1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:04,120 Speaker 1: The Favorite podcast is presented by FanDuel Sports Book. There's 2 00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:08,280 Speaker 1: no better place to make every moment more than with FanDuel. 3 00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:11,320 Speaker 1: I bet with FanDuel because they're safe and secure, they 4 00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:14,440 Speaker 1: offer great odds and markets across the NBA, n HL 5 00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:17,680 Speaker 1: and more, and because it's fun to combine multiple bets 6 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 1: into same game parlays. So if you're new, just download 7 00:00:21,720 --> 00:00:24,560 Speaker 1: the FanDuel Sports Book app to get started now. Sign 8 00:00:24,640 --> 00:00:29,000 Speaker 1: up with promo code Favorites so they know I sent you. 9 00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:33,160 Speaker 1: You must be over in president in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, Michigan, 10 00:00:33,159 --> 00:00:36,600 Speaker 1: New Jersey, New York, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia or Louisiana. 11 00:00:36,720 --> 00:00:39,640 Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred next step or text 12 00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:42,279 Speaker 1: next step to five three three four two in Arizona 13 00:00:42,520 --> 00:00:45,280 Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler or visit FanDuel dot com slash 14 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:48,440 Speaker 1: r G in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey. In Virginia one 15 00:00:48,600 --> 00:00:51,520 Speaker 1: eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit 16 00:00:51,640 --> 00:00:56,560 Speaker 1: CCPG dot org slash chat in Connecticut one eight seven 17 00:00:56,600 --> 00:00:58,960 Speaker 1: zero seven one one seven for confidential help in Michigan 18 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:03,560 Speaker 1: one eight seventh s t o P in Louisiana called 19 00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:08,040 Speaker 1: the Tennessee red Line one nine or visit one eight 20 00:01:08,480 --> 00:01:19,360 Speaker 1: Gambler dot Net in West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites, 21 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:22,319 Speaker 1: the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I'm Chad Mollman, 22 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:26,039 Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. The sports season 23 00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:34,200 Speaker 1: never stops, NHL playoffs, NBA playoffs. This weekend we have 24 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:40,160 Speaker 1: the one hundred and forty seven running of the Preakness 25 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 1: Stakes at Pimlico in Baltimore, Maryland, home of the David 26 00:01:48,280 --> 00:01:56,800 Speaker 1: Simon Epics. Television extraordinaire. We're a quarter of the way 27 00:01:56,840 --> 00:02:03,440 Speaker 1: through the Major League Baseball season. In a moment, Seansillo 28 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:07,320 Speaker 1: Action Network Senior writer, hardest working man in sports, co 29 00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:11,320 Speaker 1: host of Payoff Pitch Are Major League Baseball Betting podcast 30 00:02:11,320 --> 00:02:14,200 Speaker 1: on the Action Network. Co host of the Action Network 31 00:02:14,240 --> 00:02:19,160 Speaker 1: podcast UFC Betting Preview, which comes out every Friday. He's 32 00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:25,680 Speaker 1: gonna join us. US is me and my bff, my companion, 33 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:32,760 Speaker 1: my compadre, the newest member of the construction world in 34 00:02:32,919 --> 00:02:39,640 Speaker 1: Northern New Jersey, professional better summon hunter. Bad buddy, You 35 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:41,240 Speaker 1: were so you nail on the head there. This really 36 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:44,480 Speaker 1: is like the just never ending sports time of year, 37 00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:47,959 Speaker 1: got playoffs every night in hockey, got basketball every night, 38 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:50,360 Speaker 1: we got baseball going on during the day, then we 39 00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:52,000 Speaker 1: got a little bit of horse racing on the weekend. 40 00:02:52,040 --> 00:02:54,320 Speaker 1: It's it's the best. You gotta love this time of year. 41 00:02:54,440 --> 00:03:00,520 Speaker 1: May it's a look. You guys know, I tend to 42 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:06,720 Speaker 1: go to sleep pretty early, um, and I am in 43 00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:09,120 Speaker 1: this point of the year in the NBA playoffs where 44 00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:16,040 Speaker 1: there's a game every night, no nights off, And last 45 00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:19,440 Speaker 1: night the game didn't even start until nine o'clock. So 46 00:03:19,480 --> 00:03:22,680 Speaker 1: I napped for most of the second quarter and then 47 00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:25,840 Speaker 1: was able to be alert and alive for the third 48 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:29,440 Speaker 1: quarter to see the Warriors blow them out. And honestly, 49 00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:32,079 Speaker 1: I kind of didn't want to go to bed. I did, 50 00:03:32,360 --> 00:03:35,880 Speaker 1: but I didn't want to because even when the Warriors 51 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:39,360 Speaker 1: are blowing a team out, they're so fun to watch, 52 00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:43,560 Speaker 1: Like their ball movement, the passes they make, staffs passes 53 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:46,840 Speaker 1: are so beautiful, the way Clay cuts, the way Draymond 54 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:53,960 Speaker 1: grabs rebounds. Looney was unreal, Like that is just beautiful basketball. 55 00:03:54,840 --> 00:03:57,000 Speaker 1: Like what a joy for the coaches to be able 56 00:03:57,040 --> 00:04:00,800 Speaker 1: to watch that every night. It's it's glorious. Yeah, and 57 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:02,680 Speaker 1: it was. That's one of those games where when Wiggins 58 00:04:02,720 --> 00:04:05,240 Speaker 1: your highest score for Golden State. They're they're gonna win 59 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:08,880 Speaker 1: those games every time. So that was I mean, you, Chad, 60 00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:11,120 Speaker 1: we're the only ones. Just said. I really love Golden State, 61 00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:13,480 Speaker 1: and this is why they're just when they're all healthy, 62 00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:15,360 Speaker 1: when it's all clicking, it's just there's no other team 63 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:17,520 Speaker 1: in the NBA that can do what they do. Reminder, 64 00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:20,919 Speaker 1: what did I say, Warriors in five? I love it 65 00:04:20,960 --> 00:04:23,800 Speaker 1: calling your shot, calling my shot. You know who else 66 00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:27,600 Speaker 1: likes to call his shots? Our good friends Shanzarillo Shanzaillo, 67 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:32,560 Speaker 1: once upon a time started at Action Network. Very first day, 68 00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:35,800 Speaker 1: did a podcast with me. He had never done any 69 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:40,720 Speaker 1: kind of audio ever. Now Shanzarello's hosting to podcasts. He's 70 00:04:40,760 --> 00:04:44,479 Speaker 1: got like seventy thou followers in our app. He's writing 71 00:04:44,520 --> 00:04:48,120 Speaker 1: about baseball every day, he's writing about UFC, He's covering 72 00:04:48,120 --> 00:04:51,160 Speaker 1: horse racing. He bets more hockey than just about anybody 73 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:57,080 Speaker 1: not named Mike Leeboff. Action Network analysts seans Aillo, what's 74 00:04:57,120 --> 00:05:00,120 Speaker 1: going on doing well? Chat? I got a new be 75 00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:02,560 Speaker 1: so I'm completely exhausted. I hope be able to give 76 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:04,800 Speaker 1: out some good information. Hopefully she doesn't start barking in 77 00:05:04,839 --> 00:05:06,840 Speaker 1: the middle of the episode. She needs to go out 78 00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:08,719 Speaker 1: every thirty minutes, so we'll try to keep this tight. 79 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:11,240 Speaker 1: But I'm doing well, and I'm trying to find time 80 00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:14,159 Speaker 1: to manage my time amongst all the puppy pea breaks. 81 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:17,560 Speaker 1: What kind of don't you got? We have a second 82 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:20,120 Speaker 1: basset town. We had a Bassett hound previously. She's now 83 00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:22,039 Speaker 1: five years old, and now we have another puppy to 84 00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:24,720 Speaker 1: become her best friend. But the older dog has rejected 85 00:05:24,720 --> 00:05:26,839 Speaker 1: the younger dog, and the younger dog is now rejecting 86 00:05:26,880 --> 00:05:29,120 Speaker 1: the rain. So I've got a lot of rejection going 87 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:31,320 Speaker 1: on in my house. Trying to adapt everybody to their 88 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:36,680 Speaker 1: current environment. Oh my god, people and their dogs. I 89 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:40,600 Speaker 1: love my dog so much. The way my wife and 90 00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:45,480 Speaker 1: I talked to our dog, it's almost embarrassing how we 91 00:05:45,560 --> 00:05:51,480 Speaker 1: communicate with her, and our son who's home looks at 92 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:56,919 Speaker 1: us like we are just pathetic, pathetic people. But she like, 93 00:05:58,160 --> 00:06:01,520 Speaker 1: she brings me such joy, Like just looking at her 94 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:06,960 Speaker 1: the way she just flops into the house, just pure love. 95 00:06:07,800 --> 00:06:11,200 Speaker 1: Are our puppy let out her first house last night. 96 00:06:11,240 --> 00:06:13,640 Speaker 1: The older dog never learned how to howl, but baskets 97 00:06:13,640 --> 00:06:17,000 Speaker 1: are notorious for howling, So I started running the blender 98 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:20,240 Speaker 1: and she started letting out her first house. So hopefully 99 00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:22,200 Speaker 1: this doesn't become a habit and she doesn't teach the 100 00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:24,200 Speaker 1: older dog how to howl. But definitely one of the 101 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:26,800 Speaker 1: cutest things I've ever seen. Oh my god, I love it. 102 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:29,240 Speaker 1: I love it for you next time recorded the how 103 00:06:29,400 --> 00:06:33,239 Speaker 1: put it on the podcast? Uh, speaking of animals we love. 104 00:06:34,240 --> 00:06:36,880 Speaker 1: We got a Preakness, and it's gonna be hard for 105 00:06:36,920 --> 00:06:39,120 Speaker 1: the Preakness to live up to the Derby in the 106 00:06:39,200 --> 00:06:43,440 Speaker 1: drama in the spectacle, it's almost like doesn't have any 107 00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:46,680 Speaker 1: of the horses that sort of had the buzz at 108 00:06:46,720 --> 00:06:49,599 Speaker 1: the Derby lay it out for us. What are we 109 00:06:49,640 --> 00:06:52,120 Speaker 1: looking for here? Is there going to be attention in 110 00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:54,840 Speaker 1: the Preakness? What are we thinking about here? So I 111 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:57,240 Speaker 1: think the biggest storyline is the fact that Secret Oath, 112 00:06:57,240 --> 00:06:59,839 Speaker 1: who is your Kentucky Oaks winner, is trying to become 113 00:07:00,000 --> 00:07:02,280 Speaker 1: I believe the seventh Philly to ever win the preak 114 00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:05,960 Speaker 1: Mistakes had Swiss Skydiver back in though that race was 115 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:08,320 Speaker 1: ran in March, and then more famously, probably in two 116 00:07:08,320 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 1: thousand nine, Rachel Alexandra won the Preakness and that was 117 00:07:12,200 --> 00:07:15,360 Speaker 1: a huge storyline. So seeing a secret Oa can be 118 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 1: your Preakness winner. I think it's a very interesting story. 119 00:07:17,520 --> 00:07:20,200 Speaker 1: She'll probably be second or third on the odds board. 120 00:07:20,920 --> 00:07:22,840 Speaker 1: And this is I believe, just the second time in 121 00:07:22,960 --> 00:07:26,040 Speaker 1: forty years that the Kentucky Derby winner ended up skipping 122 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:28,760 Speaker 1: the Preakness for a reason other than health concerns. So 123 00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:31,120 Speaker 1: that's definitely going to open up the field from a 124 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:34,360 Speaker 1: betting perspective. You're gonna get all that public money, reallocate 125 00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:38,320 Speaker 1: different horses. And as a result, Epicenter, who finished second 126 00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:39,920 Speaker 1: in the Kentucky Derby, looked like he was going to 127 00:07:39,960 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 1: be the winner until the final fifth yards. I expect 128 00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:43,800 Speaker 1: him to take a ton of money. A lot of 129 00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:46,080 Speaker 1: people view them has the clear favorite, and I think 130 00:07:46,080 --> 00:07:48,000 Speaker 1: will be an odds on favorite by post time. Six 131 00:07:48,040 --> 00:07:50,200 Speaker 1: to five on the morning line, I expect him would 132 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:52,440 Speaker 1: go off probably closer to four to five or even 133 00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:57,240 Speaker 1: three to five on the tailboard. Why would Epicenter thrive 134 00:07:57,560 --> 00:08:01,960 Speaker 1: at the Preakness Is there's something specific about that horse 135 00:08:02,880 --> 00:08:07,040 Speaker 1: that makes it predisposed to racing well at the Preakness 136 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:10,840 Speaker 1: versus obviously at race well at the Derby. But breakdown 137 00:08:10,920 --> 00:08:14,080 Speaker 1: sort of what kind of horses thrive at the Breakness. Yeah, 138 00:08:14,120 --> 00:08:17,040 Speaker 1: I don't know if there's necessarily a specific style that 139 00:08:17,080 --> 00:08:19,240 Speaker 1: thrives at the Preakness. Now it is a sixteenth of 140 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:22,000 Speaker 1: a mile shorter than the Derby. Derby's a mile and 141 00:08:22,040 --> 00:08:25,360 Speaker 1: a quarter. Preakness is a mile in three sixteen. That said, 142 00:08:25,360 --> 00:08:28,160 Speaker 1: we do see closers win the Preakness fairly often. It 143 00:08:28,160 --> 00:08:30,480 Speaker 1: doesn't necessarily mean because it's shorter, that you're going to 144 00:08:30,520 --> 00:08:32,880 Speaker 1: get a horse on the lead that ends up running 145 00:08:32,880 --> 00:08:36,000 Speaker 1: away with it. There is, though, in this particular race, 146 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:38,520 Speaker 1: one speed of the speed that is the number five 147 00:08:38,559 --> 00:08:41,280 Speaker 1: early voting and early voting if they let him loose 148 00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:44,839 Speaker 1: on the lead, especially we had the fastest opening quarter 149 00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:47,520 Speaker 1: mile in Derby history last time. Oftentimes you see an 150 00:08:47,520 --> 00:08:50,320 Speaker 1: overreaction from the jockeys where now nobody wants to be 151 00:08:50,320 --> 00:08:52,800 Speaker 1: on the lead. So if they get early voting out 152 00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:54,959 Speaker 1: on an uncontested pace, he can run away with it. 153 00:08:55,240 --> 00:08:57,840 Speaker 1: The thing with Epicenter, though he likes to be honored 154 00:08:57,840 --> 00:09:00,400 Speaker 1: near the lead, but he's very versatile. He sort of 155 00:09:00,440 --> 00:09:02,600 Speaker 1: sit where he needs to and eventually find his run 156 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:04,800 Speaker 1: down the stretch. May not be the fastest closing kick. 157 00:09:05,080 --> 00:09:08,400 Speaker 1: Secret Oath probably has the fastest closing kick in the race. 158 00:09:08,720 --> 00:09:11,520 Speaker 1: But Epicenter is very handy, very versatile, and if you're 159 00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:14,160 Speaker 1: just looking at speed scores, he is the fastest horse 160 00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:16,720 Speaker 1: in the race. I like to use Buyer speed scores. 161 00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:19,400 Speaker 1: He's the only horse in this field with a hundred 162 00:09:19,400 --> 00:09:21,480 Speaker 1: Buyer speed figure. He's done it twice in a row 163 00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:24,000 Speaker 1: now one or two two races back on the Derby. 164 00:09:24,400 --> 00:09:26,559 Speaker 1: The highest other speed figures in the race belong to 165 00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:29,960 Speaker 1: Secret Oath at nineties six and also Simplification, who finished 166 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:32,280 Speaker 1: fourth in the Derby. In the one hole, He's also 167 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:34,400 Speaker 1: at the ninety six and then Secret both down at 168 00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:37,800 Speaker 1: the ninety four. So the reason why people love Epicenter 169 00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:40,360 Speaker 1: here either he needs to take a step back for 170 00:09:40,520 --> 00:09:43,040 Speaker 1: these other horses need to take a step forward, or 171 00:09:43,080 --> 00:09:44,880 Speaker 1: both in order for one of them to end up 172 00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:47,520 Speaker 1: upsetting this race. I understand why people like him to 173 00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:50,440 Speaker 1: a significant degree, but he's had a long campaign coming 174 00:09:50,480 --> 00:09:51,960 Speaker 1: off of an effort in the Derby where he ran 175 00:09:52,000 --> 00:09:54,920 Speaker 1: ten furlongs and was battling back and forth in the stretch. 176 00:09:55,160 --> 00:09:57,080 Speaker 1: Maybe the tank is empty at this point. He is 177 00:09:57,120 --> 00:09:59,120 Speaker 1: the best horse in the field, but there are reasons 178 00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:00,760 Speaker 1: to believe why he could take a step back in 179 00:10:00,840 --> 00:10:03,320 Speaker 1: this race. Now, we just saw one of the greatest 180 00:10:03,400 --> 00:10:06,880 Speaker 1: upsets obviously ever in horse racing class race in the Derby. 181 00:10:07,040 --> 00:10:08,719 Speaker 1: Look at this one. There are any long shots you're 182 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:10,400 Speaker 1: you're eyeing up to your think yourself, you know what, 183 00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:12,840 Speaker 1: there's pretty good value here in this race with a 184 00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:15,760 Speaker 1: good long shot. So the three, I'm gonna toss the 185 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:19,600 Speaker 1: number three Fenwick, the number six Happy Jack, and also 186 00:10:20,280 --> 00:10:23,480 Speaker 1: I'm gonna toss the number seven Armagnac probably as well. 187 00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:25,920 Speaker 1: Know of those three, Armagnac is down at twelve to 188 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:28,520 Speaker 1: one on the morning line, probably will be a bit 189 00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:30,880 Speaker 1: higher by post time. I mentioned Epicenter, I expect to 190 00:10:30,920 --> 00:10:33,040 Speaker 1: get about down even below six to five, so that's 191 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:36,840 Speaker 1: gonna inflate everybody else's odds. Armagnac probably wants to be 192 00:10:36,880 --> 00:10:38,480 Speaker 1: on or near the lead as well. One is last 193 00:10:38,480 --> 00:10:41,720 Speaker 1: going Wire to Wire, trained by Tim Yachten, who is 194 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:44,760 Speaker 1: a prodigy of Bob Baffort. So that is your quote 195 00:10:44,800 --> 00:10:48,080 Speaker 1: unquote Bafford horse in this race. I don't think he 196 00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:50,120 Speaker 1: has the early speed to be at the lead, and 197 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:52,200 Speaker 1: I don't think he loves the pass horses either, So 198 00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:54,480 Speaker 1: I'm kind of tossing Armagnac out of the picture, even 199 00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:57,440 Speaker 1: though he's sitting at twelve to one. Fenwick and I 200 00:10:57,520 --> 00:11:00,280 Speaker 1: mentioned Happy Jack as well. I don't think they have 201 00:11:00,280 --> 00:11:02,000 Speaker 1: any chance of winning this race. Don't really give them 202 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:03,840 Speaker 1: much of a chance of hitting the board. So the 203 00:11:03,880 --> 00:11:06,320 Speaker 1: two longer shots that I do like Skippy long Stocking 204 00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:10,640 Speaker 1: the nine and then Creative Minister the two attend to one. 205 00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:12,520 Speaker 1: I think those odds will float up a little bit 206 00:11:12,559 --> 00:11:14,880 Speaker 1: from where they are currently. I've seen a lot getting 207 00:11:14,880 --> 00:11:16,520 Speaker 1: a lot of both getting a lot of buzz. I 208 00:11:16,520 --> 00:11:19,640 Speaker 1: should say Creative Minister ran on the undercard on Derby Day. 209 00:11:19,679 --> 00:11:22,680 Speaker 1: He's two for two going around two turns and is 210 00:11:22,880 --> 00:11:25,680 Speaker 1: his owners paid a hundred and fifty dollars supplemental feed 211 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:27,319 Speaker 1: just to put him in the race. That reflects the 212 00:11:27,360 --> 00:11:30,839 Speaker 1: confidence they have and what he showed there came wide 213 00:11:30,840 --> 00:11:33,360 Speaker 1: around the turn and that Churchill Downs race had had 214 00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:36,080 Speaker 1: to pass horses after getting kicked dirt in his face 215 00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:37,480 Speaker 1: all the way around the track. It was a very 216 00:11:37,480 --> 00:11:39,679 Speaker 1: impressive effort. But this is his first time going against 217 00:11:39,679 --> 00:11:42,360 Speaker 1: stakes competition, so it is a step up in competition. 218 00:11:43,040 --> 00:11:45,120 Speaker 1: But I think he's on a path where he's progressing. 219 00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:48,240 Speaker 1: And then Skippy long Stocking his last race in the 220 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:51,199 Speaker 1: Wood Memorials six weeks ago. Generally, I like the horses 221 00:11:51,200 --> 00:11:53,760 Speaker 1: that are coming back on six weeks arrest between races 222 00:11:53,760 --> 00:11:56,000 Speaker 1: instead of two weeks arrest, which you have from the 223 00:11:56,000 --> 00:11:59,319 Speaker 1: horses running on Churchill Downs Derby Day. So six weeks 224 00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:01,880 Speaker 1: between those race, says sitting a twenty two one in 225 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:03,920 Speaker 1: the morning line. I like him at that price. I 226 00:12:03,920 --> 00:12:05,840 Speaker 1: think he can hit the board at that price. Underneath 227 00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:08,640 Speaker 1: liked his race in the Wood Memorial had some excuses 228 00:12:08,679 --> 00:12:15,319 Speaker 1: for why he didn't run better. All right, there's more 229 00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:19,200 Speaker 1: than one way to win when betting on the Preakness. 230 00:12:20,040 --> 00:12:24,600 Speaker 1: Exact is triffect is the boxes in general? How are 231 00:12:24,600 --> 00:12:27,560 Speaker 1: you thinking about the race? What are your favorite exotics? Yeah, 232 00:12:27,559 --> 00:12:29,520 Speaker 1: so I have three scenarios how I see this race 233 00:12:29,559 --> 00:12:32,319 Speaker 1: playing out. The first is Epicenter sitting right off of 234 00:12:32,360 --> 00:12:34,560 Speaker 1: the pace leader early voting, sitting in second or maybe 235 00:12:34,559 --> 00:12:38,480 Speaker 1: even third if Armagnac pressures as well, ends up getting 236 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:41,439 Speaker 1: the ideal trip, passing both of those horses in the stretch, 237 00:12:41,480 --> 00:12:43,240 Speaker 1: and then winning. So the way I would play that 238 00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:46,040 Speaker 1: is Epicenter on top and an EXACTA with the two 239 00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:48,280 Speaker 1: long shots. I just mentioned the number two creative Minister 240 00:12:48,280 --> 00:12:50,559 Speaker 1: in the number nine skippy long stocking, you could put 241 00:12:50,559 --> 00:12:53,720 Speaker 1: them in second place Epicenter on top that exacta would 242 00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:56,800 Speaker 1: pay out a pretty nice price. The other two ways 243 00:12:56,840 --> 00:12:59,440 Speaker 1: I view the race going early voting I mentioned, could 244 00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:02,520 Speaker 1: get an unco tested pace pressure up top, end up 245 00:13:02,600 --> 00:13:05,560 Speaker 1: running a merry go round around the track, finishing in first, 246 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:09,200 Speaker 1: and then you may either get Epicenter just not able 247 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:10,960 Speaker 1: to catch up to him and not running his race. 248 00:13:11,240 --> 00:13:14,600 Speaker 1: That is how I see an upset happening here. Either 249 00:13:14,920 --> 00:13:18,760 Speaker 1: uncontested pace pressure where you get early voting running around 250 00:13:18,760 --> 00:13:21,720 Speaker 1: the track by himself, or Epicenter just doesn't run his race. 251 00:13:22,320 --> 00:13:25,280 Speaker 1: So there's the b option for that, right early voting wins, 252 00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:28,840 Speaker 1: or if early voting gets contested, an Epicenter doesn't run 253 00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:30,960 Speaker 1: his race. I think that's where you have a closer 254 00:13:31,000 --> 00:13:34,000 Speaker 1: like Secret Oath potentially get in their simplification, who is 255 00:13:34,040 --> 00:13:36,240 Speaker 1: a very handy horse as well, very versatile and hidd 256 00:13:36,240 --> 00:13:38,559 Speaker 1: in terms of his running style. Actually think called be 257 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:40,520 Speaker 1: closer to the lead here than he was in the 258 00:13:40,520 --> 00:13:42,880 Speaker 1: derby where he was sitting fifteen and then pass everybody 259 00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:46,960 Speaker 1: to finish fourth. So either you get Epicenter on top 260 00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:49,240 Speaker 1: with those two long shots, or you look to target 261 00:13:49,240 --> 00:13:52,480 Speaker 1: a horse like Early Voting or a horse like Secret 262 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:56,000 Speaker 1: Oath on top, then Epicenter somewhere hitting the board underneath them, 263 00:13:56,040 --> 00:13:57,840 Speaker 1: and then he mixed in those long shots like I said, 264 00:13:57,840 --> 00:14:00,800 Speaker 1: Skippy long Stocking and creative Minister third and four. So 265 00:14:00,880 --> 00:14:03,440 Speaker 1: that's probably how I see the race playing out, is 266 00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:06,079 Speaker 1: one of those three scenarios. But really it just comes 267 00:14:06,120 --> 00:14:08,880 Speaker 1: down to does anybody contest Early Voting on the lead, 268 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:11,920 Speaker 1: and to does Epicenter run his race? That is what's 269 00:14:11,920 --> 00:14:13,959 Speaker 1: going to determine most of the betting options. Still kind 270 00:14:13,960 --> 00:14:15,760 Speaker 1: of figuring out how I want to play it myself. 271 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:18,080 Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna end up with Secret Oath on 272 00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:20,920 Speaker 1: top here. I don't necessarily see anywhere near the type 273 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:22,480 Speaker 1: of pace that we had in the derby. Of course, 274 00:14:22,480 --> 00:14:25,040 Speaker 1: that was a record setting suicidal paste that we may 275 00:14:25,120 --> 00:14:27,640 Speaker 1: never see again. But all the same, I think Early 276 00:14:27,680 --> 00:14:29,760 Speaker 1: Voting has a pretty clear path of victory if nobody 277 00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:32,120 Speaker 1: can test them early. And other than that, I do 278 00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:34,480 Speaker 1: love secret Os late kick, and I think the Philly 279 00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:36,920 Speaker 1: is always a little bit undervalued going into the breekness. 280 00:14:37,720 --> 00:14:41,440 Speaker 1: The television ratings and the derby were ridiculous. Uh, and 281 00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:45,280 Speaker 1: then the follow up social interactions because of uh, the 282 00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:51,000 Speaker 1: upset nature of the race outstanding. There's nothing more exciting 283 00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:54,560 Speaker 1: than a Triple Crown race. Uh. Those are three minutes 284 00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:58,880 Speaker 1: that are just heart pounding. I'm gonna bet it, I'm 285 00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:02,440 Speaker 1: gonna look forward to it, probably gonna watch it, and 286 00:15:02,560 --> 00:15:06,560 Speaker 1: then I look forward to the Belma. Belmont Steaks Day 287 00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:08,040 Speaker 1: is my favorite day of the year. I call it 288 00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:10,840 Speaker 1: the Midsummer Classic. Usually get eight or nine Grade one 289 00:15:10,880 --> 00:15:14,800 Speaker 1: Steaks races in addition to the Belmont Steaks, so really 290 00:15:14,840 --> 00:15:16,680 Speaker 1: it is sort of a preview of the Breeders Cup 291 00:15:16,720 --> 00:15:18,320 Speaker 1: that we end up getting later in the year November. 292 00:15:18,400 --> 00:15:20,200 Speaker 1: A lot of the horses who end up competing for 293 00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:23,280 Speaker 1: the Breeders Cup they both qualify for it through racing 294 00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:25,480 Speaker 1: on Belmont Steaks Day, but you also get a preview 295 00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:27,520 Speaker 1: of a lot of those races. And my favorite race 296 00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:29,720 Speaker 1: in particular is the Metropolitan Mile. I don't know if 297 00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:32,320 Speaker 1: we're gonna talk before that. My favorite race every year. 298 00:15:32,400 --> 00:15:34,600 Speaker 1: It is in the sequence leading up to the Belmont Steaks. 299 00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:36,960 Speaker 1: That's where you get the sprinters who are trying to 300 00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:39,680 Speaker 1: extend out to a mile and the horses like these, 301 00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:41,760 Speaker 1: the route horses who typically run a mile and a 302 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:44,560 Speaker 1: quarter or longer looking to cut back in distance that 303 00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:47,320 Speaker 1: mile race, so you get the best sprinters and the 304 00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:50,320 Speaker 1: best route horses trying to compete their older horses, not 305 00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:52,640 Speaker 1: three year olds, but the met mile I think is 306 00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:54,800 Speaker 1: my favorite race of the year every year, other than 307 00:15:54,880 --> 00:15:58,400 Speaker 1: probably Breeders Cup that the playoffs are heating up and 308 00:15:58,440 --> 00:16:01,000 Speaker 1: you can make every game feel like Game seven. 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In Michigan called the 333 00:17:26,320 --> 00:17:29,080 Speaker 1: Tennessee Red Line one eight hundred eight eight nine nine 334 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:32,720 Speaker 1: eight nine or visit one eight hundred gambler dot net 335 00:17:32,920 --> 00:17:38,600 Speaker 1: in West Virginia. Zeroo, everything is going your way right now. 336 00:17:39,160 --> 00:17:43,919 Speaker 1: We had a incredibly exciting derby which shines a brighter 337 00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:46,399 Speaker 1: light on the prekness even if Fritz Strike isn't going 338 00:17:46,480 --> 00:17:49,960 Speaker 1: to be in it. Lo and behold. You mentioned the 339 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:57,040 Speaker 1: phrase Metropolitan. The New York Metropolitans are leading the NL 340 00:17:57,119 --> 00:18:01,840 Speaker 1: East right now by a y margin. They are one 341 00:18:01,880 --> 00:18:04,600 Speaker 1: of the best teams in baseball. Simon's shaking his head 342 00:18:04,640 --> 00:18:07,560 Speaker 1: because they're up on the Phillies by about six games, 343 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:11,879 Speaker 1: and the New York Yankees, as usual, they got to 344 00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:15,440 Speaker 1: steal the Mets thunder have the best record in baseball, 345 00:18:16,000 --> 00:18:19,560 Speaker 1: and if you look to the NL West, Dodgers, Padres, 346 00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:24,600 Speaker 1: Giants all have north of towny wins. Baseball has been 347 00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:31,040 Speaker 1: incredible this year. Ratings are up, games are exciting. Manfred 348 00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:32,359 Speaker 1: can't figure out a way to get out of his 349 00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 1: own way, and yet it's still succeeding at the highest levels. 350 00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:39,840 Speaker 1: We're a quarter of the way through the season. What 351 00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:41,679 Speaker 1: do people need to know if they're just catching up 352 00:18:41,760 --> 00:18:45,359 Speaker 1: right now? I think if you haven't been paying attention 353 00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:48,760 Speaker 1: everybody trying to adjust to the totals environment and the 354 00:18:48,840 --> 00:18:52,560 Speaker 1: run scoring environment has clearly been the story of the year. Now, 355 00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:55,440 Speaker 1: if you just bet the under in every game in April, 356 00:18:55,800 --> 00:18:57,600 Speaker 1: you would have been up hundred hours per game. You 357 00:18:57,640 --> 00:18:59,639 Speaker 1: would have been up over four thousand dollars. With the 358 00:18:59,680 --> 00:19:03,560 Speaker 1: thirty percent are all I absolutely absurd. The totals at 359 00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:06,840 Speaker 1: the start of the year opened on average across the 360 00:19:06,840 --> 00:19:09,359 Speaker 1: board around eight point eight. That was your average total 361 00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:11,679 Speaker 1: for the day. By the end of April it had 362 00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:14,080 Speaker 1: dropped the full run to seven point eight. For the 363 00:19:14,119 --> 00:19:16,040 Speaker 1: first two weeks of May, we were as low as 364 00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:18,199 Speaker 1: seven point three seven point four. So the books were 365 00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:21,280 Speaker 1: aggressively trying to adjust these totals, one for their being 366 00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:24,639 Speaker 1: humanors in all thirty parks, two for bad weather, and 367 00:19:24,680 --> 00:19:27,240 Speaker 1: then three for these new baseballs that we haven't played. Now, 368 00:19:27,280 --> 00:19:29,040 Speaker 1: nobody has really been able to put a finger on 369 00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:31,919 Speaker 1: whether they're still mixing in old baseballs in addition to 370 00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:34,159 Speaker 1: the new baseballs. But what I can tell you is 371 00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:38,320 Speaker 1: home runs are down about year over year, and remember 372 00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:42,359 Speaker 1: they were up even higher than they were last year. 373 00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:44,680 Speaker 1: I mean we hit records setting home run totals then 374 00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:48,679 Speaker 1: so and even more substantial drop relative to what looked 375 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:52,720 Speaker 1: like the second juice ball erat drop in terms of 376 00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:56,440 Speaker 1: home run per fly ball rate, So substantial decrease in 377 00:19:56,480 --> 00:19:58,719 Speaker 1: the number of balls that are leaving the guard. You 378 00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:01,360 Speaker 1: can put it number on exactly, or I should shouldn't 379 00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:04,359 Speaker 1: say exactly, but around thirty to forty balls that last 380 00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:06,640 Speaker 1: year would have been guaranteed home runs that have died 381 00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:09,160 Speaker 1: at the warning track this year. From watching these games, 382 00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:10,639 Speaker 1: I feel like I see one or two at night, 383 00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:12,640 Speaker 1: so I could put the number even higher. But it's 384 00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:15,119 Speaker 1: very apparent based on the hitter's body language that when 385 00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:17,000 Speaker 1: they get into a ball and then it dies at 386 00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:19,399 Speaker 1: the warning track, they give that little hop that's Sammy 387 00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:21,959 Speaker 1: Sosa hot when they connect with the ball, and then 388 00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:23,600 Speaker 1: they're just throwing their hands up like how did it 389 00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:26,119 Speaker 1: fall into a glove? So the ball is clearly on 390 00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:29,520 Speaker 1: more often than not circumstances dying at the wall this year, 391 00:20:29,760 --> 00:20:32,560 Speaker 1: which is very frustrating watch, particularly if you have overs. 392 00:20:33,119 --> 00:20:34,880 Speaker 1: But we've seen these totals come all the way back 393 00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:37,640 Speaker 1: up now to eight point two As of today, eight 394 00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:40,840 Speaker 1: point four one course field is involved. Overs are hitting 395 00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:43,240 Speaker 1: about as often as you'd expect now for the month 396 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:45,480 Speaker 1: of May. Earlier in the month they were hitting around 397 00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:47,800 Speaker 1: fifties six percent, so I think the books have certainly 398 00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:49,439 Speaker 1: leveled it out. I said earlier in the month they 399 00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:52,120 Speaker 1: were sitting around seven point three seven point four. We've 400 00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:54,760 Speaker 1: middled out now on your average total for the day, 401 00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:57,800 Speaker 1: so books seem like have finally adjusted to what the 402 00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:00,800 Speaker 1: run environment should be also things like the left field 403 00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:03,480 Speaker 1: and Camden yards to contend with. They move that left 404 00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:07,160 Speaker 1: field back fort and right handed hitters at Cannon Yards 405 00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:10,880 Speaker 1: are hitting about two versus hitting about two fifty last year. 406 00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:13,200 Speaker 1: So there's a lot of factors at play, but it's 407 00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:15,879 Speaker 1: certainly the human oars and the baseballs are toying with 408 00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:18,280 Speaker 1: everything more than anything else. Just one more thing I'll mention, 409 00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:21,080 Speaker 1: if you just took the same batted balls that we 410 00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:23,640 Speaker 1: had last year and carried them over to this year, 411 00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:27,920 Speaker 1: you look at the expected metrics. Expected batting average should 412 00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:31,000 Speaker 1: be to fifty three, it is two thirty three. Expected 413 00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:33,920 Speaker 1: slugs should be four thirty five, it's three seventy one. 414 00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:37,840 Speaker 1: So substantial gaps between the performance of the baseball's last 415 00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:41,680 Speaker 1: year versus this year. So I was not laughing about 416 00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:44,119 Speaker 1: the Mets chat being up six games. I was laughing 417 00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:47,400 Speaker 1: at the sense that I'm remembers this and I think 418 00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:49,640 Speaker 1: it might have an o six that those are ten 419 00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:52,800 Speaker 1: games behind them. That's since September we came back, we 420 00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:56,200 Speaker 1: won the division, and that's just baseball. So and may, Yeah, 421 00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:58,119 Speaker 1: being six games back, it kind of stinks. At the 422 00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:01,080 Speaker 1: same time, I don't know it be worse like last 423 00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:03,360 Speaker 1: night's shows, are had an elbow thing and I don't 424 00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:05,520 Speaker 1: be an evil guy, but you know, deep down inside, 425 00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:09,320 Speaker 1: I was like, good, great, but apparently he's not that hurt, 426 00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:12,080 Speaker 1: so all things gonna go and good for the Mets. 427 00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:14,399 Speaker 1: Will get the ground back pretty soon. It's it's a 428 00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:16,800 Speaker 1: good time to be a Mets fan. Um. They were 429 00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:18,439 Speaker 1: playing well until the JUNI last year, though, I mean 430 00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:20,199 Speaker 1: they were on top of the division and then absolutely 431 00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:22,160 Speaker 1: tank in the second half once the ground got hurt. 432 00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:24,359 Speaker 1: So I mean this stuff changes on a fly. Like 433 00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:26,080 Speaker 1: like you said, if Scho is hurt and the ground 434 00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:28,840 Speaker 1: doesn't come back healthy, I would certainly have significant concerns 435 00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:31,119 Speaker 1: about the Bats. I'm not touching their futures because I 436 00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:32,880 Speaker 1: know the moment I do, they're gonna go down now. 437 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:36,320 Speaker 1: And it's Sean, just you talk about this year started. 438 00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:39,280 Speaker 1: I talked a couple of pros who you know, baseball 439 00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:43,119 Speaker 1: is the ultimate grind. There's really nothing comparable to it. 440 00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:45,960 Speaker 1: If you're sports better, it's truly. I mean I talk 441 00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:47,520 Speaker 1: all the time with I'll chat with it like I'll 442 00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:50,320 Speaker 1: lose a ton of money on a Sunday and by 443 00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:51,840 Speaker 1: Monday morning. It has to kind of be out of 444 00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:55,520 Speaker 1: my mind. Baseball is that on steroids, Like literally, I 445 00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:57,359 Speaker 1: might have one game that bet on that Monday, you know, 446 00:22:57,400 --> 00:22:58,760 Speaker 1: the Monday night game, and then I'm good for the 447 00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:00,040 Speaker 1: rest of the week. I might have a Thursday of 448 00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:03,160 Speaker 1: them good n til Sunday. Baseball, these guys every day 449 00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:06,160 Speaker 1: you have ten games going on. Whatever. What's that been 450 00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:09,199 Speaker 1: like this season where so much is unknown with the balls? 451 00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:12,359 Speaker 1: You know, you're saying they are different balls. Different guys 452 00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:14,520 Speaker 1: are saying that maybe it's because of the no spring 453 00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:16,960 Speaker 1: training or the shorter spring training, that's why the bats 454 00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:19,280 Speaker 1: were still behind the pitching where you should the other 455 00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:21,600 Speaker 1: way and it just should just hearing you talk about it. 456 00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:23,639 Speaker 1: What's that been like? The grind this season, trying to 457 00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:25,760 Speaker 1: get down, you know, taking these dogs or taking these 458 00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:28,280 Speaker 1: unders where it's really there's no rhythm to it. Yeah, 459 00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:30,000 Speaker 1: And with the short and spring training as well, you 460 00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:32,640 Speaker 1: also had expanded rosters and more relief pictures on those 461 00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:35,399 Speaker 1: rosters too, so starters were going shorter in games, and 462 00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:37,959 Speaker 1: then managers were playing matchups much more heavily the rest 463 00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:39,560 Speaker 1: of the game as well, So that contributed to the 464 00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:42,560 Speaker 1: unders two now those rosters have shrunk a little bit, 465 00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:44,600 Speaker 1: the relievers are starting get tired, so I think things 466 00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:46,880 Speaker 1: are normalizing back to what we'd expect a little bit. 467 00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:49,080 Speaker 1: I've been all over the place though. I was down 468 00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:51,600 Speaker 1: as early as much as seven units early in the season. 469 00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:54,560 Speaker 1: Ended up finishing April up nine units. So we had 470 00:23:54,560 --> 00:23:56,479 Speaker 1: a big run to end the month. And then the 471 00:23:56,480 --> 00:23:58,760 Speaker 1: first day of May May one, it was a Sunday, 472 00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:01,760 Speaker 1: bloody sun. I lost eight units on that day. It's 473 00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:03,520 Speaker 1: the biggest losing day I've had in four years of 474 00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:06,840 Speaker 1: doing this, Absolutely miserable. I've ended up calling some of 475 00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:08,840 Speaker 1: that back. I believe I'm sitting around plus four and 476 00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:10,760 Speaker 1: a half plus five in the year. We're going to 477 00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:14,000 Speaker 1: continue to grind. Usually that May month, as in season 478 00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:17,240 Speaker 1: data starts to get factored in and I start to 479 00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:19,400 Speaker 1: trust the instate that in season data that we're seeing 480 00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:22,360 Speaker 1: around the quarter pole forty games, thirty five games. That's 481 00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:24,280 Speaker 1: when I start to have more successes we get into 482 00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:26,280 Speaker 1: the summer because I figure out who these players are 483 00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:29,159 Speaker 1: in season. But you're right, it's an absolute grind. You 484 00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:31,040 Speaker 1: sort of have to put your worst days behind you 485 00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:34,280 Speaker 1: immediately and look forward to the next day, just sort 486 00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:36,000 Speaker 1: of put that completely out of your head. You can't 487 00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:38,879 Speaker 1: judge or adjust your projections based off of what you 488 00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:41,240 Speaker 1: saw today. You could do it off of recent data 489 00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:43,600 Speaker 1: and seeing how these totals are adjusting, how the weather 490 00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:47,240 Speaker 1: is improving, etcetera. But I've had to aggressively adjust my 491 00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:49,880 Speaker 1: totals as I mentioned, and I'm actually proud to say 492 00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:52,160 Speaker 1: I've been ahead of the market in both months. Even 493 00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:55,040 Speaker 1: though unders were winning at a fifty nine percent rate 494 00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:58,159 Speaker 1: in April, I actually hit six of my bets on unders. 495 00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:01,600 Speaker 1: Overs were winning, like I said, percent of the time. 496 00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:04,120 Speaker 1: I think I hit of those in April, and then 497 00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:06,199 Speaker 1: the same thing has been true in May. I've been 498 00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:09,080 Speaker 1: about two to three percent ahead of the market on totals. 499 00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:11,880 Speaker 1: The real difficulty has been with the favorites. Favorites were 500 00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:15,320 Speaker 1: crushing early in April, and particularly first five favorites, first 501 00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:18,639 Speaker 1: five favorites percent of the time. That's dropped over twelve 502 00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:21,360 Speaker 1: percent in May. So everything has sort of come back 503 00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:23,360 Speaker 1: to earth. There always is a regression to the mean. 504 00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:26,199 Speaker 1: That's that I still try to protect these games on 505 00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:28,879 Speaker 1: an individual basis and bet my numbers, don't bet teams. 506 00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:31,439 Speaker 1: I can't tell you most of the time, aside from 507 00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:33,760 Speaker 1: the Reds, who I know are absolute crap, I can't 508 00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:35,680 Speaker 1: tell you what these teams records are most of the time. 509 00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:38,760 Speaker 1: I don't look at standings. I don't really carry over results. 510 00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:41,240 Speaker 1: I really do try to filter out everything as much 511 00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:43,359 Speaker 1: as possible. I'm aware of who's on top of the 512 00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:46,080 Speaker 1: division generally, how teams are doing. I knew that all 513 00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:48,399 Speaker 1: the NL West was trending over five at one point, 514 00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:50,919 Speaker 1: but by and large, if you asked me a random 515 00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:53,320 Speaker 1: teams record on a random day, I probably couldn't tell you. 516 00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:55,760 Speaker 1: Would you still take the under on the Red sixty 517 00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:59,080 Speaker 1: wins for the season, that's right about where they're trending 518 00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:03,960 Speaker 1: right now. Uh, they were a mid seventies team coming 519 00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:07,160 Speaker 1: into the year. Was roughly their season win total. If 520 00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:09,159 Speaker 1: you still play them out as that the rest of 521 00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:11,680 Speaker 1: the way, I think they're pacing for sixty three or 522 00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:14,240 Speaker 1: sixty four wins. But it's so hard to project this 523 00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:17,800 Speaker 1: team because their owner or team president, I should say. 524 00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:21,040 Speaker 1: On on opening Day they traded Jesse Winker to Seattle, 525 00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:23,480 Speaker 1: and he basically admitted, like, go route for somebody else. 526 00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:26,280 Speaker 1: If you don't care about us not spending money. It 527 00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:28,919 Speaker 1: was pretty insulting, and it seems like the players with 528 00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:31,400 Speaker 1: that had just quit from the jump. So there's six 529 00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:33,000 Speaker 1: and four in their last ten. I said at some 530 00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:35,359 Speaker 1: point people would lose money trying to fade them on 531 00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:37,760 Speaker 1: the night Tonight basis. That has definitely happened of late. 532 00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:40,000 Speaker 1: But yeah, I don't see any reason why their players 533 00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:42,520 Speaker 1: have any means to be competitive other than wanting to 534 00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:45,359 Speaker 1: keep a job. Of the major leagues. When you had 535 00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:51,840 Speaker 1: that's Sunday, bloody Sunday, give me the details. Where were you? 536 00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:56,040 Speaker 1: Did you watch every game? What? What kind of bets 537 00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:59,439 Speaker 1: were you losing? Simon? What are you laughing at? Wasn't that? 538 00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:02,240 Speaker 1: I believe that a mother's day no better wants to 539 00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:04,439 Speaker 1: relive their worst days. These are like, I want to 540 00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:07,480 Speaker 1: know every detail of that mystery now. So it was 541 00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:09,440 Speaker 1: it was it was the week before, so it was 542 00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:11,720 Speaker 1: May one. I was actually at my parents house, and 543 00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:13,720 Speaker 1: it's very difficult to be with people who you love 544 00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:16,040 Speaker 1: and want to spend time with them and not be 545 00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:18,360 Speaker 1: distracted by what's going on. But then you flip open 546 00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:21,040 Speaker 1: the action app and you see that you're trending for 547 00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:23,560 Speaker 1: like a four and twenty day, and you're just like 548 00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:25,879 Speaker 1: what is going to happen because usually, you know, at 549 00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:27,600 Speaker 1: the start of my nights, I mean, they're doing very 550 00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:29,480 Speaker 1: well and all my bets are doing very poorly on 551 00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:31,440 Speaker 1: all my bets. By the end of the night, things 552 00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:34,520 Speaker 1: usually swing. You know, there's always that regression and games 553 00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:37,359 Speaker 1: sort of flip laid. Bullpen blowing. Blow up season is 554 00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:40,240 Speaker 1: back in full effect now that we have fewer relievers 555 00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:42,280 Speaker 1: on these teams. But it's very difficult to be with 556 00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:44,080 Speaker 1: people that you love and want to spend full time 557 00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:46,960 Speaker 1: with them and not be completely distracted by you having 558 00:27:47,000 --> 00:27:49,960 Speaker 1: the worst professional day you've had in four years. So yeah, 559 00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:52,280 Speaker 1: I mean it's difficult. Maybe shut that phone off, put 560 00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:54,440 Speaker 1: it away when you're with the people that you love 561 00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:58,280 Speaker 1: so you're not completely distracted, but listen. By by the 562 00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:01,040 Speaker 1: next day, I had not completely forgotten about it because 563 00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:03,399 Speaker 1: I was still bummed out, but I had to forward, 564 00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:05,720 Speaker 1: move forward, and focus because you have a full slate 565 00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:08,399 Speaker 1: of games on that Monday to reallocate your capital and 566 00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:10,800 Speaker 1: your time too. And if you're going to be distracted 567 00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:13,520 Speaker 1: by those results, it's not the game for you. Sean, 568 00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:17,560 Speaker 1: you are a surprisingly emotional guy. I don't buy the 569 00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:20,080 Speaker 1: fact that by Monday, you had let it all go. 570 00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:22,920 Speaker 1: Not all of it go, but you have to let 571 00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:24,960 Speaker 1: most of it go. You know, if I'm gonna sit 572 00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:27,840 Speaker 1: down and project out these games, these fifteen games we 573 00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:30,760 Speaker 1: usually have every day in my model and take three 574 00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:33,320 Speaker 1: to four hours with it, in addition to finding all 575 00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:35,639 Speaker 1: these lines, shopping all these lines and putting in my money. 576 00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:38,760 Speaker 1: Believe me, there's that hesitancy there. You're you don't want 577 00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:42,680 Speaker 1: to put out twenty units worth of allocation knowing that 578 00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:45,200 Speaker 1: you just lost eight the day before, and am I 579 00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:47,440 Speaker 1: gonna lose all twenty of these today? Like yeah, I 580 00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:49,760 Speaker 1: mean it's it's definitely difficult, but you have to find 581 00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:51,360 Speaker 1: a way to overcome it if you want to just 582 00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:53,480 Speaker 1: keep plugging along with this, Like Simon said, it's an 583 00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:56,000 Speaker 1: absolute grind. You never know when your good days are 584 00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:57,600 Speaker 1: gonna come. You never know when you're bad days are 585 00:28:57,600 --> 00:28:59,959 Speaker 1: gonna come. You just have to keep at it. Sometimes 586 00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:01,720 Speaker 1: times I love a slate and end up getting killed. 587 00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:04,480 Speaker 1: Sometimes I hate a slate ended up having a phenomenal day. 588 00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:06,640 Speaker 1: I really don't know. It's honestly why I hate the 589 00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:09,400 Speaker 1: concept of quote unquote best bets in general. I may 590 00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:11,600 Speaker 1: love a bet absolutely love a bat may have two 591 00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:13,640 Speaker 1: units on at three units on it. I generally don't 592 00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:16,200 Speaker 1: go over two or three units on an individual baseball 593 00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:18,800 Speaker 1: game because there is so much variants. But I may 594 00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:20,719 Speaker 1: absolutely love a game and they may lose the love 595 00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:23,320 Speaker 1: of nothing. There's there's just no way to control it. 596 00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:25,000 Speaker 1: It's not like a football game where you see it 597 00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:27,400 Speaker 1: play out of her four records and have ability to 598 00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:31,120 Speaker 1: jumping live multiple points or what have you. I think 599 00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:34,000 Speaker 1: each individual baseball game is just such a random sample 600 00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:36,760 Speaker 1: of who teams are that you just kind of have 601 00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:40,880 Speaker 1: to throw it away. Baseball is a professionals game in 602 00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:44,240 Speaker 1: every single way. What do you make of You know, 603 00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:48,680 Speaker 1: sports is nothing without conspiracy theories? What do you make 604 00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:53,400 Speaker 1: of the conspiracy theories about the games on Apple TV, 605 00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:59,040 Speaker 1: ESPN plus um. Just to sort of define it a 606 00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:03,280 Speaker 1: little bit, there are stories out there that sort of 607 00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:07,640 Speaker 1: these prime time games juice balls are making those games 608 00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:11,440 Speaker 1: in particular go over. I'm starting to buy into it 609 00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:14,480 Speaker 1: a little bit. There's some funky stuff going on with 610 00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:17,440 Speaker 1: these Apple TV games Prime Now they're on Peacock as well, 611 00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:20,959 Speaker 1: replacing some of the soccer covers that they had. I 612 00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:23,160 Speaker 1: need to dig into it. Further and actually go through 613 00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:25,960 Speaker 1: each of these individual games and figure out what the 614 00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:28,520 Speaker 1: trend is for overs and unders. But I can tell 615 00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:31,720 Speaker 1: you it's definitely higher than whatever our percentages on the season. Now. 616 00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:33,880 Speaker 1: I don't know if it's a huge sample enough to 617 00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:37,400 Speaker 1: say definitively so, but I know that they're mixing in 618 00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:39,840 Speaker 1: old balls and new balls. It's very obvious when you 619 00:30:39,880 --> 00:30:41,600 Speaker 1: get two batted balls that are hit at the same 620 00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:45,360 Speaker 1: launch angle, the same velocity in the same park, and 621 00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:48,440 Speaker 1: one goes out and the other does. So they're mixing 622 00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:51,080 Speaker 1: in new and old baseballs. Where they're mixing them in. 623 00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:54,040 Speaker 1: I don't really know. Are they doing it with intentionality. 624 00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:57,120 Speaker 1: I couldn't tell you, but I've seen enough conspiracy theories 625 00:30:57,120 --> 00:30:59,720 Speaker 1: from hitting coaches, players, what have you. There's a good 626 00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:01,920 Speaker 1: article about the Phillies out there. I think it was 627 00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:04,680 Speaker 1: from Sports Illustrated. I could be wrong, but about how 628 00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:06,840 Speaker 1: they're batted ball data on the home at home and 629 00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:10,560 Speaker 1: on the road is virtually identical. They're actually top five 630 00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:13,240 Speaker 1: and expected metrics. I believe we're both pitching and hitting. 631 00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:15,000 Speaker 1: I do like how the Phillies are trending. I have 632 00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:17,400 Speaker 1: a World Series feature on them, and I think they're 633 00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:20,120 Speaker 1: cool start at home offensively, maybe contributing to the fact 634 00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:22,280 Speaker 1: that they're sub five hundred at the moment. The run 635 00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:25,240 Speaker 1: differential is plus eighteen, so they should be trending a 636 00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:27,800 Speaker 1: bit better. But there are certain teams like the Phillies 637 00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:31,520 Speaker 1: whose home road splits are so dramatic that it's almost 638 00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:34,320 Speaker 1: telling that there's something going on with the ball. Addition 639 00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:36,200 Speaker 1: to the fact that we have those human doors in 640 00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:38,200 Speaker 1: all thirty parks now. Last year, I believe they were 641 00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:40,959 Speaker 1: only in seven or eight parks. Now they're in all thirty. 642 00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:44,760 Speaker 1: MLB has said that offense should increase actually due to 643 00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:47,400 Speaker 1: the humand oars and what would normally be warmer climates 644 00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:49,640 Speaker 1: as we get into the summer. So we'll see if 645 00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:51,920 Speaker 1: we end up getting more offense during the summer than 646 00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:53,920 Speaker 1: we had relative to last year. Maybe it's gonna be 647 00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:57,480 Speaker 1: a dip and cooler temperatures than an increase in warmer temperatures. 648 00:31:57,520 --> 00:31:59,480 Speaker 1: But we haven't seen him play out yet, so for 649 00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:01,720 Speaker 1: now it's a game. But I rely on what the 650 00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:04,280 Speaker 1: hitting coaches and what the players are saying. They say 651 00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:06,760 Speaker 1: there's something up with the balls, I tend to believe Yeah. 652 00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:09,040 Speaker 1: As a Phillies fanom hoping that Dodgers series kind of 653 00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:15,000 Speaker 1: a turning point for this team because they yeah, right, exactly. 654 00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:16,800 Speaker 1: So when you're looking at this point of the season, 655 00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:19,160 Speaker 1: are there any futures Like there are teams that you 656 00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:20,840 Speaker 1: haven't met coming to the year that now you're looking 657 00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:22,960 Speaker 1: at their future saying, you know what, these teams cann 658 00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:24,480 Speaker 1: have a nice little run or they have a favorable 659 00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:26,520 Speaker 1: schedule or division that they can make our run to 660 00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:28,960 Speaker 1: the postseason. Do you have anything that's like to be 661 00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:30,719 Speaker 1: a launch at just a future you've been eyeing up 662 00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:33,040 Speaker 1: lately for this, you know, half of the quarter of 663 00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:35,280 Speaker 1: the season, and who you like at this point. Yeah, 664 00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:36,920 Speaker 1: So the Yankees aren't gonna win at a hundred and 665 00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:38,760 Speaker 1: twenty two win paced the rest of the year. That's 666 00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:42,280 Speaker 1: where they're trending right now. The Razors still sitting around 667 00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:44,440 Speaker 1: six six and a half to one in the AL East. 668 00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:46,920 Speaker 1: The Yankees have another game with the Oaths today. They 669 00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:49,520 Speaker 1: have three more with them until they start their season 670 00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:52,239 Speaker 1: series with the Rays. I believe March or May so 671 00:32:52,360 --> 00:32:54,840 Speaker 1: a week from now. That's when I jump in on 672 00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:56,560 Speaker 1: the Rays. The Rais ended up pulling away to win 673 00:32:56,600 --> 00:32:59,200 Speaker 1: that division last year. I have preseason futures on the 674 00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:02,040 Speaker 1: Blue Jays, they fall on pretty far back, but knowing 675 00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:04,360 Speaker 1: that you're going to get that entire season series with 676 00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:06,800 Speaker 1: the Rays factored and against the Yankees getting six and 677 00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:08,720 Speaker 1: a half to one, if you want to pounce on 678 00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:10,720 Speaker 1: a bigger long shot to win a division, I'd say 679 00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:14,000 Speaker 1: that's where I jump in the Phillies. The one concern 680 00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:16,160 Speaker 1: that I have is Bryce Harper may need Tommy John. 681 00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:18,520 Speaker 1: Apparently he's gonna try d ching for a little while 682 00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:21,720 Speaker 1: and seeing how that goes. He's been tremendous at the plate, 683 00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:25,080 Speaker 1: I mean, looks right back to his MVP self. We'll 684 00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:28,800 Speaker 1: see if he can keep that up. They're terrible defensively, 685 00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:30,720 Speaker 1: but they should hit as well as anyone. And I said, 686 00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:32,640 Speaker 1: they're actually one of four teams who are in the 687 00:33:32,680 --> 00:33:35,920 Speaker 1: top five for expected stats both offensively and on the 688 00:33:35,920 --> 00:33:38,480 Speaker 1: pitching side, so they're trending very well. I like how 689 00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:40,440 Speaker 1: their offense shapes up. I've said, if they can add 690 00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:43,400 Speaker 1: bullpen pieces, I think they're as good at as a 691 00:33:43,560 --> 00:33:45,960 Speaker 1: World Series long shot as anyone. I bet them forty 692 00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:49,120 Speaker 1: two one preseason. They're still around that number now, guaranteed 693 00:33:49,120 --> 00:33:51,840 Speaker 1: three game wild Card series you're giving me Nolah Wheeler 694 00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:54,360 Speaker 1: and Rangers Suarez in those three games. They can play 695 00:33:54,360 --> 00:33:56,760 Speaker 1: with anybody. So if they're able to get into the dance, 696 00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:58,160 Speaker 1: the Phillies can make a run. And I like the 697 00:33:58,160 --> 00:33:59,920 Speaker 1: way the Brewers are trending. That's one of my other 698 00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:04,080 Speaker 1: preseason futures too. Eric lower starting on Friday, you could 699 00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:05,640 Speaker 1: take a look at him, and he has developed into 700 00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:08,000 Speaker 1: the top of the rotation starter. They have four lead 701 00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:10,960 Speaker 1: starting pitchers, a great bullpen. And by the way, their 702 00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:14,359 Speaker 1: offense was around sixt eight and expected metrics last year, 703 00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:17,160 Speaker 1: their top five this year, so that offense has much improved. 704 00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:20,479 Speaker 1: Christian Yellowish looks healthy again, rowdy to les, crushing the ball. 705 00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:22,879 Speaker 1: Really like the way the Brews are shaping up. Bet 706 00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:25,040 Speaker 1: them big in the Central again this year, and I 707 00:34:25,040 --> 00:34:27,640 Speaker 1: think they're live to win the World Series. Just real quick. 708 00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:31,080 Speaker 1: Isn't that crazy? This Yankees thing? Because I I know 709 00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:33,920 Speaker 1: just of just two groups that are real high level groups, 710 00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:37,000 Speaker 1: they were huge on fading the Yankees coming to the season. 711 00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:39,680 Speaker 1: They bet their underwin totals. They bet them I think 712 00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:42,080 Speaker 1: third or fourth come in that division like they had Tampa. 713 00:34:42,120 --> 00:34:43,600 Speaker 1: They had the Blue Jays above them. And they had 714 00:34:43,640 --> 00:34:47,399 Speaker 1: them in Boston fighting for that last spot there. I mean, 715 00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:48,919 Speaker 1: it is crazy what the Yankees are doing, but there 716 00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:50,880 Speaker 1: you can say they're the best team in baseball right now. 717 00:34:50,960 --> 00:34:53,279 Speaker 1: Right then are the Dodgers Certainly, I believe they have 718 00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:55,560 Speaker 1: the highest rob They have a seventy five un differential 719 00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:57,000 Speaker 1: the Daughters of eighty three, so they have a high 720 00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:59,919 Speaker 1: Senior American league. Their pitching has been tremendous and very deep. 721 00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:02,160 Speaker 1: Gary Cole has gotten to the point where people are 722 00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:05,120 Speaker 1: underrating him based off of the sticky stuff that whole Fiasca. 723 00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:07,960 Speaker 1: He's been tremendous. But their rotation is much deeper than 724 00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:10,000 Speaker 1: it has been in previous years. Got a guy like 725 00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:13,560 Speaker 1: Michael King and the bullpen who looks completely untouchable. Chapman 726 00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:16,920 Speaker 1: has been a little bit concerning, but buying large besides 727 00:35:16,960 --> 00:35:18,760 Speaker 1: the back end of their lineup. I think the Yankees 728 00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:20,279 Speaker 1: are pretty much a complete team, and we know they're 729 00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:22,840 Speaker 1: gonna add pieces of the deadline, So getting off to 730 00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:24,920 Speaker 1: a hot start like this is only going to increase 731 00:35:25,600 --> 00:35:28,160 Speaker 1: pressure on ownership to end up spending, which they haven't 732 00:35:28,200 --> 00:35:30,399 Speaker 1: done in previous years. You know, they did go out 733 00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:32,600 Speaker 1: and get a couple of bats last year. But yeah, 734 00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:35,000 Speaker 1: I think the Yankees are definitely shaping up well. There 735 00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:37,399 Speaker 1: was some projection systems that had them around nineties seven 736 00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:39,400 Speaker 1: wins coming into the season. That's where I put their 737 00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:42,560 Speaker 1: paraded total. I had them closer to ninety. I think 738 00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:44,880 Speaker 1: fanger Ass had them closer to ninety. Pakota had them 739 00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:47,800 Speaker 1: closer to ninety seven. So there was a discrepancy between 740 00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:49,840 Speaker 1: whether the Blue Jays or the Yankees were the best team. 741 00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:52,279 Speaker 1: But I mean, as of now, it certainly looks like 742 00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:53,640 Speaker 1: since they were able to beat up on the Blue 743 00:35:53,680 --> 00:35:55,520 Speaker 1: Jays in the head the head that they're going to 744 00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:57,839 Speaker 1: come out on top. But listen, like I said, they're 745 00:35:57,840 --> 00:35:59,719 Speaker 1: not gonna play a d and twenty two one paced 746 00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:01,440 Speaker 1: the to the way. At some point they will hit 747 00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:03,640 Speaker 1: a skid. And my whole point of that was just 748 00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:06,960 Speaker 1: too if you're a better understand that you're gonna get 749 00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:09,400 Speaker 1: a lot of value this rest of the year getting 750 00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:12,279 Speaker 1: going against the Yankees. Yankees are already a public team, 751 00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:14,840 Speaker 1: so you might be getting extra plus forty plus fifty 752 00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:18,479 Speaker 1: bump every game going against them now, just because again 753 00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:20,680 Speaker 1: they're nine and one their last ten twenty and nine 754 00:36:20,680 --> 00:36:22,400 Speaker 1: to start the season. People are just really hyping up 755 00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:25,160 Speaker 1: the Yankees team. So if you're at Baseball Better and 756 00:36:25,160 --> 00:36:28,399 Speaker 1: you're looking for a lazy method, I'm telling you, fade 757 00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:30,760 Speaker 1: the Yankees is gonna be very profitable coming up pretty 758 00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:32,880 Speaker 1: soon because they just reek of that team that you 759 00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:36,080 Speaker 1: just talked about, their way above people's projections. And this 760 00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:38,440 Speaker 1: isn't the San Francisco Giants of last year, right, This 761 00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:40,719 Speaker 1: isn't one of those models where you know they break 762 00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:42,960 Speaker 1: the mold. This is the Yankees. People kind of knew 763 00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:44,880 Speaker 1: what they were gonna be. I disliked the value of 764 00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:47,600 Speaker 1: thinking you're gonna get good bets fading them later on 765 00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:49,879 Speaker 1: in the season. Yeah, I mean their floor was so high, 766 00:36:49,920 --> 00:36:51,680 Speaker 1: and you look at the opposite spectrum, a team like 767 00:36:51,680 --> 00:36:54,239 Speaker 1: the Reds that were trending better. Finally, you've been able 768 00:36:54,280 --> 00:36:55,839 Speaker 1: to get value in the Reds for about a week 769 00:36:55,840 --> 00:36:58,279 Speaker 1: to ten days. The Red Sox fifteen and twenty two, 770 00:36:58,320 --> 00:37:00,759 Speaker 1: they're they projected closer to eight five one team. They 771 00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:03,960 Speaker 1: haven't had injuries. Chris Sale will come back at some point, probably, 772 00:37:04,000 --> 00:37:06,080 Speaker 1: but there's no reason to believe that the Red Sox 773 00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:08,600 Speaker 1: are gonna win their games the rest of the way. 774 00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:11,879 Speaker 1: They should eventually regress play like a team the rest 775 00:37:11,920 --> 00:37:13,600 Speaker 1: of the way. They may finish a five hundred, but 776 00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:15,600 Speaker 1: that's exactly where I put them if I was the 777 00:37:15,680 --> 00:37:19,000 Speaker 1: parade out their win total. Shans are rello. As always, 778 00:37:19,040 --> 00:37:24,200 Speaker 1: you have proven you are more eloquent about baseball than 779 00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:28,120 Speaker 1: just about anybody in the United States of America. Shans 780 00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:32,840 Speaker 1: Arillo the most eloquent baseball analyst in the country. That's 781 00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:36,040 Speaker 1: that's your new moniker. Well, Billy Beans said, it's hard 782 00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:38,160 Speaker 1: not to be romantic about baseball, but it's hard for 783 00:37:38,160 --> 00:37:42,520 Speaker 1: me not to be eloquent about baseball. You're a hundred right. 784 00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:46,320 Speaker 1: It is like such a good game to wax poetic about, 785 00:37:46,760 --> 00:37:50,280 Speaker 1: even when we're talking numbers. You know what you can do, fans, 786 00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:52,960 Speaker 1: If you don't know anything about betting baseball, you can 787 00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:56,040 Speaker 1: follow Shanzillo in the Action Network gap. He tracks every 788 00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:59,359 Speaker 1: one of his bets. He gives explanations on what he's doing. 789 00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:03,240 Speaker 1: You can follow him on Twitter at Shanzarillo on Twitter, 790 00:38:03,280 --> 00:38:07,360 Speaker 1: where he will link to his bets in the Action 791 00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:10,400 Speaker 1: Network app. It's the best way to go. Shan Zarillo, 792 00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:13,600 Speaker 1: you are a true professional. Thank you for coming on 793 00:38:14,040 --> 00:38:19,919 Speaker 1: the Favorites podcast for Matt Mitchell for Simon Hunter. I 794 00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:22,680 Speaker 1: am Chad Melman. Don't Forget. Listen to san Zarillo on 795 00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:26,240 Speaker 1: Payoff Pitch. Listen to him on the Action Network podcast 796 00:38:26,360 --> 00:38:31,160 Speaker 1: UFC Preview every Friday. This has been the favorite podcast 797 00:38:31,160 --> 00:38:33,720 Speaker 1: from the Volume podcast Network. Download us from Apple Podcasts, 798 00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:36,920 Speaker 1: from Spotify, wherever you get your podcast. Rate review, subscribe, 799 00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:39,200 Speaker 1: give us five stars, Say whatever you want feedback as 800 00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:42,319 Speaker 1: a gift until next time. Love you,