge it and he couldn't walk away. And I've seen

496
00:27:38,324 --> 00:27:39,244
Speaker 1: that so many times.

497
00:27:39,924 --> 00:27:42,484
Speaker 2: I mean, look, in his defense, he could think that

498
00:27:42,604 --> 00:27:44,684
Speaker 2: you have a flush and he has some outs to

499
00:27:44,764 --> 00:27:50,204
Speaker 2: draw to a full house. But yeah, poker players stick

500
00:27:50,244 --> 00:27:54,924
Speaker 2: their chips in almost as a form of self punishment sometimes,

501
00:27:55,004 --> 00:27:59,884
Speaker 2: you know, I'm a fish. And by the one thing,

502
00:27:59,964 --> 00:28:03,244
Speaker 2: as you were speaking, Maria, you know, obviously if there's

503
00:28:03,284 --> 00:28:06,364
Speaker 2: new information, I think also people need to give themselves

504
00:28:07,204 --> 00:28:11,684
Speaker 2: permission to read things, things right, to say, maybe there's

505
00:28:11,724 --> 00:28:14,524
Speaker 2: not new information. But I've had time to think about

506
00:28:14,564 --> 00:28:16,604
Speaker 2: this more, and I just don't think it's plausible that

507
00:28:16,644 --> 00:28:19,804
Speaker 2: my opponent is bluffing very often. Here. I had time

508
00:28:19,844 --> 00:28:21,644
Speaker 2: while the dealer was dealing the cards to think about,

509
00:28:21,684 --> 00:28:24,044
Speaker 2: like what bluff would Maria have in her range? And

510
00:28:24,044 --> 00:28:26,124
Speaker 2: like in this spot, it's hard on these flushboards with

511
00:28:26,164 --> 00:28:32,044
Speaker 2: the king coming, you know, making a life choice belatedly,

512
00:28:32,124 --> 00:28:36,404
Speaker 2: that's a positive life choice is still better than saying

513
00:28:36,404 --> 00:28:40,564
Speaker 2: it's a sunk cost. I can't make any change at all. Okay, Maria,

514
00:28:40,764 --> 00:28:45,004
Speaker 2: let's go into your tip or mistake. Yeah, tips for

515
00:28:45,084 --> 00:28:47,124
Speaker 2: last week. This speaks about mistakes were in the messy

516
00:28:47,244 --> 00:28:49,644
Speaker 2: real world. Now, what's mistake number two you've been seeing

517
00:28:49,644 --> 00:28:49,964
Speaker 2: at the time.

518
00:28:50,004 --> 00:28:52,844
Speaker 1: Yes, the mistake number two is actually probably one of

519
00:28:52,884 --> 00:28:57,124
Speaker 1: the most famous biases in psychology. And so it's always

520
00:28:57,164 --> 00:28:59,084
Speaker 1: so fun to me as a psychologist to see the

521
00:28:59,124 --> 00:29:02,324
Speaker 1: things that you know that theoretically should be very strong,

522
00:29:02,404 --> 00:29:05,204
Speaker 1: see them actually in reality play out this way. And

523
00:29:05,244 --> 00:29:09,284
Speaker 1: that's risk aversion. So this is part of Danny Knnoman

524
00:29:09,524 --> 00:29:14,164
Speaker 1: and Amos Turiski's famous prospect theory right where losses and

525
00:29:14,284 --> 00:29:17,764
Speaker 1: gains are looked at differently, and depending on how you

526
00:29:17,804 --> 00:29:20,844
Speaker 1: frame losses, depending on how you frame gains, people will

527
00:29:20,924 --> 00:29:24,044
Speaker 1: be more or less risk averse. And so what I

528
00:29:24,124 --> 00:29:29,044
Speaker 1: have seen is that people have been too risk averse

529
00:29:29,164 --> 00:29:31,404
Speaker 1: at stages of the tournament where they should be taking

530
00:29:31,524 --> 00:29:34,044
Speaker 1: risks because they value kind of their tournament life too

531
00:29:34,124 --> 00:29:37,124
Speaker 1: much and they don't understand how tournament poker works. So,

532
00:29:37,444 --> 00:29:39,724
Speaker 1: as an example, I saw a hand I was not

533
00:29:39,844 --> 00:29:44,084
Speaker 1: in this hand where someone raised, you know, someone re raised,

534
00:29:44,524 --> 00:29:47,444
Speaker 1: and then this person ended up folding Ace King face up,

535
00:29:47,484 --> 00:29:50,364
Speaker 1: aas King suited, having like thirty big blinds left saying

536
00:29:50,404 --> 00:29:53,044
Speaker 1: you know it's too early, it's too early for me

537
00:29:53,124 --> 00:29:56,484
Speaker 1: to flip, and it was just such a bad mistake.

538
00:29:56,644 --> 00:29:59,004
Speaker 1: Right when I saw that, I was like, what do

539
00:29:59,044 --> 00:30:01,604
Speaker 1: you mean it's too early to flip? You have thirty

540
00:30:01,604 --> 00:30:04,484
Speaker 1: big lines. That's not that you know you should be flipping.

541
00:30:04,524 --> 00:30:08,404
Speaker 1: You have to take those spots. If you're valuing your

542
00:30:08,524 --> 00:30:12,764
Speaker 1: tournament life, valuing not busting so incredibly highly. That means

543
00:30:12,764 --> 00:30:15,244
Speaker 1: that either you're playing too high. You know you're in

544
00:30:15,284 --> 00:30:18,484
Speaker 1: the wrong spot, because that's not the rational decision to make.

545
00:30:19,084 --> 00:30:23,524
Speaker 1: The flip side of this. At EPT Paris back in February,

546
00:30:24,004 --> 00:30:26,444
Speaker 1: which was won by Barney Boatman, who's kind of an

547
00:30:26,684 --> 00:30:30,764
Speaker 1: old school legend, there was a really great televised hand

548
00:30:31,244 --> 00:30:34,444
Speaker 1: where they were at the final table, the final two tables,

549
00:30:34,644 --> 00:30:36,804
Speaker 1: and someone ran kind of a big bluff against him,

550
00:30:37,444 --> 00:30:39,444
Speaker 1: putting him to the test. Right, Barney had to call

551
00:30:40,324 --> 00:30:41,724
Speaker 1: off all of his chips and it was a really

552
00:30:41,764 --> 00:30:45,284
Speaker 1: hard call. Barney finally made it, and when his opponent

553
00:30:45,364 --> 00:30:48,644
Speaker 1: kind of turned over the cards saw what Barney had

554
00:30:48,644 --> 00:30:51,644
Speaker 1: called with he said, how could you call for your

555
00:30:51,684 --> 00:30:54,204
Speaker 1: tournament life here? Like, you can't do that? And Barney

556
00:30:54,244 --> 00:30:56,244
Speaker 1: looks at him and says, it's my tournament life, not

557
00:30:56,324 --> 00:31:00,604
Speaker 1: my actual life. It's just such a great line because

558
00:31:00,604 --> 00:31:02,924
Speaker 1: that's how you have to write. It's fine to be

559
00:31:02,964 --> 00:31:06,244
Speaker 1: too risk averse when it's your actual life. It's when

560
00:31:06,284 --> 00:31:08,404
Speaker 1: you're playing in a tournament. You have to make those

561
00:31:08,444 --> 00:31:10,844
Speaker 1: calculated risks, have to take those slips, you have to

562
00:31:10,844 --> 00:31:13,924
Speaker 1: take those spots, otherwise you ain't ever winning a tournament.

563
00:31:14,764 --> 00:31:18,124
Speaker 2: Ria, I got news for you now that we're into

564
00:31:18,124 --> 00:31:20,204
Speaker 2: the second week of the World Series of Poker that

565
00:31:20,284 --> 00:31:24,604
Speaker 2: like that virginal risk aversion bubble has popped a little bit.

566
00:31:24,964 --> 00:31:28,524
Speaker 2: In the fifteen hundred yesterday, all my chips, or ninety

567
00:31:28,524 --> 00:31:31,324
Speaker 2: five percent of them are from making hands and extracting value.

568
00:31:31,924 --> 00:31:33,684
Speaker 2: The bluss were not working. I lost money on my

569
00:31:33,684 --> 00:31:35,484
Speaker 2: bluff yesterday, and I'm so many people believe it or

570
00:31:35,484 --> 00:31:39,524
Speaker 2: not actually like to fold to Sometimes people were getting

571
00:31:39,524 --> 00:31:41,604
Speaker 2: a little bit rambunctious. I think you kind of get

572
00:31:41,644 --> 00:31:44,564
Speaker 2: into this point in the tournament where maybe you have

573
00:31:44,724 --> 00:31:47,724
Speaker 2: fired four or five or six entries. People are getting

574
00:31:47,764 --> 00:31:52,204
Speaker 2: though a little bit friskier, I think, with kind of

575
00:31:52,244 --> 00:31:56,124
Speaker 2: a lot of these smaller events. And the Mystery Millions

576
00:31:56,124 --> 00:31:58,924
Speaker 2: is a tournament where you can enter like literally eight

577
00:31:59,004 --> 00:32:01,724
Speaker 2: times if you want the first event after that. See

578
00:32:01,764 --> 00:32:04,484
Speaker 2: people who are a little bit on tilt from you know,

579
00:32:04,524 --> 00:32:07,044
Speaker 2: literally as we're playing, by the way, people are drawing

580
00:32:07,164 --> 00:32:10,764
Speaker 2: prizes from this bounty pool winning a million bucks where

581
00:32:10,764 --> 00:32:12,884
Speaker 2: two and fifty thousand bucks, right, and here you are

582
00:32:13,364 --> 00:32:16,284
Speaker 2: plotting along your fifteen hundred dollars tournament. That was encouraging

583
00:32:16,284 --> 00:32:18,484
Speaker 2: I think a lot more risk taking. So so this

584
00:32:18,604 --> 00:32:20,644
Speaker 2: is self corrects a little bit. But I agree in

585
00:32:20,724 --> 00:32:23,884
Speaker 2: CHERYLD that as a default, as a default, even in

586
00:32:23,924 --> 00:32:28,204
Speaker 2: the poker world, as default, people are usually too risk averse.

587
00:32:29,364 --> 00:32:31,244
Speaker 2: For the Barney Boatmen reason that it's just a fucking

588
00:32:31,244 --> 00:32:34,364
Speaker 2: poker tournament, right, I understand that you make day two,

589
00:32:34,484 --> 00:32:36,524
Speaker 2: day three, the money can be significant. It's just a

590
00:32:36,524 --> 00:32:37,404
Speaker 2: fucking poker tournament.

591
00:32:37,564 --> 00:32:38,924
Speaker 1: That's that's very true.

592
00:32:38,964 --> 00:32:40,804
Speaker 2: If you're putting your life on your line to enter

593
00:32:40,844 --> 00:32:43,084
Speaker 2: the tournament, then you've made a bad decision in the

594
00:32:43,084 --> 00:32:46,324
Speaker 2: first place. So I can't really guide you. But but

595
00:32:46,644 --> 00:32:48,924
Speaker 2: this is kind of a laboratory where you can repeat

596
00:32:48,964 --> 00:32:51,764
Speaker 2: the experiment and enter a different tournament, especially the World Series.

597
00:32:51,804 --> 00:32:54,604
Speaker 2: And so don't be a knit is one of our

598
00:32:54,644 --> 00:32:59,364
Speaker 2: favorite things to say, and it means a neurotic risk averse,

599
00:33:00,124 --> 00:33:03,484
Speaker 2: you know, turn in the punch bowl basically, Maria.

600
00:33:03,564 --> 00:33:07,364
Speaker 1: Absolutely, So that's you know, that's number two. But I'm

601
00:33:07,404 --> 00:33:09,724
Speaker 1: glad that you're saying that it's been self correcting because

602
00:33:09,764 --> 00:33:12,844
Speaker 1: that actually goes to mistake number three that I've been seeing,

603
00:33:13,164 --> 00:33:18,404
Speaker 1: which is people becoming too emotional and making decisions based

604
00:33:18,444 --> 00:33:21,444
Speaker 1: on how they're feeling and what just happened, as opposed

605
00:33:21,484 --> 00:33:25,084
Speaker 1: to based on data and based on kind of what

606
00:33:25,124 --> 00:33:28,484
Speaker 1: they should be using in their logical rational decision making.

607
00:33:29,044 --> 00:33:34,284
Speaker 1: So they're going on tilt and basically making just really

608
00:33:34,284 --> 00:33:37,844
Speaker 1: egregious errors. So once again, you know, I think it's

609
00:33:37,844 --> 00:33:42,164
Speaker 1: always good to have an example. I was playing this

610
00:33:42,444 --> 00:33:44,524
Speaker 1: was I think it might have even been during the

611
00:33:44,564 --> 00:33:46,724
Speaker 1: five thousand dollars event. No, it was a five hundred

612
00:33:46,724 --> 00:33:49,924
Speaker 1: dollars event, so the second event, slightly smaller event. It

613
00:33:50,004 --> 00:33:52,004
Speaker 1: was a freeze out, which is important, which means people

614
00:33:52,044 --> 00:33:54,844
Speaker 1: can't read buy this is not the mystery bounty. And

615
00:33:55,004 --> 00:33:58,164
Speaker 1: I had a gentleman to my left who'd been, you know,

616
00:33:58,564 --> 00:34:01,524
Speaker 1: playing fairly. Well I didn't know him, but I think

617
00:34:01,644 --> 00:34:04,324
Speaker 1: he played a lot of poker, and then he got

618
00:34:04,364 --> 00:34:08,644
Speaker 1: into a spot against someone else where he was you know,

619
00:34:08,844 --> 00:34:11,324
Speaker 1: on the river and facing a huge bet and he

620
00:34:11,404 --> 00:34:13,324
Speaker 1: needed to decide whether or not he was going to call,

621
00:34:13,684 --> 00:34:16,564
Speaker 1: and he just tanked. And it's a pretty turbo structure, right.

622
00:34:16,564 --> 00:34:19,284
Speaker 1: The levels are thirty minutes long.

623
00:34:19,644 --> 00:34:21,924
Speaker 2: Meaning that you're a chip count dwindles and real or

624
00:34:21,964 --> 00:34:23,204
Speaker 2: in absolute terms.

625
00:34:23,084 --> 00:34:25,404
Speaker 1: Yeah, so very quickly, so you need to act quickly.

626
00:34:25,444 --> 00:34:27,524
Speaker 1: So here's this guy and he's been thinking for two minutes,

627
00:34:27,804 --> 00:34:32,684
Speaker 1: so I very I think nicely, and the tables agreed, said,

628
00:34:33,444 --> 00:34:35,084
Speaker 1: you know, I know you're in a tough spot, but

629
00:34:35,364 --> 00:34:36,964
Speaker 1: just so you know, I'm going to call the clock

630
00:34:38,004 --> 00:34:41,484
Speaker 1: in one minute, because you know, taking two minutes if

631
00:34:41,524 --> 00:34:43,044
Speaker 1: you think about it. I said, I was going to

632
00:34:43,124 --> 00:34:45,644
Speaker 1: call it at three minutes, right, so you're ten percent,

633
00:34:46,124 --> 00:34:47,764
Speaker 1: which is ten percent of the time. And I gave

634
00:34:47,844 --> 00:34:50,764
Speaker 1: him that warning and then he just like he you know,

635
00:34:51,004 --> 00:34:53,684
Speaker 1: puts in the call and it's the wrong call and

636
00:34:53,724 --> 00:34:56,004
Speaker 1: he loses the pot. And then he turns to me

637
00:34:56,044 --> 00:34:58,644
Speaker 1: and he says, well, it's only it's only a turbo.

638
00:34:58,684 --> 00:35:02,284
Speaker 1: If you're used to playing bullshit live events, this is

639
00:35:02,324 --> 00:35:04,524
Speaker 1: not a turbo structure. I was like, well, empirically it

640
00:35:04,604 --> 00:35:07,044
Speaker 1: is anyway, very next hand, I'm on the button and

641
00:35:07,084 --> 00:35:10,644
Speaker 1: he's in the small blind and I raise and he

642
00:35:10,724 --> 00:35:12,644
Speaker 1: just looks at me, and he goes, well, I'm all in,

643
00:35:12,764 --> 00:35:15,404
Speaker 1: and he just shoves and rips it, and then the

644
00:35:15,444 --> 00:35:18,244
Speaker 1: big blind folds and I have a six of spades,

645
00:35:18,244 --> 00:35:20,124
Speaker 1: which is a good hand, but not a great hand.

646
00:35:20,164 --> 00:35:22,724
Speaker 1: But given what just happened, I was like, I'm gonna call,

647
00:35:22,964 --> 00:35:25,804
Speaker 1: so I did. He had Queen five offsuit. Luckily he

648
00:35:25,844 --> 00:35:29,724
Speaker 1: didn't hit and I knocked him out. Don't be that guy.

649
00:35:30,164 --> 00:35:32,604
Speaker 1: It does not matter if you just made a bad decision.

650
00:35:32,924 --> 00:35:35,804
Speaker 1: Do not make another bad decision because of that. If

651
00:35:35,844 --> 00:35:38,244
Speaker 1: someone calls the clock on you. You know I didn't

652
00:35:38,244 --> 00:35:40,804
Speaker 1: even call the clock on him, right, Like, just do

653
00:35:41,004 --> 00:35:44,964
Speaker 1: not be that guy. Make rational decisions. Do not punt

654
00:35:45,004 --> 00:35:47,764
Speaker 1: with queen five offsuit, even though you still have a

655
00:35:47,804 --> 00:35:51,044
Speaker 1: ton of chips, just because you're pissed off and you

656
00:35:51,084 --> 00:35:52,964
Speaker 1: think that you know that someone's picking on you.

657
00:35:53,844 --> 00:35:55,804
Speaker 2: I think the guy thing like not to be too

658
00:35:56,004 --> 00:35:59,364
Speaker 2: like woke here or anything. The guy thing is important though,

659
00:35:59,404 --> 00:36:04,524
Speaker 2: because like men with other men don't want to lose face,

660
00:36:04,644 --> 00:36:07,204
Speaker 2: and that can like manifest itself in different ways. But like,

661
00:36:07,604 --> 00:36:11,724
Speaker 2: I haven't been quite in that spot as often as

662
00:36:11,964 --> 00:36:14,644
Speaker 2: people seem to react to you that way, even though

663
00:36:14,644 --> 00:36:16,484
Speaker 2: I would have been probably more aggressive about just calling

664
00:36:16,524 --> 00:36:18,564
Speaker 2: the clock and not giving him like a warning. I

665
00:36:18,564 --> 00:36:21,324
Speaker 2: do think that, like, you know, men who feel like

666
00:36:21,364 --> 00:36:24,324
Speaker 2: they're embarrassed by women. I mean, this is not like

667
00:36:24,964 --> 00:36:28,844
Speaker 2: some deep breakthrough here, right, but like you know, men

668
00:36:28,884 --> 00:36:30,924
Speaker 2: who feel like they're embarrassed by women can kind of

669
00:36:30,964 --> 00:36:33,404
Speaker 2: go on tilts in different ways, and they might if

670
00:36:33,404 --> 00:36:35,204
Speaker 2: they're embarrassed by another guy.

671
00:36:35,764 --> 00:36:37,884
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I think that's very true. And I actually

672
00:36:38,124 --> 00:36:41,084
Speaker 1: wrote an entire piece about sexism and poker on my

673
00:36:41,124 --> 00:36:44,924
Speaker 1: substack this week, and some a guy also going on

674
00:36:44,964 --> 00:36:48,444
Speaker 1: tilt to a female gave me a ten ten thousand

675
00:36:48,484 --> 00:36:50,764
Speaker 1: dollars main events seat, so I'm very grateful for that.

676
00:36:51,364 --> 00:36:54,324
Speaker 1: So everyone, do not make this mistake unless you're a

677
00:36:54,324 --> 00:36:57,204
Speaker 1: bounty with ten thousand dollars on your head, in which case,

678
00:36:57,244 --> 00:36:59,684
Speaker 1: you know, please do emotionally tilt and give me your chips.

679
00:37:00,404 --> 00:37:03,564
Speaker 1: But Nate, I think that that is a you know,

680
00:37:03,724 --> 00:37:06,764
Speaker 1: great place to wrap it up, and to say again,

681
00:37:07,644 --> 00:37:10,044
Speaker 1: I trust that you will not make any of these

682
00:37:10,084 --> 00:37:13,804
Speaker 1: mistakes today. I hope you play well and may the

683
00:37:14,004 --> 00:37:16,204
Speaker 1: may the cards be with you, because that's you know,

684
00:37:16,244 --> 00:37:31,764
Speaker 1: that's the one thing that you can't control. So Nay

685
00:37:31,884 --> 00:37:34,764
Speaker 1: Risky business is still a young show. You know, we're

686
00:37:34,804 --> 00:37:38,564
Speaker 1: we're a month old, and I have already learned more

687
00:37:38,884 --> 00:37:42,524
Speaker 1: about basketball than I have learned during my entire life,

688
00:37:43,044 --> 00:37:47,004
Speaker 1: and here we are doing yet another basketball segment. Last week,

689
00:37:47,164 --> 00:37:48,964
Speaker 1: I when I told you that I was ready to

690
00:37:49,004 --> 00:37:51,324
Speaker 1: go to a next game, you informed me that unfortunately

691
00:37:51,364 --> 00:37:54,124
Speaker 1: they were already out, so you know, so that that

692
00:37:54,244 --> 00:37:56,404
Speaker 1: wasn't that wasn't great timing, So we'll have to go

693
00:37:56,524 --> 00:38:00,764
Speaker 1: next season. But you've also informed me, and I didn't

694
00:38:00,804 --> 00:38:05,044
Speaker 1: know that we're now starting the NBA Finals, which sounds really,

695
00:38:05,084 --> 00:38:07,804
Speaker 1: really exciting, and I'm gonna I'm gonna get some real

696
00:38:07,844 --> 00:38:10,404
Speaker 1: excitement going once I finally go to an NBA game.

697
00:38:10,604 --> 00:38:12,444
Speaker 1: I'm sure you will teach me to love it. But

698
00:38:12,524 --> 00:38:16,124
Speaker 1: for now, let me ask you who's playing in the

699
00:38:16,164 --> 00:38:17,724
Speaker 1: finals and why do we care?

700
00:38:17,964 --> 00:38:20,924
Speaker 2: Mario? Are you? Are you anti sports and you want

701
00:38:20,924 --> 00:38:22,884
Speaker 2: to read The New Yorker? Are you one of those

702
00:38:23,204 --> 00:38:25,444
Speaker 2: call us at sports ball and things like that. I'm,

703
00:38:26,044 --> 00:38:30,244
Speaker 2: by the way, your hometown team, the Boston Celtics, is

704
00:38:30,324 --> 00:38:32,804
Speaker 2: one of the two teams involved in the NBA.

705
00:38:34,964 --> 00:38:35,684
Speaker 1: That's exciting.

706
00:38:36,524 --> 00:38:41,004
Speaker 2: I did. The other team is a Dallas Mavericks. Who

707
00:38:41,044 --> 00:38:43,044
Speaker 2: are I guess I was gonna say younger. They're not

708
00:38:43,164 --> 00:38:47,164
Speaker 2: that young, but they kind of overachieved expectations this year.

709
00:38:47,444 --> 00:38:50,444
Speaker 2: You know, I did a kind of preseason preview for

710
00:38:50,524 --> 00:38:53,684
Speaker 2: my newsletter subscribers at Silver Bulletin. Talked about every team.

711
00:38:53,764 --> 00:38:57,204
Speaker 2: Although I was very bullish in the Celtics. I was

712
00:38:57,284 --> 00:39:00,164
Speaker 2: kept on the Dallas Mavericks would even make the playoffs,

713
00:39:00,804 --> 00:39:03,644
Speaker 2: and here they are in the NBA finals. So what

714
00:39:03,684 --> 00:39:04,884
Speaker 2: the fuck do I know?

715
00:39:05,044 --> 00:39:08,404
Speaker 1: I suppose so I didn't know who'd be in the finals,

716
00:39:08,444 --> 00:39:10,444
Speaker 1: and Nate, you don't know who would be in the

717
00:39:10,444 --> 00:39:11,764
Speaker 1: finals for either for.

718
00:39:11,964 --> 00:39:14,484
Speaker 2: Different reasons, I would say, But at the point is

719
00:39:14,564 --> 00:39:15,524
Speaker 2: the point is well taken?

720
00:39:16,684 --> 00:39:18,724
Speaker 1: No, for the record, let the record show I am

721
00:39:18,764 --> 00:39:23,164
Speaker 1: not anti sport, and I'm very excited about getting excited

722
00:39:23,284 --> 00:39:25,284
Speaker 1: about sports once i know more about them.

723
00:39:26,004 --> 00:39:30,004
Speaker 2: Anti sport are you British? They call it like sport

724
00:39:30,364 --> 00:39:31,324
Speaker 2: singular instead of.

725
00:39:31,324 --> 00:39:37,324
Speaker 1: Playing anti sports sport. I just all right, fine, fine,

726
00:39:37,404 --> 00:39:41,324
Speaker 1: my fake English accent friend, I am not anti athletics

727
00:39:41,844 --> 00:39:42,684
Speaker 1: sports teams.

728
00:39:42,804 --> 00:39:45,284
Speaker 2: Okay, after you're not. You're not helping yourself here, I

729
00:39:45,324 --> 00:39:48,884
Speaker 2: don't think. Here's what I want to discuss though, and

730
00:39:48,924 --> 00:39:52,484
Speaker 2: we'll be short with this segment. There is a gap

731
00:39:52,524 --> 00:39:55,324
Speaker 2: here between kind of what the stats would say and

732
00:39:56,524 --> 00:39:59,204
Speaker 2: what the betting markets say. So, the Celtics in the

733
00:39:59,244 --> 00:40:04,404
Speaker 2: regular season went sixty four and eighteen, winning sixty four

734
00:40:04,444 --> 00:40:07,724
Speaker 2: games is a very very very good record. Dallas, by contrast,

735
00:40:07,764 --> 00:40:12,244
Speaker 2: went fifty five, zero and thirty two. They were a

736
00:40:12,324 --> 00:40:14,764
Speaker 2: number five seed. The Celtics were a number one seed.

737
00:40:15,204 --> 00:40:19,524
Speaker 2: The Celtics are twelve and two so far in the playoffs.

738
00:40:19,564 --> 00:40:23,684
Speaker 2: They have virtually swept every series. The Celtics have an

739
00:40:23,724 --> 00:40:28,524
Speaker 2: average victory margin of more than ten point eight points

740
00:40:28,564 --> 00:40:30,364
Speaker 2: per game or more than ten points per game, which

741
00:40:30,364 --> 00:40:33,204
Speaker 2: is one of the best in NBA history this year.

742
00:40:34,564 --> 00:40:36,484
Speaker 2: So if you look at this system like, I'm gonna

743
00:40:36,484 --> 00:40:40,644
Speaker 2: promote a system called EPM, which is by at the

744
00:40:40,684 --> 00:40:44,444
Speaker 2: site Dunks and Threes. It's a good, very good basketball

745
00:40:44,484 --> 00:40:47,404
Speaker 2: analysis site that rates individual players and has team projections.

746
00:40:48,164 --> 00:40:51,084
Speaker 2: Their projections have the Celtics with an eighty six percent chance.

747
00:40:51,164 --> 00:40:53,724
Speaker 2: Eighty six percent of the Celtics, who, by the way,

748
00:40:53,764 --> 00:40:56,364
Speaker 2: are have a home court in Boston's a good home

749
00:40:56,404 --> 00:41:00,524
Speaker 2: court advantage an eighty six percent chance of winning the finals.

750
00:41:00,764 --> 00:41:02,924
Speaker 1: Now, if I go down there, pretty high chance.

751
00:41:04,364 --> 00:41:06,684
Speaker 2: It's a pretty high chance. But the NBA is a

752
00:41:06,724 --> 00:41:12,164
Speaker 2: game where a game of dominant compare, for example, a

753
00:41:12,204 --> 00:41:16,204
Speaker 2: basketball game to a football game. In the NBA, each

754
00:41:16,244 --> 00:41:18,604
Speaker 2: team has over one hundred posessions, maybe even one hundred

755
00:41:18,644 --> 00:41:21,924
Speaker 2: and ten or one hundred and twenty, given how fast

756
00:41:22,084 --> 00:41:25,724
Speaker 2: paced the game is nowadays. Right in the NFL, a

757
00:41:25,804 --> 00:41:29,084
Speaker 2: team might have what is it like, you know, twelve

758
00:41:29,124 --> 00:41:33,404
Speaker 2: or thirteen possessions in a game, so roughly one tenth

759
00:41:33,484 --> 00:41:37,244
Speaker 2: as much. If you roll a dice one hundred and

760
00:41:37,284 --> 00:41:41,044
Speaker 2: ten times versus twelve times, then you match the kind

761
00:41:41,044 --> 00:41:44,484
Speaker 2: of long run statistical distribution much more closely with a

762
00:41:44,524 --> 00:41:49,604
Speaker 2: larger sample size. So in the NBA, small edges shooting

763
00:41:49,724 --> 00:41:52,844
Speaker 2: thirty nine percent from three point range instead of thirty

764
00:41:52,844 --> 00:41:56,204
Speaker 2: six percent. That plays out when you're taking all these

765
00:41:56,204 --> 00:41:59,604
Speaker 2: shots per game, so that the better team usually wins

766
00:41:59,644 --> 00:42:02,404
Speaker 2: in the NBA, like almost no other sport, right Michael

767
00:42:02,484 --> 00:42:05,724
Speaker 2: Jordan's Bulls when he was on the team won six championships.

768
00:42:06,724 --> 00:42:09,404
Speaker 2: The Warriors won whatever it was three and four years.

769
00:42:09,844 --> 00:42:14,364
Speaker 2: So again, my favorite basketball stat site, dunksan threes dot

770
00:42:14,364 --> 00:42:17,804
Speaker 2: com gives Boston an eighty six point four percent chance

771
00:42:17,844 --> 00:42:20,844
Speaker 2: of winning. If I believe that number, I can go

772
00:42:20,924 --> 00:42:23,124
Speaker 2: down to the sportsbook here I'm staying at the Cosmo,

773
00:42:23,204 --> 00:42:26,164
Speaker 2: I guess, or anywhere in Vegas and make what, in

774
00:42:26,244 --> 00:42:29,164
Speaker 2: theory is a very very profitable bet. That bet implies

775
00:42:29,244 --> 00:42:31,924
Speaker 2: they only have to win seventy percent of the time.

776
00:42:32,004 --> 00:42:35,844
Speaker 2: Seven zero eighty six is a lot higher than seventy

777
00:42:35,444 --> 00:42:39,284
Speaker 2: to a gambler or a poker player. And yet, Maria,

778
00:42:39,364 --> 00:42:41,724
Speaker 2: I have not I have not made that bet yet,

779
00:42:41,804 --> 00:42:44,004
Speaker 2: despite having been in Vegas all week?

780
00:42:44,724 --> 00:42:46,204
Speaker 1: Why haven't you made that bet? Nate?

781
00:42:48,684 --> 00:42:52,164
Speaker 2: Partly because I should say, full disclosure, I probably will

782
00:42:52,764 --> 00:42:54,884
Speaker 2: by the time you listen to this. Have made some

783
00:42:55,044 --> 00:42:59,724
Speaker 2: amount of bets somewhere on the Celtics. But like, look,

784
00:43:01,924 --> 00:43:04,044
Speaker 2: one reason, a couple reasons why. Number one is that

785
00:43:04,124 --> 00:43:09,964
Speaker 2: I have repeatedly been low on the Mavericks throughout the season, right,

786
00:43:10,364 --> 00:43:12,044
Speaker 2: which may mean that there is just something that I

787
00:43:12,084 --> 00:43:15,164
Speaker 2: don't understand and I have to, like concede that the

788
00:43:15,204 --> 00:43:17,924
Speaker 2: public betting public, which is very sharp and the aggregate

789
00:43:18,604 --> 00:43:20,604
Speaker 2: knows something or not noticing that that I don't, but

790
00:43:20,764 --> 00:43:25,804
Speaker 2: like has a better read on the situation. Now, look,

791
00:43:26,884 --> 00:43:29,644
Speaker 2: the NBA Finals is such a big public event that

792
00:43:29,724 --> 00:43:32,924
Speaker 2: you have a lot of how should we say, a

793
00:43:32,924 --> 00:43:37,644
Speaker 2: lot of dumb money on the series. Sometimes one belief

794
00:43:37,644 --> 00:43:39,324
Speaker 2: of that I think maybe is not dumb is that

795
00:43:39,804 --> 00:43:42,484
Speaker 2: Luka Doncic is a Dallas Maverick superstar. I don't what

796
00:43:42,564 --> 00:43:44,404
Speaker 2: you want to call him. He's kind of like plays

797
00:43:44,444 --> 00:43:47,124
Speaker 2: point bar guard, but kind of like a small forward

798
00:43:47,164 --> 00:43:51,644
Speaker 2: slash unicorn bowling ball in his own way. He is

799
00:43:51,684 --> 00:43:54,404
Speaker 2: pretty clearly the best player in the series. I think

800
00:43:54,404 --> 00:43:56,404
Speaker 2: people are now calling him maybe the best player, at

801
00:43:56,444 --> 00:43:59,284
Speaker 2: least the best offensive player in the NBA, probably not

802
00:43:59,324 --> 00:44:00,244
Speaker 2: the best all around self.

803
00:44:00,404 --> 00:44:02,844
Speaker 1: So what you're saying is he's the Caitlyn Clark of

804
00:44:02,924 --> 00:44:04,044
Speaker 1: the team.

805
00:44:04,764 --> 00:44:06,804
Speaker 2: Caitlyn Clark is off to a little bit of a

806
00:44:06,884 --> 00:44:11,524
Speaker 2: rocky start here, actually, Maria, Yeah, no, yeah, I don't

807
00:44:11,564 --> 00:44:14,364
Speaker 2: think he would be flattered by the Caitlin Clark comparison.

808
00:44:14,604 --> 00:44:17,724
Speaker 2: No he is. I'm not sure how you what's the

809
00:44:17,844 --> 00:44:21,004
Speaker 2: right compare. I mean, he's not super athletic, So I'm

810
00:44:21,044 --> 00:44:23,284
Speaker 2: not like, oh, he's the Michael Jordan or Lebron James,

811
00:44:23,324 --> 00:44:26,084
Speaker 2: because those guys are like much better athletes. We get

812
00:44:26,084 --> 00:44:30,084
Speaker 2: into like a little bit of like racial profiling. I mean,

813
00:44:30,244 --> 00:44:34,964
Speaker 2: Larry Bird is not the worst comparable for Luca necessarily

814
00:44:35,044 --> 00:44:38,604
Speaker 2: where he shoots, he rebounds. Larryberd was a better defensive

815
00:44:38,604 --> 00:44:42,404
Speaker 2: player than Luca most likely, but Luca's more dominant. He

816
00:44:42,444 --> 00:44:44,764
Speaker 2: can take over a game. We're talking about dominance here

817
00:44:44,764 --> 00:44:48,244
Speaker 2: and in general, when you have the best player in

818
00:44:48,364 --> 00:44:51,444
Speaker 2: the in the game, then your team wins, especially in

819
00:44:51,484 --> 00:44:56,764
Speaker 2: the finals where everyone's playing maximum minutes, maximum effort, so

820
00:44:56,804 --> 00:45:01,284
Speaker 2: it's a best player versus best team thing. I think

821
00:45:01,324 --> 00:45:03,764
Speaker 2: the kind of public believes heavily in the best player.

822
00:45:04,324 --> 00:45:06,644
Speaker 2: They kind of also think the Celtics are chokers. They've

823
00:45:06,644 --> 00:45:09,244
Speaker 2: been in the finals before, they've made deep playoff runs

824
00:45:09,564 --> 00:45:12,964
Speaker 2: ended badly. That's probably just like it's look, I think

825
00:45:13,004 --> 00:45:16,604
Speaker 2: you're bad. Is probably halfway between the stats and the public,

826
00:45:16,604 --> 00:45:19,324
Speaker 2: which means I should go and make some type of

827
00:45:19,364 --> 00:45:24,404
Speaker 2: bet on Boston. Maybe emotional because Boston has burned them before,

828
00:45:24,644 --> 00:45:28,484
Speaker 2: but you know, by the numbers they are a fantastic

829
00:45:29,044 --> 00:45:33,084
Speaker 2: basketball team, they're at home. They're very deep. They do

830
00:45:33,124 --> 00:45:35,204
Speaker 2: have very good players. I mean, Jason Tatum might be

831
00:45:35,244 --> 00:45:39,084
Speaker 2: the sixth best player in the league, Jalen Brown might

832
00:45:39,124 --> 00:45:42,404
Speaker 2: be the you know, thirtieth best player, Derek White might

833
00:45:42,404 --> 00:45:44,324
Speaker 2: be the twenty eighth best player or something. Right, they're

834
00:45:44,404 --> 00:45:47,884
Speaker 2: very deep, and I think you know, you hear people

835
00:45:47,884 --> 00:45:49,444
Speaker 2: at the poker tables being like, well, well, I don't know,

836
00:45:49,484 --> 00:45:51,844
Speaker 2: the Celtic are jokers, Like it's actually a reason to

837
00:45:51,924 --> 00:45:56,004
Speaker 2: bet on the Celtics when like generic poker players are like,

838
00:45:56,204 --> 00:45:57,764
Speaker 2: who don't know that much about basketball?

839
00:45:58,124 --> 00:45:58,284
Speaker 1: Are?

840
00:45:58,964 --> 00:46:00,764
Speaker 2: That's you know, they're the ones who are like helping

841
00:46:00,764 --> 00:46:03,244
Speaker 2: to set the market line. I think their rationales are

842
00:46:03,284 --> 00:46:06,884
Speaker 2: not that compelling. But at the same time, I'm not

843
00:46:06,884 --> 00:46:08,804
Speaker 2: sure I want to bet that much against against Luca.

844
00:46:09,204 --> 00:46:11,884
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think that that's a really that's a

845
00:46:11,924 --> 00:46:15,364
Speaker 1: really great point about how betting works in general. Right,

846
00:46:15,764 --> 00:46:21,764
Speaker 1: you do need to have some sort of idea about

847
00:46:22,124 --> 00:46:24,604
Speaker 1: where you are relative to the public, but also how

848
00:46:24,644 --> 00:46:28,764
Speaker 1: much you personally are willing to risk, right, Like, can

849
00:46:28,804 --> 00:46:32,804
Speaker 1: you risk ruin with with these odds or not? And

850
00:46:32,844 --> 00:46:36,324
Speaker 1: I think usually, especially from what I understand of sports betting,

851
00:46:37,204 --> 00:46:41,404
Speaker 1: the answer usually is no, Please don't right that there

852
00:46:41,524 --> 00:46:45,684
Speaker 1: is uncertainty and emotions do get into it on every

853
00:46:45,724 --> 00:46:49,044
Speaker 1: single line, and as accurate as a market might be,

854
00:46:49,084 --> 00:46:51,284
Speaker 1: as accurate as a line might be, there will be

855
00:46:51,364 --> 00:46:54,844
Speaker 1: kind of emotional betting and shit happens, right Like, this

856
00:46:54,884 --> 00:46:56,924
Speaker 1: is a game of individuals, And I think that that's

857
00:46:57,004 --> 00:46:59,244
Speaker 1: kind of the other point you're making. Someone might be

858
00:46:59,244 --> 00:47:01,564
Speaker 1: having a great day, somebody might be having an off day,

859
00:47:01,604 --> 00:47:04,684
Speaker 1: somebody might be a superstar, someone might choke you. Just

860
00:47:05,124 --> 00:47:07,604
Speaker 1: you can't account for all of those variables, and I

861
00:47:07,644 --> 00:47:09,804
Speaker 1: think that that's important in a game like that basketball.

862
00:47:14,724 --> 00:47:18,564
Speaker 2: So I'm going back to the beautiful Paris Horseshow Casino

863
00:47:18,844 --> 00:47:21,724
Speaker 2: in just about two and a half hours. Maria, When

864
00:47:21,724 --> 00:47:22,524
Speaker 2: are you back in town?

865
00:47:23,084 --> 00:47:27,724
Speaker 1: So it is now Tuesday. I will be doing a

866
00:47:27,844 --> 00:47:31,964
Speaker 1: multi country tour between now and then. So from New Haven,

867
00:47:32,004 --> 00:47:34,364
Speaker 1: I'm going back to New York and from there I

868
00:47:34,404 --> 00:47:39,124
Speaker 1: am going to Ireland and then on Saturday evening, so

869
00:47:39,604 --> 00:47:42,044
Speaker 1: late on Saturday, I will be back in Las Vegas

870
00:47:42,204 --> 00:47:45,884
Speaker 1: ready to play on Sunday. Now, this depends on how

871
00:47:45,924 --> 00:47:49,964
Speaker 1: well I've slept, how rested I am. But assuming everything

872
00:47:50,004 --> 00:47:52,964
Speaker 1: goes smoothly and I'm well rested. I'm actually going to

873
00:47:53,004 --> 00:47:55,164
Speaker 1: be playing my biggest buying event of the summer, the

874
00:47:55,284 --> 00:48:00,884
Speaker 1: twenty five thousand dollars eight handed event on Sunday, and.

875
00:48:00,924 --> 00:48:03,964
Speaker 2: Well I will be away. I'll be in California briefly

876
00:48:04,004 --> 00:48:05,804
Speaker 2: on Sunday and then back in New York. So we're

877
00:48:05,804 --> 00:48:08,724
Speaker 2: not doing a very good job of coordinating our schedules.

878
00:48:08,724 --> 00:48:11,284
Speaker 1: Maria, you know we're not. But this just means that

879
00:48:11,364 --> 00:48:13,524
Speaker 1: you and I don't have to compete for bracelets. We

880
00:48:13,564 --> 00:48:21,124
Speaker 1: can both win bracelets in separate events. Perfect Risky Business

881
00:48:21,204 --> 00:48:23,604
Speaker 1: is hosted by me Maria Kanikova.

882
00:48:23,364 --> 00:48:24,564
Speaker 2: And me Nate Silver.

883
00:48:25,044 --> 00:48:28,444
Speaker 1: The show is a co production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia.

884
00:48:28,884 --> 00:48:32,924
Speaker 1: This episode was produced by Isabelle Carter. Our associate producer

885
00:48:33,004 --> 00:48:36,684
Speaker 1: is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein.

886
00:48:36,724 --> 00:48:38,764
Speaker 2: If you like the show, please rate and review us

887
00:48:38,764 --> 00:48:40,964
Speaker 2: so other people can find us more easily. And if

888
00:48:40,964 --> 00:48:43,284
Speaker 2: you want to listen to an AD free version, sener

889
00:48:43,364 --> 00:48:45,284
Speaker 2: for Pushkin Plus. For six D nine a month you

890
00:48:45,284 --> 00:48:47,924
Speaker 2: get access to ad free listening. Thanks for tuning in.