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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman. I am going to be joined

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Speaker 1: today as I am every week by Professional Better Simon Hunter. Simon, boy,

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Speaker 1: do I have a bone to pick with you? It

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Speaker 1: is gonna be contentious and very uncomfortable. So why don't

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Speaker 1: you just get the niceties out of the way, say

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Speaker 1: hello to your fans, and then get ready to defend yourself.

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Speaker 1: Hello fans. A reminder. Last year Professional Better Simon Hunter

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Speaker 1: joined the pod, he offered season long pick up contest

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Speaker 1: advice every single week. This year, we are taking it

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Speaker 1: a step further. He joined the Draft Kings Pro Football

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Speaker 1: pick Up National Championship and every single week we are

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Speaker 1: going to decide together, optimum more together what picks he

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Speaker 1: should put in. He will also offer top nutch inside

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Speaker 1: and how professional betters breakdown games and what they look for,

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Speaker 1: because we're going to talk about every single game every

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Speaker 1: single week. But you will also get lessons in game theory,

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Speaker 1: strategies to outward opponents, etcetera. Here's the recap for last week, Simon,

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Speaker 1: Are you ready? We went two and three in the

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Speaker 1: contest two and three and it was a goddamn gut punch.

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Speaker 1: You know why our listeners may recall that on this podcast,

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Speaker 1: on this very podcast, I have to look at my

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Speaker 1: notebook this very podcast. You and I both decided there

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Speaker 1: were a bunch of teams that we loved. We loved

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Speaker 1: the Chicago Bears that didn't work out. We loved the

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Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins that didn't work out. We love the Baltimore

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Speaker 1: Ravens that one worked out. But we also loved the

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Speaker 1: Philadelphia Eagles, and we loved the Cleveland Browns. And yet

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Speaker 1: yet Sunday morning, I'm getting a text, there's no Browns,

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Speaker 1: there's no Eagles. We got the freaking Jacks, and they

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Speaker 1: also got the Bills, which was nice. The Bills make

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Speaker 1: me wanna what happened. And just so people know online,

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Speaker 1: I'm just trolling people when I said that Chad made

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Speaker 1: me put the Browns, I mean the Bears and over

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Speaker 1: the Browns. Like people think that you you're picking half

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Speaker 1: the slate, and it's it's honestly, it's just a mutual thing.

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Speaker 1: If if if Chad here says he likes the Bears

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Speaker 1: last week and I like them too, we're gonna have

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Speaker 1: him in. If he comes in and says he likes

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Speaker 1: the Dolphins. I think there's good value on that. We'll

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Speaker 1: put it in. They lost, and yeah it hurt, But

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Speaker 1: like Chad didn't make me put those in, I'm with him.

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Speaker 1: I agreed. I thought they were good lines. So, like

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Speaker 1: we talked Sunday morning, we were weighing options and we

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Speaker 1: just didn't feel like dealing with the Browns are the Lions,

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Speaker 1: so we left those two out. With the Eagles, I

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Speaker 1: did believe in it. I liked the number and I

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Speaker 1: had a lot of money on that number and the money,

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Speaker 1: like I talked about on the podcast last week, I

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Speaker 1: really thought that was a good spot for the Eagles.

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Speaker 1: But I out thought it and I thought to myself,

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Speaker 1: for the Jags are coming in here on ten days

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Speaker 1: rest against the team that's been on the road and

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Speaker 1: they're all beat up in the Bengals, And that was

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Speaker 1: on me. I I kind of stopped doubting Burrow Burro,

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Speaker 1: He's just a covering machine. He's four and own now covering,

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Speaker 1: which we talked last week. There's regression coming for a

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Speaker 1: lot of these teams, but it's not happening yet. So

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Speaker 1: it hurt last week. But like I said, if our

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Speaker 1: bad weeks are two and three. We'll be all right

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Speaker 1: as long as we have these winning weeks. And the

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Speaker 1: guy that's leading the competition right now, he's sixteen and four,

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Speaker 1: so we're literally four back of him, so I'm not

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Speaker 1: getting too right yet. If we were below five IB,

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Speaker 1: I'd probably be paniced a little bit right now. But

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Speaker 1: we got some cushion. We were consistent. We don't have

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Speaker 1: we have a bad week, it's not a terrible week,

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Speaker 1: So I'm excited for these next couple of weeks. Here.

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Speaker 1: Like me and you, we both we have a bunch

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Speaker 1: of games we love, and that's the hardest part is

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Speaker 1: getting down to five and not second guests on us

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Speaker 1: on our back our good reads and are bad reads.

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Speaker 1: So we missed on some last week, but that's what

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Speaker 1: this week we'll we'll bounce back alright. As a reminder,

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Speaker 1: as we do every single weekend, we're gonna do this.

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Speaker 1: At the end of this episode two, go to our

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Speaker 1: iTunes page and review the podcast using the phrase are

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Speaker 1: you ready Simon Simon says, I'm sorry. Use the phrase

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Speaker 1: Simon says, I'm sorry, And if we like your review

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Speaker 1: and it's a five star review, we will randomly choose

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Speaker 1: it and you will win a free Action Network pretty

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Speaker 1: We will announce last week's win winner at the end

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Speaker 1: of this show. And it's a doozy, Like it is

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Speaker 1: a doozy as a of a review. It brings in

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Speaker 1: everything that we love. It's got old time references, it's

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Speaker 1: got the catch phrase, the phrase that pays, It's got

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Speaker 1: comments about you, it's it's a bet might take up

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Speaker 1: the whole podcast. Here's the good news. Here's the good news.

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Speaker 1: Simon this Thursday night, as I look at the odds

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Speaker 1: at the Action Network, you can get all the data

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Speaker 1: everything I talk about it on the podcast Action Network app.

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Speaker 1: It's free downloaded Action Network dot com. Go to our

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Speaker 1: odds pages and everything that that everything you need to

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Speaker 1: get all the data, all the information, all the updated lines.

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Speaker 1: All right. Thursday night football, Tom Brady and the Tampa

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Speaker 1: Bay Buccaneers visiting the best three and one team in

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Speaker 1: the history of the NFL, the Chicago Bears. Bears are

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Speaker 1: three point underdogs at home. Let me remind you what

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Speaker 1: is the theory that we always go for that bad

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Speaker 1: teams at home in a short week when they're underdogs.

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Speaker 1: I'm looking at the update of line we got it

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Speaker 1: at five and a half for the Bears at home

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Speaker 1: five and a half, five and a half. Right now,

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Speaker 1: you're right at DraftKings. I apologize. So everyone is backing

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Speaker 1: the Buccaneers and Nick Foles laid a giant egg last week.

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Speaker 1: It's it's hard to defend the Bears because I watched,

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Speaker 1: like we both had that game and I was watching

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Speaker 1: a lot of it, and man, they had so many opportunities.

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Speaker 1: There's so many drop balls, There's just so many things

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Speaker 1: where they would put her out on third down. People

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Speaker 1: are gonna come in here. They're gonna be big, big

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Speaker 1: on the Buccaneers. And if you're you're telling me there's

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Speaker 1: a Thursday night team, a home dog that's got a good,

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Speaker 1: good quarterback, a good defense, and just headed down week

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Speaker 1: last week, I look a little rusty. I'm gonna take

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Speaker 1: the Bears here and I'm gonna take the five and

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Speaker 1: a half and I think by game time, this is

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Speaker 1: this number is gonna go down because I think the

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Speaker 1: sharps wren join me on that. You know what I

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Speaker 1: want to ask you about in this contest? Do we

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Speaker 1: lock in? So if you and I decide, okay, we

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Speaker 1: want to bet the Bears at five and a half.

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Speaker 1: Do we put that pick in now or do we

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Speaker 1: wait until Sunday? And like, how do we end up

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Speaker 1: getting this number? The way they've been doing is like

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Speaker 1: the old school, like the way the Super contest a

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Speaker 1: Circuit does it is it locks in. So after the

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Speaker 1: show or tomorrow morning usually they put the numbers out.

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Speaker 1: So that's why people could like complain they say, oh,

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Speaker 1: I don't get these lines. It's like, well, when we

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Speaker 1: do this show, these are the lines, and when they

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Speaker 1: put those lines out, those are the lines that are

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Speaker 1: on DraftKings, like they might get moved after they put

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Speaker 1: the lines up, but that's that's lowly. The lines we

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Speaker 1: play is the ones a hang when they put the

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Speaker 1: lines out. So I don't know how it works that

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Speaker 1: if we take the Bears. I don't think it would

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Speaker 1: lock in our whole slate. I think we'd still be

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Speaker 1: able to switch other teams in and out, but I'm

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Speaker 1: not sure because we haven't played with Thursday yet and

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Speaker 1: this is my only uh, this is my only ticket

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Speaker 1: in this competition, so it could be Riscue, but we

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Speaker 1: can put that on the side. But I do love

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Speaker 1: this Bear spot so much because in my opinion, Like

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Speaker 1: you said, the number should have been opened at three

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Speaker 1: or three and a half. That's what this game should be.

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Speaker 1: The Buccaneers are looking great. They should be favorite by

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Speaker 1: a field goal on the road here against the team

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Speaker 1: that puttered out last week. But we're getting really good

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Speaker 1: value here on the Bears. Yeah, I agree, we are

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Speaker 1: getting good value on the Bears. And the Bears defense

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Speaker 1: played pretty well. And Philip rivers here while we've been

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Speaker 1: ripping them all season long, like, he did well enough

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Speaker 1: to win that game, obviously, and played significantly better than

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Speaker 1: Nick Foles, who could not hit and out to save

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Speaker 1: his life. He was just so incredibly inaccurate. It was

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Speaker 1: just so frustrating. Wow, can we go in for a

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Speaker 1: Thursday night game? We'll consider that. Here's my other question

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Speaker 1: for you, that is a technical betting question. Right now,

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Speaker 1: do you feel like you're betting these games earlier in

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Speaker 1: the week or are you waiting longer? Our lines moving

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Speaker 1: more aggressively this season are better? Is more aggressive? Like?

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Speaker 1: Tell me about your philosophy here. So say in a

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Speaker 1: normal week, if I have a dred percent of like

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Speaker 1: what I know, I'm gonna bet that week on the

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Speaker 1: table and a normally I always take of that and

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Speaker 1: I'll bet all of that on Sunday and Monday. Those

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Speaker 1: are like the days I try to hit early lines

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Speaker 1: where I'm seeing value, I think the lines are gonna

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Speaker 1: move against it. For this season, I've switched it up

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Speaker 1: where um, I've been waiting for something to happened with

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Speaker 1: the COVID outbreak on the team, so I've been doing

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Speaker 1: a lot more teasers, a lot more to team teasers,

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Speaker 1: three team teasers. Oddly enough, on our last week, all

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Speaker 1: five of our picks hiding teasers. So like a lot

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Speaker 1: of people I talked to, I tell them the plays

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Speaker 1: they just played, two at a time, our picks together

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Speaker 1: and tease them and of course, like they've been hitting

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Speaker 1: for people, I think we only have two games out

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Speaker 1: of all of our picks that haven't hit on teasers

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Speaker 1: so far. I'll do two teamers. I'll do three teamers,

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Speaker 1: and this week depends on the books and off shore

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Speaker 1: books and legalized books. They took down the Chief's bets,

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Speaker 1: so like if I got really good value on the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs at six and a half and I got it

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Speaker 1: down to half a point, where I just took it

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Speaker 1: straight up. A lot of the books took it down

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Speaker 1: or they left the teaser up, but like gave me

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Speaker 1: worse juice. Same at with Pittsburgh I put out early

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Speaker 1: in the week. I like the Pittsburgh. It was like

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Speaker 1: eight and a half with the rams of five and

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Speaker 1: a half in the Bravens I think at five and

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Speaker 1: a half. And they took out the Pittsburgh and they

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Speaker 1: left up my bet with just those two teams in

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Speaker 1: it with the juice. So it's annoying. But they can

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Speaker 1: do that the books because it is technically a change

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Speaker 1: of date and time, and that's in the fine print.

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Speaker 1: Anything you get, it says pretty much of the change

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Speaker 1: the time, the date, the location, we can get rid

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Speaker 1: of the bet. So I'm trying to navigate it, but

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Speaker 1: I'm not putting nearly as much as I used to

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Speaker 1: early in the week. All right, let's get into the uh,

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Speaker 1: let's get into the early games. The first game on

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Speaker 1: the schedule for one o'clock the Bengals plus thirteen and

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Speaker 1: a half at Draft Kings. They are visiting the Ravens.

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Speaker 1: The Ravens who beat the Redskins by fourteen and probably

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Speaker 1: could have beat them by at least. They gave up.

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Speaker 1: They gave up ten garbage points. This is gonna be

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Speaker 1: one of those where like, this is gonna be a

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Speaker 1: public dog since he at this big of a number,

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Speaker 1: most people are at one on Joe Burrow, We're like

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Speaker 1: we talked about earlier. We liked Joe bro He's fun

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Speaker 1: to root for, He's a cool dude. When's it gonna

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Speaker 1: run out on their four and no right now against

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Speaker 1: the spread? So it's a tough spot where like me personally,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna bet the Ravens here and try to fade

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Speaker 1: this rookie QB after winning at home and feeling good

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Speaker 1: all week where the Ravens just usually beat up on

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Speaker 1: crappy teams. It was the same logic last week where

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Speaker 1: I had no problem taking the Ravens and putting them

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Speaker 1: in a lot of parlays and bets together. So this

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Speaker 1: is another week where I'm gonna back the Ravens, and

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Speaker 1: I know we don't like taking these big, these big favorites,

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Speaker 1: so we can put them on the side by I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't hate come game time that we put them in.

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Speaker 1: So that's a tricky number, right because that game we

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Speaker 1: got it a twelve and a half, but by the

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Speaker 1: time it closed. It was at fourteen, so you pushed

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Speaker 1: if you ended up betting on the Ravens against the Redskins.

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Speaker 1: It's like that to the conversation we were just having.

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Speaker 1: You gotta be ready to bet when you see a

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Speaker 1: number that you like and you have a strong opinion.

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Speaker 1: I think I agree with you on this, and I

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Speaker 1: think I agree that I'm looking at the number right now,

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Speaker 1: like there's so much Bengals love, there's so much Joe

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Speaker 1: Burrow love. You almost have to break down who he's

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Speaker 1: done it against, right, and and the Ravens do not

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Speaker 1: play down to the level of their opponent. They play

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Speaker 1: incredibly well and then they got beat by a really

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Speaker 1: good team a couple of weeks ago. I think they

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Speaker 1: can destroy this team. I think they might actually kill

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Speaker 1: Joe Burrow. And I think it's like a another position

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Speaker 1: of the Bangs that if this number was fourteen and

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Speaker 1: a half, fourteen, I'd probably stay away, But if it

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Speaker 1: keeps coming down, people keep betting that we can get

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Speaker 1: it at thirteen twelve and a half, Like you're saying,

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Speaker 1: I don't mind taking that number because that gives us

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Speaker 1: some coverage if there is a chance of weird extra

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Speaker 1: miss like point or A lot of teams are going

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Speaker 1: for two now, so it just gives me more coverage. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's insane. By the way, how many teams are going

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Speaker 1: for two right now, like the Eagles opened up going

253
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Speaker 1: for two. By the way, of the bets so far

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Speaker 1: are on the Cincinnati Bengals, which is astonishing, which means

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Speaker 1: it honestly means, let's hope the number goes down. I'm

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Speaker 1: not gonna bet that. Yeah, I'm gonna wait for it

257
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Speaker 1: to go down a little right. We might get a

258
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Speaker 1: little lucky on that one. The Eagles going for two,

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Speaker 1: you know, right out of the gate the other night.

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Speaker 1: That just felt like Doug Peterson knows his team is

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Speaker 1: in dire straits. They got to get points on the board.

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Speaker 1: They got to get some confidence going. That's a guy

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Speaker 1: who's comfortable in his job and he's like, just screw it.

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Speaker 1: Let's let's be the best we can be right now.

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Speaker 1: But it is amazing how aggressive teams are being, how

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Speaker 1: much more often teams are going for and forth. There

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Speaker 1: is never a game that I'm I'm spewing everything that's

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Speaker 1: in my head right now. There's never a game that

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Speaker 1: it feels like your cover is safe. I've been doing

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Speaker 1: these bets for a long time. But you can bet

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Speaker 1: on a lot of sites for the first half. You

272
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Speaker 1: can bet if it's gonna be a tie, or you

273
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Speaker 1: can pick each side money line. Could you get better

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Speaker 1: odds on the money line. I've been doing that a

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Speaker 1: lot because a lot of times these teams are going

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Speaker 1: with weird numbers and missed extra points. That you can

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Speaker 1: cover these money lines by one point, like I did

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Speaker 1: with the Eagles in that game for the first half.

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Speaker 1: So that's something to be on the lookout for betting.

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Speaker 1: You can get good value on betting news. Second game

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Speaker 1: Panthers at Falcons. Falcons played last night, got beat up again.

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Speaker 1: They are it looks like three point favorites at home.

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Speaker 1: Mm hmm. It almost feels like a trap to me.

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Speaker 1: You know, I hate betting the Falcons, and I bet him.

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Speaker 1: I bet him Tuesday afternoon, I bet him last night

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Speaker 1: against the Packers. You know, I hate betting the Falcons,

287
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Speaker 1: and we've loved betting the Panthers so far this year.

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Speaker 1: But this feels a little bit trappy in me. I'm

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Speaker 1: walking too a fucking hornet's nest, all right, now, be

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Speaker 1: my companion yeah, it was good. Last week we talked

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Speaker 1: to the pot we had like the Cardinals, and as

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Speaker 1: a week went on, of course, my guys from Vegas

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Speaker 1: reach out and they go, you're stepping in it. I go,

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Speaker 1: all right, let me look at it again, and and

295
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Speaker 1: you do. Look at the numbers and the Cardinals they're offense.

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Speaker 1: I went back and I watched a bunch of their

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Speaker 1: games from weeks thirteen to seventeen. Last week. You can

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Speaker 1: see how they're doing weird. I don't know why he's

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Speaker 1: doing it, but he's throwing everything underneath underneath. Now they're

300
00:14:15,280 --> 00:14:18,280
Speaker 1: not really pushing it downfield. The run scheme is weird

301
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Speaker 1: in the sentence that he's running on downs like first

302
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Speaker 1: down all the time, which he wasn't really doing last year.

303
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Speaker 1: He was taking hypercentage downfield throws on first down the

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Speaker 1: Carolina that was definitely the right side. As we saw

305
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Speaker 1: the number kept coming down, we got scared off of it.

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Speaker 1: We moved off Carolina the Cardinals last week. So this

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Speaker 1: week the Panthers are now two straight wins on a

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Speaker 1: team that we know their defense isn't that good. They've

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Speaker 1: they've been playing well, but they're young and Quinn still

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Speaker 1: isn't fired, and the number was weird. We're opened at

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Speaker 1: three and a half, and I knew everyone's gonna be

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Speaker 1: on that number, so I was like, I'm just gonna

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Speaker 1: wait that the Falcon, especially after last night's loss. So

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Speaker 1: I would be with you here. I would take the Falcons,

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00:14:56,160 --> 00:14:57,680
Speaker 1: but I would have to wait and see what the

316
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Speaker 1: deals with Julio because he went out last night. I

317
00:15:00,240 --> 00:15:02,760
Speaker 1: think he had like ten snaps or something like that

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Speaker 1: and he was done. And I don't know Calvin Ridley.

319
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Speaker 1: I love the kid, but he just he was gone

320
00:15:08,280 --> 00:15:09,760
Speaker 1: last night. He didn't do anything, and it makes me

321
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Speaker 1: a little nervous where he could be taken away, and

322
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Speaker 1: then what are we left with on the Falcons and

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Speaker 1: old Todd Gurley and a third receiver and Hurst that

324
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Speaker 1: tight end. So we can wait on that number. But

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Speaker 1: I do like the Falcons here. Yeah. Well there's a

326
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Speaker 1: couple of things here right. Number one a reminder if

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Speaker 1: you ever want to have job security, just go work

328
00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:30,040
Speaker 1: at home depot, because if Arthur Blank hasn't fired Dan

329
00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:32,720
Speaker 1: Quinn at this point, like, think of what you would

330
00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:34,480
Speaker 1: have to do at home depot to get fired. I

331
00:15:34,520 --> 00:15:37,040
Speaker 1: can't even imagine. We'll continue that theme throughout the year

332
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Speaker 1: until dan Quinn has actually let go number one. Number two.

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Speaker 1: Julio Jones did not look good. He was limping around.

334
00:15:43,680 --> 00:15:45,840
Speaker 1: I don't even they were bringing scrubs off the street

335
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Speaker 1: in the middle of the game to play against Aaron

336
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Speaker 1: Rodgers in the defensive backfield. That was terrible. Calvin Ridley

337
00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:54,080
Speaker 1: is very much on the path to being the Matt

338
00:15:54,160 --> 00:15:56,400
Speaker 1: Ryan of wide receivers. And what I mean by that

339
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Speaker 1: is he is a guy who only racks up big

340
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Speaker 1: numbers in games that don't mean anything, in times that

341
00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:05,600
Speaker 1: don't mean anything except they look amazing at the end

342
00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:07,680
Speaker 1: of the game. He is like going to go down

343
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Speaker 1: as the greatest Fantasy receiver of all time. So let's

344
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Speaker 1: stay away from that game for now, and let's wait

345
00:16:12,720 --> 00:16:15,480
Speaker 1: even then, even when the number gets good, we don't

346
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Speaker 1: want any part of that game. I'm with you. Uh,

347
00:16:19,080 --> 00:16:21,360
Speaker 1: let's see, Bill's Titans is not on the board yet.

348
00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:23,760
Speaker 1: We just don't know what's going on with the Titans.

349
00:16:23,760 --> 00:16:26,400
Speaker 1: We have good signs, a lot of negative tests, but

350
00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:29,200
Speaker 1: there's no uh, there's no number. So then we get

351
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Speaker 1: Las Vegas Raiders visiting the Kansas City Chiefs one PM

352
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Speaker 1: in Kansas City, three games in eleven days for the

353
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Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs that have a horrendous rushing defense going

354
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Speaker 1: up against Josh Jacobs, a tremendous passing defense against Derrek Carr,

355
00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:52,320
Speaker 1: who's he's done okay this year? Yeah, and you do.

356
00:16:52,800 --> 00:16:55,400
Speaker 1: I think it's it's one of these every year. I

357
00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:58,680
Speaker 1: always take the Raiders in the spot against my homes

358
00:16:58,680 --> 00:17:00,840
Speaker 1: because it's always a big number like this, and I

359
00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:04,119
Speaker 1: never recover. I might want a blue moon, but it's

360
00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:08,160
Speaker 1: not profitable taking teams against the Chiefs. And like last night,

361
00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:10,199
Speaker 1: I stared at that minus eleven and a half for

362
00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:13,080
Speaker 1: about an hour and I just said, all right, screw it.

363
00:17:13,080 --> 00:17:14,960
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna do the adjusted line and just bring

364
00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:16,800
Speaker 1: it down to six because I was just so scared

365
00:17:16,800 --> 00:17:18,639
Speaker 1: of Bilichick and how big of a number it was.

366
00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:23,200
Speaker 1: And I can't take the Chiefs here where Derek Carr like, yeah,

367
00:17:23,240 --> 00:17:25,440
Speaker 1: I know he didn't look great last week, but when

368
00:17:25,480 --> 00:17:28,440
Speaker 1: they're when they're healthy on offense, they're good and he's

369
00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:31,440
Speaker 1: not turning the ball over. The public is all gonna

370
00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:34,280
Speaker 1: probably end up on this Vegas number because it is

371
00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:38,600
Speaker 1: so big, and the Raiders hadn't looked terrible like last week.

372
00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:40,000
Speaker 1: I know you can think they looked terrible. They just

373
00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:41,800
Speaker 1: had injuries and it was just one of those where

374
00:17:41,880 --> 00:17:44,560
Speaker 1: snowball and like they went three and now Josh Allen

375
00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:46,399
Speaker 1: just taking down the field and score. So the Bills

376
00:17:46,400 --> 00:17:49,840
Speaker 1: are just humming. So we're gonna stay away from this one.

377
00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:52,560
Speaker 1: But I'll probably end up on the Raiders and hate myself.

378
00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:54,840
Speaker 1: What would it take you to bet the Chiefs here?

379
00:17:55,240 --> 00:17:57,240
Speaker 1: So like I had this in minus ten, so like

380
00:17:57,280 --> 00:17:59,240
Speaker 1: I would have taken the Chiefs if it was anything

381
00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:01,639
Speaker 1: around there this number, like, I don't mind taking the

382
00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:04,160
Speaker 1: Chiefs here. It's under two touchdowns and we've seen how

383
00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:06,560
Speaker 1: for these good teams, as long as you're under fourteen,

384
00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:08,479
Speaker 1: it's been all and true, and a lot of these

385
00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:10,520
Speaker 1: teams don't have them beginning back door. That's at that

386
00:18:10,560 --> 00:18:13,040
Speaker 1: big of a number. But just like with the Rams

387
00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:16,320
Speaker 1: last week, it makes me a little nervous taking these

388
00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:20,080
Speaker 1: big numbers against teams where they have a competable offense,

389
00:18:20,119 --> 00:18:22,760
Speaker 1: like the Raiders. They can score, So it just makes

390
00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:25,560
Speaker 1: me a little nervous on that number, that big. Yeah,

391
00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:28,240
Speaker 1: what is your number on the Bengals Ravens And what

392
00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:31,320
Speaker 1: is your number on the Bears box. So the Bears Bucks,

393
00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:33,640
Speaker 1: I had it at three, I had Tampa minus three,

394
00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:36,480
Speaker 1: and with the Ravens, I got it again at minus fourteen.

395
00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:38,480
Speaker 1: That's the only thing that makes nurse with the Ravens,

396
00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:40,119
Speaker 1: They're they're kind of getting me. They're trapping me in

397
00:18:40,160 --> 00:18:42,320
Speaker 1: there with that thirteen and a half. It's like, oh,

398
00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:44,399
Speaker 1: that's really nice to them give me that. So it

399
00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:46,840
Speaker 1: makes me a little nervous with that one. All right,

400
00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:50,960
Speaker 1: Eagles visiting the Steelers, stealers getting back on the field.

401
00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:54,360
Speaker 1: They are getting a lot of the bets. They're more

402
00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:56,879
Speaker 1: than touchdown favorite seven seven and a half getting a

403
00:18:56,880 --> 00:18:59,680
Speaker 1: lot of the bets right now, which makes sense like

404
00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:03,639
Speaker 1: people not yet buying into the Eagles, which which I

405
00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:05,800
Speaker 1: can believe. Let me see if I have an opinion

406
00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:09,680
Speaker 1: on this. Do I have a snap opinion on this game? Yes,

407
00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:11,680
Speaker 1: give me the Steelers and this is given me a

408
00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:14,880
Speaker 1: Joe's versus pros. This is like classic where the Steelers

409
00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:17,800
Speaker 1: are healthy, they just had a bye week. Eagles whole

410
00:19:17,840 --> 00:19:20,720
Speaker 1: offensive line has pretty much been replaced there at one point,

411
00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:23,280
Speaker 1: they're the only start they had left was the center.

412
00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:26,119
Speaker 1: So I can't not take the Eagles here at seven

413
00:19:26,119 --> 00:19:28,520
Speaker 1: and a half, and it's just such a letdown game

414
00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:31,800
Speaker 1: for the Steelers where they've had a week off. They're

415
00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:34,240
Speaker 1: gonna come out slow and and it's gonna come down

416
00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:36,320
Speaker 1: to the very end. And I could see the Steelers

417
00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:39,240
Speaker 1: covering seven. But I love the I love the extra

418
00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:43,439
Speaker 1: hook with the seven a half with the Eagles. No, no, no,

419
00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:46,679
Speaker 1: here's why this game probably should have been. If the

420
00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:50,040
Speaker 1: Steelers had played this past week, they're beating the Titans,

421
00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:53,720
Speaker 1: that's just me saying it. They'd be a much bigger

422
00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:56,400
Speaker 1: favorite over the Eagles at this point. And I feel

423
00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:59,119
Speaker 1: like you're you're getting a little bit of value, like

424
00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:01,760
Speaker 1: on the Steelers because the Eagles finally won a game

425
00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:04,399
Speaker 1: and it was in prime time and they beat up

426
00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:06,680
Speaker 1: on the Niners. You should what's your number here? You

427
00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:10,359
Speaker 1: should make this number nine. That's what it should be. No, honestly,

428
00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:11,800
Speaker 1: I had it at four and a half, and then

429
00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:14,840
Speaker 1: after the injuries to the Eagles on the Sunday night game,

430
00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:18,439
Speaker 1: I moved into six. I'm with you, like, this doesn't

431
00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:21,159
Speaker 1: easy to play. The Steelers should kill these guys, But

432
00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:23,480
Speaker 1: are like, are we still? Are we sure the Steelers

433
00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:25,840
Speaker 1: are good? Like? Who have they played, go through who

434
00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:28,359
Speaker 1: have they played. So that's one of those where I'm

435
00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:30,119
Speaker 1: gonna back to Eagles here and think I need to

436
00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:32,440
Speaker 1: see the Steelers prove it to me. They're not playing

437
00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:35,320
Speaker 1: the Giants, they're not playing Houston, they're not playing these

438
00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:37,480
Speaker 1: teams that we have already seen. They're not that good.

439
00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:39,080
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna back to the Eagles here, and I'm

440
00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:41,800
Speaker 1: gonna let the public come in on the Steelers. All right, fin,

441
00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:45,200
Speaker 1: We'll take the Eagles. I just want to make the money.

442
00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:48,800
Speaker 1: I want to make the money. I don't have pride

443
00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:51,800
Speaker 1: of authorship here. I got opinions. If you tell me

444
00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:54,400
Speaker 1: I'm wrong, we're gonna go in the other direction. That's

445
00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:57,879
Speaker 1: all there is to it. Boy. The Rams, man, I

446
00:20:58,000 --> 00:20:59,920
Speaker 1: knew the Giants were the right side of that game

447
00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:02,800
Speaker 1: the other day, and I let somebody else talk me

448
00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:05,320
Speaker 1: into taking the Rams, and I'm like, well, this is

449
00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:08,000
Speaker 1: just dumb. Like the Rams are not the Chiefs, they're

450
00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:09,960
Speaker 1: not the Ravens, they're not the team that you can

451
00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:12,920
Speaker 1: bet a big number against. And sure enough, it's exactly

452
00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:17,800
Speaker 1: what happened. And now they're visiting Washington. The Washington football

453
00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:21,359
Speaker 1: team looks like they are at draft Kings eight and

454
00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:25,000
Speaker 1: a half point favorites. What's your number here, Yeah, it

455
00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:27,520
Speaker 1: seems like the publics with you. I had this game

456
00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:30,840
Speaker 1: at seven for the Rams. It opened at nine and

457
00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:34,360
Speaker 1: a half with the football team, and basically people back

458
00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:38,199
Speaker 1: in Washington or I think they're still believing in Haskins

459
00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:41,160
Speaker 1: and that they could keep this close. That the Rams

460
00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:42,639
Speaker 1: aren't as good as people think they are, and that

461
00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:45,440
Speaker 1: like that Giants game was just funky, Like it was

462
00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:47,320
Speaker 1: the same thing with Nick Foles. Nick Foles and missed

463
00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:49,280
Speaker 1: some wide open guys, so is golf. Golf was just

464
00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:51,680
Speaker 1: off in that game. So I'm gonna bet on a

465
00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:54,000
Speaker 1: bounce back spot here and keep fading the football team.

466
00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:56,040
Speaker 1: I'll take the Rams hopefully gets the seven. So like

467
00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:57,640
Speaker 1: a good value, but it's at seven and a half

468
00:21:57,720 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 1: right now, so we might want to put the Rams

469
00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:02,880
Speaker 1: in our list. Yeah, especially if the line keeps coming down.

470
00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:06,080
Speaker 1: Just for everything I've seen from Washington, they're they're banged

471
00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:07,720
Speaker 1: up on their interier and you can run on them.

472
00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:09,800
Speaker 1: And that's like the same reason I like the Rams

473
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:11,520
Speaker 1: last week. They are running teams, so if you can

474
00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:13,480
Speaker 1: get if they get a turner on the ground, that's

475
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:15,960
Speaker 1: when golf really takes off. So I'm gonna back them

476
00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:19,120
Speaker 1: here in this take this number, even though it's it's high.

477
00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:20,840
Speaker 1: It's a high number to be back in the Rams

478
00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:24,040
Speaker 1: on the road with especially coming across country. Let's wait

479
00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:26,120
Speaker 1: and see if it comes down a little bit. Yeah,

480
00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:29,240
Speaker 1: let's do that on Sunday morning. You and me, two

481
00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:33,000
Speaker 1: adults in partnership. Together, we're gonna make a collective decision

482
00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:36,159
Speaker 1: about whether or not the Rams or the Eagles end

483
00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:39,639
Speaker 1: up making our top five. I need another opinion. What

484
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:42,239
Speaker 1: is your take on the rams new uniforms. I like them,

485
00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:46,000
Speaker 1: buying said, I've liked the Chargers uniforms better. Uh like

486
00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:49,600
Speaker 1: gone back to the classic the powder blues. So it's

487
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:52,040
Speaker 1: it's tough competition with them there. But I don't hate

488
00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:53,919
Speaker 1: I know people hate on the logo. I don't mind it.

489
00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:56,120
Speaker 1: I like it all. I think their uniforms look great.

490
00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:58,280
Speaker 1: I think the new color blue in the helmet looks great.

491
00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 1: I actually think the logo is fine. I'm a fan,

492
00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:03,439
Speaker 1: but it's becoming a contentious conversation in my house with

493
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:07,679
Speaker 1: my fifteen year old son on who's you know running

494
00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:13,240
Speaker 1: the uniform code? Here? Cardinals visiting the New York Jets

495
00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:16,600
Speaker 1: six and a half point favorites. I mean, this is

496
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:19,320
Speaker 1: a stay away from me. It's it's Kyler Murray. You

497
00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:22,400
Speaker 1: mentioned it earlier. He's kind of running around a lot

498
00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:24,720
Speaker 1: and seems to have lost some of the mojo that

499
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:26,800
Speaker 1: made us so excited when he was a fourteen to one,

500
00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:29,159
Speaker 1: you know, when the odds were fourteen to one for

501
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:31,280
Speaker 1: him to win the m v P. He did not

502
00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:35,320
Speaker 1: look good this past week against a very bad Lions team. Yeah,

503
00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:37,640
Speaker 1: and I know Vegas, they're trying to scare me off again.

504
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:41,080
Speaker 1: I'm done being scared by them versus Jets team. I'm done.

505
00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:42,920
Speaker 1: I will take for the rest of the year. I

506
00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:44,959
Speaker 1: will take whatever team they're going against. I don't care

507
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:47,520
Speaker 1: if it's the most public player of the week. I'm

508
00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:50,960
Speaker 1: done with the Jets everything I've seen. They're poorly coached.

509
00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:53,920
Speaker 1: Even when they're not giving up first downs on defense,

510
00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:56,080
Speaker 1: they're giving it up because they do stupid penalties. I

511
00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:59,080
Speaker 1: can't take the Jets anymore, so I don't care if

512
00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:01,159
Speaker 1: it's a trap. I'm gonna the Cardinals give it to

513
00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:05,000
Speaker 1: me six and a half. I'm happy with it. Yeah,

514
00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:07,040
Speaker 1: we keep out of competition because it's such a trap,

515
00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:10,160
Speaker 1: but I'm betting it. Well, here's a question for you.

516
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:13,080
Speaker 1: Do you feel like you bet every game? It's like

517
00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:15,720
Speaker 1: it depends on the games, like like I talked about earlier,

518
00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:17,520
Speaker 1: like in Jersey. Now, that's why I think it's the

519
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:20,199
Speaker 1: mecca of gambling. We have like twenty one or twenty

520
00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:22,320
Speaker 1: two apps on your phone you can do now, and

521
00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:24,560
Speaker 1: I can drive across the bridge and use another twelve

522
00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:27,480
Speaker 1: or thirteen apps and p a. So like I gave

523
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:29,600
Speaker 1: about a bet last night on Twitter that I thought

524
00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:32,160
Speaker 1: was really safe. I probably did that on the bet

525
00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:34,639
Speaker 1: I gave out. Probably did on fifteen sites, and then

526
00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:36,440
Speaker 1: I went across the bridge. I did on tent sites.

527
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:38,280
Speaker 1: So I'll just put a thousand on each one and

528
00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:40,679
Speaker 1: spread it around instead of just going on one setting

529
00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:43,040
Speaker 1: loading up and pop it up on their radar. Because

530
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:45,440
Speaker 1: the more you win the books, they're gonna beat you off.

531
00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:47,399
Speaker 1: They're they're here to win. So that's what I do.

532
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:49,480
Speaker 1: I just really spread it around. But when it comes

533
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:52,879
Speaker 1: to every game and betting, it's like it's small. Certain

534
00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 1: games like I barely even touch and I could be

535
00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:57,359
Speaker 1: dead wrong and be like mad at myself that I

536
00:24:57,359 --> 00:24:58,840
Speaker 1: had a perfect read in the game, but I'll just

537
00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:01,440
Speaker 1: stay away because it's things don't trust, Like that Houston

538
00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:04,560
Speaker 1: and uh Vikings game last week. I might have had

539
00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:07,000
Speaker 1: like total in that game because I didn't want to

540
00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:09,360
Speaker 1: even touch it. So there's certain games we're all I'll

541
00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:11,400
Speaker 1: bet on it just because then my system says there's

542
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:12,760
Speaker 1: value there, and I just always want to make a

543
00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:15,640
Speaker 1: little profit here in there. But yeah, it's it's very

544
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:17,720
Speaker 1: different where one game might be one percent and over

545
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 1: the game might be of my bank roll. So it fluctuates,

546
00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:23,520
Speaker 1: all right. So last night you just said that you

547
00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:27,199
Speaker 1: went around and out about fifteen or apps got a

548
00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 1: thousand dollars each on the same game. It was a parlay,

549
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:32,879
Speaker 1: so I didn't uh, I took the Chiefs down to

550
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:35,439
Speaker 1: five and a half and I took Green Bay up

551
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:38,600
Speaker 1: to four and a half. So I paid anywhere from

552
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:41,920
Speaker 1: minus like the minus one fifty depending on the site.

553
00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:44,240
Speaker 1: So like what time I got the line at, Like, yeah,

554
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:46,760
Speaker 1: I'm cool with putting a lot on that because in

555
00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:48,680
Speaker 1: my system, like when I put the numbers in, the

556
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:51,399
Speaker 1: Chiefs not covering that by six points only had a

557
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:55,040
Speaker 1: five percent chance of happening. The Green Bay losing by

558
00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:57,159
Speaker 1: more than four and a half points last night had

559
00:25:57,200 --> 00:25:59,199
Speaker 1: less than a three percent chance of happening. So like,

560
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:00,800
Speaker 1: when I do those big bets, it's because I'm just

561
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:03,359
Speaker 1: playing percentage that we're saying, you're getting crazy good value

562
00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:06,119
Speaker 1: here alternating these lines. That's why I'll take that value.

563
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:08,159
Speaker 1: But like every week, I don't really load up on

564
00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:09,879
Speaker 1: bets like that, Like I like to spread it around

565
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:11,639
Speaker 1: just in case I am reading it room. But then

566
00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:14,679
Speaker 1: you ended up having like a huge chunk of change

567
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 1: on those games last night, even if the odds weren't

568
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 1: that great mine fifty, but then you made a freak

569
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:23,520
Speaker 1: load of money last night. Yeah, I try to. Like

570
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:26,120
Speaker 1: people were saying that, they're like, oh, they're like, I'm strucked.

571
00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:27,840
Speaker 1: You do like the juice I hire the big dig

572
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:30,399
Speaker 1: and it's like if I think I'm gonna win and

573
00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:32,199
Speaker 1: it's like crazy good value. Like if you come to

574
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:34,200
Speaker 1: me and you said, hey, this team's money lines minus

575
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:37,320
Speaker 1: two hundred zero chance they lose, I'll ride with you.

576
00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:39,239
Speaker 1: If it's like a great read and I agree with it,

577
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:41,879
Speaker 1: Like I don't mind putting I don't know two thousand

578
00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:43,679
Speaker 1: out and one a thousand, that's no problem with me

579
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:46,400
Speaker 1: as long as the winner, because I bet so many

580
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:49,359
Speaker 1: dogs and money lines that it just eats away at

581
00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:52,400
Speaker 1: the juice of these numbers, especially long term. It's it's

582
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:54,320
Speaker 1: one of those things I don't like mine because people

583
00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:56,359
Speaker 1: always ask me why I don't buy points. I don't

584
00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 1: buy points because that's stupid way to lose money on

585
00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:00,439
Speaker 1: a big like instead of me, loo isn't a bed

586
00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:02,720
Speaker 1: where I took whoever plus three and a half or

587
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:04,920
Speaker 1: minus three and a half and buying it down to three,

588
00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:06,960
Speaker 1: I just lose that one tent or one fifteen like

589
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:09,879
Speaker 1: those do add up. That's why you should never buy numbers.

590
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:12,120
Speaker 1: You should just play the number as is. Yeah. Look,

591
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:14,919
Speaker 1: money management and sort of how to shop is one

592
00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:17,600
Speaker 1: of the most important things you can think about. Is better. Uh,

593
00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:21,600
Speaker 1: It's something that we talk about constantly at Action Network.

594
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:25,000
Speaker 1: We have so many tools that make you think about that.

595
00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:28,120
Speaker 1: Our our entire site, our entire app is set up

596
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:31,240
Speaker 1: to give betters in legal states the best opportunity to

597
00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:34,480
Speaker 1: shop for the best lines that are available everywhere. Right,

598
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:37,200
Speaker 1: And like we talk all the time, you have the power,

599
00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:39,480
Speaker 1: you have the control. So when I'm on here saying

600
00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:41,720
Speaker 1: I'm been every game don't get it wrong. And there's

601
00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:44,399
Speaker 1: games I load up on. That's what makes me money,

602
00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:46,399
Speaker 1: is like I don't have the bed. The five games

603
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:48,200
Speaker 1: were picked in this contest. I could just load it

604
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:50,879
Speaker 1: up on the Bills and the Ravens. I had a

605
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:53,520
Speaker 1: great weekend. So it's one of those where you pick

606
00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:56,159
Speaker 1: and choose your spots and you that's why it's so

607
00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 1: important to have a system or something, because when you

608
00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 1: see these big number discrepancies, gives you so much confidence

609
00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:03,560
Speaker 1: in making those bets, where if you don't, you've just

610
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:06,200
Speaker 1: been the same unit every week. It's really hard to

611
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:08,520
Speaker 1: grind out those wins because every week you're gonna have

612
00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 1: bad weeks and you're not gonna have that many good ones.

613
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:12,679
Speaker 1: So you really have to pick and choose people, all right.

614
00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:14,800
Speaker 1: So we're passing on the Jets in the Cardinals. I'm

615
00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:17,800
Speaker 1: looking at the next game here it's the Jags visiting

616
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:23,240
Speaker 1: the Bill O'Brien less Texas. Last night last night, my uh,

617
00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:25,520
Speaker 1: my thirteen year old, we were watching the games and

618
00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:30,480
Speaker 1: he went to, uh the NFL memes handle on Instagram

619
00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:34,440
Speaker 1: and it was one of those four boxes. Yeah, it's

620
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:38,440
Speaker 1: so cool when dudes stand in front of the stuff

621
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:42,480
Speaker 1: they've destroyed, and it's got like, you know, Will Smith

622
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:45,200
Speaker 1: in front of something he's destroyed, and then it's got

623
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:47,440
Speaker 1: Bill O'Brien standing in front of the Texans a level.

624
00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 1: I don't even want to tell you how much money

625
00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 1: I lost, But I had three head coaches I bet

626
00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:53,960
Speaker 1: big on to be fired and it worked out where

627
00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:55,120
Speaker 1: I just needed one of them to hit and I

628
00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 1: was gonna make a nice little profit. And it was

629
00:28:57,400 --> 00:28:59,160
Speaker 1: so stupid. I mean not to look at the schedule

630
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 1: and say, this guy, I'd start owing three on four

631
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:03,160
Speaker 1: and he'll get fired. But I just didn't think like

632
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:05,120
Speaker 1: the guy who's been letting the owner has been letting him,

633
00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 1: like burn his team down, creating all their draft picks

634
00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:10,120
Speaker 1: and their best players away, and he never stepped in.

635
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:12,600
Speaker 1: So I was like, no, there's no way Bill O'Brien

636
00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 1: gets fired. And man, was I wrong, But you put

637
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:18,120
Speaker 1: the money. I have a ton on Gaze, I have

638
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:21,320
Speaker 1: a ton on Quinn. Last of all, I had a

639
00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 1: bunch of McCarthy for the Cowboys. Yeah, because I really

640
00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:26,720
Speaker 1: thought earlier in the year, I was like, man if

641
00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:29,239
Speaker 1: if Jerry, if they started bad, Jerry is gonna get

642
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:31,000
Speaker 1: rid of him. Quick and just give the keys to

643
00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:33,600
Speaker 1: Kellen Moore. And it's been going as playing. The offenses

644
00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 1: look great and the rest of the team's from crap.

645
00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:37,600
Speaker 1: But I don't think I don't think it matters now

646
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:40,160
Speaker 1: because I already lost that. But but yeah, for this game.

647
00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 1: I like back in teams I just fired their head coaches.

648
00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:45,640
Speaker 1: It's usually one of those where the team bounced back

649
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:48,560
Speaker 1: like they hated the coach. They feel more freedom, they

650
00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 1: feel more loose. The coordinators taken over, and from what

651
00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:54,000
Speaker 1: we've seen from the Jags, they've been letting us down

652
00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:57,320
Speaker 1: that last week, that was a prime game that at

653
00:29:57,360 --> 00:29:59,600
Speaker 1: worst we should have covered that plus three and a half.

654
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:02,480
Speaker 1: It came on the second half just flat and they

655
00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:05,240
Speaker 1: got bullied. And I'm looking at it here where it's

656
00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:07,840
Speaker 1: down to six and a half now for Houston and

657
00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:10,320
Speaker 1: the majority of the public bets are coming in on

658
00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:13,000
Speaker 1: the Jags, So that gives you even more confidence that

659
00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:15,240
Speaker 1: Houston is probably going to be the right side this week.

660
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:16,840
Speaker 1: And that's a really good number to take with them

661
00:30:16,880 --> 00:30:20,120
Speaker 1: six and a half. Why do we like teams after

662
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:24,000
Speaker 1: they fired their coaches? I agree with you. I always

663
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:27,040
Speaker 1: love teams after they fire their coaches. I should go

664
00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 1: into our bet labs and figure out, like what the

665
00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:34,080
Speaker 1: the precedent, historical precedent is on how teams do against

666
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 1: the spread the week that they fired their coaches. But like,

667
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:39,240
Speaker 1: new quarterbacks and new coaches always give me a little

668
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:42,200
Speaker 1: bit of a pause betting against I'm with you on that.

669
00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:43,760
Speaker 1: I don't know the exact numbers, but I feel like

670
00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:45,800
Speaker 1: that's just something embedded in the gamblers. It's like, oh,

671
00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:49,280
Speaker 1: a new head coach, take it. So I'm with you,

672
00:30:49,880 --> 00:30:53,680
Speaker 1: all right. Dolphins visiting the Niners. Dolphins look like eight

673
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 1: point underdogs. Boy boy boy, oh boy man, Like we've

674
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 1: put a lot behind Ryan Fitzpatrick's by this year. Real fits, magic, magic, matchic.

675
00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:13,440
Speaker 1: We have invested emotionally, we have invested spiritually, and we

676
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 1: have invested financially. And they don't have the same sort

677
00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:20,479
Speaker 1: of edge that they had last year. Like the value

678
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:22,840
Speaker 1: is certainly not there that it was that was their

679
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:27,120
Speaker 1: last year. But eight points against this forty Niners team,

680
00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:31,560
Speaker 1: there we go say that's value. It is. I hate

681
00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:33,520
Speaker 1: being the guy that's like, oh, we got unlucky on

682
00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 1: our beds last week, but it's like, how are you

683
00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 1: going to kick four field goals against Russell Wilson. What

684
00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:42,760
Speaker 1: are we doing here? If if my team is in

685
00:31:42,800 --> 00:31:45,480
Speaker 1: the red zone, I'm playing Russell Wilson. I'm either going

686
00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:47,400
Speaker 1: for it on fourth down to keep trying to get

687
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:49,520
Speaker 1: touchdowns or I'm gonna just give it back to him

688
00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:53,080
Speaker 1: because three points does nothing against this guy. It was brutal.

689
00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:55,800
Speaker 1: He's he ripped our soul last week, Russell Wilson, because

690
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:58,440
Speaker 1: the they had that, they had that back door all

691
00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 1: lined up Miami and he just put a bomb down

692
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:03,480
Speaker 1: the field and went down the field and scored and

693
00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:06,120
Speaker 1: our touchow. I'll go no, I'm Russell Wilson. I'm going

694
00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 1: for m VP this year. You're not getting no backdoor

695
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:11,240
Speaker 1: on me. So I would back Miami. I like that number.

696
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 1: That's a big number. I know that they could be

697
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:15,560
Speaker 1: run on and that's what the four nineers do really good.

698
00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:17,840
Speaker 1: But just like what we saw with the Eagles, there's

699
00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:20,640
Speaker 1: just too many replacements, like yeah, kidlet Mike kill us,

700
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 1: and that's gonna hurt. We know what it is with

701
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:26,400
Speaker 1: fits Magic, he's gonna have down weeks, he's up up weeks.

702
00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 1: So I'll take this big number and I'll back the Dolphins.

703
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:31,520
Speaker 1: But we can put them aside and don't have to

704
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:33,680
Speaker 1: put them in right now for a competition. We'll make

705
00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:36,120
Speaker 1: a question about that. Do you feel like watching some

706
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:38,400
Speaker 1: of these games and this This was definitely true on

707
00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 1: Sunday in the last two minutes of the first half.

708
00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:47,640
Speaker 1: I felt like maybe four games had garbage points in

709
00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:50,760
Speaker 1: the final two minutes that ultimately had an impact on

710
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:54,120
Speaker 1: the spread in the in a bad way for me. Yeah,

711
00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:58,480
Speaker 1: honestly though, that's normal, Like, especially the more you do this,

712
00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:02,600
Speaker 1: it's just it's just mathematical that the two minute drill

713
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:04,280
Speaker 1: teams are tired at the end of the first half,

714
00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:09,440
Speaker 1: especially these teams with the no real preseason um I

715
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:13,080
Speaker 1: saw some crazy stad Their car is like money and

716
00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 1: the two minute drills. He scored on every two minute

717
00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:19,320
Speaker 1: drill possession he's had this year. So, like we said,

718
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:21,840
Speaker 1: with the no fans and no crowd noise with these teams,

719
00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:24,960
Speaker 1: it's really been benefiting these offenses, like everyone's seen with

720
00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:27,560
Speaker 1: all these overs, and it's just another one of those

721
00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:31,720
Speaker 1: where these road teams, they're I'm starting to favor them

722
00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:34,040
Speaker 1: more because it really doesn't matter with no fans, these

723
00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:36,040
Speaker 1: silent counts, you can do whatever you want as an

724
00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:38,200
Speaker 1: offense on the road. It's it's really starting to factor

725
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:43,640
Speaker 1: into a lot of these games. Uh, Cowboys Giants, Cowboys

726
00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 1: favored by nine and a half. Dude, you have to

727
00:33:49,680 --> 00:33:55,800
Speaker 1: do it. Come on. That's a terrible idea. It is

728
00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:59,400
Speaker 1: a terrible idea that we need a new rule. We

729
00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:01,280
Speaker 1: need a new rule. Well that you can't bet. I'm

730
00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:12,760
Speaker 1: Danny Dimes. Let's hear it for Danny Dimes or because

731
00:34:12,760 --> 00:34:15,760
Speaker 1: he's just Danny Fumbles. How many times did he fumble

732
00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:18,719
Speaker 1: in this game? Even though he didn't lose the fumbles

733
00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:23,879
Speaker 1: Like every time red zone switched to Danny Jones, he

734
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:26,040
Speaker 1: was getting sacked and the ball was falling out of

735
00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:28,120
Speaker 1: his hand and he happened to fall on top of it.

736
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:30,000
Speaker 1: The problem with betting on these bad teams is we

737
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:32,839
Speaker 1: are betting on such bad quarterbacks. It is like you

738
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:36,080
Speaker 1: need to be perfect to win these games. I hate

739
00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:39,040
Speaker 1: doing it and I hate backing them here, but like

740
00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:42,640
Speaker 1: we talked last week, and the Cowboys they're losers, and

741
00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 1: I know they played good teams here, and like maybe

742
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:48,160
Speaker 1: that's what's catching me here, but I can't believe the

743
00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:50,799
Speaker 1: public are coming in. I guess I get it because

744
00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:53,000
Speaker 1: the Giants are so bad, but they're they're taking the

745
00:34:53,080 --> 00:34:55,719
Speaker 1: Cowboys minus nine and a half. It's it's blown my

746
00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:59,000
Speaker 1: mind here. It's like, who can this defense stop? I know,

747
00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:00,640
Speaker 1: I'm with you. I'm like, think about it now. The

748
00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:02,600
Speaker 1: Giants are so bad. I don't know why I love

749
00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:04,959
Speaker 1: this line so much, Like I have it at seven

750
00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:06,960
Speaker 1: seven and a half, So like, I'm getting a ton

751
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:09,720
Speaker 1: of value here on the Giants in a divisional game

752
00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:13,640
Speaker 1: against the Cowboys. Who, Yeah, their offense is incredible, and

753
00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:15,839
Speaker 1: maybe that's what I'm misreading here, is that they're gonna

754
00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:18,560
Speaker 1: get scores and the Giants with terrible Daniel Jones, they'll

755
00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:20,920
Speaker 1: they'll just get stops themselves because they can't complete their

756
00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:23,440
Speaker 1: down passes. So I'm with you. We can stay away,

757
00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:28,040
Speaker 1: but I cannot bet the Cowboys minus not and a half.

758
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 1: You're gonna so you're gonna bet this game regardless. Yeah,

759
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:34,399
Speaker 1: Like I'm gonna take the Giants money line. That's how

760
00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:36,880
Speaker 1: much I don't believe in this Cowboys team right now.

761
00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:40,239
Speaker 1: I think something's wrong with them. In a normal year,

762
00:35:40,600 --> 00:35:42,640
Speaker 1: if they had a pack house, this is a great

763
00:35:42,680 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 1: spot for the Cowboys. This is that they should kill

764
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:47,440
Speaker 1: the Giants here. But I'm gonna trust that with the

765
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:50,560
Speaker 1: sparse fans down in Dallas and the Giants been playing,

766
00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:52,160
Speaker 1: they played better on the road they do at home.

767
00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:53,920
Speaker 1: They've covered twice this year, and both times it's been

768
00:35:53,920 --> 00:35:55,799
Speaker 1: on the road. I'm I'm gonna ride that trend. I'm

769
00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:58,120
Speaker 1: gonna take the Giants here. You were going to take

770
00:35:58,160 --> 00:36:01,440
Speaker 1: the Giants who are school worrying about three and a

771
00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:04,759
Speaker 1: half points a game, with a with a quarterback who

772
00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 1: can't convert a third down unless he's lucky enough to

773
00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:11,279
Speaker 1: fumble the ball forward. And you've got them going on

774
00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:15,839
Speaker 1: the road even in a seventeen thousand person you know,

775
00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:19,759
Speaker 1: fan capacity, against a quarterback who has thrown for more

776
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:22,759
Speaker 1: yards in the first four games than any quarterback in

777
00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:26,360
Speaker 1: NFL history, who is against a team that is desperate

778
00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:31,879
Speaker 1: for a win, desperate and this Giants team is terrible defensively,

779
00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:34,080
Speaker 1: and you're telling me you will bet the money line

780
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:35,560
Speaker 1: in this game. What is the money line on this

781
00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:37,759
Speaker 1: game right now? So it's nine a half, So I'm

782
00:36:37,800 --> 00:36:41,000
Speaker 1: guessing it's like that's off top of my head. But

783
00:36:41,440 --> 00:36:43,560
Speaker 1: this is like I I every week I do money

784
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 1: line parlays. And we talked about like I really like

785
00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:47,919
Speaker 1: the Browns and the Eagles last week, so I put

786
00:36:47,920 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 1: their money lines together. So you like those are you

787
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:52,960
Speaker 1: getting sane odds on these big money lines. So I'll

788
00:36:53,000 --> 00:36:54,960
Speaker 1: put a grand it's to win ten grand, and then

789
00:36:54,960 --> 00:36:58,600
Speaker 1: I'll just wait live watching the game, like and Eagles,

790
00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:01,560
Speaker 1: and he just heads live. So say the Eagles, I

791
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:03,600
Speaker 1: forget what point it was where they got up, Um,

792
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:05,840
Speaker 1: I think it was a touchdown. That's when I just

793
00:37:05,880 --> 00:37:08,319
Speaker 1: take the forty nine years at seven and a half

794
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:11,239
Speaker 1: or eight plut plus eight as a dog and try

795
00:37:11,239 --> 00:37:14,239
Speaker 1: to hit the middle. So with this week, we haven't

796
00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:17,359
Speaker 1: gotted the games yet, like the Vikings money line, with

797
00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:19,440
Speaker 1: like the Chargers money line, those are kind of things

798
00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:22,120
Speaker 1: like I'll stack those like you in your water stream

799
00:37:22,160 --> 00:37:24,480
Speaker 1: to go. There's no way the Charges will beat the Saints,

800
00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:26,200
Speaker 1: and there's no way the Vikings, you just got their

801
00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:28,640
Speaker 1: first one, are gonna beat Downbeaty Bo Russell Wilson. But

802
00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:30,400
Speaker 1: these are just games where the lines have gotten so

803
00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:33,040
Speaker 1: high because these teams are so undervalue that if I

804
00:37:33,080 --> 00:37:35,880
Speaker 1: just hit these kind of money line parlays just three

805
00:37:35,880 --> 00:37:38,920
Speaker 1: times in a season, I've doubled. I've doubled that original

806
00:37:38,960 --> 00:37:42,000
Speaker 1: bank roller tripled it, so I don't want to scare

807
00:37:42,080 --> 00:37:44,640
Speaker 1: people wrong here. I would not recommend to anybody listening

808
00:37:44,680 --> 00:37:47,600
Speaker 1: here to uh take the Giants money line, but this

809
00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:49,200
Speaker 1: is one of those where I think I'm getting an

810
00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:51,319
Speaker 1: extra two and a half numbers of value and that

811
00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:53,160
Speaker 1: goes into the money line. So I'm gonna take that

812
00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 1: just because I think there's value on it. All right.

813
00:37:55,120 --> 00:37:56,759
Speaker 1: By the way, the number on the money line right

814
00:37:56,760 --> 00:38:00,600
Speaker 1: now is uh plus three fifty Giants plus three fifty.

815
00:38:00,840 --> 00:38:05,160
Speaker 1: All right. Let's the Broncos Patriots game is not posted

816
00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:08,319
Speaker 1: right now, so I cannot talk about that game. I apologize.

817
00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:10,200
Speaker 1: I got a couple of tweets from people saying, hey,

818
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:12,000
Speaker 1: you gotta talk about all the games this one I can't.

819
00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:14,200
Speaker 1: There's no number up right now unless you're seeing something.

820
00:38:14,239 --> 00:38:16,799
Speaker 1: But I'm not seeing a number. Yeah, And like if

821
00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:19,080
Speaker 1: I get it like that, people want to talk about

822
00:38:19,080 --> 00:38:21,120
Speaker 1: these games, were like, what can we really do without

823
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:25,319
Speaker 1: knowing who's playing? Without lines up? So I'm with all

824
00:38:25,320 --> 00:38:27,000
Speaker 1: on that. On Twitter, you can reach out to either

825
00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:29,279
Speaker 1: of us and we'll give you our opinions um later

826
00:38:29,320 --> 00:38:32,160
Speaker 1: in the week on it obviously, but for right now,

827
00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:35,040
Speaker 1: my only advice would be everyone's gonna take the under,

828
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:37,319
Speaker 1: so I'll take the over, And I have nothing else

829
00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:39,680
Speaker 1: about that game. Both teams are banged up and hurt.

830
00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:43,200
Speaker 1: Whatever it opens that say, it's horrier standing at QB.

831
00:38:43,600 --> 00:38:45,720
Speaker 1: I'll probably end up on the Patriots after a bad

832
00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:48,040
Speaker 1: loss them to bounce back. But I can't. I can't

833
00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:50,319
Speaker 1: honestly tell you what to do with this game, all right,

834
00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:54,759
Speaker 1: I gotta give everybody reminder, go rate and review the podcast,

835
00:38:54,800 --> 00:39:00,480
Speaker 1: subscribe to the podcast, use the phrase that pays. Simon says, sorry,

836
00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:05,319
Speaker 1: and if we choose that very creative review, then you

837
00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:07,600
Speaker 1: will win. Next week a f reaction network couldy and

838
00:39:07,600 --> 00:39:10,560
Speaker 1: we will announce the winner of this week's reaction Network

839
00:39:10,600 --> 00:39:13,440
Speaker 1: couldie at the end of the show. Getting to the

840
00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:17,640
Speaker 1: end of this slate here in the last four games,

841
00:39:17,680 --> 00:39:21,520
Speaker 1: the last four game, we've got the Indianapolis Colts visiting

842
00:39:21,560 --> 00:39:25,640
Speaker 1: the Cleveland Browns culture three point favorites on the road.

843
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:31,680
Speaker 1: Wait wow, sent of the money so far coming in

844
00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:35,040
Speaker 1: on the Colds, But of the bets so right now.

845
00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:37,279
Speaker 1: When you've got money on one side, reminder, money on

846
00:39:37,280 --> 00:39:40,040
Speaker 1: one side, bets on the other side, that tends to

847
00:39:40,080 --> 00:39:42,279
Speaker 1: mean pros on the one side, which in this case

848
00:39:42,360 --> 00:39:46,040
Speaker 1: is the Colts. Joe's on the Browns sign. Yeah, I

849
00:39:46,080 --> 00:39:48,279
Speaker 1: get what they're seeing here. The Pros are coming in

850
00:39:48,320 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 1: because the Cults have been good to them. They're a

851
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:52,480
Speaker 1: well coached team, sold them both sides of the ball,

852
00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:55,880
Speaker 1: and Philip Rivers has kept together. And we're going against

853
00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:58,600
Speaker 1: the Cleveland team. Now, Who's I mean? That must be

854
00:39:58,640 --> 00:40:01,480
Speaker 1: their first back to back double digit wins in a

855
00:40:01,560 --> 00:40:04,600
Speaker 1: long time. Another Cowboys came back there and kind of

856
00:40:04,600 --> 00:40:07,640
Speaker 1: made it a game. And I don't know if if

857
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:11,040
Speaker 1: if I'm just reading this wrong or if I'm overthinking it,

858
00:40:11,080 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 1: but I just I'm just waiting for the floor to

859
00:40:13,200 --> 00:40:16,239
Speaker 1: fall out on this Colts team. It's Rivers plays with fire.

860
00:40:16,280 --> 00:40:18,080
Speaker 1: Every time he throws the ball, his arm looks like

861
00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:19,719
Speaker 1: a noodle arm. And the other times he puts it

862
00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:21,680
Speaker 1: right on the dome on a guy up the sideline.

863
00:40:21,880 --> 00:40:24,439
Speaker 1: And I'm gonna back to Browns here. I'm not gonna

864
00:40:24,480 --> 00:40:26,960
Speaker 1: be happy about it. I'm gonna kick myself for it,

865
00:40:27,000 --> 00:40:30,839
Speaker 1: but I'm I'm gonna trust that the Browns can play

866
00:40:30,920 --> 00:40:33,319
Speaker 1: well at home. The Colts, after back to back road games,

867
00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:35,440
Speaker 1: are gonna lay in neck here well, Look, this is

868
00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:38,360
Speaker 1: a strength versus strength, right, I mean, even without Nick Chubb,

869
00:40:38,719 --> 00:40:42,759
Speaker 1: the Browns have a really great rushing offense, best in

870
00:40:42,800 --> 00:40:46,319
Speaker 1: football x X, best in football statistically, they're executing at

871
00:40:46,360 --> 00:40:50,799
Speaker 1: an incredibly high level. Yeah. And the Colts, meanwhile, they've

872
00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:53,120
Speaker 1: got the best rushing defense, and not just that, but

873
00:40:53,160 --> 00:40:56,320
Speaker 1: like the best scoring defense. So a Browns team that

874
00:40:56,400 --> 00:40:59,279
Speaker 1: has scored thirty points three straight weeks, first time in

875
00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:02,080
Speaker 1: fifty years, the Cleveland Browns have done that going against

876
00:41:02,239 --> 00:41:06,560
Speaker 1: a very very strong scoring defense and a very strong

877
00:41:06,640 --> 00:41:09,719
Speaker 1: rushing defense. I get why the professionals are back in

878
00:41:09,760 --> 00:41:12,560
Speaker 1: the Colts here, which is why it makes me incredibly

879
00:41:12,560 --> 00:41:15,160
Speaker 1: nervous that you like the Browns. Yeah, and I can

880
00:41:15,160 --> 00:41:18,640
Speaker 1: see that too, because historically the good run defense will

881
00:41:18,640 --> 00:41:21,080
Speaker 1: stop the good run offense. Yeah, I'm with you. We

882
00:41:21,120 --> 00:41:23,040
Speaker 1: can stay away, but yeah, I do. I just like

883
00:41:23,120 --> 00:41:25,880
Speaker 1: the Browns here because I'm banking on their offense being

884
00:41:25,880 --> 00:41:28,160
Speaker 1: able to outproduce the Colts. But with all the injuries

885
00:41:28,200 --> 00:41:30,120
Speaker 1: the brown secondary, I guess I guess you're right. I

886
00:41:30,120 --> 00:41:32,120
Speaker 1: guess we can just put this on the side. All right, Philly,

887
00:41:32,239 --> 00:41:35,279
Speaker 1: Right there, you sounded like you were directly from the

888
00:41:35,320 --> 00:41:41,080
Speaker 1: center of Philadelphia. The Browns offense Seahawks minus seven at

889
00:41:41,120 --> 00:41:45,680
Speaker 1: home against the Vikings, desperate fur a win, looking like crap.

890
00:41:45,840 --> 00:41:49,520
Speaker 1: Their defense talk about banged up. This is going to

891
00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:51,360
Speaker 1: be a stay away from me. You're gonna have to

892
00:41:51,360 --> 00:41:53,680
Speaker 1: convince me on this one because it's either for me.

893
00:41:54,239 --> 00:41:57,520
Speaker 1: It's either the Seahawks or to stay away because this

894
00:41:57,520 --> 00:42:01,600
Speaker 1: this Vikings defense isn't tatters. Yeah you're I'm with you

895
00:42:01,640 --> 00:42:04,040
Speaker 1: on that. And like, what I like about this game

896
00:42:04,160 --> 00:42:07,080
Speaker 1: is just the fact that Seattle is undefeated. They're undefeated

897
00:42:07,160 --> 00:42:09,560
Speaker 1: against the spread too, So I'm just playing the numbers

898
00:42:09,640 --> 00:42:11,680
Speaker 1: that they're due for a letdown. I thought we're gonna

899
00:42:11,680 --> 00:42:13,799
Speaker 1: get it last week. All the things were there for

900
00:42:13,840 --> 00:42:16,560
Speaker 1: it to be a letdown, but the Dolphins in capitalized.

901
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:19,320
Speaker 1: So yeah, we can stay away about I'll play Minnesota

902
00:42:19,360 --> 00:42:22,200
Speaker 1: plus seven and a half. Well, I mean when you

903
00:42:22,239 --> 00:42:25,279
Speaker 1: say that, it's like, why would I not want to

904
00:42:25,320 --> 00:42:27,640
Speaker 1: be doing what you're doing with my money? Do you

905
00:42:27,640 --> 00:42:29,839
Speaker 1: know what I mean? Because, like I told you we're

906
00:42:29,840 --> 00:42:31,920
Speaker 1: in the podcast, I overthink our five picks like you

907
00:42:31,920 --> 00:42:33,880
Speaker 1: wouldn't believe it. Like I'm up Saturday night late, I

908
00:42:33,880 --> 00:42:35,799
Speaker 1: should be thinking about my clients and my own bets

909
00:42:35,800 --> 00:42:37,880
Speaker 1: when I'm like, yeah, these five are this are we

910
00:42:37,920 --> 00:42:40,839
Speaker 1: this is really the five are gone with So I'm

911
00:42:40,880 --> 00:42:43,440
Speaker 1: with you, man, this is like like there's other games

912
00:42:43,440 --> 00:42:45,080
Speaker 1: that are like you put your nuts on the table,

913
00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:47,200
Speaker 1: your big balls, like we don't have to do in Minnesota.

914
00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:49,200
Speaker 1: Like that's like, that's what I mean. That's why, like

915
00:42:49,280 --> 00:42:51,640
Speaker 1: last week I was second guesting the Dolphins one because

916
00:42:51,760 --> 00:42:53,640
Speaker 1: it's just I hate going against Russ and like I

917
00:42:53,680 --> 00:42:55,440
Speaker 1: hate being on the spot again where I'm trying to

918
00:42:55,480 --> 00:42:57,120
Speaker 1: do it for us again. So I'm with you, let's

919
00:42:57,120 --> 00:42:59,080
Speaker 1: just stay away. I don't want to put Minnesota. We

920
00:42:59,120 --> 00:43:02,560
Speaker 1: need Matt Mitchell, our producer. He is going to have

921
00:43:02,680 --> 00:43:08,919
Speaker 1: to create a big balls better the Week there game

922
00:43:09,000 --> 00:43:11,000
Speaker 1: where we are just putting our nuts on the table.

923
00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:13,560
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be the Giants. I think

924
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:16,160
Speaker 1: in the spirit, in the spirit of the big balls

925
00:43:16,200 --> 00:43:20,760
Speaker 1: Better the Week, we might have to make it the Giants.

926
00:43:20,880 --> 00:43:22,440
Speaker 1: I might even put a little taste on the money

927
00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:24,480
Speaker 1: line in then that that are the Eagles. That the

928
00:43:24,520 --> 00:43:27,360
Speaker 1: because the Eagles is even more insane because like everyone

929
00:43:27,480 --> 00:43:30,040
Speaker 1: loves Pittsburgh right now and everyone is just like the

930
00:43:30,080 --> 00:43:32,120
Speaker 1: Eagles are banged up in their trash, so that might

931
00:43:32,160 --> 00:43:35,239
Speaker 1: be the biggest one alright. Meanwhile, the Saints apparently only

932
00:43:35,239 --> 00:43:37,319
Speaker 1: play in prime time because they're back on Monday Night.

933
00:43:37,680 --> 00:43:40,279
Speaker 1: There's seven and a half point favorites against the Los

934
00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:43,200
Speaker 1: Angeles Chargers, and Justin Herbert, I don't have a read

935
00:43:43,239 --> 00:43:45,719
Speaker 1: on this game. It's a weird number for me, kind

936
00:43:45,719 --> 00:43:49,280
Speaker 1: of not indicating anything. I don't see any value convinced

937
00:43:49,280 --> 00:43:52,720
Speaker 1: me otherwise. I hate back in rookies and primetime games,

938
00:43:53,040 --> 00:43:57,080
Speaker 1: especially uh, especially where it's back to back road games

939
00:43:57,080 --> 00:44:00,759
Speaker 1: for the Chargers. But I still you last week with

940
00:44:00,840 --> 00:44:03,520
Speaker 1: Drew Brees, I still have not seeing what I need

941
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:05,520
Speaker 1: to see from him, and he still doesn't look right.

942
00:44:06,920 --> 00:44:09,320
Speaker 1: So we'll wait and we'll see what danger report is

943
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:11,640
Speaker 1: if we even think about putting this one in. But

944
00:44:11,760 --> 00:44:16,400
Speaker 1: if Michael Thomas is out again and the Chargers are

945
00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:19,120
Speaker 1: full go, because right now the Chargers they might be down,

946
00:44:20,480 --> 00:44:23,480
Speaker 1: I want to say it's three offensive alignment. I want

947
00:44:23,520 --> 00:44:25,600
Speaker 1: to wait and see what the deals with their O line.

948
00:44:26,040 --> 00:44:27,800
Speaker 1: But I would take the seven and a half of

949
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:30,239
Speaker 1: the Chargers. But I'm not gonna put this from the

950
00:44:30,239 --> 00:44:34,560
Speaker 1: competition yet, all right, So that's the slate right now.

951
00:44:34,600 --> 00:44:37,160
Speaker 1: And don't forget go rate and review the podcast. We're

952
00:44:37,200 --> 00:44:38,880
Speaker 1: gonna come back in a second. I am going to

953
00:44:38,920 --> 00:44:41,839
Speaker 1: announce the winner of last week's Phrase that Pays, this

954
00:44:41,880 --> 00:44:45,880
Speaker 1: week's phrase that pays to win a Free Action Network hoodie. Uh.

955
00:44:46,160 --> 00:44:50,200
Speaker 1: Simon says, I'm sorry for uh and he's apologizing to me,

956
00:44:50,320 --> 00:44:53,200
Speaker 1: which is gracious of him, considering he's giving us his

957
00:44:53,239 --> 00:44:56,320
Speaker 1: time and his advice and his wisdom for not putting

958
00:44:56,320 --> 00:45:00,640
Speaker 1: the Browns in our final five. And so right now,

959
00:45:01,160 --> 00:45:04,080
Speaker 1: in our final five, we have our first Thursday Night

960
00:45:04,080 --> 00:45:05,960
Speaker 1: pick of the week, the Bears plus five and a half.

961
00:45:06,880 --> 00:45:12,920
Speaker 1: We are considering we have to betting your balls picks

962
00:45:12,960 --> 00:45:15,880
Speaker 1: of the week right now, the Eagles plus seven against

963
00:45:15,880 --> 00:45:18,840
Speaker 1: the Steelers, the Giants plus nine and a half. We

964
00:45:18,920 --> 00:45:23,560
Speaker 1: might want to go money line against the Cowboys. So Bears, Eagles,

965
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:27,480
Speaker 1: Giants to other games. Were considering Rams minus eight against

966
00:45:27,480 --> 00:45:31,080
Speaker 1: the Washington football team, Miami plus eight against the forty

967
00:45:31,160 --> 00:45:34,400
Speaker 1: Niners right now. Other games, other games we're thinking about.

968
00:45:34,560 --> 00:45:39,640
Speaker 1: We're thinking about Ravens is huge favorites against the Bengals.

969
00:45:39,800 --> 00:45:41,759
Speaker 1: I might love this game. I might fall in love

970
00:45:41,800 --> 00:45:43,759
Speaker 1: with it, but we're waiting for the number to move.

971
00:45:44,040 --> 00:45:49,080
Speaker 1: I think at some point we're going to talk about

972
00:45:49,400 --> 00:45:51,520
Speaker 1: the Ravens line moving and we're gonna want that one.

973
00:45:51,880 --> 00:45:54,840
Speaker 1: I bet Houston because we want to bet against. We

974
00:45:54,840 --> 00:45:58,480
Speaker 1: want to bet on new coaches, and maybe the Browns

975
00:45:58,719 --> 00:46:01,080
Speaker 1: as we get to it. But those are those are

976
00:46:01,080 --> 00:46:07,560
Speaker 1: the games, the Bears, Eagles, Rams, Dolphins, Giants, Ravens, Texans, Browns.

977
00:46:07,920 --> 00:46:09,759
Speaker 1: You can get all this in the Action Network cap.

978
00:46:10,080 --> 00:46:12,000
Speaker 1: Just go to the Action Network cap on Sunday morning.

979
00:46:12,000 --> 00:46:15,600
Speaker 1: Follow Simon Hunter. I will put all those picks there.

980
00:46:15,640 --> 00:46:20,960
Speaker 1: On Sunday, it's time for the phrase the pays winner.

981
00:46:21,480 --> 00:46:25,680
Speaker 1: Here we go. The phrase that pays This is from reminder,

982
00:46:26,040 --> 00:46:29,040
Speaker 1: Simon says, I'm sorry. Put that in the review that

983
00:46:29,080 --> 00:46:31,759
Speaker 1: you give us when you rate and when you subscribe.

984
00:46:31,960 --> 00:46:33,479
Speaker 1: We will choose the winner to get a free Action

985
00:46:33,480 --> 00:46:36,239
Speaker 1: Network putty. The winner this week is Frank a k

986
00:46:36,440 --> 00:46:39,719
Speaker 1: A Gambling Tank. We are still missing the best selling

987
00:46:39,760 --> 00:46:42,360
Speaker 1: author and bookmaker to the world, Bob Scucci. With that

988
00:46:42,400 --> 00:46:45,720
Speaker 1: being said, Simon Hunter, the professional gambler, not the British actor,

989
00:46:46,040 --> 00:46:48,239
Speaker 1: the guy that somehow got a job working on the

990
00:46:48,239 --> 00:46:50,920
Speaker 1: set of Jersey Shore, has stepped up and been a

991
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:54,680
Speaker 1: pretty good replacement after going two and three. Two weeks ago,

992
00:46:54,800 --> 00:46:57,759
Speaker 1: Simon said we bounced back, which is true, but I'm

993
00:46:57,880 --> 00:47:00,560
Speaker 1: He also said the Reskins were the right side all

994
00:47:00,600 --> 00:47:02,640
Speaker 1: in all. If you like winning money, this is the

995
00:47:02,680 --> 00:47:05,319
Speaker 1: podcast for you. You feel like you know Simon and

996
00:47:05,400 --> 00:47:11,080
Speaker 1: Chad personally, Gambling Tank, Frank Listen, you gotta reach out

997
00:47:11,080 --> 00:47:14,480
Speaker 1: to Matt Mitchell Matt dot Mitchell at Action network dot

998
00:47:14,520 --> 00:47:17,399
Speaker 1: com so you can get your free hoodie. We gotta

999
00:47:17,480 --> 00:47:19,839
Speaker 1: make it grade this week. That's all I can say. Yeah,

1000
00:47:19,880 --> 00:47:22,399
Speaker 1: and don't hate us. We as our bye week people. Yeah,

1001
00:47:22,480 --> 00:47:24,320
Speaker 1: don't hate us, that's right. Don't hate us. If we

1002
00:47:24,400 --> 00:47:26,080
Speaker 1: used by week, I'll still put picks in the app.

1003
00:47:26,080 --> 00:47:29,400
Speaker 1: Don't worry for Simon Hunter. This has been the favorites

1004
00:47:29,800 --> 00:47:33,360
Speaker 1: from the Action Network. Download from Spotify, from iTunes, wherever

1005
00:47:33,360 --> 00:47:36,560
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts. Until next time, I Love you,