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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's me Joey Pa.

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Speaker 1: Joe P's a pea. And it was just your typical

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Speaker 1: Sunday in the NFL, where Justin Fields went out and

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Speaker 1: had an all World rushing day instet a record for

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Speaker 1: rushing yards at quarterbacks, Joe Mixon had five touchdowns, Aaron

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Speaker 1: Rodgers and the Packers lost to the Lions, and Kirk

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Speaker 1: Cousins is apparently now a rapper named Young Couzy. And

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Speaker 1: we are about to turn the page and look ahead,

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Speaker 1: you know, because it was just normal sundays, you know.

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Speaker 1: Oh wait, and the Jets beat the Bill. That's right.

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Speaker 1: But before we can look ahead, we've got to look

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Speaker 1: back a little bit. And we've got a few friends

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Speaker 1: here as always, Pat fitz Morris, Matthew Friedman here to

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Speaker 1: help us do just that. And wasn't week nine a

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Speaker 1: wonderful lesson Pat fitz Morris before we turn the page

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Speaker 1: to week ten, about the discipline of looking at the

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Speaker 1: home underdogs and no matter how ugly it is, holding

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Speaker 1: your nose and doing the right thing.

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Speaker 2: Yes, it was, Joe, And as I mentioned on last

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Speaker 2: week's show, seeing that there were eight home underdogs, and

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Speaker 2: a thirteen game slate. I just committed to betting one

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Speaker 2: unit on every home underdog and it worked out pretty well.

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Speaker 2: And that's the thing you can't if you're gonna do it,

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Speaker 2: you got to commit to it. Take every home underdog,

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Speaker 2: because if you pick and choose, you're gonna pick and

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Speaker 2: choose the wrong ones. I mean, betting on the Jets,

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Speaker 2: even getting those eleven points or whatever, it was felt gross,

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Speaker 2: but look what happened.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 2: I'm regretting not having taken the money line. And you

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Speaker 2: know I would have just taken a week's vacation. You

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Speaker 2: guys would be doing the show by yourself. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I mean, I'm almost sad there aren't as many home

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Speaker 2: underdogs on the Week ten slate.

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Speaker 1: Any regrets that you didn't have enough home underdogs in

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Speaker 1: your betting slip yesterday?

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Speaker 4: Not so much.

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Speaker 5: Regret on that. It was a It was a good week.

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Speaker 5: I went eight four and one. But I do have

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Speaker 5: some regrets on the manual adjustments I made because there

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Speaker 5: were some really big spreads last week, and you know

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Speaker 5: I have I had some value on Houston, I had

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Speaker 5: some value on the Jets, I had some value on

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Speaker 5: the Titans, and it was just like nope, like I'm

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Speaker 5: behind the market. I'm probably a little bit wrong. I'm

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Speaker 5: going to regress closer to the market with these numbers

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Speaker 5: just so we're more in line. And I wish I

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Speaker 5: had been just a little bit stronger in the projections

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Speaker 5: we had because our projections were actually right.

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Speaker 4: So it was a good week. It could have been

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Speaker 4: a great week.

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Speaker 1: As we turn the page now officially two week ten,

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Speaker 1: don't forget. If you're looking for some more action, you

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Speaker 1: over under game. It's super simple and you choose the

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Speaker 1: amount of money that you want to enter into the contest,

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Speaker 1: and if you pick correctly, you can win anywhere from

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Speaker 1: So let's kick things off Week ten. The Atlanta Falcons

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Speaker 1: four and five take on the Carolina Panthers in Carolina

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Speaker 1: two and seven. The Panthers are home underdogs. Two and

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Speaker 1: a half points is the number here. The Falcons got

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Speaker 1: Corneillo Patterson back yesterday and wo man, what a physical

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Speaker 1: presence Corneilla Patterson is and just kind of changes what

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Speaker 1: the Falcons are able to do. Forty two and a

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Speaker 1: half is the number. If you like Carolina on the

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Speaker 1: money line is plus one oh eight. Pat When you're

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Speaker 1: looking at this one, you're the expert when it comes

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Speaker 1: to home dogs. Are you staying disciplined yet again? Here

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Speaker 1: in week ten? To kick things off?

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Speaker 2: Oh man, No, I actually like the Falcons in this one, Joe,

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Speaker 2: And it just seems like we saw the Panthers kind

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Speaker 2: of crumble a little bit yesterday and this game, oddly

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Speaker 2: enough for rematch of a strangely thrilling game that you know,

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Speaker 2: the Falcons had to go to overtime to win against

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Speaker 2: the Panthers after PJ.

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Speaker 3: Walker hits that deep late bomb to DJ Moore.

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Speaker 2: It'll be interesting to see if the Falcons get aj

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Speaker 2: Terrell back, Like that's kind of a key for them.

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Speaker 2: Their secondary has been hillaciously banged up. They're gonna be

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Speaker 2: without Casey Hayward for at least one more week, but

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Speaker 2: maybe they can get aj Terrell back from his hamstring injury.

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Speaker 2: So and it's going to be interesting to see which

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Speaker 2: of the three Panthers quarterbacks we get this week. Like

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Speaker 2: DJ Walker bench, Baker Mayfield played pretty well, but you know,

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Speaker 2: Baker Mayfield, I think the Panthers had decided was not

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Speaker 2: the answered quarterback. Maybe Sam Darnold is healthy enough to

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Speaker 2: make a start for Carolina, but you know, Friedman talked

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Speaker 2: about this on Twitter, like the Falcons are the definition

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Speaker 2: of exotic smash mouth this year, and like even more

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Speaker 2: so now that cord Aerol Patterson is back. And you

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Speaker 2: said it, Joe, like, I mean, he looked like a

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Speaker 2: man back from a long vacation.

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Speaker 3: He was super charged.

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Speaker 2: So you know, like this time, I don't think the

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Speaker 2: Panthers or the Falcons are going to struggle with the Panthers.

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Speaker 3: I think they're gonna to take care of business this time.

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Speaker 3: Even though it's on the road.

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Speaker 1: On my Fantasy Pro's news desk app, I did just

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Speaker 1: get that little news alert that Sam Darnold will be

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Speaker 1: active this week, Friedman, Does that any other quarterback enter

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Speaker 1: into your sphere about considering early wagering for this contest.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I've just bet on the Falcons here at minus

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Speaker 5: two and a half. I have this like fits projected

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Speaker 5: at minus three. So I do think that there's some

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Speaker 5: value here because I am taking into account that aj

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Speaker 5: Terrell is out, so if he comes back, that's just

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Speaker 5: sort of like free money at this point. And I

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Speaker 5: am expecting Baker Mayfield, who I mean whatever. I still

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Speaker 5: think he's probably the best of those three quarterbacks. I

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Speaker 5: am expecting him to start, but maybe he doesn't start,

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Speaker 5: in which case this is an even better situation for

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Speaker 5: the Falcons. So I do think there's value now at

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Speaker 5: anything under three.

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Speaker 1: All Right, Seattle and Tampa in Germany. The game is

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Speaker 1: a deutsch Land. Tampa is one point favorites, and this

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Speaker 1: one against the Seahawks, who came up with an o

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Speaker 1: W six and three. Tampa finally got off the schneid,

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Speaker 1: and I mean barely, just barely did forty four and

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Speaker 1: a half is the number Seattle on the money line

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Speaker 1: is even money. Freedman, what's your early take on this

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Speaker 1: contest if you have on.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I like Tampa Bay.

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Speaker 5: I mean I'm the idiot who bet them at minus

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Speaker 5: two and a half in the look ahead market, so whatever.

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Speaker 5: But you know, my feeling was that if it moves

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Speaker 5: up to three, I'm gonna be really happy I grabbed

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Speaker 5: it two and a half. And if it moves down,

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Speaker 5: there's not much of a difference between two and a

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Speaker 5: half and any number below that going to zero. So

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Speaker 5: I still think that there's value here. I think this

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Speaker 5: number should be three point twenty five. So I'm strongly

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Speaker 5: on the Buccaneers here. I think they have still a

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Speaker 5: good defense, they are getting healthier, and I think that

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Speaker 5: offense is starting to round into form. So I am

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Speaker 5: on the Buccaneers here, and I hate saying that because

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Speaker 5: I've loved Seattle to this point, but on a neutral field,

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Speaker 5: I still think Brady should be favored.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the consensus line for this one, Patta still bucks

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Speaker 1: at minus one, so obviously you know there's some wiggle

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Speaker 1: room here potentially too. But are we not giving the

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Speaker 1: seatle Seahawks enough credit? I mean, they seem to be

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Speaker 1: the little engine that could here. They run the football,

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Speaker 1: the defense is very opportunistic here, and Tampa Bay really

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Speaker 1: did just just eke out a victory in that game

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Speaker 1: against the Rams. What are your thoughts on this one?

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Speaker 2: Oh, I think we're giving the Seahawks a lot of credit, Joe, Like,

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Speaker 2: think of think of what sort of reassessment of these

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Speaker 2: two teams this line represents, Like what would this have

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Speaker 2: been before this season on a neutral field? Like, oh man,

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Speaker 2: I'm thinking like eight, you know.

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Speaker 4: And a half the number?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, wow, yeah, so this is quite See the neutral.

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Speaker 1: Field is what hug me up. That's why I said six.

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Speaker 1: Like neutral field, that's one of those things where you

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Speaker 1: just you never know, you travel and things like that.

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Speaker 1: But nine and a half, that's that's wow.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I mean Geno Smith versus Tom Brady all of a sudden,

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Speaker 2: now it's looking like more of an even match.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, like, I think is getting a lot of

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Speaker 3: credit for this line.

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Speaker 2: But like Friedman, I still think the Buccaneers are about

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Speaker 2: a field goal better.

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Speaker 3: On a neutral field.

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Speaker 2: And you know, part of this line I think is

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Speaker 2: that tamp has struggled against the Rams, like their offense

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Speaker 2: has been having some issues and the Rams gave them issues.

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Speaker 2: But the Rams have a good defense. They can give

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Speaker 2: teams issues, So I don't know. I still think the

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Speaker 2: Bucks are going to outclass Seattle in this one. You know,

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Speaker 2: I'm not quite buying Seattle's a six and three Super

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Speaker 2: Bowl contender, you know, like they're a nice surprise.

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Speaker 3: But I still think the Bucks are the better team here.

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Speaker 1: I think Seattle is super dangerous as an underdog. I

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Speaker 1: think they think they're an underdog. I think that's an

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Speaker 1: era they keep playing, and I think it's working for

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Speaker 1: them every single week that nobody believes in them, and

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Speaker 1: this is another opportunity where nobody's going to leave with them.

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Speaker 1: It's a big national attention moment. I'm on the Seattle

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Speaker 1: side hard on this game, and I don't usually do

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Speaker 1: this this early, especially on these international games. I tend

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Speaker 1: to shy away from them. I like Seattle side on

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Speaker 1: this one to win out right now. Minnesota Buffalo Buffalo

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Speaker 1: Bill's Josh Allen doing a little elbow pain and a

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Speaker 1: lot of pain in his heart after losing to the

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Speaker 1: Jets this weekend. They are regardless seven and a half

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Speaker 1: point favorites, here against the Minnesota Vikings, who came out

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Speaker 1: with a victory. They are seven and one. Forty eight

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Speaker 1: and a half is the number if you like Minnesota

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Speaker 1: in this contest, plus two eighty on the money line

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Speaker 1: for the upset. All right, let's talk about this path

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Speaker 1: fits Morris So before the show, you mentioned, and you're

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Speaker 1: absolutely a student saying this, that the Buffalo Bills are

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Speaker 1: a team that every time you think they are dominant

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Speaker 1: and ready to go, they have a game like they

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Speaker 1: did this past Sunday where things don't quite look like

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Speaker 1: the dominant Buffalo Bills. So maybe they got caught looking ahead.

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Speaker 1: Maybe they didn't take the Jets too seriously. You have

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Speaker 1: to take the Viking seriously because that offense has a

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Speaker 1: lot of weapons. What are your thoughts on this one?

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Speaker 1: Is this number too big here and not respecting Minnesota enough?

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Speaker 3: Again?

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Speaker 2: I think this show is Minnesota a lot of respect.

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Speaker 2: I think this line does reflect respect from Minnesota, maybe

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Speaker 2: more than they deserve.

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Speaker 3: More on that in a second. But like this is

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Speaker 3: why I.

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Speaker 2: Love betting on good teams coming off bad losses. Like

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Speaker 2: you know, the display of mortality by the Bills has

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Speaker 2: brought this line down against a team with the winning record,

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Speaker 2: and yet you know they're going to be fired.

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Speaker 3: Up to get the taste of that bad loss out

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Speaker 3: of their mouths.

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Speaker 2: So you know, last year, the Bills had a similar

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Speaker 2: clunker against the Urban Meyer led Jacksonville Jaguars, lost nine

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Speaker 2: to six in Jacksonville. They came back and squashed the

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Speaker 2: Jets forty five to seventeen the next week. So the Vikings, granted,

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Speaker 2: are better than those Jets. But I'm guessing the Buffalo

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Speaker 2: offense hums this week. And meanwhile, the Vikings six game

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Speaker 2: winning streak, they have won all six of those games

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Speaker 2: by one score or less, you know, within the margin

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Speaker 2: of one score against teams with the combined record of

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Speaker 2: twenty one and thirty one. The only team they've beaten

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Speaker 2: with a winning record over that stretch is Miami. Overvalue,

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Speaker 2: I mean, this line reflects and overvaluation of the Vikings.

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Speaker 2: I still think they're kind of a fraud as far

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Speaker 2: as being like a Super Bowl contender.

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Speaker 1: They're not, all right, Friedman. This is kind of the

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Speaker 1: reverse script of the Vikings last year, who lost every

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Speaker 1: game by three or less at all times. So now

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Speaker 1: you have the momentum of them winning these close games

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Speaker 1: and starting to feel confident. Does this confidence carry over

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Speaker 1: into Buffalo here? And is the confidence of the Bill

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Speaker 1: shaking a little bit? Do you see any value here

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Speaker 1: in this early number.

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Speaker 5: I like two bets in this game, and they kind

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Speaker 5: of go against each other a little bit. But I'm

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Speaker 5: with Fits. I like Buffalo here. I have this at

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Speaker 5: nine and a half. Actually no, I bet this in

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Speaker 5: nine and a half. Again just leading value on these

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Speaker 5: look ahead numbers, but I have this projected at ten.

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Speaker 5: You know, I think there's a lot of value in

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Speaker 5: seven and a half. Like Fits, I think there's a

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Speaker 5: bounce back opportunity here. And I also like the under.

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Speaker 5: It's forty eight across the market, even forty seven seven

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Speaker 5: and a half at a couple books, still forty eight

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Speaker 5: and a half at Caesar's. I would be betting that

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Speaker 5: right now. I have this projected at forty seven point three,

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Speaker 5: And you know, there is more opportunity for this number

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Speaker 5: to continue to go under if some of the defenders

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Speaker 5: for the Buffalo Bill's return to action, Jordan Ployer could

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Speaker 5: come back, tre Davis White could come back, and you know,

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Speaker 5: thinking about the Bills, I'm not all that worried about

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Speaker 5: the elbow situation. You know, I think the Twitter doctors

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Speaker 5: were a little over zealous last night talking about how

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Speaker 5: there's the opportunity that Josh Allen might miss multiple weeks.

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Speaker 5: Allen has said, yeah, the elbow hurts, but he plans

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Speaker 5: to play through it. So I'm you know, I'm evaluating

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Speaker 5: this number based on the likelihood right now might perceived

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Speaker 5: projection of this of Alan continuing to play. So I

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Speaker 5: think there's value on both Buffalo and the under because

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Speaker 5: this is an under team with their defense, the.

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Speaker 1: Lion's take on the Bears. The Bears two point home

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Speaker 1: favorites here after Justin Fields had himself a day. Forty

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Speaker 1: eight and a half is the number here plus one

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Speaker 1: two on the money line if you like the Lions

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Speaker 1: to keep the wins coming here, Friedman, I think the

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Speaker 1: best wager you can make here is to wait for

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Speaker 1: the prop market to develop and just take the over

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Speaker 1: on the Justin Field crushing yards. I think it's probably

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Speaker 1: the easiest thing to do. But outside of this, do

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Speaker 1: you feel there's any early value as we look at

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Speaker 1: this number of two or the forty eight and a

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Speaker 1: half in this game.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I do.

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Speaker 5: I already bet on the over in this game, and

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Speaker 5: you know it's I bet it when it was. I

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Speaker 5: believe forty five point five in the look ahead market.

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Speaker 5: Shout out me the few instances I actually.

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Speaker 1: Got some value in the look at more love you.

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Speaker 5: I still think there's value here at forty eight. Let

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Speaker 5: me see what my projection is for this. I have

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Speaker 5: it at forty nine point eight, So I still think

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Speaker 5: that there's value here on the over. Both of these

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Speaker 5: teams can put up points, and the Bears their defense

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Speaker 5: isn't is not good, or at least it's not as

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Speaker 5: good as it looked earlier in the year. You know,

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Speaker 5: they've had some degradation and losing some key players on

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Speaker 5: that defense. So they can score as we saw, you know,

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Speaker 5: the past few weeks, and they can let opponents score.

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Speaker 4: So I view this as an over opportunity.

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Speaker 1: All right, fits your thoughts here on the Bears and Lions.

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Speaker 2: Don't want to touch a side on this, but the

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Speaker 2: total was up to forty.

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Speaker 3: Nine on DraftKings this morning.

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Speaker 2: Like I'm kind of on the opposite side of Freedman

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Speaker 2: with this one. Like we saw the Lions offense sort

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Speaker 2: of struggle yesterday against the Packers, but the defense played

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Speaker 2: really well, like the Bears want to run the ball,

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Speaker 2: it's still going to lead to kind of a slow game.

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Speaker 3: And I don't know if it's.

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Speaker 2: Possible for Justin Fields to get as many chunk play

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Speaker 2: runs as he had yesterday against Miami. So I don't

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Speaker 2: know if I love it enough to bet it. But

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Speaker 2: I'm kind of under the total here, So Friedman and

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Speaker 2: I might be at odds with the side.

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Speaker 3: I just I don't think there's value.

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Speaker 1: Let's take a quick break in the action to tell

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Speaker 1: the Tennessee Redline at one eight hundred eight eight nine

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Speaker 1: nine seven eight nine at Tennessee or called one eight

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Speaker 1: eight eight seven seven seven nine six nine six. Mississippi

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Speaker 1: six six five three one two six zero zero to

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00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:04,480
Speaker 1: and Utah and other states where prohibitive and promotional offers

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00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:06,600
Speaker 1: not available in about New York and now back to

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Speaker 1: the action, all right, the Jacksonville Jaguars is gonna head

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Speaker 1: to Kansas City. Kansas City nine and a half point

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Speaker 1: favorites in this one. Forty nine and a half is

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Speaker 1: the number Jacksonville plus three fifty on the money line.

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Speaker 1: Pat Kansasy Chiefs continue to find ways to win. It

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Speaker 1: was not necessarily the dominant victory. I think people were

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Speaker 1: expecting potentially against the Titans. But the Titans are a

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Speaker 1: grinding kind of team. They play good defense, no surprise there.

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00:16:28,960 --> 00:16:30,720
Speaker 1: The Jaguars might be in for a little bit of

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Speaker 1: hard times in the words of my old friend Dusty Rhodes,

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Speaker 1: hard times baby might be coming for the Jacksonville Jaguars

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Speaker 1: in Kansas City. So do you think that you want

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Speaker 1: to jump on this nine and a half now before

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Speaker 1: it grows any larger?

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Speaker 2: Yep, absolutely, I think it should be like eleven eleven

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00:16:45,400 --> 00:16:51,520
Speaker 2: and a half and yesterday Week nine results obviously influencing this,

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Speaker 2: and how the Titans kind of turned it into a

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Speaker 2: mud wrestling match since we're talking dusty roads and wrestling

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Speaker 2: jump like. The Titans, though, are very good at disrupting

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Speaker 2: these high flying offenses and playing a game on their terms,

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Speaker 2: and the Jaguars don't necessarily strike me as the sort

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Speaker 2: of team that's going to be able to do that,

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Speaker 2: although they did it with the Bills last year in

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Speaker 2: that nine to six game that we were just talking about.

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Speaker 2: Still I don't think it happens again. Like I'm grabbing

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Speaker 2: the chiefs now.

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Speaker 1: Friedman, I want to hear your thoughts on this game,

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Speaker 1: but I also have a question for you. Early in

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Speaker 1: the year before the season. I'm always very careful about

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Speaker 1: the wagers I make for some of the awards, and

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Speaker 1: I only put money on two people at two big

383
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Speaker 1: numbers for MVP, Mahomes and Allen. To me, it's a

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Speaker 1: two person race, always was, always will be this year,

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Speaker 1: and I got it plus seven hundred plus eight hundred

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Speaker 1: for a home, seven hundred for Allen. After yesterday, has

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Speaker 1: the calculus change a little bit and who's the front

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Speaker 1: runner for MVP.

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Speaker 5: Man, I think it's probably close to a toss up

390
00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:52,640
Speaker 5: at this point. You still have to give the edge,

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00:17:52,720 --> 00:17:54,600
Speaker 5: I think to Buffalo because they have the head to

392
00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:57,560
Speaker 5: head tiebreaker over Kansas City, which means, you know, if

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Speaker 5: they get the number one seed, Allen's winning the award.

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Speaker 5: But yeah, I mean Kansas City obviously, And I'm with fits.

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00:18:05,200 --> 00:18:07,240
Speaker 5: I have this at eleven and a half, and I'll

396
00:18:07,280 --> 00:18:10,119
Speaker 5: just say it feels weird because for a lot of

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Speaker 5: the year, I've been showing value on underdogs, and this

398
00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:15,480
Speaker 5: year or this week, there's been a little bit of

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00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:18,560
Speaker 5: a shift where I'm showing more value on some of

400
00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:20,919
Speaker 5: the favorites, some of the bigger favorites, and it's just like,

401
00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:22,280
Speaker 5: all right, well, I'm just gonna go with what the

402
00:18:22,359 --> 00:18:22,840
Speaker 5: number show.

403
00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:23,920
Speaker 4: But to the.

404
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Speaker 5: Point of, yeah, MVP, I think Mahomes is right there,

405
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Speaker 5: I have I'm with you, I have a ticket at

406
00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:33,600
Speaker 5: nine to one. I mean, the idea of not betting

407
00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:38,000
Speaker 5: on Mahomes basically every year now, yeah, yeah, yeah, I

408
00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:38,560
Speaker 5: mean there's.

409
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Speaker 1: A lot of other people you could have that were

410
00:18:39,920 --> 00:18:42,280
Speaker 1: in that same universe of numbers, which I thought was

411
00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:43,800
Speaker 1: just very odd.

412
00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:47,200
Speaker 5: Jalen Hurts has a chance just given how soft the

413
00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:50,800
Speaker 5: rest of their schedule is. If they go they're not

414
00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:53,000
Speaker 5: going to go seventeen and no, they're not going to

415
00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:55,639
Speaker 5: But if they go seventeen and no, he has to

416
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Speaker 5: win the award.

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00:18:56,560 --> 00:18:58,719
Speaker 1: I agree. The only problem is statistically, when you look

418
00:18:58,760 --> 00:19:02,320
Speaker 1: at the passing touchdowns compared to his counterparts there in

419
00:19:02,359 --> 00:19:04,600
Speaker 1: the passing yard like, he is just so far behind

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00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:07,320
Speaker 1: statistically in those numbers. It's just a really hard sell.

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00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:08,960
Speaker 1: And I think collectively people look at the Eagles is

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00:19:09,040 --> 00:19:11,560
Speaker 1: really good defense, they run the football a lot, and look,

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00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:14,919
Speaker 1: I'm with you. Jalen Hurts, you know, certainly deserves all

424
00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:18,360
Speaker 1: to do he can get, but it is really hard

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00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:20,240
Speaker 1: to pass those other guys because statistically he's just not

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Speaker 1: in the same universe.

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Speaker 3: Go ahead, what were Gino smith sods before the season?

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Speaker 4: Non exists?

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00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:29,240
Speaker 1: Playing in the weeds with that one, Oh, Fitzy laying

430
00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:30,960
Speaker 1: in the weeds with that one. Let's go to Cleveland

431
00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:34,560
Speaker 1: in Miami six and three here minus four for the

432
00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:37,160
Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins. The Cleveland Browns coming off of there by

433
00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:41,679
Speaker 1: well rested. Will it matter? We shall see. Certainly, Miami's

434
00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:44,399
Speaker 1: defense is a lot to be desired there, especially stopping

435
00:19:44,440 --> 00:19:46,359
Speaker 1: the run. Oh good, you get Nick Chubb. Now in

436
00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:48,680
Speaker 1: Kareem Hunt. Forty eight and a half is the number.

437
00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:52,359
Speaker 1: I don't think that's safe plus one sixty five, Fitz,

438
00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:54,719
Speaker 1: let's start with you on this one. Here, your thoughts

439
00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:58,160
Speaker 1: on the Cleveland Browns Miami game. And do you think

440
00:19:58,160 --> 00:19:59,399
Speaker 1: that this forty eight and a half of something you

441
00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:00,320
Speaker 1: should jump on? Now?

442
00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:05,359
Speaker 2: I like Miami here, and yes, they did not do

443
00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:08,520
Speaker 2: a good job of keeping Justin Field's hemmed in the pocket.

444
00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:11,119
Speaker 2: That seemed to be, you know, not part of their

445
00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:13,199
Speaker 2: defensive game plan, and perhaps it should have been. But

446
00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:16,440
Speaker 2: they did a fine job against you know, David Montgomery

447
00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:19,879
Speaker 2: and Khalil Herbert, so it wasn't like the Bears running

448
00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:22,720
Speaker 2: backs for giving them problem. I just think this line

449
00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:26,200
Speaker 2: is obviously being influenced by the way the Browns played

450
00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:31,159
Speaker 2: last week against a very flat Cincinnati team. Like the

451
00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:34,040
Speaker 2: Bengals just looked terrible in that game. You know, the

452
00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:36,280
Speaker 2: Browns pass rush was getting home all light. So like,

453
00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:39,240
Speaker 2: I think this is influencing that line. And I just

454
00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:43,560
Speaker 2: think Miami is superior firepower, and I'm going to bet

455
00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:46,320
Speaker 2: on the superior firepower I think they should be like

456
00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:49,200
Speaker 2: four and a half to five points, So I'm gonna

457
00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:49,760
Speaker 2: take it now.

458
00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:51,600
Speaker 1: Is that where you are with this one, Freeman?

459
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:55,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, I haven't bet it yet, but I probably will.

460
00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:58,600
Speaker 5: I have this projected at five point two five. Of

461
00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:02,000
Speaker 5: course we do have the revenge game, four quarterbacks Jakobe Brissett,

462
00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:04,440
Speaker 5: but not worried about that. I don't see any value

463
00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:06,679
Speaker 5: on the total, but I do see slight value. But

464
00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:09,360
Speaker 5: because you know the difference between four and five point

465
00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:11,720
Speaker 5: two five, where I haven't projected, there's not much of

466
00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:13,679
Speaker 5: a difference there. I haven't bet it yet, and I

467
00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:15,560
Speaker 5: was kind of wanting to see if the market moved

468
00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:18,000
Speaker 5: in one direction or the other. But I'll probably just

469
00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:18,560
Speaker 5: bet it now.

470
00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:22,440
Speaker 1: The Houston Texans gave it all they had on Thursday night,

471
00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:24,440
Speaker 1: but it wasn't enough. They are now one six and one.

472
00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:28,000
Speaker 1: They'll travel to the Giants, who are six and two

473
00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:31,119
Speaker 1: coming off of a buye arrested Saquon Barkley. The Giants

474
00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:32,800
Speaker 1: are six and a half point favorites in this one.

475
00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:36,520
Speaker 1: The numbers thirty nine Houston's plus two twenty on the

476
00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:39,320
Speaker 1: money line. Looking at this one here, Friedman, actually it's

477
00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:42,080
Speaker 1: even moved, I believe from last night to now, because

478
00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:44,760
Speaker 1: now we've got the Giants at seven points and the

479
00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:47,000
Speaker 1: number's gone to thirty eight and a half. I see

480
00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:49,680
Speaker 1: Houston's at plus two forty, So just from oh, I

481
00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:52,639
Speaker 1: don't know, twelve hours ago, this number is already moving.

482
00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:54,800
Speaker 1: So how what do you make of that? As this

483
00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:56,399
Speaker 1: number starts to move, do you want to jump on

484
00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:58,199
Speaker 1: the Giants now before it grows any larger.

485
00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:01,320
Speaker 5: I don't think I would bet it now it's seven,

486
00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:03,920
Speaker 5: but I did grab it at six and the look

487
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:06,760
Speaker 5: ahead market just because I assumed that it would open

488
00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:09,760
Speaker 5: a little bit higher than that. But at this point now, honestly,

489
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:13,239
Speaker 5: I'm showing value on Houston. But that's so disgusting, and

490
00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:16,440
Speaker 5: I just but I made the same mistake last week

491
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:18,679
Speaker 5: of not wanting to be on Houston. But you know

492
00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:21,119
Speaker 5: I would if I'm on anything right now at seven,

493
00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:23,640
Speaker 5: it is Houston, but I would have to think about

494
00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:26,120
Speaker 5: it pretty hard. I haven't bet the under yet, but

495
00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:28,400
Speaker 5: I do show a little bit of value there. It's

496
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:30,040
Speaker 5: thirty eight and a half right now, I have it.

497
00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:33,480
Speaker 5: I believe thirty seven thirty seven point four, So I

498
00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:35,639
Speaker 5: think there's some value on the under fits.

499
00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:37,280
Speaker 1: Do you see any value on the under or anywhere

500
00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:37,920
Speaker 1: else in this game?

501
00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:42,879
Speaker 2: I kind of like the over here, like the the

502
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:46,760
Speaker 2: Texans offense with what Damian Pierce is giving that, Yeah,

503
00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:50,200
Speaker 2: like he makes the passing game work a little bit better.

504
00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:53,000
Speaker 2: And this assumes, I mean, the Texans do need to

505
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:55,800
Speaker 2: get Like, I don't know what's going on with Brandon Cooks.

506
00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:58,199
Speaker 2: Is this like some sort of odd estrangement from the

507
00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:00,800
Speaker 2: team or is he going to be bad this week

508
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:04,400
Speaker 2: like they need him to, you know, have more of a.

509
00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:08,000
Speaker 3: Multifaceted offense and not just the Damian Pierce show.

510
00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:13,440
Speaker 2: The Giants have been clicking, but have they accumulated accumulated

511
00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:17,440
Speaker 2: any rust during their bye week? You know, maybe I'd

512
00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:20,920
Speaker 2: give them like a little bit of an advantage coming

513
00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:22,960
Speaker 2: off that buy But then the Texans are coming off

514
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:24,880
Speaker 2: sort of a mini buye with the Thursday Night game

515
00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:27,280
Speaker 2: last week. I don't know, Joe that the Texans seem

516
00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:31,000
Speaker 2: like another wrestling analogy, like a jobber, like a really

517
00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:33,479
Speaker 2: good jobber. You know, they're not gonna win, but like

518
00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 2: they can you know, maybe keep it close and put

519
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:39,760
Speaker 2: the the Superstar over and uh, you know, I don't

520
00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:42,520
Speaker 2: know what kind of Superstar. The Giants are here, not

521
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:45,960
Speaker 2: exactly a Hulk Hogan, So you know, it seems like

522
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:48,840
Speaker 2: kind of a big number for this one. Like I

523
00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:51,479
Speaker 2: don't see any value on either side right now, but

524
00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:52,640
Speaker 2: I do like that.

525
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,000
Speaker 1: Like I feel like the Texans pat you know, they

526
00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:57,520
Speaker 1: had a I mean, how many primetime games in the

527
00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:00,360
Speaker 1: Texans playing this year? Is that the only one? Probably? Right,

528
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:02,160
Speaker 1: I feel like they got excited to play this. It's

529
00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:04,520
Speaker 1: us against the world. We're in our home stadium, you know,

530
00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:06,679
Speaker 1: let's let all hang out. I think that was a

531
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 1: lot of that. I think the letdown from that. I'm

532
00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:11,199
Speaker 1: on the Giant side of this one personally, because I

533
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:12,359
Speaker 1: just feel like I don't know if they can pump

534
00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:15,119
Speaker 1: the era into that balloon again. As impressive as Pierce was,

535
00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:17,479
Speaker 1: and he was, he was terrific in this game, but

536
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:20,680
Speaker 1: still I have a hard time believing that. We shall

537
00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:22,560
Speaker 1: see though, what happens if they travel to New York

538
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:25,560
Speaker 1: the New Orleans Saints. Right now, they are two and

539
00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 1: a half point favorites as they head to Pittsburgh, so

540
00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:30,399
Speaker 1: they are home underdogs at two and a half. The

541
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:32,959
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers coming off the bye plus one twenty two

542
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:34,399
Speaker 1: on the money line. Forty one and a half is

543
00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:38,200
Speaker 1: the number. Pat does Pittsburgh here, maybe catch New Orleans

544
00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:40,080
Speaker 1: in a short week and catch them napping? What do

545
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:40,440
Speaker 1: you think?

546
00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:42,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, not only a short week for the Saints, but

547
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:46,480
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh coming off of bye, So big scheduling advantage here

548
00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:49,119
Speaker 2: for Pittsburgh, which is why I've got this game about even.

549
00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:51,640
Speaker 2: And I've been on the Saints train in the last

550
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:54,440
Speaker 2: couple of weeks as home dogs against the Raiders and

551
00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:57,919
Speaker 2: then against the Ravens this week. But I am deboarding

552
00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:02,200
Speaker 2: this week and taking this here more time for Kenny

553
00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:05,800
Speaker 2: Pickett to maybe, you know, study film, reassess his first

554
00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:09,080
Speaker 2: month as a starter. You know, maybe that offense hums

555
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:10,760
Speaker 2: a little bit coming out of the buy well, I

556
00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:12,800
Speaker 2: don't know about hum, but maybe it's.

557
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:16,400
Speaker 3: A little more functional. So I like Pittsburgh here, Matt.

558
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:20,560
Speaker 1: This seems like an opportunity for the Pittsburgh Steelers to regroup, reset,

559
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:23,000
Speaker 1: give the young quarterback a little bit of a breather,

560
00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:25,600
Speaker 1: a little bit of time to you know, get more

561
00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:28,640
Speaker 1: comfortable with the offense. He isn't the worst case scenario here,

562
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 1: going to play in the egos, going to play in

563
00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:32,720
Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills. I'm not saying the Nororleans Saints aren't,

564
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:35,280
Speaker 1: you know, a cake defense. They're not. But it's an

565
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:37,600
Speaker 1: opportunity at home where I feel like Pittsburgh could kind

566
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:39,440
Speaker 1: of reset things for themselves as a team for the

567
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:41,120
Speaker 1: rest of the season. I know they're two and six,

568
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:43,560
Speaker 1: but do you see a potential here for an upset

569
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:44,480
Speaker 1: for Pittsburgh.

570
00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:48,479
Speaker 5: Yeah? Absolutely. You know, Mike Tomlin as an underdog has

571
00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:52,280
Speaker 5: been great. He's been fantastic in that situation, especially at home.

572
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:53,760
Speaker 4: We've got it lining up here.

573
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:56,600
Speaker 5: I've already got this circle as a bet I want

574
00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:59,080
Speaker 5: to make, but not at two and a half. You know,

575
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:02,239
Speaker 5: I think the Saints do well tonight, and when this

576
00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:04,960
Speaker 5: number reopens after that, it could be three. And so

577
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:08,080
Speaker 5: I'm looking, you know, waiting. If it's at three, I'm

578
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 5: gonna be jumping on it. If it moves down to two,

579
00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:12,560
Speaker 5: there's not much of a difference from two and a

580
00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:15,480
Speaker 5: half to two. So I'm hoping that the market moves

581
00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:17,879
Speaker 5: in the direction I wanted to, and that's you know,

582
00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:21,159
Speaker 5: kind of opportunistically looking to bet at a better number.

583
00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 1: Fits your thoughts here on the Pittsburgh Steelers and a

584
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:26,600
Speaker 1: potential upset here of New Orleans on the short week

585
00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:28,399
Speaker 1: with the long val you think you think we're in

586
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:31,080
Speaker 1: a spot here where maybe you go right to the

587
00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:32,240
Speaker 1: money line on this one.

588
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:36,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, and depending on what the line is, I'm I'm

589
00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 2: probably gonna hit it early with the money line just.

590
00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:42,879
Speaker 1: One aen right now. I believe no plus one twenty

591
00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:43,800
Speaker 1: two it's not moved to.

592
00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't have Friedman's patience.

593
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:47,960
Speaker 2: I'm probably going to hit it early with a small

594
00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 2: one unit bet and maybe I'll drop another unit if

595
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:53,359
Speaker 2: if the line moves up.

596
00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:56,600
Speaker 3: All right, Yeah, I do like Pittsburgh a lot here.

597
00:26:56,800 --> 00:26:59,400
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to Denver and Tennessee. Here,

598
00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 1: Tennessee five and three, coming off a tough loss there

599
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:07,200
Speaker 1: to the Kansas City Chiefs. Denver at three and five,

600
00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:09,480
Speaker 1: coming off of their buy so Tennessee two and a

601
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:12,439
Speaker 1: half point favorites at home, no surprises there. Thirty nine

602
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:14,520
Speaker 1: and a half is the number plus one twelve on

603
00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:16,480
Speaker 1: the money line for the Denver Broncos. Friedman, I want

604
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:18,679
Speaker 1: to start with you on this one. We were talking

605
00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:21,400
Speaker 1: before about the Tennessee Titans kind of bringing you down

606
00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:24,160
Speaker 1: to their level. Denver Broncos is pretty good defensive team.

607
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 1: What Denver Broncos do you expect to come out of

608
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:28,440
Speaker 1: the buy though in this contest?

609
00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:31,280
Speaker 5: I mean, I think pretty much the same version that

610
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:34,280
Speaker 5: went into it, except maybe a little bit better on offense.

611
00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:36,960
Speaker 5: But you know, they are a defensive focus team. I

612
00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:40,119
Speaker 5: think the under here is the play. I took it

613
00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:42,680
Speaker 5: when it was forty. It's thirty nine and a half.

614
00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:45,080
Speaker 5: Now I haven't projected at thirty seven point four, so

615
00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:47,919
Speaker 5: I still think that there's value at this number in

616
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:50,439
Speaker 5: terms of the side e. I'm just I'm kind of

617
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:53,119
Speaker 5: whatever on it. You know, the line is two and

618
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:55,639
Speaker 5: a half. I haven't projected at one point seven to five.

619
00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:58,399
Speaker 5: Not much of a difference there. So if I'm betting

620
00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 5: this game at this point, I'm looking at the under.

621
00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:03,960
Speaker 1: Fitz Morris, are you looking at the under as well?

622
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:04,480
Speaker 1: For this one?

623
00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:05,440
Speaker 3: I am.

624
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:08,679
Speaker 2: I kind of think like, even though my projection is

625
00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:12,120
Speaker 2: more for like pretty much spot on. I think Friedman's

626
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:14,960
Speaker 2: right about this, and I think I was too high.

627
00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:17,680
Speaker 2: And I like the Titans here actually, like I think

628
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:21,240
Speaker 2: they are settling into their identity again, and it's funny

629
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:24,520
Speaker 2: they had this similar identity last year, and you know

630
00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:26,919
Speaker 2: it carried them to a number one seed in the playoffs,

631
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:32,320
Speaker 2: and like we thought this was a lesser version of

632
00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:36,720
Speaker 2: last year's team with like a you know, diminished defense,

633
00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:41,480
Speaker 2: worse offensive line, and the defense looked terrific against Kansas

634
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:44,520
Speaker 2: City last night. I mean no Harold Landry, and yet

635
00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:48,280
Speaker 2: they were all over Patrick Mahomes in that game. You know,

636
00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 2: they they managed to cover pretty much blanket everyone except

637
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:56,600
Speaker 2: Travis Kelcey in that game. So like, the Titans are sneaky.

638
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 2: They've been sneaky for the last season and a half.

639
00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:03,240
Speaker 2: And you know, like I just don't really believe in

640
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 2: the Broncos. They've given us no reason to believe. So

641
00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:08,480
Speaker 2: I'm taking the Titans here at home.

642
00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:12,400
Speaker 5: To fit this point, you know, I am deducting a

643
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:15,280
Speaker 5: little bit on the possibility that we don't see Tannehill

644
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 5: in this game, So that is factoring into my projections.

645
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:20,040
Speaker 5: We probably see him, but it's not one hundred percent

646
00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:21,840
Speaker 5: we see him, So that is something that is knocking

647
00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:24,000
Speaker 5: the Titans down a little bit in my projections.

648
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:26,960
Speaker 1: That's good assessment there. It's a fair point. Next one

649
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:30,160
Speaker 1: on the honestly talking about not living up to expectations.

650
00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:32,560
Speaker 1: I like this boy What a perfect time for these

651
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 1: two teams to square off. Indianapolis Colts three five and

652
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 1: one against the Las Vegas Raiders five and a half

653
00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:40,000
Speaker 1: point favorites. Five and a half point favorites. The Las

654
00:29:40,120 --> 00:29:43,160
Speaker 1: Vegas Raiders are in this game against the Colts. This

655
00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:45,640
Speaker 1: is like when you have the two kids who are

656
00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:47,920
Speaker 1: problematic and you lock them in a room and attention

657
00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 1: together and you just say, you figure it out. I

658
00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:52,400
Speaker 1: don't know, but here we go. Forty two and a

659
00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:54,800
Speaker 1: half is the over under. The money line is plus

660
00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:56,920
Speaker 1: one eighty five on the Colts if you like them

661
00:29:56,960 --> 00:30:00,440
Speaker 1: to upset here, Fitz break this down for me, because

662
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:02,280
Speaker 1: I think we're all trying to figure out who the

663
00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:04,240
Speaker 1: Raiders are. The Raiders are trying to figure who the

664
00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:07,640
Speaker 1: Raiders are, and the Colts are just losing. I feel

665
00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:11,640
Speaker 1: like between losing players, losing Jonathan Taylor, losing some other

666
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 1: pieces here, the health of this team kind of not

667
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:16,160
Speaker 1: being what it was, and then it seems like from

668
00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:18,440
Speaker 1: a coaching standpoint, things are sort of fraying at the

669
00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:21,680
Speaker 1: seams at the stage. So where do you go here?

670
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 1: Because both of these dysfunctional teams right now, somebody's got

671
00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:26,720
Speaker 1: to come out with a victory, who is it.

672
00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:29,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's not going to be much of a breakdown, Joe,

673
00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:32,480
Speaker 2: the two of the biggest jackal and hide teams in

674
00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:33,040
Speaker 2: the NFL.

675
00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:35,040
Speaker 3: I wouldn't bet this with your money, and.

676
00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:37,440
Speaker 1: I wouldn't let you bet it with my money.

677
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not touching this. I mean, like, I'm definitely

678
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:41,800
Speaker 3: not betting the Colts.

679
00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:44,400
Speaker 2: The Colts are unbettable right now, but like, I don't

680
00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:46,440
Speaker 2: feel good enough about the Raiders to bet them either,

681
00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:47,640
Speaker 2: So I'm just walking away.

682
00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:49,880
Speaker 3: Don't like the side, don't like the tone.

683
00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:53,720
Speaker 1: So Pat's clear about his feelings about it. Friedman, do

684
00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:55,600
Speaker 1: you think though, that, like, are we giving the Raiders

685
00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:57,560
Speaker 1: too much here five and a half? I mean, for

686
00:30:57,560 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 1: a Raiders team that continuously lets everybody back in the games,

687
00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:02,600
Speaker 1: I know it's the Colts, but I mean if you

688
00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:07,080
Speaker 1: look at what the Raiders haven't done, which is close out,

689
00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:09,120
Speaker 1: I mean, doesn't this lead you to the like a

690
00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:11,800
Speaker 1: perfect situation where yeah, nobody's looking for the Colts. You

691
00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:13,320
Speaker 1: might as well take the Colt side of this game

692
00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:14,480
Speaker 1: and take the Colts side points.

693
00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:17,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I hate this game. It's disgusting.

694
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:19,480
Speaker 5: You know, we're not going to talk about the Patriots

695
00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:21,480
Speaker 5: because they're not playing this week. But the Patriots look

696
00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:23,880
Speaker 5: like one of the worst teams in the NFL, I

697
00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:26,320
Speaker 5: think this past week except no, not good at all.

698
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:29,040
Speaker 5: Except they were playing the Colts, which means they played

699
00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 5: their defense and Matthew Judon gets to the quarterback.

700
00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 1: And at the end of the day, if you play

701
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:34,479
Speaker 1: defense round the football that again, what do I always say?

702
00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:37,000
Speaker 1: That travels right, So you cou you could do that,

703
00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:38,520
Speaker 1: and you could be good to a certain amount, and

704
00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:40,960
Speaker 1: then when you play those higher level teams, the Patrick

705
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:42,480
Speaker 1: Mahomes and Josh Allens of the world are going to

706
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:45,440
Speaker 1: pick you apart unfortunately. But I mean, I mean the

707
00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:46,840
Speaker 1: Raiders have kind of told us who they are. I

708
00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:49,600
Speaker 1: know the Colts have as well. But geez, like, I mean,

709
00:31:49,600 --> 00:31:51,160
Speaker 1: week to week we always see this where we just

710
00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:53,000
Speaker 1: count some team out and then the next week we go, oh,

711
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:54,760
Speaker 1: look at that. Look they showed a little signs of life.

712
00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 1: There is this one of those scenarios where maybe you're

713
00:31:56,800 --> 00:31:57,440
Speaker 1: overlooking it.

714
00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:01,080
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean I have this projected etseet which is disgusting.

715
00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 5: It really is disgusting. And I'll just say in the

716
00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:05,920
Speaker 5: look Ahead market when it was three and a half.

717
00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:09,160
Speaker 5: I had value on the Raiders, but I didn't bet

718
00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:11,880
Speaker 5: it because my lizard brain was thinking, oh, maybe this

719
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:14,760
Speaker 5: gets down to three, you know, like maybe then you know,

720
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:17,120
Speaker 5: maybe somehow it works out it gets down to three,

721
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:19,040
Speaker 5: and then now the numbers at five and a half.

722
00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:22,400
Speaker 5: But I'm still showing value on that. But man, I

723
00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:25,520
Speaker 5: don't I really don't want to bet it. But the

724
00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:28,880
Speaker 5: Cults they are bad, like the sam Ellinger experiment is

725
00:32:28,920 --> 00:32:32,480
Speaker 5: not working out. They entered this past week dead last

726
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:35,800
Speaker 5: in the mass Epea body ratings, which, like I have

727
00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:38,719
Speaker 5: a lot of respect for that, I mean, they were

728
00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:41,560
Speaker 5: higher in my ratings. I needed to knock them down,

729
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:44,040
Speaker 5: like I've knocked them down significantly based on what we

730
00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 5: saw last week, Like they did look like one of

731
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:48,520
Speaker 5: the worst teams in the NFL last week, and I

732
00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:51,080
Speaker 5: think I need to power rate them as such. So

733
00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:55,120
Speaker 5: I am showing some value here. Man, I don't want

734
00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:57,360
Speaker 5: to be betting the Raiders, but if I haven't projected

735
00:32:57,400 --> 00:33:00,280
Speaker 5: at seven and the numbers five and a half, should

736
00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:01,080
Speaker 5: probably be betting it.

737
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:03,600
Speaker 1: All right, Let's move on to the next one to

738
00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:07,640
Speaker 1: get the keyword is yet there? Everyone? Green Bay Packers

739
00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 1: three and six. They are five point home underdogs Dallas

740
00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:14,400
Speaker 1: Cowboys minus five here in this one as they come

741
00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:16,880
Speaker 1: in off the by Forty two and a half is

742
00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:19,400
Speaker 1: the number in this one, plus one eighty for the

743
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:21,360
Speaker 1: Packers in the money line Wherehaun Gary looks like he

744
00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 1: has a torn acl so he is going to be out.

745
00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:26,840
Speaker 1: Demandra Campbell was out last week, so Packers missing pieces

746
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:29,480
Speaker 1: there not to mention still waiting on clarity with Aaron

747
00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:32,760
Speaker 1: Jones Freedman. I'm gonna give Pat some time on this

748
00:33:32,800 --> 00:33:34,880
Speaker 1: one because I know he's got lots of feelings about it.

749
00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:38,360
Speaker 1: So look home, underdogs. Here we go again. But at

750
00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:41,080
Speaker 1: the same time, I mean, the Packers once again continue

751
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:43,680
Speaker 1: to show us who they are every single week. And

752
00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 1: I tried to warn everybody last week on the show

753
00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:47,360
Speaker 1: who they were, and nobody wanted to listen to me.

754
00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:48,760
Speaker 1: So do you think people are listening now?

755
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:50,120
Speaker 3: I hope so.

756
00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:53,800
Speaker 1: And you know that couldn't wait. Bat's jumping right in.

757
00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:56,640
Speaker 3: Go ahead, Bat go yeah and uh oh.

758
00:33:56,680 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 2: And by the way, this is fits his favorite team

759
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 2: against Friedman's family A team right. You're you're not gonna

760
00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:05,240
Speaker 2: get any braggedo'shio from me, although I will say that

761
00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:08,520
Speaker 2: des Bryant didn't really catch the ball never mind.

762
00:34:09,400 --> 00:34:11,480
Speaker 3: So yeah, like I had this.

763
00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:15,359
Speaker 2: As pretty much right where the line is at four

764
00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:20,160
Speaker 2: and a half. But that was before you informed me,

765
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:22,879
Speaker 2: Joe just before the show that Rashan Gary has torn

766
00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:27,319
Speaker 2: his acl So the Packers best defender, the one guy

767
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:30,279
Speaker 2: who you know, as terribly as this team has played,

768
00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:34,400
Speaker 2: who showed up every week, he's not there. Aaron Jones

769
00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:37,320
Speaker 2: hurt himself. He's probably not gonna play like their only

770
00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:42,360
Speaker 2: explosive weapon on offense anymore. So that's definitely going to

771
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:46,080
Speaker 2: shift the projection here, Like I think I'm gonna bet Dallas.

772
00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:49,600
Speaker 1: All Right, here we go, mister cowboy, you talk to

773
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:51,960
Speaker 1: me about the Cowboys here. Would you think you think

774
00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:53,880
Speaker 1: that this is more competitive than we realize or do

775
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:56,320
Speaker 1: you think this is just another nail on the coffin

776
00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:58,560
Speaker 1: of the Packers of a very long season for them.

777
00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:01,719
Speaker 5: Well, I just I want to contextualize a little bit

778
00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:05,360
Speaker 5: what we saw yesterday with the Packers. Yeah, they played horribly,

779
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:08,560
Speaker 5: and some of the throws that Rogers made were you know,

780
00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:12,040
Speaker 5: kind of inexcusable, but you know, they suffered just an

781
00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:16,799
Speaker 5: avalanche of injuries in yesterday's game, you know, Romeo Dobbs

782
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:20,120
Speaker 5: exiting with the ankle injury, Christian Watson.

783
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:20,960
Speaker 4: Exiting with the concussion.

784
00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:23,319
Speaker 5: Like the only thing worse than having to depend on

785
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:25,960
Speaker 5: two rookie wide receivers is depending on them and then

786
00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:28,239
Speaker 5: having them taken away from you in the middle of

787
00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:31,840
Speaker 5: the game. Cornerback Eric Stokes left early with a knee

788
00:35:31,840 --> 00:35:36,319
Speaker 5: and ankle injury, obviously, Rashaun Gary out for the year,

789
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:39,560
Speaker 5: and then Aaron Jones. So like, you know, what we

790
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:43,360
Speaker 5: saw wasn't I would say, like the typical Green Bay offense,

791
00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:44,000
Speaker 5: but it was.

792
00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:46,279
Speaker 4: Still fairly typical. Like there were.

793
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:49,080
Speaker 5: Circumstances, extenuating circumstances, and we don't know how many of

794
00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:51,080
Speaker 5: those guys are going to be back for this game.

795
00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:53,239
Speaker 5: And so I will say, you know, I have this

796
00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:56,480
Speaker 5: projected at four point seventy five, so kind of right

797
00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:58,480
Speaker 5: in between the four and a half where it opened

798
00:35:58,520 --> 00:36:01,320
Speaker 5: last night and the five why available in the market.

799
00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:04,080
Speaker 5: And I gotta say, like that four and a half

800
00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:07,799
Speaker 5: is still available at one place right here, I am

801
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:10,319
Speaker 5: seeing it at bet MGM, and just kind of like

802
00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:14,479
Speaker 5: from a tactical betting perspective, I do expect this line

803
00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:16,400
Speaker 5: to continue to move. So I'm just gonna grab it

804
00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:18,919
Speaker 5: now at the four and a half here the loan

805
00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:21,240
Speaker 5: four and a half left in the market at bet MGM.

806
00:36:21,880 --> 00:36:23,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, and the Gary News I got from Aaron Nageler

807
00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:26,400
Speaker 1: this morning, old colleague of mine who says it's probably

808
00:36:26,440 --> 00:36:28,280
Speaker 1: going to be announced at some point. But that seems

809
00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:30,960
Speaker 1: to be the case there with him. So just sometimes

810
00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:33,719
Speaker 1: when it rains of pores on some teams, just the

811
00:36:33,719 --> 00:36:36,120
Speaker 1: way it's going right now for the Pack Unfortunately for them.

812
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:39,680
Speaker 1: The Los Angeles Rams three and five. They are three

813
00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:42,320
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites in a game against the

814
00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:45,719
Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals, who dropped another one the Arizona Cardinals, and

815
00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:48,040
Speaker 1: the Rams is at forty three and a half plus

816
00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:50,840
Speaker 1: one fifty two on the Cardinals side. Here, look, the

817
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:54,200
Speaker 1: Cardinals seem to be I don't know, when you when

818
00:36:54,200 --> 00:36:56,759
Speaker 1: you watch the Arizona Cardinals, you're watching what happens on

819
00:36:56,800 --> 00:36:58,680
Speaker 1: the field, but you're almost watching more for what happens

820
00:36:58,680 --> 00:37:00,880
Speaker 1: off the field, and the constant are arguing and bickering

821
00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:03,000
Speaker 1: and the nonsense going back and forth. It just seems

822
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:05,600
Speaker 1: like Cliff Kingsbury does not have control of what's going on. There,

823
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:09,279
Speaker 1: or it seems like Kyler Murray is revolting against it.

824
00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:11,680
Speaker 1: It's hard to know which side is right or what's happening,

825
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:14,120
Speaker 1: But that just seems like a bad recipe to go

826
00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:16,120
Speaker 1: and travel to the Rams. Are just coming off a

827
00:37:16,120 --> 00:37:19,000
Speaker 1: tough loss there to the Bucks. So I'm definitely on

828
00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:20,520
Speaker 1: the Rams side of this one, and I am not

829
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:22,600
Speaker 1: a fan of the Rams, you know that. Are you

830
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:24,600
Speaker 1: in the same mind here? Do you think that Arizona

831
00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:26,160
Speaker 1: can keep this more competitive? Or do you think the

832
00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:28,600
Speaker 1: Los Angeles Rams here kind of get right and get

833
00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:29,240
Speaker 1: back on track.

834
00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:30,080
Speaker 3: No.

835
00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:32,239
Speaker 5: I tend to have a very simple formula when it

836
00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:34,640
Speaker 5: comes to Arizona. I bet them is road underdogs, and

837
00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:36,600
Speaker 5: I fade them a home favorites, and so they are,

838
00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:39,680
Speaker 5: you know, very cleanly roade underdogs in this spot. You know,

839
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:42,279
Speaker 5: it's you know, moving around between three three and a

840
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:45,799
Speaker 5: half in the market. I have this projected at three

841
00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:48,520
Speaker 5: and so I will be you know, grabbing it at

842
00:37:48,560 --> 00:37:50,759
Speaker 5: three and a half. Bet in GM three and a

843
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:53,719
Speaker 5: half there, you know, minus one ten odds. So I

844
00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:56,600
Speaker 5: think there's value there on anything above the key number

845
00:37:56,640 --> 00:37:58,200
Speaker 5: of three fits.

846
00:37:58,200 --> 00:37:59,439
Speaker 1: Do you feel the same way in this game?

847
00:38:00,560 --> 00:38:03,680
Speaker 2: Not really I mean, having done shows with Friedman for

848
00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:06,160
Speaker 2: ten weeks, I know all about the Kingsbury code, and

849
00:38:06,200 --> 00:38:08,759
Speaker 2: I'm kind of, you know, he's been spot on with it.

850
00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:12,560
Speaker 2: I'm reluctant to go against it. But in the earlier

851
00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:15,680
Speaker 2: meeting between these two teams in Week three, like it

852
00:38:15,760 --> 00:38:18,560
Speaker 2: was a strange game. The Rams kept them, kept the

853
00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:21,759
Speaker 2: Cardinals at arm's length and won twenty to twelve. And

854
00:38:21,840 --> 00:38:24,040
Speaker 2: the Rams got out to this thirteen to nothing lead

855
00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:27,640
Speaker 2: by early in the second quarter, and they just kept

856
00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:30,840
Speaker 2: holding the Cardinals to field goals like that's all Arizona

857
00:38:30,840 --> 00:38:34,080
Speaker 2: could generate, or Matt Prader field goals, and the Cardinals

858
00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:36,400
Speaker 2: outgained the Rams two hundred and ninety five yards to

859
00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:38,560
Speaker 2: two hundred and thirty nine yards in that game. It

860
00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:41,440
Speaker 2: was kind of a rock fight. Cardinals didn't commit a

861
00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:45,520
Speaker 2: single turnover. They held Kyler to like thirty seven of

862
00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:48,359
Speaker 2: fifty eight for three hundred and fourteen yards, So like

863
00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:52,400
Speaker 2: they just turned the Cardinals into this inefficient offense.

864
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:54,640
Speaker 3: That's why I kind of like.

865
00:38:54,600 --> 00:38:57,719
Speaker 2: The under I think we see maybe the same type

866
00:38:57,719 --> 00:39:02,759
Speaker 2: of game in that here. And although we had the

867
00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:04,960
Speaker 2: Kingsbury Code, I just can't follow it.

868
00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:06,920
Speaker 3: I don't think I'm going to take either side.

869
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:09,759
Speaker 1: Well, here's one you could do in game if you like.

870
00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 1: Cliff Kingsbury is now six twenty seven and one when

871
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:16,520
Speaker 1: trailing at halftime, So if you want to just wait

872
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:18,000
Speaker 1: and see what the score is at half, and then

873
00:39:18,000 --> 00:39:20,160
Speaker 1: you can kind of make your wages accordingly to that too,

874
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:22,400
Speaker 1: even if it's close, even if it's ten to seven.

875
00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:25,000
Speaker 1: For goodness sake, all right, let's go to the next one. Here,

876
00:39:25,160 --> 00:39:27,800
Speaker 1: we've got the Los Angeles Chargers and the San Francisco

877
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:29,840
Speaker 1: forty nine Ers. The forty nine ers coming off thereby.

878
00:39:30,320 --> 00:39:32,560
Speaker 1: This one is in primetime on Sunday night. There seven

879
00:39:32,600 --> 00:39:35,600
Speaker 1: point favorites against Los Angeles. Who is missing Mike Williams,

880
00:39:35,680 --> 00:39:39,160
Speaker 1: keenan Allen this past week certainly missing a lot of pieces.

881
00:39:39,200 --> 00:39:41,239
Speaker 1: Forty six and a half is the number here if

882
00:39:41,239 --> 00:39:43,400
Speaker 1: you like the charge on the upsets plus two twenty.

883
00:39:43,719 --> 00:39:46,239
Speaker 1: Last time we saw Christian McCaffrey, he was literally doing

884
00:39:46,280 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 1: everything he could to get the forty nine ers the

885
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:52,239
Speaker 1: victory there. So a week off, a little bit of rest,

886
00:39:52,239 --> 00:39:53,960
Speaker 1: a little bit more time in the offense. Do you

887
00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:57,719
Speaker 1: think this seven is a good number? Here? Pat your

888
00:39:57,760 --> 00:40:00,440
Speaker 1: thoughts on Chargers and forty nine Ers.

889
00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:02,640
Speaker 2: I kind of think the number is pretty spot on,

890
00:40:02,719 --> 00:40:04,560
Speaker 2: but I want to be on the over here, Joe, Like,

891
00:40:04,600 --> 00:40:07,120
Speaker 2: I don't see how the Chargers can possibly stop the

892
00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:09,840
Speaker 2: forty nine ers running game, Like the Chargers are so

893
00:40:10,120 --> 00:40:13,640
Speaker 2: bad against the run, right, and like, I think, I

894
00:40:13,680 --> 00:40:15,279
Speaker 2: think the forty nine Ers are going to put up

895
00:40:15,280 --> 00:40:17,840
Speaker 2: thirty plus points and I think the Chargers have a

896
00:40:17,840 --> 00:40:20,560
Speaker 2: good enough offense to do the rest to push this

897
00:40:20,680 --> 00:40:21,160
Speaker 2: game over.

898
00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:22,520
Speaker 1: I was to day four. Six and a half does

899
00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:25,319
Speaker 1: kind of seem kind of like it's begging for the

900
00:40:25,360 --> 00:40:27,920
Speaker 1: over there, Freeman. Do you kind of agree with that?

901
00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:31,440
Speaker 5: Yeah, I have this projected at forty eight point six,

902
00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:33,960
Speaker 5: So I do. I do see value on that, And honestly, that.

903
00:40:34,040 --> 00:40:35,759
Speaker 4: Is probably the better way to play it.

904
00:40:35,840 --> 00:40:39,080
Speaker 5: The way that like my instinct is to look at

905
00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:41,880
Speaker 5: the side and say, oh, I'm on the Chargers in

906
00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:46,799
Speaker 5: this spot, and I think seven is too much. You know,

907
00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:48,920
Speaker 5: it opened at six and a half in the early line.

908
00:40:50,040 --> 00:40:52,759
Speaker 5: You know, it's moved to seven at some places.

909
00:40:53,840 --> 00:40:54,799
Speaker 4: The look ahead was.

910
00:40:54,880 --> 00:40:59,719
Speaker 5: Five in the In the off season, this number was

911
00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:03,040
Speaker 5: between zero point five and one, so it has you know,

912
00:41:03,120 --> 00:41:06,200
Speaker 5: moved aggressively towards the forty nine Ers over the you know,

913
00:41:06,239 --> 00:41:09,359
Speaker 5: the course of the season, and uh man, the forty

914
00:41:09,400 --> 00:41:12,799
Speaker 5: nine Ers at home. That is like forty nine Ers

915
00:41:12,840 --> 00:41:14,759
Speaker 5: is a home favorite. That is just a situation. I

916
00:41:15,160 --> 00:41:18,040
Speaker 5: want to fade when when given the opportunity. But at

917
00:41:18,080 --> 00:41:19,480
Speaker 5: the same time, I normally don't want to do that

918
00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:22,279
Speaker 5: with the Chargers because I don't trust them. But to

919
00:41:22,280 --> 00:41:24,279
Speaker 5: Fitz's point, I do think both of these teams can

920
00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:26,239
Speaker 5: put up points, so that is probably the way to

921
00:41:26,239 --> 00:41:26,640
Speaker 5: play it.

922
00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:28,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, the over on the forty six and a half

923
00:41:28,719 --> 00:41:32,120
Speaker 1: seems like the safest early wager. Before we get any

924
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:34,440
Speaker 1: other news, all right, last one here Monday Night football.

925
00:41:34,480 --> 00:41:36,279
Speaker 1: The Eagles undefeated at eight to zero. Ten and a

926
00:41:36,320 --> 00:41:38,839
Speaker 1: half is the number on this one. The Washington Commanders

927
00:41:39,120 --> 00:41:42,000
Speaker 1: at four and five. They've been plucky. As Fitz likes

928
00:41:42,000 --> 00:41:44,560
Speaker 1: to say, forty four and a half is the number

929
00:41:44,719 --> 00:41:47,200
Speaker 1: plus three seventy five on the money line. Now, Freeman,

930
00:41:47,280 --> 00:41:49,319
Speaker 1: sometimes these Indivision games get a little wacky. And last

931
00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:51,240
Speaker 1: time we saw a big number here attached the Eagles,

932
00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:54,400
Speaker 1: they did not cover it, So you know, I know

933
00:41:54,520 --> 00:41:57,600
Speaker 1: it's a different class of team here. The Eagles have

934
00:41:57,640 --> 00:42:00,360
Speaker 1: been very good. The defense has played great art and

935
00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:03,000
Speaker 1: the offense have been terrific. Everything's working for the Eagles. Now,

936
00:42:03,480 --> 00:42:04,960
Speaker 1: I'm not saying it's a trap game, but we all

937
00:42:05,000 --> 00:42:07,200
Speaker 1: know these Indivision games sometimes get a little whacky. Does

938
00:42:07,239 --> 00:42:08,680
Speaker 1: it get whacky enough of that ten and a half

939
00:42:08,680 --> 00:42:10,360
Speaker 1: for you to be interested on the Commanders or you

940
00:42:10,400 --> 00:42:12,840
Speaker 1: think no, stay away, or it's the Eagles.

941
00:42:13,120 --> 00:42:15,000
Speaker 5: I still like the Eagles in the spot, and ten

942
00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:16,799
Speaker 5: and a half is a big number, you know. I

943
00:42:16,840 --> 00:42:19,880
Speaker 5: mentioned earlier this week I'm showing value on some of

944
00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:22,760
Speaker 5: the big favorites, and this is just one of those spots.

945
00:42:22,800 --> 00:42:25,480
Speaker 5: The Eagles, man, you know, they they're coming off of

946
00:42:25,480 --> 00:42:29,239
Speaker 5: that many buy. I think there's still a really a

947
00:42:29,280 --> 00:42:31,960
Speaker 5: good team that is getting better, you know. And they

948
00:42:32,239 --> 00:42:35,360
Speaker 5: underperformed a little bit against the Texans, but at no

949
00:42:35,480 --> 00:42:37,520
Speaker 5: point did it really feel like they were going to

950
00:42:37,560 --> 00:42:40,040
Speaker 5: lose that game. And I do not have a lot

951
00:42:40,040 --> 00:42:44,120
Speaker 5: of respect for Washington here, you know, take this trend

952
00:42:44,120 --> 00:42:46,759
Speaker 5: for whatever it's worth. But Nick Sirianni is six to

953
00:42:46,880 --> 00:42:49,000
Speaker 5: zho to one against the spread as a home favorite.

954
00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:51,560
Speaker 5: Like most teams is home favorites. If anything, they tend

955
00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:54,400
Speaker 5: to underperform. But like the Eagles, haven't in that spot,

956
00:42:54,840 --> 00:42:56,160
Speaker 5: so I still like them here.

957
00:42:56,200 --> 00:42:58,319
Speaker 4: I have this projected eleven point twenty five.

958
00:42:58,600 --> 00:43:01,560
Speaker 1: There was a commercial on the weekend they're running on

959
00:43:01,600 --> 00:43:05,439
Speaker 1: the internet for Taylor Heineke and the Washington Commander season

960
00:43:05,480 --> 00:43:08,160
Speaker 1: tickets for next year. So make what you will out

961
00:43:08,160 --> 00:43:10,319
Speaker 1: of that fits. I don't know, do you think they're

962
00:43:10,840 --> 00:43:13,080
Speaker 1: they're thinking, Taylor Heineke, you can go ahead and pull

963
00:43:13,080 --> 00:43:14,919
Speaker 1: off a huge upset against the Eagles or at least

964
00:43:14,920 --> 00:43:18,680
Speaker 1: cover the seven ten and a half apologies ten and

965
00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:19,040
Speaker 1: a half.

966
00:43:19,440 --> 00:43:21,880
Speaker 2: I hope they're not thinking that, and I tend to

967
00:43:21,920 --> 00:43:24,879
Speaker 2: think this line is going to increase, Like I don't

968
00:43:24,880 --> 00:43:26,960
Speaker 2: see a ton of value at ten and a half,

969
00:43:27,000 --> 00:43:28,640
Speaker 2: but I think I see enough value to bet it

970
00:43:28,719 --> 00:43:32,000
Speaker 2: now before it goes up. And in the In the

971
00:43:32,040 --> 00:43:35,720
Speaker 2: earlier meeting between these two teams in Week three, twenty

972
00:43:35,760 --> 00:43:40,560
Speaker 2: four to eight, Eagles win in Washington. Eagles didn't really

973
00:43:40,640 --> 00:43:42,919
Speaker 2: run the ball well, but Jalen Hurts was twenty two

974
00:43:42,920 --> 00:43:44,960
Speaker 2: of thirty five for three hundred and forty yards with

975
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:47,800
Speaker 2: three touchdowns and no interceptions, so he pretty much picked

976
00:43:47,920 --> 00:43:48,960
Speaker 2: Washington apart.

977
00:43:49,160 --> 00:43:50,960
Speaker 3: And like Hurtz, has looked.

978
00:43:50,760 --> 00:43:53,640
Speaker 2: Really good lately, So there's no way I can go

979
00:43:53,719 --> 00:43:56,799
Speaker 2: against the Eagles here, and you know, I think get

980
00:43:56,840 --> 00:43:59,640
Speaker 2: them now. I see this line ending up at like

981
00:43:59,640 --> 00:44:02,560
Speaker 2: eleven and a half or twelve, So jump on it

982
00:44:02,600 --> 00:44:03,600
Speaker 2: now before the.

983
00:44:04,120 --> 00:44:06,480
Speaker 1: See I wanted to keep growing and then I want

984
00:44:06,480 --> 00:44:08,239
Speaker 1: to go to the Washington side. That's why I want

985
00:44:08,239 --> 00:44:08,839
Speaker 1: to let this one.

986
00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:09,799
Speaker 3: I want to want it.

987
00:44:10,239 --> 00:44:11,880
Speaker 1: I want to give it some sunlight, and then I

988
00:44:11,880 --> 00:44:13,719
Speaker 1: want it to grow, and then I want to go

989
00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:15,480
Speaker 1: back the commander's side of this one. That's what I

990
00:44:15,560 --> 00:44:17,360
Speaker 1: want to do because I think that's where you're going

991
00:44:17,440 --> 00:44:20,000
Speaker 1: to find the value. Because you know, funny things happen

992
00:44:20,000 --> 00:44:22,560
Speaker 1: on these primetime games, especially in division. You know, these

993
00:44:22,600 --> 00:44:24,800
Speaker 1: teams show up for these kind of moments there. It's

994
00:44:24,840 --> 00:44:27,720
Speaker 1: it's the emotional side of football that all the data.

995
00:44:27,800 --> 00:44:30,160
Speaker 1: Sometimes you just can't quantify it, but it happens. We

996
00:44:30,160 --> 00:44:32,440
Speaker 1: saw with the Texans on Thursday night, so we know

997
00:44:32,520 --> 00:44:34,560
Speaker 1: what happens these primetime games. These guys get up, they

998
00:44:34,600 --> 00:44:37,400
Speaker 1: know everybody else is watching them, so they show up

999
00:44:37,400 --> 00:44:40,200
Speaker 1: for these games. So let this number grow marinate, that's

1000
00:44:40,200 --> 00:44:43,320
Speaker 1: what you want to do, like a good Italian Sunday sauce.

1001
00:44:43,520 --> 00:44:45,760
Speaker 1: So let's sit there for hours and hours and hours,

1002
00:44:46,160 --> 00:44:48,719
Speaker 1: and then then you enjoy it. I enjoyed this show.

1003
00:44:48,719 --> 00:44:51,239
Speaker 1: Hopefully you all did too. And if you need more help,

1004
00:44:51,280 --> 00:44:53,520
Speaker 1: you can always go to bettingcros dot com. Don't forget

1005
00:44:53,719 --> 00:44:57,000
Speaker 1: to check out that over undergame on Sleeper at Sleeper

1006
00:44:57,040 --> 00:44:59,480
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1007
00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:02,600
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1008
00:45:02,640 --> 00:45:04,560
Speaker 1: go win some money, play a little over under, have

1009
00:45:04,640 --> 00:45:07,240
Speaker 1: some fun, and don't forget always check out bet MGM,

1010
00:45:07,280 --> 00:45:10,080
Speaker 1: the King of sportsbooks. Download the bet mgm app now

1011
00:45:10,480 --> 00:45:13,279
Speaker 1: and go ahead and start placing your wagers. That'll do

1012
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:14,879
Speaker 1: it for us, But the story of the game goes

1013
00:45:14,920 --> 00:45:18,040
Speaker 1: on for Pat and Matt. I'm Joey P. We'll see

1014
00:45:18,040 --> 00:45:18,960
Speaker 1: you next on Kids