WEBVTT - Beating The Book: Warren Sharp, NFL Historical Schedule Inequality Analysis 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:11.760 Check it down, Man now down. Then it's the Beating 0:00:11.800 --> 0:00:16.119 the Book Podcast, Hill Alexander. Last week, Warren Sharp was 0:00:16.200 --> 0:00:18.840 kind enough to come on the show, as he does annually, 0:00:19.400 --> 0:00:21.880 to talk about strength of schedule in the upcoming National 0:00:21.920 --> 0:00:25.759 Football League season. He did that last week as per usual, 0:00:25.840 --> 0:00:29.360 We appreciate it, but Warren took it one step further 0:00:29.440 --> 0:00:35.199 this week. Uh. He did a study on historical NFL schedule. 0:00:35.360 --> 0:00:40.279 So something about his study into this upcoming season schedule 0:00:40.760 --> 0:00:44.279 sparked the thought and what it led to was, I 0:00:44.360 --> 0:00:48.040 believe the only such study done on the National Football 0:00:48.120 --> 0:00:51.760 League schedule historically speaking over the last decade. That was 0:00:51.800 --> 0:00:54.560 the sample size used. So, in other words, if you 0:00:54.600 --> 0:00:58.480 ever thought that a team that you root against always 0:00:58.480 --> 0:01:02.080 seems to get the best of it schedule wise, year 0:01:02.120 --> 0:01:04.600 to year, maybe you think your team gets the worst 0:01:04.600 --> 0:01:08.039 of it, this is the show for you. Might piss 0:01:08.080 --> 0:01:11.840 you off, might confirm a lot of your suspicions. Warren 0:01:12.200 --> 0:01:17.280 Sharp schedule analysis from a historical perspective on today's Beating 0:01:17.280 --> 0:01:25.520 the Book Podcast. Enjoy It's a numbers game with your 0:01:25.520 --> 0:01:31.520 host Ji Alexander too to believe in Adams, It is 0:01:31.560 --> 0:01:33.360 the numbers game right here at Visa, the Vega Stats 0:01:33.400 --> 0:01:36.600 in Information Network, the Sports Betting Network series EXEPT Channel 0:01:36.600 --> 0:01:39.160 two oh four, Visa dot Com, the VISAP food bo 0:01:39.200 --> 0:01:43.600 sling a Game plus first though this is tremendous. Last week, 0:01:44.120 --> 0:01:46.080 this gentleman was kind enough to come on the show 0:01:46.200 --> 0:01:49.440 to discuss, as he does every year with us, UH, 0:01:49.600 --> 0:01:53.480 the quirks of the upcoming NFL schedule, the handicapping angles, 0:01:53.520 --> 0:01:55.639 what team got the best of it, what teams didn't 0:01:56.240 --> 0:01:59.720 in any number of ways through different lenses. UH. He 0:01:59.800 --> 0:02:02.720 had decided to take this a step further in what 0:02:03.320 --> 0:02:05.440 I think it's fair to say could be some of 0:02:05.480 --> 0:02:09.240 the most impactful work he has ever done, taking this 0:02:09.280 --> 0:02:12.040 to another level, thinking beyond just the coming season, and 0:02:12.080 --> 0:02:14.720 saying to himself, Hey, wait a minute, I wonder if 0:02:14.760 --> 0:02:17.760 we looked back over time, have certain teams in the 0:02:17.880 --> 0:02:20.079 NFL gotten the best of it? Have certain teams gotten 0:02:20.080 --> 0:02:24.600 the worst of it with scheduling UH specifics and we 0:02:24.680 --> 0:02:27.440 bring back on the show once again to discuss it. UH. 0:02:27.480 --> 0:02:30.160 The author of this report, it's Warren Sharp from Sharp 0:02:30.160 --> 0:02:32.600 Football Stats and Sharp Football Analysis. Good morning to your 0:02:32.639 --> 0:02:36.280 warrn man. How you doing Hey, good morning, Gail. I'm 0:02:36.280 --> 0:02:39.960 doing well. You, I'm doing very well. And that's not 0:02:40.160 --> 0:02:43.680 a understatement, is it that this could be if it's 0:02:43.760 --> 0:02:48.560 latched onto some of the most impactful stuff you've done. No, 0:02:48.760 --> 0:02:52.600 I definitely believe so every type of study, and I've 0:02:52.639 --> 0:02:56.240 done a lot of different studies over my years. You know, 0:02:56.360 --> 0:02:58.919 sometimes you're just looking at analysis. You're looking at on 0:02:59.080 --> 0:03:01.800 covering factor. Is they're going to going to matter in 0:03:01.840 --> 0:03:06.240 a particular game that you're trying to handicap or analyze 0:03:06.600 --> 0:03:09.799 for a team. But in this case, this goes well 0:03:09.840 --> 0:03:14.000 beyond that. This gets down the root of this is 0:03:14.919 --> 0:03:19.000 equality and a level playing field. And what the NFL 0:03:19.200 --> 0:03:24.360 strives to project with everything that it says publicly, and 0:03:24.480 --> 0:03:29.320 that is competitive balance. And in order to have competitive balance, 0:03:29.800 --> 0:03:34.480 there has to be equality in scheduling. Now we'll we'll 0:03:34.520 --> 0:03:38.440 dive into all the details of it as you navigate 0:03:38.520 --> 0:03:40.680 us through this, but the bottom line here is that 0:03:41.080 --> 0:03:45.360 it has become painfully clear to me in this study 0:03:45.560 --> 0:03:49.320 of the last ten years of NFL scheduling that there 0:03:49.520 --> 0:03:53.840 is a significant lack of competitive balance with which the 0:03:53.960 --> 0:04:00.480 NFL ivies up the schedule and put certain teams in 0:04:00.760 --> 0:04:04.920 difficult situations. While I don't want to say, pandering, but 0:04:05.120 --> 0:04:09.240 certainly benefiting other teams. And it's not just the flight 0:04:09.320 --> 0:04:11.720 gap between the halves and the have not. There are 0:04:11.760 --> 0:04:14.920 some major issues going on here with the schedule. Yeah, 0:04:15.040 --> 0:04:16.960 it occurs to me this is going to make certain 0:04:17.000 --> 0:04:20.920 fan bases really angry, and certain ones are gonna try 0:04:20.960 --> 0:04:23.000 to keep this quiet, like, oh, we've got the best. 0:04:23.040 --> 0:04:26.039 But before we launch into it, one question that I've 0:04:26.040 --> 0:04:29.680 been curious about since reading this. What was the seed 0:04:29.800 --> 0:04:32.200 that sparked this for you? Was there something you saw 0:04:32.240 --> 0:04:34.719 in this upcoming schedule where you were like, huh, that 0:04:34.839 --> 0:04:39.800 seems to happen more than just this one time. Yeah, 0:04:39.880 --> 0:04:43.680 great question. Um. What I did was I first started 0:04:43.680 --> 0:04:48.360 looking at the Baltimore Ravens and their Monday night football games, 0:04:48.440 --> 0:04:51.440 and I looked back since two thousand and eight, like, 0:04:51.600 --> 0:04:55.559 what the heck? They They've played fourteen Monday night games, 0:04:55.600 --> 0:04:59.520 but only two of them were in Baltimore. Twelve of 0:04:59.520 --> 0:05:01.359 their game have been on the road. I was like, this, 0:05:01.640 --> 0:05:04.320 this does not seem very fair because Monday Night provides 0:05:04.360 --> 0:05:07.400 such a big home field advantage. You know, Monday Night 0:05:07.520 --> 0:05:09.800 tends to with the crowd and it's got all day 0:05:09.880 --> 0:05:12.280 to get ready for this game, you would think the 0:05:12.279 --> 0:05:15.320 crowd noise and everything feeding into it is strong. Now, 0:05:15.360 --> 0:05:18.440 the one thing that um that so that sparked me 0:05:18.640 --> 0:05:24.520 researching uh, different primetime situations because definitely Thursday night, while 0:05:24.560 --> 0:05:27.040 it's not necessarily the crowd noise, it's the lack of 0:05:27.160 --> 0:05:31.600 rest that makes Thursday night games more unfair to the 0:05:31.680 --> 0:05:34.320 road team. And then that kind of got me started 0:05:34.360 --> 0:05:38.479 thinking in the process of what are the most unfair 0:05:38.520 --> 0:05:41.880 situations that are going to benefit a team at home 0:05:42.200 --> 0:05:44.440 hosting a game. What are the most difficult things for 0:05:44.480 --> 0:05:46.800 a road team to have to deal with, whether it's 0:05:47.040 --> 0:05:49.039 you know, the prep time, the lack of rest, the 0:05:49.080 --> 0:05:52.560 back to backs, um, those types of things. But the 0:05:52.600 --> 0:05:55.440 one thing that I'll note when we talk about this study, 0:05:55.640 --> 0:05:59.520 just big picture wise, that Baltimore got me started on 0:06:00.120 --> 0:06:03.920 the notion that it's wrong for us to look at 0:06:04.400 --> 0:06:08.040 the results, the win loss results and say, well, see, 0:06:08.080 --> 0:06:10.479 look this scheduling spot. Yeah, it doesn't sound great, but 0:06:10.520 --> 0:06:13.359 it really doesn't matter because overall it's it's only like 0:06:13.360 --> 0:06:16.560 a one percent difference, So it's it's relatively irrelevant, right, 0:06:16.760 --> 0:06:21.040 Like Baltimore could have been in those twelve road Monday 0:06:21.160 --> 0:06:23.840 night games, right, they're a good team. They ended up 0:06:23.839 --> 0:06:25.920 winning a lot of those games. That does not mean 0:06:25.960 --> 0:06:29.200 that it is fair to send Baltimore on the road 0:06:29.360 --> 0:06:32.400 for twelve out of fourteen Monday Night games, whereas other 0:06:32.480 --> 0:06:35.440 teams in the last decade are hosting, you know, six 0:06:35.480 --> 0:06:37.719 Monday Night games and going on the road for just one. 0:06:38.160 --> 0:06:40.200 There needs to be a little bit of a balance. 0:06:40.440 --> 0:06:42.960 And if you're going to stick certain teams on Monday 0:06:43.040 --> 0:06:46.080 Night for Thursday night because of the TV audience. And 0:06:46.120 --> 0:06:49.200 I completely understand that you don't want Jacksonville on there 0:06:49.240 --> 0:06:51.720 as much as you would want the Dallas Cowboys, are 0:06:51.760 --> 0:06:54.520 the New York Giants or the New England Patriots. I 0:06:54.680 --> 0:06:58.720 understand that that's perfectly fine. The issue is are you 0:06:58.839 --> 0:07:00.599 going to give them a little bit of balance in 0:07:00.680 --> 0:07:03.120 terms of home versus road splits. You can't allow one 0:07:03.160 --> 0:07:05.960 of these teams to host all these Thursday games wires another. 0:07:06.320 --> 0:07:08.320 You want them on Thursdays, but you make them travel 0:07:08.320 --> 0:07:10.120 all the time. It's just not fair. There needs to 0:07:10.120 --> 0:07:14.600 be more balanced there. Gil Alexander Warren Sharp right here 0:07:14.680 --> 0:07:16.880 on a numbers game at Visa. These Sports Betting Network 0:07:16.920 --> 0:07:19.840 series XM Channel two O four, you can follow Warren 0:07:20.000 --> 0:07:23.520 at Sharp Football on Twitter, one of the great Twitter 0:07:23.600 --> 0:07:27.680 feeds you could possibly follow for all things NFL. Okay, 0:07:27.760 --> 0:07:30.640 so for those just landing here, let's reset it. So 0:07:30.760 --> 0:07:33.400 this is beyond last week. Warren was here, we looked 0:07:33.400 --> 0:07:37.400 ahead at the schedule that's coming up. This is perhaps 0:07:37.440 --> 0:07:41.080 his most impactful work, certainly among his most impactful work. 0:07:41.400 --> 0:07:44.320 It's a historical look over the past decade, at least 0:07:44.560 --> 0:07:47.560 took it that far back. Uh As to have there 0:07:47.600 --> 0:07:51.720 been any patterns? Have there been any teams over time 0:07:52.040 --> 0:07:54.520 that have gotten the worst of it with scheduling? And 0:07:54.600 --> 0:07:56.240 which teams have gotten the best of it? Now, you've 0:07:56.280 --> 0:08:00.520 broken this down into a couple of major scheduling avarreables, 0:08:00.640 --> 0:08:04.480 one of which is preparation and rest. The other is 0:08:04.840 --> 0:08:07.240 prime time games. And then you went even further than that, 0:08:07.360 --> 0:08:10.520 Lauren and you you talked about things like negated by 0:08:10.680 --> 0:08:14.000 weeks and four games in seventeen days. We'll get to that. 0:08:14.120 --> 0:08:18.480 Let's start with the notion of preparation and rest. What 0:08:18.520 --> 0:08:23.600 were some of your findings in that category? Right? So 0:08:23.800 --> 0:08:25.920 what I did is I I tried to figure out 0:08:26.120 --> 0:08:28.640 which of the situations Because the NFL does not control 0:08:28.720 --> 0:08:33.240 who you play that's set on a rocational schedule, it's determined. 0:08:33.320 --> 0:08:36.480 Fourteen of your sixteen games are determined years in advance. 0:08:36.559 --> 0:08:40.200 You'll just come to that schedule and it's three. These 0:08:40.200 --> 0:08:42.200 are who you're going to These are the divisions that 0:08:42.200 --> 0:08:44.160 you're going to be playing, and the teams that are 0:08:44.160 --> 0:08:46.320 going to bepelling. People don't realize that that's the side 0:08:46.360 --> 0:08:49.360 of years in advance, and it just rotates. And two 0:08:49.440 --> 0:08:52.720 of your sixteen games are determined based upon where you finished. 0:08:52.720 --> 0:08:55.600 So a fourth place finish in your division gives you 0:08:55.679 --> 0:08:59.520 other fourth place fourth place opponents. Um, So all of 0:08:59.600 --> 0:09:03.080 that is like predetermined. The NFL can't control that. What 0:09:03.160 --> 0:09:07.040 the NFL can control is what time and when you 0:09:07.080 --> 0:09:10.240 play these teams. And so when you're looking at it 0:09:10.240 --> 0:09:14.560 from a preparation and rest perspective, it's important to note 0:09:15.200 --> 0:09:19.280 certain factors. Number one, do you have more rest than 0:09:19.320 --> 0:09:22.920 your opponent does? That helps you get your players ready 0:09:23.040 --> 0:09:26.920 closer to as well as your head coach and your 0:09:27.559 --> 0:09:30.800 you know, coordinators, more time to prepare. Are you playing 0:09:30.840 --> 0:09:33.800 short week road games very difficult to get ready and 0:09:34.000 --> 0:09:37.640 travel on less than a full week of rest. Are 0:09:37.679 --> 0:09:40.240 you playing off of a Monday night game or even 0:09:40.240 --> 0:09:42.600 a Sunday night game where which was on the road, 0:09:43.000 --> 0:09:45.280 because you may be playing at home on a Sunday, 0:09:45.320 --> 0:09:47.240 but if you just played I'm sorry, you may be 0:09:47.360 --> 0:09:49.920 playing on home on a Sunday, But if you just 0:09:49.960 --> 0:09:52.800 played Monday night on the road and you had to 0:09:52.800 --> 0:09:55.920 travel two time zones to get back home, your rest 0:09:55.960 --> 0:09:57.839 and your prep is going to be far different. And 0:09:57.880 --> 0:10:00.920 I've talked to some coaches inside the need to tell 0:10:00.960 --> 0:10:04.240 me the impact of that is definitely a factor and 0:10:04.280 --> 0:10:06.600 getting ready for that next Sunday, even if it's a 0:10:06.640 --> 0:10:09.640 home game. Um. And then negated bye weeks. Yeah, you 0:10:09.679 --> 0:10:12.640 get a bye. Everybody gets a buy. But did the 0:10:12.640 --> 0:10:14.640 opponent that you're playing out of your by have the 0:10:14.720 --> 0:10:17.640 same exact bye week? So while your team has had 0:10:17.640 --> 0:10:20.040 the chance to rest and your coaches have had extra 0:10:20.040 --> 0:10:22.840 time to prepare, you don't have an edge in that 0:10:23.120 --> 0:10:25.400 over your opponent. You may so, so it's not quite 0:10:25.440 --> 0:10:29.800 as significant. UM. Anyways, accumulating all of those things together, 0:10:29.880 --> 0:10:33.000 what I found was the teams that have had the 0:10:33.000 --> 0:10:37.840 worst luck the most shafted shafted teams in the league 0:10:38.080 --> 0:10:42.800 over last decade, or the Eagles, the Giants, the Colts, 0:10:43.440 --> 0:10:46.480 the Seahawks and the Bears. Those are the top five 0:10:47.200 --> 0:10:51.080 teams that have been screwed the most. And let's put 0:10:51.120 --> 0:10:54.880 some of these things into perspective. The Eagles have had 0:10:54.920 --> 0:10:59.400 to play forty four different teams that have had over 0:10:59.520 --> 0:11:03.880 seven days to prepare for them. The Jaguars, the team 0:11:03.920 --> 0:11:06.160 with the best dress situation, have only had to play 0:11:06.200 --> 0:11:08.720 twenty teams like that. So we're talking about the difference 0:11:08.760 --> 0:11:13.240 between forty four games with extra rest versus only twenty. 0:11:13.600 --> 0:11:16.680 That's a massive change. Again, I told you at the top, 0:11:16.760 --> 0:11:20.680 we're not talking about small inefficiencies. We're talking about major issues. 0:11:20.920 --> 0:11:23.440 A team like the Bears. The Bears have had to 0:11:23.440 --> 0:11:28.960 play sixteen games on the road with a short week 0:11:29.000 --> 0:11:32.040 of rest, and a team like the Lions have only 0:11:32.040 --> 0:11:35.960 played two. So the difference between sixteen of these games 0:11:35.960 --> 0:11:39.600 over ten years versus only two, that's a massive deal, 0:11:39.679 --> 0:11:42.240 a massive deal. A team like the Giants, who had 0:11:42.280 --> 0:11:45.760 the second worst situation, they've had to play twenty two 0:11:45.960 --> 0:11:50.920 games off of Monday night or Sunday night on the road. 0:11:50.960 --> 0:11:53.640 I already told you how that's difficult for teams getting 0:11:53.679 --> 0:11:56.240 ready the next week. Twenty two times they've played in 0:11:56.240 --> 0:12:00.000 that situation, the Arizona Cardos haven't played in that situation 0:12:00.000 --> 0:12:03.120 as at all, and in ten years they've never played. 0:12:03.160 --> 0:12:05.880 You've got one team dealing with it twenty two times. 0:12:05.920 --> 0:12:08.760 Another team hasn't dealt with it at all. This one 0:12:08.840 --> 0:12:12.160 is even crazier. The Cults the third work scheduling situation. 0:12:13.400 --> 0:12:17.719 They have dealt with six of ten bye weeks, right, 0:12:17.760 --> 0:12:20.800 you get one per year ten years, Six out of 0:12:20.840 --> 0:12:24.200 their ten have been negated. Their opponent has had a 0:12:24.280 --> 0:12:27.160 bye week the same exact week that they did, or 0:12:27.280 --> 0:12:29.920 a Thursday night game in one of the six situations 0:12:30.280 --> 0:12:35.760 to get a mini by heading into it. Half the 0:12:35.880 --> 0:12:39.120 league has had zero or one negated by weeks. The 0:12:39.200 --> 0:12:42.560 league average is only one point eight. Half the teams 0:12:42.840 --> 0:12:46.240 haven't even had this happened to him zero times and 0:12:46.320 --> 0:12:49.480 some only once. And we're talking about the Colts have 0:12:49.559 --> 0:12:51.880 had it happened to them six out of ten times. 0:12:52.160 --> 0:12:54.440 There is absolutely zero way, and this is why I'm 0:12:54.440 --> 0:12:56.400 saying this could be one of the most impactful things. 0:12:56.679 --> 0:13:00.520 There is no possible way if the focus on creating 0:13:00.520 --> 0:13:04.600 a schedule is competitive balanced, that the NFL has ever 0:13:04.720 --> 0:13:08.439 looked into any of this information, because if they did, 0:13:08.480 --> 0:13:13.840 they could not possibly rationalized. Giving a team negating six 0:13:13.880 --> 0:13:17.320 of their buys, whereas most league doesn't even have more 0:13:17.360 --> 0:13:20.280 than one negated. It's just completely unfair. So I don't 0:13:20.280 --> 0:13:23.240 think they've looked at any of this information. And let 0:13:23.240 --> 0:13:25.440 me just step in there too, because the top two 0:13:25.440 --> 0:13:27.040 teams that you mentioned, by the way, this is again 0:13:27.120 --> 0:13:30.280 under the subcategory of rest. It's not an overall this 0:13:30.320 --> 0:13:32.440 is under rest. The teams that got the worst of it, 0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:35.839 Eagles and Giants, you make I think perhaps the best 0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:39.080 point of all here is that those are two teams 0:13:39.080 --> 0:13:42.360 in the same division. There's another team in that division 0:13:42.720 --> 0:13:47.000 who really gets the best of it, like completely on 0:13:47.040 --> 0:13:48.959 the other end, and this is not going to make 0:13:49.000 --> 0:13:52.800 people happy. Who is that team more? And yeah, the 0:13:52.880 --> 0:13:56.040 Dallas Cowboys America's team, so to speak, well, well, maybe 0:13:56.040 --> 0:13:59.960 you should recall them the NFL's team because the Dallas Cowboys, 0:14:00.000 --> 0:14:03.920 if you look at all overall schedule inequality over the 0:14:04.000 --> 0:14:08.760 last decade, the Cowboys have had the third most favorable 0:14:09.000 --> 0:14:13.440 schedule situations occur with their team, whereas if you look 0:14:13.480 --> 0:14:18.040 at the Giants, the Eagles, and the Redskins, those three 0:14:18.120 --> 0:14:21.920 teams all in the NFC East, have had bottom ten 0:14:22.440 --> 0:14:26.520 scheduled situations over the last decade so in the same 0:14:26.520 --> 0:14:30.160 time frame, yet one team top five, three teams bottom ten, 0:14:30.440 --> 0:14:32.720 two of which are actually bottom five in the in 0:14:32.760 --> 0:14:36.040 the Eagles and the Giants. That how can that possibly 0:14:36.120 --> 0:14:40.600 be fair? I mean things that are benefiting the Dallas Cowboys. Obviously, 0:14:40.640 --> 0:14:47.160 we know that they host Thursday on Thanksgiving, and inherently 0:14:47.600 --> 0:14:49.520 for them to do that every single year, I know 0:14:49.600 --> 0:14:53.640 there's tradition associated with it, but it's patently unfair. The 0:14:53.720 --> 0:14:56.600 home field edge to not have to travel on a 0:14:56.640 --> 0:15:00.800 Thursday game is massive. There's not a scheduling edge in 0:15:00.840 --> 0:15:04.400 the league that's better than hosting a Thursday game, especially 0:15:04.400 --> 0:15:06.440 one not at Thursday night. Right, We're talking about the 0:15:06.480 --> 0:15:09.840 Thursday afternoon game. It's so strong, and they get that 0:15:09.920 --> 0:15:14.120 every single year. Now, I understand that the NFL, if 0:15:14.160 --> 0:15:16.280 they don't want to part with tradition, they want to 0:15:16.320 --> 0:15:18.800 allow them to keep doing this, even though it's unfair. 0:15:19.120 --> 0:15:21.680 You have to go the other way with the Cowboys schedule. 0:15:21.960 --> 0:15:24.840 You have to figure out what are the worst scheduling 0:15:24.880 --> 0:15:27.240 spots of the team's face and how can we put 0:15:27.320 --> 0:15:29.800 the Cowboys into a couple of those each year to 0:15:29.960 --> 0:15:33.400 offset the edge that they gain from hosting a Thursday 0:15:33.520 --> 0:15:36.560 night game. What the NFL tried to do then is 0:15:36.680 --> 0:15:39.720 they said, okay, we will the last few years, we'll 0:15:39.760 --> 0:15:44.240 send Dallas on the road the Thursday after Thanksgiving so 0:15:44.320 --> 0:15:47.360 that they have to play a road Thursday game, not 0:15:47.640 --> 0:15:50.680 realizing that it's not the fact that you're playing on 0:15:50.720 --> 0:15:53.800 the road in this primetime game, it's the prep that 0:15:53.880 --> 0:15:56.200 you have leading into it. And if you have a 0:15:56.240 --> 0:15:58.600 full week of prep because you played Thursday the week 0:15:58.680 --> 0:16:02.320 before at home, then you're not really impacted anymore than 0:16:02.360 --> 0:16:05.840 you would be for a regular road game to travel. 0:16:05.960 --> 0:16:07.760 The issue is you've got to stick them on a 0:16:07.880 --> 0:16:11.200 road Thursday game when they've just played a Sunday game, 0:16:11.400 --> 0:16:13.680 And if you're not going to do that, then you 0:16:13.720 --> 0:16:16.360 have to figure out other spots where you can kind 0:16:16.360 --> 0:16:22.000 of negatively benefit their schedule. Um. And it's just these 0:16:22.000 --> 0:16:25.520 types of things can be adjusted. And one thing I'll 0:16:25.560 --> 0:16:28.640 throw in here, Gil is that I've been asked questions, well, 0:16:28.720 --> 0:16:31.440 could the NFL make some adjustments so that if your 0:16:31.480 --> 0:16:36.240 schedule is real favorable in then like the schedule, they 0:16:36.240 --> 0:16:38.400 can do some things to make that less favorable. And 0:16:38.520 --> 0:16:43.400 my response is absolutely not. You can't have the schedule 0:16:43.680 --> 0:16:47.480 completely favor a team and then hurt a team because 0:16:47.880 --> 0:16:51.280 so much on a year to year basis is what's 0:16:51.320 --> 0:16:53.360 the perception of this player based on what he just 0:16:53.400 --> 0:16:56.160 did last year, what the coaches are doing, and if 0:16:56.200 --> 0:16:59.080 you've got teams that are having far less rest, that 0:16:59.160 --> 0:17:03.400 impacts their in three health injuries can affect careers. You 0:17:03.480 --> 0:17:06.200 have to do the best you possibly can to keep 0:17:06.280 --> 0:17:09.680 a schedule within the same season as balanced as possible 0:17:09.720 --> 0:17:12.679 across all thirty two teams. And I know you can't 0:17:13.080 --> 0:17:17.440 account for travel, right because the schedules predetermined years in advance. 0:17:17.480 --> 0:17:19.359 So if a team in the West Coast has to 0:17:19.359 --> 0:17:21.480 go out to the East Coast a bunch of times 0:17:21.520 --> 0:17:23.480 in a certain year, it is what it is. The 0:17:23.560 --> 0:17:25.679 league is doing a better job. We talked about this 0:17:25.800 --> 0:17:28.960 last time around about allowing them to stay out on 0:17:29.000 --> 0:17:31.359 the East Coast and scheduling a couple of games back 0:17:31.359 --> 0:17:33.280 to back weeks so they don't have to travel back 0:17:33.280 --> 0:17:36.200 and forth across the country four different times. They only 0:17:36.240 --> 0:17:38.520 have to do it twice um for that for those 0:17:38.560 --> 0:17:41.880 couple of opponents. But you know, you can't account for that. 0:17:42.080 --> 0:17:44.639 But what you can account for is when you schedule 0:17:44.720 --> 0:17:47.639 these teams and how you're scheduling them. Um, and the 0:17:47.760 --> 0:17:50.000 NFL needs to do a lot better job to create 0:17:50.000 --> 0:17:52.879 the balance within the course of the season so that 0:17:52.960 --> 0:17:55.719 all thirty two teams have as fair a shot as 0:17:55.760 --> 0:18:00.159 possible at winning the championship each year. That is much 0:18:00.200 --> 0:18:02.760 an overarching key point to this. Also the point you 0:18:02.800 --> 0:18:05.640 made earlier warrant about for those listening who are like, Okay, well, 0:18:05.640 --> 0:18:07.200 those teams that got shafted, those teams that got the 0:18:07.200 --> 0:18:09.800 best of it, how did they perform? Too many variables 0:18:09.840 --> 0:18:12.720 to get into that. The process here is what matters, 0:18:12.960 --> 0:18:16.240 and the process is deeply flawed. Just to move this 0:18:16.280 --> 0:18:18.359 along war because we won't with this is so dense 0:18:18.440 --> 0:18:20.400 this study that we won't get to all of it here. 0:18:20.400 --> 0:18:23.080 But in terms of that category again, just a review, uh, 0:18:23.119 --> 0:18:26.200 talking about the notion of rest again. The teams that 0:18:26.280 --> 0:18:28.879 got the worst of it, the Eagles, Giants, Colt, Seahawks, 0:18:28.880 --> 0:18:31.040 and Bears. This is over the last decade. The teams 0:18:31.040 --> 0:18:36.320 that got the best of it Jaguars, Brown's, Panthers, Lions, Buccaneers. Uh. 0:18:36.440 --> 0:18:38.639 Didn't help a lot of those teams obviously, Just a 0:18:38.720 --> 0:18:42.080 quick review as far as prime time games are concerned. 0:18:42.119 --> 0:18:45.119 We have about three minutes here before the break. Uh, 0:18:45.160 --> 0:18:48.160 the teams that got the shaft in terms of primetime 0:18:48.320 --> 0:18:53.520 game scheduling, who would they be? Right? So you know 0:18:53.600 --> 0:18:57.560 the Cowboys are definitely in there. Um the Lions. Lions 0:18:57.600 --> 0:19:01.280 have not traveled for a Thursday game over the last decade, 0:19:01.680 --> 0:19:04.520 but they actually only ranked ninth in this because they 0:19:04.560 --> 0:19:07.879 haven't gotten affair shake on Monday night games. But the 0:19:07.920 --> 0:19:12.440 teams that have had the best, um most favorable thursd uh. Sorry, 0:19:12.480 --> 0:19:16.840 primetime scheduling basically comes down to whether you're hosting or 0:19:16.840 --> 0:19:20.199 traveling to these games. Um, the Cardinals number one, the 0:19:20.280 --> 0:19:24.879 Jaguars number two, the Cowboys number three, forty number four, 0:19:25.280 --> 0:19:28.480 and the Seahawks at number five. And then on the 0:19:28.520 --> 0:19:31.040 flip end, the teams that have been hurt the worst 0:19:31.080 --> 0:19:33.440 by prime time schedulings, who have had to play so 0:19:33.480 --> 0:19:36.320 many of these road games, the Colts number one, the 0:19:36.320 --> 0:19:40.760 Giants number two, the Texans number three, the Browns number four, 0:19:41.040 --> 0:19:45.320 and the Dolphins number five and just two get into 0:19:45.320 --> 0:19:48.359 the Colts. Okay, this is a team that's played. You know, 0:19:48.440 --> 0:19:51.119 you want something. The league sometimes wants good teams to 0:19:51.119 --> 0:19:53.120 play a lot of prime time games. It helps their 0:19:53.520 --> 0:19:58.800 marketing and dollar overall dollar h what they can command 0:19:59.359 --> 0:20:02.000 for these as in the TV deals, etcetera. So they 0:20:02.040 --> 0:20:04.280 put them on prime time twenty different games over the 0:20:04.359 --> 0:20:08.000 last decade. That's fine, but they've played fourteen of the 0:20:08.040 --> 0:20:11.280 twenty on the road and hosted only six. They've played 0:20:11.359 --> 0:20:14.920 seventy percent of their games on the road. Meanwhile, there's 0:20:14.960 --> 0:20:19.199 teams in the league that have hosted eleven of fourteen 0:20:19.359 --> 0:20:24.040 prime time games and so they've only played on the road. 0:20:24.080 --> 0:20:27.399 You just can't have disparity between the best and the 0:20:27.440 --> 0:20:30.280 worst in terms of the teams only go on the 0:20:30.359 --> 0:20:32.439 road twenty one percent time. This teams goes on the 0:20:32.520 --> 0:20:36.160 road seventy percent of the time. And I know there's 0:20:36.359 --> 0:20:39.400 teams around the league who have been frustrated for years 0:20:39.880 --> 0:20:42.960 with the lack of giving teams prime time games and 0:20:43.119 --> 0:20:46.440 making them travel. And the Colts, for example, this year, 0:20:46.600 --> 0:20:48.800 they only were in one prime time game. Guess what 0:20:48.960 --> 0:20:51.480 it is. It's on Thursday, and it's on the road. 0:20:51.760 --> 0:20:53.640 That's the only game they've been given. I haven't even 0:20:53.640 --> 0:20:56.879 included that in this study because this looks at what 0:20:57.040 --> 0:21:00.600 has actually happened in the past decade. But they're a 0:21:00.600 --> 0:21:03.199 team that it's only getting worse for them, you know, 0:21:03.560 --> 0:21:08.160 in the coming year. This, I mean, this is so 0:21:08.160 --> 0:21:11.760 so interesting, Warren. And it's one of these things too 0:21:12.280 --> 0:21:14.240 that as I'm listening to you and as I read 0:21:14.280 --> 0:21:16.000 the piece that you did on this and by the way, 0:21:16.040 --> 0:21:18.119 those who want to read the piece can go to 0:21:18.280 --> 0:21:21.080 Warren's Twitter at sharp Football. He links to it there. 0:21:21.240 --> 0:21:23.680 That's probably the easiest way to get to it. It's 0:21:23.680 --> 0:21:25.479 one of these things where when you hear it, when 0:21:25.520 --> 0:21:28.520 you read it, you're like, why has this not been 0:21:28.560 --> 0:21:33.080 done before? Like why, Like it's so obvious right in retrospect, 0:21:33.160 --> 0:21:37.520 I'm just like, this is so smart to have done. Now. 0:21:37.560 --> 0:21:40.120 I hope people listening understand what we've gone through. Here 0:21:40.240 --> 0:21:44.520 is the category of preparation, uh and rest and the 0:21:44.560 --> 0:21:47.600 category of prime time games. When we come back from 0:21:47.600 --> 0:21:50.000 the break, we're gonna throw both of those into the mix, 0:21:50.160 --> 0:21:53.720 and Warren will give the five teams that have benefited 0:21:53.760 --> 0:21:56.959 most overall from the schedule the last ten years and 0:21:57.000 --> 0:22:00.160 the five teams that have gotten screwed the most by 0:22:00.160 --> 0:22:03.080 the schedule overall the last ten years. We're gonna throw 0:22:03.160 --> 0:22:05.600 basically everything we've just talked about in the mix, and 0:22:05.640 --> 0:22:08.320 I hear you everybody who ates the Cowboys, I mean 0:22:08.359 --> 0:22:10.080 that is an overriding theme in all this. I know 0:22:10.119 --> 0:22:12.040 they're going to show up in the top five of 0:22:12.080 --> 0:22:16.360 teams that benefited the most. And perhaps most important, or 0:22:16.480 --> 0:22:19.119 just as important as all of that, the notion of 0:22:19.160 --> 0:22:24.399 injuries in the NFL. Is there correlation between these scheduling quirks, 0:22:24.440 --> 0:22:26.640 who's benefited the most, who's gotten the worst of it? 0:22:27.760 --> 0:22:31.239 And injuries with teams? This perhaps the most fascinating thing 0:22:31.280 --> 0:22:33.119