1 00:00:12,680 --> 00:00:16,400 Speaker 1: The show goes on. This is the official show on 2 00:00:16,480 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: the Fish on First podcast channel with me Eli Sussman, 3 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:24,360 Speaker 1: Managing editor of fist Stripes, where we cover your Miami 4 00:00:24,440 --> 00:00:28,280 Speaker 1: Marlins every day in our own way. Another winning week 5 00:00:28,560 --> 00:00:32,040 Speaker 1: for the Fish as I record this on Sunday night, 6 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:34,800 Speaker 1: just about losing a series against the Giants. If Marlin 7 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:38,839 Speaker 1: is still one game over five hundred in possession of 8 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:43,880 Speaker 1: a National League wild card spot. You may be watching 9 00:00:44,040 --> 00:00:46,600 Speaker 1: me and seeing my face. This is We just started 10 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:50,440 Speaker 1: this a few weeks ago, cross posting these episodes to 11 00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:53,479 Speaker 1: our fish Strips YouTube channel, So if you are watching, 12 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:56,760 Speaker 1: please leave a like on this video and share it 13 00:00:56,800 --> 00:00:58,960 Speaker 1: around and let us know how we're doing with this 14 00:00:59,040 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 1: video presentation as fact of it for everybody listening. Subscribe 15 00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:04,360 Speaker 1: to fish on First wherever you get your pods. You'll 16 00:01:04,360 --> 00:01:09,200 Speaker 1: find the official show fish Stripes, Unfiltered, Fishology, State of 17 00:01:09,200 --> 00:01:13,199 Speaker 1: the Fish, What a Relief, and any other special edition 18 00:01:13,319 --> 00:01:16,520 Speaker 1: audio offerings that we do. Those are available on the 19 00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:21,480 Speaker 1: podcast channel. You can see the logo up there. Similar 20 00:01:21,560 --> 00:01:23,560 Speaker 1: color scheme as Fish Stripes, so it's easy to find 21 00:01:24,040 --> 00:01:26,479 Speaker 1: and for all of our coverage of the Marlins all 22 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:30,840 Speaker 1: year round in all its forms fishstripes dot com. That's 23 00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:33,880 Speaker 1: where you want to go. Go to fish stripes dot com. 24 00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:39,840 Speaker 1: The Marlins have a Although this season has been above 25 00:01:39,920 --> 00:01:43,280 Speaker 1: expectations as an overall team, there are still deficiencies to address. 26 00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:48,680 Speaker 1: No more obvious glaring one than the catching position for 27 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:53,160 Speaker 1: the Marlins. Just a couple of years ago, Marlins were 28 00:01:53,200 --> 00:01:55,800 Speaker 1: in a position where they just blew it all up, 29 00:01:56,000 --> 00:02:00,280 Speaker 1: started over put some chips in a deal to require 30 00:02:00,360 --> 00:02:04,640 Speaker 1: Jacob Stallings from the Pittsburgh Pirates plan. Heading into twenty 31 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:07,640 Speaker 1: twenty two, he would be the guy behind the plate 32 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:11,880 Speaker 1: in a variety of younger options buying for the backup spot. 33 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:17,240 Speaker 1: Twenty twenty three, him and Nick Vortes basically splitting up 34 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:21,400 Speaker 1: the duties hoping Stallings could bounce back to his gold 35 00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 1: glove above average form that he had in twenty twenty one. 36 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:28,960 Speaker 1: And now we're here, forty seven games into the season. 37 00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:31,440 Speaker 1: Almost half of those games have been caught by Stallings, 38 00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:35,120 Speaker 1: and it's obvious by moving forward he should be catching 39 00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:38,200 Speaker 1: less than half the time. It is time. It maybe 40 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:43,000 Speaker 1: pass time to demote Jacob Stallings. I'm going to spend 41 00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:45,800 Speaker 1: this episode explaining what that means, why I've reached this 42 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:49,360 Speaker 1: conclusion and where the Marlins go from here with the 43 00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:52,000 Speaker 1: catching position for the rest of twenty twenty three and 44 00:02:52,040 --> 00:02:55,560 Speaker 1: beyond here on the official show, stick with me for 45 00:02:55,680 --> 00:03:01,519 Speaker 1: a very interesting conversation about the Marlin behind the plate. 46 00:03:05,720 --> 00:03:09,160 Speaker 1: Stallings was, by a lot of measures, just a really 47 00:03:09,360 --> 00:03:12,760 Speaker 1: solid catching option when they acquired him from the Pirates 48 00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:15,919 Speaker 1: in a four player deal to be the main guy 49 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:19,520 Speaker 1: behind the plate for a team that struggled a lot, 50 00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:22,760 Speaker 1: just as much offensively as defensively with the catching position. 51 00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:26,240 Speaker 1: There was no safer way to go than with Jacob 52 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:29,919 Speaker 1: Stallings coming off the year that he had with Pittsburgh 53 00:03:29,960 --> 00:03:34,440 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one, and just with the exception of 54 00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:36,840 Speaker 1: a brief hot stretch coming out of the twenty twenty 55 00:03:36,920 --> 00:03:41,280 Speaker 1: two All Star Break, he has not been even resembled 56 00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:44,600 Speaker 1: who they thought they were acquiring in that type of 57 00:03:44,680 --> 00:03:47,400 Speaker 1: deal with him. So you need to start with the 58 00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:51,040 Speaker 1: offense because that is kind of what is the most 59 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:54,080 Speaker 1: striking issue with Stallings. Since coming over to the Marlins 60 00:03:54,240 --> 00:03:56,640 Speaker 1: twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three, he is a 61 00:03:56,840 --> 00:04:00,840 Speaker 1: fifty nine weighted runs created plus league average is one hundred. 62 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:04,680 Speaker 1: He is forty one percent worse than a league average hitter, 63 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:11,680 Speaker 1: and it's been just indescribably bad. Here in twenty twenty three, 64 00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:16,680 Speaker 1: he's been the worst hitter at any position that's receiving 65 00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:20,760 Speaker 1: any substantial amount of playing time for a major league 66 00:04:20,800 --> 00:04:24,920 Speaker 1: team this year. As of Sunday, he is slashing one 67 00:04:24,880 --> 00:04:29,479 Speaker 1: to eighteen one seventy eight one sixty two. That's average, 68 00:04:29,520 --> 00:04:31,839 Speaker 1: that's on base, that's the slugging. They're all well below 69 00:04:31,880 --> 00:04:35,920 Speaker 1: two hundred a WRC plus in the negatives for this year. 70 00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:37,960 Speaker 1: If you do not think that was possible, Yeah, it 71 00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:40,640 Speaker 1: goes all the way down to negative one hundred, whereas 72 00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:44,680 Speaker 1: he is at negative four. He's been a full win 73 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:51,080 Speaker 1: below replacement level almost already this season. We're still relatively 74 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:54,120 Speaker 1: small fraction of the way through the season. So here's 75 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:57,880 Speaker 1: the overall wins above replacement numbers dating back to the 76 00:04:57,920 --> 00:05:01,240 Speaker 1: start of last season twenty twenty two. Here's every team 77 00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:05,839 Speaker 1: the least valuable player position player that is hitters in baseball. 78 00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:10,720 Speaker 1: Least valuable hitter is old friend Miguel Cabrera getting a 79 00:05:10,760 --> 00:05:14,680 Speaker 1: whole lot of playing time for a rebuilding Tigers team. 80 00:05:15,320 --> 00:05:19,040 Speaker 1: He has He's earned this, he has earned this decline 81 00:05:19,120 --> 00:05:21,800 Speaker 1: phase of his career. By being a first ballot Hall 82 00:05:21,839 --> 00:05:24,240 Speaker 1: of Fame type hitter, and you could question the way 83 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:27,039 Speaker 1: that the Tigers are using him. Regardless, he's the worst. 84 00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:31,839 Speaker 1: Right behind him fron meil Reyes, who right before the stretch, 85 00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:35,280 Speaker 1: who is a pretty interesting power hitter, and then that 86 00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:38,120 Speaker 1: game power kind of cratered on him and the other 87 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:42,760 Speaker 1: flaws in his game were exposed. Then there's Robinson Chirinos. 88 00:05:43,279 --> 00:05:46,240 Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure he just retired. Somebody could correct me 89 00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:48,120 Speaker 1: if I'm wrong. I think Chirino's just retired. He is 90 00:05:48,160 --> 00:05:51,720 Speaker 1: the third worst wins above replacement among hitters since the 91 00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:55,360 Speaker 1: start of twenty twenty two, and then fourth worst out 92 00:05:55,360 --> 00:05:58,400 Speaker 1: of many, many hundreds of hitters that have appeared in 93 00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:03,200 Speaker 1: major league games during this span is Jacob Stalngs only 94 00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:08,120 Speaker 1: ahead of those other guys, negative one point five wins 95 00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:13,760 Speaker 1: above replacement since being acquired by the Marlins, substantially worse 96 00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:16,600 Speaker 1: than if they were just to call up the typical 97 00:06:17,040 --> 00:06:21,320 Speaker 1: ho hum minor league catcher to plug in and play that. 98 00:06:21,400 --> 00:06:24,760 Speaker 1: It's a combination of the struggles and also of the 99 00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:28,520 Speaker 1: large exposure that he has had two major League baseball games, 100 00:06:28,800 --> 00:06:32,000 Speaker 1: specifically here in twenty twenty three. He's striking out more 101 00:06:32,040 --> 00:06:35,160 Speaker 1: than ever, he's walking less than ever, and he's not 102 00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:39,360 Speaker 1: getting hits not getting hits. There was a stretch early 103 00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:41,240 Speaker 1: in the year. I remember this where a few weeks 104 00:06:41,279 --> 00:06:43,719 Speaker 1: into the year he was barreling up the ball quite 105 00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:47,120 Speaker 1: a bit. And so the underlying numbers will tell you 106 00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:49,760 Speaker 1: that he's been quite a bit unlucky, that he has 107 00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:53,280 Speaker 1: been hitting the ball hard that he should get. There 108 00:06:53,320 --> 00:06:56,040 Speaker 1: should be a lot more to those balls finding space 109 00:06:56,120 --> 00:06:58,200 Speaker 1: and the defense than they're currently are, and that is 110 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:03,880 Speaker 1: absolutely true his first career, his career weighted on bass 111 00:07:03,920 --> 00:07:07,360 Speaker 1: average has matched his expected weighted on bass average. What 112 00:07:07,440 --> 00:07:11,280 Speaker 1: I'm saying there is generally his quality of contact has 113 00:07:11,360 --> 00:07:16,480 Speaker 1: been a pretty close correlation with his actual results. There 114 00:07:16,480 --> 00:07:19,680 Speaker 1: are some players that they don't follow the typical pattern 115 00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:22,200 Speaker 1: there that the law that things don't average out, that 116 00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:25,840 Speaker 1: there's something unique that they're doing that creates some disparity. 117 00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:28,000 Speaker 1: Stallings is not one of these guys. He is like 118 00:07:28,040 --> 00:07:31,520 Speaker 1: the big majority of the population where usually if you 119 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:35,600 Speaker 1: can aggregate together all the batted balls that he has 120 00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:39,080 Speaker 1: and put roll it all together with the fact that 121 00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:43,400 Speaker 1: he generally uses all fields, with the fact that he 122 00:07:43,440 --> 00:07:46,960 Speaker 1: also has some limitations dragging him down as in terms 123 00:07:47,040 --> 00:07:50,440 Speaker 1: of beating out plays and hitting ball over the fence 124 00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:55,800 Speaker 1: that overall he usually things average out with stallings, and 125 00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:57,720 Speaker 1: that's not the case so far this year. There's an 126 00:07:57,840 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 1: eighty five point gap between his weighted on base average 127 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:05,360 Speaker 1: and the expected way down base average, especially with the slugging. 128 00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:09,640 Speaker 1: As I mentioned, for somebody that was barreling balls quite 129 00:08:09,640 --> 00:08:12,600 Speaker 1: a bit at least in April and still doesn't even 130 00:08:12,640 --> 00:08:16,560 Speaker 1: have a home run, that he's been a little bit 131 00:08:16,640 --> 00:08:20,600 Speaker 1: unlucky there. The expected slugging for him, the actual slugging 132 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:23,080 Speaker 1: is in the one hundreds. For twenty twenty three, the 133 00:08:23,160 --> 00:08:27,760 Speaker 1: expected slugging is three point fifteen, which would actually be 134 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:31,440 Speaker 1: even better than he had last year. All Right, The 135 00:08:31,480 --> 00:08:34,640 Speaker 1: problem is that there's been no sign of this really 136 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:38,440 Speaker 1: turning around on him. Where a lot of those really 137 00:08:38,520 --> 00:08:41,000 Speaker 1: nice line drives and deep fly balls who was sitting came 138 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:43,440 Speaker 1: in April, we've barely seen any of that in May. 139 00:08:44,040 --> 00:08:46,839 Speaker 1: Is not trending in the right direction there, but I 140 00:08:46,880 --> 00:08:49,400 Speaker 1: don't want to spend much more time on the hitting. 141 00:08:49,640 --> 00:08:52,960 Speaker 1: I can also mention quickly the base running. You take 142 00:08:53,000 --> 00:08:55,360 Speaker 1: it as an assumption with a catcher that they're just 143 00:08:55,400 --> 00:08:57,280 Speaker 1: not going to be able to add much value with 144 00:08:57,360 --> 00:09:00,080 Speaker 1: their legs. And the problem with stalling is that he 145 00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:03,760 Speaker 1: is all the way on the extreme ends of that spectrum. 146 00:09:03,760 --> 00:09:06,680 Speaker 1: He is on the short list of slowest runners in 147 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:12,200 Speaker 1: all of baseball, So that means he's not beating out 148 00:09:12,679 --> 00:09:17,200 Speaker 1: little hits, rounders into hits. He's clearly not stealing bases, 149 00:09:17,800 --> 00:09:21,120 Speaker 1: and he's not taking extra bases when he's on the 150 00:09:21,160 --> 00:09:23,480 Speaker 1: base pass as well, so he's not adding value in 151 00:09:23,480 --> 00:09:28,040 Speaker 1: that aspect. But the most the biggest bummer here with 152 00:09:28,360 --> 00:09:31,960 Speaker 1: him as a marvel and has been the defense, because 153 00:09:32,000 --> 00:09:34,960 Speaker 1: he was by reputation and by as best as we 154 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:38,960 Speaker 1: can analyze it, he was the gold standard for defense 155 00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:42,720 Speaker 1: at the catcher position. When he last played for the Pirates. 156 00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:47,400 Speaker 1: He was especially blocking balls. That blocking and receiving was 157 00:09:47,400 --> 00:09:51,840 Speaker 1: his forte as stat cast quantifies it, twenty two blocks 158 00:09:51,880 --> 00:09:58,040 Speaker 1: above average during the twenty twenty one season, and that 159 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:00,680 Speaker 1: adds up when you make it was kind of place 160 00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:04,240 Speaker 1: saving your pitchers of wild pitches, and very famously you 161 00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:07,360 Speaker 1: didn't commit a single pass ball during that entire year. 162 00:10:07,880 --> 00:10:12,320 Speaker 1: So making the routine stuff every single time, that adds 163 00:10:12,360 --> 00:10:14,360 Speaker 1: up to a lot of value. He was a positive 164 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:18,599 Speaker 1: pitch framer as well. Now, Songings is in a typically 165 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:24,199 Speaker 1: tall catcher and that is historically made him. You think 166 00:10:24,200 --> 00:10:25,599 Speaker 1: that would make it a big challenge for him to 167 00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:28,080 Speaker 1: frame pitches near the bottom of the zone, right because 168 00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:30,920 Speaker 1: at the bottom of most of these hitters strike zones, 169 00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:34,640 Speaker 1: their knees are even lower than his knees. He has 170 00:10:34,679 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 1: to really get down there and he has to really 171 00:10:38,360 --> 00:10:42,360 Speaker 1: reach he for somebody that has these long limbs, especially 172 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:44,240 Speaker 1: if a pitch isn't at the location that he was 173 00:10:44,280 --> 00:10:46,839 Speaker 1: expecting it to be. That's a tough tesk to do. 174 00:10:47,280 --> 00:10:50,079 Speaker 1: And somehow he was doing at an above average level 175 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:52,720 Speaker 1: when he was with the Pirates, his previous team in 176 00:10:52,720 --> 00:10:55,040 Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, and what we've seen with the Marlins 177 00:10:55,280 --> 00:10:58,760 Speaker 1: and his catcher framing runs, it was bad last year 178 00:10:58,800 --> 00:11:01,440 Speaker 1: and it's been just as bad a year. He's not 179 00:11:01,480 --> 00:11:04,920 Speaker 1: getting those low strike, borderline pitches to go his way 180 00:11:04,960 --> 00:11:10,480 Speaker 1: nearly as often as he was previously. He's still doing 181 00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:14,120 Speaker 1: okay on the sides of the plate, but he's also 182 00:11:14,200 --> 00:11:16,680 Speaker 1: not doing particularly well at the top of the zone either, 183 00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:19,640 Speaker 1: and that's something that's kind of hard to wrap your 184 00:11:19,679 --> 00:11:22,280 Speaker 1: mind around. Considering the height advantage. That he has on 185 00:11:22,320 --> 00:11:27,199 Speaker 1: those particular pitches, so he's not in the blocking. We 186 00:11:27,520 --> 00:11:30,240 Speaker 1: saw it early on his pass ball streak came to 187 00:11:30,280 --> 00:11:34,880 Speaker 1: an end, and also with wild pitches, and those are 188 00:11:35,000 --> 00:11:38,200 Speaker 1: up based on where they were and where you'd expect 189 00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:43,760 Speaker 1: them to be. For Jacob Stallings, the most, I guess 190 00:11:43,800 --> 00:11:47,480 Speaker 1: the place where he is furthest removed from even being 191 00:11:47,520 --> 00:11:51,960 Speaker 1: a decent catcher is controlling the running game. So he 192 00:11:52,240 --> 00:11:55,160 Speaker 1: was kind of neutral in that aspect before the trade, 193 00:11:55,200 --> 00:11:57,840 Speaker 1: and then since then he's been a pretty clear negative 194 00:11:58,160 --> 00:12:01,520 Speaker 1: and catching runners trying to steal, deterring runners from trying 195 00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:05,000 Speaker 1: to steal in the first place. And that aspect is 196 00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:08,319 Speaker 1: pretty big on its own right from your pitcher's perspective, 197 00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:13,400 Speaker 1: if they are if the hitter, if the runners on base, 198 00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:16,880 Speaker 1: for those pitchers are constantly taking these big leads and 199 00:12:16,960 --> 00:12:20,160 Speaker 1: forcing you to use those. Now this year that they're 200 00:12:20,200 --> 00:12:22,959 Speaker 1: counting those disengagements from the mount, if you feel I 201 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:25,559 Speaker 1: get to use more of those up than you ordinarily would, 202 00:12:26,320 --> 00:12:28,400 Speaker 1: it takes guys out of their rhythm and it takes 203 00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:30,640 Speaker 1: away their attention from where it's supposed to be, which 204 00:12:30,679 --> 00:12:39,000 Speaker 1: is on the batter. So there's all these ancillary consequences 205 00:12:39,000 --> 00:12:41,719 Speaker 1: of not being able to throw runners out installings. He 206 00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:45,720 Speaker 1: has below average arm strength. The pop time is pretty 207 00:12:45,720 --> 00:12:47,640 Speaker 1: decent in terms of how quickly he actually gets rid 208 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:50,120 Speaker 1: of the ball, but not getting enough juice on the 209 00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:53,480 Speaker 1: throw and not accurate enough with those throws in order 210 00:12:53,520 --> 00:12:56,800 Speaker 1: to get guys. During his year that the Marlins traded 211 00:12:56,840 --> 00:12:59,560 Speaker 1: for him, he had a twenty nine percent caught stealing rate, 212 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:03,680 Speaker 1: was cut in half in twenty twenty two to fifteen percent, 213 00:13:04,040 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 1: and that continues to go down This year just seven 214 00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:15,040 Speaker 1: percent caught stealings for Jacob Stallings. So there's really you 215 00:13:15,080 --> 00:13:20,000 Speaker 1: don't this, doesn't it not. They were sold this bill 216 00:13:20,040 --> 00:13:24,960 Speaker 1: of goods by the Pirates for Blair in his early thirties, 217 00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:30,560 Speaker 1: which is a potential danger zone for catchers. They tend 218 00:13:30,559 --> 00:13:33,440 Speaker 1: to age quicker than others. But otherwise this is just baffling, 219 00:13:33,559 --> 00:13:37,720 Speaker 1: is how Stallings has gotten worse almost every aspect of 220 00:13:37,760 --> 00:13:42,880 Speaker 1: the game, accumulating in this player that you simply would 221 00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:45,400 Speaker 1: not see on a major league roster had he not 222 00:13:45,559 --> 00:13:49,080 Speaker 1: had his history and reputation around him. This brings us 223 00:13:49,080 --> 00:13:51,840 Speaker 1: to the alternative that the Barlins have at the catcher position. 224 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:58,080 Speaker 1: Nick Fortes. Fortes thankfully has caught more of the endings 225 00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:00,760 Speaker 1: than Stallings this year, but only by a tiny narrow margin. 226 00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:06,120 Speaker 1: And we don't want to make big decisions about forty 227 00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:09,520 Speaker 1: seven games a month and a half barely into the season. 228 00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:14,280 Speaker 1: It's a small sample. To put this into context, I 229 00:14:14,280 --> 00:14:16,320 Speaker 1: feel that it's important to like stretch out the sample, 230 00:14:16,720 --> 00:14:18,959 Speaker 1: even doing a big favorite of Stallings going all the 231 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:22,120 Speaker 1: way back to that Piratesier in twenty twenty one as well, 232 00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:27,360 Speaker 1: comparison between Stallings and four Tes. Touching on the hitting 233 00:14:27,400 --> 00:14:32,040 Speaker 1: aspect of it again very quickly, where four Tes has 234 00:14:32,080 --> 00:14:34,880 Speaker 1: more power, he has more home runs in less than 235 00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:40,400 Speaker 1: half as many played appearances, and he also strikes out 236 00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:43,440 Speaker 1: at a lower clip. He doesn't walk quite as much, 237 00:14:44,360 --> 00:14:48,080 Speaker 1: but certainly he is a better all around hitter than 238 00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:52,480 Speaker 1: Stallings is. When you go back including that pre Marvelin's 239 00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:55,480 Speaker 1: here for Stallings dating back to twenty twenty one by 240 00:14:55,720 --> 00:15:00,880 Speaker 1: Baseball Reference wins above replacement that are essentially the same value. Again, 241 00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:04,640 Speaker 1: with Stallings having twice as much playing time even more 242 00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:08,000 Speaker 1: than twice as much during that span, they've accumulated the 243 00:15:08,000 --> 00:15:13,240 Speaker 1: same value as overall players. Wherefore t has really distinguishes 244 00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:15,480 Speaker 1: himself from a lot of catchers is As a runner, 245 00:15:15,520 --> 00:15:19,120 Speaker 1: he is an above average runner by league averages, and 246 00:15:19,280 --> 00:15:22,080 Speaker 1: certainly compared to the catcher position. That's even more true. 247 00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:26,560 Speaker 1: He's stolen eight bases, whereas Stallings hasn't stolen a single 248 00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:31,200 Speaker 1: one during that span. He has made I think even 249 00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 1: fewer outs on the bases than Stallings has. Those are 250 00:15:34,040 --> 00:15:38,680 Speaker 1: decisions on balls and play, even that Stallings has tried 251 00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:40,640 Speaker 1: to do a little bit too much with how little 252 00:15:40,720 --> 00:15:44,520 Speaker 1: he actually has in that aspect, And probably the biggest 253 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:47,240 Speaker 1: disparity between them is that extra base is taken. This 254 00:15:47,440 --> 00:15:51,640 Speaker 1: is a stat from Baseball Reference about going from first 255 00:15:51,760 --> 00:15:55,320 Speaker 1: to third on singles, going from first to home on doubles, 256 00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:58,160 Speaker 1: going from second to home on singles. You get the 257 00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:02,960 Speaker 1: idea taking an extra base relative to what the actual 258 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:09,840 Speaker 1: hit would suggest. With Fortes sixty one percent league averages 259 00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:14,200 Speaker 1: in the low forties, Fortes at sixty one, Stallings at 260 00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:18,920 Speaker 1: ten percent. Almost never does he take that extra base, 261 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:23,080 Speaker 1: even when I guess the only times he's done it, 262 00:16:23,160 --> 00:16:25,680 Speaker 1: probably I would assume I've been with two outs when 263 00:16:25,680 --> 00:16:28,600 Speaker 1: he's able to actually run on contact. That it's almost 264 00:16:28,760 --> 00:16:31,360 Speaker 1: mind boggling that any player could be at only ten percent, 265 00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:35,600 Speaker 1: considering that those two out situations almost guarantee that you 266 00:16:35,680 --> 00:16:39,960 Speaker 1: can get an extra base on those plays, and even 267 00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:43,520 Speaker 1: with the productive outs, I guess that's something that goes 268 00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:46,760 Speaker 1: against both players. Fortes far from perfect, as I'll get 269 00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:49,600 Speaker 1: into in just a moment, and that's one area where 270 00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:52,840 Speaker 1: Stallings is a little bit better in situational hitting and 271 00:16:52,960 --> 00:16:56,000 Speaker 1: finding ways to move earners even when he's not getting 272 00:16:56,080 --> 00:17:00,400 Speaker 1: hits himself, and Fortes a lot of struggles productive vouts, 273 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:04,560 Speaker 1: as Baseball Reference tries to qualify, So that's one of 274 00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:09,080 Speaker 1: the deficiencies in his game during a particular we know 275 00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:10,760 Speaker 1: here in twenty twenty three, four Test is off to 276 00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:12,959 Speaker 1: a bad start on his own. That's why the Marlins 277 00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:16,760 Speaker 1: as a whole are in this position where their catching 278 00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:20,720 Speaker 1: spot has been sub replacement level. Combining both of these guys, 279 00:17:21,119 --> 00:17:24,600 Speaker 1: that's why they need to try something else with it, 280 00:17:25,080 --> 00:17:28,480 Speaker 1: And to me, the obvious decision is to increase four 281 00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:31,200 Speaker 1: test is playing time even more. He's been the better 282 00:17:31,280 --> 00:17:35,320 Speaker 1: player going back over parts of three seasons, and he 283 00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:37,879 Speaker 1: does it in a variety of ways because he hits 284 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:42,639 Speaker 1: form of power, and he runs better, and defensively, he 285 00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:47,360 Speaker 1: at least has a decent arm back there. The accuracy 286 00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:50,600 Speaker 1: on his arm kind of comes and goes, and the 287 00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:53,720 Speaker 1: velocity isn't anything special. But I think you add it 288 00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:56,880 Speaker 1: all together and the results speak for himself. That he's 289 00:17:56,960 --> 00:18:00,320 Speaker 1: able to catch runners slightly more frequently than Stalling says. 290 00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:04,680 Speaker 1: He's able to frame pitches better than Stallings. That's what's 291 00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:08,159 Speaker 1: been really baffling about Stallings is that he's continued to 292 00:18:08,200 --> 00:18:10,800 Speaker 1: get worse as a pitch framer, and whereas Fortes, I 293 00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:13,879 Speaker 1: think he's only improved from there. There were some questions, 294 00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:17,159 Speaker 1: especially when he got called up originally, about receiving, and 295 00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:21,000 Speaker 1: by most metrics, he's been above average at framing pitches 296 00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:25,560 Speaker 1: and stealing strikes so far this year, and his most 297 00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:30,000 Speaker 1: recent shining moment was catching that four pitcher shutout on 298 00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:33,760 Speaker 1: Saturday against the Giants, only the second shutout that the 299 00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:40,040 Speaker 1: Marlins pitching staff has thrown during this entire season. Marlins 300 00:18:40,080 --> 00:18:43,160 Speaker 1: have to do something here, and it could help having 301 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:48,240 Speaker 1: Fortes playing more. I think we're deep enough. The struggles 302 00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:52,359 Speaker 1: have been extreme enough by Stallings and sensing that they 303 00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:54,600 Speaker 1: could be at the end of the line anyway. He's 304 00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:57,679 Speaker 1: not under contract beyond this year. He's arbitration eligible. They 305 00:18:57,760 --> 00:19:01,280 Speaker 1: can cut the cord, no strings attack after this year 306 00:19:01,320 --> 00:19:04,320 Speaker 1: without owing him any money. There's a case to be 307 00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:08,000 Speaker 1: made that Marlins could cut their losses at this point, 308 00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:10,040 Speaker 1: given the sustained period of time in which he has 309 00:19:10,119 --> 00:19:14,440 Speaker 1: not been a good baseball player. I pump brakes on that, 310 00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:20,600 Speaker 1: just because the alternatives are not all that sexy for 311 00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:25,360 Speaker 1: this Marlins team. Austin Allen, He's been the primary guy 312 00:19:25,600 --> 00:19:29,800 Speaker 1: at tripa A Jacksonville this season. He played a handful 313 00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:32,520 Speaker 1: of games during spring training as a non roster invitee. 314 00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:35,680 Speaker 1: This is his first year in the Marlins organization. For 315 00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:40,240 Speaker 1: Austin Allen, he caught my attention in April because he 316 00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:43,199 Speaker 1: had a slump where he went more than forty at 317 00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:47,040 Speaker 1: bats without getting a hit. You could dunk on Stallings 318 00:19:47,040 --> 00:19:49,119 Speaker 1: as much as you want, but he's never had anything 319 00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:53,000 Speaker 1: close to that extended period of futility at the plate. 320 00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:56,800 Speaker 1: What I had neglected to notice until just this past 321 00:19:56,840 --> 00:19:59,960 Speaker 1: week is how he has turned his season somewhat around 322 00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:03,680 Speaker 1: down there in Triple as. He is, as I said, 323 00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:06,560 Speaker 1: continuing to be the primary catcher down there, and that's 324 00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:10,440 Speaker 1: because he hits tanks. He has six home runs in 325 00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:13,520 Speaker 1: his last eleven twelve games the last couple of weeks, 326 00:20:14,080 --> 00:20:18,760 Speaker 1: he has six homers, a couple no doubters in there, 327 00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:22,639 Speaker 1: as well as some that should have been home runs 328 00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:28,520 Speaker 1: and just barely got taken away from him. So Austin Allen, 329 00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:31,760 Speaker 1: we're going to dive into the stats right now on 330 00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:36,000 Speaker 1: mister Austin Allen. Playing at Triple A this year. With 331 00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:39,040 Speaker 1: stack cast hooked up at those ballparks, we weren't read 332 00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:42,879 Speaker 1: able to get a lot of the same detailed data 333 00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:45,360 Speaker 1: about him as you would get at the major league level. 334 00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:51,640 Speaker 1: His batting average on balls and play is one fifty 335 00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:54,280 Speaker 1: five entering play on Sunday. That is one of the 336 00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:57,680 Speaker 1: very lowest out of anybody in the minor leagues that 337 00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:01,560 Speaker 1: are playing steady playing time. Gloss at his production and 338 00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:05,000 Speaker 1: you see he as an eighty one WRC plus. So 339 00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:08,920 Speaker 1: that's that's pretty mediocre, especially for a guy that's repeating 340 00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:13,080 Speaker 1: Triple A for the fourth time in his professional career. 341 00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:17,960 Speaker 1: But that babbb in the one fifties. There's just no 342 00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:20,360 Speaker 1: way that reflects who you are as a hitter. Doing 343 00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:23,840 Speaker 1: that over substantial period of time. There is some bad 344 00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:27,320 Speaker 1: luck holding him back on getting hits his slash line 345 00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:33,560 Speaker 1: overall gives him an OPS in the seven hundreds hitter. 346 00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:35,359 Speaker 1: It shows you how hit her friendly a league it 347 00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:38,399 Speaker 1: is that that WRC plus is only eighty one despite 348 00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:41,640 Speaker 1: opsing over seven hundred. But he does hit the ball hard, 349 00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:45,600 Speaker 1: as you would understand due to all the home runs, 350 00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:48,280 Speaker 1: an average exit v low of eighty nine point five 351 00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:50,680 Speaker 1: miles per hour. That's a little better than the major 352 00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:55,479 Speaker 1: league average. The top ends max exit v low. That's 353 00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:58,800 Speaker 1: what gets me really intrigued about Alan maxing out at 354 00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:03,359 Speaker 1: one fourteen this season. That is, that's the kind of 355 00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:07,399 Speaker 1: number that you simply don't see from almost anybody except 356 00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:11,400 Speaker 1: for Jorge Hilaire Hoory Hilaire on the Marlins roster, Ave 357 00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:15,800 Speaker 1: Garcia when he's right, and that's about it everybody. For 358 00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:19,760 Speaker 1: everybody else, that's almost unreachable. And yet he's able to 359 00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:21,879 Speaker 1: create the type of power a hard hit rate of 360 00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:25,280 Speaker 1: forty one percent, another number that's significantly better than the 361 00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:29,280 Speaker 1: big league average on him. So he hits the ball hard, 362 00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:33,520 Speaker 1: he's not getting consistent results to prove it. And here's 363 00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:38,240 Speaker 1: just one example of something that's keeping down Austin Allen's 364 00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:40,480 Speaker 1: batting average so far this year. 365 00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,880 Speaker 2: Two on too out the old one and Alan Swams 366 00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:47,920 Speaker 2: lifts a high in the air and a laugh. Here 367 00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:50,600 Speaker 2: I call him back drift into the warning track, leaping 368 00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:54,000 Speaker 2: a the wall, craught it back. 369 00:22:55,000 --> 00:23:00,200 Speaker 1: Oh my godness, hit a ball that was over the 370 00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:04,000 Speaker 1: wall in Jacksonville, robbed by the left fielder. Otherwise he'd 371 00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:09,360 Speaker 1: have even one additional tater on him. Things on going 372 00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:12,880 Speaker 1: his way in a small sample, but the batted ball 373 00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:15,080 Speaker 1: quality is exciting, and he does it from the left 374 00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:17,000 Speaker 1: side of the plate. I need to mention that because 375 00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:19,480 Speaker 1: we're at a time with this Marlins roster. Aside from 376 00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:22,280 Speaker 1: we want to point at things that are missing from 377 00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:24,159 Speaker 1: this team in order for you to trust them to 378 00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:28,160 Speaker 1: sustain their winning ways. The big one is the lack 379 00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:32,200 Speaker 1: of overall catcher production, specifically the lack of having any 380 00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:34,840 Speaker 1: left handed power threats on the active roster. Right now, 381 00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:39,280 Speaker 1: there's Luis or Eyes and Joey Wendell and Xavier Edwards. 382 00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:42,560 Speaker 1: Switch hits. For those guys, you can stack them on 383 00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:45,480 Speaker 1: top of one another and they're rarely going to hit 384 00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:50,159 Speaker 1: a ball over the wall. That's a major deficiency with 385 00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:53,320 Speaker 1: this team that really is going to hold them back 386 00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:57,359 Speaker 1: and cern matchups. So Alan. He can hit for power, 387 00:23:57,720 --> 00:23:59,280 Speaker 1: and he hits from the left side of the plate. 388 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:02,760 Speaker 1: But this is where we get into why I'm not 389 00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:07,280 Speaker 1: overly excited about him, is he's not doing much against 390 00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:10,360 Speaker 1: right handed pitching. Is the production is almost the same 391 00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:13,840 Speaker 1: regardless of the handedness of the opposing pitcher. He's slashing 392 00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:17,440 Speaker 1: one point eighty two, two seventy six, four fifty five 393 00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:19,680 Speaker 1: versus rities. You see the power in there with that 394 00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:23,680 Speaker 1: slugging percentage. Overall, he's getting out the vast majority of 395 00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:27,480 Speaker 1: the time in those matchups. Then there's the defense. The 396 00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:32,240 Speaker 1: defense is always going to be a significant consideration for 397 00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:37,879 Speaker 1: any catcher, and with him, he's he makes even Jacob 398 00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:41,840 Speaker 1: Stallings look like he has a canon because Alan has 399 00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:45,320 Speaker 1: thrown out only two out of thirty nine would be 400 00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:49,040 Speaker 1: base dealers in the minor leagues this year. This is 401 00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:51,760 Speaker 1: after having a caught sealing percentage in the of twenty 402 00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:54,600 Speaker 1: percent the previous two years, so that's a little bit 403 00:24:54,960 --> 00:25:00,480 Speaker 1: more respectable for this year. Not really particularly close to 404 00:25:00,560 --> 00:25:04,560 Speaker 1: getting most guys. His arm strength is only a tick 405 00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:09,200 Speaker 1: lower than Stallings and Fortes, But it's about the accuracy 406 00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:13,240 Speaker 1: and it's about the really slow exchange. Two point one 407 00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:16,879 Speaker 1: point one second pop time this year, which would be 408 00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:21,760 Speaker 1: dead last among qualified major league catchers. So that shows 409 00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:23,679 Speaker 1: that he takes more time than anybody to get rid 410 00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:27,680 Speaker 1: of the ball, and once he does, those throws generally 411 00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:31,719 Speaker 1: are not good enough. Now, the other aspect with him, 412 00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:33,159 Speaker 1: the reason why it takes him a while to get 413 00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:35,320 Speaker 1: rid of the ball is because he is a knee 414 00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:38,119 Speaker 1: down catcher. This is something that's become a lot more 415 00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:43,520 Speaker 1: prevalent across baseball, though not particularly with the Marlins, at 416 00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:47,000 Speaker 1: least at the major league level. So that's a key 417 00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:50,960 Speaker 1: difference between him stylistically and Stallings. So he puts the 418 00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:54,720 Speaker 1: knee down, and the intent is to put you in 419 00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:58,360 Speaker 1: a better position to frame pitches because you are more 420 00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:02,960 Speaker 1: balanced and you're able to do that, But it's sacrificing 421 00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:06,240 Speaker 1: you as a thrower because it takes more time for 422 00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:09,840 Speaker 1: you to get that knee up on Lesia throw. And 423 00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:13,240 Speaker 1: what I've seen of Alan, I really like his framing. 424 00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:16,480 Speaker 1: I think that is big league caliber framing and he 425 00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:19,399 Speaker 1: would be an upgrade above Stallings in that regard. So 426 00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:22,920 Speaker 1: it's about the trade off, and it's not really that 427 00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:28,359 Speaker 1: difficult to have this conversation because again with Stallings. He's 428 00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:31,359 Speaker 1: barely catching anybody stealing in the first place. And if 429 00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:34,119 Speaker 1: there's a chance that Alan could steal more strikes for 430 00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:38,280 Speaker 1: his pitchers because of his technique receiving the ball, then 431 00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:43,040 Speaker 1: that'd be a net positive defensively in addition to being 432 00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:47,760 Speaker 1: a clear net positive offensively. It's impossible for to be 433 00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:51,800 Speaker 1: any worse at the plate than Stallings is. The thing 434 00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:54,119 Speaker 1: with Alan is that he's had previous opportunities in the 435 00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:58,200 Speaker 1: majors and he has flopped in those opportunities. He played 436 00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:01,280 Speaker 1: most recently for the Oakland A's in the majors. I'm 437 00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:03,640 Speaker 1: trying to remember what the other team was. They gave 438 00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:06,960 Speaker 1: major league playing time the Padres in twenty nineteen, and 439 00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:11,439 Speaker 1: overall a five point forty oh PS. He was basically 440 00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:13,920 Speaker 1: just as bad a hitter in his previous major league 441 00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:17,520 Speaker 1: opportunities as Stallings has been as a Marlin the past 442 00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:23,480 Speaker 1: couple of years. So there's a clear concern about his 443 00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:27,040 Speaker 1: hit tool in general. The power is there, but he's 444 00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:29,880 Speaker 1: not getting hits in the minors. There's only so much 445 00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:33,040 Speaker 1: blame that you could put on luck coming into that. 446 00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:36,639 Speaker 1: He's somebody that they just be kind of easy to defend. 447 00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:41,200 Speaker 1: Because of the way that he gets underneath the ball 448 00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:44,240 Speaker 1: a little bit too much, so a lot of lazy 449 00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:48,840 Speaker 1: flyouts in there, and playing in a hitter friendly league 450 00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:51,600 Speaker 1: right now, and just still not getting very many hits 451 00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:57,600 Speaker 1: to go along with it. All things considered, I think 452 00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:03,719 Speaker 1: it's not I'm sure there are other organizations that may 453 00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:08,600 Speaker 1: have a worse triple A catching situation, you know, but 454 00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:11,680 Speaker 1: this is not a guy that is forcing his way 455 00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:13,880 Speaker 1: into the show, and he's not somebody that I would 456 00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:18,119 Speaker 1: put particularly high expectations on. He'd probably be an upgrade 457 00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:23,359 Speaker 1: over Stallings, but we're still at a point where I 458 00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:25,920 Speaker 1: don't think I think is premature for the Marlins to 459 00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:29,240 Speaker 1: pull the plug on that for a guy that, even 460 00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:31,360 Speaker 1: if things go well for Alan, he's probably not going 461 00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:35,560 Speaker 1: to be a part of this organization's future beyond this 462 00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:39,880 Speaker 1: year for some preliminary trade targets. People love talking about 463 00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:45,240 Speaker 1: trade targets. Of course, that the Marlins could potentially go 464 00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:48,400 Speaker 1: outside the organization because they're not going to call Allan 465 00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:52,520 Speaker 1: and Santiago Chavez. He's also at triple A. He is 466 00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:56,080 Speaker 1: even less upside with the bat then a double A. 467 00:28:56,640 --> 00:29:02,520 Speaker 1: Will Banfield still get his hit tool is just as 468 00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:06,480 Speaker 1: I'm just as pessimistic about his hit tool as some 469 00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:08,920 Speaker 1: of these other guys. He just has shown it even 470 00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:14,400 Speaker 1: against minor league competition and cult hero Paul McIntosh. Unfortunately, 471 00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:16,920 Speaker 1: he's out with an injury right now without any cleaner 472 00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:23,800 Speaker 1: timeline to return to competition, so naturally think about who 473 00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:28,080 Speaker 1: could be available outside the organization and for the Marlins. 474 00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:33,920 Speaker 1: This whole idea behind this premise about minimizing Stalling's role 475 00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:37,360 Speaker 1: is coming in terms of the fact that he won't 476 00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:40,360 Speaker 1: be here beyond this current year and that they need 477 00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:43,680 Speaker 1: to figure out which two catchers they actually want on 478 00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:47,880 Speaker 1: their major league roster, and ideally, in perfect world, you 479 00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:50,800 Speaker 1: want to find those that catching tandem even before this 480 00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:55,280 Speaker 1: year is over. So who could they acquire a mid 481 00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:59,760 Speaker 1: season They're about to get up close look at Elias Diaz, 482 00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:04,200 Speaker 1: the starter for the Rockies, who might actually be a 483 00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:09,000 Speaker 1: All Star candidate considering the alternatives on that Rockies team. 484 00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:13,800 Speaker 1: He's having a good year offensively, he's having a great 485 00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:17,960 Speaker 1: year defensively, particularly throwing out runners more than half who 486 00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:23,480 Speaker 1: have attempted against him this year, and he's somebody that's 487 00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:25,640 Speaker 1: going to be worth looking into as we get closer 488 00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:31,000 Speaker 1: to the deadline, because barring as really shocking Serge, Rockies 489 00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:33,400 Speaker 1: are going to be sellers and Diaz only has one 490 00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:36,400 Speaker 1: more year of club control beyond this year. But that 491 00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:39,640 Speaker 1: being said, that also makes him somewhat of a lower 492 00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:42,600 Speaker 1: priority for the Marlins, just because their long term future 493 00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:45,480 Speaker 1: at the catching position is really unsettled. If they want 494 00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:48,440 Speaker 1: to make a substantial trade for Diaz, they might have 495 00:30:48,560 --> 00:30:51,440 Speaker 1: to give up quite a bit considering how well he's performing, 496 00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:55,320 Speaker 1: and that his salary for next year I think it's 497 00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:59,400 Speaker 1: in the six seven million dollar range for primary catcher. 498 00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:02,600 Speaker 1: Be quite a bargain If they're going to give up 499 00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:04,920 Speaker 1: quite a bit in a deal, Ideally it would be 500 00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:08,480 Speaker 1: somebody that they could see as a long term piece. 501 00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:14,200 Speaker 1: For someone that's Dias already into his thirties and with 502 00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:17,040 Speaker 1: only that one year on his contract beyond this year. 503 00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:19,880 Speaker 1: There's a lot they have to think about before pulling 504 00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:23,960 Speaker 1: the trigger on that. And besides him, there's Tyler Stevenson. 505 00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:29,160 Speaker 1: Maybe the Reds consider shopping him just because they're a 506 00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:32,600 Speaker 1: little farther away from contention, but taking a quick look 507 00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:36,080 Speaker 1: at them, their lack of internal options makes me think 508 00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:39,040 Speaker 1: that they'll try to hammer out an extension with Stevenson 509 00:31:39,120 --> 00:31:42,479 Speaker 1: before openly shopping him and elsewhere around the majors, it's 510 00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:44,640 Speaker 1: really hard to find guys in that sweet spot where 511 00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:47,959 Speaker 1: if several years of club control and you're ready confident 512 00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:50,920 Speaker 1: they could be a starting caliber guy and you wouldn't 513 00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:55,920 Speaker 1: have to give up a massive load of controllable prospect talent, 514 00:31:56,040 --> 00:31:58,160 Speaker 1: of which is Marlins organization. They just don't have a 515 00:31:58,240 --> 00:32:02,720 Speaker 1: ton to spare due to injuries and some underperformances. So 516 00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:05,440 Speaker 1: then you like move your gaze to the prospect side 517 00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:09,840 Speaker 1: of it. And I circled Austin Wells of the Yankees 518 00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:13,120 Speaker 1: and Diego Kartzaia of the Dodgers, both those guys at 519 00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:17,400 Speaker 1: double A, and it's again, that's not a perfect match, 520 00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:20,520 Speaker 1: because you'd want somebody that can get his feet wet 521 00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:25,320 Speaker 1: in the majors this year ideally, and ones that you 522 00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:29,200 Speaker 1: feel totally comfortable in defensively, which has been a major 523 00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:32,920 Speaker 1: question for Austin Wells in particular coming up through the 524 00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:37,640 Speaker 1: minor league system, even though he's hit extremely well. So 525 00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:41,080 Speaker 1: the trade route is something that we have to revisit 526 00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:43,680 Speaker 1: a little bit later in the year, and I think 527 00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:48,440 Speaker 1: releasing Stallings outright would be a little a bridge too 528 00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:51,000 Speaker 1: far at this particular moment, that would seem like a 529 00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:56,640 Speaker 1: panic move just considering that the internal next man up 530 00:32:56,760 --> 00:33:01,000 Speaker 1: is not somebody that I'd have dramatically high expectations for. 531 00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:05,640 Speaker 1: The incremental move that the Marlins should be making right 532 00:33:05,720 --> 00:33:10,160 Speaker 1: now is establishing Fortes as the number one guy, because 533 00:33:10,200 --> 00:33:13,320 Speaker 1: right now that's not the case. It is hazy. They 534 00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:17,080 Speaker 1: have been splitting playing time almost directly down the middle 535 00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:22,280 Speaker 1: so far this season, and that just is no longer 536 00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:27,040 Speaker 1: to me a acceptable way to approach this because of 537 00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:31,000 Speaker 1: how doubtful it is that Stallings regains his old form 538 00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:34,600 Speaker 1: after an extended period of struggles, and also just acknowledging 539 00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:37,360 Speaker 1: the contract situation that they're not going to be paying 540 00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:41,600 Speaker 1: him several million dollars to keep him around for twenty 541 00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:44,520 Speaker 1: twenty four. The incremental step is just realizing that he's 542 00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:46,680 Speaker 1: not part of their future and they need to start 543 00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:49,040 Speaker 1: getting some clarity about what they have, if they have 544 00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:52,720 Speaker 1: anything at the catcher position. This has just enough to 545 00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:56,719 Speaker 1: do with Fortes's struggles as Stallings, because Fortes is somebody 546 00:33:57,120 --> 00:33:59,560 Speaker 1: there was so much excitement about him at this time 547 00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:02,400 Speaker 1: one year year ago because of how extremely well if 548 00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:04,600 Speaker 1: he's sitting at the major league level, even with this 549 00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:08,800 Speaker 1: home run on Sunday, he is He's been really terrible 550 00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:12,000 Speaker 1: as a hitter this year, and it was hard to 551 00:34:12,040 --> 00:34:15,479 Speaker 1: see that coming that it was such a big step 552 00:34:15,560 --> 00:34:19,640 Speaker 1: down from where he was even late in twenty twenty two. 553 00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:22,440 Speaker 1: He needs all the reps that he could possibly get 554 00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:24,839 Speaker 1: in order for the Marlins to find out what they 555 00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:27,200 Speaker 1: have in him and to give him the best shot 556 00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:31,440 Speaker 1: to show what he has as a hitter. He's somebody that, 557 00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:35,200 Speaker 1: although he's relatively well rounded as a defensive catcher at 558 00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:39,080 Speaker 1: this stage, he's not somebody that you really want to 559 00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:42,719 Speaker 1: build around unless the bat gets closer to where it 560 00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:46,800 Speaker 1: was in early twenty twenty two. So he should be 561 00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:50,400 Speaker 1: the main guy, and in particular, he should catch Sandy. 562 00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:56,960 Speaker 1: He should be Sandy al Contra's catcher pretty consistently moving forward. 563 00:34:57,440 --> 00:35:01,440 Speaker 1: That would be a shock to the city because Stallings 564 00:35:01,480 --> 00:35:04,040 Speaker 1: has caught every single pitch that Sandy has thrown over 565 00:35:04,080 --> 00:35:06,960 Speaker 1: the last two seasons. We thought there was some sort 566 00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:10,960 Speaker 1: of magic touch, that Stallings had, some great connection that 567 00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:13,840 Speaker 1: those two had. Now you take the overview of it, 568 00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:19,839 Speaker 1: combining Sandy Saygunk twenty two with his mediocre twenty twenty three, 569 00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:24,800 Speaker 1: and his RA when he pitches to Jacob Stallings is 570 00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:30,239 Speaker 1: two point eight four. His RA for his career in 571 00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:33,799 Speaker 1: the major leagues is three point twenty five. That's less 572 00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:39,279 Speaker 1: than half a run difference. I don't think that's statistically significant. 573 00:35:40,520 --> 00:35:44,360 Speaker 1: I don't think there's any magic there, and for that reason, 574 00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:46,799 Speaker 1: they should not be afraid to simply put the better 575 00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:50,040 Speaker 1: player on the field. I think that Fortes should be 576 00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:54,560 Speaker 1: catching almost four times out of every five for this 577 00:35:54,719 --> 00:36:00,640 Speaker 1: Marlins team. I like Stallings specifically receiving Edward Cabrera because Caprera, 578 00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:06,560 Speaker 1: for as wild as he is, he's somebody that he's 579 00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:11,799 Speaker 1: not particularly easy to run against, and he is relatively 580 00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:14,759 Speaker 1: easy to receive because of how much he relies on 581 00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:17,960 Speaker 1: his changeup and how he's changed the use of his 582 00:36:18,080 --> 00:36:21,160 Speaker 1: breaking balls where he now kind of uses his curveball 583 00:36:21,200 --> 00:36:24,160 Speaker 1: to steal strikes more than he does to get chases 584 00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:28,520 Speaker 1: in the dirt. He's somebody that I think is a 585 00:36:28,600 --> 00:36:32,080 Speaker 1: relatively straightforward to catch him, and either he's gonna throw 586 00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:36,480 Speaker 1: strikes or he's not gonna throw strikes. He's but so 587 00:36:36,640 --> 00:36:39,920 Speaker 1: far this year he had his couple wildest games of 588 00:36:39,960 --> 00:36:42,800 Speaker 1: the entire season throwing to fourtes. Things have been a 589 00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:47,200 Speaker 1: little bit better ever since then with Stallings exclusively catching him, 590 00:36:47,440 --> 00:36:49,800 Speaker 1: so I think that could continue. And other than that, 591 00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:52,839 Speaker 1: I'd like Forotes to be in there basically every day 592 00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:57,120 Speaker 1: except for certain day game after night game situations. So 593 00:36:57,239 --> 00:36:59,880 Speaker 1: this is how I have it laid out next twelve games, 594 00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:02,120 Speaker 1: the way that I haven't mocked up. You have Stallings 595 00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:04,880 Speaker 1: catching Edward on Monday, and then I'd have Fortes in 596 00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:11,719 Speaker 1: there for Uri for Sandy that Thursday Maddene Getaway Day 597 00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:14,200 Speaker 1: day game after a night game. I could see you 598 00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:17,120 Speaker 1: going either way, especially with course field, it can wear 599 00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:19,680 Speaker 1: you down physically. Might be hard to do three in 600 00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:22,520 Speaker 1: a row for Fortes in that particular spot, So maybe 601 00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:26,200 Speaker 1: give it to Stallings from there for Fortest catches Zardo, 602 00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:29,040 Speaker 1: Stallings back up again to catch Edward, and then it's 603 00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:32,439 Speaker 1: four test four tes, four test fourtes, with Edward coming 604 00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:35,040 Speaker 1: back only when Eddie is back on the mountains again. 605 00:37:35,440 --> 00:37:39,040 Speaker 1: All things considered, I want that playing time split. Instead 606 00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:41,920 Speaker 1: of being fifty to fifty, I think it should be 607 00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:47,160 Speaker 1: seventy thirty seventy five twenty five. Fortests should be the 608 00:37:47,239 --> 00:37:50,640 Speaker 1: main guy in the way that really, there aren't a 609 00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:52,920 Speaker 1: ton of teams in Major League Baseball that have a 610 00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:56,759 Speaker 1: defined main guy right that a lot of them. It's 611 00:37:56,800 --> 00:38:00,560 Speaker 1: become increasingly popular to split things up more of an 612 00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:03,120 Speaker 1: even time share, but that no longer makes sense for 613 00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:07,880 Speaker 1: this Marlins team because of how precious these opportunities are 614 00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:11,160 Speaker 1: for Fortes to show them what they have, because of, 615 00:38:11,440 --> 00:38:17,800 Speaker 1: ideally because of potentially the scenario where they find themselves 616 00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:21,840 Speaker 1: in the trademarket for a catcher this summer. So you 617 00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:24,600 Speaker 1: want to have as much of a sample as possible 618 00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:29,200 Speaker 1: between now and then from Fortes, ideally with the team winning, 619 00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:31,640 Speaker 1: and ideally with him hitting at the level that he 620 00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:34,920 Speaker 1: did early last year. I think if the overall offensive 621 00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:38,480 Speaker 1: stats for Fortes are at least somewhere in the ballpark 622 00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:42,360 Speaker 1: of where they were for his twenty twenty two season. 623 00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:46,480 Speaker 1: So just to illustrate that for you guys, last year 624 00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:50,239 Speaker 1: slashed two thirty three or four three ninety two, and 625 00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:54,759 Speaker 1: then so far this year he's including today he is 626 00:38:55,719 --> 00:39:02,520 Speaker 1: at hitting to eleven and still slugging below three hundred 627 00:39:02,760 --> 00:39:06,440 Speaker 1: on the year to this point. So that's slugging. You'd 628 00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:08,320 Speaker 1: want to get up about one hundred points, and that 629 00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:10,600 Speaker 1: all base to get up a little bit as well, 630 00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:14,759 Speaker 1: as long as he is somewhere in the ballpark of 631 00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:17,040 Speaker 1: his twenty twenty two form by the time we get 632 00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:23,080 Speaker 1: to the All Star break, that'd be extremely reassuring. I 633 00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:26,560 Speaker 1: just don't see any potential reason at this point to 634 00:39:26,760 --> 00:39:31,360 Speaker 1: be pandering to Stallings, to be treating him as somebody 635 00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:34,800 Speaker 1: that he isn't anymore. He is in the twilight of 636 00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:41,879 Speaker 1: his Marlins career, and the Marlins should accept that move 637 00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:44,680 Speaker 1: forward and just make the best out of what they 638 00:39:44,800 --> 00:39:48,600 Speaker 1: have right now for this team. So this one a 639 00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:50,560 Speaker 1: lot longer than I expected it would. I hope he 640 00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:53,719 Speaker 1: didn't for you a little too much with it. You 641 00:39:53,800 --> 00:39:57,319 Speaker 1: can find me at real Eli on Twitter Eli as 642 00:39:57,360 --> 00:40:00,879 Speaker 1: well as banning the fist Stripes account and the fish 643 00:40:00,920 --> 00:40:02,839 Speaker 1: on First account, we have one for that as well. 644 00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:05,719 Speaker 1: That's where you can find all the audio that we 645 00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:08,400 Speaker 1: produce here on the podcast feed fish on First and 646 00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:10,360 Speaker 1: we have a special playlist of that here on the 647 00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:16,920 Speaker 1: fish Stripes YouTube channel. This is Fortest's position, This should 648 00:40:16,960 --> 00:40:21,239 Speaker 1: be Fortest's position moving forward that I see that with 649 00:40:21,320 --> 00:40:24,400 Speaker 1: a lot of clarity for this team need to do 650 00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:27,359 Speaker 1: something right. We need to do something to keep these 651 00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:32,160 Speaker 1: winning ways going. Yeah, right now, it's a it's kind 652 00:40:32,200 --> 00:40:38,719 Speaker 1: of it's wacky, this catching struggles. There's need to try 653 00:40:38,760 --> 00:40:42,160 Speaker 1: something else here, and I think this is a pretty 654 00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:46,560 Speaker 1: clear cut, potentially a little overdue adjustment for the Marlins 655 00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:50,239 Speaker 1: is make Fortes their main guy to give him the 656 00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:53,560 Speaker 1: opportunity to catch Sandy as well as most of these 657 00:40:53,600 --> 00:40:56,759 Speaker 1: other pitchers in this rotation. So I'm curious if you 658 00:40:56,840 --> 00:41:00,640 Speaker 1: guys feel the same way about it. A whole lot 659 00:41:00,760 --> 00:41:04,920 Speaker 1: going on in games every single day upcoming during this 660 00:41:05,600 --> 00:41:08,319 Speaker 1: marathon road trip for this Marlins team, So a lot 661 00:41:08,360 --> 00:41:10,920 Speaker 1: of coverage and we appreciate you falling along with what 662 00:41:11,040 --> 00:41:14,319 Speaker 1: we do here covering the Marlins at fish strips. I've 663 00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:16,320 Speaker 1: been ela S husband, don't fish