1 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:08,080 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg P and L Podcast. I'm Pim Fox. 2 00:00:08,119 --> 00:00:11,200 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day we 3 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:14,480 Speaker 1: bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for 4 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:16,880 Speaker 1: you and your money, whether at the grocery store or 5 00:00:16,920 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg P L Podcast on iTunes, 6 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:29,880 Speaker 1: SoundCloud and at Bloomberg dot com. Ukraine has accused of 7 00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:32,920 Speaker 1: Russia of state terrorism. That's coming after a former Russian 8 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 1: lawmaker and a witness in a treason case against former 9 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:40,680 Speaker 1: Ukrainian leader Victor Janakovich was shot dead in broad daylight 10 00:00:40,720 --> 00:00:45,280 Speaker 1: outside his hotel in central Kiev, Ukraine. Today, you're gonna 11 00:00:45,320 --> 00:00:47,720 Speaker 1: tell us a little bit more about Russia and it's 12 00:00:48,400 --> 00:00:52,559 Speaker 1: efforts and responsibilities in the international order. Is Adam Arelli. 13 00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:56,080 Speaker 1: He is a former US ambassador to Bahrain and a 14 00:00:56,280 --> 00:01:00,840 Speaker 1: State Department deputy spokesman. Ambassador, Really, thank you for being 15 00:01:01,040 --> 00:01:03,000 Speaker 1: with us. I wonder if we could just get your 16 00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:09,959 Speaker 1: reaction to this, uh, this event in Ukraine today, well disturbing, 17 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:14,760 Speaker 1: but not surprising. Russia has a has a history and 18 00:01:14,800 --> 00:01:18,640 Speaker 1: a pattern of offering its opponents. Uh. You know, just 19 00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:22,600 Speaker 1: two days ago, um a lawyer who was bringing a 20 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:26,880 Speaker 1: case against the Russian government for corruption. Accidentally fell out 21 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:31,479 Speaker 1: of his fourth story apartment in Moscow. Wow, taking a 22 00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:35,560 Speaker 1: bathtub up the stairs. Okay, and the Russians a rule, 23 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 1: that's not an accident. So look, let's be clear, Russia 24 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:42,760 Speaker 1: is a clear and present danger to the United States 25 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:45,920 Speaker 1: and to the rules based international order that was put 26 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:51,200 Speaker 1: in place after the Cold War. And until and unless 27 00:01:51,360 --> 00:01:56,240 Speaker 1: we recognize that and have a concerted policy with our 28 00:01:56,280 --> 00:01:59,360 Speaker 1: allies to confront it, whether it be in the Baltics, 29 00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:03,360 Speaker 1: in the ball kins Uh or in in in Central 30 00:02:03,360 --> 00:02:06,400 Speaker 1: Europe and the Ukraine, We're going to get our lunch 31 00:02:06,440 --> 00:02:10,639 Speaker 1: eaten by a much more aggressive and opportunistic threat that 32 00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:12,720 Speaker 1: is on that is that is out to get us. 33 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:18,120 Speaker 1: It's that simple, ambassador. Really, given your comments that are 34 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:22,320 Speaker 1: very strong about the potential danger that Russia poses to 35 00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:26,080 Speaker 1: the US and too many other nations, how damaging is 36 00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:31,360 Speaker 1: the current administration's approach to that country. And but aside 37 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:35,240 Speaker 1: from that, to that country, to current alliances like NATO 38 00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:42,200 Speaker 1: and others that have potentially curtailed Russian power. Yeah, well, 39 00:02:42,240 --> 00:02:44,960 Speaker 1: I'd say it's a little early to tell because we 40 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 1: really don't know what the administration's approach to Russia is 41 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:50,440 Speaker 1: you hear different things, whether it's from the White House 42 00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:53,520 Speaker 1: or the State Department of the Defense Department. But I 43 00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:57,440 Speaker 1: think you know, look, Russia has an active and aggressive 44 00:02:57,600 --> 00:03:01,560 Speaker 1: campaign to separate the States from its Western allies and 45 00:03:01,639 --> 00:03:04,600 Speaker 1: just so divisions within the Western Alliance. They're doing it 46 00:03:04,639 --> 00:03:09,040 Speaker 1: in the Balkans through countries like Albania and Moldova, UH 47 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:14,040 Speaker 1: and Hungary, where they've been very effective at um at 48 00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:18,800 Speaker 1: dividing the opposition and creating extreme right wing movements UH 49 00:03:19,120 --> 00:03:21,680 Speaker 1: like they've done in the United States. Well, so you 50 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:23,639 Speaker 1: know we're gonna see it in elections coming up in 51 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:26,760 Speaker 1: a number of countries where Russia is just trying to 52 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:30,880 Speaker 1: royal the waters and prevent countries and those governments from 53 00:03:30,880 --> 00:03:35,680 Speaker 1: being friendly the United States. Well, what given that perspective, 54 00:03:35,840 --> 00:03:38,760 Speaker 1: what do you make of Rex Tillerson, the current Secretary 55 00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:42,680 Speaker 1: of State UH, not attending, deciding not to attend an 56 00:03:42,720 --> 00:03:46,960 Speaker 1: upcoming NATO meeting and instead later on going to a 57 00:03:47,040 --> 00:03:51,240 Speaker 1: meeting in Russia. Does that concern Well, I think that 58 00:03:51,360 --> 00:03:55,320 Speaker 1: decision is under review, and my my understanding from people 59 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 1: in the State Department is that they're going to reschedule 60 00:03:57,360 --> 00:03:59,600 Speaker 1: it so that Tillerson can do it. But to your 61 00:03:59,680 --> 00:04:02,320 Speaker 1: question and the it's not what I think. It's the 62 00:04:02,360 --> 00:04:07,119 Speaker 1: outcry of of our European allies and everybody else said, 63 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:10,000 Speaker 1: wait a minute, you can't do this. And it was 64 00:04:10,040 --> 00:04:13,480 Speaker 1: a miscalculation. It was an unforced error by the by 65 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:16,200 Speaker 1: the State Department to decide not to go to a 66 00:04:16,279 --> 00:04:20,360 Speaker 1: NATO ministerial to meet the Chinese president instead, and then 67 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 1: to go to Russia. It just it sent so many 68 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:27,960 Speaker 1: wrong signals about US priorities in US commitment to traditional allies. 69 00:04:28,560 --> 00:04:30,800 Speaker 1: And that's why people are asking questions, is where does 70 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:33,720 Speaker 1: the United States stand on Russia? Uh? And until we 71 00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:37,320 Speaker 1: actually take some action and make some clear statements by 72 00:04:37,360 --> 00:04:39,279 Speaker 1: the president, you know, it's like the Sector of State 73 00:04:39,279 --> 00:04:43,200 Speaker 1: says one thing, Defense Department, Defense Secretary says something, but 74 00:04:43,360 --> 00:04:47,560 Speaker 1: until it's the president, you know, these are all the 75 00:04:48,279 --> 00:04:50,520 Speaker 1: you know, number two and three officials is not the 76 00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:53,880 Speaker 1: number one and number one that capt Ambassador Elly. You 77 00:04:53,920 --> 00:04:57,799 Speaker 1: spent twenty four years as a Foreign Service officer, and 78 00:04:58,320 --> 00:05:01,160 Speaker 1: if in that time you obviously have met with many 79 00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:04,720 Speaker 1: heads of state, what can maybe you go through some 80 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:07,080 Speaker 1: of them and tell us what their reaction is to 81 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:15,000 Speaker 1: Russia's involvement in non Russian affairs. Well, it's pretty clear. Yeah, 82 00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:22,320 Speaker 1: let's go from north to south, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Norway, Finland, Sweden, 83 00:05:22,440 --> 00:05:26,039 Speaker 1: all these countries feel very much at risk. UH that 84 00:05:26,240 --> 00:05:28,799 Speaker 1: Russia has increased the number of troops on their borders 85 00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 1: U and NATO has slowed forces to defend them. Going south, 86 00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:37,359 Speaker 1: Poland obviously is a has a history of of of 87 00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:43,680 Speaker 1: conflict and intimidation for Russia. UM. Germany obviously is the 88 00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 1: anchor of Europe, the security and political and economic anchor 89 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:52,200 Speaker 1: of Europe. Nobody is more UM, nobody is more hawkish 90 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:54,680 Speaker 1: on Russia. I think that Angela Merkel, which is why 91 00:05:54,720 --> 00:05:58,880 Speaker 1: it's so disturbing frankly, that that that Trump and Merkel 92 00:05:59,000 --> 00:06:01,480 Speaker 1: don't have the kind of chemistry that you get the 93 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:06,080 Speaker 1: two strongest Western powers should have when they're facing a 94 00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 1: serious threat from the east. Now back to the back 95 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:14,680 Speaker 1: to the the the unrest that that Russia is sewing 96 00:06:15,279 --> 00:06:18,719 Speaker 1: in Europe. Go to the balk and go to Albania, 97 00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:22,400 Speaker 1: go to Kasta and go to Serbia, and that is 98 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:25,720 Speaker 1: exactly where that is the soft underbelly of Europe. That's 99 00:06:25,720 --> 00:06:30,839 Speaker 1: where Russia is trying to exploit division and create client regimes. 100 00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:33,920 Speaker 1: We gotta leave it there. I'm sorry. Ambassador Arelli is 101 00:06:33,960 --> 00:06:49,120 Speaker 1: the former U S Ambassador to bah Rein. Well, if 102 00:06:49,160 --> 00:06:52,760 Speaker 1: you're invested in stocks, SMP five hundred is up nearly 103 00:06:52,880 --> 00:06:56,520 Speaker 1: five so far this year. And if you're taking a 104 00:06:56,560 --> 00:06:58,760 Speaker 1: look at what's going on in bonds, the thirty years 105 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:01,240 Speaker 1: three point two per sent here to help us make 106 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:04,320 Speaker 1: sense of all this is Steven Sarge Gilfoil. He is 107 00:07:04,320 --> 00:07:08,479 Speaker 1: the founder and the president of Serge six and Serge 108 00:07:08,560 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 1: maybe you could just tell people you were a floor 109 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:12,840 Speaker 1: trader for over thirty years, although you don't look at 110 00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:16,280 Speaker 1: um gosh, that's yet. Well, there you go. That's the 111 00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:18,920 Speaker 1: nicest thing anyone's gonna say to you all day. Is 112 00:07:19,000 --> 00:07:23,360 Speaker 1: there a a connection between this health care vote that 113 00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:27,720 Speaker 1: is scheduled for tonight in the House and what traders 114 00:07:27,760 --> 00:07:31,280 Speaker 1: and investors are doing with their money today? Oh, certainly, 115 00:07:31,320 --> 00:07:33,440 Speaker 1: I assist the cell off on Tuesday. I'm sure you've 116 00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:35,920 Speaker 1: noticed that. It's almost as if we're skating on thin ice. 117 00:07:35,960 --> 00:07:38,000 Speaker 1: We're walking on egg shells, however you want to put it. 118 00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:41,600 Speaker 1: We're waiting to see if we can get to the 119 00:07:41,720 --> 00:07:45,720 Speaker 1: tax cut to the fiscal spending to further deregulation. This 120 00:07:45,800 --> 00:07:48,720 Speaker 1: is what traders want to see. We really don't care 121 00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:51,320 Speaker 1: all that much about our health care, at least not today. 122 00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:53,240 Speaker 1: When one of our kids get sick, we're gonna care. 123 00:07:53,760 --> 00:07:57,880 Speaker 1: But today we care about how to propel the financials further, 124 00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:00,120 Speaker 1: how to take the growth trade further. You know, I 125 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:01,960 Speaker 1: feel like there's been a shifting narrative though in the 126 00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:05,960 Speaker 1: past week, from this is a booming economy, one that 127 00:08:06,080 --> 00:08:09,880 Speaker 1: has momentum and is gaining steam to We're not sure 128 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:12,600 Speaker 1: what some of these tea leaves mean that it might 129 00:08:12,680 --> 00:08:16,880 Speaker 1: be giving us, you know, different different types of h views. 130 00:08:17,200 --> 00:08:19,680 Speaker 1: We were talking offline about how you think that the FED, 131 00:08:19,760 --> 00:08:22,960 Speaker 1: if they hiked too quickly, could end up derailing the economy. 132 00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:24,840 Speaker 1: Do you really think that the economy and that the 133 00:08:24,880 --> 00:08:27,480 Speaker 1: stock market is built on recovery that is so thin 134 00:08:28,360 --> 00:08:31,880 Speaker 1: that a an extra or you know, twenty five basis 135 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:36,040 Speaker 1: point hike in addition to what is uh perhaps warranted 136 00:08:36,040 --> 00:08:39,320 Speaker 1: by the economy could potentially derail the stock market. This 137 00:08:39,400 --> 00:08:41,240 Speaker 1: is the third hike in the cycle, all right, and 138 00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:44,400 Speaker 1: we haven't really seen economic progression all that much. We've 139 00:08:44,400 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 1: seen slow and steady economic progression, but the fourth quarter 140 00:08:46,920 --> 00:08:50,160 Speaker 1: of the economy group one this quarter, if the Atlanta 141 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:51,960 Speaker 1: Fed is correct, and they're not usually correct, but if 142 00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:55,280 Speaker 1: they are correct, it's growing up. Zero point nine c 143 00:08:55,480 --> 00:08:58,400 Speaker 1: p I isn't really there. Yes, it's all two point 144 00:08:58,440 --> 00:09:00,600 Speaker 1: seven percent on a year over year base is But 145 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:04,200 Speaker 1: in April the comparisons get very tough, and now that 146 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:07,560 Speaker 1: oils rolled off a cliff, that headline inflation is not 147 00:09:07,640 --> 00:09:09,200 Speaker 1: really going to be there. Well, but how do you 148 00:09:09,240 --> 00:09:11,960 Speaker 1: then justify being bullish on stocks and then seeing all 149 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:14,280 Speaker 1: of these sort of tea leaves that suggest that perhaps 150 00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:17,080 Speaker 1: the market is the same slow growth uh place that 151 00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:19,319 Speaker 1: it was in last year. Well, stocks are up because 152 00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:22,600 Speaker 1: consumer confidence has been higher, home builder confidence has been higher, 153 00:09:22,640 --> 00:09:26,440 Speaker 1: small business optimism has been higher, and earnings have been 154 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:30,000 Speaker 1: better for two quarters. But that's all based on this 155 00:09:30,080 --> 00:09:33,559 Speaker 1: growth agenda is pro business agenda that we, at least 156 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:36,840 Speaker 1: for some time now thought because the President and the 157 00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:38,600 Speaker 1: House and the Senate we're all from the same party, 158 00:09:38,640 --> 00:09:40,840 Speaker 1: at least on a majority basis, that we would it 159 00:09:40,840 --> 00:09:43,640 Speaker 1: wouldn't be so hard to get things done. As we're learning, 160 00:09:43,800 --> 00:09:46,720 Speaker 1: you don't really need an opposing party to create problems 161 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:49,439 Speaker 1: for yourself. We're going to have a little we'll find 162 00:09:49,480 --> 00:09:52,520 Speaker 1: out today just how realistic this pro business agenda is. 163 00:09:53,040 --> 00:09:54,959 Speaker 1: It sounds like a lot is being based on what 164 00:09:55,000 --> 00:09:57,720 Speaker 1: people think, not on what is actually happening or what 165 00:09:57,800 --> 00:10:01,840 Speaker 1: appears to be at least scientifically discernible. Oh, certainly, take 166 00:10:01,840 --> 00:10:04,160 Speaker 1: a look at valuations. They've been higher, right this is 167 00:10:04,480 --> 00:10:06,480 Speaker 1: you want to pay twenty one times for the SMP 168 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:08,880 Speaker 1: five because that's what it's trading at right now. Well, 169 00:10:08,880 --> 00:10:10,559 Speaker 1: you know, my coaching gave me a couple of my 170 00:10:10,679 --> 00:10:12,600 Speaker 1: shirts when I was a kid, and I grew into him, 171 00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:14,840 Speaker 1: and that's what we're hoping that earnings are gonna do. 172 00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:18,600 Speaker 1: We're hoping to earnings. We're not sure. No one's ever sure. Hey, 173 00:10:18,640 --> 00:10:21,400 Speaker 1: I've lost money probably probably half the time. You gotta 174 00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:24,680 Speaker 1: know how to play your winners. But that growing into 175 00:10:24,720 --> 00:10:28,080 Speaker 1: the earnings idea is something that's been batted around Wall Street, 176 00:10:28,679 --> 00:10:30,760 Speaker 1: and we did believe, or do believe. I'm not going 177 00:10:30,800 --> 00:10:32,360 Speaker 1: to throw it in the towel just yet to find it. 178 00:10:32,440 --> 00:10:34,400 Speaker 1: Financials are popping a little bit today, which means they 179 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:37,200 Speaker 1: are working on something very hard in the house. We 180 00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:39,079 Speaker 1: don't really know what this bill will look like by 181 00:10:39,080 --> 00:10:40,960 Speaker 1: the time they vote on it, if they vote on it. 182 00:10:41,000 --> 00:10:43,600 Speaker 1: But if they do vote on it, that's gonna be 183 00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:45,480 Speaker 1: taken as a positive. You know. I want to ask 184 00:10:45,520 --> 00:10:48,880 Speaker 1: you something about something that the nominee to be the 185 00:10:49,040 --> 00:10:52,200 Speaker 1: SEC chair said in his prepared comments he testifying today 186 00:10:52,400 --> 00:10:55,319 Speaker 1: in front of the Senate Um. He noted that the 187 00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:58,679 Speaker 1: US capital markets public capital markets are less competitive than 188 00:10:58,679 --> 00:11:01,400 Speaker 1: they have been in the past UH and he pointed 189 00:11:01,480 --> 00:11:05,920 Speaker 1: to the I p O market in particular, uh US 190 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:08,640 Speaker 1: listed i p o is by non US companies and 191 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:12,880 Speaker 1: talking about how much the volume of those transactions have declined. 192 00:11:12,920 --> 00:11:15,440 Speaker 1: Do you agree, first of all that the decline in 193 00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:18,600 Speaker 1: this market UH is a signal of some broader ill 194 00:11:18,760 --> 00:11:21,079 Speaker 1: in in U S public capital markets? And second of all, 195 00:11:21,320 --> 00:11:23,560 Speaker 1: whether you know his assessment is correct that we are 196 00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:26,400 Speaker 1: less competitive in the US. I think we are somewhat 197 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:28,400 Speaker 1: less competitive in the US than we used to be. 198 00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:32,479 Speaker 1: I I don't really see the the connection they're altogether. 199 00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:35,840 Speaker 1: I know that the public has been slow to support 200 00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:38,480 Speaker 1: some of these I p o s. Yes, we see 201 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:41,520 Speaker 1: the snapchat that opens above the price. We see a 202 00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:43,840 Speaker 1: few of these open above the syndicate price, but they 203 00:11:43,840 --> 00:11:47,199 Speaker 1: don't run like they used to. Nobody opens or is 204 00:11:47,240 --> 00:11:50,040 Speaker 1: price that life say forty and runs to one forty anymore. 205 00:11:50,040 --> 00:11:54,280 Speaker 1: Those days along behind us, So the easy money isn't 206 00:11:54,280 --> 00:11:57,000 Speaker 1: always there. And maybe maybe firms also just don't want 207 00:11:57,040 --> 00:11:59,840 Speaker 1: to give up control of the operation just yet if 208 00:11:59,840 --> 00:12:02,920 Speaker 1: they if they have something they think will be better 209 00:12:02,920 --> 00:12:05,400 Speaker 1: in the future, and if there are higher evaluations going forward, 210 00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:07,600 Speaker 1: if there is a pro go growth economy, it finally 211 00:12:07,640 --> 00:12:11,880 Speaker 1: comes to fruition later on, you'll get a higher evaluation 212 00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:14,080 Speaker 1: for that. I p O. Can we talk about some 213 00:12:14,160 --> 00:12:16,160 Speaker 1: numbers having to do with the US dollar, because I'm 214 00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:18,520 Speaker 1: looking at it against the euro one oh seven, some 215 00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:21,160 Speaker 1: people saying if it breaks one oh nine, then you're 216 00:12:21,200 --> 00:12:24,000 Speaker 1: gonna see some big moves out of the dollar and 217 00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:28,560 Speaker 1: out of US equities. Dollar also weakening against the pounds, 218 00:12:28,559 --> 00:12:32,800 Speaker 1: sterling one and one thirty three against the can dollar 219 00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:36,560 Speaker 1: one eleven against the end. What's the what you know? 220 00:12:36,920 --> 00:12:40,320 Speaker 1: How does the how does that play out? Well? In 221 00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:43,800 Speaker 1: one regard, there's reason for the year to get stronger. 222 00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:46,920 Speaker 1: Europe is getting a little bit better. The e c 223 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:49,240 Speaker 1: B is probably going to have to tighten monetary policy. 224 00:12:49,240 --> 00:12:52,200 Speaker 1: They're already gonna start tapering in April, So we're the 225 00:12:52,200 --> 00:12:55,440 Speaker 1: balls rolling in that regard from a US, from a 226 00:12:55,640 --> 00:12:58,000 Speaker 1: from a domestic point of view, this to me could 227 00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:01,840 Speaker 1: mean that the border adjustment might fall apart that it 228 00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:04,319 Speaker 1: may be used as a weapon, a unit of bilateral 229 00:13:04,360 --> 00:13:07,360 Speaker 1: weapon in negotiations with say a China or Mexico, rather 230 00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:10,920 Speaker 1: than a legislative tool which will hurt the retailers on 231 00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:15,880 Speaker 1: a broader scale. Uh. You manage money for your family? Correct? Correct? 232 00:13:16,240 --> 00:13:18,960 Speaker 1: How has your cash allocation been recently? Has it been 233 00:13:18,960 --> 00:13:23,480 Speaker 1: going up? For going down? I, right after the election 234 00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:27,640 Speaker 1: went to a very low cash allocation because I did 235 00:13:27,679 --> 00:13:31,959 Speaker 1: believe that Donald Trump was better for the equity markets 236 00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:35,600 Speaker 1: than was Hillary Clinton. So that night that night I 237 00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:37,520 Speaker 1: went into the futures and got after it when it 238 00:13:37,559 --> 00:13:40,000 Speaker 1: was at the lows. So I the election worked out 239 00:13:40,200 --> 00:13:42,240 Speaker 1: very well for me for a few months. I can't 240 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:46,320 Speaker 1: argue that. Uh. Right now, I've taken some profits, Alright, 241 00:13:46,360 --> 00:13:49,160 Speaker 1: the last two weeks or so, I've taken profits in 242 00:13:49,160 --> 00:13:52,000 Speaker 1: the financial names. I've put some of that into cash. 243 00:13:52,120 --> 00:13:56,400 Speaker 1: I've rotated into areas, not defensive areas truly, but areas 244 00:13:56,559 --> 00:13:59,520 Speaker 1: that have been beaten down recently, like the airlines and 245 00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:02,040 Speaker 1: like the end stocks. I've speculated in some energy names 246 00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:04,760 Speaker 1: now that energy now that w C I CREWDE is 247 00:14:04,840 --> 00:14:10,679 Speaker 1: approaching the support level. So basically cash was lower than 248 00:14:10,720 --> 00:14:14,480 Speaker 1: they were. But I, as a guy who is somewhat conservative, 249 00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:18,280 Speaker 1: I would suggest any retail investor listening out there, you 250 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:21,520 Speaker 1: need money in case your boiler breaks. Thank you so much. 251 00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:25,080 Speaker 1: Definitely wise words. Your boiler can break, and especially when 252 00:14:25,120 --> 00:14:28,920 Speaker 1: it's still so cold in New York in March, it's 253 00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:31,880 Speaker 1: nice to have a boiler. Stephen Gilfoyle, thank you so 254 00:14:31,960 --> 00:14:35,360 Speaker 1: much for joining us. He's founder and president of Serge 255 00:14:35,880 --> 00:14:40,520 Speaker 1: six LLC, and he worked for decades as a New 256 00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:57,360 Speaker 1: York Stock exchange floor trader. This is Bloomberg. Now, let's 257 00:14:57,800 --> 00:15:00,800 Speaker 1: go to Paul Sweeney. He's director of North American Research 258 00:15:00,880 --> 00:15:04,200 Speaker 1: for Bloomberg Intelligence. Uh. There was news this morning that 259 00:15:04,360 --> 00:15:08,200 Speaker 1: just recently crossed if Bob Iger Walt Walt Disney's chief 260 00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:11,760 Speaker 1: executive officer, agreed to a contract UH that would keep 261 00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:15,360 Speaker 1: him atop the world's largest entertainment company until to Lie 262 00:15:15,520 --> 00:15:21,000 Speaker 1: two thousand and nineteen. Shares are up almost a percent. Uh, Paul, 263 00:15:21,080 --> 00:15:23,880 Speaker 1: what does this mean for Disney to have Bob commit 264 00:15:24,080 --> 00:15:26,800 Speaker 1: to staying for another few years. Yeah, I think this 265 00:15:26,960 --> 00:15:29,560 Speaker 1: is very good for the Disney investors. I think, Um, 266 00:15:29,960 --> 00:15:32,680 Speaker 1: clearly the succession issue did not work as well as 267 00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:35,800 Speaker 1: the company had hoped over the last several years. UM. 268 00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:38,480 Speaker 1: You know Tom Staggs, who was the heir apparent um 269 00:15:38,720 --> 00:15:41,920 Speaker 1: uh left the company. Uh. So you know, Bob has 270 00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:45,040 Speaker 1: been in a sense of uh staying on until they 271 00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:47,400 Speaker 1: find a successor here. So this is you know, this 272 00:15:47,480 --> 00:15:50,280 Speaker 1: is obviously a large company, diverse company. Uh. They've had 273 00:15:50,480 --> 00:15:53,240 Speaker 1: very strong senior leadership at this company for a very 274 00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:55,400 Speaker 1: long time. So I'm sure they want to be very 275 00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:59,800 Speaker 1: careful about who they identify and ultimately a point as 276 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:02,840 Speaker 1: potential air parent to replace Bob Biger. So this, if 277 00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:05,240 Speaker 1: nothing else, just buys them another year to get that done. 278 00:16:05,800 --> 00:16:09,440 Speaker 1: Paul Sweeney, why is this such a challenge? UM, you know, 279 00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:14,239 Speaker 1: the question is, UM, they had spent so long identifying 280 00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:18,240 Speaker 1: two very viable candidates this succeed Bob Iger. They set 281 00:16:18,280 --> 00:16:21,840 Speaker 1: up a race between Tom Staggs and Jay Rossulo, another 282 00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:25,240 Speaker 1: high ranking and executive really over the last ten years, UM, 283 00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:28,560 Speaker 1: and they identified Tom stagg as an air parent and 284 00:16:28,600 --> 00:16:30,160 Speaker 1: then it just didn't work out at the end. So 285 00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:32,960 Speaker 1: they really didn't have a plan. B uh, So we 286 00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:35,840 Speaker 1: know why it didn't work out. I mean, is a 287 00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:38,840 Speaker 1: long time to figure out that something doesn't work exactly right. 288 00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:41,200 Speaker 1: And that's what really caught investors by surprise a couple 289 00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:43,040 Speaker 1: of years ago when the you know, when Tom Staggs 290 00:16:43,240 --> 00:16:45,840 Speaker 1: did leave the company, it really, you know, raised a question, 291 00:16:45,880 --> 00:16:48,560 Speaker 1: g I thought, you guys really had a good, strong, 292 00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:51,800 Speaker 1: healthy succession plan in place that looked to be working 293 00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:54,880 Speaker 1: until it wasn't. So that kind of put the company 294 00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:56,760 Speaker 1: back on its heels a little bit. And I think 295 00:16:56,760 --> 00:17:00,640 Speaker 1: they're still there, um, and they recognized they need more 296 00:17:00,640 --> 00:17:03,520 Speaker 1: time to identify somebody to fill in the shoes of 297 00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:06,080 Speaker 1: Bob Iger, which are arguably very difficult shoes to fill 298 00:17:06,119 --> 00:17:08,919 Speaker 1: in at a time that is a time of a 299 00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:11,639 Speaker 1: lot of change for the media industry and for Disney 300 00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:14,800 Speaker 1: in particular. So Iger is sixty or six years old, 301 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:17,560 Speaker 1: he has been with the company for more than a decade. 302 00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:20,359 Speaker 1: Why does he want to leave right now? I mean, yes, granted, 303 00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:22,120 Speaker 1: maybe he just wants to go and spend more time 304 00:17:22,119 --> 00:17:23,960 Speaker 1: with his family and go to the beach. But is 305 00:17:24,000 --> 00:17:26,920 Speaker 1: there something else that sort of was encouraging him to leave? Well, 306 00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:29,600 Speaker 1: I think one thing was is when he initially had 307 00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:31,840 Speaker 1: his retirement date of a couple of years ago, it 308 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:34,760 Speaker 1: was he was going out literally on top day. It 309 00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:37,800 Speaker 1: was planned to coincide with the opening of Shanghai Disney, 310 00:17:37,800 --> 00:17:40,040 Speaker 1: which would be the you know, a certainly a crowning 311 00:17:40,040 --> 00:17:43,760 Speaker 1: achievement on in a very spectacular career. But then the timing, 312 00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:46,280 Speaker 1: obviously with a succession, didn't work out. I think the 313 00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:49,199 Speaker 1: expectation was, you know, he um, if a Democrat had 314 00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:52,880 Speaker 1: been elected, he may have gone into politics. Uh. He 315 00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:55,200 Speaker 1: was part of a group that was bidding for a 316 00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:57,880 Speaker 1: NFL franchise in Los Angeles that that did not win 317 00:17:57,960 --> 00:18:00,439 Speaker 1: that franchise. So uh. He certainly has a lot of 318 00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:04,080 Speaker 1: interest outside of Disney that I think most folks felt 319 00:18:04,080 --> 00:18:05,919 Speaker 1: like at his age there in mid sixties, that he 320 00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:08,159 Speaker 1: would be in a great position to pursue. But now 321 00:18:08,200 --> 00:18:10,160 Speaker 1: obviously he needs to stay on a couple more years, 322 00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:13,280 Speaker 1: uh and ensure that there is a seamless transition to 323 00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:17,120 Speaker 1: a new CEO. Does he need to ensure that ESPN 324 00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:22,639 Speaker 1: and it's high fixed costs are somehow resolved versus the 325 00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:25,639 Speaker 1: effort on the part of younger subscribers to look for 326 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:29,320 Speaker 1: those skinny bundles that may not include ESPN. Yeah. I 327 00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:31,639 Speaker 1: think you're absolutely right. I think that's job one for 328 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:33,960 Speaker 1: Bob Iger and the management team over the next couple 329 00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:37,000 Speaker 1: of years, just to figure out a real digital solution 330 00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:40,280 Speaker 1: for their sports franchise. UM. Right now, they make obviously 331 00:18:40,320 --> 00:18:43,080 Speaker 1: a tremendous amount of money off of ESPN, but their 332 00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:45,360 Speaker 1: customers are going more and more online and they need 333 00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:50,119 Speaker 1: to think about creating a digital online product that works 334 00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:52,640 Speaker 1: for UM. You know this this this new world we're 335 00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:56,000 Speaker 1: living in. They haven't done that yet, and that's job one, Uh, Paul. 336 00:18:56,680 --> 00:18:59,160 Speaker 1: Some of the headlines coming across now are saying that 337 00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:02,119 Speaker 1: Walt Disney agree to pay either five million dollars in 338 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:06,600 Speaker 1: cash for extending his contract with the company. How does 339 00:19:06,600 --> 00:19:09,239 Speaker 1: that strike you for with respect to sort of how 340 00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:12,560 Speaker 1: high or low it is with respect to executive compensation, Yeah, 341 00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:15,080 Speaker 1: it's it's almost for Bob Biger and for the company, 342 00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:19,760 Speaker 1: it's a dimendis amount. Media executives, including Bob Biger, are 343 00:19:19,840 --> 00:19:22,920 Speaker 1: extraordinarily well compensated. If you take a look every single 344 00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:25,760 Speaker 1: year at the top ten paid executives in America, there's 345 00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:29,719 Speaker 1: a very good representation from the media industry Uh, so 346 00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:32,720 Speaker 1: Bob Buyer's obviously, uh, you know, created a lot of 347 00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:36,120 Speaker 1: shareholder wall for investors, and I think most investors are 348 00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:39,520 Speaker 1: very happy for whatever conversation he's able to negotiate the 349 00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:43,879 Speaker 1: current slate of Disney movies, Beauty and the Beast, for example, 350 00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:46,560 Speaker 1: what can you tell us about how well it's doing? 351 00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:49,879 Speaker 1: And the franchise for Star Wars Beauty and the Beast 352 00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:53,320 Speaker 1: is came in well above expectations. Looks to be another 353 00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:57,320 Speaker 1: global hit, a global franchise. UM. And it's this um. 354 00:19:57,359 --> 00:19:59,760 Speaker 1: There's no studio in the history of Hollywood it's had 355 00:19:59,800 --> 00:20:01,720 Speaker 1: a on the way that Disney has had over the 356 00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:03,600 Speaker 1: last ten years. And they could take a look at 357 00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:06,240 Speaker 1: their slate of films coming up over the next several years, 358 00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:08,960 Speaker 1: it looks very solid as well. And it's just you know, 359 00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:11,359 Speaker 1: they made a big investment in the film business about 360 00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:13,840 Speaker 1: ten years when they bought Pixar, and then they bought 361 00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:17,280 Speaker 1: Marvel Studios, and then they bought most recently Lucasfilms, you know, 362 00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:21,400 Speaker 1: investing well over ten billion dollars in uh, the movie business. 363 00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:23,399 Speaker 1: And they're now reaping the benefits of that by just 364 00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:25,720 Speaker 1: hit after hit after hit from a lot of these 365 00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:29,840 Speaker 1: proven franchises, including Star Wars. So you said that you 366 00:20:29,840 --> 00:20:31,480 Speaker 1: started out by saying, this is going to be a 367 00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:34,600 Speaker 1: good thing for investors. Is there something in particular that 368 00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:38,200 Speaker 1: Bobyger brings to it, uh, that investors should like? Well, 369 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:40,879 Speaker 1: I mean he brings stability, and obviously, investors, he's a 370 00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:44,639 Speaker 1: proven entity that's been tremendously successful at the company and 371 00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:48,160 Speaker 1: has created a tremendous amount of shareholder value over his 372 00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:50,880 Speaker 1: his tenures. So, as you well know, I'm investors don't 373 00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:53,359 Speaker 1: like uncertainty, and so there's already is a level of 374 00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:56,920 Speaker 1: uncertainty about the succession overall. But I think the news today, 375 00:20:57,000 --> 00:20:59,639 Speaker 1: just you know, again, buys the time, buys the company 376 00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:04,439 Speaker 1: another year to try to identify a uh successor. I 377 00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:06,200 Speaker 1: want to thank you very much for joining us. Paul 378 00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:09,760 Speaker 1: Sweeney is the head of North American Research and media 379 00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:13,840 Speaker 1: analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. Shares of Disney they're higher by 380 00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:16,800 Speaker 1: about six tenths of a percent after learning that Bob 381 00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:22,520 Speaker 1: Iger will be remaining with the company July. This is Bloomberger. 382 00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:39,560 Speaker 1: We have talked a lot about the big healthcare vote 383 00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:43,680 Speaker 1: that will happen this evening in Congress, but we haven't 384 00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:46,480 Speaker 1: talked quite as much about the details of how this 385 00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:50,240 Speaker 1: healthcare bill is being changed at the last minute in 386 00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:52,959 Speaker 1: order to accommodate certain conservative views. But to do so, 387 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:56,800 Speaker 1: I want to bring in Kevin Whitlaw, Congress editor for 388 00:21:56,960 --> 00:22:00,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News. Kevin, what do you know about these if 389 00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:03,000 Speaker 1: it changes that are being made currently as we speak 390 00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:06,159 Speaker 1: to the healthcare bill? Well, straight answers. We don't know 391 00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:08,359 Speaker 1: yet whether any changes are going to be being or not. 392 00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:10,520 Speaker 1: But um, some of the House Conservatives who have been 393 00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:12,800 Speaker 1: holding out on the bill have been negotiating directly with 394 00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:14,840 Speaker 1: the White House on these things. They think they have 395 00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:17,160 Speaker 1: some verbal agreements on the kinds of changes that might 396 00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:19,480 Speaker 1: um at least start to get them there. But it's 397 00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:22,760 Speaker 1: not a done deal. How it hasn't yet been signed 398 00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:27,160 Speaker 1: off on by uh Paul Ryan or or Republican leaders. Um, 399 00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:30,159 Speaker 1: given that they're not directly involved. Uh so uh And 400 00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:32,119 Speaker 1: we also don't know whether the kinds of changes that 401 00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:35,680 Speaker 1: UH that the conservative demanding are going to cause even 402 00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:37,960 Speaker 1: more moderates to to flee from the bill. We are 403 00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:41,920 Speaker 1: seeing a drip drip drip of moderates starting to pull 404 00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:44,399 Speaker 1: out their support, coming out against the current version of 405 00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:47,320 Speaker 1: the bill, and the changes that are being discussed, um 406 00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:50,560 Speaker 1: could could make even more get cold feat Kevin, what 407 00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:52,960 Speaker 1: about the numbers? I was reading one report that said 408 00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:56,000 Speaker 1: about thirty Republicans had said that they would either vote 409 00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:59,119 Speaker 1: against the measure or had not yet made up their minds. 410 00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:01,840 Speaker 1: You know it, er and sixteen is the magic number, 411 00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:05,199 Speaker 1: that's right. They can only afford to lose about one. UM. 412 00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:08,760 Speaker 1: Losing twenty two or more probably kills the bill. And 413 00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:11,040 Speaker 1: we we've said a number of firm nose to lean 414 00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,520 Speaker 1: nos is probably somewhere between twenty five and thirty. But 415 00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:16,160 Speaker 1: it is a fluid number. It keeps changing and and 416 00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:18,560 Speaker 1: so um. You know, we always have to be a 417 00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:20,320 Speaker 1: little careful of this. There's also been a thought that 418 00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:21,560 Speaker 1: you just put the bill on the floor and make 419 00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:23,480 Speaker 1: people vote on it. And it's gonna be hard for 420 00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:27,000 Speaker 1: Republicans to vote against something that actually repeals Obamacare. Um. 421 00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:30,119 Speaker 1: Having said that, there's obviously a ton of angst surrounding 422 00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:33,360 Speaker 1: this vote. UM, uh on on on just about every 423 00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:37,879 Speaker 1: political spectrum. Kevin. How many moderate Republican votes are in 424 00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:41,920 Speaker 1: contention right now? Well, we know of at least a handful. 425 00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:44,720 Speaker 1: That list is probably up to somewhere between five or 426 00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:47,400 Speaker 1: ten who have said no or leaning no hard um 427 00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:49,800 Speaker 1: and it only seems to be growing. So you're you're 428 00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:55,560 Speaker 1: looking at um maybe uh, somewhere around eighteen twenty conservatives, 429 00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:57,600 Speaker 1: five ten moderates. That's sort of where you get to 430 00:23:57,640 --> 00:24:00,399 Speaker 1: that sort of thirty number. So you've got people on 431 00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:02,480 Speaker 1: both ends of the spectrum. As you can imagine, you 432 00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:04,960 Speaker 1: make the bill more conservative, you're excluding more moderates and 433 00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:07,720 Speaker 1: vice versas. So they've got a real problem in trying 434 00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:09,960 Speaker 1: to strike a balance. And it's just not clear that 435 00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:13,320 Speaker 1: strong arming um or charming from President Trump is going 436 00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:15,680 Speaker 1: to get them over the finish line. It might still 437 00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:18,520 Speaker 1: do it, The vote might still happen today. Uh. Things 438 00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:20,320 Speaker 1: to keep in mind here is even if they somehow 439 00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:22,560 Speaker 1: get this thing through the House, it actually faces an 440 00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:25,040 Speaker 1: even tougher road in the Senate. What does this mean 441 00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:28,320 Speaker 1: for the future of House Speaker Paul Ryan, who that's 442 00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:30,920 Speaker 1: a really good question. Um, you know, I think that 443 00:24:30,920 --> 00:24:33,600 Speaker 1: that for President Trump, he's actually getting a taste of 444 00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:37,520 Speaker 1: of how difficult Paul Ryan's job actually is. Um, particularly 445 00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:41,080 Speaker 1: wrangling the House Freedom Caucus. This group of conservatives, these 446 00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:43,120 Speaker 1: are people who actually back Trump so in theory, Trump 447 00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:44,480 Speaker 1: should have a lot of way with these guys, but 448 00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:48,760 Speaker 1: obviously he hasn't gotten there yet. Is Paul Ryan where 449 00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:51,760 Speaker 1: does he stand with respect to the conservatives versus and moderates? 450 00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:54,840 Speaker 1: I mean, obviously he helped craft the bill, but was 451 00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:57,639 Speaker 1: he pushing it one way or or another? Well, you know, 452 00:24:57,680 --> 00:24:59,959 Speaker 1: he crafted a bill, and there has been some grumble 453 00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:01,639 Speaker 1: about the way he did it, sort of did it 454 00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:04,920 Speaker 1: in a fair amount of secrecy and and um um, 455 00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:07,560 Speaker 1: it didn't do a ton of work um to sort 456 00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:10,119 Speaker 1: of bring everyone in the process. So there's definitely a 457 00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:13,160 Speaker 1: certain amount of grumbling. The bill is a conservative bill, 458 00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:16,320 Speaker 1: but it's certainly not as conservative as some people in 459 00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:19,840 Speaker 1: the party had wanted. So um, I think that, you know, 460 00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:22,240 Speaker 1: there's been some minor level grumbling in the process. It's 461 00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:25,200 Speaker 1: not clear that failure of the bill uh endangers Paul 462 00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:27,719 Speaker 1: Ryan's job immediately, but it certainly makes it look a 463 00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:30,879 Speaker 1: lot more difficult um for him to deliver on some 464 00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:33,680 Speaker 1: of the priorities ahead, because you know, the tax reform 465 00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:36,439 Speaker 1: debate isn't going to be any easier than than this 466 00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:40,560 Speaker 1: Obamacare debate. Um. So uh, if you can't get through 467 00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:42,800 Speaker 1: a priority, that You've spent seven years saying that you're 468 00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:47,160 Speaker 1: gonna do not the world's greatest start form Kevin. Large 469 00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:51,280 Speaker 1: protests against the bill planned for today in Washington and 470 00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:54,159 Speaker 1: around the country. Have the Republicans really done enough on 471 00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:59,560 Speaker 1: the ground work to get public opinion behind this change 472 00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:01,960 Speaker 1: in the bill all such as the kind of ground 473 00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:05,639 Speaker 1: swell that we heard for the initial crafting of the 474 00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:08,440 Speaker 1: Affordable Care Act for Obamacare. Yeah, I mean I think 475 00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:10,439 Speaker 1: that they I think they didn't really have to do 476 00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:12,200 Speaker 1: that kind of work. I mean, I think they looked 477 00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:14,240 Speaker 1: at the election victories and said, you know, hey, we 478 00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:17,400 Speaker 1: ran on repealing Obamacare and we won, so so people 479 00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:20,159 Speaker 1: must be with us. But um, it's pretty clear they 480 00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:23,720 Speaker 1: didn't do um uh enough prep work to try to 481 00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:26,280 Speaker 1: sell their bill and what it's what it's replacement would do. 482 00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:29,159 Speaker 1: But you know, here again the opposition split. There are 483 00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:31,800 Speaker 1: some um, you know who think it doesn't go far enough, 484 00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:34,000 Speaker 1: and there's obviously now plenty of people who are worried 485 00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:37,280 Speaker 1: about uh losing their health care. The problem I think 486 00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:40,760 Speaker 1: for Paul Ryan is is had this repeal effort gone 487 00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:42,800 Speaker 1: through a couple of years ago, it would have been 488 00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:46,120 Speaker 1: probably a little easier and less politically sensitive. But now 489 00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:48,040 Speaker 1: that people have have a lot of people have gotten 490 00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:50,840 Speaker 1: insurance through through the system, have been using this and 491 00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:53,440 Speaker 1: and now rely on it um Now, obviously there's a 492 00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:56,080 Speaker 1: set Americans who are worried about things being taken away 493 00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:59,040 Speaker 1: from them. Thank you very much. Kevin Whitelaw is our 494 00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:02,360 Speaker 1: congressional editor or for Bloomberg News, giving us the latest 495 00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:06,760 Speaker 1: on the attempt to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act. 496 00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:15,399 Speaker 1: Devotes scheduled for this evening in the House. Thanks for 497 00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:18,800 Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg pian L podcast. You can subscribe 498 00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:23,439 Speaker 1: and listen to interviews at iTunes, SoundCloud, or whatever podcast 499 00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:26,480 Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm Pim Fox. I'm out there on 500 00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:29,720 Speaker 1: Twitter at pim Fox. I'm out there on Twitter at 501 00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:32,800 Speaker 1: Lisa Abramo. It's one before the podcast. You can always 502 00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:35,040 Speaker 1: catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio.