Speaker 1: I miss a green, for example, I'm already upset. When
Speaker 1: I find my ball in the bunker, I'm really upset.
Speaker 1: And when I find my ball.
Speaker 2: In a fried egg Friday egg, the dreaded Frida Egg Friday,
Speaker 2: Frida Egg Egg, Frida Egg Bride Egg Lie, I'm about ready.
Speaker 1: To run off of the course.
Speaker 3: Ladies and gentlemen, Welcome back to another edition of the
Speaker 3: Frida Egg Podcast. We are here tonight with the legendary
Speaker 3: Polly from Polly's Picks on the website.
Speaker 4: We're going to do a little bit of a.
Speaker 3: Breakdown of the players who to expect to play well
Speaker 3: at this week's PGA.
Speaker 1: Polly, welcome on, Thanks Andy for having me.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's been, uh been a good year for you.
Speaker 4: You got eight winners this year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, eight winners.
Speaker 2: Almost had number nine in Canada over there. Yeah, hope
Speaker 2: you'll pick them nine this week though.
Speaker 3: Yeah, hopefully we'll get we'll get some people some good
Speaker 3: advice on who to pick for their one and done leagues,
Speaker 3: their their office pools and DraftKings of course, So.
Speaker 4: Let's get into it. Uh.
Speaker 3: Cole hollis the host of this week's PGA, and it's
Speaker 3: undergone some pretty extensive changes since last year's Wells Fargo.
Speaker 4: Completely new first four holes. First hole.
Speaker 3: I guess it's like five twenty five uphill, really long
Speaker 3: haul dirt. Mcgert was complaining today that he hit driver
Speaker 3: three wood and he was still short on one. New
Speaker 3: grass in the greens, new bunker, sand Uh, PAULI, what
Speaker 3: do you expect out of the new look?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's definitely gonna be a little bit
Speaker 1: different than the years past.
Speaker 2: It's gonna play very long considering that, I mean, I
Speaker 2: believe it's around par seventy one and about seventy over
Speaker 2: seventy four hundred yards, so it's definitely gonna be looking
Speaker 2: towards some of the guys that hit the ball pretty long.
Speaker 2: And then one of the things, as you mentioned, was
Speaker 2: they went ahead and redid their greens recently. So if
Speaker 2: you all the way back to what they had four
Speaker 2: twenty thirteen, you might remember that they had issues with
Speaker 2: some of the pros complaining about the conditions of the greens,
Speaker 2: and after that they went and changed from bent grass
Speaker 2: over to bermuda, and they had issued those greens the
Speaker 2: last couple years as well, weren't as pure as they
Speaker 2: would have liked, so about a year ago they went
Speaker 2: ahead and changed it to grass called Champions Ultra Door Fermuda,
Speaker 2: and it's become very popular last couple of years.
Speaker 1: It's kind of a genetically modified turf.
Speaker 2: And some other tour events have had like TPC Southwind
Speaker 2: in Memphis, Austin Country Club, TPC San Antonio, the host
Speaker 2: of Leer Texas Open Seminal Golf Club in Florida. That
Speaker 2: some guys have played at some of the Robert Trent
Speaker 2: Jones courses in Alabama, So it's very prevalent and some
Speaker 2: of the top players on tour, you know, do put
Speaker 2: better on miss grass than what was previous.
Speaker 3: Kind of off course, it's uh, you know, making making
Speaker 3: a couple extra press around can be a big difference.
Speaker 4: I've also heard that the rough is.
Speaker 3: You know, extremely healthy, Like you're saying, like six inches
Speaker 3: of rough around there, so it could be you know
Speaker 3: a little bit more of a premium on finding the fairways.
Speaker 1: Definitely, definitely.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's gonna be all based upon guys gaining strokes
Speaker 2: off the tea this week, whether it be by distance
Speaker 2: and accuracy, you know, kind of the guys like you know,
Speaker 2: Charlie Hoffman a guy who may not necessarily kill it
Speaker 2: off the tea, but e's it far enough and HiT's
Speaker 2: it accurate to where you know they're not hitting, you know,
Speaker 2: like like McGirt hitting the super long irons or three
Speaker 2: woods or multiple drivers in the par fours.
Speaker 3: There there has been kind of a factor in the majors,
Speaker 3: but maybe not this one. I love Hoffman this week too.
Speaker 3: He's just in such good form. Obviously, third place last week,
Speaker 3: second place at the Canadian Open, and then you know,
Speaker 3: in the majors he's been kind of nails.
Speaker 4: He was in the.
Speaker 3: Final group of the Masters, top ten at the US Open,
Speaker 3: and another top twenty at the Open Championship.
Speaker 1: Definitely, definitely.
Speaker 5: So as far as weather, you know, when you start,
Speaker 5: why don't you walk us through kind of how you
Speaker 5: go about making your picks and what you're thinking about
Speaker 5: this week in terms of the weather and strategy.
Speaker 1: Sure, I was gonna walk through a little bit.
Speaker 2: So generally I'm on Sunday and Monday before the tournament week,
Speaker 2: I'll go through and just kind of look at pastors
Speaker 2: to the golf course trying to see who has and
Speaker 2: form at the golf course, and also looked the last
Speaker 2: couple of weeks to see, hey, who's been playing good?
Speaker 2: You know, is there anybody that's just writing a heater
Speaker 2: coming into the tournament here that I'm gonna want in
Speaker 2: a roster and what it's in draft kings or one
Speaker 2: and done leagues, And then try to look at the
Speaker 2: prior years events just to try to isolate what stats
Speaker 2: some of the players succeeded at they were near the top.
Speaker 1: So like evidently with Quil Howell.
Speaker 2: With it being a long golf horse and with the
Speaker 2: rough being up, we're any guys that can hit it
Speaker 2: long off the tee but still keep it in play.
Speaker 2: So that's gonna be and that's and that's the reason
Speaker 2: why you've had guys like Roy mcroy's actually killed Quil
Speaker 2: Hollow and the reason why is he's super long off
Speaker 2: the tee and when he has his driver going, he's
Speaker 2: almost unbeatable.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that being wrong is such a benefit
Speaker 3: when that roughs up, too, because if you find trouble
Speaker 3: and you're really long, you've all of a sudden got
Speaker 3: a short iron in instead of having to hit like
Speaker 3: a four iron out of the rough. And that's where
Speaker 3: it just kills short hitters like you know, is Zach
Speaker 3: Johnson when he when he misses the fairway and he's
Speaker 3: gonna miss a fairway, a couple of fairways, he just
Speaker 3: he's he's hitting a four iron out that are instead
Speaker 3: of a guy like Rory who's hitting a nine iron exactly.
Speaker 2: And if you look at some of the other courses
Speaker 2: that have had this similar grass in the greens that
Speaker 2: this champions altraed Door Fermida, it usually ends up being
Speaker 2: really firm and fast. So if we looked at courses
Speaker 2: like we've had done a T TPC San Antonio for
Speaker 2: Valero Texas Open, a lot of the guys that top
Speaker 2: the leaderboard there are guys that hit the ball long
Speaker 2: off the tee. Because they're having shorter irons into the greens,
Speaker 2: they're able to hold it the same as true in Memphis.
Speaker 2: We've seen guys like Daniel Berger, Tony Fino, Charlie Hoffman,
Speaker 2: Brooks Koepka, guys that are able to drive it far
Speaker 2: enough downer to where they're hitting wedges and able to
Speaker 2: hold that green as opposed to hitting suthern irons in
Speaker 2: the green.
Speaker 1: And I'm expecting the same thing happened this week.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think this this week is distance will be huge.
Speaker 3: So in terms of strategies, I think this is kind
Speaker 3: of an underrated aspect of fantasy leagues, is you know
Speaker 3: what what should be kind of different strategies for for DraftKings,
Speaker 3: whether it be you're in a tournament or like okay,
Speaker 3: a fifty to fifty league, and then also for your
Speaker 3: one and done league, you know, if you're chasing, you
Speaker 3: know what are you looking for? And if you're kind
Speaker 3: of at the top of your one in dun league,
Speaker 3: what are you you're looking to do? Is the playoffs
Speaker 3: come around the corner.
Speaker 1: Sure, I'll try to talk about the one in dun
Speaker 1: leagues first.
Speaker 2: If you're near the top of your one in Dune
Speaker 2: league and you still have Roy McRoy available, you should be.
Speaker 1: Playing him this week.
Speaker 2: And I'm the reason I'm guessing the reason you kept
Speaker 2: him all the way through this year is to play
Speaker 2: him for the PGA because you know he's good.
Speaker 1: At quill Hollow.
Speaker 2: If you're not near the top of your league, or
Speaker 2: you're maybe fifth sixth place and you want to try
Speaker 2: to leap rogging people out of you, you're obviously gonna
Speaker 2: want to try to fade Rory and maybe go down
Speaker 2: to a second tier player that you still have left
Speaker 2: from the bank. Whoever then may be maybe maybe a
Speaker 2: Daniel Berger or maybe even a Phil Mickelson or somebody
Speaker 2: there who may be very low owned in your league.
Speaker 2: Maybe one or two people may have them, and if
Speaker 2: he wins, you happen to leave rogular players.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's the position I find myself in because I
Speaker 3: haven't been using your picks, have been trying to use
Speaker 3: my own.
Speaker 2: And then in terms of the DraftKings strategy, I mean,
Speaker 2: it's kind of broken down into two different two different types.
Speaker 2: So whenever we have people usually refer to them as
Speaker 2: cash games, meaning whether they're double ups or even sometimes
Speaker 2: triple ups or head to heads kind of where you know,
Speaker 2: roughly a third more than a third of the field
Speaker 2: gets paid. You know, double ups, it's forty five percent.
Speaker 2: Head to heads, you know obviously one out two. When
Speaker 2: when you have those type of tournaments or games, you're
Speaker 2: gonna want to be a little bit more conservative in
Speaker 2: your picks. You're gonna want guys that are gonna a
Speaker 2: little more consistent and make cuts versus guys that are
Speaker 2: gonna be a little bit more high up side. The
Speaker 2: easiest way to say that is you're gonna be picking
Speaker 2: the Matt Hoocher's, Adam Scott's, Paul Casey's of the world,
Speaker 2: the guys that make a lot of cuts and are
Speaker 2: going to be getting you a lot of top thirties,
Speaker 2: because in order to win in those events, you're only
Speaker 2: gonna have to finish in the top forty five percent
Speaker 2: for double ups, So if you have six all six
Speaker 2: guys make the cut, that's almost good to cash ninety
Speaker 2: percent of the weeks, and maybe some weeks five out
Speaker 2: of six or even four out of six, depending on
Speaker 2: where the ownership falls. Definitely, in those double ups, you
Speaker 2: see a lot of people on the same players you
Speaker 2: may see, I believe a couple weeks ago we having
Speaker 2: some guys that were own sixty by seven, sixty or
Speaker 2: seventy percent of the rosters had certain players just because
Speaker 2: there's such such values.
Speaker 3: So what do you expect a guy like Rory's ownership
Speaker 3: to be this week with everybody all over?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I expect him to be in terms
Speaker 2: of double ups, probably in that thirty percent range, only
Speaker 2: because his salary is so high. That means you're going
Speaker 2: to kind of go a little bit lower, and you
Speaker 2: may not be able to kind of stack your team
Speaker 2: with a bunch of value plays in that eight thousand
Speaker 2: dollars range, whereas obviously you have strategy and the other
Speaker 2: end of the spectrum. For tournaments, I would think Rory
Speaker 2: is going to be roughly around maybe thirty percent known.
Speaker 2: It obviously made different for tournaments. For example, this week,
Speaker 2: you're gonna see a lot of the players wanting to
Speaker 2: choose guys maybe like Haidaki Matziyama because he won last week,
Speaker 2: and I believe when DraftKings is you know, in the
Speaker 2: mid ten thousand range, so you're gonna see him be
Speaker 2: highly owned. You're gonna look at you know, people are
Speaker 2: obviously going to be on Speed based on how he's been,
Speaker 2: how he's been playing, you know, trying to get the
Speaker 2: Grand Slam.
Speaker 4: Here.
Speaker 1: People are obviously on Rory.
Speaker 2: So you try to see, is what guy up there
Speaker 2: is not going to be as high owned and you
Speaker 2: may be able to get him at a reduced ownership
Speaker 2: in a tournament. And that's kind of a way where
Speaker 2: you know, you can distinguish yourself and have the ability
Speaker 2: to you know, to win a big if you're in
Speaker 2: a big draftings tournament such as like they have the
Speaker 2: Millionaire Maker this week. So an example of a guy
Speaker 2: you may want to play there may not necessarily be
Speaker 2: the best play. But let's say if you have Jason
Speaker 2: Day at ten four hundred, he's one hundred dollars less
Speaker 2: than Handaki Matziama, you're gonna have twenty to thirty percent
Speaker 2: of people on Matsiyama. You're gonna have eight to ten
Speaker 2: percent maybe on Day, maybe even less. But we do
Speaker 2: know that Jason Day can win major championships, and he did.
Speaker 1: He did show a little bit.
Speaker 2: Last week that hey, he can actually you know, he's
Speaker 2: broken out of his slumpus a little bit. I mean,
Speaker 2: obviously he's still has some lingering injuries. But on a
Speaker 2: golf course where you have did it long and you know,
Speaker 2: if a guy that's a hot driver, watch out, that
Speaker 2: could be Jason Day. And you know, if he happens
Speaker 2: to let's say you have he's only eight percent known,
Speaker 2: and you happen to have him in a lot of
Speaker 2: tournaments in your rosters, you're gonna be looking pretty good
Speaker 2: because you know you've posentially narrowed it down, knocked out
Speaker 2: ninety two percent of the field because they don't have
Speaker 2: Jason Day, Whereas if you have Hideki and Hideki does good,
Speaker 2: you still got to deal with thirty percent of the field.
Speaker 1: So it's definitely a little bit different.
Speaker 2: Strategy between between the cash games and double ups versus
Speaker 2: some of the bigger tournaments, especially like the Millionaire Maker.
Speaker 3: I think this is good advice too, for you know,
Speaker 3: your office pools and other things like where you know,
Speaker 3: going here a little bit against the grain if they
Speaker 3: do well, If if you're in a forty person pool
Speaker 3: or twenty person pool, you can you can make such
Speaker 3: big headway with just having a player that nobody else has.
Speaker 3: Like I'm a I'm in this like Majors draft every
Speaker 3: and it's we've got like thirty guys and every right picks.
Speaker 3: It's a snake draft. And I had the tenth pick
Speaker 3: or eleventh pick. And then I was sitting there looking
Speaker 3: at Justin Rose and Jason Day, and I picked Rose,
Speaker 3: and my buddy right behind me is like I got
Speaker 3: picked Day, right. I'm like, yeah, you gotta pick Day
Speaker 3: at twelve because like he's got such upside.
Speaker 4: And it's interesting. Rom is another name.
Speaker 3: I feel like people are out on Roum just because
Speaker 3: of his attitude, but he's been still playing so well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, he definitely has the ability there.
Speaker 2: It's just a matter of whether he can stay mentally
Speaker 2: strong enough, you know, for for four days, especially if
Speaker 2: it gets difficulty out there. He kind of gets hard
Speaker 2: on himself. I mean last week at Firestone, he played
Speaker 2: good for three rounds. Problem is the second round he
Speaker 2: shot in the high seventies and that kind of took
Speaker 2: him out of the tournament after he at least shot
Speaker 2: sixty seven the first day.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: So, of say the guys that are priced above nine
Speaker 3: thousand in DraftKings, say your bottom tier of this is
Speaker 3: justin Rose and then up to Speef at twelve thousand,
Speaker 3: who are kind of your three or four favorite guys
Speaker 3: from in here?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean so obviously Roy is the best at
Speaker 2: at the top at eleveny eight hundred. But if you're
Speaker 2: learning for guys that probably the upside to win here,
Speaker 2: I would be looking at brooks Kopka in ninety two hundred,
Speaker 2: and the reason is that is he just performs in majors.
Speaker 2: Obviously he won the US Open, but he has a
Speaker 2: huge streak for the last couple of years to where
Speaker 2: he just performatively almost whole top thirties in his majors.
Speaker 1: Last couple of years.
Speaker 2: I mean he's seventeenth at the Bridge Down six of
Speaker 2: the British, first the US Open, and then eleventh of
Speaker 2: the Masters this year. So he has an ability to
Speaker 2: perform here. If looking at you know, some courses to
Speaker 2: where you know he might have He's played well in
Speaker 2: the past. He's played well on courses that had this
Speaker 2: type of champion's ultradorff grass. He's made the you know,
Speaker 2: the Sweet sixteen at Austin this year, was final eight
Speaker 2: there at Austin the year before, has played well at
Speaker 2: the Valero Texas Open, finishing second there this year. At
Speaker 2: the Memphis Saint Jude he's finished second and third and
Speaker 2: two of the last three years there. So he's very
Speaker 2: familiar and comfortable with this grass. Obviously it's not all
Speaker 2: dependent on putting. But guys that have you know, had
Speaker 2: success on similar type tracks, I think you got to
Speaker 2: look a little bit more towards.
Speaker 1: Them this week.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Andy, Andy Natchez us that that great driving ability.
Speaker 4: He hits it really long and really.
Speaker 3: Straight exactly, So I like Brooks Kopka a lot this week. Also,
Speaker 3: who are you fading in this group? Who do you
Speaker 3: not like of these top guys?
Speaker 2: Yeah, so the one guy I'm definitely not touching is
Speaker 2: definitely gonna be Henrik Stenson. So, Hendrik Stenson's record at
Speaker 2: KORL Holl has been miserable. Believe, his last his last
Speaker 2: five appearances here have been mis cut fifty eighth, miscut,
Speaker 2: miss cut, miss cut. Obviously the setup may be a
Speaker 2: little bit different, but that's enough, you know, bad form
Speaker 2: for a guy at ninety eight hundred to where I'm
Speaker 2: definitely not gonna be on him. With that being said,
Speaker 2: I don't think a ton of people will be will
Speaker 2: be using him in tournaments. So if you want to
Speaker 2: toss him in a one random lineup because he maybe
Speaker 2: five percent out, I definitely wouldn't argue against it. I'm
Speaker 2: just I'm just he's not going to be in my
Speaker 2: core group of players this week.
Speaker 3: Yeah, he hasn't really done a lot to inspire enthusiasm
Speaker 3: and picking him this year. Also, it's been kind of
Speaker 3: a down year for for uh, Henrik moving down and
Speaker 3: this kind of will be interesting to talk about just
Speaker 3: with you know, some sleepers and some maybe outside of
Speaker 3: it isn't really a sleeper if you're in this next
Speaker 3: tier but outside of your big games you get in here.
Speaker 4: You've got Justin Thomas at.
Speaker 3: Eighty nine hundred, and we'll kind of go down to
Speaker 3: Thomas Peters at seventy Thomas Peter Charles Schwartzel Louis U
Speaker 3: says in at seventy five hundred. As the bottom tier.
Speaker 3: You've got a lot of interesting names here, and I
Speaker 3: always think this is kind of the tier of guys
Speaker 3: where where you could get a guy that comes into
Speaker 3: the top five, and this is where you can kind
Speaker 3: of make your lineup really pop.
Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely, I see this week, especially if you can.
Speaker 2: It's me tough to fit two of the top studs
Speaker 2: that we kind of mentioned before in the same lineup,
Speaker 2: So you're gonna be putting, you know, two or three
Speaker 2: three of these mid tier players.
Speaker 1: In your lineup.
Speaker 2: And so the guy that I liked the most this
Speaker 2: week is actually Phil Mickelson, which I don't think a
Speaker 2: lot of people realize.
Speaker 1: How good he's been at Kuil Hollow.
Speaker 2: So in the last his last ten appearances at Kuil Hollow,
Speaker 2: he's gone fourth, fourth, eleventh, third, twenty sixth, ninth, second, fifth,
Speaker 2: and twelfth and third. So that's a pretty solid performance
Speaker 2: for the last ten appearances of quil Hollow, which if
Speaker 2: you think about it, you wouldn't expect Phil to play
Speaker 2: great there on paper because you kind of have to
Speaker 2: keep it on the planet off the tea box. But
Speaker 2: for some reason off the tee there, he's been absolutely
Speaker 2: amazing the last four or five years there. He's actually
Speaker 2: been near the top of the field and strokes gained
Speaker 2: off the tee at quil Hollow, which is kind of
Speaker 2: surprising because he doesn't he doesn't necessarily, you know, a
Speaker 2: bomber like Rory, but he's just been hitting fairways every
Speaker 2: time he's been playing at quill Hollow, which if he
Speaker 2: does it again this week, I wouldn't see reason why
Speaker 2: he wouldn't contend again. And he's another guy that puts
Speaker 2: good on that champions Bermuda. And so one of the
Speaker 2: things that should put together this week was looking at
Speaker 2: you know, stroke stained putting on that type of grass
Speaker 2: over the last three years versus what their current stats are,
Speaker 2: and you know, I was able to find, you know,
Speaker 2: six golfers that kind of pop there, and you know,
Speaker 2: Phil Mickelson over the course of you know, a four
Speaker 2: round tournament, is gaining two and a half shots on
Speaker 2: the green putting on this grass as compared to his
Speaker 2: normal strokes game putting.
Speaker 1: On all of the grasses.
Speaker 4: That's amazing.
Speaker 1: Phil's grass, exactly. Yeah.
Speaker 2: And one other interesting thing is the sand that they
Speaker 2: just put on the golf course this year is the
Speaker 2: exact type of sand from Augusta Nationals.
Speaker 1: So that's another thing.
Speaker 2: You know, Phil, you know, if he happen to miss
Speaker 2: the greens, a short game wizard, and we all know
Speaker 2: how well he plays at Augusta, especially with the short
Speaker 2: game hitting out of the bunkers. So that's that's just
Speaker 2: kind of another thing pouring towards Michelson this week.
Speaker 4: Man, And this is one hundredth major.
Speaker 3: It's ceremonious too, Exactly. I don't know if I could
Speaker 3: deal with Phil winning. I have this thing that Ernie
Speaker 3: Els is a better player than Phil, and I'll just
Speaker 3: I'll just never hear the end of it.
Speaker 4: If Phil went, so.
Speaker 1: We can hope for a Phil victory, then.
Speaker 3: I will look like an idiot. I already do look
Speaker 3: like an indiot, though, so that's fine.
Speaker 4: So what do you think of you know a name
Speaker 4: in here?
Speaker 3: I kind of likes Tommy Fleetwood. He doesn't have any
Speaker 3: course history, but he drives it so well. I think
Speaker 3: this could be a good fit for him.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean this is this is honestly a better
Speaker 2: fit golf course for him than it was at the
Speaker 2: British Open, even though that was kind of a local
Speaker 2: course for him. He's pretty reasonably price at eight thousand
Speaker 2: dollars to where for a DraftKings lineup, he'll probably be
Speaker 2: a little bit overlooked because, especially the larger tournaments, you
Speaker 2: have a lot of you know, casual DraftKings players that
Speaker 2: don't necessarily know the European players. So you'll see this
Speaker 2: every major, the European tour players will be a lot
Speaker 2: less owned just because they don't have the name recognition.
Speaker 2: So you know, if let's say, you know Daniel Berger
Speaker 2: had the same you know, resume as Tommy Fleetwood, you
Speaker 2: put him on paper, they may look fairly similar.
Speaker 1: I mean, Fleetwood's leading the race to to buy in Europe,
Speaker 1: yet no one knows that.
Speaker 2: And you're getting him at eight thousand dollars and he's
Speaker 2: a premier driver of the golf ball on a course
Speaker 2: that needs that. So get fleet with a ten percent
Speaker 2: ownership in a DraftKings lineup, which you know, he's a
Speaker 2: very good, high upside play. He kind of reminds me
Speaker 2: of what Thomas Peters was last week. This one under
Speaker 2: the radar talked about by a few people, you know,
Speaker 2: a good course fit, but no one really you know,
Speaker 2: recognized them because you know, he's kind of a European
Speaker 2: tour player, doesn't play much in the States.
Speaker 3: How do you like Thomas Peters for this week? It
Speaker 3: seems like a better good fit. The way he drives it.
Speaker 3: He's a really good approach player, iron player, and he
Speaker 3: and he can get hot with the putter.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, whenever I'm trying to build a lineup
Speaker 2: for a DraftKings tournament, I'm not necessarily just looking at
Speaker 2: how they're gonna play. I'm also looking if my player
Speaker 2: plays well, how's he gonna how's he gonna get there?
Speaker 2: And so if Thomas Peters plays well, it's because he's making.
Speaker 1: A lot of birdies. I kind of do a comparison.
Speaker 2: You know, if you have some guys that say Louis
Speaker 2: Jus stays in or Zach Johnson, when they play well,
Speaker 2: they tend to, you know, limit their mistakes and you
Speaker 2: know they're gonna shoot fifteen under, they're gonna make eighteen
Speaker 2: birdies and three bogies. If Thomas Peter's gonna shoot fifteen under,
Speaker 2: he's gonna make twenty five birdies and ten bogies usually, right,
Speaker 2: And for DraftKings wise, you're gonna want the guy that's
Speaker 2: making more birdies because a fifteenth place finish from Peters
Speaker 2: may be just as good as an eighth place finish
Speaker 2: from Zach Johnson, for example.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, that makes sense because the whole DraftKings scoring
Speaker 3: values birdie so highly exactly, So you're high on.
Speaker 4: Burger and Hoffman, I know because of the grass, right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So Charlie Hoffman actually leads that strokes game putting differential.
Speaker 2: He's actually one point or four point four shots better
Speaker 2: per four rounds on this grass as compared to normal grass,
Speaker 2: which is which is kind.
Speaker 1: Of a little bit astounding.
Speaker 2: But if you look back at the course, he's done
Speaker 2: that on Valera text is open. He plays plays well
Speaker 2: every year and happens the puttwell there. I mean it's
Speaker 2: only a small sample size of maybe twenty or thirty rounds,
Speaker 2: but it's still a large differential. We really can't ignore.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Andy, and he's hitting the ball great. I mean,
Speaker 3: the recent forum is out of this world good. So
Speaker 3: seems like another good fit for him.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and he hasn't played quil Holli since twenty eleven,
Speaker 2: so I'm not really looking at course history for him.
Speaker 2: But when he goes, you know, thirdy Bridge downs second
Speaker 2: at the Canadian Open. He's played good in big events.
Speaker 2: Twentieth of the British, eighth of the US Open, you know,
Speaker 2: twenty second of the Masters, thirtieth of the players. Those
Speaker 2: are all big events and he's just he's just always there.
Speaker 4: M M. Yeah.
Speaker 3: I always say when he hit the ball well, it's
Speaker 3: it's hard to not be there. And he's hid it
Speaker 3: well all year. So Jamie Holmes is a guy that's
Speaker 3: won here. What are you thinking about him for this week?
Speaker 2: He's another one if you're building let's say, if you're
Speaker 2: building five tournament lineups and draftings, you're probably gonna toss
Speaker 2: him and maybe in one, maybe one or two, just
Speaker 2: because he's another one of those high upside plays to
Speaker 2: where if he happens to have, you know, that week
Speaker 2: where everything's clicking, he's gonna be a birdie and gets
Speaker 2: you a top ten, but they're obviously, you know, is
Speaker 2: the risk of him missing the cut this week. But
Speaker 2: if you're gonna try to win a tournament on draftings,
Speaker 2: you're gonna have to play some of these high upside
Speaker 2: plays like homes or repeaters.
Speaker 4: You know.
Speaker 3: The other thing is you might want to fade the
Speaker 3: players with Holmes because rumor is he doesn't wear a deodorant.
Speaker 4: It's can be hot and muggy down there.
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, but his playing competitors may also be thirty
Speaker 2: yards behind him off the tee, so they may not
Speaker 2: smell that.
Speaker 4: So I'm not in on Patrick Greed this week, are you?
Speaker 1: Oh? Nah?
Speaker 2: He just doesn't necessarily, you know, suit for me. I'd
Speaker 2: much st to take another guy at seventy three hundred,
Speaker 2: Brennan Steel. You know, Steele just is a really good
Speaker 2: player off the tee. He has good histories. Last two
Speaker 2: times at kual Hollow he's gone fourteenth and ninth. And
Speaker 2: he's also another one of those guys that happens to
Speaker 2: putt well on this grass type. He's got you know,
Speaker 2: a posit the strokes game putting of two point eight
Speaker 2: compared to his normal putting one one putting on the
Speaker 2: step of grass, you know, not trying to you know,
Speaker 2: not trying to you know, beat the stat to death,
Speaker 2: but you know, it's a big difference when you're getting
Speaker 2: more than more than two shots over a over a
Speaker 2: four on tournaments.
Speaker 3: I feel like Brandon Steele is one of the most
Speaker 3: underappreciated players on tour simply because he's sponsored by Wilson.
Speaker 3: You know, if he was sponsored by like Taylor Made
Speaker 3: or Calaway, he'd be like way more popular because he
Speaker 3: hits it far. His swing's kind of goofy, but you
Speaker 3: know he I just think he gets Wilson doesn't market
Speaker 3: him enough well.
Speaker 2: And the one of the thing is he may go
Speaker 2: a little bit under owned this week actually because he's
Speaker 2: been consistent the whole year up into the last three,
Speaker 2: last three events, so he did he didn't miss a
Speaker 2: cut all year until they miscut at the Quick Amounts
Speaker 2: miscut at the British Open, and then he shot seventy
Speaker 2: five last week in the first round and then shot
Speaker 2: seventy seventy one and seventy last three, and you know,
Speaker 2: no one he didn't really get any press coverage. No
Speaker 2: one really knew he's kind of flying under the radar,
Speaker 2: and you got a lot of popular plays, you know,
Speaker 2: similarly priced. If you're looking at on draftings, you got
Speaker 2: you got Caberrabeo, who just did good at at you know,
Speaker 2: at last Major at seventy one, you got you know,
Speaker 2: we got Patrick Reid, Bubba Watson, Russell, Henley, JB. Holmes,
Speaker 2: Schwartzel Peters, Oust, Hayes, and Hoffman Berger. You have all
Speaker 2: those guys within a couple hundred hours a price. So
Speaker 2: you know, the ownership is going to have to drop
Speaker 2: off on a couple of those guys, and it may
Speaker 2: drop off on Steel where you may get him, you know,
Speaker 2: sub ten percent, which you know he could be, you know,
Speaker 2: a guy that you know could make or break your lineup.
Speaker 3: This week, Yeah, speaking of Bubba, your Strokes gained last
Speaker 3: place and Strokes gained mental where.
Speaker 4: Yeah, what do you think about Bubba? This week? We've
Speaker 4: seen some proof of life, but recently from the pescatarian.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, we.
Speaker 2: Have said seen some proof of life. I mean he
Speaker 2: has had a little bit of glimmer of hope of
Speaker 2: this course. He did finished second back here in two
Speaker 2: thousand and nine, but since then he you know, he
Speaker 2: said you said three.
Speaker 1: Other appearances and didn't have any top twenties.
Speaker 2: So I'm not necessarily sure if if it's a great
Speaker 2: course fit for him, but I wouldn't be playing a
Speaker 2: ton of bubble this week. I mean he he would
Speaker 2: have to be finishing in the know the top ten
Speaker 2: to get a lot of upside for me, and I
Speaker 2: just don't really see it with his mental game right now.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's uh so, moving down into like the seven
Speaker 3: thousand range and below, I mean there's a lot of
Speaker 3: interesting names.
Speaker 4: Tony fen Now obviously is one.
Speaker 3: Xander Schoffley, who's been really hot and played well in
Speaker 3: big events is another seven thousand, and then you got
Speaker 3: like Lucas Glover, He's a guy that's always plays well
Speaker 3: here seemingly. Kevin Chappell. I mean there are there's just
Speaker 3: seems seems like you could create a whole roster with
Speaker 3: seven thousand dollar guys.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you pretty much could.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's why you're gonna You're gonna see a
Speaker 2: lot some of the roster construction where guys will take
Speaker 2: three guys from this range and then take you know two,
Speaker 2: you know, one of the you know studs in the
Speaker 2: top three of salary and then filling two guys between
Speaker 2: that eight to ninety five hundred range, and that's probably
Speaker 2: gonna be a popular construction this week for some of
Speaker 2: the tournaments. But I mean, yeah, definitely a lot of
Speaker 2: those guys you mentioned I love it. I mean Tony
Speaker 2: Fenw has gone twenty eighth and sixteenth his two appearances here.
Speaker 2: You know, he's been playing great of late fifth of
Speaker 2: the Canadian Open, twenty seventh with the British Open, you know,
Speaker 2: even before that, went seventh at Green Brier. Literally the
Speaker 2: entire last two months, he's he's finished top forty every
Speaker 2: single event going back to the Byron Nelson in May.
Speaker 1: So that just screams consistency right there.
Speaker 2: And he's a guy that bombs it off the tee
Speaker 2: and he actually still keeps it in play for as
Speaker 2: far as he hits it. So he's gonna if he
Speaker 2: has a good driving week in terms of keeping on
Speaker 2: the planet, he definitely could have could have a top
Speaker 2: ten of this course. I mean, one of the other
Speaker 2: guys I actually love this week is definitely gonna be
Speaker 2: Kevin Chappel.
Speaker 1: He's just another guy who's just striking the ball well
Speaker 1: right now.
Speaker 2: His last his last two finishes, finished thirteenth at the
Speaker 2: Bridge Dome eighth the Canadian Open. You know, people kind
Speaker 2: of forgot him out because he missed the two cuts
Speaker 2: before that, but it just seems to be a good
Speaker 2: course fit because he's he's another of those guys that's
Speaker 2: he's kind of like Charlie Hoffen where he may not
Speaker 2: necessarily hit it the furthest off the tee, but he's
Speaker 2: gonna hit it three hundred yards and he's gonna find
Speaker 2: a lot of fairways, which this week, if you're putting
Speaker 2: it three hundred yards down the middle of the fairway,
Speaker 2: you're gonna be in good shape because you know there's
Speaker 2: so many holes that are long here where you're gonna
Speaker 2: be having one to fifty to one eighty in and
Speaker 2: you just cannot afford to be missing fairways and be
Speaker 2: and be far away. At the same time, you can't
Speaker 2: be one seventy in the rough. You have to be
Speaker 2: one fifty down there on one forty if you happen
Speaker 2: to miss and be.
Speaker 4: In the rough.
Speaker 3: Now, Chapel has two straight top fifteen finishes at Wells
Speaker 3: Fargo too the last two years at at Quail Howell,
Speaker 3: so good course history too totally. Then we get down
Speaker 3: in the sub seven thousand range. You know, we're starting
Speaker 3: to get into the deep sleepers here. Who are Luke
Speaker 3: Wis played really well last week, he's long. I think
Speaker 3: he's played well at this event before too. You got
Speaker 3: Web Simpson. I had somebody ask me today about Web
Speaker 3: what with the thoughts for the local member Bill hass
Speaker 3: Is another local? Who are your guys in this in
Speaker 3: this bottom tier range going all the way down to
Speaker 3: say sixty you know, to the bottom.
Speaker 2: All the way down to the bottom. Yeah, I mean
Speaker 2: there's there's a couple of guys. You have some good
Speaker 2: value here. I think you got it, you know at
Speaker 2: sixty seven ND I believe is you have. You have
Speaker 2: Gary Woodland, who obviously you know, didn't play great last week,
Speaker 2: but two weeks ago in Canada played pretty solid, you know,
Speaker 2: finishing fourth and he had He has a prettycent track
Speaker 2: record here. He's gone twenty his last his last three
Speaker 2: starts here. Quil Holly is going twenty fourth, fourth and eighteenth.
Speaker 2: And you know he's an the guy that he hits
Speaker 2: long off the tee. I mean he strokes gained off
Speaker 2: the tee when he put in you know Canada finished fourth.
Speaker 2: Was is off the charts because it was just a
Speaker 2: stripe show. It was just three twenty down the middle
Speaker 2: every single hole. And you know he didn't necessily hit
Speaker 2: a grade last week. But if he finds that form
Speaker 2: again this week at sixty seven hundred, there's not many
Speaker 2: guys below seven thousand that have as much upside as
Speaker 2: Gary Woodland just based on some issue based on the
Speaker 2: power alone.
Speaker 3: It's one of the more depressing things is to look
Speaker 3: at Woodland's tea Degreen stats and then his putting stats
Speaker 3: and you realize if he he putted well at like
Speaker 3: a good level, he would win so many tournaments.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I mean one.
Speaker 2: Of the amazing stats was when he actually played in
Speaker 2: at the RBC Canadian Open, he gained fourteen and a
Speaker 2: half shots tee to green and lost two and a
Speaker 2: half shots putting and finished fourth. So it's not often
Speaker 2: you see a guy that lost two and a half
Speaker 2: shots strokes, gained putting and finished four worth.
Speaker 1: At an event. Yeah, that just means you're absolutely striping
Speaker 1: at t the green.
Speaker 3: So anybody else down here that you like outside of Woodland, Yeah.
Speaker 2: I mean there's a couple of players you've had Danny
Speaker 2: Lee here, who's probably you know, a really big flyer
Speaker 2: here down at sixty six hundred. But he's another guy
Speaker 2: who's had success to this course, and he tends to
Speaker 2: be a really good long iron player. He's gone ninth
Speaker 2: and thirteenth his last two times at Kuil Hollow. He's
Speaker 2: kind of been, you know, pretty silent. No one's really
Speaker 2: heard much from him the last couple of weeks. You know,
Speaker 2: last time he played good. He had a good stretch
Speaker 2: in late June early July where he went third at
Speaker 2: the Travelers twenty seconds, Wick Loans, and ninth of the Greenbrier,
Speaker 2: and then kind of no one's heard much about it
Speaker 2: last month because he hasn't played great.
Speaker 3: Yeah, he had an elbow injury that he had to
Speaker 3: pull out of the I think the Deer with but he.
Speaker 1: Withdrew for the first round of the Deer. But he
Speaker 1: did play the Canadian Open.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think he finished like thirty second there or
Speaker 2: something like that. So you know, I think he's back
Speaker 2: healthy enough to where I don't mind rostering him at
Speaker 2: sixty six hundred because he's just you know, he's a
Speaker 2: guy that wouldn't surprise you. He said, hey, Danny Lee
Speaker 2: finished fifth at the at the PGA Championship.
Speaker 1: I said, Okay, that's believable.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and there's there's not many guys down here in
Speaker 2: this range that have as much upside as him. I mean,
Speaker 2: obviously got guys like Jason Duffner or you know, like
Speaker 2: even maybe if Sean o'herry.
Speaker 1: Who's had a good successor in the past.
Speaker 2: But you don't have a ton of those guys down
Speaker 2: here that are gonna say, oh, he is top five upside.
Speaker 2: You got a lot of guys that may finish top thirty,
Speaker 2: but a guy that finishes thirtieth probably isn't gonna isn't
Speaker 2: gonna win you the tournament. You're gonna have to have
Speaker 2: some you know, longer shot guy down here finished top five.
Speaker 2: You know, example, like taking a guy like Beef Johnston,
Speaker 2: who nobody knows in America but he's you know, really
Speaker 2: could try her the golf ball and yeah, he may
Speaker 2: only be one or two percent home Une DraftKings this week,
Speaker 2: and if he happens to play well, there you go.
Speaker 2: I mean, he did finish twenty seventh of the British
Speaker 2: in the last major, so you know, and for be
Speaker 2: second at the US Open, so you know, it's definitely
Speaker 2: there for major to where you know he's not necessarily
Speaker 2: scared of the spotlight.
Speaker 3: Yeah, beef one at val Darama last year too, which
Speaker 3: was one of the tougher driving courses on the European Tour.
Speaker 3: So definitely fits him well if you got to drive
Speaker 3: it well, definitely. So any any other guys down here that,
Speaker 3: uh do you have a do you have a club
Speaker 3: pro that you're that you're picking?
Speaker 1: Nah?
Speaker 2: Man, I'm pretty much staying away from all the club pros.
Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, you obviously have like Mike Small from
Speaker 2: the University, you know, the University onaway head coach there
Speaker 2: is you know, always a pretty solid play. But realistically
Speaker 2: you're going to see maybe one or one or two
Speaker 2: of these guys make the cut this week. But I
Speaker 2: wouldn't expect any of them to, you know, really to
Speaker 2: contend this week.
Speaker 4: What do you think about Grayson Murray? Uh?
Speaker 1: Can I plead the fifth?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 4: I kind of think he could have could surprise.
Speaker 3: He's from North Carolina and you know, when he's cooking,
Speaker 3: he drives.
Speaker 4: It really well.
Speaker 3: He's long, makes a lot of birdies. But it might
Speaker 3: be it might be too big of.
Speaker 4: A moment for him.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, that's another one where you're gonna have
Speaker 2: to have your mental game together. I mean, obviously the
Speaker 2: PJA Championship of the scoring is usually lower than most
Speaker 2: of their majors, but it's still gonna be a grind
Speaker 2: fest this week. I mean, I'm expecting, you know, the
Speaker 2: winning score to be somewhere between maybe eight to twelve
Speaker 2: hundred par and you know, it's gonna play difficult in
Speaker 2: stretches just based upon the way that the course is
Speaker 2: set up, especially if the guys who won in the
Speaker 2: first two rounds and they're teeing off the back side,
Speaker 2: they're gonna have to play the Green Mile, which is
Speaker 2: what they call quill Hall's last three holes, which are
Speaker 2: you know, the five hundred and six yard par four,
Speaker 2: sixteen sixteen, two hundred and twenty yard seventeenth, part three,
Speaker 2: four hundred and ninety yard eighteenth, and they're gonna have
Speaker 2: to go right over to the first t box till
Speaker 2: the hold of McGirt was talking about, you know, five
Speaker 2: five twenty par four, four fifty four and forty eighty
Speaker 2: par four. So you're going to play those holes in
Speaker 2: a row, and I expect absolute carnage between those six holes.
Speaker 2: You may see guys go into that six hole, stretch
Speaker 2: a couple under, and walk out a couple over.
Speaker 3: Yeah, then it just wears on you for the If
Speaker 3: you have to play six really tough holes in a row,
Speaker 3: it's you need a little break.
Speaker 4: So where are your favorite odds bets this week?
Speaker 2: I think one of the best odds on the board
Speaker 2: is that is actually Phil Michelson that I kind of
Speaker 2: mentioned earlier, So I believe for the week, I think
Speaker 2: he's plus two fifty for top twenty bet, meaning you know,
Speaker 2: if there's a hundre dollar bet on it, you're getting
Speaker 2: your hundred dollars back plus two hundred fifty dollars back
Speaker 2: for top twenty. Considering you know his history there where
Speaker 2: he's he's finished inside the top twelve nine of the
Speaker 2: last ten years here, a top twenty bet seems pretty
Speaker 2: pretty plausible. And he's also five to one for a
Speaker 2: top ten and he's finished you know, top ten six
Speaker 2: of the ten years here. So those are those seemed
Speaker 2: pretty good odds for you know, a guy who's you know,
Speaker 2: tends to show up in major and you know, really
Speaker 2: loves his golf course.
Speaker 4: Mm hmm.
Speaker 3: That's that's good. Do you have any other ones that
Speaker 3: that you're really in on.
Speaker 2: I mean, if you're making it making any bets there,
Speaker 2: I would kind of, you know, look at maybe maybe
Speaker 2: towards some head to heads if there's some guys you
Speaker 2: don't like, Like if you're going against maybe a guy
Speaker 2: we talked about Henrik Stenson, if you can find a
Speaker 2: head to head matchup for him against any of the
Speaker 2: other top players, I'm thinking Stenson's got a good chance
Speaker 2: to miss the cut this week, so I would kind
Speaker 2: of choose, you know, the other player, whether maybe you know,
Speaker 2: maybe match up against a Scott or a Casey.
Speaker 1: Or a Sergio or a Rose.
Speaker 2: I like all those guys that you know over Stenson,
Speaker 2: if you can get him in a head to head matchup.
Speaker 4: M yeah, Dessa.
Speaker 3: Rose has good track record here, he's done in the
Speaker 3: best recent form. But I feel like he could be
Speaker 3: a guy that could really play well this week.
Speaker 1: Definitely.
Speaker 2: I mean he finished third here in twenty sixteen, fifth
Speaker 2: and twenty fourteen, so I mean the forum is definitely there.
Speaker 2: The only question is is his current form there, because
Speaker 2: obviously we know he plays for he used to play
Speaker 2: or he played well in the pass at Firestone, and
Speaker 2: he didn't necessarily play well last week. But we know
Speaker 2: it's definitely there for majors because you saw what he
Speaker 2: played Augusta. It's just a matter of which Justin really
Speaker 2: shows up for us.
Speaker 4: So h so you're picked to win. Who's is it?
Speaker 1: Rory? It's Rory.
Speaker 2: I've been on Ry for a long time and you know,
Speaker 2: you just cannot pass up what he's done here at
Speaker 2: at at quill Hollow. I mean it just it's been domination.
Speaker 2: You know, he went fourth in twenty sixteen, one in fifteen,
Speaker 2: eighth and four twenty fourteen, ten to twenty thirteen, second
Speaker 2: in twenty twelve. Yeah, obviously missed the cut in eleven,
Speaker 2: and then he won in twenty ten. That's just you know,
Speaker 2: I want to say, it's almost Tiger like, where the
Speaker 2: guy his last seven appearances he has you know, six
Speaker 2: top tens.
Speaker 1: That that's kind of crazy. No, no matter what course.
Speaker 3: That's on, mm hmm, yeah, it's uh, it seems like
Speaker 3: that's where you know, most of the hype is gone.
Speaker 3: I since I'm I'm back and down in my fantasy leagues.
Speaker 4: I mean have to be you know, scrape from the
Speaker 4: bottom of the barrel.
Speaker 3: I don't know who I'm gonna go with yet, but
Speaker 3: I'm probably gonna just take some fire, hope that nobody
Speaker 3: else takes them and pick up some points.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you just gave me typical control and Andy, we.
Speaker 3: Know it's yeah, well I change my mind every every day,
Speaker 3: so I'll uh.
Speaker 1: You'll probably be going with Lee west when it's fine.
Speaker 4: So no, no, the last Wood. You know, Westwood does
Speaker 4: have one really good finish here, so I did see
Speaker 4: some glimmer of hope.
Speaker 5: But he's been gallivanting in there in in French look, Indiana.
Speaker 4: He's not even getting ready down in North Carolina. He's
Speaker 4: been in Indiana. It was disappointed, very disappointed. I might
Speaker 4: pick Thomas Peters.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a viable option. Maybe Fleetwood.
Speaker 4: I'll probably pick Fleetwood.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna pick so but uh all right, well, uh
Speaker 3: Les know what you think. We might be doing more
Speaker 3: of these in the future. Paullie, thanks for coming on.
Speaker 3: I know you got early morning tomorrow, so no problem.
Speaker 1: Thanks for having me.
Speaker 3: And yeah, definitely and if you don't follow Paullie, check
Speaker 3: him out. It's at Frida egg Pollie on Twitter, and
Speaker 3: he's he's really good at getting back to you, giving
Speaker 3: and giving you what he thinks about different things.