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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Pot All right, here we go fifteen twenty twenty five

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Speaker 2: thirty thirty five forty coty five fifty and the.

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Speaker 3: Kick as block the College Football World Stunners, Oh my goodness, he.

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Speaker 2: Stumbled and football the lateral.

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Speaker 4: Turn the canter of the episode.

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Speaker 1: Do you believe.

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Speaker 4: Notna table up the field? The night?

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Speaker 2: God, it's not the size of the dog in the fight.

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Speaker 2: It's the size of the fight in the dog.

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Speaker 4: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 4: on Campus Podcast. This is the SEC College Football Betting Preview,

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Speaker 4: Part one. I'm stuck in joining me as always my

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Speaker 4: fellow bb SEE co hosts Colin Wilson. Today's episode, we're

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Speaker 4: gonna knock out the three teams that don't really have

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Speaker 4: a chance of making it to the college football Playoff.

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Speaker 1: Here it just means more, what.

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Speaker 2: Are those three teams? Stuck?

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Speaker 4: Tell me Arkansas, Kentucky and the City State are the

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Speaker 4: two teams in our backyard. And then the boys down

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Speaker 4: in Stark Vegas. And then we'll also at Texas, Georgia, Alabama, LSU,

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Speaker 4: Texas A and M. In part two, we'll do Florida, Auburn, Ole,

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Speaker 4: miss Ou, South Carolina, Tennessee, Missouri, and Vanderbilt. Quick reminder

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Speaker 4: Watch Party, Windy City Watch Party. We'll be at Joe's

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Speaker 4: in Chicago on the twenty third for Week zero doors

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Speaker 4: opening at eleven Drinks on me. Just get there, you

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Speaker 4: don't have to RSVP. Look forward to seeing some of

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Speaker 4: you guys there. We'll sweat some games for Week zero.

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Speaker 4: We also have like a fantasy football event with Kerner

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Speaker 4: and Ray Bob and myself, Duck Freeze Colin will be there,

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Speaker 4: Producer e Stoorna, Maatt Mitchell as well. All right, so

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Speaker 4: let's let's jump right into it. Let's start with your hogs.

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Speaker 4: Oh boy, within total you can find over five minus

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Speaker 4: one twenty out there if you want to go over.

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Speaker 4: They are one hundred and fifty to one to win

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Speaker 4: the conference, twenty two to one to make the college

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Speaker 4: football playoff. And there's a lot of uncertainty with this

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Speaker 4: Arkansas team. This is your specialty, so I won't say

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Speaker 4: too much. I kind of lean on you for what's

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Speaker 4: going on with Arkansas. I mean the offense lost a lot,

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Speaker 4: top four receivers, best tight end, three starting offensive linemen

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Speaker 4: or running back to the NFL. They are crushed by

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Speaker 4: the portal again. I mean five starters left from the offense.

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Speaker 4: D lost six to their top seven d backs, five

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Speaker 4: of the top six defensive linemen. Linebackers look in okay shape,

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Speaker 4: and then you know you do have your quarterback back.

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Speaker 4: It's Patrino year two. Maybe there's a bump there. Oh wait,

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Speaker 4: it's one of the five artist schedules in the country.

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Speaker 4: Your SEC road games are lu Texas, Tennessee and Ole Miss.

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Speaker 4: You also play Notre Dame and you're at Memphis in

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Speaker 4: the non com which won't be easy. You better win

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Speaker 4: that game against Arkansas State in Little Rock. Otherwise Pittman

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Speaker 4: not making it back to Fayetteville. So it's a brutal,

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Speaker 4: brutal schedule. Not many games outside of the first two

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Speaker 4: weeks where you're like, okay, feel comfortable. Is this team

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Speaker 4: going bowling or is it all going to shit?

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Speaker 2: Whoo pick suy absolute dumpster fined dumps fine. I don't

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Speaker 2: know how we win a game the rest of the year,

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Speaker 2: just following program up. Give us a death sentence.

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Speaker 1: Collins talking razorback football.

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Speaker 2: So let me talk about my razor bests. Let's talk

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Speaker 2: about Arkansas Real quick, because I could go through the

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Speaker 2: entire roster and we could talk about how they grade out.

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Speaker 2: It's kind of how we do a lot of team previews.

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Speaker 2: But because I'm so close to this team, and when

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Speaker 2: I say I'm so close to the team, I have

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Speaker 2: eyes and ears in the locker room. And so for

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Speaker 2: the rival local guy that likes to call me out

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Speaker 2: and make articles say I don't know what I'm talking about,

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Speaker 2: I do know what I'm talking about. And the coaches

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Speaker 2: aren't going to tell you the truth, but my sources

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Speaker 2: are going to tell me the truth. This team are.

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Speaker 2: There's a lot of things I like about them. Taylor

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Speaker 2: Green showed up to camp the other day with fifteen

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Speaker 2: extra pounds of muscle. Does that mean that he can

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Speaker 2: run the RPO? I have no clue. The decision making

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Speaker 2: in the RPO has been a problem. His best play

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Speaker 2: is to roll out and make shit happen. The kind

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Speaker 2: of the problem with that is is Omega Blake comes

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Speaker 2: over from Charlotte, the transfer wide receiver comes in fifty

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Speaker 2: eight targets at Charlotte three point three yards per route run.

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Speaker 2: He is turning heads. I'm gonna be so nice about

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Speaker 2: the Arkansas players and then I'm gonna take a dump

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Speaker 2: on my own team. Three point three yards per out run.

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Speaker 2: Omega Blake is a name you need to know you're

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Speaker 2: playing fantasy college football. Dude. The stud Taylor saw one

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Speaker 2: hundred and seventy seven pressures this year. I think that

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Speaker 2: gets a little bit better. Corey Robinson transfers in a

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Speaker 2: blind side tackle thirty six games in three years at

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Speaker 2: Georgia Tech. I thought, well, they went out and got

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Speaker 2: themselves a blind side tackle because they want to take Carmona.

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Speaker 2: They want to came into the guard. Makes complete sense.

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Speaker 2: So and Carmona likes to kick people when they're on

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Speaker 2: the ground. So Corey Robinson, after I looked it up

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Speaker 2: in PFF, he actually ranks as the third best tackle

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Speaker 2: in all of college football and pass blocking. This is

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Speaker 2: a huge, huge addition for Arkansas and trying to protect Taylor.

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Speaker 2: So there are things that I like. I like center

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Speaker 2: Cayden Kintler coming in after eleven starts at UCF. He

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Speaker 2: finished fifty fourth in all centers for tackle, for blocking

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Speaker 2: and per PFF. So there are things about this offense

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Speaker 2: that I like.

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Speaker 4: One hundred and seventy career starts on the offensive line,

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Speaker 4: and yeah, I mean there's a lot moving around, but

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Speaker 4: if there's some potential here for the offensive line to

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Speaker 4: be decent.

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Speaker 2: When we lost Cutis to Ole Miss, it was kind

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Speaker 2: of like oh boy, culture, oh boy, Pittman, oh boy,

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Speaker 2: and a lot of that is still around. And the defense,

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Speaker 2: I think when we talk about that, like the defensive line,

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Speaker 2: let me tell you what's going on with Walmart and

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Speaker 2: Tyson Foods. Walmart is in my backyard and Tyson Foods

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Speaker 2: is in my backyard, and they're paying this football team

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Speaker 2: just enough to get their damn paint on the field.

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Speaker 2: They don't give shit about getting players into this squad

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Speaker 2: because this defensive line will have you set the over under.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna put it nine and a half sacks. I'm serious,

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Speaker 2: for the entire season. I think our defensive line gets

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Speaker 2: nine and a half sacks this year. This is a

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Speaker 2: very high. It's a very bad defensive line when it

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Speaker 2: comes to creating pressure. That being said, Cameron Ball is

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Speaker 2: a guy in the middle. It's gonna be able to

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Speaker 2: stop the run. Sorry, is a good enough linebacker. I

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Speaker 2: think they're gonna be Okay, it's the run the past. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: the pass defense is gonna be horrific. Yeah, Stephen Dix

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Speaker 2: is they're good tacklers, They're gonna be They're gonna be Okay,

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Speaker 2: it's run, but the pass is gonna be bad.

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Speaker 4: Secondary is not getting any pressure.

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Speaker 2: No, they're not gonna get any pressure at all. I

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Speaker 2: think nine and a half. You're right, sacks might be high.

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Speaker 2: Let's talk about off the field, because I make this

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Speaker 2: number four point seven. I came out and said, I'm

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Speaker 2: going under five and a half. If Taylan shows up

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Speaker 2: and he knows how to run the rpo, if Omega

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Speaker 2: Blake is as good as as I'm seeing, and Mike

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Speaker 2: Washington at running back for Buffalo, he is also cracking

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Speaker 2: heads in camp right now, it all sounds good on paper,

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Speaker 2: but let me tell you a little story about how

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Speaker 2: Sam Pittman was not going to be the head coach

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Speaker 2: of this team this year. He asked for his buyout

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Speaker 2: to only be half, and he said he would walk

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Speaker 2: away and retire from the program and tell Hunter Yurchik,

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Speaker 2: you can do whatever you want, hire anyone you want.

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Speaker 2: That's when Sam Pittman's agent got involved and said, no,

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Speaker 2: we'll take the full buyout, and then nothing happens. Sam

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Speaker 2: Pittman is still the coach. Everybody knows that buyout decreases

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Speaker 2: maximum at the end of this year, and he doesn't

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Speaker 2: get a bonus if he doesn't get the five wins,

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Speaker 2: and this season could be over faster than we know

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Speaker 2: if there aren't wins put up on the board. Pittman

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Speaker 2: was absolutely ready to be retired. He's still ready to

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Speaker 2: be retired. I don't think he's going to be our

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Speaker 2: coach come December seventh. And yesterday, per my source, Travis

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Speaker 2: Williams and Bobby Petrino almost got into a fist fight

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Speaker 2: on the field. These two have had a very good

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Speaker 2: working relationship is offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator for a

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Speaker 2: couple of years now. And apparently the defense was roughing

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Speaker 2: up tailor and roughing up a couple of offensive players,

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Speaker 2: and Bobby Patrino said, get the fuck off my players

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Speaker 2: and quit tackling, and Travis Williams said, you coach your

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Speaker 2: fucking guys, and I'll coach my fucking guys. And Bobby

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Speaker 2: Patrino said, do you want to fucking go right now?

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Speaker 2: Let's take this. Let's go right now, And Travis Williams said, sure,

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Speaker 2: let's go right now, and they were trying to fight

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Speaker 2: each other.

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Speaker 4: I'm not in with another neck brace. Did that happen?

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Speaker 2: Bobby Patrino is trying to fight Travis Williams. You're gonna lose, right,

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Speaker 2: I give Travis Williams some Mayweather odds like minus twelve hundred.

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Speaker 2: Things are crispy. Right now. Everything was going.

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Speaker 4: Perfectly, and then what do I see but Captain Arkansas.

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Speaker 2: Look what happens? Everything gets the nil. Money's not coming

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Speaker 2: in like it should. It's going to baseball and basketball.

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Speaker 2: Everybody knows that this is a lass rass Swan song.

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Speaker 2: Taylor's trying to show something for NFL. Sam Peman knows

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Speaker 2: that he's retiring at the end of the season. No

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Speaker 2: matter what, I do like a mega Blake, I do

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Speaker 2: like tailor. I do love the addition of Corey Robinson

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Speaker 2: at the blindside tackle. I do think we will be

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Speaker 2: able to defend the run. We will get no pressure

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Speaker 2: and teams will consistently beat us. Will we be tough

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Speaker 2: in the opening slate? We'll be tough against Ole Miss.

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Speaker 2: I think Memphis. If we lose to Memphis, the season

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Speaker 2: could be over right there. You might lose the locker

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Speaker 2: room Notre Dame has the offensive line of the defensive

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Speaker 2: line to crush us. So I think we come out

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Speaker 2: with a lot of fire, and I think you hear

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Speaker 2: a lot of positives about the names that I've mentioned,

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Speaker 2: But long term, this is an under five and a

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Speaker 2: half play and this is a coaching staff that is

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Speaker 2: ready to dismantle and not be around each other at all.

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Speaker 4: Well, I can't believe I'm saying this, but I'm higher

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Speaker 4: than narkotsas I'm higher in rctstall than you. We need

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Speaker 4: to be tough, consistent.

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Speaker 1: Our focus is to embrace the hog with pride.

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Speaker 4: But I project five point two five. I'm you're still

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Speaker 4: under it's a pass for me. It's under nothing based

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Speaker 4: on what you're saying, And this could all fall apart quickly,

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Speaker 4: like there's a lot of downside risk with this Arkansas team.

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Speaker 4: In the schedule is brutal. We'll be talking plenty more

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Speaker 4: Hawks throughout the season. Let's move on to the Cats Kentucky.

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Speaker 1: The Kentucky Wildcats.

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Speaker 4: After a very disappointing four and eight season where just

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Speaker 4: like everything went wrong, they're three hundred to one to

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Speaker 4: win the league's best you can find out there forty

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Speaker 4: to one to make the college wall playoff over four

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Speaker 4: and a half even money, I think is the best

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Speaker 4: out there if you want to go over so win

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Speaker 4: totals sitting at around four and a half. I mean,

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Speaker 4: and now there's so much new. I mean, sixty three

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Speaker 4: percent of the new offensive of the offensive personnel is

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Speaker 4: brand new, brand new players into the team. That includes

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Speaker 4: Zach Calesada, who's was around pre COVID.

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Speaker 2: Are you kidding me?

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Speaker 4: Who kids this shit?

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Speaker 2: We have Zach coles Ota. I'm never beten Zach calls

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Speaker 2: out again.

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Speaker 4: I for god, I.

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Speaker 2: Let me ask you questions you're going through this? Are

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Speaker 2: you are you taking the Zach coles out of tammouve

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Speaker 2: or Texas A and M version. Are you taking the

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Speaker 2: end current word numbers and applying them to Kentucky's numbers?

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Speaker 2: That that's the biggest problem with me with this projection.

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Speaker 4: Somewhere in the middle part of that also has to

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Speaker 4: do with what's around them. I mean, the weapons aren't great.

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Speaker 4: The big question is did they rebuild the offensive line.

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Speaker 4: There's a ton of starts, one hundred and seventy crew starts.

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Speaker 4: You bring in a couple some transfers. I'm not sure,

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Speaker 4: how good they are. Howbout Brown from Arkansas? He's gonna

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Speaker 4: be the starting guard. He's good, right, he is good?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we lost him.

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Speaker 4: He's the one guy I feel comfortable that they're like

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Speaker 4: kicking Burton back to center. That was a disaster in

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Speaker 4: twenty twenty three. He couldn't snap the ball. We'll see

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Speaker 4: how that works out. So maybe the big Blue walls back.

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Speaker 4: It's going to have to be and they're gonna have

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Speaker 4: to try to get this run game going. It's gonna

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Speaker 4: be dal Dell and the gall and the two transfers

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Speaker 4: that are probably going to get the line sheriff carries.

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Speaker 4: But do I have full faith and calls out on

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Speaker 4: this offense. Not really. It's gonna have to be the

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Speaker 4: defense that picks it up. It was a down year

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Speaker 4: for the defense and Brad White, I mean, and they

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Speaker 4: lost a lot. They're defensive line, they lost the time,

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Speaker 4: and they bring in some transfers that I like, particularly

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Speaker 4: David Gusta from Washington State. But Kentucky has said the linebackers. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: there's there's definitely some questions on this defense. You're gonna

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Speaker 4: need Rainer, you know, and you're gonna eat Rayner in

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Speaker 4: Aafari to step up Brian and love it. They have experience,

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Speaker 4: but they're gonna need me much better. I assume it's

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Speaker 4: gonna be hard Away and Waller and Waller was disappointing

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Speaker 4: in this first year, but they had good length that

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Speaker 4: there's some experience on this d but there's I think

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Speaker 4: there's more questions than answers, and they have to be better.

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Speaker 4: This is a Kentucky defense. They shouldn't be one hundred

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Speaker 4: and twenty six in explosive passing allow that's like everything

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Speaker 4: that's not the Kentucky defense. It's just supposed to take

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Speaker 4: away explosive place. Yep, very very not UK like last year.

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Speaker 4: So I don't have a ton of faith in this team.

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Speaker 4: The problem is, I mean the schedule, there's so much new,

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Speaker 4: so it's it could go a couple of different ways and

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Speaker 4: Stoop sometimes he has no expectations, does his best. I'm

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Speaker 4: sure we'll probably pull off an upset, but it wouldn't

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Speaker 4: shock me if they also, like lost to Toledo in

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Speaker 4: week one. The schedule is brutal. One of the ten

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Speaker 4: hardest in the country said, if everything goes well and

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Speaker 4: Kaalsada plays well, then maybe they flirt with a bowl.

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Speaker 4: My numbers say to go, let's see I project four

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Speaker 4: point eighty six, So like I would lean over here,

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Speaker 4: But vibes are off with the program. The depth is

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Speaker 4: very young at a lot of places. Not a Kalsata

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Speaker 4: guy could also just go south. And if they're if

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Speaker 4: it's a bad year, just like Arkansas, things could go

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Speaker 4: south very very quickly. By the way, they're two and

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Speaker 4: twelve in the last fourteen SEC home games. That is

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Speaker 4: just unacceptable. It doesn't get much easier this year. So

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Speaker 4: numbers leaned slightly over. I'm going to try to get

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Speaker 4: some more intel on how this is going minor through fall.

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Speaker 4: Just the vibes seem off to me. It's a pass.

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Speaker 4: Do you have any thoughts on Kentucky?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? Actually I like them more than everybody else. And

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Speaker 2: it's because of these Zach Calzada numbers and the hardest

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Speaker 2: thing about the transfer portal and taking these numbers and

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Speaker 2: applying them, saying Zack Calzada's numbers an incarnate word. You

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Speaker 2: have to like pull back the curtain and look a

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Speaker 2: little bit deeper into the numbers. And so what I

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Speaker 2: like to do with quarterbacks like Zach Calzada was he

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Speaker 2: just couldn't do anything with pressure whatsoever, Like he didn't

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Speaker 2: have an offensive line that was keeping him uh clean

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Speaker 2: at Texas A and M. So he goes to ennercarnate Word.

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Speaker 2: He faces pressure again, what can he do with it?

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Speaker 2: So if pressure is a measurement, measurement twelve point two

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Speaker 2: percent turnover worthy play rate with pressure adding carnate word

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Speaker 2: and twenty twenty three, did he take a step forward

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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty four, Yes he did. He had one

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Speaker 2: hundred and forty seven dropbacks last season with pressure, and

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Speaker 2: he trimmed twelve point two percent turnover worthy play with

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Speaker 2: pressure down to four point five percent. That is a

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Speaker 2: massive trim And it would seem to me that in

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Speaker 2: you know, it's not a different team in the same program,

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Speaker 2: in the same system. He was able to map massively

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Speaker 2: shave his mistakes in a pressure pocket over the past season.

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Speaker 2: That makes me a believer in his numbers fifty four

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Speaker 2: to thirty two, big time throws to turn o worth

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Speaker 2: he plays two years at Incarnate Word. I project the

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Speaker 2: offense to be a lot better than everybody else because

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Speaker 2: I believe it.

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Speaker 4: Gillmore too, Gilmore from Nebraska, who was like got kicked

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Speaker 4: off the team. I think right yeah, and he could

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Speaker 4: actually contribute.

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Speaker 2: I think I'm in the camp with you on the

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Speaker 2: offense that I would like to hear Kawzada thriving in

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Speaker 2: camp before we lead up to Toledo. I'd like to

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Speaker 2: see some positivity with what Kawzad is able to do

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Speaker 2: in practice. I want to hear clean pack practice reports.

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Speaker 2: You know you're right on the schedule. Not a lot

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Speaker 2: of breaks here. Can Kentucky get a win at South Carolina?

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Speaker 2: I mean that was a pretty big upset last year.

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Speaker 2: Stoops is twelve and six against the spread after a

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Speaker 2: bye week. He does really well with time since twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty one, So that is a spot where they could

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Speaker 2: have an upset against South Carolina depending on what your

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Speaker 2: number is. So I do think there's an avenue to

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Speaker 2: get to a bowl, but we need positive play from

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Speaker 2: Kalsada with pressure. We need some playmakers to kind of return.

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Speaker 2: Is Kentucky as bad as last year?

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Speaker 4: I'm not sure, hard to be a bit worse than

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Speaker 4: last year. That's not Mississippi State out here. Before we

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Speaker 4: get to the Big Boys. I got a fever and

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Speaker 4: the only prescription is Mark Cabell. Mississippi State coming off

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Speaker 4: of a two to ten season. They're over best you

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Speaker 4: can find out. They were over over three and a

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Speaker 4: half minus one fifty five, so the wind total sitting

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Speaker 4: in right about four. They're I mean, they're not going

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Speaker 4: to the playoff five hundred to one to win the conference.

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Speaker 4: Is this a team they did? I mean, look their

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Speaker 4: top thirty portal class, top thirty recruiting shaping. He's back

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Speaker 4: a quarterback. You hope that he stays healthy. They lost

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Speaker 4: their receivers, but they brought in a ton. They brought

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Speaker 4: an eight transfer wide receivers. I think they have some

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Speaker 4: talent there and I like some of the guys that

341
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Speaker 4: they brought Bluff yeah, fluff bothwell in the backfield as well.

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Speaker 4: I mean, Mississpi State should be better. It's year two

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Speaker 4: for Levy. It's the play caller, the beer and shoot.

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Speaker 4: They also switch defensive schemes last year, so there's a

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Speaker 4: lot of change. You got chapin back presumably healthy at quarterback,

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Speaker 4: so you would think that they should be better. I

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Speaker 4: just think that they're too far away to make that

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Speaker 4: big of a jump because of the play in the trenches. Now,

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Speaker 4: maybe the offensive line is a little bit better. Maybe

350
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Speaker 4: the defensive line is a little bit better, but I

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Speaker 4: don't think there's going to be a material difference. And

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Speaker 4: that was what really that was really glaring last year

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Speaker 4: in SEC play. I mean, look, they only had ten

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Speaker 4: sacks last year. They cleared your nine and a half runner,

355
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Speaker 4: that's it. They allowed thirty eight. That's it all with

356
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Speaker 4: this team. So there's some things to be a little

357
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Speaker 4: bit more optimistic about. I mean, top thirty returning production,

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Speaker 4: top thirty transfer portal class, top thirty recruiting class, shaping

359
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Speaker 4: back a quarterback year two of these schemes and staff.

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Speaker 4: But then you say, okay, getting excited here a little bit.

361
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Speaker 4: I kind of that that gets dampened a bit once

362
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Speaker 4: I start digging into the trenches some parts of the secondary.

363
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Speaker 4: And then you look at the schedule. Ah, I mean

364
00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:17,840
Speaker 4: it's brutal. They have home games against Arizona State, Texas, Georgia,

365
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Speaker 4: and Tennessee. Those are their home games. Those four teams

366
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Speaker 4: don't not a playoff last year. Oh yeah, and plus

367
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Speaker 4: Ole miss who easily could have those are your home games. Uh,

368
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Speaker 4: your SEC road games are Florida, Arkansas, Missouri and Texas

369
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Speaker 4: A and M I think you would have much rather

370
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Speaker 4: had Arkansas at home.

371
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Speaker 2: So are you ruling out what could happen in week one?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, they could lose at Southern Miss. That's definitely not

373
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Speaker 4: a gimme. Alcorn State is a gimme. I think NIU

374
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Speaker 4: is close to a gimme at home. So but if

375
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Speaker 4: they do beat Southern Mess, which is in a gimme,

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Speaker 4: especially with like all the all the change is just

377
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Speaker 4: week one uncertainty down in Hattiesburg. Yeah, but say they

378
00:19:01,359 --> 00:19:06,360
Speaker 4: get that win and they get NIU and they get

379
00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:10,600
Speaker 4: and they get al Corn State, maybe they can get

380
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Speaker 4: Arizona State a run in week two, but definitely gonna

381
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Speaker 4: be dogs. Where in the SEC player, are you like, Okay,

382
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Speaker 4: I feel confident they can get to win there now.

383
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Speaker 4: I think they probably steal one. Where is it? I

384
00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:27,440
Speaker 4: don't know, I mean it's is it Tennessee at home?

385
00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:31,600
Speaker 4: Then the rest is at A and M at Florida,

386
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Speaker 4: Texas at Arkansas. Maybe it's at Arkansas if they quit

387
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Speaker 4: late in the year, then Georgia at Missouri Ole Miss.

388
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Speaker 4: The crazy things happened in the Egg Bowl maybe, so

389
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Speaker 4: it's like I think that they probably get the four wins.

390
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Speaker 4: But and my projection is like four point two five

391
00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:58,480
Speaker 4: not enough for me to go over. And I still

392
00:19:58,480 --> 00:20:01,240
Speaker 4: have a lot of questions about the trenches and some

393
00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:03,800
Speaker 4: depth in certain places which could really come into play

394
00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:09,760
Speaker 4: as the season progresses. Although with your quarterback back decent

395
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Speaker 4: returning production. This is all about how many games they

396
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Speaker 4: can win in the first five. I think, like the

397
00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:19,520
Speaker 4: first five weeks, can you pull an upset against Arizona

398
00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:22,440
Speaker 4: State or Tennessee? Can you take care of business against

399
00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:25,720
Speaker 4: Southern miss, Alcorn State and an IU. If you do,

400
00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:31,640
Speaker 4: you know you have four wins in the first five weeks,

401
00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:35,800
Speaker 4: and you're feeling good about yourself. There's some momentum, and

402
00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:38,280
Speaker 4: then by the way, you already clear the wind total.

403
00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:41,080
Speaker 4: The rest of the season gets tougher, but maybe the

404
00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:42,520
Speaker 4: vibes are good if you lose one of those. If

405
00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:46,360
Speaker 4: you get upset by like Southern Miss and you start

406
00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:50,199
Speaker 4: you don't beat Arizona State, you don't beat Tennessee, and

407
00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:55,040
Speaker 4: you're sitting there at two and three headed into that

408
00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:57,400
Speaker 4: rest of that schedule, it's gonna be tough to get

409
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Speaker 4: to four. This is all about the first five. I

410
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Speaker 4: show a little bit of ie on the over I

411
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Speaker 4: think it was this get hit a little bit early?

412
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Speaker 4: I think that was a sharp move, But I'm not

413
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Speaker 4: too confident and not something I want to put my

414
00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:12,560
Speaker 4: money behind. So this is a pass for me, miss

415
00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:14,640
Speaker 4: Cippy State. But there's some things to get a little

416
00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:15,880
Speaker 4: bit more excited about this year.

417
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Speaker 2: In year two for Levy, I'm at four point four,

418
00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:20,480
Speaker 2: so I agree with you that the projection should be over.

419
00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:23,520
Speaker 2: I agree with you that they should get the four wins.

420
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Speaker 2: There's a lot of juice on that three and a half.

421
00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:27,760
Speaker 2: I think that was the right move with this team.

422
00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:29,720
Speaker 2: Why am I not putting my.

423
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Speaker 4: Money on it?

424
00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:34,960
Speaker 2: Blake shape and needs a clean pocket. We've known that

425
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Speaker 2: every stop that he's been at. The five transfers that

426
00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:39,040
Speaker 2: are coming in are bringing ninety one starts to the

427
00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:42,240
Speaker 2: offensive line, but let's specifically call out left tackle Blake Steam.

428
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Speaker 2: His numbers at Virginia were replacement level, which means mediocre

429
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:51,200
Speaker 2: replacement level for FBS football, But late in the season

430
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Speaker 2: he got the chance to go up against a Notre

431
00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:55,479
Speaker 2: Dame in SMU and in those two games he allowed

432
00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:59,120
Speaker 2: ten pressures. You're facing the best edges in the nation

433
00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:03,480
Speaker 2: every single week in the SEC. I can't back a

434
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:06,760
Speaker 2: team where a blindside tackle is allowing five pressures a game.

435
00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:09,960
Speaker 2: That is one of the sole reasons. So with Mississippi State,

436
00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:13,600
Speaker 2: every single SEC game, I project a minimum of a

437
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:15,560
Speaker 2: maybe a ten point underdog. I mean even I've got

438
00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:18,000
Speaker 2: Arkansas a little bit over a TD against them, which

439
00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:21,000
Speaker 2: still I don't know Arkansas's head's going to be in it.

440
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:22,879
Speaker 2: I know we're going to talk about Missouri. I'm not

441
00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:24,119
Speaker 2: sure where they're going to be at the end of

442
00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:26,200
Speaker 2: the season. And damn well know and the Egg Bowl,

443
00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:28,360
Speaker 2: anything can happen. And if Lane's not making the playoff,

444
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:31,119
Speaker 2: where's you know, where's the focus of that team. So

445
00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:33,600
Speaker 2: there are chances for Mississippi State, and I think four

446
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:34,399
Speaker 2: is the correct number.

447
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:37,440
Speaker 4: All right, let's get to the big boys. Now, let's

448
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:41,159
Speaker 4: start with Georgia.

449
00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:44,800
Speaker 1: Georgia, the Georgia Bulldogs.

450
00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:50,520
Speaker 4: Georgia Georgia win total. If you want to go over

451
00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:52,119
Speaker 4: best of you've find over nine and a half minus

452
00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:55,400
Speaker 4: one seventy. So the win total with juice is sitting

453
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:58,520
Speaker 4: a little over ten. Make the playoff minus two sixty

454
00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:01,679
Speaker 4: five to win in the conference. Best number out there

455
00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:04,560
Speaker 4: is plus three seventy five. I think they're doing it.

456
00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:07,440
Speaker 4: Right the way that they're building there. I mean, look,

457
00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:10,960
Speaker 4: it's this wasn't the greatest portal class this Georgia continues

458
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:13,800
Speaker 4: to just have talent and get talent. Number two recruiting class.

459
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 4: They still had a top twenty five portal class, but

460
00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:19,239
Speaker 4: it definitely wasn't a emphasis where they're going in and

461
00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:21,840
Speaker 4: just trying to build a portal team. Kirby continues to

462
00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 4: build a program, not just a team. Year in and

463
00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:26,360
Speaker 4: year out. They did. I think they did a better

464
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:29,040
Speaker 4: job in the portal this year with some of their additions.

465
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 4: It's particularly out wide receiver going and get Noah Thomas

466
00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:35,760
Speaker 4: going and getting Zachari Branch. I think there's I know

467
00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:37,479
Speaker 4: they've lost two receivers of the NFL, but I think

468
00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:41,840
Speaker 4: this wide receiver room is better. The offensive line lost

469
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:45,720
Speaker 4: three to the NFL. It was just perplexed that they

470
00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:48,440
Speaker 4: could never run the ball last year. It could get

471
00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:52,480
Speaker 4: any push. There's experience here with Bobo, you know, Freeling

472
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:55,600
Speaker 4: Green and we'll see it, you know, Michael Morris who

473
00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:59,800
Speaker 4: actually like so this offense has potential. If the quarterback

474
00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:02,360
Speaker 4: and that's the big question here, it's Gunner Stockton. Who

475
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:04,840
Speaker 4: is he? What's his ceiling. Just like a lot of

476
00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:07,320
Speaker 4: these teams, these elite teams, the top.

477
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:09,040
Speaker 2: Is his ceiling above Carson Beck's floor.

478
00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:12,239
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's a question. We didn't see Bochs last year.

479
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:15,320
Speaker 4: We know you can run a little bit more or like,

480
00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:17,639
Speaker 4: is he going to lose his job to plug lesi

481
00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:21,800
Speaker 4: Orton not win the job. We'll see. But that's the

482
00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:23,680
Speaker 4: biggest question with a lot of these teams. We talked

483
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:27,320
Speaker 4: about with Ohio State, Oregon, We'll talk about it with Alabama.

484
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:31,359
Speaker 4: A lot of these teams in the top ten. The

485
00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:34,640
Speaker 4: question is whose quarterback is going to be the guy

486
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:37,720
Speaker 4: to where they can compete for national championship and who's

487
00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:41,040
Speaker 4: going to flop where they can't get to that ceiling.

488
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:43,359
Speaker 4: We know Georgia, I mean, last year was a disappointing year.

489
00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:44,760
Speaker 4: They still won the SEC, they still went to the

490
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:47,359
Speaker 4: Collegeball playoff, they still almost made a run of the

491
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:50,479
Speaker 4: national title. Eave another quarterback got hurt. This team's going

492
00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:54,240
Speaker 4: to be really good. They're not really starting any transfers

493
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:56,600
Speaker 4: outside of the two receivers I just mentioned, but this

494
00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:58,439
Speaker 4: is all about the quarterback and then just how that

495
00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:01,560
Speaker 4: talent continues to develop. Obviously, this team lost a ton

496
00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:04,040
Speaker 4: to the NFL, as they always do. But I think

497
00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:05,879
Speaker 4: they just need to find an elite pass rush to

498
00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:08,480
Speaker 4: emerge that was kind of missing last year. Need a

499
00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:12,840
Speaker 4: better rushing attack, especially just to help out Stockton or

500
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:15,639
Speaker 4: pug Leasi. The one good thing with Georgia though, is

501
00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:18,159
Speaker 4: that I mean because look, they had fifteen players from

502
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:21,159
Speaker 4: last year. Last year's team are on NFL rosters, but

503
00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:24,120
Speaker 4: there's five stars. There's probably be freshman that emerge here

504
00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:25,840
Speaker 4: all over the place that you could look at the

505
00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:27,640
Speaker 4: linebacker room. They lost two to the NFL, but look

506
00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:30,080
Speaker 4: how much talent still in that room when you look

507
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:32,240
Speaker 4: at this team. Though. One good thing I'll mention we

508
00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:35,760
Speaker 4: just mentioned pug least there's not much of a drop

509
00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:39,840
Speaker 4: off like power ratings wise, so they have that going

510
00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:42,560
Speaker 4: for them if there is an injury. Because in the SEC,

511
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:45,960
Speaker 4: like if I had to separate the SEC teams from

512
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:50,920
Speaker 4: quarterback to backup, Diego Pabya to his backup is a disaster.

513
00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:54,479
Speaker 4: It's like a touchdown. The backup is not as good.

514
00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:57,640
Speaker 4: But Pobby is like their entire offense, like Taylor and Green,

515
00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:01,200
Speaker 4: right yeah, Green is probably like who's their backup? Right now?

516
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:03,480
Speaker 2: It was going to be mad in I MLA. It's

517
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:05,000
Speaker 2: it's it's a collection of freshmen.

518
00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:08,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, probably like four points Simmons for Ole miss maybe

519
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:12,480
Speaker 4: like a field goal shapen because Van Buren left shapen

520
00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:16,560
Speaker 4: is like a field goal plus materr Nuss nus Myer.

521
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:19,920
Speaker 4: You have like four four or five points. Lagway, yeah,

522
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:23,600
Speaker 4: five ish points, Manning four to five points, although we

523
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:28,600
Speaker 4: still don't know Sellers five to six points. Yep. So

524
00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:32,400
Speaker 4: all those guys are like you're making a substantial adjustment

525
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 4: to the power. I think they get hurt, whereas Kentucky, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Missouri,

526
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:43,240
Speaker 4: there's not much a drop much of a drop off,

527
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:44,679
Speaker 4: So like if they just keep that in mind, if

528
00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:46,520
Speaker 4: there's a quarterback intries, so think you have that going forward.

529
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:48,960
Speaker 4: They're not completely reliant on like if Meyer gets hurt

530
00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:52,160
Speaker 4: or Sellers gets hurt, or Poppy gets hurt or Blagway.

531
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:54,960
Speaker 4: Those injuries are big, like there their seasons are over

532
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 4: as far as like reaching their ceilings. So just keep

533
00:26:57,840 --> 00:27:02,480
Speaker 4: that in mind. From a scheduling prospective, Georgia place six

534
00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:08,640
Speaker 4: of the top ten in the SEC. It's definitely a

535
00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 4: you know, not an easy schedule, but look at their

536
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:15,399
Speaker 4: road schedule. They only have three true SEC road games

537
00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:18,720
Speaker 4: at Tennessee early I think, which I think is good

538
00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:23,520
Speaker 4: Tennessee's We'll get to them. There's a lot changing. They're

539
00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:27,480
Speaker 4: at Mississippi State and they're at Auburn, which is a

540
00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:30,040
Speaker 4: tough spot. But they do play a neutral against Georgia

541
00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:32,600
Speaker 4: Tech and then obviously the neutral against Florida. A lot

542
00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:35,560
Speaker 4: of the big boys come to Athens between the hedges.

543
00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:42,040
Speaker 4: You got Bama, Ole, mess Texas all coming to Athens.

544
00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:45,280
Speaker 4: And guess what, Georgia hasn't lost at home in five years.

545
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:47,200
Speaker 3: These guys are so resilient.

546
00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:48,399
Speaker 4: We talked about intent.

547
00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:50,520
Speaker 3: What was our intent when we walked on the field.

548
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:53,040
Speaker 3: Arn Tent was not to take pictures, not to do

549
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:56,280
Speaker 3: all the superstar stuff. Iron Tent was to eat. Barn

550
00:27:56,320 --> 00:27:59,119
Speaker 3: Tent was to come eat and be hungry. I'm not

551
00:27:59,200 --> 00:27:59,840
Speaker 3: interested in all the.

552
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:06,960
Speaker 4: I project nine to seven, so I'm I slightly lean

553
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 4: under if I had a guess, so they probably get

554
00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:12,120
Speaker 4: the ten and two, but I would not go over

555
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:14,840
Speaker 4: nine and a half at minus one seventy. There's a

556
00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:17,680
Speaker 4: lot of chaos in the SEC. Whereas like I wouldn't

557
00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:21,760
Speaker 4: be shocked if like a Georgia or Alabama or Texas

558
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:24,399
Speaker 4: missed the College twelve playoff. I don't think all of

559
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:27,240
Speaker 4: them would. But if like the quarterback position doesn't work out.

560
00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:30,320
Speaker 4: Alabama has a stack defense, they bring a ton back

561
00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:33,600
Speaker 4: of Texas. Like Texas and Georgia, they're close to the

562
00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:35,679
Speaker 4: hundredth and returning productions a lot of new pieces, and

563
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:37,920
Speaker 4: if the quarterback doesn't work, like you could, they could

564
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:40,520
Speaker 4: end up with nine wins. Maybe if FLOORA falls out,

565
00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:45,480
Speaker 4: they'd end up with eight. So, uh, Georgia at minus

566
00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 4: two sixty five for the playoff? Oh thanks, no, no, not so,

567
00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:51,920
Speaker 4: but it's a past me. I would lean under if

568
00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:54,320
Speaker 4: if they can, if it takes money and gets a

569
00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:58,040
Speaker 4: little cheaper, I might go under. But I project nine

570
00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:00,400
Speaker 4: point seven and they're implied wind total. It's like ten

571
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:02,240
Speaker 4: to one ten two. I think it's a little high.

572
00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:03,400
Speaker 4: What are your thoughts on the dogs?

573
00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:05,000
Speaker 2: Well, I think under nine and a half. Like what

574
00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:07,240
Speaker 2: plus one forty to not make the playoff is? What

575
00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:10,160
Speaker 2: is it? Plus two hundred somewhere around there. It's like,

576
00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 2: that's what you're betting. You're betting on a nine win season.

577
00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:17,560
Speaker 2: I think you're absolutely on the right track. Is exactly

578
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:19,440
Speaker 2: where I am. I'm at nine point four on the

579
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:22,840
Speaker 2: Georgia Bulldogs. Do I believe in the Mike Bobo offense

580
00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:25,280
Speaker 2: with a running quarterback? I mean, I think you're right.

581
00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 2: If Gunner Stockton gets hurt and we have to go

582
00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:28,520
Speaker 2: to a backup, I don't think it's any kind of drop.

583
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:31,040
Speaker 2: There's no power rating move or anything like that. I

584
00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 2: think it's interesting that they did not go after a

585
00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:36,040
Speaker 2: quarterback in the portal after Carson Beck's departure. So I

586
00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:38,760
Speaker 2: think it's interesting that Gunner Stockton never overtook Carson Beck.

587
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:41,080
Speaker 2: What if they been holding back this entire time. I

588
00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 2: would really like to know, because Stockton didn't do well

589
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:46,320
Speaker 2: with pressure and what we did see, he's been praised

590
00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:48,920
Speaker 2: for his ability to detect pressure. We'll see how that

591
00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:52,320
Speaker 2: plays out this year. The offensive line returns thirty five starts,

592
00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:54,479
Speaker 2: but they're one hundred and tenth in FBS. There were

593
00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 2: issues in last year's squad. They were ninety six in

594
00:29:56,720 --> 00:29:59,840
Speaker 2: line yards from this Georgia offense. That's not a good number.

595
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:02,200
Speaker 2: Running Back Nate Frasier just two point eight yards after

596
00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:05,959
Speaker 2: first contact. That's not expected from a Georgia running back either. Now,

597
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:08,200
Speaker 2: Kirby Smart came out last year about the defensive side

598
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:10,840
Speaker 2: and said the most crucial player to the twenty twenty

599
00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:13,160
Speaker 2: four defense was kJ Bolden. That their season would live

600
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 2: and die on kJ Bolden. He had one I in teen,

601
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:18,400
Speaker 2: he had one PBu. I know he was a true freshman,

602
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:20,880
Speaker 2: but there was some pressure put on him immediately from

603
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:23,240
Speaker 2: Kirby Smart from the day that he signed with the

604
00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:26,320
Speaker 2: recruiting class. But the defense finished sixty seventh and creating havoc.

605
00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:30,040
Speaker 2: That to me was very un Georgia like. Now there's

606
00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:32,120
Speaker 2: a drop off and experience on the defensive line. Hell,

607
00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:34,720
Speaker 2: they're all playing for the Philadelphia Eagles. I'll say it

608
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:36,760
Speaker 2: again only because I heard load management come out of

609
00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:39,280
Speaker 2: Kirby one time during an interview. Do they need the

610
00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 2: Georgia Tech game? And why are you playing with your

611
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:44,600
Speaker 2: food and going to eight over times with the Yellow Jackets.

612
00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 2: I think under nine and a half is the play.

613
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:49,280
Speaker 2: I think no playoff is the play. I'm not there.

614
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:52,600
Speaker 2: I think you know, this is not the same coaching

615
00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:54,240
Speaker 2: staff that was winning national titles. This is not the

616
00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:56,960
Speaker 2: same defensive linees winning national titles. It's not the same quarterback.

617
00:30:57,200 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 4: You need the offense to be good and is stopped

618
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:02,720
Speaker 4: in that guy. I have my doubts, but we'll see.

619
00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:04,720
Speaker 4: He could definitely be wrong, and that's what's going to

620
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:08,520
Speaker 4: determine whether or not they are national champion. Good by

621
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:11,280
Speaker 4: the way, Kirby, if there are some close games, Kirby

622
00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:14,440
Speaker 4: does not get enough credit. It's the opposite of saving

623
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:18,160
Speaker 4: This is one Saban's weak point with special teams. Don't

624
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:20,720
Speaker 4: ask me. I told you everything I know. I don't

625
00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:22,680
Speaker 4: have anything else to say about it. Kirby doesn't get

626
00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:24,960
Speaker 4: enough credit for his special teams. Georgia might have the

627
00:31:25,040 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 4: number one special teams unit. They are excellent, which could

628
00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:32,000
Speaker 4: could could steal them a game or two. Yep, all right,

629
00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:33,520
Speaker 4: let's move on to Texas.

630
00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:37,480
Speaker 1: That Texas Longhorns horns up.

631
00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:42,720
Speaker 4: Similar story to Georgia lost a ton at ninety six

632
00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:45,320
Speaker 4: in return What are they? I think they're like eighty

633
00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 4: fifth in returning production Georgia's ninety six. They lost a

634
00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:50,840
Speaker 4: lot to win totals right around for Georgias, I think

635
00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:52,000
Speaker 4: the best you can find is over nine and a

636
00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:54,280
Speaker 4: half minus one to eighty. They're minus three ten to

637
00:31:54,280 --> 00:31:56,360
Speaker 4: make the playoff. They are best you can find to

638
00:31:56,400 --> 00:32:00,160
Speaker 4: win the conference plus three hundred the different I mean

639
00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 4: Texas and Georgia's their quarterback is much more hyped up

640
00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 4: than that's Arch Manning. He has all the tools. We

641
00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:07,360
Speaker 4: know he can run by the way sarks. One of

642
00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:10,040
Speaker 4: his biggest issues in the past couple years red zone scoring,

643
00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:13,520
Speaker 4: red zone touchdown percentage. You would think over the course

644
00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:16,240
Speaker 4: of the season, if Arch reaches posential, he could really

645
00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:19,760
Speaker 4: help in that department with his legs inside the twenty.

646
00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 4: So we'll see. But he's still unproven. There's still unknowns.

647
00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:24,640
Speaker 4: There's still a lot of pressure on him. Everyone's just

648
00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:27,240
Speaker 4: assuming that he's gonna win the Heisman Trophy and he's

649
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 4: going to be great, Like you gotta pump the brakes.

650
00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:33,840
Speaker 4: We still don't know. It's a quarterback. So there were

651
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:36,400
Speaker 4: some things to like, some things that I think he

652
00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:38,880
Speaker 4: needed to work on, which he knew. He has all

653
00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:40,760
Speaker 4: the tools, he has all the support. I think he's

654
00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:42,480
Speaker 4: eventually gonna be really good, but there could be some

655
00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:45,560
Speaker 4: struggles in year one. The rest of the roster. I

656
00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:48,440
Speaker 4: like some of the additions that they got, especially from

657
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:51,080
Speaker 4: the West Coast, like bringing in Andrew's is huge at

658
00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:55,040
Speaker 4: at tight end after you lost Home Mosley. The addition

659
00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:56,800
Speaker 4: from Stanford I think is going to help out. My

660
00:32:56,840 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 4: biggest question is the offensive line. GEG one hundred and

661
00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:04,080
Speaker 4: sixty starts returning last year, They're down to forty five

662
00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:08,680
Speaker 4: this year. You lose Banks, Connor, Williams and Majors. It's

663
00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:11,040
Speaker 4: a lot of experience, that's a lot of talent. We'll

664
00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:14,040
Speaker 4: see how it comes together. Their offensive line coach Kyle

665
00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:17,360
Speaker 4: Flood is very, very good, and they've kept young guys around.

666
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 4: They have a lot of talent. Like while they've had

667
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:21,680
Speaker 4: these guys who have been entrenched in their positions, these

668
00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:23,680
Speaker 4: young guys, are they ready to step up? And is

669
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:25,520
Speaker 4: there going to be some growing things because there's a

670
00:33:25,560 --> 00:33:27,960
Speaker 4: lot of new here. The depth across the board is young.

671
00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:32,400
Speaker 4: The defense, I do have some concerns. Everyone was right

672
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:34,640
Speaker 4: about the defensive line last year. I've said it's not

673
00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:36,440
Speaker 4: gonna be a problem. I think it might be a

674
00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:39,320
Speaker 4: problem this year. You know, you've lost the past couple

675
00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:41,280
Speaker 4: of years. What you've lost in the interior of that

676
00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:44,600
Speaker 4: defensive line. You lost your top five defensive tackles last

677
00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:48,120
Speaker 4: year years in Row Yeah, and Sorell and Collin's not gone.

678
00:33:48,280 --> 00:33:49,840
Speaker 4: And then I look at who they brought in.

679
00:33:49,960 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 2: You don't like, and Purdue another Purdue transfer guy.

680
00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:56,360
Speaker 4: Everyone's relying on a Purdue guy. I don't really see it.

681
00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:58,440
Speaker 4: The defensive end you lost brought in to the NFL.

682
00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:00,400
Speaker 4: But Simmons and more back off the end edge you

683
00:34:00,560 --> 00:34:03,200
Speaker 4: to fill back. They're talented as hell. There's talent all over.

684
00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:05,360
Speaker 4: We gott to see who emerges. They have the number

685
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:08,000
Speaker 4: one recruiting class. Stark's doing a great job. Top twenty

686
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:10,280
Speaker 4: five portal class. There are so many similarities to Georgia.

687
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:15,200
Speaker 4: New kicker and punter are worth mentioning. So yeah, scheduling

688
00:34:15,680 --> 00:34:19,960
Speaker 4: there there are only three true SEC home games. And

689
00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:24,000
Speaker 4: then also you're at Ohio State and at Georgia, oh

690
00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 4: and at Florida. And this win total is like implied

691
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:29,440
Speaker 4: ten point two. Well you're gonna be dogs in two games,

692
00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:32,960
Speaker 4: right that Florida is not easy? Yeah, there's and that's

693
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 4: a tricky spot that at Florida. I mean then you

694
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:38,440
Speaker 4: got Oklahoma. Oh, that's not an easy game in that

695
00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:42,120
Speaker 4: rivalry like Texas A and M that's not easy again,

696
00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 4: just like Georgia. That's where I project them at nine

697
00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:48,879
Speaker 4: point seven, three point oh three. So I show a little,

698
00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:51,120
Speaker 4: it's under nothing. I think that's like a half win

699
00:34:51,280 --> 00:34:55,000
Speaker 4: too high. But with Sark, the staff, the talent, they

700
00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:56,640
Speaker 4: probably find a way to get the ten wins. But

701
00:34:56,680 --> 00:34:58,840
Speaker 4: I think it's a little too expensive. I think the

702
00:34:58,920 --> 00:35:02,319
Speaker 4: win total comes down to the Ohio State game. So

703
00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:04,440
Speaker 4: I think if they beat Ohio State, I think they

704
00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:08,279
Speaker 4: go eleven and one. If they lose that Ohio State game,

705
00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:10,720
Speaker 4: they're going to lose another one. I think the ceilings

706
00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:13,640
Speaker 4: tendant to I don't know what that means, but it's

707
00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:15,720
Speaker 4: just what my honest thoughts are.

708
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:18,920
Speaker 2: Texas will only go as far as finishing Drives does

709
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:21,000
Speaker 2: on offense. I mean that, I mean you're gonna run

710
00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:23,279
Speaker 2: a tossa with Trivian Wisner and ruin your season. I mean,

711
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:24,920
Speaker 2: I think there's a couple of ways to play Texas.

712
00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:26,799
Speaker 2: I mean, you really covered a lot of angles here.

713
00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:29,120
Speaker 2: I think with Arch, you know, we're talking about a

714
00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:32,120
Speaker 2: guy who is he's not really that proven. We've seen

715
00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:34,359
Speaker 2: him run the RPO, but have we really seen him

716
00:35:34,600 --> 00:35:36,719
Speaker 2: at the level of that we need to see in

717
00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:39,160
Speaker 2: certain spots. I mean we've we've seen flashes of it.

718
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:41,240
Speaker 2: I think with Arch we do have a new dimension

719
00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:43,120
Speaker 2: of a Texas offense where we're going to see the RPO,

720
00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 2: We're going to see a little bit different kind of offense.

721
00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:47,279
Speaker 2: I think when you've got Weisner back there, you got

722
00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:47,919
Speaker 2: a healthy CJ.

723
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:48,360
Speaker 1: Baxter.

724
00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:53,719
Speaker 2: You know, Wisner created twenty three percent force tackle mistackle

725
00:35:53,880 --> 00:35:57,960
Speaker 2: force mistackle rate. That's pretty good. There's really no holes

726
00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:00,239
Speaker 2: on this offensive skill positions. I mean DeAndre more D

727
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:01,640
Speaker 2: fifty nine targets out of the slot.

728
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:04,359
Speaker 4: Yeah, there's talented fresh, but really talented fresh, and two

729
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:08,040
Speaker 4: that could emerge. The skill positions aren't aren't.

730
00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:10,719
Speaker 2: And you remember Goosby taken over blindside tackle in the

731
00:36:10,719 --> 00:36:13,120
Speaker 2: playoff and there's some real worries about that. And he

732
00:36:13,120 --> 00:36:14,959
Speaker 2: he had one back and then he turned around.

733
00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:16,640
Speaker 4: He's good, He's not good. If he does a good year,

734
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:17,640
Speaker 4: he's gonna be make a first run drip.

735
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:22,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, him, absolutely, absolutely, So, I'm not really worried about

736
00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:26,359
Speaker 2: any certain position on the offense. Defense. Same thing. I mean,

737
00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:28,680
Speaker 2: I know we're talking about Purdue. I mean, here's the

738
00:36:28,719 --> 00:36:28,920
Speaker 2: one thing.

739
00:36:28,960 --> 00:36:30,680
Speaker 4: I'll say, you're a defensive line taking a step back.

740
00:36:30,680 --> 00:36:33,480
Speaker 4: He would agree with that. It's been so dominant.

741
00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:35,880
Speaker 2: The Bavard had sixteen pressures from the nose position.

742
00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:38,040
Speaker 4: Not saying dad, I'm just saying, if there's a.

743
00:36:38,760 --> 00:36:41,400
Speaker 2: From Devandre Sweat and what they had last year, Yeah, absolutely,

744
00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:43,920
Speaker 2: Oh got it. How are you replicating that? Yeah? Absolutely.

745
00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:46,480
Speaker 2: I still like Trey Moore manning the outside edge position.

746
00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:48,399
Speaker 2: I loved him when he was at UTSA in twenty

747
00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:48,919
Speaker 2: twenty three.

748
00:36:49,120 --> 00:36:50,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, Hills the start backer.

749
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:53,040
Speaker 2: Well, see, the whole problem is I bagged on Hill

750
00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:55,240
Speaker 2: so bad last year because he had like the best

751
00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:58,360
Speaker 2: run defensive numbers in all PF grade. He had like

752
00:36:58,360 --> 00:37:00,239
Speaker 2: the worst pass defense, like you got him in third

753
00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:03,640
Speaker 2: and long, like he was not good in coverage. So

754
00:37:03,680 --> 00:37:07,840
Speaker 2: that does need to improve. Listen again, strength of schedule

755
00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:09,919
Speaker 2: is fifteenth. You're starting off with Ohio State. I want

756
00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:11,720
Speaker 2: to wipe the wind total. I don't think you should

757
00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:13,440
Speaker 2: play the wind total because, frankly, I think it comes

758
00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:15,759
Speaker 2: down to this game against Ohio State. I've already put

759
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:18,239
Speaker 2: plus three in the app. There are two shops, the

760
00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:21,520
Speaker 2: two biggest shops in Vegas are still covering it, and

761
00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:26,080
Speaker 2: also a very prominent Jersey Philadelphia Pennsylvania book is also

762
00:37:26,160 --> 00:37:28,399
Speaker 2: still hovering on the three. I don't think it closes three.

763
00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:30,839
Speaker 2: I think that game closes more Ohio State minus one.

764
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:33,399
Speaker 2: So I do like Texas and the opener. There are

765
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:37,120
Speaker 2: a lot less variables on the Texas side, on both

766
00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:39,360
Speaker 2: sides of the ball, from a coordinator, from a player

767
00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:42,040
Speaker 2: position there is with Ohio State. And that's all it is.

768
00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:45,440
Speaker 2: College football and handicapping is an information game, and I

769
00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:48,440
Speaker 2: have way more information on what I'm getting with my

770
00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:51,319
Speaker 2: money on Texas than I do with Ohio State. Not

771
00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 2: worried about technically more.

772
00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:54,680
Speaker 4: We know we have more confidence in what we've seen

773
00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:57,520
Speaker 4: from Manning than saying oh wins the job.

774
00:37:58,920 --> 00:38:01,359
Speaker 2: And if we're going to talk about how Texas taking

775
00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:03,200
Speaker 2: a step down a defensive line, Ohio State is really

776
00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:04,880
Speaker 2: taking a step down in the interior defensive line. If

777
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:08,520
Speaker 2: Archer's gonna run RPO with two great backs, I'm there

778
00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:11,000
Speaker 2: for it. So that that's the way I'm betting that Now.

779
00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:13,799
Speaker 2: I think Texas is making the SEC championship game. The

780
00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:18,680
Speaker 2: schedule from an SEC perspective is soft. I know George

781
00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:21,440
Speaker 2: is on it. I get it, But you get Arkansas

782
00:38:21,520 --> 00:38:24,279
Speaker 2: and Vandy coming too. Austin not really worried about that.

783
00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:26,600
Speaker 2: And as much as we hyped up Texas A and M,

784
00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:28,839
Speaker 2: where they get their doors blown off them last year.

785
00:38:28,880 --> 00:38:31,040
Speaker 2: What was the score of that game? That has seventeen

786
00:38:31,080 --> 00:38:33,320
Speaker 2: to seven? Felt like a billion? They covered?

787
00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:35,600
Speaker 4: They should they should have won by a lot more

788
00:38:35,840 --> 00:38:37,400
Speaker 4: and I had a and M right.

789
00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:41,480
Speaker 2: I don't I see Texas making the championship game. That

790
00:38:41,600 --> 00:38:43,520
Speaker 2: number is out there at plus one thirty right now.

791
00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:46,440
Speaker 2: I'm not sure if I played in the app as

792
00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:48,920
Speaker 2: to win the SEC, because I'm going to bet somebody

793
00:38:48,920 --> 00:38:50,920
Speaker 2: else to do that. But I think Texas makes the

794
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:53,360
Speaker 2: SEC championship game, no questions asked. I like plus one

795
00:38:53,480 --> 00:38:55,960
Speaker 2: thirty that's out there, offered by DK and many other books.

796
00:38:56,200 --> 00:38:57,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I have. As of right now, I

797
00:38:57,520 --> 00:39:00,440
Speaker 4: have Texas two points better than everybody else in the

798
00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:03,440
Speaker 4: SEC going into the season. All right, let's move on

799
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:04,560
Speaker 4: to Alabama.

800
00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:08,200
Speaker 2: We need go keep out Romans until we do something.

801
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:13,400
Speaker 2: Stupid egg paled oh fie.

802
00:39:14,400 --> 00:39:18,479
Speaker 4: Last year disappointing year into bors first season. They didn't

803
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:20,840
Speaker 4: get the ten plus wins that snapped an FPS record

804
00:39:20,840 --> 00:39:24,200
Speaker 4: of sixteen straight seasons of getting to double digit wins.

805
00:39:24,880 --> 00:39:26,279
Speaker 4: If you want to bet their win total, that's what

806
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:30,280
Speaker 4: you're betting on This year. Will Alabama start that streak

807
00:39:30,320 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 4: over win total over nine and a half minus won

808
00:39:32,719 --> 00:39:34,960
Speaker 4: twelve is the best you can find out there, so

809
00:39:35,719 --> 00:39:37,799
Speaker 4: implied around nine and a half for what it's worth.

810
00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:41,800
Speaker 4: I'm right, I'm at like nine point four, so nothing

811
00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:44,640
Speaker 4: on the win total for me. They're plus four seventy

812
00:39:44,680 --> 00:39:47,480
Speaker 4: five to win. The SEC had taken some money during

813
00:39:47,520 --> 00:39:50,920
Speaker 4: the summer minus won seventy to make the College Football Playoff.

814
00:39:52,120 --> 00:39:55,359
Speaker 4: I don't have many questions about it was all good

815
00:39:55,360 --> 00:39:59,239
Speaker 4: news mainly for Alabama in the off season, or I

816
00:39:59,239 --> 00:40:01,719
Speaker 4: should say at the end of last season. Because they

817
00:40:01,719 --> 00:40:06,280
Speaker 4: brought Grub back. The board reunites with this guy offensive coordinator,

818
00:40:06,360 --> 00:40:10,680
Speaker 4: and then about eight potential draft picks decided to stay.

819
00:40:11,160 --> 00:40:14,600
Speaker 4: The defense is going to be loaded across the board.

820
00:40:15,160 --> 00:40:20,040
Speaker 4: I like some of the there was. They've made a

821
00:40:20,080 --> 00:40:25,560
Speaker 4: couple like getting hill Green. I really like him. Is

822
00:40:25,640 --> 00:40:29,480
Speaker 4: that he might be the third linebacker, but to go

823
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:33,799
Speaker 4: along with Lawson and Jefferson. But I like that pick up.

824
00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:36,640
Speaker 4: But this is the team just like Georgia and Texas,

825
00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:38,439
Speaker 4: this is all the elite teams were building this year.

826
00:40:38,880 --> 00:40:41,880
Speaker 4: Top three recruiting twenty first portal class. They didn't go

827
00:40:41,880 --> 00:40:47,480
Speaker 4: crazy in the portal they bring, unlike Georgia in Texas,

828
00:40:47,520 --> 00:40:50,960
Speaker 4: This team is top twenty five, is in returning production,

829
00:40:51,040 --> 00:40:55,160
Speaker 4: so they bring a lot back. The wide receiver room

830
00:40:55,200 --> 00:40:58,600
Speaker 4: is loaded. Tight end. There are some more questions this

831
00:40:58,680 --> 00:41:02,759
Speaker 4: year after they lost a pair the offensive line. I

832
00:41:02,760 --> 00:41:05,360
Speaker 4: mean people, they're like, they lost Pritchett. Who cares? He

833
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:07,440
Speaker 4: was horrendous. I don't think. I don't know why Nebraska

834
00:41:07,440 --> 00:41:09,360
Speaker 4: paid him. That's how bad the portal class was at

835
00:41:09,360 --> 00:41:13,000
Speaker 4: certain posisions This year. You got profter back rails for

836
00:41:13,120 --> 00:41:16,600
Speaker 4: back Roberts, They're all good. You had Dewberry from Texas

837
00:41:16,680 --> 00:41:19,440
Speaker 4: A and M I'm not a huge fan, but he

838
00:41:19,680 --> 00:41:24,920
Speaker 4: can fill in admirably formulate. And then you got who

839
00:41:25,000 --> 00:41:27,920
Speaker 4: formby is gonna take over at right tackle, right tackle,

840
00:41:28,000 --> 00:41:29,480
Speaker 4: left guard. Still a little bit of a question. But

841
00:41:29,520 --> 00:41:34,000
Speaker 4: the offensive line will be fine. The defensive line loaded,

842
00:41:36,320 --> 00:41:41,000
Speaker 4: linebacker loaded. Even though they lost Campbell, defensive backfield loaded.

843
00:41:41,880 --> 00:41:45,279
Speaker 4: The lost more gets sat back from injury. I'm not

844
00:41:45,480 --> 00:41:47,600
Speaker 4: a huge like I mean Brown, their corner started as

845
00:41:47,600 --> 00:41:49,279
Speaker 4: a freshman. I'm not a huge Demani Jackson guy. I

846
00:41:49,320 --> 00:41:53,960
Speaker 4: think he's a little overrated. But even add in Calhoun

847
00:41:55,640 --> 00:41:58,359
Speaker 4: Collins the defensive line. I like some of the little

848
00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:01,520
Speaker 4: additions that they made, but this defense is loaded. I

849
00:42:01,520 --> 00:42:05,960
Speaker 4: don't really have many questions about the defense. This all

850
00:42:05,960 --> 00:42:08,440
Speaker 4: comes down to the quarterback. We know Alabama's gonna be

851
00:42:08,440 --> 00:42:13,719
Speaker 4: really good. Who's gonna be the quarterback? Number one? I'm

852
00:42:13,719 --> 00:42:16,000
Speaker 4: not a Simpson guy, like I don't think they go

853
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:17,799
Speaker 4: in a national title system. I could be wrong. I mean,

854
00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:21,480
Speaker 4: you could come in and I haven't. I'm not a

855
00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:25,600
Speaker 4: quarterback expert by any stretch, but I think that Russell's

856
00:42:25,640 --> 00:42:28,239
Speaker 4: the most talented, and I think many would agree. Is

857
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:30,640
Speaker 4: he ready? It's weird. Mac is the only one who's

858
00:42:30,640 --> 00:42:33,960
Speaker 4: trying to touchdown. He has experienced in the systems. He

859
00:42:34,000 --> 00:42:36,799
Speaker 4: came from Washington. Russell has the most experienced here at Alabama.

860
00:42:36,800 --> 00:42:40,160
Speaker 4: I mean Simpson has mostly experienced here at Alabama. Russell

861
00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:42,799
Speaker 4: is the most talent. Who's gonna win the job? And

862
00:42:43,080 --> 00:42:45,680
Speaker 4: not only who's gonna win it, who's gonna keep it?

863
00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:49,080
Speaker 4: Is it going to be lost? Eventually? You start at

864
00:42:49,080 --> 00:42:51,840
Speaker 4: Florida State, then you're at home against ULM, home against Wisconsin.

865
00:42:51,880 --> 00:42:56,359
Speaker 4: Then you gotta buy before Georgia. What happens before that

866
00:42:56,400 --> 00:43:01,279
Speaker 4: game and then after it's definitely worth watching. I will

867
00:43:01,320 --> 00:43:06,200
Speaker 4: also mention the there could be some disappointing teams. They're

868
00:43:06,200 --> 00:43:09,480
Speaker 4: playing in the second half of the schedule Tennessee. They

869
00:43:09,560 --> 00:43:13,320
Speaker 4: might have a down year. We'll see where LSU is

870
00:43:13,320 --> 00:43:15,320
Speaker 4: at very late, like if they lose a couple of

871
00:43:15,360 --> 00:43:20,960
Speaker 4: games with the Brian Kelly sta Oklahoma with Venables and

872
00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:23,400
Speaker 4: then at Auburn late in the year. Although it's the

873
00:43:23,520 --> 00:43:25,000
Speaker 4: r and Bowl will always be up for that. But

874
00:43:25,480 --> 00:43:31,560
Speaker 4: something worth noting the Yeah So Tide nine and a half.

875
00:43:32,520 --> 00:43:34,440
Speaker 4: People seem to love this team. They get much more

876
00:43:34,440 --> 00:43:36,680
Speaker 4: experience than they were last year. It's Divorce's second year.

877
00:43:37,280 --> 00:43:39,560
Speaker 4: I was kind of disappointing it in in certain spots

878
00:43:39,600 --> 00:43:45,000
Speaker 4: last year, like the Bowl game, Dandy, but all the

879
00:43:45,080 --> 00:43:46,680
Speaker 4: guy's done is one. You getting the benefit of the

880
00:43:46,760 --> 00:43:49,160
Speaker 4: duphers first year, and I like the addition of Grub

881
00:43:49,920 --> 00:43:51,239
Speaker 4: So all comes down to the quarterback. What are your

882
00:43:51,239 --> 00:43:51,799
Speaker 4: thoughts on the time.

883
00:43:53,320 --> 00:43:56,640
Speaker 2: I haven't said this out loud anywhere any format to anybody,

884
00:43:56,640 --> 00:43:58,560
Speaker 2: and I haven't written it. So let's get it out

885
00:43:58,560 --> 00:44:00,440
Speaker 2: of the way, because I bet it and it's going

886
00:44:00,480 --> 00:44:04,480
Speaker 2: to go into that. I think Alabama's winning the national title.

887
00:44:04,600 --> 00:44:07,320
Speaker 2: Of all the teams in the top ten, this is

888
00:44:07,360 --> 00:44:09,040
Speaker 2: the team I'm putting my money on to win the

889
00:44:09,120 --> 00:44:13,920
Speaker 2: national title. I have an eleven to one. Kane Wollmack

890
00:44:14,040 --> 00:44:16,560
Speaker 2: is a defensive coordinator. The numbers are insane what they

891
00:44:16,560 --> 00:44:18,479
Speaker 2: put up last year, and I think this defense is better.

892
00:44:18,600 --> 00:44:21,120
Speaker 2: And I love Kane Wollmack, but let's start with the

893
00:44:21,120 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 2: offensive side of the ball, because I think Ryan Grubb

894
00:44:23,160 --> 00:44:26,279
Speaker 2: coming in to run de Bors offense is like put

895
00:44:26,280 --> 00:44:29,120
Speaker 2: the hits back on right. I mean, Nick Sheridan's going

896
00:44:29,160 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 2: to solely focus on the quarterback position, which is something

897
00:44:31,480 --> 00:44:34,120
Speaker 2: that they need because weird got Austin Mack here. Can

898
00:44:34,160 --> 00:44:37,680
Speaker 2: you be the holdover? Can Ty Simpson provide anything from

899
00:44:37,719 --> 00:44:39,840
Speaker 2: a leadership perspective of somebody that's been in this program,

900
00:44:39,960 --> 00:44:41,960
Speaker 2: or do I need Mac to run my system? You know,

901
00:44:42,040 --> 00:44:45,399
Speaker 2: Ryan Williams, Jeremy Bernard, absolutely good luck to everybody else

902
00:44:45,440 --> 00:44:47,959
Speaker 2: trying to defend whatever kind of prestat motion the shit

903
00:44:48,000 --> 00:44:51,480
Speaker 2: that they do after the snap. Big question is Keilon Russell.

904
00:44:51,960 --> 00:44:54,600
Speaker 2: And I've watched enough tape and I've read enough, and

905
00:44:54,719 --> 00:44:58,400
Speaker 2: I've I've done my due diligence to know that I

906
00:44:58,440 --> 00:45:00,000
Speaker 2: think there's a plan for this kid, and I don't

907
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:02,520
Speaker 2: if it's him coming in September twenty seventh against Georgia.

908
00:45:02,600 --> 00:45:04,640
Speaker 2: Or if they just hold this kid out till Ky

909
00:45:04,719 --> 00:45:07,160
Speaker 2: Simpson and Austin mac take their legs, maybe they hold

910
00:45:07,239 --> 00:45:09,160
Speaker 2: him to the playoff. I don't know. I would assume

911
00:45:09,239 --> 00:45:11,840
Speaker 2: there's a plan, there's a package, it's being worked on,

912
00:45:12,000 --> 00:45:13,239
Speaker 2: and we're not going to see it till they have

913
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:13,680
Speaker 2: to use it.

914
00:45:14,360 --> 00:45:16,719
Speaker 4: By the way, I'm waiting, I'm going to bet Alabama

915
00:45:17,040 --> 00:45:19,680
Speaker 4: to win the national title if they lose a game

916
00:45:20,320 --> 00:45:21,600
Speaker 4: with Simpson.

917
00:45:22,120 --> 00:45:27,160
Speaker 2: I love this team because of the Keelon Russell aspect,

918
00:45:27,239 --> 00:45:30,719
Speaker 2: where we've seen players take teams over and get them

919
00:45:30,760 --> 00:45:33,640
Speaker 2: over the hump in national title runs. I think that

920
00:45:33,640 --> 00:45:35,680
Speaker 2: that could be Keylon Russell. From everything that I've seen,

921
00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:37,160
Speaker 2: there is a plan and I think he's going to

922
00:45:37,200 --> 00:45:39,840
Speaker 2: be held back as long as possible. Now, the defense

923
00:45:39,960 --> 00:45:42,239
Speaker 2: is insane. I mean I'm staring at the numbers from

924
00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:45,839
Speaker 2: last year fourth and defensive finishing drive seventh and quality drives.

925
00:45:45,840 --> 00:45:48,399
Speaker 2: Nobody could get into scoring position. Even if they could,

926
00:45:48,400 --> 00:45:50,960
Speaker 2: they couldn't even get points up on the board. Limited

927
00:45:51,040 --> 00:45:54,120
Speaker 2: EPA top twenty and rushing and passing success right second

928
00:45:54,120 --> 00:45:57,040
Speaker 2: in the nation and tackling. This is Caine Womex first

929
00:45:57,120 --> 00:45:58,680
Speaker 2: chance to get his hands on these guys, and they

930
00:45:58,680 --> 00:46:01,359
Speaker 2: finished second in tackling. I'm impressed. I mean, I knew

931
00:46:01,360 --> 00:46:03,040
Speaker 2: that Camwellmack is one of the best DC's when he

932
00:46:03,080 --> 00:46:04,640
Speaker 2: got called up to the big show in the P four.

933
00:46:05,360 --> 00:46:08,200
Speaker 2: There's really impressive numbers that they put up. This defense

934
00:46:08,280 --> 00:46:11,080
Speaker 2: cooks and they're going to continue to cook. Four SEC

935
00:46:11,120 --> 00:46:13,120
Speaker 2: teams will have a bye week. Let's talk about some

936
00:46:13,160 --> 00:46:15,080
Speaker 2: of the pitfalls. Four SEC teams will have a byewick

937
00:46:15,120 --> 00:46:18,960
Speaker 2: play in Alabama, Georgia at Georgia, at Missouri LSU, and

938
00:46:19,000 --> 00:46:22,640
Speaker 2: Oklahoma LS in Oklahoma. That's consecutive games against teams that

939
00:46:22,640 --> 00:46:24,600
Speaker 2: are coming off of bye. So we'll see what the

940
00:46:25,440 --> 00:46:27,800
Speaker 2: health level is, what the depth level is for Alabama

941
00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:30,759
Speaker 2: should be fine. I project just one SEC game within

942
00:46:30,760 --> 00:46:33,359
Speaker 2: a touchdown and that's against Georgia. I make Bama seven

943
00:46:33,360 --> 00:46:36,200
Speaker 2: and a half point favorite against LSU. I don't I

944
00:46:36,200 --> 00:46:38,960
Speaker 2: think the floor is ten wins. The ceiling could be twelve.

945
00:46:39,040 --> 00:46:42,200
Speaker 2: They they'll drop a game, but the fact that they

946
00:46:42,239 --> 00:46:44,640
Speaker 2: have what I consider to be the best defense in

947
00:46:44,680 --> 00:46:50,120
Speaker 2: this conference, multiple options at quarterback, a remarriage of coordinator

948
00:46:50,120 --> 00:46:53,399
Speaker 2: with Kaylin de Boorr. This team's national title contender, and

949
00:46:53,440 --> 00:46:56,279
Speaker 2: I like their numbers better. I would I when we

950
00:46:56,280 --> 00:46:58,520
Speaker 2: did the Big Ten podcasts and if you haven't listened

951
00:46:58,520 --> 00:47:00,680
Speaker 2: to it, go listen to it. Penn State with a

952
00:47:00,719 --> 00:47:03,520
Speaker 2: caveat like I'm gonna worry about this in the semi finals.

953
00:47:04,040 --> 00:47:06,200
Speaker 2: This is not a number I'm worrying about. Ever, I'm

954
00:47:06,239 --> 00:47:08,480
Speaker 2: not hedging this. I think Alabama can win the national

955
00:47:08,480 --> 00:47:10,279
Speaker 2: title out of all the leite teams in the nation.

956
00:47:10,760 --> 00:47:12,480
Speaker 4: I'm not with you, but I might get there. If

957
00:47:12,520 --> 00:47:15,120
Speaker 4: they start Simpson and then lose a game, lose to

958
00:47:15,160 --> 00:47:17,319
Speaker 4: Florida State Week one, that would be great.

959
00:47:17,600 --> 00:47:19,000
Speaker 2: Then give me a twenty to one.

960
00:47:20,200 --> 00:47:28,840
Speaker 4: All right, let's move on to the aforementioned LSU tagers.

961
00:47:31,320 --> 00:47:34,239
Speaker 4: LSU the best you can find out over eight and

962
00:47:34,280 --> 00:47:36,640
Speaker 4: a half minus one forty. The over is taking some money.

963
00:47:37,920 --> 00:47:40,400
Speaker 4: Make the playoff best number out there plus one thirty

964
00:47:41,080 --> 00:47:44,560
Speaker 4: plus seven to fifty to win. The conference. Schedule's very hard,

965
00:47:44,600 --> 00:47:47,080
Speaker 4: one of the ten hardest in the country. They only

966
00:47:47,120 --> 00:47:50,640
Speaker 4: face four new quarterbacks. The road games Clemson, Ole, Miss

967
00:47:50,719 --> 00:47:54,960
Speaker 4: Bama Ou ain't easy. I mean I project I project

968
00:47:55,000 --> 00:47:57,680
Speaker 4: around eight and a half. That's what my number said.

969
00:47:57,960 --> 00:47:58,440
Speaker 2: I got eight.

970
00:47:58,440 --> 00:48:01,120
Speaker 4: I can't go over eight and a half minus one forty.

971
00:48:01,800 --> 00:48:06,080
Speaker 4: But I'm still buying the upside of this team because, look,

972
00:48:06,600 --> 00:48:10,200
Speaker 4: we go through the SEC Texas, we don't know about

973
00:48:10,280 --> 00:48:14,680
Speaker 4: Arch Georgia, we don't know about Stockton. Who are the

974
00:48:14,760 --> 00:48:18,640
Speaker 4: quarterbacks that you really can rely on. It's not Smyer.

975
00:48:19,280 --> 00:48:22,480
Speaker 4: I love their weapons. The offensive line is the big question.

976
00:48:22,560 --> 00:48:24,239
Speaker 4: But I will spin it. This is why there's some

977
00:48:24,320 --> 00:48:27,400
Speaker 4: upside here. And I don't want to go win total.

978
00:48:27,440 --> 00:48:29,040
Speaker 4: I just think and then if they because if they

979
00:48:29,120 --> 00:48:30,920
Speaker 4: lose a couple games, this could all spiral and the

980
00:48:30,920 --> 00:48:32,880
Speaker 4: offense line could be a disaster. They lost four to

981
00:48:32,880 --> 00:48:36,520
Speaker 4: the NFL left tackle, right tackle, right guard, the left guard.

982
00:48:36,560 --> 00:48:38,840
Speaker 4: They're gonna need their young guys to step up. The

983
00:48:38,880 --> 00:48:41,600
Speaker 4: thing is last year they had no run game. They

984
00:48:41,600 --> 00:48:43,239
Speaker 4: could not get it going, even though they had four

985
00:48:43,320 --> 00:48:46,120
Speaker 4: NFL offensive linemen, no run game to speak up, and

986
00:48:46,120 --> 00:48:48,760
Speaker 4: then it was just nus Meyer, who's not mobile, dropping

987
00:48:48,800 --> 00:48:51,320
Speaker 4: back with you average forty passes per game. Yeah, So

988
00:48:51,880 --> 00:48:55,920
Speaker 4: if this offensive line can come together and there's cohesion

989
00:48:55,960 --> 00:48:58,680
Speaker 4: there and they actually can get a run game going,

990
00:48:58,760 --> 00:49:01,560
Speaker 4: it'll help nuss Meyerendoly and we'll give this offense balance

991
00:49:01,560 --> 00:49:05,080
Speaker 4: it had none last year. I'm a huge nus Meyer fan,

992
00:49:05,440 --> 00:49:07,640
Speaker 4: so there is some upside. Now it could all fall apart.

993
00:49:07,719 --> 00:49:10,640
Speaker 4: There's some variance with this, but there's some upside with

994
00:49:10,760 --> 00:49:13,240
Speaker 4: them actually having a run game. There's no questions about

995
00:49:13,760 --> 00:49:16,479
Speaker 4: the weapons that they have on the outside. I mean, look, Alice,

996
00:49:16,480 --> 00:49:18,200
Speaker 4: you have the number one portal class in the country,

997
00:49:18,600 --> 00:49:21,520
Speaker 4: and then look you have Perkins. This is if they

998
00:49:21,520 --> 00:49:23,120
Speaker 4: can figure out how to use him right, he could

999
00:49:23,120 --> 00:49:25,160
Speaker 4: be like one of the best defenders in college football.

1000
00:49:25,160 --> 00:49:27,320
Speaker 4: Some more variants there. They do lose all four starters

1001
00:49:27,360 --> 00:49:30,160
Speaker 4: on the defensive line three to the NFL. I think

1002
00:49:30,160 --> 00:49:32,600
Speaker 4: this defense gear too Baker. I like Baker. I think

1003
00:49:32,600 --> 00:49:38,960
Speaker 4: there's potential here with this defense as well. Schedule's hard.

1004
00:49:39,160 --> 00:49:41,319
Speaker 4: I'm probably gonna bet them to win the SEC or

1005
00:49:41,360 --> 00:49:44,480
Speaker 4: make the SEC Championship game, and then I might wait

1006
00:49:45,640 --> 00:49:49,400
Speaker 4: to see if they lose to Clemson to bet making

1007
00:49:49,440 --> 00:49:52,960
Speaker 4: the playoff. Still haven't decided, but there's some questions on

1008
00:49:53,000 --> 00:49:56,160
Speaker 4: this team. There's no doubt the talent they have. Nous Meyer,

1009
00:49:56,880 --> 00:50:00,400
Speaker 4: the quarterback I feel best about in this entire com ofference.

1010
00:50:00,680 --> 00:50:04,839
Speaker 2: I'm buying the upside and nus Meyer for LSU. I'll

1011
00:50:04,880 --> 00:50:07,319
Speaker 2: be quick because my number is eight point eight. That

1012
00:50:07,400 --> 00:50:10,000
Speaker 2: makes over eight and a half minus one forty not

1013
00:50:10,880 --> 00:50:13,440
Speaker 2: a purchase item on my list. Let me start on

1014
00:50:13,440 --> 00:50:15,600
Speaker 2: the defensive side, like, is Harold Perkins going to returned

1015
00:50:15,600 --> 00:50:18,520
Speaker 2: off to outside linebacker? Because are we that committed to

1016
00:50:18,560 --> 00:50:22,640
Speaker 2: wit Weeks? Wit Weeks is really a boomer bust middle linebacker.

1017
00:50:23,280 --> 00:50:25,720
Speaker 2: We have to have the old version of Harold Perkins

1018
00:50:25,719 --> 00:50:28,799
Speaker 2: coming back, not the slow middle linebacker version. You know

1019
00:50:28,880 --> 00:50:31,360
Speaker 2: it goes back to Blake Baker. The coaching for me

1020
00:50:31,520 --> 00:50:34,319
Speaker 2: is just not there. I mean, you're you're tackling great

1021
00:50:34,360 --> 00:50:37,120
Speaker 2: at fifty first, you know your coverage numbers are eighty

1022
00:50:37,160 --> 00:50:40,600
Speaker 2: first and you're eighty eighth. Then creating contested catches. By

1023
00:50:40,640 --> 00:50:42,600
Speaker 2: the way, before I start on the offense with us,

1024
00:50:42,719 --> 00:50:45,280
Speaker 2: have you seen the Netflix series on the SEC Football?

1025
00:50:45,719 --> 00:50:48,279
Speaker 4: Now, I'm gonna I'm going on a trip soon for

1026
00:50:48,320 --> 00:50:51,120
Speaker 4: a couple of days before and he loaded up, so

1027
00:50:51,160 --> 00:50:52,680
Speaker 4: I'm going to watch that on the plane.

1028
00:50:52,840 --> 00:50:54,520
Speaker 2: I used to think that Brian Kelly was gonna win

1029
00:50:54,520 --> 00:50:56,799
Speaker 2: a national title, and he is in at the very

1030
00:50:56,800 --> 00:50:59,759
Speaker 2: first episode, across from Shane Beemer, who were about to

1031
00:50:59,760 --> 00:51:03,520
Speaker 2: get to Brian Kelly is like unrelatable to these players,

1032
00:51:03,920 --> 00:51:07,239
Speaker 2: like he's just like a bitchy grandpa. Hey, you know.

1033
00:51:07,360 --> 00:51:09,520
Speaker 2: And Beamer's over there like a member of the family

1034
00:51:09,520 --> 00:51:13,719
Speaker 2: at your dinner table. He's unrelatable to the kids. And

1035
00:51:14,040 --> 00:51:18,800
Speaker 2: we're sitting here again. We're sitting here again talking about

1036
00:51:18,800 --> 00:51:22,800
Speaker 2: the same things, not finishing when you have an opponent

1037
00:51:23,360 --> 00:51:25,800
Speaker 2: in a position to put them away.

1038
00:51:26,760 --> 00:51:31,160
Speaker 4: But big trusts in us go. Yeah, will be to

1039
00:51:31,239 --> 00:51:33,760
Speaker 4: all my LSU people. You know, I've always been a fan.

1040
00:51:34,520 --> 00:51:37,680
Speaker 3: Right, hey, hey, right, yes on, but yes on your

1041
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:38,640
Speaker 3: sisty blue shirt.

1042
00:51:40,239 --> 00:51:42,560
Speaker 4: LSU followers are so excited. I'm finally on board this year.

1043
00:51:43,920 --> 00:51:45,520
Speaker 4: I was looking at my I looked at this wrong.

1044
00:51:45,640 --> 00:51:48,680
Speaker 4: I project like eight six. You're higher than the Yeah,

1045
00:51:48,680 --> 00:51:53,120
Speaker 4: I made eight LSU upside for me? Okay, quick heads up.

1046
00:51:53,160 --> 00:51:56,240
Speaker 4: By the way, to anybody playing fantasy football this season,

1047
00:51:56,840 --> 00:51:59,720
Speaker 4: the ultimate twenty twenty five draft kit is here courtesy

1048
00:51:59,760 --> 00:52:02,359
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1049
00:52:02,440 --> 00:52:05,360
Speaker 4: Kerner and Chris Raybon, who are the best in the business,

1050
00:52:05,360 --> 00:52:09,040
Speaker 4: and we'll be at our Windy City kickoff. They had

1051
00:52:09,080 --> 00:52:13,640
Speaker 4: their rankings, tears and chet sheets ready for you. But

1052
00:52:13,760 --> 00:52:16,640
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1053
00:52:17,080 --> 00:52:20,320
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1054
00:52:20,560 --> 00:52:23,960
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1055
00:52:24,400 --> 00:52:27,440
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1056
00:52:27,520 --> 00:52:31,160
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1057
00:52:31,440 --> 00:52:35,720
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1058
00:52:35,840 --> 00:52:39,480
Speaker 4: Best in the business. I wouldn't trust anybody else with

1059
00:52:39,800 --> 00:52:43,040
Speaker 4: getting fantasy advice, and I'm not biased, although I am,

1060
00:52:43,040 --> 00:52:46,560
Speaker 4: but I'm being honest. Let's finish up part one with

1061
00:52:46,600 --> 00:52:47,879
Speaker 4: Texas A and M.

1062
00:52:48,160 --> 00:52:52,160
Speaker 1: That Texas A and m Aggie's do Texas.

1063
00:52:51,800 --> 00:52:56,239
Speaker 4: A and M coming off another year where they were

1064
00:52:56,280 --> 00:53:00,120
Speaker 4: close but just couldn't break through. It's a story with

1065
00:53:00,200 --> 00:53:02,840
Speaker 4: Texas A and M over the past couple of decades.

1066
00:53:03,160 --> 00:53:05,560
Speaker 4: Win total best out there. You can get over seven

1067
00:53:05,560 --> 00:53:07,680
Speaker 4: and a half minus one seventy or over eight minus

1068
00:53:07,719 --> 00:53:10,000
Speaker 4: one twenty, so they're win total sitting at around like

1069
00:53:10,040 --> 00:53:14,839
Speaker 4: eight point one two somewhere around that ballpark plus two

1070
00:53:14,920 --> 00:53:17,600
Speaker 4: thirty five to make the playoff, fifteen to one to

1071
00:53:17,680 --> 00:53:23,480
Speaker 4: win the SEC. This team, I mean, look top ten recruiting,

1072
00:53:23,520 --> 00:53:28,400
Speaker 4: top ten portal, top ten returning production. They got everything

1073
00:53:28,400 --> 00:53:31,520
Speaker 4: that you like returning quarterback. Now Marcel Reed has to

1074
00:53:32,960 --> 00:53:38,040
Speaker 4: he has to be better in his downfield passing, reading

1075
00:53:38,080 --> 00:53:41,400
Speaker 4: defenses and look just to be quite Frank textan and

1076
00:53:41,480 --> 00:53:44,959
Speaker 4: benefited from him as a surprise option last year. Right

1077
00:53:45,120 --> 00:53:46,840
Speaker 4: he had Connor Wegman, and then he saw him in

1078
00:53:46,840 --> 00:53:48,560
Speaker 4: the LSU game. He came in LS he wasn't ready

1079
00:53:48,600 --> 00:53:51,080
Speaker 4: for him, and then he saw him in certain spots

1080
00:53:51,080 --> 00:53:53,000
Speaker 4: when they were switching back portal. Now he's the guy.

1081
00:53:53,320 --> 00:53:57,879
Speaker 4: There's no surprise element. Now, I will say, I think

1082
00:53:57,880 --> 00:54:02,120
Speaker 4: that this team has an extremely high floor. Like I

1083
00:54:02,160 --> 00:54:04,480
Speaker 4: am very confident they're going to get for what it's read.

1084
00:54:04,520 --> 00:54:09,319
Speaker 4: I project them at eight and a half wins, so

1085
00:54:10,360 --> 00:54:12,800
Speaker 4: I show value in the over I'm gonna be betting

1086
00:54:12,800 --> 00:54:16,880
Speaker 4: on them. They're upside, just with these other teams falling.

1087
00:54:17,360 --> 00:54:20,080
Speaker 4: Because look, while I have questions about Reid and I

1088
00:54:20,120 --> 00:54:23,719
Speaker 4: think he's a bit limited as a passer, this run

1089
00:54:23,800 --> 00:54:29,080
Speaker 4: game is going to be electric with Moss back. Moss

1090
00:54:29,080 --> 00:54:31,920
Speaker 4: who led fbs and yards after contact before he went

1091
00:54:32,000 --> 00:54:33,840
Speaker 4: down with the injury. But everyone's back in the backfield

1092
00:54:33,880 --> 00:54:36,960
Speaker 4: and you got Reid's running ability, and then their offensive

1093
00:54:36,960 --> 00:54:39,520
Speaker 4: line is going to be elite. And you got seven

1094
00:54:39,560 --> 00:54:41,920
Speaker 4: of your top eight back on hundred and sixty starts returning,

1095
00:54:42,800 --> 00:54:44,240
Speaker 4: Like this run game is going to be elite.

1096
00:54:44,239 --> 00:54:44,359
Speaker 3: Now.

1097
00:54:44,440 --> 00:54:46,160
Speaker 4: The wide receiver, you lose your top four led by

1098
00:54:46,200 --> 00:54:48,719
Speaker 4: Thomas who went to Georgia, but you bring in Concepcion

1099
00:54:49,440 --> 00:54:53,840
Speaker 4: Craver Wilson. That's gonna be the question. Can the Baby

1100
00:54:53,840 --> 00:54:58,120
Speaker 4: Bees some of their freshmen step up. That's something that

1101
00:54:58,440 --> 00:55:01,520
Speaker 4: I'll be watching. The pass game is really the question

1102
00:55:01,600 --> 00:55:05,200
Speaker 4: I have with this team. In order to like really

1103
00:55:05,200 --> 00:55:07,080
Speaker 4: reach the ceiling, you're gonna need to throw it when

1104
00:55:07,280 --> 00:55:08,799
Speaker 4: you can't just have teams load in the box when

1105
00:55:08,800 --> 00:55:10,560
Speaker 4: you play the best of the best. But they're gonna

1106
00:55:10,560 --> 00:55:12,200
Speaker 4: be able to just rely on their defense and this

1107
00:55:12,280 --> 00:55:15,279
Speaker 4: run game to beat the teams that they should. The

1108
00:55:15,360 --> 00:55:19,360
Speaker 4: defense was very disappointing last year, but Elco is taking

1109
00:55:19,400 --> 00:55:22,240
Speaker 4: that on year two. I trust him to get that fixed,

1110
00:55:22,239 --> 00:55:24,919
Speaker 4: and there's a lot to fix. The pass rush zone,

1111
00:55:25,400 --> 00:55:28,160
Speaker 4: their zone coverage, which he has harped on limiting explosives

1112
00:55:28,160 --> 00:55:31,880
Speaker 4: they're run they at times. I think you're gonna get

1113
00:55:31,880 --> 00:55:34,239
Speaker 4: more twelve personnel and offense by the way, and I

1114
00:55:34,280 --> 00:55:36,240
Speaker 4: think you're gonna get more single eye looks on defense,

1115
00:55:36,360 --> 00:55:37,960
Speaker 4: and I think Elko is going to fix a lot

1116
00:55:37,960 --> 00:55:39,839
Speaker 4: of that. You look at the defense. They did lose

1117
00:55:39,880 --> 00:55:42,480
Speaker 4: three to the NFL, but their impact wasn't great. Like

1118
00:55:43,440 --> 00:55:47,160
Speaker 4: I mean, I thought Turner was very overrated. You had

1119
00:55:47,160 --> 00:55:49,759
Speaker 4: some guys in the portal who I like, and you

1120
00:55:50,000 --> 00:55:52,200
Speaker 4: you have some young, talented guys who I think are

1121
00:55:52,200 --> 00:55:54,520
Speaker 4: gonna step up. And I think their defense line is

1122
00:55:54,520 --> 00:55:56,120
Speaker 4: going to be just fine. To be honest, even though

1123
00:55:56,120 --> 00:56:00,920
Speaker 4: they lost three to the NFL. Getting chapel Back I

1124
00:56:00,920 --> 00:56:05,000
Speaker 4: think is huge from injury. You got Williams in York

1125
00:56:05,080 --> 00:56:11,000
Speaker 4: back at linebacker. In the defensive backfield, you they got

1126
00:56:11,080 --> 00:56:12,520
Speaker 4: you got to get ricks out of there, and I

1127
00:56:12,520 --> 00:56:16,240
Speaker 4: think they will. I mean, Rix was was just terrible.

1128
00:56:16,800 --> 00:56:19,080
Speaker 4: Lee's back, He's going to shadowt He's your CB one.

1129
00:56:20,000 --> 00:56:22,480
Speaker 4: You got chapel Back healthy at your nickel, and then

1130
00:56:22,520 --> 00:56:25,360
Speaker 4: you know, you add Humphrey from Georgia. I think that

1131
00:56:25,440 --> 00:56:27,799
Speaker 4: the secondary is going to be upgraded, and I think

1132
00:56:27,840 --> 00:56:30,440
Speaker 4: Elko's impact is going to be huge in year two.

1133
00:56:31,120 --> 00:56:34,759
Speaker 4: Special teams are elite, just can they get help from

1134
00:56:34,760 --> 00:56:36,080
Speaker 4: the passing attack. I mean this is one of the

1135
00:56:36,080 --> 00:56:39,640
Speaker 4: most experienced teams in the country. I trust the run game,

1136
00:56:39,680 --> 00:56:41,560
Speaker 4: I trust Elco to fix the defense. I like some

1137
00:56:41,640 --> 00:56:44,279
Speaker 4: of their additions they had. By the way, one thing

1138
00:56:44,280 --> 00:56:47,120
Speaker 4: with Alabama that I would be worried about that we

1139
00:56:47,120 --> 00:56:53,319
Speaker 4: didn't mention. They're special teams. Definitely worth monitoring because they

1140
00:56:53,320 --> 00:56:57,800
Speaker 4: lost burn Up their punter to the NFL. And kickers

1141
00:56:57,920 --> 00:57:00,680
Speaker 4: they've had Riker and then Nicholson the past two years.

1142
00:57:00,719 --> 00:57:03,640
Speaker 4: So keep an eye on the Alabama special teams something

1143
00:57:03,680 --> 00:57:06,359
Speaker 4: worth monitoring. But Texa A and MS special team should

1144
00:57:06,360 --> 00:57:10,000
Speaker 4: be elite. So I'm gonna buy the upside here with

1145
00:57:10,120 --> 00:57:13,160
Speaker 4: Texas A and M. You look at their schedule. You know,

1146
00:57:13,160 --> 00:57:15,880
Speaker 4: you start utsa Utah State, You're at Notre Dame. That

1147
00:57:15,920 --> 00:57:20,560
Speaker 4: won't be easy, host Auburn, host Mississippi State, host Florida,

1148
00:57:20,840 --> 00:57:24,400
Speaker 4: at Arkansas. I mean there's they can stack some wins

1149
00:57:24,400 --> 00:57:28,360
Speaker 4: here early on in this season. You know at Missouri,

1150
00:57:28,440 --> 00:57:32,920
Speaker 4: I first Arkansas, We're done to Arlington. Yeah, it's weird.

1151
00:57:32,960 --> 00:57:35,720
Speaker 4: It's not in Arlington at Missouri. I think Missouri is

1152
00:57:35,760 --> 00:57:39,120
Speaker 4: down South Carolina skefforld goal this year than Sanford and

1153
00:57:39,160 --> 00:57:41,800
Speaker 4: at Texas. So like at Texas at LSU at Notre

1154
00:57:41,880 --> 00:57:45,040
Speaker 4: Dame are gonna be tough. Yeah, but if some of

1155
00:57:45,040 --> 00:57:48,360
Speaker 4: these other teams fall, they can steal one at Texas

1156
00:57:48,960 --> 00:57:51,000
Speaker 4: and then if I'm I'm betting on them, I lean

1157
00:57:51,040 --> 00:57:52,720
Speaker 4: over on their win total. But I'm taking the Notre

1158
00:57:52,800 --> 00:57:55,680
Speaker 4: Dame out of it, and I'm gonna bet on them,

1159
00:57:55,680 --> 00:57:57,600
Speaker 4: probably to get to the SEC championship, order to win

1160
00:57:57,600 --> 00:57:59,360
Speaker 4: the SEC or to get to the College. I will

1161
00:57:59,360 --> 00:58:02,560
Speaker 4: be betting on some Texas A and M upside. I'm trusting

1162
00:58:02,560 --> 00:58:06,360
Speaker 4: an Alco and I'm trusting this run game and offensive line.

1163
00:58:07,480 --> 00:58:11,400
Speaker 4: Passing game is the big question. But I mean the

1164
00:58:11,400 --> 00:58:13,840
Speaker 4: two teams that I'm gonna buy some of the upside

1165
00:58:13,840 --> 00:58:15,640
Speaker 4: if some of these top teams aren't as good or

1166
00:58:15,640 --> 00:58:18,640
Speaker 4: their quarterback situations don't work out. My two teams are

1167
00:58:18,640 --> 00:58:23,400
Speaker 4: Texas A and M and LSU. Wow, I take it,

1168
00:58:23,440 --> 00:58:24,240
Speaker 4: you disagree.

1169
00:58:24,360 --> 00:58:27,200
Speaker 2: I don't hate Texas A and M. I mean, I

1170
00:58:28,680 --> 00:58:32,480
Speaker 2: Casey conceptci own is just a pleasure to watch this

1171
00:58:32,560 --> 00:58:35,680
Speaker 2: kid catch a ball and run. I mean he's an animal, right.

1172
00:58:35,800 --> 00:58:39,080
Speaker 2: I mean that Portal get from NC State that was

1173
00:58:39,080 --> 00:58:42,440
Speaker 2: one of the best possession receivers over the middle. That

1174
00:58:42,520 --> 00:58:44,360
Speaker 2: maybe people don't know about if you don't watch any

1175
00:58:44,400 --> 00:58:47,960
Speaker 2: acc football running back levy On Moss, if he's healthy

1176
00:58:48,000 --> 00:58:50,360
Speaker 2: once again four point four yards after first contact. I

1177
00:58:50,360 --> 00:58:53,360
Speaker 2: mean that you could see how deflated the Texas A

1178
00:58:53,360 --> 00:58:55,480
Speaker 2: and M offense was once he got hurt last year.

1179
00:58:56,200 --> 00:59:00,400
Speaker 2: He's got to stay healthy. Could be the best offensive

1180
00:59:00,440 --> 00:59:03,080
Speaker 2: line in the nation, led by blindside tackle Trey Zoon.

1181
00:59:03,520 --> 00:59:05,960
Speaker 2: I don't have any complaints about this offense whatsoever other

1182
00:59:06,000 --> 00:59:08,720
Speaker 2: than they have to stay healthy. Have to stay healthy

1183
00:59:08,840 --> 00:59:11,000
Speaker 2: because last year they just popped the tire and it

1184
00:59:11,280 --> 00:59:14,360
Speaker 2: went sideways. What's going on with his defense? They finished

1185
00:59:14,360 --> 00:59:17,840
Speaker 2: one hundred and ninth in tackling. That's very Unelko like.

1186
00:59:18,200 --> 00:59:22,680
Speaker 2: But he's taking overplay calling duties, crumbling with fundamentals just

1187
00:59:22,760 --> 00:59:24,800
Speaker 2: all over the place, and some of the numbers with defense.

1188
00:59:25,320 --> 00:59:26,640
Speaker 2: They were at the gaming.

1189
00:59:26,560 --> 00:59:28,280
Speaker 4: Talked about we don't know how to play zone. We don't.

1190
00:59:28,280 --> 00:59:30,240
Speaker 4: And I think the up of the secondary, like there's

1191
00:59:30,240 --> 00:59:31,480
Speaker 4: a couple of guys there to get out of there

1192
00:59:31,800 --> 00:59:33,080
Speaker 4: that I think you're going to be out of there

1193
00:59:34,600 --> 00:59:38,800
Speaker 4: Ricks in particular, so I and I'm trusting, I'm buying

1194
00:59:38,800 --> 00:59:42,240
Speaker 4: the Alco bump. Still about the secondary, but that That's

1195
00:59:42,240 --> 00:59:45,640
Speaker 4: what I'm buying the upside in Are you fixed? You

1196
00:59:45,640 --> 00:59:49,479
Speaker 4: think you think that's complimentary. If Elco gets this run,

1197
00:59:49,640 --> 00:59:52,320
Speaker 4: if Elco gets the defense, then you're able to rely

1198
00:59:52,400 --> 00:59:54,600
Speaker 4: on the run game more right, And then you don't

1199
00:59:55,120 --> 00:59:57,040
Speaker 4: you don't have to have as good of a passing attack,

1200
00:59:57,240 --> 00:59:59,400
Speaker 4: your defense is struggling, and then you don't have the

1201
00:59:59,440 --> 01:00:01,120
Speaker 4: passing at you're not gonna be able to beat these

1202
01:00:01,120 --> 01:00:03,480
Speaker 4: big boys. So I'm betting on that, Like I know

1203
01:00:03,520 --> 01:00:04,760
Speaker 4: the run game is good, and I'm betting on the

1204
01:00:04,800 --> 01:00:06,080
Speaker 4: Alco bump, which is what I want to bet on

1205
01:00:06,080 --> 01:00:09,840
Speaker 4: the upside rather than their win total.

1206
01:00:10,000 --> 01:00:12,720
Speaker 2: And you think DJ Hicks Albert regis that that they

1207
01:00:12,720 --> 01:00:13,520
Speaker 2: can replace.

1208
01:00:15,160 --> 01:00:18,320
Speaker 4: I mean, like, yeah, I like some of their young

1209
01:00:18,360 --> 01:00:24,320
Speaker 4: talent hol And here's the thing, like they I know

1210
01:00:24,360 --> 01:00:27,560
Speaker 4: that they're really talented, but they weren't as impactful as

1211
01:00:27,600 --> 01:00:30,440
Speaker 4: like their first round grades weren't like what did Stewart

1212
01:00:30,480 --> 01:00:34,480
Speaker 4: have one sack? One and a half sacks? Maybe I

1213
01:00:34,520 --> 01:00:37,280
Speaker 4: don't even know, I might be making that up. Can

1214
01:00:37,320 --> 01:00:40,360
Speaker 4: you look how many? They weren't that impactful. The defense

1215
01:00:40,400 --> 01:00:43,400
Speaker 4: wasn't that great. I don't think it's this herculing task

1216
01:00:43,440 --> 01:00:45,120
Speaker 4: to replace them, So I think they're gonna be fine.

1217
01:00:45,440 --> 01:00:47,840
Speaker 4: On the defensive line, it's just about Alco fixing the

1218
01:00:47,880 --> 01:00:50,080
Speaker 4: back end and the secondary and their fundamentals and the

1219
01:00:50,120 --> 01:00:52,720
Speaker 4: tackling and who if they're in the right position, thing

1220
01:00:52,800 --> 01:00:54,400
Speaker 4: is going to change some things up schematically. So I

1221
01:00:54,440 --> 01:00:56,600
Speaker 4: think that there's some upside there. It could all go

1222
01:00:56,640 --> 01:00:59,480
Speaker 4: to shit, but if it works out, then if the

1223
01:00:59,520 --> 01:01:01,560
Speaker 4: defense is working out, then you can just rely on

1224
01:01:01,560 --> 01:01:03,560
Speaker 4: that run game, which we know is going to be good.

1225
01:01:03,920 --> 01:01:05,880
Speaker 4: But if the defense doesn't work out and then you

1226
01:01:05,960 --> 01:01:08,040
Speaker 4: have to throw more, it's all going to go to ship.

1227
01:01:08,160 --> 01:01:09,360
Speaker 4: I'm trusting in LFL here.

1228
01:01:10,120 --> 01:01:13,040
Speaker 2: I think our focus is single handedly on Texas.

1229
01:01:13,120 --> 01:01:15,080
Speaker 4: I'm in on Auburn right now and locked in on

1230
01:01:15,120 --> 01:01:16,080
Speaker 4: what we got to get done.

1231
01:01:16,440 --> 01:01:18,760
Speaker 2: I gave them a bump of three points in the

1232
01:01:18,760 --> 01:01:21,520
Speaker 2: off season in PR. They are a power rating sixteenth

1233
01:01:21,640 --> 01:01:24,560
Speaker 2: overall rated team. My win total is just below eight,

1234
01:01:25,240 --> 01:01:28,480
Speaker 2: and I don't it's got to be scheduled because I

1235
01:01:28,600 --> 01:01:30,680
Speaker 2: like all these positive factors. I don't disagree with anything

1236
01:01:30,720 --> 01:01:32,960
Speaker 2: that you've said, But is it the schedule right? What

1237
01:01:33,080 --> 01:01:34,800
Speaker 2: is the ceiling here? Because I don't put them in

1238
01:01:34,920 --> 01:01:39,040
Speaker 2: range of beating notre Dame or Texas or LSU were

1239
01:01:39,040 --> 01:01:40,760
Speaker 2: on there on back to back travel.

1240
01:01:40,960 --> 01:01:42,360
Speaker 4: I think they could be there. I think they could

1241
01:01:42,360 --> 01:01:44,960
Speaker 4: beat Notre Dame. I think they're in range especially really yeah,

1242
01:01:45,080 --> 01:01:48,360
Speaker 4: that's where probably our difference is. Like I only think

1243
01:01:48,400 --> 01:01:52,880
Speaker 4: that Notre Dame minus seven, Yeah, I have that at three.

1244
01:01:53,160 --> 01:01:54,320
Speaker 2: I don't. I don't want to disagree with you.

1245
01:01:54,360 --> 01:01:57,280
Speaker 4: I like Texas, adem I just Notre Dame. If I

1246
01:01:57,360 --> 01:01:59,760
Speaker 4: hear I'm not hearing great things about the quarterback. Is

1247
01:01:59,800 --> 01:02:00,960
Speaker 4: there a Game of the Year line? I mean, I'm

1248
01:02:01,000 --> 01:02:02,760
Speaker 4: sure I'm lower than the what the market is going

1249
01:02:02,800 --> 01:02:05,600
Speaker 4: to be on that, but that's where I am. So

1250
01:02:05,760 --> 01:02:06,120
Speaker 4: we'll see.

1251
01:02:06,160 --> 01:02:08,440
Speaker 2: We have fun. You're the year the LSU guy, what

1252
01:02:08,440 --> 01:02:10,280
Speaker 2: do you make there? I make an LC minus nine

1253
01:02:10,680 --> 01:02:12,760
Speaker 2: five and A yeah, that's what the number is. A

1254
01:02:12,800 --> 01:02:19,080
Speaker 2: DK I'm not going to get. I like Texas A

1255
01:02:19,080 --> 01:02:20,120
Speaker 2: and M better and like LSU.

1256
01:02:20,800 --> 01:02:22,520
Speaker 4: On the upside is it probably an eight or nine

1257
01:02:22,520 --> 01:02:25,600
Speaker 4: win team, but there could be some casts and if

1258
01:02:25,840 --> 01:02:29,280
Speaker 4: I'm trusting an Elco, I can trust in this running game,

1259
01:02:29,320 --> 01:02:32,480
Speaker 4: this offensive line. All right, Thanks Colin for joining me,

1260
01:02:33,120 --> 01:02:35,000
Speaker 4: Thanks to our producers always, most potly thanks to all of

1261
01:02:35,000 --> 01:02:36,920
Speaker 4: you for tuning in. Make sure you subscribe on subcribe

1262
01:02:36,920 --> 01:02:38,200
Speaker 4: subscribe to leave a five story if do they really

1263
01:02:38,200 --> 01:02:39,520
Speaker 4: help us out this time of the year. We're gonna

1264
01:02:39,560 --> 01:02:41,720
Speaker 4: do some giveaways, some fun stuff. You can say whatever

1265
01:02:41,720 --> 01:02:43,720
Speaker 4: you want. You can say I'm an idiot for liking

1266
01:02:43,840 --> 01:02:46,080
Speaker 4: LSU or Collins, an idiot for whatever. Just leave a

1267
01:02:46,080 --> 01:02:47,360
Speaker 4: five star review that help us out this time of

1268
01:02:47,400 --> 01:02:50,840
Speaker 4: the year. We'll back shortly with part two. We will

1269
01:02:50,880 --> 01:02:54,800
Speaker 4: be covering that second tier of teams. It's gonna be

1270
01:02:54,960 --> 01:02:58,840
Speaker 4: a fun one. So we will see you on the

1271
01:02:58,880 --> 01:03:03,680
Speaker 4: other side for Florida, Auburn, Ole, miss Owe, You sc Tennessee, Missouri,

1272
01:03:03,760 --> 01:03:05,560
Speaker 4: and Bandy Cheers. Peace Out.

1273
01:03:14,720 --> 01:03:19,240
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1274
01:03:19,280 --> 01:03:22,080
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1275
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