WEBVTT - Big Tech Continues to Push Markets; Bitcoin Weakness Persists 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:13.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 0:00:13.840 --> 0:00:17.920 Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 0:00:18.200 --> 0:00:22.000 on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 0:00:22.360 --> 0:00:25.680 Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 0:00:25.760 --> 0:00:27.320 us live on YouTube Now. 0:00:27.400 --> 0:00:30.000 Folks, it's not only the conversation of the day. I 0:00:30.040 --> 0:00:32.080 think it's sort of the conversation of the week. It's 0:00:32.080 --> 0:00:36.159 a holiday lengthened work week. It's sort of weird. And 0:00:36.200 --> 0:00:40.280 then there's after Laurie Kelvicina joins us out of US 0:00:40.280 --> 0:00:43.800 Equity Strategy RBC. She says, to play to when you 0:00:43.880 --> 0:00:48.760 have to participate, what do markets do after Thanksgiving? We 0:00:48.920 --> 0:00:51.879 used to shut down November fifteenth, we got an M 0:00:51.880 --> 0:00:55.560 and a boom Wall Street's mental What do you foresee 0:00:56.240 --> 0:00:58.360 to the end of the year in terms of oomph? 0:00:59.160 --> 0:01:02.400 So question Tom, and I think, as we you know, 0:01:02.440 --> 0:01:05.000 we are sitting here this morning, the futures are up 0:01:05.040 --> 0:01:07.120 a little bit. We had a good Friday, We had 0:01:07.480 --> 0:01:11.640 a very stream. He did, he did, And look, I 0:01:11.640 --> 0:01:13.600 mean anecdotally, it sounds like they're a fair number of 0:01:13.640 --> 0:01:15.560 people who wanted to take some time off this week. 0:01:15.600 --> 0:01:16.520 That aren't getting it. 0:01:16.600 --> 0:01:18.160 So I think people are at a minimum, are going 0:01:18.200 --> 0:01:20.959 to be cranky when they get back after December. But 0:01:21.000 --> 0:01:23.160 I think the reality is that there have been a 0:01:23.240 --> 0:01:26.800 lot of things causing stress in this market, maybe not 0:01:26.959 --> 0:01:29.680 any single one of them enormous stress, but it all 0:01:29.760 --> 0:01:31.360 kind of adds up. I think the FED was one 0:01:31.400 --> 0:01:34.400 of those, frankly, because we had seen expectations for cuts 0:01:34.760 --> 0:01:37.400 taken out, and when you've seen that happen in recent years, 0:01:37.400 --> 0:01:39.240 you know, kind of going back to late twenty twenty two, 0:01:39.640 --> 0:01:41.440 that tends to trip up the stock market, and when 0:01:41.480 --> 0:01:43.280 we put cuts back in, it tends to help the 0:01:43.319 --> 0:01:45.360 stock market. So I have no idea what they're going 0:01:45.440 --> 0:01:49.040 to say. I know that RBC's rate strategist has been 0:01:49.040 --> 0:01:51.680 in the December skip camp, and then he thinks they 0:01:51.760 --> 0:01:54.360 resume next year. So my guess is the drama is 0:01:54.400 --> 0:01:57.920 not yet over. But we also know that valuations have 0:01:58.000 --> 0:02:00.160 been a problem since August, and we've seen, you know, 0:02:00.280 --> 0:02:03.200 f y two valuations sort of bumping up against ceilings. 0:02:03.400 --> 0:02:05.440 We're going to cycle into new earnings at some point, 0:02:05.560 --> 0:02:08.040 but right now companies don't want to talk a whole 0:02:08.040 --> 0:02:10.400 lot about twenty twenty six, So I think it's. 0:02:10.280 --> 0:02:11.880 Also do you want to talk about until. 0:02:12.360 --> 0:02:13.240 I don't think so either. 0:02:13.280 --> 0:02:16.280 I mean, I will say, you know, the consumer companies 0:02:16.400 --> 0:02:18.200 are coming up. You know, we've got a few more 0:02:18.240 --> 0:02:20.560 this week. They're kind of trickling in. It was kind 0:02:20.600 --> 0:02:22.640 of hit or missed last week. There were some good ones, 0:02:22.639 --> 0:02:25.400 there were some not so good ones. You know, it 0:02:25.440 --> 0:02:28.200 does seem like there are certain retailers who are winning 0:02:28.320 --> 0:02:32.400 with all cohorts of consumers that have more value conscious offerings. 0:02:33.000 --> 0:02:35.320 So I think companies are still managing through pretty well. 0:02:35.360 --> 0:02:38.799 But this feels very unsettled, to be honest, coming back 0:02:38.840 --> 0:02:39.600 post Thanksgiving. 0:02:39.919 --> 0:02:42.720 So I know you guys at RBC have your twenty 0:02:42.720 --> 0:02:45.440 twenty six outlook here, what are the themes that you're going 0:02:45.480 --> 0:02:46.920 to be focused on for twenty cox Well, you. 0:02:46.960 --> 0:02:49.360 Know, we actually we did sort of an early cut 0:02:49.400 --> 0:02:51.680 back in September of you know, this is what we're 0:02:51.680 --> 0:02:53.800 seeing for the second half, you know, kind of a 0:02:53.840 --> 0:02:56.480 second half September type target. We haven't done, you know, 0:02:56.560 --> 0:02:58.480 sort of here's the big burrimo. 0:02:58.200 --> 0:03:00.360 For you know, the one that everyone right at the 0:03:00.400 --> 0:03:00.640 end of. 0:03:00.600 --> 0:03:03.240 The year, partially because we had done that early one, 0:03:03.280 --> 0:03:05.320 but we had been saying seventy one hundred for sort 0:03:05.360 --> 0:03:08.960 of a mid to second half twenty twenty six kind 0:03:09.000 --> 0:03:11.000 of number. And I would say our messaging hasn't changed, 0:03:11.040 --> 0:03:13.600 which was that we have thought for quite some time 0:03:13.760 --> 0:03:16.720 the market was way overdue for kind of a five 0:03:16.760 --> 0:03:19.959 to ten percent garden variety type pullback. We finally crossed 0:03:19.960 --> 0:03:22.639 the five percent threshold on Thursday. That's very good news 0:03:22.680 --> 0:03:24.720 because I'd rather get this out of the way now 0:03:25.160 --> 0:03:27.920 than have it overhanging the market early next year. And 0:03:27.960 --> 0:03:30.000 the way we've put it is, we think stocks can 0:03:30.040 --> 0:03:33.160 do well next year, but we do think we have 0:03:33.240 --> 0:03:35.040 some stuff to work through to get there. And the 0:03:35.080 --> 0:03:37.360 good news is we finally started working through those things. 0:03:37.560 --> 0:03:41.720 But we've got arguably strong earnings environment. Second third quarter 0:03:41.720 --> 0:03:44.640 earnings were very good. We've got presumably a FED that's 0:03:44.680 --> 0:03:48.720 in a easing mode. Are those two things in and 0:03:48.800 --> 0:03:50.760 of themselves enough to move the market hired? 0:03:50.920 --> 0:03:51.040 Well? 0:03:51.080 --> 0:03:52.960 Well, this is the interesting sort of part of the 0:03:52.960 --> 0:03:56.400 FED conversation from an equity market perspective, right, which is. 0:03:56.720 --> 0:03:58.880 You know, two or three more cuts, right. 0:03:58.920 --> 0:04:01.360 I mean, that's good and that's helpful, but it's not 0:04:01.480 --> 0:04:04.560 like we're at the beginning of something big and long lasting. 0:04:04.600 --> 0:04:07.040 If you look at most forecasts around the street, right, 0:04:07.080 --> 0:04:09.240 this is kind of a modest adjustment cutting, you know, 0:04:09.320 --> 0:04:11.360 type cycle that most folks are talking about. I do 0:04:11.360 --> 0:04:13.920 think earning's growth is extremely important. I think that's what's 0:04:13.920 --> 0:04:14.960 been powering markets. 0:04:15.000 --> 0:04:18.720 Can you model it out first Q one twenty twenty six. 0:04:18.839 --> 0:04:19.719 In the first quarter? 0:04:19.920 --> 0:04:23.359 I think that, you know, we I think January is 0:04:23.360 --> 0:04:25.640 going to be sort of a pivotal time, to be honest, Tom, 0:04:25.680 --> 0:04:28.920 when companies really kind of unveil the twenty twenty six 0:04:28.960 --> 0:04:31.360 out looks. And we keep seeing that in commentary, right, 0:04:31.400 --> 0:04:34.360 Analysts who dare to ask the question are getting brushed back, 0:04:34.360 --> 0:04:35.960 and companies are saying we'll get back to you in 0:04:36.040 --> 0:04:38.840 January or February. I don't think anyone's really going to care, 0:04:38.880 --> 0:04:41.560 honestly about four Q results by the time January February 0:04:41.640 --> 0:04:42.159 rolls around. 0:04:42.240 --> 0:04:46.160 Interesting at Lori Kelvicina, we continue with the RBC at 0:04:46.200 --> 0:04:48.920 Capital Markets. I went and nerd early in the show. 0:04:48.960 --> 0:04:51.200 I'm going to do it again with the lawyer Paul. 0:04:51.320 --> 0:04:58.880 Can we go back to memory John Maloney Tacoma, remember 0:04:58.960 --> 0:05:03.200 telling to Coo, Okay, there was an invention, believe it 0:05:03.279 --> 0:05:07.080 or not, in the sixth exists didn't exist. Enterprise value 0:05:07.160 --> 0:05:13.279 to EBITDA. I'm this weekend, I saw essays, essays, essays 0:05:13.640 --> 0:05:16.680 of this ratio of debt cash stock is compared to 0:05:18.200 --> 0:05:22.320 the income statement somewhere any income statement plus depreciation amortization. 0:05:22.480 --> 0:05:25.520 Do you have a conviction that, in the cacophity we're 0:05:25.560 --> 0:05:28.760 living now, you can use a modern ratio like EV 0:05:28.920 --> 0:05:29.600 to EBITDA. 0:05:29.960 --> 0:05:30.960 So you know, it's funny Tom. 0:05:31.000 --> 0:05:33.520 A number of years back, I actually surveyed all of 0:05:33.560 --> 0:05:37.960 my analysts about what valuation metrics they thought were appropriate 0:05:38.000 --> 0:05:40.160 for their industries, and I made them give me two. 0:05:40.839 --> 0:05:42.520 And I did find that a lot of the tech 0:05:42.560 --> 0:05:43.960 related analysts gave me. 0:05:44.040 --> 0:05:46.080 EV related metrics. 0:05:46.800 --> 0:05:48.840 That was really where it tended to be limited, to 0:05:48.839 --> 0:05:51.719 be honest, And then the thing that everybody sort of 0:05:51.760 --> 0:05:54.080 agreed on it may not have been their first indicator. 0:05:54.120 --> 0:05:56.720 In fact, it usually wasn't their first indicator, but forward pe. 0:05:57.279 --> 0:05:59.560 So I tend to still be a forward pe person 0:06:00.080 --> 0:06:02.800 because I think, you know, when you're comparing industries, you're 0:06:02.839 --> 0:06:05.880 comparing sectors, you're comparing size segments, you need something that's 0:06:05.920 --> 0:06:07.320 more universally applicable. 0:06:08.040 --> 0:06:10.040 All right, let's stay with the earnings theme. Here, are 0:06:10.080 --> 0:06:12.800 the earnings strong enough to support this market and to 0:06:12.839 --> 0:06:13.480 drive it higher? 0:06:13.520 --> 0:06:13.800 Right now? 0:06:13.800 --> 0:06:14.400 Do you think so? 0:06:14.520 --> 0:06:17.120 You know, there's healthy earnings growth embedded in the consensus 0:06:17.120 --> 0:06:19.599 expectations for next year when we've modeled it out. We 0:06:19.680 --> 0:06:22.680 haven't gotten quite as constructive on as consensus, but we've 0:06:22.680 --> 0:06:24.720 still gott you know, some healthy numbers. I think around 0:06:24.800 --> 0:06:28.600 like ten percent or so. The reality, though, is that 0:06:28.680 --> 0:06:31.640 earning sentiment matters just as much as the earnings themselves. 0:06:31.680 --> 0:06:33.880 And the rate of upward revisions for the broader market 0:06:33.880 --> 0:06:34.719 peaked in August. 0:06:35.320 --> 0:06:37.400 We don't have post and video. 0:06:37.200 --> 0:06:40.720 You know, sort of results yet for that particular indicator 0:06:40.720 --> 0:06:42.520 that we look at the rate of upward revisions. So 0:06:42.560 --> 0:06:45.080 what I need to see in coming weeks is as 0:06:45.120 --> 0:06:47.640 analysts go back and do like all their little modeling, 0:06:47.760 --> 0:06:50.960 you know, and update all their numbers, do we surpass 0:06:51.160 --> 0:06:53.159 or return to that August peak? And we just don't 0:06:53.160 --> 0:06:54.760 know the answer to the question yet. But I think 0:06:54.800 --> 0:06:57.839 one thing markets are struggling with is the idea that 0:06:57.920 --> 0:07:00.760 earning sentiment it's okay, it's just not as good as 0:07:00.760 --> 0:07:01.080 it was. 0:07:01.200 --> 0:07:04.000 Interesting LORI, we don't care. What we care about is 0:07:04.000 --> 0:07:06.440 how do you do mashed potatoes Thanksgiving? 0:07:06.480 --> 0:07:08.520 I'm gonna be honest with you, Tom. I don't cook. 0:07:08.640 --> 0:07:14.080 I hate I burn everything. I just we we with 0:07:14.080 --> 0:07:16.000 our Thanksgiving. We go to my in laws and we're 0:07:16.040 --> 0:07:18.120 responsible for old wine, pies and bread. 0:07:18.960 --> 0:07:21.520 So and we buy some very nice pies. 0:07:21.600 --> 0:07:24.760 Why do you make old wine? You like? Cook Wednesday night? 0:07:24.880 --> 0:07:26.560 I'm gonna be on I don't do this either. I 0:07:26.640 --> 0:07:28.800 run after the children and let my husband do it. 0:07:29.640 --> 0:07:34.320 Okay, honest right in front. It's actually a lot like 0:07:36.400 --> 0:07:39.840 laurd Kelvinsy have a wonderful holiday. Thank you for that 0:07:40.000 --> 0:07:45.720 brief and particularly the CFA worthiness a e v uh. 0:07:45.920 --> 0:07:50.120 Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 0:07:57.360 --> 0:08:00.920 You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live 0:08:01.000 --> 0:08:04.520 weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Apple, 0:08:04.560 --> 0:08:07.920 Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 0:08:08.040 --> 0:08:09.640 watch us live on YouTube. 0:08:09.880 --> 0:08:11.800 Joining us out Smart and Spain on a Planet. Michael 0:08:11.880 --> 0:08:15.280 McLoone Bloomberg Intelligence senior, Come out of the Analyst. Tom 0:08:15.360 --> 0:08:18.320 stopped making fun of bitcoin at thirty thousand. Boom up 0:08:18.400 --> 0:08:21.000 it went gold, Boom up it went what are you 0:08:21.040 --> 0:08:23.000 focused on A wise one this morning? 0:08:24.560 --> 0:08:26.800 Well, I like, I want to tilt over to your 0:08:26.920 --> 0:08:30.280 term before Tom of bitdog, I think is becoming bit doog. 0:08:30.640 --> 0:08:32.680 The world's changed for cryptocurrencies. 0:08:32.720 --> 0:08:35.080 We had this massive pump on the having and the 0:08:35.080 --> 0:08:39.239 ETF pilot and the Trump administration jumping on board and 0:08:39.400 --> 0:08:42.360 very well entrenched into space now and it's peaked. It's 0:08:42.400 --> 0:08:45.679 a classic I think peak bull market peaks on euphoria. 0:08:45.880 --> 0:08:48.040 The thing is now it's dragging everything lower with it. 0:08:48.120 --> 0:08:51.200 So as of Friday, the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto index was 0:08:51.240 --> 0:08:53.880 down twenty one percent. On the air was up almost 0:08:53.920 --> 0:08:56.800 a third. Bitcoin is right now down about ten percent year. 0:08:56.880 --> 0:08:59.079 The key things where's it go next? The key thing 0:08:59.120 --> 0:09:01.600 I look at is at the same time cryptos are 0:09:01.640 --> 0:09:03.880 going lower, stock market volatile is just buried. 0:09:03.920 --> 0:09:04.000 Now. 0:09:04.040 --> 0:09:05.760 We know the VIX is up, but one hundred and 0:09:05.760 --> 0:09:07.840 twenty day volatile he's still around eleven percent. 0:09:07.920 --> 0:09:09.960 That's a very low level. So I think the whole 0:09:10.080 --> 0:09:10.680 space has. 0:09:10.600 --> 0:09:13.800 Got more more de risking to go into the end 0:09:13.800 --> 0:09:16.120 of the year, which is probably the primary risk is 0:09:16.120 --> 0:09:17.640 there for bitcoin? 0:09:17.720 --> 0:09:21.240 Does technical analysis work Mike? And if so, was there 0:09:21.800 --> 0:09:23.560 a support number like I don't know. I just kind 0:09:23.559 --> 0:09:25.880 of thought support was one hundred thousand, and we blue 0:09:26.040 --> 0:09:27.760 past that exactly. 0:09:27.800 --> 0:09:31.559 That was the key level, certainly psychological, now, Paul, it 0:09:31.640 --> 0:09:33.679 has to work. It doesn't know, so it has to work, 0:09:33.720 --> 0:09:36.079 but it has to matter because, as time always points out, 0:09:36.080 --> 0:09:38.600 there's no underlying there's no basis. Like I trade crude 0:09:38.640 --> 0:09:41.120 all futures, I know I'm trading those against crudel, I'll 0:09:41.120 --> 0:09:42.480 trade treasury bond futures. 0:09:42.600 --> 0:09:44.800 I know I'm trading those against treasury bonds. 0:09:44.840 --> 0:09:47.800 In bitcoin, at cryptos, there's no basis except for crypto dollars. 0:09:48.040 --> 0:09:50.079 So the key level now, I think it's around eighty four. 0:09:50.120 --> 0:09:52.960 It's been holding eighty four. It's a decent support level. 0:09:52.960 --> 0:09:55.600 The key resistance is around ninety four. That'd be unchanged 0:09:55.679 --> 0:09:57.800 on the year and my bias. It's more a greater 0:09:57.960 --> 0:10:00.880 risk of breaking through eighty four and get towards fifty 0:10:01.280 --> 0:10:02.200 than going higher. 0:10:02.240 --> 0:10:03.320 And the key thing about. 0:10:03.120 --> 0:10:05.760 Fifty is is I love how crypto people say look 0:10:05.760 --> 0:10:07.800 at the chart, but if you look like an annual 0:10:07.920 --> 0:10:11.480 chart going back to twenty twenty twenty one, fifty has 0:10:11.520 --> 0:10:13.160 been a key level for many years. 0:10:13.400 --> 0:10:14.839 Wow, fifty all right? 0:10:16.440 --> 0:10:19.320 Gold Gold seems to be holding at that four thousand 0:10:19.480 --> 0:10:21.240 level here pretty solidly. 0:10:21.320 --> 0:10:23.439 Mike, is that a good support here? 0:10:24.400 --> 0:10:25.640 It's becoming a part of it. 0:10:25.679 --> 0:10:29.199 Gold's been and stare step rally step up to three thousand, hangout, 0:10:29.400 --> 0:10:30.880 step out the four thousand hangout. 0:10:30.920 --> 0:10:31.800 The problem is now. 0:10:31.640 --> 0:10:35.560 It's so extended versus a sixty month moving average. Tom 0:10:35.559 --> 0:10:38.000 would like this. It's about a three standard deviation move. 0:10:38.200 --> 0:10:39.920 You have to go back to nineteen eighties. And the 0:10:40.000 --> 0:10:43.360 key thing that's happening about Gold, it's well exactly, it's 0:10:43.400 --> 0:10:46.760 never rallied that this type of velocity with stock market 0:10:46.760 --> 0:10:49.320 one hundred and twenty day volatily this low, that's just 0:10:49.440 --> 0:10:51.800 never happened. That's what I'm concerned that that volatili might 0:10:51.800 --> 0:10:52.840 pick up into the year end. 0:10:53.480 --> 0:10:56.880 Mike, we don't care. Coral Gables, Florida is the real 0:10:57.000 --> 0:11:00.360 estate market cracked? I mean, real estate never goes down 0:11:00.400 --> 0:11:04.240 in Coral Gables, right Well, I'm hearing it everywhere. 0:11:04.280 --> 0:11:08.120 Paul is certainly here recently reduced most buyers, most transactions 0:11:08.160 --> 0:11:10.520 now are reduced prices. And that's what I get from 0:11:10.559 --> 0:11:12.959 my colleague on the journals team, which I sit right next. 0:11:13.040 --> 0:11:15.679 I'm hearing it everywhere. Same with farm land in the Midwest, 0:11:15.679 --> 0:11:18.480 which I'm very close to. Recent reduced prices are all 0:11:18.559 --> 0:11:21.160 trying to dropping. They're just not buying lifting offers anymore. 0:11:21.760 --> 0:11:26.760 One point six million Navari Avenue cozy, two thousand square feet. 0:11:27.080 --> 0:11:30.920 It's a cross the seahouse. It's cozy three three one 0:11:31.080 --> 0:11:33.720 three four, all right. I mean, you know they're. 0:11:33.679 --> 0:11:38.520 Living in some high rise Miami thing with all the high. 0:11:37.960 --> 0:11:40.360 Then you got to play Miami Vice music exactly. 0:11:40.360 --> 0:11:42.319 He's not doing the bungalow thing. 0:11:42.440 --> 0:11:45.160 I okay, you know, I may I may have to 0:11:45.200 --> 0:11:46.240 do a road trip down there. 0:11:46.320 --> 0:11:48.720 Yeah, you know, span the Michael take care of us. 0:11:48.520 --> 0:11:52.040 Michael, put me on the Harley and off we go. 0:11:52.480 --> 0:11:55.720 Michael mcgloone, thank you so much. I'm a wonderful beginning 0:11:55.760 --> 0:11:58.880 to the holiday season. McLoone, smarter than the average bar. 0:11:59.040 --> 0:12:01.679 And all the people warming down to South Florida, all 0:12:01.720 --> 0:12:04.160 the snow bunnies and some Mike can't get a reservation 0:12:04.240 --> 0:12:05.400 in his restaurants anymore. 0:12:05.480 --> 0:12:07.800 We're talking to New York City people, and New Wave 0:12:08.000 --> 0:12:08.640 going down. 0:12:08.679 --> 0:12:10.800 Made all the people coming down for the most time, 0:12:11.120 --> 0:12:13.720 I don't know, can't get a parking spot anymore. 0:12:13.640 --> 0:12:24.880 Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 0:12:24.880 --> 0:12:28.800 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 0:12:28.840 --> 0:12:32.240 starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 0:12:32.280 --> 0:12:35.240 with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live 0:12:35.320 --> 0:12:38.880 on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just 0:12:38.920 --> 0:12:41.439 say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:12:41.640 --> 0:12:44.360 She has been more than patient. Rayan Mittrion is a 0:12:44.480 --> 0:12:46.959 Callen Family Office schedule to be with us a few 0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:49.760 days ago, and there was this breaking news of that 0:12:49.840 --> 0:12:52.679 breaking news, and we had to say see her right now. 0:12:52.679 --> 0:12:56.280 We celebrate Ryan Mettrion with us. Do you have a 0:12:56.360 --> 0:13:00.960 clear vision Ryan, for Callen Family Office into next year? 0:13:03.640 --> 0:13:08.680 We're relatively optimistic. There's a lot to feel good about. 0:13:08.840 --> 0:13:12.160 I mean, earnings have been incredibly strong, you know, we're 0:13:12.200 --> 0:13:15.120 just wrapping up the fourth Street quarter of double digit earnings. 0:13:15.160 --> 0:13:15.480 Growth. 0:13:16.000 --> 0:13:20.320 Spending has been strong, especially obviously as related to AI, 0:13:20.600 --> 0:13:23.400 and that has been providing a huge tailwind to stocks. 0:13:23.440 --> 0:13:27.080 And we have a generally dubbish bed. So all of 0:13:27.120 --> 0:13:30.959 that helps us to think that we should still continue 0:13:31.000 --> 0:13:34.720 to see some upside possibility for equities going into next year. 0:13:34.880 --> 0:13:39.319 How does tech lead tech? 0:13:39.400 --> 0:13:42.120 I mean, tech has been incredibly strong right over the 0:13:42.200 --> 0:13:44.360 last couple of years, and we've seen this since the 0:13:44.400 --> 0:13:48.400 April lows and now we're getting a little bit of volatility, 0:13:48.480 --> 0:13:52.240 which is healthy, but there continues to be a lot 0:13:52.280 --> 0:13:54.280 of strength in that sector. I mean, we see these 0:13:54.360 --> 0:13:58.319 hyperscalers that are spending these incredible amounts of CAPEX to 0:13:59.040 --> 0:14:02.040 build out their AI infrastructure. That's going to have a 0:14:02.360 --> 0:14:06.120 huge demand, and really that's such a big part of 0:14:06.120 --> 0:14:09.280 the market that as long as those companies continue to 0:14:09.280 --> 0:14:11.640 do well and we see that demand held up, it 0:14:11.720 --> 0:14:13.640 should continue to help the tech side, don't you? 0:14:13.679 --> 0:14:16.120 Said Lori Keviscino was the interview of the day. I'm sorry, 0:14:16.200 --> 0:14:18.920 Ryan's killing it, Paul. I know because this is a 0:14:19.080 --> 0:14:24.400 tone I hear from people her in the trenches. Her 0:14:24.520 --> 0:14:28.480 belief and conviction in the market is a lot of 0:14:28.520 --> 0:14:30.080 what I hear of people. 0:14:30.080 --> 0:14:32.520 Well, she's a graduate of Vanderbilt, so she's riding high 0:14:32.520 --> 0:14:35.560 a long with Damian Sassar and the football team at Vanderbilt. 0:14:36.080 --> 0:14:38.560 But technology ran I'm just looking at your notes, and 0:14:38.600 --> 0:14:41.480 you laid out so clearly. In Vidia's eight percent of 0:14:41.520 --> 0:14:43.760 the S and P five hundred and megacap Tech is 0:14:43.800 --> 0:14:47.160 almost forty percent of the index. So if you're constructive 0:14:47.200 --> 0:14:49.400 on the market, you got to be constructive on tech. 0:14:49.480 --> 0:14:52.600 Is that kind of where you guys, are you really do? 0:14:52.720 --> 0:14:55.200 I mean, because if those companies are struggling, the broader 0:14:55.240 --> 0:14:58.320 market is going to struggle. Now that being said, we 0:14:58.360 --> 0:15:01.480 do want to have diversify exposure and we want to have, 0:15:01.880 --> 0:15:05.720 you know, investments in other areas as well, because these 0:15:05.760 --> 0:15:08.920 can can move the market so quickly, as we've certainly seen. 0:15:09.200 --> 0:15:11.600 But you have to have the exposure or you've been 0:15:11.640 --> 0:15:12.560 missing out. 0:15:13.640 --> 0:15:17.160 How else do we think about these equity marketchare ran 0:15:17.320 --> 0:15:21.680 outside of technology? Are there sectors that screenwall for you? 0:15:21.720 --> 0:15:23.920 Are there factors that screenwall for you? 0:15:25.840 --> 0:15:27.720 I mean, we want to have we want to. 0:15:27.680 --> 0:15:31.600 Have exposure exposure broadly. We've certainly seen tech do well. 0:15:31.640 --> 0:15:34.840 We've certainly seen utilities and industrials do well in their 0:15:34.880 --> 0:15:38.280 ties to all this data center spending. We want to 0:15:38.280 --> 0:15:42.760 have exposure to financials is another area. But I mean 0:15:42.800 --> 0:15:44.440 we want to we want to have exposure on the 0:15:44.520 --> 0:15:46.920 value side of things. We want to have small cap exposure, 0:15:46.960 --> 0:15:49.400 and we want to have international exposure. I mean international 0:15:49.480 --> 0:15:53.240 has really outperformed us so far this year, mostly due 0:15:53.240 --> 0:15:55.400 to a weeker dollar, but we do want to have 0:15:55.440 --> 0:15:56.880 exposure in all those areas. 0:15:57.160 --> 0:16:01.680 Uh Riyan mitre On with Ush's partnered Hell and Family Office, 0:16:02.120 --> 0:16:05.200 I'm curious into the you know, with all the success 0:16:05.240 --> 0:16:07.960 of this bull market at a family and office, do 0:16:08.000 --> 0:16:11.840 you have a pressure to over diversify or is it 0:16:12.040 --> 0:16:15.920 under diversification. We're the more focus, more bet on a 0:16:15.960 --> 0:16:20.200 given idea. You know, it really depends. 0:16:20.280 --> 0:16:23.080 We have the ability because we're working with ultra high 0:16:23.080 --> 0:16:26.760 net worth investors that really have a multi generational focus, 0:16:27.560 --> 0:16:30.360 so we can be more aggressive, we can take some 0:16:30.440 --> 0:16:34.160 of those bets because these clients don't necessarily need those 0:16:34.280 --> 0:16:36.840 funds near term because of the level of wealth that 0:16:36.880 --> 0:16:39.920 they have. But we do tend to diversify, and we 0:16:40.000 --> 0:16:43.120 have the ability to get into parts of the market 0:16:43.200 --> 0:16:46.680 that some traditional investors may not be able to get into. 0:16:46.920 --> 0:16:49.400 When you're looking at private markets and hedge funds and 0:16:49.440 --> 0:16:52.600 different types of things that allow us to complement our 0:16:52.640 --> 0:16:56.400 traditional portfolios. So that's been, you know, something that we 0:16:56.440 --> 0:16:59.600 can do, but it's I wouldn't say that there's pressure, 0:16:59.640 --> 0:17:01.760 but there's certainly a lot of opportunity, and we do 0:17:01.840 --> 0:17:02.880 believe in diversification. 0:17:03.160 --> 0:17:05.199 I mean, Paul, chastise me because I haven't brought this 0:17:05.320 --> 0:17:08.240 up today. If you brought in, if you bought in 0:17:08.320 --> 0:17:13.480 rather to public or private credit, I mean alternative investments 0:17:13.760 --> 0:17:15.520 or do you guys stay a mile wide of that. 0:17:16.920 --> 0:17:19.320 No, we certainly have exposure there. I mean, we do 0:17:19.359 --> 0:17:22.080 have traditional bond allocations. A lot of our investors are 0:17:22.080 --> 0:17:24.040 in high tax brackets, so a lot of it's in 0:17:24.200 --> 0:17:27.560 UNI bonds and UNI high yield, but we do we 0:17:27.600 --> 0:17:30.960 do invest in private credit, and there is a lot 0:17:30.960 --> 0:17:32.960 of hype around there, and you want to make sure 0:17:33.119 --> 0:17:35.480 if you're investing, that you're investing with the right firm 0:17:35.520 --> 0:17:39.080 in the right places because there could be some problems 0:17:39.119 --> 0:17:41.760 going forward in that area. As with any investment, you 0:17:41.840 --> 0:17:44.000 just want to make sure that you're with a high 0:17:44.119 --> 0:17:46.919 quality firm and that because there can be such a 0:17:46.920 --> 0:17:50.879 divergence in returns between the top and bottom quartile funds 0:17:50.920 --> 0:17:52.040 in that type of space. 0:17:53.040 --> 0:17:56.119 Ran your family office clients, what is their appetite for 0:17:56.280 --> 0:18:00.000 alternative investments? 0:18:00.240 --> 0:18:03.440 It varies, right, every investor is different, but our typical 0:18:03.560 --> 0:18:07.920 allocation would include between twenty and twenty five percent in alternatives, 0:18:07.920 --> 0:18:11.159 and that can be a small amount in hedge funds, 0:18:11.200 --> 0:18:16.120 some credit oriented strategies or diversified multistrat funds that give 0:18:16.200 --> 0:18:18.080 us different types of exposures that we can get in 0:18:18.119 --> 0:18:21.000 the traditional markets, and then rounding that out with private equity, 0:18:21.040 --> 0:18:22.880 private credit, private real estate. 0:18:22.760 --> 0:18:23.640 Things like that. 0:18:23.800 --> 0:18:26.320 I mean, historically you can get a three to five 0:18:26.359 --> 0:18:30.679 percent premium over traditional equity returns in private equity, and 0:18:30.800 --> 0:18:33.480 we have seen that it's additive to returns over time. 0:18:33.920 --> 0:18:35.680 Are you going to Vanderbilt, Tennessee? 0:18:36.600 --> 0:18:39.239 I mean, right, I wish I was. 0:18:39.520 --> 0:18:41.680 If ever there was a year, this is the year, right. 0:18:42.160 --> 0:18:44.120 You have to enjoy it well lasts. 0:18:44.200 --> 0:18:46.200 So it's been a fun season, that's for sure. 0:18:46.440 --> 0:18:48.440 Ran, thank you so much. Don't be a stranger. You 0:18:48.480 --> 0:18:51.280 love to have you back, ryand Mitreon with this Callum 0:18:51.359 --> 0:18:55.440 Family Office, stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming 0:18:55.520 --> 0:19:03.560 up after this. 0:19:03.560 --> 0:19:07.480 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 0:19:07.520 --> 0:19:10.560 starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Coarplay and Android 0:19:10.560 --> 0:19:13.600 Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen 0:19:13.680 --> 0:19:16.920 live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 0:19:17.480 --> 0:19:21.640 Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty a short visit. 0:19:21.600 --> 0:19:25.359 Right now with enterag Rana, which should be a long visit. 0:19:25.400 --> 0:19:29.600 He is definitive on cloud, definitive on what these companies 0:19:29.600 --> 0:19:33.440