1
00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:04,960
Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Ju us proud read.

2
00:00:05,200 --> 00:00:14,400
Speaker 2: Enough, No, we're running again, so smoothe so sweet, splendid

3
00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:19,400
Speaker 2: sixteen just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for is

4
00:00:19,480 --> 00:00:22,520
Speaker 2: sixty percent effort four thousand percent of the time.

5
00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:25,480
Speaker 1: How shot with that? Shop with mind?

6
00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:26,680
Speaker 2: Good buddy, and.

7
00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:30,720
Speaker 3: That's why you see your beautiful tiers. Look at his movements,

8
00:00:30,880 --> 00:00:31,360
Speaker 3: the most.

9
00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:32,280
Speaker 2: Dangerous amount of the planet.

10
00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:33,040
Speaker 3: Nobody picks them.

11
00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:42,400
Speaker 4: Shut up, I'm trying the one.

12
00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:45,440
Speaker 2: It's left too, the wide eyed.

13
00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:47,040
Speaker 4: Drilled bibus.

14
00:00:47,680 --> 00:00:53,599
Speaker 1: How old earth pick that happens? Hello everyone, Welcome back

15
00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:56,520
Speaker 1: to Wondergol, the soccer betting podcast from the Action Network.

16
00:00:56,600 --> 00:01:00,480
Speaker 1: My name is Michael Leeba, joining me as always for

17
00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:03,920
Speaker 1: this handicapping journey through the English Premier League. Will go

18
00:01:03,960 --> 00:01:07,280
Speaker 1: match my match, Then we'll take a jaunt through Europe

19
00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:11,960
Speaker 1: Bundesliga cloud Bach versus Bayern week that's a big deal

20
00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:15,960
Speaker 1: to Anthony. We'll touch on League oh La Ligasiria a

21
00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:19,440
Speaker 1: give out our three leg underdog parlay. It's another doozy

22
00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:23,600
Speaker 1: this week. Things almost got started pretty well with last

23
00:01:23,600 --> 00:01:26,280
Speaker 1: week's when Forrest went up to a nil on United,

24
00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:28,480
Speaker 1: but this week's even bigger. Last week was what one

25
00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:31,040
Speaker 1: seventy seven to one? This one is coming in over

26
00:01:31,040 --> 00:01:34,280
Speaker 1: two hundred to one, so be sure to stick around

27
00:01:34,319 --> 00:01:36,399
Speaker 1: for that, and then we'll give out our best bets

28
00:01:36,440 --> 00:01:39,840
Speaker 1: in the Premier League. But before I bring in BJ

29
00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:45,480
Speaker 1: and Antony to discuss the upcoming European Soccer weekend, a

30
00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:48,920
Speaker 1: reminder that Wonder Goal is proudly presented by Bet three

31
00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:51,320
Speaker 1: six five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign up with

32
00:01:51,320 --> 00:01:53,720
Speaker 1: promo code Action to get BET three six fives exclusive

33
00:01:53,760 --> 00:01:56,440
Speaker 1: sign up offer. Bet one dollar on any game, get

34
00:01:56,440 --> 00:01:59,040
Speaker 1: two hundred dollars in bonus bets. You must be twenty

35
00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:03,200
Speaker 1: one or older. Is available in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia,

36
00:02:03,280 --> 00:02:06,040
Speaker 1: and Bjy's home state of Iowa in the United States.

37
00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:07,720
Speaker 1: And if you have a gambling problem where you know

38
00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:10,679
Speaker 1: anyone with a gambling problem, please call or text one

39
00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:16,280
Speaker 1: eight one hundred gambler. All right, BJ, Anthony, we'll get

40
00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:19,640
Speaker 1: right into this Premier League slate. Ten matches to go

41
00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:23,600
Speaker 1: through and will start Sunday morning, eleven thirty am Eastern time. BJ.

42
00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:28,080
Speaker 1: You're Arsenal the Gunners minus one twenty five hosting Manchester

43
00:02:28,200 --> 00:02:32,280
Speaker 1: United plus three thirty three. The draw is plus two

44
00:02:32,320 --> 00:02:35,040
Speaker 1: seventy five on the three way money line. Of course,

45
00:02:35,080 --> 00:02:38,359
Speaker 1: those odds are from Bett three six five. You two

46
00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:43,320
Speaker 1: were both in agreement. I don't really have anything here.

47
00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:47,960
Speaker 1: I would think that Arsenal looks like a little overvalued,

48
00:02:47,960 --> 00:02:53,000
Speaker 1: but you're gonna tell me otherwise, bj oh, of course.

49
00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:54,560
Speaker 3: I mean I feel like I have to be Ersenal

50
00:02:54,600 --> 00:02:59,720
Speaker 3: here right against my hated Manchester United, and I mean, listen,

51
00:02:59,800 --> 00:03:02,600
Speaker 3: arsen They've been fine to begin the season. I don't

52
00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:03,919
Speaker 3: think you can sit here and say, oh my gosh,

53
00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:06,040
Speaker 3: they've been amazing. But I don't think it's time to

54
00:03:06,120 --> 00:03:08,040
Speaker 3: hit the panic button because they got caught on the

55
00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:12,080
Speaker 3: wrong side of some variants against Fulham Arsenal. They have

56
00:03:12,120 --> 00:03:15,760
Speaker 3: shown some cracks defensively, but they've only conceded two point

57
00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:18,520
Speaker 3: eight expected goals through three matches. That's second lowest Holy

58
00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:21,520
Speaker 3: City in the Premier League. So through three matches, so

59
00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:25,320
Speaker 3: I'm not really concerned about the defense. We'll see if

60
00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:27,839
Speaker 3: Gabrielle gets back into the side and if they push

61
00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:29,560
Speaker 3: Ben White out to right back and give themselves a

62
00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:32,440
Speaker 3: little more solidity, or if we continue to see Thomas

63
00:03:32,480 --> 00:03:35,400
Speaker 3: Party at right back. Whatever but this is more of

64
00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:38,800
Speaker 3: a bet against Manchester United, who is going through a

65
00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:42,040
Speaker 3: little bit of a transition period. Tactically, ten hoggis come

66
00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:43,880
Speaker 3: out and he says he wants to turn Manchester United

67
00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:46,720
Speaker 3: into the best transition team in the world. So what

68
00:03:46,760 --> 00:03:49,040
Speaker 3: you're seeing from United is they are playing much much

69
00:03:49,040 --> 00:03:52,600
Speaker 3: more aggressive with their pressing, trying to get forward. They

70
00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:55,840
Speaker 3: have forced forty one high turnovers through three matches, that

71
00:03:55,960 --> 00:03:58,280
Speaker 3: is the most of anybody in the Premier League. But

72
00:03:58,320 --> 00:04:01,720
Speaker 3: they've also been exposed in transition. You saw that again

73
00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:03,960
Speaker 3: Stottingham for us, You've seen it against Wolves, You've seen

74
00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:06,080
Speaker 3: it against Tottenham, and now you're going to be facing

75
00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:10,720
Speaker 3: Arsenal who destroyed you at the Emirates last season three

76
00:04:10,720 --> 00:04:13,840
Speaker 3: to two, three point one unexpected goals to point four.

77
00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:17,320
Speaker 3: Basically it was just Marcus Rashford had a banger from

78
00:04:17,360 --> 00:04:21,240
Speaker 3: outside the box Lessandra Martinez scored off a goalkeeping air

79
00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:24,080
Speaker 3: and that's all United really did against Arsenal, and Arsenal

80
00:04:24,279 --> 00:04:28,440
Speaker 3: just basically lived inside of the United's penalty area. Twenty

81
00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:31,159
Speaker 3: eight to five were shots in that match. I know

82
00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:34,880
Speaker 3: Casamiro didn't play, but if United's going to continue because

83
00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:36,800
Speaker 3: obviously now and then we'll get to the injuries in

84
00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:38,680
Speaker 3: a second. But if they're going to continue just playing

85
00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:42,720
Speaker 3: Casamiro and hoping that he can just clean up every

86
00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:45,880
Speaker 3: single transitional attack, it's just not going to happen. And

87
00:04:45,880 --> 00:04:48,880
Speaker 3: now they're gonna be without varn for an extended period

88
00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:52,040
Speaker 3: of time. Who is eight an elite defender at stopping

89
00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:54,640
Speaker 3: those transition one on one attacks. It's not that, it's

90
00:04:54,640 --> 00:04:57,440
Speaker 3: probably gonna be Linda Lola off alongside Lessandra Martinez. Then

91
00:04:57,440 --> 00:05:00,000
Speaker 3: you go to left back Luke Shaw's hurt, their second

92
00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:03,000
Speaker 3: Troyce Melissya is hurt. It's not playing Diego Dallo out

93
00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:07,080
Speaker 3: of position. There's so much going wrong here for United

94
00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:09,480
Speaker 3: in this aspect. And then we also get to the

95
00:05:09,560 --> 00:05:11,919
Speaker 3: stat that I always bring up, but United against the

96
00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:14,560
Speaker 3: top nine teams away from home last season picked up

97
00:05:14,960 --> 00:05:17,720
Speaker 3: nine points or two points. Excuse me. They've already lost

98
00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:21,640
Speaker 3: against Tottenham in London, and now you're going to Arsenal,

99
00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:23,800
Speaker 3: who is still I think still one of the best

100
00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:27,120
Speaker 3: teams in the Premier League. Obviously Arsenal should control out

101
00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:30,200
Speaker 3: of possession here. It's basically just if United can be

102
00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:32,000
Speaker 3: clinical with their counter attacks, but if they're going to

103
00:05:32,040 --> 00:05:34,200
Speaker 3: continue to play Christian Eriks in which they have to

104
00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:36,840
Speaker 3: because Mason Mount is hert They're gonna be in a

105
00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:39,800
Speaker 3: lot of trouble. So I do like Arsenal. I only

106
00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:42,240
Speaker 3: projected them at minus one seventeen, but because of the

107
00:05:42,279 --> 00:05:46,320
Speaker 3: injuries for United, I think you have to downgrade them

108
00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:49,240
Speaker 3: pretty significantly. And also o'nanna is just not a great

109
00:05:49,240 --> 00:05:51,160
Speaker 3: shot stop right. Know Anthony has said that quite a bit,

110
00:05:51,200 --> 00:05:52,719
Speaker 3: but if you're gonna be pinned in for most of

111
00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:55,480
Speaker 3: this match, you don't have David Dehaya to save you anymore.

112
00:05:55,600 --> 00:05:58,960
Speaker 3: So it's a really really difficult spot here for United,

113
00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:01,640
Speaker 3: and I think Arsenal is gonna blow them out.

114
00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:04,720
Speaker 2: A lot of confidence.

115
00:06:05,120 --> 00:06:08,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I feel like it's too much, but I agree

116
00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:12,160
Speaker 1: it's I feel like Arsenal's being priced as if the

117
00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:16,000
Speaker 1: first three matches of the season didn't happen, and they did, they.

118
00:06:15,920 --> 00:06:17,000
Speaker 3: Were fine in those three matches.

119
00:06:16,960 --> 00:06:18,200
Speaker 2: I think it's I think you can make a case

120
00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:19,880
Speaker 2: that both teams kind of are I don't know, like

121
00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:22,000
Speaker 2: I was lower than the market on both teams coming

122
00:06:22,040 --> 00:06:25,680
Speaker 2: into the season. They got made that evidently clear every

123
00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:28,160
Speaker 2: episode of this podcast that we do. But I think

124
00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:31,400
Speaker 2: there are some more encouraging team news situation here for

125
00:06:31,520 --> 00:06:34,960
Speaker 2: Arsenal because we don't know the status of Gabrielle. We

126
00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:37,560
Speaker 2: don't know the status of Gabrielle Jesus, but I think

127
00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:40,080
Speaker 2: both of them coming in would make major upgrades. They

128
00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:43,239
Speaker 2: played Thomas Party at right back. I think that's dangerous

129
00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:46,280
Speaker 2: in this matchup because we saw Tottenham get exploited in

130
00:06:46,360 --> 00:06:50,359
Speaker 2: that first half with poor o high turnovers leading to

131
00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:52,880
Speaker 2: United big scoring chances that you know, ultimately they didn't

132
00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:55,839
Speaker 2: score them, but they created them. And I think that,

133
00:06:56,000 --> 00:06:58,520
Speaker 2: you know, Arsenal was so much better once Zinchenko came

134
00:06:58,560 --> 00:07:01,560
Speaker 2: on against Fulham, So getting him in there and getting

135
00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:03,600
Speaker 2: Ben White in there, I think makes them so much

136
00:07:03,640 --> 00:07:06,719
Speaker 2: better in the build up and getting the midfielders and

137
00:07:06,839 --> 00:07:09,680
Speaker 2: kind of building out from there, whereas Party like got

138
00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:12,280
Speaker 2: caught a couple of times and led to transitions. And

139
00:07:13,120 --> 00:07:16,080
Speaker 2: that's the reason Fulham got a point. Really was was

140
00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:18,520
Speaker 2: I thought Party played poorly and just really doesn't fit

141
00:07:18,560 --> 00:07:21,240
Speaker 2: the role that well. And Jesus, I think is an

142
00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:23,560
Speaker 2: upgrade over in Nikatya. You know, I've talked about Eddie

143
00:07:23,600 --> 00:07:25,720
Speaker 2: and how he gets shots and that's fine, but he

144
00:07:25,720 --> 00:07:28,080
Speaker 2: doesn't do nearly as much in the build up and

145
00:07:28,360 --> 00:07:31,320
Speaker 2: doesn't have nearly as much passing or dribbling ability compared

146
00:07:31,320 --> 00:07:33,120
Speaker 2: to Jesus, and I think Jesus is a better fit.

147
00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:35,360
Speaker 2: So you know, he just came off the bench, So

148
00:07:35,400 --> 00:07:37,800
Speaker 2: what's his status. That's a that's a major question mark

149
00:07:38,160 --> 00:07:39,720
Speaker 2: for this match. But yeah, I mean I still have

150
00:07:39,840 --> 00:07:42,680
Speaker 2: Arsenal clearly ahead of United, and then so once you

151
00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:44,640
Speaker 2: factor in home field, I do make Arsenal a bigger

152
00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:48,160
Speaker 2: favorite here. United. You talked about the injuries defensively, that's

153
00:07:48,200 --> 00:07:51,240
Speaker 2: a concern. They may get Hoylanden, but I'm not sure

154
00:07:51,360 --> 00:07:54,000
Speaker 2: based on Tenna's comments, you know, it was you know,

155
00:07:54,040 --> 00:07:56,560
Speaker 2: he was able to train this week and thus has

156
00:07:56,600 --> 00:07:58,200
Speaker 2: a chance to make the squad, So I don't think

157
00:07:58,240 --> 00:07:59,680
Speaker 2: we're going to see him start. I think he may

158
00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:03,320
Speaker 2: making Cameo off the bench, and that does help them

159
00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:06,360
Speaker 2: because it pushes Rashford out wide, and you know, they're

160
00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:09,840
Speaker 2: not so reliant on Casimiro, who actually has produced the

161
00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:12,760
Speaker 2: most expected goals for United this year so far, which

162
00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:18,120
Speaker 2: is kind of amazing non penalty that is. But you know,

163
00:08:18,640 --> 00:08:21,880
Speaker 2: I think that United flaws were kind of like perfectly

164
00:08:21,960 --> 00:08:24,800
Speaker 2: encapsulated in those opening minutes where when Mount comes in

165
00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:26,840
Speaker 2: for Eric, when Erickson comes in for Mount, who's hurt.

166
00:08:27,080 --> 00:08:29,640
Speaker 2: They are so much more relying on those two guys

167
00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:32,719
Speaker 2: Martinez and Casimir to stop everything. And they're looking more

168
00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:35,800
Speaker 2: and more like the i Ax ten hog that we

169
00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:40,160
Speaker 2: saw that was extremely vulnerable defensively, and so you know,

170
00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:42,120
Speaker 2: United will get to play off the ball more here.

171
00:08:42,240 --> 00:08:45,120
Speaker 2: They are naturally better that way. I will still say that,

172
00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:50,000
Speaker 2: but Arsenal just has a lot more consistent attacking firepower

173
00:08:50,600 --> 00:08:53,040
Speaker 2: and a much sturdier defense. So I'm gonna wait for

174
00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:54,880
Speaker 2: team news a little bit here, and you know it's

175
00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:57,280
Speaker 2: only Wednesday night we're recording this, so I haven't actually

176
00:08:57,280 --> 00:08:59,920
Speaker 2: bet this match yet, but you know, see what our

177
00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:02,760
Speaker 2: Teta says Friday and probably gonna end up firing, assuming

178
00:09:02,800 --> 00:09:05,560
Speaker 2: that you know we're getting jay esus Zinchenko Ben White here.

179
00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:07,960
Speaker 2: If it is part A, I'm gonna have to think

180
00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:12,080
Speaker 2: about it a little more because I really don't trust

181
00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:16,000
Speaker 2: them in that situation. But I do still like the

182
00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:17,439
Speaker 2: gunners here if anything.

183
00:09:17,480 --> 00:09:19,280
Speaker 3: And I think why you're seeing party at right back

184
00:09:19,360 --> 00:09:21,720
Speaker 3: right now, it's because Sinshenko hasn't really been healthy. So

185
00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:24,440
Speaker 3: if Arteta wants to invert somebody in the middle of pitch,

186
00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:26,160
Speaker 3: which he really does want to and now that obviously

187
00:09:26,160 --> 00:09:29,360
Speaker 3: Timber's hurt, he's not going to do with Kiwar He's

188
00:09:29,360 --> 00:09:31,800
Speaker 3: not going to do it necessarily to tell me aso

189
00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:34,480
Speaker 3: if he's going to play left back. So he's putting

190
00:09:34,480 --> 00:09:36,600
Speaker 3: party on the pitch to invert him to middle in

191
00:09:36,679 --> 00:09:39,240
Speaker 3: the middle there, so it's against team like United. I agree.

192
00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:42,480
Speaker 3: I think I would like to see Gabriel alongside Sleeve,

193
00:09:42,520 --> 00:09:44,120
Speaker 3: but with Ben White pushed out to write back, which

194
00:09:44,160 --> 00:09:46,520
Speaker 3: is what you saw for most last season. Allowings in

195
00:09:46,559 --> 00:09:48,640
Speaker 3: Chenko told be the one that inverts in the middle

196
00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:50,400
Speaker 3: of pitch. He's the one who really conducted that win

197
00:09:50,440 --> 00:09:52,640
Speaker 3: over over United last season was really really good in

198
00:09:52,679 --> 00:09:55,400
Speaker 3: the middle of the pitch. So let's hope we see

199
00:09:55,400 --> 00:09:56,199
Speaker 3: that on Sunday.

200
00:09:56,320 --> 00:09:58,760
Speaker 2: Two point XG is not bad for Arsenal, But they

201
00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:03,160
Speaker 2: also haven't played anybody, right, Yeah, that's my point. It's like,

202
00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:06,480
Speaker 2: I mean, also like they've been really bad their bottom

203
00:10:06,520 --> 00:10:10,440
Speaker 2: five in like every defensive metric. United hasn't really played

204
00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:13,360
Speaker 2: an elite attack either. I know you don't. You guys

205
00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:16,600
Speaker 2: like Tottenham more than I do. But they they they

206
00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:22,040
Speaker 2: haven't played like any like Wolves Forest and Tottenham is

207
00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:23,320
Speaker 2: not like.

208
00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:27,760
Speaker 1: Attacking the line to me just doesn't make sense because

209
00:10:27,760 --> 00:10:31,480
Speaker 1: I don't think either has made much sense to begin

210
00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:36,240
Speaker 1: the season either, So I'll probably be passing all right.

211
00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:38,559
Speaker 1: So that's Sunday at eleven thirty. Will now jump back

212
00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:42,800
Speaker 1: to Friday ribbon cutting. Little ribbon cutting for the Premier

213
00:10:42,880 --> 00:10:46,400
Speaker 1: League at Kenilworth Road, Newton Town's first Premier League match

214
00:10:46,920 --> 00:10:51,520
Speaker 1: at home since nineteen ninety six. I believe, so good

215
00:10:51,520 --> 00:10:55,319
Speaker 1: on you to the hatters. They're big home underdog plus

216
00:10:55,320 --> 00:11:04,360
Speaker 1: three seventy five hosting west Ham who Man, we read

217
00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:08,760
Speaker 1: them wrong right after the case David Moyes is he

218
00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:11,000
Speaker 1: might might get the He might be the next manager

219
00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:13,360
Speaker 1: at Man City with the way he's he's put this

220
00:11:13,400 --> 00:11:15,760
Speaker 1: team through the first three matches wes Hams minus went

221
00:11:15,840 --> 00:11:19,000
Speaker 1: thirty four and the draws plus two seventy five. I'm

222
00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:21,440
Speaker 1: going into uh into my toolbox here one of my

223
00:11:21,480 --> 00:11:24,120
Speaker 1: favorite bets to make. I haven't made this one yet

224
00:11:24,160 --> 00:11:27,440
Speaker 1: this season. Last time I made it was US women's

225
00:11:27,559 --> 00:11:32,200
Speaker 1: national team against Sweden and a cash the old nil

226
00:11:32,280 --> 00:11:36,920
Speaker 1: nil ten to one. I'll tell you why. So west

227
00:11:36,920 --> 00:11:41,960
Speaker 1: Ham has come out of the gates, firing scoring a

228
00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:45,760
Speaker 1: ton for for Compared to what we expected out of them,

229
00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:48,360
Speaker 1: games have been pretty open. They've been a little lucky

230
00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:55,360
Speaker 1: defensively as well. Looton Town. They're giving up goals in

231
00:11:55,400 --> 00:11:59,440
Speaker 1: their two matches obviously, They've they've struggled tough, tough opening

232
00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:02,320
Speaker 1: first two matches as well. Like schedule maker didn't make

233
00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:06,320
Speaker 1: do them any favors obviously, So I just think that

234
00:12:06,400 --> 00:12:09,640
Speaker 1: this match screams looting Town at home in front of

235
00:12:09,679 --> 00:12:13,920
Speaker 1: their own fans, going and just doing everything they can

236
00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:15,680
Speaker 1: to keep the ball out of the back of the net,

237
00:12:16,040 --> 00:12:18,880
Speaker 1: like stay in this game as long as possible, and

238
00:12:18,920 --> 00:12:20,920
Speaker 1: I don't think that west Ham set up to beat

239
00:12:20,920 --> 00:12:25,400
Speaker 1: a team that does that. So I think this could

240
00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:27,200
Speaker 1: be just two walls staring at each other for a

241
00:12:27,200 --> 00:12:30,000
Speaker 1: while in front of a raucous home crowd at Kenilworth Road.

242
00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:32,760
Speaker 1: And what better way to welcome the Hatters back to

243
00:12:32,800 --> 00:12:35,720
Speaker 1: the Premier League get home than a nice nil nil

244
00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:39,240
Speaker 1: on Friday night lights. I think this is gonna be

245
00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:41,640
Speaker 1: a very low event match, so I'll take a little

246
00:12:41,679 --> 00:12:45,080
Speaker 1: piece of ten to one nil nil BJ. What do

247
00:12:45,120 --> 00:12:45,400
Speaker 1: you think?

248
00:12:47,920 --> 00:12:52,520
Speaker 3: I think that I'm in a big conundrum here, I'm

249
00:12:52,520 --> 00:12:55,679
Speaker 3: gonna pass, but this is the spot if you ever

250
00:12:55,720 --> 00:13:01,520
Speaker 3: wanted to bet Town. They were not good for I'd

251
00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:04,160
Speaker 3: say sixty minutes of that match against Chelsea, But what

252
00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:07,559
Speaker 3: I will say, Michael is they did something that through

253
00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:10,320
Speaker 3: the great Marisia Poachatino for a loop and he didn't

254
00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:13,600
Speaker 3: really know what to do there for thirty minutes. Loutontown

255
00:13:13,720 --> 00:13:16,000
Speaker 3: last season in the Championship was the most direct team.

256
00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:19,439
Speaker 3: Eighty percent of their goalkicks went long, like they just

257
00:13:19,559 --> 00:13:21,640
Speaker 3: basically tried to win duels in the middle of the pitch,

258
00:13:21,679 --> 00:13:24,679
Speaker 3: and it's not really shocking that Chelsea sat off. They

259
00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:26,520
Speaker 3: didn't want to press high because they were like, well,

260
00:13:26,520 --> 00:13:28,160
Speaker 3: they're just going to send the ball along, so let's

261
00:13:28,160 --> 00:13:30,040
Speaker 3: focus on winning those duels in the middle of the pitch.

262
00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:33,440
Speaker 3: Then after about thirty minutes after the first goal went in,

263
00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:37,400
Speaker 3: Rob Edwards just like let's just start building out of

264
00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:39,480
Speaker 3: the back, and it kind of throw Chelsea for a

265
00:13:39,520 --> 00:13:42,080
Speaker 3: loop where they're where Enzo and Caseda were playing so

266
00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:44,600
Speaker 3: deep and they're like, wait, do we do we come

267
00:13:44,679 --> 00:13:46,560
Speaker 3: up and press these guys? Do we sit deep or

268
00:13:46,600 --> 00:13:49,160
Speaker 3: like what do we do here? And Lutontown started to

269
00:13:49,240 --> 00:13:52,000
Speaker 3: kind of grow into that match, and I'd say from

270
00:13:52,040 --> 00:13:54,560
Speaker 3: about mint thirty to minute sixty, like they were on

271
00:13:54,640 --> 00:13:57,000
Speaker 3: par and even with Chelsea. But that's about the peak

272
00:13:57,040 --> 00:13:59,079
Speaker 3: that you have with Lutontown right now that they can't

273
00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:00,600
Speaker 3: beyond that thy minutes.

274
00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:02,040
Speaker 1: It was bad.

275
00:14:02,120 --> 00:14:04,880
Speaker 3: So maybe as the season goes along they'll get better

276
00:14:04,920 --> 00:14:06,560
Speaker 3: and grow into this, but the talent gap is so

277
00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:10,400
Speaker 3: wide between them and Chelsea. And you know, looking back

278
00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:11,880
Speaker 3: on it, was it a bad bet? Yeah, sure it

279
00:14:11,920 --> 00:14:16,120
Speaker 3: was betting Luton Town against Chelsea. But again, if you we,

280
00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:18,360
Speaker 3: west Ham is overvalied here, like there is just no

281
00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:21,560
Speaker 3: place on earth that they should be minus one forty

282
00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:24,240
Speaker 3: or minus one twenty, whatever they're at right now. I

283
00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:28,720
Speaker 3: protected them at plus one nineteen. This is the spot

284
00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:31,720
Speaker 3: home opener, Lutontown at home. They just got killed by

285
00:14:31,800 --> 00:14:35,040
Speaker 3: Chelsea and Brighton, who are way better. And I still think,

286
00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:38,440
Speaker 3: you know, Chelsea is obviously better than west Ham and

287
00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:41,200
Speaker 3: west Ham is gonna be really good when they can

288
00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:44,200
Speaker 3: play David moist ball, sit back like they did against

289
00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:46,480
Speaker 3: Brighton and just play on the counter. Edison Alvarez is

290
00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:49,280
Speaker 3: a boy. He's a really really good addition. For them

291
00:14:49,520 --> 00:14:50,920
Speaker 3: in the middle of the pitch. He clogged up the

292
00:14:50,960 --> 00:14:53,040
Speaker 3: middle of the pitch and allowed Brighten tone nothing through there.

293
00:14:53,440 --> 00:14:54,760
Speaker 3: But this is a match where they're gonna have to

294
00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:56,600
Speaker 3: have to have ball, Michael. They're gonna have to both

295
00:14:56,720 --> 00:14:58,080
Speaker 3: the back, They're gonna have to break them down. They're

296
00:14:58,080 --> 00:14:58,560
Speaker 3: gonna have to play.

297
00:14:58,560 --> 00:14:59,960
Speaker 1: That's why I'm saying, man, this.

298
00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:04,960
Speaker 3: So if you streams town, I think this is the

299
00:15:05,000 --> 00:15:08,800
Speaker 3: spot to back them, But I don't think I can

300
00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:09,160
Speaker 3: do it.

301
00:15:09,800 --> 00:15:11,560
Speaker 1: Anthony, Yeah, I agree.

302
00:15:11,920 --> 00:15:14,000
Speaker 2: I agree with bj pretty much everything he said, although

303
00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:17,160
Speaker 2: except the part about the thirty minutes to the sixty minute.

304
00:15:17,160 --> 00:15:20,840
Speaker 3: I mean it was they were on par with them.

305
00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:22,040
Speaker 3: They were growing into the match.

306
00:15:23,000 --> 00:15:25,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, and then they then they got and it was over.

307
00:15:25,720 --> 00:15:27,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, of course that happens, But like for thirty minutes,

308
00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:29,560
Speaker 3: they were kind of on par with them.

309
00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:34,040
Speaker 2: Hang the banner. The banner played even with like the

310
00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:36,880
Speaker 2: sixth best team in the league on the road three

311
00:15:36,960 --> 00:15:40,080
Speaker 2: minutes in the second match of the season. Now, like

312
00:15:41,160 --> 00:15:42,920
Speaker 2: it's true, like these are the two teams through three

313
00:15:42,920 --> 00:15:44,920
Speaker 2: matches that had the lowest possession in the league. West

314
00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:48,160
Speaker 2: Ham's the twenty nine percent through three matches, Yet they

315
00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:51,920
Speaker 2: have seven points. They played three teams who really want

316
00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:54,280
Speaker 2: to have the ball, and they let all three of

317
00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:56,720
Speaker 2: those teams have the ball and then we're really good

318
00:15:56,720 --> 00:15:58,280
Speaker 2: on the counter. But we've seen this with west Ham.

319
00:15:58,360 --> 00:16:00,400
Speaker 2: I mean, why was west Ham in the relegations last

320
00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:02,960
Speaker 2: year for part of the season until they figured some

321
00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:06,800
Speaker 2: things out and you know, ran better. They ran really poorly, yes,

322
00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:12,200
Speaker 2: but they were not good against the bottom teams that

323
00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:15,320
Speaker 2: are around them at getting margin and separating from them because

324
00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:20,680
Speaker 2: they were really bad in you know, settled possession. So

325
00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:22,680
Speaker 2: this is going to be the real test for them.

326
00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:24,960
Speaker 2: It would be looting or nothing. For me as well,

327
00:16:26,080 --> 00:16:31,080
Speaker 2: I am growing concern, growing some concern that we may

328
00:16:31,120 --> 00:16:32,560
Speaker 2: not know the floor of some of the bottom teams

329
00:16:32,600 --> 00:16:34,920
Speaker 2: in this league. Yeah, because we talked about this on

330
00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:38,120
Speaker 2: the preview show, like we thought, like, man, these bottom

331
00:16:38,240 --> 00:16:40,960
Speaker 2: seven teams, six teams, they kind of did nothing all

332
00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:45,160
Speaker 2: year in the offseason to get better. And then we said, like, well,

333
00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:46,760
Speaker 2: the top eight, we kind of like a lot of

334
00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:49,200
Speaker 2: these teams relatively and think they break you know, the

335
00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:52,320
Speaker 2: rich get rich or the poor get poor. And if

336
00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:54,160
Speaker 2: that's the case, like west Ham is the team kind

337
00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:56,800
Speaker 2: of in the middle, that would benefit from that by

338
00:16:56,840 --> 00:17:00,320
Speaker 2: beating up the bad teams, and you know, noisy their

339
00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:03,280
Speaker 2: way to some points against the good teams. So yeah,

340
00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:05,200
Speaker 2: from a market perspective, I can't get there on west Ham,

341
00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:07,960
Speaker 2: but if it gets to plus one, I will be

342
00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:11,760
Speaker 2: a happy Luton town backer. But right now I'm three

343
00:17:11,840 --> 00:17:15,000
Speaker 2: quarters all right.

344
00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:18,440
Speaker 1: We're about to talk about Everden, which means that we're

345
00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:21,600
Speaker 1: also going to talk about our sponsor, cal Dara Lab,

346
00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:28,639
Speaker 1: who create high performance men skincare products. And these skincare

347
00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:33,840
Speaker 1: products are built for folks like me, for folks like

348
00:17:34,040 --> 00:17:37,720
Speaker 1: Anthony who had both teams to score Yes and Everdon

349
00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:41,080
Speaker 1: Wolves on Saturday and maybe the drunkest match I've I've

350
00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:42,399
Speaker 1: ever seen BJA saving.

351
00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:43,840
Speaker 2: I'm saving my rants for later.

352
00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:47,200
Speaker 1: PJ had the over in that match and I took

353
00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:50,560
Speaker 1: stolen from me and I bet Everden plus when I

354
00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:53,159
Speaker 1: saw the money come in on Wolves, I was happy

355
00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:56,840
Speaker 1: to take Everden on the money line. All three of

356
00:17:56,880 --> 00:18:00,080
Speaker 1: those bets lost in about his trolling a fashion and

357
00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:02,399
Speaker 1: as you get I don't know who we upset, but

358
00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:05,520
Speaker 1: this brings me back to Caldera Lab, who are perfect

359
00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:09,920
Speaker 1: for Everdon fans and Everden betters because the skincare products

360
00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:13,240
Speaker 1: will help hide the fact that you bet or root

361
00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:16,359
Speaker 1: for Everden, a team that will aid you every Saturday

362
00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:21,199
Speaker 1: from August to May. Their regiment has three products, the

363
00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:23,800
Speaker 1: Clean Slate, the Base Layer, and the Good. The Clean

364
00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:26,520
Speaker 1: Slate starts and ends your day. It's a face wash

365
00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:29,600
Speaker 1: that leaves all skin types afresh. The Base Layer is

366
00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:32,880
Speaker 1: your daily moisturizer to hydrate your skin and jump start

367
00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:35,600
Speaker 1: your day full of confidence. And the Good is your

368
00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:38,479
Speaker 1: go to multi functional serum at night that helps your

369
00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:41,840
Speaker 1: skin look tighter and smoother and reduces the visibility of

370
00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:46,919
Speaker 1: wrinkles from watching Everden, from betting on Everden. And just

371
00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:50,199
Speaker 1: for our audience, we have an exclusive offer. This is

372
00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:55,040
Speaker 1: Caldera's best offer available anywhere. Use the code goal at

373
00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:58,680
Speaker 1: Caldera lab dot com to get twenty percent off right now.

374
00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:03,600
Speaker 1: Once again, that's the code goal at Caldaralay dot com.

375
00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:08,800
Speaker 1: Everton time, Everton will not be scoring many goals ever

376
00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:13,280
Speaker 1: or will jose Saw and Pickford the two best SOFA

377
00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:15,920
Speaker 1: score ratings of the entire year so far in that

378
00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:18,840
Speaker 1: match in goal for Everton and Wolves, so that's part

379
00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:20,760
Speaker 1: of And who was number three I think was burn

380
00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:22,560
Speaker 1: Lena and Lena against Everton.

381
00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:25,240
Speaker 3: We'll get to him, oh my goodness.

382
00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:31,080
Speaker 1: Anyway. So so Sheffield United and Everdon Saturday morning, seven

383
00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:35,719
Speaker 1: thirty am. This one's taking place in Sheffield plus two hundred.

384
00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:39,160
Speaker 1: The Blades are at home, Everton is a road favorite

385
00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:41,560
Speaker 1: plus one forty five on the three way line, and

386
00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:46,120
Speaker 1: the draws plus two twenty. Genuinely, and I honestly mean

387
00:19:46,119 --> 00:19:50,679
Speaker 1: this genuinely, I was just questioning why I do it

388
00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:56,199
Speaker 1: to myself anymore on Saturday. I think I've had like

389
00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:58,720
Speaker 1: little moments of that with with Everton in the past,

390
00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:02,600
Speaker 1: like very little with like the Islanders have had some

391
00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:04,720
Speaker 1: moments like that, But I think I feel like this

392
00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:07,359
Speaker 1: was the biggest one I've had because that that match

393
00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:11,600
Speaker 1: honestly felt like somebody would just scripted it as let's

394
00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:13,639
Speaker 1: just play a joke on this guy that jose Sa

395
00:20:13,840 --> 00:20:18,200
Speaker 1: save Ashley Young straight out of my nightmares. But I

396
00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:20,000
Speaker 1: don't know how you don't back Everton in some way

397
00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:24,560
Speaker 1: here like they're they're creating chances and there they're matches

398
00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:27,960
Speaker 1: against the two teams that I would say are in

399
00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:31,960
Speaker 1: their cohort Fulham and Wolves, and I know those matches

400
00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:34,399
Speaker 1: were at home have been really good, except they just

401
00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:37,080
Speaker 1: don't score and they have one defensive laps and it

402
00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:38,720
Speaker 1: ends up in the back of their net, maybe a

403
00:20:38,760 --> 00:20:41,960
Speaker 1: couple more than one against Wolves. But they should be

404
00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:44,400
Speaker 1: able to create again here and they now have a finisher.

405
00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:47,520
Speaker 1: So I don't know if it's an over or Everton

406
00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:51,000
Speaker 1: team total or the Everdent money line, but I'll I'm

407
00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:53,239
Speaker 1: gonna need more Colt THEA Lab because I'll probably be

408
00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:57,920
Speaker 1: backing Everton. That's in some way your anthony.

409
00:20:58,800 --> 00:20:59,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm taking the week off.

410
00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:05,359
Speaker 1: Well, I mean you're taking three weeks off because we

411
00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:06,960
Speaker 1: got a great Covied.

412
00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:08,280
Speaker 2: We have the Air National break and then we'll be

413
00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:10,479
Speaker 2: back the following weekend. I haven't looked at the schedule yet,

414
00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:13,960
Speaker 2: but well it's yeah, yeah, so I'm taking I'm taking

415
00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:16,680
Speaker 2: the week off. Look, there are spots where I think

416
00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:19,720
Speaker 2: Everton will have betting value this season as a road

417
00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:21,720
Speaker 2: favorite against one of the worst teams in this league.

418
00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:23,960
Speaker 2: I do not think that's one of them. When I

419
00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:25,880
Speaker 2: look at this. You know, Sheffield United is a team

420
00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:27,959
Speaker 2: that I have not bet on or against yet this season.

421
00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:31,239
Speaker 2: I think I'm still kind of gathering more data on

422
00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:33,920
Speaker 2: what they are. The performance against City, Like, I know,

423
00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:35,960
Speaker 2: they tied it late and could have gotten a result there,

424
00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:40,480
Speaker 2: but it was not particularly encouraging given the shot disparity

425
00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:43,320
Speaker 2: and the total domination that City had over that match,

426
00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:46,720
Speaker 2: and probably could have won it going away. You know,

427
00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:50,480
Speaker 2: they hung in their credit to them. But the numbers

428
00:21:50,480 --> 00:21:54,400
Speaker 2: on these promoted teams so far, uh, it's it's alarming.

429
00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:56,800
Speaker 2: So I'm going to pass here.

430
00:21:57,400 --> 00:21:59,600
Speaker 1: I want one bet that I think you should absolutely

431
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:03,359
Speaker 1: consider sprinkling. Is Tom Davis anytime goal scorer for for

432
00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:08,040
Speaker 1: Sheffield United. After he's gonna play, is he's probably even

433
00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:09,800
Speaker 1: if he even if he's on the bench, he will

434
00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:12,320
Speaker 1: come on in the eighty six minute and score. It

435
00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:15,199
Speaker 1: should be it should be one hundred to one. I

436
00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:16,960
Speaker 1: mean actually should be like a thousand.

437
00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:19,520
Speaker 3: Sprinkle like Everton over one and a half goals here.

438
00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:22,399
Speaker 3: Beytell is a great signing, Michael. I'm gonna tell you

439
00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:25,280
Speaker 3: that right now. He's an incredibly He's played an essay

440
00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:28,480
Speaker 3: system that's been primarily transitional for a long time that

441
00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:30,600
Speaker 3: are on a point five xg per minute striker, which

442
00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:33,640
Speaker 3: is the same as Dominie Calvert Lewin. I don't think

443
00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:37,720
Speaker 3: he has much of an injury history. So if he

444
00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:40,080
Speaker 3: can stay healthy and maybe we get Dominie Calvert Lewin back,

445
00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:43,320
Speaker 3: this could be a really good front too. So if

446
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,119
Speaker 3: anything for me would be Everton team total over one

447
00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:47,080
Speaker 3: and a half and plus one fifty. There's no chance

448
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:52,200
Speaker 3: I'm going to back Everton is a road favorite, especially

449
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:55,439
Speaker 3: given how hectic we're pressing.

450
00:22:55,520 --> 00:22:58,080
Speaker 2: Is I'm gonna do Anana was really impressive in the

451
00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:00,480
Speaker 2: Wolves match. I know people have been doing the the

452
00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:02,760
Speaker 2: highlight reels of how well he played in that match.

453
00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:05,560
Speaker 2: I thought he was really impressive in the midfield and

454
00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 2: is still giving them decent production. Like everything except the

455
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:11,400
Speaker 2: penalty area finishing has been good for Everton this year

456
00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:14,920
Speaker 2: relative to expectations. Of course, I don't know how much

457
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:17,840
Speaker 2: betto is gonna save them, you know, like you said,

458
00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:20,320
Speaker 2: BJ zero point four to six x g per ninety

459
00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:26,800
Speaker 2: and SIIA last year. That's okay, that's not like gonna

460
00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:29,560
Speaker 2: come save the team numbers, especially with two and a

461
00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:32,800
Speaker 2: half shots per ninety. But like you said, yeah, he's

462
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:35,520
Speaker 2: a decent dribbler and transition and he does a lot

463
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:37,560
Speaker 2: of defensive work, which I think is the most impressive

464
00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:40,240
Speaker 2: thing about his profile. And while he fits this evererteen team. Well,

465
00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:42,240
Speaker 2: if they want to keep pressing and doing this style,

466
00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:46,840
Speaker 2: there are encouraging signs that may work. And so he can.

467
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:49,200
Speaker 1: I mean, as long as he can hit a three

468
00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:52,720
Speaker 1: foot putt, he'll he'll score because they've.

469
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:55,600
Speaker 2: Read too and like the bar is so long for finishing.

470
00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:58,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, and hey, I mean Cheffley United just lost to

471
00:23:58,080 --> 00:23:59,600
Speaker 3: Lincoln City and in the AFL Cup, and if you

472
00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:01,760
Speaker 3: look at the that they put out there, it's not

473
00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:04,720
Speaker 3: a lot different than the one that they've been playing

474
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:05,480
Speaker 3: so far this season.

475
00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:07,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it Everyden went on the road to

476
00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:13,320
Speaker 1: Doncaster and came from behind. Yeah, Betho and Juma. All right,

477
00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:15,320
Speaker 1: So I'll be on everdon BJ on some sort of

478
00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:18,080
Speaker 1: evident team total. I haven't decided. I might play like

479
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:21,879
Speaker 1: Lea minus one and a half or something. And Anthony's

480
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 1: taking the week off for some reason.

481
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:26,280
Speaker 3: Well, Redford is right out of the international break too,

482
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:29,720
Speaker 3: because yes, who they play Luton play Arsenal at home?

483
00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:31,280
Speaker 1: Great?

484
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 2: Oh you're kidding, I'm not. Oh that's so good man,

485
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:37,080
Speaker 2: that's so good. All right, Well, you know what, I'll

486
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:40,000
Speaker 2: be back in two weeks. I might bet it now,

487
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:41,879
Speaker 2: Maybe I'll bet it now. Just there's already lines up.

488
00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:44,200
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go find a line and maybe I'll fire

489
00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:47,520
Speaker 2: in the app now, just to just to feel something.

490
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 1: All right. Brentford and Bourne Myth. Now, this is at

491
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:55,240
Speaker 1: the Brentford Community Stadium. The Bees minus one thirty eight

492
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:58,400
Speaker 1: at home, Bourne Myth plus three seventy five. On the road,

493
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:03,119
Speaker 1: the Draws plus two eighty. The Andoni Eiola Revolution is

494
00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:06,240
Speaker 1: sputtering out of the gates. But I think we kind

495
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:09,640
Speaker 1: of expected that this is a complete system change, kind

496
00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:12,600
Speaker 1: of philosophy change at the club. But I do think

497
00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:17,600
Speaker 1: eventually that this team will start surprising people, not too

498
00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:21,920
Speaker 1: dissimilar to the team they're playing Brentford on Saturday. I

499
00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:24,080
Speaker 1: like the cherries here. I think that this is a

500
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:27,000
Speaker 1: good price. I think that we're going to see and

501
00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:29,960
Speaker 1: we have seen Brentford get a little flattered by the

502
00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:33,760
Speaker 1: betting market a little bit. I mean, the secret's out

503
00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:37,080
Speaker 1: on this team. It's a solid, solid Premier League club

504
00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:41,680
Speaker 1: and I think that you're gonna have good opportunity to

505
00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:44,399
Speaker 1: invest in the ceiling for Bourne Myth and against a

506
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:47,399
Speaker 1: team that has flaws like Brentford does, it's not a

507
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:49,520
Speaker 1: bad spot. This is this line just looks way too

508
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:53,480
Speaker 1: big for me, so yeah, give me the cherries BJA.

509
00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:56,960
Speaker 1: I know it's a little yeah against the ethos of

510
00:25:56,960 --> 00:26:00,320
Speaker 1: this this podcast to go against Brentford, but when their

511
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:03,240
Speaker 1: mind is what forty, it changes things.

512
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 3: It does change things. Yeah, it's an easy pass here

513
00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 3: for me. Line is about right to where I have

514
00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:13,600
Speaker 3: in the market Bourne myth the press has been kay

515
00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:15,399
Speaker 3: head or miss. I think what's going to happen with

516
00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:17,800
Speaker 3: them is I think you've kind of seen it so far,

517
00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:20,879
Speaker 3: is that when they play elite build up teams like

518
00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:23,320
Speaker 3: they gave Liverpool a little bit of scare for a

519
00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:25,960
Speaker 3: little bit. Then Liverpool changed and things tactically started moving.

520
00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 3: Trent Augson on't a little world wide and Bournemouth really

521
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:31,600
Speaker 3: couldn't press them in wide areas. Then they played against

522
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:35,560
Speaker 3: Tottenham obviously, and Tottenham build up pretty seemingly against them.

523
00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:38,520
Speaker 3: But you know, nine point eight pass per defensive action

524
00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:40,320
Speaker 3: through three matches you already start to kind of see

525
00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:45,760
Speaker 3: the Eeriola changes there, twenty seven high turnovers. But you know, again,

526
00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:49,640
Speaker 3: this is just yeah, right round where I have it projected.

527
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:52,400
Speaker 3: So I think it's an easy pass Brentford.

528
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:53,440
Speaker 1: It spurs Anthony.

529
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:56,280
Speaker 2: There's a lot of injuries here for Bournemouth, right, Like

530
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:58,400
Speaker 2: we have to kind of keep that in consideration because

531
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 2: they have done a decent bit of business here. But

532
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:04,840
Speaker 2: you know, Tavinier is injured, Smith is injured, Adams is

533
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:09,480
Speaker 2: still injured, Fredericks is injured. He's gonna be out of

534
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:11,719
Speaker 2: a while. So like there's a lot of missing pieces

535
00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:14,199
Speaker 2: here for what they want to be, and so I

536
00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:15,879
Speaker 2: think Bournemouth may be a team that maybe we need

537
00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:18,040
Speaker 2: to wait on a little bit. Now the market has

538
00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:21,320
Speaker 2: moved toward Bournemouth a little bit. Like Brentford was minus

539
00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:23,680
Speaker 2: one sixty one sixty five. If you can get a

540
00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:25,840
Speaker 2: plus one, then yes, we're going to bet the Cherries

541
00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 2: here because Brentford as a favorite. Trying to get margin

542
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:33,040
Speaker 2: against a what I think is okay Bournemouth team is

543
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:35,639
Speaker 2: going to be a struggle. But Brentford also, interestingly did

544
00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:40,280
Speaker 2: have sixty percent of the ball against Pallace at home.

545
00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:47,320
Speaker 2: Now that's interesting because Brentford almost never outpossesses their opponents

546
00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:50,480
Speaker 2: in situations where they're even in positive game stags, which

547
00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:54,679
Speaker 2: was the case in that game against Palace. So I

548
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 2: do find it interesting that they were able to keep

549
00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:59,399
Speaker 2: more of the ball in that game, because this is,

550
00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:01,680
Speaker 2: like I said, this team that had over fifty five

551
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:05,240
Speaker 2: percent possession in about five games last year in the league.

552
00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:08,280
Speaker 2: Two of the five they were down early. So that

553
00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 2: plays a big role in kind of, you know, who

554
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:13,440
Speaker 2: has more the ball, So you know, our team's giving

555
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:17,000
Speaker 2: Brentford more respect and kind of adjusting tactically to what

556
00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:19,160
Speaker 2: they've done to this league for two years. I think

557
00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 2: that could be part of the case. But again, like

558
00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:22,639
Speaker 2: Burman is not going to be the team that's going

559
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:24,920
Speaker 2: to do that. Barman's gonna want the ball and Bournemouth

560
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:26,560
Speaker 2: is going to kind of play into Brentford's hands a

561
00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:28,480
Speaker 2: little bit. So it does give me a little bit

562
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:31,320
Speaker 2: of concern from like a tactical perspective as this press

563
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:34,960
Speaker 2: continues to get ironed out, Like we were joking leave

564
00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:38,040
Speaker 2: Off about how Arail is going to get fired on Monday,

565
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:43,240
Speaker 2: Like they've played three really you know, an average team

566
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:46,040
Speaker 2: in west Ham and like two top six or seven teams,

567
00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:48,880
Speaker 2: Like if they you know, if they keep losing to

568
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 2: bad teams, then it's a problem. But so far, I'm

569
00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:53,520
Speaker 2: still willing to give this a chance because they have

570
00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 2: not had their full compliment of best players available, So.

571
00:28:56,760 --> 00:29:00,160
Speaker 1: I'll be on the cherry's Anthony's afraid be just passed.

572
00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:02,520
Speaker 3: Through.

573
00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:09,600
Speaker 4: We'll play the way we want you with big Arge,

574
00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:12,800
Speaker 4: Coasta Coblo, will.

575
00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:17,320
Speaker 3: I ride or round? It's big gogeball.

576
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 1: So you can keep your posit Gino con Sa Marino

577
00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:31,560
Speaker 1: and even Christian Grous. You could say everywhere we go.

578
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:42,160
Speaker 4: I'm loving Big Aginstead, I guess I'm a Spurs.

579
00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 1: Fun now then Burnley and Spurs Now, this one at

580
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:47,240
Speaker 1: Turf Moore plus two eighty on the clarits at home

581
00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:51,760
Speaker 1: Spurs odds on minus one eighteen. That draw is plus

582
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:56,400
Speaker 1: three hundred. Uh. I'll just continue to say that Anthony

583
00:29:56,640 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 1: just did not like the hire of Pasta.

584
00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:07,120
Speaker 2: He was season, which I still kind of am.

585
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:11,760
Speaker 1: Kind of I think the numbers in our show notes

586
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:14,080
Speaker 1: I just jotted down I'm getting a little afraid of

587
00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:18,479
Speaker 1: the market. Love for Spurs, but this isn't the spot. Uh,

588
00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:21,400
Speaker 1: Burnley look a little out of sorts your BJ.

589
00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, hey, Vincent company, you can't press like you did

590
00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 3: in the Championship, buddy, Like that's not gonna work here

591
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:29,920
Speaker 3: in the Premier League. If you watch that match against Villa,

592
00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:32,560
Speaker 3: they were pressing with a front four, and so if

593
00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:34,720
Speaker 3: you do that, Yes, they've closed down against teams in

594
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:37,280
Speaker 3: the Championship for a bunch of high turnovers and people

595
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 3: thought they were one of the best teams in the

596
00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:41,280
Speaker 3: Championship has ever seen. Well, now you're in the Premier

597
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:44,560
Speaker 3: League and you've seen it. They've faced an elite build

598
00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 3: up team like City and now they've faced a good

599
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:48,320
Speaker 3: build up team in aston Villa. If you want to

600
00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:51,160
Speaker 3: press with the front four, especially against Villa, who's going

601
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:53,120
Speaker 3: with a you know, a build up style, you usually

602
00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:54,960
Speaker 3: a round a three two five or something like that.

603
00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:57,120
Speaker 3: Once you beat that first line of the press, and

604
00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 3: if you're not effective in stopping it, you're gonna get

605
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:03,760
Speaker 3: horsed in transition. And that's exactly what happened against Aston Villas.

606
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:06,160
Speaker 3: So if Tottham hits even money here, I'm going to

607
00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:08,880
Speaker 3: bet them because if post Cold is gonna which he

608
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:10,800
Speaker 3: will continue to build up in a two three five,

609
00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:14,240
Speaker 3: and Burnley for whatever reason, just continues to press with

610
00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:16,960
Speaker 3: a front four, Todam's gonna absolutely rip them apart. They're

611
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:19,160
Speaker 3: gonna have numeracical advantages all over the pitch once they

612
00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:21,160
Speaker 3: break the first line of the press. So to Ham

613
00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 3: h's even money, I'll do it. I think Burnley is

614
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:25,600
Speaker 3: gonna have They'll be good against bottom half table sides

615
00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 3: who don't build out well are very transitional. I mean

616
00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:31,440
Speaker 3: to be fair to Burnley, it's still a very young team.

617
00:31:31,480 --> 00:31:33,360
Speaker 3: It's still there's still a lot of new faces that

618
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:37,480
Speaker 3: haven't really gelled together yet. But I mean company, you

619
00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:40,000
Speaker 3: can't just press like with reckless abandon but like you

620
00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:42,160
Speaker 3: did in the Championship and just expect everything to work.

621
00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:44,240
Speaker 3: You gotta sit off against good build up teams and

622
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:47,000
Speaker 3: I don't think he's gonna do that. So Tottenham, if

623
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 3: it's plus money or nothing for me.

624
00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:52,800
Speaker 2: Three matches in too, they went to Brentford and played

625
00:31:52,840 --> 00:31:55,400
Speaker 2: them out even they hosted United, had a really good

626
00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:58,520
Speaker 2: second half, but overall was about even then they were

627
00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:01,040
Speaker 2: better than Bournemouth the way. I don't know what we've

628
00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:03,120
Speaker 2: learned about Tottenham besides the fact that they don't have

629
00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:06,000
Speaker 2: a striker because with Charleston once again was largely a

630
00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:09,760
Speaker 2: non factor in the match. And I really don't think

631
00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 2: this is a great role and fit for Son right

632
00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:14,600
Speaker 2: now in his situation. And so where are the shots

633
00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:18,200
Speaker 2: coming from for Tottenham to get margin against these teams.

634
00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:20,000
Speaker 2: And I think you kind of saw that against Bournemouth,

635
00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:23,920
Speaker 2: where Madison and sar are like the two guys who

636
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:26,400
Speaker 2: are doing the attacking right now, and that's it. Like

637
00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:28,640
Speaker 2: the Kuleseevsky gets the goal. It was a great finish,

638
00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:33,280
Speaker 2: but they weren't overwhelming the Bournemouth goal. And so if

639
00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:35,080
Speaker 2: a team is willing to sit off a little bit

640
00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 2: more and dare Tottham to beat them, I think they

641
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:39,360
Speaker 2: might have some problems with that. Being said, that's not

642
00:32:39,400 --> 00:32:41,440
Speaker 2: really born Burnley either. Like you said, you know, so

643
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:44,000
Speaker 2: many of these teams are playing more progressive styles and

644
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:47,720
Speaker 2: more pressing and making this more interesting. And yeah, Burnley

645
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:50,200
Speaker 2: against Villa it was alarmingly bad. I didn't get a

646
00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:52,040
Speaker 2: chance to watch the match, but digging into the advanced

647
00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:53,440
Speaker 2: box score, it did not get better. It got a

648
00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:55,680
Speaker 2: lot worse, Burnley having more of the possession and just

649
00:32:55,680 --> 00:33:00,960
Speaker 2: getting destroyed and conceding inside five minutes. So overall here,

650
00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:04,959
Speaker 2: if I didn't think that, you know, Villa plus one

651
00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:06,800
Speaker 2: fifteen was good enough, I'm definitely not laying it with

652
00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 2: minus one twenty with Tottenham. But again, and this is

653
00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:12,360
Speaker 2: the overarching kind of theme of what I've been thinking

654
00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:15,520
Speaker 2: about for the last week since we've last recorded, how

655
00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 2: bad are these bad teams? Because I just don't know

656
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:21,760
Speaker 2: that we have an adequate sample yet. And Burnley is

657
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:25,040
Speaker 2: a team that maybe has the higher ceiling of the three,

658
00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:27,560
Speaker 2: but also has a pretty low floor here, and we

659
00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 2: mentioned this on the preview pod, like they could just

660
00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:32,520
Speaker 2: bottom out with the style not translating to the prem

661
00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:36,000
Speaker 2: So I'm in waiting and see mode on them too.

662
00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:40,360
Speaker 1: Another ten am start Saturday, Chelsea and Forrest is at

663
00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:43,240
Speaker 1: Stanford Bridge, where Chelsea's a minus two fifty home favorite.

664
00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:49,480
Speaker 1: Forrest man blew that two nil lead against United there

665
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:52,080
Speaker 1: plus seven fifty on the road, the draws plus three

666
00:33:52,200 --> 00:33:58,240
Speaker 1: fifty here bout where it was for the match against United.

667
00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:01,560
Speaker 1: I feel like that makes some sense given the questions

668
00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:04,240
Speaker 1: we have about United and Chelsea just from kind of

669
00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:08,040
Speaker 1: an overall big picture are similar, so it would be

670
00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:09,680
Speaker 1: forced to nothing. I know neither of you have a

671
00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:11,440
Speaker 1: bet here, but Anthony, I'll go to you for which

672
00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:16,200
Speaker 1: is a quick quick show notes on Chelsea and Forced Yeah.

673
00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:19,279
Speaker 2: I mean, whatever we thought of Chelsea before last week,

674
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:21,239
Speaker 2: I don't think we can change much based on that

675
00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:23,840
Speaker 2: game against Luton. Town because it's a home game against

676
00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:26,560
Speaker 2: the worst team in the league. They were fine. They

677
00:34:26,560 --> 00:34:28,680
Speaker 2: went through large periods of the match, like b Jay said,

678
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:32,040
Speaker 2: where you know Lowton was growing into the game. I

679
00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 2: thought it was just like Chelsea wasn't really getting any

680
00:34:34,200 --> 00:34:37,440
Speaker 2: good chances off of what was pretty controlled play. And

681
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:41,680
Speaker 2: so the question now is is force attack real? That's

682
00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:44,120
Speaker 2: the real question in this match for me, because look,

683
00:34:44,640 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 2: they scored twice inside five minutes against Man United, once

684
00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:49,319
Speaker 2: on on a really good counter attack, once off a

685
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:51,920
Speaker 2: set piece. But they have now put up some pretty

686
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:55,960
Speaker 2: encouraging attacking performances in this league so far, and like

687
00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:57,799
Speaker 2: enough to the point where like maybe we have to

688
00:34:57,920 --> 00:35:00,520
Speaker 2: raise our ceiling on what they are because creating one

689
00:35:00,560 --> 00:35:03,800
Speaker 2: point two expected goals against Arsenal is a good showing.

690
00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:06,600
Speaker 2: And you know, we said, well what does that say

691
00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:08,800
Speaker 2: about Arsenal? What does that say about Forest? Because Taiwo

692
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:11,640
Speaker 2: on the pitch last season, toward the end of the

693
00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:14,520
Speaker 2: season is when they finally had the attack tick up

694
00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:16,600
Speaker 2: enough to make up for the fact their defense is

695
00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:19,799
Speaker 2: really really bad. And he scored a bunch of goals

696
00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:20,840
Speaker 2: at the end of the season and he's kind of

697
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:22,480
Speaker 2: picked up right where he left off, he misses the

698
00:35:22,520 --> 00:35:26,400
Speaker 2: first match, comes in and has been really productive for

699
00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:29,880
Speaker 2: them in this early, you know, early stretch. So do

700
00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:31,479
Speaker 2: I think they're going to score you know, five goals

701
00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:34,839
Speaker 2: every three games. No, But I think there's a good

702
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:36,720
Speaker 2: chance that the market is too low on this attack.

703
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:39,920
Speaker 2: So I think this is a good overlook if anything,

704
00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:41,960
Speaker 2: because I you know, I still have questions about how

705
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:46,480
Speaker 2: many shots Chelsea's going to get here going forward. You know,

706
00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:50,440
Speaker 2: Sterling looking rejuvenated is certainly a big plus, but this

707
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:53,560
Speaker 2: Forest attack being real looks real to me. So I

708
00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:55,200
Speaker 2: think that this could be another open, back and forth

709
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:58,080
Speaker 2: kind of foresty game, similar to last week when United

710
00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:00,000
Speaker 2: and Forrest both scored with inside fifteen.

711
00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:04,080
Speaker 3: Yeah. And the thing is, you know Chelsea last season

712
00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:06,839
Speaker 3: they were eighteenth next years per set piece all out,

713
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:10,239
Speaker 3: so Nottingham Forest can definitely be live here off the

714
00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:12,080
Speaker 3: set piece. And Cole Well went off on an injury

715
00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:15,080
Speaker 3: today in the League Cup for Chelsea as well, so

716
00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:18,880
Speaker 3: that's a huge loss to their defense, like massive because

717
00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:19,640
Speaker 3: now it's.

718
00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:21,839
Speaker 1: You know, fun So.

719
00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 3: I mean we'll see, like the defensive options now for

720
00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:28,600
Speaker 3: Chelsea are starting to get thinner and thinner given the

721
00:36:28,600 --> 00:36:30,800
Speaker 3: injuries that they have, so be interesting to see. I

722
00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:34,600
Speaker 3: have not looked what Nottingham Forrest is to score here,

723
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 3: but if it's a decent number, it might be worth

724
00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:37,840
Speaker 3: a play.

725
00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:40,200
Speaker 1: All right. So I think we're all generally leaning towards

726
00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:43,919
Speaker 1: Forrest being at least a little bit live there. We'll see.

727
00:36:43,960 --> 00:36:45,719
Speaker 1: I'll see way the number goes too.

728
00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:49,200
Speaker 3: But to score that's interesting, maybe a little high, but

729
00:36:49,920 --> 00:36:51,399
Speaker 3: I might have to watch that throughout the week.

730
00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:57,120
Speaker 1: City and Fulham. The Citizen's minus seven hundred at home,

731
00:36:57,280 --> 00:37:01,320
Speaker 1: Fulham sixteen to one. On the road, the draw here

732
00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:06,520
Speaker 1: plus seven fifty. The big news for Fulham is the Paulineya.

733
00:37:07,080 --> 00:37:11,319
Speaker 1: It looks like he's well, yeah, they continue to to

734
00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:15,080
Speaker 1: do Fulham things, but it looks like he's on his

735
00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:18,960
Speaker 1: way to Byron Munich, so that could be a disaster

736
00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:23,440
Speaker 1: for them. Their price is basically the same by the

737
00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:27,480
Speaker 1: way to be relegated as it was in the preseason,

738
00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:31,520
Speaker 1: which kind of tells you a couple of things about

739
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:33,600
Speaker 1: this team. Because they just got a point off Arsenal.

740
00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:35,720
Speaker 1: They beat Everton, one of the teams they'd be competing

741
00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:38,600
Speaker 1: with in the relegation scrap on the road, but they

742
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:41,840
Speaker 1: are still let's just say the market isn't convinced. I

743
00:37:41,880 --> 00:37:43,400
Speaker 1: guess from that, what are the odds right now in

744
00:37:43,440 --> 00:37:44,200
Speaker 1: them plus.

745
00:37:43,960 --> 00:37:46,040
Speaker 3: Four fifty plus four to fifty to be relegated.

746
00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:48,719
Speaker 2: The problem is that, like there's so many other bad teams. Yep.

747
00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:55,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, the conversation we had at the preview, I mean,

748
00:37:55,440 --> 00:37:57,360
Speaker 1: I always like to try to go again City in

749
00:37:57,400 --> 00:38:01,400
Speaker 1: these kind of spots the week before an international breaks,

750
00:38:01,440 --> 00:38:05,080
Speaker 1: stuff like that. But this full of defense is just horrible.

751
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:08,800
Speaker 1: It's just not good enough to cope here. So honestly,

752
00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:11,040
Speaker 1: would look at, you know, rapping City minus one and

753
00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:14,000
Speaker 1: a half in a college football parlay or Premier League

754
00:38:14,040 --> 00:38:17,600
Speaker 1: parlay or whatever, rather than play the big price on

755
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:19,560
Speaker 1: Fulham j Yeah.

756
00:38:19,320 --> 00:38:22,120
Speaker 3: You might win parlay with like Utah State under team

757
00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:25,480
Speaker 3: total against Iowa. Yeah, I'm taking City minus two and

758
00:38:25,480 --> 00:38:26,960
Speaker 3: a half. I don't think. I I can't remember the

759
00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:29,360
Speaker 3: last time I've taken City on a spread like this

760
00:38:29,440 --> 00:38:31,200
Speaker 3: to cover it feel like I'm always betting against them,

761
00:38:31,239 --> 00:38:35,759
Speaker 3: But I mean, my goodness, I mean, I mean, what

762
00:38:35,760 --> 00:38:37,120
Speaker 3: what are we gonna do? I mean, I don't know.

763
00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:39,239
Speaker 3: I'm getting so sick of this with Home and it's

764
00:38:39,320 --> 00:38:43,960
Speaker 3: driving me insane through three match weeks now it's Everton,

765
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:48,120
Speaker 3: Brentford and Arsenal. They have conceded nine point five expect goals,

766
00:38:48,160 --> 00:38:51,400
Speaker 3: fifty three shots and one hundred and fifteen touches in

767
00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:55,680
Speaker 3: their penalty area. Lano, he's a plus three point seven

768
00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:58,160
Speaker 3: post shot actually plus minus. He is saving over a

769
00:38:58,200 --> 00:39:02,239
Speaker 3: goal for ninety what he should be. It's literally insane

770
00:39:02,760 --> 00:39:05,799
Speaker 3: how good this team runs. Calvin Bassi gets a red

771
00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 3: card and of course they score off a sepie against

772
00:39:07,600 --> 00:39:09,879
Speaker 3: Arsenal and get the point. He's gonna be out. That's

773
00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:13,200
Speaker 3: just gonna be Tim Reen back there. I don't know

774
00:39:13,719 --> 00:39:16,720
Speaker 3: how they stopped City unless some dark hearts things happen.

775
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:19,280
Speaker 3: I mean, if you go back to last season, Fulham

776
00:39:19,280 --> 00:39:22,000
Speaker 3: conceded twenty seven expected goals against the Big six and

777
00:39:22,040 --> 00:39:25,680
Speaker 3: twelve matches. That's really, really bad. They've shown no competence

778
00:39:26,080 --> 00:39:28,200
Speaker 3: in defending around their penalty And like you said, Michael,

779
00:39:28,200 --> 00:39:31,359
Speaker 3: if Paulina does leave for Bayern and we'll obviously we're

780
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:33,960
Speaker 3: gonna find out after we record this, because the transfer

781
00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:37,000
Speaker 3: window closes on Thursday, I mean, they're gonna have nothing

782
00:39:37,160 --> 00:39:38,879
Speaker 3: in the middle of the pitch. I mean, if they're

783
00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:41,759
Speaker 3: in talks assigned to Obie. That's fine, but he won't

784
00:39:41,760 --> 00:39:44,359
Speaker 3: make up for the ball stopping that Polina does. I

785
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:46,600
Speaker 3: just think City can pick their score here. I understand

786
00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:48,400
Speaker 3: I Roy has hurt, but they have plenty of options

787
00:39:48,400 --> 00:39:51,600
Speaker 3: to break down a little buck. With Alvarez, Vodengrealish and Silva,

788
00:39:51,920 --> 00:39:53,719
Speaker 3: they'll create over two and a half expected goals. If

789
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:56,160
Speaker 3: you go back to last season, both matches ended two

790
00:39:56,160 --> 00:40:00,560
Speaker 3: to one Fulham. They got a City a red card

791
00:40:00,560 --> 00:40:02,160
Speaker 3: in the twenty fifth minute in this match at the

792
00:40:02,160 --> 00:40:06,480
Speaker 3: empty had and from that point then Fulham scored a penalty.

793
00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:08,719
Speaker 3: From that point on, Fulham took three shots and created

794
00:40:08,760 --> 00:40:10,680
Speaker 3: point two x she and they were upp a man.

795
00:40:11,000 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 3: So I don't know. I'm just I'm so sick of Fulham.

796
00:40:15,160 --> 00:40:17,680
Speaker 3: They're gonna bottom out at some point and I just

797
00:40:17,680 --> 00:40:19,359
Speaker 3: don't know how they stop City. I think City can

798
00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:21,400
Speaker 3: really pick their score here. So City minus two and

799
00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:22,799
Speaker 3: a half plus one twenty five for me.

800
00:40:23,120 --> 00:40:26,480
Speaker 1: Great sounds sounds like a great way to head into the.

801
00:40:26,960 --> 00:40:31,640
Speaker 3: Two to one win for City. Ninety sixth minute.

802
00:40:31,440 --> 00:40:34,040
Speaker 1: Brighton and Newcastle. This is probably the match of the

803
00:40:34,080 --> 00:40:37,400
Speaker 1: weekend in terms of stakes, and this is fun. Brighton's

804
00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:40,600
Speaker 1: plus one fifty five at home Newcastle plus one fifty

805
00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:42,399
Speaker 1: on the road. The draws plus two to seventy five.

806
00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 1: Both teams coming off of losses that haven't probably scratching

807
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:50,560
Speaker 1: their head a bit right into west Ham and Newcastle

808
00:40:50,640 --> 00:40:52,080
Speaker 1: blowing it.

809
00:40:52,280 --> 00:40:53,320
Speaker 2: That would be an understatement.

810
00:40:53,440 --> 00:40:54,440
Speaker 1: Oh my god, no.

811
00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:57,600
Speaker 3: Goodness, smash and grab big time.

812
00:40:58,080 --> 00:41:00,640
Speaker 2: Shout out to Avery Zimmerman for hitting Liverpools sixteen to one.

813
00:41:01,520 --> 00:41:04,400
Speaker 2: He only it's our opper editor and tennis guy at

814
00:41:04,440 --> 00:41:06,520
Speaker 2: Action Network. He he only mentioned that to me a

815
00:41:06,560 --> 00:41:09,880
Speaker 2: dozen times to rub it in about the fact that

816
00:41:09,920 --> 00:41:11,920
Speaker 2: you know, we all had Newcastle and look, it's the

817
00:41:11,960 --> 00:41:14,120
Speaker 2: perils of playing the way Newcastle does. They want to

818
00:41:15,400 --> 00:41:17,560
Speaker 2: get out and transition. We talked about how good they

819
00:41:17,560 --> 00:41:20,319
Speaker 2: are with Leeds. Normally it's because teams have to come

820
00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:21,839
Speaker 2: on to them and then they are able to hit

821
00:41:21,920 --> 00:41:24,160
Speaker 2: them on the break. But it was kind of a

822
00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:27,680
Speaker 2: weird stalemate for a while there because yes, Almeron hits

823
00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:32,040
Speaker 2: the post, Allison makes that absurd save. Newcastle in that

824
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:35,480
Speaker 2: match was in their state where they had to have

825
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:37,520
Speaker 2: the ball because Liverpool was saying, well, we're down to

826
00:41:37,600 --> 00:41:39,560
Speaker 2: ten men, so we may be down a goal, but

827
00:41:39,960 --> 00:41:41,600
Speaker 2: we're gonna let you have the ball and then we're

828
00:41:41,640 --> 00:41:43,200
Speaker 2: just gonna ping it up to Darwin and he's gonna

829
00:41:43,200 --> 00:41:46,360
Speaker 2: out athlete spend batman into a goal and then do

830
00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:49,120
Speaker 2: it again and then we're gonna win. So it was.

831
00:41:49,200 --> 00:41:53,120
Speaker 2: It was a fascinating matchup Liverpool. You know, we'll get

832
00:41:53,120 --> 00:41:56,400
Speaker 2: to them in a minute. But from a Newcastle perspective,

833
00:41:57,000 --> 00:42:01,200
Speaker 2: the market has moved pretty solidly towards them since last weekend.

834
00:42:01,480 --> 00:42:03,400
Speaker 2: I think that obviously has more to say about Brighton

835
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:06,719
Speaker 2: than Newcastle. We're learning the limitations of what Brighton is

836
00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:10,200
Speaker 2: because they lost Caceto and they don't they you know,

837
00:42:10,239 --> 00:42:13,360
Speaker 2: they bring in Balleba from Leale, not sure that he'll

838
00:42:13,400 --> 00:42:16,760
Speaker 2: start this weekend. They need more defensive midfield ball winning

839
00:42:17,000 --> 00:42:19,319
Speaker 2: because this is not going to work. They are going

840
00:42:19,320 --> 00:42:21,840
Speaker 2: to score a lot. They are number one in passing,

841
00:42:21,840 --> 00:42:23,719
Speaker 2: the penalty are number one and cross as they're doing

842
00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:26,560
Speaker 2: incredible stuff. From a shots perspective, they just brought it

843
00:42:26,600 --> 00:42:30,799
Speaker 2: onto Fati, who was putting up some ridiculously good goal

844
00:42:30,840 --> 00:42:34,800
Speaker 2: scoring production numbers in limited minutes for Barcelona last season.

845
00:42:35,239 --> 00:42:38,360
Speaker 2: So like, there's a lot to like about this Brighton attack.

846
00:42:38,400 --> 00:42:40,960
Speaker 2: But you know, you can't outscore everybody. That being said,

847
00:42:41,080 --> 00:42:43,480
Speaker 2: Newcastle and Brighton are close enough in my power ratings

848
00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:45,480
Speaker 2: to the point that once I put home field advantage

849
00:42:45,520 --> 00:42:48,160
Speaker 2: in it, I make Brighton about what it was last week,

850
00:42:48,719 --> 00:42:51,240
Speaker 2: which was around plus one thirty five. Now that Brighton's

851
00:42:51,239 --> 00:42:53,120
Speaker 2: been bet down to a pick them, of course I

852
00:42:53,160 --> 00:42:56,120
Speaker 2: downgraded Brighton, but I also downgraded Newcastle off of last week,

853
00:42:56,360 --> 00:42:58,960
Speaker 2: and I think that this game ends up right where

854
00:42:58,960 --> 00:43:00,239
Speaker 2: I had it last week, which is bright is a

855
00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:02,640
Speaker 2: slight home favorite, so at a coin flip game, I'm

856
00:43:02,640 --> 00:43:03,440
Speaker 2: gonna take the goals.

857
00:43:03,680 --> 00:43:07,720
Speaker 1: Yeah. I like Brighton here too. I think that they

858
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:12,359
Speaker 1: they do enough things that Liverpool does well that gave

859
00:43:12,480 --> 00:43:16,399
Speaker 1: Newcastle problems that they could almost Obviously, this game is

860
00:43:16,520 --> 00:43:18,840
Speaker 1: not gonna look like that one, because that one is

861
00:43:18,840 --> 00:43:21,279
Speaker 1: a one in a thousand shot. But they do enough

862
00:43:21,280 --> 00:43:23,879
Speaker 1: of those of these things well, turning the ball over,

863
00:43:23,960 --> 00:43:27,200
Speaker 1: high pressing, putting the ball on the carpet, and just

864
00:43:27,600 --> 00:43:30,040
Speaker 1: being an all action team that I don't think Newcastle

865
00:43:30,080 --> 00:43:34,680
Speaker 1: really coped with it well. And Newcastle honestly that that

866
00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:39,200
Speaker 1: game against Villa you can kind of throw out the script.

867
00:43:39,560 --> 00:43:42,680
Speaker 1: It was two to one with thirteen minutes. Things just

868
00:43:42,760 --> 00:43:43,759
Speaker 1: kind of got out of hand.

869
00:43:44,000 --> 00:43:46,640
Speaker 2: Well, the thing that scares me is actually what happened

870
00:43:46,680 --> 00:43:49,239
Speaker 2: in that match because Villa was trying to have the

871
00:43:49,239 --> 00:43:50,920
Speaker 2: ball and build out a ton and they just ran

872
00:43:50,960 --> 00:43:54,200
Speaker 2: into like Newcastle walls and then Newcastle just destroyed them

873
00:43:54,480 --> 00:43:56,880
Speaker 2: on the break. And like, if that happens kind of

874
00:43:56,920 --> 00:43:59,000
Speaker 2: similar to what just happened on Saturday, you could you

875
00:43:59,040 --> 00:44:02,799
Speaker 2: could easily see a narrative like angle here where it's

876
00:44:02,800 --> 00:44:04,560
Speaker 2: like Brighton has the ball, Brighton has the ball, Brighton

877
00:44:04,600 --> 00:44:06,440
Speaker 2: has the ball, and Newcastle does what they were so

878
00:44:06,440 --> 00:44:08,879
Speaker 2: good at last year, which is eventually win the ball,

879
00:44:09,040 --> 00:44:11,520
Speaker 2: break score, create a ton of big chances. They're just

880
00:44:11,520 --> 00:44:13,399
Speaker 2: like a better version of what west Ham just did.

881
00:44:14,440 --> 00:44:18,279
Speaker 2: That's a strong case. But again, like even with that

882
00:44:18,360 --> 00:44:20,840
Speaker 2: tactical concern, like the number is still the number and

883
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:23,440
Speaker 2: now Newcastle is a road favorite. That's a big difference

884
00:44:23,440 --> 00:44:25,279
Speaker 2: between catching a quarter goal, which is what they were

885
00:44:25,320 --> 00:44:28,120
Speaker 2: a week ago. So as bad as Brighton was in

886
00:44:28,120 --> 00:44:30,719
Speaker 2: that game against west Ham, they still had a ton

887
00:44:30,760 --> 00:44:32,719
Speaker 2: of shots, a ton of chances. Ariola made some bread

888
00:44:32,800 --> 00:44:34,560
Speaker 2: saves like they could have gotten back into that game.

889
00:44:35,239 --> 00:44:37,799
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm gonna roll with the goals. This is

890
00:44:37,880 --> 00:44:40,160
Speaker 2: the third goals bet for me of the season. And look,

891
00:44:40,160 --> 00:44:42,480
Speaker 2: we all agreed last week like Brighton's gotten too high

892
00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:44,439
Speaker 2: in the market, but then the market has now knocked

893
00:44:44,440 --> 00:44:47,399
Speaker 2: them down a solid peg here and I'm gonna bet

894
00:44:47,480 --> 00:44:49,520
Speaker 2: that that's probably just an over reaction to one game.

895
00:44:50,480 --> 00:44:53,239
Speaker 1: And I think it's just that everybody's obsessed with Newcastle.

896
00:44:55,080 --> 00:44:56,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I like them. They didn't create a

897
00:44:56,880 --> 00:44:59,279
Speaker 2: ton in that match against Newcastle Liverpool, but they'd been

898
00:44:59,280 --> 00:45:01,680
Speaker 2: Their best chance came because stand agan Xandarno couldn't stop

899
00:45:01,719 --> 00:45:04,160
Speaker 2: the ball, something that soccer players gonna do.

900
00:45:04,560 --> 00:45:08,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, BJ what what are your thoughts here anything?

901
00:45:09,239 --> 00:45:09,399
Speaker 2: Yeah?

902
00:45:09,440 --> 00:45:10,680
Speaker 3: I mean a lot of what you guys are kind

903
00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:15,480
Speaker 3: of saying is leading me towards and over here. The

904
00:45:15,520 --> 00:45:18,960
Speaker 3: thing with Brighton and what we've been talking about quite

905
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:20,680
Speaker 3: a bit, is there are two different ways to play

906
00:45:20,719 --> 00:45:22,480
Speaker 3: against them, right, Like, you can play the way that

907
00:45:22,520 --> 00:45:26,720
Speaker 3: west Ham did, sit in a just really compact low block,

908
00:45:27,040 --> 00:45:29,279
Speaker 3: but you have to be elite defensively to keep out

909
00:45:29,320 --> 00:45:31,880
Speaker 3: a lot of those chances which west Ham did, or

910
00:45:32,600 --> 00:45:34,920
Speaker 3: you have to press them high and go into and

911
00:45:34,960 --> 00:45:37,799
Speaker 3: take the bait and try to force those high turnovers.

912
00:45:38,040 --> 00:45:41,560
Speaker 3: There are very few teams that will, first off, dare

913
00:45:41,600 --> 00:45:44,200
Speaker 3: to press Brighton and there's only been a few teams

914
00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:46,759
Speaker 3: that's that actually been successful in doing so. One of

915
00:45:46,800 --> 00:45:49,000
Speaker 3: those is Newcastle. If you go back to last season,

916
00:45:50,000 --> 00:45:53,839
Speaker 3: Newcastle absolutely destroyed Brighton at Saint Chances Park. I don't

917
00:45:53,840 --> 00:45:55,319
Speaker 3: have the high turnover dated in front of me, but

918
00:45:55,360 --> 00:45:58,960
Speaker 3: it was a lot because Brighton controlled sixty five percent

919
00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:01,200
Speaker 3: of the ball in that match. They lost for one

920
00:46:01,680 --> 00:46:04,640
Speaker 3: and Newcastle created three point six expected goals now shot

921
00:46:04,640 --> 00:46:06,719
Speaker 3: them twenty two to six. They just absolutely beat up

922
00:46:06,760 --> 00:46:09,520
Speaker 3: Brighton when they were trying to build up. Now that's

923
00:46:09,560 --> 00:46:11,520
Speaker 3: not to say that that's going to happen again, but

924
00:46:11,600 --> 00:46:14,480
Speaker 3: it's a good picture of what can happen to Brighton

925
00:46:14,520 --> 00:46:16,680
Speaker 3: when things go terribly wrong, and it's going to lead

926
00:46:16,680 --> 00:46:18,759
Speaker 3: to a bunch of chaos as well, because if Newcastle's

927
00:46:18,760 --> 00:46:21,160
Speaker 3: going to press them high, well we know this with

928
00:46:21,200 --> 00:46:23,440
Speaker 3: Brighton is that once they beat that first line of

929
00:46:23,480 --> 00:46:25,319
Speaker 3: the press, it is one two touch football and it's

930
00:46:25,320 --> 00:46:27,920
Speaker 3: a transitional opportunity and it's going to be back and

931
00:46:27,960 --> 00:46:30,799
Speaker 3: forth coming to like a basketball match. And you know

932
00:46:30,880 --> 00:46:33,880
Speaker 3: you said it. Brighton has been awesome defensively, most expected

933
00:46:33,920 --> 00:46:36,600
Speaker 3: goals most you know, like every offensive stat that you

934
00:46:36,640 --> 00:46:39,040
Speaker 3: look at, they've been awesome to begin the season, but

935
00:46:39,360 --> 00:46:42,439
Speaker 3: defensively they've been really shape six point six expected goals

936
00:46:42,480 --> 00:46:46,759
Speaker 3: allowed to west Ham Wolves and Lootontown, Like that's really

937
00:46:46,800 --> 00:46:48,840
Speaker 3: concerning stuff. And I think kind of what it boils

938
00:46:48,840 --> 00:46:50,560
Speaker 3: down to is not only you're playing very aggressive and

939
00:46:50,560 --> 00:46:51,879
Speaker 3: they need more ball in the middle of the pitch,

940
00:46:51,880 --> 00:46:55,360
Speaker 3: which is true, but they don't have Levi Cole anymore,

941
00:46:55,360 --> 00:46:58,080
Speaker 3: and they don't really have a capable defending center back

942
00:46:58,320 --> 00:47:01,120
Speaker 3: to go along with Lewis dunt ter me he got

943
00:47:01,160 --> 00:47:03,239
Speaker 3: cooked a couple times and that match against west Ham

944
00:47:03,239 --> 00:47:06,200
Speaker 3: and really cost them a couple of goals. So then

945
00:47:06,239 --> 00:47:09,640
Speaker 3: you have Brighton looking that shaky defensively going against the

946
00:47:09,640 --> 00:47:12,040
Speaker 3: Newcastle team where you watch what they've done to a

947
00:47:12,080 --> 00:47:13,680
Speaker 3: team like aston Villa that wants to build out of

948
00:47:13,719 --> 00:47:16,160
Speaker 3: the back, like that is really really concerning. But on

949
00:47:16,200 --> 00:47:19,040
Speaker 3: the flip side, for Newcastle, Saven Boltman's gonna miss this

950
00:47:19,080 --> 00:47:21,360
Speaker 3: match And what do we say all last season is

951
00:47:21,360 --> 00:47:23,080
Speaker 3: that one of the reasons why Newcastle was so good

952
00:47:23,120 --> 00:47:25,600
Speaker 3: defensively is because nobody got hurt nobody but the same

953
00:47:25,680 --> 00:47:29,040
Speaker 3: back for for basically the entire season. Well, now Bowman's hurt,

954
00:47:29,080 --> 00:47:31,320
Speaker 3: which means my guess is they're gonna slot Dan Byrne

955
00:47:31,360 --> 00:47:33,719
Speaker 3: back in center back and Target's gonna come out and

956
00:47:33,719 --> 00:47:37,280
Speaker 3: play left back. Well, that's a big downgrade for Newcastle defensively.

957
00:47:37,320 --> 00:47:40,239
Speaker 3: I mean, Boben played thirty four point seven nineties at

958
00:47:40,280 --> 00:47:42,600
Speaker 3: center back last season. That was the most of any

959
00:47:42,760 --> 00:47:45,520
Speaker 3: Newcastle player played more than anybody else. So that's a

960
00:47:45,520 --> 00:47:47,799
Speaker 3: big loss. Like, now you're gonna have to play without him.

961
00:47:47,840 --> 00:47:49,960
Speaker 3: So I think we're gonna see absolute chaos in this

962
00:47:50,040 --> 00:47:52,759
Speaker 3: match once that first goal goes in. Brighton scores and

963
00:47:52,800 --> 00:47:55,080
Speaker 3: Newcastle lo haves to get more aggressive with they're pressing,

964
00:47:55,120 --> 00:47:58,600
Speaker 3: and Deserve can even bait them in even more. Brighton's

965
00:47:58,600 --> 00:48:00,400
Speaker 3: gonna create a ton of chances on the flips if

966
00:48:00,440 --> 00:48:02,839
Speaker 3: Newcastle scores first and they can just kind of sit

967
00:48:02,880 --> 00:48:05,040
Speaker 3: back and press and Brighton has to be incredibly aggressive, Like,

968
00:48:05,040 --> 00:48:07,560
Speaker 3: it's just gonna be so much chaos. So over three

969
00:48:07,600 --> 00:48:09,239
Speaker 3: and a half at plus one thirty four is the

970
00:48:09,239 --> 00:48:11,160
Speaker 3: best price that you have rightt there, I would chase

971
00:48:11,200 --> 00:48:12,960
Speaker 3: in over three and a half. I wouldn't play a

972
00:48:13,040 --> 00:48:15,960
Speaker 3: juice over three because I think we have the potential

973
00:48:15,960 --> 00:48:18,520
Speaker 3: for maybe five or six goals in this match.

974
00:48:19,360 --> 00:48:21,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, there was a little bit of like on the

975
00:48:21,360 --> 00:48:23,960
Speaker 2: beachiness to that game, if I remember right, Like Brighton

976
00:48:24,040 --> 00:48:25,680
Speaker 2: was out of the race at that point and they

977
00:48:25,719 --> 00:48:28,160
Speaker 2: went on the road. It was like the April Ish

978
00:48:28,320 --> 00:48:31,680
Speaker 2: and they kind of did get cooked. It was three

979
00:48:31,719 --> 00:48:33,279
Speaker 2: point six to point five on XTG. But a lot

980
00:48:33,280 --> 00:48:36,239
Speaker 2: of that, like you said, was Brighton getting turned over

981
00:48:36,280 --> 00:48:37,879
Speaker 2: high and that is a possibility. But I do think

982
00:48:37,880 --> 00:48:40,280
Speaker 2: it does change a little bit on Brighton's home soil.

983
00:48:41,520 --> 00:48:43,960
Speaker 2: But yeah, yeah, I just look, I see how this

984
00:48:44,000 --> 00:48:46,719
Speaker 2: goes wrong. Not my favorite bet of the year, but

985
00:48:46,800 --> 00:48:49,040
Speaker 2: I love the number. So I like Brighton.

986
00:48:50,560 --> 00:48:54,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, with you, I just like Brighton in the chaos

987
00:48:54,040 --> 00:48:55,719
Speaker 1: more than I would like newcast On it. It does

988
00:48:55,920 --> 00:49:00,520
Speaker 1: feel like a chaotic match. Palace in Wolves now Palace

989
00:49:00,640 --> 00:49:05,440
Speaker 1: payouts Yeah, minus one ten at home Wolves traveling as

990
00:49:05,480 --> 00:49:09,000
Speaker 1: a plus three thirty three underdog and the draw is

991
00:49:09,000 --> 00:49:13,239
Speaker 1: plus two thirty BJ's passing. I mean, I just I'm

992
00:49:13,280 --> 00:49:16,920
Speaker 1: just tipping my cap to Roy Hodgson and Anthony. You

993
00:49:16,920 --> 00:49:17,400
Speaker 1: have a bet.

994
00:49:17,719 --> 00:49:19,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I do like Crystal Palace at home here minus

995
00:49:19,680 --> 00:49:23,080
Speaker 2: one ten. I have bumped Palace. You know, the thing

996
00:49:23,120 --> 00:49:25,040
Speaker 2: we said about them in the preseason like this could

997
00:49:25,120 --> 00:49:28,839
Speaker 2: go wrong if they're not keeping Michael Elise, and I

998
00:49:28,840 --> 00:49:30,919
Speaker 2: think that that's going to be a big part of

999
00:49:31,520 --> 00:49:34,359
Speaker 2: what kind of works for this Palace team still being

1000
00:49:34,440 --> 00:49:37,520
Speaker 2: solid defensively and the attack not quite falling off of

1001
00:49:37,520 --> 00:49:40,239
Speaker 2: a cliff. And you know, I'm buying into what the

1002
00:49:40,280 --> 00:49:42,040
Speaker 2: market is. There are smarter people out there than me

1003
00:49:42,080 --> 00:49:44,120
Speaker 2: that really like this Palace team and continue to bet

1004
00:49:44,160 --> 00:49:46,279
Speaker 2: them as we get closer and closer to game time.

1005
00:49:46,280 --> 00:49:48,000
Speaker 2: And I actually find that to be a decent leading

1006
00:49:48,040 --> 00:49:50,560
Speaker 2: indicator on you know, how a team may perform. And

1007
00:49:50,600 --> 00:49:53,279
Speaker 2: you know, the market's not always right, but through you know,

1008
00:49:53,360 --> 00:49:58,160
Speaker 2: three matches against you know, solid opposition, they were very

1009
00:49:58,160 --> 00:50:01,960
Speaker 2: competitive against Arsenal in a match that was even on

1010
00:50:02,000 --> 00:50:04,400
Speaker 2: non penalty. Actually they were outplayed in it, but not overwhelmed.

1011
00:50:05,120 --> 00:50:07,960
Speaker 2: They had an average showing at Brentford where they got

1012
00:50:08,000 --> 00:50:10,120
Speaker 2: a point. The market moved toward them again, and I

1013
00:50:10,120 --> 00:50:11,960
Speaker 2: think the market's a little bit short here. You know,

1014
00:50:12,000 --> 00:50:14,520
Speaker 2: I understand why there's some hesitation because Palace is not

1015
00:50:14,640 --> 00:50:17,799
Speaker 2: a swashbuckling attack that's going to run away from these

1016
00:50:17,800 --> 00:50:21,440
Speaker 2: teams and thus that makes them a dangerous favorite. But look,

1017
00:50:21,800 --> 00:50:23,920
Speaker 2: you know, Wolves have played three games and I know

1018
00:50:23,960 --> 00:50:26,600
Speaker 2: everybody went gung ho about how well they played against

1019
00:50:26,640 --> 00:50:29,080
Speaker 2: Man United, but they're just not going to get that

1020
00:50:29,160 --> 00:50:32,120
Speaker 2: money transitional opportunities against this Palace team. Palace much more

1021
00:50:32,120 --> 00:50:35,960
Speaker 2: solid defensively and I think actually better offensively as well,

1022
00:50:36,040 --> 00:50:38,000
Speaker 2: so better all around and at home. I'm willing to

1023
00:50:38,040 --> 00:50:39,560
Speaker 2: lay the minus one ten. I think this should be

1024
00:50:39,600 --> 00:50:42,400
Speaker 2: closer to minus one thirty and I will like the

1025
00:50:42,440 --> 00:50:44,280
Speaker 2: Eagles at home.

1026
00:50:44,440 --> 00:50:46,319
Speaker 1: All right. We'll close out the Premier League with a

1027
00:50:47,120 --> 00:50:50,960
Speaker 1: U nai Emory versus Jurgen Klopp showdown at Anfield. Liverpool's

1028
00:50:50,960 --> 00:50:53,759
Speaker 1: minus won fifty Villa plus three thirty three and the

1029
00:50:53,840 --> 00:50:57,880
Speaker 1: job plus three fifty find Filla out there like plus

1030
00:50:57,920 --> 00:51:01,000
Speaker 1: three sixty. I think it's a good night on the villains.

1031
00:51:01,719 --> 00:51:05,080
Speaker 1: I know that Liverpool's got seven points from nine. What

1032
00:51:05,160 --> 00:51:07,800
Speaker 1: have they put together? Though in any of the three matches.

1033
00:51:07,800 --> 00:51:11,640
Speaker 1: They put together great twenty first minutes against Chelsea, then

1034
00:51:11,800 --> 00:51:13,520
Speaker 1: you could argue that Chelsea was the better team for

1035
00:51:13,560 --> 00:51:17,799
Speaker 1: the next sixty or seventy of that match. They got

1036
00:51:18,680 --> 00:51:22,160
Speaker 1: completely pants by Bourne. Myth in the first ten or

1037
00:51:22,160 --> 00:51:24,600
Speaker 1: fifteen minutes and yes they ended up taking control of

1038
00:51:24,600 --> 00:51:27,400
Speaker 1: that game, but that was Bournemuth at home. And then

1039
00:51:28,160 --> 00:51:31,880
Speaker 1: you know, they were not very good against Newcastle in

1040
00:51:31,880 --> 00:51:33,600
Speaker 1: the first thirty minutes. I know, Virgil gets the red

1041
00:51:33,640 --> 00:51:37,080
Speaker 1: card and they end up winning that match with the

1042
00:51:37,080 --> 00:51:40,799
Speaker 1: credit to them digging in getting some great goaltending and

1043
00:51:41,480 --> 00:51:47,799
Speaker 1: we're goalkeeping and Darwin Juniaz stealing the show that they

1044
00:51:47,840 --> 00:51:51,719
Speaker 1: just haven't been as impressive as a team that has

1045
00:51:51,800 --> 00:51:57,080
Speaker 1: taken seven from nine against that schedule should and it's

1046
00:51:57,080 --> 00:52:00,719
Speaker 1: all because of the defense. It's not just like and

1047
00:52:00,760 --> 00:52:04,920
Speaker 1: it's not just the defense, the defensive flaws that are

1048
00:52:04,960 --> 00:52:07,480
Speaker 1: showing up right, like that kind of poor defense that

1049
00:52:07,600 --> 00:52:09,680
Speaker 1: puts so much more pressure on everybody else around the

1050
00:52:09,719 --> 00:52:13,719
Speaker 1: pitch and everybody else is getting stretched. So this is

1051
00:52:13,719 --> 00:52:17,719
Speaker 1: a team that looks still to me very flawed and

1052
00:52:17,760 --> 00:52:19,920
Speaker 1: a team I want to bet against when they're a favorite,

1053
00:52:19,920 --> 00:52:21,160
Speaker 1: and a team that I want to bet against with

1054
00:52:21,280 --> 00:52:22,960
Speaker 1: their favorite against a solid team like Aston Villa, I

1055
00:52:23,000 --> 00:52:24,520
Speaker 1: don't care if it's at anfield or on the moon

1056
00:52:24,600 --> 00:52:27,840
Speaker 1: like this is. This is a good number on a

1057
00:52:27,880 --> 00:52:30,400
Speaker 1: Villa team that's creating plenty of scoring chances too. So

1058
00:52:31,040 --> 00:52:32,600
Speaker 1: this does not look like a walk in the park

1059
00:52:32,800 --> 00:52:34,439
Speaker 1: at all. And I know you two like the over

1060
00:52:35,080 --> 00:52:38,080
Speaker 1: that kind of makes me think board that I like

1061
00:52:38,360 --> 00:52:41,160
Speaker 1: Villa more like one nil is not going to win

1062
00:52:41,160 --> 00:52:43,040
Speaker 1: this game. Two one that can. This is gonna be

1063
00:52:43,040 --> 00:52:45,640
Speaker 1: like three to two. And who the hell knows Brighten

1064
00:52:45,719 --> 00:52:48,040
Speaker 1: and Newcastle we're talking about chas this one too, I

1065
00:52:48,080 --> 00:52:51,320
Speaker 1: think because Liverpool looks out of sorts trying to defend.

1066
00:52:52,480 --> 00:52:54,240
Speaker 1: So taking the villains here.

1067
00:52:54,680 --> 00:52:59,440
Speaker 2: The injuries there are also in suspensions now, I mean

1068
00:52:59,440 --> 00:53:03,880
Speaker 2: no Vanda and no kant here, yeah Joe Gomes. I

1069
00:53:03,920 --> 00:53:08,040
Speaker 2: mean they don't have a defensive midfield. This is gonna

1070
00:53:08,080 --> 00:53:10,200
Speaker 2: be some Kamakazi shit. And we've seen Klopp do this

1071
00:53:10,320 --> 00:53:14,080
Speaker 2: before and he knows that they're not going to win

1072
00:53:14,120 --> 00:53:18,120
Speaker 2: this match by defending effectively, so he's just going to

1073
00:53:18,200 --> 00:53:20,560
Speaker 2: dial up the meter and say, hey, look, I have

1074
00:53:20,640 --> 00:53:23,919
Speaker 2: much better attacking players than Unayamri does. And he does.

1075
00:53:24,080 --> 00:53:26,400
Speaker 2: And I'm hoping Darwin can get a start here because

1076
00:53:26,920 --> 00:53:29,600
Speaker 2: it was super encouraged, but he needs to get in

1077
00:53:29,640 --> 00:53:32,280
Speaker 2: the team more, especially in this matchup. Oh my goodness,

1078
00:53:32,320 --> 00:53:35,400
Speaker 2: I remember he got caught off side like three times

1079
00:53:35,400 --> 00:53:39,640
Speaker 2: in the first half. But Darwin in this matchup against

1080
00:53:39,640 --> 00:53:45,120
Speaker 2: that Villa high line could just wreck Villa defensively, and

1081
00:53:45,120 --> 00:53:46,719
Speaker 2: I think that's the key here. I think it's that

1082
00:53:47,040 --> 00:53:48,760
Speaker 2: Liverpool is going to be able to get in behind

1083
00:53:48,800 --> 00:53:50,960
Speaker 2: a ton because of all the passing quality that still

1084
00:53:51,000 --> 00:53:54,520
Speaker 2: exists within this midfield Sola, Bush, Sly and Trent, especially

1085
00:53:55,080 --> 00:53:57,839
Speaker 2: if you're calling Trent of midfielder. Now like those two

1086
00:53:57,880 --> 00:54:03,360
Speaker 2: guys should be able to fine Nunez, Diaz and Sala

1087
00:54:03,440 --> 00:54:05,320
Speaker 2: in behind over and over again. Remember it was Emory's

1088
00:54:05,320 --> 00:54:08,040
Speaker 2: one of his first matches when they came in and

1089
00:54:08,080 --> 00:54:10,920
Speaker 2: he decided he was going to install this system and

1090
00:54:10,960 --> 00:54:13,319
Speaker 2: they got cooked. And then the second matchup they did

1091
00:54:13,400 --> 00:54:15,080
Speaker 2: much better coping with it. But again it was a

1092
00:54:15,080 --> 00:54:17,680
Speaker 2: lot of like just offside scored, but we're offside by

1093
00:54:17,680 --> 00:54:20,799
Speaker 2: a Toenail Gakpo had a goal call back. Liverpool ended

1094
00:54:20,880 --> 00:54:22,640
Speaker 2: up drawing one one for me know, scored late, but

1095
00:54:22,719 --> 00:54:27,120
Speaker 2: again it was like this Villa system is teetering defensively.

1096
00:54:28,280 --> 00:54:30,200
Speaker 2: So yeah, I do like the over here. I think

1097
00:54:30,200 --> 00:54:33,040
Speaker 2: this is gonna be a fun one. You know, the

1098
00:54:33,120 --> 00:54:36,120
Speaker 2: number isn't the best. I do think you know, the

1099
00:54:36,200 --> 00:54:39,799
Speaker 2: numbers kind of right, but it's hard to project this

1100
00:54:39,880 --> 00:54:42,120
Speaker 2: game because we don't know what Klopp will do tactically,

1101
00:54:42,160 --> 00:54:43,960
Speaker 2: and I think he may just dial this up and

1102
00:54:44,000 --> 00:54:48,240
Speaker 2: say screw it, we're going for it peak Liverpool vibes,

1103
00:54:48,320 --> 00:54:49,920
Speaker 2: and it's part of what has made the league really

1104
00:54:49,960 --> 00:54:51,520
Speaker 2: fun in the prem right now. It's just like all

1105
00:54:51,520 --> 00:54:54,279
Speaker 2: of these teams have flaws and they're just leaning into them,

1106
00:54:54,400 --> 00:54:58,359
Speaker 2: like Brighton, Liverpool, Newcastle like just living in transition, never

1107
00:54:58,400 --> 00:55:01,840
Speaker 2: having never wanting the ball, Taughten, theam you know, with

1108
00:55:01,840 --> 00:55:03,799
Speaker 2: their new approach, like it's it's it's it's really fun.

1109
00:55:04,400 --> 00:55:07,600
Speaker 1: It's it's not fun fun until Newcastle blows a league.

1110
00:55:07,880 --> 00:55:12,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's four biggest plays, three of which were overs

1111
00:55:12,040 --> 00:55:14,439
Speaker 2: that move like seventy cents, all stayed under because nobody

1112
00:55:14,480 --> 00:55:16,759
Speaker 2: can finish. But yeah, other than that, it's been fun.

1113
00:55:16,920 --> 00:55:19,680
Speaker 3: What do you got, Beja, I mean, yeah, I think

1114
00:55:19,760 --> 00:55:22,520
Speaker 3: it goes along with Anthony is saying, I don't think

1115
00:55:22,520 --> 00:55:24,680
Speaker 3: that Klop has another option but to dial it up,

1116
00:55:24,719 --> 00:55:28,000
Speaker 3: because honestly, what you should do is you should take

1117
00:55:28,000 --> 00:55:30,600
Speaker 3: the blueprint of what Newcastle did to Aston Villa and

1118
00:55:30,640 --> 00:55:32,600
Speaker 3: just go boss the wall, press them high and try

1119
00:55:32,600 --> 00:55:35,120
Speaker 3: to beat them in transition. The last thing you want

1120
00:55:35,120 --> 00:55:39,480
Speaker 3: to do against Uni Amory team is to build up pragmatically,

1121
00:55:39,600 --> 00:55:41,359
Speaker 3: let him sink back in a four to four to two,

1122
00:55:41,400 --> 00:55:44,640
Speaker 3: condense those space in between the lines and just sitting

1123
00:55:44,680 --> 00:55:46,879
Speaker 3: a low block. That's not how That's not how teams

1124
00:55:46,880 --> 00:55:49,080
Speaker 3: have beaten ver Real. It's not how you beat aston Villa.

1125
00:55:49,160 --> 00:55:51,560
Speaker 3: You beat them by turning them over high and getting

1126
00:55:51,560 --> 00:55:54,880
Speaker 3: at them in transition. And something interesting I thought with

1127
00:55:54,920 --> 00:55:56,840
Speaker 3: aston Villa, I thought, Okay, Tyrone Mings is going to

1128
00:55:56,840 --> 00:55:58,880
Speaker 3: be out for an extended period of time. They'll probably

1129
00:55:58,880 --> 00:56:01,040
Speaker 3: go back to four four two or some thing of

1130
00:56:01,040 --> 00:56:04,319
Speaker 3: that nature. But Unaamori is sticking with the back three,

1131
00:56:04,360 --> 00:56:07,640
Speaker 3: and he's slotting in Diego Carlos, who missed the entire

1132
00:56:07,680 --> 00:56:10,360
Speaker 3: season with an achilles injury last year, and now he's

1133
00:56:10,480 --> 00:56:12,680
Speaker 3: in and going to be playing the Tyrone Mings role

1134
00:56:12,840 --> 00:56:16,960
Speaker 3: against this Liverpool offense. I think that's an incredibly dangerous

1135
00:56:16,960 --> 00:56:19,160
Speaker 3: game to play, especially now you have three center backs

1136
00:56:19,520 --> 00:56:23,280
Speaker 3: in pawtor As, Diego Carlos and Alconsa who haven't played

1137
00:56:23,520 --> 00:56:25,840
Speaker 3: a lot together. So if you're going to play that

1138
00:56:25,920 --> 00:56:29,240
Speaker 3: high line, like Anthony said, you're going to get absolutely

1139
00:56:29,320 --> 00:56:32,279
Speaker 3: ripped apart. And then for Liverpool. I yeah, I don't

1140
00:56:32,320 --> 00:56:35,800
Speaker 3: know what they do defensively without Van Dykin, without Konnate.

1141
00:56:37,000 --> 00:56:40,680
Speaker 3: They can't really invert Trent Alexander Arnold to the middle

1142
00:56:40,719 --> 00:56:43,440
Speaker 3: of the pitch because they don't have a defensive midfielder

1143
00:56:43,560 --> 00:56:46,440
Speaker 3: or a ball stopper, so he's continually having to stay

1144
00:56:46,480 --> 00:56:49,560
Speaker 3: wide and defend one B one situations, which is not great.

1145
00:56:49,680 --> 00:56:52,799
Speaker 3: So this has the potential of really just back and

1146
00:56:52,840 --> 00:56:57,520
Speaker 3: forth type match type match. Aspen Villa though second most

1147
00:56:57,560 --> 00:57:00,279
Speaker 3: expected goals of anybody in the Premier leagues so far

1148
00:57:00,320 --> 00:57:04,240
Speaker 3: through three matches. So I uh, I agree with Anthony.

1149
00:57:04,280 --> 00:57:06,200
Speaker 3: I love over three and a half at plus one fifteen,

1150
00:57:06,200 --> 00:57:09,360
Speaker 3: I projected three point five to five, so anything plus

1151
00:57:09,360 --> 00:57:10,920
Speaker 3: one ten or betters is good for me.

1152
00:57:11,000 --> 00:57:17,720
Speaker 1: Here, all right, Bundesliga time, Anthony. It's it's your favorite

1153
00:57:17,720 --> 00:57:21,000
Speaker 1: week or one of your two favorite weeks, sometimes three

1154
00:57:21,000 --> 00:57:21,840
Speaker 1: favorite weeks.

1155
00:57:22,360 --> 00:57:23,240
Speaker 2: One time we had four.

1156
00:57:23,760 --> 00:57:28,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was crazy of the season. So I'll be

1157
00:57:28,440 --> 00:57:31,560
Speaker 1: riding with you. Maybe we'll get b J on board

1158
00:57:31,560 --> 00:57:36,160
Speaker 1: two with clod Boch against Harry Kane can't be stopped.

1159
00:57:36,720 --> 00:57:39,840
Speaker 2: This is like, uh, like somehow my Super Bowl became

1160
00:57:39,880 --> 00:57:45,000
Speaker 2: even crazier because the uh, you through my second favorite

1161
00:57:45,000 --> 00:57:47,840
Speaker 2: soccer player of all time into the into the next

1162
00:57:48,080 --> 00:57:50,720
Speaker 2: number one, Gareth Oh.

1163
00:57:51,800 --> 00:57:54,120
Speaker 1: I see that way. When we were previewing the Euros

1164
00:57:54,240 --> 00:57:56,760
Speaker 1: with the roll, you know, the Gareth Bell was one

1165
00:57:57,040 --> 00:57:57,640
Speaker 1: nothing nice.

1166
00:57:57,480 --> 00:58:00,000
Speaker 2: To say about the man that I had nothing nice

1167
00:58:00,040 --> 00:58:02,440
Speaker 2: say about the team the man I will never say

1168
00:58:02,480 --> 00:58:03,800
Speaker 2: a bad word. And there's a lot of foot of

1169
00:58:03,880 --> 00:58:05,880
Speaker 2: the Union fans that are very unhappy with me for

1170
00:58:06,000 --> 00:58:09,040
Speaker 2: my support of Gareth Bale. But and if you're listening,

1171
00:58:09,160 --> 00:58:13,240
Speaker 2: I'm sorry that he scored on you. But let's discuss

1172
00:58:13,280 --> 00:58:17,160
Speaker 2: this matchup because it makes no sense. That's the beauty

1173
00:58:17,160 --> 00:58:19,760
Speaker 2: of it. It makes no sense. There were times when

1174
00:58:19,800 --> 00:58:23,480
Speaker 2: Glodblach was like a legitimately good team, and there were

1175
00:58:23,560 --> 00:58:26,320
Speaker 2: years under Marco Rosa where like they legitimately outplayed Byron

1176
00:58:26,320 --> 00:58:28,920
Speaker 2: at times like the fame Joe Scalley game to kick

1177
00:58:28,960 --> 00:58:32,280
Speaker 2: off the twenty twenty one season, or you know the

1178
00:58:32,320 --> 00:58:36,480
Speaker 2: beginning of the following year in January when they were

1179
00:58:36,480 --> 00:58:38,160
Speaker 2: down to nil to Byron inside the first half and

1180
00:58:38,160 --> 00:58:41,560
Speaker 2: then Jonas Hoffman turned into the greatest player of all

1181
00:58:41,560 --> 00:58:43,280
Speaker 2: time for thirty minutes and they came back to win

1182
00:58:43,320 --> 00:58:45,960
Speaker 2: three two. Like there have been so many weird and

1183
00:58:46,040 --> 00:58:51,080
Speaker 2: legitimately deserved wins for Gladbach wor draws against Byron. Then

1184
00:58:51,120 --> 00:58:54,400
Speaker 2: there have been the other results where you're just like,

1185
00:58:54,520 --> 00:58:57,160
Speaker 2: how exactly is this game competitive? And we go back

1186
00:58:57,200 --> 00:59:00,840
Speaker 2: to last season when Glodbak was twelve to one against Byron.

1187
00:59:01,240 --> 00:59:03,680
Speaker 2: They got out shot ten to one in the first half,

1188
00:59:03,720 --> 00:59:07,000
Speaker 2: but Marcus ram got a breakaway on a Nuba mcconam mistake.

1189
00:59:07,280 --> 00:59:09,439
Speaker 2: We went aut one nil at half. Jon Sommer broke

1190
00:59:09,520 --> 00:59:13,160
Speaker 2: the Bundesliga record for saves in a match and Byron

1191
00:59:13,200 --> 00:59:15,040
Speaker 2: scored in the eighty seventh minute to tie it. It

1192
00:59:15,080 --> 00:59:17,000
Speaker 2: was one to one, but again we were catching two

1193
00:59:17,040 --> 00:59:18,840
Speaker 2: and a half goals, so the game was never in doubt.

1194
00:59:18,840 --> 00:59:20,760
Speaker 2: From a spread perspective, we almost got the money line

1195
00:59:20,760 --> 00:59:24,320
Speaker 2: home and then sure enough the last meeting by glad

1196
00:59:24,400 --> 00:59:27,480
Speaker 2: back at home six to one, red card to Byron

1197
00:59:27,520 --> 00:59:29,120
Speaker 2: ten minutes and we get to play up a man

1198
00:59:29,160 --> 00:59:32,240
Speaker 2: for the entire match win three to two. So we

1199
00:59:32,320 --> 00:59:36,000
Speaker 2: go back and forth, but essentially the history is since

1200
00:59:36,360 --> 00:59:41,120
Speaker 2: the COVID has ended, since the COVID pauses ended, the

1201
00:59:41,200 --> 00:59:43,880
Speaker 2: results are as follows. Gold Bock won three to two,

1202
00:59:44,600 --> 00:59:46,840
Speaker 2: Byron won six nil. We don't talk about that match.

1203
00:59:47,280 --> 00:59:50,560
Speaker 2: Byron lost five nil in a cup match to Gladbach.

1204
00:59:51,000 --> 00:59:56,000
Speaker 2: Byron then lost two to one in a thriller in

1205
00:59:56,040 --> 00:59:58,720
Speaker 2: the following season, and then the last year it was

1206
00:59:58,760 --> 01:00:00,840
Speaker 2: one to one and three to two to Glodbox. So

1207
01:00:01,400 --> 01:00:04,640
Speaker 2: this rivalry, outside of that one match, Glodbok has gotten

1208
01:00:04,680 --> 01:00:06,880
Speaker 2: a point or three in every single one of them.

1209
01:00:06,960 --> 01:00:10,640
Speaker 2: And look, I have severely downgraded Glodboch. If you listen

1210
01:00:10,680 --> 01:00:13,520
Speaker 2: to the show that we did with bj before the season,

1211
01:00:13,560 --> 01:00:16,640
Speaker 2: you know I'm holding a relegation ticket, which through two

1212
01:00:16,680 --> 01:00:21,160
Speaker 2: matches we are really bad and expect a gold differential.

1213
01:00:21,440 --> 01:00:24,560
Speaker 2: We are in the bottom three. But something about this

1214
01:00:24,680 --> 01:00:28,400
Speaker 2: rivalry in this matchup and now you know Byron through

1215
01:00:28,440 --> 01:00:33,320
Speaker 2: three matches overall, still has the exact same flaws we've

1216
01:00:33,360 --> 01:00:35,080
Speaker 2: seen from years past. I think it's why they're in

1217
01:00:35,120 --> 01:00:37,440
Speaker 2: for a defensive Midfilder and Paulina because they need more

1218
01:00:37,440 --> 01:00:40,600
Speaker 2: ball winning and it makes them vulnerable in transition and

1219
01:00:40,920 --> 01:00:44,320
Speaker 2: this Glodboc team hasn't gotten the chance to do a

1220
01:00:44,360 --> 01:00:46,080
Speaker 2: ton of it yet in terms of playing in transition.

1221
01:00:46,120 --> 01:00:48,320
Speaker 2: But I actually think that they if they're good at

1222
01:00:48,360 --> 01:00:51,040
Speaker 2: anything from a squad profile perspective this year, it's going

1223
01:00:51,080 --> 01:00:53,919
Speaker 2: to be that. So despite all the issues, I will

1224
01:00:53,920 --> 01:00:56,280
Speaker 2: be betting them plus one and a half at home

1225
01:00:56,840 --> 01:00:58,840
Speaker 2: in this matchup, and I will be sprinkling the money

1226
01:00:58,840 --> 01:01:02,160
Speaker 2: line because we are you know, we've had too much

1227
01:01:02,160 --> 01:01:03,560
Speaker 2: fun with it to not do it, and I've already

1228
01:01:03,560 --> 01:01:07,040
Speaker 2: gotten multiple texts this week, So as a podcast, we

1229
01:01:07,080 --> 01:01:09,360
Speaker 2: will be betting the Foals at home.

1230
01:01:09,480 --> 01:01:11,440
Speaker 1: Ye six to one on the money line. I'll be

1231
01:01:11,480 --> 01:01:15,400
Speaker 1: in on it. BJ Any thoughts here in the Bundesliga.

1232
01:01:14,840 --> 01:01:19,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like Wolfsburg pick on the road at Hoffenheim.

1233
01:01:19,280 --> 01:01:22,560
Speaker 3: Hoffenheim has been an absolute mess defensively to begin the

1234
01:01:22,600 --> 01:01:25,000
Speaker 3: season five point one expect goals allowed, that's the most

1235
01:01:25,000 --> 01:01:26,920
Speaker 3: of anybody in the BUNUS League, and they played Freiberg

1236
01:01:26,960 --> 01:01:30,400
Speaker 3: and hide Theheim not exactly Murderer's row. Essentially, what's happened

1237
01:01:30,480 --> 01:01:34,080
Speaker 3: is Pellegrino Mantzzarro came in in February of last season

1238
01:01:34,120 --> 01:01:38,160
Speaker 3: and switched them to be a more aggressive pressing team

1239
01:01:38,200 --> 01:01:41,520
Speaker 3: and it really hasn't worked. They've since he's taken over.

1240
01:01:41,560 --> 01:01:45,080
Speaker 3: They're allowing one point five x g P ninety. Offensively,

1241
01:01:45,120 --> 01:01:47,840
Speaker 3: they haven't really created much post World Cup break, they

1242
01:01:47,880 --> 01:01:51,880
Speaker 3: only created eighteen point one expected goals in fifteen matches. Now,

1243
01:01:51,920 --> 01:01:54,160
Speaker 3: going into this season, they lost their best attacking option

1244
01:01:54,560 --> 01:01:57,200
Speaker 3: and Christoph Baumgardner who left for Arby Leipzig. Their best

1245
01:01:57,240 --> 01:02:00,600
Speaker 3: wingback who's a key two Hoffenheim's three five two system

1246
01:02:00,600 --> 01:02:03,600
Speaker 3: in Angelino, who's now I believe playing for Galatas Arrive.

1247
01:02:04,840 --> 01:02:07,439
Speaker 3: So and then you look at Wolfsburg. The obviously lost

1248
01:02:07,480 --> 01:02:10,960
Speaker 3: Bend even their best center back to Tottenham Metcha, their

1249
01:02:10,960 --> 01:02:13,560
Speaker 3: best midfielder is off to Dortmund. But they've been very

1250
01:02:13,560 --> 01:02:17,520
Speaker 3: impressive for the first two matches. They beat Heidenheim pretty convincingly.

1251
01:02:17,560 --> 01:02:19,920
Speaker 3: They went and beat Cologne on the road this past weekend.

1252
01:02:20,280 --> 01:02:23,200
Speaker 3: They've been rock solid defensively, only one point zero six

1253
01:02:23,360 --> 01:02:25,720
Speaker 3: XG allowed from open play. That's the lowest of anybody

1254
01:02:25,760 --> 01:02:29,160
Speaker 3: in the Bundesliga to start the season. And Kob actually

1255
01:02:29,240 --> 01:02:31,760
Speaker 3: turned this team around post World Cup break. They and

1256
01:02:31,800 --> 01:02:33,960
Speaker 3: they turned into an offensive force one point six to

1257
01:02:34,000 --> 01:02:37,480
Speaker 3: seven XTG for ninety after the World Cup, so if

1258
01:02:37,520 --> 01:02:39,280
Speaker 3: you look at it, they were a plus point two

1259
01:02:39,280 --> 01:02:42,440
Speaker 3: actually differential post World Cup. Hoffenheim is minus point four

1260
01:02:42,480 --> 01:02:44,720
Speaker 3: to four. So even if you take home field advantage

1261
01:02:44,720 --> 01:02:48,640
Speaker 3: in Wolfburgs Chill still should be a favorite here. So

1262
01:02:48,680 --> 01:02:50,240
Speaker 3: I like them drawing up bet at even.

1263
01:02:50,000 --> 01:02:53,680
Speaker 1: Money, Okay, La Liga time at let it go. Madrid

1264
01:02:54,080 --> 01:02:57,280
Speaker 1: gotta set the world record for most goals ever scored

1265
01:02:57,280 --> 01:02:57,480
Speaker 1: in it.

1266
01:02:57,520 --> 01:03:00,840
Speaker 3: I can't wait for EU. I can't gonna be great.

1267
01:03:01,400 --> 01:03:02,200
Speaker 1: What do you got, PJ?

1268
01:03:02,880 --> 01:03:04,360
Speaker 3: I mean, I love that buddy co minus one and

1269
01:03:04,400 --> 01:03:06,960
Speaker 3: a half. They're playing Sevilla, well one and a half

1270
01:03:07,000 --> 01:03:09,600
Speaker 3: plus one thirty five anything. He's giving me a face

1271
01:03:09,680 --> 01:03:14,040
Speaker 3: right now. I mean, seven goals against Viacona. I mean,

1272
01:03:14,080 --> 01:03:17,160
Speaker 3: it's just a SEMONI saw a tweet and it was

1273
01:03:17,280 --> 01:03:19,640
Speaker 3: very funny. It was like only semeone can figure out

1274
01:03:19,640 --> 01:03:21,160
Speaker 3: how to score seven goals out of a five to

1275
01:03:21,200 --> 01:03:23,120
Speaker 3: three two And they just overloaded the right side of

1276
01:03:23,120 --> 01:03:25,880
Speaker 3: the pitch and they just completely destroyed Viacono all time

1277
01:03:25,880 --> 01:03:28,560
Speaker 3: and time again. And now they're gonna play Savilla, who's

1278
01:03:28,600 --> 01:03:31,240
Speaker 3: down two center backs down Marcus Aucunya, not really much

1279
01:03:31,280 --> 01:03:34,560
Speaker 3: defensive work there. And you know, I've just Michael, I've

1280
01:03:34,560 --> 01:03:36,680
Speaker 3: missed out on three Sevilla faates to begin the season,

1281
01:03:36,680 --> 01:03:38,800
Speaker 3: and that's on me, And so of course I'm gonna

1282
01:03:38,840 --> 01:03:40,400
Speaker 3: jump in here for the fourth time and it's probably

1283
01:03:40,400 --> 01:03:45,360
Speaker 3: gonna go terribly. But Sevilla is just continually so so

1284
01:03:45,520 --> 01:03:49,120
Speaker 3: bad defensively and they not solve any issues whatsoever. So

1285
01:03:49,840 --> 01:03:55,120
Speaker 3: I think Athletico absolutely pounds them. Projected Athleticico spread at

1286
01:03:55,200 --> 01:03:57,840
Speaker 3: minus around minus one point five. So if you're give

1287
01:03:57,880 --> 01:03:59,959
Speaker 3: me minus one and a half at plus one thirty five,

1288
01:04:01,240 --> 01:04:02,040
Speaker 3: I love that price.

1289
01:04:02,840 --> 01:04:03,760
Speaker 1: What do you got, Anthony?

1290
01:04:04,000 --> 01:04:05,880
Speaker 2: Look, I love the real Madrid midfield and I think

1291
01:04:05,880 --> 01:04:08,760
Speaker 2: it does give a nice boost to their defensive outlook.

1292
01:04:08,800 --> 01:04:12,040
Speaker 2: And they lose Militao, which will hurt their defensive look.

1293
01:04:12,160 --> 01:04:14,800
Speaker 2: But this midfield is so good that teams just don't

1294
01:04:14,840 --> 01:04:16,760
Speaker 2: get the ball into their penalty area as much anymore.

1295
01:04:16,800 --> 01:04:19,520
Speaker 2: And that's one thing through three matches that's already evident

1296
01:04:19,800 --> 01:04:23,360
Speaker 2: in improving their numbers. But this attack is now in

1297
01:04:23,600 --> 01:04:25,920
Speaker 2: kind of light. You know, Venetius goes down with an injury.

1298
01:04:25,920 --> 01:04:27,800
Speaker 2: They're calling up this nineteen year old kid from the

1299
01:04:27,840 --> 01:04:31,480
Speaker 2: youth team Castilla to feature, maybe come off the bench here,

1300
01:04:31,560 --> 01:04:34,360
Speaker 2: because it doesn't look like Venetia's gonna play. Maybe had

1301
01:04:34,360 --> 01:04:36,400
Speaker 2: a little while here, and that means it's gonna be

1302
01:04:36,520 --> 01:04:39,479
Speaker 2: just a lou and Rodrigo as the main attacking strike

1303
01:04:39,600 --> 01:04:42,120
Speaker 2: duo and against the Gaitafe team that's more than comfortable

1304
01:04:42,200 --> 01:04:44,280
Speaker 2: playing without the ball and will not even try to

1305
01:04:44,280 --> 01:04:46,959
Speaker 2: score for large parts to this match. You have seen

1306
01:04:46,960 --> 01:04:49,280
Speaker 2: the market move here. You know it is plus one fifteen.

1307
01:04:49,800 --> 01:04:51,440
Speaker 2: Now it's come down about even money. If you can

1308
01:04:51,440 --> 01:04:53,000
Speaker 2: get even money, I'd like under two and a half

1309
01:04:53,000 --> 01:04:55,240
Speaker 2: in that match. If you have to start laying juice,

1310
01:04:55,240 --> 01:04:57,480
Speaker 2: it is getting a little too low. So two and

1311
01:04:57,520 --> 01:04:59,200
Speaker 2: a half under for me, even money or better.

1312
01:05:00,320 --> 01:05:03,920
Speaker 1: Uh, time to move to Syria. Antony and I passing BJ.

1313
01:05:04,080 --> 01:05:05,760
Speaker 3: I like Leche at home. You guys want to get

1314
01:05:05,760 --> 01:05:10,640
Speaker 3: to who they're playing. No, they're they're even money favorite

1315
01:05:10,640 --> 01:05:14,440
Speaker 3: at home. They're playing one of my favorite teams. Salnyitana,

1316
01:05:14,960 --> 01:05:18,960
Speaker 3: who is running my gods again, WHI chose the greatest

1317
01:05:19,000 --> 01:05:22,160
Speaker 3: goalkeeper in the world, Whodia is the best striker in

1318
01:05:22,200 --> 01:05:26,680
Speaker 3: the world. They they drew Roma to two and I'm

1319
01:05:26,720 --> 01:05:28,040
Speaker 3: not gonna say it, but you can just go look

1320
01:05:28,040 --> 01:05:30,960
Speaker 3: at the box score for how pregious it was. I

1321
01:05:30,960 --> 01:05:32,560
Speaker 3: told Anthony, I don't know if I can do this

1322
01:05:32,640 --> 01:05:37,360
Speaker 3: anymore with this team, like they're just impervious to running

1323
01:05:37,400 --> 01:05:39,080
Speaker 3: bad and I don't really know what to do but

1324
01:05:39,680 --> 01:05:42,240
Speaker 3: this price here Alleche team that actually is very good,

1325
01:05:42,280 --> 01:05:45,400
Speaker 3: a very good pressing team. They were top five defensive

1326
01:05:45,400 --> 01:05:48,080
Speaker 3: action last season. They're not a great team. But sal

1327
01:05:48,120 --> 01:05:52,640
Speaker 3: Anitana was a favorite of minus eighteen expect goal differentially

1328
01:05:52,640 --> 01:05:54,840
Speaker 3: away from home last season. That's close to a goal

1329
01:05:54,880 --> 01:05:59,360
Speaker 3: for ninety in terms of actually differential Aleche was actually

1330
01:05:59,360 --> 01:06:02,920
Speaker 3: a positive spect to goal differential team at home. I

1331
01:06:02,920 --> 01:06:04,360
Speaker 3: don't know how much longer I can do. This was

1332
01:06:04,400 --> 01:06:07,640
Speaker 3: salar any Tana before I have to quit, just I

1333
01:06:07,640 --> 01:06:10,280
Speaker 3: have to ignore them. But I'm sure Ocho will make

1334
01:06:10,280 --> 01:06:13,600
Speaker 3: twelve saves in this match, and I'm sure Bluladio will

1335
01:06:13,600 --> 01:06:15,600
Speaker 3: score from outside the box in one of their only

1336
01:06:15,640 --> 01:06:18,800
Speaker 3: two shots. But I'll lose it. But it's okay, I like,

1337
01:06:19,120 --> 01:06:20,440
Speaker 3: I like, let's say even money.

1338
01:06:20,560 --> 01:06:22,600
Speaker 1: It's a rousing argument. I would about league.

1339
01:06:22,600 --> 01:06:25,640
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, like red plus one ten on the road

1340
01:06:25,680 --> 01:06:28,560
Speaker 3: against Stad de Brestoa, who been a little bit of

1341
01:06:28,600 --> 01:06:31,000
Speaker 3: a luck box to begin the season. They were if

1342
01:06:31,040 --> 01:06:33,200
Speaker 3: you listen to or euro preview pod, they were one

1343
01:06:33,200 --> 01:06:34,960
Speaker 3: of the teams I like to be relegated from this

1344
01:06:35,160 --> 01:06:38,840
Speaker 3: where you know. Frantic Cornatt has now moved to Gladbach

1345
01:06:38,880 --> 01:06:40,680
Speaker 3: to help us get that six to one ticket across

1346
01:06:40,680 --> 01:06:43,160
Speaker 3: the line. He was their best attacking player point four

1347
01:06:43,200 --> 01:06:45,760
Speaker 3: to eight actually plus expected SIS for ninety. They haven't

1348
01:06:45,760 --> 01:06:48,520
Speaker 3: really done anything to place him. They did be Lens

1349
01:06:48,600 --> 01:06:51,400
Speaker 3: to begin the season, scored three goals, two of them

1350
01:06:51,400 --> 01:06:54,160
Speaker 3: were off penalties. Then they played a very even match

1351
01:06:54,200 --> 01:06:56,720
Speaker 3: with Lejabre where they ended up winning two one, and

1352
01:06:56,720 --> 01:06:59,880
Speaker 3: then they just get absolutely pounded by Marseille this past week.

1353
01:07:00,000 --> 01:07:03,000
Speaker 3: And this red team have They've lost a couple of players,

1354
01:07:03,040 --> 01:07:05,200
Speaker 3: but I mean they've been awesome to begin the season.

1355
01:07:05,320 --> 01:07:07,360
Speaker 3: You know, they created four expected goals in their first match,

1356
01:07:07,400 --> 01:07:09,080
Speaker 3: they got caught on the wrong side of variance against

1357
01:07:09,120 --> 01:07:11,480
Speaker 3: Lehobra and their last one. And I went through my

1358
01:07:11,520 --> 01:07:15,040
Speaker 3: projections because I'm projecting ran and around minus one fifty,

1359
01:07:15,040 --> 01:07:17,760
Speaker 3: which I'm like, that seems pretty high. But they've been

1360
01:07:17,800 --> 01:07:19,680
Speaker 3: really good in terms of XSHT to begin the season.

1361
01:07:20,000 --> 01:07:21,919
Speaker 3: So I just took out everything that's happened in the season,

1362
01:07:21,920 --> 01:07:23,520
Speaker 3: be like, what would I have them last season going

1363
01:07:23,520 --> 01:07:26,160
Speaker 3: into it? I would have them minus one twenty seven.

1364
01:07:26,200 --> 01:07:29,880
Speaker 3: So I still think there's decent value here on Ren

1365
01:07:30,480 --> 01:07:32,240
Speaker 3: at plus one ten on the road against what I

1366
01:07:32,240 --> 01:07:35,600
Speaker 3: believe is a bottom five team in France.

1367
01:07:36,120 --> 01:07:40,000
Speaker 1: Okay, that wraps up the European journey. It's not time

1368
01:07:40,120 --> 01:07:44,960
Speaker 1: for our three leg underdog parlay. This one's gonna pop

1369
01:07:45,000 --> 01:07:50,720
Speaker 1: out around two thirteen to one, Anthony, and you this

1370
01:07:50,840 --> 01:07:52,680
Speaker 1: might be the first time that I have the shortest

1371
01:07:52,760 --> 01:07:53,439
Speaker 1: leg of them all.

1372
01:07:54,000 --> 01:07:59,400
Speaker 2: So amazing. Yeah, it's it's Brushian watching Gladbach. They've been

1373
01:07:59,440 --> 01:08:02,280
Speaker 2: a frequent of this parlay despite their general regression as

1374
01:08:02,320 --> 01:08:05,200
Speaker 2: a club. They are six to one against Bayern Munich

1375
01:08:05,240 --> 01:08:08,120
Speaker 2: and my super Bowl. I'm extremely looking forward to this

1376
01:08:08,200 --> 01:08:11,840
Speaker 2: match as the top spiel of twelve thirty Eastern on Saturday.

1377
01:08:12,760 --> 01:08:16,120
Speaker 2: Probably won't win, but you know what, the other bets

1378
01:08:16,160 --> 01:08:18,400
Speaker 2: on Gladbach in the past probably wouldn't have won either,

1379
01:08:18,439 --> 01:08:21,000
Speaker 2: and then they did, so you really never know when

1380
01:08:21,000 --> 01:08:23,760
Speaker 2: these two teams meet. A former friend of the pot,

1381
01:08:23,840 --> 01:08:26,519
Speaker 2: Eric Wandalda, you know, he's talked about this and we

1382
01:08:26,560 --> 01:08:29,519
Speaker 2: both called it in the spring when they did win.

1383
01:08:29,680 --> 01:08:33,000
Speaker 2: So the Foles, come on, Foles, go get those goals.

1384
01:08:33,960 --> 01:08:35,600
Speaker 2: We're probably gonna get relegated, but we're still going to

1385
01:08:35,640 --> 01:08:36,840
Speaker 2: take six off Buyer this year.

1386
01:08:38,160 --> 01:08:40,400
Speaker 1: Come on, Foals, go get those goals. Come on, Bourne with.

1387
01:08:41,960 --> 01:08:42,000
Speaker 3: It.

1388
01:08:42,040 --> 01:08:43,960
Speaker 1: Feels a little weird to go against Brentford in the

1389
01:08:44,000 --> 01:08:46,200
Speaker 1: spot because they've probably been the team that treated us.

1390
01:08:46,400 --> 01:08:47,920
Speaker 1: They are the team that treated us the best. They

1391
01:08:47,920 --> 01:08:50,599
Speaker 1: were nineteen to one when they beat City and we

1392
01:08:50,680 --> 01:08:54,040
Speaker 1: cashed our two hundred to one to one parlay before

1393
01:08:54,040 --> 01:08:56,960
Speaker 1: the World Cup last year. I'm going against them here

1394
01:08:56,960 --> 01:08:58,960
Speaker 1: with Bourne with plus three seventy five. I just think

1395
01:08:59,000 --> 01:09:01,519
Speaker 1: that the numbers is getting a little bit out of

1396
01:09:01,560 --> 01:09:05,840
Speaker 1: hand on Brentford. Good team, great, really solid Premier League team.

1397
01:09:05,880 --> 01:09:08,639
Speaker 1: But I think that this born With team should start

1398
01:09:08,640 --> 01:09:10,639
Speaker 1: trending up eventually. I kind of want to be there

1399
01:09:10,640 --> 01:09:13,600
Speaker 1: for when it happens, and what better time to do

1400
01:09:13,640 --> 01:09:16,040
Speaker 1: it than right before the international break, So give me

1401
01:09:16,080 --> 01:09:18,799
Speaker 1: the cherries. I think that this number plus three seventy

1402
01:09:18,800 --> 01:09:21,560
Speaker 1: five is is well worth backing bj.

1403
01:09:22,000 --> 01:09:24,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've I've been kind of waiting to talk about

1404
01:09:24,160 --> 01:09:26,720
Speaker 3: this team in Spain. Last Palmas five to one on

1405
01:09:26,760 --> 01:09:30,040
Speaker 3: the road against Girona. Girona has actually lost quite a

1406
01:09:30,040 --> 01:09:32,880
Speaker 3: bit of players. They just came out today that Santiago Bueno,

1407
01:09:32,920 --> 01:09:34,960
Speaker 3: who is their best center back, is on making his

1408
01:09:35,000 --> 01:09:39,160
Speaker 3: way to Wolves in a deal. They've lost Romeo to Barcelona,

1409
01:09:39,240 --> 01:09:43,120
Speaker 3: Tasacasianos to Lazio. Those three guys played the most minutes

1410
01:09:43,120 --> 01:09:46,040
Speaker 3: of anybody for them last season, and this lost Palmas team.

1411
01:09:46,080 --> 01:09:49,800
Speaker 3: Although they don't have the talent necessarily to compete with

1412
01:09:49,840 --> 01:09:53,559
Speaker 3: the top of La Liga, they can very much compete

1413
01:09:53,560 --> 01:09:55,840
Speaker 3: with the mid table teams like Sharona last season in

1414
01:09:55,880 --> 01:09:59,439
Speaker 3: the second division plus zero point seventy four actually differential

1415
01:09:59,439 --> 01:10:02,320
Speaker 3: per ninety, the barrier to entry in Spain in terms

1416
01:10:02,360 --> 01:10:05,120
Speaker 3: of promoted teams really isn't that drastic Comparatively to the

1417
01:10:05,120 --> 01:10:08,120
Speaker 3: Premier League teams coming up from the second Division to

1418
01:10:08,120 --> 01:10:10,559
Speaker 3: Spain in their first season, see about a forty five

1419
01:10:10,560 --> 01:10:13,839
Speaker 3: percent decrease and there's expected gold differential. So before accounting

1420
01:10:13,840 --> 01:10:16,479
Speaker 3: for obviously, you know, lost Palmas per transfer market dot

1421
01:10:16,479 --> 01:10:19,480
Speaker 3: com as the lowest talent level of anybody in La Liga.

1422
01:10:19,560 --> 01:10:23,240
Speaker 3: But taking just pure math, before accounting for talent, I

1423
01:10:23,320 --> 01:10:25,880
Speaker 3: have them projected around and even expected goal differential team.

1424
01:10:25,920 --> 01:10:27,800
Speaker 3: Now they probably want to end up being that, but

1425
01:10:27,840 --> 01:10:31,040
Speaker 3: they put in a really, really impressive performance against Rial

1426
01:10:31,040 --> 01:10:34,679
Speaker 3: Associated in their past match. I tweeted out one point

1427
01:10:34,680 --> 01:10:36,600
Speaker 3: four x get to nothing in the first half, and

1428
01:10:36,640 --> 01:10:38,600
Speaker 3: then of course you know real soci that took the

1429
01:10:38,640 --> 01:10:40,439
Speaker 3: Reins back and ended up being pretty even matched. But

1430
01:10:40,760 --> 01:10:42,560
Speaker 3: I think this price is way too high on the

1431
01:10:42,640 --> 01:10:45,040
Speaker 3: coirona team that's that's lost three of their best players.

1432
01:10:45,080 --> 01:10:47,120
Speaker 3: So lost Palmas five to one.

1433
01:10:46,920 --> 01:10:51,200
Speaker 1: For me, Los Palmas bornmth Gladbach two hundred and thirteen

1434
01:10:51,240 --> 01:10:55,759
Speaker 1: to one. Perfect way to go into the end of summer.

1435
01:10:56,120 --> 01:11:02,600
Speaker 1: Ended with a bang or ended with loose pretty easily, Anthony,

1436
01:11:02,960 --> 01:11:05,040
Speaker 1: your best bet in the Premier League this weekend.

1437
01:11:04,840 --> 01:11:07,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's gonna be Crystal Palace minus one ten. My

1438
01:11:07,880 --> 01:11:09,719
Speaker 2: biggest projected edge is Brighton, but I am a little

1439
01:11:09,720 --> 01:11:11,880
Speaker 2: worried about the tactical matchup there, so I'm gonna not

1440
01:11:11,880 --> 01:11:13,200
Speaker 2: make that my best bet. I'm gonna go with the

1441
01:11:13,320 --> 01:11:16,120
Speaker 2: Eagles at home, who now have a boost. In that

1442
01:11:16,120 --> 01:11:18,360
Speaker 2: boost is that they're keeping Olise and that they're going

1443
01:11:18,400 --> 01:11:21,639
Speaker 2: to be enough of an attack to warrant this price,

1444
01:11:21,640 --> 01:11:23,519
Speaker 2: and I actually think they're a little undervalued. They're better

1445
01:11:23,800 --> 01:11:25,799
Speaker 2: at both ends of the pitch than this Wolf side.

1446
01:11:26,320 --> 01:11:28,920
Speaker 2: I think Wolves, you know, they've had some encouraging performances

1447
01:11:28,920 --> 01:11:30,599
Speaker 2: that have made us say, hey, look this team can

1448
01:11:30,640 --> 01:11:33,880
Speaker 2: really play in transition against United and Brighton. But I

1449
01:11:33,960 --> 01:11:36,400
Speaker 2: thought the performance against Everton was more similar to what

1450
01:11:36,439 --> 01:11:40,400
Speaker 2: I expect from them, which is really lackluster play in

1451
01:11:40,479 --> 01:11:43,280
Speaker 2: build up, turn the ball over high a lot, and

1452
01:11:43,320 --> 01:11:45,280
Speaker 2: I think they're going to struggle with the Palace Press

1453
01:11:45,479 --> 01:11:48,880
Speaker 2: and they're going to struggle with the Eagles generally here.

1454
01:11:48,920 --> 01:11:51,000
Speaker 2: And so you know, the market has liked this Palace

1455
01:11:51,040 --> 01:11:53,960
Speaker 2: team and I am believing in that and buying them

1456
01:11:54,000 --> 01:11:55,000
Speaker 2: at minus one ten here.

1457
01:11:55,160 --> 01:11:57,960
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Aston Villa there plus three sixty. I

1458
01:11:58,040 --> 01:12:02,519
Speaker 1: like the money line against Liverpool. I think that this

1459
01:12:02,640 --> 01:12:06,280
Speaker 1: match sets up really well for Villa. We've seen some

1460
01:12:06,320 --> 01:12:09,760
Speaker 1: serious warts on this Liverpool defense already this season. They

1461
01:12:09,800 --> 01:12:12,400
Speaker 1: haven't been able to really stop Bourne myth. They've made

1462
01:12:12,400 --> 01:12:15,920
Speaker 1: mistakes against Chelsea, they struggled against Newcastle. Somehow they've come

1463
01:12:15,920 --> 01:12:18,120
Speaker 1: out of those matches with seven points out of a

1464
01:12:18,160 --> 01:12:21,040
Speaker 1: possible nine. Now they have to deal with Virgil and

1465
01:12:21,120 --> 01:12:24,760
Speaker 1: Gunte not being in the back line against the Villa

1466
01:12:24,840 --> 01:12:28,880
Speaker 1: team that is firing offensively, creating chances for fun. I

1467
01:12:28,920 --> 01:12:31,240
Speaker 1: think that this match could get drunk pretty quick. It

1468
01:12:31,240 --> 01:12:33,160
Speaker 1: could be you know, four to two, four to three,

1469
01:12:33,520 --> 01:12:35,800
Speaker 1: and I just don't trust the Liverpool defense to get

1470
01:12:35,800 --> 01:12:38,719
Speaker 1: that one extra stop that they might need against aston Villa,

1471
01:12:39,160 --> 01:12:41,960
Speaker 1: So give me the villains in what looks like a

1472
01:12:42,000 --> 01:12:45,639
Speaker 1: great spot for Unai Emery's men against the depleted Liverpool

1473
01:12:45,680 --> 01:12:47,479
Speaker 1: back line BJ What about you.

1474
01:12:47,520 --> 01:12:50,320
Speaker 3: Brighton Newcastle over three and a half goals a plus

1475
01:12:50,400 --> 01:12:54,360
Speaker 3: one thirty four. This is an incredibly interesting tactical matchup

1476
01:12:54,360 --> 01:12:56,320
Speaker 3: for Brighton. Who a team that primarily wants to build

1477
01:12:56,320 --> 01:12:58,360
Speaker 3: another back who wants to bait you into pressing. And

1478
01:12:58,360 --> 01:13:00,439
Speaker 3: there are very few teams in the world that can

1479
01:13:00,560 --> 01:13:02,559
Speaker 3: really beat Brighton up when they try to build out

1480
01:13:02,600 --> 01:13:04,680
Speaker 3: the back, and Newcastle is one of those teams. They

1481
01:13:04,720 --> 01:13:07,160
Speaker 3: did it to them last season at Saint James Park

1482
01:13:07,160 --> 01:13:09,000
Speaker 3: where they created a ton of high turnovers and ended

1483
01:13:09,080 --> 01:13:11,160
Speaker 3: up winning the match for one created three point six

1484
01:13:11,240 --> 01:13:14,960
Speaker 3: expected goals, and Brighton's looked really, really shaky defensively through

1485
01:13:15,040 --> 01:13:19,280
Speaker 3: three matches. They've conceded six point six expected goals to Wolves,

1486
01:13:19,640 --> 01:13:22,640
Speaker 3: west Ham and Lwtontown. It's not exactly Murderer's row, and

1487
01:13:22,720 --> 01:13:26,280
Speaker 3: Newcastle showed against specially aston Villa, that they can create

1488
01:13:26,280 --> 01:13:28,400
Speaker 3: those high turnovers and they can cause a ton of

1489
01:13:28,479 --> 01:13:30,960
Speaker 3: chaos in transition. But the flip side of it is

1490
01:13:31,280 --> 01:13:33,880
Speaker 3: Brighton has created the most expected goals of anybody in there.

1491
01:13:34,040 --> 01:13:36,720
Speaker 3: Like they're an incredible offense and they can get through

1492
01:13:36,720 --> 01:13:40,080
Speaker 3: this Newcastle high press and Newcastle on the Once Brighton

1493
01:13:40,120 --> 01:13:42,679
Speaker 3: gets beyond that first line of the press, Newcastle's getting

1494
01:13:42,760 --> 01:13:45,120
Speaker 3: weaker and weaker in their defense. Well made them so

1495
01:13:45,200 --> 01:13:48,120
Speaker 3: great defensively last season, it's because nobody got hurt. They

1496
01:13:48,200 --> 01:13:51,160
Speaker 3: played the same back four for pretty much the entire season. Well,

1497
01:13:51,160 --> 01:13:53,200
Speaker 3: now their best center backs VN Botman is hurt, which

1498
01:13:53,200 --> 01:13:55,000
Speaker 3: means they're gonna have to slot Dan Burn back at

1499
01:13:55,000 --> 01:13:57,200
Speaker 3: center back and then Matthew Target's gonna come out and

1500
01:13:57,360 --> 01:13:59,519
Speaker 3: play left back. So the Newcastle defense has to be

1501
01:13:59,560 --> 01:14:02,800
Speaker 3: downgrade against what is just an incredible Brighton attack. So

1502
01:14:03,040 --> 01:14:05,160
Speaker 3: once the first goal goes in here, I think we're

1503
01:14:05,200 --> 01:14:07,400
Speaker 3: going to just see chaos from n Nan. So I

1504
01:14:07,479 --> 01:14:09,120
Speaker 3: love over three and a half goals at plus one

1505
01:14:09,160 --> 01:14:09,599
Speaker 3: thirty four.

1506
01:14:09,920 --> 01:14:12,439
Speaker 1: All right, that does it for this episode of Wonder Goal.

1507
01:14:12,560 --> 01:14:15,880
Speaker 1: Thank you again, BJ, Thank you again, Anthony. Thank you

1508
01:14:15,920 --> 01:14:21,240
Speaker 1: to our producer Noah, our directors of sound Matt Mitchell

1509
01:14:21,280 --> 01:14:24,200
Speaker 1: and David Payne. Thank you to our sponsors Bettery six

1510
01:14:24,240 --> 01:14:27,280
Speaker 1: y five and Countdrea lab and good luck to everybody listening,

1511
01:14:27,520 --> 01:14:30,560
Speaker 1: enjoy Labor Day weekend. If you're here in the States,

1512
01:14:31,000 --> 01:14:33,280
Speaker 1: good luck with all your bets. Hopefully you jump in

1513
01:14:33,320 --> 01:14:36,919
Speaker 1: on this parlay with us and maybe we can all

1514
01:14:37,120 --> 01:14:40,680
Speaker 1: buy a ship somewhere together. If it cash is be

1515
01:14:40,720 --> 01:14:43,720
Speaker 1: sure to check out our other podcasts. College football is

1516
01:14:43,760 --> 01:14:47,439
Speaker 1: firing up again. It's week one BBOC Big Bets on

1517
01:14:47,479 --> 01:14:50,479
Speaker 1: Campus is back. The Action Network podcast will get you

1518
01:14:51,040 --> 01:14:54,639
Speaker 1: settled with all your NFL betting needs, but of course

1519
01:14:54,880 --> 01:14:57,439
Speaker 1: make sure wonder goal is your priority, and then make

1520
01:14:57,479 --> 01:14:59,360
Speaker 1: it a co priority when line change returns in a

1521
01:14:59,360 --> 01:14:59,920
Speaker 1: couple of weeks.

1522
01:15:00,080 --> 01:15:02,760
Speaker 3: And one more things. Michael Beck, Me and Anthony will

1523
01:15:02,760 --> 01:15:05,200
Speaker 3: be on the Action Network Soccer discord page. You're in

1524
01:15:05,240 --> 01:15:07,240
Speaker 3: the Champions League draw if you're listening to this on

1525
01:15:07,320 --> 01:15:09,920
Speaker 3: Thursday morning with Champions League draw is at twelve pm

1526
01:15:10,080 --> 01:15:12,000
Speaker 3: Eastern time, so if you want to come, just chat

1527
01:15:12,160 --> 01:15:14,400
Speaker 3: us as the draw is going along. Hop in the

1528
01:15:14,400 --> 01:15:15,360
Speaker 3: Action Network discord.

1529
01:15:15,560 --> 01:15:19,760
Speaker 1: There you go. The sports season's ear all firing back up.

1530
01:15:20,000 --> 01:15:22,240
Speaker 1: Of course, the US Open is going on too, so

1531
01:15:22,760 --> 01:15:25,000
Speaker 1: good luck with whatever you're betting this weekend. Good luck,

1532
01:15:25,840 --> 01:15:28,720
Speaker 1: especially if you are betting evident you will need it.

1533
01:15:38,080 --> 01:15:42,600
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1534
01:15:42,640 --> 01:15:45,400
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1535
01:15:45,439 --> 01:15:48,599
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler