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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Podcast.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a seconds.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by the FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host Brendan Glasheen, joined by Sean Zarillo and

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Speaker 1: Billy Ward. That means it's a UFC betting preview. We're

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Speaker 1: breaking down UFC two ninety one this weekend from Delta

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Speaker 1: is it the Delta Arena, Delta Center in Salt Lake City.

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Speaker 1: We've got five fights on the maning card, seven prelimbs.

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Speaker 1: We'll look at underdogs, props and more. We'll finish up

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Speaker 1: with some final bets, some best bets. We'll start with

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Speaker 1: the main event. Dustin Poier is the favorite minus one

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Speaker 1: sixty over at fandle and he opposes Justin Gaichi Poria

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Speaker 1: has actually moved slightly. He's down to minus one fifty

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Speaker 1: two gai Chie plus one twenty four. That remains on

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Speaker 1: the money line. Zarulo, when we break this one down,

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Speaker 1: should be a fascinating card, good good weekend for folks

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Speaker 1: that like to bet UFC. You can catch the prelimbs

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Speaker 1: on ESPN Plus and then the mainstream is on pay

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Speaker 1: per view. Later on Saturday night ten o'clock start assessing

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Speaker 1: the main event Porier and Gaichie. What do you make

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Speaker 1: of it? And then how do you determine how do

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Speaker 1: you want to bet it?

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Speaker 3: Well?

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Speaker 4: I want to mention this start for the whole card

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Speaker 4: because Brendan, you mentioned the card is in Salt Lake City,

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Speaker 4: and the last time we saw the UFC go to Utah,

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Speaker 4: every fighter melted in the third round. And Cardio is

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Speaker 4: going to be huge on this card. We talk about

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Speaker 4: Cardio every single week on this podcast. I don't think

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Speaker 4: it will be bigger than it is this week, particularly

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Speaker 4: in those third round seeing who still has anything left

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Speaker 4: in the gas tank. In terms of the main event specifically,

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Speaker 4: I do like the fight to end inside the distance

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Speaker 4: at minus two thirty. I know it is very juiced up.

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Speaker 4: I projected this line closer to minus three hundred, so

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Speaker 4: seventy five percent applied seventy five percent finished probability roughly

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Speaker 4: for me on either side. These two fought back in

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Speaker 4: twenty eighteen. Dustin Poie finished gai Chi in the fourth

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Speaker 4: round of a fight that he was probably on his

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Speaker 4: way to losing. Take a couple more leg kicks, it

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Speaker 4: might have been over very competitive fight, and you know, really,

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Speaker 4: I think the stylistic breakdown or the technical weapon that

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Speaker 4: will be most important for either fighter is very similar.

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Speaker 4: It's going to be Gatee's l like kicks against Dustin's boxing,

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Speaker 4: and I think the question is how much Gae Chee's

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Speaker 4: boxing has caught up to Dustin's boxing in the six

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Speaker 4: years since they lost five the five years since they

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Speaker 4: lost Fog And I know for a fact that Dustin's

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Speaker 4: like kicks have gotten Bettery Tour Park Connor McGregor with

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Speaker 4: those calf kicks. So I think both fighters have leveled

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Speaker 4: up in the one area where their opponent was seemingly

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Speaker 4: strong or dominating them in the first fight. I think

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Speaker 4: Dustin's two inch reach advantage is going to continue to

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Speaker 4: be a problem for Justin if he's able to get

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Speaker 4: in the pocket. I just think he's still you know,

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Speaker 4: regardless of how much Justin's boxing is caught up, I

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Speaker 4: just think that reach advantage is going to prove the

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Speaker 4: difference when they're both jabbing or you know, standing throwing

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Speaker 4: straight punches. The durability on either side I think has

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Speaker 4: really faded in recent years. Both of these guys known

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Speaker 4: historically for having great cardio, great durability. Both have been

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Speaker 4: hurt numerous times in the recent fights, especially to the body.

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Speaker 4: Both hurt to the body by Charles Olavera. You know,

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Speaker 4: I really don't think these guys are nearly as durable

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Speaker 4: as they were for the first fight. On top of

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Speaker 4: the fact that I mentioned the cardio is going to

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Speaker 4: be a real thing down the stretcher in the late rounds.

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Speaker 4: So I can see a you know, close competitive fight

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Speaker 4: like the first one, where feeling out process for the

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Speaker 4: first round, the h trade rounds rounds two and three,

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Speaker 4: but I would expect that pace to pick up in

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Speaker 4: the middle of the fight, and I think at some

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Speaker 4: point somebody gets hurt and goes down. So I use

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Speaker 4: it as a parlay piece at minus two thirty with

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Speaker 4: the Rigiario de Lima Derrek Lewis fight at minus one

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Speaker 4: fifty to end inside the distance. Both of those fights,

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Speaker 4: so combine that was a parlay of about minus one forty.

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Speaker 4: But as I said, a straight bat up too about

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Speaker 4: minus two thirty on the main event to end inside

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Speaker 4: the distance. I think it's fine considering I've projected it

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Speaker 4: closer minus three hundred. You just might be sweating it

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Speaker 4: for a few rounds.

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Speaker 1: Billy Poitier has been phenomenal as of late nine and

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Speaker 1: two record over the last six years feels like a

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Speaker 1: deserving favorite. Echi is not far off, though, as it

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Speaker 1: pertains to his money line Price You've Got. Billy Ward

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Speaker 1: is the author of our UFC Luck ratings, which you

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Speaker 1: can find over at Action Network. He determines if there's

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Speaker 1: a fighter or a matchup is undervalued or if someone

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Speaker 1: is overvalued. And for this one, Billy, you think this

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Speaker 1: is pretty fairly priced. Can you explain and how you

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Speaker 1: might want.

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Speaker 5: To bet I do?

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Speaker 3: And you know, Sean broke down a lot of it.

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Speaker 3: Very similar fighters. It's just the leg kicks versus the boxing.

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Speaker 3: It's the big separation between them, but both you know,

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Speaker 3: very good output, great strikers, historically, very durable, just really

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Speaker 3: good all around fighters. You know, we haven't mentioned it.

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Speaker 3: This is for the BMF belt, which is an entirely

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Speaker 3: made up thing, but it does make this five rounds

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Speaker 3: and these guys fit that description right. They're out here

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Speaker 3: to put on a show. Very violent fighters, never have

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Speaker 3: a boring fight. Since Gai Che lost to Poier, his

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Speaker 3: only two losses are to Charles Olivera and Habib. And

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Speaker 3: since I don't know the nine to two record you

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Speaker 3: mentioned for Poier that was to Charles Olivera and Tabid,

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Speaker 3: so very similar fighters. I get why Poier is the favorite.

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Speaker 3: You know, he's beaten a little bit better competition, I

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Speaker 3: would say, since they've fought each other. But it should

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Speaker 3: be close, and it's not one that I love betting.

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Speaker 3: You know, if this weren't a main event, I probably

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Speaker 3: wouldn't get to it. The one thing that's tilting me

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Speaker 3: a little bit towards the underdog here is I mean, besides, systemically,

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Speaker 3: if we think two fighters are really close and you're

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Speaker 3: getting plus money on one of them, obviously that's you know,

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Speaker 3: a lean that way. But with this being an elevation,

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Speaker 3: gay Chee trains in Denver or Colorado, I think it's

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Speaker 3: outside of Denver where Poier trains. His home gym is

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Speaker 3: in Louisiana, which is a swamp, and he does his

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Speaker 3: training camps in Boca Raton, Florida, which is basically sea level.

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Speaker 3: So I think the cardio might actually favor Geichie a

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Speaker 3: little bit here, as well as the fact that his

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Speaker 3: leg kicks tend to play dividends later in a fight

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Speaker 3: where Poier is boxing, I think falls off a little.

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Speaker 5: Bit just as Poyer loses some speed and some power.

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Speaker 3: So favorite angle on that is probably gay Chee live,

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Speaker 3: just because if he's building up with those lag kicks

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Speaker 3: but getting hurt, those are going to pay dividends later on.

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Speaker 3: But on a pre fight side, a little bit of

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Speaker 3: a sprinkle on Gaichee money line and just hoping that,

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Speaker 3: you know, maybe Poia has a good round one, but

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Speaker 3: eat some leg kicks, we can get him at plus

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Speaker 3: two hundred or something like that.

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Speaker 4: After that point, last thing I want to mention, I

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Speaker 4: considered betting this fight to end in rounds three, round four,

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Speaker 4: and round five. Those odds were about plus six fifty

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Speaker 4: plus nine hundred and plus eleven hundred respectfully. So it's

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Speaker 4: going to do service structured play a third of a unit,

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Speaker 4: you know, point one five on that round three and

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Speaker 4: then point one in round four and round five. That

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Speaker 4: was the other way I was considering betting this, other

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Speaker 4: than the fight to end the distance, trying to get

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Speaker 4: plus money on the later round props as opposed to

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Speaker 4: laying juice to get the whole fight. But yeah, I

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Speaker 4: agree with Billy's take on the cardio, I think that's

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Speaker 4: a smart thought considering Gaichee does trained at elevation. I think,

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Speaker 4: you know, this fight to me is going to come

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Speaker 4: down to who you think is the better cardio and

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Speaker 4: durability and durability I think is a toss up. But cardio,

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Speaker 4: I think there's reasons why Gayschee might have the advantage.

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Speaker 1: What about on Fandel, I'm seeing either fight or to

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Speaker 1: win in rounds three or four plus three seventy.

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Speaker 4: It's interesting doesn't get the round five angle. And I

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Speaker 4: think there's certainly a potential, given the elevation, that any

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Speaker 4: of the fights on this card are going to end.

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Speaker 4: You know, there are the other fights in the third round,

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Speaker 4: but I think there's a potential for a lot of

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Speaker 4: final round stoppages throughout this card. So don't love not

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Speaker 4: getting the fifth round there to be honest.

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Speaker 1: Okay, moving on favorite underdogs. We have a consensus underdog

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Speaker 1: on the UFC betting preview, Zilla, Why don't you go

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Speaker 1: first and tell us who it is?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Michelle Perera at plus one thirty. Wonder Boy Thompson

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Speaker 4: one of my favorite fighters. I don't like betting against him,

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Speaker 4: but there is an eleven year age gap in this

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Speaker 4: fight and a huge athleticism differential. As we typically mention

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Speaker 4: when there's a big age gap, the younger fighter wins

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Speaker 4: about ten percent more often than the betting market tells

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Speaker 4: you their fair odds are, and licking that eleven year

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Speaker 4: age gap. In UFC history, the younger fighters won seventy

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Speaker 4: one percent of the time compared to average odds of

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Speaker 4: minus one fifty eight sixty one percent implied, so a

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Speaker 4: ten percent edge over the betting market. Pere also has

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Speaker 4: the grappling upside, the power advantage, and he's just generally bigger.

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Speaker 4: He's very big for the one hundred and seventy pound division,

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Speaker 4: cuts a lot of weight to make wealth their way well.

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Speaker 4: WonderBoy the clear striking advantage, also a two inch reach advantage.

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Speaker 5: But what I do like about Pereira.

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Speaker 4: Relative to his other opponents is the unpredictable nature of

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Speaker 4: his style. We've seen WonderBoy knocked out by a flying knee.

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Speaker 4: He's not the kind of guy who's going to charge

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Speaker 4: at him with typical boxing or karate or you know,

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Speaker 4: any sort of orthodox striking. Peerah is very atypical in

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Speaker 4: how he approaches the striking. But on top of that,

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Speaker 4: I do think he has substantial grappling upside here, the

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Speaker 4: ability to land takedowns, the ability to smother Wonder Boy

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Speaker 4: on the mat up against the cage, you know, the

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Speaker 4: age differential, of the athleticism, the explosiveness is all on

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Speaker 4: Pereira's side. On top of the fact, as I said,

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Speaker 4: the power advantage, and just looking at Wonder boys last

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Speaker 4: fight against Kevin Holland, he was hurt on the feet,

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Speaker 4: taken down by a striker and let back up by Holland.

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Speaker 4: If he had just been dominated on the mat by

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Speaker 4: Kevin Holland, who's a striker in that fight, and it

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Speaker 4: very much seemed like Holland could have done that had

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Speaker 4: he wanted to. I don't think you're getting Perra plus

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Speaker 4: money here. So all of the grappling upside, the striking,

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Speaker 4: finishing upside probably too on Pereira's side. I just think

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Speaker 4: there's a lot of reasons for him to check the

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Speaker 4: box as an underdog. So like him down about plus

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Speaker 4: one fifteen made this fight closer to it. Pick them,

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Speaker 4: but yeah, very obvious underdog played for me and I'm

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Speaker 4: sure for Billy as well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Billy since had some strong competition Gilbert Burns Bala Muhammad.

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Speaker 1: But you're in the same boat as Zarillo on Pereira

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Speaker 1: prices coming down at plus one thirty now, as Zarrillo mentioned,

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Speaker 1: so you're not getting a number that you could have

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Speaker 1: had earlier in the week. So how are you feeling

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Speaker 1: about Pereira today?

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Speaker 5: Still okay with a plus one thirty.

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Speaker 3: This is what I've been on all week, I tweeted

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Speaker 3: on Monday, this was my know CLV play of the week.

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Speaker 3: When he was plus one forty five or so, I said,

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Speaker 3: I don't think we'll get better than plus one thirty

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Speaker 3: come fight time, which turned out to be the case.

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Speaker 5: You know.

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Speaker 3: I did a full breakdown of this one at Action Network.

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Speaker 3: The one thing that stuck out other than all of

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Speaker 3: the very good points that Zerilla mentioned is Peya's style

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Speaker 3: of kind of like that in your face pressure doing

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Speaker 3: a lot of things is just kryptonite for these karate guys.

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Speaker 3: We talked about it recently with Muslim Salakov, which was

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Speaker 3: like my favorite bet of the past many years. We

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Speaker 3: faded him against a guy who stayed in his face

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Speaker 3: and threw a lot of volume. These karate guys like

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Speaker 3: to sit back, they kind of pick you off when

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Speaker 3: you throw a one punch with perfect counters, or they

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Speaker 3: can set up there, you know, in Thompson's case, alongside kicks,

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Speaker 3: switch kicks, all kinds of crazy stuff.

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Speaker 5: He can't do any of that with Pehey in his face.

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Speaker 5: I'm a little bit.

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Speaker 3: Nervous because sometimes Pea falls in the trap of kind

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Speaker 3: of keeping his back to the fence, trying to set

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Speaker 3: up his own jumping, flipping, spinning, whatever attacks. But we've

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Speaker 3: seen him do a much better job in recent fights

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Speaker 3: of fighting more from an orthodox style, hurting you with

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Speaker 3: punches and then going to the crazy stuff rather than

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Speaker 3: making his whole game plan to you know, do a

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Speaker 3: backflip off the cage and knee in the head on

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Speaker 3: the way by or whatever he.

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Speaker 5: Used to do.

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Speaker 3: So a little bit worried about that Varianx of it,

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Speaker 3: but Pea certainly has the tools to beat him, and

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Speaker 3: then again all the grappling upside. If he takes him down,

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Speaker 3: I think he'll just maul him on the ground as well.

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Speaker 3: So even if we don't go to the grappling, I'd

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Speaker 3: say this is about a pick him.

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Speaker 5: When you throw that in there, I would make pay

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Speaker 5: in a favorite.

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Speaker 1: Hey on to do the fight of the night. Got

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Speaker 1: John Blovich. He's the slight favorite over Alex Pereira Blaovich

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Speaker 1: right now over at FanDuel minus one twenty two Prayerra

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Speaker 1: minus one oh four, So Lalovich is the favorite for

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Speaker 1: this one. Zarrillo, This one has a lot of steam

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Speaker 1: as well heading into Salt Lake City. If the cardio

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Speaker 1: as an impact for this one too, please share and

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Speaker 1: assess it. How would you like to bet it?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, cardio could be interesting, both fighters in their late

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Speaker 4: forties light heavyweights. I think it might be more beneficial

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Speaker 4: for Perreira just because he's moving up here from one

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Speaker 4: to eighty five to two o five, so not having

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Speaker 4: to cut that weight might help his gas tank, might

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Speaker 4: help his durability in general. Jan is forty years old.

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Speaker 4: He's probably the lesser athlete. He's seemingly regressed in his

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Speaker 4: recent fights. But Perreira was also knocked out badly in April,

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Speaker 4: and this is a pretty quick return after that knockout

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Speaker 4: against Atasana just a few months off, so don't necessarily

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Speaker 4: know how that chan is going to hold up going

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Speaker 4: from one eighty five to two oh five a few

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Speaker 4: months removed from a bad knockout and now facing a

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Speaker 4: guy who arguably hits harder with legendary Polish power in

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Speaker 4: Yon Bokovich, and Jon seemingly has the grappling advantage in

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Speaker 4: this fight too, which you would think would make him

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Speaker 4: the favorite. But I have some thoughts about Jan's grappling

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Speaker 4: upside in this fight. First, we've only ever really seen

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Speaker 4: him consistently pursue takedowns against Israel at Asnya, who's a

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Speaker 4: true middleweight smaller than Pereira. Pereer is going to be

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Speaker 4: bigger than Behovich, by the way, even though he's moving

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Speaker 4: up two inches taller, one inch reach advantage, so he

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Speaker 4: should be the bigger man. So even though Perera is

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Speaker 4: not as good of a defensive grappler as out of Sonya,

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Speaker 4: he's going to have a strength advantage. Also, that fight

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Speaker 4: with Bohovich and Autasnya happened in the Apex. This is

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Speaker 4: happening in the bigger cage, So Behovic not gonna be

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Speaker 4: able to get those takedowns as easily as he was

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Speaker 4: in out of Sonya, probably just because the space is

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Speaker 4: much bigger. It's not as confined.

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Speaker 1: In terms of the.

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Speaker 4: Kickboxing I think Jan could be competitive. He was competitive

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Speaker 4: with aut Asnya, but I still would give Pereerra the advantage.

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Speaker 4: And Perera's volume actually surprised me with how much he

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Speaker 4: was throwing at middleweight. You're going to move him up

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Speaker 4: to vision to light heavyweight, give him more cardio, a

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Speaker 4: little bit more comfort. I think he's going to be

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Speaker 4: trucking volume at a very high clip. Yan is gonna

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Speaker 4: be very susceptible to getting hit by that left hook.

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Speaker 4: He's gotten clipped by left hooks in the past. In

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Speaker 4: terms of chin, I don't really know where to go

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Speaker 4: because again it's a forty year old going against the

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Speaker 4: guy who's younger but was knocked out very recently. So

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Speaker 4: I see reasons why this is lined as a pick them.

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Speaker 4: I should also mention too, Yan's last fight was a

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Speaker 4: title fight draw and Dana White basically threw him in

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Speaker 4: Malgama anklaiav like out of this title picture. Now the

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Speaker 4: light heavy White title pictures opened back up with Jamal

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Speaker 4: Hill's injury, but it kind of seems like Yan needs

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Speaker 4: to have an exciting fight to get back on the

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Speaker 4: good side of the matchmakers. So I don't know how

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Speaker 4: much he's going to try to grapple here, and even

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Speaker 4: if he does, as I said, with the bigger cage

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Speaker 4: per size, I don't really know how much his success

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Speaker 4: he's gonna have doing it either. So I actually see

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Speaker 4: more of a kickboxing match playing out, and obviously would

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Speaker 4: after favorite Poeton in that matchup. So give me Alex

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Speaker 4: Peira two about minus one ten. And I also like

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Speaker 4: his knockout odds, his itd odds as well. I'll probably

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Speaker 4: stick those in a round robins though.

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Speaker 1: Hey Billy, Yeah, Pereira is picking up some steam here.

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Speaker 1: He's now minus one oh five, so that that line

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Speaker 1: is crunching closer together. Blahovich is minus one fifteen. Pereira

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Speaker 1: slightly undervalued. Why might you want to take his side?

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Speaker 1: Or is there another angle?

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Speaker 5: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: You know, ZERI I'm mostly with Sarrilo. Just a couple

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Speaker 3: of things I wanted to add on to that one.

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Speaker 3: The kind of takedowns that Blahovich was getting on Adasannya.

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Speaker 3: They weren't technical, great wrestling where he was chained wrestling,

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Speaker 3: you know. It wasn't switching from a single leg to

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Speaker 3: a high crotch and then ducking under and taking his back.

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Speaker 3: He was just I'm so much bigger and stronger than you,

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Speaker 3: I'm going to just kind.

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Speaker 5: Of pull you over. That's not going to work on Peya.

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Speaker 3: As Zerrilla pointed out, pay is definitely taller and longer,

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Speaker 3: might end up being physically stronger here, especially against.

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Speaker 5: A forty year old Blahovich.

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Speaker 3: I also disagree with Sean a little bit, even though

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Speaker 3: I'm arriving at the same point that Blehovich is going

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Speaker 3: to be competitive in the kickbox thing. He was competitive

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Speaker 3: with aut Asania in the kickboxing because Adasanya was so

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Speaker 3: worried about takedowns, not because he was just out pointing

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Speaker 3: him in a true kickboxing match. I don't think Bejay

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Speaker 3: is going to be as worried. The big cage is

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Speaker 3: a big factor of that, and then the cardio. You know,

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Speaker 3: you wouldn't say either of these guys have great cardio necessarily,

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Speaker 3: but Peya did knock out out Asanya in the fifth

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Speaker 3: round of their fight, which is fairly rare. The other thing,

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Speaker 3: I always bring this up if one guy has to

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Speaker 3: wrestle and one guy does not to win the fight,

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Speaker 3: which is probably the case here. That takes a lot

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Speaker 3: more cardio than Pea just bouncing around on the outside

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Speaker 3: landing shots. So the way I see this one going

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Speaker 3: is Blahovic maybe has some early success with takedowns first round,

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Speaker 3: but he's got to work real hard for it, and

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Speaker 3: Peya eventually finds his way back to his feet, and

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Speaker 3: then I think it's all Pahea after that. So I

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Speaker 3: originally put in the sheet Peya, either by knockout or

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Speaker 3: by decision, you were getting plus one ten. Fandel has

359
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Speaker 3: now made that the exact same as his money line odds.

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Speaker 3: They're saying there is a zero percent chance of a submission,

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Speaker 3: which is hard.

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Speaker 5: To disagree with though, right Like, he's a.

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Speaker 3: Great kickboxer, huge grappling deficit, so just take the money

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Speaker 3: line minus one oh five. With those two coming together,

365
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Speaker 3: could also see up Hey a live angle after the

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Speaker 3: first round if Yon has some success with the grappling.

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Speaker 3: But I'm more worried about Yan not having that success

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Speaker 3: in the first place in the line going the other

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Speaker 3: way than I am worried about but Hey getting stopped early.

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Speaker 5: So money line's fine.

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Speaker 3: If you want to get a little bit greedy, you

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Speaker 3: could wait for a live angle, but I'm not sure

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Speaker 3: it'll work out that way.

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Speaker 1: All right, Yon former light heavyweights Zerrilla mentioned and you

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Speaker 1: got Pereira, the former middleweight title holder. That's the comine

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Speaker 1: should be good. That one's got a little uh feels

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Speaker 1: a little bit closer than poor Ya and Gechee, but

378
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Speaker 1: not far off prompt market. Where are we looking this week?

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Speaker 1: Zerillo for Salt Lake City?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Billy and I are aligned here as well, like

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Speaker 4: you're on the underdog as we're going to Priscilla Cashuerra

382
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Speaker 4: inside the essence at plus four fifty. Projected this line

383
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Speaker 4: for me closer to about plus three sixty, So where

384
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Speaker 4: it's at, I think is a nice edge. I also

385
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Speaker 4: like her money line a little bit here, projected that

386
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Speaker 4: closer to plus two hundred could see her winning decision.

387
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Speaker 4: But seven or twelve wins inside of her career inside

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Speaker 4: the distance, and she has a pretty big grappling deficiency

389
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Speaker 4: in this fight against Miranda Maverick, who should be able

390
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Speaker 4: to land takedowns potentially control her if not get a submission.

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Speaker 4: I'm interested in the fight inside the distance overall, but

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Speaker 4: I think Cashuera has more finishing upside. I think Maverick

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Speaker 4: is capable of controlling her on the mat and not

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Speaker 4: actually finishing the fight.

395
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Speaker 5: So of the two.

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Speaker 4: If I'm choosing their itd odds, I'm certainly going with

397
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Speaker 4: Cashauwera projective finishes about sixty five percent of her wing condition.

398
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Speaker 4: As I said, I'm also going to consider betting her

399
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Speaker 4: money line as well. There's a chance that Maverick lands

400
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Speaker 4: takedowns but doesn't do enough with them, and Cashuer is

401
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Speaker 4: able to steal the fight in the moments where she's

402
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Speaker 4: on the feet in each round. So Cashuer inside the

403
00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:46,080
Speaker 4: distance plus four to fifty. But also taking a look

404
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Speaker 4: at that money line sitting at around plus two thirty.

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Speaker 1: Five consensus prop consensus underdog, consensus prop Billy, what can

406
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Speaker 1: you add?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, just one thing that Zarrella didn't mention. Random Maverick

408
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Speaker 3: has taken this on somewhat short notice. I think she

409
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Speaker 3: fought like a month ago against Jasmine, just suit of vicious,

410
00:19:02,320 --> 00:19:03,360
Speaker 3: normally not a big deal.

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Speaker 5: You know. Maybe you say, ah, she stayed in shape.

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Speaker 3: We don't know that, because she might have had a

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Speaker 3: week or two often then got the call for this one.

414
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Speaker 3: But given the altitude, I think that's a bigger deal

415
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Speaker 3: here than it normally would be. Like, I'm not fighting

416
00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:16,359
Speaker 3: people at four thousand feet above sea level without a

417
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Speaker 3: full training camp if I can avoid it. Only reason

418
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Speaker 3: I'm saying inside the distance and Durell didn't mention this,

419
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Speaker 3: but I think probably agrees is I could see Ketchawaar

420
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Speaker 3: catching Maverick and Maverick kind of panic wrestling or taking

421
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Speaker 3: a bad shot and then finding our way into a submission,

422
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Speaker 3: and the lines are fairly close. I think it's only

423
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Speaker 3: plus five hundred I knockout only, so yeah, oh, sacrifice

424
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Speaker 3: that little bit of extra odds just to get the

425
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Speaker 3: inside the distance and in case we get a panic submission.

426
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Speaker 3: But other than that, yeah, Drella nailed it. We're in

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Speaker 3: the same same page here.

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Speaker 4: I mean, we got the Paul Craig ground upon t

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Speaker 4: KL last week. Mma is a weird start man. Sometimes

430
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Speaker 4: the finish like the you know, the fighter who never

431
00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:53,880
Speaker 4: has a submission on the record, they get a club

432
00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:56,959
Speaker 4: and sub or it just that five or ten percent outcome.

433
00:19:57,080 --> 00:19:59,520
Speaker 4: Sometimes it just it comes into play when you never

434
00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:02,520
Speaker 4: expect it too. So if Pereira goes out and subsy

435
00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:04,560
Speaker 4: on Bohovic, I mean, I'm not gonna be shocked. He's

436
00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:07,600
Speaker 4: been working extensively with Glover to share a you know,

437
00:20:07,640 --> 00:20:10,160
Speaker 4: maybe Glover, you know, taught him some cool front choke

438
00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:12,800
Speaker 4: that he's gonna slap on him if Yon's trying to

439
00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:14,840
Speaker 4: wrest him against the cage. So yeah, I can see

440
00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:17,440
Speaker 4: cash or getting a submission. Just take the shorter price.

441
00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:19,879
Speaker 4: That is gonna, you know, not make you feel awful

442
00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:21,320
Speaker 4: if the other outcome happens.

443
00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:23,880
Speaker 1: Both fights to choose from, and they've got the same

444
00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:27,520
Speaker 1: dog and the same prop. That's that's quite fascinating and

445
00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:30,200
Speaker 1: quite ironic. I don't know if we're gonna have the

446
00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:32,800
Speaker 1: same for our final bet best bet before we wrap

447
00:20:32,840 --> 00:20:35,600
Speaker 1: it up. You FC two ninety one Zarrillo. When you're

448
00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:37,720
Speaker 1: looking around the board, what jumps out?

449
00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:41,359
Speaker 4: Yeah, Tony Ferguson and Bobby Green fight and inside the

450
00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:43,640
Speaker 4: distance it is a pick them price at minus one ten.

451
00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:46,159
Speaker 4: I projected this at minus one twenty two. It's my

452
00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:49,040
Speaker 4: favorite bet on the card. It's our editor Dan Stupps

453
00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:51,280
Speaker 4: favorite bet on the card, which I like to see too.

454
00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:54,000
Speaker 4: He just claimed that in our slack channel where we

455
00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:56,160
Speaker 4: determine who's going to write up what best bet, because

456
00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:57,960
Speaker 4: you seem to have a bunch of overlap of times.

457
00:20:58,760 --> 00:21:01,560
Speaker 4: But in terms of this fight, both guys in their

458
00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:03,680
Speaker 4: late thirties, both have been finished within the past twelve

459
00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:08,480
Speaker 4: or thirteen months pretty badly. But Tony, specifically Tony Ferguson

460
00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:11,119
Speaker 4: thirty nine years old, on a five fight losing streak.

461
00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:14,119
Speaker 4: Typically guys would get cut on a five fight losing strike,

462
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:16,600
Speaker 4: even a three fight losing streak. In the UFC. He's

463
00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:19,560
Speaker 4: been finished in three of those losses, and his athleticism

464
00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:24,000
Speaker 4: is just noticeably shot. So as I said losses last

465
00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:27,000
Speaker 4: five fights, the two where he didn't lose by finish

466
00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:31,320
Speaker 4: were against Sprinil dari Usch and Charles Olavera. Darry Yusch

467
00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:36,240
Speaker 4: seemingly snapped his leg, Tony didn't tap, Charles seemingly snapped

468
00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:41,280
Speaker 4: his armor, Ebo. Tony didn't tap. Now obviously not tapping

469
00:21:42,080 --> 00:21:44,240
Speaker 4: great side of his toughness, but at the same time,

470
00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:49,440
Speaker 4: his athleticism has just disappeared since those fights, those submissions

471
00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:51,639
Speaker 4: that he did not tap to. He does his little

472
00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:54,600
Speaker 4: pre fight routine. You know where he's moving as Bruce

473
00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:57,240
Speaker 4: Buffer is doing the introductions. People have cut up a

474
00:21:57,280 --> 00:21:59,919
Speaker 4: video comparing his first fight in the UFC to the

475
00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:03,600
Speaker 4: fight against Diaz last out and it just is not

476
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:06,840
Speaker 4: the same person. This guy could barely move. Bobby Green

477
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:10,840
Speaker 4: came back after his knockout looked actually pretty good. In

478
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:13,520
Speaker 4: a no contest against Jared Gordon, there was a head

479
00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:16,119
Speaker 4: clash leading to a knockout sequence. It was overturned to

480
00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:18,000
Speaker 4: a no contest, but I did like to see him

481
00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:22,159
Speaker 4: coming back athletically, looking sharp, looking fast with his hands

482
00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:25,640
Speaker 4: in that fight against Gordon. What's interesting about this fight

483
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:28,000
Speaker 4: against Ferguson. To me, there's a four inch reach of

484
00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:31,280
Speaker 4: discrepancy in the boxing, which means that Green actually needs

485
00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:34,040
Speaker 4: to get into the pocket if he wants to land strikes.

486
00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:36,320
Speaker 4: He's going to have to be in Tony's face if

487
00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:39,160
Speaker 4: he's going to have success here. And I think given

488
00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:42,720
Speaker 4: the handspeed differential, the athleticism differential, I think Bobby is

489
00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:46,280
Speaker 4: just going to use Tony's head like a ping pong ball.

490
00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:48,680
Speaker 4: He's going to smash him over and over again. It's

491
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:50,760
Speaker 4: not going to be any individual shot that puts him down.

492
00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:54,640
Speaker 4: But I think the accumulation of damage, the attritional damage,

493
00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:58,040
Speaker 4: repeated blows from inside the pocket, is eventually going to

494
00:22:58,040 --> 00:23:01,680
Speaker 4: put Tony away. So don't love that Bobby was knocked out,

495
00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:03,520
Speaker 4: as I said, very badly in the past twelve or

496
00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:05,320
Speaker 4: thirteen months. That's why I'm taking the fight to end

497
00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:07,960
Speaker 4: inside the distance at minus one ten as opposed to

498
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:10,760
Speaker 4: betting Bobby to win inside the distance at not too

499
00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:12,960
Speaker 4: much of a better price. But yeah, I like this

500
00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:15,280
Speaker 4: here with two guys in their late thirties, should be

501
00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:19,040
Speaker 4: a high paced affair, and just that reached differential with

502
00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:21,480
Speaker 4: the way Bobby fights. He really needs to get close

503
00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:24,159
Speaker 4: to Tony to land, So that's going to create a

504
00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:26,000
Speaker 4: foam booth fight. And I think seventy falls.

505
00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:28,479
Speaker 1: You happen to find that ping pong ball, you can

506
00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:31,480
Speaker 1: give it to our director of audio, Matt Mitchell. You

507
00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:33,959
Speaker 1: were in desperate need of ping pong balls going back

508
00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:38,280
Speaker 1: now a couple of weeks ago inside Joe couldn't help myself.

509
00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:41,280
Speaker 1: You're welcome, Matt Mitchell, Billy best bet.

510
00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 3: Before we wrap it up, Yeah, before I get to mind,

511
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:47,359
Speaker 3: just one last point on Tony Ferguson. Also, like five

512
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:50,000
Speaker 3: ish weeks ago had a bad dui where he rolled

513
00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:52,600
Speaker 3: his car over and like landed on top of another car,

514
00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:56,919
Speaker 3: which one just the physical result of that probably isn't great, right, Like,

515
00:23:57,000 --> 00:23:59,960
Speaker 3: I'm sure he got hurt in that sequence. Also told us,

516
00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:01,760
Speaker 3: you know, four or five weeks out from a fight.

517
00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:04,840
Speaker 3: He was still drinking and going out and partying and

518
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:07,800
Speaker 3: not you know, training and living the lifestyle that we'd

519
00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:10,320
Speaker 3: like to see from our fighters early. So one more

520
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:13,400
Speaker 3: factor in there. But as far as mine, I'm looking

521
00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:16,560
Speaker 3: at the Michael Kiessa versus Kevin Holland fight. There's another

522
00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 3: fight I did a breakdown of. I'm fairly confident my read.

523
00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:19,920
Speaker 5: On the fight.

524
00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:21,639
Speaker 3: I'm just not sure the best way to bet it

525
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:24,400
Speaker 3: because we have a guy in Kevin Holland very long

526
00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:27,199
Speaker 3: you know, just fought Steven WonderBoy Thompson is zerally alluded

527
00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:30,879
Speaker 3: to when we were talking about Thompson. Not a great grappler,

528
00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:34,240
Speaker 3: but very good defensively with his submissions. He can't really wrestle,

529
00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:37,280
Speaker 3: not great and not great in transitions, but he has

530
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:38,920
Speaker 3: a black belt, so he's probably not going to get

531
00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:42,600
Speaker 3: tapped against Michael Kissa, whose only career loss by knockout

532
00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:43,320
Speaker 3: was a cut.

533
00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:44,960
Speaker 5: Like he's never actually been knocked out.

534
00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:48,040
Speaker 3: So what I see happening here is Kisa, who's a

535
00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 3: great wrestler grappler, probably gets some takedowns, probably ends up

536
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:54,399
Speaker 3: on top, probably doesn't finish him when he's there. You know,

537
00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:56,800
Speaker 3: Holland might tag him a little bit before that happens,

538
00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:58,680
Speaker 3: but I think Kiessa has the durability to not.

539
00:24:58,640 --> 00:24:59,360
Speaker 5: Get knocked out.

540
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:01,800
Speaker 3: And we're getting plus one fifty on this one to

541
00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:03,520
Speaker 3: go over two and a half rounds, So that's that's

542
00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:06,400
Speaker 3: my first of the two best bets. I also leaning

543
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:09,440
Speaker 3: towards the Kiasa side here, just because if he's on top,

544
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:11,880
Speaker 3: if he's controlling the positions, he's not a guy who

545
00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:12,960
Speaker 3: just hangs out and guard.

546
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 5: I worry a little bit that he's not going to.

547
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:17,639
Speaker 3: Do enough damage, but he usually passes to dominant positions,

548
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:20,199
Speaker 3: which I think the judging is sophisticated enough now to

549
00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:22,880
Speaker 3: know that, you know, riding out around from side controller

550
00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:25,880
Speaker 3: mount is fundamentally different than being in a guy's guard.

551
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:28,840
Speaker 3: I think most of our judges know that now. I'm

552
00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:30,960
Speaker 3: not super confident in saying that it depends on who's

553
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:34,719
Speaker 3: scoring this fight, So Michael Kiyasa round three or decision

554
00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:36,400
Speaker 3: at plus two to fifty. Kind of like that one

555
00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:38,720
Speaker 3: for a little bit longer odds. But the safer pick,

556
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:40,840
Speaker 3: the one I feel a little bit better about, is

557
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:42,800
Speaker 3: over two and a half rounds at plus one fifty,

558
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:45,240
Speaker 3: just because both guys are so good at defending what

559
00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 3: the other one's good at offensively. I'm not sure how

560
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:49,280
Speaker 3: we see a finish before that?

561
00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:52,640
Speaker 1: All right, fellas good stuff. You FC two ninety one

562
00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 1: underway on Saturday night. You can catch the prelimbs on

563
00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 1: ESPN Plus and then also on ESPN Plus and pay

564
00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:05,600
Speaker 1: per view the main card featuring five fights. If you

565
00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 1: are looking for our faces, which this podcast does have

566
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:13,000
Speaker 1: video form, we have the video version of this podcast,

567
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:16,080
Speaker 1: The Way In coming up at three point thirty Eastern

568
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:19,400
Speaker 1: on Friday, July twenty eighth. It will break all things down.

569
00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:20,800
Speaker 1: So if you listen to this and you had a chance,

570
00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:23,560
Speaker 1: or if you didn't, sorry, plug in the Way In

571
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:26,119
Speaker 1: show which is coming up. Our friends at FanDuel also

572
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:29,840
Speaker 1: our presenting sponsor for Billy Ward and Shonzrello Brendan Lashen,

573
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:32,800
Speaker 1: thanks for listening to this UFC betting preview here on

574
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast presented by Fandel. If people to

575
00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:38,399
Speaker 1: talk to you again next week, Good luck, have a

576
00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 1: great week.

577
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:38,960
Speaker 3: Bend.

578
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:47,000
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

579
00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:49,800
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580
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