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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named best betting podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: We're growing up job spectacular.

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Speaker 4: I'm setting up to cash tout.

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Speaker 5: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 5: go to wind.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible.

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Speaker 4: Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money.

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Speaker 6: All right, this is the ultimate kabine you want to pull,

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Speaker 6: and we are underway in Welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 5: I'm your host, Chris Raybond, and this is your NFL

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Speaker 5: The Visional Round Playoff betting preview. I'm joined as always

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Speaker 5: by my Action Network colleague, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation.

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Speaker 4: Stucky Stuck. What is going on? Would you think of

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Speaker 4: Super wild Card Weekend?

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Speaker 2: Let's go? We got made and Rad has moved on

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Speaker 2: after a slow star which was scary. The one thing

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Speaker 2: that went wrong for me was I rarely bet props.

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Speaker 7: I got a good tip that Jimmy Graham wasn't going

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Speaker 7: to be a part of the game plan, got other

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Speaker 7: people to bet that prop for me, and he caught

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Speaker 7: a twenty yard pass and the final play of the

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Speaker 7: game one handed and ruin the prop luckily couldn't couldn't

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Speaker 7: get as much down on that as I full on games, but.

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Speaker 2: God begin overall, but who cares. We're on to the

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Speaker 2: next on the divisional round.

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Speaker 4: That was a bad beat of bad beats that that

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Speaker 4: game that play one handed, just.

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Speaker 5: Ridiculous, But we'll get into our divisional round six pack.

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Speaker 5: We're going to keep doing it the same way. Stuck

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Speaker 5: still has the ten point lead before we kick things off.

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Speaker 4: Three very quick reminders.

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Speaker 5: Number One, if you planned to bet on the NFL

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Speaker 5: this season and haven't downloaded the free, award winning Action

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Speaker 5: Network app, what are you doing? It's got betting tools

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Speaker 5: analysis for me, Stucky and the whole Action Network team,

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Speaker 5: and it lets you track every bet that you make.

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Speaker 5: Number Two a quick programming note about the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 5: Stuck and I will continue our NFL betting episodes every

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Speaker 5: Thursday until the end of the season. We still have

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Speaker 5: the NFL Fantasy Flex Show with Me, Matthew Friedman and

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Speaker 5: Sean Corner, and our PGA Tour betting previews every Tuesday,

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Speaker 5: Matt Moore doing our Wednesday NBA Buffet show, and of

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Speaker 5: course Stuck in Colin Wilson return with college basketball episodes

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Speaker 5: every week starting on Friday, and number three last week.

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Speaker 5: We encourage you guys to follow at Action podcast on

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Speaker 5: Twitter for a chance to win an Action Network hoodie.

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Speaker 4: Thank you to.

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Speaker 5: All who participated, We really appreciate it. Our winners are

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Speaker 5: Pete Aquisto, Trent Lujin, and Nate Jacobs. So Pete, Trent,

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Speaker 5: and Nate please email our producer, Matt Mitchell at Podcasts

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Speaker 5: at actionnetwork dot com to clean your prize.

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Speaker 4: All right, let's get into it, Stuck.

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Speaker 5: Let's crack open the Divisional Round NFL six pack.

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Speaker 4: Thursday for Action.

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Speaker 1: Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 5: All right, So we're gonna keep with the format that

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Speaker 5: we used last week. Each pick will be worth two points,

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Speaker 5: so no real best bet or higher point pick with

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Speaker 5: the three games, but we'll still try to go in

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Speaker 5: order of confidence.

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Speaker 4: So for the first pick.

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Speaker 5: Of the Divisional Round Sunday at six pack, I'm going

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Speaker 5: with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus three and a half

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Speaker 5: at BENMGM, the official odds provider of the podcast. And

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Speaker 5: before I get into all the reasons I like the Bucks, Stuck,

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Speaker 5: any thoughts on buying off the three for people out

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Speaker 5: there that are only getting a three at their book,

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Speaker 5: any thoughts of how much you would paid by off

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Speaker 5: the three to the three and a half.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Three's obviously the most key number in NFL betting.

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Speaker 7: It's then that game's land on most frequently. If you

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Speaker 7: have a two and a half point underdog, buying up

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Speaker 7: to three is obviously key. Or if you have a

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Speaker 7: three point underdog. I don't do it as much, but

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Speaker 7: here I would if you can get up to minus

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Speaker 7: one twenty getting onto the three from a plus two

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Speaker 7: and a half point dog.

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Speaker 2: It depends.

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Speaker 7: There's a lot of other factors here, but general, if

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Speaker 7: I'm up to minus one twenty five, it's worth it.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I generally buy onto the three more than I

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Speaker 5: buy off of it from three to three and a half.

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Speaker 5: But yeah, I would recommend about the same one twenty

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Speaker 5: five if you can get it. But the reason I

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Speaker 5: like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers despite them getting swept in

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Speaker 5: the season series by New Orleans is I think Tampa

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Speaker 5: Bay matches up.

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Speaker 4: Pretty well in New Orleans.

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Speaker 5: First of all, we know Tampa Bay can defend the

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Speaker 5: run game, so Alvin Kamara obviously the biggest part of

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Speaker 5: that Saints offense. In two games this year, Tampa Bay

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Speaker 5: hel Kamara to nine carries for forty yards and twelve

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Speaker 5: for sixteen, so a total of just fifty six yards

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Speaker 5: on twenty one carries two point seven yards per carry

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Speaker 5: for Alvin Kamara. Tampa Bay finished number one in running

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Speaker 5: back yards per carry at three point three five and

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Speaker 5: number one and adjusted line yards which adjusts for longer

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Speaker 5: runs and take some of the credit out of them,

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Speaker 5: and they're still number one at three point six, so

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Speaker 5: this is the best run defense in the league. Tampa

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Speaker 5: Bay also did a pretty good job on Kamara as

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Speaker 5: a receiver, just sixty yards on fourteen targets in the

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Speaker 5: two games for Camara. He did get a touchdown, But

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Speaker 5: Tampa Bay is number six in DVOA on passes to

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Speaker 5: running backs according to Football Outsiders, and that's with facing

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Speaker 5: the third most schedule adjusted targets. So Tampa Bay should

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Speaker 5: be able to have some success against Alvin Kamara. And

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Speaker 5: then the same thing is true for Michael Thomas. You

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Speaker 5: have Thomas in Week one going three for seventeen on

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Speaker 5: five targets. He played eighty one percent of the snaps

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Speaker 5: in that game, and then he goes five for fifty

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Speaker 5: one on six targets, just fifty five percent of the

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Speaker 5: snaps in the rematch, but overall that's just eight point

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Speaker 5: five yards per catch on his eight catches against his team.

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Speaker 5: Tampa Bay minus fifteen point six DVOA against wide receiver ones,

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Speaker 5: meaning their fifteen point six percent better than average against

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Speaker 5: number one receivers. That's sixth in the league, and they

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Speaker 5: face the second most schedule justice targets per game to

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Speaker 5: number one, So I think they match up very well

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Speaker 5: with both of the Saints top players on offense. And

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Speaker 5: then you look at Drew Brees and he's still not

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Speaker 5: throwing the ball down the field just an averaged up

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Speaker 5: to target at six point oh in the regular season,

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Speaker 5: four point seven last week, four point five and five

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Speaker 5: point oh in the two games against Tampa and Tampa's

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Speaker 5: number seven in DVO against the short pass. So I

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Speaker 5: think that it's going to be somewhat of a struggle

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Speaker 5: for these for the Saints, even though they put up

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Speaker 5: big numbers and in the other two games, one was

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Speaker 5: just that primetime game where Tampa Bay just didn't show up.

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Speaker 5: I expect a better effort this time around, but I

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Speaker 5: think you look at the other side of the ball now,

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Speaker 5: and what killed Tom Brady in that second matchup was

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Speaker 5: he was without Ali Marpette, who's the number three rated

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Speaker 5: guard according to Pro Football Focus, and Brady struggled against

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Speaker 5: pressure on He was under pressure on more than half

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Speaker 5: of his draft backs in that second matchup and just

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Speaker 5: nine of nineteen for seventy six yards four yards in

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Speaker 5: attempt with a pick three sacks. So I think with

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Speaker 5: Marpette there you'll see a much less pressured Brady. And

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Speaker 5: then you look at how this team is playing recently.

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Speaker 5: So last week, Tampa Bay faces Washington, which is obviously

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Speaker 5: one of the best defenses in all football finished number

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Speaker 5: three in defensive DVOA. New Orleans ranks number two, so

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Speaker 5: they're pretty much neck and neck, and Tampa Bay put

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Speaker 5: up five hundred and seven yards.

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Speaker 4: Of total offense.

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Speaker 5: That was sixty nine yards more than Washington had allowed

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Speaker 5: to any other team all season long, and even more promisingly,

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Speaker 5: given that Brady has struggled under pressure. Against the Saints,

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Speaker 5: Brady was pressured only eighteen point six at the time,

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Speaker 5: which is seven percent lower than Washington season average. Last week,

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Speaker 5: so I think Tampa Bay their game a lot of

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Speaker 5: what they struggled with against New Orleans I thought was

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Speaker 5: in the first game it was kind of continuity related.

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Speaker 5: The second game it was game plan related with maybe

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Speaker 5: some primetime kinks mixed in.

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Speaker 4: Just weighed an egg. But I talked about this.

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Speaker 5: Earlier in the year when I was writing about Tampa Bay.

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Speaker 5: I think a lot of their issues against New Orleans

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Speaker 5: are correctable.

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Speaker 4: I think they match up well against New Orleans.

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Speaker 5: So I have this game at a half point in

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Speaker 5: favor of New Orleans. So I have these teams rated

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Speaker 5: pretty evenly, and we can get into home field advantage,

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Speaker 5: which just isn't worth that much this season. So I

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Speaker 5: have this essentially as a coin flip game. Love getting

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Speaker 5: Tampa Bay at the three and a half.

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Speaker 7: Here, I guess for my second pick of the Sunday

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Speaker 7: six pack, I'll since I'm talking about this game, I

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Speaker 7: have the under fifty one and a half here at

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Speaker 7: bet MGM, and I make this game one and a half,

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Speaker 7: So I'm with you there, especially if you can get

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Speaker 7: three and a half.

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Speaker 2: I have home field across the board.

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Speaker 7: In the NFL, it can differ based on certain circumstances,

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Speaker 7: whether matchups, but for the most part, it's one point

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Speaker 7: across the board on average now, but that's lower for

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Speaker 7: division games. There's already familiarity there, so it's about a

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Speaker 7: half a point for division games.

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Speaker 2: So the home field here is not much at offer,

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Speaker 2: just for me and for what it's worth.

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Speaker 7: Since two thousand dogs in playoff games playing a team

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Speaker 7: a third time, so when you're an underdog and the

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Speaker 7: third matchup, there's seventeen and ten against the spread. So

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Speaker 7: last week Rams Browns they both went outright as underdogs

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Speaker 7: twelve to seventeen, one out right overall.

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Speaker 2: Teams that lost both outright.

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Speaker 7: As the Bucks did there four and three against the spread.

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Speaker 7: It's only a sample size is seven over those twenty years.

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Speaker 7: But the reason that I liked the under here and

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Speaker 7: look the Saints the first they played in the first

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Speaker 7: game of the year. It was Brady's first game in Tampa,

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Speaker 7: and there was a lot of fluke special teams plays

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Speaker 7: Buck special teams.

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Speaker 2: Is awful, by the way.

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Speaker 7: And then the other match up Margaret was out was

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Speaker 7: the first game with Antonio Brown. But here's the thing,

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Speaker 7: so there's a lot of fluky stuff. I mean, reason

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Speaker 7: only threw for two hundred and twenty two yards in

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Speaker 7: that second matchup, and they blew them out well worries

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Speaker 7: me really, I mean bringed some six touchdowns no picks

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Speaker 7: in those two games, and there was just a lot

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Speaker 7: of short passes because the Bucks defense what they do

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Speaker 7: is they've run a lot of zone, but they run

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Speaker 7: a three to four and the reason that they're so

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Speaker 7: good against the run is because they play a lot

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Speaker 7: of zone. And the reason they're so good against covering

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Speaker 7: backs is because they play a lot of zone up

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Speaker 7: front and that allows them blitz, that allows them you

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Speaker 7: don't know what linebackers coming in Todd Bowles's defense, so

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Speaker 7: it's it's hard to play man with the way that

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Speaker 7: he wants to play and be so good against the

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Speaker 7: running get pressure. But because of that, they've been playing

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Speaker 7: a lot of off coverage on the outside with their

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Speaker 7: corners all year and they've been playing a lot of

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Speaker 7: zone on the back end. And that's why the Breeze

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Speaker 7: was just able to throw these like four to five

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Speaker 7: year passes up and down the field against Tampa. One

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Speaker 7: of the things you look for and look, look this

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Speaker 7: under fifty one and a half fifty two, try to

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Speaker 7: get fifty two.

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Speaker 2: It's a semi key number.

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Speaker 7: Is you you know you're not going to find I

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Speaker 7: think a total where you're like, wow, I make this

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Speaker 7: two to three points different In the playoffs. We have

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Speaker 7: all this data on how these teams operate, and I

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Speaker 7: think that where you're are going to find your edges

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Speaker 7: just based on and I spent all week digging, I

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Speaker 7: don't know, I the battle time I put into these games.

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Speaker 7: I'm like, how the hell do I ever cap sixteen

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Speaker 7: games a week? When you go down some wormholes in

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Speaker 7: these games. But I think that you're going to see

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Speaker 7: more press on the outside from the Bucks.

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Speaker 2: And this is how I think it's going to.

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Speaker 7: Play out, is these teams that meet for a third time,

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Speaker 7: the defenses can make the adjustments. The team that lost

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Speaker 7: the first two games is able to they have the benefit,

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Speaker 7: all right, we're gonna make adjustments.

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Speaker 2: The team that won the first too easily. What do

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Speaker 2: they really have to change?

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Speaker 7: Drew Brees against press Man this year, completed fifty seven

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Speaker 7: percent of his passes compared to seventy five percent against

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Speaker 7: all coverage, which the Bucks used almost predominantly.

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Speaker 2: The entire game.

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Speaker 7: In that second matchup, defense is now fully healthy, Whites

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Speaker 7: back their secondaries healthy so I think you're going to

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Speaker 7: see more press man on the outside. I think Todd

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Speaker 7: Bowles will make some adjustments to switch up that d.

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Speaker 2: On the other side.

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Speaker 7: Yes, Brady tore up Washington, but I think that was

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Speaker 7: more of an indeamond on what Washington wanted to do.

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Speaker 7: Washington was trying to run like these random stunts. What

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Speaker 7: the hell were they doing?

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Speaker 2: I don't know.

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Speaker 7: It was very odd defensive game plan for me, and

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Speaker 7: as a result, they didn't get much pressure. The Saints

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Speaker 7: don't blitz much, they're right about league average, but they're

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Speaker 7: still able to get pressure.

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Speaker 2: I think there's sixth and pressure rate in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: That's what you have to do against Brady.

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Speaker 7: You have to get pressure against him without blitzing, because

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Speaker 7: if you're blitzing, he's great at.

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Speaker 2: Diagnosing the blitzing get rid of the ball quick.

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Speaker 7: And that's why this year is interception rate versus the

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Speaker 7: Saints six point seven versus the rest of the league

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Speaker 7: one point two. Trey Hendrickson, it looks like Will be back.

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Speaker 7: That's huge. He can just kind of I mean, he

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Speaker 7: was second the NFL in sacks. I believe he dominated

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Speaker 7: Brady this year. I think he sacked them three straight plays.

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Speaker 2: One of them was nullified by a defensive penalty, but

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Speaker 2: that's big.

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Speaker 7: If he's back and it looks like he's treading too

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Speaker 7: that he will play. So I think this Saints defense

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Speaker 7: will be fine here. I also think that the Bucks say, look,

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Speaker 7: the Saints are going to go slower. They're going to

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Speaker 7: try to run the ball, and you can't really run

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Speaker 7: on Tampa. But it's slow passing. They don't really attack downfield,

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Speaker 7: which has been a weakness of Tampa's defense over the

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Speaker 7: past six to seven weeks. But on the other side

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Speaker 7: of the ball, I actually think, look, this goes into

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Speaker 7: the headicap of this that Tampa.

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Speaker 2: Is going to try to run it more, which I don't.

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Speaker 2: I do not agree with that approach in some sense.

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Speaker 2: I do, and that you want to you want.

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Speaker 7: To get some platch working, you don't necessarily need to

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Speaker 7: run to get play action working. But there's been a

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Speaker 7: lot of talk from Bruce arians about needing to run

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Speaker 7: the ball more, and if they do that, that's going

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Speaker 7: to play right into the other stands. I mean, the

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Speaker 7: last time they played now it were a great gamescriper

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Speaker 7: lead and they got blown out right away. But they

297
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Speaker 7: Ronald Jones a rather the ball three times for nine yards.

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Speaker 7: That was their entire their entire rushing attack for the

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Speaker 7: entire game. Let me check, Yeah, and for that had

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Speaker 7: one carry for no yards. So they had four carries

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Speaker 7: for nine yards in the entire game.

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Speaker 2: So I think that they're going.

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Speaker 7: To try and establish to run here more, which I hate,

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Speaker 7: but it's going to help to the under. So in all,

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Speaker 7: I agree with you on the Bucks having a bit

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Speaker 7: of value here. If you can get three and a half,

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Speaker 7: if you could buy three and a half to minus

308
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Speaker 7: one twenty or cheaper, I would do that. I think

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Speaker 7: they're also a viable tease piece. But the way that

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Speaker 7: I foresee this game playing out, so I got like

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Speaker 7: other's three points of value on this under, and.

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Speaker 2: I've adjusted it because of this.

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Speaker 7: But I think that this is going to be because

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Speaker 7: of the adjustments, I think it's going to be a

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Speaker 7: lower scoring game than most in the market is projecting here.

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Speaker 7: I think this ends up being like twenty for twenty

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Speaker 7: and it should be a good one.

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Speaker 2: I don't disagree with your play.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, we talked about I think it was last week.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, with the Saints in the Superdome, you know, I

321
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Speaker 5: think they're kind of a team that the public looks

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Speaker 5: to and says, okay, you know team, they're probably going

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Speaker 5: to go over their indoors.

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Speaker 4: But the last four now have gone under.

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Speaker 5: And you know that Chicago game, I mean, you saw

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Speaker 5: the defense, you saw, but the offense only put up

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Speaker 5: twenty one points going and they should they could have

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Speaker 5: had another touchdown, but still, you know, it was it

329
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Speaker 5: was a struggle for for New orwins against a defense

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Speaker 5: in Chicago I think is not quite as good as

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Speaker 5: this one in Tampa. So yeah, I'm expecting this game

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Speaker 5: to tilt toward the under two.

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Speaker 4: Tampa Bay is do some.

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Speaker 5: You know, some regression from obviously the first two matchups

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Speaker 5: on offense, and last week they dropped thirteen point five

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Speaker 5: percent of their targets. On the regular season they averaged

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Speaker 5: five point three percent, So I don't expect them to

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Speaker 5: have as many drops. But I do expect New Orleans

339
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Speaker 5: to get enough pressure, and I expect Tampa Bay to.

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Speaker 4: Do what they have to do against Breeze. I don't

341
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Speaker 4: expect Breese to attack down the field with any.

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Speaker 2: Kind of consistency.

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Speaker 8: So yeah, I expect this game with Lee hundred as well.

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Speaker 5: All right, for the number three pick in the divisional

345
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Speaker 5: round six pack, my number two pick, I am going

346
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Speaker 5: with the Ravens Bills under forty nine and a half

347
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Speaker 5: at at MGM. See if you can get a fifty

348
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Speaker 5: or fifty and a half, but still going under forty

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Speaker 5: nine and a half. The reason being is I think

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Speaker 5: both of these teams number one, they're very well coached,

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Speaker 5: but number two, I think they can both match up

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Speaker 5: with each other's quarterback. And they didn't play this year,

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Speaker 5: but we did see these two teams play near the

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Speaker 5: tail end of twenty nineteen on December eighth, and it

355
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Speaker 5: was a twenty four to seventeen Baltimore win. Lamar Jackson

356
00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:31,520
Speaker 5: threw for one hundred and forty five yards. He did

357
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Speaker 5: throw three touchdowns, but just one hundred and forty five yards,

358
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Speaker 5: eleven carries for forty yards, zero scrambles, and then Josh

359
00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:42,359
Speaker 5: Allen seventeen of thirty nine for one hundred and forty

360
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Speaker 5: six with a touchdown, six sacks and just two carries

361
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Speaker 5: for nine yards total yardage Baltimore two fifty seven, Buffalo

362
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Speaker 5: two nine third downs Baltimore three of eleven, Buffalo four

363
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Speaker 5: of seventeen and I think both. I think you're gonna see, uh,

364
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Speaker 5: maybe not to that extreme, but I think you're gonna

365
00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:05,600
Speaker 5: see a similar kind of game script where you know,

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Speaker 5: if Lamar Jackson, maybe he doesn't break that you know,

367
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Speaker 5: forty eight yard crippling that you know, touchdown on a

368
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Speaker 5: scramble and you know, Josh Allen he was running a

369
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Speaker 5: little more than he had, but this Baltimore team has

370
00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:21,679
Speaker 5: been been good at corralling him, and they Baltimore was

371
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Speaker 5: really impressive in that they showed that they could go

372
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Speaker 5: in with a certain game plan of taking you know,

373
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Speaker 5: the team's best option away, which was obviously Dereck Henry,

374
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Speaker 5: and they held him to eighteen carries for forty yards.

375
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Speaker 5: And they hold Tennessee's offense that's been lighting teams up

376
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Speaker 5: all year to just thirteen points. So I like Baltimore

377
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Speaker 5: to hold Buffalo down. I think, you know, Sean McDermott,

378
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Speaker 5: great coach. They'll play some zone. I don't think they're

379
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Speaker 5: gonna want to, you know, turn their backs on Lamar,

380
00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:53,040
Speaker 5: but I do think they can, you know, obviously, corral

381
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Speaker 5: him better than better than Tennessee.

382
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Speaker 4: And that wasn't a root because of just how Baltimore

383
00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:00,640
Speaker 4: was playing that. We saw that game.

384
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Speaker 5: Even with Tennessee scoring some early points, that game ended

385
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Speaker 5: up twenty to thirteen. So I think you have a

386
00:19:06,040 --> 00:19:08,399
Speaker 5: little bit of wiggle them here for this one to

387
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Speaker 5: go under in Buffalo, just like the one in Weight

388
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Speaker 5: twenty nineteen.

389
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Speaker 2: I'll take any motherfucker's money if he given it away. Yeah,

390
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Speaker 2: I don't disagree with you unless he has some snow.

391
00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:21,120
Speaker 2: We get some snow over and this total comes down.

392
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Speaker 7: You have all these weapons, including Lamar and the Ravens

393
00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:27,760
Speaker 7: running backs, and the Bills with Josh Allen their receivers

394
00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:31,560
Speaker 7: on a slippery track. I might look at the over,

395
00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,320
Speaker 7: but yeah, I think that I'm leaning under here. Historically

396
00:19:34,359 --> 00:19:37,359
Speaker 7: this has been an over round for what it's worth

397
00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:40,760
Speaker 7: to me if it's worth nothing, But yeah, I mean

398
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Speaker 7: when I look at this game, and I guess I

399
00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:45,200
Speaker 7: should go into the fourth overall pick of the division

400
00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:49,440
Speaker 7: round six pack, which I'll get into why I talk

401
00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:52,680
Speaker 7: about your pick as well. But my second overall pick

402
00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:55,680
Speaker 7: is the Ravens plus three minus one twenty I built

403
00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:56,800
Speaker 7: the minus one twenty five.

404
00:19:57,560 --> 00:19:59,600
Speaker 2: Look Bill's mafia. I think you guys are a legit

405
00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:03,640
Speaker 2: super threat. I think that if you win this game,

406
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Speaker 2: you can easily beat Kansas City or Cleveland. I make

407
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Speaker 2: you a.

408
00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:12,800
Speaker 7: Small favorite here, right about a half point favorite. I

409
00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:17,520
Speaker 7: think minus point six exactly. I want you factoring home field.

410
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Speaker 2: So but with the key.

411
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Speaker 7: Number of three, I have to take the Ravens at

412
00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:24,560
Speaker 7: minus one twenty or better. So when I look at

413
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Speaker 7: this game, look, the Raves offense obviously down their mojo

414
00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:30,439
Speaker 7: of late the last five games in the regular season.

415
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Speaker 7: Last week against the Titans, it's Lamar finding his legs.

416
00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:39,240
Speaker 7: But the Bills run defense. Then they played really well

417
00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:41,880
Speaker 7: against the Ravens last year, and I think that that game. Look,

418
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Speaker 7: I mean, I throw a lot of the Josh Allen

419
00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:45,240
Speaker 7: stats from last year. He's a different quarterback now, he's

420
00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:47,560
Speaker 7: got Diggs, but last year they you got to see

421
00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:50,440
Speaker 7: this unique Ravens offense and they probably did a better

422
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Speaker 7: job than any other defense in the NFL last year

423
00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:55,879
Speaker 7: during the regular season against the Ravens told in the

424
00:20:55,880 --> 00:21:00,919
Speaker 7: season low rushing yard total in the process, Allen was awful.

425
00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:03,480
Speaker 7: But he's a completely different quarterback now. But I think

426
00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:05,760
Speaker 7: that experience will help. They're also a run funnel defense.

427
00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:09,160
Speaker 7: They encourage teams to run against them, which I think

428
00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:11,000
Speaker 7: that they won't do. Here you'll see more of their

429
00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:13,639
Speaker 7: safeties coming down and trying to stop the run and

430
00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:15,480
Speaker 7: putting spies on lamar et cetera.

431
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Speaker 2: So I think that they'll they'll they'll be okay.

432
00:21:19,119 --> 00:21:21,600
Speaker 7: Against the run compared to what you would normally think

433
00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:24,119
Speaker 7: because they don't they're not going to play their normal

434
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:25,440
Speaker 7: defense against the Ravens.

435
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Speaker 2: So the question what it comes down to is, you know,

436
00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:30,959
Speaker 2: and I think the Ravens will be able to hit

437
00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:33,000
Speaker 2: some still be able to hit some explosive runs.

438
00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:35,199
Speaker 7: They'll put a couple of drives together and they're going

439
00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:36,600
Speaker 7: to take They're going to chew the clock.

440
00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:37,600
Speaker 2: I was all over the Ravens.

441
00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:41,959
Speaker 7: Titans under last last week because of this UH and

442
00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:44,399
Speaker 7: their defense is now fully healthy. And the Ravens defense

443
00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:47,960
Speaker 7: dominated the Titans. I mean people were talking about Tadehill

444
00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:50,080
Speaker 7: and that offense. They were a top two or three

445
00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:54,200
Speaker 7: offense all year. Now the Titans sucked like they've got

446
00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:56,640
Speaker 7: shut down. They are three yards to play and second

447
00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:59,840
Speaker 7: anth scored three points. Bryan Tannehill was almost a zero

448
00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:01,240
Speaker 7: EPA per.

449
00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:04,080
Speaker 1: Dropback Ryan Tanner, Thrill.

450
00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:07,680
Speaker 7: David por Davis, but he had zero catches. AJ Brown

451
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:09,600
Speaker 7: I was okay with them not calling that push offf

452
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:12,959
Speaker 7: but he had a great drive six catches eighty yards

453
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:13,280
Speaker 7: and that.

454
00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:15,160
Speaker 2: Was the second half of one catch penyards.

455
00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:18,600
Speaker 7: Like their offense got shut down, very good shutdown Henry

456
00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:21,840
Speaker 7: and their corners on the back end shut down their receivers.

457
00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:23,879
Speaker 7: So but the question of this game comes down to

458
00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:28,040
Speaker 7: ken the Ravens shutdown. Josh Allen has been playing amazing

459
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:32,280
Speaker 7: and he's faced in eight of their seventeen games this year.

460
00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:35,440
Speaker 7: He's faced the top eleven DBA pass so he's been

461
00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:36,879
Speaker 7: doing it against great competition.

462
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:39,000
Speaker 2: The question is what.

463
00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:43,160
Speaker 7: Will the Ravens do against Josh Allen, who's been so

464
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:46,800
Speaker 7: good against the blitz first in touchdowns, first in yards,

465
00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:49,680
Speaker 7: top three big time throws. The Ravens are the number

466
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:51,560
Speaker 7: one blitz heavy team in the NFL, has puts on

467
00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:54,840
Speaker 7: over forty percent of their place. He's also been great

468
00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:58,359
Speaker 7: against Cover one, that's what the Ravens play most of.

469
00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:04,280
Speaker 7: That's their main shell. The Ravens who held But the

470
00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:07,280
Speaker 7: Ravens held quarterbacks to an eighty passer rating in Cover one,

471
00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:10,920
Speaker 7: which it usually flits out of, which is very very

472
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 7: very good. Ravens are also number two and exposive play

473
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:15,840
Speaker 7: percentage allowed one of the things you need to be

474
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:19,120
Speaker 7: strong at against the Bills. Now one of the things

475
00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:21,399
Speaker 7: that I've loved. I still think the Raves are bringing pressure.

476
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:23,160
Speaker 7: No matter what people are saying, like, oh, Josh Allen's

477
00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:25,280
Speaker 7: been good against the Blitz, Yeah, I mean he has,

478
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:29,119
Speaker 7: but let's look at the pressure numbers. Josh Allen with

479
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:32,440
Speaker 7: a clean pocket has been unbelievable this year. You don't

480
00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:35,240
Speaker 7: want to give him a clean back under pressure. Here's

481
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 7: a tripper que which quarterback has been better from a

482
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:39,400
Speaker 7: quarterback rating perspective this year?

483
00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:42,919
Speaker 2: Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. The answer is Lamar Jackson.

484
00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:45,679
Speaker 7: Allen's completing under fifty percent of his passes one under pressure,

485
00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:48,159
Speaker 7: twenty first in the league. Two yards per chep you

486
00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:50,919
Speaker 7: or six of his ten picks capable under pressure. So like,

487
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:54,080
Speaker 7: his numbers aren't great under pressure. So the Ravens are

488
00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:56,240
Speaker 7: going to try to get pressure and they're going to

489
00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:58,879
Speaker 7: bring pressure. And last year it worked and he had

490
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:01,160
Speaker 7: a bunch of fumbles. There's quarterback now, but they're still

491
00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:04,000
Speaker 7: going to be pressure against it. That's kind of their

492
00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:06,840
Speaker 7: calling guard on the back end. They can also match

493
00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:09,320
Speaker 7: up in men. The Raves have struggle against four wide

494
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:13,239
Speaker 7: receiver sets after the corners have been heard, and they

495
00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:15,359
Speaker 7: have the best group of corners in the NFL for

496
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:17,720
Speaker 7: my money, right there with the Rams. But I would

497
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:19,960
Speaker 7: still take the Ravens group over them. You're gonna see

498
00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:22,560
Speaker 7: Marlon Humphrey in the slot most of the night. That'll

499
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:24,639
Speaker 7: be against DAGs twenty five ers in the time against

500
00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:28,160
Speaker 7: Beasley the rest. Either Jimmy Smith, who led the NFL

501
00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:31,280
Speaker 7: in yards per snap and was arguably the best corner

502
00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:33,800
Speaker 7: from a production standpoint this year in the NFL. He's

503
00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:35,760
Speaker 7: back and healthy. He'll be on the outside on one side,

504
00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:38,880
Speaker 7: and Peters. The game literally could come down to Peters

505
00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:42,800
Speaker 7: picking off a pass or jumping a double move and

506
00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 7: getting burnt.

507
00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:44,400
Speaker 2: Like literally, that.

508
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:46,920
Speaker 7: Could decide the game. It wouldn't shock me. But that's

509
00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:49,200
Speaker 7: as good as it gets on the outside. So, yes,

510
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:51,080
Speaker 7: Josh Allen has been good against the blitz. Yes, Josh

511
00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:53,520
Speaker 7: Allen has been good against Cover one. The Ravens are

512
00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:56,280
Speaker 7: good at blitz and they're gonna play Cover one. But

513
00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 7: Josh Allen isn't playing against these three corners on the

514
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:01,080
Speaker 7: outside every week.

515
00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:01,880
Speaker 2: On top of.

516
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:05,280
Speaker 7: That, the Ravens have shown me Wig Martindale, the defensive winner,

517
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 7: that they're willing to make adjustments, which is huge here.

518
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:10,040
Speaker 7: I think that you're going to see some zone looks

519
00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:12,000
Speaker 7: on the back end, which Shout Allen has struggled with.

520
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:15,640
Speaker 7: But last last week against the Titans, in the first half,

521
00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:17,320
Speaker 7: they blitzed on sixty five percent of.

522
00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:20,200
Speaker 2: Their defensive places. I mean, that's enormous. They usually usually

523
00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:22,600
Speaker 2: around forty five percent, which leads a league, but they

524
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:25,919
Speaker 2: were sixty five percent and they were kind of they.

525
00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 7: Were playing man with their linebackers and the Titans were

526
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:31,719
Speaker 7: able to get some stuff underneath. The second half, they

527
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:33,840
Speaker 7: played more zone with their linebackers. They would dropping them

528
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:36,960
Speaker 7: back into those hooks. Took that completely away, and they

529
00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:41,359
Speaker 7: only blitzed on thirty percent of their defensive steps. That's

530
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:43,840
Speaker 7: right around league average. So they went from sixty five

531
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:47,200
Speaker 7: to thirty percent. On the On the pick that Tattanhe threw,

532
00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:52,080
Speaker 7: they simulated pressure dropped everyone and Taddehel kind of paddicked

533
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:55,119
Speaker 7: them through it. So the Ravens are really like before,

534
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:57,080
Speaker 7: they were just like, we're gonna blitz all the time.

535
00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 7: Like last year. It's because they didn't have a good Taskwach.

536
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:03,080
Speaker 7: They couldn't get any pressure just with their front four.

537
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:05,119
Speaker 7: But that's why they got Campbell, That's why they got

538
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:07,240
Speaker 7: in Dockway, That's why when they went out and got

539
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:10,480
Speaker 7: some you know, fast buy backers that they use in

540
00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:14,000
Speaker 7: simulated pressure, like Patrick Queen. So it's not just gonna

541
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:15,439
Speaker 7: be all blitz all the time. And last year the

542
00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:18,200
Speaker 7: Ravens were just really good in the blitz and not

543
00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:20,000
Speaker 7: not great when they didn't blitz. This year one of

544
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:22,120
Speaker 7: the best defense in the NFL when they don't blitz.

545
00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:24,200
Speaker 7: So it's not just gonna be blitz all the time.

546
00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:27,159
Speaker 7: I think this Ravens defense, now that they're fully healthy,

547
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:30,399
Speaker 7: is playing as well as any team in the NFL.

548
00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:32,440
Speaker 2: And they they could do it all.

549
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:35,040
Speaker 7: So there are some scheme things that you look at

550
00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:37,800
Speaker 7: and say, all right, Allen has done this well, which

551
00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:40,919
Speaker 7: the Ravens against these easy defenses, which the Ravens do.

552
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:43,000
Speaker 7: But I think the Ravens will be up for the task.

553
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:46,040
Speaker 7: And you know, I basically make this number around Bills

554
00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:49,160
Speaker 7: a half point favorite. So like I think the Bills

555
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:51,600
Speaker 7: from my model are going to win more times than not.

556
00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:53,239
Speaker 7: They played this game one hundred times. I think they

557
00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:57,119
Speaker 7: when you know fifty one times. But I have to

558
00:26:57,119 --> 00:26:59,840
Speaker 7: take the three special teams advantage for the Ravens as well.

559
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:02,560
Speaker 7: I think this is a close one. Obviously, three is

560
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:05,040
Speaker 7: a key number. Keep it on the weather, it's buffalo.

561
00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:08,080
Speaker 7: But I don't disagree with you, Under, but I'm rolling

562
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:11,440
Speaker 7: with the Ravens. Is my second pick. By that three,

563
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:13,920
Speaker 7: I think it's starting to juice up. Wait to see

564
00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:15,119
Speaker 7: if you can get a three. As it doesn't, I

565
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:15,479
Speaker 7: would buy.

566
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:18,040
Speaker 2: It's also a great tease piece to Chiga Teez through

567
00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:18,959
Speaker 2: three and seven.

568
00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:21,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, I have the game projected at about a half

569
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:24,080
Speaker 5: point as well, so I was thinking about the Ravens.

570
00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:26,200
Speaker 4: It's it's just such a toss up game.

571
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:28,040
Speaker 5: I do love the under as well, just because I

572
00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:30,160
Speaker 5: think both of these teams are so well coached.

573
00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 4: And we'll match it well.

574
00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:34,639
Speaker 5: But even looking at last week, and for as explosive

575
00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:37,440
Speaker 5: as this Bill's offense is, the Colts have been regressing

576
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:40,160
Speaker 5: a little bit on defense, and there were a lot

577
00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:42,879
Speaker 5: of close calls in that in that game. Now, some

578
00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:45,600
Speaker 5: great plays by Josh Allen and Gabriel Davis, but did

579
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:47,919
Speaker 5: Davis get his foot down on you know, two or

580
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:50,000
Speaker 5: three of those maybe probably not.

581
00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:54,480
Speaker 7: There are one touchdown at dad of the halfles because

582
00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:57,760
Speaker 7: the Colts jumped off sides. You had the Colts miss

583
00:27:57,960 --> 00:27:59,880
Speaker 7: a field goal to the Colts gover on fourth down,

584
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:01,399
Speaker 7: not get it at the five.

585
00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 2: Like I mean, you nmed. The Colts were the better team.

586
00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:06,040
Speaker 7: I think the Colts top played in that game, and

587
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:08,360
Speaker 7: the Bills just got every single break.

588
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:10,960
Speaker 4: The Bills.

589
00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:11,360
Speaker 7: Make me.

590
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 4: Throw your hands up, throw your.

591
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 9: Hand now, the Bills.

592
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:19,520
Speaker 4: I'm making it happen.

593
00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:22,720
Speaker 3: Hey, this is producer man. I do feel an obligation

594
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:24,520
Speaker 3: as a Bills fan to point out that the Bills

595
00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:27,640
Speaker 3: didn't get every break this game. As inside the two

596
00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:31,720
Speaker 3: minute warning, Colts wide receiver Zach Pascal caught a fucking pass,

597
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:34,880
Speaker 3: stood up, got the ball punched out by Jordan Poyer.

598
00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 3: The Bills recovered that ball, the refs refused to review

599
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 3: the play, causing Buffalo to burn a timeout to have

600
00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:46,080
Speaker 3: it reviewed. The review was pretty clearly a fumble, as

601
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:50,320
Speaker 3: the broadcast booth, every single person watching at home, god

602
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:54,800
Speaker 3: and seven thousand Hamburg drunk Western New Yorkers in the stands.

603
00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 2: Could all see.

604
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:57,640
Speaker 3: So Bills did catch a lot of breaks, but they

605
00:28:57,720 --> 00:29:00,200
Speaker 3: didn't catch them all. Go Bills back to you.

606
00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:03,160
Speaker 2: The Bill's just got every single break. You could see.

607
00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:05,920
Speaker 7: It took a while for Josh Allen against that Cover

608
00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:07,760
Speaker 7: two defense. He was not comfortable, while he made some

609
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:12,520
Speaker 7: great throws on the run towards the sideline, kind of improvising.

610
00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 7: But the thing that I'm so interested to learn this

611
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:17,440
Speaker 7: week is if the Ravens win, and I hope they

612
00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:19,680
Speaker 7: do for our Super Bowl futures and we can get

613
00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:22,000
Speaker 7: to our pep talk because of that. If they win,

614
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:24,360
Speaker 7: I want to, like, it's just gonna be another data

615
00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:27,880
Speaker 7: point for me to see how they play a team

616
00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:30,600
Speaker 7: that throws it a lot with the quarterback has been

617
00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:33,120
Speaker 7: good against the Blitz and good against Cover one, but

618
00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:37,560
Speaker 7: this is like Patrick Mahomes light, so like I really

619
00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:39,760
Speaker 7: want to see because next week that's been the kryptonite

620
00:29:39,800 --> 00:29:42,880
Speaker 7: for the Ravens defense. So this is kind of a

621
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 7: good warm up for that potential game with the Chiefs.

622
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:49,920
Speaker 2: It's Baltimore, gentlemen, the Gods will not save you.

623
00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:52,840
Speaker 7: And for everyone who followed the Ravens Super Bowl futures

624
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:56,160
Speaker 7: from you know, before they went on the five winning shot,

625
00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:57,800
Speaker 7: we got thirty thirty to one, twenty five to one,

626
00:29:57,840 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 7: thirty five to one.

627
00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:01,520
Speaker 2: That's what we're going to dedicate the uh pep talk too.

628
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:03,280
Speaker 2: Let's go on a little run here.

629
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 5: Yeah, So with that, today's coaches pep Talk comes to

630
00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:11,360
Speaker 5: us from Tom Cruise in the nineteen ninety six film

631
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:16,320
Speaker 5: Jerry Maguire. It's his rant, and we're dedicating it to

632
00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:17,400
Speaker 5: Baltimore Ravens.

633
00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:25,200
Speaker 10: Well, don't worry, I'm not gonna do what do you

634
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:27,840
Speaker 10: all think I'm gonna do, which is just flip out.

635
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:31,640
Speaker 11: But let me just let me just say, as I

636
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 11: ease out of the office, I helped build that there

637
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:41,200
Speaker 11: is such a thing as manners, a way of treating people.

638
00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:46,200
Speaker 10: If anybody else wants to come with me, this moment

639
00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:51,440
Speaker 10: will be the moment of something real and fun and

640
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:55,840
Speaker 10: inspiring in this god forsaken business, and we will do

641
00:30:55,920 --> 00:30:57,000
Speaker 10: it together.

642
00:30:57,920 --> 00:30:58,720
Speaker 2: Who's coming with me?

643
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:00,600
Speaker 10: With me?

644
00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:09,240
Speaker 4: Who's coming with me? This is embarrassing, all right?

645
00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:11,600
Speaker 5: I totally feel you on that. I mean, this is

646
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:14,760
Speaker 5: just a great coaching matchup. And I think whichever team

647
00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:18,840
Speaker 5: wins this games, if Kansas City can can be Cleveland,

648
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:21,920
Speaker 5: which I'll get to in a second great coaching matchup,

649
00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:24,320
Speaker 5: McDermott or Harbo against Andy Reid.

650
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:25,320
Speaker 4: So looking forward to that.

651
00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:30,160
Speaker 7: Andy, you had a cheeseburger in celebration of the AFC

652
00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:31,000
Speaker 7: Championship game.

653
00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:31,640
Speaker 2: Is that true?

654
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:34,520
Speaker 11: I did good one just one pambados thick.

655
00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:39,560
Speaker 5: For the fifth overall pick in the division round six pack.

656
00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:44,640
Speaker 5: My third pick, I'm going with the Cleveland Browns plus

657
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:49,120
Speaker 5: ten at bet MGM against the Kansas City Chiefs. And

658
00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:52,760
Speaker 5: this is just a case of the number being too high.

659
00:31:52,840 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 5: And you look at how these teams have played this year.

660
00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:59,160
Speaker 5: Cleveland has lost three even even with that negative point differential,

661
00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:00,840
Speaker 5: you know, in the regular season.

662
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 7: Now they're at zero exactly, Yeah, through seventeen games, which

663
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:04,680
Speaker 7: is really funny.

664
00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:07,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, so they got it's a zero point differential.

665
00:32:07,440 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 5: But they've only lost three of their seventeen games played

666
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:16,640
Speaker 5: this year by double digits. So it was a thirty

667
00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:20,880
Speaker 5: eight six game to the Ravens in Week one, thirty

668
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:23,320
Speaker 5: eight seven to the Steelers in Week six, and then

669
00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:26,560
Speaker 5: sixteen to six in the one of those windy games to.

670
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:28,720
Speaker 4: The Raiders in Week eight.

671
00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:32,320
Speaker 5: So second half of the season, Browns have been not

672
00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:36,240
Speaker 5: lost by double digits. And then you look at the

673
00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:38,760
Speaker 5: Chiefs and as good as they've been in as good

674
00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:42,080
Speaker 5: as Andy Reid has been with more than seven days

675
00:32:42,080 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 5: to prepare forty and twenty seven sixty percent against the

676
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:47,600
Speaker 5: spread for his career, just two and two this year, though,

677
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:50,600
Speaker 5: But as good as he's been in these type of spots,

678
00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:53,680
Speaker 5: Kansas City just has not been covering as of weight.

679
00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:55,800
Speaker 5: They've been winning a lot of close games. Now can

680
00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:57,840
Speaker 5: they flip a switch. You're gonna have a Kansas City

681
00:32:57,840 --> 00:33:01,160
Speaker 5: team from Week nine on covered in just one of

682
00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:03,920
Speaker 5: their eight games one and seven against the spread. They

683
00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:11,000
Speaker 5: won by two, four, three, six, six, three three, and

684
00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:13,440
Speaker 5: then you know, the last game of the year, I'm

685
00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:15,200
Speaker 5: not going to count that they lost by seventeen, but

686
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 5: all of their wins coming by six or less over

687
00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:23,000
Speaker 5: the second half of the season. So just looking at

688
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:25,160
Speaker 5: both of these teams and how they're playing, especially down

689
00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:28,280
Speaker 5: the stretch. You know, we've seen it with Cleveland Pittsburgh

690
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:30,720
Speaker 5: even with no coaching staff, you could just get breaks,

691
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:34,240
Speaker 5: and it's just hard to win by double digits in

692
00:33:34,280 --> 00:33:37,520
Speaker 5: the playoffs. You look at the history of the Visional

693
00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:42,120
Speaker 5: Round underdogs and they are thirty nine twenty seven and

694
00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:44,320
Speaker 5: one against the spread since two thousand and three.

695
00:33:44,680 --> 00:33:47,720
Speaker 4: Fifty nine percent. It's just really tough to cover a

696
00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:48,680
Speaker 4: number this big.

697
00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:53,040
Speaker 5: I have it around nine, and I still feel like

698
00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:56,200
Speaker 5: there's some value here. It looks like some of our

699
00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:58,880
Speaker 5: other experts have it even lower. So it looks like

700
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:00,720
Speaker 5: we're in agreement that this is it's just you know,

701
00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:04,080
Speaker 5: obviously Kansas City coming off a bye could blow them out,

702
00:34:04,120 --> 00:34:09,600
Speaker 5: but I think median outcome, Kansas City wins by the

703
00:34:09,640 --> 00:34:11,080
Speaker 5: thing in single digits.

704
00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:14,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. I'm gonna end up playing the Browns

705
00:34:14,480 --> 00:34:16,080
Speaker 2: here if you can get ten. I'm waiting.

706
00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:17,719
Speaker 7: I'm trying to figure out if it's going to go

707
00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:19,880
Speaker 7: to ten and a half or not first, so I'm watching,

708
00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:22,080
Speaker 7: and then once I feel like it's gonna if it

709
00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:23,520
Speaker 7: goes it's gonna go to nine and a half, I'm

710
00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:25,400
Speaker 7: gonna play ten if ten and.

711
00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:28,880
Speaker 2: A half never pops. But I make this eight, and yeah, that's.

712
00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:31,839
Speaker 7: Adjusting for their bye and for Reid here coming off

713
00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:34,839
Speaker 7: of the bye. But I really think that, I mean,

714
00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:37,840
Speaker 7: the only fear here is that we're the Chiefs just

715
00:34:38,080 --> 00:34:40,799
Speaker 7: all year saying we know we're gonna win the Super Bowl,

716
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:42,879
Speaker 7: we don't really have to be that good, and now

717
00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:46,360
Speaker 7: they're going to come out here and then just dominate again.

718
00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:47,279
Speaker 10: I don't.

719
00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:49,279
Speaker 2: I don't necessarily think I believe that.

720
00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:52,640
Speaker 7: Like, even when they were like trying to clinch everything

721
00:34:52,680 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 7: at the end of the year, their offense still wasn't right.

722
00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:56,960
Speaker 7: Why isn't it right? Well, their offensive lines just not

723
00:34:57,080 --> 00:35:00,600
Speaker 7: the same as it was last year. Mitchell Schwartzy play,

724
00:35:01,160 --> 00:35:02,000
Speaker 7: which I.

725
00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:03,520
Speaker 2: Think that would really help. I don't think he's going.

726
00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:05,240
Speaker 7: To play this week, but if they get him back,

727
00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:07,520
Speaker 7: they've really been missing him. The offensive line just isn't

728
00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:09,560
Speaker 7: the same. There's just been something that's been off with

729
00:35:09,600 --> 00:35:12,759
Speaker 7: the offense. And the defense still has its issues. And

730
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:16,680
Speaker 7: I think that the Browns matchup extremely well with this

731
00:35:16,840 --> 00:35:20,200
Speaker 7: Chiefs defense. Yes, the Browns can run the ball, and

732
00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:22,440
Speaker 7: the Chiefs are what thirty first in the league in

733
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:24,440
Speaker 7: EPA per Ruchs.

734
00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:27,080
Speaker 2: It's not it's a horrible run defense.

735
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:30,920
Speaker 7: But I also think the short passing can work against

736
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:32,040
Speaker 7: this Chiefs defense.

737
00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:34,080
Speaker 2: The Chiefs they blitz a lot.

738
00:35:34,120 --> 00:35:35,960
Speaker 7: They blitzed the fourth highest grade in the league, their

739
00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:38,319
Speaker 7: top five and passer rating and completion percentage when they

740
00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:42,600
Speaker 7: do blitz. Baker Mayfield of late has been just unbelievable.

741
00:35:42,800 --> 00:35:46,560
Speaker 7: I mean, and it's these short passes that it's a

742
00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:50,279
Speaker 7: lot of scheme. But last week against the Steelers, he

743
00:35:50,440 --> 00:35:53,240
Speaker 7: was I think fourteen of eighteen, one hundred and sixty yards,

744
00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:57,160
Speaker 7: two touchdowns, no picks against the Blitz. Since you know,

745
00:35:57,200 --> 00:36:01,160
Speaker 7: over the past ten games him and Rodgers are number

746
00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:04,040
Speaker 7: one in the NFL on their first red throws passer

747
00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:07,799
Speaker 7: rating wise, I mean, he's been great, and I think

748
00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:11,080
Speaker 7: how he's performed against the Blitz and they're rolling him out.

749
00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:14,960
Speaker 7: It's all based on play action and that's that's not

750
00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:18,240
Speaker 7: that's how you can move the ball against his Kansas

751
00:36:18,280 --> 00:36:19,080
Speaker 7: City defense.

752
00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:22,160
Speaker 2: And you know so.

753
00:36:22,200 --> 00:36:23,960
Speaker 7: But on the other side, so I think that the

754
00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:25,239
Speaker 7: Browns are gonna be able to move it. They get

755
00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:28,280
Speaker 7: Potonio back, Stefancy will be back.

756
00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:30,200
Speaker 2: I don't.

757
00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:32,279
Speaker 7: I don't see many ways that this Chiefs defense is

758
00:36:32,280 --> 00:36:34,279
Speaker 7: going to get many stops. So I think that the

759
00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:36,799
Speaker 7: Browns can keep up, especially with the way Mayfield is

760
00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:38,160
Speaker 7: playing on the.

761
00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:38,960
Speaker 2: Other side of the ball.

762
00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:41,880
Speaker 7: At least you do get Denzel a wardback the lowest

763
00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:44,760
Speaker 7: completion percentage of out of any corner of man coverage

764
00:36:44,760 --> 00:36:49,160
Speaker 7: of the past three seasons. But let's let's not try

765
00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:51,239
Speaker 7: to put lipstick on a pig. This Brown's defense is

766
00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:54,799
Speaker 7: horrendous Uh, it's so bad. I mean, it's hard to

767
00:36:54,840 --> 00:36:58,279
Speaker 7: really describe how bad it is, but I'll try. If

768
00:36:58,280 --> 00:37:00,799
Speaker 7: you remove the three heavy win games they played this year,

769
00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:04,120
Speaker 7: they are the second worst defensive points per drive of

770
00:37:04,200 --> 00:37:07,400
Speaker 7: any team in the NFL. It's a bottom five defense

771
00:37:07,800 --> 00:37:10,839
Speaker 7: if you remove those three win games. And they're very

772
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:13,560
Speaker 7: turnover reliant and you want to really rely on turnovers

773
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:16,799
Speaker 7: from Patrick Mahones, that's not going to get you far so,

774
00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:19,240
Speaker 7: and they really struggle against tight ends.

775
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:20,960
Speaker 2: So wardback can help a little bit.

776
00:37:21,040 --> 00:37:26,800
Speaker 7: But I don't see how the Chiefs won't score thirty, thirty, five, forty.

777
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:28,520
Speaker 7: I mean, they should put up their points here, but

778
00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:29,960
Speaker 7: I think the Browns can match them.

779
00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:32,359
Speaker 2: And when you're catching ten, it's a lot of points

780
00:37:32,400 --> 00:37:33,640
Speaker 2: that you can get a back door too.

781
00:37:34,120 --> 00:37:36,600
Speaker 7: So I agree with you. I think the Browns here

782
00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:39,839
Speaker 7: are the play. There's also the Chiefs could come out

783
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:43,239
Speaker 7: a little rusty here. They did last year at the

784
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:45,840
Speaker 7: Divide and they were down twenty one nothing to the Texans.

785
00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:48,359
Speaker 7: I mean, yeah, they scored fifty straight and I guess

786
00:37:48,360 --> 00:37:51,239
Speaker 7: that could happen again. But teams the rest of their

787
00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:53,920
Speaker 7: starts in Week seventeen then had a buy and then

788
00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:56,800
Speaker 7: we're favorites in this round or zero and five against

789
00:37:56,800 --> 00:37:59,439
Speaker 7: the spread the past ten years number one and two

790
00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:02,720
Speaker 7: seeds twenty seven thirty seven to one against the spreaders,

791
00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:05,359
Speaker 7: a favorite since two thousand and three. This round after

792
00:38:05,440 --> 00:38:08,160
Speaker 7: a bye, so there's a free trend players. There's something

793
00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:10,400
Speaker 7: small sample size that. But I do think that they

794
00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:12,440
Speaker 7: could be a little rusty. The timing could be off.

795
00:38:12,440 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 7: Of the timing has just been off in general with

796
00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:16,520
Speaker 7: this offense. So maybe they come out and they just

797
00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:20,000
Speaker 7: they look phenomenal, they turn on the switch. I don't know,

798
00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:22,600
Speaker 7: but I think this line is way too high. So

799
00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:26,960
Speaker 7: I completely agree with you. And in regards to the total,

800
00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:28,719
Speaker 7: if this gets a fifty five, if Kink will have

801
00:38:28,719 --> 00:38:31,120
Speaker 7: to play the over my only concern.

802
00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:33,239
Speaker 2: So as I said, I think that the Chiefs will

803
00:38:33,239 --> 00:38:35,279
Speaker 2: get to like thirty five forty. I think that the

804
00:38:35,280 --> 00:38:37,920
Speaker 2: Browns will get to the twenty eight to thirty at

805
00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:39,720
Speaker 2: a minimum, And I wouldn't be shocked if the Browns

806
00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:40,360
Speaker 2: win this game.

807
00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:43,719
Speaker 7: Like telling you Raven's host SATSY Championship game, let's go,

808
00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:48,840
Speaker 7: but no kidding, but not kidding. But in regards to

809
00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:51,799
Speaker 7: totally the only thing that's scary about the over is

810
00:38:52,080 --> 00:38:55,680
Speaker 7: if the brown is if the Browns approach this two

811
00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:58,160
Speaker 7: ways because I love their staff, but they could come

812
00:38:58,200 --> 00:38:59,719
Speaker 7: out here and just say we're gonna run it. They've

813
00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:02,400
Speaker 7: a lot on early downs. I mean, don't Mahomes just

814
00:39:02,400 --> 00:39:04,319
Speaker 7: gonna chuck it. He's gonna throw it all over and

815
00:39:04,360 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 7: that's how you beat the Browns. But they've been passing

816
00:39:06,560 --> 00:39:07,680
Speaker 7: on on early downs.

817
00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:08,320
Speaker 2: It's been working.

818
00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:09,759
Speaker 7: But are they just gonna come out here and go

819
00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:13,279
Speaker 7: heavy with Kareem Hunt, revenge game and Nick Chubb and

820
00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:15,680
Speaker 7: then just run them because you can run on Kansas City,

821
00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:20,400
Speaker 7: control the clock, go slower, keep Mahomes off the field,

822
00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:23,440
Speaker 7: and then on defense, knowing that your past defense sucks,

823
00:39:23,920 --> 00:39:27,399
Speaker 7: drop eight, keep everything in front of you, just kind

824
00:39:27,400 --> 00:39:29,680
Speaker 7: of and then like, let the Mahomes will take it

825
00:39:29,719 --> 00:39:31,520
Speaker 7: if you give it to them. Let the Chi's run

826
00:39:31,560 --> 00:39:33,799
Speaker 7: it for four to five yards of play, take the

827
00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:37,600
Speaker 7: easy passes, and fifty five fifty six wherever it's at

828
00:39:37,640 --> 00:39:39,000
Speaker 7: now is a high number.

829
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:42,160
Speaker 2: So that's what's gonna probably keep me off the over.

830
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:44,719
Speaker 2: So but yeah, I agree with you. I think the

831
00:39:44,719 --> 00:39:47,319
Speaker 2: Browns is the play. Yeah, crazy, I can't believe I'm

832
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:49,400
Speaker 2: saying that. National Roundbod Browns is the play at the

833
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:52,360
Speaker 2: Chiefs in twenty and twenty one. It's crazy, it's.

834
00:39:52,160 --> 00:39:53,440
Speaker 4: It's it's ridiculous.

835
00:39:53,480 --> 00:39:55,759
Speaker 5: But I'm with you on how you kind of broke

836
00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:58,759
Speaker 5: down the total because that I was initially kind of

837
00:39:58,760 --> 00:40:00,560
Speaker 5: going back and forth because I do you have this,

838
00:40:01,000 --> 00:40:03,239
Speaker 5: you know, or at least that has a total projected

839
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:05,680
Speaker 5: about maybe a half point over the market.

840
00:40:05,719 --> 00:40:08,560
Speaker 4: But I adjusted it down a little bit because I actually.

841
00:40:08,160 --> 00:40:11,799
Speaker 5: Do think the Browns will try to come out and

842
00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:15,440
Speaker 5: execute that exact game plan you know you talked about,

843
00:40:15,440 --> 00:40:18,160
Speaker 5: because they want to game forty eight thirty seven against

844
00:40:18,160 --> 00:40:20,600
Speaker 5: the Steelers. But we've seen this happen to the Browns

845
00:40:20,640 --> 00:40:24,320
Speaker 5: multiple times now. They came out monster first half against Tennessee.

846
00:40:24,400 --> 00:40:26,239
Speaker 5: What was it like, thirty five nothing or something like that,

847
00:40:26,239 --> 00:40:28,560
Speaker 5: thirty five to seven and that game ends up forty

848
00:40:28,600 --> 00:40:31,200
Speaker 5: one to thirty five against Pittsburgh twenty eight to nothing,

849
00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:34,480
Speaker 5: and then Pittsburgh goes on a you know, thirty seven

850
00:40:34,520 --> 00:40:37,520
Speaker 5: to twenty run. So this defense can't afford, you know,

851
00:40:37,560 --> 00:40:40,440
Speaker 5: even if they get up, they don't want to prolong

852
00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:43,960
Speaker 5: this game, especially not against Kansas City, against against a

853
00:40:44,000 --> 00:40:46,839
Speaker 5: team like Pittsburgh. You're okay with that, because we saw

854
00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:49,959
Speaker 5: a big ben they're they're dinking and dunking, and guys

855
00:40:50,000 --> 00:40:52,480
Speaker 5: are dropping it and can't snap, and they're just more

856
00:40:52,560 --> 00:40:57,560
Speaker 5: mistake prone. Kansas City not very turnover prone, not very

857
00:40:57,680 --> 00:41:00,239
Speaker 5: very mistake prone, going to have the time to prepare.

858
00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:03,640
Speaker 5: It's been proven that you drop back against my homes

859
00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:05,320
Speaker 5: this year. That's how you kind of keep it cloth.

860
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:09,799
Speaker 5: So I do expect Cleveland to execute that. So I'm

861
00:41:09,840 --> 00:41:12,960
Speaker 5: actually kind of hoping this total continues to climb because

862
00:41:13,160 --> 00:41:15,920
Speaker 5: I've seen it at fifty seven at some places. I

863
00:41:15,960 --> 00:41:18,320
Speaker 5: think we might get one of those ridiculously high totals

864
00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:21,120
Speaker 5: where he gets some value on the under here as

865
00:41:21,120 --> 00:41:21,840
Speaker 5: the week progresses.

866
00:41:22,360 --> 00:41:25,040
Speaker 7: Yeah, I don't know if I have the stones to

867
00:41:25,040 --> 00:41:28,279
Speaker 7: bet the under, but that some of those reasons will

868
00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:30,920
Speaker 7: keep me off the over unless it gets down to

869
00:41:30,960 --> 00:41:33,600
Speaker 7: like fifty five or below fifty five or fifty four

870
00:41:33,640 --> 00:41:35,480
Speaker 7: and a half, then I think I'd have to jump

871
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:39,319
Speaker 7: with the allies, just based on the success that I

872
00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:40,640
Speaker 7: think both offenses will have.

873
00:41:41,120 --> 00:41:43,400
Speaker 9: I hope you're enjoying this great Action network podcast. I

874
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:45,040
Speaker 9: want to make sure you know about the Locked On

875
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:48,399
Speaker 9: podcast network. Locked On as a daily podcast on your

876
00:41:48,520 --> 00:41:49,120
Speaker 9: favorite team.

877
00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:51,479
Speaker 2: Welcome to you Lockdown forty nine ers. You are locked

878
00:41:51,480 --> 00:41:53,640
Speaker 2: down of the Dallas matriage. Came everybody to the Lockdown

879
00:41:53,680 --> 00:41:54,520
Speaker 2: Lakers podcast.

880
00:41:54,719 --> 00:41:55,279
Speaker 4: Let's go.

881
00:41:55,560 --> 00:41:58,480
Speaker 9: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

882
00:41:58,520 --> 00:42:00,719
Speaker 9: know your team better than anyone and give you the

883
00:42:00,800 --> 00:42:03,560
Speaker 9: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

884
00:42:03,760 --> 00:42:08,080
Speaker 9: locked on your favorite team. Subscribe to your locked on podcast.

885
00:42:11,320 --> 00:42:14,680
Speaker 7: All right, for third pick and the final pick of

886
00:42:14,760 --> 00:42:18,960
Speaker 7: the divisional round six pack, We've already been through three games.

887
00:42:19,000 --> 00:42:24,759
Speaker 7: We've already been through Buck Saints, We've already been through Chiefs, Browns, Ravens, Bells,

888
00:42:25,520 --> 00:42:28,240
Speaker 7: and the one thing we haven't got to is arguably

889
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:30,520
Speaker 7: the ugliest, potentially the ugliest on the board.

890
00:42:30,560 --> 00:42:32,440
Speaker 2: It is the lowest total on the board.

891
00:42:33,080 --> 00:42:38,839
Speaker 7: For my third pick, I'm going with the.

892
00:42:37,600 --> 00:42:39,480
Speaker 2: Under forty five and a half.

893
00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:45,120
Speaker 7: I would play the Rams at plus seven minus one

894
00:42:45,320 --> 00:42:46,680
Speaker 7: fifteen or better.

895
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:50,080
Speaker 2: If you can get that, I make this like five ish.

896
00:42:50,360 --> 00:42:52,960
Speaker 7: Now, there's some questions of injury questions with the RAMS,

897
00:42:53,000 --> 00:42:55,080
Speaker 7: but at seven it is such a key number based

898
00:42:55,080 --> 00:42:57,480
Speaker 7: on my numbers, minus one fifteen or better Rams are

899
00:42:57,480 --> 00:42:59,880
Speaker 7: a play for me for sure. This under is just

900
00:43:00,000 --> 00:43:01,880
Speaker 7: based on how I did this game will play out.

901
00:43:02,200 --> 00:43:06,600
Speaker 7: So let's start with when the and I like some

902
00:43:06,640 --> 00:43:08,920
Speaker 7: first half under two for what it's worth. Following the

903
00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:12,000
Speaker 7: action app, you'll see all my plays there. Let's start

904
00:43:12,000 --> 00:43:15,200
Speaker 7: when the Packers have the ball. I think that iron

905
00:43:15,239 --> 00:43:18,240
Speaker 7: Rod has been playing unbelievably well out of his mind

906
00:43:18,280 --> 00:43:20,520
Speaker 7: all year. It's been the biggest difference between the Packers

907
00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:23,120
Speaker 7: this year and the Packers last year. He's playing in

908
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:25,759
Speaker 7: just such a high level, basically at his when he was.

909
00:43:25,719 --> 00:43:28,359
Speaker 2: At his peak. But I think that this and this

910
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:30,279
Speaker 2: Rams defense, this is strict on strength.

911
00:43:30,360 --> 00:43:32,360
Speaker 7: This is the best passing offense this season versus the

912
00:43:32,360 --> 00:43:35,560
Speaker 7: best passing defense. The Rams could stop the run like

913
00:43:35,719 --> 00:43:38,360
Speaker 7: they don't even need They haven't the lowest percentage of

914
00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:40,239
Speaker 7: runs against with eight in the box this year, and

915
00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:41,680
Speaker 7: they were really good against the runs.

916
00:43:41,680 --> 00:43:43,280
Speaker 2: Still, they were really.

917
00:43:43,120 --> 00:43:45,520
Speaker 7: Good against the pass also, itllly against the best, one

918
00:43:45,520 --> 00:43:47,560
Speaker 7: of the best pass defenses we've seen in the past

919
00:43:47,560 --> 00:43:49,879
Speaker 7: ten years. They also get a ton of pressure their

920
00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:52,239
Speaker 7: top five and pressure eight, so they could do a

921
00:43:52,239 --> 00:43:56,520
Speaker 7: lot of the things that the Bucks did against Rogers,

922
00:43:56,560 --> 00:43:58,839
Speaker 7: which is really when we saw him shut down.

923
00:43:58,880 --> 00:44:01,239
Speaker 2: They you know, they they really.

924
00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:04,799
Speaker 7: Confused and they got pressure and they kind of made

925
00:44:04,840 --> 00:44:07,240
Speaker 7: them a little hesitant. And that's what the Rams are doing.

926
00:44:07,440 --> 00:44:10,080
Speaker 7: The Rams are changing up their coverages in the back end,

927
00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:13,960
Speaker 7: they're getting pressure up front, and they're just confusing opposing

928
00:44:14,000 --> 00:44:15,840
Speaker 7: quarterbacks and they're playing a lot of zones on the

929
00:44:15,880 --> 00:44:18,759
Speaker 7: back end. People are saying, like Ramsey versus Atoms, that

930
00:44:18,800 --> 00:44:21,359
Speaker 7: could happen a little bit, but Ramsey hasn't really been

931
00:44:21,400 --> 00:44:24,719
Speaker 7: shadowing and the Rams play a lot of zone so

932
00:44:24,800 --> 00:44:27,279
Speaker 7: even if you have Atoms on one side, they can

933
00:44:27,560 --> 00:44:28,879
Speaker 7: send them into the middle of the field, and it's

934
00:44:28,880 --> 00:44:31,360
Speaker 7: not like Ramsey's gonna fallo them based on certain coverages.

935
00:44:31,880 --> 00:44:34,359
Speaker 7: But luckily for the Rams, they have three corners who

936
00:44:35,040 --> 00:44:37,799
Speaker 7: right to the top twenty of PFF's coverage grade this year.

937
00:44:38,120 --> 00:44:40,600
Speaker 7: The pass defense is just so good. Number one in

938
00:44:40,719 --> 00:44:44,600
Speaker 7: explosive pass defense and that's huge because Rogers through deep

939
00:44:44,600 --> 00:44:47,480
Speaker 7: balls the second highest clip behind only Brady this year

940
00:44:47,880 --> 00:44:50,960
Speaker 7: one hundred and twenty nine quarterback grating twelve touchdowns, no

941
00:44:51,080 --> 00:44:55,080
Speaker 7: picks that on those passes. Well, the Rams they allowed

942
00:44:55,280 --> 00:45:00,640
Speaker 7: on deep passes twenty four percent completion percentage, thirty eight rating,

943
00:45:01,000 --> 00:45:04,879
Speaker 7: two touchdowns, five picks, one of the stupidest stats I've

944
00:45:04,880 --> 00:45:10,680
Speaker 7: seen all year is from a DVA perspective, deep passes

945
00:45:10,719 --> 00:45:13,400
Speaker 7: to the right side of the field negative is better

946
00:45:13,560 --> 00:45:19,040
Speaker 7: with DVOA. The Rams defense negative ninety eight percent. The

947
00:45:19,080 --> 00:45:23,360
Speaker 7: next best pass defense was negative three. The third best

948
00:45:23,440 --> 00:45:24,400
Speaker 7: is positive three.

949
00:45:24,760 --> 00:45:28,360
Speaker 2: I mean they are giving up nothing deep at all,

950
00:45:28,719 --> 00:45:29,840
Speaker 2: so they can get pressure.

951
00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:32,200
Speaker 7: They're going to confuse Rogers on the back end. Where

952
00:45:32,280 --> 00:45:36,279
Speaker 7: where is the Rams defense really weak? I mean play action.

953
00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:38,799
Speaker 7: They've been bad against play action. They've been bet on

954
00:45:38,880 --> 00:45:41,120
Speaker 7: the middle of the field. Their linebackers aren't creating coverage.

955
00:45:41,200 --> 00:45:44,080
Speaker 7: So Big Bob Kanya maybe he gets a bunch of

956
00:45:44,080 --> 00:45:47,000
Speaker 7: targets here. We also might see like a run heavier

957
00:45:47,040 --> 00:45:50,200
Speaker 7: attack from the floor against this defense to set up

958
00:45:50,200 --> 00:45:52,120
Speaker 7: the play action, and sometimes the floor falls in love

959
00:45:52,160 --> 00:45:54,400
Speaker 7: with the run way too much with the way Rogers

960
00:45:54,480 --> 00:45:54,920
Speaker 7: is playing.

961
00:45:55,440 --> 00:45:57,040
Speaker 2: So what else should I know about this place?

962
00:45:57,280 --> 00:45:59,879
Speaker 7: You know Vince's trophy, Yeah we want it back.

963
00:46:00,040 --> 00:46:02,160
Speaker 2: Yeah I've heard that. But you also have to remember,

964
00:46:02,440 --> 00:46:05,080
Speaker 2: I'm assuming Donald, and Donald's going to go if he's

965
00:46:05,120 --> 00:46:05,960
Speaker 2: completely limited.

966
00:46:05,960 --> 00:46:08,799
Speaker 7: Obviously he's the best defensive player in the NFL. That's

967
00:46:08,840 --> 00:46:11,080
Speaker 7: really gonna hurt the Rams. Playing the under but I'm

968
00:46:11,080 --> 00:46:14,160
Speaker 7: assuming he's gonna be close to healthy. Remember there's no

969
00:46:14,520 --> 00:46:17,880
Speaker 7: Baktiari here. Billy Turner filled in for him in week seventeen.

970
00:46:17,880 --> 00:46:18,479
Speaker 2: He's bad.

971
00:46:19,680 --> 00:46:23,399
Speaker 7: People forgot that, but Bachtier is. I don't think people

972
00:46:23,400 --> 00:46:25,480
Speaker 7: are talking about that enough here against the Rams defense.

973
00:46:25,840 --> 00:46:27,480
Speaker 7: So I think the Rams defense is going to hold

974
00:46:27,520 --> 00:46:29,040
Speaker 7: hold their own. They've been the best defense in the

975
00:46:29,120 --> 00:46:31,879
Speaker 7: NFL for almost every metric this year. They can take

976
00:46:31,920 --> 00:46:33,960
Speaker 7: away the deep pass. They have a bunch of corners

977
00:46:33,960 --> 00:46:37,279
Speaker 7: who can hang with DeVonta Adams no matter where he is.

978
00:46:37,880 --> 00:46:41,280
Speaker 7: I think the Rams defense is gonna hold the Packers

979
00:46:41,280 --> 00:46:41,719
Speaker 7: in check.

980
00:46:42,080 --> 00:46:44,160
Speaker 2: Packers will get their own. Rogers is gonna put up

981
00:46:44,200 --> 00:46:46,279
Speaker 2: his points. I mean, I think that they can get to,

982
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:50,960
Speaker 2: you know, twenty twenty four, but I think that's about it.

983
00:46:51,239 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 7: Or when the Rams have the ball, what's gonna hap

984
00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:54,399
Speaker 7: When the Rams of the ball, well, the Packers don't

985
00:46:54,400 --> 00:46:57,759
Speaker 7: get much pressure. That could be good for golf, But golf,

986
00:46:57,800 --> 00:46:58,800
Speaker 7: I think you're playing well.

987
00:46:58,640 --> 00:46:59,959
Speaker 2: With a clean pocket these days.

988
00:47:00,719 --> 00:47:04,480
Speaker 7: You could see John Wolford from a stretcher, Blake Bortles

989
00:47:05,000 --> 00:47:08,160
Speaker 7: or Jared Goff with nine fingers.

990
00:47:08,600 --> 00:47:09,160
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know.

991
00:47:09,480 --> 00:47:11,920
Speaker 7: I assume Golf they pay him one hundred million, But

992
00:47:12,040 --> 00:47:13,759
Speaker 7: I mean they chose Wolford of him last week.

993
00:47:13,960 --> 00:47:15,880
Speaker 2: They could choose Bortles over them this week. But I'm

994
00:47:15,880 --> 00:47:16,760
Speaker 2: assuming the O Golf.

995
00:47:17,160 --> 00:47:21,880
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Blake Bortles experience. You've just been bortled.

996
00:47:22,320 --> 00:47:24,360
Speaker 7: But he has pins in his thumb and he couldn't

997
00:47:24,360 --> 00:47:25,960
Speaker 7: throw the ball last week. Well, now you're going in

998
00:47:26,040 --> 00:47:26,879
Speaker 7: twenty degree weather.

999
00:47:27,000 --> 00:47:29,080
Speaker 2: I'm sure that's not gonna be great to throw riders

1000
00:47:29,080 --> 00:47:30,520
Speaker 2: by the way, twenty six to nine to one against

1001
00:47:30,520 --> 00:47:33,960
Speaker 2: the spread and outdoor games when the temperatures are below freezing,

1002
00:47:34,160 --> 00:47:37,080
Speaker 2: So I don't think golf is gonna do anything through

1003
00:47:37,120 --> 00:47:38,719
Speaker 2: the air. Cooper Cup is hurt too.

1004
00:47:38,719 --> 00:47:41,160
Speaker 7: You look at the numbers with the Rams offense without

1005
00:47:41,239 --> 00:47:45,480
Speaker 7: Cup over the past couple of years, embarrassing. I mean,

1006
00:47:45,920 --> 00:47:49,839
Speaker 7: close to the worst passing offense in the NFL over

1007
00:47:49,880 --> 00:47:53,000
Speaker 7: the past three seasons. From an EPA perspective, when Kup

1008
00:47:53,040 --> 00:47:55,360
Speaker 7: is not on the field, he's questionable. But the Packer's

1009
00:47:55,400 --> 00:47:59,960
Speaker 7: been good against slot receivers anyway. Channon Sullivan's been pretty underrated.

1010
00:48:00,560 --> 00:48:03,400
Speaker 2: If the Brams don't throw it downfield, they're gonna what

1011
00:48:03,440 --> 00:48:06,839
Speaker 2: They're gonna do. Is that I'm convinced is they're gonna

1012
00:48:06,840 --> 00:48:09,520
Speaker 2: hand it too cam Akers thirty five times.

1013
00:48:09,840 --> 00:48:11,920
Speaker 7: They're gonna try to run on this Packers defense. Now,

1014
00:48:11,920 --> 00:48:14,120
Speaker 7: you can run this Packers defense. But again, it's a

1015
00:48:14,200 --> 00:48:16,319
Speaker 7: run final defense. So I'm assuming they're gonna bring their

1016
00:48:16,360 --> 00:48:18,360
Speaker 7: safeties up. It's not gonna be as easy as it

1017
00:48:18,400 --> 00:48:21,359
Speaker 7: normally is against the Packers. But I don't think that

1018
00:48:21,640 --> 00:48:24,319
Speaker 7: this is an aggressive Packers defense. I don't think Sean

1019
00:48:24,400 --> 00:48:27,000
Speaker 7: McVay is gonna trust Goff throwing the ball or whoever

1020
00:48:27,040 --> 00:48:29,319
Speaker 7: he has out there. He's gonna run it. He's gonna

1021
00:48:29,320 --> 00:48:32,920
Speaker 7: trust his defense. They're gonna play field position. They're gonna ugly.

1022
00:48:32,719 --> 00:48:35,479
Speaker 2: This game up. That's the really their only chance here.

1023
00:48:35,600 --> 00:48:38,160
Speaker 2: I think their defense, their historically great defense, can hang.

1024
00:48:38,600 --> 00:48:40,839
Speaker 2: I think they go super conservative. Yeah.

1025
00:48:41,080 --> 00:48:44,400
Speaker 7: Another thing for this under in situational neutral scenario is

1026
00:48:44,600 --> 00:48:47,600
Speaker 7: the Packers are thirty second in the end in the

1027
00:48:47,680 --> 00:48:51,360
Speaker 7: NFL and tempo they are the slowest team in the league.

1028
00:48:51,680 --> 00:48:53,560
Speaker 2: The Rams are twelfth.

1029
00:48:53,960 --> 00:48:56,880
Speaker 7: They will throw in tempo un certagize, they will just

1030
00:48:56,920 --> 00:48:59,799
Speaker 7: go super fast. I do not think you see that

1031
00:49:00,200 --> 00:49:03,520
Speaker 7: under any circumstances. Week they need to shorten this game.

1032
00:49:03,719 --> 00:49:06,040
Speaker 7: They're going to run at a ton, so I think

1033
00:49:06,080 --> 00:49:07,759
Speaker 7: you're gonna have two teams that are you know, the

1034
00:49:07,800 --> 00:49:10,360
Speaker 7: Packers are just naturally going slower, and I think the

1035
00:49:10,440 --> 00:49:12,160
Speaker 7: Rams are gonna go super slow, try to run the ball,

1036
00:49:12,200 --> 00:49:15,399
Speaker 7: play field position. I think this Rams defense is one

1037
00:49:15,400 --> 00:49:17,040
Speaker 7: of the few defense in the NFL that can really

1038
00:49:17,080 --> 00:49:21,200
Speaker 7: slow down this Packers offense. I like the Rams because

1039
00:49:21,239 --> 00:49:22,399
Speaker 7: I just the numbers a.

1040
00:49:22,320 --> 00:49:22,799
Speaker 2: Bit too high.

1041
00:49:22,840 --> 00:49:24,480
Speaker 7: I think this will be really low scoring. Seven is

1042
00:49:24,520 --> 00:49:27,160
Speaker 7: even more valuable in a low scoring game. But I

1043
00:49:27,280 --> 00:49:29,520
Speaker 7: like the under. The first half under in the game

1044
00:49:29,600 --> 00:49:31,759
Speaker 7: under Rams. Only to get seven first half under in

1045
00:49:31,800 --> 00:49:34,239
Speaker 7: game under even more at the I think it it

1046
00:49:34,239 --> 00:49:39,200
Speaker 7: sets up probably being like a twenty three seventeen twenty

1047
00:49:39,239 --> 00:49:41,960
Speaker 7: three twenty Max final.

1048
00:49:42,360 --> 00:49:43,680
Speaker 2: So yeah, commit the under here.

1049
00:49:44,120 --> 00:49:44,799
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like it.

1050
00:49:44,840 --> 00:49:47,440
Speaker 5: I think for this Thay, like you kind of pointed

1051
00:49:47,440 --> 00:49:50,640
Speaker 5: it out, the Rams really have to shorten the game here.

1052
00:49:50,680 --> 00:49:53,319
Speaker 5: Even though they have a great defense, and you know

1053
00:49:53,360 --> 00:49:55,880
Speaker 5: they they have been you know, going with some tempo

1054
00:49:56,120 --> 00:49:59,160
Speaker 5: historically under McVeigh, they have to shorten this game here.

1055
00:49:59,160 --> 00:49:59,960
Speaker 4: You look at cam Aker.

1056
00:50:00,160 --> 00:50:02,319
Speaker 5: His rushing attempt prop is sixteen and a half at

1057
00:50:02,320 --> 00:50:07,920
Speaker 5: bet MGM twenty one, twenty nine, fifteen, twenty one, twenty

1058
00:50:07,960 --> 00:50:11,640
Speaker 5: eight average of twenty two point eight median of twenty

1059
00:50:11,680 --> 00:50:16,480
Speaker 5: one rushing attempts in his last five games, uh fifteen.

1060
00:50:16,600 --> 00:50:18,760
Speaker 4: Sixteen and a half is his is his prop.

1061
00:50:18,800 --> 00:50:21,359
Speaker 5: But he's gone over he has twenty one or more

1062
00:50:21,400 --> 00:50:24,000
Speaker 5: and four of the last five fifteen in the game

1063
00:50:24,040 --> 00:50:27,600
Speaker 5: against the Jets where they got behind Way, which could happen,

1064
00:50:27,640 --> 00:50:29,440
Speaker 5: but I think you have a pretty good chance of

1065
00:50:29,480 --> 00:50:32,560
Speaker 5: cam Akers going over that, and he actually has, you know,

1066
00:50:32,920 --> 00:50:36,839
Speaker 5: tier Rams pick. Acres has improved as a receiver of Way,

1067
00:50:37,000 --> 00:50:39,520
Speaker 5: and Sean mcvay's great a kind of scheming these plays up.

1068
00:50:39,520 --> 00:50:43,440
Speaker 5: But in those five games, one for twenty two, so

1069
00:50:43,520 --> 00:50:46,520
Speaker 5: twenty two yards, you know, a pop, then eleven point five,

1070
00:50:46,560 --> 00:50:47,680
Speaker 5: you know, two for twenty three.

1071
00:50:48,320 --> 00:50:49,640
Speaker 4: Then he had one for negative one.

1072
00:50:49,680 --> 00:50:51,640
Speaker 5: But then the last two games four fifty two and

1073
00:50:51,640 --> 00:50:54,239
Speaker 5: two for forty five. So over these last five games

1074
00:50:54,239 --> 00:50:57,040
Speaker 5: where Acres has been the feature back, he's got ten

1075
00:50:57,120 --> 00:50:59,879
Speaker 5: passes for one hundred and forty one yards fourteen point

1076
00:50:59,920 --> 00:51:03,920
Speaker 5: one yards per So I think Acres is going to

1077
00:51:04,000 --> 00:51:06,399
Speaker 5: be the workhorse here. For all the reasons you mentioned,

1078
00:51:06,440 --> 00:51:09,240
Speaker 5: Packers do play well covering on the outside, I think,

1079
00:51:10,160 --> 00:51:13,120
Speaker 5: and pretty well in the slot. And hey, this like

1080
00:51:13,160 --> 00:51:16,560
Speaker 5: even though we haven't seen it. Tampa Bay showed it

1081
00:51:16,600 --> 00:51:19,600
Speaker 5: as possible earlier this year, we haven't seen it. He's

1082
00:51:19,640 --> 00:51:22,160
Speaker 5: probably gonna win MVP, but could be one.

1083
00:51:22,040 --> 00:51:25,440
Speaker 4: Of those Rogers games. Could be one of those Rogers games.

1084
00:51:25,360 --> 00:51:28,279
Speaker 5: Right, we saw against San Francisco, we saw against Tampa Bay.

1085
00:51:28,400 --> 00:51:30,279
Speaker 5: No one dares to say it after he just threw

1086
00:51:30,400 --> 00:51:32,839
Speaker 5: for forty eight touchdowns in five kicks, and he did

1087
00:51:32,840 --> 00:51:35,719
Speaker 5: finish top five and passer rating under pressure, so did

1088
00:51:35,760 --> 00:51:38,640
Speaker 5: fix some things under pressure. But if there was ever

1089
00:51:38,680 --> 00:51:41,839
Speaker 5: a matchup where he would get stifled and have one

1090
00:51:41,840 --> 00:51:44,520
Speaker 5: of those games where it's just inexplicable, it would be

1091
00:51:44,560 --> 00:51:44,919
Speaker 5: this one.

1092
00:51:45,080 --> 00:51:46,440
Speaker 4: So yeah, I like that.

1093
00:51:46,800 --> 00:51:48,319
Speaker 2: I've really did.

1094
00:51:48,239 --> 00:51:50,239
Speaker 7: A lot of counting on the Rams defense here, and

1095
00:51:50,280 --> 00:51:52,279
Speaker 7: I've looked I looked into it for a long time

1096
00:51:52,280 --> 00:51:54,320
Speaker 7: to see how they would match up. I think that

1097
00:51:54,360 --> 00:51:56,400
Speaker 7: they're gonna keep them in this game, because if they don't,

1098
00:51:56,680 --> 00:51:59,080
Speaker 7: then you're gonna have golf trying to throw and then

1099
00:51:59,080 --> 00:52:02,319
Speaker 7: you get turnovers and it gets really messy. So I

1100
00:52:02,320 --> 00:52:05,040
Speaker 7: think that if they can stay close, that this sets

1101
00:52:05,080 --> 00:52:07,040
Speaker 7: up for Rams and the under the One thing that

1102
00:52:07,080 --> 00:52:09,920
Speaker 7: does worry me besides if the Rams, if this game

1103
00:52:09,960 --> 00:52:13,000
Speaker 7: starts to get out of hand, is special teams. And

1104
00:52:13,080 --> 00:52:14,560
Speaker 7: I'm not it's not going to keep you off the game,

1105
00:52:14,600 --> 00:52:16,880
Speaker 7: but both special teams have been really bad, So I

1106
00:52:16,920 --> 00:52:21,200
Speaker 7: don't want like a block punt, a muff punt. It

1107
00:52:21,480 --> 00:52:23,640
Speaker 7: does fear and it does scare me with these two teams,

1108
00:52:23,640 --> 00:52:27,400
Speaker 7: But that's kind of a side worry here. Rams it

1109
00:52:27,480 --> 00:52:27,960
Speaker 7: under for me.

1110
00:52:28,400 --> 00:52:30,480
Speaker 5: Yeah, And I mean you're not going to get advante

1111
00:52:30,719 --> 00:52:32,040
Speaker 5: I obviously you don't think you're going to get a

1112
00:52:32,120 --> 00:52:36,560
Speaker 5: Devonte Adams blow up on the sidewine, force the ball

1113
00:52:36,600 --> 00:52:40,080
Speaker 5: to them pick six, which you know would make that

1114
00:52:40,160 --> 00:52:43,000
Speaker 5: that game is probably forty three last week if not

1115
00:52:43,120 --> 00:52:46,560
Speaker 5: for that point, which was just utterly ridiculous by the way.

1116
00:52:46,120 --> 00:52:49,160
Speaker 4: Uh so we have that working for you as well. Yeah,

1117
00:52:49,160 --> 00:52:50,759
Speaker 4: I like the under and RAMS.

1118
00:52:52,600 --> 00:52:55,279
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Speaker 5: All right, that is going to wrap it up for

1137
00:53:52,200 --> 00:53:57,160
Speaker 5: our divisional round Sunday six pack to recap, I am

1138
00:53:57,200 --> 00:54:00,000
Speaker 5: going with the Tampa Bay Bucks plus three and a half,

1139
00:54:00,080 --> 00:54:04,960
Speaker 5: half Ravens Bills under forty nine and a half and

1140
00:54:05,480 --> 00:54:12,360
Speaker 5: the Browns plus ten. Stuck is going with the Bucks

1141
00:54:12,400 --> 00:54:17,080
Speaker 5: Saints under fifty one and a half, Ravens plus three

1142
00:54:17,719 --> 00:54:23,960
Speaker 5: and the Packers Rams under forty five and a half.

1143
00:54:24,560 --> 00:54:25,239
Speaker 4: That's going to do it.

1144
00:54:25,239 --> 00:54:28,560
Speaker 5: For our six pack and for you guys that are

1145
00:54:28,560 --> 00:54:30,960
Speaker 5: looking to follow our picks. You can find Stucky on

1146
00:54:31,000 --> 00:54:33,959
Speaker 5: the Action Network app at Stucky two, you can find

1147
00:54:34,000 --> 00:54:37,480
Speaker 5: me at Chris Raybon, and you can find the Sunday

1148
00:54:37,520 --> 00:54:40,319
Speaker 5: six Pack picks at Sunday six Pack. You can also

1149
00:54:40,360 --> 00:54:42,840
Speaker 5: find Stucky on Twitter at Stucky two and me on

1150
00:54:42,840 --> 00:54:45,799
Speaker 5: Twitter at Chris Raybon. Be sure to check out actionnetwork

1151
00:54:45,920 --> 00:54:50,719
Speaker 5: dot com for all of our NFL betting content. Good

1152
00:54:50,840 --> 00:54:52,680
Speaker 5: luck this weekend. Let's get this money.

1153
00:54:53,840 --> 00:55:10,800
Speaker 4: Ray, We're finished talking