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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites presented by Draft Kings. The crown

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Speaker 1: is yours. We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz,

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Speaker 1: back at it on this fine Tuesday morning. Kendra Middleton

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Speaker 1: with me as she always is, in a fill in

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Speaker 1: for our brand new show, Daddy Stucky My Buckets. Compadre

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Speaker 1: Matt Moore is joining us. What a treat. On today's episode,

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Speaker 1: We've got our plant the Flag game for week sixteen

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Speaker 1: official Thursday Night Football preview. We got a good one

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Speaker 1: rams Seahawks, and of course the main event Evans Tuesday Primer.

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Speaker 1: Congrats again to Stucky and his family. We will welcome

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Speaker 1: him back with open arms as soon as he has

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Speaker 1: done changing those stinky, dirty diapers. Matt Moore, welcome to

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Speaker 1: the program. Thanks for joining us. How'd they convince you

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Speaker 1: to do this?

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Speaker 2: Uh?

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Speaker 3: They asked me you want to do this? And I said,

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Speaker 3: of course, of course I want to do this. I'm

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Speaker 3: so excited to be on with Kendra. I love doing

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Speaker 3: everything with you, Brandon. I love the show. It's so terrific.

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Speaker 3: So excited for Stucky as a It's really gonna be

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Speaker 3: fun to watch him as a rookie as a as

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Speaker 3: a rookie here because like I'm a veteran dad, like

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Speaker 3: I've I've been around the block. I know like how

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Speaker 3: to fool the cornerbacks, i know how to play zone.

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Speaker 3: It's gonna be really fun watching him get completely overwhelmed

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Speaker 3: but very excited to be on with you guys and

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Speaker 3: talks some football this week.

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Speaker 1: Any question, he's at that level. I'm kind of like

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Speaker 1: in my prime. But yeah, Stucky has many lessons to

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Speaker 1: learn about juggling, not only juggling fatherhood, but trying to

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Speaker 1: watch sports and bet on sports. It makes it all

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Speaker 1: lot more complicated. I'm very curious to see how that

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Speaker 1: lands for Stucky, and we'll see as it unfolds.

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Speaker 2: My question is, do we think he names the kid

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Speaker 2: Stucky two, or because that's his user name, he had

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Speaker 2: to go with Stucky three.

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Speaker 3: That's a good question. I think it's I think it's probably.

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Speaker 3: I would say that it's likely Stucky three. I would

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Speaker 3: have to say Stucky three from this perspective, although I

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Speaker 3: would say that he might be naming him after Lamar Jackson.

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Speaker 3: That would not be a surprising name for him.

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Speaker 4: Just if we all had a Jackson.

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Speaker 3: Could you amount he should name him fade the Chiefs

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Speaker 3: because that's what he does every damn week, and that

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Speaker 3: like give the child what you love, give the more

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Speaker 3: than anything.

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Speaker 1: Mister Moore. He did fade the Chiefs again and again

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Speaker 1: and again until we went head to head last week,

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Speaker 1: right before little Stucky three was born, went head to head.

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Speaker 1: I took the Chargers plus the five and a half

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Speaker 1: he was on Kansas City. He said, now's the time

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Speaker 1: to bet him. And I still have not been able

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Speaker 1: to give him shit for this because he went and

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Speaker 1: had a kid. You know, he's pretty convenient Stucky, pretty convenient.

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Speaker 4: Stucky three.

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Speaker 2: But you don't know that I have a dog Jackson.

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Speaker 2: Kravitz has a dog Jackson. So if Stucky named Stucky

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Speaker 2: three Jackson, that would really be the drive fuck.

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Speaker 1: Dog, Matt, Do you happen to have a dog named Jackson,

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Speaker 1: because that would really complete the trifecta here.

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Speaker 3: As a matter of it, No, I don't have. I

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Speaker 3: do not have a dog named dog named Jackson. I

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Speaker 3: wish I had a dog named Jackson. Now, although if

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Speaker 3: it's a dog named Jackson, I'm trying to think about,

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Speaker 3: like what the comparison would be. Does he like almost

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Speaker 3: reach the toy when you throw it and then completely

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Speaker 3: slam his head into the ground and then fall over.

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Speaker 3: Is that what happens is that he just like crips

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Speaker 3: on himself and failed.

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Speaker 2: Named after Duval County, so I can't really get into

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Speaker 2: what he's up to.

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Speaker 1: You know what the crazy part is too. I don't

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Speaker 1: want to make this whole podcast about our dog's name,

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Speaker 1: but my dog is named after Jacksonville as well. It

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Speaker 1: was the first trip that my wife and I took

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Speaker 1: together was to the city of Jacksonville, and so when

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Speaker 1: we got a dog, we named him Jackson after Jacksonville.

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Speaker 1: So not only two dogs named Jackson, they're both.

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Speaker 3: That's guys, Like, I know that we're running a long

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Speaker 3: but can you guys talk about what it's like having

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Speaker 3: dogs that do meth in the house?

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Speaker 1: Is that just like? Yeah, I didn't mention that my

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Speaker 1: mini Aussie wears jorts also.

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Speaker 5: Right in the house, right.

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Speaker 4: Many Aussies? Two is nuts?

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Speaker 2: That's nuts, that's wild anyways, the odds it's almost the

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Speaker 2: color too.

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Speaker 4: They're both like American shepherds nuts.

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Speaker 1: It's almost like they did this on purpose, at action

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Speaker 1: for some reason. So the Dolphins joined the Chiefs as

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Speaker 1: a pair of newly minted eliminated teams in the AFC.

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Speaker 1: The Steelers win twenty eight to fifteen in a pretty

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Speaker 1: dull Monday night football game. We don't have to spend

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Speaker 1: much time on this, Kendra, because I find both of

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Speaker 1: these teams pretty boring at this point. But anything of

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Speaker 1: interest to you from last night?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I have two takeaways. One Two A sucks especially

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Speaker 2: in the cold. That experiment needs to be over. Potentially

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Speaker 2: the second worst quarterback contract in the NFL right now,

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Speaker 2: behind he who shall not be named. Two the Chiefs

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Speaker 2: are I'm sorry the Steelers. I was impressed by them.

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Speaker 2: If they play the way that they did last night

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Speaker 2: and Aaron Rodgers can elevate the team, take the check down,

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Speaker 2: they can keep the run game as strong as it

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Speaker 2: was last night.

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Speaker 4: And they get TJ.

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Speaker 2: Watt back, this could be a team that spoils somebody

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Speaker 2: in a wild card round.

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Speaker 4: I was impressed by the Steelers last night.

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Speaker 2: I The underdog mentality that they've been able to kind

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Speaker 2: of just take advantage of has done wonders for them.

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Speaker 4: And I got to stop like fading Mike.

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Speaker 2: Tomlin to eventually have a less than five hundred season

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Speaker 2: because it's kicking my ass.

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Speaker 1: Year. It doesn't matter, doesn't matter whose quarterback is.

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Speaker 4: Pittsburgh tolerates just above middling.

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Speaker 2: Like if he were somewhere like a New England, like

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Speaker 2: a New York, like a Dallas, and he was just

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Speaker 2: above middling for this long, you cannot tell me that

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Speaker 2: he would be employed. I love that he's a players coach.

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Speaker 2: I love him as a person. I love him as

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Speaker 2: a coach. I love his interviews. I think he's a

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Speaker 2: credible coach. But he has just above like Readden, the

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Speaker 2: line above middling for far too long for some major markets.

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Speaker 2: I think that that's how he continues to do it

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Speaker 2: every single year. And the fact that playing in the

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Speaker 2: cold and having, like you know, a raw, raw team

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Speaker 2: of guys that you hype up, I think that that helps.

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Speaker 1: I need to bring Evan in for a moment because

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Speaker 1: I saw this flash across the screen last night, Kendra.

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Speaker 1: I saw you tweet a tweet about this as well.

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Speaker 1: I did not know this, and maybe it was in

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Speaker 1: the primer and I didn't scroll all the way down

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Speaker 1: to the bottom, so this could be on me. But

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Speaker 1: I did not know until last night that Mike Tomlin

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Speaker 1: was undefeated on Monday Night Football, and that the Steelers

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Speaker 1: as an organization are twenty three and oh in their

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Speaker 1: last twenty three home games on Monday Night football. Evan,

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Speaker 1: was this information that we had? Why was I learning

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Speaker 1: about this as I'm watching the broadcast?

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Speaker 6: I do believe it was the first note in the

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Speaker 6: Steelers Dolphins.

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Speaker 1: Okay, great, we'll say that.

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Speaker 6: I'll also say this, and I am just such a

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Speaker 6: technical dude because of what I do for a living.

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Speaker 6: But they did lose on a Monday at home to

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Speaker 6: the Commanders, but that was in a COVID. Did they

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Speaker 6: move the game to a Monday so they have lost,

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Speaker 6: but on Monday Night Football?

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Speaker 1: In quotes with.

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Speaker 6: ESPN on the logo, go he's won that many games straight?

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Speaker 1: All right, I'll even know.

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Speaker 3: I love how Avan was like, was like, no, no,

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Speaker 3: it's it's hard to figure out. You couldn't have found

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Speaker 3: it unless you read the thing I said.

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Speaker 1: You you know, when it's at the top, it sort

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Speaker 1: of sneaks in there. I like the good stuff right

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Speaker 1: in the middle.

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Speaker 4: Even we're shitting on cravits today, I'm here for it.

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Speaker 3: It's great.

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Speaker 1: Well, I'm sure that we're not done doing that, don't

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Speaker 1: you worry. Let's get to our main dish for today.

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Speaker 1: The Packers lose Michael Parsons for the year with a

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Speaker 1: torn acl We've seen their Super Bowl odds shift because

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Speaker 1: of it. They're now fifteen to one to win the

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Speaker 1: whole thing, in line with the Patriots, slightly behind the Texans. Texans,

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Speaker 1: by the way, I did log that bet on action

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Speaker 1: at twelve to one to win the Super Bowl. Love

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Speaker 1: what I'm seeing from them, their offense now marrying up

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Speaker 1: with how good that defense is. That's the kind of

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Speaker 1: team that wins the Super Bowl, especially with how wide

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Speaker 1: open things are this year? Are the Packers still bettable

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Speaker 1: without their best pass rusher? Kendra? Where are you at

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Speaker 1: on Green Bay?

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Speaker 2: I got to look up their remaining schedule, but no,

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Speaker 2: as far as like the law right, so they're remaining

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Speaker 2: schedules at the Bears home against the Ravens and then

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Speaker 2: at the Vikings. Maybe you could get me to the

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Speaker 2: window on the Bears, just because of the divisional aspect

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Speaker 2: and the fact that I think that the Bears are

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Speaker 2: probably due to struggle a little bit here potentially, But

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Speaker 2: as far as long term value, I don't believe in

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Speaker 2: Jordan Love and let's be honest. The quarterback is what

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Speaker 2: puts asses in seats, It's what elevates your team and

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Speaker 2: what it's what puts your team over the edge.

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Speaker 4: But championships are won.

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Speaker 2: By defenses, and without a guy like that to you know,

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Speaker 2: create pressure and you know, reeks some havoc in the postseason.

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Speaker 4: I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I don't, I don't.

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Speaker 2: I can't get behind this team. I feel bad for

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Speaker 2: Stucky in his future. That's a massive blow because that

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Speaker 2: was such a good look from what.

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Speaker 4: He got in May. But I can't keept behind this team.

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Speaker 2: They're inconsistent, They lose to teams that they shouldn't once,

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Speaker 2: Like I said, I don't believe in Jordan Love and

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Speaker 2: losing a guy like that and Tucker Craft being on

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Speaker 2: IR that.

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Speaker 4: Was just like the heart and soul of your offense.

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Speaker 2: I think that they've just unfortunately taken too many blows

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Speaker 2: to be able to recover as far as like having

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Speaker 2: any long term aspirations, dealing.

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Speaker 1: With injuries on the offensive line as well. Looks like

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Speaker 1: Christian Watson might try and give it a go this week.

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Speaker 1: They are road favorites against the Chicago Bears. I don't

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Speaker 1: know about all that Matt, where do you land on

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Speaker 1: Green Bay with the shakeups to the roster.

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Speaker 3: I mean, look, the overall, the overall kind of look

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Speaker 3: here is still pretty strong for green Bay. And for

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Speaker 3: sure Parsons is an incredible player and losing him hurts.

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Speaker 3: Look how many times do we see teams, though, lose

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Speaker 3: a guy that's got big name, star value, who's not

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Speaker 3: a quarterback, and that team goes on to make a

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Speaker 3: run because it's like, well they're so banged up, who's not.

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Speaker 3: Look at this point in the season, like everybody's dealing

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Speaker 3: with all these injuries. Look at the Lions, the Pets.

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Speaker 3: Heads are falling off, Like there's got to be a

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Speaker 3: point where there's value on a team because of this perception.

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Speaker 3: This is like, this was the team that everyone loved

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Speaker 3: in preseason. This is the team that came out started

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Speaker 3: the season and everyone was like whoa, and then it

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Speaker 3: was like its prey actually good and then they've just

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Speaker 3: kind of kept chugging and they're in this kind of position.

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Speaker 3: I still think that there's there's probably a little bit

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Speaker 3: of value here to get back in on them, just

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Speaker 3: because like, look it is the I mean, look, they're

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Speaker 3: behind the eight ball. Here on pass rush EPA. Defensively,

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Speaker 3: that's a problem. That's a problem. You're gonna face some

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Speaker 3: pretty good quarterbacks in the playoffs. But if you're able

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Speaker 3: to position yourself into the right seat and you get

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Speaker 3: the right bracket, I still think that there's probably a

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Speaker 3: reason why every model, every metric, every number, every power

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Speaker 3: rating has continued to trust Green Bay. So I think

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Speaker 3: there's probably a little bit of value there.

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Speaker 1: Arsons has sixty four pressures on the season, eleven more

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Speaker 1: than any other player in the NFL, and the Packers

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Speaker 1: still rank sixteenth in sack percentage, and that number is

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Speaker 1: only gonna get worse with him not on the field

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Speaker 1: if you can't get after the quarterback. And now, and

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Speaker 1: that's just sack percentage, we're just talking about simply creating pressure.

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Speaker 1: You don't have to double anybody on the defense anymore.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna see those numbers, plummet. I worry about the

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Speaker 1: Packers in a loaded NFC, and I just think that

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Speaker 1: the NFC is just too tight to lose a player

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Speaker 1: like that when they really weren't great at getting after

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Speaker 1: the quarterback even with Parsons.

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Speaker 3: Okay, the Rams, no question right, the Rams are the

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Speaker 3: thunder of the NFL right now, where it's like everyone

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Speaker 3: just like looking up at me and like, damn, what's

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Speaker 3: to look like from up there? Who else are you?

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Speaker 1: Like?

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Speaker 3: Genuinely like, oh man, the.

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Speaker 2: Packers, See, this is what I was just gonna bring

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Speaker 2: to you. The only NFC teams in a playoff picture.

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Speaker 2: I think that the Packers could be eat right now,

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Speaker 2: Carolina and Dallas. That's literally it. Detroit would beat them,

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Speaker 2: San Francisco would beat them, Seattle would beat them, Tampa

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Speaker 2: Bay would beat them, Philly would beat them, Chicago question mark,

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Speaker 2: and then the Rams would beat the piss out of them.

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Speaker 2: So I unless they were to draw, you know, the

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Speaker 2: Panthers or Dallas, I don't see.

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Speaker 4: I don't see.

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Speaker 2: Them being able to beat any of these other NFC options.

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Speaker 3: What's your confidence level credits on if it's if it's

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Speaker 3: Packers at Eagles, what's your confidence level if that winds

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Speaker 3: up being the matchup?

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Speaker 1: When we already saw these two matchup this year, and

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Speaker 1: that was with a healthy Micah Parsons and the Eagles

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Speaker 1: got the best of them, it looks like Philly's back

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Speaker 1: on track. To me, it becomes a coin flip. Whereas

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Speaker 1: when Parsons was healthy. That's where I would lean the

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Speaker 1: way of Green Bay. So it's not like it knocks

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Speaker 1: them out of contention. It just knocks when I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: go back to the original question of are they still better,

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Speaker 1: I don't think they have a leg up on the

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Speaker 1: teams that are that are in that mix at the

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Speaker 1: top of the NFC.

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Speaker 4: I don't see two division games left.

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Speaker 1: Like to me, they're just as good now as.

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Speaker 3: What do we say on buckets about buying low rabbits.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but sometimes you just got to knowing to get

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Speaker 1: off the train.

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Speaker 2: I feel like it's gotta be this week against the Bears,

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Speaker 2: and then that it's probably it right.

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Speaker 1: I let's let's see how this goes against Chicago this week.

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Speaker 1: Who is talk about a all potential cell high team

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Speaker 1: and they've been like that for a lot of the season.

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Speaker 1: The Packers already beat the Chicago Bears. If the Bears

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Speaker 1: put it on them and and the Packers really struggle,

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Speaker 1: then and perhaps we've all avoided the the by low

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Speaker 1: on green Bay properly, or maybe you see something. I

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Speaker 1: would just wait to see what it looks like. Christmas

293
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Speaker 1: for the NFL just got a whole lot less interesting.

294
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Speaker 1: Jayden Daniels has been shut down by the Commanders, so

295
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Speaker 1: we'll get Prescott versus Mariota. The Cowboys, by the way,

296
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Speaker 1: eliminated from the playoffs. The Commanders eliminated from playoff contention.

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry. The Cowboys still have a one percent chance

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Speaker 1: according to the analytics to make the playoffs, so highly unlikely.

299
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Speaker 1: Lions Vikings, which is about halfway decent, but the Vikings

300
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Speaker 1: are out. Bo Nicks versus Gardner Minshew to wrap up

301
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Speaker 1: the day and the Chiefs are done, Kendra, how should

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Speaker 1: folks be handling their Christmas Day now that the NFL

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Speaker 1: looks like this?

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Speaker 2: I feel like, obviously, you're gonna probably watch the NBA

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Speaker 2: unless you're a sicko like us, Well like me, I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna probably have the dual screen. But NFL always always

307
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Speaker 2: takes the cake in my household. But maybe go touch

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Speaker 2: some grass, hang out with your family. It's it's the

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Speaker 2: perfect slate to kind of maybe log off first for the.

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Speaker 1: Jack Matt does, Does our other favorite sport get a

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Speaker 1: little leg up? Now?

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Speaker 3: Gonna be really embarrassing when the NFL once again murders

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Speaker 3: the NBA and ratings. You's gonna have with Gardner minshew,

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Speaker 3: it's gonna be it's gonna be really embarrassing when that happens.

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Speaker 3: But I look, I would say this that I just

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Speaker 3: don't know. There are bad football games, but bad football

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Speaker 3: games are decided by style, not based off of like

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Speaker 3: actual team quality. You can have a really competitive, fun

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Speaker 3: game between two pretty crappy franchises, and these teams are

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Speaker 3: obviously in rough shape, but i'd be they'll still be entertaining.

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Speaker 3: The key is to have it on while you're doing

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Speaker 3: something else, like if you're making Christmas dinner, like if

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Speaker 3: you're the cook in the house like I am. It's

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Speaker 3: great having these games on on like a side screen

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Speaker 3: while you're doing that, just to be able to like

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Speaker 3: look over and be like, oh, Gardner, minsh. You could

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Speaker 3: play the one good for him, that's the last that's

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Speaker 3: good for him. That's that is the way to approach Christmas.

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Speaker 3: Otherwise you can watch Victor Weben Yama not human. That's

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Speaker 3: also an option for it.

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Speaker 2: Yes, we feaning for this in July, just so you

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Speaker 2: guys now think about this. In the month of July,

333
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Speaker 2: we would be like I would take all three of

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Speaker 2: those games right now, just to feel something. Also embarrassing story.

335
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Speaker 2: I when my mom got divorced, she was in love

336
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Speaker 2: with Gardner Minshew. So I slid in Gardner Minshew's DMS

337
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Speaker 2: on my mom's behalf and he left me on red.

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Speaker 1: All right, that means we have to face.

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Speaker 3: I tried. I'm gonna get you a T shirt that

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Speaker 3: says I tried to hook my mom up with Gardner Minshew.

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Speaker 2: Look at Diego Puvia and freaking' THEO Vaughn and his mom.

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Speaker 4: So it could have been you could have you could

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Speaker 4: have been mister Middleton.

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Speaker 1: But here we are. Wow, any bigger loser than Diego Pavia?

345
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Speaker 1: This week the worst anyways, But our King Philip Rivers

346
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Speaker 1: set to start again for the Colts. That's gonna be

347
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Speaker 1: on the night football tilt. He led the Colts to

348
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Speaker 1: an impressive cover. They were a fourteen point dog against Seattle.

349
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Speaker 1: They did not win, but he did his part. You know,

350
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Speaker 1: the stats weren't there, but he's forty four years old.

351
00:17:12,760 --> 00:17:19,359
Speaker 1: Demand's a Grandpa Belle refrigerator. Yes, Philip Rivers did not

352
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Speaker 1: look like he was in game shape, but it's going

353
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Speaker 1: to be my coldest stake of the day. Kendra, are

354
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Speaker 1: we looking the way of Indianapolis.

355
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Speaker 2: I think the same way we kind of looked at

356
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Speaker 2: the Shador thing a couple weeks ago. Obviously they're not

357
00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:41,040
Speaker 2: similar nor comparable situations, but came out first game, everyone.

358
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Speaker 4: Thought that he was going to look like crap.

359
00:17:42,359 --> 00:17:45,119
Speaker 2: Faded the hell out of him, performed to a level

360
00:17:45,160 --> 00:17:49,119
Speaker 2: that was a bit higher than expectation, especially against a

361
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Speaker 2: Seahawks defense.

362
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Speaker 4: I think we fade this shit out of him this week.

363
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Speaker 1: I'm with you. The line has been bet up from

364
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Speaker 1: five and a half to six, so some urgency setting

365
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Speaker 1: in if you want to catch this before that dreaded

366
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Speaker 1: six and a half appears on the San Francisco forty

367
00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:07,520
Speaker 1: nine ers or they would be a phenomenal teaser leg

368
00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:10,760
Speaker 1: at this point as well. The Niners are on the road,

369
00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:14,000
Speaker 1: but San Francisco has been I think criminally underrated for

370
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Speaker 1: the last month of the season. Everybody's talking. Even to

371
00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:19,400
Speaker 1: the conversation that we just had, we did not mention

372
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Speaker 1: San Francisco. If you look at where they line up

373
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Speaker 1: power rating wise, they are among the best teams in

374
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Speaker 1: the NFL.

375
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Speaker 2: Didn't I said that I would take San Francisco over

376
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Speaker 2: the Packers.

377
00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:35,400
Speaker 1: The defense is suspect, but the offense can put up points.

378
00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:39,240
Speaker 1: And now we have some clarity on this whole Mac

379
00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:42,240
Speaker 1: Jones versus Brock party think clearly pretty better for the

380
00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:45,879
Speaker 1: team than your boy Mac Jones. But I'm with you.

381
00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:51,800
Speaker 1: It is time to fade Philip Rivers. You're gonna have

382
00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:54,960
Speaker 1: folks that want to back him. You know you've got

383
00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:57,359
Speaker 1: the home crowd behind him. He covered for a lot

384
00:18:57,440 --> 00:18:59,679
Speaker 1: of folks last week. Or even if you weren't on it,

385
00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:03,200
Speaker 1: you you saw that the Colts had some sense of life.

386
00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:08,320
Speaker 1: The defense played great, but at what point are are we?

387
00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:13,080
Speaker 1: The Colts took one snap under center last week. The

388
00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:16,040
Speaker 1: guy can't move. The easiest bet I've ever cashed in

389
00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:19,760
Speaker 1: my life was on Sunday. It was Philip Rivers under

390
00:19:19,880 --> 00:19:24,639
Speaker 1: half a rushing yard. He was immobile, and.

391
00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:28,280
Speaker 2: I have PTSD from him not throwing a pick six. Okay,

392
00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:31,520
Speaker 2: I thought that I thought that I cooked there, but

393
00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:33,240
Speaker 2: instead I just spoiled chicken and.

394
00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:35,679
Speaker 1: Rice might happen this week. Now that you have a

395
00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:38,560
Speaker 1: defensive coordinator that we respect in Robert Sala, that a

396
00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:41,600
Speaker 1: full week of game film on what has to be

397
00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:45,879
Speaker 1: the most predictable offense in the NFL now this feels

398
00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:47,879
Speaker 1: like it's forty nine ers or pass? Are you with

399
00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:51,600
Speaker 1: us here on the fade rivers bandwagon? Matt?

400
00:19:52,040 --> 00:19:56,199
Speaker 3: I just look look Niners five and a half on

401
00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:59,240
Speaker 3: the road, like five and a half on the road

402
00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:01,560
Speaker 3: versus team that the rest of them. Like, I understand

403
00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:03,480
Speaker 3: how good Daniel Jones was, but this team was his

404
00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:08,560
Speaker 3: top ten DVOA offense. Defense, Like, here's a question the

405
00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:11,760
Speaker 3: Niner you guys know better than I do, are is

406
00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:15,000
Speaker 3: the Niners defense so much healthier and better now as

407
00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:17,480
Speaker 3: to be substantially better than their ratings to where they're

408
00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:20,159
Speaker 3: gonna be able to take advantage of the octogenarian octodad

409
00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:23,119
Speaker 3: because that's something that you can actually like bank on

410
00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:23,880
Speaker 3: them being able.

411
00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:24,439
Speaker 1: I understand.

412
00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:27,040
Speaker 3: It's like the this is the extremely movable object versus

413
00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:31,680
Speaker 3: the completely resistible force, but by the metric. And here's

414
00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:33,520
Speaker 3: the other thing I always get get to with the

415
00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:36,920
Speaker 3: Niners is every time that everyone starts to get excited

416
00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:39,399
Speaker 3: about them is right where they start to smack their

417
00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:41,480
Speaker 3: head into the wall. And so I'm just a little

418
00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:42,960
Speaker 3: bit concerned that this is a little bit of a

419
00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:47,240
Speaker 3: not the best spot to back them as a road favorite.

420
00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:50,600
Speaker 3: I get it. But like, who's gonna want to bet

421
00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:51,600
Speaker 3: the Colts in this spot?

422
00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:56,040
Speaker 1: Well, I'm glad that you ask. Let's see what the

423
00:20:56,080 --> 00:21:00,399
Speaker 1: percentages say over on action, not many people. I actually

424
00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:02,720
Speaker 1: thought it would be more overwhelming. No, the game's on Monday,

425
00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:05,200
Speaker 1: so this could shift by a lot. But forty four

426
00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:07,320
Speaker 1: percent of the bets, only thirty two percent of the

427
00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:09,760
Speaker 1: money is on the Indianapolis Cult.

428
00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:17,600
Speaker 3: Like since week ten, Niners are still eighteenth in dropback EPA. Defensively,

429
00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:21,320
Speaker 3: I don't I just don't know that we have a

430
00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:23,800
Speaker 3: lot of Again, it's like, yeah, but it's Philip Rivers,

431
00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:26,040
Speaker 3: I hear you. I'm not saying that the Cults are

432
00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:28,240
Speaker 3: going to win this game, but five and a half

433
00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:32,119
Speaker 3: on the road, especially if this gets the what's the

434
00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:34,040
Speaker 3: number at which you want to get the cults? Kendra Like,

435
00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:35,199
Speaker 3: at what number? Are you?

436
00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:35,399
Speaker 6: Like?

437
00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:39,359
Speaker 3: Oh, that's a lot. Philip Rivers is alive.

438
00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:42,640
Speaker 2: I don't know, because we went through this exercise last

439
00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:44,840
Speaker 2: week and we were sitting here and we were like,

440
00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:48,360
Speaker 2: at what number do we think is worth it?

441
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:51,040
Speaker 4: And we all kind of agreed maybe two touchdowns? And

442
00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:51,600
Speaker 4: look at us.

443
00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:56,119
Speaker 2: Now, that's that's kind of where I'm at, and I

444
00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:58,040
Speaker 2: pulled up the injury reports for both teams.

445
00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:01,600
Speaker 4: This is yucky, this is not this is not fun.

446
00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:04,359
Speaker 4: I don't like this. I'm I don't like this experiment.

447
00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:10,760
Speaker 1: Tell you, well, who's looking worse right now? Yah, gotta

448
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:13,320
Speaker 1: be San has been battered all season.

449
00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:15,960
Speaker 4: Take the injuries out of it.

450
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:19,280
Speaker 2: If you are on a fifth string quarterback, I would

451
00:22:19,280 --> 00:22:21,920
Speaker 2: say you a forty four year old grandpa, fifth string

452
00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:24,680
Speaker 2: quarterback that you signed off of the couch last week,

453
00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:25,720
Speaker 2: you're in a worse spot.

454
00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 4: I'm sorry.

455
00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:30,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, your your third or fourth string guy broke his

456
00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:32,480
Speaker 2: orbitable orbital bone.

457
00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:35,879
Speaker 4: With a like No, it's the cults. It's not even close.

458
00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:39,160
Speaker 2: I'm I'm done having sympathy for the forty nine ers.

459
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:41,560
Speaker 2: It's the same song and dance year in and year out.

460
00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:44,400
Speaker 2: I can't keep having sympathy for you guys. I get

461
00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:47,760
Speaker 2: the injuries happen, I get that they're never intentional whatever,

462
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:49,640
Speaker 2: but I can't no sympathy.

463
00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:57,040
Speaker 3: Last five weeks, the Niners are twenty fifth in rush

464
00:22:57,320 --> 00:23:01,359
Speaker 3: defensive EPA. Last five weeks when they're supposed to like

465
00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:02,320
Speaker 3: have turned around.

466
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:05,679
Speaker 1: No, their defense is not the defense is the defense

467
00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:06,160
Speaker 1: isn't good?

468
00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:09,760
Speaker 2: This is red warners on IR, mikel Williams on IR,

469
00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:14,680
Speaker 2: Nick Mosa on IR. Jacob Robinson, like everybody on their

470
00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:16,000
Speaker 2: defense is reasible.

471
00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:20,280
Speaker 1: My point about the defense, though, is that it will

472
00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:23,680
Speaker 1: make a bad defense look good going up against a

473
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:29,200
Speaker 1: quarterback that is a sitting duck in the pocket if

474
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:34,080
Speaker 1: they can figure out the most obvious run game situations

475
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:38,159
Speaker 1: and just load up the box stop Jonathan Taylor. Philip

476
00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:41,040
Speaker 1: Rivers is not going to beat this team. Also, you

477
00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 1: mentioned are we trusting the road favorites? I know you

478
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:47,120
Speaker 1: love these trends, Matt. How about the forty nine ers

479
00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:50,280
Speaker 1: a clean five and oh this season as in a

480
00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:54,639
Speaker 1: way favorite best record in the NFL against the spread when.

481
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:57,439
Speaker 3: They are what's what's his record against quarterbacks that were

482
00:23:57,440 --> 00:23:58,760
Speaker 3: born in the seventeen hundreds.

483
00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:01,360
Speaker 1: That's right, I don't, I can't. I'm going to need

484
00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:02,280
Speaker 1: more time on that.

485
00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:04,919
Speaker 3: Evan, Get on it, Get on it, Evan. So like

486
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:06,480
Speaker 3: look theaically put.

487
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:08,000
Speaker 1: That in the middle of the blurb, though not at

488
00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 1: the top where you know where everyone's gonna think to look.

489
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 3: But right now, you know, Seahawks they lose, but like

490
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:18,119
Speaker 3: they were in that game the whole way. Okay, on

491
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:22,639
Speaker 3: the road and then I guess my look would be

492
00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:26,760
Speaker 3: the total here, right, because with what you're saying is

493
00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:31,120
Speaker 3: if if the Niners defense we know is banged up

494
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:35,840
Speaker 3: and isn't good enough, and we know that the strength

495
00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:38,159
Speaker 3: of the Niners is the offense, even as good as

496
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:40,160
Speaker 3: the Colts have been, if the Colts defense is exhausted

497
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:42,719
Speaker 3: because their offense can't get off the field and Cravis,

498
00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 3: you kind of want to like fade them to the

499
00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:47,080
Speaker 3: point of like they're gonna kill him, They're gonna kill

500
00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 3: this team. Isn't it possible that this is like thirty

501
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:52,320
Speaker 3: five thirteen and you're able to get over on the over,

502
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:54,000
Speaker 3: which is only forty six and a half right now?

503
00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:57,120
Speaker 1: Very much so, I think the over is very much

504
00:24:57,160 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 1: in play. The only issue is is that if you

505
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:03,720
Speaker 1: a layering in any confidence for Indianapolis, their defense looked

506
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:07,600
Speaker 1: damn good last week. Yeah, against a Seattle team that

507
00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:11,560
Speaker 1: can move the ball, so that is that's concerning, But

508
00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:14,120
Speaker 1: they tend to run better at home, and the San

509
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:17,800
Speaker 1: Francisco run defense isn't good. I just think when you,

510
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:19,960
Speaker 1: no matter how bad you are in terms of these

511
00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:22,720
Speaker 1: advanced stats that we look at every week, when your

512
00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:29,600
Speaker 1: offense lacks the availability of any creative layer. It makes

513
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:32,439
Speaker 1: life so much easier, even defenses.

514
00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:35,080
Speaker 3: That's I think that's the decision tree, right is if

515
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:36,439
Speaker 3: you think the Niners are going to score on them,

516
00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:37,880
Speaker 3: If you're like, no, they're gonna be exhausted, the Niners

517
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:39,120
Speaker 3: are gonna be I have too many weapons and they're

518
00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:42,160
Speaker 3: gonna score, Okay, then you want the over. And if

519
00:25:42,160 --> 00:25:45,120
Speaker 3: you're like, I don't know that Colts defense is really good, Okay,

520
00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 3: then it's a tight game again, and Colts are going

521
00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:49,239
Speaker 3: to cover this because they're at home. Is a five

522
00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:51,879
Speaker 3: and a half point dog Like wait for the six,

523
00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:54,080
Speaker 3: Like I'm not saying about the five and a half

524
00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:56,399
Speaker 3: because like, wait for the six, because again I just

525
00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:59,399
Speaker 3: ask like, how did you know? It'd be really interesting

526
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:01,640
Speaker 3: to see what the the groups do with this this week, right,

527
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:03,080
Speaker 3: Like are the groups going to come in and be

528
00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:05,399
Speaker 3: like and look at this and go, no, I'm fading

529
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:08,840
Speaker 3: Philip Rivers again. And because with where this number has

530
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:11,359
Speaker 3: settled at at five and a half, it's in an

531
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:13,399
Speaker 3: unbettable zone and I'm just gonna curious to see if

532
00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:15,280
Speaker 3: this hangs here or if it goes the other way.

533
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:18,359
Speaker 3: But like I would say, I like Colts, I like

534
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 3: the over.

535
00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:21,359
Speaker 1: I think right now the best thing to do with

536
00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:23,400
Speaker 1: it is to tease the forty nine ers down, because

537
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:25,760
Speaker 1: I do not think Philip Rivers is beating this team.

538
00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:28,320
Speaker 1: We're about to talk Thursday Night Football, but first a

539
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:30,800
Speaker 1: word from our very own Kendra Middleton.

540
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:34,080
Speaker 2: The Favorites podcast has teamed up with Draft Kings sportsbook,

541
00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:37,000
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542
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543
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544
00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:46,719
Speaker 2: Bet live on star player props and in progress games

545
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546
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547
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548
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549
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Speaker 4: If your bet wins, the crown is yours.

550
00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:02,800
Speaker 1: All right, Kendrick, We'll get back to it in a moment.

551
00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:05,960
Speaker 1: We've got Thursday Night Football a preview. Ram Seahawks still

552
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:08,240
Speaker 1: plant the Flag game to get to as well. But

553
00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:09,920
Speaker 1: what's on your mind today?

554
00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:10,560
Speaker 3: What sell?

555
00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:15,440
Speaker 1: But you've been at.

556
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 2: I had so many directions I could go, but since

557
00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:26,240
Speaker 2: I didn't do sports last week and we talked about

558
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:30,199
Speaker 2: your loved ones eating your dead body, I decided to

559
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 2: keep it.

560
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:32,960
Speaker 4: Probably you know PG this week.

561
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:37,359
Speaker 2: So would you rather play four NFL games at forty

562
00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:40,800
Speaker 2: four against top ten defenses or have to go the

563
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:43,600
Speaker 2: distance or until you're knocked out in a boxing match

564
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:44,720
Speaker 2: with a featherweight champion?

565
00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 1: Oh my god, No, definitely rather play the football game

566
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:52,200
Speaker 1: at forty four. At least I have offensive linemen that

567
00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:56,520
Speaker 1: are protecting me in these scenarios. If you're in the

568
00:27:56,600 --> 00:28:01,240
Speaker 1: boxing ring, it's you and the other dude, and maybe

569
00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 1: you get a nice official but no.

570
00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:04,919
Speaker 4: But then it's over, Like you only have to do

571
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:05,800
Speaker 4: it one time.

572
00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:07,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm taking the boxing match. You have to keep

573
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:11,400
Speaker 3: going back out there. You have to keep Gorand at

574
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:15,040
Speaker 3: forty four, I will tell you it gets harder to

575
00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 3: get up every single time, every single time you get

576
00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:20,520
Speaker 3: knocked down. Once you can at least crawl your way

577
00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:22,040
Speaker 3: out of the ring. It's definitely the featherway.

578
00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:24,520
Speaker 1: I was saying the other day, like my knee hurt,

579
00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:28,600
Speaker 1: my left knee hurts, and I have no idea what

580
00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:31,679
Speaker 1: I feel like. I have a torn acl and I

581
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:34,240
Speaker 1: don't even know what happened, well even do anything?

582
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:36,040
Speaker 3: Welcome this is the rest of your life.

583
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:38,560
Speaker 1: And I turned forty in August, so I assume that

584
00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 1: the two are correlated.

585
00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:43,040
Speaker 3: Just like wake up. The best thing about being about

586
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 3: being old is that you you suffer injuries like you

587
00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:51,000
Speaker 3: talk about like getting hit by an NFL pass rusher

588
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:54,800
Speaker 3: at like I have no idea how Philip Rivers is

589
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:56,479
Speaker 3: doing this. I have no idea how Lebron's doing this,

590
00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 3: because after forty you start having to be like, I

591
00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 3: have an injury. What happened? I slept, That's it.

592
00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:06,760
Speaker 1: I slept, and now body parts hurt and no idea.

593
00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:09,160
Speaker 4: I'm in my twenties and I feel like I'm in pain.

594
00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:13,040
Speaker 1: Was there a right answer to this in your opinion, Kendra,

595
00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 1: I don't think.

596
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:16,600
Speaker 2: That there's a right answer, but I do lean the

597
00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:19,720
Speaker 2: boxing just because it's like one and done, it's over.

598
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:21,560
Speaker 4: I don't have to do all this prep work. Just

599
00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 4: take me out.

600
00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:25,800
Speaker 1: I don't really want to be taken out, but I guess,

601
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:27,800
Speaker 1: see Chiseoe, although, oh.

602
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:31,720
Speaker 2: I guess if you're Philip Rivers, your insurance clock resets

603
00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:32,720
Speaker 2: taking a snap.

604
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:33,960
Speaker 4: So did you guys hear about this.

605
00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:37,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, now he gets insurance for all Yeah.

606
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:41,760
Speaker 2: So the reason he was open to coming back was

607
00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:45,480
Speaker 2: because after five years, your health insurance with the NFL

608
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:47,120
Speaker 2: runs out, and when you have ten kids, you need

609
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:48,959
Speaker 2: your health insurance. So he was willing to do it

610
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 2: to have the clock reset on his health insurance.

611
00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:53,200
Speaker 5: Sport.

612
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:57,680
Speaker 3: I still I can't believe they overvide. Hey, we're gonna

613
00:29:57,680 --> 00:29:59,400
Speaker 3: put you through this. You're gonna be a car wreck

614
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:05,959
Speaker 3: seventeen times a year for ten years, but after five years,

615
00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:07,640
Speaker 3: you better figure out your own way to be able

616
00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:10,480
Speaker 3: to pay for your INSURAN. That's crazy, that is crazy talk,

617
00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:11,240
Speaker 3: but good for him.

618
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:15,160
Speaker 1: Thursday Night Football Rams at Seahawks Seattle minus one and

619
00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 1: a half, the totals sitting at forty four and a

620
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:20,720
Speaker 1: half Thursday Nights Football, the Seahawks have flipped the favorites

621
00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:23,640
Speaker 1: after being one point dogs at the open. The winner

622
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:28,800
Speaker 1: takes control of the NFC West. Seahawks probably would have

623
00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:31,200
Speaker 1: won the last game that these two teams met if

624
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:33,800
Speaker 1: Sam Darnold didn't have a complete and utter meltdown. He

625
00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:36,920
Speaker 1: was seeing ghosts again. And while they are coming off

626
00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:41,160
Speaker 1: that win against Indianapolis, as we mentioned, not all that impressive.

627
00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:43,280
Speaker 1: They failed to get to the end zone and barely

628
00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:47,480
Speaker 1: escaped the old Man's strength of Philip Rivers. Seattle kicked

629
00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:51,960
Speaker 1: six field goals to barely beat the Colts. I find

630
00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:57,080
Speaker 1: myself leaning Seattle, though talk by low, even though they

631
00:30:57,120 --> 00:31:00,600
Speaker 1: won the game. How does anybody have confidence in the

632
00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 1: Seattle Seahawks yet, I still look at my janky power

633
00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:06,920
Speaker 1: ratings and I've got these two teams side by side.

634
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:09,800
Speaker 1: I think the home team that already lost in the

635
00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:15,040
Speaker 1: divisional matchup prior that actually outplayed the Rams. I think

636
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:17,680
Speaker 1: Seattle is the right side here, Hendra.

637
00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 2: Actually, I think that you have just sold me. I

638
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 2: was leaning Seattle as well, but I'm going to go

639
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:27,320
Speaker 2: ahead and get in on Seattle right now before the

640
00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:32,600
Speaker 2: inevitable happens. That being that DeVante Adams is ruled out.

641
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:35,800
Speaker 2: We know, I know that they said that Pokinakua had cramps.

642
00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:37,520
Speaker 2: I don't know if I believe that he did not

643
00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:39,600
Speaker 2: look good standing up there. It looked like a back

644
00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:43,600
Speaker 2: something unless he was having like backspasms. So I think

645
00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:46,360
Speaker 2: that DeVante Adams probably going to be ruled out. Do

646
00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:48,120
Speaker 2: I think that this number is going to change a ton?

647
00:31:48,280 --> 00:31:51,480
Speaker 2: If that's the case, no, maybe a point something like that.

648
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:54,560
Speaker 2: But when you don't, when pukin Akua clearly not one

649
00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 2: hundred percent, Davante Adams clearly not one hundred percent, Jordan

650
00:31:57,200 --> 00:32:00,360
Speaker 2: Winnington questionable as well, that leaves you with an healthy

651
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:04,960
Speaker 2: Pukunukua and tutuat well, and then nobody's so. I get

652
00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:09,040
Speaker 2: that Matthew Stafford is having an MVP season elite playing

653
00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:12,040
Speaker 2: out of his mind old man style. However, I don't

654
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:15,320
Speaker 2: know if you can elevate your receivers that much to

655
00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 2: be able to beat the Seattle defense right now. And

656
00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:19,320
Speaker 2: I think Seattle's probably going to be on a tear.

657
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:21,080
Speaker 2: Like did they win the game against the Colts?

658
00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:21,400
Speaker 4: Yes?

659
00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:24,040
Speaker 2: Was it absolutely beyond embarrassing that it took what it

660
00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:26,440
Speaker 2: did from them to be able to win that game. Yeah,

661
00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:27,720
Speaker 2: So I think that they're probably going to be on

662
00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:29,200
Speaker 2: a little bit of a tear. Still think that the

663
00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:31,520
Speaker 2: Rams are the better team, just not as healthy right.

664
00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:36,120
Speaker 1: Now, matt are you with us on this Seattle train?

665
00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:39,920
Speaker 3: McVeigh has been really good on short rest. Is kind

666
00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:45,560
Speaker 3: of problem here is McVeigh. Here's funny is it completely

667
00:32:45,600 --> 00:32:47,880
Speaker 3: changes whether he's a favorite or a dog here and

668
00:32:47,960 --> 00:32:51,120
Speaker 3: the number predictably when it's like less than less than

669
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:53,960
Speaker 3: a field or a field goal or less is pretty marginal.

670
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:59,160
Speaker 3: But McVeigh when he's on short rest has done pretty

671
00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 3: freaking well in these kind of spots about being able

672
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:05,480
Speaker 3: to win and cover thirty one twenty five straight up

673
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:10,920
Speaker 3: thirty and twenty five and one ats as a road

674
00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:13,040
Speaker 3: team on short rest, he's good in these kind of

675
00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:17,000
Speaker 3: spots on the road. I do kind of think this

676
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:19,600
Speaker 3: is the spot where the Rams win, and then in

677
00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:21,720
Speaker 3: the playoffs, I would not be surprised if this comes

678
00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 3: back the other way. I do think also, like you get,

679
00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:28,480
Speaker 3: you put, Darnold is the kind of quarterback that I

680
00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:31,400
Speaker 3: think good coaches are able to take advantage of that.

681
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:33,760
Speaker 3: They're able to kind of limit what he's capable of doing,

682
00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:38,120
Speaker 3: and that causes a lot of problems here. After week ten,

683
00:33:39,080 --> 00:33:41,360
Speaker 3: this is the counter of it. After week ten, home

684
00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 3: teams on short rest versus an opponent on short rest

685
00:33:44,800 --> 00:33:49,840
Speaker 3: on Thursday Night football have been fifty six percent straight up,

686
00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:52,120
Speaker 3: but that's actually not that great for being at home,

687
00:33:52,600 --> 00:33:54,560
Speaker 3: and then their road team is actually fifty two percent

688
00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:58,280
Speaker 3: in those spots. So this is like road team division

689
00:33:58,440 --> 00:34:01,960
Speaker 3: late division matchup on Thursday. Football has been not terrible

690
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:05,360
Speaker 3: for teams in the Rams spot. I kind of wonder

691
00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 3: if this is a good opportunity to get ill in

692
00:34:07,400 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 3: the Rams.

693
00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:10,279
Speaker 1: I do think the Rams are the better team, and

694
00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:11,800
Speaker 1: I kind of look at this the other way. I

695
00:34:11,840 --> 00:34:14,880
Speaker 1: think Seattle is the spot here. If these two teams

696
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:16,839
Speaker 1: were to meet in the playoffs, I'd be right back

697
00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:19,680
Speaker 1: on the Rams and I'd throw some numbers out the window.

698
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:24,360
Speaker 1: I do have the Rams as just under a point

699
00:34:24,400 --> 00:34:27,600
Speaker 1: better than Seattle, but later in the home field advantage

700
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:29,640
Speaker 1: and the fact that this is a weather game too.

701
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:32,239
Speaker 1: The temperature at forty eight, which is an unbearable but

702
00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:36,000
Speaker 1: wins up to eleven miles per hour, eighty six percent

703
00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:39,440
Speaker 1: chance of rain at kickoff, and you would think that

704
00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:42,680
Speaker 1: the team that is used to playing outdoors would be

705
00:34:42,760 --> 00:34:47,439
Speaker 1: slightly more be slightly more advantageous to them. I don't

706
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:49,719
Speaker 1: know if I trust Sam Darnold with a wet football.

707
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:55,280
Speaker 1: That would be my one issue, but it should be Seattle.

708
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:57,680
Speaker 3: I'll line know from Evan not only what the record

709
00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 3: is this season and last five years on when that

710
00:35:01,239 --> 00:35:04,080
Speaker 3: because like there has been that trend of when it

711
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:07,600
Speaker 3: flips from favorite from dog to favorite. The favorite's been

712
00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:10,719
Speaker 3: terrible in those numbers over the last like five seasons,

713
00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:13,399
Speaker 3: but that may have reversed itself this season, and I'd

714
00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:14,960
Speaker 3: love to know what that happens when that's a division

715
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:17,560
Speaker 3: game and when you have those kind of dynamics in play.

716
00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:21,040
Speaker 3: I'm not surprised that Seattle took money right like Seattle's been,

717
00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:22,839
Speaker 3: I think a little bit underrated and the Rams are.

718
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:27,160
Speaker 3: This is answering question of like our Rams at peak value?

719
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:29,080
Speaker 3: I don't know that's if that's true or not.

720
00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:32,000
Speaker 1: And I think we've seen so. Evan will bring you

721
00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:34,600
Speaker 1: on at the end for the for the primer segment.

722
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 1: Definitely have that one in your back pocket. The we've

723
00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:40,719
Speaker 1: seen some reverse line movement in that regard, which I

724
00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:44,880
Speaker 1: know sports betters out there absolutely eat up the bets

725
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:47,280
Speaker 1: and money coming in on the Rams sixty one percent

726
00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:49,960
Speaker 1: of the tickets on the Rams sixty three percent of

727
00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:52,200
Speaker 1: the money. Yet the line is moving in the other direction.

728
00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:56,760
Speaker 1: So keep that in mind before we plant our flags.

729
00:35:56,800 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 1: We're going to turn our attention to the College Football Playoff,

730
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:03,279
Speaker 1: which starts on Friday between number nine Alabama and number

731
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:06,520
Speaker 1: eight Oklahoma. This game at eight pm Eastern on ABC

732
00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:10,360
Speaker 1: and ESPN. We've got Mike Calabrese. We're bringing in the

733
00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:12,680
Speaker 1: big guns joining us to talk about this game. But

734
00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:15,160
Speaker 1: first we want to let our listeners know what we

735
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:18,279
Speaker 1: think is an awesome offer from Sling TV. Do you

736
00:36:18,360 --> 00:36:21,960
Speaker 1: need instant access to live TV because your squad is

737
00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:25,200
Speaker 1: in the College Football Playoff? That's not Kendra, that's not me,

738
00:36:25,440 --> 00:36:28,359
Speaker 1: but it might apply to you. With Sling TV, you

739
00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:32,160
Speaker 1: can take control with flexible package options of a one

740
00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:35,640
Speaker 1: to three and seven day passes for access to thirty

741
00:36:35,680 --> 00:36:40,520
Speaker 1: plus live channels, which includes ESPN and TNC, so that

742
00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:45,200
Speaker 1: covers you for all eleven Epic College Football Playoff games.

743
00:36:45,600 --> 00:36:48,400
Speaker 1: Public service announcement for those out there, Kendrick used to

744
00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:51,279
Speaker 1: be an Auburn Tiger, war Damn Eagle and all of that.

745
00:36:51,400 --> 00:36:54,080
Speaker 1: Jazz not sure if she's gonna be able to stay

746
00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:57,680
Speaker 1: objective here, but we can certainly try. Mike, give us

747
00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:00,760
Speaker 1: one thing that people need to know about each team

748
00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:02,680
Speaker 1: that will be a key for this game.

749
00:37:03,400 --> 00:37:06,120
Speaker 7: All right, Let's start with Jim Miller and his availability,

750
00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:08,520
Speaker 7: because this Alabama offense, I'm not breaking any news here,

751
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:11,200
Speaker 7: it's pretty much broken without him because he's someone who

752
00:37:11,239 --> 00:37:13,560
Speaker 7: can pop it in the run game. He's always a

753
00:37:13,600 --> 00:37:16,920
Speaker 7: threat on swing passes. He can stretch the defense across

754
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:20,279
Speaker 7: the field, and when the defense has to focus in

755
00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:23,239
Speaker 7: on him, it allows Grub and de Boor to really

756
00:37:23,239 --> 00:37:25,120
Speaker 7: get deeper in their bag in terms of their play

757
00:37:25,120 --> 00:37:28,360
Speaker 7: calling and their creativity. On the Oklahoma side of things,

758
00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:31,120
Speaker 7: Matier has just not been good since his hand injury.

759
00:37:31,200 --> 00:37:33,160
Speaker 5: I know that the kid's gutty. He goes through surgery,

760
00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 5: he comes back.

761
00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:36,160
Speaker 7: They win a lot of games, but it's because of

762
00:37:36,200 --> 00:37:38,399
Speaker 7: their defense, it is not because of him. And when

763
00:37:38,400 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 7: you look at him passing the ball down the field,

764
00:37:40,239 --> 00:37:42,319
Speaker 7: if they're in a game script and game flow where

765
00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:44,160
Speaker 7: they need to come back and they need to score

766
00:37:44,200 --> 00:37:46,239
Speaker 7: points to an erase a deficit, he's going to have

767
00:37:46,280 --> 00:37:48,360
Speaker 7: to push the ball downfield, and he struggled when he

768
00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:50,880
Speaker 7: throws in that intermediate range. He's hit in about fifty

769
00:37:50,880 --> 00:37:54,240
Speaker 7: percent completions since the injury. But when he goes beyond

770
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:57,600
Speaker 7: twenty yards, three big time throws, which is great, thirteen

771
00:37:57,719 --> 00:38:00,120
Speaker 7: turnover worthy plays, when he puts the ball in the

772
00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:02,000
Speaker 7: air more than twenty yards soundfield. Those are the two

773
00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:03,759
Speaker 7: things you need to know about the Sooners in the

774
00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:04,560
Speaker 7: Crimson side.

775
00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:09,239
Speaker 1: Kendrew, what's your least favorite thing about the University of Alabama?

776
00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:12,879
Speaker 2: Probably that most of their fans didn't actually go there.

777
00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:17,480
Speaker 2: I'm gonna that's my answer. They're probably just Patriots, Yankees,

778
00:38:17,600 --> 00:38:20,560
Speaker 2: Lakers fans that needed a college football team to support.

779
00:38:20,640 --> 00:38:22,120
Speaker 4: They didn't actually go to the school.

780
00:38:22,560 --> 00:38:24,960
Speaker 2: Every time I'm in Auburn gear and someone's like, oh,

781
00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:26,799
Speaker 2: roll Tide, I'm like, did you go out there?

782
00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 4: And they're like, well no.

783
00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:30,319
Speaker 2: But my second cousin twice removed it, and I just

784
00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:31,840
Speaker 2: like that they have a good football team.

785
00:38:32,000 --> 00:38:32,800
Speaker 4: That's my answer.

786
00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:35,040
Speaker 1: No. I you know, I think a lot of people

787
00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:38,360
Speaker 1: probably struggle with perhaps getting in and that maybe that

788
00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:42,520
Speaker 1: is an issue. I don't know what the iso.

789
00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:45,200
Speaker 4: No, no, yes, no.

790
00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:48,000
Speaker 2: The requirements to Alabama are are you an out of

791
00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:50,560
Speaker 2: state student that has a ton of money to offer us?

792
00:38:50,600 --> 00:38:52,440
Speaker 4: And can you read? That's about it.

793
00:38:53,080 --> 00:38:55,319
Speaker 7: This is some big talk from someone who attended the

794
00:38:55,360 --> 00:38:56,640
Speaker 7: cow College in Alabama.

795
00:38:56,680 --> 00:38:58,760
Speaker 5: But you know what, listen, this is this is your fire.

796
00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:01,080
Speaker 7: You know you're coming at it with a lot of

797
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:04,880
Speaker 7: enthusiasm and you want to talk some trash to Toabama grads.

798
00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:07,120
Speaker 7: I get it, but let's not get on our high

799
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:10,279
Speaker 7: horse here. In terms of higher education in the Yellowhammer State.

800
00:39:10,520 --> 00:39:13,520
Speaker 2: Hey, I didn't graduate from Auburn, so I graduated from

801
00:39:13,520 --> 00:39:14,239
Speaker 2: a New England school.

802
00:39:14,280 --> 00:39:15,520
Speaker 4: I got the better education of.

803
00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:18,680
Speaker 2: The two, and I will col College on because cows

804
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:21,840
Speaker 2: and alligators are my favorite animals, So cal College forever.

805
00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 1: Who is the better nightlife Alabama or Auburn.

806
00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:27,239
Speaker 4: Probably Alabama.

807
00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:29,520
Speaker 2: I would say I only went out there one time

808
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:32,160
Speaker 2: because when my neighbor growing up, she actually went to

809
00:39:32,200 --> 00:39:34,040
Speaker 2: Alabama and I went to Auburn, so we did like

810
00:39:34,080 --> 00:39:36,399
Speaker 2: the crisscross thing of when we would go see each other.

811
00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:39,399
Speaker 2: The nightlife there is a little bit better, just because

812
00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:42,800
Speaker 2: the downtown is bigger, But Auburn does have bigger bars,

813
00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:45,480
Speaker 2: so I would like size wise, you can fit more

814
00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:48,440
Speaker 2: people and there's more opportunity for different vibes in the bars.

815
00:39:48,600 --> 00:39:51,200
Speaker 2: But Alabama nightlife is fun because most people that go

816
00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:53,000
Speaker 2: there from Jersey and New York and they know how

817
00:39:53,000 --> 00:39:53,440
Speaker 2: to party.

818
00:39:54,680 --> 00:39:57,640
Speaker 1: Let's each make a pick so that we can sit back,

819
00:39:57,840 --> 00:40:01,000
Speaker 1: watch Sling TV and enjoy this the way that it

820
00:40:01,080 --> 00:40:05,239
Speaker 1: is meant to be enjoyed. Mike get Us started, who

821
00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:06,440
Speaker 1: do you like? What do you like?

822
00:40:07,400 --> 00:40:09,560
Speaker 7: This number is yo yod a little bit at settling

823
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:11,120
Speaker 7: in at Bama lay in a point and a half

824
00:40:11,160 --> 00:40:12,040
Speaker 7: at about even money.

825
00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:13,080
Speaker 5: I'm comfortable with that.

826
00:40:13,160 --> 00:40:16,239
Speaker 7: They're going to close as the first road favorite in

827
00:40:16,280 --> 00:40:19,359
Speaker 7: the twelve team college Fotball Playoff era, and for good reason.

828
00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:21,719
Speaker 7: If you look at their first game against Oklahoma, they

829
00:40:21,719 --> 00:40:22,839
Speaker 7: nearly doubled.

830
00:40:22,560 --> 00:40:23,400
Speaker 5: Up their yardage.

831
00:40:23,440 --> 00:40:25,560
Speaker 7: They only lost because they were negative three in the

832
00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:28,160
Speaker 7: turnover margin, and that's still a concern in terms of

833
00:40:28,160 --> 00:40:30,600
Speaker 7: protecting football and certainly on special teams. You saw a

834
00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:32,839
Speaker 7: punk get blocked against Georgia. They got to button that up.

835
00:40:32,960 --> 00:40:34,879
Speaker 7: But if they don't give the game away and give

836
00:40:35,040 --> 00:40:38,160
Speaker 7: free yardage and great field position to this Oklahoma offense,

837
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:39,600
Speaker 7: I think they're going to be able to pull it

838
00:40:39,640 --> 00:40:43,160
Speaker 7: out in this spot. If you'll get Parker Fleming stats

839
00:40:43,160 --> 00:40:45,680
Speaker 7: of war over on Twitter, he puts together the graphic

840
00:40:45,800 --> 00:40:48,799
Speaker 7: every Sunday morning. Did my team really get beat that bad?

841
00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:51,520
Speaker 7: In terms of power for teams, Alabama was one of

842
00:40:51,520 --> 00:40:54,200
Speaker 7: the most egregious losses of the entire season, losing to Oklahoma.

843
00:40:54,360 --> 00:40:55,439
Speaker 5: I think they get it right here.

844
00:40:55,480 --> 00:40:58,040
Speaker 7: I think the addition to jam Miller opens up this offense.

845
00:40:58,200 --> 00:41:00,399
Speaker 7: If they can get to twenty four points. I think

846
00:41:00,440 --> 00:41:03,239
Speaker 7: Oklahoma is going to struggle to stay with them. They're

847
00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:05,279
Speaker 7: going to win this by let's call it five to

848
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:07,200
Speaker 7: seven points. It's going to be a bit of a

849
00:41:07,239 --> 00:41:09,840
Speaker 7: rock fight. It's not going to be necessarily that beautiful

850
00:41:09,840 --> 00:41:12,400
Speaker 7: brand of offensive football that bring in the casuals.

851
00:41:12,560 --> 00:41:14,040
Speaker 5: But I think Alabama gets it done.

852
00:41:14,120 --> 00:41:15,799
Speaker 7: I have a lot of faith and grub and to Boor,

853
00:41:15,920 --> 00:41:17,560
Speaker 7: it's a reason why he got brought from the Pacific

854
00:41:17,640 --> 00:41:19,440
Speaker 7: Northwest down to the Deep South.

855
00:41:19,719 --> 00:41:21,919
Speaker 5: He's a great offensive mind. He'll fix things.

856
00:41:21,960 --> 00:41:24,560
Speaker 7: Don't get tied into that recency bias of how poor

857
00:41:24,640 --> 00:41:27,040
Speaker 7: they played against Georgia. This is a team that can

858
00:41:27,080 --> 00:41:28,640
Speaker 7: bounce back. They have the weapons to do it.

859
00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:30,440
Speaker 1: And I was going to get caught up in that,

860
00:41:30,520 --> 00:41:33,080
Speaker 1: and I was ready to mash the button on Oklahoma.

861
00:41:33,160 --> 00:41:34,799
Speaker 1: You may have talked me off of that. But one

862
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:36,760
Speaker 1: thing I do like, and this will be my play,

863
00:41:37,239 --> 00:41:40,000
Speaker 1: is a John Matteer. Anytime touchdown at plus one point

864
00:41:39,960 --> 00:41:43,759
Speaker 1: fifteen seven rushing touchdowns on the season, their offense goes

865
00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:46,120
Speaker 1: as he's as he goes. To remember, this was a

866
00:41:46,160 --> 00:41:49,359
Speaker 1: Heisman favorite before that hand injury. He can still get

867
00:41:49,400 --> 00:41:51,480
Speaker 1: it done with his legs. I like him to rush

868
00:41:51,640 --> 00:41:54,520
Speaker 1: into the end zone. Kendra, wrap us up.

869
00:41:55,239 --> 00:41:57,960
Speaker 4: Talk about being objective, but I'm all over the tide here.

870
00:41:58,320 --> 00:42:01,520
Speaker 2: I've watched so much Alabama football over the years, whether

871
00:42:01,680 --> 00:42:04,719
Speaker 2: it was by choice or not. They've kicked ass for

872
00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:06,800
Speaker 2: over ten years now. I'm not gonna fade them in

873
00:42:06,840 --> 00:42:09,200
Speaker 2: the postseason. They feel like the better side here. If

874
00:42:09,200 --> 00:42:11,440
Speaker 2: you watched a lot of SEC football like myself, this year,

875
00:42:11,480 --> 00:42:14,880
Speaker 2: Oklahoma got really lucky at times, super lucky at times,

876
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:16,839
Speaker 2: and in positions I did not think that they would

877
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:19,040
Speaker 2: find themselves in as well. So I'm gonna go with

878
00:42:19,120 --> 00:42:21,440
Speaker 2: Materia for an interception, just because they do think when

879
00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:23,360
Speaker 2: he gets frustrated, he can get a little lazy with

880
00:42:23,400 --> 00:42:23,880
Speaker 2: the football.

881
00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:26,040
Speaker 4: That hand injury did not help him out whatsoever.

882
00:42:26,520 --> 00:42:28,560
Speaker 2: With the price, it's a little steep, but if you're

883
00:42:28,560 --> 00:42:30,279
Speaker 2: gonna parlay it, I think it adds to some action

884
00:42:30,400 --> 00:42:33,520
Speaker 2: and it's probably something I could see myself putting some

885
00:42:34,000 --> 00:42:35,440
Speaker 2: pretty decent money behind.

886
00:42:36,560 --> 00:42:39,400
Speaker 1: Holiday season is coming up, and if you find yourself

887
00:42:39,440 --> 00:42:42,120
Speaker 1: at a let's gather around the table and play a

888
00:42:42,120 --> 00:42:44,080
Speaker 1: board game while the game is on. Kind of how

889
00:42:44,200 --> 00:42:48,719
Speaker 1: sling TV is your solution to instant access for live

890
00:42:48,880 --> 00:42:52,319
Speaker 1: TV starting as low as four ninety nine, and this

891
00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:54,960
Speaker 1: works for more than just the college football playoff. This

892
00:42:55,080 --> 00:42:58,680
Speaker 1: also covers our world with the NFL for Monday night

893
00:42:58,680 --> 00:43:02,080
Speaker 1: football and remember we have Saturday NFL games as well

894
00:43:02,120 --> 00:43:05,919
Speaker 1: on ESPN and playoff games. There isn't a better time

895
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:09,000
Speaker 1: to acquaint yourself with the one, three, and seven day

896
00:43:09,080 --> 00:43:13,399
Speaker 1: passes from Sling TV. Offer applies to Orange. One day

897
00:43:13,440 --> 00:43:17,640
Speaker 1: pass restrictions apply. Mike, Thank you so much. Crush it

898
00:43:17,760 --> 00:43:21,760
Speaker 1: for BBOC and we'll see you back between sometime between

899
00:43:22,239 --> 00:43:24,359
Speaker 1: very soon and perhaps Stucky's next kid.

900
00:43:25,000 --> 00:43:27,400
Speaker 5: Appreciate it. Thanks for having me time.

901
00:43:27,200 --> 00:43:29,640
Speaker 1: For our Plant the Flag games presented by Draft Kings.

902
00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:33,120
Speaker 1: The crown is yours.

903
00:43:34,080 --> 00:43:34,759
Speaker 6: And shut up.

904
00:43:34,960 --> 00:43:36,680
Speaker 3: I'm trying to plant my flag here.

905
00:43:36,760 --> 00:43:39,879
Speaker 1: Okay, you're really planning your flag in that day, Matt.

906
00:43:39,920 --> 00:43:41,440
Speaker 1: I don't know if you came ready for this or

907
00:43:41,480 --> 00:43:43,279
Speaker 1: if you just want to argue with us about the

908
00:43:43,280 --> 00:43:46,040
Speaker 1: picks that we have, but you are our guest today.

909
00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:49,000
Speaker 1: Matt Moore. By the way, you can follow him on

910
00:43:49,360 --> 00:43:53,680
Speaker 1: Buckets day after day, our daily NBA betting podcast where

911
00:43:53,719 --> 00:43:57,520
Speaker 1: Matt Moore orchestrates a phenomenal pod nearly every single day

912
00:43:57,520 --> 00:43:59,920
Speaker 1: of the week. We appreciate that. Matt, do you have

913
00:44:00,120 --> 00:44:03,240
Speaker 1: plant the flag game for us in honor of Stucky

914
00:44:03,280 --> 00:44:05,000
Speaker 1: who is out with child?

915
00:44:05,360 --> 00:44:07,160
Speaker 3: Oh man, Now that it's Stucky, I need to bet

916
00:44:07,160 --> 00:44:12,360
Speaker 3: on like the absolute ugliest dog in existence. Give me

917
00:44:12,360 --> 00:44:13,640
Speaker 3: a minute and I'll find it a word.

918
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:16,120
Speaker 1: I think Kendra might be taking the cake on ugliest

919
00:44:16,160 --> 00:44:19,759
Speaker 1: dog this week, although would that be the ugliest dog

920
00:44:19,840 --> 00:44:23,240
Speaker 1: might be the Las Vegas Raiders. I don't know anybody

921
00:44:23,239 --> 00:44:25,600
Speaker 1: that wants to take the Raiders plus fourteen and a

922
00:44:25,640 --> 00:44:28,640
Speaker 1: half would be the stinkiest ugliest dog of the week,

923
00:44:28,760 --> 00:44:29,160
Speaker 1: no doubt.

924
00:44:29,239 --> 00:44:33,680
Speaker 2: Can we talk about how the Raiders are more of

925
00:44:33,719 --> 00:44:39,000
Speaker 2: a dog than the fucking Philip Rivers led Indianapolis Colts.

926
00:44:39,920 --> 00:44:42,040
Speaker 2: It was thirteen close? It what thirteen and a half?

927
00:44:42,640 --> 00:44:45,600
Speaker 2: The Raiders are that bad? Like, are we serious? That's

928
00:44:45,680 --> 00:44:48,920
Speaker 2: insane to me. Could you imagine me sitting here five

929
00:44:48,960 --> 00:44:51,880
Speaker 2: months ago and being like, yeah, the Raiders are actually

930
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:53,840
Speaker 2: going to be more of a dog to the Texans

931
00:44:53,840 --> 00:44:57,520
Speaker 2: in Week sixteen than the Philip Rivers led Indianapolis Colts.

932
00:44:57,680 --> 00:45:00,640
Speaker 1: Yeah. I think it also speaks the thing how good

933
00:45:00,800 --> 00:45:04,000
Speaker 1: Houston has been too. And you have a defense that's

934
00:45:04,080 --> 00:45:07,280
Speaker 1: this good, taking on a quarterback that can't stop turning

935
00:45:07,320 --> 00:45:08,920
Speaker 1: the ball over. I think that's how you can.

936
00:45:08,960 --> 00:45:11,200
Speaker 2: If I have to go to Houston for the playoffs,

937
00:45:11,480 --> 00:45:13,840
Speaker 2: I will be the most miserable.

938
00:45:13,400 --> 00:45:19,080
Speaker 4: Person on this show. Anyways, I want the Chargers at home.

939
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:23,040
Speaker 1: Please, Matt Or would you like to plant your flag

940
00:45:23,160 --> 00:45:23,680
Speaker 1: this week?

941
00:45:24,239 --> 00:45:25,480
Speaker 3: Oh, I'm going Broncos.

942
00:45:25,760 --> 00:45:28,200
Speaker 1: Oh the Denver Broncos.

943
00:45:28,320 --> 00:45:30,160
Speaker 3: Broncos master three is we're up on my flag. Look,

944
00:45:30,160 --> 00:45:32,560
Speaker 3: this Jacks team's not good. They've been lucky all season.

945
00:45:32,560 --> 00:45:34,759
Speaker 3: Their fumble luck has been insane. Like they may, they

946
00:45:34,760 --> 00:45:38,480
Speaker 3: make to they may completely in consequently they play, they

947
00:45:38,520 --> 00:45:41,360
Speaker 3: make the dumbest decisions possible. Like there's a bunch of

948
00:45:41,400 --> 00:45:44,719
Speaker 3: frauds in the NFL. Like I'm a Chiefs fan and

949
00:45:44,760 --> 00:45:47,040
Speaker 3: we're out, and so I could say it, all of

950
00:45:47,080 --> 00:45:50,760
Speaker 3: you are frauds. Every single one of you are frauds.

951
00:45:50,920 --> 00:45:54,759
Speaker 3: Every team in the NFL completely fraudulent. This season doesn't count.

952
00:45:54,760 --> 00:45:55,759
Speaker 3: It needs an asterisk.

953
00:45:56,200 --> 00:45:58,480
Speaker 4: I was gonna ask who pissed in your corn flakes?

954
00:45:58,520 --> 00:45:59,200
Speaker 4: But I already know.

955
00:45:59,560 --> 00:46:03,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, Broncos minus three. This team is. I don't

956
00:46:03,920 --> 00:46:05,600
Speaker 3: know what it's going to take this for the market

957
00:46:05,600 --> 00:46:09,759
Speaker 3: to accurately rate Denver. Look, I'm a chieved fan. Why

958
00:46:09,800 --> 00:46:11,440
Speaker 3: do I want to hype up Denver? But I will

959
00:46:11,480 --> 00:46:15,440
Speaker 3: tell you that the market is consistently underrated them weeks

960
00:46:15,440 --> 00:46:17,520
Speaker 3: and weeks and weeks. And I understand why it's bon Nicks,

961
00:46:17,520 --> 00:46:19,480
Speaker 3: but unfortunately Bonex is playing great football.

962
00:46:19,560 --> 00:46:19,680
Speaker 2: Now.

963
00:46:19,680 --> 00:46:21,759
Speaker 3: I think they get to the playoffs and they get exposed,

964
00:46:22,160 --> 00:46:23,680
Speaker 3: but this Jacksonville team is not going to be the

965
00:46:23,680 --> 00:46:25,480
Speaker 3: team to do it. If we do home field flip

966
00:46:25,480 --> 00:46:27,520
Speaker 3: on this and we wind up with where this game

967
00:46:27,600 --> 00:46:29,400
Speaker 3: is currently kind of projected to be at, Like, I

968
00:46:29,480 --> 00:46:32,279
Speaker 3: just I can't get there, Like, under no circumstances can

969
00:46:32,320 --> 00:46:34,680
Speaker 3: I get to where this line should be what it is,

970
00:46:35,239 --> 00:46:37,319
Speaker 3: given how Denver has played on both sides of the ball.

971
00:46:37,360 --> 00:46:42,399
Speaker 3: Trevor Lawrence in altitude in December against this defense, Why

972
00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:44,440
Speaker 3: on earth do you want this? Why on earth is

973
00:46:44,440 --> 00:46:47,360
Speaker 3: this number nine? Like I cannot get to a spot

974
00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:50,560
Speaker 3: the Broncos on I do four and a half flip

975
00:46:50,560 --> 00:46:52,880
Speaker 3: for home field, I think this should be four and

976
00:46:52,920 --> 00:46:54,640
Speaker 3: a half five. I think this should actually probably be

977
00:46:54,680 --> 00:46:56,200
Speaker 3: closer to six because I think the Broncos should be

978
00:46:56,239 --> 00:46:59,959
Speaker 3: favored by a point on neutral Jacksonville is not going.

979
00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:02,440
Speaker 3: They have not been good all year. Trevor Lawrence is

980
00:47:02,440 --> 00:47:04,440
Speaker 3: going to get destroyed by that defense. Nick Beninito is

981
00:47:04,440 --> 00:47:06,759
Speaker 3: gonna eat him up. I'll take the Broncos. This is market.

982
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:08,920
Speaker 3: The market is still behind on Denver.

983
00:47:09,960 --> 00:47:11,920
Speaker 4: Wow, keep pay in, keep paying.

984
00:47:12,840 --> 00:47:16,960
Speaker 1: This is a Jaguars podcast. Some respect here.

985
00:47:17,320 --> 00:47:19,279
Speaker 4: No, keep payton That's what that's what we want. That's

986
00:47:19,280 --> 00:47:19,799
Speaker 4: what we want.

987
00:47:21,440 --> 00:47:23,560
Speaker 3: I mean, you guys lead the number of fans that

988
00:47:23,600 --> 00:47:26,400
Speaker 3: have gotten zombie rabies. That's cool. You got that going

989
00:47:26,440 --> 00:47:29,719
Speaker 3: for You got the you lead in. You lead in

990
00:47:29,800 --> 00:47:34,600
Speaker 3: tattoos that are likely drawn in some sort of illegal

991
00:47:34,600 --> 00:47:36,719
Speaker 3: ink that gives you skim poisoning amongst your fans. So

992
00:47:36,760 --> 00:47:37,719
Speaker 3: that's cool. Got that going.

993
00:47:37,800 --> 00:47:39,880
Speaker 4: I've got Jacksonville tattoos. I'm still balling.

994
00:47:42,120 --> 00:47:45,760
Speaker 1: Our dogs are named after this team, Oh dare you?

995
00:47:45,800 --> 00:47:48,640
Speaker 4: But my apartment is Jacksonville Jaguars themed.

996
00:47:49,200 --> 00:47:49,880
Speaker 3: That's amazing.

997
00:47:50,120 --> 00:47:53,680
Speaker 1: In terms of the advanced stats, these two teams are

998
00:47:53,760 --> 00:47:57,239
Speaker 1: a complete and utter mirror of each other in terms

999
00:47:57,320 --> 00:48:03,359
Speaker 1: of their some what ineptitude on putting together what is

1000
00:48:03,400 --> 00:48:08,400
Speaker 1: a requisite Super Bowl level offense, but having the defense

1001
00:48:09,200 --> 00:48:14,839
Speaker 1: that can absolutely carry you. So defensive EPA per drive.

1002
00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:18,360
Speaker 1: The Jags are six, the Broncos are eighth, so the

1003
00:48:18,400 --> 00:48:21,920
Speaker 1: Jags are better defensive points per drive. You have the

1004
00:48:22,000 --> 00:48:25,080
Speaker 1: Jags at six the Broncos at third, so neck and

1005
00:48:25,160 --> 00:48:29,879
Speaker 1: neck there, But the Jags kendra your squad thirty two

1006
00:48:29,920 --> 00:48:31,920
Speaker 1: points per game over the last five So I think

1007
00:48:31,960 --> 00:48:35,239
Speaker 1: some of these offensive numbers lately are a little bit

1008
00:48:35,280 --> 00:48:38,440
Speaker 1: skewed by how bad they were early in the season totally.

1009
00:48:38,520 --> 00:48:39,960
Speaker 2: And the other thing for me here is that I

1010
00:48:39,960 --> 00:48:42,200
Speaker 2: think the Broncos are due for a loss, right Like

1011
00:48:42,880 --> 00:48:47,160
Speaker 2: they looked good against the Packers, only beat the Raiders

1012
00:48:47,160 --> 00:48:49,680
Speaker 2: twenty four to seventeen, beat the Commanders by a point,

1013
00:48:50,320 --> 00:48:53,839
Speaker 2: the Chiefs game walk off field goal, other Raiders game

1014
00:48:53,920 --> 00:48:57,000
Speaker 2: ten to seven, the game before that, Broncos eighteen fifteen

1015
00:48:57,000 --> 00:48:58,920
Speaker 2: to a Texans team that was just kind of on

1016
00:48:58,960 --> 00:48:59,680
Speaker 2: the up.

1017
00:48:59,680 --> 00:49:02,439
Speaker 4: And up, like they beat the Giants by a point.

1018
00:49:02,560 --> 00:49:05,399
Speaker 2: I don't believe that this Broncos team is consistent as

1019
00:49:05,480 --> 00:49:08,640
Speaker 2: their winning stretch says that they are. And the other

1020
00:49:08,760 --> 00:49:12,320
Speaker 2: thing here is that, like, sure, the Chiefs are relying

1021
00:49:12,360 --> 00:49:14,799
Speaker 2: on Gardner Minshew and are eliminated from the playoffs now,

1022
00:49:14,840 --> 00:49:17,360
Speaker 2: but Broncos look ahead to two divisional games between the

1023
00:49:17,400 --> 00:49:20,560
Speaker 2: Chiefs and the Chargers. After that, the Jags have the

1024
00:49:20,600 --> 00:49:23,560
Speaker 2: Colts and the Titans, like could be an absolute look

1025
00:49:23,560 --> 00:49:27,319
Speaker 2: ahead spot for the Broncos to finally lose one. It's

1026
00:49:27,360 --> 00:49:29,359
Speaker 2: not that I think that the Jags are these world

1027
00:49:29,400 --> 00:49:31,439
Speaker 2: beaters who are scoring all of these points and Trevor

1028
00:49:31,520 --> 00:49:34,360
Speaker 2: Lawrence is finally arrived thing. It's more so just the

1029
00:49:34,400 --> 00:49:37,560
Speaker 2: Broncos luck has to run out at some point.

1030
00:49:38,400 --> 00:49:41,319
Speaker 1: Are the number one luckiest team in Nick Giffen's luck

1031
00:49:41,360 --> 00:49:43,160
Speaker 1: rankings as well. Keep that in mind.

1032
00:49:43,640 --> 00:49:48,360
Speaker 3: I look, I hear you, Sam Hoppins Composite Power rankings

1033
00:49:48,800 --> 00:49:51,200
Speaker 3: make this on neutral one point eight, which sounds about

1034
00:49:51,239 --> 00:49:53,120
Speaker 3: right to meybe like Broncos minus one point eight. But

1035
00:49:53,120 --> 00:49:55,520
Speaker 3: then you got to throw in home field advantage then

1036
00:49:55,680 --> 00:50:00,200
Speaker 3: for the Broncos in again altitude December. Do you you

1037
00:50:00,239 --> 00:50:04,280
Speaker 3: want the warm weather team going into Denver in December

1038
00:50:04,320 --> 00:50:05,000
Speaker 3: trying to get this win.

1039
00:50:06,200 --> 00:50:09,080
Speaker 1: Yeah. The fact that I'm I'm definitely not betting the

1040
00:50:09,080 --> 00:50:12,160
Speaker 1: Broncos here. For me, it's Jags plus three or pass,

1041
00:50:12,280 --> 00:50:14,520
Speaker 1: but I have not bet it yet. And the fact

1042
00:50:14,520 --> 00:50:17,719
Speaker 1: that it's sitting at such a favorable key number and

1043
00:50:17,800 --> 00:50:21,040
Speaker 1: I'm not pulling the trigger means that I'm also still

1044
00:50:21,080 --> 00:50:23,080
Speaker 1: holding back a little bit on this Jags team.

1045
00:50:23,160 --> 00:50:25,040
Speaker 4: So everybody shut up.

1046
00:50:25,120 --> 00:50:27,840
Speaker 2: It is seventy degrees in Denver right now, and it

1047
00:50:27,920 --> 00:50:30,120
Speaker 2: is going to be sixty on Sunday.

1048
00:50:30,600 --> 00:50:33,319
Speaker 4: Shut the fuck up with your weather bullshit. No, get

1049
00:50:33,400 --> 00:50:33,919
Speaker 4: out of here.

1050
00:50:34,000 --> 00:50:34,640
Speaker 1: I live here.

1051
00:50:34,760 --> 00:50:37,880
Speaker 3: It does not feel like that. It will not feel like.

1052
00:50:37,920 --> 00:50:39,560
Speaker 3: Oh man, it's fifty five.

1053
00:50:39,440 --> 00:50:43,439
Speaker 2: Degrees and you're wearing a beanie.

1054
00:50:42,200 --> 00:50:45,080
Speaker 3: Wearing all that is. It's cold here. I'm you brought

1055
00:50:45,120 --> 00:50:46,880
Speaker 3: this heat in the head, Kendra.

1056
00:50:47,080 --> 00:50:50,360
Speaker 2: I live in Boston and it's snowing. It's thirteen degrees outside.

1057
00:50:50,560 --> 00:50:52,440
Speaker 1: All right, I'm gonna give out my plant the flag

1058
00:50:52,480 --> 00:50:55,400
Speaker 1: and we going Brown's plus ten. Uh?

1059
00:50:56,120 --> 00:50:57,200
Speaker 4: Did you guys just show uh?

1060
00:50:57,280 --> 00:50:58,479
Speaker 1: Go ahead, Kendra? Go ahead?

1061
00:50:58,480 --> 00:51:01,360
Speaker 2: No, no, no, no, you both you We'll plan this show

1062
00:51:01,480 --> 00:51:04,240
Speaker 2: to show up and be like, how can we bully

1063
00:51:04,320 --> 00:51:06,040
Speaker 2: Kendra collectively this week?

1064
00:51:06,320 --> 00:51:08,480
Speaker 4: Because it will make for good content. I know that's

1065
00:51:08,480 --> 00:51:10,200
Speaker 4: what you did. I know you two. On the same

1066
00:51:10,200 --> 00:51:11,160
Speaker 4: show you schemed.

1067
00:51:11,200 --> 00:51:13,399
Speaker 2: You were like, let's crap on the Jags and let's

1068
00:51:13,400 --> 00:51:15,280
Speaker 2: steal her look ahead pick from Sunday.

1069
00:51:15,480 --> 00:51:16,280
Speaker 4: That'll be great.

1070
00:51:16,640 --> 00:51:18,879
Speaker 1: We call that a dribble handoff on the other show

1071
00:51:18,920 --> 00:51:19,319
Speaker 1: that we do.

1072
00:51:19,640 --> 00:51:21,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, get down, hell yeah, all right?

1073
00:51:21,800 --> 00:51:25,040
Speaker 2: Who you got, Kendre, I was all over the Broncos

1074
00:51:25,040 --> 00:51:27,560
Speaker 2: on or all over the Browns on Sunday plus the ten.

1075
00:51:27,680 --> 00:51:30,000
Speaker 2: I'm still on the Browns here. I logged Don to

1076
00:51:30,040 --> 00:51:32,520
Speaker 2: fill in our notes and Cravits had Browns plus ten.

1077
00:51:32,600 --> 00:51:34,920
Speaker 2: Even though I would all in on the Browns on

1078
00:51:34,960 --> 00:51:37,799
Speaker 2: our show on Sunday, he tried to. He tried to

1079
00:51:37,880 --> 00:51:40,239
Speaker 2: pry them from my cold dead hands. But you know,

1080
00:51:40,400 --> 00:51:41,840
Speaker 2: since I got to the window on the Seahawks, you

1081
00:51:41,840 --> 00:51:42,799
Speaker 2: can have the Browns.

1082
00:51:43,520 --> 00:51:45,839
Speaker 1: Oh okay, awesome, Well then let me get in that

1083
00:51:46,040 --> 00:51:48,279
Speaker 1: cap Let me give you my cap on what thank

1084
00:51:48,320 --> 00:51:49,680
Speaker 1: you for that? By the way, because I was going

1085
00:51:49,719 --> 00:51:52,520
Speaker 1: to force feed everybody the Sad Cats and the Carona

1086
00:51:52,560 --> 00:51:56,400
Speaker 1: Panthers at plus three? Uh, but yeah, let's go with

1087
00:51:56,560 --> 00:51:58,719
Speaker 1: ten is one of the key numbers that we look for.

1088
00:51:58,920 --> 00:52:01,160
Speaker 1: And if this were to draw up to nine and

1089
00:52:01,239 --> 00:52:03,600
Speaker 1: a half by Wednesday or Thursday, I would be kicking

1090
00:52:03,640 --> 00:52:06,520
Speaker 1: myself that I didn't get that insurance. Ten ten and

1091
00:52:06,560 --> 00:52:09,319
Speaker 1: a half's might pop up, But rarely do we see

1092
00:52:09,400 --> 00:52:13,240
Speaker 1: NFL games stick on those key numbers for very long,

1093
00:52:13,640 --> 00:52:16,399
Speaker 1: and we know the Browns are a different animal at

1094
00:52:16,400 --> 00:52:19,760
Speaker 1: home this season alone, four and two against the spread

1095
00:52:19,760 --> 00:52:23,759
Speaker 1: in Cleveland, one and six against the spread anywhere else. Buffalo,

1096
00:52:23,880 --> 00:52:26,239
Speaker 1: also off of the game of their lives, had to

1097
00:52:26,280 --> 00:52:29,560
Speaker 1: expend a lot of energy emotionally physically. They're down twenty

1098
00:52:29,600 --> 00:52:33,720
Speaker 1: one against their fiercest rival currently in the AFC East.

1099
00:52:33,840 --> 00:52:37,280
Speaker 1: It is a letdown spot for Buffalo against the defense

1100
00:52:37,360 --> 00:52:41,359
Speaker 1: that Wen trust and have throughout the season when they

1101
00:52:41,400 --> 00:52:44,719
Speaker 1: are at home. So give me the Brownies and a

1102
00:52:44,840 --> 00:52:49,200
Speaker 1: bad quarterback in Shador Sanders at plus ten co sign

1103
00:52:50,120 --> 00:52:53,719
Speaker 1: Napsley good with that, matt Any pushback.

1104
00:52:54,800 --> 00:52:57,160
Speaker 3: Josh Allen's four and one after a fourth quarter comeback

1105
00:52:57,400 --> 00:53:02,719
Speaker 3: ats Yeah, he doesn't get caught. I was wondering, like,

1106
00:53:02,760 --> 00:53:04,200
Speaker 3: is that a bad spot for I'm actually surprised he

1107
00:53:04,200 --> 00:53:04,960
Speaker 3: doesn't have more of those.

1108
00:53:05,239 --> 00:53:09,800
Speaker 1: But this is one that will definitely be talking to

1109
00:53:09,800 --> 00:53:13,759
Speaker 1: Evan about in just a second. But Josh Allen is

1110
00:53:13,760 --> 00:53:16,640
Speaker 1: a fat favorite. I don't think is how you want

1111
00:53:16,680 --> 00:53:20,480
Speaker 1: to bet them? Those are plant the Flag games presented

1112
00:53:20,760 --> 00:53:25,840
Speaker 1: by Draft Kings. Actually, Kendra, since well, would you like

1113
00:53:25,920 --> 00:53:28,880
Speaker 1: to double down on the Seattle Seahawks. I need to

1114
00:53:28,880 --> 00:53:30,720
Speaker 1: make sure I'm writing this down because I'm not giving

1115
00:53:30,719 --> 00:53:33,719
Speaker 1: you proper credit on our Sunday recap show. So this

1116
00:53:34,080 --> 00:53:38,400
Speaker 1: is getting logged in my notes. Seattle plus one is

1117
00:53:38,440 --> 00:53:39,799
Speaker 1: that your plant the flag game.

1118
00:53:40,120 --> 00:53:41,160
Speaker 4: Let's go with it.

1119
00:53:41,160 --> 00:53:44,440
Speaker 2: It's already in the app for me. So yeah, I planted.

1120
00:53:44,520 --> 00:53:46,560
Speaker 2: I planted my flag, all right.

1121
00:53:46,600 --> 00:53:50,400
Speaker 1: So we've got Kendra at plus one, Matt Moore in

1122
00:53:50,440 --> 00:53:55,200
Speaker 1: place of Stuckey Broncos minus three, and I have stolen

1123
00:53:55,280 --> 00:54:00,239
Speaker 1: the Browns plus ten. Those are those are planing flat

1124
00:54:00,320 --> 00:54:04,840
Speaker 1: games presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours. Time for

1125
00:54:04,920 --> 00:54:07,120
Speaker 1: the main event. No betting week can start without it.

1126
00:54:07,120 --> 00:54:11,600
Speaker 1: It's the primer. Courtesy of Evan Abrams. Evan, welcome to

1127
00:54:12,200 --> 00:54:15,320
Speaker 1: the show. Do you have a dog named Jackson?

1128
00:54:15,640 --> 00:54:17,440
Speaker 6: I do not have a dog name Jackson. I did

1129
00:54:17,480 --> 00:54:20,480
Speaker 6: have a cat named Parlay. But that is that is

1130
00:54:20,480 --> 00:54:22,640
Speaker 6: the situation. I will leave right now. You guys have

1131
00:54:22,719 --> 00:54:25,040
Speaker 6: asked me a bunch of questions, so let me just

1132
00:54:25,239 --> 00:54:28,400
Speaker 6: roll off some answers to your wonderful questions. So we

1133
00:54:28,480 --> 00:54:31,520
Speaker 6: talked about fading open as a dog closed as a favorite.

1134
00:54:31,600 --> 00:54:35,080
Speaker 6: It's like forty seven percent since twenty nineteen and about

1135
00:54:35,080 --> 00:54:37,359
Speaker 6: like four or five games under five hundred this year.

1136
00:54:37,719 --> 00:54:40,040
Speaker 6: If you toss in division in that it's about the

1137
00:54:40,040 --> 00:54:43,040
Speaker 6: same kind of like five games or so under five hundred.

1138
00:54:43,080 --> 00:54:46,640
Speaker 6: It's usually a pretty bad sign. And this is using

1139
00:54:47,040 --> 00:54:51,879
Speaker 6: mostly look ahead, open to whatever clothes would be. So

1140
00:54:52,120 --> 00:54:54,359
Speaker 6: there's a few games that fit in that spot this week,

1141
00:54:54,400 --> 00:54:58,000
Speaker 6: but yeah, not the best sign going forward. I'll say

1142
00:54:58,040 --> 00:55:01,240
Speaker 6: one other thing you guys mentioned. McVeigh on short rest

1143
00:55:01,719 --> 00:55:05,520
Speaker 6: seventeen and eight against the spread, so pretty dang good.

1144
00:55:06,320 --> 00:55:09,640
Speaker 6: And Stafford six and oh in his career against Seattle

1145
00:55:09,880 --> 00:55:12,000
Speaker 6: covering the spread by over five points per game, so

1146
00:55:12,600 --> 00:55:15,960
Speaker 6: decent spot. Obviously, No Puka, I mean, I'm sorry, No DeVante,

1147
00:55:16,400 --> 00:55:18,880
Speaker 6: And the note DeVante thing I think is massive in

1148
00:55:19,000 --> 00:55:21,480
Speaker 6: terms of red zone target its goal line work, like

1149
00:55:21,560 --> 00:55:23,600
Speaker 6: all that stuff leads the league in the NFL, so

1150
00:55:23,920 --> 00:55:26,560
Speaker 6: definitely gonna have to change how they run there. The

1151
00:55:26,640 --> 00:55:29,080
Speaker 6: one other one that match just mentioned pretty great, so

1152
00:55:29,520 --> 00:55:33,600
Speaker 6: Bills and Falcons both off fourteen plus point Cobra comebacks

1153
00:55:34,040 --> 00:55:37,720
Speaker 6: teams in that spot fifty nine and seventy eight last decade,

1154
00:55:37,840 --> 00:55:40,719
Speaker 6: but Buffalo five and oh straight up and against the

1155
00:55:40,760 --> 00:55:43,640
Speaker 6: spread and that spot all since twenty nineteen, So that's Josh.

1156
00:55:43,680 --> 00:55:46,600
Speaker 6: So that is the right call there, But again, tough

1157
00:55:46,640 --> 00:55:48,880
Speaker 6: spot overall, but that is true.

1158
00:55:49,200 --> 00:55:51,480
Speaker 1: What about Josh Allen as a big favorite. I know

1159
00:55:51,520 --> 00:55:53,440
Speaker 1: I've seen that one on the primer in the past.

1160
00:55:54,239 --> 00:55:55,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, not great.

1161
00:55:55,239 --> 00:55:57,520
Speaker 6: I'd have to pull that in a second, but I

1162
00:55:57,560 --> 00:56:00,720
Speaker 6: know historically hasn't been great as a big favorite, especially

1163
00:56:00,800 --> 00:56:02,920
Speaker 6: laying ten on the road. So I'll have that in

1164
00:56:02,920 --> 00:56:03,399
Speaker 6: a little bit.

1165
00:56:04,160 --> 00:56:07,880
Speaker 1: Last one for me, Andy Reid with a backup quarterback.

1166
00:56:07,920 --> 00:56:12,400
Speaker 1: We didn't mention the Chiefs Titans game. When the Chiefs

1167
00:56:12,480 --> 00:56:14,840
Speaker 1: are three and a half point road favorites, it feels

1168
00:56:14,880 --> 00:56:18,840
Speaker 1: like this is a Titan spot. But how it has

1169
00:56:20,040 --> 00:56:22,960
Speaker 1: How have Chiefs backups performed under Reid?

1170
00:56:23,400 --> 00:56:25,440
Speaker 6: Actually pretty good? Hold on, I need a quick second.

1171
00:56:25,440 --> 00:56:28,640
Speaker 6: I would think go through all of my stuff here.

1172
00:56:28,880 --> 00:56:31,759
Speaker 6: Since Andy Reid arrived in Case in twenty thirteen, he's

1173
00:56:31,760 --> 00:56:34,640
Speaker 6: gone to a backup quarterback seven times. He's actually four

1174
00:56:34,640 --> 00:56:36,560
Speaker 6: and three straight up and against the spread in those games,

1175
00:56:36,600 --> 00:56:40,080
Speaker 6: so not terrible. And also the thing that usually works

1176
00:56:40,080 --> 00:56:43,239
Speaker 6: with Gardner Minshew is he follows his role in his

1177
00:56:43,320 --> 00:56:45,479
Speaker 6: career as a starter. He's actually four and oh straight

1178
00:56:45,520 --> 00:56:47,960
Speaker 6: up against the spread. As a road favorite, nine and

1179
00:56:48,080 --> 00:56:50,759
Speaker 6: five straight up as a favorite, eight and twenty four

1180
00:56:50,800 --> 00:56:53,960
Speaker 6: as an underdog, so usually follows the role of the line.

1181
00:56:54,080 --> 00:56:56,400
Speaker 2: If I'm not mistaken, the last time we saw a

1182
00:56:56,520 --> 00:56:59,880
Speaker 2: backup for the Chiefs was the twenty twenty three playoff

1183
00:57:00,040 --> 00:57:03,320
Speaker 2: game against the Jaguars in Kansas City when Patrick Mahomes

1184
00:57:03,320 --> 00:57:05,759
Speaker 2: went out for a little bit in the fourth quarter

1185
00:57:05,840 --> 00:57:08,120
Speaker 2: and Blaine Gabbert came in and secured that win for them.

1186
00:57:08,160 --> 00:57:11,600
Speaker 4: If I'm not mistaken, believe that's correct.

1187
00:57:11,680 --> 00:57:15,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, but we had some chat Henny games in there

1188
00:57:15,200 --> 00:57:16,000
Speaker 1: too in the past.

1189
00:57:16,880 --> 00:57:18,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, it was anything as possible.

1190
00:57:19,960 --> 00:57:22,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know. Part of it is that the Chiefs

1191
00:57:22,240 --> 00:57:25,320
Speaker 1: have had good backup quarterbacks over the years. That definitely

1192
00:57:25,360 --> 00:57:26,360
Speaker 1: helps in all of this.

1193
00:57:26,960 --> 00:57:30,000
Speaker 4: The Jags trash Chad Honey and Blaine Gabbert.

1194
00:57:30,440 --> 00:57:32,240
Speaker 1: We know Minshew can cover a spread here in.

1195
00:57:32,240 --> 00:57:35,400
Speaker 4: The Gardner minshewe Oh my god, yep.

1196
00:57:35,840 --> 00:57:39,320
Speaker 1: Anything else for the professor before we cut him loose? Uh?

1197
00:57:39,400 --> 00:57:42,400
Speaker 6: I mean Baker five and zero straight up versus Caroline

1198
00:57:42,440 --> 00:57:44,640
Speaker 6: in his career, which is pretty decent for that spot.

1199
00:57:45,080 --> 00:57:47,320
Speaker 6: And here's the great one. Panthers going for their eighth

1200
00:57:47,360 --> 00:57:50,760
Speaker 6: win as an underdog. Chiefs going for their eighth loss

1201
00:57:50,840 --> 00:57:54,080
Speaker 6: as a favorite. Both very historical in their own rights.

1202
00:57:54,200 --> 00:57:56,360
Speaker 6: In case he's lost six straight against the spread, all

1203
00:57:56,360 --> 00:57:59,320
Speaker 6: sorts of fun stuff there. I will say this the

1204
00:57:59,360 --> 00:58:03,680
Speaker 6: Denver angle. So Denver has obviously won eleven consecutive games,

1205
00:58:03,720 --> 00:58:08,040
Speaker 6: but hey, Jacksonville won five straight and covered five straight.

1206
00:58:08,040 --> 00:58:11,800
Speaker 6: We've only seen that situation like three times since nineteen ninety,

1207
00:58:12,000 --> 00:58:14,200
Speaker 6: and not since the two thousand and seven AFC title

1208
00:58:14,200 --> 00:58:18,200
Speaker 6: game Patriots Chargers. So a very unique spot, and the

1209
00:58:18,400 --> 00:58:22,160
Speaker 6: beware on Denver since nineteen ninety teams on an eleven

1210
00:58:22,200 --> 00:58:26,680
Speaker 6: plus game win streak fourteen thirty six and two against

1211
00:58:26,680 --> 00:58:29,000
Speaker 6: the spread. But usually I would say I'd have to look.

1212
00:58:29,240 --> 00:58:32,840
Speaker 6: I bet you that spreads much higher historically as well

1213
00:58:33,000 --> 00:58:34,360
Speaker 6: than just a three point spread.

1214
00:58:34,720 --> 00:58:37,480
Speaker 1: Yeah anything, Thank you so much. Go check out the primer.

1215
00:58:37,520 --> 00:58:39,840
Speaker 1: It's the only way to start the betting week properly.

1216
00:58:40,000 --> 00:58:42,760
Speaker 1: That'll do it for today's episode special thanks to our

1217
00:58:42,760 --> 00:58:46,720
Speaker 1: producers David Payne and Gifford Gold. The Favorites. We'll return

1218
00:58:46,800 --> 00:58:49,800
Speaker 1: on Thursday right here on the Action Network YouTube page,

1219
00:58:49,840 --> 00:58:53,560
Speaker 1: where we talk Week sixteen best bets in the NFL

1220
00:58:53,720 --> 00:58:56,960
Speaker 1: and our two Kings and a Queen parlay gets nominated.

1221
00:58:57,080 --> 00:58:58,880
Speaker 1: We'll see you back here next time. On the Favorites

1222
00:58:58,880 --> 00:59:02,560
Speaker 1: presented by Draft Gangs, we are out. Thank you Matt Moore, goodbye,

1223
00:59:02,640 --> 00:59:12,360
Speaker 1: go back to bucket.

1224
00:59:14,000 --> 00:59:18,520
Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1225
00:59:18,520 --> 00:59:21,320
Speaker 4: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1226
00:59:21,360 --> 00:59:24,440
Speaker 4: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler