WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Claudia Sahm & Neil Dutta

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<v Speaker 1>Single best idea after the idea of a five day

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<v Speaker 1>week that was absolutely extraordinary. We knew going in this

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<v Speaker 1>would be the busiest week of the summer, all sorts

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<v Speaker 1>of economic data, earnings, market reaction, international relations, which was

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<v Speaker 1>ever more surprising than we ever could have expected. It

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<v Speaker 1>has been an extraordinary week and none more so. And

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<v Speaker 1>the quality of the guests that we've delivered. The team

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<v Speaker 1>has just done an absolutely superb job of giving you voices.

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<v Speaker 1>One of the highlights, just a little vignette, is Jamie

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<v Speaker 1>Diamond of JP Morgan came out with a Washington Post

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<v Speaker 1>essay today laying out what this nation needs to do

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<v Speaker 1>to move on to the next administration, whomever will be president,

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<v Speaker 1>and he harkened back to Doris Carnes Goodwin and he said,

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<v Speaker 1>we need a team of rivals arguing collegially in the

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<v Speaker 1>White House. We started with that. Thank you Zach Cohen

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<v Speaker 1>of Bloomberg News for giving his perspective on and I

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<v Speaker 1>like the busted chops on Secretary Diamond. I'm sure he

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't want to hear that right now, but that's how

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<v Speaker 1>we started Friday today. One of the high points here

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<v Speaker 1>along with Richard Clared, Bill Dudley and others was a

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<v Speaker 1>great privilege of having Claudia sm as the jobs report

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<v Speaker 1>came out. I don't want to go into a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of time here, a lot of detail, but to needless

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<v Speaker 1>to say she is the most acclaimed economist in America today,

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<v Speaker 1>no question about that. Claudia Sam out of the Fed,

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<v Speaker 1>out of Michigan, I should say, out of the Fed,

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<v Speaker 1>Brooks's institution, and now a new century. Claudia Sam in

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<v Speaker 1>her Palm rule. Here she is after that grim jobs

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<v Speaker 1>report at eight thirty one this morning.

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<v Speaker 2>This has seen way too much momentum in the unemployment

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<v Speaker 2>rate in recent months, I mean four point three percent.

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<v Speaker 2>This is not so whether we are at that moment

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<v Speaker 2>of a recession or not. This is your build into

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<v Speaker 2>substantial weakening in the labor market. All is not lost,

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<v Speaker 2>we are you know, the bottle's offing out. We should

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<v Speaker 2>never panic. There are policy tools, there are levers, and

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<v Speaker 2>you know again I don't overread one data point, but

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<v Speaker 2>this isn't one data point.

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<v Speaker 1>Claudia. Some on the sum rule, and with great great collegiality,

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<v Speaker 1>Michael McKee and others will say, well, the two or

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<v Speaker 1>three digits this or that or the other thing, all

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<v Speaker 1>I know is we thank doctor Some for sitting with

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<v Speaker 1>us for this jobs report and her adjusting her view

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<v Speaker 1>of the American economy. Now we saw that later on

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<v Speaker 1>with Ethan Harris, a Bank of America would join us,

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<v Speaker 1>and it was something to see doctor Harris just say

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<v Speaker 1>flat out I was wrong about the speed of the

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<v Speaker 1>deterioration of the American labor economy. We go back to

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<v Speaker 1>doctor Sam Claudia Some on the New America.

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<v Speaker 2>We have had a lot of disruptions in the labor force,

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<v Speaker 2>so the supply of workers even go back to the beginning

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<v Speaker 2>of the pandemic, millions of people dropping out, and then

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<v Speaker 2>we had labor shortages, and then we had larger immigration

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<v Speaker 2>coming in. Like this has just been a lot and

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<v Speaker 2>we all know personally, and then also in the economy,

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<v Speaker 2>adjustments can be hard if they are big and sunny,

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<v Speaker 2>and we've had a lot of that. And so this

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<v Speaker 2>is absolutely in there in these increases in nounemployment rate,

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<v Speaker 2>we are still working through disruptions. And yet underneath that

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<v Speaker 2>is also a much more typical, pernicious, not good increase

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<v Speaker 2>in the unemployment rate of just there's less demand for workers.

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<v Speaker 1>Claudia Sam of New Century Advisors. Joining us after doctor

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<v Speaker 1>sim was Neil Dudda of Renmeack. Neil Dudda was my

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<v Speaker 1>Economist of the Year for two twenty three, shocking optimism

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<v Speaker 1>while others are gloomy. It's not that he's lost the optimism.

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<v Speaker 1>He believes in a resilient American economic experiment. But at

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<v Speaker 1>the same time he looks at the facts and the

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<v Speaker 1>facts have changed. For Bill Dudda in his Bloomberg opinion

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<v Speaker 1>piece earlier this week, and also for Neil Dutta. For

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<v Speaker 1>Neil Dutta, the facts have changed after that job report,

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<v Speaker 1>looking at the FED, linking the Labor Economic Report and

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<v Speaker 1>the tough revisions over to the FED. Neil Dutta of Renmack.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, the problem with the economy is that monetary

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<v Speaker 3>policy is too tight, and that means the looser monetary

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<v Speaker 3>policy can help resolve the problem. And so you know,

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<v Speaker 3>from my perspective, the FED can just keep cutting until

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<v Speaker 3>the economy turns, and there's a lot of room for

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<v Speaker 3>them to do so. So I think that would be

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<v Speaker 3>the optimistic sort of spin on things, is that you know,

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<v Speaker 3>the Feed has plenty of ammunition to kind of you know,

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<v Speaker 3>course correct here I think they'll use it. And you know,

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<v Speaker 3>this isn't about household balance sheet deflation. This isn't about

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<v Speaker 3>corporate balance sheet recessions like oh one, This isn't about

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<v Speaker 3>an asset bubble bursting. This is just about monetary policy

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<v Speaker 3>being too tight.

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<v Speaker 1>Neil dudda of Renmack, We thank him for his support

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<v Speaker 1>of all that we do. Again an extraordinary week. We

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<v Speaker 1>staggered forward to Chicago to Jackson Hole, and I can say,

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<v Speaker 1>as of eight thirty this morning, this is a different

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<v Speaker 1>Jackson Hole that we will attend here fourth week of August.

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<v Speaker 1>We are out on Apple car Play, on Android Auto,

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<v Speaker 1>and on YouTube. I can't say enough about the YouTube

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<v Speaker 1>experiment I watched last night on YouTube Premium. I'm a

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<v Speaker 1>big fan of YouTube at premium. The Olympics, and boyd

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<v Speaker 1>does it work on YouTube? No ads? On YouTube Premium

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<v Speaker 1>you get none of the back and forth and the

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<v Speaker 1>soap opera and all that. You just get the competition

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<v Speaker 1>of the Olympics and the great announcers from NBC telling

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<v Speaker 1>us what's going on. I loved watching the Olympics on YouTube.

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<v Speaker 1>I hope you like watching us on YouTube and listening

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<v Speaker 1>to us on YouTube at Bloomberg Podcasts. Subscribe to Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Podcasts out at YouTube. That's an eventful and growing project

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<v Speaker 1>for us and on Apple podcasts. This is single best

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<v Speaker 1>idea