Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Just over two
Speaker 1: and a half million passengers passing through US airport checkpoints
Speaker 1: yesterday Sunday, according to t s A data. That's the
Speaker 1: most in a single day since before the COVID nineteen pandemic,
Speaker 1: and up about four and a half percent from the
Speaker 1: same day last year. Again, according to the t s A,
Speaker 1: still the one day tally fell about eleven shy had
Speaker 1: the same figure back in when two point eight eight
Speaker 1: million travelers were screened. But bottom line, like there's a
Speaker 1: lot going on. People are traveling absolutely still seems like
Speaker 1: a lot of pent up demand. You know, people who
Speaker 1: canceled vacations and visits to their family during the pandemic
Speaker 1: really trying to still get them in now. So uh,
Speaker 1: I don't know, it's uh good time to travel, I guess.
Speaker 1: All right, Well, let's see what our next guest has
Speaker 1: to say about that Price Line CEO Brick Keller joining
Speaker 1: us to be a zoom from Norwalk, Connecticut. Price Line,
Speaker 1: of course, a subsidiary of the publicly held booking holdings
Speaker 1: Brett Good to have you here Bloomberg Business Week. Tell
Speaker 1: us about the activity that you guys are seeing. Have
Speaker 1: you been traveling a lot lately? Yes, I have. Actually,
Speaker 1: I just got back late last night from a trip
Speaker 1: out west. The plane was completely packed, you know, a
Speaker 1: little bit of a delay coming into New York, but overall,
Speaker 1: you know, the Thanksgiving period of travel across the country
Speaker 1: was very smooth, you know, Brett, Obviously, inflation has been
Speaker 1: the hot topic all year. I'm wondering what you're seeing
Speaker 1: as far as prices in the travel, hotel, airfare, that
Speaker 1: sort of thing. Are they rising as much as you
Speaker 1: know cp I would suggest something like seven Actually a
Speaker 1: little hotter than that. Um depends on, you know, whether
Speaker 1: you're booking a flight or book in a hotel, but
Speaker 1: they're both up. On the hotel side, you know, prices
Speaker 1: up seven eight percent versus where they were a year
Speaker 1: ago today, so a little less in the CPI, But
Speaker 1: when you look at flies and they're closer to fifteen,
Speaker 1: especially if you're flying overseas. So with the cost of
Speaker 1: jet fuel, you know, really up fifty percent where it
Speaker 1: was a year ago. That's pushing prices higher along labor
Speaker 1: costs and consumers seem to be shaking off those higher prices.
Speaker 1: They continue to prioritize travel over other purchases and are
Speaker 1: really hitting the roads. So here at Priceline, you know,
Speaker 1: we're really seeing good, healthy travel demand. October actually accelerated
Speaker 1: from where it was in August and September. As we
Speaker 1: look into next year, patterns seem to be holding up
Speaker 1: at least so far. So are we back at levels
Speaker 1: based on what you're seeing off your platform, Brett, Yeah,
Speaker 1: we're very close. On the hotel front. If you just
Speaker 1: look at industry data broadly, for for the hotel category,
Speaker 1: you know, their occupancy rates are just about where they
Speaker 1: were in two thousand nineteen, maybe a percentage point below,
Speaker 1: but very healthy on the flight side, even higher in
Speaker 1: the nineties in terms of you know, seat capacity utilization.
Speaker 1: So things look pretty good in the industry right now.
Speaker 1: And you know, consumers no longer have any COVID concerns,
Speaker 1: especially here in domestic travel in the US, and we're
Speaker 1: seeing a really strong demand into Europe and now starting
Speaker 1: into Asia as they've lifted restrictions there. Let me just
Speaker 1: just to follow on that. So I am always curious,
Speaker 1: Brett on a platform like yours, I mean, how much
Speaker 1: visibility do you have looking out Is it a couple
Speaker 1: of months, is it's six months, is it twelve months?
Speaker 1: What kind of visibility do you have in terms of
Speaker 1: what the environment might be for travel heading into sure, well,
Speaker 1: the average booking window for a consumer booking you know,
Speaker 1: out into the future is usually pretty close in two
Speaker 1: three to four weeks. That's really where most of the
Speaker 1: bookings happen. But we do see, you know, well into
Speaker 1: the future people will book out to three and four
Speaker 1: months for certain types of vacations, and so that's a
Speaker 1: good proxy for what we're seeing. And so far that
Speaker 1: data looks pretty good. Things are still relatively healthy as
Speaker 1: we look into the future into first quarter of next year,
Speaker 1: so you know, demand again appears to be holding up
Speaker 1: um and we'll we'll see where it goes from there.
Speaker 1: But so far, we're we're happy with how things are
Speaker 1: playing out in the travel space. Yeah, Brett, I think
Speaker 1: probably a lot of listeners hit your site looking for
Speaker 1: a deal of course, you know, or any tips on
Speaker 1: how to save a few bucks in this holiday season,
Speaker 1: considering prices of everything are higher. There any sort of
Speaker 1: tricks of the trade you could share with us. Yeah, absolutely, listen.
Speaker 1: This is why price Line was founded, you know twenty
Speaker 1: five years ago, was to help consumers navigate a very
Speaker 1: complex space and and find savings. So when when you
Speaker 1: think about ways to save money today and this really
Speaker 1: high price environment, one is you really need to avoid
Speaker 1: these high peak travel dates if your schedule allows, and
Speaker 1: more and more consumers are able to do that now.
Speaker 1: So for example, with the upcoming holidays, try your best
Speaker 1: not to fly on the twenty three and right right
Speaker 1: before and right after a Christmas holiday or the day
Speaker 1: after New Year's Day. Really try and push that out
Speaker 1: a couple of days. You can save fifteen because they
Speaker 1: really optimally price for those dates at From the airline side,
Speaker 1: a second way is on a site like price Line,
Speaker 1: you can book with mixed carriers. You can fly out
Speaker 1: on one airline fly back on another that can typically
Speaker 1: deliver you anywhere from five decent percent off of what
Speaker 1: you would pay if you flew out and back on
Speaker 1: the same carrier. So by mixing and matching carriers you
Speaker 1: can save money. And a third is to package right
Speaker 1: and bundle your your your bookings together. So if you're
Speaker 1: going to book a hotel and a flight, bundle those together,
Speaker 1: you will save money because we have access to especially
Speaker 1: negotiated rays that can only be used in that bundled experience,
Speaker 1: and that does deliver real value up to you know,
Speaker 1: a couple of hundred dollars a trip when you really
Speaker 1: are thoughtful about destinations and how you book those together.
Speaker 1: You guys do have lots of data you can see
Speaker 1: in real time, like what's interesting to people, what are
Speaker 1: the most popular flights that people are booking right now? Well, uh,
Speaker 1: you know, coming out of consumers really stay close to
Speaker 1: home and many of them were not really even leaving
Speaker 1: the country. Uh. And so we've seen big markets really
Speaker 1: start to open up this year, especially for Christmas and
Speaker 1: New Year's So New York, Atlanta, Las Vegas, l A
Speaker 1: all very very top of the charts right now. Also Orlando. Uh.
Speaker 1: That's always been a number one or number two market
Speaker 1: for US in particular, but really for the country, and
Speaker 1: it continues to be a top market for consumers. But
Speaker 1: what we're seeing a lot more the second half is
Speaker 1: people are leaving the US to travel overseas, and when
Speaker 1: you look at where they're going in Europe, obviously London
Speaker 1: is a big market, but they're also heading into many
Speaker 1: other interesting destinations there and a few now moving into Asia.
Speaker 1: But really for the holiday period, warm destinations are at
Speaker 1: the top of the list. Locations like Cancoon, Jamaica, Dominican
Speaker 1: Republic are very very appealing to consumers just looking to
Speaker 1: get a break and get some sunshine. A colleague of
Speaker 1: ours here uh said, yep, we just came back from Jamaica,
Speaker 1: and I have to say our producer Paul Brennan actually
Speaker 1: over in Madrid with his family spending Thanksgiving there, and
Speaker 1: so yeah, people Mike are out and about and they're
Speaker 1: getting out of the US. Take any of those destinations. Yes, yes,
Speaker 1: and yes, hot sand a golf course, swimming pool, one
Speaker 1: of those drinks with the umbrella. But Brett, you know,
Speaker 1: it's such an unusual economic environment that we're in right now.
Speaker 1: We have high inflation but super low unemployment. Everyone's worried
Speaker 1: about a recession. I'm wondering which of those variables matter
Speaker 1: the most to your business. You know, is it unemployment,
Speaker 1: is it g d P? Is it inflation? Is you
Speaker 1: know my guess is unemployment is is probably that the
Speaker 1: main thing that would sort of be a headwind to
Speaker 1: travel is that a fair assumption. Yeah, I think that's
Speaker 1: a fair assumption. I've been in the industry for over
Speaker 1: twenty five years. You know, we went through this back
Speaker 1: in oh eight, and travel is a very resilient category.
Speaker 1: People seem to prioritize that they always want to have
Speaker 1: that opportunity to visit family, to take a break, and so,
Speaker 1: you know, if you're unemployed, obviously that makes it very,
Speaker 1: very challenging to pull together the dollars that's required to
Speaker 1: tip to take a trip like this. But what people
Speaker 1: will typically do if they're constrained is they'll start to
Speaker 1: modify how they travel. They may drive instead of fly,
Speaker 1: they may you know, drop down a star category. Um,
Speaker 1: they'll find ways to save money but still take that trip.
Speaker 1: And we're not necessarily seeing that trade down happen yet,
Speaker 1: but certainly that's what consumers may end up doing if
Speaker 1: they're really pressed for cash. Brett. We spend I feel
Speaker 1: like every day in and out here at Bloomberg, because
Speaker 1: of the upcoming FED meeting, because of the FED conversations,
Speaker 1: because of j Pal speaking this week. We talk about,
Speaker 1: you know, the prospect of a recession, whether it will
Speaker 1: be shallow, whether it will be deep, whether the FED
Speaker 1: will overdo it. What's the conversation's constructive conversations you guys
Speaker 1: are having at priceline Um when it comes to the
Speaker 1: economic outlook and the possibility of a recession. Sure, well,
Speaker 1: that's obviously on everyone's mind here as well as we
Speaker 1: read the news and everything that's going on in the
Speaker 1: in the category. What's interesting though, is so far, the
Speaker 1: hotel chains, the major airlines, they are all signaling good, strong,
Speaker 1: healthy demand for their product. And a lot of that
Speaker 1: obviously is because of consumers not being able to travel
Speaker 1: for really a good year and a half, and so
Speaker 1: that's propelling travel forward. And you know, when you think
Speaker 1: about what consumers are looking to do with whatever extra
Speaker 1: cash they have, they are prioritizing this now over really commodities.
Speaker 1: So you know, as we think about a recession, we're thinking, yeah,
Speaker 1: this could be, this could be obviously harmful to the
Speaker 1: industry longer term, but we just don't see that. And
Speaker 1: historically when you look back to Ohay, it weathered that
Speaker 1: very very well as well. So we're very optimistic about
Speaker 1: the next couple of years, even in the face of
Speaker 1: what could be, you know, a recession. But you know,
Speaker 1: you can't predict the future anymore. It's it's becoming a
Speaker 1: bit a bit too challenging, you know, Brett Quickly, I
Speaker 1: was looking at some of the notes that you sent
Speaker 1: us before the show, Um and Cruises. The price you gave,
Speaker 1: the low price for a cruise ship per night made
Speaker 1: my eyes pop out. Is that a type of seventy
Speaker 1: dollars a night you can you can go on a
Speaker 1: cruise work. No, that's absolutely an accurate figure. In fact,
Speaker 1: you know that's one of and most people don't know this,
Speaker 1: it is one of the most cost effective vacations there
Speaker 1: are because it typically includes obviously food and beverage as well,
Speaker 1: so you bring that together. It's a it's a really
Speaker 1: nice vacation. Now you have to get yourself to a
Speaker 1: cruise port, but there are ways to either drive there
Speaker 1: or find a cheap flight to get you there too,
Speaker 1: then get you onto that cruise line. And now you know,
Speaker 1: the cruise lines obviously had a tough time through COVID
Speaker 1: and continue to have a lot of excess capacity, more
Speaker 1: so than many of the other travel categories. So they're
Speaker 1: really they're really rolling out the credits and other things
Speaker 1: to get you onto those ships. Yeah, I just talked
Speaker 1: with the CEO and CFO of Royal Caribbean for an
Speaker 1: upcoming Bloomberg television broadcasting. They seem pretty optimistic about the outlook.
Speaker 1: They're pretty busy, all right, Brett Keller, thank you so much,
Speaker 1: CEO at price Line, joining us via zoom in Connecticut