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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: The conflict in the Middle East escalated further today with

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Speaker 2: Iran attacking Israel for the second time in five months.

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Speaker 2: Iran launched ballistic missiles at key cities in Israel, sending

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Speaker 2: Israelis into shelters for safety. US National Security Advisor Jake

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Speaker 2: Sullivan called the attack ineffective and said US warships helped

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Speaker 2: to intercept the roughly two hundred missiles Iran fired at Israel.

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Speaker 3: We have made clear that there will be consequences, secure

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Speaker 3: consequences for this attack, and we will work with Israel.

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Speaker 2: Israel has also vowed to respond. Iran State TV is

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Speaker 2: calling this the first wave of an attack and says

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Speaker 2: its retaliation for the killing of senior figures in Hamas

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Speaker 2: and Husbalah. The volley of missiles from Iran comes hours

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Speaker 2: after Israel launched a ground incursion into Lebanon in the

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Speaker 2: early morning on Tuesday.

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Speaker 3: What happened is effectively Israel launched a significant and thus

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Speaker 3: grounded code into Lebanese territory so it not to be

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Speaker 3: unnoticed by the world.

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Speaker 2: The Israel Defense Force is called the ground Raids against

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Speaker 2: Hezbollah quote limited, localized and targeted.

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Speaker 3: I think at this point in time, with Israeli's reeling

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Speaker 3: from the October seventh attack, they will accept nothing less

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Speaker 3: than a tangible, observable dislodging of Hesbela from southern Lebanon

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Speaker 3: and a tangible stripping of Hesbela's means of attacking Israeli

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Speaker 3: sites with strategic weaponry.

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Speaker 2: Dan Williams is a reporter in Bloomberg's Jerusalem bureau.

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Speaker 3: They will want to see Hesbela positions being toppled, Hesbela

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Speaker 3: flags coming down, and a reassurance that there will be

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Speaker 3: no visual, at least palpable return of those forces in

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Speaker 3: the coming years.

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Speaker 2: In recent weeks, Israel has killed almost all of Hasbela's

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Speaker 2: senior leadership, including Hassan Israla, who is the group's long

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Speaker 2: time secretary general. While HISBOLA has vowed to respond, its

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Speaker 2: capabilities have been severely degraded.

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Speaker 3: So what we heard from the Israeli side, Israel's assessment

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Speaker 3: is that compared to its pre war fighting capacity, it's

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Speaker 3: now down sixty to seventy percent. That's when it comes

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Speaker 3: to the rockets and missiles that can really hurt Israel.

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Speaker 2: This is the big take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gerra.

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Speaker 2: On today's episode, we'll talk with Dan Williams and Bloomberg's

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Speaker 2: Jumani Brussecci, who's based in Dubai about the latest attack

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Speaker 2: in the Middle East. When I got Bloomberg's Dan Williams

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Speaker 2: on the phone, it was mid morning in New York

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Speaker 2: and late afternoon in Israel. Dan was in a car

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Speaker 2: near Israel's border with Lebanon. Dan Israel has called these

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Speaker 2: ground rates limited, localized, and targeted. Helped me with that phrase.

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Speaker 2: What does it mean exactly?

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Speaker 3: I think this is code for we're not going to

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Speaker 3: go into a be route, We're not going to occupy

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Speaker 3: leben We're going to try to restrain the already very

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Speaker 3: significant disruption to Lebanese civilian life. And we're doing this

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Speaker 3: in order to prevent an October seventh style attack from

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Speaker 3: the north, from the northern border on our communities. Keep

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Speaker 3: in mind that the actual anniversary of the actual October

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Speaker 3: seventh attack by Hamas the first anniversary of this war,

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Speaker 3: is just days away. So Israel is effectively bookending this

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Speaker 3: year with what it's describing as a necessary ground forces

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Speaker 3: raid incursion. It's not using the word invasion. It's using

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Speaker 3: the word operation in order to put paid to any

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Speaker 3: prospect of Heswela's special forces doing a copycat strike, a

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Speaker 3: copycat rampage in northern Israel to what Hamas did from

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Speaker 3: Gaza almost exactly a year ago.

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Speaker 2: In recent weeks, Israel mounted a major attack on his Bula,

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Speaker 2: detonating pageries in walkie talkies along with air strikes. Jamana

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Speaker 2: Brisset has been covering the conflict from Dubai. Jamana Dan

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Speaker 2: has given us the backstory here. What's led to this incursion?

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Speaker 2: Israel and Hesbla exchanging rocket fire for months, Israel bombing

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Speaker 2: the center of Beirut and then killing Hasan Esrala, the

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Speaker 2: head of Hesbela. How much has that killing destabilized this group?

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Speaker 2: In Esrala had led Hesbla for decades.

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Speaker 4: Certainly very destabilizing for the group. And it didn't just

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Speaker 4: start with that. Of course, the cross border attacks, as

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Speaker 4: Dan was just articulating, started the day after October seventh,

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Speaker 4: and since that point the daily, almost daily crossfire has continued,

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Speaker 4: but within certain parameters there were almost rules of engagements

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Speaker 4: with these tit for tet responses from Lebanon into Israel

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Speaker 4: and Israel back into Lebanon until a couple of weeks ago,

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Speaker 4: and that all changed. The first catalyst was the explosions

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Speaker 4: that went on in the walkie talkies and pagers that

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Speaker 4: critically injured thousands, and then subsequently air strikes begun, and

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Speaker 4: then we started to see that systematically at senior commanders,

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Speaker 4: at elite level, what they would call radwan fighting level

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Speaker 4: within the Hasbella group started getting killed. And all of that,

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Speaker 4: of course culminated with the killing of Hassan Asrela himself,

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Speaker 4: who was the secondary general and has held that position

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Speaker 4: since nineteen ninety two, on Friday's airstrikes. So it has

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Speaker 4: been a deeply destabilizing couple of weeks.

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Speaker 1: With the group. From the perspective of their communications system,

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Speaker 1: their command system, and their infrastructure, they have never seen

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Speaker 1: a setback like this, and actually, in one of the

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Speaker 1: last speeches that Hassan Astrella gave, he conceded that the

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Speaker 1: telecommunications devices exploding was actually the biggest setback the group

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Speaker 1: has ever seen. Now.

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Speaker 2: Habela, which is designated a terrorist group by the United

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Speaker 2: States and the European Union, is supported by Iran, and

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Speaker 2: Iran has responded to the killing of Masraala and other

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Speaker 2: Seniorhbela leaders with today's missile attack on Israel. I asked

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Speaker 2: Jamana about support of Hasbola in the wake of Nosraala's death.

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Speaker 4: From Iran's perspective, Hesbela has been the crown jewel and

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Speaker 4: their so called access of resistance. Hassan Atola himself enjoyed

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Speaker 4: very close relationship with the Ayatollah, and so this was

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Speaker 4: a personal blow to the Iranian regime but also a

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Speaker 4: massive foreign policy blow for them as well.

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Speaker 2: Jimana, we've talked about Asbola's capabilities militarily, but I wonder

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Speaker 2: if we could put this in a broader context. And

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Speaker 2: this is a group that's been so destabilized as a

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Speaker 2: result of what's happened here in recent weeks, how is

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Speaker 2: that playing out in politics in Lebanon. This is a

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Speaker 2: group that of course started out as a militia, but

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Speaker 2: has grown into something much more than that.

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Speaker 4: Exactly, so, the group evolved from a militia group into

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Speaker 4: one that wielded significant political influence, very strong and substantial

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Speaker 4: military arsenal, of course, backed by Iran and Leeteraran, increasingly

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Speaker 4: by Syria, but it also had a very strong social

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Speaker 4: influence as well. And to understand that, you need to

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Speaker 4: understand the way the political system is set up in Lebanon.

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Speaker 4: The Lebanon government system is based on sectarian power sharing structure.

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Speaker 4: So broadly speaking, you have eighteen different religious sex in Lebanon,

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Speaker 4: and the constitution guarantees that all of these religious sects

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Speaker 4: in the country are ensured representation in governments. Over the years,

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Speaker 4: what this has done is it's created a system of

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Speaker 4: patronage and identity politics represented by certain figureheads across these

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Speaker 4: different sects, rather than a coherent central governing system. So

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Speaker 4: under that system of patronage, Hesbullah gradually transitioned away from

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Speaker 4: just being a militia group that wielded significant political influence

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Speaker 4: because it was beholden to a group of very loyal

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Speaker 4: supporters who they in turn offered a lot of social

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Speaker 4: support system. They offered schooling, they offered education, they offered

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Speaker 4: health services, and on the back of that they built

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Speaker 4: up a very loyal base. What this meant that over

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Speaker 4: the years, as Hesbellah gradually gained and influence politically, you

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Speaker 4: saw alliances come and go and change with Hesbala's relative

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Speaker 4: growing influence as well, and so more recently, it was

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Speaker 4: impossible for any decisions at a government level to be

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Speaker 4: made without the consent of Hesbalah and its allies, and

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Speaker 4: so the central government effectively lost its decision making capacity

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Speaker 4: because it was beholden to groups that were either loyal

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Speaker 4: to Hesbalah or allied to Hesbalah. And that explains the

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Speaker 4: absence of a functioning central government right now in Lebanon.

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Speaker 2: After the break. How does Israel's ground incursion into Lebanon

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Speaker 2: fit into Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's broader military strategy and

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Speaker 2: what does all this mean for Lebanon's economy and its future.

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Speaker 2: Earlier today, we reached out to Bloomberg reporters Dan Williams,

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Speaker 2: who's based in Jerusalem, and Jumana Bersecci or do By

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Speaker 2: Bureau to talk about Israel's ground incursion into Lebanon. Dan,

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Speaker 2: what is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said about the goals here?

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Speaker 2: How does this sort of fit into the broader military

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Speaker 2: strategy as we approach the anniversary of the attacks? On

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Speaker 2: October seventh, some.

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Speaker 3: Three weeks ago, the Israeli Cabinet passed a third war

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Speaker 3: goal in addition to the two war goals. It's set

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Speaker 3: out in Gaza quite soon after the Hamas attack that

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Speaker 3: precipitated the war. Those war goals were explicit, they were aggressive.

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Speaker 3: One was the defeat of Hamas. The second was the

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Speaker 3: recovery of all hostages taken by Hamas. The new war

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Speaker 3: goal that applies to Lebanon is comparatively recessive. It's restrained.

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Speaker 3: It talks rather simply about the safe return of some

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Speaker 3: sixty thousand Israeli civilians who were displaced from their homes

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Speaker 3: in the north by Hesbala attacks. The effect of this

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Speaker 3: has been to basically tell the world, listen, if you

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Speaker 3: want to come in and provide a diplomat solution, welcome.

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Speaker 3: This is the result we want. Now. Israel appears to

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Speaker 3: have run out of patients when it comes to months

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Speaker 3: long efforts by the United States, by France, by others

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Speaker 3: to come up with a consensual and negotiated solution that

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Speaker 3: would stop Hesbela attacks and withdraw Hesbela from the border area.

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Speaker 3: And now it has gone aggressive, very aggressive, with this

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Speaker 3: cascade of quite extraordinary attacks, first sabotage and now open

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Speaker 3: barrages and now a ground campaign, albeit limited. Israel's aim

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Speaker 3: is the safe return of its citizens. It says, and

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Speaker 3: that would suggest that it's not looking for a long

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Speaker 3: term conflict on the Lebanese front. Indeed, it might be

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Speaker 3: open to an arrangement whereby once Hesbela is dislodged from

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Speaker 3: southern Lebanon, the Lebanese army would come in and secure it,

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Speaker 3: perhaps a stronger United Nations peacekeeper force. No doubt these

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Speaker 3: readies would want some role in that to ensure they

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Speaker 3: call it trust and verify the American phrase, to ensure

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Speaker 3: that has follow would not abuse.

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Speaker 2: This would not come back, Jimana. The ground incursion came

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Speaker 2: at an especially sensitive moment economically for Lebanon, which I

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Speaker 2: know has been struggling with debt, struggling with inflation. What

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Speaker 2: can you tell us about that situation.

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Speaker 4: Lebanon economically was on its knees even before the war started.

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Speaker 4: You may recall that it defaulted on its debt a

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Speaker 4: couple of years ago. They have not been able to

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Speaker 4: even negotiate a restructuring. The country experienced rampant inflation over

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Speaker 4: the course of the last few years. The currency has

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Speaker 4: devalued more than ninety percent. The World Bank estimate that

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Speaker 4: up to eighty percent of the population are now living

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Speaker 4: under the poverty line. So this is just to give

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Speaker 4: you a snapshot of this starting point, and all of

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Speaker 4: this rapid economic deterioration happened in the last couple of

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Speaker 4: years in the absence of a function in government. There

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Speaker 4: is no government and therefore no institutional decisions have been

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Speaker 4: made in the last couple of years. You add to

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Speaker 4: that now the country is actively engaged in what it

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Speaker 4: says is wartime defense. You add to that the fact

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Speaker 4: that per the Prime Minister, more than one million people

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Speaker 4: from across the country have been displaced. Many of them

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Speaker 4: would have been Shira, the Shira population living in the south,

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Speaker 4: who historically would have been very loyal to Hesbala. They're

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Speaker 4: now scattered around the country looking for a place of safety,

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Speaker 4: looking for security, looking for shelter, looking for food and

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Speaker 4: at per the UN numbers, one hundred thousand Lebanese have

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Speaker 4: actually fled into Syria, which tells you how dire the

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Speaker 4: situation is the fact that Lebanon people in Lebanon are

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Speaker 4: moving to Syria and seeing it as a safe haven.

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Speaker 4: So there is a lot of pressure on the country institutionally, economically,

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Speaker 4: also politically, and you've got to think given that setup,

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Speaker 4: the international community may want to step in as a

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Speaker 4: last chance to stop Lebanon from turning into a full

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Speaker 4: fledged failed state, in which case that could recavoc across

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Speaker 4: the broader region.

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Speaker 2: Dan, where's the response been to this incursion? Globally? We've

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Speaker 2: seen this real increasingly isolated on the world stage. This

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Speaker 2: was an incursion that the US desperately didn't want to happen.

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Speaker 2: There was a lot of backchannel negotiation, and it did.

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Speaker 2: What's the response been to it?

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Speaker 3: I think there's a great deal of consternation. I think

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Speaker 3: the world does not want to see a second front

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Speaker 3: to this war, at least s a second ground war

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Speaker 3: following on to Gaza, and that's what this looks like

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Speaker 3: to them. Hence the Israeli messaging about not only this

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Speaker 3: being limited in scope and depths, but effectively this having

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Speaker 3: been going on a smaller scale for months now with

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Speaker 3: no one really being the wiser apart from presumably the

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Speaker 3: commander is involved in the Hesbola members observing them from

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Speaker 3: a safe distance. So the American view, which is probably

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Speaker 3: the one the only one that Israel is really taking

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Speaker 3: into account right now, is hard to appreciate without factoring

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Speaker 3: in the US electoral clocks. The factor is a US

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Speaker 3: election here. It's unlikely that the Biden administration or Vice

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Speaker 3: President Harris would want of publicly lockhorns with Israel over

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Speaker 3: what Israel is describing as the war for its very survival,

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Speaker 3: especially given the extent of pro Israel sympathy in Congress

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Speaker 3: in the United States in general.

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Speaker 2: This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gera.

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Speaker 2: This episode was produced by Jessica Beck and Thomas lou

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Speaker 2: with help from Bob Bragg. It was edited by Caitlin Kenny,

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Speaker 2: Greg White, and Nicole Beemster Borr, who's also our executive producer.

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Speaker 2: It was fact checked by Adriana Tapia. It was mixed

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Speaker 2: by Blake Maples. Our senior producer is Naomi Shaven. Our

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Speaker 2: senior editor is Elizabeth Ponso. Sage Bauman is Bloomberg's head

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Speaker 2: be back tomorrow.