WEBVTT - When the Robots Take Over… from Cautionary Tales 0:00:15.356 --> 0:00:15.796 Pushkin. 0:00:20.436 --> 0:00:23.556 Hey, it's Jacob. I recently was a guest co host 0:00:23.636 --> 0:00:27.636 on another Pushkin podcast shows called Cautionary Tales. The host 0:00:27.716 --> 0:00:30.356 is Tim Harford, and it was a lot of fun 0:00:30.436 --> 0:00:32.556 and I thought you might enjoy hearing it while What's 0:00:32.596 --> 0:00:35.156 Your Problem is on a break, so we'll be back 0:00:35.196 --> 0:00:37.476 with What's Your Problem in a few weeks. In the meantime, 0:00:37.596 --> 0:00:39.996 I hope you like this episode of Cautionary Tales. 0:00:43.036 --> 0:00:47.796 Let's play around Warders Studios. It sounds very elvin. 0:00:48.716 --> 0:00:50.916 I always think of David Bowie when I think of Wardog. 0:00:50.956 --> 0:00:53.396 In one of his early songs talks about bright light, 0:00:53.476 --> 0:00:54.796 soho wardour Street. 0:00:55.636 --> 0:00:59.196 Bowie himself has an elfin aspect. 0:00:59.556 --> 0:01:03.196 He said he does is breakthrough gig at Aylesbury, my hometown, 0:01:03.676 --> 0:01:06.716 which basically is about the only thing remarkable about Aylesbury 0:01:06.756 --> 0:01:08.116 is well and also. 0:01:08.076 --> 0:01:10.436 Home of Tim Harford. As the plaque. 0:01:09.996 --> 0:01:13.316 Says, yeah, they've got a statue for Bowie, not yet 0:01:13.316 --> 0:01:17.716 for me. I don't why shore we go Okay, let's go, okay, 0:01:17.756 --> 0:01:43.716 I'm ready. Hello and welcome back to another episode of 0:01:43.796 --> 0:01:47.116 Cautionary Questions, our first of twenty twenty four. I am, 0:01:47.196 --> 0:01:50.716 of course Tim Harford. You are our loyal listeners. You've 0:01:50.716 --> 0:01:55.396 been sending in your burning questions on money, technology, economics, 0:01:55.396 --> 0:01:58.036 and problem solving, and thank you so much to everyone 0:01:58.316 --> 0:02:01.956 who's done so. And today is the day I do 0:02:02.036 --> 0:02:04.876 my best to answer them. And thankfully I won't be 0:02:04.916 --> 0:02:07.716 alone in this endeavor. Here to help me out both 0:02:07.756 --> 0:02:09.516 of the questions and I think with some of the 0:02:09.556 --> 0:02:14.956 answers is the brilliant, brilliant Jacob Goldstein, the host of 0:02:15.076 --> 0:02:18.956 Pushkin podcast What's Your Problem, author of the book Money, 0:02:19.156 --> 0:02:22.076 The True Story of a Made Up Thing. Jacob was 0:02:22.116 --> 0:02:25.236 my inaugural Cautionary Questions co host. Jacob's wonderful to. 0:02:25.196 --> 0:02:27.756 Have you back, Tim. It's an honor. Hi. 0:02:28.476 --> 0:02:30.196 So we should just get home with the questions because 0:02:30.196 --> 0:02:32.316 we always have so many and so much to say. So, 0:02:32.716 --> 0:02:34.836 what have you got in real big bag of listener 0:02:34.916 --> 0:02:35.636 questions for me? 0:02:36.236 --> 0:02:40.636 Let's start with a question from Alex in Melbourne, Australia. 0:02:40.716 --> 0:02:45.156 Alex writes, I work with artificial intelligence image generation software 0:02:45.236 --> 0:02:49.156 almost daily now, and I'm quickly seeing how so much 0:02:49.236 --> 0:02:52.196 of my workforce and processes can either be sped up 0:02:52.276 --> 0:02:55.956 or entirely replaced by AI, and this makes me nervous. 0:02:56.716 --> 0:03:00.036 And then he asks about universal basic income, right, this 0:03:00.116 --> 0:03:03.556 idea of a government giving all its citizens' money, and 0:03:03.596 --> 0:03:05.636 he says it seems for the first time that computers 0:03:05.636 --> 0:03:09.516 and software will actually replace jobs in a deeply concerned way, 0:03:09.836 --> 0:03:12.996 which is both exciting and terrifying. What are your thoughts 0:03:13.036 --> 0:03:16.236 on UBI universal basic income as a solution to an 0:03:16.276 --> 0:03:21.316 AI crisis and the widespread philosophical and economic implications of this. 0:03:22.596 --> 0:03:26.836 I love this question. I mean, it's so big, and 0:03:26.876 --> 0:03:28.436 I think the first thing to say is we don't 0:03:28.476 --> 0:03:33.276 really have any idea. If what Alex is thinking about 0:03:33.556 --> 0:03:37.196 comes true, and if most people just have no economic value, 0:03:37.196 --> 0:03:39.316 they have value as human beings, have value as members 0:03:39.316 --> 0:03:41.476 of society, but there's nothing that they could actually sell 0:03:41.516 --> 0:03:46.196 their labor to do, then that's completely uncharted territory. We've 0:03:46.236 --> 0:03:50.116 never been anywhere like that before, so everything we do 0:03:50.196 --> 0:03:51.196 is kind of speculative. 0:03:51.676 --> 0:03:54.796 We've feared it for a long time, right, We've have 0:03:54.996 --> 0:03:59.156 two hundred years of being afraid of technological unemployment. And 0:03:59.156 --> 0:04:04.156 my prior on this is to be somewhat skeptical. Right, Like, 0:04:04.356 --> 0:04:08.356 clearly there can be some large number of people who 0:04:08.396 --> 0:04:10.356 lose their jobs. We should be concerned about that, and 0:04:10.356 --> 0:04:12.596 we should think about how to mitigate that. But the 0:04:12.756 --> 0:04:16.556 idea of more or less everybody losing their jobs I'm 0:04:16.596 --> 0:04:19.036 skeptical of for the simple reason that it hasn't happened 0:04:19.036 --> 0:04:22.436 in two hundred years of incredible technological progress. And right now, 0:04:22.876 --> 0:04:27.236 after decades of extreme technological progress, in the US, unemployment 0:04:27.316 --> 0:04:30.356 is below four percent, the share of working age people 0:04:30.396 --> 0:04:33.356 who are working is near all time highs, And so 0:04:33.596 --> 0:04:37.756 somehow we keep coming up with new things to do 0:04:37.836 --> 0:04:40.636 for money, no matter how many things computers can do. 0:04:40.796 --> 0:04:44.196 And so my first thought is, I don't think we're 0:04:44.196 --> 0:04:46.756 going to have everybody losing their jobs to AI. I 0:04:46.796 --> 0:04:48.436 definitely could be wrong, but that's what I think. 0:04:48.516 --> 0:04:52.076 No, I think that's a good working assumption. If you 0:04:52.116 --> 0:04:55.636 think back a few centuries, basically, almost all the labor 0:04:55.676 --> 0:04:58.676 that people did, they might wash their clothes occasionally, Well, 0:04:58.676 --> 0:05:00.996 that's been outsourced to the washing machines that spend a 0:05:01.036 --> 0:05:04.516 lot of time moving water around, just drinking water, cooking water, 0:05:04.956 --> 0:05:09.516 throwing out human excrement. That's all now handled by automated systems. 0:05:09.836 --> 0:05:13.236 Digging people did a lot of digging, right, pulling a plow. 0:05:13.516 --> 0:05:16.916 Almost everything we used to do is now done by machines, 0:05:16.956 --> 0:05:19.396 but somehow we still all have jobs. Let's at least 0:05:19.396 --> 0:05:21.476 accept the premise that maybe this time it might be 0:05:21.516 --> 0:05:26.156 different because the robots are doing everything. There's still material prosperity. 0:05:26.356 --> 0:05:29.356 There's food out there, in all the services we could 0:05:29.356 --> 0:05:32.556 possibly want. We just have to find some system whereby 0:05:32.956 --> 0:05:36.076 the humans who have no economic value get to enjoy 0:05:36.116 --> 0:05:38.756 all this cool stuff that's being produced by the machines. 0:05:39.276 --> 0:05:44.876 Yeah, and you know, technological prosperity has given us in 0:05:44.956 --> 0:05:49.076 the developed world ubi for old people, right in the US, 0:05:49.156 --> 0:05:51.876 as in every developed country as far as I know, 0:05:52.396 --> 0:05:54.236 once you get to some age, if you are a 0:05:54.316 --> 0:05:57.516 citizen and you have worked, yeah, the government gives you 0:05:57.556 --> 0:06:00.636 money yea every month until you die, right, and so 0:06:00.796 --> 0:06:05.916 you could imagine a kind of creeping extension of that. Certainly, 0:06:05.996 --> 0:06:08.396 right now they're not talking about lowering the retirement age 0:06:08.396 --> 0:06:11.236 in the US. They're about raising it as in many countries. 0:06:11.356 --> 0:06:13.196 Yeah, raising it in the UK as well, But it's 0:06:13.236 --> 0:06:16.156 still a long way away from life expectancies. My recollection 0:06:16.236 --> 0:06:18.636 is that when Bismarck introduced the first pension, which was 0:06:18.676 --> 0:06:22.996 in Germany in the late nineteenth century, I think the 0:06:23.116 --> 0:06:26.796 pension started to be paid at the age sixty seven 0:06:26.996 --> 0:06:30.596 and the life expectancy was sixty three, you. 0:06:30.596 --> 0:06:33.076 Get negative four years in expectation. 0:06:33.396 --> 0:06:35.676 People who survive long enough to claim any pension at 0:06:35.676 --> 0:06:38.116 all are already exceptional. So that would be like having 0:06:38.156 --> 0:06:41.276 a pension today that started at age ninety. Like some 0:06:41.276 --> 0:06:43.916 people will get it by most bad road. But actually 0:06:43.956 --> 0:06:46.636 a lot of people could easily collect thirty years of pension, 0:06:46.796 --> 0:06:51.036 certainly twenty years. So they're living a large proportion of 0:06:51.076 --> 0:06:53.596 their adult life receiving money from the state, and they're 0:06:53.596 --> 0:06:57.076 also receiving money from their own savings, their own investments, 0:06:57.116 --> 0:07:00.316 which might be a replacement for UBI. Maybe we all 0:07:00.356 --> 0:07:02.876 just have shares in the robots instead, we have shares 0:07:02.876 --> 0:07:04.716 in Google or whatever, and that's how we get paid. 0:07:05.076 --> 0:07:07.596 Yes, whether that is mediated by the government or not 0:07:07.796 --> 0:07:11.236 looks somewhat different. Right, Either the government is taxing the 0:07:11.316 --> 0:07:15.276 owners of in Nvidia and Google stock and distributing the money, 0:07:15.436 --> 0:07:19.276 or everybody owns Google and Nvidia stock. There is the 0:07:19.356 --> 0:07:23.716 piece of this which is about the non financial parts 0:07:23.836 --> 0:07:26.316 of work, right, I mean, there's a political economy piece, 0:07:26.396 --> 0:07:28.116 the sort of bridge. How do we get from here 0:07:28.156 --> 0:07:31.476 to there? If that happens and that's complicated and maybe ugly. 0:07:31.716 --> 0:07:34.356 If the robots can do all of the stuff the 0:07:34.396 --> 0:07:38.196 computers can do it, there's no economic reason why humans 0:07:38.196 --> 0:07:42.196 couldn't just receive whatever an allowance they're given ten robots, 0:07:42.436 --> 0:07:45.156 or they're given ten thousand dollars a month to spend 0:07:45.276 --> 0:07:47.156 or whatever they like. There's no economic reason why that 0:07:47.196 --> 0:07:49.476 couldn't happen. But I think what you're getting at is 0:07:49.516 --> 0:07:52.036 what does it do to us if we're in that situation? 0:07:52.276 --> 0:07:55.316 Yeah? Yeah, Like I don't want to not have a job. 0:07:55.636 --> 0:07:58.196 I recognize that I am fortunate to have a job 0:07:58.276 --> 0:08:01.676 that I enjoy, that I derive a part of my 0:08:01.756 --> 0:08:04.956 identity from. I recognize that for many, in fact, probably 0:08:04.956 --> 0:08:07.756 most people, a job is not that it's some unpleasant 0:08:07.756 --> 0:08:10.516 thing they do because they need the money, and if 0:08:10.516 --> 0:08:13.036 they got more money, they would quit their job. Well, 0:08:13.076 --> 0:08:15.356 you probably know the kind of empirical evidence on this 0:08:15.436 --> 0:08:18.156 better than I do. Like, people have looked at lottery winners, right, 0:08:18.236 --> 0:08:20.876 and my sense is it's not great for you to 0:08:20.916 --> 0:08:23.076 win the lottery and quit your job. It doesn't actually 0:08:23.156 --> 0:08:23.956 make you happier. 0:08:24.116 --> 0:08:26.676 Actually, the evidence on lottery winners is a bit mixed, 0:08:26.716 --> 0:08:29.316 and I think slightly we hear all the disaster stories 0:08:29.316 --> 0:08:30.076 of lottery winners. 0:08:30.196 --> 0:08:32.556 Actually, it's great to win the lottery. That's amazing. Is 0:08:32.556 --> 0:08:32.916 that true. 0:08:33.076 --> 0:08:35.556 I think it's fine. Yes, it's just fine to win 0:08:35.556 --> 0:08:38.516 the lottery. Is not really a problem to win the lottery. 0:08:38.596 --> 0:08:40.476 In my vague recollection I wrote about this a couple 0:08:40.516 --> 0:08:44.116 of years ago. But we may not all want a job, 0:08:44.596 --> 0:08:47.836 but we all want something to do. We all want 0:08:47.956 --> 0:08:51.596 to feel useful, we all want a sense of some 0:08:51.676 --> 0:08:54.556 kind of purpose. We all want, I think, that experience 0:08:54.556 --> 0:08:56.796 of mastery, that experience of knowing that you can do 0:08:56.876 --> 0:08:59.996 something that not everybody can do. Those things don't have 0:09:00.036 --> 0:09:01.276 to come from a job, but for a lot of 0:09:01.316 --> 0:09:02.556 people they do come from a job. 0:09:02.996 --> 0:09:06.956 Yeah. For me, in my narrow provincial experience of life, 0:09:07.396 --> 0:09:10.756 it's frankly hard to imagine and getting those things without 0:09:10.796 --> 0:09:11.996 a job. Yeah. 0:09:12.036 --> 0:09:15.156 It comes back to my initial reaction to Alex's terrific question, 0:09:15.196 --> 0:09:18.116 which is this is such unknown territory that we can 0:09:18.156 --> 0:09:20.956 only really speculate. But I think you and I jcub 0:09:20.996 --> 0:09:24.156 are in agreement that the fundamental issue here is not economic. 0:09:24.636 --> 0:09:27.036 It's really to do with our souls. How would we 0:09:27.116 --> 0:09:30.316 react if our desire for master. We our desire for meaning, 0:09:30.316 --> 0:09:33.356 our desire to feel useful if that had to be 0:09:33.476 --> 0:09:36.996 satisfied without having a job, and what would we do 0:09:37.036 --> 0:09:39.636 and could we cope? And I don't know, I. 0:09:39.556 --> 0:09:42.236 Mean, Harford, if the robots come and take our jobs, 0:09:42.316 --> 0:09:44.356 let's just you and me make a podcast for free. 0:09:44.476 --> 0:09:48.556 I'm in. I'll commit right now in the robot Utopia 0:09:48.556 --> 0:09:52.156 apocalypse to making a weekly podcast with you for free. 0:09:52.236 --> 0:09:52.516 Deal. 0:09:52.716 --> 0:09:55.636 Sorry, we have no more time. You might give in 0:09:55.876 --> 0:10:02.516 your robot overlord. Give us another question, Hello, Race Ubinov, 0:10:03.076 --> 0:10:05.036 I would like to ask, with the onset of AI, 0:10:05.636 --> 0:10:09.836 what is the next cautionary tale you anticipate talking about 0:10:09.996 --> 0:10:10.916 in the years to come? 0:10:11.236 --> 0:10:14.516 Hello Ivanough, I have just finished the first draft of 0:10:14.596 --> 0:10:19.556 a script about the coming of AI, and without giving 0:10:19.596 --> 0:10:23.396 too much away, the cautionary note is about what happens 0:10:23.436 --> 0:10:28.276 when automation gets so good that we lose our own skills. 0:10:28.476 --> 0:10:31.916 We hand over controlled the machine, and then how do 0:10:31.996 --> 0:10:34.916 we respond when the machine says, actually, this one's too hard? 0:10:35.876 --> 0:10:38.516 Could you take over again? Suddenly we're back at the 0:10:38.556 --> 0:10:40.716 wheel and we're out of practice. 0:10:40.876 --> 0:10:43.436 Harford, it's not another plane crash, is it. Don't you 0:10:43.436 --> 0:10:45.636 have a moratory. I'm undering plane crashes at this point. 0:10:45.636 --> 0:10:46.836 Because it sounds like that. 0:10:46.756 --> 0:10:49.156 I'm going to say nothing more fair enough. Let's go 0:10:49.196 --> 0:10:49.716 for a break. 0:10:50.876 --> 0:11:00.036 All right, Yeah, we're back. 0:11:00.236 --> 0:11:04.196 I'm talking to Jacob Goldstein, the host of What's Your Problem, 0:11:04.476 --> 0:11:08.756 and we are doing a Cautionary Questions Q and A episode. 0:11:09.236 --> 0:11:11.916 Jacob has the questions. Jacob's also helping with the answers. 0:11:12.316 --> 0:11:15.396 I'm really sepless to requirements here, but I'm doing my best, Jacob. 0:11:15.436 --> 0:11:16.236 What have you got for me? 0:11:16.756 --> 0:11:20.796 Tim? Our next question comes from Adam, who writes, Hi, 0:11:21.276 --> 0:11:24.476 I have a question about investing in cryptocurrency. Oh dear, 0:11:24.836 --> 0:11:28.156 oh dear, come on give it to them. Okay. It's 0:11:28.156 --> 0:11:32.036 an interesting one. Traditionally, when buying shares in a company, 0:11:32.236 --> 0:11:35.236 you would be supporting that company to grow, create a 0:11:35.236 --> 0:11:38.316 new product, or enter a new retail space. This would 0:11:38.316 --> 0:11:42.156 hopefully create jobs and new products. When people invest money 0:11:42.196 --> 0:11:46.036 into cryptocurrency or any currency for that matter, isn't that 0:11:46.116 --> 0:11:49.516 money just sitting around not doing anything until you withdraw it. 0:11:49.876 --> 0:11:53.196 Would investing in crypto be bad for the economy compared 0:11:53.236 --> 0:11:54.916 with investing in businesses? 0:11:55.676 --> 0:11:59.556 This is a deep question. I really like it. It is 0:12:00.236 --> 0:12:03.276 as the author of the wonderful book Money, The True 0:12:03.316 --> 0:12:05.516 Story of a Maid Art Thing. I am sure you 0:12:05.556 --> 0:12:07.756 have thoughts, Jacob. They may have a first crack and 0:12:07.916 --> 0:12:09.076 you can tell me everything I've made. 0:12:09.236 --> 0:12:09.676 Yeah. Yeah. 0:12:09.716 --> 0:12:12.596 So let's say you buy bitcoin or whatever, and then 0:12:12.596 --> 0:12:16.196 the money's just sitting there because bitcoin is not building anything. 0:12:16.236 --> 0:12:19.476 You're not buying investment in, say a road building company, 0:12:19.556 --> 0:12:21.236 or you're not buying an investment in Google, which is 0:12:21.236 --> 0:12:24.916 developing new technology. There's one of two possible things that happens. 0:12:25.236 --> 0:12:29.396 So most likely is whoever you bought the bitcoin from 0:12:29.756 --> 0:12:33.156 now has your money. Well, now it's their money, and 0:12:33.196 --> 0:12:34.756 then they're going to do something with that money. So 0:12:34.796 --> 0:12:37.676 maybe they then buy shares in Google, or they then 0:12:37.716 --> 0:12:40.356 set up a business, or they will then go on 0:12:40.436 --> 0:12:43.196 to do something with that money, or they'll lend it 0:12:43.196 --> 0:12:45.516 to somebody else and that person will do something with it. 0:12:45.556 --> 0:12:49.156 Eventually the money will find its way into some productive investment. 0:12:49.476 --> 0:12:52.196 The fact that you bought bitcoin off somebody does not 0:12:52.436 --> 0:12:55.236 mean that they won't then do something useful with the money. 0:12:55.316 --> 0:12:56.956 But then let's say for some reason they just go, 0:12:57.036 --> 0:12:59.156 you know what, I'm just going to sit on this money. 0:12:59.196 --> 0:13:01.276 It's just dollars. I'm going to stick them under the mattress. 0:13:01.516 --> 0:13:04.916 I guess a bitcoin guy might do that. That would 0:13:05.036 --> 0:13:08.716 reduce inflationary pressures on the economy, which is something we 0:13:08.756 --> 0:13:12.996 want anyway. And if inflationary pressures are reduced too much, 0:13:13.476 --> 0:13:16.116 the Federal Reserve could then go, you know what, guys, 0:13:16.796 --> 0:13:20.796 we should probably print some money or otherwise stimulate the economy. Actually, 0:13:20.796 --> 0:13:23.236 the worst thing that could possibly happen is that the 0:13:23.236 --> 0:13:27.156 money gets invested in buying more computers that could be 0:13:27.156 --> 0:13:28.996 put to better use, but in fact just end up 0:13:29.036 --> 0:13:31.156 doing bitcoin mining. I guess what I'm saying is, as 0:13:31.156 --> 0:13:33.636 long as they don't spend it on bitcoin mining computers, 0:13:33.676 --> 0:13:35.836 it's totally fine. Well what am I missing? 0:13:36.116 --> 0:13:38.236 I went around the same track as you went around. 0:13:38.356 --> 0:13:43.596 And you know, different cryptocurrencies have different methods of regulation, right, 0:13:43.636 --> 0:13:48.516 So Bitcoin by design is this very energy intensive computing 0:13:48.596 --> 0:13:51.636 process in order to mine bitcoin, and that is, in 0:13:51.676 --> 0:13:55.436 my opinion, a bad outcome. Socially, I agree, because you 0:13:55.436 --> 0:13:58.116 could imagine a world where maintaining the bitcoin network was 0:13:58.156 --> 0:14:00.636 socially desirable. In the world as it has evolved, I 0:14:00.636 --> 0:14:03.676 don't find it particularly socially desirable, but at this point, 0:14:03.716 --> 0:14:06.396 I don't think most of the money going into bitcoin 0:14:06.516 --> 0:14:08.876 is going to miners, right, there's a large stock of 0:14:09.236 --> 0:14:11.996 coin that exists in the world. I mean, an interesting 0:14:12.036 --> 0:14:16.436 thing about money is it almost never sleeps. It keeps going, 0:14:16.556 --> 0:14:20.316 and so you can always ask what happens next, you know, 0:14:20.356 --> 0:14:23.036 with the stock market, sometimes people talk about money on 0:14:23.116 --> 0:14:25.356 the sidelines when they're like, well, the stock market can 0:14:25.356 --> 0:14:27.036 go up somewhere because there's a lot of cash on 0:14:27.076 --> 0:14:31.716 the sidelines. And there's this famous billionaire investor, Cliff Asnes. 0:14:31.996 --> 0:14:33.796 He's an interesting guy. You got a PhD from the 0:14:33.876 --> 0:14:37.876 University of Chicago, studied with Gene Fama, famous economist, and 0:14:37.996 --> 0:14:41.116 Cliff Asnes gets driven up the wall when people say 0:14:41.116 --> 0:14:43.796 cash on the sidelines for the same reason you just said, Right, 0:14:43.836 --> 0:14:47.916 Like every time somebody buys a share of stock, someone 0:14:47.916 --> 0:14:50.356 else is selling it, right, So like the money is 0:14:50.956 --> 0:14:54.236 changing hands, the stock is changing hands. But like there 0:14:54.276 --> 0:14:56.036 are no sidelines with money. 0:14:56.116 --> 0:14:59.796 Yeah, and even if someone puts just cash in a 0:14:59.876 --> 0:15:03.076 checking account, well then now the bank has money, and 0:15:03.396 --> 0:15:04.956 you can bet the bank is going to want to 0:15:04.956 --> 0:15:07.876 do something with that money, something productive. And even if 0:15:07.876 --> 0:15:09.836 they doesn't put it in the bank, as I say, 0:15:10.116 --> 0:15:13.756 it's a dramatris. Well, even then, the Federals could always 0:15:13.796 --> 0:15:14.316 put money. 0:15:14.476 --> 0:15:17.116 Yeah, the stock of money is not fixed, right. I 0:15:17.156 --> 0:15:20.956 think there's an assumption in the question I think goes 0:15:21.036 --> 0:15:24.716 back to the pre modern era, the era before the 0:15:24.796 --> 0:15:27.636 nineteen thirties when money was based on gold or silver 0:15:27.756 --> 0:15:30.676 and it was finite. Right, there was a fixed amount 0:15:30.716 --> 0:15:33.196 of gold and silver in the world in those days. Indeed, 0:15:33.316 --> 0:15:36.956 if you sat on money, you were effectively reducing the 0:15:36.996 --> 0:15:39.396 supply of money in the world. But to your point, 0:15:39.396 --> 0:15:41.956 the supply of money in the world is as big 0:15:41.996 --> 0:15:44.196 as the Central Bank wants it to be, and so 0:15:44.556 --> 0:15:47.796 it's not a meaningful constraint on economic growth. So the 0:15:47.876 --> 0:15:50.196 ultimate answer to the question is if you are just 0:15:50.516 --> 0:15:53.156 sitting on money, it's not really going to have an 0:15:53.156 --> 0:15:54.556 effect on the broader economy. 0:15:54.676 --> 0:15:56.476 Well, I think we've come to agreement. Hopefully that makes 0:15:56.516 --> 0:15:59.036 sense to Adam. Next question. 0:16:00.036 --> 0:16:04.396 Our next question comes from doctor Yvonne Couch, who is 0:16:04.996 --> 0:16:11.036 Associate Professor of Neuroimmunology Alzheimer's Research UK Fellow, Associate Research 0:16:11.076 --> 0:16:15.916 Fellow at Saint Hilda's College, Stipendary Lecturer at Somerville College, 0:16:16.636 --> 0:16:17.676 University of Oxford. 0:16:18.076 --> 0:16:20.396 Yeah, University of Oxford. I know, well, one of my 0:16:20.436 --> 0:16:22.156 sisters went to St. Hilda's College and one of my 0:16:22.196 --> 0:16:25.116 sisters went to Somerville College, so this feels very much 0:16:25.116 --> 0:16:27.596 in the family. So what does Dr Couch got to say? 0:16:28.716 --> 0:16:33.116 She writes, my question was vaguely economics based, although probably 0:16:33.156 --> 0:16:38.436 not very is the way we currently fund science feasible 0:16:38.516 --> 0:16:41.996 going forward? Do we just have too many scientists and 0:16:42.076 --> 0:16:47.196 not enough resources? All the best, Yvonne, oh love it. 0:16:47.556 --> 0:16:49.796 Let me throw out a few thoughts. Then I think 0:16:49.836 --> 0:16:53.636 that probably there is a problem with the way we 0:16:53.676 --> 0:16:56.356 fund science, But there's no one way that we fund science. 0:16:56.436 --> 0:16:59.276 You have university research, you have various grands, various sources 0:16:59.276 --> 0:17:03.036 of funding, philanthropy and so on. You also have private 0:17:03.076 --> 0:17:08.196 sector research, which is often incentivized by the patent system. 0:17:08.356 --> 0:17:10.756 And then you have big block grants that are handed 0:17:10.796 --> 0:17:15.196 out by agencies such as the National Institutes for Health. 0:17:15.596 --> 0:17:18.796 So there are lots of different ways that science gets funded. 0:17:19.716 --> 0:17:23.996 A couple of things that worry me is that, first 0:17:24.036 --> 0:17:27.276 of all, there's a big incentive to make really incremental 0:17:27.356 --> 0:17:33.876 improvements rather than to take risks. There's a great economics 0:17:33.876 --> 0:17:37.756 paper studying scientists who are funded by the National Institutes 0:17:37.796 --> 0:17:41.276 for Health, which is a wonderful institution, very important, and 0:17:41.596 --> 0:17:45.076 scientists who on paper seem to be the same that're 0:17:45.076 --> 0:17:48.116 on the same career track, got very similar publication records, 0:17:48.396 --> 0:17:51.756 and they are instead funded by a private foundation called 0:17:51.756 --> 0:17:55.516 the Howard Hughes Medical Institute. Listeners who want to hear 0:17:55.556 --> 0:17:58.556 more about Howard Hughes and the Howard Hughes biography can 0:17:58.676 --> 0:18:00.676 go to the back catalog of caution details. So the 0:18:00.676 --> 0:18:04.916 Howard Hughes Medical Institute basically takes risks. It wants people 0:18:05.076 --> 0:18:08.116 to do something new. It's happy with a high risk 0:18:08.156 --> 0:18:10.316 of failure as long as there's some chance of a 0:18:10.476 --> 0:18:16.996 real breakthrough success. And this particular paper studying the results 0:18:16.996 --> 0:18:20.076 that come from these two funding systems basically finds that 0:18:20.236 --> 0:18:23.196 the grant funders get what they pay for. So the 0:18:23.276 --> 0:18:26.476 National Institutes for Health get a high success rate, but 0:18:26.556 --> 0:18:29.516 it's often quite incremental progress. And the Howard Hughes Medical 0:18:29.556 --> 0:18:32.716 Institute has lots and lots of failures, but when it succeeds, 0:18:32.716 --> 0:18:35.876 it really succeeds. And they these are hugely important papers, 0:18:36.196 --> 0:18:40.756 and I just feel that we're not deliberate enough about saying, well, 0:18:40.796 --> 0:18:46.236 how much of our funding ecosystem should be aiming at 0:18:46.316 --> 0:18:49.436 kind of venture capital style for really big wins, and 0:18:49.476 --> 0:18:51.676 how much should be incremental. I think those are not 0:18:51.796 --> 0:18:54.396 the sorts of questions that get asked, So that's one 0:18:54.396 --> 0:18:56.956 of the things that worries me. What's your take, Jacob. 0:18:57.476 --> 0:18:59.756 One of the things that I have read is that 0:18:59.836 --> 0:19:03.676 over time the average age of grant recipients from the 0:19:03.796 --> 0:19:06.436 NIH has gone up and up and up. So kind 0:19:06.436 --> 0:19:08.796 of you just think of this whole universe as getting 0:19:08.836 --> 0:19:12.476 all and more risk averse and more kind of bureaucratic. 0:19:13.076 --> 0:19:16.516 There is an interesting set of counter pressures I think 0:19:16.636 --> 0:19:19.876 rising up partly out of Silicon Valley. I don't know 0:19:19.876 --> 0:19:23.796 if you've come across the work of Patrick Hollison and 0:19:23.876 --> 0:19:26.836 his brother. They're from Ireland. They found it Striped. They're 0:19:26.996 --> 0:19:30.356 very rich. Stripe is a big company that does basically 0:19:30.396 --> 0:19:33.916 payment stuff online. They have a really interesting set of 0:19:34.436 --> 0:19:39.276 kind of philanthropic endeavors around the idea of progress. You know, 0:19:39.276 --> 0:19:42.356 they're trying to create a kind of field of progress 0:19:42.436 --> 0:19:46.556 studies that is, it's very meta. What are the conditions 0:19:46.676 --> 0:19:51.076 that best foster technological and scientific progress? 0:19:51.516 --> 0:19:54.156 But this question from doctor Couch, he is very massive. Yes, 0:19:54.156 --> 0:19:55.796 it's very much progress studies, isn't it. 0:19:56.236 --> 0:19:56.476 Yes. 0:19:56.716 --> 0:20:00.356 There is this institute in the Bay Area called the 0:20:00.516 --> 0:20:04.676 ARC Institute that hires leading scientists. The basic idea is 0:20:04.996 --> 0:20:10.276 give talented people freedom and money, right and encourage them 0:20:10.316 --> 0:20:13.356 to take big swings. And they are interested, you know, 0:20:13.436 --> 0:20:16.116 not just in outcomes, but in new tools. Right. Again, 0:20:16.396 --> 0:20:19.236 continuing on the nerdy thing, like if you take a 0:20:19.236 --> 0:20:22.156 tool like Crisper. Crisper is an intermediate tool that allows 0:20:22.196 --> 0:20:24.476 people to cut up a genome. Basically, we just had 0:20:24.516 --> 0:20:27.916 the first transplant from an animal into a human a 0:20:27.916 --> 0:20:29.996 few weeks ago because of Crisper. We have the first 0:20:30.396 --> 0:20:33.796 treatments for sickle cell disease because of Crisper. So I 0:20:33.876 --> 0:20:38.596 do think there is a wave of people trying to 0:20:38.716 --> 0:20:43.236 rethink scientific funding. There is a bottom line aspect to 0:20:43.356 --> 0:20:46.836 this question from doctor Couch that I don't feel like 0:20:46.916 --> 0:20:48.636 I know enough to answer, and I'm curious if you do. 0:20:48.676 --> 0:20:51.396 I mean, the question, is the way we currently fund 0:20:51.436 --> 0:20:55.556 science feasible going forward? There is a yes no version 0:20:55.596 --> 0:20:57.796 of the answer. Do you think you know? Is it? 0:20:58.476 --> 0:21:00.836 I don't know the answer, but I guess I don't 0:21:00.876 --> 0:21:04.316 know either. Another thing that concerns me on this, which 0:21:04.516 --> 0:21:08.316 is potentially really existential is the question of how we 0:21:08.396 --> 0:21:13.876 fund new antibiotics. I think this points to a real 0:21:13.916 --> 0:21:17.156 weakness in the ecosystem of research funding. So if you 0:21:17.196 --> 0:21:20.396 think about the basic way we develop drugs, the fundamental 0:21:20.636 --> 0:21:23.916 incentive is the patent. So a drug company spends a 0:21:23.916 --> 0:21:26.876 lot of money, tries to develop drugs. Some of them work, 0:21:26.916 --> 0:21:28.516 some of them fail, a lot of them fail, but 0:21:28.636 --> 0:21:31.316 in the end you have a drug and the deal 0:21:31.476 --> 0:21:34.276 is we give you this artificial monopoly called a patent, 0:21:34.836 --> 0:21:37.556 and it will only last for a certain amount of time, 0:21:37.636 --> 0:21:39.276 which is kind of a problem because it takes so 0:21:39.276 --> 0:21:42.196 long to develop the drugs. Maybe the patent's nearly expired. 0:21:42.596 --> 0:21:45.196 You can charge an incredible amount for these drugs for 0:21:45.236 --> 0:21:47.796 a while, and then your patents will run out, and 0:21:47.836 --> 0:21:49.916 then loads of as people will make the same drug 0:21:49.916 --> 0:21:52.596 and it'll come down in value. For example, Viagra, you 0:21:52.636 --> 0:21:54.516 know you could sell this for a huge amount of money, 0:21:54.516 --> 0:21:57.076 and now Viagra is off patent and anyone can make 0:21:57.076 --> 0:22:00.396 a generic Viagra. So that's the incentive that we're given 0:22:00.436 --> 0:22:03.396