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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Spreading the court ten seconds of eatings. Just go show

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Speaker 1: me up to the basket. Under the basket, it's.

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Speaker 2: The truth for the wind God.

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Speaker 1: A miracle. I chuck the water. Hit that one from

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Speaker 1: the parking lot. What's up the generation? Welcome to the

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Speaker 1: Big Bets on Campus Podcast. This is the weekend college

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Speaker 1: basketball betting preview presented by bet MGM. I'm stucky and

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Speaker 1: joining me today is just Mike Calabrese. It is DJ's

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Speaker 1: not here. He had a family obligation, so it's just

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Speaker 1: the two of us. But I'm gonna bring in a

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Speaker 1: special guest in just a minute. But you don't even

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Speaker 1: know about But what's going on, Mike?

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Speaker 3: I really hope it's the play by play announcer from

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Speaker 3: the Mississippi Valley State game on Monday Night. There's not

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Speaker 3: a harder working man in sports media. Then we had

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Speaker 3: one announcer, no color guy, no sideline reporter.

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Speaker 4: He did it all.

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Speaker 3: One of the best games I've watched this year. It

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Speaker 3: was nice to see Southern cover that's nine and a half,

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Speaker 3: winning by fourteen.

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Speaker 4: I think his name is Lee Hall.

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Speaker 3: He's this man in mystery difficult to track down on

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Speaker 3: social media, but if you found him, I'm very excited

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Speaker 3: for the remainder of this podcast.

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Speaker 1: The comment section was closed, though the comment.

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Speaker 3: Section was closed, which was a letdown in years past.

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Speaker 3: At least when he goes to Facebook, FAMU is all

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Speaker 3: about the Facebook chat. So maybe we'll have to switch

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Speaker 3: over to the rattlers for next Monday's play.

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Speaker 1: Yep, all right, so we'll miss PJ this week, so

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Speaker 1: I'll tell you it's conference championship weekend. Everyone's still in

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Speaker 1: football mode, so we'll have guests most week. No guests

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Speaker 1: this week as far as covering conferences, will cover most

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Speaker 1: of the Power five and Power six, I should say,

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Speaker 1: and then you know four or five of the other

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Speaker 1: been majors. We talked with PJ last week about the

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Speaker 1: Mountain West. We're gonna have ran of the week. We'll

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Speaker 1: talk anything we'd like for Friday, and then we'll go

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Speaker 1: through Saturday's card as always, but we're also first were

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Speaker 1: gonna start with and then something we've learned from this week.

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Speaker 1: But first we're gonna start with our futures talk because

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna bring him and need we need three to

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Speaker 1: do this, So I'm going to bring in mister Jim

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Speaker 1: Route from the Three Man Weave and to make it

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Speaker 1: a true he's used to rolling with three so we

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Speaker 1: need a three man weave of around here to do

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Speaker 1: our future segments. So Jim graciously has accepted the invite. Mister,

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Speaker 1: there's still a mystery. We're mid record now. There's still

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Speaker 1: a mystery of who sent me the three Men Weave shirt.

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Speaker 1: We have not cracked the case of the Three Men

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Speaker 1: Weave with the big X through it. I don't know

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Speaker 1: what's gonna come of that, but I'm glad to see

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Speaker 1: that you're still alive and I've seen the other two,

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Speaker 1: so we don't have a murder mystery on our on

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Speaker 1: our hands just yet.

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Speaker 5: But I'm glad you weren't. Sweet, I'm glad you didn't

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Speaker 5: buy into that position, that stance of hating the Three

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Speaker 5: Men Weave. I couldn't imagine having to have coworkers that

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Speaker 5: are that much of haters and that would be heartbreaking.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll see. Maybe there's like another thing that's gonna come.

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Speaker 1: Maybe it's like a there's just there's more to this

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Speaker 1: and that was the first one. But exciting times for you.

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Speaker 1: Missouri's like in the mix, right, it's been been a

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Speaker 1: while for it's been a while since, uh, you know

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Speaker 1: Ricky Paulding days when you guys are really relevant.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, there's a weird sense going around the fan base

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Speaker 5: if it had a hard time figuring out what it is.

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Speaker 5: But it's I think I have to call it optimism.

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Speaker 5: Sometimes late in games, we actually have faith that there's

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Speaker 5: going to be a basket scored, which has been a

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Speaker 5: long time coming. After Kwanso, Kwanza Martin and Kim Anderson,

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Speaker 5: those offenses were bleak. Now this team can score. They

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Speaker 5: can't play any defense, but it's nice to cheer for

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Speaker 5: your alma mater and have a little bit of hope.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it is, Ah, it's an electric offense. Obviously you need.

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Speaker 1: We saw how important Kobe Brown is. I think he

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Speaker 1: was just held out for a carouse of the reasons.

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Speaker 1: Came back and that there's a different team with him

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Speaker 1: and on the court, and yeah, they have firepower. Man,

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Speaker 1: They're They're an exciting team to watch and the home

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Speaker 1: crowds are great this year and I think that with

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Speaker 1: Dennis Gates, They're only going to keep going like this.

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Speaker 1: But we brought you in for our future segment. Each

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Speaker 1: Friday episode, we have myself, BJ Mike pick one future,

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Speaker 1: make the case for it, and then everyone votes for

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Speaker 1: the one that we are going to add. You obviously

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Speaker 1: can't vote on your own, and since we don't have

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Speaker 1: any good way of determining if there's like a tie,

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Speaker 1: I'm just I just pulled this in yardy card and

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Speaker 1: picked the one I want, which usually ends up being

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Speaker 1: my own. But Jim, since you are the guest of honor,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna let you go first and present which future

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Speaker 1: you think that we end or the listeners should consider.

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Speaker 5: All right, I hope it is within the rules to

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Speaker 5: go conference title and not just final four slash national championship. Sure,

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Speaker 5: but I selected VCU plus one fifty to win the

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Speaker 5: A ten. I believe it is available at a couple

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Speaker 5: different books. I just think this is great value. They're

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Speaker 5: minus one sixty I think in another book they're currently

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Speaker 5: in first, seven to one half game up on Saint Louis.

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Speaker 5: They're two games up on the lost column on Dayton,

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Speaker 5: who is even with them in the odds. I'm looking

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Speaker 5: at plus one point fifty here, and they've already beaten Dayton.

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Speaker 5: At Dayton. They play Dayton at home still and they're

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Speaker 5: now almost the highest rated team in Kenpom. They're close,

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Speaker 5: they're nine spots behind Dayton, but I think with the

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Speaker 5: way Dayton's trending now that Malachai Smith is back, there's

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Speaker 5: a little bit of diciness there. Saint louis the other

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Speaker 5: prime contender at the top, but they lost Fred Thatch

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Speaker 5: to Attorney cl They're still kind of figuring out how

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Speaker 5: to write the ship there. That's the one catch here.

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Speaker 5: VC does play Slew twice, but obviously get them home

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Speaker 5: and away and Slew is tied in the lost column.

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Speaker 5: I just like the value here with the win over

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Speaker 5: Dayton already getting them one more time back home and

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Speaker 5: kind of the turbulence that Slew is going through right now.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think a couple questions that I have because

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Speaker 1: I would agree with you. I think that VCU is

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Speaker 1: the best team and they didn't have bald Like if

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Speaker 1: you look at their numbers with and without Ace Baldwin,

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Speaker 1: who's one of the most underrated and underappreciated guards in

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Speaker 1: the country. In my opinion, it's a different team with him.

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Speaker 1: They're trending up and you know they have a the

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Speaker 1: one thing that would worry me about VCU is they're

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Speaker 1: shooting like they're shooting forty five percent in a ten play.

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Speaker 1: Now they're holding teams to like twenty nine, which is

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Speaker 1: more sustainable with the with their defense and their length.

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Speaker 1: I don't think they're going to keep shooting forty five percent.

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Speaker 1: But then again, I look at the rest of the

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Speaker 1: A ten and this is early to that maybe you

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Speaker 1: gonna go back to their temple A ten Like this

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Speaker 1: is the worst A ten I think I've ever seen.

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Speaker 1: Like there's no there's no true dumpster fire. Was talking

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Speaker 1: with Hasimetrics about this this morning. There's no true dumpster

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Speaker 1: fire like a Fordam which is like, you know, three

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Speaker 1: hundred and twentieth, which we've seen in some years. But

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Speaker 1: the top of this conf the top of this league,

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Speaker 1: I think is the worst it's ever been. And the

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Speaker 1: only question that I would have, and you kind of

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Speaker 1: touched on it, is who the fuck is Dayton, Like

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Speaker 1: I don't, I don't know. I can't figure out Dayton

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Speaker 1: and Illinois. Like Dayton has this, you know, early in

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Speaker 1: the year, their guards who were really experienced were playing awful.

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Speaker 1: They all they all get hurt. They kind of reconfigure

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Speaker 1: their offense and play with basically five forwards. O. The

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Speaker 1: front court's really good. And they lost that VC game

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Speaker 1: because they didn't have guards to end down the ball

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Speaker 1: at the end. But now they're you know, their guards, Malchoi,

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Speaker 1: Smith comes back, and then they lose the GW, they

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Speaker 1: lose the Rhode Island and it's just a mess. Like

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Speaker 1: so my only fear would be, like this Dayton with

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Speaker 1: their front court, does do they ever figure it out?

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Speaker 1: And like a how like with their guards now healthy,

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Speaker 1: and that would be my only question. But have you

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Speaker 1: been able to figure out Dayton? Because I cannot not

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Speaker 1: at all.

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Speaker 5: And I don't know if Dayton's figured out Dayton because

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Speaker 5: they've had I think one game where everybody was healthy.

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Speaker 5: They finally got Smith and Elvis back, and then Blakeney

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Speaker 5: was out this past game against Rhode Island. It's been

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Speaker 5: a mess, just kind of a rotating cast of characters

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Speaker 5: in the back court.

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Speaker 1: The I do have some.

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Speaker 5: Concern that Dayton straightens out and figures out the gets

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Speaker 5: back to the level a word to start league play.

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Speaker 5: But I like that VCU already has two games up

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Speaker 5: on them, lost column and.

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Speaker 1: Head to head on the run.

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Speaker 5: That's enough that Yeah, I'm hoping that's enough that Danes

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Speaker 5: kind of it might be too late for them to

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Speaker 5: figure it out and catch VCU at this point.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, some very disappointing teams in the A ten

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Speaker 1: this year. I mean, and also Richmond, who's been much

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Speaker 1: better at home than the road. They're soft, I mean

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Speaker 1: the VCU one at Richmond already too. Yeah, just I

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Speaker 1: mean Liutla Chicago has been an absolute mess. Just the

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Speaker 1: the A ten in general, Saint Louis has been disappointing

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Speaker 1: compared to expectations. As you mentioned, they lost that, so yeah,

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Speaker 1: I don't I don't hate this one at all, Mike.

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Speaker 1: Any thoughts you have on the A ten and which

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Speaker 1: is A one? Which is a one? Big league? Right

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Speaker 1: as of now, there is zero chance this is more

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Speaker 1: than one. I mean VCU could potentially, I think play

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Speaker 1: themselves in, like if they got to the A ten

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Speaker 1: final and they stay hot, right, maybe they get they

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Speaker 1: get they get in, But this is looking like a

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Speaker 1: one bit A ten. Do you have any thoughts there?

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Speaker 1: And then what do you bring to the table?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree on the A ten kind of being

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Speaker 3: a mess this year as a Saint Joe's fan. The

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Speaker 3: fact that they probably should have got their fourth win

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Speaker 3: in a row last night, I think is indicative of

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Speaker 3: how soft the middle is in the A ten. At

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Speaker 3: this point, you know you could play your way into

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Speaker 3: that four or five slot when you're Saint Joe's, and

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Speaker 3: I still don't think they have the consistency or overall

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Speaker 3: quality to do. So, it's just the overall quality in

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Speaker 3: the league. I'm gonna go with the National Championship pick here.

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Speaker 3: I'm surprised that it's still hanging out in the market.

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Speaker 3: Mind the Hurricanes.

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Speaker 4: I mean, at this point they've lost two games.

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Speaker 3: This year by two points. They got quality wins over Uva,

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Speaker 3: NC State, Providence and Syracuse, and then when you look

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Speaker 3: at the rest of their path, the ACC I don't

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Speaker 3: think is getting enough heat for just kind of being

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Speaker 3: a mini dumpster fire of its own. The only ranked

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Speaker 3: team they play the rest of the way is at Clemson,

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Speaker 3: and I do think they're going to be in the

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Speaker 3: in the game with an opportunity to leap frog both

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Speaker 3: Virginia and Clemson at the top of the ACC standings.

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Speaker 3: As it stands right now, Bracket Matrix has them as

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Speaker 3: about a five seed. If they can play their way

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Speaker 3: into the four three line. At eighty to one, I

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Speaker 3: think the value is too.

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Speaker 4: Good to pass up.

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Speaker 3: I love Wong and Omeir, you know, the inside outside game,

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Speaker 3: so I think it won't require a multitude of things

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Speaker 3: to go right for them to win the ACC regular

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Speaker 3: season title. And I think they have the game to play,

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Speaker 3: you know, three quality opponents in a row and win

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Speaker 3: the ACC tournament. So with that being said, at eighty

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Speaker 3: to one, I think it's too much value to pass up,

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Speaker 3: and they are able to upset Clemson, I do think

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Speaker 3: there's going to be kind of a market corerection, correction

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Speaker 3: probably into the forty or fifty to one range. So

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Speaker 3: this is probably the last time you're going to get

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Speaker 3: a good number on the Canes.

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Speaker 1: By the way, before touch on Miami to bring your

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Speaker 1: Saint jose Fan to me mentioned Temple back in the

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Speaker 1: eight ten days to ring that full circle yet, and

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Speaker 1: you want to feel old like me, Lynn Greer is

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Speaker 1: now the point guard for Saint Joe's and I remember

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Speaker 1: Lend Gray was awesome at Temple as the point guard

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Speaker 1: back in the early two thousands. But Jim, let me

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Speaker 1: throw it to you. ACC Miami, their ceiling. I mean

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Speaker 1: my initial thoughts are like, if you think this year,

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Speaker 1: and I've talk about this a lot, I think that

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Speaker 1: there's there's clearly no elite team. Maybe Alabama gets there,

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Speaker 1: but there's not a team where you know two or

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Speaker 1: three teams who are like it's going to be them

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Speaker 1: and that ends up being them or in the final four.

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Speaker 1: I think this year, if there's fifteen to twenty teams,

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Speaker 1: the styles are going to make fights. It's going to

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Speaker 1: come on the matchups three point two. But if you're

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Speaker 1: one of like the fifteen to twenty best teams in

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Speaker 1: the country, you're gonna have a shot to get to

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Speaker 1: the final four. And then I don't think anyone's going

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Speaker 1: to be like completely overmatched. So the question is do

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Speaker 1: you think Miami has that ceiling and is there value

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Speaker 1: in this number? Give any thoughts in the Canes.

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Speaker 5: I like the ceiling, especially in postseason play that kind

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Speaker 5: of mirror another team I like that's much higher in

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Speaker 5: the odds or lower much worse odds, I guess in Baylor,

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Speaker 5: and it's like an elite offense with awesome guards and

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Speaker 5: maybe a vulnerable defense. But Miami's been much better in

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Speaker 5: two point percentage of defense than Baylor has. Omeirs kind

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Speaker 5: of helped take care of that. They're not tall, but

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Speaker 5: he's really bulky and athletic. Gives them something in there.

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Speaker 5: We saw the backcourt going a run last year, a

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Speaker 5: team that also struggled defensively. I just I wonder like

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Speaker 5: we punch holes in Purdue a lot last year because

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Speaker 5: of their defense. And I've been trying to sell myself

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Speaker 5: on Baylor this year, but then the defense stuff comes

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Speaker 5: back up, and I was railing against it.

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Speaker 1: Last year's produced.

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Speaker 5: So I have some concerns with rebounding and interior defense

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Speaker 5: as they get deeper into the tournament. But you've got

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Speaker 5: multiple guys that can create their own shot. Jordan Miller

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Speaker 5: might be like one of the best role players in

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Speaker 5: the entire country. Pack has been an infernal.

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Speaker 1: Lately, so I buy it.

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Speaker 5: I really like guard playing the postseason, and Miami's got

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Speaker 5: that in spades.

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Speaker 1: All right, I'm gonna go with mine and screw waiting,

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Speaker 1: screw the price. This is my only preseason future. My horse,

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Speaker 1: the team I said is gonna win it all. From

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Speaker 1: last April when I was sending tweets to Jim about

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Speaker 1: buying more futures and that's TCU you can get. There's

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Speaker 1: fifty to one out there, and I just don't see

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Speaker 1: it going Look, I mean we were like maybe they

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Speaker 1: lose to Kansas and then maybe it goes I just

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Speaker 1: don't see it going much lower. The defense is there,

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Speaker 1: the athleticism is there, the transition they it doesn't matter

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Speaker 1: who they play, like look at they did the Oklahoma

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Speaker 1: doesn't let anyone get in transition in it as a snail.

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Speaker 1: They're just gonna find ways to get out in transition

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Speaker 1: and attack. They're also not to three point reliant, which

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Speaker 1: I love in the turn like they have great guards

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Speaker 1: who could take over, which you need, like Miles can

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Speaker 1: take over is the best in the country. And transition

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Speaker 1: but he can get you that big shot and they're

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Speaker 1: just gonna crush the offensive lass like their three point

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Speaker 1: percentage is not as important as other teams because they're

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Speaker 1: gonna grab every single offensive rebound With Lampey when he

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Speaker 1: in the company, well coached, experienced athletic, they can defend.

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Speaker 1: And I think this team's making it. I mean, I

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Speaker 1: said they're gonna win at all, So I want to get

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Speaker 1: them into our portfolio. So I'm going TCU fifty to one. Jim,

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Speaker 1: I know, well, let's vote first. So everyone's just gonna

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Speaker 1: hold up one finger for VCU A ten two and

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Speaker 1: you can't vote for your own two fingers for Miami,

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Speaker 1: three for TCU. All right, on the count on three

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Speaker 1: to one, go all right, we're going with TCU.

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Speaker 5: This is why you brought me on. I know you

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Speaker 5: brought me on to vote for TCU.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, So Jim Sherry thoughts on ts your

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Speaker 1: love for TCU, so it's not just me on this

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Speaker 1: podcast every week clamoring for a while. I love the Frogs.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean you mentioned the fact that they defend,

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Speaker 5: but also I lead the country in fast breakpoints. I

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Speaker 5: do have some concern about team's reliant on transition in

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Speaker 5: the tournament.

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Speaker 1: I think it's more of a half court style.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, Arizona and Gazaggeran into that last year after dominating

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Speaker 5: in the open floor. But they do have guards that

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Speaker 5: can take over, and I think that's rather relevant and

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Speaker 5: the price you're getting at fifty to one, Like if

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Speaker 5: you take out those first three by games that they

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Speaker 5: played and were totally underperforming, didn't have boy yet you

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Speaker 5: filter Bart Torvik for that they're fourth in the con

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Speaker 5: fourth you're getting you could call them a top five team.

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Speaker 5: I know those games matter in air quotes, but they

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Speaker 5: don't really because it wasn't the full team. We've seen

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Speaker 5: them look way better since then. You get a top

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Speaker 5: five team at fifty to one, I don't hate that,

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Speaker 5: And they could really get up into a high seed

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Speaker 5: ceiling because the Big twelve just has win opportunity after

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Speaker 5: win opportunity.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I uh, there's like and look, Lampkin's gonna be fine.

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Speaker 1: That was a concern of mine. You've had Mike ah

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Speaker 1: Peete who's been heard and he just returned an X

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Speaker 1: factor here like which could even increase their ceiling anymore

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Speaker 1: as wells. I mean, we saw his game against Kansas.

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Speaker 1: If he can play like that on a more consistent basis, man,

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Speaker 1: they become super dangerous. Like yes, the half court stuff

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Speaker 1: that it does bother me a little bit because they

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Speaker 1: are just so great in transition, so their offensive numbers

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Speaker 1: are booed by that. But and you know they their

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Speaker 1: weakness is three point shooting. But like I said, like

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Speaker 1: they could in a half court fight, They're just going

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Speaker 1: to battle you on the boards and then bull you

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Speaker 1: just athletically. It's very like I think that their floor

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Speaker 1: is so low, Like it's a team that I don't

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Speaker 1: think can get upset early. And then you have a

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Speaker 1: guy like Miles you can take over and they're so

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Speaker 1: well coached, but they have that guy at the end

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Speaker 1: of games, it's like, all right, you need a bucket.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna get the bucket. And if I missed the bucket,

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Speaker 1: someone's probably gonna grab it and put it back for

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Speaker 1: it easy too. So TCU, Mike, any thoughts you want

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Speaker 1: to add on the oorn Froest who I do have

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Speaker 1: as a top power right as a top five team

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Speaker 1: right now?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with your assessment about three point shooting.

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Speaker 3: That's the thing that concerns me the most with some

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Speaker 3: of the teams that are at the top of the

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Speaker 3: EPP pole right now. You saw Alabama this week ans

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Speaker 3: Mississippi State. They're started shot one for sixteen from three.

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Speaker 3: So they were lucky they were playing one of the

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Speaker 3: worst teams in the SEC, because if they were playing

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Speaker 3: a Mazoo or they were playing somebody kind of in

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Speaker 3: the middle trying to work their way up the ladder,

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Speaker 3: they would have lost. So that I still have that

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Speaker 3: concern with teams like Alabama, Whereas to your point, it's

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Speaker 3: just a bonus if some of the three start falling

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Speaker 3: for TCU and I am getting a little bit more

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Speaker 3: comfortable with their half court game. It's certainly not a strength,

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Speaker 3: but I don't think it's enough of a weakness to

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Speaker 3: talk me off of them, particularly at fifty to one,

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Speaker 3: because you look around the market, there's some places hanging

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Speaker 3: seventeen twenty to one on this team, So there's huge

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Speaker 3: disparity between the books.

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Speaker 4: So I think it's time to pounce.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I would go down to like thirty five, forty ish.

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Speaker 1: I mean I have some seventy five and eighty from

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Speaker 1: before the season, but I think that they're at top

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Speaker 1: five team certainly capable of winning it all. I actually

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Speaker 1: think that it's interesting you mentioned that Alabama game. I mean,

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Speaker 1: Alabama also went five of twenty eight from three and

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Speaker 1: won the game. And then if you go back, so

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Speaker 1: I think it was like another notch for Alabama. Like,

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Speaker 1: obviously you're gonna have like three or four games a

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Speaker 1: year where you just are bad, right and you just

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Speaker 1: aren't great, and they've won a ton in a row.

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Speaker 1: You kind of get fat and happy. But you go

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Speaker 1: back to that Houston game which we talked about, Alabama

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Speaker 1: was just seven of twenty three. They also missed twelve

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Speaker 1: three throws still one at Houston. So like they're proving

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Speaker 1: that this isn't a team that's just we chuck up

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Speaker 1: forty threes. If we make them, we're gonna beat anybody.

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Speaker 1: If we miss them, we can't beat anybody. Just that.

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Speaker 1: I think that all these wins at Alabama continues to

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Speaker 1: rack up on the road or when they don't play

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Speaker 1: well against elite teams on the road, they're becoming that

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Speaker 1: team that you can trust. Now they might be overvalued

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Speaker 1: from a pointspread perspective over the next few games, but

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Speaker 1: as far as like trusting them come March, they're right

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Speaker 1: up there. All right, Jim, we've taken up enough of

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Speaker 1: your time. I did want to just see you, but

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Speaker 1: I knew also that you would probably go for TCU,

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Speaker 1: so I appreciate you obliging. But thanks for joining us, brother,

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Speaker 1: and I'll see you soon for Big Bets on Campus Live,

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Speaker 1: which will be Saturday mornings.

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Speaker 5: Yes, sir, happy to stop then, Thanks for having me, Mike,

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Speaker 5: Thanks for having me stuck.

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Speaker 1: Have a going good luck. All right, good stuff there

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Speaker 1: for our futures Friday. So we got TCU and Yukon

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Speaker 1: as our current futures portfolio, which I love. All Right,

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Speaker 1: let's let's talk what we've learned from the week that was.

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Speaker 1: I'll kick things all. I'm gonna go a little. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna go first run of the week. I hope sometimes

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Speaker 1: you feel like they come in stretches for college basketball.

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Speaker 1: I hope I'm not starting one now. I haven't had

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Speaker 1: a bad streak of like bad beats have been lucky

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Speaker 1: knock on wood and pray to the regression gods for

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Speaker 1: since football started. So maybe I'm overdue. But last night

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Speaker 1: watching within like a ten minute stretch, I had UCF

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Speaker 1: plus ten and plus ten and a half. They lose Hendrix, who,

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Speaker 1: by the way, is a stud. He might be their

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Speaker 1: best player on both sides of the ball already. They

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Speaker 1: lose him to a fourth foul sixteen to go when

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Speaker 1: Houston basically just runs into him. Awful call. Dawkins gets

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Speaker 1: teed up as he should have. Terrible call changes the

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Speaker 1: whole game. Dawkins is needed in that game. Excuse me,

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Speaker 1: Hendricks was needed in that game. Then Lake, there's a

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Speaker 1: flagrant late and Houston's up eleven and UCF missus h

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Speaker 1: got three shots a bunny and it was brutal. And

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Speaker 1: then I have Stamford time plus four and a half,

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Speaker 1: plus four and a half, and they're leading most of

432
00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:53,400
Speaker 1: the second half, even though they're in ridiculous foul trouble

433
00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:54,919
Speaker 1: the whole game. Two of their best players found the

434
00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:57,840
Speaker 1: first minute overtime, Furman hits a contested three to force

435
00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:01,840
Speaker 1: overtime to cover was basically never in doubt until it

436
00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:05,399
Speaker 1: got to overtime. Then there's thirty seconds left, Sanford's at

437
00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:07,640
Speaker 1: the line, down one, shooting three free throws, make one

438
00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:10,600
Speaker 1: of three. Furman comes down, hits a long three to

439
00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:15,400
Speaker 1: go up three, miss foul, miss foul, and seven. Brutal.

440
00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:18,919
Speaker 1: So just you got to move on. College basketball is

441
00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:21,520
Speaker 1: like that. Sometimes you're gonna have stretches where those happen

442
00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:24,520
Speaker 1: a lot. You just have to withstand them, don't chase

443
00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:27,600
Speaker 1: all that stuff. But my biggest takeaway from week is

444
00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:30,760
Speaker 1: I think Sanford is clearly the best team in the

445
00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:35,600
Speaker 1: SoCon and they got Quiz Glover back recently who's only

446
00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:39,240
Speaker 1: gonna get better, and Furman. Just look they have is

447
00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:40,800
Speaker 1: that team ever gonna make the tournament. I would have

448
00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:42,719
Speaker 1: said before the year, Firman's making the tournament with bothwell

449
00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:45,080
Speaker 1: and slows, and they've come so close for so many years.

450
00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:48,080
Speaker 1: But there's something still missing from that team. I think

451
00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:51,240
Speaker 1: that they're just a little too soft. And give me

452
00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:55,000
Speaker 1: Sanford in a rematch if they meet in the tournament.

453
00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:57,760
Speaker 1: And then I also have to mention, I mean Sanford

454
00:20:57,800 --> 00:20:59,600
Speaker 1: just has guys that could score, that can shoot, and

455
00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:01,199
Speaker 1: they're well coach as well, and they got they have

456
00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:05,320
Speaker 1: good depth. I also should mention Chattanooga who won it

457
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:08,160
Speaker 1: last year, who will uh hit that half court shot

458
00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:13,280
Speaker 1: to devastate Furman. They're done, They're done. Uh, they lost

459
00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:18,840
Speaker 1: Jake Stevens, They're they're uh twit. Yeah, the vm I

460
00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:22,040
Speaker 1: who's everything to them. He's also shooting forty two from three,

461
00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:26,600
Speaker 1: and they lost him. And since I mean they lost

462
00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:29,640
Speaker 1: to East Tennessee State. Who's the weirdest team in the world.

463
00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:32,160
Speaker 1: East Tennessee State is they lost an overtime the mercer

464
00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:35,159
Speaker 1: last night. But they're oh and eight at home and

465
00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:38,320
Speaker 1: like somehow and like they're decent on the it's East

466
00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:41,399
Speaker 1: Tennessee State. It's a bizarre team. But they lost the

467
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:44,359
Speaker 1: East Tennessee State by sixteen, they were double digit favorites.

468
00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:48,000
Speaker 1: Then they lost to Wofford, to Wafford last, uh the

469
00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:50,879
Speaker 1: Wafford last yesterday. That they're just a different team without Stevens.

470
00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:53,920
Speaker 1: They're gonna miss him a bad. So when I look

471
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:59,040
Speaker 1: at the SoCon coming up here, look, Greensboro is a

472
00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:02,880
Speaker 1: tough team. They're they're gonna just they're gonna make it

473
00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:06,560
Speaker 1: difficult no matter who they play. But when I look

474
00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:10,199
Speaker 1: through it's a pretty down year across the SoCon and

475
00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:12,080
Speaker 1: I think at the end of the day, Stanford is

476
00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:15,520
Speaker 1: gonna come out victorious and into March and they'll be

477
00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:18,399
Speaker 1: a really fun team to watch. Logan Dies, extremely underrated,

478
00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:21,520
Speaker 1: Jermaine Marshall, and you know they have Bubba paramitc Guard,

479
00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:23,800
Speaker 1: just a deep team, a lot of talented shot makers.

480
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:28,280
Speaker 1: And then I think that the X factor is of

481
00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:33,479
Speaker 1: course Qus Glover, who he missed for those are familiar him,

482
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:35,360
Speaker 1: he's a transfer from Florida. He missed that I think

483
00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:39,720
Speaker 1: like ten or eleven games recently came back and he's

484
00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:41,960
Speaker 1: only going to get better and he's he's a bucket.

485
00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:44,520
Speaker 1: And so I love Stanford for the SoCon. Keep that

486
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:48,320
Speaker 1: in mind. But we'll be previewing all the conference tournaments obviously.

487
00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 1: So yeah, rant last night was brutal. Then I had

488
00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:52,960
Speaker 1: luckily I had text a and that which was easy.

489
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:54,960
Speaker 1: But two lost. It's probably shot a three and o night,

490
00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:56,760
Speaker 1: or at least two and one, and then you have

491
00:22:56,800 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 1: the three plays in Egal one and two because of those.

492
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:01,560
Speaker 1: But that's how to basketball think of it. It's like

493
00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:03,840
Speaker 1: six months of this that you're gonna have nights weeks

494
00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:06,600
Speaker 1: a month. Sometimes you can have a season like that.

495
00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:09,679
Speaker 1: Move on, let it go, bitch a little bit, and

496
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:12,119
Speaker 1: then forget about it. Mike, you do you have a

497
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:14,440
Speaker 1: rent this week and then anything that you learned from

498
00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:16,040
Speaker 1: the week of college basketball.

499
00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:17,440
Speaker 4: So I have a rant.

500
00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:19,879
Speaker 3: We all do this because there's you know, close to

501
00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:22,440
Speaker 3: three hundred and sixty teams. You can't watch every team,

502
00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:25,960
Speaker 3: so sometimes you're going to third party sources that you

503
00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:29,080
Speaker 3: trust to try to get a feel, you know, a vibe.

504
00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:32,200
Speaker 3: Maybe there's a storyline to Paul got healthier. De Paul

505
00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:33,159
Speaker 3: was right on the cusp.

506
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:33,840
Speaker 4: Here we go.

507
00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:35,760
Speaker 3: I'm going to take him against Georgetown, lay in a

508
00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:38,719
Speaker 3: ton of points. By the way, Georgetown, there's a story

509
00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:41,119
Speaker 3: on ESPN dot com right now. This gives a feel

510
00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:44,119
Speaker 3: for how far the program has fallen, basically giving them

511
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:46,520
Speaker 3: a shout out for winning their first Big East game

512
00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 3: since March second of last year in the regular season.

513
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:52,040
Speaker 3: And when you click on Georgetown's hyperlink, it takes you

514
00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:55,080
Speaker 3: to the women's basketball team. That's how relevant Georgetown's men's

515
00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:56,520
Speaker 3: scoops team is at this point.

516
00:23:56,720 --> 00:23:59,320
Speaker 1: But they beat to Paul out right fornning nine game

517
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:01,680
Speaker 1: bigies lose straight over. Sorry, buddy, I was on George

518
00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:03,080
Speaker 1: some by the way, extend youing.

519
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:06,960
Speaker 4: But oh my lord, forty one three throws, three starters

520
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:08,920
Speaker 4: for De Paul get you know, Yeah, it was great.

521
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:10,480
Speaker 4: Why fowls and kicked in that game?

522
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:12,280
Speaker 1: Thirteen offensive boards.

523
00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:13,639
Speaker 4: Giving up so shame on me.

524
00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:15,320
Speaker 3: I hadn't watched a Paul in like two and a

525
00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:17,280
Speaker 3: half months, so I was like, okay, I'll buy in

526
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:19,760
Speaker 3: on this narrative. Lay the points against the sinking ship

527
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:22,639
Speaker 3: with the lame duck head coach. No, not not so

528
00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:24,919
Speaker 3: much that I had tied up in a few parlays.

529
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 3: So money management was also not my strong suit, and

530
00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:30,400
Speaker 3: in that particular night, I don't know necessarily if it's

531
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:32,040
Speaker 3: a rant against them. I think it's a rant against

532
00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:33,840
Speaker 3: myself where it's like, let's just stick with the teams

533
00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:36,120
Speaker 3: and the conferences. We know that we have a stronger

534
00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:38,320
Speaker 3: feel for and we'll get into that with somewhere plays

535
00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:39,359
Speaker 3: on Friday and Saturday.

536
00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:41,440
Speaker 1: George Town has so much work Town. I mean, they

537
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:43,919
Speaker 1: are poorly coach and they fall apart at the end

538
00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:45,920
Speaker 1: of every game. Luckily there was all of those fal

539
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:48,520
Speaker 1: calls they tried to against They were up by like

540
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:52,200
Speaker 1: twelve with a minute to go and got dicey. But yeah,

541
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:53,919
Speaker 1: there they haven't I mean they have a lot, they

542
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:55,760
Speaker 1: have some talent, Like they haven't played a lot. They

543
00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 1: haven't had a lot of games with both Merry end

544
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:02,159
Speaker 1: Spears in the backcourt. You have Wahab and there's some

545
00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:04,160
Speaker 1: talent on that team. A cook, a cook, he can

546
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:07,240
Speaker 1: he could do some things on the defensive end. But

547
00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:09,640
Speaker 1: they're just poorly coached and they they fall apart, man,

548
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:11,760
Speaker 1: I mean the last eight minutes of games. They are

549
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:16,399
Speaker 1: so bad. But the Paul be interesting. Maybe they'll have

550
00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:20,240
Speaker 1: some value against the Marquette Wagon this weekend because they

551
00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:23,640
Speaker 1: are getting healthier for sure. By the way, I'm looking

552
00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 1: at TCU, what's the best back to the TCU futures,

553
00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 1: I think, I'm I want to. I don't want to.

554
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:31,800
Speaker 1: I want to ride with the people with with Like

555
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:33,760
Speaker 1: the most accessible.

556
00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:36,240
Speaker 3: The most accessible number I'm seeing out there right now

557
00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:39,320
Speaker 3: is forty to one for TCU, which you already mentioned

558
00:25:39,320 --> 00:25:40,760
Speaker 3: you'd play it down to forty to one.

559
00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, let's call it forty to one. Then I'd

560
00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:48,400
Speaker 1: go down like I'm way high on TCU. And these

561
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:51,240
Speaker 1: aren't Like a lot of times with college basketball futures,

562
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:53,240
Speaker 1: you never want to have too much, like especially in

563
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 1: the term that you don't. We don't have too much

564
00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:58,240
Speaker 1: to out invested. And part of it is no one

565
00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:02,159
Speaker 1: that's me. You're not doing this, you're not betting college

566
00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:05,679
Speaker 1: basketball national title features professionally or like part of us

567
00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:09,800
Speaker 1: must be fun. Yeah, and I want TCU in there

568
00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:11,720
Speaker 1: they are and my pick to win it all. So yeah,

569
00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:14,040
Speaker 1: let's look out forty to one, which you can find

570
00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:17,040
Speaker 1: out there. You can find a little better out there

571
00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:21,280
Speaker 1: if you search other places far in line. So just

572
00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:22,919
Speaker 1: throwing that out there. But all right, let's go to

573
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:27,520
Speaker 1: Friday night lights on the hard court. Why let football

574
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:32,000
Speaker 1: have all the fun. Let's bet Friday night lights. Let

575
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:33,440
Speaker 1: me see if we have any lines. I know we're

576
00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:35,200
Speaker 1: recording this at three thirty.

577
00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:37,920
Speaker 4: I can get this started. This linemany there.

578
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:42,360
Speaker 3: Saint Louis laying a point at Davidson Iley the Millicans

579
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:44,399
Speaker 3: a lot in general. They got four starters average and

580
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:47,200
Speaker 3: double digits. I love Uri Collins. He's one of the

581
00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:49,400
Speaker 3: best facilitators in the whole country. And we talk about

582
00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 3: consistency of offensive performance, the fact that he sets them

583
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:53,320
Speaker 3: up so.

584
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:55,560
Speaker 4: Well in the half court. I just have a lot

585
00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:56,159
Speaker 4: of faith in them.

586
00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:57,960
Speaker 3: And then when you look at their performance on the

587
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:00,359
Speaker 3: road this year, five point loss to Auburn, that's a

588
00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:02,560
Speaker 3: quality loss in my opinion. You know, they weren't bullied

589
00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:04,679
Speaker 3: off the court there, and I know that the A

590
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:07,639
Speaker 3: ten we got into it in depth, you know, just

591
00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:10,640
Speaker 3: recently hearing the pod. But they beat George Washington by

592
00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:12,840
Speaker 3: seven George Washington at this point to top three team

593
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:14,439
Speaker 3: in the A ten. They beat them at their place.

594
00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:17,520
Speaker 3: So I'm not afraid of Davidson's home court advantage in

595
00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:20,520
Speaker 3: this one. I think it's fairly priced at essentially a

596
00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:23,080
Speaker 3: pick them. I would play this up to Slew minus three.

597
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:25,280
Speaker 3: So that's my top play for Friday night.

598
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:28,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna go. Let's I'm gonna go with Kent

599
00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:29,200
Speaker 1: State looks.

600
00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:30,560
Speaker 4: Like Yeah, Kent State.

601
00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:32,080
Speaker 1: I liked it. Was there is there a number that

602
00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:35,240
Speaker 1: popped yet minus eleven. I think this is blowout written

603
00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 1: all over. Kent State's coming off a bad, bad loss

604
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:42,399
Speaker 1: at Northern Illinois. They lost by double digits. They were

605
00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:46,320
Speaker 1: laying twelve and a half. Meanwhile, you have Buffalo, who

606
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:50,040
Speaker 1: is coming off an upset win at ball State. They

607
00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:52,879
Speaker 1: were catching five and f one by twenty six. So

608
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 1: a little by low sell high here, and what does

609
00:27:57,160 --> 00:27:59,040
Speaker 1: if you look at what you know and I'm really

610
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:00,479
Speaker 1: high on this Kent State team, I think that they

611
00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:03,480
Speaker 1: just you know, it happens you lay an egg in

612
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:07,679
Speaker 1: conference on the road in a game where you know

613
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 1: Northern Illinois had thirteen of twenty eight from three went

614
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 1: seventeen of twenty from the line. I think you get

615
00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:18,280
Speaker 1: a fully focused effort here from an extremely experienced team.

616
00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:21,760
Speaker 1: And Buffalo, if you look at them, they want to run,

617
00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:23,400
Speaker 1: they want to get out in transition. They think they're

618
00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:27,159
Speaker 1: top ten in tempo. If they can't get out and run,

619
00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:30,720
Speaker 1: you can really slow them down. Kent State excellent excellent

620
00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:34,520
Speaker 1: transition defense in the ninety seven percentile per Synergy, and

621
00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:37,359
Speaker 1: then their half court defense is elite. And if they're

622
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:40,320
Speaker 1: locked in what you would expect at home after a

623
00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:44,960
Speaker 1: bad loss, then this is boom. This is a spot

624
00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 1: where they're going to lock down Buffalo angry Kent State

625
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:51,760
Speaker 1: home performance. So I think this turns into a blowout.

626
00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 1: I'd take this up to minus twelve.

627
00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, that was myleen there as well, So I think

628
00:28:56,760 --> 00:28:59,000
Speaker 3: that's good vibes for us to have those as the

629
00:28:59,040 --> 00:28:59,880
Speaker 3: two picks.

630
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 1: As a reminder before we go any fur other. College

631
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:05,280
Speaker 1: basketball season is in full swing, so get in on

632
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:07,960
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Speaker 1: one one seven for confidential help. In Michigan one eight

647
00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:57,600
Speaker 1: hundred gambler in Indiana, Maryland, New Jersey, or West Virginia

648
00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:00,520
Speaker 1: one eight hundred bets off in Iowa one hundred and

649
00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:02,240
Speaker 1: nine eight one zero zero two three. In Puerto Rico,

650
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:05,640
Speaker 1: call eight seven seven eight hope and Why, or text

651
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:08,000
Speaker 1: hope and Why. In New York, called text the Tennessee

652
00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:10,600
Speaker 1: Redline at twenty hundred eight eight nine nine seven eight

653
00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:12,720
Speaker 1: nine or call one eight eight eight seven seven seven

654
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 1: ninety six ninety six in Mississippi. In Ontario, if you

655
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:17,240
Speaker 1: have questions or concerns about your gambling or someone close

656
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:19,520
Speaker 1: to you, please contact Connects Ontario at one eight six

657
00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:21,440
Speaker 1: six five three one two six zero zero to speak

658
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:23,840
Speaker 1: to an advisor free charge. Sports betting is void in Georgia,

659
00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:26,800
Speaker 1: Hawaii and Utah and other states were prohibited. Promotional offers

660
00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:30,480
Speaker 1: not available in Nevada in New York. All right, good stuff.

661
00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:35,720
Speaker 1: Let's move on to Saturday slate. Obviously, no line's out here,

662
00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 1: but we can project come pretty close to what we

663
00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:42,280
Speaker 1: expect in the v and we'll just talk about a

664
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:51,160
Speaker 1: few of the spots that we have circled SI Saturday Day. Mike,

665
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:53,400
Speaker 1: let me thrack you first, which first game you want

666
00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:53,680
Speaker 1: to mention.

667
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:56,240
Speaker 3: So I'm keeping both of these plays in the top

668
00:30:56,280 --> 00:30:59,480
Speaker 3: twenty five. But a mid major popping here is Charleston

669
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:01,800
Speaker 3: just gonna run the table and the CIA, I don't

670
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:04,400
Speaker 3: think so. And I'm trying to identify a team that

671
00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:07,960
Speaker 3: could potentially knock them off outright. I think Hofster is

672
00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 3: one of those teams that could do at The Flying

673
00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:12,160
Speaker 3: Dutchman are thirty seventh nationally effective field goal percentage.

674
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:13,520
Speaker 4: They don't foul much at all.

675
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:15,800
Speaker 3: And when you will go what Charleston does, Yes, they

676
00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:18,120
Speaker 3: bomb away from three their top ten to three point

677
00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:20,880
Speaker 3: attempts per game. But they're one hundred and ninety seventh

678
00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 3: inaccuracy from three point range, so a lot of what

679
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:25,840
Speaker 3: they do is required on getting to the foul stripe.

680
00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:28,080
Speaker 3: They get fifteen points per game there, so the fact

681
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:30,760
Speaker 3: that Hofster is not going to give that to them willingly,

682
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:34,000
Speaker 3: I think is a big element Their backcourt in general,

683
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:36,880
Speaker 3: with Estrada and Thomas, I think they can both heat

684
00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:39,680
Speaker 3: up in a hurry. And I'm not sure they played

685
00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:42,200
Speaker 3: their best basketball yet, at least in CAAA play. So

686
00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:44,480
Speaker 3: I'm trying to find a by low moment for a

687
00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 3: team that could actually knock off Charleston. This is who

688
00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:50,560
Speaker 3: I've circled really against the spread, anything north of five points,

689
00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:53,440
Speaker 3: I would go ahead and take the pride, and then

690
00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:55,480
Speaker 3: from a money line perspective, anything north of plus one

691
00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:57,960
Speaker 3: seventy five. So I'm gonna try to shoot my shot here,

692
00:31:58,320 --> 00:32:00,800
Speaker 3: get into the upset and move with you know, marching

693
00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:02,960
Speaker 3: out that far down the road. What do you What

694
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:05,280
Speaker 3: are your thoughts on Hofstra at this point in the season,

695
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:08,080
Speaker 3: To me, a little bit a little bit underwhelming. Yes,

696
00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:10,440
Speaker 3: they had a real rough game against Towson about two

697
00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 3: weeks ago where they scored sub fifty, but in general

698
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:14,600
Speaker 3: they've been pretty consistent on the offensive end.

699
00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:17,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean then they crushed UNC Wilmington, which was

700
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:22,440
Speaker 1: really impressive last Thursday. I believe they got Elon tonight,

701
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:24,280
Speaker 1: which is kind of like a trap. Elon is so

702
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:26,920
Speaker 1: bad they should win that game. The problem I have

703
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:29,640
Speaker 1: with Hofstra, I mean, they are and I think it

704
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:32,600
Speaker 1: is a good spot. They don't have a lot of size,

705
00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:35,840
Speaker 1: so they're gonna get crushed on the offensive glass here,

706
00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:37,959
Speaker 1: which is a concern, and they don't have a lot

707
00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:41,040
Speaker 1: of depth. So but the good thing is, as you mentioned,

708
00:32:41,080 --> 00:32:47,040
Speaker 1: they don't foul. Neither does Charleston much. But Charleston is deep.

709
00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:52,200
Speaker 1: And then they play just this, you know, breakneck style

710
00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:54,600
Speaker 1: and they they they come in waves and I think

711
00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:57,200
Speaker 1: that they're they're probably top. I would assume top forty

712
00:32:57,200 --> 00:33:00,680
Speaker 1: and inventionment, it's the top forty in pace. So will

713
00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:05,200
Speaker 1: Hofstra wear down and can they kind of slow it

714
00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 1: down a little bit? But I would tend to agree.

715
00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 1: There's there's a couple concerns matchup wise that I have.

716
00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 1: But you know, part of me, if the team that's

717
00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:17,160
Speaker 1: not deep that plays Charleston, I would worry about them,

718
00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:19,920
Speaker 1: you know, getting in foutro. But Hostra with their defensive style,

719
00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:21,600
Speaker 1: they don't really get in foutro. But I would agree

720
00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:26,360
Speaker 1: I think this is a time probably to sell on Charleston.

721
00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:30,240
Speaker 1: So yeah, I have the Hofstra circled as well.

722
00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:33,480
Speaker 3: On top of that, you look at the comps when

723
00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:36,200
Speaker 3: Charleston's played a top four team in the CIA, they

724
00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:39,000
Speaker 3: beat UNC Wilmington by two, they beat Tewson by two

725
00:33:39,120 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 3: in overtime. So yes, they're one of the best stories

726
00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 3: going in college basketball. Twenty in a row, you know,

727
00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 3: Top twenty and the eight people, all this great stuff.

728
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:49,200
Speaker 3: But they've been they've been flirting with not a disaster,

729
00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:51,040
Speaker 3: but they've been flirting with at least some losses here

730
00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:53,880
Speaker 3: in conference play. So eventually, I do think the hammer

731
00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:56,120
Speaker 3: is going to fall. It's difficult to, you know, have

732
00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:58,480
Speaker 3: such a good record in close games in conference.

733
00:33:58,760 --> 00:34:01,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a it's a Hiaran's team. So like, even

734
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:02,600
Speaker 1: if they haven't all them, they're gonna shoot a lot

735
00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 1: of threes. So but I would agree this is probably

736
00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:07,840
Speaker 1: the right time. I'm gonna go le I'm gonna go

737
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:11,200
Speaker 1: with a theme first, and so I'm gonna make a

738
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:13,600
Speaker 1: I'm gonna make a claim that and this is just

739
00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:16,719
Speaker 1: kind of an overarching thought for Saturday. We had the

740
00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:20,800
Speaker 1: Big Twelve SEC Challenge, and I think the Big Twelve

741
00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:24,520
Speaker 1: is by far the best conference in college basketball top

742
00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:27,160
Speaker 1: to bottom, and I think that some of these bottom

743
00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:30,719
Speaker 1: teams are really hurt by just the depth and just

744
00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 1: the night in and night out, and they're undervalued. So

745
00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:36,080
Speaker 1: a team like Texas Tech oh to eight in the

746
00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:38,839
Speaker 1: Big Twelve, they're going up against LSU, two teams free

747
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:42,560
Speaker 1: falling right. LSU has been I mean, I think that

748
00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:44,600
Speaker 1: if you look at the underlying metrics, Texas Tech has

749
00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:48,960
Speaker 1: been very unlucky in some aspects. They did get you know,

750
00:34:49,000 --> 00:34:52,520
Speaker 1: they have AMC didn't play for Texas Tech last game.

751
00:34:52,680 --> 00:34:54,439
Speaker 1: I think there's a good chance he suits up here.

752
00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:57,080
Speaker 1: But if you look at the underlying metrics on what

753
00:34:57,280 --> 00:34:59,759
Speaker 1: LSU was doing on both ends of the floor, look

754
00:34:59,760 --> 00:35:02,839
Speaker 1: at they're doing nothing well. There is nothing this team

755
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:06,640
Speaker 1: is doing well. And it's just it was so telling

756
00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:09,440
Speaker 1: to me with this LSU team. When they lost they

757
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:12,520
Speaker 1: got embarrassed by Alabama. I mean that's one hundred and

758
00:35:12,560 --> 00:35:15,080
Speaker 1: six to sixty six. Their next game they're at home

759
00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:17,920
Speaker 1: against Auburn team. It's not great on the road. They

760
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:21,319
Speaker 1: lost by eighteen. Okay, let's get we get Tennessee at home,

761
00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:24,360
Speaker 1: they lose by twenty one. Okay, we're at Arkansas. We

762
00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:27,440
Speaker 1: score forty points and lose by twenty.

763
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:30,680
Speaker 3: This team, Yeah, the Arkansas game, to me, that's the

764
00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 3: white flag moment on the season.

765
00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:34,439
Speaker 4: I mean, you can you can talk up these other teams.

766
00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:36,920
Speaker 3: I know that Auburn has some rough home away splits

767
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:39,880
Speaker 3: in Tennessee's obviously a top fifteen team for most of

768
00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 3: the season. But Arkansas just does not have the scoring

769
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:46,279
Speaker 3: punch or really the defensive focus in general to win

770
00:35:46,320 --> 00:35:49,200
Speaker 3: by that match and to hold LSU that low.

771
00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:49,840
Speaker 4: So I agree.

772
00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:52,319
Speaker 3: I think this is a time when, on paper, when

773
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:54,480
Speaker 3: the casual gambler is just looking at the win loss

774
00:35:54,520 --> 00:35:56,719
Speaker 3: record and record and conference play and say, okay, these

775
00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:59,200
Speaker 3: are two dogs. If the big maple suits up for

776
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:01,640
Speaker 3: Texas Tech, I think he could have a big game.

777
00:36:01,680 --> 00:36:03,160
Speaker 4: So that's something to monitor for sure.

778
00:36:03,520 --> 00:36:06,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, and also you just look, I mean, Texas Tech

779
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:09,080
Speaker 1: has not been great, but then this game, I think

780
00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:11,479
Speaker 1: we'll be right around a pick. I would assume maybe

781
00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:14,880
Speaker 1: Texas Tech a small favorite, but from a matchup perspective,

782
00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 1: Texas Tech can force you into a lot of turnovers

783
00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:21,479
Speaker 1: which LSU will give you freely willingly. And I also

784
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:23,480
Speaker 1: think that they'll dominant on the offensive glass, which you

785
00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:27,040
Speaker 1: could which you could do against LSU as well. Coaching mismatch.

786
00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:29,000
Speaker 1: And yeah, I think Texas Tech's gonna be undervalued here

787
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:30,839
Speaker 1: going out of conference. So when you look at these

788
00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:33,640
Speaker 1: the bottom of the Big twelve versus the bottom of

789
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:36,880
Speaker 1: the SEC. So I'm going to go Texas Tech and

790
00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:39,839
Speaker 1: then I'll touch on a couple other of the big

791
00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 1: twelve SEC teams in a SEC, but I'll give you

792
00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:42,480
Speaker 1: a chance to jump in.

793
00:36:42,760 --> 00:36:46,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's just stick with this big twelve sec challenge.

794
00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:49,600
Speaker 3: As a team you're probably not familiar with Texas Christian.

795
00:36:50,239 --> 00:36:55,440
Speaker 3: They're laying twelve here in Mississippi State and beyond you

796
00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:57,320
Speaker 3: know the metrics being in love with the horn Frogs.

797
00:36:57,320 --> 00:36:59,040
Speaker 3: They're also just a great road team. They're four and

798
00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:01,360
Speaker 3: one against the closing number on the road, covering by

799
00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:03,719
Speaker 3: an average eight points per game. They're up to tenth

800
00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:06,759
Speaker 3: and Ken Palm's adjusted defensive metric, And I think there's

801
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:10,320
Speaker 3: a little bit of the market maybe over correcting on

802
00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:13,239
Speaker 3: Mississippi State getting Bama a good game. As I said it,

803
00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:15,719
Speaker 3: wasn't that, you know, they were closing out and suffocating

804
00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:18,560
Speaker 3: on the perimeters that Bama's three pointers just didn't fall.

805
00:37:18,880 --> 00:37:21,319
Speaker 3: So they end up blowing a seven point halftime lead

806
00:37:21,520 --> 00:37:24,520
Speaker 3: and losing out right but covering. I think Missippi State

807
00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:26,960
Speaker 3: is a dog, no pun intended, and I think TCU

808
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:29,759
Speaker 3: is gonna absolutely wipe the floor with them in this game.

809
00:37:29,800 --> 00:37:31,719
Speaker 3: They're gonna get into their running game and just run

810
00:37:31,760 --> 00:37:33,120
Speaker 3: them out of the arena.

811
00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:35,680
Speaker 4: So I don't mind lane twelve in the spot. I'd

812
00:37:35,680 --> 00:37:36,760
Speaker 4: probably go up to fifteen.

813
00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 3: TCU in general, I think is just you know, multiple

814
00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:42,279
Speaker 3: levels of class better than Mississippi State.

815
00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:47,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, Mississippi State, they are pretty good in transition defense,

816
00:37:47,239 --> 00:37:50,120
Speaker 1: but they're better in the half court and they actually

817
00:37:50,120 --> 00:37:53,239
Speaker 1: do let you get out into transition. So I don't

818
00:37:53,280 --> 00:37:57,080
Speaker 1: care who you are, you're not defending TCU in transition

819
00:37:57,200 --> 00:37:58,840
Speaker 1: like you're just not. They're just that they're an NBA

820
00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:01,480
Speaker 1: team in trend position with the way that they can score.

821
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:05,759
Speaker 1: Let's stick with again with this theme, I'm gonna go

822
00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:10,719
Speaker 1: let's go with West Virginia against Auburn. So I think

823
00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:13,240
Speaker 1: West Virginia a huge two desperate teams at West Virginia

824
00:38:13,280 --> 00:38:16,719
Speaker 1: Texas Tech game, West Virginia picks up the win on

825
00:38:17,239 --> 00:38:19,000
Speaker 1: the road, and I think that they're look there, what

826
00:38:19,040 --> 00:38:21,200
Speaker 1: are they two and six in the Big twelve? It's crazy.

827
00:38:21,239 --> 00:38:22,480
Speaker 1: I think they're up there in the top twenty in

828
00:38:22,560 --> 00:38:24,799
Speaker 1: KEMPOM now a team that's been close in a lot

829
00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:26,640
Speaker 1: of games that hasn't come out. But I think that

830
00:38:26,640 --> 00:38:30,759
Speaker 1: that win can really start a run for them. And

831
00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:34,200
Speaker 1: this Auburn team, I still don't trust their They're very

832
00:38:34,239 --> 00:38:36,920
Speaker 1: erratically and they lost in the jungle last night, but

833
00:38:37,000 --> 00:38:39,239
Speaker 1: I still don't trust their guards on the road. And

834
00:38:39,280 --> 00:38:40,960
Speaker 1: if you look one of the reasons I love Texas

835
00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:42,600
Speaker 1: A and M last night. All right, if you look

836
00:38:42,640 --> 00:38:46,200
Speaker 1: at Auburn, what can they not do right or what

837
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:48,879
Speaker 1: do they struggle with? They let you get a ton

838
00:38:49,520 --> 00:38:51,960
Speaker 1: of offensive rebounds, so they're bad on the defensive glass.

839
00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:56,439
Speaker 1: What else do they do? They foul lot, and they

840
00:38:56,480 --> 00:38:59,520
Speaker 1: turn the ball over too much with their erratic guards

841
00:39:00,120 --> 00:39:01,359
Speaker 1: are like the th and then they take they also

842
00:39:01,400 --> 00:39:03,319
Speaker 1: take poor shots, especially on the road, but those are

843
00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:05,680
Speaker 1: the three things. They'll turn the ball over, they'll let

844
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:08,319
Speaker 1: you get offensive rebounds, and then they fail too much.

845
00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:11,120
Speaker 1: All right, And text A and m can do all

846
00:39:11,160 --> 00:39:15,080
Speaker 1: those things well. West Virginia number eleven in free throw

847
00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:16,960
Speaker 1: attempts per field goal attempt, they get to the line

848
00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:21,120
Speaker 1: of ton, number twenty two in offensive rebounding, and their

849
00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:24,360
Speaker 1: top forty team enforcing turnovers. Those are the three primary

850
00:39:24,400 --> 00:39:27,279
Speaker 1: strengths of West Virginia at home with one of the

851
00:39:27,320 --> 00:39:30,680
Speaker 1: best home court advantages. So yeah, I think this is

852
00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:34,400
Speaker 1: a good spot to back the Mountaineers and it's just

853
00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:38,080
Speaker 1: a great matchup for them, similar to Texas A and M.

854
00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:42,080
Speaker 1: And I'm going to trust the Ears here at home

855
00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:43,279
Speaker 1: in Morgantown. What do you got?

856
00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:45,200
Speaker 3: Well, my last one, I have a question for you

857
00:39:45,280 --> 00:39:48,080
Speaker 3: in your backyard. What are your thoughts on Kansas Kentucky?

858
00:39:48,320 --> 00:39:50,680
Speaker 3: Two teams that really need this win. This could be

859
00:39:51,160 --> 00:39:54,920
Speaker 3: kind of a defining season win for the Wildcats, potentially

860
00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:58,440
Speaker 3: turn things around in terms of their upside. Whereas Kansas,

861
00:39:58,800 --> 00:40:01,040
Speaker 3: they played hard in the final minutes against Baylor, but

862
00:40:01,040 --> 00:40:03,800
Speaker 3: I think overall disappointment in a game that I thought,

863
00:40:04,120 --> 00:40:06,040
Speaker 3: you know, if Grady Dick had played well, that they

864
00:40:06,040 --> 00:40:08,839
Speaker 3: were gonna win out right, he did, just everybody else

865
00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:10,680
Speaker 3: kind of you know, fell on their sword. They couldn't

866
00:40:10,680 --> 00:40:13,120
Speaker 3: figure out how to score from the perimeter. They had

867
00:40:13,120 --> 00:40:16,200
Speaker 3: some weird turnovers. So I'm a little bit concerned at

868
00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:18,960
Speaker 3: this point when Jalen Wilson's playing at the level he's

869
00:40:19,000 --> 00:40:21,040
Speaker 3: playing at and Grady Dick comes to play, and there's

870
00:40:21,040 --> 00:40:24,480
Speaker 3: still losing games to quality opponents. So I'm just interested

871
00:40:24,480 --> 00:40:26,839
Speaker 3: in your overall advantage point on this, you know, big

872
00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:27,759
Speaker 3: twelve sec game.

873
00:40:28,120 --> 00:40:32,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm I'm I think that at the correct specially

874
00:40:32,320 --> 00:40:34,480
Speaker 1: right around a pick. I mean, I make Kentucky a

875
00:40:34,480 --> 00:40:39,080
Speaker 1: small favorite here, but Kentucky still Look, they beat Vandy

876
00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:42,319
Speaker 1: shorthanded Vandy. They beat Texas A and M at home,

877
00:40:42,640 --> 00:40:44,680
Speaker 1: They beat Georgie at home. They got that win over Tennessee,

878
00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:46,719
Speaker 1: which I think is a good matchup. But you know,

879
00:40:46,760 --> 00:40:49,200
Speaker 1: they've been beating some teams at the BOP. So again

880
00:40:49,239 --> 00:40:51,600
Speaker 1: I'm worried about this big twelve sec thing, and like,

881
00:40:51,840 --> 00:40:55,040
Speaker 1: has Kentucky really figured it out? Now? Reeds has been

882
00:40:55,120 --> 00:40:58,200
Speaker 1: him shooting well is really big and they're starting to

883
00:40:58,239 --> 00:41:00,520
Speaker 1: figure things out. I don't know if they're all the

884
00:41:00,520 --> 00:41:04,520
Speaker 1: way there yet. Desperate Kansas team off three straight losses,

885
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:07,359
Speaker 1: I mean, self off a loss is incredible, gets to spread.

886
00:41:07,360 --> 00:41:08,920
Speaker 1: I do think it's an alarming that they you know,

887
00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:11,560
Speaker 1: they they get blown up by TCU after a loss,

888
00:41:11,719 --> 00:41:13,839
Speaker 1: and then after another loss they you know, they lose

889
00:41:13,880 --> 00:41:17,560
Speaker 1: to bailor. So it's tough. This game is very tough

890
00:41:17,560 --> 00:41:19,759
Speaker 1: for me. I think it's a pure stay away. I

891
00:41:19,760 --> 00:41:23,560
Speaker 1: can make cases for both teams in desperation mode and

892
00:41:23,560 --> 00:41:27,040
Speaker 1: have a lot of respect for self. And there's from

893
00:41:27,040 --> 00:41:30,000
Speaker 1: an in game coaching adjustment standpoint, Kansas is gonna have

894
00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:31,920
Speaker 1: a huge advantage here anything else.

895
00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:34,319
Speaker 3: I national scene that you're looking forward to watching, even

896
00:41:34,360 --> 00:41:36,279
Speaker 3: if it's just you know, to get a little more

897
00:41:36,320 --> 00:41:38,719
Speaker 3: intel and color on some of these teams to maybe

898
00:41:38,719 --> 00:41:39,960
Speaker 3: play them in the coming weeks.

899
00:41:40,360 --> 00:41:43,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I'm gonna go. Let's to round out

900
00:41:43,760 --> 00:41:46,760
Speaker 1: the big twelve sec stuff. I'm gonna bet. I'm probably

901
00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:51,680
Speaker 1: gonna bet Texas against Tennessee. So Tennessee who. I'm still

902
00:41:51,680 --> 00:41:54,560
Speaker 1: not a believer in as far as where the market

903
00:41:54,600 --> 00:41:57,080
Speaker 1: has them. I mean, look, teams are now shooting twenty

904
00:41:57,080 --> 00:41:59,600
Speaker 1: one point six percent from three. The record I think

905
00:41:59,600 --> 00:42:01,440
Speaker 1: we went over this is twenty five point three for

906
00:42:01,560 --> 00:42:05,360
Speaker 1: a single season. If you look at unguarded shots, unguarded,

907
00:42:05,600 --> 00:42:08,240
Speaker 1: they lead the country. Teams are shooting twenty five percent

908
00:42:08,280 --> 00:42:12,640
Speaker 1: from three on unguarded threes. The record for a single

909
00:42:12,640 --> 00:42:15,480
Speaker 1: season is twenty five percent. Appartents are shooting twenty percent

910
00:42:15,520 --> 00:42:20,320
Speaker 1: on open threes against Tennessee. Now, as my esteemed colleague

911
00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:23,400
Speaker 1: and friend Jim Broup had brought up on Twitter earlier today,

912
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:26,719
Speaker 1: the SEC can't shoot though, which is contributing to part

913
00:42:26,760 --> 00:42:28,239
Speaker 1: of this. Right, look at all the teams in the

914
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:31,560
Speaker 1: SEC that cannot shoot a lick. So there's some very

915
00:42:31,640 --> 00:42:35,800
Speaker 1: poor shooting teams in the SEC. Still there's still regression

916
00:42:35,840 --> 00:42:38,399
Speaker 1: coming for them, but that's part of it. Like there's

917
00:42:38,400 --> 00:42:40,280
Speaker 1: not a lot of good shooting teams in the SEC

918
00:42:40,400 --> 00:42:44,040
Speaker 1: now Texas thirty three to thirty four percent, but they

919
00:42:44,040 --> 00:42:47,680
Speaker 1: have shooters that will make open jumpers. Even Sir Bari

920
00:42:47,800 --> 00:42:50,120
Speaker 1: Rice is only shooting like thirty percent from three. He's

921
00:42:50,120 --> 00:42:51,920
Speaker 1: like a thirty four to thirty five percent career three

922
00:42:51,920 --> 00:42:54,279
Speaker 1: point shooter, cars probably a little over his average. But

923
00:42:54,480 --> 00:42:56,479
Speaker 1: I project this team to be right around like thirty five,

924
00:42:56,560 --> 00:42:58,400
Speaker 1: like right around one hundredth Like it's not an elite

925
00:42:58,440 --> 00:43:01,960
Speaker 1: shooting team, but they have guys will make threes. And again,

926
00:43:02,000 --> 00:43:04,640
Speaker 1: this is the big twelve SEC gap that I think

927
00:43:04,680 --> 00:43:08,760
Speaker 1: you're gonna get value on Texas here as a road dog.

928
00:43:10,880 --> 00:43:13,480
Speaker 1: So but we're gonna learn a lot about the Tennessee defense,

929
00:43:13,520 --> 00:43:14,960
Speaker 1: and like because I think it's a lot of luck,

930
00:43:14,960 --> 00:43:17,440
Speaker 1: and then it's lot There's some SEC offenses just are

931
00:43:17,480 --> 00:43:20,520
Speaker 1: just slogs and they just can't score consistently, which is

932
00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:23,480
Speaker 1: booy Tennessee's defensive numbers. And then I think a lot

933
00:43:23,480 --> 00:43:26,319
Speaker 1: of those bottom of the pack SEC teams that are

934
00:43:26,320 --> 00:43:31,840
Speaker 1: struggling are booing the top of the SEC, whereas the

935
00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:34,240
Speaker 1: Big twelve is so deep that it's hurting the bottom.

936
00:43:34,239 --> 00:43:35,800
Speaker 1: And that's why I think there's gonna be some value

937
00:43:36,080 --> 00:43:38,520
Speaker 1: on the Big twelve across the board, but especially these

938
00:43:38,520 --> 00:43:40,839
Speaker 1: teams that aren't necessarily at the top of the Big

939
00:43:40,880 --> 00:43:44,520
Speaker 1: twelve going up against the SEC. Let's see, Creighton probably

940
00:43:44,560 --> 00:43:46,200
Speaker 1: really are you're Creighton boys, Do you have any thoughts

941
00:43:46,239 --> 00:43:47,480
Speaker 1: that I think it's a pretty good spot to get

942
00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:50,960
Speaker 1: them against Xavier, who's coming off that really big emotional

943
00:43:51,000 --> 00:43:54,160
Speaker 1: win against Yukon. I mean, I still think Xavier has

944
00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:57,680
Speaker 1: some defensive issues and sou Le Boom, I mean, he

945
00:43:57,800 --> 00:44:00,839
Speaker 1: just couldn't he hit every big three when they needed it,

946
00:44:01,040 --> 00:44:05,359
Speaker 1: and that crowd got into it against Yukon. I think

947
00:44:05,400 --> 00:44:08,080
Speaker 1: this is a really good spot to get to get Creighton,

948
00:44:08,320 --> 00:44:12,520
Speaker 1: who really should have could have easily won that game

949
00:44:12,520 --> 00:44:15,680
Speaker 1: at Xavier, which went right down to the wire and

950
00:44:15,800 --> 00:44:19,439
Speaker 1: Xavier kind of pulled away late, but it was really

951
00:44:19,480 --> 00:44:20,719
Speaker 1: neck and neck. But I think it's a pretty good

952
00:44:20,760 --> 00:44:22,439
Speaker 1: spot for creating any thoughts there.

953
00:44:22,880 --> 00:44:25,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like the same game. Parlay there, take Crayton,

954
00:44:25,440 --> 00:44:26,000
Speaker 4: take the over.

955
00:44:26,600 --> 00:44:28,600
Speaker 3: I don't think they're going to slow this game down

956
00:44:29,080 --> 00:44:32,400
Speaker 3: against Xavier defense that, as you mentioned, is more than

957
00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:33,719
Speaker 3: willing to get up a ton of points. I think

958
00:44:33,760 --> 00:44:36,080
Speaker 3: what Yukon scored almost fifty in the second half.

959
00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:38,760
Speaker 1: Their guards have really big. They have guards of defensive

960
00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:40,960
Speaker 1: issues for Xavier. That's what might walk be back in March.

961
00:44:41,320 --> 00:44:43,480
Speaker 3: So I think you can squeeze out a little, you know,

962
00:44:43,560 --> 00:44:45,640
Speaker 3: plus money by parlaying it together.

963
00:44:45,719 --> 00:44:47,120
Speaker 4: That would be my angle in that game.

964
00:44:48,000 --> 00:44:50,640
Speaker 1: Wake Forest at home, I'd have some different defensive team

965
00:44:50,680 --> 00:44:53,279
Speaker 1: at home against NC State might look there. You want

966
00:44:53,280 --> 00:44:55,880
Speaker 1: to get real crazy, buy low sell high big twelve,

967
00:44:55,960 --> 00:44:58,480
Speaker 1: sec bottom big twelve. I gotta put money on my mouth.

968
00:44:58,560 --> 00:45:01,160
Speaker 1: Is Oklahoma at home again Salabama and we'll see where

969
00:45:01,160 --> 00:45:04,720
Speaker 1: the spread is. But there's some actually some matchup issues.

970
00:45:05,120 --> 00:45:08,160
Speaker 1: I do like Missouri at home against Iowa State. They

971
00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:12,640
Speaker 1: should be healthy. They zone, they press, and Iowa State's

972
00:45:12,640 --> 00:45:16,160
Speaker 1: been poor against both Cyclones are shooting over their heads

973
00:45:16,160 --> 00:45:18,719
Speaker 1: in league play as well. Missouri doesn't turn it over.

974
00:45:18,960 --> 00:45:21,040
Speaker 1: A lot of good things to like about Missouri. So

975
00:45:21,120 --> 00:45:24,080
Speaker 1: that's my one exception of sec verus Big Twelve.

976
00:45:24,880 --> 00:45:27,160
Speaker 4: I'm going to go over in that Arkansas Baylor game.

977
00:45:27,680 --> 00:45:30,520
Speaker 3: Baylor really, as I mentioned, down the stretch against Kansas

978
00:45:30,560 --> 00:45:33,040
Speaker 3: like you could get to the rim anytime that you want,

979
00:45:33,080 --> 00:45:35,360
Speaker 3: and you know Jalen Wilson is going to be in

980
00:45:35,360 --> 00:45:36,840
Speaker 3: the running for Big twelve Player of the Year, but

981
00:45:36,880 --> 00:45:39,800
Speaker 3: he's not exactly the most explosive player off the dribble,

982
00:45:39,960 --> 00:45:42,000
Speaker 3: and he was just getting right to the tin whenever

983
00:45:42,040 --> 00:45:44,160
Speaker 3: he wanted down the stretch almost carry them all the

984
00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:46,239
Speaker 3: way back in that game. When you look at what

985
00:45:46,280 --> 00:45:48,480
Speaker 3: Anthony Black can do out of the point guard position

986
00:45:48,760 --> 00:45:51,000
Speaker 3: if he stays out of foul trouble and limits his

987
00:45:51,040 --> 00:45:52,880
Speaker 3: turnovers a little bit, I think this could be an

988
00:45:52,960 --> 00:45:55,080
Speaker 3: up and down game. So obviously it's going to depend

989
00:45:55,160 --> 00:45:57,279
Speaker 3: on the total, but that's just something i'd circle as

990
00:45:57,280 --> 00:46:00,480
Speaker 3: a potential shootout in this non con matchup like that.

991
00:46:01,600 --> 00:46:04,000
Speaker 1: I'll mention, let's get We're gonna get uglier. I mentioned

992
00:46:04,040 --> 00:46:08,000
Speaker 1: Oklahoma Alabama. Let's get even uglier than that. Let's go Louisville,

993
00:46:08,040 --> 00:46:11,839
Speaker 1: who quickly didn't cover against Boston College. They lost by ten,

994
00:46:11,920 --> 00:46:13,160
Speaker 1: and I'll catch a nine and a half. They're up,

995
00:46:13,160 --> 00:46:15,560
Speaker 1: but I think double digits and melted down. I think

996
00:46:15,600 --> 00:46:18,160
Speaker 1: that Louisville might we might get them at a I mean,

997
00:46:18,160 --> 00:46:23,720
Speaker 1: they've basically been unbettable. They are down now, they're outside

998
00:46:23,760 --> 00:46:25,480
Speaker 1: the top three hundred and kempalm that was a big

999
00:46:25,520 --> 00:46:28,799
Speaker 1: watch in Louisville. Outside the top three hundred Louisville basketball,

1000
00:46:29,160 --> 00:46:31,200
Speaker 1: that's insane. But they're gonna play Notre Dame. There probably

1001
00:46:31,239 --> 00:46:34,279
Speaker 1: catching double digits at Notre Dame. This is a Notre

1002
00:46:34,320 --> 00:46:37,840
Speaker 1: Dame team that cannot defend at all. And here's the

1003
00:46:37,880 --> 00:46:40,440
Speaker 1: thing with and that they'll run some zone. Louisville's offense

1004
00:46:40,440 --> 00:46:42,799
Speaker 1: has actually been not the worst thing in the world

1005
00:46:42,840 --> 00:46:45,960
Speaker 1: against zone. They've been terrible against fan. Look why does

1006
00:46:45,960 --> 00:46:47,920
Speaker 1: Louisville suck so bad? Why? I mean, there's a lot

1007
00:46:47,960 --> 00:46:50,960
Speaker 1: of reasons, but they turn it over on almost every possession.

1008
00:46:51,040 --> 00:46:54,000
Speaker 1: They are three hundred and sixty first in turnover percentage

1009
00:46:54,000 --> 00:46:54,600
Speaker 1: in the country.

1010
00:46:54,760 --> 00:46:56,399
Speaker 4: Unbelievable, unbelievable.

1011
00:46:56,520 --> 00:46:59,120
Speaker 1: Do you know's defense is three hundred sixty first Notre Dame,

1012
00:46:59,440 --> 00:47:03,919
Speaker 1: So nottoor Dame forces zero turnovers, and look, they're gonna

1013
00:47:03,920 --> 00:47:06,480
Speaker 1: have some athletic advantages at spots here they can get

1014
00:47:06,480 --> 00:47:11,120
Speaker 1: to the rim a little bit. They're you know, it's

1015
00:47:11,560 --> 00:47:13,960
Speaker 1: any offensive redounds off.

1016
00:47:13,760 --> 00:47:16,440
Speaker 4: For you here. Do you need fifteen? Do you need twelve?

1017
00:47:16,600 --> 00:47:19,719
Speaker 1: No, it's not gonna be that. I would like to get. Yeah,

1018
00:47:19,719 --> 00:47:23,000
Speaker 1: I would like to get twelve. And the little U

1019
00:47:23,000 --> 00:47:25,799
Speaker 1: has been like they're just so inconsistent and they'll just

1020
00:47:25,840 --> 00:47:31,279
Speaker 1: melt down. And they've shown some improvement recently, like just

1021
00:47:31,360 --> 00:47:33,600
Speaker 1: for stretches, and then they'll end up getting blown out.

1022
00:47:33,600 --> 00:47:35,160
Speaker 1: They end up melting down. There's a lot of issues,

1023
00:47:35,160 --> 00:47:36,759
Speaker 1: and a lot of them come to turnovers. So I'm

1024
00:47:36,800 --> 00:47:39,440
Speaker 1: counting on them not turning it over a ton here

1025
00:47:39,480 --> 00:47:41,919
Speaker 1: against a Notre Dame team that just simply won't turn

1026
00:47:41,960 --> 00:47:45,200
Speaker 1: you over, and then another one if you go a

1027
00:47:45,239 --> 00:47:46,960
Speaker 1: lot of people want to talk about this luck metric

1028
00:47:47,000 --> 00:47:48,800
Speaker 1: on Ken Palm, which is basically just looks like the

1029
00:47:48,840 --> 00:47:52,440
Speaker 1: win probability of your games that you won versus what

1030
00:47:52,560 --> 00:47:55,439
Speaker 1: you should have won. Unc Ashville is number one by far,

1031
00:47:55,480 --> 00:47:57,319
Speaker 1: which I could have guessed. And last night I guess

1032
00:47:57,320 --> 00:47:59,480
Speaker 1: what they did. They won another game in overtime. They'd

1033
00:47:59,480 --> 00:47:59,839
Speaker 1: be parting.

1034
00:48:00,360 --> 00:48:04,040
Speaker 3: Reptember is out of control. Pember's animating murdered me in

1035
00:48:04,040 --> 00:48:06,080
Speaker 3: my college fantasy matchup this week. I was like, well,

1036
00:48:06,120 --> 00:48:08,000
Speaker 3: I can close the laptop now, not going to win.

1037
00:48:08,040 --> 00:48:10,840
Speaker 3: The guy is an absolute stat sheet stuffer.

1038
00:48:11,200 --> 00:48:14,080
Speaker 1: He had forty eight. If you're wondering, it's the Presbyterian

1039
00:48:14,160 --> 00:48:18,520
Speaker 1: last night. He is an absolute monster capable of doing that.

1040
00:48:18,600 --> 00:48:21,799
Speaker 1: He's a Tennessee transfer and Matt Tennessee. If he has

1041
00:48:21,840 --> 00:48:24,200
Speaker 1: on Tennessee right now, he can fill it up. But

1042
00:48:24,320 --> 00:48:27,279
Speaker 1: this is a team that's been down double digits routinely

1043
00:48:27,320 --> 00:48:31,400
Speaker 1: in the second half, and they played Campbell on the road,

1044
00:48:31,920 --> 00:48:34,239
Speaker 1: Campbell the fighting, Campbell's coming off a big road win

1045
00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:36,960
Speaker 1: at high Point. This is a Campbell team that was

1046
00:48:37,040 --> 00:48:41,080
Speaker 1: up eighteen in the second half at unc Asheville earlier

1047
00:48:41,160 --> 00:48:43,200
Speaker 1: in January. They're up eighteen and the second half and

1048
00:48:43,239 --> 00:48:48,839
Speaker 1: they lost by three. They their defensive issues schematically are

1049
00:48:48,880 --> 00:48:52,200
Speaker 1: things that unc Ashville won't exploit. So I actually like

1050
00:48:52,280 --> 00:48:54,960
Speaker 1: this matchup. They'll grind this game down. That first game

1051
00:48:55,040 --> 00:48:57,880
Speaker 1: was fifty eight to fifty five. I think Campbell's going

1052
00:48:57,920 --> 00:49:01,600
Speaker 1: to pick off Uncashville. Pember's and amazing. They're also shooting

1053
00:49:01,600 --> 00:49:03,760
Speaker 1: way over there. I mean, Ashville shooting thirty nine percent

1054
00:49:03,800 --> 00:49:06,239
Speaker 1: from three in league play and they're holding opponents to

1055
00:49:06,280 --> 00:49:10,319
Speaker 1: twenty nine percent. There's some shooting regression here, and I

1056
00:49:10,320 --> 00:49:12,120
Speaker 1: think Campbell's going to pick them off. Is it this

1057
00:49:12,200 --> 00:49:14,799
Speaker 1: ashvill team keeps getting down double digits in the second half,

1058
00:49:14,840 --> 00:49:17,400
Speaker 1: they keep coming back. Noptember is amazing and could be

1059
00:49:17,400 --> 00:49:19,720
Speaker 1: a part of that, but I think their run ends here.

1060
00:49:20,040 --> 00:49:23,680
Speaker 1: So let's go. Let's go with some camels. That's all

1061
00:49:23,719 --> 00:49:25,480
Speaker 1: I got for Saturday. You got anything else you want.

1062
00:49:25,360 --> 00:49:26,400
Speaker 4: To That's it for me.

1063
00:49:26,560 --> 00:49:28,719
Speaker 3: I do wish there was an advanced metric because I

1064
00:49:29,080 --> 00:49:31,920
Speaker 3: love the logic that you're laying out with Louisville against

1065
00:49:31,960 --> 00:49:34,160
Speaker 3: the Notre Dame defense that is not disrupted, doesn't turn

1066
00:49:34,160 --> 00:49:38,840
Speaker 3: anybody over. I wonder how many unforced turnovers Louisville coughs

1067
00:49:38,920 --> 00:49:41,520
Speaker 3: up per game, you know, the alley oop that goes

1068
00:49:41,600 --> 00:49:44,400
Speaker 3: into the third row, or dribbling off your knee, Because

1069
00:49:44,400 --> 00:49:46,000
Speaker 3: I do think that that comes into play where it's

1070
00:49:46,040 --> 00:49:48,920
Speaker 3: like Notre Dame just by being folding chairs on the

1071
00:49:48,960 --> 00:49:52,200
Speaker 3: defensive ends, does Louisville still turn it over twelve times

1072
00:49:52,200 --> 00:49:52,440
Speaker 3: in this.

1073
00:49:52,560 --> 00:49:55,279
Speaker 1: Yes, they'll still turn it over. They're three hundred and

1074
00:49:55,320 --> 00:49:58,719
Speaker 1: sixty third and non steel turnover percentage three hundred and

1075
00:49:58,760 --> 00:50:00,919
Speaker 1: sixty third, So there's still going to turn it over,

1076
00:50:01,160 --> 00:50:03,759
Speaker 1: but it's just not going to be as frequent and

1077
00:50:03,800 --> 00:50:06,359
Speaker 1: like they're going to have an athletic advantage here at

1078
00:50:06,360 --> 00:50:09,600
Speaker 1: certain positions. I think that they'll be able, you know,

1079
00:50:09,800 --> 00:50:11,480
Speaker 1: not Name's not gonna get any off the rebounds, not

1080
00:50:11,480 --> 00:50:14,120
Speaker 1: that they try. I don't know. It feels like it

1081
00:50:14,160 --> 00:50:16,680
Speaker 1: feels like this is the spot to get Louisville, but

1082
00:50:16,920 --> 00:50:18,719
Speaker 1: I don't know who is there ever really a spot

1083
00:50:18,760 --> 00:50:20,920
Speaker 1: to get this team outside the top three hundred? Incredible,

1084
00:50:20,960 --> 00:50:23,400
Speaker 1: but this Notre Namety but also does not defend like

1085
00:50:23,480 --> 00:50:26,680
Speaker 1: they're just not a good defensive team. They run some

1086
00:50:26,719 --> 00:50:28,480
Speaker 1: great offense, they don't they don't turn the ball over

1087
00:50:28,480 --> 00:50:30,080
Speaker 1: as well. That's just the fear here is that Notre

1088
00:50:30,120 --> 00:50:32,000
Speaker 1: Dame doesn't turnovers at Louisville. If they are just turning,

1089
00:50:32,120 --> 00:50:34,600
Speaker 1: like the free possessions are all going to go Notre

1090
00:50:34,680 --> 00:50:37,920
Speaker 1: Dame's way, but might get an inflated number here. We

1091
00:50:38,000 --> 00:50:40,040
Speaker 1: shall see all right, that's going to do it for us.

1092
00:50:40,120 --> 00:50:42,719
Speaker 1: Make sure thanks as always to Mike for joining me.

1093
00:50:42,960 --> 00:50:46,560
Speaker 1: BJ will see you on Monday for the Monday night

1094
00:50:46,600 --> 00:50:50,319
Speaker 1: preview and weekend recap. Thanks to mister Jim Root my guy,

1095
00:50:50,360 --> 00:50:53,640
Speaker 1: for joining us and obliging for our TCU addition to

1096
00:50:53,680 --> 00:50:57,640
Speaker 1: the Future's portfolio. But make sure you subscribe on Subscribe subscribe,

1097
00:50:57,680 --> 00:51:00,880
Speaker 1: leave review we'll do giveaway to give aways Monday. If

1098
00:51:00,880 --> 00:51:04,440
Speaker 1: you leave any reviews this week five star review just

1099
00:51:04,600 --> 00:51:07,640
Speaker 1: say whatever you want, and those really help us out

1100
00:51:08,280 --> 00:51:12,600
Speaker 1: big bets on Campus Live. We'll be back early February.

1101
00:51:12,840 --> 00:51:15,600
Speaker 1: More details that come Saturday mornings. Myself and the guys

1102
00:51:15,640 --> 00:51:17,560
Speaker 1: from a three Man Weave. Make sure you check their

1103
00:51:17,640 --> 00:51:21,360
Speaker 1: episodes out midweek. We'll be back on Monday. As always,

1104
00:51:21,760 --> 00:51:24,200
Speaker 1: Good luck this weekend with whatever you bet. Make sure

1105
00:51:24,200 --> 00:51:26,479
Speaker 1: you're done with the wirebarding action ofber Cap to follow

1106
00:51:26,520 --> 00:51:28,920
Speaker 1: all of our plays, and we'll see you on Monday.

1107
00:51:29,080 --> 00:51:40,200
Speaker 2: Cheers.

1108
00:51:41,560 --> 00:51:46,080
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1109
00:51:46,120 --> 00:51:48,880
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1110
00:51:48,920 --> 00:51:52,040
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler