WEBVTT - Mike Lyons Talks to A&G

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<v Speaker 1>The Armstrong and Getty show. The potential for escalation is

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<v Speaker 1>still very powerful on the Russian side. I had a

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<v Speaker 1>conversation with a couple of European differmass this weekend. There

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<v Speaker 1>are real concerns that they use one and possibly two

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<v Speaker 1>tactical nuclear weapons in the course of the next couple

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<v Speaker 1>of weeks within Ukraine, specifically targeted at those military supply lies,

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<v Speaker 1>and part of the reason he'd be willing to go there.

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<v Speaker 1>According to The New York Times in their article yesterday,

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<v Speaker 1>some military institute that studies these sorts of things said,

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<v Speaker 1>we're at a bloody stalemate. He's rue his country is

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<v Speaker 1>ruined financially and it is not coming back as long

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<v Speaker 1>as he's the leader of it. Not a chance. So

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<v Speaker 1>he's backed into a corner. He is the wounded animal

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<v Speaker 1>in a corner. Let's discuss with Major Mike Lions, retired

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<v Speaker 1>from the United States Military, where he served with distinction.

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<v Speaker 1>Respected analyst for a number of broadcast and cable networks. Mike,

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<v Speaker 1>how are you, sir? Taken morning? Guys, great to be

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<v Speaker 1>back tour. I think, hey, before we get to the

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<v Speaker 1>question of tactical nukes, can you describe for us what

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<v Speaker 1>you see as the situation in Ukraine, I mean the

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<v Speaker 1>it seems to be an all out barbaric slaughter the

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<v Speaker 1>likes of which we haven't seen in many many generations,

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<v Speaker 1>have no question, and the Ukraine military has now resorted

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<v Speaker 1>to guerrilla tactics. Um. The days of maneuver are over.

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<v Speaker 1>The Russians are digging their tanks in and defensive positions,

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<v Speaker 1>what it's called the hasty defense. Um. The Ukraine military

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<v Speaker 1>is deploying small units of eight to ten individuals. They're

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<v Speaker 1>loaded with javelins and stingers and all kinds of things

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<v Speaker 1>and creating havoc in guerrilla warfare style. Um, it's completely

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<v Speaker 1>a stalemate on the ground. Conventionally, it just goes to

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<v Speaker 1>show you that, you know, the military is and extension

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<v Speaker 1>of foreign policy looking to accomplish aims that diplomacy couldn't.

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<v Speaker 1>But at this point it doesn't look like that's happening,

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<v Speaker 1>and so there's not much more I don't think the

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<v Speaker 1>military to do on the ground conventionally just happens what

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<v Speaker 1>comes from the air and what the strategic weapons are

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<v Speaker 1>going to do. And it's going to continue to be

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<v Speaker 1>a pounding situation right now. I think the Ukraine military

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<v Speaker 1>is going to go after artillery units, um, those local

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<v Speaker 1>units that can affect the situation, but they don't have

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of say in what comes from the sky.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's what I was gonna ask, is there anything

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<v Speaker 1>they can do about those missiles that come in and

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<v Speaker 1>take out the schools or apartment buildings or a mall

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<v Speaker 1>today in Keith? Is there any weapon that we can

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<v Speaker 1>give them or anything to do anything about that. So

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<v Speaker 1>they're trying. There's that's where those Essay three hundreds or

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<v Speaker 1>the Patriot missiles can do that. And and it's there

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<v Speaker 1>they're deploying the hypersonic missiles, which are much more difficult

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<v Speaker 1>for us to intercept them. But it's feels very difficult

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<v Speaker 1>to shoot a missile out of the sky. Um, it's

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<v Speaker 1>kind of hitting the bullet that's going very fast, and

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<v Speaker 1>those hypersonic missiles go expused out, So it's it's very

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<v Speaker 1>difficult to do that. Now, the question is it's they

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<v Speaker 1>have some Essay three hundreds there they have been deployed.

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<v Speaker 1>It's the reason why the airspace is contested over Ukraine. However,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know how we're going to get more in

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<v Speaker 1>and those they just don't. You just can't roll them

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<v Speaker 1>across the border. And all those systems also come with

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<v Speaker 1>radar equipment and fire direction centers and crews, and they

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<v Speaker 1>have to be deployed as well. The worst possible thing

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<v Speaker 1>happens is if the Ukraine military gets some of this equipment,

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<v Speaker 1>like let's say the US Patriot missile battery for example,

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<v Speaker 1>and not sure how it goes, they could potentially shoot

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<v Speaker 1>a Ukraine aircraft out of the sky. So it is

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<v Speaker 1>um these are strategic, challenging, crew served weapons that are

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<v Speaker 1>just not easy to get into country right now. So

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<v Speaker 1>on the clip that we played just a little bit ago,

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<v Speaker 1>the idea of Putin using one to two tactical nukes

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<v Speaker 1>over the next couple of weeks. What the heck is

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<v Speaker 1>a tactical nuke? What would it do if he used one?

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<v Speaker 1>And what do you think the reaction of NATO or

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<v Speaker 1>the United States would be. So tactical nuke is defined

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<v Speaker 1>by delivery mechanism, and in this case it would be

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<v Speaker 1>likely artillery round um that is approximately anywhere from twenty

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<v Speaker 1>miles away and it has a low kiloton yieldage that

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<v Speaker 1>that doesn't replicate anything that we saw, for example in

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<v Speaker 1>Hiroshima or or or the like. But it could cause

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<v Speaker 1>enough damage where it um you know, it multiplies the

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<v Speaker 1>impact of a normal artillery battery, so uh. Plus it

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<v Speaker 1>leads radiation, It leads that there's a you know, the

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<v Speaker 1>cloud that goes with it. There, there's it is a

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<v Speaker 1>high bank for your buck type weapons system. We have

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<v Speaker 1>tactical nukes on our side as well. Um, we deploy

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<v Speaker 1>them as something I was in charge of when I

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<v Speaker 1>was in the military, um full time, and it they're

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<v Speaker 1>highly effective and they're used in most cases in the

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<v Speaker 1>defense to to kind of stop an enemy from coming

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<v Speaker 1>through something. Now to use them offensively is um something

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<v Speaker 1>that we don't we would do doctrinally. But if they're

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<v Speaker 1>going to do it, if all they'll do is cause

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<v Speaker 1>tremendous destruction, because any sing within you know, let's say

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<v Speaker 1>five square miles, six square miles, maybe even ten square

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<v Speaker 1>miles will be completely obliterated. Really, anything within ten square

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<v Speaker 1>miles would be completely obliterated. Wow. Well, it certainly seems

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<v Speaker 1>to us that Putin has shown zero hesitation to slaughter

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<v Speaker 1>civilian populations. Are we just being naive about the way

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<v Speaker 1>most warfare unfolds or is this particularly callous. I think

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<v Speaker 1>this is warfare, and this is just something we haven't

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<v Speaker 1>seen since World War Two because the world has been

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<v Speaker 1>peaceful since then and m and in some ways it's

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<v Speaker 1>still happening only on a regional scale. It's not we

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<v Speaker 1>don't see millions of people killed yet at this point,

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<v Speaker 1>I know, I'm trying to keep this in perspective, but

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<v Speaker 1>Russia is a country that lost twenty million people during

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<v Speaker 1>World War two, and and so we just we're not

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<v Speaker 1>used to it. We're not used to seeing it. And

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<v Speaker 1>then it's unfolding on television every night, it's unfolding in

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<v Speaker 1>TikTok videos, that's unfolding out there. Uh. And it's obviously

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<v Speaker 1>very personalized to a lot of us. But this is

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<v Speaker 1>the competive, the capabilities that these sides have have and

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<v Speaker 1>they can do but I don't. There's nothing, I'm not

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<v Speaker 1>sure still what we could do to stop it on

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<v Speaker 1>the other side right now as well. Um, we can't

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<v Speaker 1>find Latimer Prutin, we can't bomb him. That there's an

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<v Speaker 1>expression about you know, bombing for example. You can vombit,

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<v Speaker 1>you can do everything you want, but it's still at

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<v Speaker 1>some point you have to hold it and Russia is

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<v Speaker 1>not going to be able to proving to be holding

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<v Speaker 1>the ground in Ukraine that they currently have. So back

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<v Speaker 1>to the tactical nukes thing. The other question I had

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<v Speaker 1>was what do you think the reaction would be by

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<v Speaker 1>NATO if he if he crossed that line into using nukes.

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<v Speaker 1>I still don't think that's the red line. The red

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<v Speaker 1>line remains the border. The red lines the border if

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<v Speaker 1>if he decides so. I think he's concerned about by accident,

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<v Speaker 1>shooting a cruise missile over across the border into those

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<v Speaker 1>supply lines into Poland, into Romania. I think that is

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<v Speaker 1>the that's the red line. But inside of the sandbox

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<v Speaker 1>of Ukraine right now is as harsh as it sounds.

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<v Speaker 1>Um NATOS still will not respond because what what's the response?

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<v Speaker 1>There's no there's nothing we can do that will deter

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<v Speaker 1>him from doing that again, and it could also cause

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<v Speaker 1>him to fire that same nuclear weapon across the border.

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<v Speaker 1>Then then Dendom, what do you do if he decides

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<v Speaker 1>to go after Poland, decides to go after Romani with

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<v Speaker 1>a larger go to Warsaw. I mean, could you imagine

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<v Speaker 1>fire nuclear weapon at Warsaw. That's that's on the table. Yikes.

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<v Speaker 1>Major my clients on the line, Mike, my final question anyway. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>and I realized this is a little outside your your

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<v Speaker 1>your field. But um, some are are encouraging President Biden

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<v Speaker 1>on his trip to Poland to just go ahead, go

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<v Speaker 1>next door, go see Vladimir Zelenski in Kiev announced an

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<v Speaker 1>advanced city. American president is going to be in Kiev.

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<v Speaker 1>How crazy an idea is? That? It's crazy. It's on

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<v Speaker 1>the it's a hundred on the crazy meter. I can't

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<v Speaker 1>even imagineer proposed that. I mean, I can't even we

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<v Speaker 1>please the risk that would go with that. It's just

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<v Speaker 1>not worth any potential reward. Um, you know, Joe Biden

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<v Speaker 1>is not the spring of the chickens to be in

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<v Speaker 1>a situation where something had to happen and he had

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<v Speaker 1>to move quickly. Let's say he's not doing it. So

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<v Speaker 1>I know that that's not a good idea. I don't know.

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<v Speaker 1>I you know, it's not He's not the right guy.

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<v Speaker 1>All the things are wrong. He's not the right guy.

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<v Speaker 1>That's a really dangerous place. We've got a really bad enemy.

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<v Speaker 1>You do the math on that, and you double underlining,

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<v Speaker 1>you say probability of success in that his zero. So

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<v Speaker 1>I think I saw that and I wasn't think Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>I think one on the crazy meter pretty much summarized

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<v Speaker 1>your view, well, said Major Mike Clients. Mike, thank you

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<v Speaker 1>so much for the analysis. Let's talk again soon. Great, Gus,

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<v Speaker 1>thanks for so so. He's a military expert. That's what

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<v Speaker 1>he knows as well as anybody in America. That's why

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<v Speaker 1>we talked to him on the media public opinion question, though,

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<v Speaker 1>which is something I know more about. I was watching

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<v Speaker 1>MSNBC this morning. Joe Scarborough, who has the ear of

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of the Democratic Party in this country, said

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<v Speaker 1>there's no way Americans and Europeans put up with the

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<v Speaker 1>use of nukes on the European continent, and the politicians

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<v Speaker 1>would be pushed so hard to react to that, even

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<v Speaker 1>even if so even if militarily, As my clients said,

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<v Speaker 1>what are you gonna do? It's a bad idea, It's

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<v Speaker 1>not a red line, boy. I think public opinion wise, WHOA,

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<v Speaker 1>I think it would be huge. I could explain to

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<v Speaker 1>why it shouldn't be, but you know, at a certain

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<v Speaker 1>point that doesn't matter. It's nuclear energy is an energy source,

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<v Speaker 1>and those bombs are very, very different. The tactical nukes

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<v Speaker 1>we're talking about are very, very different from a major

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<v Speaker 1>nuclear weapon. Oh yeah, but how about the idea of

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<v Speaker 1>wiping out Imagine what those videos look like if it

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<v Speaker 1>completely obliterated ten square miles. What the hell would those

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<v Speaker 1>videos look like? Oh my god, And the public opinion

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<v Speaker 1>in the United States, I think would would run way

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<v Speaker 1>toward we need to do more. Imagine what it would

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<v Speaker 1>be in Europe that same journalists. You just heard Katie

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<v Speaker 1>Turo and I've heard David Ignatius to the Washington Post

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<v Speaker 1>talking about traveling around Europe. He said, you can't believe

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<v Speaker 1>the fever pitch of support for Ukraine there is in

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<v Speaker 1>Europe right now. Imagine if he uses a nuke. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>and I wonder what those echoes would be in Beijing

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<v Speaker 1>as well. As they're they're desperately and pathetically trying to

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<v Speaker 1>defend the indefensible, and we have some of those clips

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<v Speaker 1>and they'll just make you squirm in your seat. But

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<v Speaker 1>can you imagine if if it got even more horrific

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<v Speaker 1>and indefensible, what sort of recalculations might happen in Beijing?

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<v Speaker 1>There is I hope I never find out. I hope

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<v Speaker 1>we don't find out any of this stuff. But it

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<v Speaker 1>is not just you know, wild talk radio speculation. This

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<v Speaker 1>is absolutely on the table over the next couple of weeks.

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<v Speaker 1>The fact that Putin decides to use a tactical nuke,

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<v Speaker 1>Europe says, no, you're not. And you know, we we

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<v Speaker 1>don't make all the decisions in NATO. NATO decides we're

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<v Speaker 1>responding to this full on we're at war with Russia. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>you do not use nukes that close to NATO countries,

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<v Speaker 1>and yet we're at war with the biggest nuclear power

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<v Speaker 1>in the world. You know, you make a good point.

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<v Speaker 1>Radiation floats with the wind, so that is that, that

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<v Speaker 1>is the red line. You have now in effect attacked

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<v Speaker 1>Poland for instance, or Romania or wherever. People have said

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<v Speaker 1>previously are still say that the likelihood of this, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>spreading toward the United States, I think I think they're

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<v Speaker 1>being way too sanguine about the idea of a full

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<v Speaker 1>on US versus Russia war. I hope it doesn't happen

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<v Speaker 1>NATO versus Russia. Please. As an American, I'm mostly worried

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<v Speaker 1>about the the U s angle of UM. I think

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<v Speaker 1>I think if Putin uses a tactical nuke and I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>this is completely out of my high nand I don't

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<v Speaker 1>know what he's thinking is, but I gotta believe that

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<v Speaker 1>that's like at least a fifty fifty chance over the

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<v Speaker 1>next couple of weeks, given how backed into a corner

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<v Speaker 1>he is, what are his other options? Well, this one

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<v Speaker 1>wouldn't do him any good. I mean, in the long term,

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<v Speaker 1>it would do enormous harm. But that's the problem. None

0:12:07.880 --> 0:12:11.000
<v Speaker 1>of this is doing him any good. Bombing that mall

0:12:11.040 --> 0:12:14.000
<v Speaker 1>earlier today, killing who knows how many hundreds of people

0:12:14.000 --> 0:12:16.040
<v Speaker 1>didn't do him any good. None of this is doing

0:12:16.120 --> 0:12:18.760
<v Speaker 1>him any good. He's doomed. He might as well put

0:12:18.800 --> 0:12:22.839
<v Speaker 1>a gun in his mouth today. He is over. Can

0:12:22.880 --> 0:12:25.640
<v Speaker 1>we have a vote on that one? That proposal? I

0:12:25.720 --> 0:12:28.160
<v Speaker 1>love that idea. Well, how many you know this is

0:12:28.160 --> 0:12:30.439
<v Speaker 1>getting really really grim, I realized, But it's a grim topic.

0:12:30.760 --> 0:12:34.160
<v Speaker 1>How many times do you see the situation where it's

0:12:34.200 --> 0:12:37.319
<v Speaker 1>usually a guy you know, I'm taking you know, I'm

0:12:37.360 --> 0:12:39.600
<v Speaker 1>I'm I'm angry at the boss, I'm angry at the family,

0:12:39.640 --> 0:12:42.240
<v Speaker 1>whatever it is they're going with me before I put

0:12:42.280 --> 0:12:44.800
<v Speaker 1>the gun in my mouth. Happens all the time. Putin

0:12:44.880 --> 0:12:47.800
<v Speaker 1>might be that guy. He just it's gonna be nukes

0:12:47.800 --> 0:12:53.640
<v Speaker 1>on the world stage. Well, yep, Graham is Right's but

0:12:53.920 --> 0:12:59.800
<v Speaker 1>completely I think one a real possibility. God dang it,

0:12:59.840 --> 0:13:02.800
<v Speaker 1>these next couple of weeks are going to be dicey.

0:13:02.840 --> 0:13:05.679
<v Speaker 1>But like you said earlier, there's there's no there's no

0:13:05.920 --> 0:13:08.120
<v Speaker 1>letting him out of the corner. He can't back down

0:13:08.200 --> 0:13:12.040
<v Speaker 1>from the guy. No, But all you can do is,

0:13:12.280 --> 0:13:15.360
<v Speaker 1>to paraphrase Winston Churchill, is to face it and deal

0:13:15.400 --> 0:13:18.080
<v Speaker 1>with it quickly. Don't turn your back because you will

0:13:18.160 --> 0:13:21.760
<v Speaker 1>double the danger. Um. So wow, we'll watch that now.

0:13:21.800 --> 0:13:26.120
<v Speaker 1>On a more inspirational note, I don't know from David Beckham,

0:13:26.160 --> 0:13:28.720
<v Speaker 1>the giant soccer star. I understand he could bend it.

0:13:29.160 --> 0:13:31.120
<v Speaker 1>I wouldn't know him if he walked into the studio

0:13:31.160 --> 0:13:34.480
<v Speaker 1>and kicked me with his super powerful socker leg right

0:13:34.520 --> 0:13:38.080
<v Speaker 1>in the junk. But he did something incredibly beautiful this

0:13:38.120 --> 0:13:40.400
<v Speaker 1>past week. I want to tell you about, Okay, fantastic,

0:13:40.760 --> 0:13:42.840
<v Speaker 1>that's good stuff. I do need to talk about how

0:13:42.880 --> 0:13:47.440
<v Speaker 1>my kid uh did in that kid way. He was

0:13:47.440 --> 0:13:49.439
<v Speaker 1>pretty damaging to me, you know. And then the way

0:13:49.480 --> 0:13:53.480
<v Speaker 1>that kids are super honest, Oh no, not honest, too honest.

0:13:53.520 --> 0:13:55.559
<v Speaker 1>Sometimes you got that for a bunch of other stuff,

0:13:55.559 --> 0:13:58.000
<v Speaker 1>and you can text us any thoughts on that conversation

0:13:58.480 --> 0:14:03.080
<v Speaker 1>four nine five k f tc Barn strong and yetty