1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:07,520 Speaker 1: On this episode of news World, I want to talk 2 00:00:07,560 --> 00:00:12,399 Speaker 1: about strategic thinking in a dangerous world. I think it's 3 00:00:12,520 --> 00:00:17,480 Speaker 1: really important for every American to understand both how dangerous 4 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:21,880 Speaker 1: the world is becoming and to understand how important it 5 00:00:22,000 --> 00:00:26,160 Speaker 1: is to re establish the ability to think and act 6 00:00:26,239 --> 00:00:30,520 Speaker 1: strategically rather than bounce from press conference to press conference 7 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:33,559 Speaker 1: and gimmick to gimmick. So I want to take some 8 00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:35,879 Speaker 1: time to talk about these and I have to confess. 9 00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:40,280 Speaker 1: Part of what triggered this was a newsletter I've written 10 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:43,760 Speaker 1: on the dangers of nuclear war and the fact that 11 00:00:43,800 --> 00:00:48,200 Speaker 1: we have to fundamentally rethink how we approach nuclear war 12 00:00:48,600 --> 00:00:50,879 Speaker 1: and our thinking about it. And I'll come back to that. 13 00:00:51,800 --> 00:00:54,600 Speaker 1: But in addition, I had looked up some things I 14 00:00:54,640 --> 00:01:01,120 Speaker 1: had said about Vladimir Putin and I at how much 15 00:01:01,160 --> 00:01:05,480 Speaker 1: of it was relevant today, even though it was things 16 00:01:05,560 --> 00:01:10,280 Speaker 1: I had said back in twenty thirteen and in twenty fourteen. 17 00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:22,440 Speaker 1: When you look at America's relationship to Putin over the 18 00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:28,080 Speaker 1: last twenty years, we've never come to grips with how 19 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:31,040 Speaker 1: dangerous he is. Let me just share with you an 20 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:34,959 Speaker 1: example of how long I have been talking about understanding 21 00:01:35,040 --> 00:01:39,200 Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin and designing a strategy for him. I want 22 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:42,600 Speaker 1: to share with you something I said on Crossfire back 23 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:46,400 Speaker 1: on September twelfth, twenty thirteen. I just want to take 24 00:01:46,440 --> 00:01:50,120 Speaker 1: a minute personally to talk about this New York Times 25 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:54,000 Speaker 1: op ed piece almost certainly largely written by a Washington 26 00:01:54,760 --> 00:01:58,800 Speaker 1: firm that's hired by the Russians, but supposedly offered by 27 00:01:58,880 --> 00:02:03,240 Speaker 1: President Putin. I'm a little surprised at all the different reaction. 28 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:07,640 Speaker 1: Senators who wanted to vomit, Congressmen who were insulted. Look, 29 00:02:08,040 --> 00:02:13,560 Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin is honestly and authentically a KGB officer. He 30 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:16,760 Speaker 1: grew up in the KGB, he was trained in the KGB. 31 00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:21,840 Speaker 1: He spent his career locking people up, overseeing torture, overseeing killings. 32 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 1: This is a genuinely tough guy, and he has one interest, 33 00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:30,240 Speaker 1: great Russian nationalism, and he's very open about it. Now, 34 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:33,280 Speaker 1: this is the guy who, for public relations purposes, wrestles beyers. 35 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:36,400 Speaker 1: He goes out and shoots tigers stripped to the waist 36 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:39,400 Speaker 1: to prove he's a tough guy. The idea that we 37 00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:43,680 Speaker 1: would take his statements seriously. You could go through and 38 00:02:43,760 --> 00:02:46,840 Speaker 1: read that document and you could find at every single 39 00:02:46,880 --> 00:02:50,680 Speaker 1: stage that it's a lie. This is a guy who clearly, 40 00:02:51,200 --> 00:02:53,960 Speaker 1: for example, invaded Georgia. He didn't go and ask the UN. 41 00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:56,679 Speaker 1: This guy who killed three hundred thousand people in Cheschnown, 42 00:02:56,880 --> 00:03:00,880 Speaker 1: he didn't worry about humanitarian concerns. When he lectures us, 43 00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:03,919 Speaker 1: that's his right, but for us to take it seriously 44 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:07,120 Speaker 1: is a sign we have forgotten who Vladimir Putin is 45 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:08,960 Speaker 1: and why well we have to deal with him as 46 00:03:08,960 --> 00:03:11,800 Speaker 1: the president of Russia. We don't have to respect his views, 47 00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:14,680 Speaker 1: we don't have to respect his opinions, and frankly, we 48 00:03:14,720 --> 00:03:17,360 Speaker 1: should laugh at him when he tries to lecture America 49 00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:20,799 Speaker 1: about exceptionalism, because he ain't exceptional. He's just one more 50 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:24,560 Speaker 1: in a long tradition of dictators and thugs. So that's 51 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:29,040 Speaker 1: my view. So eleven years ago, I was trying to 52 00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:35,120 Speaker 1: explain that there's certain obvious facts, and it's really difficult 53 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:39,040 Speaker 1: because you have two wings of the American system that 54 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:43,120 Speaker 1: don't work for very different reasons. The left wing doesn't 55 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:46,520 Speaker 1: work because it lives in a fantasy land. It thinks 56 00:03:46,520 --> 00:03:48,920 Speaker 1: that you can draw red lines. It thinks that you 57 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 1: can somehow have sanctions but avoid real conflict. It doesn't 58 00:03:54,960 --> 00:03:58,600 Speaker 1: want to deal with how truly brutal and serious and 59 00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:03,000 Speaker 1: dictators can be. That's the left, but the right's equally bad, 60 00:04:03,080 --> 00:04:06,840 Speaker 1: because the right doesn't want to really rethink our bureaucracies, 61 00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:12,080 Speaker 1: to really rethink what we have to do strategically. Instead, 62 00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:15,720 Speaker 1: the right just stumbles forward with a series of actions 63 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:19,120 Speaker 1: that frankly haven't worked very well. And so I wanted 64 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:23,719 Speaker 1: to talk about the concept of strategy and what we 65 00:04:23,920 --> 00:04:28,000 Speaker 1: need to do to get back to thinking strategically now. 66 00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:31,039 Speaker 1: I was shaped in part because my dad served twenty 67 00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:33,760 Speaker 1: six years in the Army, and I had the great 68 00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:39,240 Speaker 1: opportunity to study at places like the seventh Army Headquarters 69 00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:43,800 Speaker 1: with the command librarian who was gathering up material for 70 00:04:43,880 --> 00:04:47,200 Speaker 1: professional soldiers to use. So even in high school, I 71 00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 1: was reading things that were really the key to the profession, 72 00:04:51,720 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 1: things like Alfred Theer Mahanes the influence of Seapower upon history, 73 00:04:55,880 --> 00:04:58,760 Speaker 1: or closewitz Is on war, or Sons Who on the 74 00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:01,680 Speaker 1: art of war. And from all of that background, I 75 00:05:01,720 --> 00:05:05,880 Speaker 1: had a very early belief that there are patterns that work. 76 00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:08,680 Speaker 1: It's a little bit like cooking, you know. The reason 77 00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:11,600 Speaker 1: we have cookbooks is that there are patterns that create, 78 00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:15,160 Speaker 1: say a chocolate cake, and there are other patterns that 79 00:05:15,200 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 1: create beef stroganof and if you learn to follow these patterns, 80 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:22,040 Speaker 1: you too can be a cook. Well. The same thing's 81 00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:24,920 Speaker 1: true of the art of war and thinking about strategy. 82 00:05:25,600 --> 00:05:29,320 Speaker 1: We had been very fortunate in my childhood because we 83 00:05:29,320 --> 00:05:32,719 Speaker 1: were in the shadow of giants. The people who fought 84 00:05:32,760 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 1: World War Two, had been involved in World War One, 85 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:39,720 Speaker 1: had spent twenty years thinking about the coming of a 86 00:05:39,760 --> 00:05:43,839 Speaker 1: great war, and were prepared to think strategically at a 87 00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:47,760 Speaker 1: level that very few Americans ever have. And so when 88 00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:51,240 Speaker 1: we entered World War Two, we really had a remarkably 89 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:55,520 Speaker 1: effective and thoughtful strategy, and we executed it on a 90 00:05:55,560 --> 00:05:59,919 Speaker 1: worldwide basis with enormous capability. When we came out of 91 00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:03,039 Speaker 1: World War Two, we had hoped briefly that we could 92 00:06:03,080 --> 00:06:06,919 Speaker 1: work with the Soviets, that Stalin could be reasonable, But 93 00:06:07,800 --> 00:06:10,240 Speaker 1: the very same people who had led World War Two 94 00:06:11,080 --> 00:06:16,560 Speaker 1: understood reality. They watched what was happening, they watched Stalin's aggressiveness, 95 00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:19,680 Speaker 1: and they concluded that they had to have a strategy, 96 00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:24,240 Speaker 1: not just a series of innovations and press conferences, but 97 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:28,560 Speaker 1: a strategy for coping with the Soviet Union. And so 98 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:33,760 Speaker 1: they turned to Paul Nitsi, who had been an international banker, 99 00:06:34,160 --> 00:06:36,400 Speaker 1: who had worked in World War Two and really had 100 00:06:36,640 --> 00:06:38,600 Speaker 1: been one of the key players in the architect of 101 00:06:38,640 --> 00:06:42,279 Speaker 1: the American economy during the war. And Nitzy was assigned 102 00:06:42,279 --> 00:06:45,479 Speaker 1: as the head of the State Department's planning operation to 103 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:50,279 Speaker 1: go around and talk to everybody and design a genuine strategy. 104 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:52,720 Speaker 1: He wrote a paper which has been published and which 105 00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:55,920 Speaker 1: has been studied as a great book by Ernest May, 106 00:06:55,960 --> 00:07:00,520 Speaker 1: a Harvard professor on NSC sixty eight National Security Council 107 00:07:00,640 --> 00:07:06,479 Speaker 1: sixty eighth, issued on April fifteenth, nineteen fifty. It's worth 108 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:11,000 Speaker 1: reading because it really captured where we were. It says, look, 109 00:07:11,600 --> 00:07:14,000 Speaker 1: here is the nature of the Soviet Union. It is 110 00:07:14,040 --> 00:07:18,720 Speaker 1: an aggressive imperialist empire. It genuinely wants the entire world 111 00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:21,560 Speaker 1: to become communist. It is a mortal threat to the 112 00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:25,880 Speaker 1: survival of the United States. And in order to contain it, 113 00:07:27,600 --> 00:07:29,320 Speaker 1: here are the things we're going to have to do. 114 00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:33,720 Speaker 1: And it lays out essentially what we did from nineteen 115 00:07:33,880 --> 00:07:38,200 Speaker 1: fifty to nineteen ninety one when the Soviet emperor collapsed. 116 00:07:38,280 --> 00:07:44,240 Speaker 1: Think about that forty years a democracy sustained a general strategy, 117 00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:47,880 Speaker 1: and it ortoantly worked now to show you the power 118 00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:51,160 Speaker 1: of strategy. As Nitzi worked his way through all this. 119 00:07:52,440 --> 00:07:55,600 Speaker 1: They did it because, in the words of Secretary of 120 00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:58,680 Speaker 1: State Dean Achison at the time, when Truman made the 121 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:02,960 Speaker 1: decision at Christmas nighteen forty nine, that we had to 122 00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:07,080 Speaker 1: build a hydrogen warhead, a bomb whose only purpose was 123 00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:10,560 Speaker 1: wiping out an entire city, he went to President Truman 124 00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:12,880 Speaker 1: and said, you know, if the world is that dangerous, 125 00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:16,880 Speaker 1: shouldn't we try to develop a strategy to avoid using 126 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:20,440 Speaker 1: these weapons? And Truman said, I think that's probably right. 127 00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:23,880 Speaker 1: And so that's what Nittsi was trying to do. Can 128 00:08:23,920 --> 00:08:28,040 Speaker 1: we design a strategy of containment that will avoid a 129 00:08:28,160 --> 00:08:31,640 Speaker 1: nuclear war and also will avoid our being defeated by 130 00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 1: the Soviet Union. When he developed it, he had carefully 131 00:08:36,360 --> 00:08:38,320 Speaker 1: gone to all of the chairman of the Joint chiefs. 132 00:08:38,760 --> 00:08:42,600 Speaker 1: These were men who were four star officers Army and 133 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:47,200 Speaker 1: Navy and Air Force in World War Two. They really 134 00:08:47,360 --> 00:08:52,080 Speaker 1: understood large conflict and they said to him, you know, 135 00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:55,480 Speaker 1: we think it's going to take at least forty billion 136 00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:58,920 Speaker 1: dollars a year in order to be able to defend 137 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:03,320 Speaker 1: America World Wari and the current Secretary of fans want 138 00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:06,760 Speaker 1: to only give them fourteen billion. In their minds, they 139 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:08,960 Speaker 1: were something like twenty six billion short, but they were 140 00:09:08,960 --> 00:09:10,480 Speaker 1: going to get less than half of what they thought 141 00:09:10,520 --> 00:09:15,680 Speaker 1: they needed. Atchison said very wisely to Nittsi, do not 142 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:19,400 Speaker 1: put a number in your plan, because if you do, 143 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:21,959 Speaker 1: nobody will read the plan. They'll focus only on the number. 144 00:09:21,960 --> 00:09:24,000 Speaker 1: There'll be a big fight over the number. And we 145 00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:28,040 Speaker 1: want them first to understand the concept of what we're doing, 146 00:09:29,120 --> 00:09:32,679 Speaker 1: and then to come back and decide how much will 147 00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:35,000 Speaker 1: it cost to do this, If this is the right strategy, 148 00:09:35,920 --> 00:09:39,080 Speaker 1: what will it take. What's one of the great ironies 149 00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:45,439 Speaker 1: of history that Truman released a strategy on April fifteenth. 150 00:09:45,720 --> 00:09:47,520 Speaker 1: We really don't know what it would have led to. 151 00:09:48,480 --> 00:09:52,640 Speaker 1: But on June twenty fifth, nineteen fifty, the North Koreans 152 00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:57,480 Speaker 1: invaded South Korea, and suddenly we realized that we were 153 00:09:57,559 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 1: right at the crisis of the system, that they were 154 00:10:00,840 --> 00:10:03,640 Speaker 1: testing us, and that they wanted to find out whether 155 00:10:03,720 --> 00:10:05,719 Speaker 1: or not we would defend South Korea. They didn't think 156 00:10:05,760 --> 00:10:08,160 Speaker 1: we would, and they thought would be an easy victory. 157 00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:11,400 Speaker 1: Truman decided we had to stop them then and there. 158 00:10:11,880 --> 00:10:14,680 Speaker 1: The great lesson of the nineteen thirties and the failure 159 00:10:14,720 --> 00:10:17,439 Speaker 1: to stand up Dadolf Hitler had led to a dramatically 160 00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:20,560 Speaker 1: bigger war. And therefore, if this was the time to 161 00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:23,480 Speaker 1: teach Stalin that we were serious, Harry Truman was going 162 00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:27,280 Speaker 1: to do it. The amazing thing was, remember I said, 163 00:10:27,679 --> 00:10:32,760 Speaker 1: the Secuary Defense wanted fourteen billion, the Joint Chiefs wanted 164 00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:36,600 Speaker 1: forty billion, and in the very first year, under the 165 00:10:36,640 --> 00:10:41,439 Speaker 1: pressure of the Korean War, they got sixty five billion dollars. 166 00:10:42,520 --> 00:10:45,280 Speaker 1: Now here's what makes it amazing, And here's an example 167 00:10:45,320 --> 00:10:51,040 Speaker 1: of strategy. Nitzi had concluded that the central front in 168 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:55,400 Speaker 1: the survival of the West was Germany, that if the 169 00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:58,960 Speaker 1: Soviets could capture Germany, that they would in fact have 170 00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:02,560 Speaker 1: such economic opportunities that we would have a very hard 171 00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:07,200 Speaker 1: time surviving. And so we had established the North Atlantic 172 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:11,000 Speaker 1: Treaty Organization, and General Eisenhower had come out of retirement 173 00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:13,920 Speaker 1: where he'd been president of Columbia University, and he went 174 00:11:13,960 --> 00:11:16,760 Speaker 1: to Europe and began to pool together his old friends 175 00:11:16,800 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 1: who had been part of the Coalition of World War two, 176 00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:23,240 Speaker 1: and they were building a defense against the Soviets. Well, 177 00:11:23,760 --> 00:11:27,640 Speaker 1: when Korea started two out of every three dollars at 178 00:11:27,679 --> 00:11:32,080 Speaker 1: the increase went to Europe, not to Korea. Now that's 179 00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:36,040 Speaker 1: the power of strategy, because we had understood it is 180 00:11:36,080 --> 00:11:40,200 Speaker 1: all intellectual. What is it we're trying to do. We're 181 00:11:40,200 --> 00:11:43,280 Speaker 1: trying to contain the Civil Union. Where's the greatest threat. 182 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:48,359 Speaker 1: It's in Europe, not Korea. Therefore, let's pile on resources 183 00:11:48,400 --> 00:11:50,560 Speaker 1: in Europe and let's block them. And by the way, 184 00:11:51,280 --> 00:11:54,080 Speaker 1: it worked from that point on. Remember we've been through 185 00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:57,760 Speaker 1: now over seventy years in which NATO has survived and 186 00:11:57,800 --> 00:12:00,640 Speaker 1: in which Europe has been largely at peace for the 187 00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:05,040 Speaker 1: longest period in its history. Meanwhile, we put enough resources 188 00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:08,680 Speaker 1: into Korea to autumnally defeat the North Koreans. The Chinese 189 00:12:08,760 --> 00:12:11,320 Speaker 1: came in and we put enough resources in to fight 190 00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:15,000 Speaker 1: them to a tie. But we were not prepared to 191 00:12:15,080 --> 00:12:18,400 Speaker 1: go into a major war with China because that wasn't 192 00:12:18,440 --> 00:12:21,600 Speaker 1: strategically what we're trying to do. And I want to 193 00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:25,320 Speaker 1: come back to this concept of strategy. We have not 194 00:12:25,559 --> 00:12:29,920 Speaker 1: had since the fallless of the Union in nineteen ninety one, 195 00:12:30,280 --> 00:12:34,160 Speaker 1: a coherent strategy for the United States and the world. 196 00:12:51,720 --> 00:12:53,880 Speaker 1: On the one front, we have been involved in a 197 00:12:53,960 --> 00:12:59,479 Speaker 1: series of wars at the periphery, if you will, in Vietnam, 198 00:13:00,000 --> 00:13:05,400 Speaker 1: in Afghanistan, in Iraq, and we have no strategic doctrine 199 00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:08,280 Speaker 1: for winning those wars. And if you think about it, 200 00:13:08,960 --> 00:13:12,640 Speaker 1: we fought in Vietnam and lost over fifty five thousand 201 00:13:12,679 --> 00:13:17,000 Speaker 1: men and women, and we learned almost nothing. We came 202 00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:23,520 Speaker 1: back and spent literally twenty years in Afghanistan and learned 203 00:13:23,600 --> 00:13:27,640 Speaker 1: almost nothing. We went into Iraq and we were very 204 00:13:27,679 --> 00:13:31,520 Speaker 1: confused about our strategic goal. One side wanted to go 205 00:13:31,679 --> 00:13:36,160 Speaker 1: in with a very small military, defeat Saddam and pull out. 206 00:13:37,360 --> 00:13:39,960 Speaker 1: The other side said, if you're going to stay and 207 00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:43,240 Speaker 1: try to occupy the country, you need two or three 208 00:13:43,240 --> 00:13:47,640 Speaker 1: times bigger force. Well, we ended up doing the worst 209 00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:51,000 Speaker 1: of all worlds. We sent it a small force, decisively 210 00:13:51,040 --> 00:13:55,720 Speaker 1: defeated Saddam, and then decided to switch to an occupation 211 00:13:55,880 --> 00:14:01,120 Speaker 1: strategy without the forces necessary to succeed. And so Iraq 212 00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:04,000 Speaker 1: has remained a mess ever since, and may in the 213 00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:07,000 Speaker 1: near future ask us to leave. Because the truth is, 214 00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:10,160 Speaker 1: over the last ten years, the Iranians have grown stronger 215 00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:12,720 Speaker 1: and we have grown weaker. And if you're the Iraqis 216 00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:15,280 Speaker 1: in your next door neighbor of the Iranians. Maybe you're 217 00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:17,520 Speaker 1: more afraid of Iran than you are of the United States. 218 00:14:18,880 --> 00:14:23,600 Speaker 1: So now you come to the other great strategic problems Iran, 219 00:14:24,640 --> 00:14:30,120 Speaker 1: Russia and the terrorist organizations, whether they're Hamas against Israel 220 00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:33,560 Speaker 1: or the groups like Al Kaheda and groups that want 221 00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:37,160 Speaker 1: to destroy the United States in the West. You cannot 222 00:14:37,240 --> 00:14:44,040 Speaker 1: find today a strategic explanation of what we're trying to accomplish. 223 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:46,760 Speaker 1: I would argue there's been a war going on in 224 00:14:46,880 --> 00:14:51,440 Speaker 1: Ukraine at least since the occupation of Crimea and the 225 00:14:51,480 --> 00:14:54,440 Speaker 1: occupation of some of the eastern parts of Ukraine, the 226 00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:57,680 Speaker 1: most heavily Russian parts of Ukraine, and that war has 227 00:14:57,680 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 1: now been going on for a decade, much hotter when 228 00:15:02,600 --> 00:15:06,160 Speaker 1: Putin decided that he would invade then go to Kiev. 229 00:15:06,840 --> 00:15:10,800 Speaker 1: But the war has been going on. The graduation exercise 230 00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:14,160 Speaker 1: of the Russian Artillery school was to go on fire 231 00:15:14,520 --> 00:15:17,480 Speaker 1: rounds into Ukraine, and this has been going on for 232 00:15:17,520 --> 00:15:23,400 Speaker 1: a decade. So Putin hasn't changed. He is the same brutal, 233 00:15:23,680 --> 00:15:29,840 Speaker 1: methodical thug trained by the KGB, passionately deeply believing in 234 00:15:29,960 --> 00:15:33,840 Speaker 1: Russian greatness. Has said publicly that the greatest disaster of 235 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:36,960 Speaker 1: the twentieth century was the collapse of the Soviet Union, 236 00:15:37,440 --> 00:15:41,160 Speaker 1: and that his mission is to recreate the Soviet Empire. 237 00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:47,080 Speaker 1: Now that resonated with me, because in nineteen ninety three 238 00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:51,280 Speaker 1: I was on a congressional delegation to Moscow. I ended 239 00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:54,560 Speaker 1: up meeting with the then Vice president under Boris Elsen 240 00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:58,160 Speaker 1: of the Russian Federation. And the vice president was an 241 00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:01,560 Speaker 1: Air Force three star general, and we were meeting in 242 00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:06,560 Speaker 1: this huge room and one entire wall was a map 243 00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:11,200 Speaker 1: of the original Soviet Union, And being fairly naive, I 244 00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:16,000 Speaker 1: said to him, gosh, that's a map of the Soviet Union. Now, 245 00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:18,920 Speaker 1: remember this is two years after the collapse of the 246 00:16:18,960 --> 00:16:22,520 Speaker 1: Soviet Union. All sorts of countries have declared their independence 247 00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:27,520 Speaker 1: and they're now down to basically the Russian Federation. He 248 00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:30,440 Speaker 1: looked at me, without blinking an eye and said, yes, 249 00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:35,360 Speaker 1: it will be that way again. Now what does that mean. 250 00:16:36,120 --> 00:16:39,560 Speaker 1: It means you have to take back Kazakhstan, you have 251 00:16:39,640 --> 00:16:43,720 Speaker 1: to take back Ukraine, you have to take back Mielarus, 252 00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:48,400 Speaker 1: you have to take back Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania. And he 253 00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:53,760 Speaker 1: was calmly, pleasantly dead serious. Well, we have had no 254 00:16:54,240 --> 00:17:00,600 Speaker 1: coherent strategy for dealing with a Russian leadership which is 255 00:17:00,800 --> 00:17:07,560 Speaker 1: dedicated to using force, proves routinely that it will kill 256 00:17:07,760 --> 00:17:12,840 Speaker 1: its political opponents. The recent killing of Putin's major opponent 257 00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:16,159 Speaker 1: is only one of a long history. They have been 258 00:17:16,240 --> 00:17:20,679 Speaker 1: killing people, including in London, for a very long period 259 00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:23,560 Speaker 1: of time, and I suspect you're going to see them 260 00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:26,960 Speaker 1: continue to do this. And the reason simple, there's no 261 00:17:27,040 --> 00:17:31,679 Speaker 1: consequence to them. Now we can talk about sanctions. And 262 00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:37,480 Speaker 1: when Crimea was invaded, Obama, in a classic left wing approach, 263 00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:41,080 Speaker 1: wanted to use sanctions. And I said at the time, 264 00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:43,600 Speaker 1: telling the Russian leadership that they're not going to be 265 00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:46,680 Speaker 1: able to go to Disney World is not exactly going 266 00:17:46,720 --> 00:17:49,960 Speaker 1: to stop them. And so you have to say to yourself, 267 00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:54,000 Speaker 1: what is a strategy that would stop them? And notice, 268 00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:57,760 Speaker 1: we're now in a much more complicated world than we 269 00:17:57,760 --> 00:18:01,280 Speaker 1: were prior to nineteen ninety one. During the Cold War. 270 00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:04,879 Speaker 1: If we could truly focus on the Soviets, and we 271 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:09,840 Speaker 1: could truly contain the Soviets, almost everything else relatively fell 272 00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:13,080 Speaker 1: into place. There were marginal changes, you know, we lost 273 00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:18,119 Speaker 1: in many ways, Nicaragua, we lost Cuba, but overall the 274 00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:22,040 Speaker 1: system was relatively stable and most countries having to choose 275 00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:26,960 Speaker 1: between a vicious Soviet dictatorship and the free markets and 276 00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:30,280 Speaker 1: the openness of the West. Tended to decide with us 277 00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:32,719 Speaker 1: and tended to be glad that we were around because 278 00:18:32,760 --> 00:18:36,000 Speaker 1: we were less dangerous and less brutal than the Russians. 279 00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:39,520 Speaker 1: We're in a different world now, then we have literally 280 00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:42,800 Speaker 1: not adjusted to it, and the best of my knowledge, 281 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:47,400 Speaker 1: there is no current strategic effort to really back out 282 00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:49,320 Speaker 1: and say, okay, if we're going to be in a 283 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:52,680 Speaker 1: multi polar world where China is a pretty big country, 284 00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:57,000 Speaker 1: India is passing China in population this year and is 285 00:18:57,040 --> 00:19:01,320 Speaker 1: a big country. Indonesia is a remark probably large country. Actually, 286 00:19:01,320 --> 00:19:03,760 Speaker 1: the largest Muslim country in the world is not in 287 00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:09,040 Speaker 1: the Arab world, it's Indonesia. The fact is Russia remains dangerous. 288 00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:12,560 Speaker 1: Pakistan and India both have nuclear weapons. North Korea has 289 00:19:12,640 --> 00:19:16,680 Speaker 1: nuclear weapons, the Iranians, for all practical purposes, have nuclear weapons. 290 00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:22,240 Speaker 1: The Israelis have nuclear weapons. We have no grand strategy 291 00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:27,119 Speaker 1: that says here's what America wants to accomplish, here's what 292 00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:30,640 Speaker 1: we're capable of doing, and therefore, here's how we're going 293 00:19:30,640 --> 00:19:34,160 Speaker 1: to allocate our resources, and how we're going to organize things, 294 00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:39,200 Speaker 1: and I think this is an enormous challenge. First of all, 295 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:42,840 Speaker 1: if you really measure the world accurately, you would rapidly 296 00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:45,680 Speaker 1: conclude that you have to have a dramatic overhaul of 297 00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:49,159 Speaker 1: our school system because we literally are not producing people 298 00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:53,119 Speaker 1: capable of working in the modern world, and we're going 299 00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:56,760 Speaker 1: to find it very, very hard to compete with other 300 00:19:56,800 --> 00:19:59,520 Speaker 1: countries if we end up with a workforce that literally 301 00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:03,680 Speaker 1: cannot do what needs to be done in the modern world. Second, 302 00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:08,320 Speaker 1: we're faced with extraordinary technological changes, and I think it 303 00:20:08,359 --> 00:20:11,520 Speaker 1: has been a great surprise to the American military how 304 00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:16,840 Speaker 1: much electronic information flow is changing everything. And they've discovered, 305 00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:18,639 Speaker 1: for example, that if you have a cell phone and 306 00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:22,600 Speaker 1: it's turned on, that you're now emitting and the other 307 00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:24,719 Speaker 1: team can figure out where you are and they can 308 00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:27,919 Speaker 1: track you in real time. And so a lot of 309 00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:30,800 Speaker 1: things are having to change just to survive in this 310 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:36,600 Speaker 1: increasingly electronic world. We also recognize that there are breakthroughs 311 00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:41,760 Speaker 1: coming in science and technology. Our pentagon today is so bureaucratic, 312 00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:45,560 Speaker 1: and it's so slow, and it's so cumbersome. It's very 313 00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:48,280 Speaker 1: very hard for it to adjust to the rate of 314 00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:51,760 Speaker 1: change and it's impossible for it today to have contracts 315 00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:55,720 Speaker 1: issued in an entrepreneurial, small business way to be at 316 00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:58,360 Speaker 1: the cutting edge. And this is going to accelerate as 317 00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:01,800 Speaker 1: we go through artificial intelligence. It's an artificial general intelligence 318 00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 1: and other kinds of breakthroughs, because we literally will not 319 00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:09,920 Speaker 1: be able to purchase and think through and use new 320 00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:13,960 Speaker 1: technologies within the cycle of the technology. By the time 321 00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:16,840 Speaker 1: our bureaucracy will have figured out, it will already be 322 00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:19,800 Speaker 1: obsolete and there'll be new technologies following it that we 323 00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:23,240 Speaker 1: once the en'lb behind the curve. This is a particular 324 00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:26,560 Speaker 1: challenge in dealing with the Chinese, but it's also proving 325 00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:30,560 Speaker 1: to be a challenge because of the world market. Technologies 326 00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:34,760 Speaker 1: can be created anywhere, and if you'll notice the Russians 327 00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:38,439 Speaker 1: are now using Iranian aircraft, you know they don't just 328 00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:41,480 Speaker 1: have to build them in Russia. If you really want 329 00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:45,320 Speaker 1: to have a series of weapons, you can actually buy 330 00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:49,440 Speaker 1: for about twenty five hundred dollars a cardboard drone from 331 00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:53,960 Speaker 1: Australia that they mass produce. It doesn't go very far 332 00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:57,480 Speaker 1: and it carries a very small weapon, but for twenty 333 00:21:57,480 --> 00:22:01,800 Speaker 1: five hundred bucks compared to what Americans spend for huge, expensive, 334 00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:06,199 Speaker 1: complicated systems, it's not a bad buy. The Uranians are 335 00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:10,080 Speaker 1: probably the largest makers today of drones, and they sell 336 00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:13,800 Speaker 1: thousands of them to the Russians. The Ukrainians themselves are 337 00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:18,320 Speaker 1: making drones. When you comin drones with GPS so that 338 00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:21,800 Speaker 1: you can actually target very precisely where things are, and 339 00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:24,840 Speaker 1: if you look at the impact. For example, Elon must 340 00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:28,520 Speaker 1: startlingk system which he has allowed the Ukrainians to use, 341 00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:32,800 Speaker 1: giving the Ukrainians what would be almost impossible for them 342 00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:35,760 Speaker 1: to have built themselves, and yet gives them a kind 343 00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:39,639 Speaker 1: of targeting and communications capability that allows them to operate 344 00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:43,640 Speaker 1: against the Russians with remarkable capabilities. All of these things 345 00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:48,960 Speaker 1: are a reminder that the world is changing very, very rapidly, 346 00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:52,120 Speaker 1: and we are not prepared to deal with that now. 347 00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:55,720 Speaker 1: We shouldn't be totally shocked. The Pentagon is a huge 348 00:22:55,960 --> 00:23:00,240 Speaker 1: giant bureaucracy, and it is the nature of bureaucracies to 349 00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:04,520 Speaker 1: change the facts about reality rather than to change the bureaucracy. 350 00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:08,560 Speaker 1: One of my favorite stories from a book by Colonel 351 00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:13,720 Speaker 1: Johnson called Heavy Bombers and Fast Tanks, as a chapter 352 00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:16,399 Speaker 1: in which the then Chief of Staff of the Army. 353 00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:20,560 Speaker 1: George Marshall calls in the Head of the Cavalry and says, 354 00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:23,560 Speaker 1: to the head of the Cavalry, you know you've now 355 00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:28,400 Speaker 1: seen the Germans used tanks in blitzkrieg's in Poland and 356 00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:32,280 Speaker 1: in blitzkrieg's in France, and I'm very curious what does 357 00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:35,920 Speaker 1: the cavalry think the correct response is to the rise 358 00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:39,840 Speaker 1: of this tank truck relationship and the speed with which 359 00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:42,840 Speaker 1: they move and the combat power that they have. The 360 00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:46,879 Speaker 1: Head of Cavalry says, oh, we've been studying this very carefully. 361 00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:50,440 Speaker 1: We're very aware of it. In fact, we have concluded 362 00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:54,960 Speaker 1: that what we need to do is get trucks that 363 00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:57,960 Speaker 1: can carry the horses so that we can bring the 364 00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:01,199 Speaker 1: horses closer to the fordage of battle so they are 365 00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:06,320 Speaker 1: arrested when they're thrown into combat. And Marshall looked at 366 00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:10,600 Speaker 1: him with a sense of total disbelief and said, this 367 00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:15,640 Speaker 1: has been really, really helpful. The guy left. Marshall called 368 00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:20,240 Speaker 1: in his then secretary Beatlesmith and said, I want you 369 00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:25,000 Speaker 1: to retire him as of five o'clock today and to 370 00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:29,080 Speaker 1: abolish the post of Commandant of Cavalry because it is 371 00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:32,800 Speaker 1: clearly not a touch with reality. Now, that's natural in 372 00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:36,760 Speaker 1: a bureaucracy. The British had concluded that they had to 373 00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:40,960 Speaker 1: defend Singapore against seaborn invasions, and so they built a 374 00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:45,600 Speaker 1: remarkable fortress capable of fighting off a fleet. What they 375 00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:49,120 Speaker 1: hadn't thought about was what if instead of coming by sea, 376 00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:54,080 Speaker 1: people landed in northern Malaya came down through the jungle 377 00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:57,480 Speaker 1: and came to the back of the fortress. And it 378 00:24:57,520 --> 00:25:00,879 Speaker 1: turned out that the fresh water supply was outside of 379 00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:04,399 Speaker 1: the fort and so you literally couldn't survive very long 380 00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:08,680 Speaker 1: if somebody captured the back of the Singapore and occupied 381 00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:12,120 Speaker 1: the water supply. And so Churchill, who did not understand 382 00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:16,000 Speaker 1: all this, sent an additional division of troops to defend 383 00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:19,280 Speaker 1: Singapore at the very moment they were about to collapse, 384 00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:22,000 Speaker 1: and they all had discern it's the largest single surrender 385 00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:25,960 Speaker 1: in British military history, and it's because nobody had any 386 00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:48,399 Speaker 1: sense of imagination. Similarly, as bureaucracies work, we had before 387 00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:50,760 Speaker 1: World War Two a joint planning Board for the Army 388 00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:54,160 Speaker 1: in the Navy, and the Joint Planning Board was designed 389 00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:58,480 Speaker 1: to coordinate the wartime plans of the two services. Well, 390 00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:01,800 Speaker 1: because they're bedcracies, and they don't want to pick fights, 391 00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:05,520 Speaker 1: and they try to make everyone feel good. It turned out, 392 00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:08,600 Speaker 1: when Pearl Harbor happened and the Japanese bombed our fleet 393 00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:11,000 Speaker 1: and we knew that the Philippines were going to be 394 00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:15,000 Speaker 1: in trouble, they looked at the two plans. The Army 395 00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:17,919 Speaker 1: had a very clear plan for defending the Philippines. They 396 00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:21,760 Speaker 1: could hold out for three months until the Navy arrived. 397 00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:25,919 Speaker 1: The Navy had a very clear plan, which was they 398 00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:31,160 Speaker 1: could arrive in three years. No one had ever forced 399 00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:36,280 Speaker 1: a meeting to say, guys, this pretty big mismatch here 400 00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:40,680 Speaker 1: between three months and three years. And of course, our 401 00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:44,000 Speaker 1: troops surrendered in the Philippines in the spring of nineteen 402 00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:47,240 Speaker 1: forty two. Even without Pearl Harbor, the Navy probably couldn't 403 00:26:47,280 --> 00:26:49,800 Speaker 1: have gotten there because of the dangers of dealing with 404 00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:53,159 Speaker 1: the Japanese fleet. But certainly after Pearl Harbor and the 405 00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:57,120 Speaker 1: American battleships were sunk and damaged, they had no possibility 406 00:26:57,560 --> 00:27:00,359 Speaker 1: of getting to there, which led to one of the 407 00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:03,880 Speaker 1: great strategic decisions of World War two, a decision which 408 00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:07,879 Speaker 1: was recommended by then Brigadier General Eisenhower, who had served 409 00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:11,560 Speaker 1: in the Philippines. Knew many of the people personally had 410 00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:14,919 Speaker 1: been a senior aide to Douglas MacArthur, who was in 411 00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:18,399 Speaker 1: charge of the American military and the Philippines. He was 412 00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:22,240 Speaker 1: brought to Washington and George Marshall said, go and figure 413 00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:26,639 Speaker 1: out how we can help the Philippines. Now he was 414 00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:29,159 Speaker 1: dealing with his personal friends. He knew how desperate this was. 415 00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:32,800 Speaker 1: And he spent about two weeks and he came back 416 00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:36,399 Speaker 1: and he said, we can't. Then Marshall said, what do 417 00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:38,639 Speaker 1: you mean. He said, we can get modest amounts of 418 00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:41,959 Speaker 1: ammunition there. The truth is, we don't have the ships, 419 00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:44,639 Speaker 1: we don't have control of the sea. We're going to 420 00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:48,600 Speaker 1: lose the Philippines. So we had better design a strategy 421 00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:53,080 Speaker 1: that accepts that reality. And Eisner then wrote a memo 422 00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:55,760 Speaker 1: which I've always thought was one of the most amazing 423 00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:59,280 Speaker 1: documents of World War Two, and he said, even with 424 00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:03,399 Speaker 1: all of our sources, even as wealthy as we are, 425 00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:10,480 Speaker 1: we have to distinguish between the necessary and the desirable, 426 00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:14,800 Speaker 1: and we have to do only the necessary. We cannot 427 00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:19,159 Speaker 1: afford the desirable or will be stretched too thin. Well, 428 00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:25,239 Speaker 1: that raises the question, then, in a dangerous world with 429 00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:30,520 Speaker 1: artificial intelligence, with cyber warfare, with potentially warfare in space, 430 00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:35,560 Speaker 1: with a whole range of potential opponents, from Venezuela to 431 00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:40,000 Speaker 1: Cuba and Nicaragua to Iran, to Russia to North Korea 432 00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:45,320 Speaker 1: to China. What is necessary and what's merely desirable? And 433 00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:48,120 Speaker 1: if you really applied that to the entire American system, 434 00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:51,440 Speaker 1: not just the military, you would find that we have 435 00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:57,760 Speaker 1: a whole range of things that are necessary strategically. Probably 436 00:28:57,760 --> 00:29:02,000 Speaker 1: the most necessary is intellectual honesty. Be honest about who 437 00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:05,520 Speaker 1: Putin is and what it will take to either defeat 438 00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:09,479 Speaker 1: him or to make the cost of taking us on 439 00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:13,480 Speaker 1: so great that he decides that he'll back down, or 440 00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:16,960 Speaker 1: to find a way to have some negotiated agreement and 441 00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:19,920 Speaker 1: be honest about it. If we want to defeat him, 442 00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:23,800 Speaker 1: we probably can, but it does risk nuclear war, and 443 00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:27,200 Speaker 1: it does require us to completely change the way we've 444 00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:31,120 Speaker 1: been doing this. You can replay the last two years 445 00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:35,080 Speaker 1: as though you understood what had happened, and you would 446 00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:38,040 Speaker 1: realize immediately the first thing that should have happened is 447 00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:42,160 Speaker 1: a massive flow of sophisticated weapons to give the Ukrainians 448 00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:45,440 Speaker 1: such a huge advantage on the battlefield that it would 449 00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:49,200 Speaker 1: havepset any problems of numbers that they have give the 450 00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:52,280 Speaker 1: same challenge in looking about strategy in terms of dealing 451 00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:58,920 Speaker 1: with Hamas. The Israelis finally concluded, after the enormous painful 452 00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:05,560 Speaker 1: of October seventh, that they had to destroy Hamas, not 453 00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:10,760 Speaker 1: bruise it, not wound it, destroy it. And they're engaged 454 00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:13,680 Speaker 1: in a campaign which nobody apparently in the West thought about. 455 00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:16,920 Speaker 1: When Biden, for example, said We're going to be with 456 00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:20,520 Speaker 1: the Israelis through this whole thing, nobody said to him. 457 00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:24,680 Speaker 1: You know, to destroy Hamas, you have to go into 458 00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:28,400 Speaker 1: all of Gaza, you have to be fighting in urban 459 00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:32,440 Speaker 1: warfare where civilians inevitably are part of the problem. You 460 00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:34,640 Speaker 1: have to be prepared to go all the way down 461 00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:38,160 Speaker 1: to the Egyptian border. And of course, when people began 462 00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:40,040 Speaker 1: to realize that that's what it was going to take, 463 00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:45,040 Speaker 1: suddenly began to say, well, maybe we can't destroy Hamas. Well, 464 00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:48,920 Speaker 1: that's fine if you can't destroy Hamas. And remember, as 465 00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:51,720 Speaker 1: of the time I'm talking to you, the Hamas leaders 466 00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:56,720 Speaker 1: are very clear they will not accept any agreement which 467 00:30:56,760 --> 00:31:00,680 Speaker 1: allows Israel to survive. They really they do want to 468 00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:04,240 Speaker 1: eliminate every Jew, and they really want to take over 469 00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:09,040 Speaker 1: the whole region, and they don't mind dying. They don't 470 00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:11,920 Speaker 1: mind the fact that they have tremendous casualties, and they 471 00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:16,760 Speaker 1: certainly don't mind civilians dying. They just become martyrs. So 472 00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:20,840 Speaker 1: if you don't destroy Hamas, it will rebuild, it will regain, 473 00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:24,640 Speaker 1: and five, ten, fifteen years from now, there will be 474 00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:27,640 Speaker 1: another attack that's even more horrendous. And they say this publicly. 475 00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:32,480 Speaker 1: We've had leaders of Hamas saying it on television. So 476 00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:36,840 Speaker 1: what's the strategy for dealing with terrorists who are genuine, 477 00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:40,959 Speaker 1: legitimate fanatics. And you have to respect the fact of 478 00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:45,480 Speaker 1: your opponent. They really believe what they're saying. I always 479 00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:48,120 Speaker 1: ask audiences, you know, what do you think when the 480 00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:54,080 Speaker 1: legislature in Tehran chance death to Israel, death to America? 481 00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:58,760 Speaker 1: What do you think the Iranian theocratic dictatorship might mean 482 00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:03,520 Speaker 1: by the frame is death to Israel, death to America. Well, 483 00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:07,360 Speaker 1: about two months ago, the ayatotly Hamani, the leader of 484 00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:10,640 Speaker 1: the entire country, went on national television and said, I 485 00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:13,960 Speaker 1: just want to reassure you death to America is not 486 00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:18,800 Speaker 1: a slogan, it's a policy. But you know, we've had 487 00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:25,280 Speaker 1: no strategic debate about what do you do if you're 488 00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:28,760 Speaker 1: faced with an opponent who sincerely wants to destroy you. 489 00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:32,440 Speaker 1: And as you know, the response of both Obama and 490 00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:35,479 Speaker 1: Biden has been to appease them, to give them money, 491 00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:38,560 Speaker 1: try to be nice to them. And they think where 492 00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:42,160 Speaker 1: it is they're sitting there side themselves when Lennon said, 493 00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:44,200 Speaker 1: the capitalists will sell you the rope to hang them, 494 00:32:45,120 --> 00:32:47,880 Speaker 1: these guys are perfectly happy to take the money. They 495 00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:50,640 Speaker 1: use it to finance their nuclear program, they use it 496 00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:53,840 Speaker 1: to finance their missiles, they use it to finance terrorism, 497 00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:57,760 Speaker 1: and they're thrilled at the Americans are the stupid. But 498 00:32:57,840 --> 00:33:00,920 Speaker 1: we've had no serious strategic debate. And there's a practical 499 00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:05,120 Speaker 1: reason when you are in a period of grave difficulty. 500 00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:07,160 Speaker 1: And this is what happened to the democracies in the 501 00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:12,720 Speaker 1: nineteen thirties. People like Chamberlain weren't cowards. The Prime Minister 502 00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:16,640 Speaker 1: of Great Britain had lived through World War One, he'd 503 00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:21,880 Speaker 1: seen a generation of young Britain's killed. He really wanted 504 00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:26,120 Speaker 1: to avoid having that happen, and he really did everything 505 00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:30,440 Speaker 1: he could to find a path that would enable Germany 506 00:33:30,520 --> 00:33:38,200 Speaker 1: to be satisfied without having several million Britains die and 507 00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:41,960 Speaker 1: he was sincere. And his problem with Churchill kept trying 508 00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:44,840 Speaker 1: to tell him was you were up against the leader 509 00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:48,880 Speaker 1: who you will have to defeat because every time you 510 00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:53,080 Speaker 1: appease him, he grows stronger. As Churchill once said, if 511 00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:56,320 Speaker 1: you feed the crocodile, eventually the crocodile gets bigger, and 512 00:33:56,360 --> 00:34:00,280 Speaker 1: then one day you're the last meal that's left. That's, 513 00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:03,800 Speaker 1: in a sense what happened. Well, every one of the 514 00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:10,400 Speaker 1: challenges we face now requires really dramatic change. Getting our 515 00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:15,239 Speaker 1: education system to work correctly will take dramatic change. Rebuilding 516 00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:18,240 Speaker 1: our industrial base so that we have the most modern 517 00:34:18,280 --> 00:34:21,600 Speaker 1: technology in the world produced at a reasonable cost and 518 00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:26,840 Speaker 1: huge quantities will take dramatic change. Having strategies for dealing 519 00:34:27,200 --> 00:34:32,080 Speaker 1: with dictatorships like North Korea and Iran and Russia and 520 00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:38,440 Speaker 1: China and Venezuela and Cuba and Nicaragua will take dramatic change. 521 00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:43,239 Speaker 1: And it's very hard in a normal peacetime democracy to 522 00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:46,239 Speaker 1: accept that level of change or to believe that the 523 00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:49,719 Speaker 1: world can be that tough. But it can be, and 524 00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:54,759 Speaker 1: it is, and we need strategic thinking more today than 525 00:34:54,840 --> 00:34:58,239 Speaker 1: any time since nineteen fifty and I hope we can 526 00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:02,840 Speaker 1: have a national debate what are the strategies necessary for 527 00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:08,000 Speaker 1: America to survive with safety, with prosperity, and with freedom. 528 00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:11,040 Speaker 1: Because unless we come up with strategies that are real 529 00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:14,360 Speaker 1: in a world that is dangerous, we are going to 530 00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:18,200 Speaker 1: run a real risk of a disaster in the foreseeable future. 531 00:35:18,719 --> 00:35:24,000 Speaker 1: And I hope this has been helpful. New World is 532 00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:28,640 Speaker 1: produced by gingersh three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer 533 00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:33,200 Speaker 1: is Guernsey Sloan. Our researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork 534 00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:36,319 Speaker 1: for the show was created by Steve Penley. Special thanks 535 00:35:36,320 --> 00:35:39,040 Speaker 1: to the team at Gingrish three sixty. If you've been 536 00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:42,440 Speaker 1: enjoying Newsworld, I hope you'll go to Apple Podcasts and 537 00:35:42,520 --> 00:35:45,040 Speaker 1: both rate us with five stars and give us a 538 00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:48,680 Speaker 1: review so others can learn what it's all about. Right now, 539 00:35:48,920 --> 00:35:52,440 Speaker 1: listeners of Newtsworld consign up for my three free weekly 540 00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:57,640 Speaker 1: columns at gingrishtree sixty dot com slash newsletter. I'm newt Gingrich. 541 00:35:57,920 --> 00:35:58,920 Speaker 1: This is Newtworld.