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Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Francesco leaving Laura Carlson is out.

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Speaker 1: It's day one hundred twenty one since coronavirus was declared

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Speaker 1: a global pandemic. Today's main story. There's no doubt that

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Speaker 1: classrooms from kindergarten to college will look different for students

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Speaker 1: and teachers this fall. But even as education systems struggle

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Speaker 1: to reinvent themselves for a COVID world, the issue of

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Speaker 1: reopening schools has become a political football. But first, here's

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Speaker 1: what happened in virus News today. The pandemic is killing

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Speaker 1: record numbers of people in the American Sun Belt, overrunning

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Speaker 1: hospitals and exhausting supplies. But even as some leaders fall

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Speaker 1: ill themselves, they have failed to take the stiff measures

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Speaker 1: needed to contain the disease. On Thursday, Florida Governor Rhonda

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Speaker 1: Santists offered no new restrictions as Florida joined Texas and

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Speaker 1: California in reporting record deaths. Arizona Governor Doug Doucy promised

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Speaker 1: more testing and limited restaurant capacity after the state announced

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Speaker 1: the most cases in six days. In Mississippi, where many

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Speaker 1: lawmakers had resisted wearing masks in the capital. Twenty six

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Speaker 1: of them tested positive, including the leaders of both legislative chambers.

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Speaker 1: New US virus cases topped sixty thousand a day for

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Speaker 1: the first time Thursday, with the national total above three

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Speaker 1: point one million. Gilead Sciences said it's ramdzevier virus treatment

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Speaker 1: could reduce the risk of death for patients with COVID

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Speaker 1: nineteen by sixty two. The company said they based this

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Speaker 1: finding on an analysis that combines clinical trial results with

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Speaker 1: a real world cohort of patients with severe disease. The

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Speaker 1: results would have to be confirmed with prospective clinical trials. Finally,

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Speaker 1: the FED has a message about the best way to

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Speaker 1: boost the economy wear a mask. Robert Kaplan, president of

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Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said that widespread mask

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Speaker 1: wearing and following other healthcare measures will be vital to

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Speaker 1: economic growth in the US. Kaplan said mask wearing could

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Speaker 1: substantially mute the spread of the coronavirus. Using face coverings

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Speaker 1: would likely bolster reopenings and create faster growth and a

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Speaker 1: lower unemployment rate. And now for today's main story. With

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Speaker 1: the start of school, fast approaching institutions from elementary schools

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Speaker 1: to colleges, are rushing to reinvent themselves for the coronavirus era.

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Speaker 1: Some are shifting to a mix of in person and

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Speaker 1: virtual classes. Meanwhile, the Trump admin station is pushing schools

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Speaker 1: to reopen completely. I talked to Bloomberg reporter and the Court,

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Speaker 1: who reports that as schools become the latest political touch

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Speaker 1: point in the COVID crisis, there are far more questions

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Speaker 1: than answers about keeping classrooms safe and what education will

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Speaker 1: look like in the fall. So what is the latest

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Speaker 1: on how K through twelve schools are planning to reopen.

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Speaker 1: Plans for reopening elementary, middle high schools are starting to

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Speaker 1: come out. We've seen New York, for instance, offer up

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Speaker 1: this option of part time in person learning. We've seen

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Speaker 1: some other districts follow in that sort of model as well.

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Speaker 1: And the real constraint here seems to be literally physical

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Speaker 1: space and classrooms. You know, under CDC guidance for reopening

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Speaker 1: these schools, the ideas you want to have smaller class

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Speaker 1: sizes so kids can appropriately social distance. And obviously there's

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Speaker 1: some concerns about you know, if you've really young kids,

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Speaker 1: for instance, will they be able to social distance, will

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Speaker 1: they understand what that means, will they be able to

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Speaker 1: wash their hands as thoroughly as you would like, things

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Speaker 1: like that. Um, And that's why you're seeing many schools

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Speaker 1: propose these sort of smaller in person schedules because they

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Speaker 1: physically can't really accommodate that, and they don't have staffing

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Speaker 1: as well. And what's the message on this from the

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Speaker 1: Trump administration? This is something that the Trump administration came

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Speaker 1: out very firmly against this week. During a press conference

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Speaker 1: the other day, they said, basically, schools have to reopen

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Speaker 1: in full, and that was really the message there. There

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Speaker 1: wasn't really any public health guidance around that or practical

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Speaker 1: advice about how schools might be able to accomplish that.

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Speaker 1: The message was really, schools have to reopen. They talked

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Speaker 1: a lot about the different problems with schools being closed,

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Speaker 1: including that virtual learning in many cases, you know, hasn't

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Speaker 1: been as effective and some schools haven't really been able

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Speaker 1: to do that very well. So you heard them talk

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Speaker 1: about you know, losing educational gains, about other issues that

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Speaker 1: come up, you know, food and security, you know, teachers

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Speaker 1: not being able to spot domestic violence, things like that.

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Speaker 1: A really strong message about how working parents will not

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Speaker 1: be able to restore the economy basically under these kinds

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Speaker 1: of conditions. And how are families with kids reacting to this?

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Speaker 1: What do what do they want to see happen in

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Speaker 1: the fall? You know, it's interesting about this is a

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Speaker 1: lot of parents really want school to come back, right,

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Speaker 1: and they want to be able to kind of resume

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Speaker 1: a normal schedule. But there's some really major concerns about

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Speaker 1: safety here obviously, and whether schools can appropriately keep kids safe.

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Speaker 1: At the same time, you know, two or three days

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Speaker 1: a week in the classroom doesn't really solve many working

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Speaker 1: parents problems, right, They still have to figure out child

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Speaker 1: care for other days of the week. I mean, many

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Speaker 1: working parents have been really in a state of very

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Speaker 1: difficult circumstances during this time. And I think you know

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Speaker 1: a lot of people probably agree that kids need to

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Speaker 1: go back to school. The question is how. But children,

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Speaker 1: as far as we know, are supposed to be largely

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Speaker 1: shielded from the virus, right, So what is the science

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Speaker 1: on that. How much danger would kids be in going

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Speaker 1: back to schools? This is kind of the ten million

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Speaker 1: dollar questions, So it's still really mysterious what the role

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Speaker 1: of children is in all of this. We know children

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Speaker 1: have become infected with COVID nineteen, but it's not as

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Speaker 1: frequent as adults become ill with this disease. And there's

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Speaker 1: some contradictory research on this subject. So some have found,

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Speaker 1: you know, school aged children seem to be less contagious,

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Speaker 1: but there's also another study that found, you know, basically

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Speaker 1: the opposite, that kids may be as contagious as adults.

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Speaker 1: I think it's worth noting there's an international perspective on

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Speaker 1: this as well. There are countries that have reopened schools

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Speaker 1: successfully without seeing coronavirus cases you know, rides significantly. But

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Speaker 1: the consensus on that is really that they did that

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Speaker 1: by following safety precautions, by limiting class sizes, by taking

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Speaker 1: other kinds of mitigation steps. Reopening schools obviously has major

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Speaker 1: implications for the economy, not just for working parents, but

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Speaker 1: also for their kids educational gains. So what are the

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Speaker 1: experts saying about that? How are they kind of sifting

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Speaker 1: through all of these difficult choices. The issue here is

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Speaker 1: that the stakes are sort of pretty high no matter

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Speaker 1: what you do. Right, Um, we know that working parents

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Speaker 1: have had to manage both their workdays and childcare and

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Speaker 1: it's forced really difficult situations for families. There are questions

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Speaker 1: about whether it's pushing working mothers out of the workforce

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Speaker 1: because it's just too impossible to be caring for toddlers

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Speaker 1: during the day and also managing a demanding full time job.

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Speaker 1: But then on the other hand, you have this question

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Speaker 1: about if children really aren't learning effectively during this time,

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Speaker 1: are they losing out on all of this education that

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Speaker 1: could basically further literally they're earning potential. There's the stakes

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Speaker 1: are high. It's not just K through twelve schools, right,

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Speaker 1: Colleges and universities are also dealing with these issues. How

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Speaker 1: do college is plan to approach this? This has really

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Speaker 1: been the week of school, so we've seen not only

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Speaker 1: some of the sort of political tensions heat up between

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Speaker 1: the federal government and states and localities over you know,

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Speaker 1: whether school should reopen and how, but we've also seen

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Speaker 1: a number of universities come out this week with plans

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Speaker 1: as to how they will go back to school this fall. Um.

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Speaker 1: You know, there's a mix of plans that are emerging,

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Speaker 1: but most are opting for some form of in person

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Speaker 1: reopening and then a mix of you know, virtual and

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Speaker 1: in person classes or just a full in person reopening

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Speaker 1: with US. Some schools also turning to online classes again.

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Speaker 1: For instance, Rutgers has chosen to do most of its

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Speaker 1: classes online this fall, and I believe all of their

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Speaker 1: undergraduate classes online. You know, what's interesting is the amount

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Speaker 1: of variety and the lack of consensus here. You might expect,

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Speaker 1: given that universities have so much in common in terms

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Speaker 1: of challenges, that they might all be coming out with

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Speaker 1: the same kinds of plans, but that's just not what's

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Speaker 1: happening here. I think one expert I spoke to said,

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Speaker 1: people don't really know what the right thing is to

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Speaker 1: do here. In schools are coming with from very different

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Speaker 1: places in terms of resources, not just financial resources, but

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Speaker 1: also in terms of ability to do things like testing.

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Speaker 1: So if you have a hospital or a really big

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Speaker 1: research lab on campus, that's something you can leverage to

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Speaker 1: test your student body. But you know, if you're a

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Speaker 1: university or a college with that's public, that doesn't have

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Speaker 1: as much financial resources, that's really small. Those questions become

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Speaker 1: a lot more complicated. And when we look at states

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Speaker 1: like Florida, Texas, California, sun Belt states that have had

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Speaker 1: these recent virus surges, how is that complicating this question

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Speaker 1: even further, are those places planning to reopen schools and

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Speaker 1: is that even a good idea. That's the thing about

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Speaker 1: this virus when you're planning for how to do things

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Speaker 1: during this time, that the target is always moving. So

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Speaker 1: we've heard, for instance, the Los Angeles Times reported that

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Speaker 1: Los Angeles County, which has been a big hot spot

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Speaker 1: right now, is looking at being able to shift online

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Speaker 1: depending on where the virus is, you know, come the fall,

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Speaker 1: and quoted the health Health Department director, They're saying, we

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Speaker 1: have to do this, we have to think about a

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Speaker 1: backup plan because of what's going on right now. In Florida,

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Speaker 1: there's plans to push ahead with an in person reopening

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Speaker 1: in the fall, but I spoke with a public health

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Speaker 1: expert there who said she was very worried about it

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Speaker 1: and she didn't see how it could possibly work and

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Speaker 1: was really concerned about planning for in person reopening. She said,

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Speaker 1: is something you can do for schools when the virus

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Speaker 1: is really in the background, Right when the virus isn't

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Speaker 1: making itself so present and so known in the community

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Speaker 1: is and infecting so many people, She said, doing something

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Speaker 1: like this when the virus is Uh, you know, breaking

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Speaker 1: records every day is not advisable, and I think there

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Speaker 1: are gonna be some really big questions about wheather reopening

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Speaker 1: schools if this does happen intensify as some of the

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Speaker 1: trends we've already been seeing. You know, you really wouldn't

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Speaker 1: want a young child going to school and maybe themselves

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Speaker 1: not getting sick, but bringing it home, the virus home

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Speaker 1: to their parents, to their maybe they live in a

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Speaker 1: house with elderly grandparents. That's a situation you wouldn't want

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Speaker 1: um and could add to to the damage that's already

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Speaker 1: been caused. So these are really difficult decisions. But you

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Speaker 1: know they wouldn't be so hard if the United States

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Speaker 1: was in a better place with this virus, If there

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Speaker 1: were more precautions, that there were more safety measures that

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Speaker 1: were well developed, like contact tracing, you might be able

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Speaker 1: to say, Okay, we have a better grip on this virus,

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Speaker 1: and we think we can go successfully back to school.

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Speaker 1: It seems so difficult because on the one hand, everyone's

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Speaker 1: really demanding answers about this right now. It's so important

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Speaker 1: for families and kids and education employees to understand kind

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Speaker 1: of how this is going to work. And yet at

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Speaker 1: the same time, any answers we come up with right

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Speaker 1: now could be thrown right out the window a month

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Speaker 1: or two from now. Yeah. I mean, if you think

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Speaker 1: about it, we've been making excruciating decisions for months now

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Speaker 1: about whether to open things, how to open things, whether

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Speaker 1: it made sense, whether it would come at the expense

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Speaker 1: of the health of the community. Right we're still making

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Speaker 1: those decisions now as the fall arrives. And you know,

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Speaker 1: you would have thought it might have gotten easier by now,

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Speaker 1: that we would have had more tools in our tool kit,

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Speaker 1: more ability to weigh the costs of some of these things.

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Speaker 1: But we're still we're still making these excruciating decisions. And

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Speaker 1: you know, I think what's becoming apparent is anyone who

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Speaker 1: thinks we're going to be in a much better place

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Speaker 1: in a couple of months should think about the experience

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Speaker 1: we've had in the last couple of months and wonder

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Speaker 1: if that's really going to be true. That was Emma

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Speaker 1: Court and that's it for our show for coverage of

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Speaker 1: the outbreak from bureaus around the world. Because at Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is

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Speaker 1: produced by Topor foreheads Jordan Gospore, Magnus Hendrickson, and Laura Carlston.

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