WEBVTT - Excruciating Choices For Schools

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Francesco leaving Laura Carlson is out.

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<v Speaker 1>It's day one hundred twenty one since coronavirus was declared

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<v Speaker 1>a global pandemic. Today's main story. There's no doubt that

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<v Speaker 1>classrooms from kindergarten to college will look different for students

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<v Speaker 1>and teachers this fall. But even as education systems struggle

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<v Speaker 1>to reinvent themselves for a COVID world, the issue of

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<v Speaker 1>reopening schools has become a political football. But first, here's

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<v Speaker 1>what happened in virus News today. The pandemic is killing

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<v Speaker 1>record numbers of people in the American Sun Belt, overrunning

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<v Speaker 1>hospitals and exhausting supplies. But even as some leaders fall

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<v Speaker 1>ill themselves, they have failed to take the stiff measures

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<v Speaker 1>needed to contain the disease. On Thursday, Florida Governor Rhonda

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<v Speaker 1>Santists offered no new restrictions as Florida joined Texas and

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<v Speaker 1>California in reporting record deaths. Arizona Governor Doug Doucy promised

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<v Speaker 1>more testing and limited restaurant capacity after the state announced

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<v Speaker 1>the most cases in six days. In Mississippi, where many

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<v Speaker 1>lawmakers had resisted wearing masks in the capital. Twenty six

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<v Speaker 1>of them tested positive, including the leaders of both legislative chambers.

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<v Speaker 1>New US virus cases topped sixty thousand a day for

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<v Speaker 1>the first time Thursday, with the national total above three

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<v Speaker 1>point one million. Gilead Sciences said it's ramdzevier virus treatment

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<v Speaker 1>could reduce the risk of death for patients with COVID

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen by sixty two. The company said they based this

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<v Speaker 1>finding on an analysis that combines clinical trial results with

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<v Speaker 1>a real world cohort of patients with severe disease. The

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<v Speaker 1>results would have to be confirmed with prospective clinical trials. Finally,

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<v Speaker 1>the FED has a message about the best way to

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<v Speaker 1>boost the economy wear a mask. Robert Kaplan, president of

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<v Speaker 1>the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said that widespread mask

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<v Speaker 1>wearing and following other healthcare measures will be vital to

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<v Speaker 1>economic growth in the US. Kaplan said mask wearing could

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<v Speaker 1>substantially mute the spread of the coronavirus. Using face coverings

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<v Speaker 1>would likely bolster reopenings and create faster growth and a

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<v Speaker 1>lower unemployment rate. And now for today's main story. With

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<v Speaker 1>the start of school, fast approaching institutions from elementary schools

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<v Speaker 1>to colleges, are rushing to reinvent themselves for the coronavirus era.

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<v Speaker 1>Some are shifting to a mix of in person and

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<v Speaker 1>virtual classes. Meanwhile, the Trump admin station is pushing schools

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<v Speaker 1>to reopen completely. I talked to Bloomberg reporter and the Court,

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<v Speaker 1>who reports that as schools become the latest political touch

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<v Speaker 1>point in the COVID crisis, there are far more questions

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<v Speaker 1>than answers about keeping classrooms safe and what education will

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<v Speaker 1>look like in the fall. So what is the latest

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<v Speaker 1>on how K through twelve schools are planning to reopen.

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<v Speaker 1>Plans for reopening elementary, middle high schools are starting to

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<v Speaker 1>come out. We've seen New York, for instance, offer up

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<v Speaker 1>this option of part time in person learning. We've seen

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<v Speaker 1>some other districts follow in that sort of model as well.

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<v Speaker 1>And the real constraint here seems to be literally physical

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<v Speaker 1>space and classrooms. You know, under CDC guidance for reopening

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<v Speaker 1>these schools, the ideas you want to have smaller class

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<v Speaker 1>sizes so kids can appropriately social distance. And obviously there's

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<v Speaker 1>some concerns about you know, if you've really young kids,

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<v Speaker 1>for instance, will they be able to social distance, will

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<v Speaker 1>they understand what that means, will they be able to

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<v Speaker 1>wash their hands as thoroughly as you would like, things

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<v Speaker 1>like that. Um, And that's why you're seeing many schools

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<v Speaker 1>propose these sort of smaller in person schedules because they

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<v Speaker 1>physically can't really accommodate that, and they don't have staffing

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<v Speaker 1>as well. And what's the message on this from the

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<v Speaker 1>Trump administration? This is something that the Trump administration came

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<v Speaker 1>out very firmly against this week. During a press conference

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<v Speaker 1>the other day, they said, basically, schools have to reopen

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<v Speaker 1>in full, and that was really the message there. There

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<v Speaker 1>wasn't really any public health guidance around that or practical

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<v Speaker 1>advice about how schools might be able to accomplish that.

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<v Speaker 1>The message was really, schools have to reopen. They talked

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<v Speaker 1>a lot about the different problems with schools being closed,

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<v Speaker 1>including that virtual learning in many cases, you know, hasn't

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<v Speaker 1>been as effective and some schools haven't really been able

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<v Speaker 1>to do that very well. So you heard them talk

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<v Speaker 1>about you know, losing educational gains, about other issues that

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<v Speaker 1>come up, you know, food and security, you know, teachers

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<v Speaker 1>not being able to spot domestic violence, things like that.

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<v Speaker 1>A really strong message about how working parents will not

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<v Speaker 1>be able to restore the economy basically under these kinds

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<v Speaker 1>of conditions. And how are families with kids reacting to this?

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<v Speaker 1>What do what do they want to see happen in

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<v Speaker 1>the fall? You know, it's interesting about this is a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of parents really want school to come back, right,

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<v Speaker 1>and they want to be able to kind of resume

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<v Speaker 1>a normal schedule. But there's some really major concerns about

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<v Speaker 1>safety here obviously, and whether schools can appropriately keep kids safe.

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<v Speaker 1>At the same time, you know, two or three days

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<v Speaker 1>a week in the classroom doesn't really solve many working

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<v Speaker 1>parents problems, right, They still have to figure out child

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<v Speaker 1>care for other days of the week. I mean, many

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<v Speaker 1>working parents have been really in a state of very

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<v Speaker 1>difficult circumstances during this time. And I think you know

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of people probably agree that kids need to

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<v Speaker 1>go back to school. The question is how. But children,

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<v Speaker 1>as far as we know, are supposed to be largely

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<v Speaker 1>shielded from the virus, right, So what is the science

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<v Speaker 1>on that. How much danger would kids be in going

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<v Speaker 1>back to schools? This is kind of the ten million

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<v Speaker 1>dollar questions, So it's still really mysterious what the role

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<v Speaker 1>of children is in all of this. We know children

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<v Speaker 1>have become infected with COVID nineteen, but it's not as

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<v Speaker 1>frequent as adults become ill with this disease. And there's

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<v Speaker 1>some contradictory research on this subject. So some have found,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, school aged children seem to be less contagious,

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<v Speaker 1>but there's also another study that found, you know, basically

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<v Speaker 1>the opposite, that kids may be as contagious as adults.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's worth noting there's an international perspective on

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<v Speaker 1>this as well. There are countries that have reopened schools

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<v Speaker 1>successfully without seeing coronavirus cases you know, rides significantly. But

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<v Speaker 1>the consensus on that is really that they did that

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<v Speaker 1>by following safety precautions, by limiting class sizes, by taking

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<v Speaker 1>other kinds of mitigation steps. Reopening schools obviously has major

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<v Speaker 1>implications for the economy, not just for working parents, but

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<v Speaker 1>also for their kids educational gains. So what are the

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<v Speaker 1>experts saying about that? How are they kind of sifting

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<v Speaker 1>through all of these difficult choices. The issue here is

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<v Speaker 1>that the stakes are sort of pretty high no matter

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<v Speaker 1>what you do. Right, Um, we know that working parents

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<v Speaker 1>have had to manage both their workdays and childcare and

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<v Speaker 1>it's forced really difficult situations for families. There are questions

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<v Speaker 1>about whether it's pushing working mothers out of the workforce

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<v Speaker 1>because it's just too impossible to be caring for toddlers

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<v Speaker 1>during the day and also managing a demanding full time job.

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<v Speaker 1>But then on the other hand, you have this question

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<v Speaker 1>about if children really aren't learning effectively during this time,

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<v Speaker 1>are they losing out on all of this education that

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<v Speaker 1>could basically further literally they're earning potential. There's the stakes

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<v Speaker 1>are high. It's not just K through twelve schools, right,

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<v Speaker 1>Colleges and universities are also dealing with these issues. How

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<v Speaker 1>do college is plan to approach this? This has really

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<v Speaker 1>been the week of school, so we've seen not only

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<v Speaker 1>some of the sort of political tensions heat up between

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<v Speaker 1>the federal government and states and localities over you know,

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<v Speaker 1>whether school should reopen and how, but we've also seen

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<v Speaker 1>a number of universities come out this week with plans

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<v Speaker 1>as to how they will go back to school this fall. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, there's a mix of plans that are emerging,

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<v Speaker 1>but most are opting for some form of in person

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<v Speaker 1>reopening and then a mix of you know, virtual and

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<v Speaker 1>in person classes or just a full in person reopening

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<v Speaker 1>with US. Some schools also turning to online classes again.

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<v Speaker 1>For instance, Rutgers has chosen to do most of its

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<v Speaker 1>classes online this fall, and I believe all of their

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<v Speaker 1>undergraduate classes online. You know, what's interesting is the amount

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<v Speaker 1>of variety and the lack of consensus here. You might expect,

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<v Speaker 1>given that universities have so much in common in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of challenges, that they might all be coming out with

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<v Speaker 1>the same kinds of plans, but that's just not what's

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<v Speaker 1>happening here. I think one expert I spoke to said,

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<v Speaker 1>people don't really know what the right thing is to

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<v Speaker 1>do here. In schools are coming with from very different

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<v Speaker 1>places in terms of resources, not just financial resources, but

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<v Speaker 1>also in terms of ability to do things like testing.

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<v Speaker 1>So if you have a hospital or a really big

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<v Speaker 1>research lab on campus, that's something you can leverage to

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<v Speaker 1>test your student body. But you know, if you're a

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<v Speaker 1>university or a college with that's public, that doesn't have

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<v Speaker 1>as much financial resources, that's really small. Those questions become

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<v Speaker 1>a lot more complicated. And when we look at states

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<v Speaker 1>like Florida, Texas, California, sun Belt states that have had

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<v Speaker 1>these recent virus surges, how is that complicating this question

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<v Speaker 1>even further, are those places planning to reopen schools and

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<v Speaker 1>is that even a good idea. That's the thing about

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<v Speaker 1>this virus when you're planning for how to do things

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<v Speaker 1>during this time, that the target is always moving. So

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<v Speaker 1>we've heard, for instance, the Los Angeles Times reported that

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<v Speaker 1>Los Angeles County, which has been a big hot spot

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<v Speaker 1>right now, is looking at being able to shift online

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<v Speaker 1>depending on where the virus is, you know, come the fall,

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<v Speaker 1>and quoted the health Health Department director, They're saying, we

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<v Speaker 1>have to do this, we have to think about a

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<v Speaker 1>backup plan because of what's going on right now. In Florida,

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<v Speaker 1>there's plans to push ahead with an in person reopening

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<v Speaker 1>in the fall, but I spoke with a public health

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<v Speaker 1>expert there who said she was very worried about it

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<v Speaker 1>and she didn't see how it could possibly work and

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<v Speaker 1>was really concerned about planning for in person reopening. She said,

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<v Speaker 1>is something you can do for schools when the virus

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<v Speaker 1>is really in the background, Right when the virus isn't

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<v Speaker 1>making itself so present and so known in the community

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<v Speaker 1>is and infecting so many people, She said, doing something

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<v Speaker 1>like this when the virus is Uh, you know, breaking

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<v Speaker 1>records every day is not advisable, and I think there

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<v Speaker 1>are gonna be some really big questions about wheather reopening

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<v Speaker 1>schools if this does happen intensify as some of the

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<v Speaker 1>trends we've already been seeing. You know, you really wouldn't

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<v Speaker 1>want a young child going to school and maybe themselves

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<v Speaker 1>not getting sick, but bringing it home, the virus home

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<v Speaker 1>to their parents, to their maybe they live in a

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<v Speaker 1>house with elderly grandparents. That's a situation you wouldn't want

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<v Speaker 1>um and could add to to the damage that's already

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<v Speaker 1>been caused. So these are really difficult decisions. But you

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<v Speaker 1>know they wouldn't be so hard if the United States

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<v Speaker 1>was in a better place with this virus, If there

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<v Speaker 1>were more precautions, that there were more safety measures that

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<v Speaker 1>were well developed, like contact tracing, you might be able

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<v Speaker 1>to say, Okay, we have a better grip on this virus,

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<v Speaker 1>and we think we can go successfully back to school.

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<v Speaker 1>It seems so difficult because on the one hand, everyone's

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<v Speaker 1>really demanding answers about this right now. It's so important

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<v Speaker 1>for families and kids and education employees to understand kind

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<v Speaker 1>of how this is going to work. And yet at

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<v Speaker 1>the same time, any answers we come up with right

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<v Speaker 1>now could be thrown right out the window a month

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<v Speaker 1>or two from now. Yeah. I mean, if you think

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<v Speaker 1>about it, we've been making excruciating decisions for months now

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<v Speaker 1>about whether to open things, how to open things, whether

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<v Speaker 1>it made sense, whether it would come at the expense

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<v Speaker 1>of the health of the community. Right we're still making

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<v Speaker 1>those decisions now as the fall arrives. And you know,

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<v Speaker 1>you would have thought it might have gotten easier by now,

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<v Speaker 1>that we would have had more tools in our tool kit,

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<v Speaker 1>more ability to weigh the costs of some of these things.

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<v Speaker 1>But we're still we're still making these excruciating decisions. And

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I think what's becoming apparent is anyone who

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<v Speaker 1>thinks we're going to be in a much better place

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<v Speaker 1>in a couple of months should think about the experience

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<v Speaker 1>we've had in the last couple of months and wonder

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<v Speaker 1>if that's really going to be true. That was Emma

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<v Speaker 1>Court and that's it for our show for coverage of

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<v Speaker 1>the outbreak from bureaus around the world. Because at Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>dot com sh coronavirus and if you like the show,

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<v Speaker 1>please leave us a review. And a rating on Apple

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<v Speaker 1>Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to help more

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<v Speaker 1>listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is

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<v Speaker 1>produced by Topor foreheads Jordan Gospore, Magnus Hendrickson, and Laura Carlston.

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<v Speaker 1>Today's main story was reported by Emma Cord. Original music

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<v Speaker 1>by Leo Sidran. Our editors are Rick Shine and me

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<v Speaker 1>Francesca Levi. Bloomberg's head of podcasts is me