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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that actions.

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Speaker 1: All right. Here we go from throwing out I'm sitting

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Speaker 1: up to cash to stop.

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Speaker 3: That's all.

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Speaker 1: We'll see. Most gambles when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to sin. That's incredible. Big bank, small bank. I

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Speaker 1: like to make money.

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Speaker 4: All right.

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Speaker 1: This is the ultimate kabar you want to pull.

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Speaker 4: And we are underway.

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Speaker 1: What is going on? Everybody?

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings. I

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Speaker 3: am your host, Chris Raybond. It's NFL Week eleven. We

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Speaker 3: got touchdowns for you from every game on the Sunday

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Speaker 3: and Monday Slate. Anytime Touchdown selections from Sean Kerner, from

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Speaker 3: Jill Gallant and myself. Last week we hit on a

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Speaker 3: few of them, but most of all biggest the Kerner

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Speaker 3: with Alec Pearce, Golant with McBride, me with Jamison Williams.

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Speaker 1: A twenty two to one parway.

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Speaker 3: That was our favorite Sunday Slate Anytime touchdown, So twenty

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Speaker 3: two to one essentially pays us off for the year

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Speaker 3: twenty I think we do like twenty one or twenty

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Speaker 3: two shows and hit a twenty two to one parway.

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Speaker 3: So that's pretty good. Today, we'll go through all of

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Speaker 3: the week eleven slate. We'll also get some parways again

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Speaker 3: set up for Sunday and Monday Night football, as well

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Speaker 3: as our favorite one yet again for the Sunday slate.

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Speaker 3: If you want to taill to look for the quick

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Speaker 3: sliplink in the podcast the video description, or go to

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Speaker 3: Action network dot com slash bet. Now before we get

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Speaker 3: into these touchdowns, I'll toss it over to myself for

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Speaker 3: a word from our sponsor. The Action Network podcast has

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Speaker 3: League Pass the crown is yours, all right, Kerner, nice

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Speaker 3: call on the out, Pierce, I know you're on that everywhere.

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Speaker 1: Last week he was overdue for a touchdown.

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Speaker 3: You're up first with the international game in Spain. He

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Speaker 3: got the Commanders and the Miami Dolphins. This could be

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Speaker 3: a shit shows. Who you got in this one?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, it's obviously going to be a shit show.

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Speaker 4: But actually these are my two favorite touchdown props this week.

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Speaker 4: So first up, I got Robbie chosen or chosen Anderson

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Speaker 4: whatever he's listed at your book around plus nine point fifty.

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Speaker 4: I was shocked to see his odds this high, right right, Raybod, Like,

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Speaker 4: what the hell's going on? Because you know last week

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Speaker 4: the Commanders he has chosen and trail on Burks of

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Speaker 4: all people over Jaylen Lane and Chris Moore, as you know,

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Speaker 4: the three receivers with Deebo Samuel, but Burkes broke his finger.

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Speaker 4: He's already been ruled out. So expecting Lane specifically to

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Speaker 4: take more of those snaps, but I also think that

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Speaker 4: we'll also just see more Robbie getting an increase in snaps.

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Speaker 4: He had four targets last week, one short of the

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Speaker 4: team higat wide receiver Deebo had five, so he's seeing snaps, targets,

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Speaker 4: and we obviously know he has big play potential. So

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Speaker 4: I'm actually projecting this closer to plus six fifty. And

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Speaker 4: I think I'm being pretty conservative with his routes run rate.

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Speaker 4: I have him like thirty five forty percent. He could

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Speaker 4: easily be way above that, just given how finn this

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Speaker 4: wide receiver room is. So love Robbie chosen here to score,

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Speaker 4: usually never lets me down anytime I bet on him.

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Speaker 4: It's like Jalen Naylor for Raybond. He usually comes through.

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Speaker 4: So go with Robbie here, and then, oh my god,

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Speaker 4: my favorite underrated tight end in the league. Greg Dulcic

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Speaker 4: at plus four fifty. You know, I heard Jill talking

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Speaker 4: about him before. You know, he just wasn't a good

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Speaker 4: fit in Sean Payton's scheme in Denver. So he's been

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Speaker 4: kind of bouncing around with you know, the Giants in

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Speaker 4: the preseason. Now he's on the Dolphins and with Darren

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Speaker 4: Waller out and Tanner Connor Cutt and Julian Hill, you know,

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Speaker 4: banged up, he's still questionable for this game. Dulca has

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Speaker 4: been operating as the clearly tight end had a seventy

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Speaker 4: five percent routes run rate last week. You know, I

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Speaker 4: love him as a prospect. I consider him like a

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Speaker 4: dollar store TJ. Howkinson, And anytime he's had, you know, opportunity,

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Speaker 4: he's typically produced. So you know, he could operate as

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Speaker 4: the number two target for the Dolphins here against a

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Speaker 4: very shaky Commander's defense who's allowed six receiving touchdowns the

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Speaker 4: tight ends this year. So you know, might want to

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Speaker 4: wait and see if Julian Hill is actually out or

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Speaker 4: if he's playing. But I do like Dulcich here at

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Speaker 4: plus four fifty.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Hill has.

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Speaker 3: Been practicing on a limited basis so far this week,

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Speaker 3: so probably I will be back, but I think Dulsa

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Speaker 3: still feels that Darren Waller roll. I think what would

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Speaker 3: complicate it would be if they you know, like elevate

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Speaker 3: Tanner Connor again or something like that.

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Speaker 1: I think he's back on the Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Would that be tougher to do because it's international? Would

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Speaker 4: they like, when's the latest I could do that?

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Speaker 3: I mean they could still do it Friday Saturday night,

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Speaker 3: I think, just like any other Yeah, it's just like

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Speaker 3: you have to be a certain amount of hours before.

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Speaker 1: But either way.

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Speaker 3: I think Dulson is still operates the weed tight end.

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Speaker 3: He's clearly fit for that role.

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Speaker 1: So I love that. And Robbie chosen revenge game too,

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Speaker 1: so like that.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Jill, nice call for you on the trade McBride.

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Speaker 3: I feel like you've been going to that every week

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Speaker 3: smart with Jacoby Brissette under center. But here we got

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Speaker 3: the Panthers at the Falcons divisional matchup. This was a

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Speaker 3: shutout in favor of the Panthers the last time out.

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Speaker 1: Where are you going for touchdowns here?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I think Drake London has to be the choice

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Speaker 2: on the Falcon side. Four touchdowns over the last two games.

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Speaker 2: And one of the things about to the Panthers playing

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Speaker 2: a ton of zone, well, London has just an elite

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Speaker 2: targets run against zone. There's only two wide receivers that

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Speaker 2: actually exceed him that have run more than one hundred

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Speaker 2: and fifty routes, and that's Jackson Smith and Jinga and

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Speaker 2: pukin Na Koua. And it's difficult to get those guys

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Speaker 2: at plus odds at this point in the season. So

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Speaker 2: the fact that we're getting Drake lundon here at plus

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Speaker 2: one twenty five really like that, especially coming off of

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Speaker 2: that thirty to zhering game. I mean last season he

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Speaker 2: cooked them for three touchdowns in two games. So I

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Speaker 2: think whether it's j C. Horn covering him or not,

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Speaker 2: Like I'm not really too worried about it. I think

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Speaker 2: Drake London is a good spot here, especially if you

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Speaker 2: can get him at plus odds. But on the Panthers side, Raymond.

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Speaker 2: You talk a lot about the rookies and having these

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Speaker 2: kind of explosive games, and Ted McMillan hasn't really had

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Speaker 2: more than one of those yet this season. I think

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Speaker 2: he's primed for another one in this spot, much like

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Speaker 2: the reason why Sean went with Alec Pierce last week,

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Speaker 2: because the Falcons that they play so much zone, but

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Speaker 2: they played the highest single rate single high safety highest

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Speaker 2: rate in the NFL. And right now, the receiver that

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Speaker 2: applies to you on the Panther side is McMillan because

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Speaker 2: he's got the highest targets per route run against single

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Speaker 2: high and I mean every receiver metric red zone targets,

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Speaker 2: end zone targets, deep targets, snap rates, whatever tet's right

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Speaker 2: up there at the top. So I think with the

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Speaker 2: Panthers being road dogs playing indoors trailing game script. There's

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Speaker 2: just a lot to like with him. So he's around

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Speaker 2: plus two twenty five. So I like Ted McMillan on

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Speaker 2: the Panthers side and Drake London at plus one twenty five.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, London's just been on an absolute tear and I've

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Speaker 3: been waiting for that McMillan game too.

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Speaker 1: This is a good spot for it, like those calls,

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Speaker 1: all right.

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Speaker 3: Next up, we got the Cincinnati Bengals going to Pittsburgh

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Speaker 3: to take on the Steelers. On the Steelers side, I'm

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Speaker 3: not even gonna get fancy here. I'm gonna go with

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Speaker 3: Jyalen Warren at minus one to sixty. Still have a

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Speaker 3: little bit of value here on this. This is my

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Speaker 3: guy Stucky's favorite anytime touchdown from the Action Network pod

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Speaker 3: as well. He's been on a tear and I totally

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Speaker 3: agree with him here Jaalen Warren. They're trying to get

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Speaker 3: him more work. He's already been handling about eighty percent

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Speaker 3: of the backfield carries over the past months, and Tomlin says, hey,

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Speaker 3: we got to get a more work in this Cincinnati defense.

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Speaker 3: I know they're coming off of BUYE, but no Hendrickson

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Speaker 3: and They've given up the most fantasy points to running

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Speaker 3: backs by a good you know what, three to four

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Speaker 3: points nine touchdowns on the ground to opposing backs four

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Speaker 3: more through the air. So I think Warren could get

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Speaker 3: in the end zone either way here. He is going

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Speaker 3: to be active in the receiving game as well. You

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Speaker 3: know Rogers likes to dump off those short passes. And

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Speaker 3: then on the Bengals side, I'm going with their running

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Speaker 3: back as well, Chase Brown at plus one thirty five.

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Speaker 3: There's a chance Chase Brown's odd should be just as

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Speaker 3: high as as Jalen Warrens because he might have to

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Speaker 3: play the entire game. It really depends on samaj p Ryan,

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Speaker 3: who believe misspracticed on to start the week. We'll see

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Speaker 3: if he progresses, but I think it's a high ankle,

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Speaker 3: so he'll like we be out. They haven't been willing

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Speaker 3: to give Brooks that many snaps thus far, and Brown

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Speaker 3: they've shown that they they'll play him for the entire game.

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Speaker 3: So I love getting him at plus money. I think

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Speaker 3: he could close at minus juice in this one. So,

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Speaker 3: like Brown and like Warren, the two backs for the

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Speaker 3: Bengals Steelers Divisional clash Kerner Titans Texans.

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Speaker 4: This could be exciting. Yeah, the game we've all been

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Speaker 4: waiting for, right well, you know, since we are facing

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Speaker 4: the Titans here on the Houston side, I think we

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Speaker 4: take advantage of that and invest in the Texans running

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Speaker 4: backs here in some way, some form, because you know

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Speaker 4: rayvan Is, he always allude to like the Titans run

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Speaker 4: defense sucks. They've allowed twelve rushing touchdowns running backs the season.

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Speaker 4: And last week I was really hot in Woody marks

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Speaker 4: and he had a really solid game eighty plus cow

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Speaker 4: yards and a rushing score. So he's he's trending up

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Speaker 4: heading into a cupcake matchup. So I think he's the

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Speaker 4: clear favorite to score. And he's round like plus one

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Speaker 4: ten right now, So like that, And I also think

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Speaker 4: Nick Chubb could also score here too. He's closer to

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Speaker 4: a plus two hundred. So I thought, why don't we

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Speaker 4: just parlay them together to kind of get like an

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Speaker 4: anti correlation boost. It's plus five seventy five, so we're

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Speaker 4: calling it the Woody and Chub erection selection parlay at

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Speaker 4: five seventy five? Like sign me up?

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Speaker 1: Will you?

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Speaker 3: Mark's Nick Chubb erection selection got a trademark that one.

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Speaker 3: Are we even going. Are we even betting anyone on

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Speaker 3: the Titans or are we just gonna move on?

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Speaker 4: Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, well after that one hits halfway

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Speaker 4: through the second quarter. I also like your guy Raybon

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Speaker 4: Jamiri DK around four to one to score here because he,

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Speaker 4: you know, he's operating as a full time wide receiver

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Speaker 4: right now. Had a ninety three percent routes run rate

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Speaker 4: last week, so I think even if Calvernly returns this week,

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Speaker 4: it's probably not going to impact DK that much. And

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Speaker 4: he's the return man. He gets designed Russ at ten,

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Speaker 4: so he has multiple paths to score here, so and

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Speaker 4: I think he's had like two or three near touchdowns

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Speaker 4: or touchdowns called back, so you know, he could have

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Speaker 4: even more touchdowns at this point in the season. So

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Speaker 4: I think he's thinking here at plus four hundred as well.

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Speaker 4: But obviously we're all gonna be watching for the direction

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Speaker 4: selection parlay here.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I mean, and then you got DK, which interesting.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think he's got about a double. He's almost

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Speaker 3: got double the expected touchdowns in my model than his

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Speaker 3: actual touchdowns, So yeah, I think he's he's a good

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Speaker 3: bet as well. Joe Bears Vikings, what do you like

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Speaker 3: in this.

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Speaker 2: One, I feel like I could use a evergreen video

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Speaker 2: for me for the last from the last three weeks

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Speaker 2: for the Bears team, because I'm just going to go

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Speaker 2: back to Omen Medes the Keys at this point. Every

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Speaker 2: time he's over four to one, I'm gonna keep running

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Speaker 2: it back. Twenty targets over the last three games Minnesota.

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Speaker 2: They blitz a ton play zone at a top five

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Speaker 2: right along with playing two high safety at the highest

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Speaker 2: rate in the NFL, which is good for Sekias because

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Speaker 2: against both of those defenses he leads the team in

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Speaker 2: targets per route run. It's also been a little bit

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Speaker 2: of a short range outlet for Caleb Williams because Williams,

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Speaker 2: and I'm sure you guys know this when you watch

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Speaker 2: the Bears, he is so off schedule and will improvise

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Speaker 2: a lot and he's just looking for some safety valves

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Speaker 2: a lot of the time, and Zakias has been that

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Speaker 2: position for him. It's either that or a doonsay, but

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Speaker 2: I think Zakias is who we want here, especially at

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Speaker 2: plus four fifty. On the Viking side, I'm not going

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Speaker 2: to go with Jalen Naylor because now after he scored

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Speaker 2: that touchdown, his odds have been steamed for this week,

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Speaker 2: but I mean TJ. Hawkinson was my initial lean, but

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Speaker 2: now if I'm seeing Josh Oliver back to practice, I

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Speaker 2: love him in this matchup. He's around ten to one.

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Speaker 2: He's only run thirty three routes this year. Guys, he

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Speaker 2: has three red zone targets and two touchdowns. Like, he

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Speaker 2: has the highest targets per ut run versus man coverage

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Speaker 2: of this season on the Vikings, and the Bears play

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Speaker 2: man at a top ten rates. So again, he might

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Speaker 2: only get like one to two targets, but they're probably

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Speaker 2: going to be end zone targets and with his ability

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Speaker 2: to block, he's probably going to be out there in

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Speaker 2: those goal line matchups and goalwide stand So a ten

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Speaker 2: to one. I love him in this matchup.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, if the Bears are playing man coverage and give

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Speaker 3: up a tight end hover, they they just weren't putting

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Speaker 3: a man on him, that's that's probably just Yeah, I

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Speaker 3: just sneak out there.

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Speaker 1: You could. I could definitely see it.

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Speaker 3: You know, they got the they got the full back back,

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Speaker 3: so a lot of guys to kind of account for.

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Speaker 3: He could get a big man to sneak out there

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Speaker 3: all right, Let's go to the Giants hosting the Green

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Speaker 3: Bay Packers.

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Speaker 4: Uh.

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Speaker 3: For the Packers, I'm gonna roll with Josh Jacobs two

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Speaker 3: or more touchdowns at plus two thirty. Giants run defense

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Speaker 3: has been terrible and Josh Jacobs is just a weekly

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Speaker 3: touchdown score for this Green Bay Packer team. Their receivers

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Speaker 3: somehow are injured again. I mean after that Eagle playoff

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Speaker 3: game when they were all dropping like flies, and then

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Speaker 3: they drafted a bunch of guys. I thought there's no

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Speaker 3: way the Packers would ever be short on receivers again.

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Speaker 3: But I mean multitude of guys on the injury report.

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Speaker 3: So gotta go with Josh Jacobs in a game that

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Speaker 3: the Packers should have in hand, although they don't tend

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Speaker 3: to score until the fourth quarter, so maybe you can

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Speaker 3: also go Jacob's last touchdown as well. We'd be surprised there.

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Speaker 3: And for the Giants, a couple of guys. One is

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Speaker 3: gunner O'showski at plus seven fifty. Now he saw the

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Speaker 3: snaps once Darius Slayton got hurt last week, so he

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Speaker 3: saw about a forty percent route rate. Now Oshwski has

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Speaker 3: seen you know, an end zone target and has seen

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Speaker 3: some kind of you know, valuable fantasy targets here. He

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Speaker 3: also returns kicks, so he's in a good spot. They

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Speaker 3: they used him more than a Ray Ray McCloud last week,

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Speaker 3: so that's good. And then another guy who's even longer

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Speaker 3: is they have Hodgens at ten to one. Now he's

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Speaker 3: a former Giant, but the fact that they signed him

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Speaker 3: off the Steeler practice squad that means he's on the

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Speaker 3: active roster probably means they intend for him to play.

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Speaker 3: And Green Bay does sometimes struggle with receivers with size.

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Speaker 3: A couple of weeks ago, remember that touchdown a metcalf,

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Speaker 3: So Hodgens could have.

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Speaker 1: A role here.

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Speaker 3: Remember Lil Jordan lit Humphrey is Colonel used to say, yeah,

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Speaker 3: played like one hundred percent of the snaps off the

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Speaker 3: off the practice squad a few weeks ago, and Ray

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Speaker 3: Ray McLeod did the same thing a couple of weeks ago.

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Speaker 3: So Isaiah Hodgens sneaky here. Remember he's been on this

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Speaker 3: team before, new new coach for the first time in

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Speaker 3: a while, so they maybe they try to, you know,

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Speaker 3: get some of that old school magic going. And if

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Speaker 3: Hodgens plays, his most likely uh snaps would come in

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Speaker 3: the red zone and we're we're talking about Jamis here,

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Speaker 3: so this is not this is not roughugh, so anything

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Speaker 3: could happen. So let's get Oshewski and who probably was

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Speaker 3: working on the practice guard with Jamis and you know,

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Speaker 3: in the second third team. And then Hodgens, who's been

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Speaker 3: you know, uh there before with uh with Kafka and whatnot.

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Speaker 3: So like both of those guys, sneaky if the Giants

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Speaker 3: score a touchdown at all. If not, you know, maybe

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Speaker 3: you take some Packers defense too, because it is Jamis here.

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Speaker 3: But uh, Tampa Bay at Buffalo Kerner could be some

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Speaker 3: weather in this one.

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Speaker 1: Who do you like?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, it could be pretty rainy there. But I

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Speaker 4: gotta go somebody, right, So on the Bucks side, I'm

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Speaker 4: gonna go Tess Johnson at plus two to eighty. He's

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Speaker 4: just been playing super well with Mike Evans and Chris

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Speaker 4: Godwin out four touchdowns now in the last four games.

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Speaker 4: You know, he has a smaller frame, so you know,

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Speaker 4: he's probably not going to be a red zone target,

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Speaker 4: but he doesn't need to score in the red zone.

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Speaker 4: He could score from anywhere on the field.

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Speaker 1: Red zone touchdout last week. No, well, I mean.

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Speaker 4: I just say, we have red zone, and you know he's.

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Speaker 3: Tell you.

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Speaker 1: I just don't stand him short in the red zone.

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Speaker 4: Man. Literally, I'm just saying that it's the most predictive thing,

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Speaker 4: is like an end zone target. But he could score

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Speaker 4: from anywhere. He can catch it and run for fifty.

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Speaker 4: That's my point is he could score from anyone on

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Speaker 4: the field. And did you see his celebration where he

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Speaker 4: did the backflip. I swear he did like two backflips.

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Speaker 4: He's an athletic freak, so I think he was a

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Speaker 4: sleeper heading into the air that I didn't really know about.

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Speaker 4: But he's really impressed me, and you know, Godwin return

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Speaker 4: of practice. But he's still not expected to play this week,

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Speaker 4: So don't let those you know sway you off of him.

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Speaker 4: Loved tez Here at plus two eighty and then on

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Speaker 4: the bill side, I'm going to go with Jackson Hawes,

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Speaker 4: the other rookie, at plus five hundred, because it does

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Speaker 4: sound like Dalton Kinkaid's gonna miss this week. He's weak

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Speaker 4: to weak, and I don't think he's practiced yet, so

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Speaker 4: I'm I'm kind of ruling him out in my projections

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Speaker 4: right now, but I think a lot of people are

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Speaker 4: going to gravitate to Dawson Knox, who should step up

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Speaker 4: as well as always with kin Kid out. But I

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Speaker 4: think the rookie is sneaky here because he's been running

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Speaker 4: similar routes as Knox when kin Kaid was healthy around

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Speaker 4: you know, the thirty forty percent range. But he has

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Speaker 4: two touchdowns on the season to Knox has one. And

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Speaker 4: more importantly, he's seen like twice as many targets, where

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Speaker 4: you know, he's seeing a target on twenty two percent

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Speaker 4: of his routes, whereas Knocks is around you know, eleven percent,

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Speaker 4: which is what you expect. But you know, Hawes could

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Speaker 4: kind of fill in a Kinkaid type role, especially when

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Speaker 4: they get into the red zone, they're going to have,

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Speaker 4: you know, heavier personnel with two tight ends. So I

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Speaker 4: think both Knocks and Hawes could be out there. We've

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Speaker 4: already seen him score a couple of times this year,

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Speaker 4: so I like him here at five to one.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and the Bill's got to get those tight ends

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Speaker 3: going because I mean it's like the the receiver room

376
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Speaker 3: right now is just you know, everyone's kind of zoning

377
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Speaker 3: in on them, and you know, like Coleman and not

378
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Speaker 3: being able to be coverage and there's gonna be a

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Speaker 3: lot of blitzing.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I like that.

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Speaker 3: And Ted Johnson two career red zone targets. He has

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Speaker 3: never not scored a touchdown on a red zone target.

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Speaker 4: The end zone targets. End zone targets is what I

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Speaker 4: was getting at. But he could probably still catch those two.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, No, I mean he never.

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Speaker 3: He doesn't look as small, he doesn't play as small

387
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Speaker 3: as he's.

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Speaker 1: Listening Chargers at Jags.

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Speaker 3: So this is one where the Chargers go across the

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Speaker 3: country outdoors, maybe some humidity here. Uh, these games are

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Speaker 3: always interesting, Joe, Who do you like for Chargers Jaguars?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I haven't gotten the Chargers on this

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Speaker 2: show in a few weeks, and I feel like now

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Speaker 2: that I've gotten them, I can't not take Aronda Gadston

395
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Speaker 2: in this spot, especially when I'm seeing him over plus

396
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Speaker 2: two hundred. There's no way that I can listen to

397
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Speaker 2: Sean talk about how awesome he is the Darren Waller

398
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Speaker 2: comps and then see him at plus two twenty and

399
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Speaker 2: be like, eh, I don't know if I see it like,

400
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Speaker 2: especially because Wednesday that was the big thing too. He's

401
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Speaker 2: back full practice on Wednesday and practiced again today. I

402
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Speaker 2: thought he might have been hurt from an injury from

403
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Speaker 2: last week against the Steelers, but again, only two touchdowns

404
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Speaker 2: this year, but just been a beast over the middle

405
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Speaker 2: for the Chargers. Second highest targets per ret run and

406
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Speaker 2: yards per rett run versus own coverages. Jagsplay zone at

407
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Speaker 2: a top ten rate. They're twenty second in defensive DVA

408
00:19:44,440 --> 00:19:47,720
Speaker 2: versus the past twenty fourth against tight ends. They've allowed

409
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Speaker 2: seven touchdowns to the position. So Gadston, if you can

410
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Speaker 2: get him over plus two hundred, grab him right away.

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Speaker 2: This one might be my favorite of the week, though.

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Speaker 2: On the Jag side, and it's Jacoby Myers. He's around

413
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Speaker 2: plus two to forty five plus two to fifty. Playing

414
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Speaker 2: mostly out of the slot with the Raiders, I kind

415
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Speaker 2: of expect him to slide back into that spot. He

416
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Speaker 2: only played forty four percent of snaps in his first

417
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Speaker 2: game there, but again only like four days with the team,

418
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Speaker 2: so I fully expect to see a huge boost in

419
00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:16,320
Speaker 2: snaps and route participation. He was typically over ninety percent

420
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Speaker 2: with the Raiders and even like that last year with

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Speaker 2: the Patriots, and I think he should be pretty familiar

422
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Speaker 2: was with the Chargers defense at this point. Playing with

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Speaker 2: the Raiders the last few seasons, the Chargers they play

424
00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:29,359
Speaker 2: zone and too high safety a lot, so that's usually

425
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Speaker 2: where Myers has actually thrived against with the Raiders, and

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00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:34,919
Speaker 2: he would usually see a target rate bump compared to

427
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Speaker 2: when he was playing against man coverage. And then of

428
00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:39,400
Speaker 2: course when you look down the line on this Jaguars

429
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Speaker 2: receiver standpoint, Brian Thomas Junior, like he is back at practice,

430
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Speaker 2: but he hasn't really been fully connected with Trevor Lawrence

431
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Speaker 2: this year. He's just not been a good output for

432
00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:52,000
Speaker 2: a wide receiver this year. So Jacoby Myers, it's not

433
00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:53,520
Speaker 2: like they only gave up, like, you know, a seventh

434
00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:55,680
Speaker 2: round pick. They gave up some good draft currency. I

435
00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:57,680
Speaker 2: think they expect to use him. So anything over plus

436
00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:00,440
Speaker 2: two fifty or probably plus two thirty for Jacobi, I

437
00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:01,080
Speaker 2: love that pick.

438
00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:05,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's a hard projection for the Jags, but

439
00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:07,800
Speaker 3: I agree. I think Jacobe Myers, they probably want to

440
00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:10,160
Speaker 3: get him involved, you know, they they they're going all

441
00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:13,280
Speaker 3: in here and watching that you know that precious. I mean,

442
00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:15,960
Speaker 3: they had a chance to really kind of cement things

443
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:18,440
Speaker 3: and they've just let some games slip away lately. Uh,

444
00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:20,639
Speaker 3: so yeah, this is this is when this is like

445
00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:22,720
Speaker 3: a muscle win. This is a high the highest leverage game,

446
00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:26,560
Speaker 3: I believe, playoff wise, like for both teams. Uh, that's

447
00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:28,760
Speaker 3: been that we've seen all year yet, so this this

448
00:21:28,760 --> 00:21:31,280
Speaker 3: should be a really competitive game too. So I think

449
00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:34,040
Speaker 3: Meyers snaps, bump up and h and gets into.

450
00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:36,600
Speaker 1: Monster Seahawks rams.

451
00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:40,639
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with two revenge touchdown plays that I

452
00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:44,120
Speaker 3: think are undervalued for the Seahawks. I didn't think I'd

453
00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:46,320
Speaker 3: get here this year, but let's go with Cooper Cup

454
00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:48,800
Speaker 3: at four to one. Uh, you know, if they're ever

455
00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:51,400
Speaker 3: gonna try to scheme a guy a touchdown and dis offense,

456
00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:53,240
Speaker 3: I mean it can get cute at times because it's

457
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:54,440
Speaker 3: been so monstrous.

458
00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:58,000
Speaker 1: Uh it's Cooper Cup. So you might see something weird.

459
00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:00,359
Speaker 3: Around the goal line and maybe an end around, you know,

460
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:02,240
Speaker 3: just a little one of those like one hit, one

461
00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:05,359
Speaker 3: step slant type of deals. I think he's only touchdown

462
00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:08,280
Speaker 3: this year was like a three yarder. So White Cooper

463
00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:10,080
Speaker 3: Cup at four to one. You know, Horton's still a

464
00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:13,160
Speaker 3: little banged up, and you know, Cup and Shaheed kind

465
00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:16,560
Speaker 3: of split snaps last week, so Cup's gonna be around

466
00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:19,359
Speaker 3: his normal season long route, right around seventy percent.

467
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:20,920
Speaker 1: I believe in this one.

468
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:24,280
Speaker 3: Maybe people will shy away because of a Shaheed and

469
00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 3: just Chasen's been playing so well, but I think this

470
00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:28,760
Speaker 3: is a good spot for Cup to get one. And

471
00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:31,879
Speaker 3: then on the other side, it's called with Kobe Parkinson

472
00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:35,320
Speaker 3: at nine to one. It's like Ram's touchdown roulette here,

473
00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:37,520
Speaker 3: if you just pick your tight favorite tight end. I'm

474
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:40,960
Speaker 3: going with Parkinson. He's got the longest odds fifty five

475
00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:44,160
Speaker 3: percent of the pass Now. Parkinson played a week ago

476
00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:47,280
Speaker 3: that was tied for third on the team behind the

477
00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:52,000
Speaker 3: you know, Adams and Nakua, tied to Xavier Smith as

478
00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:54,080
Speaker 3: the third wide receiver. And these tight ends have been

479
00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:56,200
Speaker 3: all rotating in the Rams have been playing a ton

480
00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:59,040
Speaker 3: of one to three personnel, So all the tight ends

481
00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:01,480
Speaker 3: I've seen big bump and they're all playing, you know,

482
00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:04,280
Speaker 3: thirty five to fifty percent of the snaps.

483
00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:05,800
Speaker 1: But Parkinson led the way last week.

484
00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:08,679
Speaker 3: And he's a guy that's been kind of popping weightly. Uh,

485
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:10,360
Speaker 3: they've been looking to get the ball to him. He's

486
00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:12,960
Speaker 3: he can even make some explosive play, so he doesn't

487
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:16,000
Speaker 3: need like a you know, five to ten yard target.

488
00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:18,680
Speaker 3: Sometimes he can go for you know, fifteen twenty twenty

489
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:22,280
Speaker 3: five yard a dot and still uh take bring it in.

490
00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:25,040
Speaker 3: So like Parkinson at nine to one, I think he's undervalued.

491
00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 3: All these rams tight ends. You have to kind of

492
00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:29,720
Speaker 3: bump up their projection based relatives to their season one

493
00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:31,720
Speaker 3: numbers because they've been They've been at this now for

494
00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:34,640
Speaker 3: about three four weeks straight of just playing a ton

495
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 3: of of one to three personnel. And I think you

496
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:39,280
Speaker 3: want to do that too against the Seahawks, who love

497
00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:41,600
Speaker 3: to you know, sit back and too high and play

498
00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:44,240
Speaker 3: a lot of his own. So love the matchup for

499
00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:47,800
Speaker 3: Parkinson in this one. Next up, we got the other

500
00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:55,840
Speaker 3: NFC West Divisional clash, Niners Cardinals and no Heart, no

501
00:23:55,920 --> 00:24:02,439
Speaker 3: Marvin Harrison, Nose Jones, And we got what Day Weaver,

502
00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:05,600
Speaker 3: we Goticelli Kerner.

503
00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:07,439
Speaker 1: I mean, talk to him here. I know you got it.

504
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:08,639
Speaker 1: I know you got to be looking at one of

505
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:09,520
Speaker 1: these cards receivers.

506
00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:11,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I'll just cut to the chase and I'm

507
00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:16,160
Speaker 4: going with Xavier Weaver here at plus seven fifty. Like

508
00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 4: you said, they're they're already without Marvin Harrison Junior and

509
00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:22,840
Speaker 4: Zay Jones, you know, suffered that season ending achilles tear,

510
00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:26,359
Speaker 4: so they're very thin. OI receiver, he went on ir

511
00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:30,000
Speaker 4: as well, oh god, oh yeah that's right, Yeah, yeah, yeah,

512
00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:32,359
Speaker 4: he would have been a sneaky bet here. He's always

513
00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 4: a solid like red zone guy. So yeah, I mean

514
00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:37,440
Speaker 4: they're super thin. They'll probably run more too tight end personnel.

515
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 4: So Elijah Higgins is also worth a look, but it

516
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:42,639
Speaker 4: looks like they they lowered his odds quite a bit.

517
00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 4: So I think Weaver's sneaky here and the player. Most

518
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:47,760
Speaker 4: people are gonna go who when he scores touchdown, But

519
00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:49,560
Speaker 4: I'm not going to be that shocked if he scores

520
00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:52,520
Speaker 4: because they have no one else. And you know, as

521
00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:56,240
Speaker 4: Joel mentioned, you know, Jacoby Brissette really elevates this passing game,

522
00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:59,080
Speaker 4: so everybody's kind of more likely to score a touchdown.

523
00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:01,600
Speaker 4: And Weave, you know, he's not like a good receiver,

524
00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:05,720
Speaker 4: but he's he stepped up at times, and in preseason

525
00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:07,480
Speaker 4: he looks fine. So I think he's in a spot

526
00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:10,680
Speaker 4: where he could see like a forty to fifty routes,

527
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:12,880
Speaker 4: run right here and catch one deep. So I think

528
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:15,160
Speaker 4: just at plus seven to fifty for somebody that might

529
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:17,720
Speaker 4: be out there quite a bit. He's certainly worth a

530
00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:20,879
Speaker 4: sprinkle here. But my favorite bet in this game is

531
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:23,919
Speaker 4: Kyle Yustcheck at ten to one. And I think I

532
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 4: said last week just any time you can get Juice

533
00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:30,040
Speaker 4: at ten to one or higher, probably worth it. You know,

534
00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:32,920
Speaker 4: the last three seasons, you know, his fair price should

535
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:36,920
Speaker 4: be around plus six hundred plus seven hundred. Last week,

536
00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:39,480
Speaker 4: I gave him out at thirteen to one as my

537
00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:43,680
Speaker 4: spicy player on our touchdown segment on Action Playbook Live.

538
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:45,879
Speaker 4: And if you're watching that game, he nearly scored. He

539
00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:49,520
Speaker 4: got down to the like one inch line, and Brian

540
00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:52,240
Speaker 4: Robinson Junior ran it in ran after that. But maybe

541
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 4: they feel like, you know, Juice is owed one, so

542
00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:56,960
Speaker 4: he might get something schemed up near the goal line

543
00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:00,840
Speaker 4: this week. So and again when I gave him out

544
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:03,280
Speaker 4: last week. Juice is the kind of guy where he's

545
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:05,240
Speaker 4: not gonna get like a dump off in the flat

546
00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 4: like he typically sees, you know, targets downfield, broken coverage

547
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:11,480
Speaker 4: kind of play, so he could score a longer touchdown

548
00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:13,959
Speaker 4: if needed. But I like Juice here as well at

549
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:14,480
Speaker 4: ten to one.

550
00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, Gordon is in the last game against the Cardinals

551
00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:21,199
Speaker 3: too early. I think that was his only score if

552
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:21,960
Speaker 3: I'm not mistaken.

553
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:24,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it was won this year. I think

554
00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:27,520
Speaker 4: he had three last year last.

555
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 1: The Cardinals too.

556
00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:31,520
Speaker 3: Last year though he scored twice in twenty twenty five

557
00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:32,480
Speaker 3: against the Cardinals.

558
00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:35,800
Speaker 4: All right, so his faar should be like minus what

559
00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:38,160
Speaker 4: three hundred something?

560
00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 1: Okay?

561
00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:44,800
Speaker 2: Sign Yeah, it goes Christian McCaffrey, then Juice, then everybody

562
00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:45,560
Speaker 2: else on the Niners.

563
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:47,000
Speaker 4: Yep, yeah, exactly.

564
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:52,520
Speaker 3: Ravens Browns, This total husband going down. Brown's excellent on

565
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:58,600
Speaker 3: defense at home, Jill NFC North should be a hard

566
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 3: played kind of there. The Ravens are desperate, but they're

567
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:05,320
Speaker 3: a little banged up, and the Browns aren't quitting yet.

568
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:08,760
Speaker 3: They're kind of getting injured guys back. So who are

569
00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:09,440
Speaker 3: you looking at here?

570
00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:10,000
Speaker 1: Yeah?

571
00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 2: And the weather I think is going to play a

572
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:14,200
Speaker 2: bit of a part on this game too, part of

573
00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:16,160
Speaker 2: the reason why I think that total is going down.

574
00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:18,639
Speaker 2: So on the Ravens side, I'm going to keep it

575
00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:21,959
Speaker 2: real simple. Mark Andrews right now is over plus two hundred.

576
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 2: I completely disagree with that price. They should probably be

577
00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:27,600
Speaker 2: closer to plus one sixty, like three touchdowns over the

578
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:31,080
Speaker 2: last two games all five this year with Lamar Jackson

579
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:34,280
Speaker 2: a quarterback, and has shown even just since the start

580
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:36,359
Speaker 2: of last year, there's a decent sample now over the

581
00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:40,240
Speaker 2: last couple of seasons where he bears against man coverage

582
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:43,400
Speaker 2: and he's had a higher target rate, higher yards run

583
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:45,800
Speaker 2: rate against man defense compared to his own. Leads the

584
00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:48,879
Speaker 2: Ravens with three touchdowns versus man defenses this year. Obviously

585
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:51,240
Speaker 2: the Browns they play a ton of man, ton of

586
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:54,800
Speaker 2: single high safety. And again, if the weather is going

587
00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:56,880
Speaker 2: to be an issue, I don't want like Rashad Babeman

588
00:27:57,000 --> 00:27:59,560
Speaker 2: or DeAndre Hopkins. I want those short range options like

589
00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:02,240
Speaker 2: so Also, I would also say I brought up the

590
00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:04,959
Speaker 2: Jacoby Myers part about being pretty familiar with that defense.

591
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:07,240
Speaker 2: I think Mark Andrews at this point has got this

592
00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:09,600
Speaker 2: Jim Schwartz led Browns defense figured out. I mean, he

593
00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:12,480
Speaker 2: scored both games against them last year. He probably almost

594
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:14,800
Speaker 2: had a touchdown against them earlier this year, but then

595
00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:17,200
Speaker 2: they just went crazy with the wide receivers. So Mark

596
00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:19,480
Speaker 2: Andrews to me, anytime you can get him over plus

597
00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:22,439
Speaker 2: two hundred week, he's an auto bet for me. On

598
00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:25,399
Speaker 2: the Brown side, I was kind of fading him last week,

599
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:27,639
Speaker 2: but this week I like him in the spot. I

600
00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:29,760
Speaker 2: actually took him when they played the Ravens last time,

601
00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:32,359
Speaker 2: and that's such a tilman. He's around plus five fifty

602
00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:34,040
Speaker 2: and I bet him in week two when they played

603
00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:37,040
Speaker 2: him got super lucky because he got a touchdown off

604
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:39,760
Speaker 2: of a tip pass. But I still like him again

605
00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:42,680
Speaker 2: in this matchup because the Ravens, just like the Browns,

606
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:44,160
Speaker 2: they play a lot of man, a lot of single

607
00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:46,360
Speaker 2: high safety, and when he came back from injury last week,

608
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:48,760
Speaker 2: I thought it was really encouraging to see him still play.

609
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 2: Seventy three percent of snaps he saw an end zone target.

610
00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:54,959
Speaker 2: He usually typically sees a bump in targets versus man coverage.

611
00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 2: He caught two touchdowns this season versus man defense. So

612
00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:01,160
Speaker 2: Brown's being huge home underdogs even with the weather, I

613
00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 2: think they could be throwing a lot in the second half.

614
00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 2: So I love him in this spot around plus five fifty.

615
00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:09,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think he's I think he is sneaky, you know,

616
00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:11,640
Speaker 3: whether or not. You know, he's just a guy who

617
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 3: I mean, Jerry Judy went off last week, so probably

618
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 3: gets a lot of single coverage this week two, So

619
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:17,600
Speaker 3: good spot.

620
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:19,600
Speaker 1: For him. If the Browns can get it in the

621
00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:23,160
Speaker 1: end zone, big if. But if they can, it's a big,

622
00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:24,000
Speaker 1: big yeah.

623
00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:28,840
Speaker 3: Speaking of guy, you know another the Broncos are hosting

624
00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:33,000
Speaker 3: the Chiefs and they've looked really shaky. Ended up our guy,

625
00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:35,320
Speaker 3: Troy Franklin ended up hitting for us I think on

626
00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:37,320
Speaker 3: the show last week on Thursday, and that that was

627
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:40,880
Speaker 3: just it after he scored. So this Broncos team a

628
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 3: little bit shaky. I'm gonna go with their running back RJ.

629
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 3: Harvey at plus one twenty one kind of the truck.

630
00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:48,920
Speaker 3: But there is some uncertainy is exactly how much he's gonna,

631
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:51,120
Speaker 3: you know, play, how much work, how much of the

632
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:54,320
Speaker 3: workload for Dobbins, he's gonna assume. But I want to

633
00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:55,880
Speaker 3: get a guy like Harvey in this spot because the

634
00:29:55,920 --> 00:30:00,320
Speaker 3: Chiefs have just given up really nothing, you know, to

635
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:03,280
Speaker 3: to the receivers and tight ends compared to running backs.

636
00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:05,640
Speaker 3: I mean, they're most of their touchdowns this year have

637
00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:07,480
Speaker 3: come against running backs. You know, They're gonna play a

638
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:10,120
Speaker 3: lot of man coverage and and do different things that

639
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:12,440
Speaker 3: are probably gonna you know, kind of confused bo Nicks.

640
00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 1: So I don't really.

641
00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:19,280
Speaker 3: Want to venture into the Broncos into the Broncos pass game,

642
00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:22,080
Speaker 3: Harvey can catch one, but there's a chance he does.

643
00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:25,080
Speaker 3: See that normal Dobbins workload already was starting to see

644
00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 3: more work in the red zone as well, so like him.

645
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:30,400
Speaker 3: And then on the chief side going with their running

646
00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:33,800
Speaker 3: back as well. Uh and at the Broncos, they've got

647
00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:37,480
Speaker 3: two touchdowns to wide receivers all year long. It's really

648
00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:39,960
Speaker 3: been the running back show if you want to get

649
00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:42,960
Speaker 3: a touchdown against the Broncos as well. So Genti scorer

650
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:45,160
Speaker 3: last week, I believe the checko's gonna miss. You know,

651
00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:47,120
Speaker 3: early in the week reads that he needs some more time.

652
00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:50,840
Speaker 3: So I'm I'm thinking Hunt gets another one of these

653
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:53,560
Speaker 3: massive workload games. We saw it, you know, going into

654
00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:56,240
Speaker 3: the by thought burchhard Smith would play a bigger role

655
00:30:56,240 --> 00:30:57,920
Speaker 3: than he did, and he was just around his normal

656
00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:00,640
Speaker 3: season snap rate, and Kareem Hunt was the guy, you

657
00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:03,960
Speaker 3: know getting the work and you know Mitchell was inactive

658
00:31:04,000 --> 00:31:06,120
Speaker 3: quite Edwards Alayer mixed in for a few snaps, but

659
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:08,320
Speaker 3: a hunch would be as fresh as ever coming off

660
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:12,520
Speaker 3: the buy. So like both backs in this Chiefs Broncos

661
00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:16,440
Speaker 3: divisional matchup, we'll get to our favorite Sunday Anytime Touchdown

662
00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:19,560
Speaker 3: Parway for Xenterbidy DraftKings in a moment. Remember we hit

663
00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:22,240
Speaker 3: the twenty two to one last week. But before we continue,

664
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:24,600
Speaker 3: don't forget sign up for Action Pro for real time

665
00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 3: pick aworts from experts like Sean Kerner, Joggolant, myself as

666
00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 3: the entire Action Network squad. Plus, you can access our

667
00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:35,200
Speaker 3: pro projections power by Kerner and our predictive analytics team.

668
00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:38,000
Speaker 3: Just go to Action Network dot Com slash Pro and

669
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:41,080
Speaker 3: get twenty dollars off when you use the promo code

670
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Speaker 3: Pod twenty. That's Pod two zero, So don't miss out

671
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672
00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:52,000
Speaker 3: dot Com slash Pro and use promo code Pod twenty

673
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674
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 1: All right, before we.

675
00:31:57,120 --> 00:32:01,160
Speaker 3: Get into the Sunday Night and Monday night primetime slates,

676
00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:06,840
Speaker 3: let's run it back with our favorite Sunday Daytime Anytime

677
00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:10,840
Speaker 3: Touchdown parlay presented by DraftKings.

678
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:11,080
Speaker 1: Again.

679
00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:13,160
Speaker 3: Last week we hit the twenty two to one without

680
00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:17,000
Speaker 3: Pierce Treat mcbridy, Jamison Williams current, You're up first, where

681
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:18,560
Speaker 3: you're going for Week eleven?

682
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:21,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna go with my guy, Greg Dulcich here

683
00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:24,800
Speaker 4: at plus four fifty. You know, the Dolphins are really

684
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:27,320
Speaker 4: banged up at tight end and Dulcich is sort of

685
00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:29,160
Speaker 4: in the Darren Waller roll right now as the lead

686
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:31,760
Speaker 4: tight end. You know, he was a third round pick

687
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 4: just a few years ago. My comp for him as TJ. Howkinson,

688
00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:38,360
Speaker 4: and he's produced whenever he's been given a chance. And

689
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:41,080
Speaker 4: he's still just twenty five entering his prime. So things

690
00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:43,920
Speaker 4: a good spot to buy in on Dulcach at plus

691
00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 4: four fifty, Jill, where you're.

692
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:48,840
Speaker 2: Going, I'm gonna go with Jakobe Myers. I think he's

693
00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 2: gonna make a big impact against that Chargers defense, and

694
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 2: I think Kim and Trevor Lawrence they are gonna connect

695
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:54,560
Speaker 2: and find him in the end zone.

696
00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:59,200
Speaker 3: I'm gonna roll with Greg Dortch at plus two to seventy.

697
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:04,280
Speaker 3: Love Dortsch because he's sorry running a backfield snap last week,

698
00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:07,120
Speaker 3: a short yardage backfield snap and got in the end zone.

699
00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:09,400
Speaker 1: They love to run with him, and.

700
00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:11,880
Speaker 3: They also will have to use him as one of

701
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:14,720
Speaker 3: their top three wide receivers in this spot. So he

702
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:17,600
Speaker 3: just had He's a very efficient guy, a smaller guy

703
00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:20,600
Speaker 3: that you know is not always going going to play

704
00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:21,720
Speaker 3: a ton of snaps.

705
00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:22,600
Speaker 1: Under normal circumstances.

706
00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:25,480
Speaker 3: But this is a game where against a bad Niner defense,

707
00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 3: they could unwish him. So love him at plus to

708
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:36,280
Speaker 3: seventy parlay Docic Jacoby Myers and Greg Dorts anytime touchdowns

709
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:40,880
Speaker 3: you get sixty six to one parlay odds on DraftKings.

710
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:44,880
Speaker 3: That was our favorite anytime touchdown parlay for Sunday Afternoon

711
00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:48,720
Speaker 3: Week eleven, presented by DraftKings. All right, let's get into

712
00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 3: Sunday Night football. I'll have a write up on this

713
00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:55,080
Speaker 3: one on the Action Network later in the week. Lions

714
00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:57,080
Speaker 3: going to Philly to take on.

715
00:33:58,680 --> 00:34:00,560
Speaker 1: The Eagle, who.

716
00:34:02,360 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 3: There was no scoring in that game last week. Now

717
00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 3: you got him back on primetime again. So if you

718
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:09,360
Speaker 3: bet anytime touchdowns, I hope you had what was Devontae

719
00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:12,160
Speaker 3: Smith and Josh Jacobs because you didn't have those guys,

720
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:14,400
Speaker 3: you are very very.

721
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:16,640
Speaker 1: Kind of lonely with your bank row there.

722
00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:20,920
Speaker 3: But Kerner, who do you like for the Lions Eagles

723
00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:22,600
Speaker 3: Sunday Night football clash year?

724
00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:25,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm going to go chalk you here with a

725
00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:28,600
Speaker 4: Monroe Saint Brown at plus one thirty. You know, last

726
00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:32,839
Speaker 4: week Dan Campbell took over the play calling duties, and

727
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:35,600
Speaker 4: I think it's going to help elevate an already elite

728
00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:38,640
Speaker 4: Lions offense. And it was actually the first game all

729
00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:41,480
Speaker 4: season they had an above average pass rate over expected,

730
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:44,239
Speaker 4: so maybe Campbell wants to be more pass heavy. It

731
00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:46,400
Speaker 4: was one of the takeaways I took from that. But

732
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 4: I think, you know, he's going to elevate the offense. Granted,

733
00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:51,719
Speaker 4: this is a much tougher matchup against the Eagles and

734
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:54,759
Speaker 4: the Commanders, but I still want to invest in their

735
00:34:54,840 --> 00:34:56,400
Speaker 4: upside here and go the safer.

736
00:34:56,200 --> 00:34:57,359
Speaker 1: Out with al Monrow.

737
00:34:57,520 --> 00:35:00,359
Speaker 4: And yes, I didn't go with Isaacislass, So yeah, he's

738
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:02,960
Speaker 4: gonna score a touchdown here, just putting that out there.

739
00:35:04,080 --> 00:35:06,560
Speaker 1: I definitely thought about it, but I'm going on with you.

740
00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:09,000
Speaker 1: I'll let you go first. Where you going.

741
00:35:09,560 --> 00:35:11,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna keep it real simple. Just going with

742
00:35:11,560 --> 00:35:13,920
Speaker 2: Jalen hurts, especially when you can get them at plus odds.

743
00:35:13,960 --> 00:35:16,760
Speaker 2: You know that Detroit's gonna play a lot of man coverage.

744
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:20,399
Speaker 2: They'll be scrambling opportunities for him. There's chances there could

745
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:22,160
Speaker 2: be a DPI in the end zone. He could get

746
00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:24,160
Speaker 2: a touch push there, So I feel like he's a

747
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:25,920
Speaker 2: nice little anchor leg for this parlay.

748
00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:29,920
Speaker 1: What's that you say Detroit plays what man coverage?

749
00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 3: I think that's AJ Brown's theme music, Sweaky Wheel plus

750
00:35:33,719 --> 00:35:36,680
Speaker 3: one forty. I mean, come on, like they're going to

751
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:38,600
Speaker 3: at some point they're going to have to get this

752
00:35:38,640 --> 00:35:40,719
Speaker 3: guy to the ball. They can't let him squeak and

753
00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:43,239
Speaker 3: just you know, make a scene for too long. And

754
00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:46,720
Speaker 3: this is a perfect matchup for it. Man coverage, Lions

755
00:35:46,719 --> 00:35:52,960
Speaker 3: defense pretty shaky. Thirteen touchdowns allowed to opposing wide receivers.

756
00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:56,200
Speaker 3: That is near the top of the league. And you

757
00:35:56,200 --> 00:36:00,600
Speaker 3: know Detroit only five touchdowns allowed to running back and

758
00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:03,920
Speaker 3: only five out, so fivele out to tight ends, five

759
00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:07,680
Speaker 3: out to running backs, and thirteen to wide receivers. That

760
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:10,680
Speaker 3: is a nice little ratio there. I think that makes

761
00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:13,799
Speaker 3: AJ a little bit more likely. Hear they've given up

762
00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:16,960
Speaker 3: eighteen passing touchdowns on the year as well, have the Lions,

763
00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:22,000
Speaker 3: So like them to give Jayalen an aj a reason

764
00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:24,760
Speaker 3: not to not to be for at least one week.

765
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:28,520
Speaker 3: But you partway these three pretty chalky picks, if I

766
00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:32,400
Speaker 3: must say, together Elnra Jalen Hurts and A. J. Brown

767
00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:36,080
Speaker 3: ad draftings get eleven to one, so still pretty juicy,

768
00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:39,560
Speaker 3: you know, pretty solid, you know, parlay for three chalky picks,

769
00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:42,160
Speaker 3: and I can see all these guys getting it done

770
00:36:42,239 --> 00:36:49,920
Speaker 3: here Monday night football Cowboys at Raiders, Kerner who are looking.

771
00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:50,360
Speaker 1: At in this one.

772
00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:53,319
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go chalking again here with Jake Ferguson at

773
00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:56,239
Speaker 4: plus one eighty. You know, as you mentioned on our

774
00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:58,920
Speaker 4: productions pod, this is just a really good spot for

775
00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:01,800
Speaker 4: Ferguson against the right defense that you know plays on

776
00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:04,440
Speaker 4: at the fifth highest rate. Ferguson tends to see a

777
00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:07,239
Speaker 4: little bit more work against zone coverage. So he's like

778
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:10,319
Speaker 4: popping in my model. He's in my top five in

779
00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:13,160
Speaker 4: my fancy rankings, and I'm showing some value on him

780
00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:16,839
Speaker 4: here to score. So plus one eighty, you know, show

781
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:18,200
Speaker 4: a little bit of about here have it, you know,

782
00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:21,279
Speaker 4: projected closer to plus one sixty, But this is this

783
00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:23,240
Speaker 4: is a good spot for Ferguson.

784
00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:25,840
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, Ferguson.

785
00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:28,040
Speaker 3: I mean I think he's only been out of my

786
00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:31,080
Speaker 3: top five like once in the past few months.

787
00:37:31,239 --> 00:37:32,560
Speaker 1: He's just been a monster this year.

788
00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:34,680
Speaker 3: That kind of would have came out of nowhere a

789
00:37:34,719 --> 00:37:36,600
Speaker 3: little bit, you know, we knew he was, we knew

790
00:37:36,600 --> 00:37:38,200
Speaker 3: he was still hanging around, But I mean, I don't

791
00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:41,840
Speaker 3: think anyone saw this season coming. Jill Ferguson playing like

792
00:37:41,920 --> 00:37:43,319
Speaker 3: the guy you're about to pick.

793
00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:46,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, you want to talk about Chalk brock Bowers right now,

794
00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:50,839
Speaker 2: and even odds at DraftKings, I'm gonna add him at

795
00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:53,800
Speaker 2: this point. I almost thought about going with Trey Tucker

796
00:37:53,840 --> 00:37:56,000
Speaker 2: in this spot, just to be loyal to my guy

797
00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:58,839
Speaker 2: doctor Nick Giffin in the Rodo doc era here, But

798
00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:01,640
Speaker 2: I just think Rock Bauers is on another level, and

799
00:38:01,640 --> 00:38:03,680
Speaker 2: I think he's gonna score a touchdown against this Dallas

800
00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:05,400
Speaker 2: defense that is not stopping anybody.

801
00:38:06,640 --> 00:38:10,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, and love Ferguson, and I also love George Pickens,

802
00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:13,280
Speaker 3: and that's who I'm gonna go with at plus one fifty.

803
00:38:13,320 --> 00:38:13,560
Speaker 2: Now.

804
00:38:14,239 --> 00:38:17,720
Speaker 3: Ferguson tears up zones. Dak is really tearing up zones.

805
00:38:18,080 --> 00:38:21,680
Speaker 3: But George Pickens has just been unreal against zone coverage

806
00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:25,600
Speaker 3: this year. Five touchdowns against zone coverage. I just just

807
00:38:25,719 --> 00:38:29,560
Speaker 3: unheard of for a wide receiver. You know, usually it's

808
00:38:29,560 --> 00:38:32,600
Speaker 3: the tight ends and the and the back's doing more

809
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:35,279
Speaker 3: more of the damage against zone. But George Pickens has

810
00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:39,800
Speaker 3: really been a monster this year for the Cowboys against

811
00:38:39,920 --> 00:38:43,040
Speaker 3: zone coverage and those five touchdowns I believe, let's see,

812
00:38:43,080 --> 00:38:44,279
Speaker 3: is that is that the league lead?

813
00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:44,880
Speaker 1: Let's see?

814
00:38:45,080 --> 00:38:49,480
Speaker 3: Uh yeah, George Pickens tied with a Mecca Abuka for

815
00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 3: the league lead in touchdowns versus zone according to PFF.

816
00:38:55,520 --> 00:38:59,080
Speaker 3: Pickens number six in yardage versus zone as well. So

817
00:38:59,600 --> 00:39:01,239
Speaker 3: you wouldn't you think of Pickings is more of a

818
00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:03,680
Speaker 3: guy who's gonna just beat man coverage, but he's so

819
00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:06,080
Speaker 3: athletic that he could just kind of run away and

820
00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:09,480
Speaker 3: run away from zones. So love Pickings in this spot

821
00:39:10,360 --> 00:39:12,680
Speaker 3: against this Raider defense that plays zone at the top

822
00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:17,920
Speaker 3: five rate. So if we go Ferguson, Bowers, Pickings, another

823
00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:21,399
Speaker 3: kind of chalky one, but still thirteen to one parlay odds.

824
00:39:21,480 --> 00:39:23,719
Speaker 3: So if you want to try to get some plus

825
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:26,359
Speaker 3: ev parways, I think these are pretty good because all

826
00:39:26,400 --> 00:39:30,120
Speaker 3: these guys should be you know, they're very likely, and

827
00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 3: the scheme and the matchup kind of helps them out

828
00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:34,960
Speaker 3: a ton, and you're still getting you know, double digit odds,

829
00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:38,440
Speaker 3: you're paraways. These three together thirteen to one for Ferguson,

830
00:39:38,440 --> 00:39:41,560
Speaker 3: Bowers and Pickings. As I mentioned, we'll add these anytime

831
00:39:41,600 --> 00:39:43,520
Speaker 3: touchdown Parways in.

832
00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:44,279
Speaker 1: The Action App.

833
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:47,000
Speaker 3: You can follow them at the Parlay Express account if

834
00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:49,719
Speaker 3: you haven't already. That's where all of our long shot

835
00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:52,120
Speaker 3: bets are posted. And while you're looking at Parway Express

836
00:39:52,200 --> 00:39:54,040
Speaker 3: in the Action App, be sure to sign up for

837
00:39:54,120 --> 00:39:56,080
Speaker 3: Action Pro. It's the only way for you to get

838
00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:58,879
Speaker 3: the best bets at the best prices with immediate notifications

839
00:39:58,880 --> 00:40:02,160
Speaker 3: when Action Experts post there picks. You get twenty hours

840
00:40:02,200 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 3: off right now by using promo code Pod twenty when

841
00:40:05,040 --> 00:40:07,920
Speaker 3: you sign up for a year of Action Pro. That's

842
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:09,760
Speaker 3: gonna do it for NFL, we can have a touchdown

843
00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 3: show presented by DraftKings. Thanks to Kerner and Jill for

844
00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:17,080
Speaker 3: joining me. You can find Kerner on X at the

845
00:40:17,160 --> 00:40:22,040
Speaker 3: Underscore Odds Maker. Jill's at g DAWG.

846
00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:22,760
Speaker 1: Five zero zero zero.

847
00:40:23,120 --> 00:40:26,080
Speaker 3: I'm at Chris raybond ret those same handles on the

848
00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:28,600
Speaker 3: Action App. Be sure to follow Playbook as well on

849
00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:32,880
Speaker 3: X It'll build you betslips at the sportsbook of your choice.

850
00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:36,440
Speaker 3: Subscribe to the pod if you have it already. Until

851
00:40:36,440 --> 00:40:38,480
Speaker 3: next time, let's get this money