1 00:00:02,440 --> 00:00:12,960 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:13,360 --> 00:00:15,760 Speaker 2: For years, the Federal reserves policy of lower rates for 3 00:00:15,840 --> 00:00:19,279 Speaker 2: longer helped fuel a bullmarket in stocks, and even now 4 00:00:19,360 --> 00:00:22,239 Speaker 2: after the Fed's rate high campaign to fight inflation, the 5 00:00:22,239 --> 00:00:25,600 Speaker 2: bullmarket keeps on running. It's all raising questions about the 6 00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:28,880 Speaker 2: future of short selling. So here now to share his perspective, 7 00:00:28,920 --> 00:00:32,519 Speaker 2: I'm pleased to say, is legendary short seller Jim Chainos, President, 8 00:00:32,560 --> 00:00:36,080 Speaker 2: managing partner and founder of Chinos and Company. Jim, great 9 00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:36,959 Speaker 2: to see you here in. 10 00:00:36,920 --> 00:00:39,080 Speaker 3: New York with us, Thanks for having me. You look 11 00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:40,000 Speaker 3: at the number. 12 00:00:39,720 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 2: Of short buys hedge funds as tracked by HFR, and 13 00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:47,560 Speaker 2: it's fallen dramatically from fifty something to fourteen now fifty 14 00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:50,440 Speaker 2: something in twenty eight and fourteen in about twenty twenty three, 15 00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:53,560 Speaker 2: twenty twenty four. How much does the rate environment overall 16 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:55,880 Speaker 2: contribute to the shrinking universe of short selling funds? 17 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:56,320 Speaker 3: Do you think? 18 00:00:56,760 --> 00:00:59,600 Speaker 4: I think the rate environment is probly the first or 19 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:03,880 Speaker 4: second derivative. I mean, it's really the ongoing persistence of 20 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 4: the bull market, which has now been fifteen years, and 21 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:10,760 Speaker 4: we saw something similar Scarlet in the late nineties, or 22 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 4: the number of short short biased funds by nineteen ninety 23 00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:19,480 Speaker 4: nine and two thousand really had dwindled to a handful 24 00:01:20,520 --> 00:01:22,400 Speaker 4: and people just got exasperated. 25 00:01:23,240 --> 00:01:24,880 Speaker 5: And that was right before. 26 00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:28,280 Speaker 4: There was really ten years from ninety nine to nine 27 00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:31,960 Speaker 4: of just fantastic returns on the short side and two 28 00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:35,480 Speaker 4: bear markets, of course, but I think that really it's 29 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:39,880 Speaker 4: the length of time beyond just FED policy, although FED 30 00:01:39,920 --> 00:01:41,800 Speaker 4: policy certainly had a lot to do with it in 31 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:42,759 Speaker 4: the last ten years. 32 00:01:43,080 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 3: Now, I introduced Chinos in company. 33 00:01:44,840 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 2: It's now a family office and advisory instead of a 34 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:50,200 Speaker 2: hedgepoint firm. Right you are investing in the market, though, 35 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:52,240 Speaker 2: I'm curious how you're investing in the market right now. 36 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:56,000 Speaker 4: Well, and we're advising clients. Look, this is the I 37 00:01:56,120 --> 00:02:01,280 Speaker 4: just advised a client on a putbas its strategy this afternoon, 38 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:05,120 Speaker 4: and right now, what we're seeing in the universe of 39 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:08,240 Speaker 4: companies we follow is probably as attractive at time as 40 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:10,880 Speaker 4: it was in first half of twenty twenty one. And 41 00:02:10,919 --> 00:02:13,680 Speaker 4: I've said publicly that twenty twenty one was the most 42 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:16,520 Speaker 4: stucket of market I've ever seen in my forty years 43 00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:20,760 Speaker 4: of forty five years of investing, and we're getting back 44 00:02:20,800 --> 00:02:23,160 Speaker 4: to that. Not quite there, but it's close. And you've 45 00:02:23,160 --> 00:02:26,240 Speaker 4: seen it with things like the meme stocks again and 46 00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:28,960 Speaker 4: my god, we're still we're starting to price backs again. 47 00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:32,400 Speaker 4: And noticed that three billion of SPACs price. 48 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 6: Does that give you ajata? Particularly the run up we 49 00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:36,639 Speaker 6: saw on Gamesop? And yeah, I means facts are somehow 50 00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:37,480 Speaker 6: trying to call their way up. 51 00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:40,320 Speaker 5: People have always said, well, what about the FED? 52 00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:44,239 Speaker 4: Per your first question? And I always said, we'll give 53 00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:46,320 Speaker 4: Wall Street enough time. The FED is not the only 54 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:48,840 Speaker 4: one with the printing press. Wall Street does a pretty 55 00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 4: good job at issuing pieces of paper when people really 56 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:52,760 Speaker 4: want them. 57 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:54,600 Speaker 6: I mean, how do you sort of navigate and you 58 00:02:54,600 --> 00:02:57,760 Speaker 6: talk about advising folks, you're advising people on a public market, 59 00:02:57,760 --> 00:02:59,760 Speaker 6: public equity market at least right now that is a 60 00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:02,320 Speaker 6: high at least on the SMP, on the NASAC. A 61 00:03:02,360 --> 00:03:05,040 Speaker 6: lot of people would look at historical valuations and say, 62 00:03:05,240 --> 00:03:06,480 Speaker 6: we're stretched here. 63 00:03:06,760 --> 00:03:08,720 Speaker 7: What is the advice you give in that situation? 64 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:12,160 Speaker 4: Well, since really the mid nineties, we ran our business 65 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:15,280 Speaker 4: where we were long equity markets, we were long indices 66 00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:18,760 Speaker 4: and then short our names. And I still think that 67 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:21,280 Speaker 4: makes a lot of sense. And where the stock market 68 00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:23,800 Speaker 4: is going, I have no idea. I started my firm 69 00:03:23,800 --> 00:03:26,160 Speaker 4: back in nineteen eighty five, that dial was thirteen hundred, 70 00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:27,320 Speaker 4: So that. 71 00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:29,320 Speaker 5: Should tell you something about timing. 72 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:33,160 Speaker 4: But the fact of the matter is is that with 73 00:03:33,320 --> 00:03:36,520 Speaker 4: the exception of the far right group of companies on 74 00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:40,440 Speaker 4: the bell curve, most companies underperformed the stock market over 75 00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:45,080 Speaker 4: time or failed. It's the nvidios or the teslas or 76 00:03:45,120 --> 00:03:48,040 Speaker 4: whatever on that far right end that go up quite 77 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 4: a lot that give you your returns. So the strategy 78 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 4: of being long equity markets broadly and short idiosyncratic names 79 00:03:56,840 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 4: I still think makes a lot of sense. And then finally, 80 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:02,000 Speaker 4: insurance is really cheap right now. I mean, you know, 81 00:04:02,080 --> 00:04:04,840 Speaker 4: people insure their homes, they ensure their cars, they ensure 82 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:08,040 Speaker 4: their loved ones. It's pretty cheap right now to insure 83 00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:08,800 Speaker 4: a portfolio. 84 00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:10,360 Speaker 8: Is AI in a bubble? 85 00:04:11,240 --> 00:04:12,120 Speaker 5: I have no idea. 86 00:04:13,000 --> 00:04:14,080 Speaker 3: You know, you lived through bubbles. 87 00:04:14,600 --> 00:04:15,520 Speaker 5: I go af through bubbles. 88 00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:19,080 Speaker 4: I'll make one observation as it relates to AI. So 89 00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:22,320 Speaker 4: if you go back and look at the US economy 90 00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:25,560 Speaker 4: in the immediate post Internet age, and I think we 91 00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:27,960 Speaker 4: can all agree the Internet changed our lives in a 92 00:04:28,200 --> 00:04:34,080 Speaker 4: major way. From nineteen ninety eight to seven, the US 93 00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:40,680 Speaker 4: economy grew at three percent real annually. From nineteen eighty 94 00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:43,640 Speaker 4: eight to nineteen ninety seven, the ten years prior to 95 00:04:43,720 --> 00:04:46,680 Speaker 4: really the advent of the Internet to the public, the 96 00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:50,400 Speaker 4: economy grew by three percent annually. The internet had no 97 00:04:50,520 --> 00:04:53,320 Speaker 4: impact on growth. Now it had a lot of impact 98 00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:56,720 Speaker 4: on individual companies. Getting back to my point, right, there 99 00:04:56,720 --> 00:05:01,360 Speaker 4: were big, big winners and big big losers. And I 100 00:05:01,400 --> 00:05:04,000 Speaker 4: suspect if AI is going to be as transformational as 101 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:05,719 Speaker 4: people think it is, and I have no idea whether 102 00:05:05,760 --> 00:05:06,400 Speaker 4: it will be or not. 103 00:05:07,920 --> 00:05:09,680 Speaker 5: They'll be big winners and they'll be big Okay. 104 00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:11,160 Speaker 7: I just want to follow up on that though, too. 105 00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:12,919 Speaker 6: And this kind of leads back to the question with 106 00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:17,640 Speaker 6: Scarlett's started off with about the connection between macroeconomic conditions 107 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:20,200 Speaker 6: and our markets today, and there does seem to be 108 00:05:20,240 --> 00:05:21,000 Speaker 6: a disconnect. 109 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:25,360 Speaker 4: Yeah, I wouldn't disagree with that, and I think there 110 00:05:25,400 --> 00:05:28,640 Speaker 4: is a much more specuative nature of this market. 111 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:30,280 Speaker 5: And we started to. 112 00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:34,000 Speaker 4: See it in late twenty nineteen when commission rates cut 113 00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:37,280 Speaker 4: to zero and retail began to come back in the 114 00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:39,200 Speaker 4: market in a big way in ways they hadn't been 115 00:05:39,240 --> 00:05:41,880 Speaker 4: in prior to that. They've been investing in ETFs or 116 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:45,000 Speaker 4: mutual funds or what have you, and we began to 117 00:05:45,000 --> 00:05:49,440 Speaker 4: see pre pandemic speculation and individual names really pick up. 118 00:05:49,480 --> 00:05:52,400 Speaker 4: And then of course post pandemic it took off and 119 00:05:52,440 --> 00:05:54,400 Speaker 4: we're still you can see it in option volumes and 120 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:57,159 Speaker 4: a lot of other sort of quantitative measures that the 121 00:05:57,200 --> 00:05:58,840 Speaker 4: public is in this stock market in. 122 00:05:58,800 --> 00:05:59,320 Speaker 5: A big way. 123 00:06:00,680 --> 00:06:04,560 Speaker 4: That really then means that you have to change your 124 00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:07,720 Speaker 4: risk parameters, change the size of your short bets if 125 00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:10,599 Speaker 4: you will, and be mindful of the game stops and 126 00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:14,680 Speaker 4: those kinds of things. On the other hand, generally they 127 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 4: chase momentum and sometimes quite frankly, silly stories, and if 128 00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:21,960 Speaker 4: you want to be investing, you don't want to be 129 00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:22,479 Speaker 4: doing that. 130 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:25,480 Speaker 8: If you were looking at the AI story, and I 131 00:06:25,480 --> 00:06:27,839 Speaker 8: guess you can't say it's a bubble, but it's spread 132 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:30,680 Speaker 8: out in lots of different parts. Right, Utilities have been up, 133 00:06:30,680 --> 00:06:32,560 Speaker 8: power has been up, your hardware coming up, You've got 134 00:06:32,600 --> 00:06:35,800 Speaker 8: software like it's like the tentacles are moving out. How 135 00:06:35,839 --> 00:06:37,479 Speaker 8: do you think about something like that, like, how do 136 00:06:37,520 --> 00:06:38,960 Speaker 8: you well, we look for. 137 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:42,279 Speaker 4: I mean, when we look for companies in our world 138 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:46,240 Speaker 4: that have gotten the benefit of an AI kiss but 139 00:06:46,360 --> 00:06:49,039 Speaker 4: are actually going to lose because of AI. So we've 140 00:06:49,080 --> 00:06:53,200 Speaker 4: been publicly short the data centers, the legacy data centers, 141 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:57,640 Speaker 4: because they literally are not designed for AI chips. They 142 00:06:57,680 --> 00:07:01,400 Speaker 4: have to basically be retooled completely, and all of the 143 00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:04,480 Speaker 4: infrastructure and hardware in a data center an old one 144 00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:07,960 Speaker 4: is not compatible with the new chips. So people if 145 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:10,680 Speaker 4: did the stocks up thinking their AI place, they're actually 146 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:13,880 Speaker 4: losers from AI. And it gets back to the winners 147 00:07:13,880 --> 00:07:14,720 Speaker 4: and losers. 148 00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 3: Thing we mentioned spack companies a little bit earlier. 149 00:07:17,520 --> 00:07:20,240 Speaker 2: I'm wondering if you were trading around the elections at all, 150 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:23,920 Speaker 2: what my aid Donald Trump victory in November, for instance, 151 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:26,679 Speaker 2: mean for regulation and would that, as a result, perhaps 152 00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:31,000 Speaker 2: create more opportunities to be short companies because you know, 153 00:07:31,040 --> 00:07:33,880 Speaker 2: with the regulatory heat taken off, companies can do all 154 00:07:33,960 --> 00:07:36,160 Speaker 2: kinds of things and speculative fever goes up. 155 00:07:36,360 --> 00:07:39,240 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean it's hard to bet, basically if unless 156 00:07:39,280 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 4: you know who's going to win. Yeah, it seems like 157 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:43,880 Speaker 4: I still think it's gonna be a pretty close election. 158 00:07:45,080 --> 00:07:49,920 Speaker 4: And obviously there's certain areas that each party would would 159 00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:55,080 Speaker 4: emphasize and de emphasize. Again, some areas that were already 160 00:07:55,160 --> 00:07:58,600 Speaker 4: negative on, like solar would probably lose under Donald Trump. 161 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:06,160 Speaker 4: But but it's hard to know exactly, particularly if the 162 00:08:06,200 --> 00:08:08,360 Speaker 4: polls are right that it's still a pretty tight election. 163 00:08:08,560 --> 00:08:10,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, and of course he's a booster for all kinds 164 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:12,920 Speaker 2: of companies, including his own spack. 165 00:08:13,200 --> 00:08:13,920 Speaker 3: You've been very. 166 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:18,800 Speaker 2: Vocal about how irrational retail day traders are, how much 167 00:08:18,840 --> 00:08:23,200 Speaker 2: kind of charismatic influencer like Roaring Kitty aka deep fing 168 00:08:23,280 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 2: Value and you know what's his actual name, Keith Gill, 169 00:08:25,960 --> 00:08:29,720 Speaker 2: and an army of day traders keep this GameStop dream alive. 170 00:08:29,880 --> 00:08:31,480 Speaker 2: I mean from where you sit and look at it, 171 00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:33,200 Speaker 2: at some point it comes crashing down, does it not? 172 00:08:33,360 --> 00:08:35,240 Speaker 5: Well, it already has. I mean, so if you look 173 00:08:35,280 --> 00:08:35,559 Speaker 5: at the. 174 00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:37,280 Speaker 3: Meme, there's little blips here and there. 175 00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:41,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, But if you look at the memestock class of 176 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:45,720 Speaker 4: twenty twenty one, which was GameStop AMC, B, BEF and beyond, 177 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 4: you know a number of others. I mean, with the 178 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:52,439 Speaker 4: exception of game Stop, they are all down ninety ninety 179 00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:57,559 Speaker 4: five ninety nine percent. It was a disaster for retail investors, 180 00:08:57,640 --> 00:09:01,400 Speaker 4: quite frankly, and so I think that that it gets 181 00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:04,000 Speaker 4: to my point that you don't want to be chasing 182 00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:06,800 Speaker 4: this stuff if there's no fundamentals behind it, and I 183 00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:10,240 Speaker 4: have no position in game Stop, but people are still 184 00:09:10,800 --> 00:09:14,440 Speaker 4: valuing that company. If we're going to value business at 185 00:09:14,720 --> 00:09:16,960 Speaker 4: three times, it's cash, and even though it's raised all 186 00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 4: this cash, it's got about nine dollars of sharing cash 187 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:22,000 Speaker 4: right now per share. I think the stock's at twenty 188 00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:24,920 Speaker 4: five or twenty six or twenty seven, And so you 189 00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:28,840 Speaker 4: have to believe the business has something or there's option 190 00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:32,520 Speaker 4: value to the cash, which is what people believe that 191 00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:35,480 Speaker 4: Ryan Colm to be able to do something that's really 192 00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:37,640 Speaker 4: hard to do when you're paying three dollars for a 193 00:09:37,679 --> 00:09:41,360 Speaker 4: dollar of cash. And again, so you're chasing the future, 194 00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:44,680 Speaker 4: you're chasing the story. In bull markets, the future gets 195 00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:47,880 Speaker 4: a premium. In bear markets, reality gets a discount. 196 00:09:48,240 --> 00:09:50,560 Speaker 6: Well, when we talk about that premium, particularly when it 197 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:52,320 Speaker 6: comes a game Stop in some of those meeting socks, 198 00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:54,760 Speaker 6: let's talk about the other potentially on the other side 199 00:09:54,800 --> 00:09:56,920 Speaker 6: of that trade, which is sort of the short positions. 200 00:09:56,920 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 6: We saw that in twenty twenty one, where at the 201 00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:00,560 Speaker 6: short interest went through the room. If we're not seeing 202 00:10:00,600 --> 00:10:03,600 Speaker 6: that necessarily as aggressively this time the opposite. But yeah, 203 00:10:03,600 --> 00:10:05,120 Speaker 6: but part of that reason is because there aren't a 204 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:06,840 Speaker 6: lot of folks like you doing this anymore. 205 00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:08,200 Speaker 7: A lot of those folks got scared off. 206 00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:10,040 Speaker 6: Obviously we know happened to gay block in and a 207 00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 6: little bit earlier we were just talking about Andrew Left 208 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:14,000 Speaker 6: who had a short position in Game Stop, but even 209 00:10:14,000 --> 00:10:14,719 Speaker 6: he closed that out. 210 00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:15,200 Speaker 5: Yeah. 211 00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:19,319 Speaker 4: Well again, when you just look at the numbers, overall, 212 00:10:19,320 --> 00:10:21,959 Speaker 4: short interest is down, as you allude to. But take 213 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:23,960 Speaker 4: a look at Game Stoff again, just to use this example. 214 00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:28,000 Speaker 4: So a week or so ago, ten days ago, short 215 00:10:28,040 --> 00:10:31,040 Speaker 4: interest was twenty two percent of the outstanding or of 216 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:35,000 Speaker 4: the float. Today it's eleven percent. A. The short interest 217 00:10:35,040 --> 00:10:38,439 Speaker 4: went down. B. They issued a lot of shares, getting 218 00:10:38,480 --> 00:10:42,720 Speaker 4: back to my point about issuance, so the supply increased 219 00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:44,280 Speaker 4: and not a share. 220 00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:46,679 Speaker 5: So now it's not a short story anymore. The shorts 221 00:10:46,679 --> 00:10:47,320 Speaker 5: aren't trapped. 222 00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:50,760 Speaker 4: In January of twenty twenty one, I think the short 223 00:10:50,760 --> 00:10:52,960 Speaker 4: interest was one hundred and forty percent of out standing. 224 00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:56,040 Speaker 5: Yeah, and now it's eleven. It's a big difference. 225 00:10:56,120 --> 00:10:57,760 Speaker 7: Okay, so maybe that's not a target. 226 00:10:57,800 --> 00:11:00,760 Speaker 6: Is there sort of a market or more important, appetite 227 00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:03,439 Speaker 6: for that sort of short seller's playbook a playbook that 228 00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:06,040 Speaker 6: you made famous and it just doesn't seem like there 229 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:08,480 Speaker 6: are sort of new channels is coming around the corner 230 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:09,720 Speaker 6: in this space anymore. 231 00:11:09,760 --> 00:11:10,640 Speaker 7: How do you feel about that? 232 00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:14,720 Speaker 5: I don't know, you know, af for forty five years. 233 00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:16,480 Speaker 5: I don't wish that on anyone. 234 00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:19,960 Speaker 8: Maybe people want to aspire to that, right, Like, are 235 00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:21,040 Speaker 8: there players in the market. 236 00:11:21,160 --> 00:11:23,560 Speaker 4: There's some really good there's some really good people on 237 00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:25,640 Speaker 4: the short side out there that are doing great work. 238 00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:28,400 Speaker 4: And the folks at Hindenburg I'm a big fan of 239 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:31,560 Speaker 4: and others, and you know, we never did the short 240 00:11:31,600 --> 00:11:36,080 Speaker 4: activist model, but the work they're doing is is I think, 241 00:11:36,320 --> 00:11:39,080 Speaker 4: you know, the fundamental work, which is what I look 242 00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:42,520 Speaker 4: at when I look at people's work, is really first rate. 243 00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:45,439 Speaker 4: And so it's out there. And I've called this the 244 00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:48,600 Speaker 4: golden age of frauds. So there's just so many companies, 245 00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:52,560 Speaker 4: so many companies now that are playing games that are 246 00:11:52,640 --> 00:11:54,520 Speaker 4: that are trying and take advantage of investors. 247 00:11:54,520 --> 00:11:55,840 Speaker 5: So we need short sellers. 248 00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:55,960 Speaker 4: More than ever. 249 00:11:56,240 --> 00:11:58,160 Speaker 2: We need short sellers more than ever. But the government's 250 00:11:58,160 --> 00:12:01,360 Speaker 2: cracking down on all of them. Right This ongoing investigation 251 00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:04,960 Speaker 2: into activist truth sellers has resulted in its first charge. 252 00:12:05,000 --> 00:12:08,200 Speaker 2: I believe ants and funds and ants and advisors. We're 253 00:12:08,200 --> 00:12:11,680 Speaker 2: accused of hiding payments to bearish researchers. This disclosure issue 254 00:12:11,679 --> 00:12:13,719 Speaker 2: really disclosure is but it's something right. 255 00:12:13,760 --> 00:12:14,600 Speaker 5: Yeah, I think. 256 00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:17,800 Speaker 4: That that was the issue and we were never involved 257 00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:19,240 Speaker 4: with that and we were never that was never part 258 00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:22,920 Speaker 4: of our business model. But I think that the issue 259 00:12:22,960 --> 00:12:25,679 Speaker 4: that the government was worried about in the SEC and 260 00:12:26,520 --> 00:12:32,160 Speaker 4: possibly justice was disclosure. Were there people funding these things 261 00:12:32,200 --> 00:12:35,240 Speaker 4: that was not disclosed that should have been I could 262 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:39,480 Speaker 4: argue that legally, but I think that was really what 263 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:41,960 Speaker 4: the issue is was where the third party is involved 264 00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:44,360 Speaker 4: in funding this that should have been disclosed or not. 265 00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:44,800 Speaker 3: Yeah. 266 00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:47,160 Speaker 2: It goes back to that idea that there's a lot 267 00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:51,600 Speaker 2: of ways to make money. Short Selling is complicated, it's expensive, 268 00:12:51,720 --> 00:12:53,840 Speaker 2: and it's certainly in a risky way because your downside 269 00:12:54,120 --> 00:12:54,880 Speaker 2: is unlimited. 270 00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:56,920 Speaker 3: You shut down your hedge funds last year. 271 00:12:57,520 --> 00:12:59,720 Speaker 2: Yet, given where we are in this market cycle, you say, 272 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:01,880 Speaker 2: in the golden age of fraud, this might be a 273 00:13:01,880 --> 00:13:05,520 Speaker 2: good time for short strategies in terms of performance. Do 274 00:13:05,559 --> 00:13:07,680 Speaker 2: you see it getting a little bit easier to raise 275 00:13:07,679 --> 00:13:09,960 Speaker 2: capital from institutional investors. 276 00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:13,480 Speaker 4: It's harder, Yeah, and that's part of why the opportunity 277 00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:16,880 Speaker 4: set is there, nobody wants to do it, and so 278 00:13:16,960 --> 00:13:20,760 Speaker 4: I think that that's what's so interesting. And of course 279 00:13:20,800 --> 00:13:23,520 Speaker 4: you have the growth in the platform companies, the so 280 00:13:23,600 --> 00:13:26,680 Speaker 4: called pod shops, so a lot of short selling is 281 00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:30,440 Speaker 4: done through those vehicles in terms of dollar value. They've 282 00:13:30,480 --> 00:13:33,080 Speaker 4: certainly supplanted the long short world in a major way, 283 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:36,720 Speaker 4: but with tighter risk models, so we see more volatility 284 00:13:36,760 --> 00:13:42,640 Speaker 4: and sometimes because those platform companies keep short positions small 285 00:13:43,040 --> 00:13:44,839 Speaker 4: and if they move against you a certain. 286 00:13:44,559 --> 00:13:46,560 Speaker 5: Amount, you're out. But bybab the way that works on 287 00:13:46,559 --> 00:13:47,360 Speaker 5: the alongside too. 288 00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:49,920 Speaker 6: But do you think though that long short strategy might 289 00:13:49,960 --> 00:13:53,559 Speaker 6: actually have some value at some point in time? Absolutely, 290 00:13:53,559 --> 00:13:55,040 Speaker 6: because I mean we talk about this idea. I mean, 291 00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:56,720 Speaker 6: you can't have a market that's all long. I mean, 292 00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:57,920 Speaker 6: that doesn't work forever. 293 00:13:57,720 --> 00:13:58,160 Speaker 4: Does it. 294 00:13:58,400 --> 00:13:58,959 Speaker 5: I don't think so. 295 00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:02,480 Speaker 4: Okay, I said, we have forty years of forty years 296 00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:06,680 Speaker 4: of almost that of numbers that kind of proved that wrong. 297 00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:09,840 Speaker 7: Yeah, pretty much, straight up market. 298 00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:13,319 Speaker 4: So I think that that again, as long as you're 299 00:14:13,320 --> 00:14:16,280 Speaker 4: doing your work and don't focus on the short term 300 00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:19,480 Speaker 4: and understand that a dollar is not worth three dollars 301 00:14:20,240 --> 00:14:22,840 Speaker 4: and you shouldn't pay three dollars for it and if 302 00:14:22,880 --> 00:14:24,600 Speaker 4: you can sell it for four dollars, it's maybe not 303 00:14:24,640 --> 00:14:27,360 Speaker 4: a bad trade. I think they'll always be real. 304 00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:29,960 Speaker 6: I was having a conversation with a long short manager 305 00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:31,800 Speaker 6: and she kind of pointed out this idea of, at 306 00:14:31,880 --> 00:14:35,080 Speaker 6: least in her mind, that price transparency or price discovery 307 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:37,400 Speaker 6: was not as easy as it used to be, so 308 00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:38,000 Speaker 6: that made the. 309 00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:39,320 Speaker 7: Strategy a little bit harder. 310 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:42,000 Speaker 6: And she pens some of that on the distortions coming 311 00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:44,960 Speaker 6: out of the private markets, the idea that private markets 312 00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:47,160 Speaker 6: have stolen a lot of thunder from public markets. You 313 00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:50,040 Speaker 6: don't necessarily have the same balance or equilibrium in private 314 00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:52,440 Speaker 6: markets in public markets that you had in the past. 315 00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:54,600 Speaker 5: That's an interesting theory. 316 00:14:55,840 --> 00:14:59,240 Speaker 4: I have not considered that private markets would impact the 317 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:02,040 Speaker 4: short side that way. I mean, I think the private markets, 318 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:04,240 Speaker 4: the growth in private markets has had a lot more 319 00:15:04,280 --> 00:15:07,640 Speaker 4: to do with capital raising, particularly in the public market arena, 320 00:15:07,640 --> 00:15:10,680 Speaker 4: including long short. You know, I sit on a couple 321 00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:13,280 Speaker 4: of investment committees and we've been doing nothing but redeeming 322 00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:16,720 Speaker 4: hedge funds and giving it to private private equity, private credit, 323 00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:20,280 Speaker 4: And in my own view, I think that's not the 324 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:23,320 Speaker 4: right thing to be doing right now. I think that 325 00:15:23,680 --> 00:15:25,880 Speaker 4: wherever you see a flood of money. For years and 326 00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:28,760 Speaker 4: years and years, it's been pretty much you're not going 327 00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:30,760 Speaker 4: to get the outsized returns that you had ten or 328 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:31,480 Speaker 4: twenty years ago. 329 00:15:31,640 --> 00:15:33,480 Speaker 8: And let's circle back to individual stocks. 330 00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:35,320 Speaker 3: Why don't you like solar stocks? 331 00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:36,880 Speaker 5: I don't like solar stocks. 332 00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:39,240 Speaker 4: I don't like the residential solar stocks because the business 333 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:42,760 Speaker 4: model doesn't work no matter what rates do. The concept 334 00:15:42,760 --> 00:15:45,760 Speaker 4: of putting up panels on someone's roof and then leasing 335 00:15:45,800 --> 00:15:47,960 Speaker 4: it from that company. If you just look at the 336 00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:50,760 Speaker 4: numbers of the companies that are in that business, like 337 00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:54,520 Speaker 4: sun Roun or Sonova or whatever, they're just they bleed 338 00:15:54,560 --> 00:15:59,120 Speaker 4: cash and they use accounting constructs to tell you why 339 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:02,680 Speaker 4: it's really and meanwhile they're just burning hundreds of millions 340 00:16:02,720 --> 00:16:04,280 Speaker 4: of dollars per quarter and have. 341 00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:05,920 Speaker 5: Been for years and years and years. 342 00:16:06,400 --> 00:16:09,840 Speaker 4: And I think that that that is uh is just 343 00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 4: simply an accounting story. 344 00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:15,360 Speaker 8: What else don't you like? I mean like it's it's 345 00:16:15,360 --> 00:16:16,920 Speaker 8: interesting to get your take because all our thoughts have 346 00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:17,320 Speaker 8: been on a. 347 00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:19,720 Speaker 5: Tear the last last couple of weeks. 348 00:16:19,800 --> 00:16:22,320 Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, they were actually beating new loads just last month, 349 00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:27,360 Speaker 4: and so they bounced because of the view on rates. 350 00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:30,040 Speaker 5: Well, we're not going to talk about the Tesla shareholders. 351 00:16:30,560 --> 00:16:33,840 Speaker 7: Yeah, yeah, yeah. 352 00:16:35,040 --> 00:16:36,080 Speaker 8: You're taken away my father. 353 00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:38,720 Speaker 3: I asked you that behind that. 354 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:43,760 Speaker 4: We don't like the data centers, and haven't We've been 355 00:16:43,760 --> 00:16:46,040 Speaker 4: public on that for for a long long time. I'm 356 00:16:46,120 --> 00:16:49,760 Speaker 4: puzzled by the number of restaurants that are trading at 357 00:16:49,880 --> 00:16:56,360 Speaker 4: absolutely insane valuations in industry that you know ultimately is 358 00:16:56,520 --> 00:17:02,760 Speaker 4: uh is not a secular growth business. You can find 359 00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:06,800 Speaker 4: stocks of fifty times cash flow and one hundred times earnings, 360 00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:10,480 Speaker 4: and there's lots of companies that are kind of mundane 361 00:17:10,920 --> 00:17:14,560 Speaker 4: that have been bought by growth managers, where the returns 362 00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:17,399 Speaker 4: on capital low, that are treading at fifty sixty, seventy 363 00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:20,720 Speaker 4: eighty times earnings, and you can find them. There are 364 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:23,359 Speaker 4: a lot of them, and so it's a it's a 365 00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:26,479 Speaker 4: pretty target rich environment right now if you're doing fundamental work. 366 00:17:26,440 --> 00:17:28,920 Speaker 7: And I'm sorry, did he answer the question on that flow? 367 00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:29,320 Speaker 4: No? 368 00:17:30,840 --> 00:17:34,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, Tesla is holding into annual general meeting tomorrow, 369 00:17:35,080 --> 00:17:38,160 Speaker 2: and you were famously short Tesla at a time when 370 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:39,760 Speaker 2: it basically defied gravity. 371 00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:41,320 Speaker 3: We know that shareholders are going to be. 372 00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:44,840 Speaker 2: Voting on Elon Musk's fifty six billion dollar pay package, 373 00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:46,800 Speaker 2: not from this year, not from last year, but from 374 00:17:46,840 --> 00:17:47,680 Speaker 2: a couple of years ago. 375 00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:50,440 Speaker 3: What is that emblematic of? What does that tell you? 376 00:17:50,920 --> 00:17:54,560 Speaker 4: Well, first of all, it might shock some of your viewers, 377 00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:57,600 Speaker 4: but I tweeted out a week ago, I actually think 378 00:17:57,840 --> 00:18:01,320 Speaker 4: that people should vote for the package. Really yeah, I think, 379 00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:04,879 Speaker 4: even though I'm a bear on Tesla, I think a 380 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:06,680 Speaker 4: deal is a deal, even if it's a bad deal 381 00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:11,680 Speaker 4: and they agreed to it. Now the judge has made 382 00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:14,480 Speaker 4: even if they voted in again, that doesn't mean it 383 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:15,000 Speaker 4: may happen. 384 00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:17,800 Speaker 5: It may not obviate the ruling. 385 00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:20,280 Speaker 4: But I do think a deal is a deal and 386 00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:24,359 Speaker 4: that if you voted for it, that he should get it. 387 00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:27,760 Speaker 5: Having said that, you know, the value of the package. 388 00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:29,679 Speaker 4: Is in excess of all the retained earnings of the 389 00:18:29,720 --> 00:18:33,480 Speaker 4: company's ever made, even post package. And the one thing 390 00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:36,600 Speaker 4: I mentioned I pointed out today, the one thing I've 391 00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:38,560 Speaker 4: been scratching my head on and going back and looking 392 00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:40,400 Speaker 4: at this package from twenty eighteen. 393 00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:43,240 Speaker 5: Was that the. 394 00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:49,040 Speaker 4: Deal was continued on hitting certain numbers and the stock 395 00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:50,440 Speaker 4: price hitting certain values. 396 00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:53,639 Speaker 5: But what they didn't. 397 00:18:53,400 --> 00:18:57,399 Speaker 4: Do was make each trunch the equity the new Equity 398 00:18:57,440 --> 00:19:00,920 Speaker 4: Award that he got for doing that right price of 399 00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:04,560 Speaker 4: that option at the stock price at that moment. All 400 00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:08,000 Speaker 4: of the equity for all of the tronchas was set 401 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:12,040 Speaker 4: at the original price, which was twenty three dollars adjusted. 402 00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:12,200 Speaker 5: For the split. 403 00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:17,159 Speaker 4: So that is means there's really no clawback provision. And 404 00:19:17,359 --> 00:19:19,800 Speaker 4: basically it means if the stock goes up a lot 405 00:19:19,880 --> 00:19:23,080 Speaker 4: and then goes down a lot, he still wins. The 406 00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:26,359 Speaker 4: shareholders don't necessarily win. In fact, I think the stock 407 00:19:26,359 --> 00:19:29,200 Speaker 4: price is below where he earned the last trancho already. 408 00:19:29,359 --> 00:19:32,040 Speaker 4: So it's a little bit like a hedge fund manager saying, Okay, well, 409 00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:34,480 Speaker 4: I was up forty percent at midyear and then gave 410 00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:36,360 Speaker 4: it all back in the second half of the year, 411 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:38,840 Speaker 4: but you should compensate me on the fact that, you know, 412 00:19:39,119 --> 00:19:42,080 Speaker 4: I was up a lot at one point, and so 413 00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:46,119 Speaker 4: that's the one aspect of the package I think shareholders 414 00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:48,560 Speaker 4: should really, you know, be kind of kicking themselves on. 415 00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:51,040 Speaker 4: I think that the tranchas should have been set at 416 00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:54,320 Speaker 4: each point at which the stock price had to go to. 417 00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:57,200 Speaker 4: But having said that, I mean, I think he should 418 00:19:57,240 --> 00:19:59,360 Speaker 4: get it. I'm not a big fan of Eline. There's 419 00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:01,880 Speaker 4: no surprise of that, but a deal is a deal. 420 00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:07,080 Speaker 4: It is, however, a very expensive deal for the shareholders. 421 00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:10,800 Speaker 4: And what does it mean about going forward? What's going 422 00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:11,760 Speaker 4: to be the next demand? 423 00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:13,720 Speaker 6: Do you think it would be better though if they structure. 424 00:20:13,720 --> 00:20:15,520 Speaker 6: I mean, I know they can't really restructure. They can, 425 00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:17,320 Speaker 6: but if they try to restructure it would it be 426 00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:19,679 Speaker 6: better to sort of make some of those metrics tied 427 00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:22,400 Speaker 6: to the performance of the company itself, not necessarily a stock, 428 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:23,320 Speaker 6: but I'm talking about. 429 00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:26,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, it was both, So the award was tied to both, 430 00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:30,919 Speaker 4: and it was various formulas. Look, anytime you tie it 431 00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:34,920 Speaker 4: highly to stock, it's problematic because you run the risk 432 00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:38,120 Speaker 4: of someone being overly promotional to get paid and then 433 00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:41,240 Speaker 4: worrying about it later. And I've often said that lavish 434 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:46,240 Speaker 4: stock option programs are undervalued in the marketplace in terms 435 00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:49,720 Speaker 4: of their expense, because if you don't, if you have 436 00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:53,600 Speaker 4: a board that's very acquiescent and that's Tesla, and you 437 00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:58,600 Speaker 4: don't get fired for aggressive risky behavior. If you engage 438 00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:01,760 Speaker 4: in risky behavior to get lots of stock option payouts 439 00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:05,320 Speaker 4: and it doesn't work, it actually becomes in your self 440 00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:08,240 Speaker 4: interest to have the stock price go down so you 441 00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:10,960 Speaker 4: can reload at lower prices. So in effect, when you've 442 00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:14,199 Speaker 4: issued call options to an executive in that case, you've 443 00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:16,640 Speaker 4: also issued them put options. And a lot of people 444 00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:20,280 Speaker 4: don't realize that, and so I think that it makes 445 00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:24,320 Speaker 4: share based compensation problematic for that reason and also for 446 00:21:24,359 --> 00:21:27,400 Speaker 4: the reason that everybody simply adds it back for adjusted earnings, 447 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:30,760 Speaker 4: which is another accounting game being played. 448 00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:33,160 Speaker 7: Yeah, rumber gap, those are the good old days, Jim, 449 00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:34,159 Speaker 7: You're going to have to leave it. 450 00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:34,360 Speaker 5: There. 451 00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:37,720 Speaker 6: A great conversation here with Jim Chanos, the President, managing 452 00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:41,200 Speaker 6: partner and founder of the Family Office and Advisory Channels 453 00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:42,080 Speaker 6: and company