Speaker 1: Single best idea after the idea of a five day
Speaker 1: week that was absolutely extraordinary. We knew going in this
Speaker 1: would be the busiest week of the summer, all sorts
Speaker 1: of economic data, earnings, market reaction, international relations, which was
Speaker 1: ever more surprising than we ever could have expected. It
Speaker 1: has been an extraordinary week and none more so. And
Speaker 1: the quality of the guests that we've delivered. The team
Speaker 1: has just done an absolutely superb job of giving you voices.
Speaker 1: One of the highlights, just a little vignette, is Jamie
Speaker 1: Diamond of JP Morgan came out with a Washington Post
Speaker 1: essay today laying out what this nation needs to do
Speaker 1: to move on to the next administration, whomever will be president,
Speaker 1: and he harkened back to Doris Carnes Goodwin and he said,
Speaker 1: we need a team of rivals arguing collegially in the
Speaker 1: White House. We started with that. Thank you Zach Cohen
Speaker 1: of Bloomberg News for giving his perspective on and I
Speaker 1: like the busted chops on Secretary Diamond. I'm sure he
Speaker 1: doesn't want to hear that right now, but that's how
Speaker 1: we started Friday today. One of the high points here
Speaker 1: along with Richard Clared, Bill Dudley and others was a
Speaker 1: great privilege of having Claudia sm as the jobs report
Speaker 1: came out. I don't want to go into a lot
Speaker 1: of time here, a lot of detail, but to needless
Speaker 1: to say she is the most acclaimed economist in America today,
Speaker 1: no question about that. Claudia Sam out of the Fed,
Speaker 1: out of Michigan, I should say, out of the Fed,
Speaker 1: Brooks's institution, and now a new century. Claudia Sam in
Speaker 1: her Palm rule. Here she is after that grim jobs
Speaker 1: report at eight thirty one this morning.
Speaker 2: This has seen way too much momentum in the unemployment
Speaker 2: rate in recent months, I mean four point three percent.
Speaker 2: This is not so whether we are at that moment
Speaker 2: of a recession or not. This is your build into
Speaker 2: substantial weakening in the labor market. All is not lost,
Speaker 2: we are you know, the bottle's offing out. We should
Speaker 2: never panic. There are policy tools, there are levers, and
Speaker 2: you know again I don't overread one data point, but
Speaker 2: this isn't one data point.
Speaker 1: Claudia. Some on the sum rule, and with great great collegiality,
Speaker 1: Michael McKee and others will say, well, the two or
Speaker 1: three digits this or that or the other thing, all
Speaker 1: I know is we thank doctor Some for sitting with
Speaker 1: us for this jobs report and her adjusting her view
Speaker 1: of the American economy. Now we saw that later on
Speaker 1: with Ethan Harris, a Bank of America would join us,
Speaker 1: and it was something to see doctor Harris just say
Speaker 1: flat out I was wrong about the speed of the
Speaker 1: deterioration of the American labor economy. We go back to
Speaker 1: doctor Sam Claudia Some on the New America.
Speaker 2: We have had a lot of disruptions in the labor force,
Speaker 2: so the supply of workers even go back to the beginning
Speaker 2: of the pandemic, millions of people dropping out, and then
Speaker 2: we had labor shortages, and then we had larger immigration
Speaker 2: coming in. Like this has just been a lot and
Speaker 2: we all know personally, and then also in the economy,
Speaker 2: adjustments can be hard if they are big and sunny,
Speaker 2: and we've had a lot of that. And so this
Speaker 2: is absolutely in there in these increases in nounemployment rate,
Speaker 2: we are still working through disruptions. And yet underneath that
Speaker 2: is also a much more typical, pernicious, not good increase
Speaker 2: in the unemployment rate of just there's less demand for workers.
Speaker 1: Claudia Sam of New Century Advisors. Joining us after doctor
Speaker 1: sim was Neil Dudda of Renmeack. Neil Dudda was my
Speaker 1: Economist of the Year for two twenty three, shocking optimism
Speaker 1: while others are gloomy. It's not that he's lost the optimism.
Speaker 1: He believes in a resilient American economic experiment. But at
Speaker 1: the same time he looks at the facts and the
Speaker 1: facts have changed. For Bill Dudda in his Bloomberg opinion
Speaker 1: piece earlier this week, and also for Neil Dutta. For
Speaker 1: Neil Dutta, the facts have changed after that job report,
Speaker 1: looking at the FED, linking the Labor Economic Report and
Speaker 1: the tough revisions over to the FED. Neil Dutta of Renmack.
Speaker 3: I mean, the problem with the economy is that monetary
Speaker 3: policy is too tight, and that means the looser monetary
Speaker 3: policy can help resolve the problem. And so you know,
Speaker 3: from my perspective, the FED can just keep cutting until
Speaker 3: the economy turns, and there's a lot of room for
Speaker 3: them to do so. So I think that would be
Speaker 3: the optimistic sort of spin on things, is that you know,
Speaker 3: the Feed has plenty of ammunition to kind of you know,
Speaker 3: course correct here I think they'll use it. And you know,
Speaker 3: this isn't about household balance sheet deflation. This isn't about
Speaker 3: corporate balance sheet recessions like oh one, This isn't about
Speaker 3: an asset bubble bursting. This is just about monetary policy
Speaker 3: being too tight.
Speaker 1: Neil dudda of Renmack, We thank him for his support
Speaker 1: of all that we do. Again an extraordinary week. We
Speaker 1: staggered forward to Chicago to Jackson Hole, and I can say,
Speaker 1: as of eight thirty this morning, this is a different
Speaker 1: Jackson Hole that we will attend here fourth week of August.
Speaker 1: We are out on Apple car Play, on Android Auto,
Speaker 1: and on YouTube. I can't say enough about the YouTube
Speaker 1: experiment I watched last night on YouTube Premium. I'm a
Speaker 1: big fan of YouTube at premium. The Olympics, and boyd
Speaker 1: does it work on YouTube? No ads? On YouTube Premium
Speaker 1: you get none of the back and forth and the
Speaker 1: soap opera and all that. You just get the competition
Speaker 1: of the Olympics and the great announcers from NBC telling
Speaker 1: us what's going on. I loved watching the Olympics on YouTube.
Speaker 1: I hope you like watching us on YouTube and listening
Speaker 1: to us on YouTube at Bloomberg Podcasts. Subscribe to Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Podcasts out at YouTube. That's an eventful and growing project
Speaker 1: for us and on Apple podcasts. This is single best
Speaker 1: idea