WEBVTT - Covid Changed Work, But Will That Change Last Forever? 0:00:00.160 --> 0:00:02.719 I have a friend who laughed so much when he said, 0:00:02.759 --> 0:00:06.200 but where did you call to me? The love nowhere 0:00:06.800 --> 0:00:11.799 in And I said, look have a little shop store 0:00:11.840 --> 0:00:15.520 where I can buy my groceries. I have this little 0:00:15.560 --> 0:00:19.480 bank and they have a pharmacy. And there are two birds. 0:00:19.560 --> 0:00:21.960 And then he said, why do you have a pharmacy? 0:00:21.960 --> 0:00:30.440 Where do you need a pharmacy if you have to borrow? Hello, 0:00:30.480 --> 0:00:33.199 and welcome to Stephanomics, the podcast that brings the global 0:00:33.240 --> 0:00:36.800 economy to you. And that was Lowly Garthia, one of 0:00:36.880 --> 0:00:39.320 many who has used the pandemic as a chance to 0:00:39.479 --> 0:00:43.760 escape city life. Where we work, how we work, what 0:00:43.880 --> 0:00:46.839 we're wearing when we work. Is that all really going 0:00:46.880 --> 0:00:49.360 to change forever? More? In a year or two is 0:00:49.440 --> 0:00:52.279 time where we wake up find we're all pretty much 0:00:52.320 --> 0:00:55.480 doing what we were doing before COVID ninety. It's a 0:00:55.560 --> 0:00:57.280 question we keep coming back to you on this show 0:00:57.560 --> 0:01:01.160 because if work changes, the entire shape of our economy 0:01:01.360 --> 0:01:05.000 might change too. Cities could shrink, a lot of low 0:01:05.040 --> 0:01:08.680 skilled jobs in those cities could disappear, and governments could 0:01:08.720 --> 0:01:12.520 find themselves having to completely rethink how they try to 0:01:12.600 --> 0:01:16.160 tackle poverty and stimulate growth. In a minute, you'll hear 0:01:16.200 --> 0:01:19.400 me talk about all of that to Spend Smith, one 0:01:19.400 --> 0:01:22.320 of the co authors of a series of important reports 0:01:22.319 --> 0:01:25.600 on the future of work and the global economy post COVID. 0:01:26.319 --> 0:01:29.640 We'll also here why the Irish government is so keen 0:01:29.680 --> 0:01:31.520 to keep people from going back to work in their 0:01:31.560 --> 0:01:34.320 city offices. They're even going to encourage them to work 0:01:34.480 --> 0:01:38.360 in their local pub. But first, here's our Spanish economy 0:01:38.400 --> 0:01:42.080 reporter Jeanette Newman in Madrid and a quiet corner of 0:01:42.120 --> 0:01:56.560 northeast Spain. I'm walking through some outeror dining spats in 0:01:56.560 --> 0:01:59.320 the west. That's neighborhood in the center of Madrid. This 0:01:59.320 --> 0:02:03.320 neighborhood history centuries ago. The author of Don Quixote and 0:02:03.360 --> 0:02:06.600 other legendary writers lived here and as beautiful plus as 0:02:06.600 --> 0:02:09.960 with fountains and great tapas bars, many of which are open. 0:02:11.040 --> 0:02:14.560 Despite these charms, apparently not many people want to live here. 0:02:15.120 --> 0:02:17.560 To my left, there's an apartment for rent. To my 0:02:17.639 --> 0:02:20.960 right another there are several dozen apartments for rent just 0:02:21.040 --> 0:02:28.799 a few minutes from where I'm walking. So many empty 0:02:28.800 --> 0:02:32.440 apartments is pushing down rental prices. They fell around ten 0:02:32.480 --> 0:02:34.880 percent at the beginning of this year in Madrid compared 0:02:34.919 --> 0:02:38.200 to last in major cities around the world. The story 0:02:38.320 --> 0:02:41.920 is the same. In some central parts of Sydney, London, 0:02:42.160 --> 0:02:46.040 New York, and Chicago, prices are falling. The decline shows 0:02:46.080 --> 0:02:49.040 one way the pandemic has changed US. Urban centers have 0:02:49.160 --> 0:02:52.640 become less appealing. Let's push some city dwellers to move out. 0:02:53.120 --> 0:02:55.399 At the same time, it's slow the number of people 0:02:55.400 --> 0:02:58.760 who would normally move in. This ditching and dodging has 0:02:58.840 --> 0:03:03.280 major implications for rental prices, inflation, the cost of housing, 0:03:03.600 --> 0:03:06.959 and inequality. Let's go to the tiny town of Oust 0:03:07.320 --> 0:03:10.560 in northeast Spain. I traveled there to speak with recent 0:03:10.600 --> 0:03:13.600 city transplants about their new rural life and their post 0:03:13.600 --> 0:03:16.560 pandemic plans. I wanted to find out how permanent this 0:03:16.600 --> 0:03:21.839 global shift away from cities might be. A century ago, 0:03:22.200 --> 0:03:26.000 nearly fred people lived the new said, now they're two hundred. 0:03:26.720 --> 0:03:29.120 The town is located in an area of Spain that 0:03:29.200 --> 0:03:32.600 has an average of around seven inhabitants per square kilometer. 0:03:33.080 --> 0:03:35.600 There are few other places in Europe that are so 0:03:35.640 --> 0:03:40.240 sparsely populated, except the Scottish Highlands and Lapland. That's right, 0:03:40.680 --> 0:03:45.120 villains Subarctic wilderness for decades. Then, who said has been 0:03:45.160 --> 0:03:48.320 a place where people generally didn't want to live. The 0:03:48.360 --> 0:03:52.040 pandemic has changed that. New residents like Lowi Garcia are 0:03:52.080 --> 0:03:54.760 moving in. I have a friend who laughed so much 0:03:54.800 --> 0:03:58.040 when he said, but where did you go to? Middle 0:03:58.080 --> 0:04:03.320 of nowhere in And I said, Luke, half a little 0:04:03.520 --> 0:04:07.120 shop store where I can buy my groceries. I have 0:04:07.280 --> 0:04:10.560 this little bank that it already stole my car. When 0:04:10.560 --> 0:04:15.080 I went to take somebody out. Half a church and 0:04:15.120 --> 0:04:18.560 they have a pharmacy and there are two bars. And 0:04:18.600 --> 0:04:21.000 then he said, why do you have a pharmacy. Why 0:04:21.000 --> 0:04:23.040 do you need a pharmacy if you have two bars. 0:04:23.839 --> 0:04:26.680 Lowly is thirty nine years old. She works in education 0:04:26.880 --> 0:04:30.000 and is studying to become a kindergarten teacher. In September, 0:04:30.320 --> 0:04:32.680 she left her rental apartment in Madrid and moved to 0:04:32.839 --> 0:04:35.560 said with her kids. She wanted space and to be 0:04:35.600 --> 0:04:39.120 near nature and family. Lowly has deep ties too, said 0:04:39.640 --> 0:04:41.599 she spent much of the pandemic in the home that 0:04:41.680 --> 0:04:45.640 belonged to her great grandmother. Lowly enrolled her two boys 0:04:45.640 --> 0:04:48.480 in the town school, boosting the total number of pupils 0:04:48.480 --> 0:04:51.560 to nine. For small towns, like you said, a local 0:04:51.560 --> 0:04:55.640 school is an existential bell Weather when we came like people. 0:04:55.920 --> 0:04:58.680 You can feel that people only love me because I 0:04:58.760 --> 0:05:02.599 have two kids. And a town official called Lowly because 0:05:02.600 --> 0:05:04.600 she didn enrolled two kids in school. She had the 0:05:04.680 --> 0:05:07.920 right to two plots of municipal farmland, hold over from 0:05:07.960 --> 0:05:11.400 an earlier era when the town administered common lands for villagers. 0:05:12.000 --> 0:05:14.479 She didn't want the farmland, but she says the town 0:05:14.520 --> 0:05:17.760 has given her something less tangible and more profound. And 0:05:17.839 --> 0:05:21.080 the thing that I like very much of said is 0:05:21.120 --> 0:05:26.279 the fact of nature and freedom is the fact of time. 0:05:26.720 --> 0:05:31.320 It seems like you have time again to leave something 0:05:31.400 --> 0:05:34.680 that in the cities, no matter how much you try 0:05:34.760 --> 0:05:38.800 to have time, sometimes you always feel running after it. 0:05:39.200 --> 0:05:42.800 I don't know yet if I I'm going to be 0:05:42.839 --> 0:05:47.039 a rural woman for the rest of my life, but 0:05:47.240 --> 0:05:50.400 maybe for two or three more years. It's a fact. 0:06:01.440 --> 0:06:04.320 If Lowly and others stay, it would slow the exodus 0:06:04.360 --> 0:06:08.600 that Alberto Sanchez has seemed diminished his hometown. Alberto is 0:06:08.680 --> 0:06:12.120 thirty three years old and an historic preservation architect. He 0:06:12.240 --> 0:06:16.680 counts the cost of depopulation and who SAIDs abandoned buildings. 0:06:16.720 --> 0:06:19.800 Alberto bought one several years ago. He was supposed to 0:06:19.880 --> 0:06:24.240 spend part of Madrid doing research for his dissertation. Instead, 0:06:24.480 --> 0:06:27.080 he spent much of the pandemic restoring the property. I 0:06:27.120 --> 0:06:30.880 think that this project comes out of both my brain 0:06:30.920 --> 0:06:35.360 gain in a depopulating town, seeing the population firsthand as 0:06:35.360 --> 0:06:39.800 a kid. Even during my lifetime, my town loves about 0:06:39.839 --> 0:06:42.919 half of its population. When I was a kid, we 0:06:43.040 --> 0:06:45.719 had around four hundred people, and now we have around 0:06:45.720 --> 0:06:49.440 two hundred. He shows me around his property, a seventeenth 0:06:49.440 --> 0:06:52.520 century manor house. There's a coat of arms on the facade, 0:06:52.800 --> 0:06:56.000 basking in the sharp Spanish sunlight. The house is regal, 0:06:56.160 --> 0:06:59.360 despite the collapsed ceilings and piles of rubble. I thought 0:06:59.440 --> 0:07:02.680 that I needed to sur buy it in order to 0:07:02.720 --> 0:07:06.160 save it from other destinies that will have awaited her, 0:07:06.200 --> 0:07:09.440 including the militian, which was perhaps the most likely one. 0:07:09.840 --> 0:07:12.000 Alberto bought the house from a family who lived here 0:07:12.080 --> 0:07:16.200 until nineteen at the time tens of thousands of Spaniards 0:07:16.240 --> 0:07:19.000 were to camping to cities in search of better opportunities. 0:07:19.680 --> 0:07:22.600 The house is as the family left. It dishes in 0:07:22.600 --> 0:07:25.559 the pantry, covered in a thick layer of dust, old 0:07:25.600 --> 0:07:28.760 paintings in the attic. Alberto says the family planned to 0:07:28.840 --> 0:07:32.200 return but never did. And look at all the pots 0:07:32.240 --> 0:07:37.320 hanging there. It's beautiful. But again it's like they left 0:07:37.400 --> 0:07:39.880 and then we'll come back, we'll come back, and then 0:07:39.920 --> 0:07:44.120 they never came, and they never came back. For Alberto, 0:07:44.560 --> 0:07:47.080 the house is a time capsule. It tells a story 0:07:47.080 --> 0:07:51.600 about who said and rural life in Spain. Despite the challenges, 0:07:51.840 --> 0:07:55.120 Alberto has become more optimistic about that story during the pandemic. 0:07:55.640 --> 0:07:59.040 What I know is that four houses were built last year, 0:07:59.120 --> 0:08:01.360 and the top four your houses, which is a lot 0:08:01.440 --> 0:08:05.640 for a town this size, and many people are realizing 0:08:05.640 --> 0:08:08.160 that it's much cheaper to live in a town like 0:08:08.200 --> 0:08:11.280 this than to live in a city, especially in large 0:08:11.280 --> 0:08:15.160 capitals like Madrid and Barcelona, where housing is becoming and 0:08:15.240 --> 0:08:19.720 possibly expensive. Some people, though, are worried the charms of 0:08:19.760 --> 0:08:22.720 small town living will wear off once the pandemic fades. 0:08:23.040 --> 0:08:26.440 I traveled deeper into what's known as Las Spanavacia, Empty 0:08:26.440 --> 0:08:29.720 Spain to hear about the challenges in the town of Ourea. 0:08:29.920 --> 0:08:32.720 I spoke to Manuel Marco. He's fifty one years old. 0:08:32.920 --> 0:08:34.640 He and his wife moved to this town of around 0:08:34.679 --> 0:08:38.840 two hundred people just before COVID nineteen hit. During the pandemic. 0:08:38.960 --> 0:08:40.800 He's been happy to see more than a dozen new 0:08:40.840 --> 0:08:43.959 residents come to Aurea, but he's worried they won't stay 0:08:44.160 --> 0:08:46.680 and that others will continue to stay away. The reason 0:08:47.000 --> 0:08:50.880 slow internet. The Spanish government has pledged to spend billions 0:08:50.880 --> 0:08:54.240 of euros and EU pandemic recovery funds to ensure fast 0:08:54.240 --> 0:08:57.840 internet for all, but Manuel doesn't want to wait, so 0:08:57.880 --> 0:09:00.280 he's hatched a plan to tap the fiber optic tables 0:09:00.320 --> 0:09:03.040 have a nearby power plant and extend them to Area 0:09:03.280 --> 0:09:06.240 and several other small towns. He walks me down to 0:09:06.240 --> 0:09:08.800 Area's main street and shows me where he would install 0:09:08.840 --> 0:09:14.680 the cables from that entrance to the town over there, 0:09:14.920 --> 0:09:18.880 all along this road, straight down to the end. Didn't 0:09:20.160 --> 0:09:23.200 My decision to try to install telecommunications in these towns 0:09:23.679 --> 0:09:27.000 is about my intention to help these towns repopulate, so 0:09:27.080 --> 0:09:30.320 people can invest, so people can work, and so that 0:09:30.360 --> 0:09:36.280 the young people don't leave in these towns, don't die out. Okay, 0:09:40.360 --> 0:09:42.800 what does all this mean for the economy? I spoke 0:09:42.840 --> 0:09:46.280 to HSBC Global economist James Pomeroy. So you've ended up 0:09:46.280 --> 0:09:48.880 getting is a big dropping rental demand and a big 0:09:48.960 --> 0:09:51.560 dropping rental prices. And big cities, And you're seeing this 0:09:51.840 --> 0:09:53.839 in pretty much everywhere we can get data BID in 0:09:53.880 --> 0:09:56.480 the US, BID and Europe, BIT and Asia, my rental 0:09:56.520 --> 0:09:59.240 prices and big cities of Plumberton, and that really matters 0:09:59.280 --> 0:10:02.680 for inflation, particularly in the US when rents make up 0:10:02.720 --> 0:10:06.160 about a third of the inflation basket. Cheaper apartments are 0:10:06.200 --> 0:10:09.160 good news for young renters in big cities, but James 0:10:09.160 --> 0:10:11.920 points out there's a flip side. The problem you've got 0:10:11.920 --> 0:10:13.920 if you're one of those young people is, at the 0:10:13.960 --> 0:10:17.199 same time as this rental dynamic is happening, house prices 0:10:17.200 --> 0:10:20.240 are going through the roof because you've got this weird 0:10:20.360 --> 0:10:23.400 environment where all the people who are geographically mobile, who 0:10:23.400 --> 0:10:25.800 have kept their jobs during the pandemic because of being 0:10:25.800 --> 0:10:28.160 able to remote work, have saved a load of money. 0:10:28.240 --> 0:10:31.000 And I've got almost zero interest rates or historically low 0:10:31.040 --> 0:10:33.040 interest rates. And what's that. What that's meant is that 0:10:33.120 --> 0:10:36.600 house prices pretty much everywhere in the world I saw 0:10:37.240 --> 0:10:42.000 the pandemic in that sense has exacerbated income inequality because 0:10:42.000 --> 0:10:44.800 you're taking that home ownership even further out of reach 0:10:45.200 --> 0:10:47.640 of a younger generation who already was going to struggle 0:10:47.679 --> 0:10:51.440 to become home That's why some young people have seized 0:10:51.440 --> 0:10:53.959 on the pandemic to seek out places where home prices 0:10:54.000 --> 0:10:57.079 haven't gone up. People like Manuel are trying to invest 0:10:57.120 --> 0:11:02.720 in infrastructure to make sure they stay. I think about 0:11:02.720 --> 0:11:05.360 the people who left you Said and other small Spanish 0:11:05.360 --> 0:11:09.040 towns decades ago, streaming into cities like Madrid and Barcelona. 0:11:10.000 --> 0:11:13.320 Their exodus helped to concentrate economic and political power in 0:11:13.440 --> 0:11:17.079 urban areas. It drained many parts of the Spanish countryside 0:11:17.200 --> 0:11:20.559 of fatality. Many of those who left you Said decades 0:11:20.559 --> 0:11:23.320 ago thought they would eventually return to small town life, 0:11:23.960 --> 0:11:27.520 and they never did. Maybe this time some of those 0:11:27.559 --> 0:11:29.720 who have left the city to live in the country 0:11:30.160 --> 0:11:33.319 will be the ones who never go back. Jeanette Newman, 0:11:33.440 --> 0:11:44.800 Bloomberg News Now. One of the questions raised by Jeanette's 0:11:44.800 --> 0:11:48.120 pieces should governments be doing anything differently as a result 0:11:48.160 --> 0:11:50.720 of these changes in behavior? And it turns out the 0:11:50.720 --> 0:11:54.520 Irish government thinks they should not only be adapting their policies, 0:11:54.559 --> 0:11:58.880 but actively encouraging these developments as part of their strategy 0:11:58.960 --> 0:12:03.079 to boost rural areas. Dara Doyle is Bloomberg's bureau chief 0:12:03.120 --> 0:12:05.760 in Dublin. Dara, when I Readinette script. I sort of 0:12:05.800 --> 0:12:09.400 dimly remembered I'd read something about Ireland wanting to do this, 0:12:09.440 --> 0:12:13.920 but what exactly is the strategy. Yeah, so back in 0:12:13.960 --> 0:12:16.600 the spring the government launched this new sort of world 0:12:16.640 --> 0:12:19.760 development strategy that one involved and encourage people to, you know, 0:12:19.800 --> 0:12:21.839 continue to work from home where many people have moved 0:12:21.880 --> 0:12:23.520 back and moved out of Dublin over to the west 0:12:23.520 --> 0:12:25.640 of Ireland, the Midlands, that kind of place. So it's 0:12:25.640 --> 0:12:28.120 an idea where you can kind of keep people in 0:12:28.160 --> 0:12:29.680 those areas. And how are they going to do it? 0:12:29.800 --> 0:12:31.640 A number of ways. There's a couple of kind of 0:12:31.720 --> 0:12:34.920 key points that they've talked about. So one thing, for example, 0:12:35.040 --> 0:12:38.000 is they want to develop a whole network of remote 0:12:38.040 --> 0:12:40.640 working homes. I guess the country you know we work 0:12:40.720 --> 0:12:43.840 scenario possibly if you can imagine that pubs. I thought 0:12:43.840 --> 0:12:46.920 that was going to be in old pubs. Yeah, pubs 0:12:46.920 --> 0:12:49.600 have been mentioned. Will say, if you have ever been 0:12:49.600 --> 0:12:52.320 in a Dublin pub or an Irish pub at Leven 0:12:52.360 --> 0:12:54.240 Name in the morning, I'm not particularly sure it's the 0:12:54.400 --> 0:12:57.679 nicest environment to work. In my own experience, it's not 0:12:57.720 --> 0:12:59.320 somewhere I want to be at Leven Name the morning 0:12:59.360 --> 0:13:05.000 after a busy Thursday night in Limerick or something. So yeah, 0:13:05.400 --> 0:13:08.240 so absolutely and these remote hopes including possibly pubs and 0:13:08.360 --> 0:13:12.080 one idea another idea is you know, possibly tax breaks 0:13:12.080 --> 0:13:15.680 to keep people, you know, in a rural environment, although 0:13:15.720 --> 0:13:18.920 again I don't think very significant. Look, it's hard to 0:13:18.920 --> 0:13:21.080 know how significant things are going to be. I mean, 0:13:21.080 --> 0:13:23.800 I thought it was ironic that the tarnished our Deputy 0:13:23.800 --> 0:13:26.640 Prime Minister Leo Rodker when the when the announcing part 0:13:26.640 --> 0:13:29.160 of the strategy actually called us to a press conference 0:13:29.960 --> 0:13:33.280 rather than do Rather than do the launch over Zoom 0:13:33.520 --> 0:13:35.400 did a press conference in Duldt, which I thought was 0:13:35.440 --> 0:13:37.200 kind of ironically. We couldn't work from home while he 0:13:37.240 --> 0:13:39.960 was launching the strategy. So none of the measures have 0:13:40.040 --> 0:13:43.200 been costed. They're all very aspirational and it's you know, 0:13:43.320 --> 0:13:45.160 it's it's a nice idea, but I think we're gonna 0:13:45.160 --> 0:13:46.840 have to wait and see about how effective they're going 0:13:46.840 --> 0:13:50.000 to be. I mean, it's quite interesting for people listening 0:13:50.040 --> 0:13:52.199 from elsewhere in the world because we've tended to think 0:13:52.240 --> 0:13:55.920 that governments will be broadly encouraging people back to work 0:13:56.000 --> 0:13:59.679 because they're so worried about those jobs and businesses and 0:14:00.000 --> 0:14:02.959 city centers that we rely on so much. So, so 0:14:03.040 --> 0:14:05.920 why is it that the Ireland is not worried about 0:14:05.960 --> 0:14:08.480 that so much? So? I think there's one key factor. 0:14:08.600 --> 0:14:11.679 I mean, possibly more than any other country Europe, Ireland 0:14:11.720 --> 0:14:15.880 is incredibly lobside around. Population is crammed into Dublin and 0:14:16.000 --> 0:14:20.000 pushing property prices incredibly high. Such a small, you know, 0:14:20.440 --> 0:14:22.880 European city person on the edge of Europe, you'd expect 0:14:22.920 --> 0:14:25.440 housing prices to be kind of reasonable. That's not the case. 0:14:25.440 --> 0:14:27.600 You could pay at six seven eight hundred thousand to 0:14:27.600 --> 0:14:29.840 buy a nice vombily home in Dublin. And that's partly 0:14:29.840 --> 0:14:32.680 because some of the pressure that's the population prepert that 0:14:32.680 --> 0:14:36.040 that's in Dublin, and at the same place to infrastructure, 0:14:36.080 --> 0:14:40.320 our transport systems are crammed up. Buses are full at 0:14:40.360 --> 0:14:42.880 all points. So in a way it's an opportunity to 0:14:42.880 --> 0:14:45.600 to kind of move people away out of Dublin and 0:14:45.600 --> 0:14:48.160 releasing pressure on the capital city, which is under tremendous 0:14:48.280 --> 0:14:51.920 kind of yeah pressure, But I guess that I mean 0:14:52.000 --> 0:14:55.720 that pressure is partly as a result of Ireland's great 0:14:55.800 --> 0:15:03.280 success in recent years at attracting big international companies to Dublin, 0:15:03.600 --> 0:15:07.840 and maybe a few more financial sector jobs, recently jobs 0:15:07.880 --> 0:15:10.360 moving from London as a result of as a result 0:15:10.440 --> 0:15:12.920 of Brexit. But we've had so much talk on this 0:15:12.960 --> 0:15:18.080 podcast and elsewhere about cracking down on the sort of 0:15:18.160 --> 0:15:21.640 race to the bottom mentality on corporate taxation, and Island 0:15:21.640 --> 0:15:26.880 has built its development strategy on having the lowest tax rate, 0:15:27.360 --> 0:15:31.240 attracting those big companies partly on that basis. Do you 0:15:31.240 --> 0:15:36.120 think the government's also worried about that model long term? 0:15:36.160 --> 0:15:37.880 I mean, you know, first of all, I'm not sure 0:15:37.920 --> 0:15:39.840 I agree with the race of the bottom strategy. Yeah, 0:15:39.840 --> 0:15:43.680 definitely that you do such a term in that kind 0:15:43.720 --> 0:15:46.720 of context. And look, I think there are concerns around 0:15:46.720 --> 0:15:48.600 the model, but these aren't really to do the pandemic 0:15:48.640 --> 0:15:50.640 there to do with the changes coming internet in the 0:15:50.680 --> 0:15:54.160 international tax system. You know, I've been reporting on taxes 0:15:54.200 --> 0:15:56.840 for maybe fifteen twenty years, and this is probably the 0:15:56.960 --> 0:16:00.240 point where I see government most worried. That they're twelve 0:16:00.240 --> 0:16:03.520 point five percent rate is understraates, under pressure. And look, 0:16:03.640 --> 0:16:05.680 the argument cover from the Irish government is that, you know, 0:16:05.680 --> 0:16:08.640 there are other factors that attract companies to Ireland. If 0:16:08.680 --> 0:16:11.240 the fact that it's a relatively well well educated workforce 0:16:11.240 --> 0:16:14.520 it's a relative cheap workforce. We offer you know, access 0:16:14.560 --> 0:16:16.920 to the you know, easy access to the European market. 0:16:17.000 --> 0:16:19.400 So without sounding like a shill for the Irish government, 0:16:19.400 --> 0:16:21.520 they would argue that there are you know, other vantages 0:16:21.720 --> 0:16:25.640 above and beyond tax. But there's no doubt that that 0:16:26.000 --> 0:16:27.800 they are concerned that the model, which is you know, 0:16:27.800 --> 0:16:31.760 it's incredibly important, as you said, as I'm saying very 0:16:31.920 --> 0:16:34.840 on about one of five Irish workers are employed directly 0:16:34.920 --> 0:16:37.120 indirectly by US firmaments that are base here. So it's 0:16:37.160 --> 0:16:39.080 a huge it's a huge factor. But I think that 0:16:39.400 --> 0:16:45.560 including you, not that we'd ever say that was a motivation. No, 0:16:46.000 --> 0:16:50.080 no clear clear clearing off. But but so but I think, 0:16:50.160 --> 0:16:51.520 you know, it kind of goes back to which because 0:16:51.520 --> 0:16:54.640 about this will distract remote strategy working. To me, ultimately, 0:16:54.920 --> 0:16:56.600 there is a desire among a lot of workers to 0:16:56.680 --> 0:16:58.480 move out of Dubland to be based where they're from 0:16:58.560 --> 0:16:59.960 and you live in a nice part of the country 0:17:00.040 --> 0:17:02.000 up in the west of our and whatever. But it'll 0:17:02.040 --> 0:17:04.480 come down to what employers are prepared to kind of accept, like, 0:17:04.880 --> 0:17:07.639 you know, will Google be happy with its staff to 0:17:08.080 --> 0:17:11.040 be three miles away? You know, we'll Facebook be happy 0:17:11.119 --> 0:17:13.040 with somebody to be, you know, down in Cork or 0:17:13.359 --> 0:17:14.920 you know, do people have to be in the office 0:17:14.960 --> 0:17:18.240 to to to to attend meetings as we returned to 0:17:18.240 --> 0:17:20.840 normality over the next year or so. So ultimately, I 0:17:20.920 --> 0:17:23.440 think that just going back to your original questions, the 0:17:23.520 --> 0:17:25.879 successor or otherwise the strategy with large depend on what 0:17:25.960 --> 0:17:28.199 those kind of companies decide what the model is kind 0:17:28.200 --> 0:17:29.760 of going forward. And I know we see lots of 0:17:30.320 --> 0:17:32.960 commentary now about like hybrid working and it's all going 0:17:33.000 --> 0:17:34.800 to change, always be very different. I kind of wonder 0:17:34.880 --> 0:17:37.960 sometimes two years time this is all very different, is it. 0:17:38.200 --> 0:17:39.840 Are we all going to be in a different situation 0:17:39.920 --> 0:17:41.360 that you know, are we all going to be kind 0:17:41.359 --> 0:17:43.480 of working a half time from from home? I'm not sure. 0:17:43.720 --> 0:17:46.200 I guess. Well, I have you sitting in Dublin and 0:17:46.240 --> 0:17:47.760 I can see there aren't very many people in the 0:17:47.800 --> 0:17:50.880 office with you right now. I should I should ask 0:17:50.920 --> 0:17:53.240 you how Aland's doing in the recovery. I mean, we've 0:17:53.240 --> 0:17:56.600 got quite a a big gap opening up between the 0:17:56.800 --> 0:18:00.879 UK and the US on the one hand, and continental 0:18:01.000 --> 0:18:04.520 Europe in the pace of recovery right now, and that's 0:18:04.680 --> 0:18:08.000 very slow pace of the rollout of vaccines and where 0:18:08.040 --> 0:18:10.960 does alim fit into that? So as everyone are and 0:18:11.000 --> 0:18:13.000 it's a it's a fairly complicated picture because we have 0:18:13.119 --> 0:18:17.000 these huge multinationals, your Googles, your facebooks, your big farmer companies. 0:18:17.200 --> 0:18:19.119 The headline numbers that aren't look really good. If I 0:18:19.160 --> 0:18:20.600 can think, really the only country in that you to 0:18:20.760 --> 0:18:23.200 actually grow last year because we had these like massive 0:18:23.240 --> 0:18:26.520 export figures. But of course that doesn't always translate into jobs. 0:18:26.560 --> 0:18:28.159 So at the same time we have that, we have 0:18:28.760 --> 0:18:33.680 unemployment because retail, bars, restaurants were closed down and that's 0:18:33.760 --> 0:18:36.000 continue to be the situation into the first quarter, in 0:18:36.040 --> 0:18:38.919 the first half of this year, and we're under very 0:18:38.960 --> 0:18:42.679 hard lockdown. Still bars, restaurant, non essential stores, bookshops, et 0:18:42.720 --> 0:18:46.320 cetera also closed right now there's no sign and when 0:18:46.320 --> 0:18:49.320 they're going to reopen. So I think it's people are 0:18:49.359 --> 0:18:52.760 still out of work and so so things at the 0:18:52.840 --> 0:18:55.960 moment are tough for people. I will say I would 0:18:55.960 --> 0:18:59.159 expect a massive rebound in the second half of this 0:18:59.359 --> 0:19:01.760 year because like the u k els where people have 0:19:02.480 --> 0:19:04.080 if you if you've been looking at to keep your job, 0:19:04.320 --> 0:19:06.040 you've a math a law savings, there's going to be 0:19:06.040 --> 0:19:07.800 a massive consumer being I think the second half of 0:19:07.800 --> 0:19:09.920 the year, and that will be married with the continued 0:19:09.920 --> 0:19:12.000 success of your of your of your export sector, your 0:19:12.000 --> 0:19:14.639 facebooks or Google's your farmer companies. So I said, so 0:19:14.800 --> 0:19:17.440 things aren't great right now, but I suspect the second 0:19:17.440 --> 0:19:20.160 half of the year I think was the bars, restaurants, 0:19:20.240 --> 0:19:23.400 non as you stories reopened maybe June early July. People 0:19:23.400 --> 0:19:24.760 will be gone on holidays again. I think we'll have 0:19:24.800 --> 0:19:26.320 a very big rebound in the second half of the 0:19:26.680 --> 0:19:29.640 this year. It will be my sense, Dara Doyle, thanks 0:19:29.760 --> 0:19:41.360 very much, Thank you, Stephanie m So We've now had 0:19:41.440 --> 0:19:45.080 two on the ground perspectives from Spain and Ireland on 0:19:45.400 --> 0:19:49.480 people working differently, maybe the other side of this pandemic, 0:19:49.840 --> 0:19:53.920 and maybe government's planning differently in response. So I thought 0:19:53.960 --> 0:19:56.840 we should get an expert take on these issues and 0:19:57.040 --> 0:19:59.879 pull some of the strands together by talking to Spend. 0:20:00.040 --> 0:20:02.440 Smith was one of the co chairs of the McKinsey 0:20:02.440 --> 0:20:06.680 Global Institute and a co author of three important reports 0:20:06.800 --> 0:20:09.800 which the Institute has put out recently on the world 0:20:09.960 --> 0:20:14.680 after COVID nineteen. Spend thanks very much for coming on Stephanomics. 0:20:15.320 --> 0:20:18.040 I mean those reports they tackle not just the changing 0:20:18.119 --> 0:20:22.040 world of work, but also changing consumer behavior and indeed 0:20:22.240 --> 0:20:26.560 whether we're going to see more innovation and growth coming 0:20:26.600 --> 0:20:29.640 out of this crisis. But let's focus just for now 0:20:29.920 --> 0:20:33.760 on the changing world of work. Peace Ash. You start, 0:20:33.800 --> 0:20:37.080 I guess by asking, does your research support the idea 0:20:37.200 --> 0:20:40.080 that the work is going to be more widely distributed 0:20:40.200 --> 0:20:43.480 in a geographical sense, less concentrated in cities as a 0:20:43.520 --> 0:20:48.159 result of the pandemic. So Stephanie, thanks for having me. 0:20:49.280 --> 0:20:52.159 I think it does support that. You know, the future 0:20:52.160 --> 0:20:54.840 of work has been a conversation that was already their 0:20:54.920 --> 0:20:58.080 pre COVID, and it used to say that fifty of 0:20:58.280 --> 0:21:01.639 tasks could be automated with a lable technology. But the 0:21:01.680 --> 0:21:04.720 good news was that there would be equal amount of 0:21:04.840 --> 0:21:07.960 jobs gained that's lost roughly even it was so that 0:21:08.080 --> 0:21:10.600 the net gain was actually slightly positive, so the future 0:21:10.640 --> 0:21:14.000 work was actually nicely imbalanced. If you look at the 0:21:14.040 --> 0:21:17.880 shifts that are now happening, which is remote work, which 0:21:18.000 --> 0:21:21.720 is e commerce, which is automation, they are accelerating the 0:21:21.800 --> 0:21:27.119 pre COVID trends, and with that they also shift I 0:21:27.240 --> 0:21:30.320 think the tension in future work faster on the point 0:21:30.359 --> 0:21:34.920 of due special distribution of work that is accelerating because 0:21:34.960 --> 0:21:37.560 of the remote work, which is a new one. And 0:21:37.680 --> 0:21:39.320 I think the one thing that we say in our 0:21:39.440 --> 0:21:42.840 report is that the new lens that COVID has brought 0:21:43.080 --> 0:21:48.240 beyond the acceleration is basically the notion that proximity is 0:21:48.280 --> 0:21:49.920 a new lens to look at it when is it 0:21:50.040 --> 0:21:53.480 needed and when is it not. And we at least 0:21:53.600 --> 0:21:56.200 think that one more day of remote work per weak 0:21:56.359 --> 0:21:59.680 week is possible for the average of the workforce. And 0:21:59.760 --> 0:22:01.879 that would of course mean that people could live outside 0:22:01.920 --> 0:22:06.440 cities for more of their time at least and commutes 0:22:06.520 --> 0:22:08.560 and so one could be sort of dampened a little 0:22:08.600 --> 0:22:11.080 bit from that. And the you know, the pressure on cities, 0:22:11.160 --> 0:22:14.600 so I think there is a potential. We don't see 0:22:14.680 --> 0:22:17.560 it as you know, people everybody will basically no longer 0:22:17.640 --> 0:22:20.320 work at all together in a physical space because people 0:22:20.400 --> 0:22:23.920 still need to meet. I mean, you talk about the 0:22:24.000 --> 0:22:26.359