1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business Appy. 11 00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:48,000 Speaker 3: We saw it four or five days ago. 12 00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:51,680 Speaker 2: Taiwan Semiconductor came out with the teas and they delivered 13 00:00:51,680 --> 00:00:54,640 Speaker 2: today and actually I read every single word of it. 14 00:00:54,680 --> 00:00:57,000 Speaker 2: I thought it was just, you know, within the gloom 15 00:00:57,000 --> 00:00:59,240 Speaker 2: that's out there. It's like what Gina Martin Adams is saying, 16 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:01,600 Speaker 2: I'm sorry, business, this is getting done. 17 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:03,840 Speaker 4: Business is getting done on the chip side. I mean 18 00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:06,200 Speaker 4: that is the way to play, at least initially, Tom 19 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:06,959 Speaker 4: the ai play. 20 00:01:07,040 --> 00:01:08,680 Speaker 5: So people focusing on the show. 21 00:01:09,040 --> 00:01:11,959 Speaker 2: We start strong today. We hate her Amandoli Amer this 22 00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:14,880 Speaker 2: with black Rock. Nice to see her she shows up 23 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:16,039 Speaker 2: with a forty page deck. 24 00:01:16,160 --> 00:01:17,119 Speaker 5: I know I'm looking at it. 25 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:19,400 Speaker 3: Okay, and she looks as she's got that evil eye. 26 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:21,839 Speaker 2: If Tom, if you don't at least get the page 27 00:01:21,880 --> 00:01:22,920 Speaker 2: thirty five, I'm not. 28 00:01:22,959 --> 00:01:25,559 Speaker 3: Talking to you on your forty page deck. 29 00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:28,120 Speaker 2: The one chart that I really like Amandolion, and this 30 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:33,080 Speaker 2: is on the linkage year of interest rates into equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. 31 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:35,440 Speaker 3: You talk about dispersion. 32 00:01:36,160 --> 00:01:40,039 Speaker 2: What's dispersion and why should her audience care about it? 33 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:40,320 Speaker 6: Sure? 34 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:42,160 Speaker 7: Well, first of all, thank you so much for having 35 00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:47,240 Speaker 7: me dispersion. Dispersion is really that things are really happening 36 00:01:47,319 --> 00:01:50,240 Speaker 7: under the surface despite what may seem to be optical 37 00:01:51,960 --> 00:01:54,960 Speaker 7: low vall tight spread levels, which is a complaint that 38 00:01:54,960 --> 00:01:58,320 Speaker 7: we hear a lot from market observers. Under the surface, 39 00:01:58,480 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 7: even though, for example, high yield spreads are optically tight, 40 00:02:02,600 --> 00:02:07,800 Speaker 7: there are participating parts like high quality low duration sectors 41 00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:09,640 Speaker 7: of the market, and then there are areas that are lagging, 42 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:11,040 Speaker 7: like triple C is low quality. 43 00:02:11,160 --> 00:02:13,680 Speaker 2: If ed Hymen comes in yesterday and says his number 44 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:19,919 Speaker 2: one issues B double A spreads showten Nirvana, you're suggesting. 45 00:02:19,520 --> 00:02:23,760 Speaker 7: Underneath there's actually more to the story. And it's not 46 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:25,679 Speaker 7: not a rising tidelift up boats. I think if I 47 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:28,520 Speaker 7: were to distill it down tom it would say the 48 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:31,840 Speaker 7: market is efficient in that it's recognizing that there are 49 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:34,680 Speaker 7: some companies that were kept afloat by a super low 50 00:02:34,760 --> 00:02:37,800 Speaker 7: rate environment and they will not be able to manage 51 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:40,760 Speaker 7: through a high for longer cost of capital environment, something 52 00:02:40,800 --> 00:02:42,239 Speaker 7: that we've been discussing for a while. 53 00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:44,000 Speaker 8: I think you also see it just broadly. 54 00:02:44,080 --> 00:02:47,840 Speaker 7: There's a lot of talk of monetary policy is restrictive. Yes, 55 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:50,480 Speaker 7: that's true in certain parts of credit, certain parts of 56 00:02:50,480 --> 00:02:53,840 Speaker 7: commercial real estate for example, but in general, the economy 57 00:02:53,840 --> 00:02:56,679 Speaker 7: has been quite resilient, and actually we're seeing that bifurcation 58 00:02:56,760 --> 00:02:57,560 Speaker 7: play out through credit. 59 00:02:57,960 --> 00:02:58,120 Speaker 3: Man. 60 00:02:58,240 --> 00:03:00,200 Speaker 4: I keep telling Tommy he's got to take more credit risk, 61 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:02,720 Speaker 4: but he says he can sit there in a two 62 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:04,880 Speaker 4: year treasury four point ninety two percent. 63 00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:06,919 Speaker 5: That's not a bad trade. 64 00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:10,200 Speaker 7: So actually, we think there's a tactical case for allocating 65 00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:14,000 Speaker 7: to floating rate credit, short duration credit to really pick 66 00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:15,960 Speaker 7: up on that carryon income component. 67 00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:17,520 Speaker 8: So I would agree with that. 68 00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:20,760 Speaker 7: I think given the signaling that we've had from central banks, 69 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:24,560 Speaker 7: what we're seeing is that we're not expecting rate cuts 70 00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:27,400 Speaker 7: in the early part of the second half. We had 71 00:03:27,440 --> 00:03:30,480 Speaker 7: previously been guiding to cuts coming in the second half. 72 00:03:30,480 --> 00:03:32,760 Speaker 7: With risks skewed earlier, we no longer see that. I 73 00:03:32,760 --> 00:03:36,080 Speaker 7: think the risks are more balanced. And then similarly, if 74 00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:39,360 Speaker 7: you expect this kind of transatlantic divergence where it looks. 75 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:40,720 Speaker 8: Like the ECB is poised. 76 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:43,520 Speaker 7: To cut in June, the Federal stay on hold, it 77 00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:46,920 Speaker 7: actually does. It does lend itself to a tactical allocation 78 00:03:46,960 --> 00:03:47,600 Speaker 7: to floating rate. 79 00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 5: Credit is our scenario. 80 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:52,920 Speaker 4: And you guys a black rock think that maybe they 81 00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:54,200 Speaker 4: don't cut in twenty twenty. 82 00:03:54,240 --> 00:03:55,520 Speaker 8: I don't think we can rule it out. 83 00:03:56,280 --> 00:03:59,880 Speaker 7: I think the signaling from the chair, the vice chair, 84 00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:02,200 Speaker 7: New York FED President williams All, even in the past 85 00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:04,400 Speaker 7: few days, has shown us that this is. 86 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:05,880 Speaker 8: Going to take longer than expected. 87 00:04:06,280 --> 00:04:09,480 Speaker 7: I do think it is important that they get cut 88 00:04:09,560 --> 00:04:11,840 Speaker 7: started in twenty twenty four, not because of twenty five 89 00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:14,560 Speaker 7: or fifty basis point reduction in rates is game changing 90 00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:17,520 Speaker 7: for the lift in market, but rather I think uncertainty 91 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:19,960 Speaker 7: around monetary policy is not something that the credit market 92 00:04:19,960 --> 00:04:22,279 Speaker 7: needs right now. And so if they do not cut 93 00:04:22,400 --> 00:04:24,520 Speaker 7: and we start to talk more about the potential for hikes. 94 00:04:24,560 --> 00:04:26,320 Speaker 7: I think that's problematic for risk sentiment. 95 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:30,560 Speaker 4: I end, go that's the Bloomberg Index browser. I look 96 00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:33,680 Speaker 4: the fixed income space. I got all read this year, 97 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:36,080 Speaker 4: even the high yield, which had been a pretty good performer. 98 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:38,240 Speaker 5: What do I do here? I mean, how do I 99 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 5: make money in fixed income these days? 100 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:42,280 Speaker 7: The one part of credit that is positive is leverage 101 00:04:42,320 --> 00:04:43,560 Speaker 7: loans because. 102 00:04:43,360 --> 00:04:44,080 Speaker 8: Of the floating rate. 103 00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:46,200 Speaker 7: So again it goes back to that point that if 104 00:04:46,200 --> 00:04:50,000 Speaker 7: you're thinking about tactical asset allocation, one of the areas 105 00:04:50,080 --> 00:04:52,840 Speaker 7: that actually we think is supported in this environment is 106 00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:54,719 Speaker 7: floating rate exposures. You could do that a bunch of 107 00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:56,559 Speaker 7: different ways, right, You could do that in the IG market, 108 00:04:56,640 --> 00:05:00,200 Speaker 7: leverage loans, clos private debt, even And I think that 109 00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:03,239 Speaker 7: to your point, that's exactly where that dispersion comes in, Tom. 110 00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:05,479 Speaker 7: Within credit, it's not all created equals. 111 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:07,200 Speaker 3: Our audience is not going to go out. They're not 112 00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:09,040 Speaker 3: on the phone at ninety I'm going, jeez, I think 113 00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:10,239 Speaker 3: I need a leveraged loan. 114 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 2: In the real world, of people who are saying I'm 115 00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:16,719 Speaker 2: not going to play in the market, I'm not buying Nvidio, 116 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:19,839 Speaker 2: blah blah blah, they're saying I want the comfort of 117 00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:23,440 Speaker 2: a coupon and maybe I'll make a total return. I'm 118 00:05:23,480 --> 00:05:27,480 Speaker 2: looking at the logarithmic Bloomberg total return shark, the Lehmann 119 00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:30,200 Speaker 2: Index from you know. I'm thrilled that, you know, Mike 120 00:05:30,200 --> 00:05:33,920 Speaker 2: Bloomberger and Thomsikund has stepped up to give us this wonderful, 121 00:05:33,920 --> 00:05:34,839 Speaker 2: wonderful index. 122 00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:37,000 Speaker 3: I'm eyeballing it, folks. 123 00:05:37,400 --> 00:05:40,760 Speaker 2: At the minimum, I need a ten percent gain to 124 00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:44,600 Speaker 2: get back to trend on that index. After the carnage 125 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:47,000 Speaker 2: of the last three years, When do we get that 126 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:48,960 Speaker 2: good feeling back in your world? 127 00:05:49,360 --> 00:05:52,719 Speaker 7: I think banking on a rally in long end rates 128 00:05:53,040 --> 00:05:55,159 Speaker 7: is not something that's in our base case at the 129 00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:58,159 Speaker 7: moment for a host of reasons, including the deficity so. 130 00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:01,960 Speaker 3: Wording to choose duration. So if you've got that weight. 131 00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:04,120 Speaker 7: Yeah, so I think I think towards the front end 132 00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:06,320 Speaker 7: belly of the curve is probably where you want to be. 133 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:08,920 Speaker 7: The curve is still inverted, right, so you are picking 134 00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:12,480 Speaker 7: up that extra income and carry by tilting more towards 135 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:14,720 Speaker 7: the front and belly as opposed to the long end. 136 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:17,000 Speaker 7: The one point Tom that I think is really important 137 00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:19,440 Speaker 7: for our listeners to think about as well, is that 138 00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:24,240 Speaker 7: the all in yield component right now is screening very 139 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:26,880 Speaker 7: attractive historically, even while spreads are tight. 140 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:29,320 Speaker 3: When you say near the belly to. 141 00:06:29,240 --> 00:06:30,839 Speaker 8: Give us five to seven years. 142 00:06:30,560 --> 00:06:32,599 Speaker 2: Police has got to apply some money. She saved so 143 00:06:32,680 --> 00:06:37,120 Speaker 2: money the costco last weekend. She's looking three or five years. 144 00:06:37,200 --> 00:06:39,960 Speaker 7: Yes, so I would say anywhere between three and seven 145 00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:43,880 Speaker 7: is where we would want to focus. But from from 146 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:47,800 Speaker 7: the perspective of all in yields deploying capital now, we 147 00:06:47,839 --> 00:06:51,240 Speaker 7: see a pretty attractive opportunity to do so. But you're right, Tom, 148 00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:53,880 Speaker 7: the past two years have not been have not been 149 00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:55,520 Speaker 7: favorable for long enersion. 150 00:06:55,560 --> 00:06:57,080 Speaker 5: If I want to take some credit risk, are there 151 00:06:57,120 --> 00:06:58,599 Speaker 5: certain sectors you guys like? 152 00:06:58,760 --> 00:06:59,400 Speaker 8: So I do think. 153 00:06:59,520 --> 00:07:01,880 Speaker 7: I do think we're thinking about the potential for geopolitical 154 00:07:01,960 --> 00:07:06,480 Speaker 7: risks to escalate. Sector and issuer selection will be really important. 155 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 7: So on the sector side, are you a commodity purchaser 156 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:12,320 Speaker 7: or you commodity producer? Commodity producers are likely to fare 157 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:14,280 Speaker 7: better in this environment to the extent that we get 158 00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:17,920 Speaker 7: commodity disruptions and we still like financials. And then I 159 00:07:17,960 --> 00:07:20,760 Speaker 7: would also say on the issuer side, pay really close 160 00:07:20,760 --> 00:07:23,920 Speaker 7: attention to supply chain resilience, balance sheet resilience. 161 00:07:24,280 --> 00:07:25,520 Speaker 8: Can you navigate a higher. 162 00:07:25,440 --> 00:07:28,520 Speaker 2: Longer asking for a friend on instruments, Yes, we're in 163 00:07:28,560 --> 00:07:29,440 Speaker 2: a quiet period. 164 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:29,840 Speaker 3: I get that. 165 00:07:29,920 --> 00:07:32,680 Speaker 2: Maybe you can't even answer this question. Are we going 166 00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:36,760 Speaker 2: to get big tech issue bonds? They've got an absurdly 167 00:07:36,840 --> 00:07:39,800 Speaker 2: low bond component. Are they going to get religion in 168 00:07:39,800 --> 00:07:43,400 Speaker 2: this cycle? This dispersion that we're in now an issue 169 00:07:43,680 --> 00:07:46,080 Speaker 2: megagajillions of fixed income debt. 170 00:07:46,200 --> 00:07:47,280 Speaker 8: So a couple of things. 171 00:07:47,320 --> 00:07:49,320 Speaker 7: One is we are in a quiet period, but it's 172 00:07:49,320 --> 00:07:51,040 Speaker 7: picking up a little bit with financials. 173 00:07:51,160 --> 00:07:52,800 Speaker 8: I think in general, IG. 174 00:07:52,760 --> 00:07:56,080 Speaker 7: Corporates are in a unique position, specifically cash rich sectors 175 00:07:56,120 --> 00:07:59,080 Speaker 7: like tech and pharma, where they can issue actually earn 176 00:07:59,080 --> 00:08:01,680 Speaker 7: a pretty good interest income, and that is above and 177 00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:03,840 Speaker 7: beyond the cost of debt in many instances. 178 00:08:04,000 --> 00:08:05,720 Speaker 8: And so I think to the extent you expect EM. 179 00:08:05,720 --> 00:08:08,520 Speaker 7: And A to pick up shareholder returns general corporate purposes, yes, 180 00:08:08,560 --> 00:08:09,200 Speaker 7: we do expect that. 181 00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:09,800 Speaker 6: The deck. 182 00:08:11,160 --> 00:08:14,560 Speaker 3: Can you bring a sixty page deck next time? Please? 183 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:15,400 Speaker 3: I'm begging. 184 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:16,800 Speaker 8: I'll give you the summary anytime. 185 00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:18,040 Speaker 6: You don't have no. 186 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:20,080 Speaker 3: No, I like the six deck. I don't need the 187 00:08:20,160 --> 00:08:23,880 Speaker 3: executive summary. I want to line the sixty pach deck. 188 00:08:23,880 --> 00:08:26,400 Speaker 2: I'm in to line them of black Roc just always 189 00:08:26,720 --> 00:08:41,040 Speaker 2: fabulous futures up twelve. This is the conversation of the 190 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:44,440 Speaker 2: day folks for Global Wall Street on the Greek letters. 191 00:08:44,600 --> 00:08:45,720 Speaker 3: Here's what it comes down to. 192 00:08:46,360 --> 00:08:48,400 Speaker 2: You go to your statistics class and you get the 193 00:08:48,440 --> 00:08:51,600 Speaker 2: central limit theorem done, and then you sit there and 194 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:53,800 Speaker 2: they eyes start to glaze over when they get to 195 00:08:53,840 --> 00:08:56,880 Speaker 2: the cross moments, including kurtosis, I've got. 196 00:08:56,679 --> 00:08:57,679 Speaker 3: Some of my left foot. 197 00:08:58,120 --> 00:09:00,520 Speaker 2: And then you get to wear the dynam of the 198 00:09:00,520 --> 00:09:05,080 Speaker 2: Greek letters click in like alpha, beta, gamma, delta, delta, delta, delta. 199 00:09:05,240 --> 00:09:09,120 Speaker 2: Amy will Silverman understands this stuff and joins us this 200 00:09:09,240 --> 00:09:14,480 Speaker 2: morning with RBC Capital Markets. Amy, I love this, love 201 00:09:14,520 --> 00:09:19,760 Speaker 2: this comment. Everybody is so long, they've got more to hedge. 202 00:09:20,400 --> 00:09:25,160 Speaker 2: How are we protecting ensuring ourselves after the second leg 203 00:09:25,200 --> 00:09:27,240 Speaker 2: of this mother of all bull markets? 204 00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, Tom, good morning. I think this is 205 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:34,320 Speaker 1: what it comes down to. Everyone's been asking me, look, 206 00:09:34,360 --> 00:09:38,240 Speaker 1: what's different now? Why is your favorite word skew picking up? 207 00:09:38,280 --> 00:09:41,040 Speaker 1: Why are folks looking at hedges? Why is VIC spiking? 208 00:09:41,559 --> 00:09:44,800 Speaker 1: And I think it's really that simple. Folks are more long, right, 209 00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 1: they spent all this year chasing upside, chasing that right tail, 210 00:09:49,000 --> 00:09:51,679 Speaker 1: getting their fomo and momo on, and here we are. 211 00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:54,440 Speaker 1: I think there's just simply more to hedge right now. 212 00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:56,560 Speaker 2: Smart to hedge right now. But what's the right tail 213 00:09:56,640 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 2: look like? I know we've got left tail, Paul, left 214 00:09:59,040 --> 00:10:00,319 Speaker 2: tail's at ink stuff. 215 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:01,080 Speaker 3: There, yep, you know. 216 00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 2: I mean it's like, you know, it's it's like the 217 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:06,480 Speaker 2: tension all of a sudden, the left tail's starting to move. 218 00:10:06,760 --> 00:10:08,160 Speaker 3: How do you protect against that? 219 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:13,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, So I'd say two things. First, you know, the 220 00:10:13,480 --> 00:10:17,760 Speaker 1: right tail is definitely not gone, it's just waned, so 221 00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:20,880 Speaker 1: the exuberance is still there. You look at a stock 222 00:10:21,040 --> 00:10:24,000 Speaker 1: like in video where that right tail was just so hisstoric. 223 00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:26,760 Speaker 1: You really, like, in the whole history of Nvidia had 224 00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:29,760 Speaker 1: never seen anything like it. That bid for call options 225 00:10:29,840 --> 00:10:33,120 Speaker 1: that's peaked in March, but it's still there. There's still 226 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:36,920 Speaker 1: call demand outweighing put demand. It's actually just this idea 227 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:39,000 Speaker 1: that the left tail's waking up. You know, we've had 228 00:10:39,040 --> 00:10:42,720 Speaker 1: geopolitical tensions before, we've had Middle East tensions before, we've 229 00:10:42,760 --> 00:10:45,520 Speaker 1: had sticky CPA before. Why is it different now? The 230 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:47,960 Speaker 1: fact that the left tail is waking up? I think 231 00:10:48,040 --> 00:10:51,040 Speaker 1: just speaks to a global worry that's picking up as well. 232 00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:54,160 Speaker 4: So Amy, if I'm one of those folks that says, boy, 233 00:10:54,240 --> 00:10:57,200 Speaker 4: this SMP it's rallied twenty five percent off those October lows, 234 00:10:57,480 --> 00:11:00,959 Speaker 4: I haven't seen earnings move, you know, to a similar level. 235 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:03,360 Speaker 4: So I'm concerned about valuation and I want to hedge. 236 00:11:03,400 --> 00:11:06,360 Speaker 4: Here is it expensive for me to hedge this market 237 00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:06,800 Speaker 4: right now? 238 00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:10,840 Speaker 1: It really isn't. And you know, I will tell you 239 00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:14,120 Speaker 1: this is a conversation that for the whole first part 240 00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:16,920 Speaker 1: of this year no one wanted to talk to me about. 241 00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:19,960 Speaker 1: And those conversations are picking up. So you do have 242 00:11:20,040 --> 00:11:22,559 Speaker 1: those folks who are saying, you know, valuations look a 243 00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:26,240 Speaker 1: little full, I'm a little concerned about earning season. Can 244 00:11:26,280 --> 00:11:29,040 Speaker 1: we hedge? I will tell you hedging still looks historically 245 00:11:29,080 --> 00:11:31,880 Speaker 1: pretty cheap. You know, it's gone up this year, but 246 00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:34,280 Speaker 1: when you look back five years, ten years, it's still 247 00:11:34,320 --> 00:11:37,679 Speaker 1: at historically pretty low levels because again, people haven't been 248 00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:40,360 Speaker 1: focused on it. They've been focused on that right tail. 249 00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:43,520 Speaker 1: But actually the cost of protection in your portfolio is 250 00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:45,480 Speaker 1: really quite attractive. Still. 251 00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:47,880 Speaker 4: What do you tell people that are I guess maybe 252 00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:50,439 Speaker 4: call you and say, hey, what is this Federal Reserve 253 00:11:50,800 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 4: going to do? 254 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:53,360 Speaker 5: I just have no sense here. 255 00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:56,920 Speaker 4: The data comes in pretty strong, pretty the economy looks 256 00:11:56,920 --> 00:11:57,400 Speaker 4: pretty strong. 257 00:11:57,440 --> 00:11:59,319 Speaker 5: Maybe this Fed is not going to cut it all 258 00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:00,319 Speaker 5: this year? What do you tak tell them? 259 00:12:00,320 --> 00:12:02,360 Speaker 4: And as you think about where we're going to go 260 00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:04,280 Speaker 4: over the next maybe six to nine months. 261 00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:08,240 Speaker 1: You know, it's amazing. I had an associate on our 262 00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:11,720 Speaker 1: team yesterday just price out, you know, a simple graph 263 00:12:11,800 --> 00:12:15,400 Speaker 1: of where the market was looking at rate hike slash 264 00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:19,000 Speaker 1: cuts one year forward, and that that line kind of 265 00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:20,720 Speaker 1: makes it look like that no one has any clue 266 00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:21,720 Speaker 1: what's going to happen. 267 00:12:21,520 --> 00:12:22,080 Speaker 6: In the future. 268 00:12:22,559 --> 00:12:24,240 Speaker 1: And so you know what I what I say to 269 00:12:24,280 --> 00:12:26,400 Speaker 1: folks and we talk about, you know, could we end 270 00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:28,959 Speaker 1: this year with zero rate cuts? You know, our own 271 00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:32,280 Speaker 1: rate strategists as one rate cut. I will just tell you, like, 272 00:12:32,360 --> 00:12:35,439 Speaker 1: these unknown unknowns, these tails in the markets are still 273 00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:38,080 Speaker 1: not being priced to a level that I think they 274 00:12:38,160 --> 00:12:41,319 Speaker 1: actually should be. You know that that's really the bottom line. 275 00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:42,840 Speaker 1: These are tails that can happen. 276 00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:44,000 Speaker 3: Amy. 277 00:12:44,040 --> 00:12:46,480 Speaker 2: The collective memory of most of our listeners and viewers 278 00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:50,280 Speaker 2: is that your world of derivatives is great until suddenly 279 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 2: it's not. 280 00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:52,480 Speaker 3: And there's always a surprise. I'm going to. 281 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:55,480 Speaker 2: Say portfolio surance in nineteen eighty seven, and you know 282 00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:59,120 Speaker 2: other stuff as well. What's the shadow out there that's 283 00:12:59,120 --> 00:13:03,920 Speaker 2: building up, whether it's leverage or unleveraged. What's the the 284 00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:07,960 Speaker 2: drivenal with a notional that's getting out of control and 285 00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:09,959 Speaker 2: sometime could impinge on all of us? 286 00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:14,560 Speaker 1: So, Tom, it's really interesting that you bring this up. 287 00:13:14,640 --> 00:13:17,240 Speaker 1: This was actually part of my roadmap in my twenty 288 00:13:17,280 --> 00:13:18,640 Speaker 1: twenty four outlook for volatility. 289 00:13:18,800 --> 00:13:20,680 Speaker 2: You're going to send me a forty page deck like 290 00:13:20,679 --> 00:13:22,160 Speaker 2: Amanda Line of Black. 291 00:13:22,520 --> 00:13:24,920 Speaker 1: Please, I promise I won't, but I'll give you the 292 00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:27,800 Speaker 1: bottom line, which is, you know, this rise of zero 293 00:13:27,880 --> 00:13:31,360 Speaker 1: DT zero data xpre options has kind of changed how 294 00:13:31,400 --> 00:13:33,920 Speaker 1: much of a GPS options can be. You know, it 295 00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:35,480 Speaker 1: used to be we got a pretty good idea of 296 00:13:35,559 --> 00:13:37,200 Speaker 1: what we thought was going to happen one to three 297 00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:40,640 Speaker 1: months out. Oldest trading has shrunken ten or so much 298 00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:43,679 Speaker 1: that the options market isn't as great a GPS anymore. Right, 299 00:13:43,720 --> 00:13:45,680 Speaker 1: you're going to get that signal for a left hand turn, 300 00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:47,240 Speaker 1: but it's going to be in fifty feet instead of 301 00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:49,359 Speaker 1: a thousand feet. That's the bottom line. 302 00:13:49,440 --> 00:13:51,439 Speaker 5: Amy, what's the number one trade. 303 00:13:51,480 --> 00:13:54,320 Speaker 4: You hear your clients talking about these days, where are 304 00:13:54,320 --> 00:13:56,480 Speaker 4: they looking to put some positions on. 305 00:13:57,960 --> 00:14:00,560 Speaker 1: You know, I would tell you their upside trades, but 306 00:14:00,559 --> 00:14:03,360 Speaker 1: they're actually upside trades for worry. So we continue to 307 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:06,520 Speaker 1: see a lot of investors focused on energy upside. You know, 308 00:14:06,559 --> 00:14:08,480 Speaker 1: that's a geopolitical tail hedge. 309 00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:08,880 Speaker 8: Yeah. 310 00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:10,800 Speaker 1: And then the same thing with gold, which has been 311 00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:14,160 Speaker 1: very popular. That's also not only a geopolitical tail hedge, 312 00:14:14,200 --> 00:14:18,000 Speaker 1: that's an inflation worry concern. So they're expressing it an upside, 313 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:21,120 Speaker 1: but the reality is these are downside worry concerns that 314 00:14:21,240 --> 00:14:24,080 Speaker 1: using these sectors for do the. 315 00:14:24,040 --> 00:14:28,680 Speaker 2: Big techs, the ginormous free cash flow building tech companies 316 00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:34,000 Speaker 2: did they? Did they message in the derivative space? Is 317 00:14:34,040 --> 00:14:37,680 Speaker 2: there a skew to Apple, you know, or another Greek 318 00:14:37,800 --> 00:14:42,360 Speaker 2: letter to Microsoft? Are they part of your study? Oh? 319 00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:45,120 Speaker 1: Absolutely, you know, we can't ignore these. The weights tom 320 00:14:45,160 --> 00:14:47,240 Speaker 1: are just so heavy. It's like if tech goes, the 321 00:14:47,240 --> 00:14:49,440 Speaker 1: market goes. It's as simple as that. I'll say, you 322 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:51,640 Speaker 1: picked Apple. Apple's in a little bit of a unique 323 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:55,760 Speaker 1: position because of you know, concerns around China, different things there. 324 00:14:55,840 --> 00:14:58,920 Speaker 1: So that skew has been more on the downside, but 325 00:14:59,040 --> 00:15:02,560 Speaker 1: everything else. Even though exuberance has waned, people are still 326 00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:05,000 Speaker 1: much more focused on that right tail. You know, you're 327 00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:07,600 Speaker 1: in videos of the world, your metas. People are still 328 00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:10,640 Speaker 1: more call demand outweighed put demand. 329 00:15:10,880 --> 00:15:13,360 Speaker 5: And is that still true an AI because AI was 330 00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:16,520 Speaker 5: certainly the trade here for twenty twenty three amys. Is 331 00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:18,600 Speaker 5: it still kind of the trade here? Or are people 332 00:15:18,600 --> 00:15:19,320 Speaker 5: pulling back to thing? 333 00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:23,000 Speaker 1: You know, they're not pulling back, but they're kind of 334 00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:26,240 Speaker 1: like moving away from the ogs. So if Nvidio was 335 00:15:26,280 --> 00:15:29,600 Speaker 1: your OG, everyone wants to know what the AI adjacent 336 00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:32,600 Speaker 1: names are, So you get situations like super micro. You 337 00:15:32,640 --> 00:15:35,760 Speaker 1: saw that call skew invert. You know, obviously you see 338 00:15:35,760 --> 00:15:38,320 Speaker 1: that run in semis, but it continues. So folks keep 339 00:15:38,360 --> 00:15:41,080 Speaker 1: saying to me, you know, show me the AI related 340 00:15:41,200 --> 00:15:43,760 Speaker 1: names that aren't your in videos. But we think we 341 00:15:43,800 --> 00:15:45,440 Speaker 1: can use options express upsided. 342 00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:48,280 Speaker 2: What is your SPX target? How do you fold that 343 00:15:48,360 --> 00:15:52,640 Speaker 2: into derivative analysis? Where are we twelve months out on SPX. 344 00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:55,800 Speaker 1: Tom, I'm so lucky because I don't have to put 345 00:15:55,840 --> 00:15:57,680 Speaker 1: out an S ANDP target. That's the job of my 346 00:15:57,880 --> 00:16:01,800 Speaker 1: dear friend Laurie Calvasina. You know, she has the hardest 347 00:16:01,880 --> 00:16:03,480 Speaker 1: job in the world. I just get to talk about 348 00:16:03,520 --> 00:16:04,600 Speaker 1: the derivatives market. 349 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:09,400 Speaker 3: Okay, well we'll get Kelvusina. We're gonna Jamie, thank you 350 00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:09,760 Speaker 3: so much. 351 00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:12,840 Speaker 2: Ammy with Silverman, I'm busting her chops with RBC Capital 352 00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:13,520 Speaker 2: Moneys million. 353 00:16:16,800 --> 00:16:17,560 Speaker 3: This is a joy. 354 00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:20,920 Speaker 2: What happens, folks, is if you're managing money and you 355 00:16:21,000 --> 00:16:26,040 Speaker 2: get past one trillion dollars, your mind changes, Your brain changes. 356 00:16:26,080 --> 00:16:29,000 Speaker 2: And only Chris Alman is grounded. He's with a California 357 00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:32,280 Speaker 2: State teacher's retirement system. We're thrilled to get join us 358 00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:34,440 Speaker 2: in studio. How much do you manage this week? 359 00:16:34,600 --> 00:16:37,440 Speaker 9: I mean, Tom, come on three hundred and thirty billion, Okay, 360 00:16:37,520 --> 00:16:40,040 Speaker 9: three hundred and thirty billion. And he's grounded. 361 00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:42,320 Speaker 2: And what I love about him at the back end 362 00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:45,240 Speaker 2: of his note and he's right on tune with a 363 00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:48,520 Speaker 2: calendar selling May and go away. 364 00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:51,240 Speaker 3: Really do you feel that? I? 365 00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:54,280 Speaker 9: You know, I the old adages, and we all three 366 00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:58,440 Speaker 9: understand the old adages. No shot there, but still are 367 00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:00,520 Speaker 9: in play. And I really wonder Tom. I mean, the 368 00:17:00,560 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 9: market has come up so much this year, it's nuts. 369 00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:03,320 Speaker 3: Okay. 370 00:17:03,760 --> 00:17:07,480 Speaker 2: Jason Furman out with a great, great endowment view. He's 371 00:17:07,480 --> 00:17:10,840 Speaker 2: got like twenty thirty colleges, and they're all doing single 372 00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:13,320 Speaker 2: digit return, even the best ones I barely do in 373 00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:19,040 Speaker 2: double digit return. Do you manage for total return for 374 00:17:19,119 --> 00:17:22,320 Speaker 2: the best outcome you can get, or do you manage 375 00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:25,159 Speaker 2: to an actuarial assumption of seven or eight. 376 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:26,840 Speaker 6: Percent acturoyal assumption? 377 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:29,880 Speaker 9: And so we're different, and that's why our outset allocation 378 00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:32,480 Speaker 9: is different than the endowments. Number One, I can't go 379 00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:34,720 Speaker 9: out and hit you up for a big contribution just 380 00:17:34,760 --> 00:17:39,080 Speaker 9: to help boost my fund Lisa. Yeah, well, and we 381 00:17:39,160 --> 00:17:42,640 Speaker 9: generally are looking at trying to make that seven as 382 00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:43,359 Speaker 9: a pace per. 383 00:17:43,280 --> 00:17:44,240 Speaker 6: Mile in a marathon. 384 00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:48,000 Speaker 9: It is literally a thirty year outlook for us because 385 00:17:48,000 --> 00:17:49,080 Speaker 9: teachers live so long. 386 00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:51,800 Speaker 6: So I use fixed income where they don't. 387 00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:52,240 Speaker 3: I don't. 388 00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:56,000 Speaker 9: I have only fifty percent in privates, only fifty while 389 00:17:56,040 --> 00:17:58,760 Speaker 9: they can be up to eighty because they can handle illiquidity. 390 00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:02,280 Speaker 4: So what is the allocation of the state of California 391 00:18:02,359 --> 00:18:04,760 Speaker 4: these days? And maybe how how has it changed? 392 00:18:05,160 --> 00:18:07,640 Speaker 9: Yeah, well, the state of California, You and I bought 393 00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:10,480 Speaker 9: a lot of missile bonds. Yeah, they're in an interesting position, 394 00:18:10,520 --> 00:18:13,280 Speaker 9: but in terms of calsters, we're still pretty close to 395 00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:17,200 Speaker 9: our long term seventy thirty roughly, so you know eighty 396 00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:20,879 Speaker 9: twenty kind of asset allocation, got about forty five percent, 397 00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:24,480 Speaker 9: and fixed or in equities. We've got fifteen in private equity, 398 00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:25,800 Speaker 9: fifteen in real estate. 399 00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:27,000 Speaker 6: Those haven't moved just. 400 00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:31,000 Speaker 9: Because those markets are frozen. We're about twelve in fixed income, 401 00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:33,719 Speaker 9: but fixed incomes hiding in other parts of the portfolio. 402 00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:37,639 Speaker 9: We have inflation sensitive at seven. And then another asset 403 00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:40,960 Speaker 9: category that's fairly new, called risk mitigating strategies. It's about 404 00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:42,399 Speaker 9: eight percent almost ten percent. 405 00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:45,720 Speaker 2: Risk mitigating strategy is when you yelled on the hallway, 406 00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:49,080 Speaker 2: empty the dishwasher and the child. 407 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:51,360 Speaker 3: That's a risk mitigating strategy exactly. 408 00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:53,920 Speaker 5: Chris, what do you make of this market? I think 409 00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:54,760 Speaker 5: a lot of folks. 410 00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:55,840 Speaker 4: When they look at the equity markets, I mean, we 411 00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:58,280 Speaker 4: had this big run off of those lows in October. 412 00:18:58,760 --> 00:19:01,080 Speaker 5: You know, earnings are good, but are they that good 413 00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:03,280 Speaker 5: to support this market? How do you feel about just 414 00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:05,120 Speaker 5: kind of where we are in this market here? 415 00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:06,040 Speaker 6: I am surprised. 416 00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:08,159 Speaker 9: I'm going around New York this week talking to my 417 00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:11,240 Speaker 9: private equity partners and they are telling me that business 418 00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:15,040 Speaker 9: is so strong. Every airport I went through was absolutely packed. 419 00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:17,920 Speaker 9: Every plane was packed, every restaurant in New York. I 420 00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:20,760 Speaker 9: can't believe how busy Manhattan is. It's not true in 421 00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:23,640 Speaker 9: San Francisco, not true on the West coast. But streets 422 00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:26,200 Speaker 9: are busy again. So the economy is strong, the earnings 423 00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:26,520 Speaker 9: are real. 424 00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:27,600 Speaker 3: Paul's a let on this. 425 00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:32,480 Speaker 2: Why Ken Griffin's building a new tower south of the 426 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:34,760 Speaker 2: Diamond Tower. We got the Diamond Tower, we got the 427 00:19:35,359 --> 00:19:38,119 Speaker 2: Ken Griffin Tower. New York seems to have a pop 428 00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:41,200 Speaker 2: to it. I get it. And that other geography is 429 00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:44,240 Speaker 2: not just San Francisco, but say you know, smaller cities 430 00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:44,720 Speaker 2: as well. 431 00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:46,520 Speaker 3: They're basically flat on their back. 432 00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:50,200 Speaker 6: Is it work from home? Why it is work from home? Tom? 433 00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:52,119 Speaker 6: And it's changing the nature. 434 00:19:52,280 --> 00:19:55,080 Speaker 9: You know, when I talked to not surprising private equity 435 00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:58,560 Speaker 9: wants people back four days and really wink wink, five days. No, 436 00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:01,040 Speaker 9: on the West coast, that's not truly. So we're two 437 00:20:01,119 --> 00:20:04,600 Speaker 9: days a week and that's yeah. They really pushed back 438 00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:06,280 Speaker 9: on even four days a week. 439 00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:06,880 Speaker 3: Look at tech. 440 00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:10,280 Speaker 9: So I think the thing is shocks me about this market, 441 00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:12,359 Speaker 9: and you guys talk about it a lot. The market 442 00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:15,240 Speaker 9: was looking for six cuts just four months ago. Now 443 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:18,520 Speaker 9: they're talking about maybe one and if anything, a rate 444 00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:21,560 Speaker 9: hype and it's taken it in stride. So yep, I 445 00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:24,280 Speaker 9: think it's strong earnings, it's the base of the market. 446 00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:27,119 Speaker 9: And then it's all this change in AI that AI, 447 00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:30,679 Speaker 9: whether it's the steam engine, maybe the light bulb, but 448 00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:33,439 Speaker 9: AI is transformational and they're betting the farm on it. 449 00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:35,520 Speaker 4: Yeah, that's that's kind of what I hear. So all right, 450 00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:37,240 Speaker 4: we're kind of getting right into the teeth of the 451 00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:40,320 Speaker 4: earning season here, Chris. What are you looking for? What 452 00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:42,080 Speaker 4: do you think the market needs to see? Do we 453 00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:45,200 Speaker 4: need to see earningsessments go higher to support this market? 454 00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:47,359 Speaker 4: Do we just need to see nobody blowing up? What 455 00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:48,200 Speaker 4: do you think we need to see? 456 00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:50,520 Speaker 6: I think nobody blowing up? And you know earnings are 457 00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:51,440 Speaker 6: a game. Now, come on? 458 00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:54,800 Speaker 9: How come every quarter all the companies beat their earning 459 00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:57,960 Speaker 9: sestments Because it's gamed and we need to stop looking 460 00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:00,679 Speaker 9: past earnings. We need to really look at the P ratio. 461 00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:04,080 Speaker 9: Is still reasonable not price to perfection like I thought 462 00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:05,960 Speaker 9: it was at the start of the year. Earnings has 463 00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:08,439 Speaker 9: the e has come back up to match the price? 464 00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:11,960 Speaker 9: So we're okay. Is the market got more up upside. 465 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:14,520 Speaker 9: That's why I think Tom's selling May and go Away 466 00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:15,359 Speaker 9: are an election? 467 00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:20,280 Speaker 2: Yere? Are you getting pressure from Karen or William? These 468 00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:22,399 Speaker 2: are the first names of the board members of Kelster. 469 00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:24,359 Speaker 2: Fiona's trouble. 470 00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:27,879 Speaker 3: She's in the meeting. She's just impossible. Harry is a 471 00:21:28,119 --> 00:21:29,359 Speaker 3: is a board. 472 00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:32,480 Speaker 2: Share k through twelve classroom teacher. Are they pounding the 473 00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:35,080 Speaker 2: table and saying, why don't you own some of these 474 00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:37,040 Speaker 2: tech darlings of California? 475 00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:39,080 Speaker 3: Are they? Are they just screaming at your. 476 00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:40,960 Speaker 6: Own war of the big boys right now? 477 00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:43,560 Speaker 9: Tom, They're all pounding the table and waving goodbye because 478 00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:46,639 Speaker 9: I'm I'm retiring about sixty days. 479 00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:48,119 Speaker 6: They're great people. 480 00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:49,159 Speaker 5: I thought he was on this. 481 00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:51,520 Speaker 9: Is this a retirement tour? Is this like the he's 482 00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:55,440 Speaker 9: went on a retirement tour for three years? Hey, you're 483 00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:59,520 Speaker 9: one to talk, Tom, come on, thank you so? But no, realistically, 484 00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:02,920 Speaker 9: they saw to the earth people and they are not worried. 485 00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:03,960 Speaker 6: They're worried about. 486 00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:06,399 Speaker 9: The overexposure to tech because tech just isn't in our 487 00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:09,280 Speaker 9: equity portfolio. It's in our private equity portfolio. It's even 488 00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:12,639 Speaker 9: in our real estate portfolio, in our infrastructure portfolio. When 489 00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:16,280 Speaker 9: you look at the energy demand on tech, so they're 490 00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:18,760 Speaker 9: not worried. What they're worried about is, let's you know, 491 00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:20,560 Speaker 9: this year is a good year. Let's try to get 492 00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:24,960 Speaker 9: to seven. Let's balance the portfolio, Let's have diversification is 493 00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:26,920 Speaker 9: still the name of the game for us. We've got 494 00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:29,359 Speaker 9: to be balanced. So it's not just put the metal 495 00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:32,520 Speaker 9: to the floor. Let's have a steady seven overtime. And yes, 496 00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:33,960 Speaker 9: they are very focused on that. 497 00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:37,840 Speaker 2: The cheap shot idea is everybody's leaving California. 498 00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:39,160 Speaker 3: Paul's living this in real time. 499 00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:42,240 Speaker 2: He's got kids prospering out there, and I hear a 500 00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:45,320 Speaker 2: lot of people with a terrific buzz about Los Angeles. 501 00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:48,879 Speaker 2: Ed Ludlow's really big on a recovering San Francisco. You know, 502 00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:52,800 Speaker 2: things are healing and all that push against the gloom 503 00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:55,400 Speaker 2: on the great state of California. 504 00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:57,040 Speaker 3: What's California doing. 505 00:22:56,880 --> 00:23:01,600 Speaker 2: In the future to stabilize their many political social issues. 506 00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:04,040 Speaker 9: Well, I think that's part of the challenge for the state. 507 00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:06,720 Speaker 9: I'm not a political guy. I'm a father and I've 508 00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:10,639 Speaker 9: got three daughters that are in their early thirties. Buying 509 00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:13,760 Speaker 9: a home is really really difficult. So just like anywhere 510 00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:17,320 Speaker 9: in a nice state with great weather. Home affordability is 511 00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:20,080 Speaker 9: a huge problem. Water We have plenty of it this year, 512 00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:22,520 Speaker 9: but water is going to be a long term problem. 513 00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:24,760 Speaker 9: And I think, just like a lot of places in 514 00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:27,119 Speaker 9: our country, politics really takes a lot of work. We 515 00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:30,200 Speaker 9: need people in the middle who will talk. And I'm 516 00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:32,720 Speaker 9: just looking at that my associations here with New York 517 00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:35,639 Speaker 9: and with London. I want to care about the financial markets, 518 00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:38,640 Speaker 9: tom but California, still in the West Coast, is still 519 00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:41,679 Speaker 9: going to thrive. It is the home of innovation, and 520 00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:44,760 Speaker 9: you're going to see massive changes in what we do 521 00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:46,400 Speaker 9: and how we operate in the next five years. 522 00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:48,200 Speaker 2: Get more one more in here. But I just want 523 00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:52,359 Speaker 2: to compare and contrast. If the Rochester Institute of Technology 524 00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:55,480 Speaker 2: in February, you get up and you have to walk 525 00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:59,000 Speaker 2: the quarter mile, which is basically like an ice station 526 00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:00,680 Speaker 2: zebra when you're at the. 527 00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:04,280 Speaker 3: Top of the Arctic. He's getting up. It's Santa Barbara. 528 00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:09,920 Speaker 6: What another seventy five degree day. I wish, I wish. No, 529 00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:11,360 Speaker 6: I'm a Sacramento but. 530 00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:13,680 Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, but I mean another great I mean one 531 00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:16,040 Speaker 4: of the greatest things, arguably about the state of California 532 00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:16,360 Speaker 4: is a. 533 00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:18,159 Speaker 5: University system exactly. 534 00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:21,920 Speaker 4: I mean, and it's just extraordinary up and down the state, 535 00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:25,280 Speaker 4: just extraordiny. How is the university system these days in California. 536 00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:28,439 Speaker 9: No, it's doing excellent. It is amazing. And you know 537 00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:30,880 Speaker 9: you got to throw in there. You've still got Stanford. Yep, 538 00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:34,520 Speaker 9: you've got my son. Yeah, there you go, Santa Clara, 539 00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:37,560 Speaker 9: You've got cal Poly and cal Poly, Sellen, Sabispo. 540 00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:39,439 Speaker 6: You've got an amazing system. 541 00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:42,960 Speaker 9: So I think I can't emphasize enough because I get 542 00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:46,040 Speaker 9: it about education. You've got to invest in education and 543 00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:49,359 Speaker 9: focus on education for the younger workforce, and that's what's 544 00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:50,120 Speaker 9: needed in America. 545 00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:53,439 Speaker 4: Chris, you're retiring in sixty days, right, I mean twenty 546 00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:56,080 Speaker 4: four years at cal Stars before that at Washington Say Pension. 547 00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:58,679 Speaker 5: You've done it all, You've seen it all. Heck of 548 00:24:58,680 --> 00:24:59,520 Speaker 5: a run there, my friend. 549 00:24:59,520 --> 00:24:59,840 Speaker 3: Thank you. 550 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:02,320 Speaker 9: It's been a marathon. It has been a rollercoaster ride. 551 00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:04,359 Speaker 9: And I'm not getting off. I'm going to stay in 552 00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:06,320 Speaker 9: the business and I'll stay active, but it's time to 553 00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:07,920 Speaker 9: get out of government industream other things. 554 00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:09,360 Speaker 3: Thank you so much. 555 00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:13,280 Speaker 2: With Kelsters here this morning, I'm making that actual assumption 556 00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:17,280 Speaker 2: which most of us aren't fortunate enough to do. That's 557 00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:19,199 Speaker 2: really it's the whole thing we can devote to, is 558 00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:23,240 Speaker 2: to the retirement shortfall, if you will, of America coming 559 00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:25,840 Speaker 2: off of ARISA of nineteen seventy four. 560 00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:40,680 Speaker 10: It's been painful. Look at the front pages around the world. 561 00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:43,080 Speaker 10: At least I've been so buried reading Amanda Line and 562 00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:45,960 Speaker 10: this forty pages I didn't even look at the newspapers. 563 00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:47,879 Speaker 5: What do you have right? 564 00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:50,720 Speaker 11: We're starting with buyers being back in control in the 565 00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:54,000 Speaker 11: housing market, but only for luxury homes. Okay, this is 566 00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:56,440 Speaker 11: from realtor dot Com. In March, as Shriff homes that 567 00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:59,080 Speaker 11: were priced over five million, they had their price reduced. 568 00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:01,560 Speaker 11: That was seven point eight percent, which is up a 569 00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:04,000 Speaker 11: percent from March of twenty three, up three percent from 570 00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:06,480 Speaker 11: March of twenty twenty two. The area with the largest 571 00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:09,920 Speaker 11: share of price reduction was Austin, Texas, and that's really 572 00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:11,480 Speaker 11: a big change because that's where a lot of people 573 00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:14,960 Speaker 11: went to when remote work kicked in other markets seeing 574 00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:18,199 Speaker 11: those big price cuts for the luxury market. Tampa, Florida, 575 00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:21,399 Speaker 11: also Phoenix, and the Wall Street Journal they spoke with 576 00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:23,240 Speaker 11: this family who had this Phoenix home. It was priced 577 00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:28,439 Speaker 11: for eleven million, Okay, it had five bedrooms, upscale, Arcadian neighborhood, pool, 578 00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:29,600 Speaker 11: game room. 579 00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:31,280 Speaker 5: Bar, Yes, fully stocked. 580 00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:34,800 Speaker 11: Now cutting the price to eight point seven millions. So 581 00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:37,200 Speaker 11: these luxury homes, they're starting to come down in price. 582 00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:38,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, this, I. 583 00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:40,760 Speaker 2: Don't know what to make of it. In Jay Hatfield, 584 00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:44,040 Speaker 2: I thought was great about this, folks. The thing I'm 585 00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:48,439 Speaker 2: most unsure about is work from home. Yeah, I don't. 586 00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:52,320 Speaker 2: I don't have my bearings on it. Jay Epfield's telling 587 00:26:52,359 --> 00:26:54,040 Speaker 2: me you're gonna be fired from home. 588 00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:57,040 Speaker 3: I don't know. Nick bloom Out at Stanford saying. 589 00:26:56,800 --> 00:26:59,439 Speaker 5: Move to Phoenix, Yeah, I know, and I at Lisa. 590 00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:02,480 Speaker 2: It's the single thing right now, folks, I feel the 591 00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:03,639 Speaker 2: most unsure about. 592 00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:05,480 Speaker 11: Yeah, no, it's true, It's true. 593 00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:07,679 Speaker 5: All right, good stuff. So we get the luxury home 594 00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:10,120 Speaker 5: markets pulling back a little bit. Fine, well, the upper. 595 00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:11,680 Speaker 3: West Side side. 596 00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:12,359 Speaker 5: I don't know if. 597 00:27:15,280 --> 00:27:19,720 Speaker 11: Let's stick with Phoenix next. All right, Electric vehicles we 598 00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:22,240 Speaker 11: talk about it all the time, right range anxiety. 599 00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:23,359 Speaker 5: This is the biggest thing. 600 00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:24,920 Speaker 11: For people who are kind of on the fence about 601 00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:28,719 Speaker 11: buying evs. Well, Google has announced its Maps app is 602 00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:30,920 Speaker 11: going to have something in it that's going to help 603 00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:35,640 Speaker 11: those people find chargers, whether it's parking lots, garages, real 604 00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:38,760 Speaker 11: time information, how many ports are there, how many, how 605 00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:39,200 Speaker 11: much the. 606 00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:40,720 Speaker 5: Charging speed is there. 607 00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:43,600 Speaker 11: It's going to help you find on the longer trips. 608 00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:47,000 Speaker 11: They actually did it with with ways last month, but 609 00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:49,159 Speaker 11: it's really supposed to give that boost because a lot 610 00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:50,720 Speaker 11: of people still I. 611 00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:53,160 Speaker 5: Think that's gonna be big. I'm not an evy person yet. 612 00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:54,679 Speaker 4: I mean maybe at some point I'll get there, but 613 00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:57,679 Speaker 4: the folks I do talk to that is an issue 614 00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:00,000 Speaker 4: kind of like when at where are the charging stations? 615 00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:02,800 Speaker 4: I get there and they say there's going to be 616 00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:06,359 Speaker 4: eight or twelve pods, four of which are out of correct, 617 00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:09,320 Speaker 4: and then so the lines are ridiculous, in which case 618 00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:11,320 Speaker 4: your entire plans are kind of screwed. 619 00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:13,359 Speaker 5: And then it's not like pulling up to the you know, 620 00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:14,080 Speaker 5: excell on station. 621 00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:19,920 Speaker 2: Seriously, folks, We've got a guy, surveillance evy guru, Edward Ludlow, 622 00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:22,800 Speaker 2: who's living this all right now. We're trying to get 623 00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:25,120 Speaker 2: him on the show tomorrow, as people have been very difficult, 624 00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:27,240 Speaker 2: but we're trying to get him on the show tom 625 00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:29,320 Speaker 2: to get head load. You know, it's seven fifty two, 626 00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:31,919 Speaker 2: come on six five it's four to fifty two am. 627 00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:33,560 Speaker 3: He's in his beauty rest, but he's. 628 00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:34,919 Speaker 11: Got to drive out the tesla out there. 629 00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:36,360 Speaker 5: I mean the twice of gas. 630 00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:37,000 Speaker 8: In dif Francisco. 631 00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:39,400 Speaker 5: That's a great point Texas. 632 00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:42,800 Speaker 3: Okay, I will have to see. I'm not All I 633 00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:44,440 Speaker 3: see is tesla's. I don't see anything else. 634 00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:46,440 Speaker 5: No, I see a ribbon. I see the trucks around. 635 00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:49,400 Speaker 3: Electric buses really work, I really. 636 00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:52,720 Speaker 4: Get okayon delivery things, the electric delivery things are all there. 637 00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:54,120 Speaker 5: Yeah, okay, okay. 638 00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:59,160 Speaker 11: Next, they're growing, all right, with also growing Starbucks unionized workers. Okay, 639 00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:02,760 Speaker 11: So Bloomberg aw did this analysis. They took National Labor 640 00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:05,480 Speaker 11: Relations Board election election data and they found out that 641 00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:09,600 Speaker 11: unions have organized more than ten thousand workers at Starbucks 642 00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:11,160 Speaker 11: locations nationwide. 643 00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:12,200 Speaker 8: March was a big month. 644 00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:15,520 Speaker 11: They saw twenty one union wins. They resulted in three 645 00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:20,480 Speaker 11: hundred and seventy six newly union represented Barista's shift up supervisors. 646 00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:21,840 Speaker 11: So you see kind of this growth. 647 00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:24,440 Speaker 3: That's store my store cacolating. 648 00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:25,240 Speaker 11: Yeah, carcolating. 649 00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:29,520 Speaker 3: I like that coffee. Most of the autists doesn't know 650 00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:30,280 Speaker 3: what percolating. 651 00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:31,600 Speaker 8: I have a percolator. 652 00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:36,160 Speaker 2: My grandmother had the coffee pot and an incredibly single 653 00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:39,000 Speaker 2: simple kitchen with the Parliament cigarette out of her mouth. 654 00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:40,760 Speaker 3: Yep, with Kurt Dowdy. 655 00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:44,440 Speaker 2: In Boston Red Sox baseball, and i'd mean mezz verie 656 00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:47,840 Speaker 2: by the one thing moving in the kitchen, the percolator. 657 00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:51,400 Speaker 6: There we go, calculator. But yeah, so union's growing. 658 00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:53,800 Speaker 8: And then finally I know this is it. 659 00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:56,040 Speaker 11: Tom We have to switch up the music selection tomorrow 660 00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:58,280 Speaker 11: because Taylor Swift's latest album drops on. 661 00:29:58,320 --> 00:30:01,200 Speaker 5: I saw that it's not released. It drops, it drops, 662 00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:01,800 Speaker 5: it drops. 663 00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:04,320 Speaker 2: That's how the kids hope she's with Jack Antonoff again 664 00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:06,480 Speaker 2: in the Nationals. I love what they've been doing the 665 00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:08,800 Speaker 2: National I should say I love what they do and 666 00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:11,400 Speaker 2: what I find with Taylor, and you know, I have 667 00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:14,160 Speaker 2: a huge respect for her. But what I know is 668 00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:17,000 Speaker 2: on that album there'll be one song that I will 669 00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:21,720 Speaker 2: find jaw dropping, just one, just one. I find one 670 00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:25,200 Speaker 2: song always on the album that I just just find 671 00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:25,840 Speaker 2: jaw dropping. 672 00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:27,520 Speaker 11: Well, the one thing that people say they like about, 673 00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:28,960 Speaker 11: or what the New York Times is saying, is that 674 00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:30,400 Speaker 11: it's going to be on vinyl CD. 675 00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:32,080 Speaker 5: Even don't get me going out. 676 00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:37,040 Speaker 2: You know, I just acquired Vinyl Records for one of 677 00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:37,720 Speaker 2: the offspring. 678 00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:39,360 Speaker 11: Oh, it's coming back. 679 00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:41,560 Speaker 3: And I said, are you kidding me? We got rid 680 00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:44,520 Speaker 3: of vice and she's like, that's all people want they 681 00:30:44,600 --> 00:30:47,280 Speaker 3: want at home. 682 00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:50,520 Speaker 11: No, my dad has a huge I mean thousands when 683 00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:52,080 Speaker 11: I say thousands of records. 684 00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:54,400 Speaker 3: Oh, you got to get a table, rates and crates 685 00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:55,760 Speaker 3: start with the doors. 686 00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:59,760 Speaker 5: L a woman, Yeah, everything, every do you do this? 687 00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:02,800 Speaker 4: No, but my daughter just recently for a gift gave 688 00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:06,840 Speaker 4: me some old Bruce albums Vinyl and I had them 689 00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:07,440 Speaker 4: back in the day. 690 00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:11,960 Speaker 3: Ida No, on YouTube, I'm live chat. 691 00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:14,960 Speaker 2: I need you guys on live chat on YouTube right 692 00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:19,959 Speaker 2: now to live chat in and tell me about Vinyl. 693 00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:22,280 Speaker 3: Someone. I think this is in my future. 694 00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:23,200 Speaker 5: What's the attraction? 695 00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:26,680 Speaker 2: The offspring is going to have a Vinyl record and 696 00:31:26,720 --> 00:31:28,600 Speaker 2: I'm not going to have a record player to play that. 697 00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:32,040 Speaker 3: I just could have a you know, it's a coaster. 698 00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:36,800 Speaker 2: Lisa Mateo with the newspapers, Yep, thank you. This is 699 00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:41,880 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, 700 00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:45,680 Speaker 2: and international relations. You can also watch the show live 701 00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:50,240 Speaker 2: on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to 702 00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:53,760 Speaker 2: see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am 703 00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:57,840 Speaker 2: Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe 704 00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:01,600 Speaker 2: to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen, 705 00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:05,600 Speaker 2: and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the 706 00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:07,120 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business app.