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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome into a Thursday

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Speaker 1: morning edition of the Daily Juice Podcast. My name is

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Speaker 1: Matt Peralt. You can follow me on Twitter at sports

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Speaker 1: Talk Matt Eat Today morning, we're here on betting pros

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Speaker 1: dot com wherever you get your audio podcast YouTube for

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Speaker 1: the video always being brought to you by bet MGM

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Speaker 1: with the offer of five dollars any team scores a touchdown.

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Speaker 1: How about tonight on on Thursday Night football five dollars

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Speaker 1: any team scored touchdown on a side total. Whatever bet

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Speaker 1: you make on the game, you win one hundred dollars

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Speaker 1: in free bets from bet MGM. We're using that promo

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Speaker 1: code Juice one hundred Juice one hundred from bet MGM. Okay,

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Speaker 1: a couple of things. One, you know where we are

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Speaker 1: for the game tonight on the over forty five and

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Speaker 1: a half at the time of taping. Let me give

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Speaker 1: you an up to date number here for what we're

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Speaker 1: looking at for the game coming up here tonight. It

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Speaker 1: was forty six and a half at the last time

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Speaker 1: I checked it. It is forty six. Come back down

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Speaker 1: just a little bit. That the DraftKings forty six and

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Speaker 1: a half at Fandril at the time of taping. Right now,

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Speaker 1: for the total, I'm at forty five and a half

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Speaker 1: on on the over, eight and one to the over.

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Speaker 1: I have seen people say that Jacksonville will not score,

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Speaker 1: and that's why the number is going to go under.

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Speaker 1: I have seen that I cannot lay the seven and

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Speaker 1: a half points. I am banking on Jacksonville to score.

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Speaker 1: I think I think the Jags are going to get

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Speaker 1: twenty points. I do, and that's my key number. I

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Speaker 1: need them to get to twenty points because I think

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Speaker 1: it's like a twenty eight to twenty twenty eight, twenty

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Speaker 1: one type of game. I think the numbers right for

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Speaker 1: a seven point line. That's why I cannot bet it.

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Speaker 1: I can't trust the Bengals. I think Jamar Chase can

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Speaker 1: have a big game. But I've got a couple of

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Speaker 1: player props I want to give you that do not have.

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Speaker 1: They are not involving Jamar Chase. Although I do think

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Speaker 1: he could be a good anytime touchdown score. I will

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Speaker 1: have a personal bet on him anytime touchdown score coming

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Speaker 1: up here tonight for the Cincinnati be at home against

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Speaker 1: the Jacksonville Jaguars. But I've got two prop bets I

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Speaker 1: want to give you, guys, and I have a basketball bet.

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Speaker 1: A basketball bet. You might go, wait, pre no, WNBA.

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Speaker 1: It is a first. It's a first, by the way.

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Speaker 1: That's how much I hate baseball that I'm going to

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Speaker 1: bet the WNBA coming up here. But I did get

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Speaker 1: a little birdie kind of whispered in my ear a

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Speaker 1: little bit about what's going to happen tonight for game

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Speaker 1: two of the Western Conference semi finals between the Las

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Speaker 1: Vegas Aces or it's just the WNBA simifinals. I don't

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Speaker 1: think it's a Western Conference. I don't even know, but

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Speaker 1: I know it's Game two of this best of five

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Speaker 1: series between Phoenix and the Las Vegas Aces here tonight

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Speaker 1: for the WNBA. We'll get to that little half unit

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Speaker 1: bet going for that game here seven o'clock Pacific time,

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Speaker 1: ten pm Eastern time tips. So you guys can watch

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Speaker 1: football and then you can watch WNBA basketball playoff basketball

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Speaker 1: going on here in Vegas. So I will give you

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Speaker 1: those plays coming up here in just one second. But first,

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Speaker 1: it is the final day to register for the Gail

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Speaker 1: your man cave. Well, we've got it up for grabs.

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Speaker 1: We will pull a name in a winner coming up

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Speaker 1: here on Friday. If you want to be into this,

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Speaker 1: it's not hard. You have to leave a review on

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Speaker 1: When you fill up the form, whatever the form tells

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Speaker 1: you to do, fill it out and you will be

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Speaker 1: entered into winning this contest. Now a couple things. The

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Speaker 1: review can be positive, negative, doesn't matter. You should also

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Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com sorry, just betting Pros on YouTube. Go

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Speaker 1: Subscribe and you will be given more end trees into

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Speaker 1: the autographed anything that we give away each and every month.

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Speaker 1: We have different giveaways. So if that autographic Gale Sales

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Speaker 1: do that right now. If you've already entered into a

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Speaker 1: previous contest. You are good to go, no worries. You

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Speaker 1: So good luck, best of luck, for you will pull

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Speaker 1: the name coming up tomorrow on the Daily Juice podcasts

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Speaker 1: in the Daily Juice giveaway. Okay, so let's start with

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Speaker 1: the two prop bets on Thursday night football. Okay. So,

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Speaker 1: Joe Burrow, his number is set at two forty eight

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Speaker 1: and a half for the quarterback for the Cincinnati Bengals.

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Speaker 1: I am a big Joe Burrow fan, all right. Joe

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Speaker 1: Burrow threw for two hundred and sixty one yards in

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Speaker 1: the first game against the Vikings at home overtime win.

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Speaker 1: He threw for two hundred and seven yards against the

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Speaker 1: Bear and he threw for one hundred and seventy two

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Speaker 1: yards up against the Steelers. Now, the defense really did

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Speaker 1: some good things in that football game for Cincinnati, but

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Speaker 1: I think it had more to do with the fact that, well,

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Speaker 1: I don't think that offense is all that good for

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Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh Steelers. And that's just my personal thing. I

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Speaker 1: know a lot of people kind of disagree with that.

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Speaker 1: They think that maybe this team is just going through

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Speaker 1: a rutt and maybe they'll come back. I'm not really

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Speaker 1: one of them. But Jacksonville defensively is giving up thirty

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Speaker 1: point three points per game. They're giving up four hundred

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Speaker 1: and eighteen total yards per game, and through the air,

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Speaker 1: they are giving up a whopping three hundred and two

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Speaker 1: point three yards per game. That is the fourth worst

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Speaker 1: pass defense in the NFL. Joe Burrow's number is set

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Speaker 1: for two forty eight and a half. We're going over

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Speaker 1: to forty eight and a half passing for Joe Burrow

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Speaker 1: here in this game. Like I mentioned, I think a

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Speaker 1: Jamar chase anytime touchdown bet it's probably a good one

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Speaker 1: to make as well. I'll have a personal play on that.

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Speaker 1: But I just don't think this jack this Jaguarre defense

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Speaker 1: could do anything. I think on a primetime game. This

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Speaker 1: is why I like the over. I think Jacksonville has

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Speaker 1: to score to keep pace. Again, I'm not in love

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Speaker 1: with the defense for Cincinnati, and I think the Cincinnati

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Speaker 1: defense that give up about two hundred and forty yards

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Speaker 1: themselves through the air, I think there's some you know,

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Speaker 1: some yardage to be gained there for Jacksonville through the

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Speaker 1: air again, Cincinnati, they're tough to run on. But more

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Speaker 1: on that here in just one second. And I think

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Speaker 1: you're gonna have a pretty robust passing attack going here

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Speaker 1: tonight for Jacksonville, which I think is how they keep

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Speaker 1: the game close, if they're going to keep the game close.

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Speaker 1: But quarter unit Joe Burrow over too forty eight and

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Speaker 1: a half yards passing. That is the third best option

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Speaker 1: tonight according to the prop bet cheat sheet, which you

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Speaker 1: can find on bettingpros dot com slash props Okay bettingpros

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Speaker 1: dot com slash props to get into the prop bet

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Speaker 1: cheat sheet. The number three option for tonight on the

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Speaker 1: prop bet cheat sheet Joe Burrow over two forty eight

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Speaker 1: and a half guards passing at a quarter unit minus

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Speaker 1: one ten and I'm jumping on Joe Burrow to throw

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Speaker 1: for more than two hundred and forty eight yard two

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Speaker 1: or forty nine and more for Joe Burrow up against

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Speaker 1: team that gives up a whopping three hundred and two

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Speaker 1: point three yards per game passing, Burrow may it close

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Speaker 1: to three hundred yards passing Tonight's up against this Jaguars defense.

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Speaker 1: Now on the other side, let's talk running, and let's

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Speaker 1: talk about the running game. So one of the things

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Speaker 1: that I believe and when you watch the way Jacksonville

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Speaker 1: is trying to approach this season, I think Jacksonville is

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Speaker 1: very concerned about having their quarterback drop back forty times

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Speaker 1: fifty times a game and just putting himself out on

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Speaker 1: an island and getting Trevor Lawrence popped. I think they're

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Speaker 1: very concerned about that. I think they want to avoid

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Speaker 1: that as much as possible. James Robinson is their running back,

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Speaker 1: and James Robinson got going a little bit in the

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Speaker 1: game last week where James Robinson ran for eighty eight yards.

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Speaker 1: He ran for twenty five yards just five carries against

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Speaker 1: the Texans. That was a pretty big eye opener, Like, wait,

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Speaker 1: what this doesn't make any sense. Against Denver, we thought

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Speaker 1: that they would run a bit more. They gave him

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Speaker 1: eleven carries and he ran for forty seven yards. Up

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Speaker 1: against the Cardinals, they gave him fifteen carries and he

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Speaker 1: ran for eighty eight yards. Are you sensing the trend

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Speaker 1: here when it comes to James Robinson. The more they're

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Speaker 1: giving him the football, the more effective he has been.

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Speaker 1: He had a very good year last year and a

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Speaker 1: lot of people were thinking this could be a monster

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Speaker 1: breakout year for him. He's averaging right now seven point

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Speaker 1: seven yards per reception in five point two yards per carrie.

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Speaker 1: That five point two yards per carry is pretty good.

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Speaker 1: Last week fifteen carries, like I mentioned, eighty eight yards

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Speaker 1: a five point nine yards per carry average in one

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Speaker 1: touchdown and he popped one for twenty one yards. I

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Speaker 1: think the Jaguars, at least early in the game, in

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Speaker 1: the first half, they're going to look to run the football.

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Speaker 1: James Robinson is the second most attractive option on the

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Speaker 1: betting Pros prop bet cheat sheet, and this week urban

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Speaker 1: Meyer talked about wanting to run the football more effectively

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Speaker 1: in getting James Robinson into the lineup and get into

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Speaker 1: the rotation a bit more. Fifteen carries in the last game,

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Speaker 1: maybe we get fifteen carries again against the Bengals. Over

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Speaker 1: fifty two and a half yards rushing for James Robinson

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Speaker 1: at minus one ten for a quarter unit. I do

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Speaker 1: think the Jags are going to want to try to

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Speaker 1: run the ball and keep it away from the Bengals.

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Speaker 1: Bengals rushing defense is good like I mentioned, Okay, it's

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Speaker 1: not easy to run on these guys. Three point three

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Speaker 1: yards per carry so far, that is fifth best in

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Speaker 1: the NFL. They're giving up just seventy eight point three

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Speaker 1: rushing yards per game. That again is eighth best in

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Speaker 1: the NFL. However, I do think that's a little bit inflated.

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Speaker 1: I do think that that's not entirely accurate given the

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Speaker 1: teams that they have faced. I'm not really buying it.

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Speaker 1: I talked about this before. I'm not really buying the

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Speaker 1: level of competition that Cincinnati has played. And I like Cincinnati.

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Speaker 1: I mean, don't get me wrong. I mean again, we

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Speaker 1: like we're on the over win total. Person, I love

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Speaker 1: them win the game and go three and one. They're

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Speaker 1: two and one right now. But they took on the

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Speaker 1: Vikings offense, which is okay. I know they have Dalvin Cook,

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Speaker 1: but okay, And in that game, Dalvin Cook ran for

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Speaker 1: just sixty one yards in one touchdown, and people are

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Speaker 1: pretty angry about that because they're like, wait, come on,

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Speaker 1: Dalvin Cook needs to get going. He needs more touches.

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Speaker 1: All the twenty carries is a lot. Offense lines got

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Speaker 1: a block more than against the Bears. They gave up

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Speaker 1: twenty points in that game, and then the Steelers they

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Speaker 1: gave up to just ten points. I don't like the

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Speaker 1: Steelers offense. I don't like the Bears offense. Vikings was

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Speaker 1: Week one, so maybe a little bit of a slower start,

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Speaker 1: and they also are going to be without their kicker

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Speaker 1: and Josh Lambeau who is not going to be there.

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Speaker 1: He missed practiced Monday and Tuesday for what the team

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Speaker 1: called personal reasons. So they'll have a new kicker here

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Speaker 1: in the game for the Jaguars for this game, So

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Speaker 1: maybe they'll look to run the ball a bit more,

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Speaker 1: maybe go forward on fourth and one a bit more.

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Speaker 1: We pop one, you know, one long one, and we

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Speaker 1: get there with the over fifty two and a half

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Speaker 1: for James Robinson for that, So two prop bets for

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Speaker 1: you guys, quarter unit each. Joe Burrow over two hundred

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Speaker 1: and forty eight and a half yards passing and James

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Speaker 1: Robinson over fifty two and a half yards passing as well.

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Speaker 1: That along with the over forty five and a half

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Speaker 1: tonights for primetime for Jacksonville and Cincinnati, all right, so

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Speaker 1: that leaves a half a unit out there. So I

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Speaker 1: got a little Birdie bat phone that someone tapped into

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Speaker 1: me and said, Matt, have you bet much on the WNBA?

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Speaker 1: And I said, actually, I've not bet a single dime

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Speaker 1: on the WNBA yet, and they said, okay, here is

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Speaker 1: the play. The total for the Las Vegas Aces up

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Speaker 1: against the Phoenix Mercury is one seventy. All right, shop

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Speaker 1: around and try to find this draft Kings at the

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Speaker 1: time of taping is one seventy. I've seen one seventy

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Speaker 1: in Vegas as well. One seventy is the total game

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Speaker 1: one on Tuesday, ninety six to ninety. That was the

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Speaker 1: final score. These teams have played now four times, and

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Speaker 1: three of the four times this has gone over. However,

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Speaker 1: the betting trends are interesting now. The Mercury are pretty

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Speaker 1: good in their last twenty two road games seventeen and

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Speaker 1: five against the spread in their last twenty three twenty

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Speaker 1: two road games. In the first game ninety six to

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Speaker 1: ninety depending on the number you bet, number was six,

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Speaker 1: six and a half seven, Okay, So if you bet

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Speaker 1: six and a half or seven on the Aces, you

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Speaker 1: didn't cover. They It's a game where if the Mercury,

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Speaker 1: who has been one of the best shooting teams in

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Speaker 1: the WNBA this year, but shot poorly from behind the arc.

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Speaker 1: If they hit their threes, they're gonna be in this game. Now.

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Speaker 1: Vegas has an historically great offense. Kelsey Plumb off the bench,

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Speaker 1: scored twenty five points. Okay, they're working Liz cam Bage

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Speaker 1: back into the lineup. She only played, scored seven points,

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Speaker 1: played about nine minutes in game number one. They're working

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Speaker 1: her back in. Danny Tarassi hurt her ankle, but she

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Speaker 1: should be good to go. She was in a walking

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Speaker 1: foot after game one, but everyone thinks she's gonna be

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Speaker 1: good to go. She had twenty points, five rebounds, and

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Speaker 1: six sists in the game. Because she played really well.

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Speaker 1: Britney Greer Griner was really good. Team high twenty six

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Speaker 1: points at seven boards. She was extraordinarily effective for the Mercury.

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Speaker 1: But here's the thing. The total has gone over in

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Speaker 1: eight of the team's last ten away games against Las

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Speaker 1: Vegas for Phoenix. Okay. In addition to this, Phoenix is

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Speaker 1: eight and two straight up in the last ten games

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Speaker 1: on the road at Las Vegas. It's a game two

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Speaker 1: of the best of five. This is as close to

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Speaker 1: a must win game as you're gonna get here, and

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Speaker 1: I just don't leave that. Even though it's playoff basketball,

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Speaker 1: I don't think that you can play a grinded out

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Speaker 1: style against Vegas. Vegas has too many weapons. They can score.

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Speaker 1: You got to run with them, you gotta move with them,

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Speaker 1: and you gotta run with them. I'm tempted to play

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Speaker 1: the plus seven and a half that I saw at

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Speaker 1: Circus Sports tonight. I was like, man, you can get

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Speaker 1: plus seven and a half on the Mercury. I thought

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Speaker 1: maybe that might be a good number because Vegas is

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Speaker 1: not in all four games, Vegas has not won by

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Speaker 1: more than six points here in these in the four

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Speaker 1: games so far here in this series, and he also

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Speaker 1: game one they won by six points. But man, Vegas

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Speaker 1: has some real firepower and if they get rolling, lookout.

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Speaker 1: But I think one seventy here, I think the over again.

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Speaker 1: Someone was like, look it the way that Phoenix has

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Speaker 1: to play. They got to play up tempo, they gotta run,

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Speaker 1: they gotta shoot threes, and it's you know, Phoenix scored

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Speaker 1: thirty points in the first quarter against Vegas in Game one, Right,

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Speaker 1: they need to keep on doing things like that where

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Speaker 1: they can explode offensively. And Las Vegas is going to

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Speaker 1: have to respond defensively. Vegas has been good this year,

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Speaker 1: but Phoenix. Again. Eight of the last ten games here

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Speaker 1: in Vegas have gone over for Phoenix, and it looks

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Speaker 1: like everyone's going to be fine. Everyone's going to be available,

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Speaker 1: Everyone's going to be fine. And that means three point shooting.

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Speaker 1: Both teams were near the top of the league in

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Speaker 1: shooting percentages this year, near fifty percent from the floor.

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Speaker 1: We get that again and we're sailing over like we

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Speaker 1: did in Game one, where one hundred and eighty six

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Speaker 1: points got scored in the total was one seventy one.

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Speaker 1: Now we're at one seventy. We're going over one seventy

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Speaker 1: for a half a unit. After we watch football, we

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Speaker 1: can flip over and root for points between Phoenix and

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Speaker 1: Las Vegas in Game two of their best of five

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Speaker 1: series in the WNBA playoffs. Right, So those are our

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Speaker 1: three bets for today. Two prop bets going Tonight's Joe

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Speaker 1: Burrow over two forty eight and a half yards passing,

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Speaker 1: James Robinson over fifty two and a half yards rushing.

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Speaker 1: Both of those are a quarter unit and a half

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Speaker 1: a unit on basketball over one seventy. That's at DraftKings

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Speaker 1: for the WNBA game between the Las Vegas Aces and

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Speaker 1: the Phoenix Mercury for Game two of their best of

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Speaker 1: five series. My name is Matt Parolt. Tomorrow on a Friday,

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Speaker 1: we'll have the Parlay and we'll have a whole lot

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Speaker 1: of plays on college football to get into. There's some

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Speaker 1: numbers I'm watching still and I haven't got involved with

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Speaker 1: just about yet. We'll do that coming up for the

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Speaker 1: podcast on Friday. Mine's Matt Parolt. Follow me on Twitter

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Speaker 1: at sports Talk Matt. Every single morning it's the Daily

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Speaker 1: Juice podcast right here on Betting Pros dot Com, always

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Speaker 1: being brought to you by bet MGM