1 00:00:15,396 --> 00:00:24,676 Speaker 1: Pushkin from Pushkin Industries. This is Deep Background to show 2 00:00:24,716 --> 00:00:28,076 Speaker 1: where we explore the stories behind the stories in the news. 3 00:00:28,636 --> 00:00:33,196 Speaker 1: I'm Noah Feldman. One of the important stories that's come 4 00:00:33,276 --> 00:00:36,836 Speaker 1: out of COVID is the disruption of the global supply chain. 5 00:00:37,396 --> 00:00:41,076 Speaker 1: If you've recently tried to buy a new car or 6 00:00:41,116 --> 00:00:45,156 Speaker 1: some furniture, you know all about this problem. The system 7 00:00:45,196 --> 00:00:49,516 Speaker 1: of making and distributing goods around the world is not 8 00:00:49,596 --> 00:00:53,876 Speaker 1: working quite the way we're accustomed to it working, and 9 00:00:54,196 --> 00:00:58,156 Speaker 1: we're not exactly clear on how to fix it. For 10 00:00:58,236 --> 00:01:01,436 Speaker 1: today's show, we wanted to speak to someone could explain 11 00:01:01,556 --> 00:01:05,116 Speaker 1: what's going on to us and deepen our understanding and 12 00:01:05,236 --> 00:01:10,116 Speaker 1: knowledge of this headline topic, supply chain disruption. I'm very 13 00:01:10,116 --> 00:01:13,116 Speaker 1: glad to say that our fantastic team here at Deep 14 00:01:13,116 --> 00:01:17,596 Speaker 1: Background found someone who could do exactly that. Hannah Kane 15 00:01:17,756 --> 00:01:21,076 Speaker 1: is the founder and CEO of a Loom, a global 16 00:01:21,196 --> 00:01:25,676 Speaker 1: supply chain company based in California. She has decades of 17 00:01:25,756 --> 00:01:28,756 Speaker 1: experience in supply chain management, and I'm going to talk 18 00:01:28,796 --> 00:01:32,436 Speaker 1: to her about what's causing supply chain slowdowns, what we 19 00:01:32,476 --> 00:01:36,036 Speaker 1: should think of the supply chain as actually being the 20 00:01:36,116 --> 00:01:39,076 Speaker 1: role that government has to play in this and how 21 00:01:39,196 --> 00:01:48,676 Speaker 1: we make our way out of it over time. Hannah, 22 00:01:48,716 --> 00:01:51,596 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining me. So, when we 23 00:01:52,356 --> 00:01:58,116 Speaker 1: entered this COVID world, many people who were consumers spent 24 00:01:58,636 --> 00:02:02,116 Speaker 1: exactly zero time ever thinking about the words supply chain. 25 00:02:02,636 --> 00:02:05,036 Speaker 1: I'm sure if one ran any kind of a company 26 00:02:05,076 --> 00:02:08,996 Speaker 1: that made a product, these were everyday, day to day concerns. 27 00:02:09,956 --> 00:02:12,876 Speaker 1: But the sense from the end consumer's perspective was it's 28 00:02:12,916 --> 00:02:15,716 Speaker 1: all under control, right, We're convinced there are people out 29 00:02:15,756 --> 00:02:17,756 Speaker 1: there like you who are expert in it, who keep 30 00:02:17,756 --> 00:02:19,756 Speaker 1: it all flowing, and the rest of us just didn't 31 00:02:19,756 --> 00:02:23,516 Speaker 1: worry about it very much. Then COVID came and suddenly 32 00:02:23,556 --> 00:02:27,116 Speaker 1: everyone noticed that we were interdependent on one another in 33 00:02:27,156 --> 00:02:31,276 Speaker 1: a very complex set of ways. And then people started 34 00:02:31,356 --> 00:02:36,396 Speaker 1: using the words supply chain problems to justify almost any change. 35 00:02:36,956 --> 00:02:40,596 Speaker 1: Was there a particular feature in your view of the 36 00:02:40,636 --> 00:02:44,156 Speaker 1: COVID disruptions. Are there specific moments or events that you 37 00:02:44,196 --> 00:02:49,316 Speaker 1: could point to as inherently transformative that sort of put 38 00:02:49,396 --> 00:02:53,716 Speaker 1: your topic on the front page or was this just 39 00:02:53,876 --> 00:02:56,716 Speaker 1: a slow, gradual thing that the rest of you were 40 00:02:56,756 --> 00:02:58,516 Speaker 1: following the entire time and the rest of the world 41 00:02:58,556 --> 00:03:01,476 Speaker 1: only noticed it because of these events well, it's a 42 00:03:01,516 --> 00:03:04,716 Speaker 1: little bit of both. So for a long time we 43 00:03:04,756 --> 00:03:08,076 Speaker 1: have been teaching at the edge of the ABYSS when 44 00:03:08,076 --> 00:03:11,956 Speaker 1: it comes to supply, and many of us have already 45 00:03:12,516 --> 00:03:18,116 Speaker 1: wasted flags because things like infrastructure has been totally underserved. 46 00:03:18,156 --> 00:03:22,076 Speaker 1: When you look at at our population growth, we are 47 00:03:22,196 --> 00:03:27,276 Speaker 1: essentially in the US thirty three percent more population over 48 00:03:27,316 --> 00:03:31,596 Speaker 1: the last three decades, and we're allmost invested in the 49 00:03:31,916 --> 00:03:36,316 Speaker 1: new infrastructure. And that is a huge problem because we 50 00:03:36,916 --> 00:03:40,316 Speaker 1: know that the demand is going up, but in the 51 00:03:40,436 --> 00:03:43,116 Speaker 1: end we need to have the infrastructure to keep up 52 00:03:43,156 --> 00:03:46,636 Speaker 1: with that. So we knew things like infrastructure was the problem. 53 00:03:46,916 --> 00:03:51,156 Speaker 1: We also know that regulations are exploding. And when I 54 00:03:51,196 --> 00:03:57,116 Speaker 1: say regulations, it's things like how do you get product 55 00:03:57,156 --> 00:04:00,236 Speaker 1: from point A to point B. You've got to get 56 00:04:00,276 --> 00:04:04,396 Speaker 1: it out of one country into another country. The bureaucracy 57 00:04:04,636 --> 00:04:10,036 Speaker 1: and the regulations concerning that keep increasing. We are at 58 00:04:10,036 --> 00:04:13,716 Speaker 1: a trade wall with a number of different open countries, 59 00:04:14,036 --> 00:04:19,076 Speaker 1: and that trade those trade walls really heavily impact the 60 00:04:19,116 --> 00:04:22,676 Speaker 1: supply team. So all of this is not really COVID related. 61 00:04:23,236 --> 00:04:25,916 Speaker 1: You know, we saw it coming. We've been dealing with 62 00:04:25,956 --> 00:04:28,196 Speaker 1: it for a long time. Edge of the ABYSS is 63 00:04:28,196 --> 00:04:32,156 Speaker 1: a very strong formulation. And it's fascinating because I mean, 64 00:04:32,156 --> 00:04:33,436 Speaker 1: of course it's going to leave it to ask you 65 00:04:33,476 --> 00:04:36,236 Speaker 1: whether we're now in the ABYSS or whether we're still 66 00:04:36,276 --> 00:04:38,476 Speaker 1: clinging to the edge of it. But before I ask 67 00:04:38,516 --> 00:04:41,956 Speaker 1: you that infrastructure, do you mean give some examples? Do 68 00:04:41,996 --> 00:04:46,836 Speaker 1: you mean ports where products arrive, roads where things are 69 00:04:46,836 --> 00:04:51,676 Speaker 1: carried by trucks, railroad? What are the features of infrastructure 70 00:04:51,716 --> 00:04:54,556 Speaker 1: in the US that seemed particular lead to have been 71 00:04:54,596 --> 00:04:56,516 Speaker 1: teetering on the edge of the abyss to you? I 72 00:04:56,556 --> 00:05:00,316 Speaker 1: think pots are a really good example, and that's mainly 73 00:05:00,716 --> 00:05:05,636 Speaker 1: the seaports. We also have some restrictions on our airports, 74 00:05:06,116 --> 00:05:11,596 Speaker 1: restrictions on planes and trock limitations. We certainly have a 75 00:05:11,676 --> 00:05:14,476 Speaker 1: big crisis when it comes to a number of truck drivers. 76 00:05:14,676 --> 00:05:18,196 Speaker 1: We simply have two few truck drivers. And this already 77 00:05:18,236 --> 00:05:23,836 Speaker 1: started and had become an issue before COVID. But what 78 00:05:23,956 --> 00:05:27,116 Speaker 1: happened with COVID was really that all of a sudden 79 00:05:27,156 --> 00:05:31,796 Speaker 1: we saw a big demand shift. Demand switched to home partucts, 80 00:05:31,796 --> 00:05:36,076 Speaker 1: shift to shifted to different parduct types, and and all 81 00:05:36,116 --> 00:05:39,756 Speaker 1: the travel money went away and instead it was used 82 00:05:39,876 --> 00:05:46,116 Speaker 1: on getting a new, more fancy home television home set 83 00:05:46,236 --> 00:05:49,716 Speaker 1: up for your home office, etc. And all of a 84 00:05:49,756 --> 00:05:53,476 Speaker 1: sudden that demand shift happened. So that was a really 85 00:05:53,556 --> 00:05:57,516 Speaker 1: big supply chain event that happened in the beginning of 86 00:05:57,556 --> 00:06:00,676 Speaker 1: the pandemic. And then you had the other The other 87 00:06:00,836 --> 00:06:04,276 Speaker 1: problem was that you had the disruption and the labor 88 00:06:04,596 --> 00:06:08,836 Speaker 1: and that was a global issue. So those two issues 89 00:06:08,876 --> 00:06:12,516 Speaker 1: to get have made it now it's too complex. So 90 00:06:12,716 --> 00:06:16,596 Speaker 1: if you think back a couple of yes, you could 91 00:06:16,636 --> 00:06:20,196 Speaker 1: probably do a fodcast that was ninety percent great. You 92 00:06:20,196 --> 00:06:23,556 Speaker 1: could probably plan for ninety to ninety eight percent of 93 00:06:23,596 --> 00:06:26,796 Speaker 1: all events that were going to happen. And here during 94 00:06:26,876 --> 00:06:30,636 Speaker 1: COVID we have been lucky if we've been hitting fifty 95 00:06:30,716 --> 00:06:34,836 Speaker 1: sixty seventy percent great focast. And then when you look 96 00:06:34,876 --> 00:06:37,836 Speaker 1: at what the SAT mean and supply chain, it means said, 97 00:06:37,876 --> 00:06:40,796 Speaker 1: you're buying the wrong thing. I want to talk about 98 00:06:40,796 --> 00:06:42,556 Speaker 1: the demand shift and I want to talk about the 99 00:06:42,676 --> 00:06:45,356 Speaker 1: labor disruptions, both of which I think are hugely fascinating 100 00:06:45,636 --> 00:06:47,436 Speaker 1: and important, and also both of which are relevant to 101 00:06:47,476 --> 00:06:49,876 Speaker 1: the question of inflation. But I also want to ask 102 00:06:49,916 --> 00:06:52,956 Speaker 1: you about how unique the United States is with respect 103 00:06:52,956 --> 00:06:57,236 Speaker 1: to these infrastructure problems, because in other places in the 104 00:06:57,236 --> 00:06:59,916 Speaker 1: world that at least I traveled to. Back when we 105 00:07:00,036 --> 00:07:03,036 Speaker 1: traveled more, it struck me that, at least at a 106 00:07:03,076 --> 00:07:07,156 Speaker 1: superficial level, the infrastructure seemed much fresher, much newer, and 107 00:07:07,316 --> 00:07:09,556 Speaker 1: much more updated than in the US. I don't just 108 00:07:09,676 --> 00:07:13,396 Speaker 1: mean Western European countries, where Americans who are accustomed to 109 00:07:13,396 --> 00:07:15,836 Speaker 1: traveling to those countries in the last thirty or forty 110 00:07:15,916 --> 00:07:18,836 Speaker 1: years are accustomed to seeing the infrastructure as being really 111 00:07:18,836 --> 00:07:22,996 Speaker 1: superior to US infrastructure, but also in countries that one 112 00:07:23,076 --> 00:07:25,836 Speaker 1: might have thought of as developing countries, some of which 113 00:07:25,836 --> 00:07:27,996 Speaker 1: are not so developing anymore and are are pretty developed, 114 00:07:28,036 --> 00:07:30,276 Speaker 1: but some of which are really still very much developing countries, 115 00:07:30,436 --> 00:07:34,036 Speaker 1: which still looked like they had newer airports, newer roads. 116 00:07:34,156 --> 00:07:36,956 Speaker 1: I'm not an expert in seaports, but you could drive 117 00:07:36,996 --> 00:07:39,836 Speaker 1: by and see large, functioning seaports that looked like they 118 00:07:39,876 --> 00:07:41,716 Speaker 1: were fancier than the ones that we see, at least 119 00:07:41,716 --> 00:07:44,356 Speaker 1: in the northeast. Am I right to think that the 120 00:07:44,476 --> 00:07:48,796 Speaker 1: US lagging behind an infrastructure is pretty distinctive? It is. 121 00:07:48,956 --> 00:07:53,116 Speaker 1: It most definitely is, and certainly I mean the physical infrastructure. 122 00:07:53,316 --> 00:07:57,716 Speaker 1: We're definitely lagging, and especially compared to some of the 123 00:07:58,236 --> 00:08:03,596 Speaker 1: growing Asian nations. There are some great standouts in Asia 124 00:08:03,916 --> 00:08:07,676 Speaker 1: where they built infrastructure and in a very impressive manner, 125 00:08:08,076 --> 00:08:11,996 Speaker 1: China Coast in one of them, Singapore, Japan to a 126 00:08:12,276 --> 00:08:15,476 Speaker 1: very large extent. And then there are some countries that 127 00:08:15,516 --> 00:08:19,676 Speaker 1: are lagging behind, and we are seeing as we already 128 00:08:19,756 --> 00:08:22,916 Speaker 1: pre pandemic, we saw a shift away from China with 129 00:08:23,196 --> 00:08:26,836 Speaker 1: shifting productions to a country like Vietnam where also the 130 00:08:26,916 --> 00:08:31,196 Speaker 1: infrastructure is really lacking and companies have their product get 131 00:08:31,276 --> 00:08:34,756 Speaker 1: stuck in Vietnam because they cannot get it moved, they 132 00:08:34,796 --> 00:08:38,556 Speaker 1: cannot get it out of the country, and so it's 133 00:08:39,116 --> 00:08:42,236 Speaker 1: a course of board. Infrastructure really important and it's an 134 00:08:42,276 --> 00:08:46,196 Speaker 1: important consideration when you design your supply team. Where is 135 00:08:46,196 --> 00:08:49,876 Speaker 1: the infrastructure that can really help you. Another area where 136 00:08:49,916 --> 00:08:52,716 Speaker 1: the US is, of course lacking, is in the technology. 137 00:08:53,076 --> 00:08:56,956 Speaker 1: We are not nearly as advanced as some of the 138 00:08:56,996 --> 00:09:01,156 Speaker 1: top players within broadband and speed of the networks and 139 00:09:01,436 --> 00:09:05,636 Speaker 1: for that matter, coverage in remote areas. So that's another 140 00:09:05,716 --> 00:09:09,636 Speaker 1: area we need to work on. You mentioned, and the 141 00:09:09,756 --> 00:09:16,116 Speaker 1: regulatory barriers to smooth supply chain operation. The trade wars 142 00:09:16,236 --> 00:09:19,116 Speaker 1: I sort of can account for. I personally don't believe 143 00:09:19,116 --> 00:09:22,156 Speaker 1: they're rational. I don't think they're helping for the most part, 144 00:09:22,196 --> 00:09:23,956 Speaker 1: at least in the United States and the trade wars 145 00:09:23,956 --> 00:09:26,316 Speaker 1: that we've started in recent years. But at least I 146 00:09:26,356 --> 00:09:28,756 Speaker 1: can understand where they come from. Right, there's a domestic 147 00:09:28,836 --> 00:09:33,036 Speaker 1: sentiment that says we're getting taken advantage of by other countries. 148 00:09:33,436 --> 00:09:36,436 Speaker 1: There are interests domestically that imagine that it will lead 149 00:09:36,436 --> 00:09:38,396 Speaker 1: to more US jobs. There's not a lot of evidence 150 00:09:38,436 --> 00:09:41,356 Speaker 1: that always happens, but at least you can understand the impulse. 151 00:09:42,036 --> 00:09:44,636 Speaker 1: But what about the other kinds of regulatory barriers that 152 00:09:44,676 --> 00:09:47,036 Speaker 1: you mentioned. I mean, what's in it for the regulators? 153 00:09:47,156 --> 00:09:54,876 Speaker 1: Who is asking for greater regulatory intervention in ordinary effective trade? Well, 154 00:09:55,076 --> 00:09:58,716 Speaker 1: let me give you a couple of examples. California decide that, 155 00:09:59,356 --> 00:10:03,156 Speaker 1: in order to get products from the ports and into 156 00:10:03,196 --> 00:10:07,956 Speaker 1: the country, use something called yage. Those twyage trucks have 157 00:10:08,156 --> 00:10:12,956 Speaker 1: traditional in the most polluting trucks on the road, and 158 00:10:13,236 --> 00:10:17,396 Speaker 1: California decided that you cannot use trucks that are older 159 00:10:17,436 --> 00:10:21,236 Speaker 1: than yet two thousand and eleven to move products from 160 00:10:21,316 --> 00:10:25,596 Speaker 1: the port. And that regulation then meant that many of 161 00:10:25,636 --> 00:10:28,356 Speaker 1: the truckers simply could not do it, could not move 162 00:10:28,436 --> 00:10:32,796 Speaker 1: that product. And so that's a small part of the 163 00:10:32,876 --> 00:10:35,836 Speaker 1: port crisis, but certainly it happens. And I think we 164 00:10:35,996 --> 00:10:40,516 Speaker 1: all have the sympathy for the environmental regulations that we 165 00:10:40,596 --> 00:10:43,796 Speaker 1: don't want polluting trucks out there, but this is an 166 00:10:43,836 --> 00:10:47,596 Speaker 1: example of where where the balance may shift and it 167 00:10:47,636 --> 00:10:52,436 Speaker 1: may become more difficult. Another type of regulation is hope 168 00:10:52,476 --> 00:10:56,556 Speaker 1: for social responsibility, where you can say child's labor, we 169 00:10:56,636 --> 00:11:00,516 Speaker 1: don't want any child's labor or other human rights abuses 170 00:11:00,596 --> 00:11:05,036 Speaker 1: in the supply chain, and had then creates some intrigacies 171 00:11:05,236 --> 00:11:07,876 Speaker 1: in where you place the supply chain and how you 172 00:11:08,116 --> 00:11:11,516 Speaker 1: are able to run. So there's a lot of regulationship 173 00:11:11,716 --> 00:11:15,996 Speaker 1: are very important in many ways, but certainly they impact 174 00:11:15,996 --> 00:11:30,356 Speaker 1: a supply chain. We'll be right back, Hannah. You spoke 175 00:11:30,396 --> 00:11:34,516 Speaker 1: of the demand shift that happened at COVID when suddenly 176 00:11:34,876 --> 00:11:37,436 Speaker 1: consumers didn't want to buy the same things they previously 177 00:11:37,476 --> 00:11:41,476 Speaker 1: wanted to buy. I recognize that that can cause problems 178 00:11:41,516 --> 00:11:44,476 Speaker 1: for the supply chain. If I'm running a company and 179 00:11:44,556 --> 00:11:47,636 Speaker 1: I suddenly need some product that I didn't otherwise have, 180 00:11:48,116 --> 00:11:49,916 Speaker 1: and where I need more of something that I had 181 00:11:49,916 --> 00:11:53,636 Speaker 1: a little bit of, is it fundamentally a supply chain 182 00:11:53,676 --> 00:11:56,036 Speaker 1: problem though, or is that fundamentally just the kind of 183 00:11:56,076 --> 00:11:59,556 Speaker 1: economic problem that sometimes arises, right? I mean, if we 184 00:11:59,596 --> 00:12:01,276 Speaker 1: said that there is a change in supply of a 185 00:12:01,356 --> 00:12:04,036 Speaker 1: product or a change in demand of a product, those 186 00:12:04,076 --> 00:12:07,436 Speaker 1: seem to be underlying economic forces that they impinge on 187 00:12:07,436 --> 00:12:10,116 Speaker 1: the supply chain, but they don't seem to be answerable 188 00:12:10,196 --> 00:12:13,276 Speaker 1: as it were, just via the supply chain. Well, it 189 00:12:13,436 --> 00:12:16,876 Speaker 1: certainly it becomes the supply chain problem because you need 190 00:12:16,956 --> 00:12:20,356 Speaker 1: to be able to produce what the consumer wants in 191 00:12:20,436 --> 00:12:23,396 Speaker 1: the end. That's what it's about, is producing what is 192 00:12:23,436 --> 00:12:26,476 Speaker 1: needed and getting it to the location where it's needed. 193 00:12:27,036 --> 00:12:30,716 Speaker 1: And so when we saught the demand shift, of course 194 00:12:30,836 --> 00:12:34,356 Speaker 1: companies have to respond and it creates a lot of 195 00:12:34,436 --> 00:12:37,276 Speaker 1: problems when we have these big swings. As we saw, 196 00:12:37,796 --> 00:12:41,316 Speaker 1: the swings are becoming bigger over time, and it's a 197 00:12:41,436 --> 00:12:44,876 Speaker 1: very interesting thing. I think social media is driving a 198 00:12:44,876 --> 00:12:49,516 Speaker 1: lot of the demand shifts. That many people go and 199 00:12:50,396 --> 00:12:53,116 Speaker 1: buy what others seem to be buying, and so you 200 00:12:53,236 --> 00:12:56,676 Speaker 1: get these big shifts, and of course they need to 201 00:12:56,716 --> 00:13:00,316 Speaker 1: be produced. What also has happened over time is that 202 00:13:00,516 --> 00:13:04,036 Speaker 1: we as consumers have gotten really spoiled when we get 203 00:13:04,036 --> 00:13:07,276 Speaker 1: it in any type, configuration color it said right that 204 00:13:07,596 --> 00:13:11,956 Speaker 1: we want. And one of the ways companies have tried 205 00:13:11,996 --> 00:13:17,076 Speaker 1: to minimize complexity and focus on at least getting product 206 00:13:17,116 --> 00:13:20,756 Speaker 1: out in the supply chain is to cut down on 207 00:13:20,796 --> 00:13:23,316 Speaker 1: the number of selections. And you see that a little 208 00:13:23,316 --> 00:13:26,756 Speaker 1: bit when you're out shopping, that there's a little bit 209 00:13:26,836 --> 00:13:29,716 Speaker 1: less selection these days than they used to be. Not 210 00:13:29,876 --> 00:13:33,036 Speaker 1: that we are suffering any big card shifts, but it's 211 00:13:33,076 --> 00:13:37,356 Speaker 1: a good way to decrease the complexity. And complexity is 212 00:13:37,356 --> 00:13:40,716 Speaker 1: really a big issue in supply chain right now because 213 00:13:40,756 --> 00:13:43,876 Speaker 1: the systems cannot handle it, and because there's so many 214 00:13:44,236 --> 00:13:48,956 Speaker 1: unexpected events, and supply chain professionals are joggling all these 215 00:13:48,996 --> 00:13:52,836 Speaker 1: balls in the air because of those shifts. The complexity 216 00:13:52,916 --> 00:13:57,196 Speaker 1: also seems to be part of our current moment of consumerism, 217 00:13:57,236 --> 00:14:00,476 Speaker 1: where I not only understand that if I go to 218 00:14:00,516 --> 00:14:02,436 Speaker 1: the shop, the product that I want may exist in 219 00:14:02,476 --> 00:14:05,076 Speaker 1: ten colors, but I expect it to exist in those 220 00:14:05,076 --> 00:14:07,836 Speaker 1: colors as well, and that's sort of what keeps me 221 00:14:07,876 --> 00:14:09,796 Speaker 1: buying in some sense, at least to the low end 222 00:14:09,796 --> 00:14:12,676 Speaker 1: of expenses. But when you gave that answer, which is 223 00:14:13,036 --> 00:14:16,156 Speaker 1: totally fascinating to me, I had this feeling that maybe 224 00:14:16,396 --> 00:14:18,556 Speaker 1: people are using the words supply chain is kind of 225 00:14:18,596 --> 00:14:21,076 Speaker 1: an excuse to kind of catch all excuse that, at 226 00:14:21,116 --> 00:14:23,796 Speaker 1: least for some consumers, I think, I include myself here 227 00:14:23,996 --> 00:14:26,996 Speaker 1: might be misleading. So you know, it's been COVID. I've 228 00:14:26,996 --> 00:14:29,236 Speaker 1: been sitting on my couch a lot. My couch isn't 229 00:14:29,316 --> 00:14:32,596 Speaker 1: very good. It's time for a new couch. So I go, 230 00:14:32,716 --> 00:14:35,036 Speaker 1: this actually happened to me recently. I go shopping for 231 00:14:35,076 --> 00:14:38,316 Speaker 1: the couch and they say, oh, for that couch, the 232 00:14:38,396 --> 00:14:41,756 Speaker 1: weight will be you know, nine months. And I say, well, 233 00:14:41,756 --> 00:14:43,396 Speaker 1: oh my goodness, that seems like a long time to 234 00:14:43,436 --> 00:14:45,996 Speaker 1: wait for the couch, and they say, well, supply chain. 235 00:14:47,196 --> 00:14:49,956 Speaker 1: Then they also say, but actually there is one color, 236 00:14:49,996 --> 00:14:51,876 Speaker 1: and if you get that couch in this one color, 237 00:14:52,156 --> 00:14:54,156 Speaker 1: we actually do have those, and those are in the 238 00:14:54,156 --> 00:14:57,756 Speaker 1: warehouse and you can get those. Now, I guess it 239 00:14:57,876 --> 00:14:59,916 Speaker 1: is a supply chain question. You're convincing me that everything 240 00:14:59,996 --> 00:15:02,236 Speaker 1: is a supply chain question, because if they have something 241 00:15:02,276 --> 00:15:04,316 Speaker 1: in the warehouse and I can get it, that means 242 00:15:04,316 --> 00:15:07,276 Speaker 1: the supply chains has sent it here and it's functioned correctly, 243 00:15:07,396 --> 00:15:09,756 Speaker 1: and if I'm willing to buy the product, you know, 244 00:15:09,796 --> 00:15:11,076 Speaker 1: even if it's not the color that I would have 245 00:15:11,076 --> 00:15:13,596 Speaker 1: first chosen. Pretty good, right, It's a pretty good outcome. 246 00:15:14,516 --> 00:15:17,676 Speaker 1: The year weight for the sofa or the couch and 247 00:15:17,716 --> 00:15:20,516 Speaker 1: the color that I would have wanted. Seems to be 248 00:15:20,836 --> 00:15:23,196 Speaker 1: that they're using the word supply chain as a shorthand 249 00:15:23,236 --> 00:15:26,236 Speaker 1: for We had no idea so many people were going 250 00:15:26,276 --> 00:15:30,276 Speaker 1: to want to buy sofas, and so it takes a 251 00:15:30,316 --> 00:15:33,036 Speaker 1: while to make the new sofas. And we also have 252 00:15:33,076 --> 00:15:34,996 Speaker 1: to hire people. You spoke about labor. We have to 253 00:15:35,076 --> 00:15:37,756 Speaker 1: hire people in the factory wherever that is to build 254 00:15:37,796 --> 00:15:40,196 Speaker 1: these sofas, and we need to hire truckers so that 255 00:15:40,236 --> 00:15:43,236 Speaker 1: the sofa can be transported, and if it's coming internationally, 256 00:15:43,236 --> 00:15:45,716 Speaker 1: it has to come in through report. But they're using 257 00:15:45,916 --> 00:15:50,356 Speaker 1: supply chain effectively as a grab bag to mean all 258 00:15:50,436 --> 00:15:53,276 Speaker 1: of those things, and I think too many consumers, at 259 00:15:53,316 --> 00:15:55,796 Speaker 1: least to myself, it sounds like they're saying, oh, it 260 00:15:55,916 --> 00:15:57,516 Speaker 1: just takes a long time for it to get here, 261 00:15:57,596 --> 00:15:59,356 Speaker 1: or something like that, or you know, there was a 262 00:15:59,396 --> 00:16:02,236 Speaker 1: particular part of the fabric that we can't get enough 263 00:16:02,276 --> 00:16:04,636 Speaker 1: of because people want that. But the reality seems to 264 00:16:04,676 --> 00:16:07,516 Speaker 1: be that they just didn't anticipate that there would be 265 00:16:07,556 --> 00:16:10,196 Speaker 1: the kind of demand that there is, and they can't 266 00:16:10,196 --> 00:16:11,636 Speaker 1: be blamed for that. I mean, no one could have 267 00:16:11,676 --> 00:16:13,796 Speaker 1: anticipated we would all spend such a higher percentage of 268 00:16:13,796 --> 00:16:15,876 Speaker 1: our days sitting on our couch than we previously did. 269 00:16:16,716 --> 00:16:20,396 Speaker 1: But it sounds like the words supply chain are covering many, 270 00:16:20,516 --> 00:16:25,036 Speaker 1: many different causes of delays. That is correct, and that's 271 00:16:25,076 --> 00:16:27,836 Speaker 1: because I gained the supply chain is ultra complex and 272 00:16:27,876 --> 00:16:31,036 Speaker 1: there are many different places where you can have and 273 00:16:31,516 --> 00:16:35,436 Speaker 1: currently you have delays in the supply chain. And so 274 00:16:35,516 --> 00:16:39,156 Speaker 1: what supply chain professionals do is they try to work 275 00:16:39,196 --> 00:16:43,436 Speaker 1: around these delays and try to circumvent them. But you 276 00:16:43,516 --> 00:16:46,636 Speaker 1: can only do so much. If we step back and 277 00:16:46,676 --> 00:16:49,276 Speaker 1: look at this over a long time and sort of 278 00:16:49,476 --> 00:16:54,716 Speaker 1: from a more macroeconomic standpoint, what has happened over the 279 00:16:54,796 --> 00:16:59,116 Speaker 1: last thirty years is we have driven cost of manufactured 280 00:16:59,396 --> 00:17:03,436 Speaker 1: goods down and down and down, so it's now cheaper 281 00:17:03,476 --> 00:17:06,996 Speaker 1: than ever to buy a thing, and that's of all 282 00:17:06,996 --> 00:17:10,876 Speaker 1: a good thing. That downside that we are seeing now 283 00:17:11,036 --> 00:17:15,916 Speaker 1: is as we are producing cheap things in cheap countries 284 00:17:15,956 --> 00:17:20,516 Speaker 1: and cheaper countries and driving down the manufactured cost, we 285 00:17:20,556 --> 00:17:23,996 Speaker 1: are increasing the risk and we are also increasing the 286 00:17:23,996 --> 00:17:29,116 Speaker 1: supply chain cost, the supply chain cost of transportation and customs, 287 00:17:29,156 --> 00:17:33,996 Speaker 1: cleerens and all of those type of things, and governance 288 00:17:34,036 --> 00:17:37,156 Speaker 1: for that matter. So that's what we're seeing right now, 289 00:17:37,236 --> 00:17:40,596 Speaker 1: and explosion and those costs. It's not really that the 290 00:17:40,676 --> 00:17:43,876 Speaker 1: things are getting much more expensive to manufacture. It's all 291 00:17:43,956 --> 00:17:47,316 Speaker 1: the extra supply chain cost, and we are seeing the 292 00:17:47,476 --> 00:17:51,676 Speaker 1: increased problems in managing that complexity. So I'm sorry you 293 00:17:51,756 --> 00:17:54,636 Speaker 1: have to wait for your sofa. I can't help you 294 00:17:54,796 --> 00:17:56,476 Speaker 1: get it there far. I just I just took the 295 00:17:56,516 --> 00:17:58,276 Speaker 1: one color they had in stock because I didn't want 296 00:17:58,276 --> 00:18:00,676 Speaker 1: to wait a year for za. You know, I was 297 00:18:00,676 --> 00:18:05,876 Speaker 1: a good soldier at least with respect of that decision. Labor, So, 298 00:18:06,036 --> 00:18:10,796 Speaker 1: labor cost is obviously an important part of making anything 299 00:18:11,236 --> 00:18:14,996 Speaker 1: and an important part of transporting anything. And as you mentioned, 300 00:18:15,036 --> 00:18:18,516 Speaker 1: manufacturing costs have been going down, and some of that 301 00:18:18,636 --> 00:18:21,836 Speaker 1: is by pushing down wages in some places and times, 302 00:18:22,156 --> 00:18:26,676 Speaker 1: but more of it is by gaining efficiencies from other aspects. 303 00:18:26,996 --> 00:18:29,476 Speaker 1: Right now, at least in the United States, the cost 304 00:18:29,516 --> 00:18:32,756 Speaker 1: of labor is very high for complex reasons that no 305 00:18:32,756 --> 00:18:34,436 Speaker 1: one fully understands. That that that I have to do with 306 00:18:34,476 --> 00:18:36,996 Speaker 1: people coming back from COVID and deciding they're not going 307 00:18:37,036 --> 00:18:38,716 Speaker 1: back to the jobs they were in before and they 308 00:18:38,716 --> 00:18:41,476 Speaker 1: don't wish to participate in the official economy in that way. 309 00:18:42,796 --> 00:18:45,196 Speaker 1: When you think about labor in its relationship to the 310 00:18:45,236 --> 00:18:47,476 Speaker 1: supply chain, how do you think of that. I think 311 00:18:47,476 --> 00:18:51,876 Speaker 1: it's a course abort. So we already, as I mentioned, 312 00:18:51,916 --> 00:18:56,636 Speaker 1: have a labor crisis, ongoing labor crisis in truck Trucking 313 00:18:57,036 --> 00:19:00,556 Speaker 1: has been an area where we have seen a lot 314 00:19:00,596 --> 00:19:04,156 Speaker 1: of retirement and not a lot of new people coming in, 315 00:19:04,556 --> 00:19:06,876 Speaker 1: and so that has been a big concern for a 316 00:19:06,876 --> 00:19:10,756 Speaker 1: while and been talked about for a while. But you're right, 317 00:19:10,796 --> 00:19:13,676 Speaker 1: what we're seeing right now is an emotional shift where 318 00:19:14,156 --> 00:19:18,556 Speaker 1: everybody is asking themselves whether they're working the right job 319 00:19:18,796 --> 00:19:22,116 Speaker 1: and whether they want to do something different, and it's 320 00:19:22,116 --> 00:19:25,956 Speaker 1: certainly impacting the supply chain big time. You're also seeing 321 00:19:26,916 --> 00:19:29,956 Speaker 1: an increased need for staff in the supply chain, so 322 00:19:30,436 --> 00:19:35,116 Speaker 1: a lot of the workforce have shifted from retail to 323 00:19:35,236 --> 00:19:38,116 Speaker 1: supply chain. So we're buying more and more online, We're 324 00:19:38,116 --> 00:19:41,236 Speaker 1: getting more and more shipped to our homes, so people 325 00:19:41,876 --> 00:19:46,196 Speaker 1: move from retail into warehouses. There's a big move to 326 00:19:46,236 --> 00:19:49,756 Speaker 1: automate much of what's going on and the supply chain, 327 00:19:50,796 --> 00:19:54,636 Speaker 1: but there's still we still need labor, and so I 328 00:19:54,676 --> 00:19:58,556 Speaker 1: am very concerned about the inflation that we are seeing 329 00:19:58,676 --> 00:20:03,436 Speaker 1: and the inflationary pressures coming from the labor as well 330 00:20:03,476 --> 00:20:08,596 Speaker 1: as inflation or materials and components coming in and for 331 00:20:08,716 --> 00:20:11,316 Speaker 1: that to finish good, so the cost is just going 332 00:20:11,396 --> 00:20:15,516 Speaker 1: up tremendously. I think we are going to see the 333 00:20:15,596 --> 00:20:20,716 Speaker 1: supply chain crisis continuing for another several years. And I 334 00:20:20,756 --> 00:20:23,276 Speaker 1: think supply chain issues are going to stick with us 335 00:20:23,316 --> 00:20:28,676 Speaker 1: for a while until we get the infrastructure fixed, until 336 00:20:28,796 --> 00:20:32,836 Speaker 1: we get more automation in the supply chain, until we 337 00:20:32,956 --> 00:20:35,996 Speaker 1: get better systems to be able to handle with all 338 00:20:36,076 --> 00:20:39,716 Speaker 1: the exceptions that we deal with in supply chain. So 339 00:20:39,876 --> 00:20:44,356 Speaker 1: definitely a lot of big investments need to happen and 340 00:20:44,556 --> 00:20:47,916 Speaker 1: development needs to happen before we are in a position 341 00:20:47,956 --> 00:20:51,356 Speaker 1: where we can say supply chain is just humming it all. 342 00:20:51,636 --> 00:20:54,116 Speaker 1: So what I'm hearing you saying is that the process 343 00:20:54,196 --> 00:20:57,916 Speaker 1: of not only manufacturing but of delivering things is a 344 00:20:57,916 --> 00:21:01,916 Speaker 1: process that is still very human intensive. Right, Maybe someday 345 00:21:02,516 --> 00:21:06,076 Speaker 1: we'll have automated trucks, but we don't have automated trucks. 346 00:21:06,356 --> 00:21:09,116 Speaker 1: Maybe someday we'll have a way in a fully automated fashion, 347 00:21:09,116 --> 00:21:12,156 Speaker 1: and to take the products off the ship at the 348 00:21:12,196 --> 00:21:14,476 Speaker 1: port and put it onto the trucks or the trains 349 00:21:14,516 --> 00:21:16,956 Speaker 1: and get it from place to place. We don't. We 350 00:21:17,036 --> 00:21:19,556 Speaker 1: still require human beings to participate in this. So I 351 00:21:19,556 --> 00:21:22,316 Speaker 1: guess the question I want to end with is, when 352 00:21:22,356 --> 00:21:24,276 Speaker 1: you say, you know, well we need more automation in 353 00:21:24,316 --> 00:21:27,996 Speaker 1: this space, how fast can that happen and how good 354 00:21:27,996 --> 00:21:30,716 Speaker 1: will that be? Are these jobs that can be replaced 355 00:21:31,476 --> 00:21:34,796 Speaker 1: by automation as opposed to by humans, at least in 356 00:21:34,796 --> 00:21:38,036 Speaker 1: the foreseeable future, and will that lead to the opposite effect, 357 00:21:38,036 --> 00:21:41,516 Speaker 1: an effect where many many people whose jobs depend on 358 00:21:41,556 --> 00:21:44,676 Speaker 1: being the human beings who operate the supply chain find 359 00:21:44,716 --> 00:21:48,756 Speaker 1: themselves desperately needing some other kind of work, much as 360 00:21:48,756 --> 00:21:53,436 Speaker 1: we've seen in manufacturing, where many relatively good blue collar 361 00:21:53,556 --> 00:21:56,516 Speaker 1: jobs went away, and to the extent they're replaced, they're 362 00:21:56,516 --> 00:21:59,796 Speaker 1: replaced by much less appealing surface sector jobs. I mean, 363 00:22:00,036 --> 00:22:01,596 Speaker 1: is it basically the case that that's going to happen 364 00:22:01,636 --> 00:22:03,916 Speaker 1: and elsewhere in the supply chain as well. It just 365 00:22:03,996 --> 00:22:09,036 Speaker 1: hasn't happened yet. I am a firm believer that automation 366 00:22:09,116 --> 00:22:12,156 Speaker 1: and it's not a bad deal, and that it's all 367 00:22:12,196 --> 00:22:15,956 Speaker 1: about how we transition the workforce. I don't see right 368 00:22:15,996 --> 00:22:18,916 Speaker 1: now that we're going to have a surplus workforce. I 369 00:22:18,996 --> 00:22:22,836 Speaker 1: see that we are very much in need of more workforce, 370 00:22:22,996 --> 00:22:25,476 Speaker 1: and I think that trend is going to stay with 371 00:22:25,556 --> 00:22:27,836 Speaker 1: us for a long time. And the other thing we 372 00:22:27,876 --> 00:22:31,796 Speaker 1: can do, apart from, of course, automation, is to go 373 00:22:31,876 --> 00:22:34,716 Speaker 1: in and say, maybe we can do more near sourcing 374 00:22:35,036 --> 00:22:39,996 Speaker 1: and not have to transport products so far distances. We 375 00:22:40,076 --> 00:22:43,876 Speaker 1: are seeing that right now, corporations are coming in and saying, Okay, 376 00:22:44,476 --> 00:22:49,356 Speaker 1: we have so much cost in transporting all these goods around, 377 00:22:50,316 --> 00:22:52,996 Speaker 1: maybe we can buy some of them locally where we 378 00:22:53,076 --> 00:22:56,996 Speaker 1: need them and closer to the market. And so that's 379 00:22:57,036 --> 00:23:01,516 Speaker 1: called near sourcing and a really strong strategy from a 380 00:23:01,556 --> 00:23:06,556 Speaker 1: sustainability standpoint. But also it takes risks down. The closer 381 00:23:06,596 --> 00:23:09,356 Speaker 1: you are to the less, the less can go wrong 382 00:23:09,436 --> 00:23:12,676 Speaker 1: in the supply chain, and so that may be a 383 00:23:12,996 --> 00:23:16,636 Speaker 1: possible opportunity for small and mid sized companies also to 384 00:23:16,756 --> 00:23:20,236 Speaker 1: come in and play a stronger role in the supply chain. 385 00:23:20,356 --> 00:23:23,556 Speaker 1: So there's a lots of good things that could come 386 00:23:23,556 --> 00:23:28,356 Speaker 1: out of this as cooperations, A reevaluating their supply chains. 387 00:23:29,596 --> 00:23:31,876 Speaker 1: And I want to thank you so much for educating 388 00:23:31,876 --> 00:23:36,076 Speaker 1: me and our listeners and for the fascinating and important 389 00:23:36,076 --> 00:23:38,276 Speaker 1: work that you do. And I guess I want to 390 00:23:38,276 --> 00:23:40,316 Speaker 1: apologize on behalf of all of us for not paying 391 00:23:40,396 --> 00:23:44,116 Speaker 1: enough attention to the significance and importance of supply chain 392 00:23:44,476 --> 00:23:48,516 Speaker 1: affairs until suddenly we experience disruptions. Thank you very much, 393 00:23:49,116 --> 00:24:02,756 Speaker 1: Thank you. We'll be right back. Talking to Hannah Kane 394 00:24:03,036 --> 00:24:06,156 Speaker 1: brought home some reality to me that I truly did 395 00:24:06,156 --> 00:24:09,396 Speaker 1: not anticipate before speaking to her. Maybe, like a lot 396 00:24:09,436 --> 00:24:13,396 Speaker 1: of you, I've mostly taken the excuse supply chain delays 397 00:24:13,636 --> 00:24:17,196 Speaker 1: to be a reasonable explanation of the difficulty in getting 398 00:24:17,516 --> 00:24:21,756 Speaker 1: goods to market in the time of COVID. But as 399 00:24:21,796 --> 00:24:24,556 Speaker 1: Hannah argued, we were on the edge of the abyss 400 00:24:25,076 --> 00:24:29,676 Speaker 1: her striking phrase even before COVID happened. In other words, 401 00:24:29,836 --> 00:24:34,636 Speaker 1: the global supply chain was already extraordinarily delicate, and as 402 00:24:34,716 --> 00:24:39,316 Speaker 1: population grew, regulation not only the good kind, but also 403 00:24:39,476 --> 00:24:43,636 Speaker 1: the kind that comes with trade wars, was increased, and 404 00:24:44,036 --> 00:24:47,476 Speaker 1: as our infrastructure above all continued to degrade. In the 405 00:24:47,596 --> 00:24:51,716 Speaker 1: United States, we were already, without quite knowing it, in 406 00:24:51,756 --> 00:24:56,116 Speaker 1: a position where the slightest disruption to our regular economy 407 00:24:56,396 --> 00:24:59,476 Speaker 1: could really break the supply chain in a range of ways. 408 00:24:59,996 --> 00:25:03,356 Speaker 1: At the same time, just in time, servicing had made 409 00:25:03,436 --> 00:25:06,796 Speaker 1: us expect to get things when we wanted them, how 410 00:25:06,836 --> 00:25:10,636 Speaker 1: we wanted them, in a way that was probably ultimately unsustainable. 411 00:25:11,436 --> 00:25:14,716 Speaker 1: It follows from this that the major shifts of the pandemic, 412 00:25:15,076 --> 00:25:19,476 Speaker 1: the demand shift, the labor shift, and other challenges, we're 413 00:25:19,556 --> 00:25:23,316 Speaker 1: just really the straw that broke the camel's back, albeit 414 00:25:23,476 --> 00:25:27,236 Speaker 1: a rather a large bale of straw. That means, according 415 00:25:27,276 --> 00:25:30,436 Speaker 1: to Hannah, that we're not going to see a rapid 416 00:25:30,516 --> 00:25:33,356 Speaker 1: turnaround or a set of improvements in the global supply 417 00:25:33,476 --> 00:25:37,436 Speaker 1: chain just because things begin to get back to a 418 00:25:37,556 --> 00:25:40,756 Speaker 1: new normal post COVID. Instead, we're going to have to 419 00:25:40,796 --> 00:25:44,396 Speaker 1: actually build better infrastructure. We're gonna have to engage in 420 00:25:44,396 --> 00:25:47,876 Speaker 1: a rationalization of our trade policies if and when that 421 00:25:47,996 --> 00:25:52,076 Speaker 1: actually happens. We're gonna have to develop norms appropriate to 422 00:25:52,076 --> 00:25:55,196 Speaker 1: a consumer economy where we can't always expect to get 423 00:25:55,236 --> 00:25:59,556 Speaker 1: everything we want magically when we want it. And most troublingly, 424 00:25:59,716 --> 00:26:03,876 Speaker 1: according to Hannah, we also need substantial automation through the 425 00:26:03,916 --> 00:26:07,636 Speaker 1: supply chain. As you heard That's a little worrisome because 426 00:26:07,636 --> 00:26:11,356 Speaker 1: the kinds of jobs that the supply chain historically supported 427 00:26:11,556 --> 00:26:16,396 Speaker 1: in transport were at least sometimes relatively good blue collar jobs, 428 00:26:16,556 --> 00:26:19,676 Speaker 1: many times unionized jobs. If those are going to go 429 00:26:19,716 --> 00:26:22,156 Speaker 1: away as part of the rationalization of the supply chain, 430 00:26:22,516 --> 00:26:25,996 Speaker 1: it means further problems of the kind were already familiar 431 00:26:26,036 --> 00:26:30,956 Speaker 1: with as manufacturing jobs have gone away. That means that 432 00:26:31,116 --> 00:26:34,676 Speaker 1: making the global supply chain hum again is going to 433 00:26:34,716 --> 00:26:39,756 Speaker 1: have distributive effects in our real economy, distributive effects that 434 00:26:39,836 --> 00:26:43,676 Speaker 1: we have to develop good policy solutions to address in 435 00:26:43,716 --> 00:26:47,876 Speaker 1: a manner that is fair and just. Regular listeners of 436 00:26:47,916 --> 00:26:50,716 Speaker 1: this podcast know that I am no MBA, and I 437 00:26:50,796 --> 00:26:54,796 Speaker 1: have the feeling that my ignorance of the everyday processes 438 00:26:54,836 --> 00:26:57,836 Speaker 1: of how a business transports things around the world was 439 00:26:57,916 --> 00:27:01,556 Speaker 1: particularly in evidence today. But maybe for that reason, I 440 00:27:01,676 --> 00:27:06,276 Speaker 1: found this conversation especially powerful and especially illuminating, and I 441 00:27:06,356 --> 00:27:12,836 Speaker 1: certainly appreciated Hannakane's extreme clarity of analysis and purpose. Until 442 00:27:12,836 --> 00:27:16,196 Speaker 1: the next time I speak to you, breathe deep, think 443 00:27:16,236 --> 00:27:20,396 Speaker 1: deep thoughts, and have a little fun. If you're a 444 00:27:20,436 --> 00:27:23,796 Speaker 1: regular listener, you know I love communicating with you here 445 00:27:23,796 --> 00:27:27,316 Speaker 1: on deep background. I also really want that communication to 446 00:27:27,396 --> 00:27:30,036 Speaker 1: run both ways. I want to know what you think 447 00:27:30,076 --> 00:27:33,036 Speaker 1: are the most important stories of the moment, and what 448 00:27:33,116 --> 00:27:34,876 Speaker 1: kinds of guests do you think it would be useful 449 00:27:34,916 --> 00:27:38,076 Speaker 1: to hear from. More So, I'm opening a new channel 450 00:27:38,076 --> 00:27:41,756 Speaker 1: of communication. To access it, just go to my website 451 00:27:41,916 --> 00:27:44,876 Speaker 1: Noah Dashfelman dot com. You can sign up from my 452 00:27:44,916 --> 00:27:48,636 Speaker 1: newsletter and you can tell me exactly what's on your mind, 453 00:27:49,316 --> 00:27:52,436 Speaker 1: something that would be really valuable to me and I 454 00:27:52,476 --> 00:27:56,436 Speaker 1: hope to you too. Deep background is brought to you 455 00:27:56,516 --> 00:28:00,196 Speaker 1: by Pushkin Industries. 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