1
00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:05,560
Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of is information age

2
00:00:06,920 --> 00:00:07,920
Speaker 1: five five dollars.

3
00:00:07,960 --> 00:00:08,920
Speaker 2: This is a regular level.

4
00:00:10,360 --> 00:00:10,600
Speaker 3: They t.

5
00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:18,480
Speaker 2: You're saying that humans need fantasy to make life bearable.

6
00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:20,600
Speaker 2: Humans need census.

7
00:00:20,640 --> 00:00:21,720
Speaker 1: Here to be.

8
00:00:24,079 --> 00:00:31,400
Speaker 2: My goodness, mispe best, relentless, refusing to give up.

9
00:00:31,880 --> 00:00:33,360
Speaker 4: All right, hit that horn, very bless.

10
00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:35,919
Speaker 2: Welcome everybody.

11
00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:38,720
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Fantasy Flex podcast and the Actually Network

12
00:00:38,800 --> 00:00:41,360
Speaker 1: and Fantasy Labs. I am your host, Chris Raybund. It's

13
00:00:41,440 --> 00:00:45,839
Speaker 1: NFL wild Card Weekend momentarily. I'll be joined by one

14
00:00:45,840 --> 00:00:48,680
Speaker 1: of the most accurate rankers in the game, the adds maker,

15
00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:51,239
Speaker 1: Sean Kerner. We're gonna get into our player projections for

16
00:00:51,360 --> 00:00:55,200
Speaker 1: wild Card weekend. Quick reminder, all of our fantasy football

17
00:00:55,240 --> 00:00:59,240
Speaker 1: content is available right now over on Fantasy labs dot com. Plus,

18
00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:01,840
Speaker 1: Fantasy Lab has a new feature, pick Labs.

19
00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:02,880
Speaker 2: It is live.

20
00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:06,160
Speaker 1: Pick Labs lets you scan the best player prop and

21
00:01:06,200 --> 00:01:09,399
Speaker 1: pick a bets in seconds. Everything is broken down for you,

22
00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:13,039
Speaker 1: from edges and win rates to value. It's a clean

23
00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:17,280
Speaker 1: board showing which plays actually stand doubt across sports books

24
00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:20,800
Speaker 1: and sites like Underdog and Prize Picks. And when you

25
00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:23,560
Speaker 1: see something you like, Picklabs builds the bet slip and

26
00:01:23,600 --> 00:01:26,480
Speaker 1: sends it straight to the book of your choice. For

27
00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:29,640
Speaker 1: a limited time, you could get free access by signing

28
00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:34,280
Speaker 1: up for a Fantasy Labs DFS subscription. Just visit fantasy

29
00:01:34,319 --> 00:01:38,000
Speaker 1: labs dot com slash pricing and use code flex twenty

30
00:01:38,080 --> 00:01:40,959
Speaker 1: to get twenty dollars off your first payment. That's code

31
00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:43,880
Speaker 1: flex twenty fl he has to zero for twenty dollars

32
00:01:43,880 --> 00:01:50,160
Speaker 1: off at fantasy labs dot com slash pricing. All right, kurrent,

33
00:01:50,240 --> 00:01:52,840
Speaker 1: we're gonna get into you know, a normal top five

34
00:01:52,880 --> 00:01:56,080
Speaker 1: of each position. Hot guys were hiring long one, give

35
00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:58,840
Speaker 1: out some props, but first still got a crown.

36
00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:00,400
Speaker 2: He's cardio kings.

37
00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:02,680
Speaker 4: Kids were just running around. This is way too much.

38
00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:06,240
Speaker 2: And the base run and run and run and running.

39
00:02:05,880 --> 00:02:10,320
Speaker 4: And run and running, run and running and run and run.

40
00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:16,280
Speaker 2: You all crown me. You'll king him in the docks.

41
00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:19,240
Speaker 2: So I assume somebody that was really invisible.

42
00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:23,119
Speaker 4: It's interesting you have to do this on the fly.

43
00:02:23,720 --> 00:02:25,840
Speaker 1: Uh and and just so the people out there will

44
00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:29,639
Speaker 1: just explain why you looked that up. It's the it's

45
00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:33,920
Speaker 1: the players who ran the most routes without a target,

46
00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:36,120
Speaker 1: and we always like to know that it's just kind

47
00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:40,160
Speaker 1: of funny. But also, you know, certain teams are more

48
00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:42,440
Speaker 1: kind of uh, you know, they go to their first

49
00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:45,360
Speaker 1: read more and you kind of like guys who don't

50
00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:48,120
Speaker 1: get targeted at a reliable rate and do it a lot.

51
00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:50,960
Speaker 1: Trying to think of a like Isaiah Hodgens on the

52
00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:54,160
Speaker 1: Giants is one that kind of concentrated around.

53
00:02:54,760 --> 00:02:59,079
Speaker 3: Got a target target, I mean to Robinson to the

54
00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:02,600
Speaker 3: uh place on the ir along with THEO Johnson get there,

55
00:03:02,639 --> 00:03:06,919
Speaker 3: but finally drew a target.

56
00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:07,680
Speaker 4: Damn.

57
00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:12,880
Speaker 3: Everybody who ran at least twenty routes saw a target,

58
00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:23,560
Speaker 3: So all right, tight end your guy Shane Zilkstra got

59
00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:28,840
Speaker 3: it for tight Ends with seventeen routes and no targets.

60
00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:37,120
Speaker 3: That's that's kind of interesting. But that game, yeah yeah,

61
00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:46,000
Speaker 3: And Isaac Tislaw right right, like this is incredible. I

62
00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:49,880
Speaker 3: don't think I've seen this. Everybody who had at least

63
00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:51,880
Speaker 3: ten routes saw a target.

64
00:03:53,240 --> 00:03:56,040
Speaker 2: Really, that can't that doesn't that.

65
00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:58,080
Speaker 3: Can't make sense. I have to be doing this wrong.

66
00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:02,600
Speaker 3: Kyle Williams with notes was the cardio king.

67
00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:05,200
Speaker 1: I mean, it doesn't sound wrong, but let me check,

68
00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:07,200
Speaker 1: let me double check, because that is that would be

69
00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:07,600
Speaker 1: a first.

70
00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:12,200
Speaker 3: I think that has to be. Yeah, it's see. I

71
00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:14,760
Speaker 3: mean it is week eighteen. You know, you have weird

72
00:04:14,800 --> 00:04:17,920
Speaker 3: things going on where a lot of guys like Britain

73
00:04:18,960 --> 00:04:20,919
Speaker 3: Kobe ran a ton of routes, so he was going

74
00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:21,640
Speaker 3: to see a target.

75
00:04:21,720 --> 00:04:23,159
Speaker 4: What did you see somebody I missed?

76
00:04:23,279 --> 00:04:28,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yep, I did. Poo Xavier Weaver.

77
00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:30,760
Speaker 4: Oh I got it.

78
00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:33,719
Speaker 1: God, I got him with thirty three routes last week

79
00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:37,440
Speaker 1: for the Cards, no targets. Yeah, and then Canada Mumpfield

80
00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:40,480
Speaker 1: was in second way down at twenty one, so.

81
00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:42,000
Speaker 4: I just saw that. Yeah.

82
00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:44,120
Speaker 3: I think there was a dispute over like one of

83
00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:46,080
Speaker 3: the passes. If there was a target, it was like

84
00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:48,680
Speaker 3: intended for him, but not even close. I think that's

85
00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:52,680
Speaker 3: why certain sources have that kind of mixed up. But yeah,

86
00:04:52,760 --> 00:04:56,160
Speaker 3: Xavier Weaver had to be the clear favorite, right, he

87
00:04:56,279 --> 00:04:57,479
Speaker 3: was probably like five to one.

88
00:04:58,600 --> 00:04:59,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, especially with the.

89
00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:04,840
Speaker 1: With the because he was like the starting like I

90
00:05:04,839 --> 00:05:08,640
Speaker 1: guess that's the Z receiver for the for the cars. Yeah,

91
00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:12,120
Speaker 1: so definitely because you got McBride and you got Wilson

92
00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:15,279
Speaker 1: in that X role with Harrison out, so yeah, and

93
00:05:15,320 --> 00:05:18,480
Speaker 1: then I mean it's I think Montfield is more interesting

94
00:05:18,960 --> 00:05:21,880
Speaker 1: just looking forward into the into this week, just because

95
00:05:22,279 --> 00:05:24,760
Speaker 1: you're probably gonna get Devonte Adams back too. But Mountfield

96
00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:28,120
Speaker 1: still plays a lot, especially those single receiver sets, so

97
00:05:28,120 --> 00:05:30,520
Speaker 1: that just kind of allows them to target the tight ends.

98
00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:30,680
Speaker 4: Moore.

99
00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:33,320
Speaker 2: Uh So that's that's pretty interesting.

100
00:05:33,760 --> 00:05:38,080
Speaker 1: All right, Enough of that, Let's get into our top

101
00:05:38,160 --> 00:05:41,560
Speaker 1: five at Quarterback Week nineteen Wildcard weekend.

102
00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:42,480
Speaker 2: Colonel we got.

103
00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:47,000
Speaker 3: I got Josh Allen Drake, May, Jalen Hurts, Trevor Lawrence,

104
00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:48,280
Speaker 3: and Matthew Stafford.

105
00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:53,880
Speaker 1: I got, Yeah, I got h Yeah, Allen Hurts, May, Lawrence, Stafford,

106
00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:57,800
Speaker 1: same exact top five Herbert. If he wasn't, if his

107
00:05:57,920 --> 00:06:02,000
Speaker 1: offensive line wasn't so I wasn't in shambles, he would

108
00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:05,560
Speaker 1: be pushing Stafford right there. But he's He's in QB,

109
00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:09,560
Speaker 1: just in QB six behind Stafford for me as well,

110
00:06:11,080 --> 00:06:12,120
Speaker 1: who are you high on?

111
00:06:13,080 --> 00:06:13,240
Speaker 2: Yeah?

112
00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:16,599
Speaker 3: I'm high on Jordan Love. You know, I haven't ranked

113
00:06:16,600 --> 00:06:19,279
Speaker 3: ten out of twelve quarterbacks this week, but you know,

114
00:06:19,320 --> 00:06:22,160
Speaker 3: no one's playing fantasy anymore, but I could see him

115
00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:26,719
Speaker 3: being sneaky in like DFS maybe player props. Although the

116
00:06:26,760 --> 00:06:29,840
Speaker 3: Packers are a luckreaking play this week, so maybe they

117
00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:33,080
Speaker 3: they do end up the games are on to pick them,

118
00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:35,520
Speaker 3: but maybe they do have a lead for most of

119
00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:38,320
Speaker 3: the game, which lowers is passing volume. But he's just

120
00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:41,920
Speaker 3: always been super efficient against the Bears. And this is

121
00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:44,719
Speaker 3: actually because he missed the last two games due to

122
00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:47,800
Speaker 3: concussion and rest. This is actually the third time he's

123
00:06:47,839 --> 00:06:49,839
Speaker 3: going to face the Bears in his last four games,

124
00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:54,239
Speaker 3: which is actually insane. But he typically does well against

125
00:06:54,240 --> 00:06:57,400
Speaker 3: the Bears. Like I mentioned, he had averaged ten yards

126
00:06:57,400 --> 00:07:00,360
Speaker 3: per temp against them in five games in a career,

127
00:07:00,360 --> 00:07:04,240
Speaker 3: which is the fifth highest for any quarterback the last

128
00:07:05,080 --> 00:07:08,039
Speaker 3: forty seasons. And part of that is just due to

129
00:07:08,680 --> 00:07:12,840
Speaker 3: them just struggling to get pressure on anybody but especially him,

130
00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:15,840
Speaker 3: and he tends to have really big splits when it

131
00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:20,280
Speaker 3: comes to facing pressure versus having a clean pocket. That's

132
00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:22,520
Speaker 3: been sort of the story throughout his career. So he's

133
00:07:22,560 --> 00:07:27,160
Speaker 3: averaging right around four more yards per attempt from a

134
00:07:27,200 --> 00:07:29,800
Speaker 3: clean pocket. So I'm expecting him to have, you know,

135
00:07:29,840 --> 00:07:32,880
Speaker 3: a fairly clean pocket here. I think Zach Tom's supposed

136
00:07:32,880 --> 00:07:35,840
Speaker 3: to return, so that that should help. But you know,

137
00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:38,560
Speaker 3: tends to thrive against the Bears. They are you know,

138
00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:41,760
Speaker 3: they are expected to trail at around a twenty percent

139
00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:45,600
Speaker 3: higher rate despite this being a pick em. So I

140
00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:48,120
Speaker 3: could see, you know, stacking him with someone like Christian

141
00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:51,320
Speaker 3: Watson and GPPs for this weekend makes a ton of sense.

142
00:07:51,360 --> 00:07:54,960
Speaker 3: But I think Jordan Love's probably the quarterback I think

143
00:07:55,040 --> 00:07:56,720
Speaker 3: is going to be the most underrated this weekend.

144
00:07:56,920 --> 00:07:58,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can definitely see that. I mean, and the

145
00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:02,800
Speaker 1: defense isn't as good. You got your receivers, you gotta

146
00:08:02,840 --> 00:08:06,640
Speaker 1: throw a downfield. They play man coverage, and Jordan Love,

147
00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:09,160
Speaker 1: I mean, he tends to come alive in the playoffs

148
00:08:09,200 --> 00:08:12,320
Speaker 1: if he has any receivers. I mean that game against

149
00:08:12,360 --> 00:08:14,680
Speaker 1: what was it Philly last year, everyone just was dropping

150
00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:17,520
Speaker 1: like flies. But should be a little bit healthier or

151
00:08:17,560 --> 00:08:21,680
Speaker 1: a lot healthier here a receiver for the Packers.

152
00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:23,040
Speaker 2: I'm high on.

153
00:08:24,400 --> 00:08:28,000
Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford throwing up against Carolina. I know he threw

154
00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:32,320
Speaker 1: some picks in that last matchup, but Carolina is dead

155
00:08:32,400 --> 00:08:35,360
Speaker 1: lasting pressure eight twenty third pass Dvoa. You've got Haige

156
00:08:35,400 --> 00:08:38,160
Speaker 1: be back. It looks like Davontae Adams is gonna be back.

157
00:08:38,200 --> 00:08:40,079
Speaker 1: So you're gonna have your full compliment of weapons. You're

158
00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:42,520
Speaker 1: gonna have that the threat of that play action game

159
00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:47,120
Speaker 1: for Matthew Stafford just the whole everything working for him

160
00:08:47,400 --> 00:08:50,480
Speaker 1: and this Carolina team that I mean shouldn't even really

161
00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:53,160
Speaker 1: be in the playoffs. That's just the NFC South for you.

162
00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:56,400
Speaker 1: So I think Stafford can have a big game here.

163
00:08:56,559 --> 00:08:58,800
Speaker 1: I know he's just been kind of a pick machine

164
00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:01,920
Speaker 1: at certain times ever since breaking that record for the

165
00:09:01,960 --> 00:09:04,079
Speaker 1: most consecutive touchdowns without a pick.

166
00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:06,439
Speaker 2: I believe it was, so it's been interesting.

167
00:09:06,440 --> 00:09:09,559
Speaker 1: But I do think no pressure, even though it's outdoors

168
00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:13,959
Speaker 1: for Carolina, you just can't, you know, let Stafford sit

169
00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:17,040
Speaker 1: back in the pocket with Davonte, with Puka, with all

170
00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:19,240
Speaker 1: those tight ends, with the play actual game like, it's

171
00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:22,200
Speaker 1: just it's not gonna go well for the for the Panthers.

172
00:09:22,240 --> 00:09:24,960
Speaker 1: So yeah, love Matthew Stafford this week. Even though he

173
00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:28,160
Speaker 1: is a pocket passer. I do think he can put

174
00:09:28,200 --> 00:09:30,480
Speaker 1: up some big numbers here, all right, who you long?

175
00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:34,240
Speaker 3: Well, I'm gonna go the easier route here and go

176
00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:37,880
Speaker 3: with Aaron Rodgers, who I have ranked dead last but

177
00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:43,079
Speaker 3: by two full points below Bryce Young. I mean, everybody

178
00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:45,680
Speaker 3: has a tougher matchup this weekend because it is the playoffs,

179
00:09:45,720 --> 00:09:50,320
Speaker 3: but Rogers obviously gets, you know, the most brutal matchup

180
00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:52,920
Speaker 3: here against the Texans and what could be, you know,

181
00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:56,040
Speaker 3: is the final game of his career if the Steelers

182
00:09:56,040 --> 00:09:56,439
Speaker 3: lose here.

183
00:09:56,480 --> 00:10:00,240
Speaker 4: But the silver lining is he will be getting dk

184
00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:01,040
Speaker 4: Metcalf back.

185
00:10:01,400 --> 00:10:03,360
Speaker 3: I think that's gonna get be a boost from the

186
00:10:03,400 --> 00:10:07,199
Speaker 3: passing game because that wide receiver depth chart is just

187
00:10:07,200 --> 00:10:11,160
Speaker 3: just awful without Dk, so getting him back will certainly help.

188
00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:14,679
Speaker 3: But yeah, the you know, the Texans ranked second and

189
00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:18,040
Speaker 3: DdO against the pass, and you know Rogers, you know,

190
00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:20,480
Speaker 3: he's not going to be able to provide you any

191
00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:24,440
Speaker 3: rushing upside at all to kind of overcome this tougher matchup.

192
00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:27,000
Speaker 3: That's where Bryce Young, you know, has the edge on

193
00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:29,400
Speaker 3: him where you know, he has a brutal matchup against

194
00:10:29,400 --> 00:10:31,400
Speaker 3: the Rams as well, but he could he could rush

195
00:10:31,440 --> 00:10:34,880
Speaker 3: for twenty plus yards if needed to help offset it

196
00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:38,840
Speaker 3: a bit. So Rogers again, he's two full points lower

197
00:10:38,880 --> 00:10:42,160
Speaker 3: than Bryce Young as my number twelve QB this week.

198
00:10:42,760 --> 00:10:47,240
Speaker 1: And no respect for the twenty yard scramble that Rogers brought.

199
00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:49,559
Speaker 1: And he should have had a second one, remember the

200
00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:51,960
Speaker 1: one where he yeah, he was like going towards the side,

201
00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:54,199
Speaker 1: he looked like he had an angle and he just

202
00:10:54,280 --> 00:10:56,760
Speaker 1: he didn't trust it and just cold up and did

203
00:10:56,920 --> 00:10:58,920
Speaker 1: like just throw it out of bounds type of thing.

204
00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:02,760
Speaker 1: But yeah, I had about twenty six rushing yards on

205
00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:04,920
Speaker 1: two carries, and he yeah.

206
00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:08,120
Speaker 3: Six the game before, nine the game before. So if anything, yeah,

207
00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:12,200
Speaker 3: maybe ladder his rushing yards. It is his final game.

208
00:11:12,240 --> 00:11:15,400
Speaker 3: Maybe he gets uh you know, some percoset to help

209
00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:18,640
Speaker 3: him through it or something. But yeah, it is ironic

210
00:11:18,640 --> 00:11:20,280
Speaker 3: that I bring it up after, you know, this three

211
00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:22,560
Speaker 3: game stretch where he has five plus rushing yards.

212
00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:25,880
Speaker 4: But I digress. It's still an absolutely brutal matchup.

213
00:11:26,640 --> 00:11:28,720
Speaker 1: Also, you can't just call it his last game like

214
00:11:28,760 --> 00:11:29,800
Speaker 1: he could. Absolutely.

215
00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:30,520
Speaker 3: Uh.

216
00:11:30,679 --> 00:11:33,240
Speaker 2: They're like the Steelers, are they That's all they do

217
00:11:33,320 --> 00:11:38,760
Speaker 2: is upset people. As I think they're gonna now Rogers though,

218
00:11:39,160 --> 00:11:39,880
Speaker 2: just like the right you.

219
00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:41,760
Speaker 4: Know I said, I said, I said it'd be his

220
00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:42,959
Speaker 4: last game if they lose.

221
00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:46,800
Speaker 3: But okay, I'm assuming you'll be on the Steelers plus

222
00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:47,320
Speaker 3: three and a half.

223
00:11:47,320 --> 00:11:47,960
Speaker 4: How could you not?

224
00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:51,199
Speaker 2: Probably? But I do.

225
00:11:51,400 --> 00:11:53,200
Speaker 1: I do respect the Texas, so I gotta I gotta

226
00:11:53,240 --> 00:11:54,760
Speaker 1: look more at that might be like an under type

227
00:11:54,760 --> 00:11:59,319
Speaker 1: of situation. But yeah, I mean Aaron Rodgers only has uh,

228
00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:01,680
Speaker 1: I mean he he haes Kenneth Gainwell, which who's like

229
00:12:01,760 --> 00:12:05,480
Speaker 1: Marshall Falk But yeah, I don't know Metcalf moves to needle.

230
00:12:08,200 --> 00:12:11,839
Speaker 1: I'm well on the other quarterback in that game, cee J. Stroud,

231
00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:15,360
Speaker 1: And this is just kind of you know, the Steelers defense.

232
00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:18,200
Speaker 1: I know they had some breakdowns against Lamar Jackson and

233
00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:21,400
Speaker 1: so the efficiency numbers look bad, but overall they have

234
00:12:21,520 --> 00:12:25,000
Speaker 1: been trending up. You know, you're gonna have watt in there,

235
00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:28,800
Speaker 1: you're gonna have a pass rush, You're gonna be at home,

236
00:12:28,880 --> 00:12:32,480
Speaker 1: and you're you're playing CJ. Stroud, who's used to playing indoors.

237
00:12:32,520 --> 00:12:33,559
Speaker 2: At home, he.

238
00:12:33,559 --> 00:12:36,240
Speaker 1: Averages just under two hundred and sixty yards passing. When

239
00:12:36,240 --> 00:12:38,520
Speaker 1: he goes on the road, that drops under two hundred

240
00:12:38,520 --> 00:12:41,360
Speaker 1: and fifteen, So drops about forty five yards per game,

241
00:12:42,440 --> 00:12:45,920
Speaker 1: you know, over eight yards in attempt at home, under

242
00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:49,040
Speaker 1: seven yards in attempt on the road. For his career,

243
00:12:49,120 --> 00:12:51,920
Speaker 1: one point six touchdowns at home, one point one on

244
00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:56,120
Speaker 1: the road, more interceptions on the road, and the passer

245
00:12:56,160 --> 00:12:57,320
Speaker 1: rating goes from one on one.

246
00:12:57,160 --> 00:13:01,520
Speaker 2: To eighty five. So just not a great spo for CJ. Stroud.

247
00:13:01,559 --> 00:13:04,480
Speaker 1: One of those guys that you just like to fade with,

248
00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:06,360
Speaker 1: you know, when he had you know, based on his

249
00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:09,200
Speaker 1: home road splits, especially when it's an outdoor type of situation.

250
00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:12,240
Speaker 1: And this is just I mean it for the Texas

251
00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:15,720
Speaker 1: to be that hot and still get dismatch up, it's

252
00:13:15,800 --> 00:13:17,640
Speaker 1: not a short thing at all, like as.

253
00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:18,120
Speaker 2: You alluded to.

254
00:13:18,280 --> 00:13:20,680
Speaker 1: So you know, maybe they try to keep it on

255
00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:23,360
Speaker 1: the ground more woody Marx. We'll see, but uh.

256
00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:25,280
Speaker 2: You know that that that Texans on line.

257
00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:28,720
Speaker 1: Still a little bit shaky. So not not feeling great

258
00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:31,240
Speaker 1: about Stroud this week. All right, what are we doing

259
00:13:31,280 --> 00:13:32,160
Speaker 1: for the prop.

260
00:13:33,559 --> 00:13:36,160
Speaker 3: Let's do a fun one. Let's I offered you this

261
00:13:36,280 --> 00:13:41,120
Speaker 3: last year. But let's go with the most passing yards

262
00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:44,679
Speaker 3: this weekend. So any quarterback, just what's what's the week

263
00:13:44,840 --> 00:13:50,480
Speaker 3: high in passing yards? Last year? It was it was

264
00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:54,800
Speaker 3: actually a low yardage opening weekend. I think CJ. Stroud

265
00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:57,800
Speaker 3: had the most. He had three eighty two. Yeah, that

266
00:13:57,960 --> 00:14:02,440
Speaker 3: led the weekend. The wildcore weekend before that in twenty

267
00:14:02,520 --> 00:14:08,840
Speaker 3: twenty three, there was at least four players. Yeah, Flacco

268
00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:14,720
Speaker 3: Dak had four hundred and three, Stafford had three sixty seven. Uh,

269
00:14:14,760 --> 00:14:18,920
Speaker 3: and Baker Mayfield had three thirty seven. So I'm gonna

270
00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:21,080
Speaker 3: set it. I actually ran the sim on this so

271
00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:24,560
Speaker 3: My median for this is three hundred and twenty and

272
00:14:24,640 --> 00:14:27,480
Speaker 3: a half passing yards. Do you think anyone's gonna clear that?

273
00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:30,760
Speaker 2: Ooh, three twenty and a half?

274
00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:34,880
Speaker 4: All games are outdoors.

275
00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:39,440
Speaker 1: They are, Yeah, yes, I'm gonna go over. It is

276
00:14:39,600 --> 00:14:42,960
Speaker 1: it is a it is a kind of an ugly slate,

277
00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:45,120
Speaker 1: you know, median wise, and you do have a bunch

278
00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:48,320
Speaker 1: of outdoor games. But like I said, you know, I

279
00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:50,520
Speaker 1: think Stafford's in a good spot even though he's outdoors.

280
00:14:50,560 --> 00:14:52,960
Speaker 1: And then a lot of these games are close. So

281
00:14:53,040 --> 00:14:55,440
Speaker 1: that's the other thing. It's you know, aside from that

282
00:14:55,720 --> 00:14:58,320
Speaker 1: game where I think the passer probably is the best matchup,

283
00:14:58,360 --> 00:15:01,040
Speaker 1: which is Stafford, all the those other games are expected

284
00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:03,440
Speaker 1: to be pretty close, so you know that could drive

285
00:15:03,520 --> 00:15:06,480
Speaker 1: up the passing yardage on either side. Came with I

286
00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:08,920
Speaker 1: mean the Bears, somebody's gonna get down real big and

287
00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:12,640
Speaker 1: have like we've see this most years, especially the most

288
00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:14,760
Speaker 1: likely time to see it, I think is the wildcard round.

289
00:15:14,880 --> 00:15:17,240
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm gonna go. I'm gonna go over.

290
00:15:17,280 --> 00:15:20,520
Speaker 1: I could see uh, you know, Trevor Lawrence having to

291
00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:23,280
Speaker 1: do it, Josh having to do it, somebody. I could

292
00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:26,160
Speaker 1: even see Hurts having to do it in that San

293
00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:29,560
Speaker 1: Francisco game, depending on how the Eagles you know, play

294
00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:30,440
Speaker 1: and run the football.

295
00:15:30,520 --> 00:15:34,480
Speaker 2: So yeah, I do. I lean over. It's it's a

296
00:15:34,520 --> 00:15:35,760
Speaker 2: good line and it's ugly.

297
00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:38,000
Speaker 1: It's an ugly slate like on on themediate, but yeah,

298
00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:39,160
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go over.

299
00:15:39,360 --> 00:15:39,880
Speaker 4: Yeah.

300
00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:44,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, with every game outdoors, that's interesting. But really no

301
00:15:44,400 --> 00:15:48,800
Speaker 3: bad weather expected. Maybe Carolina, but like you see Bill's Jaguars,

302
00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:51,720
Speaker 3: you think, oh it's in Buffalo, it's snowy, but it's

303
00:15:51,760 --> 00:15:55,520
Speaker 3: in Jacksonville because the Bills are the lower seeds, so

304
00:15:55,840 --> 00:15:58,680
Speaker 3: you know it's gonna be sixty seven. There barely any wins,

305
00:15:58,920 --> 00:16:02,280
Speaker 3: no rain. So yeah, like the weather looks like it's

306
00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:04,960
Speaker 3: gonna be pretty good this weekend. And like you said,

307
00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:06,560
Speaker 3: all it takes is like one team to kind of

308
00:16:06,560 --> 00:16:09,560
Speaker 3: get down big for someone just to have to get

309
00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:11,520
Speaker 3: you know, super pass heavy and clear it.

310
00:16:11,600 --> 00:16:15,440
Speaker 4: But yeah, three twenty and a half, it is about

311
00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:16,920
Speaker 4: the median from what I'm seeing.

312
00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:20,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, because you only have what's twelve guys in action,

313
00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:22,640
Speaker 1: so yeah, it's it's gonna be tough to clear. But

314
00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:25,600
Speaker 1: I just I mean, there's still too many there's too

315
00:16:25,600 --> 00:16:29,680
Speaker 1: many close matchups for me to fade that number. So yeah,

316
00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:32,200
Speaker 1: all right, let's go to running back top five?

317
00:16:32,240 --> 00:16:37,520
Speaker 3: Who got Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, James Cook, Kien Williams,

318
00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:38,600
Speaker 3: and Josh Jacobs.

319
00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:40,920
Speaker 2: Oh, I got.

320
00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:49,680
Speaker 1: McCaffrey, Cook, Barkley, Kiren, and Travis Eten Maybe nice.

321
00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:55,320
Speaker 3: Who I'm high on Kien Williams. Obviously, you know, Blake

322
00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:58,840
Speaker 3: Korn is my favorite back in the league right now.

323
00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:02,600
Speaker 3: But you know, I had been saying the last few

324
00:17:02,640 --> 00:17:04,920
Speaker 3: weeks of the season that they they had planned to

325
00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:07,680
Speaker 3: kind of get korm a little bit more involved to

326
00:17:07,760 --> 00:17:11,280
Speaker 3: kind of keep Kiren fresh for the playoffs. I don't

327
00:17:11,320 --> 00:17:13,080
Speaker 3: know if that's still the case, because Korme is so

328
00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:15,800
Speaker 3: good and you know, being able to kind of use

329
00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:18,280
Speaker 3: them in a fifty to fifty split keeps Kiren, you know,

330
00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:21,240
Speaker 3: fresh and even more efficient. So not sure what they'll

331
00:17:21,240 --> 00:17:23,399
Speaker 3: do here, but I'm assuming he will get you know,

332
00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:26,280
Speaker 3: a little bit more work, you know, since it is

333
00:17:26,320 --> 00:17:29,359
Speaker 3: the playoffs now. But this is a great matchup for

334
00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:32,439
Speaker 3: him because I mean, this is the most lopsided matchup

335
00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:33,960
Speaker 3: of the weekend. You have, you know, one of the

336
00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:37,120
Speaker 3: best teams right now facing one of the worst playoff

337
00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:40,920
Speaker 3: teams ever right in the Panthers, So you know they're obviously,

338
00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:43,639
Speaker 3: you know, double digit favorites on the road for a reason.

339
00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:47,119
Speaker 3: But you know, this is a good matchup because the

340
00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:52,400
Speaker 3: Panthers run defense ranks twenty fourth in DBA, but they've

341
00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:55,040
Speaker 3: been really vulnerable on inside runs. So if you look

342
00:17:55,080 --> 00:17:58,960
Speaker 3: at yards before contact on inside runs, they've allowed one

343
00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:01,800
Speaker 3: point six yards for contact, which is the second highest.

344
00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:05,040
Speaker 3: And Kiren that he typically just runs inside. He runs

345
00:18:05,040 --> 00:18:08,159
Speaker 3: inside on sixty four percent of his runs, which is

346
00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:10,680
Speaker 3: the second highest rate in the league. I think it's

347
00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:14,800
Speaker 3: James Cook is actually the highest. But anytime he gets

348
00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:17,639
Speaker 3: at least one yard before contact on inside runs, he's

349
00:18:17,680 --> 00:18:20,920
Speaker 3: averaging five point six yards per carry. So I'm expecting

350
00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:23,960
Speaker 3: him to be super efficient here, probably get more work

351
00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:27,320
Speaker 3: on early downs here than we've seen, you know, the

352
00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:29,199
Speaker 3: last month of the season. So I think this is

353
00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:31,320
Speaker 3: the perfect matchup for him to go off.

354
00:18:33,200 --> 00:18:35,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's gonna that's split is gonna be really interesting.

355
00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:38,040
Speaker 1: But Kyron's always, I mean, he's gonna get his one

356
00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:40,480
Speaker 1: way or another. He's always a focal point in the

357
00:18:40,480 --> 00:18:42,479
Speaker 1: plaintoff and that's what they're kind of saving him for

358
00:18:42,520 --> 00:18:47,000
Speaker 1: and using that committee. So, uh, Kiren's definitely I think

359
00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:49,080
Speaker 1: gonna get fed and then Korum. It's just it just

360
00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:51,240
Speaker 1: really depends on how, you know, if they can build

361
00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:54,040
Speaker 1: a big lead, I think kor then who he's in

362
00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:57,080
Speaker 1: the mix for, Like you know that pivot from Kiren

363
00:18:57,440 --> 00:18:59,760
Speaker 1: to Korum lead the game and rushing or something like that.

364
00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:01,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, that you like to do.

365
00:19:03,880 --> 00:19:06,560
Speaker 3: Has the highest inside run rate, usually running right into

366
00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:07,480
Speaker 3: a brick wall, but.

367
00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:11,560
Speaker 2: Hard Jordan baby, yeah.

368
00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:19,600
Speaker 1: Right, yeah, yeah, we'll see how that goes. Uh, I

369
00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:24,239
Speaker 1: am I'm highing Travis. I already mentioned it. But you know,

370
00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:28,439
Speaker 1: Jaguars at home, so this is not a you know,

371
00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:32,080
Speaker 1: go on the road against the Josh Allen team like

372
00:19:32,119 --> 00:19:32,439
Speaker 1: this is.

373
00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:33,840
Speaker 2: They're coming into your spot.

374
00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:36,840
Speaker 1: So the you know, the Jags still should be in

375
00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:38,840
Speaker 1: a good spot here to run the football.

376
00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:40,159
Speaker 2: I think they're gonna want to run the football.

377
00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:43,840
Speaker 1: Buffalo ranks thirty first in d v A against the run,

378
00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:47,080
Speaker 1: thirtieth in yards per carry allowed two running backs at

379
00:19:47,119 --> 00:19:49,879
Speaker 1: just under five. Uh, they're bad at giving up second

380
00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:51,720
Speaker 1: level yards, open field yards.

381
00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:54,480
Speaker 2: So this is a spot where ETN could break off some.

382
00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:59,159
Speaker 1: Explosives and you have you know, the rookie Touton and

383
00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:03,200
Speaker 1: you have Allen another rookie behind him, So et N

384
00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:05,920
Speaker 1: I could see his you know, carry share going up.

385
00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:08,199
Speaker 1: We started to see that down to stretch with Tutin

386
00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:11,000
Speaker 1: banged up anyway. You know, Etn was getting about eighty

387
00:20:11,040 --> 00:20:13,480
Speaker 1: percent of those backfield carries most of the year. He

388
00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:17,199
Speaker 1: was around like sixty five seventy. So I think this

389
00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:19,240
Speaker 1: is a spot where, you know, Wim Cohen may not

390
00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:21,639
Speaker 1: mess around. We saw how he did with Bucky Irving

391
00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:24,040
Speaker 1: last year. Where as you got down the stretch, Bucket

392
00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:25,560
Speaker 1: just started getting more and more and more carries.

393
00:20:25,600 --> 00:20:26,720
Speaker 2: I mean, Eaten is this guy.

394
00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:29,760
Speaker 1: I know Irving would compare more to Tuton, but Etn

395
00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:31,880
Speaker 1: is the guy in Jacksonville. So I could see him

396
00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:35,080
Speaker 1: just getting a massive workload here in a game that

397
00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:38,600
Speaker 1: the Jags can absolutely win or just have positive game

398
00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:42,000
Speaker 1: script in. So high on Etn this week?

399
00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:43,760
Speaker 2: Who you long?

400
00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:47,280
Speaker 3: I'm a low on Jalen Warren just because this is

401
00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:51,320
Speaker 3: a brutal matchup for him on the ground. Texans obviously

402
00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:54,840
Speaker 3: very good against the past, but still great against the run.

403
00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:57,879
Speaker 3: You know they ranked second in DVA against the run.

404
00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:01,320
Speaker 3: Plus this is a game where even if you think

405
00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:03,960
Speaker 3: you know, the Steelers will cover the three three and

406
00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:06,800
Speaker 3: a half, They're still expected a trail at a you know,

407
00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:10,040
Speaker 3: sixteen percent higher rate than normal just based on the spread,

408
00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:13,320
Speaker 3: so probably won't get as much volume on the ground.

409
00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:16,800
Speaker 3: And then you know, with Kenneth Gainwell really just dominating

410
00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:19,399
Speaker 3: the passing down work, it's just gonna be tougher for

411
00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:20,320
Speaker 3: Warren to overcome it.

412
00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:21,120
Speaker 2: Uh.

413
00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:25,200
Speaker 3: He did have a five catch thirty three yard receiving

414
00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:27,439
Speaker 3: line last week, but it was kind of fluky because

415
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:31,400
Speaker 3: he only ran around on twenty four percent of Rogers dropbacks,

416
00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:35,280
Speaker 3: which there was fifty of them, I believe, but he

417
00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:38,760
Speaker 3: saw just an insane forty two percent target rate that's

418
00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:43,119
Speaker 3: not sustainable. Getting dk metcalf back this week will probably

419
00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:46,359
Speaker 3: help lower that, but you know, his season rates closer

420
00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:48,800
Speaker 3: to twenty percent, so would expect him be you know,

421
00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:51,800
Speaker 3: closer to that. So he's just kind of like you know,

422
00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:54,359
Speaker 3: pigeonholed in there where he's going to have to be

423
00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:59,040
Speaker 3: super efficient on you know, limited early down work. Uh So, yeah,

424
00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:02,320
Speaker 3: after all that, you know, keV Gamwell really came on

425
00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:04,119
Speaker 3: strong tend of the year, and I have him ranked

426
00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:05,440
Speaker 3: higher than Warren again this week.

427
00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:07,800
Speaker 4: So Warren's all the way down to RB thirteen for

428
00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:08,480
Speaker 4: me this week.

429
00:22:08,680 --> 00:22:09,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, same for me.

430
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:13,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, game will twelve Warren thirteen, because yeah, we just

431
00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:15,639
Speaker 1: don't really know what he's going to get in the

432
00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:18,400
Speaker 1: passing passing game these days, it's like a seventy five

433
00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:19,160
Speaker 1: to twenty five split.

434
00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:23,640
Speaker 2: I am lo en Rico Dowdell.

435
00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:27,080
Speaker 1: Going up against the Rams just, you know, negative game

436
00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:30,880
Speaker 1: script for a team that has overachieved. I know he's

437
00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:32,440
Speaker 1: the lead back. I know they're going to try to

438
00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:33,879
Speaker 1: lean on him as long as they can, and they

439
00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:37,439
Speaker 1: are at home. But the interesting thing for me for

440
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:40,200
Speaker 1: this matchup is the Rams are expected to get back

441
00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:43,400
Speaker 1: safety Quentin Lake, who they just gave a new contract

442
00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:46,840
Speaker 1: to the first day of the new year, and he

443
00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:49,959
Speaker 1: was injured, so he must be they must expect him

444
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:53,119
Speaker 1: to come back here, and their run defense was just

445
00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:56,080
Speaker 1: completely different with him on the field the first eleven

446
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:58,920
Speaker 1: weeks of the season compared to off. They were allowing

447
00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:02,800
Speaker 1: just three point five five yards per carry in the

448
00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:06,000
Speaker 1: eleven weeks with Lake, and then that jumped up to

449
00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:09,600
Speaker 1: four point four, so nearly a full yard since he's

450
00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:12,359
Speaker 1: gone down. So if they get him back, that just

451
00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:14,560
Speaker 1: allows them to put a lot, you know, put some

452
00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:17,120
Speaker 1: other guys back in the right positions, and I think

453
00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:19,960
Speaker 1: their run defense the Rams that it could be a

454
00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:24,320
Speaker 1: little underrated here. So low on Dowdell, who you know,

455
00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:28,480
Speaker 1: still seeing the Lions share about sixty about two thirds,

456
00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:33,000
Speaker 1: about sixty sixty five thirty five over Tuba Hubbard right now.

457
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:36,360
Speaker 1: But Tuba does mix in for some more pass down

458
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:39,119
Speaker 1: work and that's what you might need in this matchup

459
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:40,600
Speaker 1: as a ten point underdog.

460
00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:43,080
Speaker 2: So low on doubtle.

461
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:45,439
Speaker 1: Running back prop, I think I want to go to

462
00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:49,560
Speaker 1: oh yeah, gotta go. You mentioned Josh Jacobs is in

463
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:52,840
Speaker 1: your top five. I mean, he's just been a disaster lately.

464
00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:57,960
Speaker 1: So but they are facing the Bears, who have a

465
00:23:58,000 --> 00:23:59,679
Speaker 1: pretty weak run defense.

466
00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:05,520
Speaker 2: All the thing is considered, So I'm gonna go with Jake.

467
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:10,760
Speaker 1: Let's go Jacobs versus Emmanuel Wilson rushing yards because I

468
00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:20,200
Speaker 1: think that they're inversely correlated. So let's go Jacobs minus

469
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:21,800
Speaker 1: forty two and a half.

470
00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm right around there.

471
00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 3: I have it closer to like forty three.

472
00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:30,359
Speaker 4: But you're right, Yeah, he's been rough.

473
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:33,960
Speaker 3: I think they've been kind of limiting him where you know,

474
00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:36,320
Speaker 3: he just didn't have it going, so they just figured

475
00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:39,440
Speaker 3: they would shut him down. And Wilson's been great, so

476
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:41,720
Speaker 3: you know they have a good backup. But have you

477
00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:45,840
Speaker 3: seen the So I'm gonna take, man, this is tough.

478
00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:49,639
Speaker 3: I think I'm going to take Jacob's here because I

479
00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:51,600
Speaker 3: am projecting him to kind of return of that.

480
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:57,440
Speaker 4: You know, sixty two of the total rushing shore.

481
00:24:57,440 --> 00:24:59,679
Speaker 3: I know you do it a little bit differently than me,

482
00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 3: but I have him kind of bouncing back to you know,

483
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:03,240
Speaker 3: his season high rates.

484
00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:05,320
Speaker 4: But I don't feel great about it.

485
00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 3: But if you look at the actual prop market, they

486
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:11,919
Speaker 3: have the spread at like fifty to fifty one. So

487
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:15,200
Speaker 3: would you be interested would you be more interested in

488
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:18,280
Speaker 3: like a Jacob's under or Wilson over based on that

489
00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:19,160
Speaker 3: split or both?

490
00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 1: Probably a Wilson over because I think you have some

491
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:26,760
Speaker 1: laddering opportunities, you know, you know, at a lower number,

492
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 1: because he could he could if he gets the hot hand.

493
00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:32,000
Speaker 1: I mean, I think Jacobs probably will still get you know,

494
00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:34,920
Speaker 1: the first driver too, but Wilson gets the hot hand,

495
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:37,400
Speaker 1: I think he would mix in more so he could

496
00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:39,280
Speaker 1: have a he could have like one hundred yard game

497
00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:42,719
Speaker 1: off the bench too. But yeah, it's hard to project

498
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:45,399
Speaker 1: right next. So I'm essentially saying, yeah, like, is Jacob's

499
00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:49,119
Speaker 1: gonna get like more than ten carries than Wilson in

500
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:51,679
Speaker 1: this game? Uh, that's I don't know, that's kind of

501
00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:54,280
Speaker 1: up for debate these days. Just yeah, I mean just

502
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:56,159
Speaker 1: that don't really have much to go off of lately

503
00:25:56,760 --> 00:26:01,040
Speaker 1: because it's just very like So, I do think there

504
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:03,199
Speaker 1: is at least there's got to be at least some

505
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:06,199
Speaker 1: concern about the split. I do think that, you know,

506
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:08,879
Speaker 1: the matchup is gonna be a little bit forgiving for

507
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:12,440
Speaker 1: both guys. But you know, like Wilson is is gonna

508
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 1: be ranked way down there and he could end up

509
00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:18,480
Speaker 1: having a better game than like Monoga and I, who

510
00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:20,640
Speaker 1: is like what you would think as a number two

511
00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:22,800
Speaker 1: back in this game, would would have the better games.

512
00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:24,840
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm kind of I'm kind of watching this

513
00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 1: one because I'm I don't know if Jacobs is fully healthy.

514
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:29,679
Speaker 1: I know he's had time off to heal, but I

515
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:31,560
Speaker 1: just don't know if he'll ever get right this year.

516
00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:36,680
Speaker 3: So yeahs Wilson's prop is nineteen and a half rushing yards.

517
00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:39,040
Speaker 4: So let me take a step back. Do you do

518
00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:40,760
Speaker 4: you like the Packers here? Uh?

519
00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:45,280
Speaker 3: Co but like win the game, because if you do,

520
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:50,880
Speaker 3: then that's that's even more in the favor of Wilson.

521
00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:54,639
Speaker 3: If you like the Bears, then I would be more

522
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:58,600
Speaker 3: interested in fading Jacob's you know what I mean. So yeah,

523
00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:01,200
Speaker 3: if you think the Packers are probably gonna win, then

524
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:04,119
Speaker 3: I would rather back Wilson here. But it is a

525
00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:06,439
Speaker 3: big split right now on the prop market.

526
00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:09,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I it's it's a tough call.

527
00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:12,919
Speaker 1: I do think the Bears have a bet, like you

528
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:15,440
Speaker 1: know there, I think their rightful favorite is the way

529
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:16,760
Speaker 1: the Packers are playing these days.

530
00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:18,840
Speaker 2: I mean, their defense is not going to be the same.

531
00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:22,639
Speaker 1: But yeah, like it's just more a question mark for

532
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:24,480
Speaker 1: me when I haven't seen a guy in so long,

533
00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:28,920
Speaker 1: you know, And then the team was already kind of

534
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:32,000
Speaker 1: getting a little weird with the with the splits as

535
00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:34,800
Speaker 1: as he was kind of struggling. I just don't know

536
00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:36,439
Speaker 1: how long they stick with him because he's already not

537
00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:39,240
Speaker 1: getting as much passing down work. So like for fantasy,

538
00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:41,040
Speaker 1: I think that could be you know, it could be

539
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:43,199
Speaker 1: significant because everyone's going to be expecting just like a

540
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:44,520
Speaker 1: monster game from Jacobs.

541
00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:47,320
Speaker 2: He's been rested going against a bad defense, so.

542
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:54,080
Speaker 1: I'd probably be more interested in fading Jacobs medians, but Wilson,

543
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:56,760
Speaker 1: like I said, I think he has great ladder opportunities

544
00:27:56,840 --> 00:28:01,000
Speaker 1: because he could just double triple, quadruple, you know his number,

545
00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:03,240
Speaker 1: and regardless of what happens to Jacobs.

546
00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:06,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, And the Packers, like and as Russia tent

547
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:10,440
Speaker 3: prop is seventeen and a half, which is a bit high.

548
00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:10,760
Speaker 2: Yeah.

549
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:14,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Packers they love to mix in, you know,

550
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:20,439
Speaker 3: like Jayden Reid you get save on Williams is on

551
00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:22,720
Speaker 3: the O. But then yeah, yeah, but they love to

552
00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:24,560
Speaker 3: just kind of mix it up a little bit by

553
00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 3: giving you know, their wide receivers some design looks Chris

554
00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:31,239
Speaker 3: Brooks could get a carry or two.

555
00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:31,840
Speaker 4: You never know.

556
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:34,360
Speaker 3: So it's just like Jacobs has a much lower floor

557
00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:36,800
Speaker 3: than I think the market's kind of leading on right now.

558
00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:42,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Packers, I believe they are the they give

559
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:47,280
Speaker 1: the ball the most to uh like non running backs.

560
00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:49,640
Speaker 1: I mean, don't check that because yeah, they're they're they're

561
00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:56,320
Speaker 1: way up there. Yeah, about eight percent of their designed carries,

562
00:28:56,800 --> 00:28:59,160
Speaker 1: like non quarterback design carries go to.

563
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:02,160
Speaker 2: Go to the.

564
00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:05,560
Speaker 1: Go to like non running backs. Like, so it's like

565
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:08,080
Speaker 1: wide receivers, tight ends guys like that.

566
00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:08,200
Speaker 3: That.

567
00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:11,880
Speaker 1: Yes, definitely the highest in the playoff field. I believe

568
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 1: it's the highest for anybody.

569
00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:17,160
Speaker 3: Let's see, some of those could have been Tucker Craft

570
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:20,960
Speaker 3: though I don't know if they're giving Muskrave any kind

571
00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 3: of looks like that. But they either way, they do

572
00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:26,560
Speaker 3: like to to mix things up more than you Saints.

573
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, only the Saints because it tastes them have more.

574
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:31,959
Speaker 1: But yeah, it's I mean, no, you have like Bo Melton,

575
00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:36,160
Speaker 1: gets carries, Golden gets carries pretty much any receiver that

576
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:40,480
Speaker 1: they have in there except Dobbs. Uh, we'll get We'll

577
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:41,200
Speaker 1: get the right.

578
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:45,600
Speaker 3: You could probably see it coming with him.

579
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:47,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, just leave him on the outside. Let

580
00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:51,840
Speaker 1: them catch touchdowns, all right. Receiver we're looking at for

581
00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:52,800
Speaker 1: our top five.

582
00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:56,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I got Puka Nikua, A J Brown, Nico Collins,

583
00:29:56,600 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 3: DeVante Adams, and Davante Smith.

584
00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:06,840
Speaker 1: I got Pooka, Nico, aj Stefon Diggs, and Davante Adams.

585
00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:08,920
Speaker 2: Now we don't.

586
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:11,040
Speaker 1: I mean, I guess he's gonna play right if he's

587
00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:14,480
Speaker 1: well yeah, oh yeah yeah. But as long as he's

588
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:16,680
Speaker 1: in there, yeah, I'm pretty I mean, well, let me not,

589
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:19,680
Speaker 1: let me not get ahead of myself, who are you high?

590
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:26,640
Speaker 3: I'm on DeVante Smith, who I kind of like his

591
00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:29,719
Speaker 3: Week eighteen usage. He came in there just for like

592
00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:33,040
Speaker 3: a driver too to get I think he needed like fifty,

593
00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:36,120
Speaker 3: like forty five fifty yards to get a thousand, and

594
00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:38,400
Speaker 3: he got that like super quick and then he got

595
00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 3: out of there.

596
00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:40,080
Speaker 4: So it's kind of nice.

597
00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:41,720
Speaker 3: He got in the game, got a little bit of work,

598
00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:44,720
Speaker 3: and then got plenty of rest. But this week is

599
00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:48,040
Speaker 3: you know, a plus matchup for him against the Niners.

600
00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:50,840
Speaker 3: You know they've used man coverage at a bottom ten

601
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:54,240
Speaker 3: rate on the season. Usually you know, aj Brown dominates

602
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 3: first man and Smith, you know, leads a team with

603
00:30:57,320 --> 00:31:01,320
Speaker 3: a two point two yards per run against zone.

604
00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:05,400
Speaker 4: But this is just a great matchup against the Niners, who.

605
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:08,640
Speaker 3: You know, they've been awful this year and you know

606
00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:12,440
Speaker 3: rank twenty six and dvoa against the pass. But you know,

607
00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 3: Smith leads a team with a two point six yards

608
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:17,880
Speaker 3: per out run when Hurts has a clean pocket, and

609
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:21,120
Speaker 3: you know, ever since Nick Bosa went down in Week

610
00:31:21,160 --> 00:31:24,920
Speaker 3: three for the Niners, Dave generated the second lowest pressure rate,

611
00:31:25,040 --> 00:31:27,560
Speaker 3: So I think, you know, Hurts should have a pretty

612
00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:31,240
Speaker 3: clean pocket here. He's not really scrambling as much this year,

613
00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:34,680
Speaker 3: so he's looking to throw. So I think this sets up,

614
00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:38,120
Speaker 3: you know, as a blowout spot for Smith. So yeah,

615
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:40,840
Speaker 3: he's he's top five, and he's a guy that you

616
00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:43,120
Speaker 3: knows prop market's about right. But you know, taking some

617
00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:46,280
Speaker 3: all overs in this spot makes sense, especially if you

618
00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 3: know the Niners are able to put up points. This

619
00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 3: game could turn a shootout and you kind of alluded,

620
00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:53,240
Speaker 3: you know, Hurts could end up having a big game here.

621
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:55,640
Speaker 3: So I think guys like Smith might see you know,

622
00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:57,880
Speaker 3: higher singing than the normal this week.

623
00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:01,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, Devonte against those uh that zone coverage should be

624
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:04,160
Speaker 1: should be a very good match up for him. It's

625
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:06,520
Speaker 1: been a little less I guess it's been. It hasn't

626
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:08,840
Speaker 1: been this pronounced this year at times, Like I think

627
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:10,880
Speaker 1: A J's just been good regardless, that's really what it's

628
00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:13,520
Speaker 1: been like. He's just been good every like week in

629
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:16,520
Speaker 1: week out. But yeah, Smith's should be a really good

630
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:20,600
Speaker 1: spot from that Niner defense can't can't do anything. Although

631
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:23,920
Speaker 1: I mean they did hold the Seahawks at thirteen, but

632
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 1: that was a division game, second division game. The fresh

633
00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:29,200
Speaker 1: one is already low scoring. I could see, I can

634
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:31,040
Speaker 1: see point.

635
00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:35,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, if they win this week, Fred Warner might be back, right,

636
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:38,920
Speaker 3: like he's kind of looking for the the divisional round.

637
00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:40,560
Speaker 4: That that'd be a huge left.

638
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:43,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, but they'll get like five more guys injured if

639
00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:47,960
Speaker 2: they somehow that's true. Yeah, like the Thune was going

640
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:51,920
Speaker 2: down like every other play. Oh yeah he's yeah, he's out.

641
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:52,600
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah.

642
00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:56,520
Speaker 3: Winters is questionable. So yeah, they but they they were

643
00:32:56,560 --> 00:33:00,120
Speaker 3: able to get Kendricks a few weeks ago, right, so

644
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:02,760
Speaker 3: he's he's able to fill in for now. But getting

645
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:07,640
Speaker 3: assuming they advance, which is a big assumption, they might

646
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:08,440
Speaker 3: get Warner back.

647
00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, that would be that would be really interesting. I

648
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:16,560
Speaker 1: mean the Niners, I I think they're underrated team, but

649
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:18,520
Speaker 1: just I don't know if they can overcome the injuries.

650
00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:20,560
Speaker 1: But at the same time, we've also seen the Eagles

651
00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:23,600
Speaker 1: offense go quiet at times, so we'll see how that

652
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:24,760
Speaker 1: that one ends up playing out.

653
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:28,480
Speaker 2: But for me, high on.

654
00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:30,160
Speaker 1: Just like you had your guy in your top five

655
00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:33,000
Speaker 1: that you're high with Davonte for me as Stefan Diggs,

656
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:36,800
Speaker 1: and you know the reason being so for one, you know,

657
00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:39,320
Speaker 1: back hollins On I R for the Patriots, you know

658
00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:43,320
Speaker 1: he was commanding a pretty decent target share and route

659
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:46,400
Speaker 1: share in this offense, you replaced out with more you know,

660
00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:50,600
Speaker 1: Kyle Williams, Kay Shawn Boute like that's those are lower

661
00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:53,160
Speaker 1: percentage route runners, guys that aren't getting targeted as much.

662
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:56,719
Speaker 1: Diggs also, they seem to be increasing his route rate

663
00:33:56,800 --> 00:34:00,600
Speaker 1: in important games, so you could see him run around

664
00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:02,800
Speaker 1: on you know, eighty ninety percent of the dropbacks in

665
00:34:02,800 --> 00:34:05,360
Speaker 1: this spot as opposed to the season average, which is

666
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:10,080
Speaker 1: around seventy percent. And then the Chargers, they have very

667
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:12,879
Speaker 1: good numbers on defense, they're very good defense, but when

668
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:15,759
Speaker 1: you look at their numbers against number one receivers, yes

669
00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:17,960
Speaker 1: they're they're in middle of the pack in DVOA, but

670
00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:22,680
Speaker 1: eight point two schedule adjusted targets to number one receivers,

671
00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:26,360
Speaker 1: five point five to number two, four point seven to three,

672
00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:29,759
Speaker 1: four and fives and on, and they're top three in

673
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:34,239
Speaker 1: DVOA versus number two wide receivers, number three wide receivers.

674
00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:38,560
Speaker 1: And then they allow almost nothing to running backs and

675
00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:40,719
Speaker 1: in not much, not much the tight ends either. So

676
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:44,799
Speaker 1: wide receiver ones are usually the ones that are getting

677
00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:47,840
Speaker 1: the bulk of the targets and production for this Charger

678
00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:51,319
Speaker 1: on this Charger defense, and I do expect Drake May

679
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:55,000
Speaker 1: to still move the football through the air in this spot.

680
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:57,719
Speaker 1: So I think Stefan Diggs is gonna be kind of

681
00:34:57,719 --> 00:35:01,120
Speaker 1: a little sneaky sneaky spot here because his.

682
00:35:00,840 --> 00:35:03,640
Speaker 2: His route rate has just been so suppressed the entire year.

683
00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:06,319
Speaker 1: But now it's go time for him and this and

684
00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:09,319
Speaker 1: this Patriot team, so charges do play about his own too,

685
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:12,680
Speaker 1: so there should be some some gimmeis too for Digs.

686
00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:16,520
Speaker 1: So like him as a top five receivers.

687
00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:18,919
Speaker 4: Yeah, where are you projecting his routson rate to open

688
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:19,200
Speaker 4: the way?

689
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:23,359
Speaker 1: Having an eighty percent, which is about ten percent higher

690
00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:25,799
Speaker 1: than a season average. But we've seen him hit that,

691
00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:31,480
Speaker 1: you know, in a bunch of important games throughout his season.

692
00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:35,520
Speaker 3: I is eighty nine percent yep, back in Week eleven.

693
00:35:35,760 --> 00:35:38,600
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's clearly they've been kind of limiting him

694
00:35:38,680 --> 00:35:42,000
Speaker 3: on purpose. So would imagine he's going to be operating

695
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:45,279
Speaker 3: closer to ceiling here, right around eighty percent, like you said.

696
00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, because yeah, Week sixteen, eighty percent, and in week

697
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:52,799
Speaker 1: seventeen seventy three percent, and then and then last week

698
00:35:52,880 --> 00:35:53,840
Speaker 1: they down.

699
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:55,759
Speaker 2: To sixty three percent. They didn't really need need a

700
00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:57,240
Speaker 2: little much.

701
00:35:57,280 --> 00:35:59,640
Speaker 1: But yeah, I think eighty percent is probably a fair

702
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:03,120
Speaker 1: seventy five to eighty five somewhere in there, probably where

703
00:36:03,160 --> 00:36:03,520
Speaker 1: he ends.

704
00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:06,560
Speaker 2: Up all right, who you are.

705
00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:11,120
Speaker 3: On Rama Dunsay, Assuming he returns this week from his

706
00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:14,160
Speaker 3: foot injury, which you know has held him out the

707
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:16,280
Speaker 3: last few games, it sounds like he's a lot closer

708
00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:19,000
Speaker 3: to one hundred percent. They were probably just being super

709
00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:22,520
Speaker 3: careful with that. But he is returning to a much

710
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:26,560
Speaker 3: more crowded room right now, because as he's been away,

711
00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:31,320
Speaker 3: we've seen Luther Burden finally have his breakout, but also

712
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:36,279
Speaker 3: Colson Lovelin as well, So it's hard to see either

713
00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:39,840
Speaker 3: rookie kind of slowing down here just because A Donsay's

714
00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:43,160
Speaker 3: back plus a Duneesay. You know, he tends to see

715
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:45,719
Speaker 3: most of his targets downfield, so he's just going to

716
00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:48,840
Speaker 3: have a wider ranger of outcomes now with a lower

717
00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:52,160
Speaker 3: target share presumably, So I have him wide receiver nineteen

718
00:36:52,640 --> 00:36:56,000
Speaker 3: Burden wide receiver fourteen. But this is sort of a

719
00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:59,800
Speaker 3: preview of next season where you know, I think Burden's

720
00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:03,239
Speaker 3: get to be the alpha in this offense. They'll potentially

721
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:06,960
Speaker 3: move on from DJ Moore, right, so I think Burden's

722
00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:08,959
Speaker 3: going to be the man and then Colston Loveland's gonna

723
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:10,800
Speaker 3: be a beast. So I think, you know, Dounsday is

724
00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:13,680
Speaker 3: going to be probably the number three target in this

725
00:37:13,760 --> 00:37:18,520
Speaker 3: offense going forward. This is all fantastic news for Caleb Williams.

726
00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:21,880
Speaker 3: By the way, next season he should be even better

727
00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:25,040
Speaker 3: kind of near to in the scheme. But from a donsay,

728
00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:28,239
Speaker 3: I still love him, you know, long term, but just

729
00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:31,240
Speaker 3: with Burden and Loveland there, it's hard to really project

730
00:37:31,320 --> 00:37:33,960
Speaker 3: him for you know, much of a target share, especially

731
00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:35,600
Speaker 3: in a game where you know he's coming back from

732
00:37:35,640 --> 00:37:36,680
Speaker 3: a foot injury here.

733
00:37:38,120 --> 00:37:41,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, and today Walker is starting to get something going too.

734
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:44,439
Speaker 1: I wonder, you know, he because he didn't steal really

735
00:37:44,440 --> 00:37:47,239
Speaker 1: any snaps earlier in the year, but saw that he

736
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:50,319
Speaker 1: kind of, you know, he was getting snaps over the

737
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:52,600
Speaker 1: keys lately, and so I want I wonder if he

738
00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:55,719
Speaker 1: steals like, uh, you know, a few snaps here and

739
00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:57,600
Speaker 1: there from from a dunesay and this one because the

740
00:37:57,640 --> 00:38:00,879
Speaker 1: DONA really hasn't been as active, like you said, when

741
00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:01,520
Speaker 1: he's on the field.

742
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:07,759
Speaker 2: Way, I'm low on DK Metcalf.

743
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:11,520
Speaker 1: I know Chris collins Worth was saying like, yeah, this

744
00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:14,839
Speaker 1: is this could be the most consequential suspension again a

745
00:38:14,840 --> 00:38:15,399
Speaker 1: long time.

746
00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:17,640
Speaker 2: And now he's back, and you.

747
00:38:17,560 --> 00:38:20,200
Speaker 1: Know, everyone expects the Steelers to just, you know, kind

748
00:38:20,200 --> 00:38:22,120
Speaker 1: of write the ship a little bit. But going up

749
00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:25,799
Speaker 1: against the Houston Texans defense, so this is still a

750
00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:28,000
Speaker 1: really tough matchup for Metcalf.

751
00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:31,680
Speaker 2: And we're still talking about, you know, the ghost of Aaron.

752
00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:36,080
Speaker 1: Rodgers here, and we're talking about this Texan defense in

753
00:38:36,120 --> 00:38:39,360
Speaker 1: a in a playoff environment and out the outdoors, you know, angle,

754
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:41,480
Speaker 1: I mean, I know Metcalf, they've been playing outdoors all year,

755
00:38:41,520 --> 00:38:43,959
Speaker 1: but this is an outdoor playoff game against the top

756
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:45,080
Speaker 1: pass defense.

757
00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:45,280
Speaker 2: In the league.

758
00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:49,000
Speaker 1: Is not really what I want for my you know,

759
00:38:49,080 --> 00:38:53,360
Speaker 1: number one receiver. So Houston this year the fourth fewest

760
00:38:53,640 --> 00:38:56,799
Speaker 1: schedule adjusted receiving yards allowed to number one receivers, just

761
00:38:57,000 --> 00:38:59,440
Speaker 1: forty seven according to FTN.

762
00:38:59,640 --> 00:39:01,360
Speaker 2: I mean, that is that's just nothing.

763
00:39:01,560 --> 00:39:05,120
Speaker 1: So it's it's gonna be tough here with with those cornerbacks,

764
00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:09,200
Speaker 1: that pass rush. Steelers offensive line hasn't been hasn't been great.

765
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:11,560
Speaker 1: It looked it looked pretty good against the Ravens. That

766
00:39:11,640 --> 00:39:13,719
Speaker 1: might be a Ravens problem. It's gonna be a big

767
00:39:13,719 --> 00:39:17,320
Speaker 1: step up in class here, So I know, Metcalf is

768
00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:19,480
Speaker 1: kind of shiny new toy coming up that suspension, and

769
00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:22,560
Speaker 1: there's he's kind of all they got, especially with you know,

770
00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:25,319
Speaker 1: they're down to tight end gain wells putting up you know,

771
00:39:25,440 --> 00:39:27,920
Speaker 1: so many yards in the in the receiving game, just

772
00:39:27,920 --> 00:39:30,720
Speaker 1: trying to tide them over. But I could easily see

773
00:39:30,840 --> 00:39:33,239
Speaker 1: you know, maybe like a Calvin Austin or MBS, somebody

774
00:39:33,280 --> 00:39:37,200
Speaker 1: getting single coverage might have They might make those kind

775
00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:39,920
Speaker 1: of guys beat him versus Metcalf, who I think is

776
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:42,440
Speaker 1: going to struggle a bit here. So and he could

777
00:39:42,480 --> 00:39:46,160
Speaker 1: also just self destruct because it's gonna be a frustrating game.

778
00:39:46,160 --> 00:39:48,280
Speaker 1: He could draw some you know, he could get ejected

779
00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:50,080
Speaker 1: or do something stupid. I mean, it's gonna be I

780
00:39:50,120 --> 00:39:52,479
Speaker 1: can see him getting frustrated with the on field play,

781
00:39:53,040 --> 00:39:54,719
Speaker 1: not the fans of the stands in this one.

782
00:39:54,760 --> 00:39:56,600
Speaker 2: So yeah, well one Metcalf.

783
00:39:56,880 --> 00:39:59,480
Speaker 4: That's why he has been out the last couple of games.

784
00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:02,719
Speaker 4: I could definitely see that. What's up? Or is he

785
00:40:03,719 --> 00:40:04,759
Speaker 4: back at practice yet?

786
00:40:04,800 --> 00:40:07,640
Speaker 3: Have you heard anything about him?

787
00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:11,400
Speaker 2: I was, I'm I'm expecting him to be back. But

788
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:13,360
Speaker 2: let's see, I don't imagine.

789
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:16,080
Speaker 3: They do have they play Monday night, so that does

790
00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:19,320
Speaker 3: buy him, you know, at least an extra day to return.

791
00:40:19,840 --> 00:40:22,839
Speaker 3: Probably it doesn't matter too much with Metcalf, but you know,

792
00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:24,320
Speaker 3: they're at full strength.

793
00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:27,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, it seems like they seems like it was just

794
00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:29,359
Speaker 1: a precautionary thing.

795
00:40:29,800 --> 00:40:31,960
Speaker 2: They you know, they held him out.

796
00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:34,239
Speaker 1: He had like ankle and knee, so just give him

797
00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:36,239
Speaker 1: time to get get right.

798
00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:37,600
Speaker 4: Held out there.

799
00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:41,080
Speaker 3: Fully healthy Nico in that game. So that was the

800
00:40:41,080 --> 00:40:43,360
Speaker 3: first signal they weren't taking this game too seriously.

801
00:40:44,840 --> 00:40:46,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, and I don't blame them. I don't

802
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:47,319
Speaker 2: blame them.

803
00:40:47,320 --> 00:40:49,839
Speaker 1: I mean, you got it, Like the Texas, they've they've

804
00:40:49,840 --> 00:40:53,400
Speaker 1: won a playoff game every year with with Stroud, you know,

805
00:40:53,680 --> 00:40:55,520
Speaker 1: like they've always won a first round game. So they're

806
00:40:55,560 --> 00:40:58,319
Speaker 1: kind of probably kicking deeper deeper into the playoffs. They

807
00:40:58,360 --> 00:41:01,239
Speaker 1: cannot lose. I mean, any of those guys really like

808
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:04,840
Speaker 1: they have a bunch of receivers, of replaceable receivers outside

809
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:07,799
Speaker 1: of Nico, like everything, And I mean, hey, you know,

810
00:41:07,800 --> 00:41:10,000
Speaker 1: we love Higgins, but I wish.

811
00:41:09,880 --> 00:41:12,879
Speaker 3: I knew that information before. I still end up winning

812
00:41:12,880 --> 00:41:15,440
Speaker 3: the bet miraculously, but I had I locked in Dalton

813
00:41:15,480 --> 00:41:17,440
Speaker 3: Schultz the night before at under four and a.

814
00:41:17,440 --> 00:41:19,560
Speaker 4: Half, oh I wonder.

815
00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:21,719
Speaker 3: I wondered why Jayden hick I was like, why is

816
00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:23,439
Speaker 3: Jayden Higgins prop so high?

817
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:25,759
Speaker 4: Right now? I was like, is somebody out, Like is

818
00:41:25,840 --> 00:41:27,920
Speaker 4: Christian Kirk out? Or like, what the hell's going on?

819
00:41:27,960 --> 00:41:31,160
Speaker 3: Didn't see anything, and so I locked in Schultz under

820
00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:33,680
Speaker 3: four and a half and then Nico's ruled out first

821
00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:34,400
Speaker 3: thing in the morning.

822
00:41:35,000 --> 00:41:36,120
Speaker 4: I was like, God, damn it.

823
00:41:36,360 --> 00:41:39,759
Speaker 3: But then I realized, you know, Schultz is gonna play obviously,

824
00:41:39,840 --> 00:41:45,320
Speaker 3: but you know, if you know the Jaguars h blow

825
00:41:45,560 --> 00:41:47,200
Speaker 3: you know they're in a blowout, you know we might

826
00:41:47,200 --> 00:41:49,359
Speaker 3: see them rest starters, so this might actually work out.

827
00:41:49,440 --> 00:41:50,640
Speaker 4: So that's exactly what happened.

828
00:41:50,640 --> 00:41:53,279
Speaker 3: You know, Schultz had four catches at halftime and then

829
00:41:53,360 --> 00:41:55,400
Speaker 3: they they pulled the starter. So I got lucky with

830
00:41:55,480 --> 00:41:57,480
Speaker 3: that one. But I was not expecting Nico to get

831
00:41:57,520 --> 00:41:58,160
Speaker 3: ruled out like that.

832
00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:00,799
Speaker 2: Yeah they do.

833
00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:06,040
Speaker 1: I think the year before twenty twenty four, they played

834
00:42:06,080 --> 00:42:08,359
Speaker 1: him like the entire like first series, but he got

835
00:42:08,400 --> 00:42:11,920
Speaker 1: like She's got targeted like five times on that series

836
00:42:12,080 --> 00:42:14,480
Speaker 1: for like I don't know if you needed I forget

837
00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:16,319
Speaker 1: if he needed to get over an incentive or it

838
00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:18,400
Speaker 1: was a milestone or what, but he I think he

839
00:42:18,440 --> 00:42:20,600
Speaker 1: had like thirty five yards and like five targets or

840
00:42:20,640 --> 00:42:22,799
Speaker 1: something and then just didn't play for the rest of

841
00:42:22,800 --> 00:42:24,359
Speaker 1: the game against like the Titans or something.

842
00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:25,919
Speaker 2: So yeah, Texans are weird like that.

843
00:42:26,920 --> 00:42:33,800
Speaker 1: But yeah, like the Texans moved on from Deshaun Watson

844
00:42:34,800 --> 00:42:38,560
Speaker 1: and they ended up with CJ. Stroud and then now

845
00:42:38,560 --> 00:42:44,320
Speaker 1: they're playing the Steelers, who just benefited from the Ravens kicker,

846
00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:48,239
Speaker 1: who's who's probably there because Justin Tucker was doing the

847
00:42:48,280 --> 00:42:52,759
Speaker 1: same things Watson was doing. And but the thing is

848
00:42:52,800 --> 00:42:57,440
Speaker 1: the Texans, the guy they made inactive for uh for Nico,

849
00:42:57,760 --> 00:42:59,439
Speaker 1: was Justin Watson, Like.

850
00:43:02,239 --> 00:43:06,480
Speaker 3: Justin, Oh my god, Yeah, how did you come up

851
00:43:06,520 --> 00:43:07,000
Speaker 3: with that?

852
00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:09,120
Speaker 4: That is that is insane.

853
00:43:09,960 --> 00:43:11,439
Speaker 2: I just don't believe that.

854
00:43:11,560 --> 00:43:13,359
Speaker 4: Who does that mean it is going to win? Then?

855
00:43:14,640 --> 00:43:15,000
Speaker 2: I don't know.

856
00:43:15,080 --> 00:43:18,640
Speaker 1: I mean, the Texans have Justin and Watson, so I

857
00:43:18,680 --> 00:43:24,919
Speaker 1: feel like, yeah, them the win the war.

858
00:43:25,000 --> 00:43:25,759
Speaker 2: I don't know, I don't know.

859
00:43:26,480 --> 00:43:29,080
Speaker 3: So they're gonna so they're gonna win by three uh

860
00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:32,520
Speaker 3: no cash the money line, but lose.

861
00:43:32,560 --> 00:43:35,319
Speaker 4: By yes, that could be it.

862
00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:39,160
Speaker 2: That could be I mean realistic. I mean I don't know.

863
00:43:39,320 --> 00:43:39,640
Speaker 4: I don't know.

864
00:43:40,120 --> 00:43:41,640
Speaker 2: That's a this is a tough game. This is a

865
00:43:41,680 --> 00:43:42,080
Speaker 2: tough game.

866
00:43:42,200 --> 00:43:45,120
Speaker 1: I know, the handicapped because the Steelers they're not dead,

867
00:43:45,200 --> 00:43:46,759
Speaker 1: but they might be dead.

868
00:43:48,640 --> 00:43:52,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it is at home though, Yeah, ye

869
00:43:53,200 --> 00:43:56,840
Speaker 3: Stroud playing outdoors. It should be pretty cold, right, I

870
00:43:56,840 --> 00:43:58,360
Speaker 3: mean he's an l a boy. He doesn't like the

871
00:43:58,440 --> 00:44:02,120
Speaker 3: cold weather. H Yeah, yeah, it's gonna be pretty in

872
00:44:02,120 --> 00:44:05,960
Speaker 3: efficient name, I would consider thirty three degrees cold.

873
00:44:06,560 --> 00:44:06,759
Speaker 2: Yeah.

874
00:44:06,880 --> 00:44:09,080
Speaker 1: Then the Texans, who's like thirty four to two or

875
00:44:09,120 --> 00:44:12,560
Speaker 1: something last year to somebody like it was the Ravens.

876
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:16,200
Speaker 1: I think they lost, Yeah, because absolutely just he could

877
00:44:16,239 --> 00:44:20,359
Speaker 1: just yeah, they could go quiet too. So yeah, it's tough, tough,

878
00:44:20,440 --> 00:44:21,280
Speaker 1: probably an undergame.

879
00:44:22,760 --> 00:44:23,520
Speaker 2: Let's see what are we?

880
00:44:23,680 --> 00:44:23,799
Speaker 1: Uh?

881
00:44:24,480 --> 00:44:26,040
Speaker 2: Do we do a wide receiver prop?

882
00:44:26,160 --> 00:44:26,359
Speaker 1: Yeah?

883
00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:27,360
Speaker 4: I got one for you.

884
00:44:27,520 --> 00:44:30,959
Speaker 3: Okay, I want your opinion on this, but I'm gonna

885
00:44:30,960 --> 00:44:33,920
Speaker 3: go DeVante Adams expecting the return here.

886
00:44:35,520 --> 00:44:40,560
Speaker 4: Receiving arts fifty three and a half. Mm hmmm hmm.

887
00:44:40,560 --> 00:44:44,240
Speaker 1: That's tough because I do like Stafford here, I actually

888
00:44:44,280 --> 00:44:46,520
Speaker 1: have it under so yeah, I'm a little under that.

889
00:44:48,160 --> 00:44:51,280
Speaker 1: And the thing about it is he gets he's targeted

890
00:44:51,320 --> 00:44:53,839
Speaker 1: so often in the red zone, but you know it's

891
00:44:53,840 --> 00:44:56,520
Speaker 1: his first game back. How much you know, is he

892
00:44:56,560 --> 00:45:00,239
Speaker 1: targeted all over the field and does he play much?

893
00:45:00,239 --> 00:45:02,920
Speaker 1: Does he play in single receiver sets too, because I

894
00:45:02,920 --> 00:45:04,839
Speaker 1: mean they you know, they've been going with Monk field there,

895
00:45:04,840 --> 00:45:07,200
Speaker 1: and I mean I would assume if Puka's still got

896
00:45:07,200 --> 00:45:10,000
Speaker 1: to be like first choice, if you're gonna have only

897
00:45:10,040 --> 00:45:13,120
Speaker 1: one receiver on the field in an important spot unless

898
00:45:13,120 --> 00:45:14,960
Speaker 1: it's the red zone. So yeah, I think Adams could.

899
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:18,040
Speaker 1: He could, he could get two touchdowns, but the yardage

900
00:45:18,120 --> 00:45:22,520
Speaker 1: just because he's targeted so much in the red zone. Yeah,

901
00:45:22,560 --> 00:45:24,239
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go under that. I'm gonna go and it

902
00:45:24,400 --> 00:45:25,160
Speaker 1: could be a blowout.

903
00:45:25,480 --> 00:45:28,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, so we'd love to hear that. I

904
00:45:28,040 --> 00:45:31,480
Speaker 3: already locked in. I bet this morning on him. I

905
00:45:31,520 --> 00:45:35,880
Speaker 3: saw his receptions prop under four and a half was

906
00:45:35,960 --> 00:45:38,880
Speaker 3: minus one twenty five and I couldn't hit that quick enough.

907
00:45:39,280 --> 00:45:41,560
Speaker 3: So that was my first bet. I log this week,

908
00:45:42,080 --> 00:45:44,600
Speaker 3: it's already down to minus one sixty. Where are you

909
00:45:44,680 --> 00:45:46,239
Speaker 3: projecting his receptions?

910
00:45:46,640 --> 00:45:49,160
Speaker 1: Three point nine? Three point nine? I got him about

911
00:45:49,200 --> 00:45:51,640
Speaker 1: three point nine for fifty one receiving yards.

912
00:45:51,760 --> 00:45:53,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, or are you projecting him?

913
00:45:54,000 --> 00:45:56,279
Speaker 3: I would saying, like when I wrote it up, I

914
00:45:57,040 --> 00:46:00,680
Speaker 3: just projected him at like Max's capacity, and I still

915
00:46:00,719 --> 00:46:03,920
Speaker 3: had it, you know, around four point two. But like

916
00:46:03,960 --> 00:46:06,560
Speaker 3: you said, there's a chance that he's you know, only

917
00:46:06,560 --> 00:46:09,520
Speaker 3: out there for seventy percent of the dropbacks, you know,

918
00:46:09,840 --> 00:46:14,600
Speaker 3: And like you said, like he's typically you know, getting

919
00:46:14,680 --> 00:46:17,719
Speaker 3: targets you know, in the end zone or downfield, like

920
00:46:17,920 --> 00:46:23,120
Speaker 3: very high leverage targets where every time he catches the ball,

921
00:46:23,640 --> 00:46:28,759
Speaker 3: it's usually propelling the Rams into a more leading run

922
00:46:28,800 --> 00:46:32,560
Speaker 3: heavy game script. So like it's like almost every time

923
00:46:32,600 --> 00:46:34,920
Speaker 3: he catches the pass, it kind of hurts his rest

924
00:46:34,960 --> 00:46:40,080
Speaker 3: of game projection because it's so you know, it adds

925
00:46:40,080 --> 00:46:42,880
Speaker 3: to their win probably so much. So yeah, I'm not

926
00:46:42,920 --> 00:46:46,799
Speaker 3: expecting them to like dial up screen passes to DeVante

927
00:46:46,880 --> 00:46:50,080
Speaker 3: against the Panthers coming off the Handswering injury. So I

928
00:46:50,080 --> 00:46:52,880
Speaker 3: think if he does get like four catches, he's probably

929
00:46:53,280 --> 00:46:55,919
Speaker 3: you know, scoring a touchdown or getting a downfield pass.

930
00:46:56,000 --> 00:46:59,680
Speaker 3: So I felt like his receptions prop was safer, whereas

931
00:46:59,719 --> 00:47:01,600
Speaker 3: you know, his yards you can kind of go either way.

932
00:47:03,120 --> 00:47:05,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, yeah, I think both of them probably

933
00:47:06,239 --> 00:47:08,920
Speaker 1: pretty good bets because uh have receptions.

934
00:47:09,120 --> 00:47:09,839
Speaker 2: He's I just.

935
00:47:09,760 --> 00:47:13,279
Speaker 1: Don't think they're gonna really use him, you know, to

936
00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:16,080
Speaker 1: that full capacity yet in this game as a ten

937
00:47:16,120 --> 00:47:16,680
Speaker 1: point favorite.

938
00:47:16,680 --> 00:47:18,080
Speaker 2: I mean they so I have him.

939
00:47:18,160 --> 00:47:20,680
Speaker 1: I'm about eighty percent routes run his his media is

940
00:47:20,760 --> 00:47:23,160
Speaker 1: about eighty eight, but his and his average about eighty three.

941
00:47:23,239 --> 00:47:25,960
Speaker 1: So you know he's still questionable. So just kind of

942
00:47:26,040 --> 00:47:28,680
Speaker 1: knocking a little bit of it off. And because with

943
00:47:28,719 --> 00:47:32,120
Speaker 1: the with the with more of that one three personnel,

944
00:47:32,360 --> 00:47:34,799
Speaker 1: also that he can move snaps and you know there's

945
00:47:34,800 --> 00:47:38,560
Speaker 1: a more downside risk in that single receiver, uh, in

946
00:47:38,600 --> 00:47:40,880
Speaker 1: those single receiver sets to not be that single receivers,

947
00:47:41,040 --> 00:47:42,279
Speaker 1: especially if it's not in the red zone.

948
00:47:42,320 --> 00:47:45,960
Speaker 3: So yeah, yeah, and Higbee Higgbe's back, and you know

949
00:47:46,000 --> 00:47:47,440
Speaker 3: ferguson miss last week.

950
00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:49,280
Speaker 4: Assuming he's back.

951
00:47:49,120 --> 00:47:52,080
Speaker 3: You know, they might have all four tight ends ready

952
00:47:52,120 --> 00:47:55,400
Speaker 3: to rock, so we might you know, see them mixing

953
00:47:55,680 --> 00:47:58,480
Speaker 3: you know a ton obviously. Uh So, just yeah, a

954
00:47:58,520 --> 00:48:00,759
Speaker 3: lot of downside and then it's always nice, you know,

955
00:48:00,800 --> 00:48:02,839
Speaker 3: having the under on a reception prop like that and

956
00:48:02,960 --> 00:48:06,759
Speaker 3: just watching Puoka, you know, get fifteen targets anytime he

957
00:48:06,840 --> 00:48:10,200
Speaker 3: throws it to Puka. That's you know a non target

958
00:48:10,200 --> 00:48:10,840
Speaker 3: for DeVante.

959
00:48:12,200 --> 00:48:13,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, this is there's a lot of ways for

960
00:48:13,840 --> 00:48:14,200
Speaker 2: that to go on.

961
00:48:14,400 --> 00:48:18,279
Speaker 1: I think I think catches and yards both because it's

962
00:48:18,320 --> 00:48:22,040
Speaker 1: just it's just why why kind of stretch him in

963
00:48:22,120 --> 00:48:24,239
Speaker 1: this in this spot. I mean, maybe you get into

964
00:48:24,239 --> 00:48:27,640
Speaker 1: a pickle with like you know they did it was

965
00:48:27,719 --> 00:48:29,879
Speaker 1: they did loose to the pantss already. But I think

966
00:48:29,880 --> 00:48:34,200
Speaker 1: that's still like a lower probability outcome there, all right,

967
00:48:34,600 --> 00:48:35,080
Speaker 1: tight end?

968
00:48:35,280 --> 00:48:36,680
Speaker 2: Who we got top five?

969
00:48:37,800 --> 00:48:42,480
Speaker 3: George Kittle, Hunter, Henry Dallas, Goddar, Colson Lovelin, and Dalton Schultz.

970
00:48:42,760 --> 00:48:48,839
Speaker 1: I think that's yeah, Kittle, Goddard, oh no, Kiddle, god Art, uh,

971
00:48:49,760 --> 00:48:52,480
Speaker 1: Henry Schultz and Aronde Gadson.

972
00:48:53,280 --> 00:48:57,239
Speaker 2: But yeah, I did knock down love one a little bit,

973
00:48:57,360 --> 00:48:58,960
Speaker 2: just you know, because it looks like a Dunjay is

974
00:48:58,960 --> 00:49:01,120
Speaker 2: going to be back well, was not gonna get probably

975
00:49:01,160 --> 00:49:03,520
Speaker 2: like an eight route rate.

976
00:49:03,640 --> 00:49:07,680
Speaker 1: So yeah, Ronde's kind of back back up back up here.

977
00:49:07,920 --> 00:49:14,000
Speaker 1: Nice but yeah, obviously low floor projection, but miss miss

978
00:49:14,040 --> 00:49:15,600
Speaker 1: when that middle part of the year when he was

979
00:49:15,640 --> 00:49:22,560
Speaker 1: just going those the best. Yeah, I think Joel went down.

980
00:49:22,640 --> 00:49:26,760
Speaker 4: I think the downfall happened so that that could make sense, right.

981
00:49:27,440 --> 00:49:29,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I just think in this match, I mean,

982
00:49:29,320 --> 00:49:31,640
Speaker 1: the Patriots are kind of a pass funnel.

983
00:49:31,280 --> 00:49:34,040
Speaker 2: You know. They their run defense has been better.

984
00:49:34,360 --> 00:49:37,120
Speaker 1: Uh, this is you know, they rested guys like Herbert's

985
00:49:37,160 --> 00:49:40,200
Speaker 1: probably gonna be throwing it all over the place, so uh,

986
00:49:41,320 --> 00:49:42,360
Speaker 1: cautiously optimistic.

987
00:49:42,880 --> 00:49:44,839
Speaker 2: But who are you high on at tight end?

988
00:49:45,600 --> 00:49:48,400
Speaker 4: Yeah? I'm Highland Tyler Higbee. You know I was.

989
00:49:48,440 --> 00:49:50,759
Speaker 3: I was a bit surprised he returned last week and

990
00:49:51,360 --> 00:49:55,040
Speaker 3: what was kind of a meaningless game for them, just

991
00:49:55,040 --> 00:49:57,120
Speaker 3: because you know, he had missed six straight games dude

992
00:49:57,160 --> 00:50:00,000
Speaker 3: an ankle injury, so I thought he'd be a limited

993
00:50:00,239 --> 00:50:03,400
Speaker 3: But he was out there for sixty two of the

994
00:50:03,480 --> 00:50:06,560
Speaker 3: dropbacks and went off you know, five catches ninety one

995
00:50:06,640 --> 00:50:09,880
Speaker 3: yards and a touchdown. So he could see more playing

996
00:50:09,880 --> 00:50:12,759
Speaker 3: time this week, assuming he was eased back at least

997
00:50:12,800 --> 00:50:16,440
Speaker 3: somewhat last week. But again I mentioned, you know Ferguson

998
00:50:16,560 --> 00:50:18,879
Speaker 3: was out who could return this week. So this tight

999
00:50:18,960 --> 00:50:21,799
Speaker 3: end room is going to be pretty murky in terms

1000
00:50:21,840 --> 00:50:26,080
Speaker 3: of like projecting it. Plus you know Davante's back. But

1001
00:50:26,200 --> 00:50:28,120
Speaker 3: this is this is a good matchup for Higbee and

1002
00:50:28,200 --> 00:50:30,840
Speaker 3: just all the Rams tight ends really because you know,

1003
00:50:30,880 --> 00:50:35,440
Speaker 3: the Panthers ranked thirtieth in DVA against tight ends. Plus

1004
00:50:35,480 --> 00:50:37,319
Speaker 3: you know they used cover three a ton at a

1005
00:50:37,360 --> 00:50:40,640
Speaker 3: top three rate, and Higbee's yards per run actually goes

1006
00:50:40,719 --> 00:50:44,640
Speaker 3: up about a half yard against cover three, So just

1007
00:50:44,640 --> 00:50:46,359
Speaker 3: a really good spot for him. I don't know if

1008
00:50:46,360 --> 00:50:48,680
Speaker 3: it means I'm going to be like on the overs

1009
00:50:48,719 --> 00:50:51,080
Speaker 3: on his props. I think, you know, the Rams will

1010
00:50:51,080 --> 00:50:53,880
Speaker 3: probably get away with a pretty you know, run heavy

1011
00:50:53,880 --> 00:50:54,600
Speaker 3: game plan here.

1012
00:50:54,640 --> 00:50:56,200
Speaker 4: But it's good to see.

1013
00:50:56,040 --> 00:50:59,719
Speaker 3: Higby back, and I think in theory, I think McVeigh

1014
00:50:59,760 --> 00:51:02,960
Speaker 3: won him to be the lead tight end, and McVeigh

1015
00:51:03,200 --> 00:51:06,040
Speaker 3: typically doesn't, you know, like leaning on rookies, so I think,

1016
00:51:06,120 --> 00:51:09,759
Speaker 3: you know, Ferguson could see his routes run rate drop

1017
00:51:09,800 --> 00:51:13,000
Speaker 3: off quite a bit. But I think Higbee heading into

1018
00:51:13,000 --> 00:51:15,600
Speaker 3: the playoffs, we've seen times where he's he looks like

1019
00:51:15,600 --> 00:51:17,480
Speaker 3: one of the best tight ends in the league, so

1020
00:51:18,040 --> 00:51:20,759
Speaker 3: he could have a good stretcher on here now that

1021
00:51:20,840 --> 00:51:23,560
Speaker 3: he's healthy. Plus just with the way the Rams are

1022
00:51:23,640 --> 00:51:26,640
Speaker 3: using tight ends, So I'm high on Higby this week.

1023
00:51:26,719 --> 00:51:29,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely. Remember that was it last It was last year.

1024
00:51:29,719 --> 00:51:31,560
Speaker 1: The same thing happened, right, he came back right before

1025
00:51:31,600 --> 00:51:33,680
Speaker 1: the playoffs and then he was just going crazy.

1026
00:51:33,719 --> 00:51:35,360
Speaker 2: But then he got like that punctured longer.

1027
00:51:35,719 --> 00:51:38,160
Speaker 1: Something happened in that Vikings game and he was on

1028
00:51:38,200 --> 00:51:41,960
Speaker 1: pace for like a crazy, crazy game in that In

1029
00:51:42,040 --> 00:51:42,880
Speaker 1: that game.

1030
00:51:43,360 --> 00:51:45,719
Speaker 3: It seems like every year he has like a crazy

1031
00:51:45,880 --> 00:51:48,200
Speaker 3: five game stretch yep.

1032
00:51:48,280 --> 00:51:51,080
Speaker 2: And then yeah, ever since that breakout, right, yeah.

1033
00:51:50,920 --> 00:51:54,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, it was like I remember, like we were doing

1034
00:51:54,400 --> 00:51:58,239
Speaker 3: the flex of Friedman. It was that long ago. But yeah,

1035
00:51:58,239 --> 00:52:01,920
Speaker 3: what was it twenty twenty one, I don't remember, but

1036
00:52:02,000 --> 00:52:04,799
Speaker 3: he had just an insane stretch where he was just

1037
00:52:04,840 --> 00:52:09,600
Speaker 3: getting eight plus catches and one hundred plus yards for like.

1038
00:52:09,600 --> 00:52:11,600
Speaker 2: Three or four games nineteen I think.

1039
00:52:13,080 --> 00:52:16,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, my god, career high seven seven hundred and thirty

1040
00:52:16,840 --> 00:52:17,720
Speaker 1: four receiving yards.

1041
00:52:17,760 --> 00:52:19,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, oh my god, look at that. Yeah, four straight

1042
00:52:19,800 --> 00:52:23,319
Speaker 3: games of one hundred plus. So anyway, yeah, we could see,

1043
00:52:23,640 --> 00:52:25,879
Speaker 3: you know, a stretch like that. Who knows heading into

1044
00:52:25,840 --> 00:52:26,760
Speaker 3: the playoffs.

1045
00:52:27,000 --> 00:52:29,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I gotta go. I gotta see what his numbers

1046
00:52:29,640 --> 00:52:31,480
Speaker 1: were against the Vikings last year. I think it was

1047
00:52:31,520 --> 00:52:37,000
Speaker 1: the Vikings, right, yeah, twenty twenty.

1048
00:52:36,760 --> 00:52:40,600
Speaker 2: Four, Yeah, oh so, yeah, it's the Vicers.

1049
00:52:40,600 --> 00:52:43,160
Speaker 1: He had like five catches on five targets for fifty

1050
00:52:43,160 --> 00:52:47,279
Speaker 1: eight yards in like well a quarter and a half

1051
00:52:47,360 --> 00:52:51,360
Speaker 1: or something something like that, and then the next week

1052
00:52:51,760 --> 00:52:55,360
Speaker 1: against the Eagles, ten targets, seven catches, fifty four yards

1053
00:52:55,360 --> 00:52:56,040
Speaker 1: and a touchdown.

1054
00:52:57,000 --> 00:53:00,200
Speaker 2: So he yeah six catches, Yeah.

1055
00:53:00,040 --> 00:53:04,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, fifteen weeks with the ACL right, yep, something like that.

1056
00:53:04,120 --> 00:53:06,960
Speaker 3: And I remember mc veigh was just constantly being pissed

1057
00:53:07,000 --> 00:53:10,600
Speaker 3: off at Parkinson and then Allen, like he just didn't

1058
00:53:10,680 --> 00:53:13,360
Speaker 3: like them. Last year. He was waiting for higby A

1059
00:53:13,400 --> 00:53:16,160
Speaker 3: to return. So, you know, Parkinson's been a lot better

1060
00:53:16,200 --> 00:53:19,360
Speaker 3: this year. But I always think McVeigh considers Higbee, you know,

1061
00:53:19,440 --> 00:53:22,400
Speaker 3: his guy in the lead tight end when everyone's healthy.

1062
00:53:23,280 --> 00:53:25,239
Speaker 2: Yep, And did did the same exact thing last year

1063
00:53:25,239 --> 00:53:26,439
Speaker 2: to last year too.

1064
00:53:26,719 --> 00:53:29,480
Speaker 1: In the Week eighteen game he had like he didn't

1065
00:53:29,480 --> 00:53:32,240
Speaker 1: really need to play, but he had five for forty

1066
00:53:32,239 --> 00:53:34,800
Speaker 1: six in a touchdown, a seven targets and then proceeded

1067
00:53:34,840 --> 00:53:36,960
Speaker 1: to never catch fewer than five balls in the playoffs

1068
00:53:36,960 --> 00:53:42,000
Speaker 1: gap so yep, right on the schedule, Yeah exactly.

1069
00:53:43,080 --> 00:53:48,480
Speaker 2: Uh. I am high on Dog Kincaid.

1070
00:53:48,760 --> 00:53:52,040
Speaker 1: So this is he's interesting because I feel like he

1071
00:53:52,200 --> 00:53:55,120
Speaker 1: just goes missing at times, like he just gets rude

1072
00:53:55,200 --> 00:53:57,719
Speaker 1: out and always on the injury report these days. But

1073
00:53:58,560 --> 00:54:01,560
Speaker 1: I think you know, the bills, you know, holding him out.

1074
00:54:02,120 --> 00:54:03,640
Speaker 1: You know, a bunch of games down the stretch, he

1075
00:54:03,680 --> 00:54:06,759
Speaker 1: probably was working through something. And then the fact that

1076
00:54:06,800 --> 00:54:09,239
Speaker 1: they you know, got him some work in that Week

1077
00:54:09,239 --> 00:54:12,080
Speaker 1: eighteen game in the first quarter tells me that they,

1078
00:54:12,160 --> 00:54:14,279
Speaker 1: you know, they they're looking for him to be an

1079
00:54:14,320 --> 00:54:16,399
Speaker 1: important part of that offense because remember they were wide

1080
00:54:16,440 --> 00:54:19,839
Speaker 1: receivers not really that reliable, and this is could be

1081
00:54:19,880 --> 00:54:22,440
Speaker 1: like a rare neutral to negative.

1082
00:54:22,040 --> 00:54:23,400
Speaker 2: Game script for the Bills.

1083
00:54:23,440 --> 00:54:26,399
Speaker 1: So I think in Kaid, you know, being healthy here,

1084
00:54:26,440 --> 00:54:30,640
Speaker 1: going up against this very zone heavy Jacksonville Jaguar defense,

1085
00:54:31,280 --> 00:54:33,120
Speaker 1: he's gonna be very involved. I think he's gonna be

1086
00:54:33,120 --> 00:54:35,480
Speaker 1: targeted at a high rate when he's on the field,

1087
00:54:35,680 --> 00:54:37,120
Speaker 1: and I think he will be on the field a

1088
00:54:37,160 --> 00:54:39,160
Speaker 1: little bit more than he has because he's been every

1089
00:54:39,160 --> 00:54:41,600
Speaker 1: other game he's either gotten hurt or they've been kind

1090
00:54:41,600 --> 00:54:45,400
Speaker 1: of just trying to, you know, limit his usage and whatnot.

1091
00:54:45,520 --> 00:54:47,880
Speaker 1: So you can see like him return to that sixty

1092
00:54:47,880 --> 00:54:51,120
Speaker 1: percent plus route rate in this game that I'm still

1093
00:54:51,120 --> 00:54:54,200
Speaker 1: projecting in around like fifty five like his usual, but

1094
00:54:54,680 --> 00:54:57,799
Speaker 1: I think there is some upside there. And then you know,

1095
00:54:57,840 --> 00:55:01,440
Speaker 1: this Jaguar defense gives just a ton of volume to

1096
00:55:02,040 --> 00:55:05,400
Speaker 1: tight end. If you look at the schedule adjusted numbers,

1097
00:55:05,719 --> 00:55:09,759
Speaker 1: FTN has the targets at eight point two, that's tied

1098
00:55:09,800 --> 00:55:12,680
Speaker 1: for six most in the league. And you know, if

1099
00:55:12,719 --> 00:55:15,160
Speaker 1: you look at you know, some of their other positions,

1100
00:55:15,320 --> 00:55:17,279
Speaker 1: it's really you know, you can go to your number

1101
00:55:17,280 --> 00:55:19,680
Speaker 1: one receiver and you can go to your tight end

1102
00:55:19,680 --> 00:55:23,160
Speaker 1: against Jacksonville, which is generally true against zone coverages. So

1103
00:55:24,080 --> 00:55:26,560
Speaker 1: I expect a lot of Shakir, a lot of Kincaid

1104
00:55:27,160 --> 00:55:30,440
Speaker 1: for the Bills in this matchup.

1105
00:55:30,520 --> 00:55:32,200
Speaker 2: So like like Kinkaid here.

1106
00:55:32,520 --> 00:55:35,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's kind of like Tyler Higbee of the East

1107
00:55:35,200 --> 00:55:37,160
Speaker 3: right where he goes through stretches where he kind of

1108
00:55:37,160 --> 00:55:40,080
Speaker 3: forget he exists, and then other times it's like he's

1109
00:55:40,120 --> 00:55:41,160
Speaker 3: like the best tight in the league.

1110
00:55:41,160 --> 00:55:42,400
Speaker 4: Why doesn't he do this every week?

1111
00:55:43,080 --> 00:55:44,440
Speaker 3: But yeah, I was going to ask you about him

1112
00:55:44,480 --> 00:55:48,360
Speaker 3: because yeah, I have tight end six, but I have

1113
00:55:48,440 --> 00:55:51,280
Speaker 3: his rots run rate around fifty, but it could easily

1114
00:55:51,320 --> 00:55:54,360
Speaker 3: be sixty percent or higher. I mean it is you know,

1115
00:55:54,440 --> 00:55:57,920
Speaker 3: the playoffs. So with him, he sees you know, very

1116
00:55:57,960 --> 00:56:01,879
Speaker 3: high target rates. So if he sees any in playing time,

1117
00:56:02,000 --> 00:56:03,880
Speaker 3: it just really raises his ceiling.

1118
00:56:04,840 --> 00:56:09,480
Speaker 1: And if you look at the just like the Bills record,

1119
00:56:09,520 --> 00:56:12,239
Speaker 1: I believe with him in there this season, like they've won.

1120
00:56:13,200 --> 00:56:17,239
Speaker 1: I want to say like almost they are. Yeah, they

1121
00:56:17,280 --> 00:56:20,800
Speaker 1: are ten and two in the games that he's played,

1122
00:56:20,920 --> 00:56:24,960
Speaker 1: which is even better than their record on the season overall.

1123
00:56:25,040 --> 00:56:27,840
Speaker 1: So like they've been in a lot of positive game scripts.

1124
00:56:27,880 --> 00:56:30,640
Speaker 1: So like his kind of got to adjust that. Now

1125
00:56:30,640 --> 00:56:33,840
Speaker 1: you're a one in a half point favorite against Jacksonville,

1126
00:56:33,880 --> 00:56:36,200
Speaker 1: you're on the road Jacksonville. We know they could score,

1127
00:56:36,280 --> 00:56:38,520
Speaker 1: so you might see more third downs, just more passing downs,

1128
00:56:38,560 --> 00:56:41,799
Speaker 1: more two minutes, all that stuff. Then you've really seen

1129
00:56:41,840 --> 00:56:47,560
Speaker 1: all season for can Cancer. Yeah, like him, who are

1130
00:56:47,600 --> 00:56:48,320
Speaker 1: you alone?

1131
00:56:49,040 --> 00:56:52,520
Speaker 3: I'm low on Pat Fryarmouth, who I was actually really

1132
00:56:52,600 --> 00:56:56,759
Speaker 3: high on last week because Darnell Washington's on IR So

1133
00:56:56,840 --> 00:57:00,000
Speaker 3: I'm very high on Friarmuth's playing time. Like I haven't

1134
00:57:00,080 --> 00:57:04,319
Speaker 3: rejected right around a seventy routes run rate. I mean

1135
00:57:04,320 --> 00:57:06,960
Speaker 3: he is operating, is the clear lead tight end now.

1136
00:57:07,760 --> 00:57:11,400
Speaker 3: But with Metcalf out last week, I had his target

1137
00:57:11,480 --> 00:57:15,880
Speaker 3: rate being way higher. But with Metcalf back this week, uh,

1138
00:57:16,240 --> 00:57:18,320
Speaker 3: you know his target rate's gonna get dinged a bit.

1139
00:57:19,520 --> 00:57:22,720
Speaker 3: Plus you know Rogers is dumping off to the running

1140
00:57:22,760 --> 00:57:24,680
Speaker 3: backs at a high rate. I could see that continuing

1141
00:57:24,720 --> 00:57:28,600
Speaker 3: here against the Texans. But Texans defense is good against everybody.

1142
00:57:28,680 --> 00:57:32,560
Speaker 3: They they also ranked second in DBA against tight ends,

1143
00:57:32,640 --> 00:57:35,920
Speaker 3: so I mean this whole you know, Steelers offense has

1144
00:57:35,960 --> 00:57:36,960
Speaker 3: a brutal matchup.

1145
00:57:37,000 --> 00:57:38,280
Speaker 4: I know you're low on DK.

1146
00:57:39,720 --> 00:57:42,000
Speaker 3: So yeah, of all the matchups this week, you know

1147
00:57:42,040 --> 00:57:44,640
Speaker 3: the Steelers have the toughest one. So a bit lower

1148
00:57:44,680 --> 00:57:49,440
Speaker 3: on Firemouth despite you know, his usage being around its peak.

1149
00:57:49,280 --> 00:57:50,800
Speaker 4: Right now, I have him all the way down to

1150
00:57:50,840 --> 00:57:52,320
Speaker 4: tight end eight this week.

1151
00:57:53,840 --> 00:57:57,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's that's where I have him as well.

1152
00:57:57,360 --> 00:58:00,600
Speaker 1: It's just you never know what's the Steelers They Jona

1153
00:58:00,640 --> 00:58:02,960
Speaker 1: Smith could come out and be seventy five percent and

1154
00:58:03,040 --> 00:58:04,560
Speaker 1: prior moves could dip back down again.

1155
00:58:04,800 --> 00:58:08,640
Speaker 2: True this week, like you just never truly truly not.

1156
00:58:11,000 --> 00:58:12,760
Speaker 2: I am low on.

1157
00:58:15,760 --> 00:58:21,000
Speaker 1: Luke Musgrave. I just don't know what I'm getting from him.

1158
00:58:21,240 --> 00:58:23,600
Speaker 1: It's kind of I mean, it's kind of. It's not

1159
00:58:24,000 --> 00:58:26,880
Speaker 1: it's greater than the extent of Jacobs because like Jacob's

1160
00:58:26,960 --> 00:58:28,720
Speaker 1: is like, all right, I wish we have a history,

1161
00:58:28,720 --> 00:58:33,000
Speaker 1: but Musgrave never really truly took command of that lead

1162
00:58:33,400 --> 00:58:37,600
Speaker 1: tight end role. So you know, now it's we expect that,

1163
00:58:37,840 --> 00:58:39,600
Speaker 1: but you know, will it actually happen?

1164
00:58:39,720 --> 00:58:40,200
Speaker 2: Who knows?

1165
00:58:40,240 --> 00:58:41,960
Speaker 1: I mean his route Ray has been anywhere from like

1166
00:58:42,000 --> 00:58:44,120
Speaker 1: eighty five to thirty percent.

1167
00:58:44,160 --> 00:58:48,360
Speaker 2: In meaningful games. And the Bears.

1168
00:58:48,000 --> 00:58:50,840
Speaker 1: You know they do they will play you know, decent

1169
00:58:50,880 --> 00:58:53,440
Speaker 1: bit of man coverage, so you know that it's not

1170
00:58:53,600 --> 00:58:58,360
Speaker 1: great for tight ends. They are top ten in DVOA

1171
00:58:58,400 --> 00:59:01,960
Speaker 1: against tight ends are the Chicago Bears, which compared to

1172
00:59:02,320 --> 00:59:05,840
Speaker 1: you know, receivers and running back, that's essentially their best

1173
00:59:05,880 --> 00:59:10,160
Speaker 1: position at defending. So Luke Musgrave, I know, you know,

1174
00:59:10,680 --> 00:59:13,919
Speaker 1: probably be tempting we tight end, We like Jordan Love

1175
00:59:14,320 --> 00:59:17,120
Speaker 1: to kind of exceed expectation here, but I just really

1176
00:59:17,120 --> 00:59:18,600
Speaker 1: don't know what I'm getting out of musk Grave. I

1177
00:59:18,600 --> 00:59:21,400
Speaker 1: could see why Ley end up kind of coming close

1178
00:59:21,480 --> 00:59:23,800
Speaker 1: in the route rate you got, you know, you just

1179
00:59:23,640 --> 00:59:26,080
Speaker 1: you just never know, And I just think there's too

1180
00:59:26,160 --> 00:59:29,320
Speaker 1: much uncertainty with you know, a pretty decent tight ends. Wait,

1181
00:59:29,360 --> 00:59:31,560
Speaker 1: you know, even if you knock like Lovelin down and

1182
00:59:31,680 --> 00:59:34,200
Speaker 1: his routes like, he's still I mean, he's still there.

1183
00:59:34,200 --> 00:59:37,160
Speaker 1: He's still got Brenton Strange. So yeah, I don't know

1184
00:59:37,200 --> 00:59:39,480
Speaker 1: what to do with Musgrave. He's my tight end eleven

1185
00:59:39,720 --> 00:59:40,240
Speaker 1: this week.

1186
00:59:40,760 --> 00:59:43,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, So yeah, I was showing value on both his

1187
00:59:44,160 --> 00:59:47,439
Speaker 3: reception and receiving yards under. Uh, do you have any

1188
00:59:47,480 --> 00:59:50,360
Speaker 3: preference on those markets because they're they're offering two and

1189
00:59:50,400 --> 00:59:53,880
Speaker 3: a half receptions, like a hard two and a half.

1190
00:59:53,920 --> 00:59:56,560
Speaker 3: It's not like unders minus one forty or something like that,

1191
00:59:56,840 --> 00:59:59,920
Speaker 3: it's minus want to wait for under that his receiver

1192
01:00:00,040 --> 01:00:05,400
Speaker 3: the yards prop is twenty three and a half. But yeah,

1193
01:00:05,440 --> 01:00:10,320
Speaker 3: I like, I'm projecting for a fifty two routes run rate,

1194
01:00:10,480 --> 01:00:13,080
Speaker 3: but I think it could be lower. I'm trying to

1195
01:00:13,080 --> 01:00:15,080
Speaker 3: figure out. I need to go dive in to see

1196
01:00:15,120 --> 01:00:18,680
Speaker 3: what was up, you know, week seventeen, but I think

1197
01:00:18,680 --> 01:00:20,120
Speaker 3: he has a very low floor here.

1198
01:00:20,760 --> 01:00:22,520
Speaker 1: What was up was they got blown out by Tyrol

1199
01:00:22,600 --> 01:00:25,439
Speaker 1: Hugley and then all the starters came out of the game.

1200
01:00:25,520 --> 01:00:29,240
Speaker 3: But yeah, and then week yeah, and the week sixteen

1201
01:00:29,800 --> 01:00:33,320
Speaker 3: he had an eighty four percent route rate. I believe

1202
01:00:33,480 --> 01:00:37,720
Speaker 3: Wiley was out, Fitzpatrick was active, and Fitzpatrick just got

1203
01:00:37,800 --> 01:00:40,720
Speaker 3: hurt right away, so they didn't have they didn't even

1204
01:00:40,720 --> 01:00:43,720
Speaker 3: have Dabney in there. So I think just Musgrave just

1205
01:00:44,800 --> 01:00:47,360
Speaker 3: was the only tight end standing, right, That's why he

1206
01:00:47,400 --> 01:00:48,400
Speaker 3: got the eighty four percent.

1207
01:00:49,560 --> 01:00:50,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I have him.

1208
01:00:50,560 --> 01:00:52,400
Speaker 1: I have him at sixty percent, so I'm not ten

1209
01:00:52,400 --> 01:00:54,560
Speaker 1: percent higher than eight to ten percent higher than me,

1210
01:00:54,640 --> 01:00:58,360
Speaker 1: and I still have him well under that twenty three

1211
01:00:58,400 --> 01:00:59,800
Speaker 1: and a half, Like I don't even have an average

1212
01:00:59,840 --> 01:01:02,960
Speaker 1: two three, much less as median, and then I have

1213
01:01:03,120 --> 01:01:09,520
Speaker 1: his right, Yeah, his receptions at like two point four.

1214
01:01:08,840 --> 01:01:10,360
Speaker 2: So that's still a median of two.

1215
01:01:10,920 --> 01:01:13,280
Speaker 1: So yeah, I would, I would go under both, but

1216
01:01:13,320 --> 01:01:15,520
Speaker 1: I would I think I would rather the receptions because yeah,

1217
01:01:15,840 --> 01:01:18,680
Speaker 1: the Bears, you know, defense that would play man coverage.

1218
01:01:19,440 --> 01:01:21,560
Speaker 1: The Packers, I've been known to go super run heavy

1219
01:01:21,560 --> 01:01:23,840
Speaker 1: at times in the playoffs, So there's a lot of

1220
01:01:23,840 --> 01:01:27,040
Speaker 1: ways that you could. And then of course, you know,

1221
01:01:27,240 --> 01:01:30,000
Speaker 1: like you said, why we or just musk Grave just

1222
01:01:30,120 --> 01:01:32,720
Speaker 1: you know, not being like being the last read on

1223
01:01:32,760 --> 01:01:33,440
Speaker 1: the play, just.

1224
01:01:33,560 --> 01:01:36,480
Speaker 2: So many way, so many outs from Yeah.

1225
01:01:36,360 --> 01:01:39,640
Speaker 4: Top three receivers are healthy. Uh yep, which is rare.

1226
01:01:40,160 --> 01:01:42,160
Speaker 3: There's only been like four games where the top three

1227
01:01:42,200 --> 01:01:44,160
Speaker 3: receivers have been healthy.

1228
01:01:44,280 --> 01:01:46,360
Speaker 4: So yeah, a lot a lot to not like about

1229
01:01:46,440 --> 01:01:46,880
Speaker 4: musk Grave.

1230
01:01:47,440 --> 01:01:49,600
Speaker 2: I mean, it's only Tuesday. We'll see, we'll see, can

1231
01:01:49,600 --> 01:01:50,200
Speaker 2: I make it?

1232
01:01:50,800 --> 01:01:51,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly.

1233
01:01:51,880 --> 01:01:53,480
Speaker 3: You know, it's it's two in the week to be

1234
01:01:53,560 --> 01:01:56,280
Speaker 3: locking props. And I had to do that with Adams

1235
01:01:56,320 --> 01:02:00,280
Speaker 3: because I thought, you know, that'd get steamed down. But yeah,

1236
01:02:00,280 --> 01:02:02,800
Speaker 3: I like to dive in a little bit more than I.

1237
01:02:02,680 --> 01:02:06,520
Speaker 2: Have spent having healthy receivers.

1238
01:02:07,200 --> 01:02:16,280
Speaker 5: Yeah, they which is still banged around and Dobbs can

1239
01:02:16,280 --> 01:02:18,680
Speaker 5: tweak something on Thursday, right.

1240
01:02:19,800 --> 01:02:23,320
Speaker 1: Watson Watts Watson tweaks, seem to tweaks something every week.

1241
01:02:23,920 --> 01:02:26,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, read what games?

1242
01:02:26,440 --> 01:02:28,479
Speaker 3: Didn't he have something to make his left hand string,

1243
01:02:29,160 --> 01:02:31,560
Speaker 3: you know, not as big as his right or something.

1244
01:02:31,600 --> 01:02:33,480
Speaker 3: He had something where they weren't symmetrical.

1245
01:02:34,200 --> 01:02:38,520
Speaker 1: And then he had a c O right, No, was

1246
01:02:38,520 --> 01:02:40,080
Speaker 1: that post a c O twos?

1247
01:02:41,040 --> 01:02:43,520
Speaker 4: That was last year? Last year he was coming back

1248
01:02:43,560 --> 01:02:45,840
Speaker 4: from a c L. Right, he's always.

1249
01:02:45,640 --> 01:02:48,680
Speaker 2: Coming back from a CL. He's coming back from a

1250
01:02:48,760 --> 01:02:49,560
Speaker 2: CL this year too.

1251
01:02:50,480 --> 01:02:51,120
Speaker 4: Oh that's right.

1252
01:02:51,200 --> 01:02:53,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, but he had you know, he was coming back

1253
01:02:53,320 --> 01:02:56,000
Speaker 3: from a hamsering injury and then he said I figured

1254
01:02:56,000 --> 01:02:58,919
Speaker 3: out how to fix that. He had like his left

1255
01:02:58,920 --> 01:03:01,800
Speaker 3: handswerring was bigger than and then he tours ACL.

1256
01:03:01,800 --> 01:03:02,920
Speaker 4: I don't think those are related.

1257
01:03:03,000 --> 01:03:05,440
Speaker 3: But anytime you're like tweaking them with things, you know,

1258
01:03:05,560 --> 01:03:07,360
Speaker 3: you set yourself up to get hurt.

1259
01:03:07,360 --> 01:03:08,360
Speaker 4: But yeah, he's always hurt.

1260
01:03:08,840 --> 01:03:11,600
Speaker 1: Moral of the story, Oh no, last year, I think

1261
01:03:11,640 --> 01:03:15,360
Speaker 1: you know what happened was they he was held out

1262
01:03:15,520 --> 01:03:19,280
Speaker 1: in Week seventeen, and then they had a meetingless Week

1263
01:03:19,320 --> 01:03:23,080
Speaker 1: eighteen game against the Bears, and then they played him

1264
01:03:23,320 --> 01:03:26,080
Speaker 1: and he tours a cl and then the next week

1265
01:03:26,360 --> 01:03:30,640
Speaker 1: they go to Philly and all their other receivers get hurt.

1266
01:03:31,360 --> 01:03:33,640
Speaker 1: They they got him hurt for and Love got hurt

1267
01:03:33,680 --> 01:03:35,400
Speaker 1: too in that in that Bear game last year.

1268
01:03:35,560 --> 01:03:36,960
Speaker 2: But he played against Philly.

1269
01:03:37,000 --> 01:03:39,520
Speaker 3: But yeah, yeah, it makes sense they would just rest

1270
01:03:39,560 --> 01:03:41,040
Speaker 3: everybody this week.

1271
01:03:41,240 --> 01:03:45,680
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, yeah, they're not playing no games. Tight end

1272
01:03:45,920 --> 01:03:47,400
Speaker 2: prop Let's.

1273
01:03:47,120 --> 01:03:53,600
Speaker 4: See we that tight end right? Like hitters are out

1274
01:03:53,600 --> 01:03:54,360
Speaker 4: of the playoffs.

1275
01:03:55,800 --> 01:03:59,880
Speaker 1: I'm thinking it's gotta be a RAMS one somehow.

1276
01:04:00,040 --> 01:04:01,400
Speaker 2: I'm gonna see what I want to do.

1277
01:04:01,480 --> 01:04:04,920
Speaker 1: Good luck with that, yeah, because that's definitely the hardest

1278
01:04:04,920 --> 01:04:06,640
Speaker 1: one to project right now.

1279
01:04:06,640 --> 01:04:07,120
Speaker 2: At least.

1280
01:04:07,360 --> 01:04:11,160
Speaker 1: The interesting thing is, uh, like Parkinson, how much of

1281
01:04:11,240 --> 01:04:14,080
Speaker 1: his role, like how much does Higby affect him in

1282
01:04:13,880 --> 01:04:15,200
Speaker 1: a meaningful game?

1283
01:04:15,880 --> 01:04:17,680
Speaker 4: Ferguson too, if he's back.

1284
01:04:18,200 --> 01:04:21,080
Speaker 1: I mean, Ferguson seemed to be like I feel like Ferguson,

1285
01:04:21,160 --> 01:04:22,880
Speaker 1: like you said he would he would probably get the

1286
01:04:23,000 --> 01:04:25,960
Speaker 1: raw end of the stick just because he's a rookie

1287
01:04:26,000 --> 01:04:28,080
Speaker 1: and he was he was already fourth until all this

1288
01:04:29,120 --> 01:04:31,360
Speaker 1: like weirdness happened and then he kind of bumped up,

1289
01:04:31,840 --> 01:04:35,360
Speaker 1: So I think, yeah, I think Higby. I think Higgby

1290
01:04:35,480 --> 01:04:36,920
Speaker 1: versus Parkinson is the hardest.

1291
01:04:37,000 --> 01:04:39,360
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna just give you. Well, I gotta make

1292
01:04:39,760 --> 01:04:40,880
Speaker 2: the favorite. I'll get.

1293
01:04:40,880 --> 01:04:44,200
Speaker 1: I'll say Higby is a favorite by half a fantasy

1294
01:04:44,240 --> 01:04:48,919
Speaker 1: point half PPR just because it's playoff Higbee. But uh, yeah,

1295
01:04:49,160 --> 01:04:52,280
Speaker 1: are you gonna Parkinson could easily catch a touchdown obviously

1296
01:04:52,320 --> 01:04:54,640
Speaker 1: and Higby might not. So yeah, i'll go. I'll go

1297
01:04:54,720 --> 01:04:59,640
Speaker 1: Higbee versus Parkinson. Hagbey the half point favorite. Yeah, I

1298
01:04:59,680 --> 01:05:06,240
Speaker 1: have a exactly a half point higher. Yeah, Parkinson's had

1299
01:05:06,520 --> 01:05:11,600
Speaker 1: a higher touchdown rate, but like you said, like Parker is, Yeah,

1300
01:05:11,760 --> 01:05:15,840
Speaker 1: Higbee went down before this, uh you know, really heavy

1301
01:05:16,800 --> 01:05:18,560
Speaker 1: tight end rotation happened, so.

1302
01:05:20,200 --> 01:05:21,400
Speaker 4: He only had four weeks with.

1303
01:05:22,000 --> 01:05:24,160
Speaker 1: They started in week seven, like that week before the

1304
01:05:24,240 --> 01:05:26,760
Speaker 1: bye in London against the Jaguars.

1305
01:05:27,480 --> 01:05:28,200
Speaker 2: But yeah, he didn't.

1306
01:05:28,320 --> 01:05:32,560
Speaker 1: It wasn't really like on on going crazy until uh

1307
01:05:32,640 --> 01:05:33,080
Speaker 1: yeah he was.

1308
01:05:33,200 --> 01:05:33,960
Speaker 2: He was out already.

1309
01:05:34,200 --> 01:05:38,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, man, this is tough. I'll take Higby, I'll take here.

1310
01:05:38,960 --> 01:05:41,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's the right side. Honestly, I was

1311
01:05:41,080 --> 01:05:44,760
Speaker 1: hoping you would take Parkinson's.

1312
01:05:43,960 --> 01:05:46,120
Speaker 4: Close close all right, that is gonna do it.

1313
01:05:46,120 --> 01:05:49,280
Speaker 1: For NFL wild Card Weekend Player Projections episode. Be sure

1314
01:05:49,280 --> 01:05:51,840
Speaker 1: to subscribe to the Fantasy Flex pots you don't miss

1315
01:05:52,040 --> 01:05:55,160
Speaker 1: an episode for the rest of the playoffs. Also, don't

1316
01:05:55,160 --> 01:05:58,000
Speaker 1: forget you can go to Fantasy Labs dot com or

1317
01:05:58,080 --> 01:05:59,920
Speaker 1: check out the Fantasy Labs at For all of our

1318
01:06:00,280 --> 01:06:03,680
Speaker 1: player projections. You can use code flex twenty for twenty

1319
01:06:03,680 --> 01:06:06,480
Speaker 1: eight hours off. Our DFS tools and models are at

1320
01:06:06,480 --> 01:06:09,320
Speaker 1: Fantasy Labs as well. Would be back my favorite touchdown

1321
01:06:09,320 --> 01:06:12,880
Speaker 1: scores over on the Action Network podcast later in the week.

1322
01:06:13,080 --> 01:06:15,400
Speaker 2: Shown is on Next at the underscarage.

1323
01:06:14,800 --> 01:06:16,920
Speaker 1: Maker Matt Chris Raybon ret Tho fame manas on the

1324
01:06:16,960 --> 01:06:19,160
Speaker 1: free award winning Actions Network app.

1325
01:06:19,360 --> 01:06:22,640
Speaker 2: So next time gris money.

1326
01:06:27,600 --> 01:06:32,120
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1327
01:06:32,120 --> 01:06:34,920
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1328
01:06:34,960 --> 01:06:38,080
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler