WEBVTT - Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend-December 20, 2020 0:00:01.320 --> 0:00:06.240 This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser from Bloomberg Radio. Hi, 0:00:06.320 --> 0:00:09.000 I'm Carol Masser. Welcome to the weekend edition of Bloomberg 0:00:09.000 --> 0:00:12.240 Business Week. Week forty working from home Still for many, 0:00:12.480 --> 0:00:15.800 it was a week with another reality check, as virus cases, 0:00:15.840 --> 0:00:19.720 hospitalizations and deaths rows to record levels in some places, 0:00:19.840 --> 0:00:23.040 and as vaccine distribution began and then hit some snags. 0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:25.680 Progress overall, but with a lot of work to be 0:00:25.720 --> 0:00:29.080 done when it comes to both COVID nineteen and our economy. 0:00:29.120 --> 0:00:31.960 This was all on our mind with our conversations this week, 0:00:32.240 --> 0:00:35.320 including one with Dr Stephen Corwin, President CEO of New 0:00:35.400 --> 0:00:38.360 York Presbyterian Hospital, who was at the center of New 0:00:38.440 --> 0:00:42.400 York's coronavirus crisis last spring. He provided some perspective on 0:00:42.479 --> 0:00:45.880 today's cases. We'll also hear from the Carlisle Group David 0:00:45.920 --> 0:00:49.920 Rubinstein on his conversations with Jeff Bezos, Ruth Bader, Ginsburg, 0:00:50.040 --> 0:00:53.880 Oprah and more. It's all in his book How to Lead. Also, 0:00:54.000 --> 0:00:56.480 speaking of books, how about the best business books of 0:00:57.520 --> 0:01:00.840 Here's a hint, they're not all business books. We start, though, 0:01:00.880 --> 0:01:04.360 with this week's cover story about the urban exodus. That's 0:01:04.360 --> 0:01:06.760 happening as a result of working from home, and how 0:01:06.800 --> 0:01:10.640 the pandemic migration could reshape the American economy. For more, 0:01:10.680 --> 0:01:13.760 Bloomberg Quicktake anchor Tim Stanovic and I talked with Noah 0:01:13.760 --> 0:01:17.600 bu Hire, finance reporter at Bloomberg News and Bloomberg Business 0:01:17.640 --> 0:01:21.679 Week editor Jill Weber. We've been watching this trend um 0:01:21.720 --> 0:01:25.080 just evolved throughout the pandemic, and and it started with people, 0:01:25.360 --> 0:01:28.520 you know, basically the urban exodus, people leaving cities and 0:01:28.600 --> 0:01:31.400 going to the suburbs or or the country. And then 0:01:32.120 --> 0:01:34.800 instead of renting some of those places, people started buying 0:01:35.000 --> 0:01:37.760 and and then you know, the employers started to catch 0:01:37.840 --> 0:01:40.080 up with with it eventually, and that's really kind of 0:01:40.120 --> 0:01:42.399 the new element. And I think the one that that 0:01:42.440 --> 0:01:46.040 really distinguishes Noah's story has been, you know, the shift 0:01:46.160 --> 0:01:48.920 was at first it was just the real estate implications, 0:01:49.000 --> 0:01:53.080 but now it's about the pay implications. And Noah's reporting 0:01:53.160 --> 0:01:56.320 actually centers on a store, on a company, Red Fend, 0:01:56.400 --> 0:01:59.360 the real estate company, and they actually almost become the 0:01:59.440 --> 0:02:03.240 vehicle for the story. So no tell us about this 0:02:03.320 --> 0:02:08.560 trend and what we've learned through Red Sin. Yeah, Well, 0:02:08.600 --> 0:02:10.960 I think you really, you really captured it. I mean, 0:02:10.960 --> 0:02:13.600 this is uh, this is a trend in HR policy 0:02:13.720 --> 0:02:17.280 right now. We've we've we've had this massive experiment in 0:02:17.320 --> 0:02:20.080 working from home, and I think a lot of companies 0:02:20.560 --> 0:02:24.119 have found that it works for people. Um. It's not perfect. 0:02:24.200 --> 0:02:27.760 There are for sure some drawbacks. UM, but as as 0:02:27.800 --> 0:02:31.240 we've gone through the months, companies, I think, responding to 0:02:31.280 --> 0:02:35.320 what they're hearing from their workforces, have realized that they 0:02:35.360 --> 0:02:39.960 can allow for a much greater uh amount of remote 0:02:39.960 --> 0:02:44.280 work um when the pandemic is finally over. And that's 0:02:44.360 --> 0:02:48.640 forced them to really reckon with uh policies and how 0:02:48.760 --> 0:02:51.240 how you how you actually make this work in a 0:02:51.280 --> 0:02:55.680 way that's that's fairer and reasonable for your business. And um, 0:02:55.720 --> 0:02:58.880 really it's just opened up a giant can of worms because, uh, 0:02:59.160 --> 0:03:02.080 you know, the cost of labor and the cost of 0:03:02.120 --> 0:03:06.440 living just vary so radically across the US that, um, 0:03:06.840 --> 0:03:10.320 you could create situations where you know, if someone moved 0:03:10.320 --> 0:03:15.960 from the Bay Area to Phoenix or Atlanta, they um, 0:03:16.000 --> 0:03:19.040 and they carried their salary with them, they just um, 0:03:19.120 --> 0:03:23.280 you create a situation where um, you were paying way 0:03:23.280 --> 0:03:26.600 above market essentially. Okay, So the red fin thing that's 0:03:26.600 --> 0:03:31.079 so interesting though, is that once people sort of moved out, uh, 0:03:31.120 --> 0:03:32.960 and the company had to grapple with us. And they 0:03:32.960 --> 0:03:38.000 were actually proactive I think and having a plan basically, um. 0:03:38.040 --> 0:03:41.360 And they basically realized that in order to implement this, 0:03:41.480 --> 0:03:44.560 they needed to have some version of like a localized 0:03:45.200 --> 0:03:48.520 pay policy. Right. So so tell us about how they 0:03:48.560 --> 0:03:52.040 actually went about implementing that. Yeah, so on some levels, 0:03:52.080 --> 0:03:55.000 like companies have been doing this for years, right, it's 0:03:55.040 --> 0:03:58.640 just um uh, like they thought about, well, if we 0:03:58.680 --> 0:04:01.200 open a new office in a new city, what do 0:04:01.280 --> 0:04:05.360 we pay people. What's interesting is that that red Fin 0:04:05.520 --> 0:04:07.400 and I think a lot of other companies you know, 0:04:07.520 --> 0:04:09.920 had to do this on a mass scale. So what 0:04:09.960 --> 0:04:13.240 Redfin did is they got a bunch of data on 0:04:13.360 --> 0:04:16.240 cost of labor and cost of living. Um. Their their 0:04:16.279 --> 0:04:18.880 real estate company. They're in the home brokerage business, so 0:04:18.920 --> 0:04:21.479 they're they're pretty attuned to this stuff. And I have 0:04:21.520 --> 0:04:24.080 a lot of in house data, but they got external 0:04:24.240 --> 0:04:27.480 data as well, um to try and craft a policy 0:04:27.520 --> 0:04:30.559 of what's fair and and and you know, the data 0:04:30.680 --> 0:04:33.239 informed their decisions, but there were a lot of judgment 0:04:33.279 --> 0:04:35.240 calls at the end of the day, and you know, 0:04:35.279 --> 0:04:38.960 they're still tweaking and trying to make sure, um, you know, 0:04:39.279 --> 0:04:42.240 their policy works for their people and that they can 0:04:42.279 --> 0:04:45.640 continue to recruit and retain the best people because at 0:04:45.640 --> 0:04:47.440 the end of the day, that's that's really what this 0:04:47.520 --> 0:04:51.200 is about for for companies is you know, there's even 0:04:51.480 --> 0:04:54.679 with unemployment where it is today, there for certain kinds 0:04:54.680 --> 0:04:59.000 of jobs, they're still and insatiable appetite um and demand 0:04:59.560 --> 0:05:03.320 for people and um, you know, as companies compete for talent, 0:05:03.400 --> 0:05:06.200 they want to make sure they're paying the right amount 0:05:06.200 --> 0:05:08.960 in the markets where those people want to be. No, 0:05:09.160 --> 0:05:11.640 there's there's something you explore in the piece, the economic 0:05:11.720 --> 0:05:15.039 implications of this. The idea that people are leaving higher 0:05:15.240 --> 0:05:19.159 cost areas moving to areas than aren't is expensive. And 0:05:19.320 --> 0:05:21.400 with that, of course, if they're leaving a city or 0:05:21.440 --> 0:05:25.159 a state, with them goes tax base, with them, goes 0:05:25.200 --> 0:05:27.840 spending in that local economy. What are the long term 0:05:27.839 --> 0:05:33.040 implications of this migration? Well, I don't think we know, 0:05:33.520 --> 0:05:38.039 ye is the short and short non answer, but um, 0:05:38.080 --> 0:05:40.840 it certainly doesn't seem like it's going to be helpful 0:05:41.080 --> 0:05:44.000 for high cost places like New York and San Francisco 0:05:44.120 --> 0:05:46.479 as they you know, as the whole country tries to 0:05:47.240 --> 0:05:51.240 uh dig itself out of of of the economic implications 0:05:51.240 --> 0:05:53.440 of the pandemic. I mean, it's not helpful when you 0:05:53.560 --> 0:06:00.000 have high earners leave your city, but at the same by, 0:06:00.400 --> 0:06:02.560 you know, at the same time, like, we just don't 0:06:02.680 --> 0:06:05.560 know that at this point how extensive this is going 0:06:05.600 --> 0:06:09.120 to be. And and there are some real benefits to 0:06:09.920 --> 0:06:14.120 um living in being near where the action is, where 0:06:14.160 --> 0:06:17.599 there are other people in your industry, and um, you know, 0:06:17.680 --> 0:06:19.440 that could be a draw for people to come back 0:06:19.480 --> 0:06:21.640 to some of these high cost places. And that was 0:06:21.680 --> 0:06:24.080 our cover story this week in the magazine that was 0:06:24.120 --> 0:06:26.640 No Blue Higher Finance reporter at Bloomberg News along with 0:06:26.640 --> 0:06:29.440 Bloomberg Business. We get to Joe Weber joining Bloomberg Cricket 0:06:29.440 --> 0:06:31.520 Take anchor Tim Stenovik and me working from home Man, 0:06:31.560 --> 0:06:33.640 that is something we have talked so much about this 0:06:33.720 --> 0:06:36.039 year because of the pandemic. And coming up in the 0:06:36.040 --> 0:06:37.680 next hour, keep in mind we're going to hear more 0:06:37.680 --> 0:06:40.120 about working from home. It's impact on our lives and 0:06:40.160 --> 0:06:43.880 our brains. Microsoft is keeping track of that. First up 0:06:43.880 --> 0:06:47.880 though straight ahead, we're seeing a significant increase in COVID cases. 0:06:48.040 --> 0:06:50.760 Another very tough week for the nation. Because of the virus. 0:06:51.000 --> 0:06:53.480 The CEO of New York Presbyterian, home to New York's 0:06:53.520 --> 0:06:57.400 first confirmed COVID case last spring, share some perspective on today. 0:06:57.600 --> 0:07:03.200 This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Garrol 0:07:03.240 --> 0:07:06.839 Mazer from Bloomberg Radio. This week was another tough one 0:07:06.880 --> 0:07:09.240 in the battle against the coronavirus. We saw the first 0:07:09.279 --> 0:07:12.040 hiccups in the distribution of a COVID nineteen vaccine in 0:07:12.080 --> 0:07:16.160 the US. The headlines were equally difficult globally. With that 0:07:16.240 --> 0:07:18.920 in mind, Bloomberg Quick Takes, Tim Stanovic and I caught 0:07:19.000 --> 0:07:22.000 up with Dr Stephen Corwin, president CEO of New York 0:07:22.000 --> 0:07:25.080 Presbyterian Hospital, who The New York Times called in the spring, 0:07:25.120 --> 0:07:28.200 the CEO at the center of New York's coronavirus crisis. 0:07:28.600 --> 0:07:30.560 The first confirmed case in the New York area was 0:07:30.640 --> 0:07:34.120 in one of New York Presbyterians hospitals last spring. Dr 0:07:34.240 --> 0:07:37.680 Corwyn began, though, with what today looks like, we're seeing 0:07:37.920 --> 0:07:42.640 a significant increase in COVID cases. Word about of what 0:07:42.680 --> 0:07:47.360 our peak was in in the April time frame, and 0:07:47.440 --> 0:07:52.440 we expected quickly to go to the thirty range by 0:07:52.640 --> 0:07:55.000 Christmas time, if not a little bit after, so we're 0:07:55.000 --> 0:08:00.320 seeing a significant uptick. The good news is uh at 0:08:00.680 --> 0:08:03.880 people are less sick with the virus as we see it. 0:08:04.960 --> 0:08:07.960 During April, we had a mortality rate in the hospital 0:08:07.960 --> 0:08:13.400 of about extraordinary. Now it's down to about five, which 0:08:13.440 --> 0:08:17.800 is still horrific, especially if it's your loved one, but 0:08:17.800 --> 0:08:20.920 but much less than than April. So I would say 0:08:20.960 --> 0:08:24.920 we've got a rough four to six weeks ahead of us. Uh. 0:08:24.960 --> 0:08:28.840 But um, I think that we'll get through it, especially 0:08:28.880 --> 0:08:31.840 as we start vaccinating people quick follow. Um. Do you 0:08:31.880 --> 0:08:34.440 anticipate that we're going to get back to those levels 0:08:34.600 --> 0:08:38.760 in terms of hospitalizations um and cases um where we 0:08:38.800 --> 0:08:40.960 are there, but in terms of hospitalizations that we saw 0:08:41.000 --> 0:08:44.160 back in the spring, we hope not. Um. You know, 0:08:44.240 --> 0:08:49.120 we're clearly mindful of that. Our modeling would show that 0:08:49.160 --> 0:08:52.360 we would peak in the in the middle of January 0:08:52.440 --> 0:08:57.000 unless we have a really terrible Christmas season in terms 0:08:57.040 --> 0:09:00.240 of people traveling and avoiding, social distancing and man sking. 0:09:00.320 --> 0:09:02.680 We still haven't seen the full peak of of what 0:09:02.800 --> 0:09:06.080 happened in Thanksgiving, so that that really is a variable 0:09:06.160 --> 0:09:11.920 that that that relates to this directly. So uh, certainly 0:09:11.960 --> 0:09:13.920 no one wants to go back to where the city 0:09:14.040 --> 0:09:18.240 was in April, and we certainly don't. And so again 0:09:18.840 --> 0:09:23.640 until we get mass vaccination, masking, social distancing, washing your hands, 0:09:23.640 --> 0:09:26.920 all the things you keep hearing about become really critical. 0:09:27.040 --> 0:09:30.560 And I empathize with our elected officials in terms of 0:09:30.800 --> 0:09:32.640 how much of a lockdown do you need to have 0:09:32.840 --> 0:09:34.920 versus not? I think a lot of it depends on 0:09:34.960 --> 0:09:39.880 how much virus is circulating. Dr Corwin. Why is the 0:09:39.920 --> 0:09:42.679 mortality rate gone down so much? Is it because of 0:09:42.720 --> 0:09:46.040 what we've learned, what you've learned since March, since April? 0:09:46.080 --> 0:09:48.880 Is it because the hospital is not strained in the 0:09:48.960 --> 0:09:53.439 same way as it because of therapeutics? Um? I think 0:09:54.480 --> 0:09:57.000 first the answer to your question is I really don't know. 0:09:57.320 --> 0:09:59.640 To be honest with you, I do think that we 0:09:59.760 --> 0:10:01.560 serve We know how to take care of the patients better. 0:10:02.520 --> 0:10:07.480 Um ramdzevie steroids. They may not be game changers, but 0:10:07.480 --> 0:10:11.000 but we know how to use these drugs. UM with 0:10:11.080 --> 0:10:14.400 the masking and social distancing, are people getting less of 0:10:14.400 --> 0:10:17.720 a viral load when they get sick. We've certainly seen 0:10:17.760 --> 0:10:20.440 a shift to a younger demographic who tends to be 0:10:20.559 --> 0:10:24.480 less sick with the virus um and to your point. 0:10:25.320 --> 0:10:29.200 Any system over that gets overwhelmed, it becomes more difficult 0:10:29.200 --> 0:10:32.440 to save lives. So the ability to not get the 0:10:32.480 --> 0:10:36.640 hospital overwhelmed I think plays into it as well. So 0:10:36.840 --> 0:10:39.560 all of the above, but it's gonna take us a 0:10:39.559 --> 0:10:42.880 while to swear it through. This virus becoming less virulent, 0:10:43.640 --> 0:10:46.800 we don't see that, but that's that's gonna take time 0:10:46.840 --> 0:10:48.560 for us to figure out. One thing that you just 0:10:48.559 --> 0:10:51.000 said really struck me. People wearing masks that you get 0:10:51.040 --> 0:10:53.080 less of a viral load. I haven't heard that before. 0:10:53.679 --> 0:10:57.880 What does that mean? Well, remember, UH, you know, UH 0:10:58.040 --> 0:11:02.320 masks aren't totally affect active, but it helps to it 0:11:02.400 --> 0:11:06.000 helps to filter out particles, and so we use the 0:11:06.080 --> 0:11:09.680 N ninety five masks when we're caring for patients UH, 0:11:09.679 --> 0:11:14.079 and that clearly prevents UH inhalation of the virus particles. 0:11:14.080 --> 0:11:18.679 So wearing a surgical mask not only protects UH the 0:11:18.720 --> 0:11:21.720 person that you would be breathing on, but also helps 0:11:21.720 --> 0:11:24.120 to protect you. And if you get less of a 0:11:24.240 --> 0:11:27.199 viral load, you may have a milder milder infection that 0:11:27.280 --> 0:11:29.520 if somebody gave you a full viral load, which is 0:11:29.559 --> 0:11:32.439 clearly what we saw in the beginning of the pandemic. Hey, 0:11:32.480 --> 0:11:35.160 what do you make Dr Corrin? A new mutation of 0:11:35.240 --> 0:11:37.320 COVID nineteen turned up and I guess more than a 0:11:37.400 --> 0:11:40.480 thousand infected patients in the UK and was being blamed 0:11:40.480 --> 0:11:43.440 for more rapid spread of the contagion. Does that make 0:11:43.440 --> 0:11:46.600 you a little nervous? It does? I mean I think 0:11:46.640 --> 0:11:50.280 that this We know that the virus has many, many mutations. 0:11:50.280 --> 0:11:53.200 I mean this is not the first one. Uh. When 0:11:53.360 --> 0:11:56.120 people went on holiday this summer, they came back with 0:11:56.160 --> 0:11:59.560 a variation from Spain which appeared to be more virulent 0:11:59.600 --> 0:12:03.720 and cause wider spread. So this is not surprising. Viruses, 0:12:03.880 --> 0:12:08.120 like anything else, mutate over time. The fortunate aspect for 0:12:08.240 --> 0:12:11.400 US VISA via the vaccine is the spike protein is 0:12:12.080 --> 0:12:16.520 the key in terms of inducing immunogenicity, and so knowing 0:12:16.559 --> 0:12:21.160 the spike protein UM and and developing the mRNA towards 0:12:21.240 --> 0:12:24.000 the spike protein. I think we're in pretty good shape 0:12:24.000 --> 0:12:28.120 regardless of the variations now in terms of making sure 0:12:28.240 --> 0:12:31.480 that that the vaccination will be very effective, right, because 0:12:31.480 --> 0:12:34.000 that's what I've heard, that the current vaccines um still 0:12:34.040 --> 0:12:38.040 will work on these mutations. Is that correct? That's correct 0:12:38.320 --> 0:12:40.840 as far as I know, Yes, that's correct, and I 0:12:40.880 --> 0:12:44.240 think that because the spike protein has not changed, so 0:12:44.280 --> 0:12:48.280 it's not as it's the mutation profile is not what 0:12:48.440 --> 0:12:52.800 we see in influenza uh. And I think that that's encouraging. 0:12:52.840 --> 0:12:57.400 And we're very bullish on the m RNA platform and 0:12:57.200 --> 0:13:00.080 the vaccine. So Dr corn I want to ask you 0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:02.360 when you're interview at the time, when you were interviewing 0:13:02.400 --> 0:13:05.280 The Times back in May, you noted that our assumptions 0:13:05.280 --> 0:13:09.000 around pandemic preparations were flawed. Are there assumptions we are 0:13:09.000 --> 0:13:11.840 making right now about this wave of the COVID breakout, 0:13:12.120 --> 0:13:15.400 this other wave, another wave, and about the distribution of 0:13:15.400 --> 0:13:17.720 the vaccine and the impact that will have. Might some 0:13:17.880 --> 0:13:21.920 of those assumptions be flawed as well? We grossly underestimated 0:13:22.720 --> 0:13:26.760 pre pandemic the amount of protective equipment equipment we would need. 0:13:26.880 --> 0:13:31.480 For personnel protective equipment. We have over ninety days of 0:13:31.520 --> 0:13:36.240 supply for every major category of that. We had issues 0:13:36.280 --> 0:13:38.960 in terms of do we have an A ventilators? We 0:13:39.040 --> 0:13:42.200 clearly don't have that issue. Now we know how to 0:13:42.240 --> 0:13:45.040 create extra I see you beds, and we know how 0:13:45.080 --> 0:13:48.120 to create staffing models that that protect our patients. So 0:13:49.000 --> 0:13:52.840 from that standpoint, we're much better off. Where I think 0:13:52.920 --> 0:13:55.480 that we can make a mistake as a country is 0:13:55.520 --> 0:13:58.840 to assume that the vaccines here, we can let down 0:13:58.840 --> 0:14:02.520 our guard. Let's go back to business as usual. It's 0:14:02.520 --> 0:14:04.240 going to take a while for us to get to 0:14:04.360 --> 0:14:08.200 hurt immunity, and so we've got to do two things simultaneously, 0:14:08.679 --> 0:14:13.320 be really stringent about the guidelines and and separating ourselves 0:14:13.320 --> 0:14:16.440 from each other as tough as that maybe um, and 0:14:16.520 --> 0:14:20.880 let people get vaccinated and educate the population on the vaccine. 0:14:20.920 --> 0:14:24.000 We have a lot of the population is skeptical of 0:14:24.040 --> 0:14:29.240 the vaccine. Are populations of color who've been experimented upon 0:14:29.280 --> 0:14:32.000 in the past, their skeptical of the vaccine. So we've 0:14:32.000 --> 0:14:35.200 really got to educate the population as to the safety 0:14:35.200 --> 0:14:38.160 and the efficacy of the vaccine. That skepticism is what 0:14:38.200 --> 0:14:41.040 worries some about our ability to reach her immunity when 0:14:41.040 --> 0:14:44.080 it comes to the virus. That was Dr Stephen Corwin, 0:14:44.160 --> 0:14:47.560 Presidency of New York Presbyterian Hospital, joining Bloomberg Quick Take 0:14:47.600 --> 0:14:50.880 anchor Tim Stanovic and me. You're listening to Bloomberg Business 0:14:50.920 --> 0:14:53.600 Week coming up. The pandemic didn't come with a playbook, 0:14:53.800 --> 0:14:56.240 and yet leaders this year drew on many great books 0:14:56.240 --> 0:14:58.960 to find their way. That's next in our Pursuits guide 0:14:59.000 --> 0:15:04.280 to the Best business books. This is Bloomberg. This is 0:15:04.320 --> 0:15:08.560 Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Mazer from Bloomberg Radio. This 0:15:08.600 --> 0:15:11.680 week was another tough one in the battle against the coronavirus. 0:15:11.720 --> 0:15:13.680 We saw the first hiccups in the distribution of a 0:15:13.680 --> 0:15:17.320 COVID nineteen vaccine in the US. The headlines were equally 0:15:17.360 --> 0:15:20.880 difficult globally. With that in mind, Bloomberg Quick Takes, Tim 0:15:20.880 --> 0:15:24.240 Stanovic and I caught up with Dr Stephen Corwin, president 0:15:24.320 --> 0:15:27.000 CEO of New York Presbyterian Hospital, who The New York 0:15:27.000 --> 0:15:29.400 Times called in the spring the CEO at the center 0:15:29.400 --> 0:15:32.640 of New York's coronavirus crisis. The first confirmed case in 0:15:32.640 --> 0:15:34.320 the New York area was in one of New York 0:15:34.320 --> 0:15:38.480 Presbyterians hospitals last spring. Dr Corwyn began though with what 0:15:38.560 --> 0:15:43.120 today looks like we're seeing a significant increase in COVID cases. 0:15:43.840 --> 0:15:48.440 Worried about of what our peak was in in the 0:15:48.480 --> 0:15:52.360 April time frame, and we expected quickly to go to 0:15:52.480 --> 0:15:57.160 the thirty range by Christmas time, if not a little 0:15:57.160 --> 0:16:00.520 bit after. So we're seeing a significant uptick The good 0:16:00.560 --> 0:16:05.920 news is that people are less sick with the virus 0:16:06.160 --> 0:16:09.880 as we see it. During April, we had a mortality 0:16:10.000 --> 0:16:14.760 rate in the hospital of about extraordinary. Now it's down 0:16:14.760 --> 0:16:18.800 to about five, which is still horrific, especially if it's 0:16:18.800 --> 0:16:22.560 your loved one, but but much less than than April. 0:16:22.640 --> 0:16:25.840 So I would say we've got a rough four to 0:16:25.920 --> 0:16:29.760 six weeks ahead of us. Uh. But UM, I think 0:16:29.840 --> 0:16:33.080 that we'll get through it, especially as we start vaccinating 0:16:33.120 --> 0:16:35.800 people quick follow. Um. Do you anticipate that we're going 0:16:35.840 --> 0:16:39.440 to get back to those levels in terms of hospitalizations 0:16:39.720 --> 0:16:42.480 um and cases um what we are there, but in 0:16:42.560 --> 0:16:44.680 terms of hospitalizations that we saw back in the spring, 0:16:45.680 --> 0:16:49.960 we hope not. Um. You know, we're clearly mindful of that. 0:16:50.560 --> 0:16:53.080 Our modeling would show that we would peak in the 0:16:53.520 --> 0:16:58.280 in the middle of January unless we have a really 0:16:58.360 --> 0:17:01.760 terrible Christmas season in terms of people traveling and avoiding, 0:17:01.800 --> 0:17:04.520 social distancing and masking, we still haven't seen the full 0:17:04.520 --> 0:17:07.639 peak of of what happened and Thanksgiving, so that that 0:17:07.760 --> 0:17:13.040 really is a variable that that that relates to this directly. 0:17:13.160 --> 0:17:16.159 So UM, certainly no one wants to go back to 0:17:16.200 --> 0:17:19.240 where the city was in April, and we certainly don't. 0:17:19.880 --> 0:17:25.720 And so again, until we get mass vaccination, masking, social distancing, 0:17:25.800 --> 0:17:28.119 washing your hands, all the things you keep hearing about 0:17:28.240 --> 0:17:32.800 become really critical. And I empathize with our elected officials 0:17:32.800 --> 0:17:35.119 in terms of how much of a lockdown do you 0:17:35.160 --> 0:17:37.359 need to have versus not? I think a lot of 0:17:37.359 --> 0:17:41.680 it depends on how much virus is circulating. Dr Corwin. 0:17:42.400 --> 0:17:45.159 Why is the mortality rate gone down so much? Is 0:17:45.160 --> 0:17:48.280 it because of what we've learned, what you've learned since March, 0:17:48.359 --> 0:17:51.320 since April? Is it because the hospital is not strained 0:17:51.680 --> 0:17:56.080 in the same way as it because of therapeutics? Um? 0:17:56.160 --> 0:17:59.240 I think first the answer to your question is, I 0:17:59.320 --> 0:18:01.959 really don't know. To be honest with you, I do 0:18:02.119 --> 0:18:03.879 think that we certainly know how to take care of 0:18:03.880 --> 0:18:09.000 the patients better, um remdzevie, steroids. They may not be 0:18:09.240 --> 0:18:12.200 game changers, but but we know how to use these drugs. 0:18:12.840 --> 0:18:17.040 UM with the masking and social distancing, are people getting 0:18:17.119 --> 0:18:20.000 less of a viral load when they get sick. We've 0:18:20.040 --> 0:18:23.200 certainly seen a shift to a younger demographic who tends 0:18:23.240 --> 0:18:26.800 to be less sick with the virus. UM And to 0:18:26.920 --> 0:18:31.480 your point, any system over that gets overwhelmed, it becomes 0:18:31.480 --> 0:18:34.920 more difficult to save lives. So the ability to not 0:18:35.080 --> 0:18:39.320 get the hospital overwhelmed I think plays into it as well. 0:18:39.440 --> 0:18:42.480 So all of the above, but it's gonna take us 0:18:42.520 --> 0:18:45.920 a while to swear through this virus becoming less virulent. 0:18:46.680 --> 0:18:49.800 We don't see that, but that's that's gonna take time 0:18:49.840 --> 0:18:51.560 for us to figure out. One thing that you just 0:18:51.560 --> 0:18:54.000 said really struck me. People wearing masks that you get 0:18:54.040 --> 0:18:56.080 less of a viral load. I haven't heard that before. 0:18:56.680 --> 0:19:01.480 What does that mean? Well, remember, you know, UH masks 0:19:01.560 --> 0:19:05.879 aren't totally effective, but it helps to It helps to 0:19:06.119 --> 0:19:09.560 filter out particles, and so we use the N ninety 0:19:09.640 --> 0:19:13.080 five masks when we're caring for patients UH, and that 0:19:13.280 --> 0:19:18.040 clearly prevents UH inhalation of the virus particles. So wearing 0:19:18.040 --> 0:19:22.480 a surgical mask not only protects UH the person that 0:19:22.520 --> 0:19:25.399 you would be breathing on, but also helps to protect you. 0:19:25.960 --> 0:19:28.040 And if you get less of a viral load, you 0:19:28.080 --> 0:19:30.960 may have a milder, milder infection that if somebody gave 0:19:31.000 --> 0:19:33.199 you a full viral load, which is clearly what we 0:19:33.200 --> 0:19:35.720 saw in the beginning of the pandemic. Hey, what do 0:19:35.800 --> 0:19:38.879 you make Dr Corrin a new mutation of COVID nineteen 0:19:38.920 --> 0:19:41.240 turned up and I guess more than a thousand infected 0:19:41.240 --> 0:19:43.719 patients in the UK and was being blamed for more 0:19:43.840 --> 0:19:46.560 rapid spread of the contagion. Does that make you a 0:19:46.600 --> 0:19:50.199 little nervous? It does? I mean I think that this 0:19:50.720 --> 0:19:53.399 We know that the virus has many, many mutations. I 0:19:53.400 --> 0:19:56.679 mean this is not the first one. Uh. When people 0:19:56.720 --> 0:19:59.240 went on holiday this summer, they came back with a 0:19:59.320 --> 0:20:02.720 variation from Spain which appeared to be more virulent and 0:20:02.800 --> 0:20:06.960 caused wider spread. So this is not surprising. Viruses, like 0:20:07.080 --> 0:20:11.359 anything else, mutate over time. The fortunate aspect for US 0:20:11.440 --> 0:20:15.119 VISA via the vaccine is the spike protein is the 0:20:15.240 --> 0:20:19.679 key in terms of inducing immunogenicity, and so knowing the 0:20:19.680 --> 0:20:24.320 spike protein UM and and developing the mRNA towards the 0:20:24.320 --> 0:20:27.600 spike protein, I think we're in pretty good shape regardless 0:20:27.760 --> 0:20:31.800 of the variations now in terms of making sure that 0:20:31.800 --> 0:20:34.640 that the vaccination will be very effective, right, because that's 0:20:34.640 --> 0:20:37.240 what I've heard that the current vaccines um still will 0:20:37.280 --> 0:20:41.480 work on these mutations. Is that correct? That's correct as 0:20:41.520 --> 0:20:44.080 far as I know, Yes, that's correct. And I think 0:20:44.119 --> 0:20:47.480 that because the spike protein has not changed, So it's 0:20:47.520 --> 0:20:51.520 not as it's the mutation profile is not what we 0:20:51.560 --> 0:20:55.800 see in influenza uh. And I think that that's encouraging, 0:20:55.840 --> 0:21:00.399 and we're very bullish on the m RNA platform and 0:21:00.560 --> 0:21:03.040 the vaccine. So Dr corn, I want to ask you 0:21:03.119 --> 0:21:05.480 when you're interviewing the Time. When you were interviewing The 0:21:05.520 --> 0:21:08.560 Times back in May, you noted that our assumptions around 0:21:08.600 --> 0:21:12.240 pandemic preparations were flawed. Are there assumptions we are making 0:21:12.320 --> 0:21:15.159 right now about this wave of the COVID breakout, this 0:21:15.359 --> 0:21:18.480 other wave, another wave, and about the distribution of the 0:21:18.520 --> 0:21:20.960 vaccine and the impact that will have. Might some of 0:21:21.040 --> 0:21:25.880 those assumptions be flawed as well? We grossly underestimated pre 0:21:26.000 --> 0:21:29.760 pandemic the amount of protective equipment equipment we would need 0:21:29.880 --> 0:21:34.480 for personnel protective equipment. We have over ninety days of 0:21:34.520 --> 0:21:39.240 supply for every major category of that. We had issues 0:21:39.280 --> 0:21:42.440 in terms of do we have an ventilators? We clearly 0:21:42.480 --> 0:21:45.600 don't have that issue. Now we know how to create 0:21:45.680 --> 0:21:48.159 extra I see you beds, and we know how to 0:21:48.200 --> 0:21:52.200 create staffing models that that protect our patients. So from 0:21:52.200 --> 0:21:56.160 that standpoint, we're much better off where I think that 0:21:56.200 --> 0:21:58.600 we can make a mistake as a country is to 0:21:58.680 --> 0:22:02.000 assume that the vaccines here, we can let down our 0:22:02.040 --> 0:22:05.520 guard and let's go back to business as usual. It's 0:22:05.520 --> 0:22:07.240 going to take a while for us to get to 0:22:07.359 --> 0:22:11.240 hurt immunity, and so we've got to do two things simultaneously. 0:22:11.680 --> 0:22:16.480 Be really stringent about the guidelines and separating ourselves from 0:22:16.480 --> 0:22:19.680 each other as tough as that maybe um, and let 0:22:19.720 --> 0:22:23.879 people get vaccinated and educate the population on the vaccine. 0:22:23.920 --> 0:22:27.000 We have a lot of the population is skeptical of 0:22:27.040 --> 0:22:32.240 the vaccine. Are populations of color who've been experimented upon 0:22:32.280 --> 0:22:35.000 in the past, their skeptical of the vaccine. So we've 0:22:35.000 --> 0:22:38.200 really got to educate the population as to the safety 0:22:38.200 --> 0:22:41.159 and the efficacy of the vaccine. That skepticism is what 0:22:41.240 --> 0:22:44.040 worries some about our ability to reach her immunity when 0:22:44.040 --> 0:22:47.080 it comes to the virus. That was Dr Stephen Corwin, 0:22:47.160 --> 0:22:50.879 Presidency of New York Presbyterian Hospital. Joining Bloomberg Quicktake anchor 0:22:50.920 --> 0:22:54.120 Tim Stanovic, m me, you're listening to Bloomberg Business Week 0:22:54.160 --> 0:22:56.879 coming up. The pandemic didn't come with a playbook, and 0:22:56.960 --> 0:22:59.320 yet leaders this year drew on many great books to 0:22:59.359 --> 0:23:02.080 find their way. That's next in our Pursuits guide to 0:23:02.080 --> 0:23:07.280 the best business books of This is Bloomberg. This is 0:23:07.320 --> 0:23:11.480 Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Mazer from Bloomberg Radio. In 0:23:11.480 --> 0:23:13.800