WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2023 NFL Week 4 Guessing Lines Show 0:00:03.480 --> 0:00:04.000 Check it down. 0:00:04.720 --> 0:00:07.600 The numbers told the story. They always down. Swando's idiots 0:00:07.600 --> 0:00:08.880 will believe in the analytics. 0:00:08.960 --> 0:00:12.920 This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander gons. 0:00:12.680 --> 0:00:14.200 Good Monday morning to you. 0:00:14.280 --> 0:00:16.400 It is a numbers game at Visa, the sports betting network, 0:00:16.480 --> 0:00:19.560 Visa dot Com, the Visa app, game plus iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, 0:00:19.640 --> 0:00:22.960 and of course the DraftKings Network DK Networks, Gil Alexander 0:00:23.040 --> 0:00:26.200 Kelly Bidlin alive from bar Canada at the d down 0:00:26.320 --> 0:00:30.520 Town guessing lines for week number four in the National 0:00:31.000 --> 0:00:34.159 Football League. Kelly, good morning to you, sir. Morning. How 0:00:34.240 --> 0:00:36.720 you doing. Is there anything better than waking up on 0:00:36.760 --> 0:00:39.239 a Monday morning and talking about football? Anything? 0:00:40.280 --> 0:00:43.199 Anything? If my survivor choice was still alive, Yeah, it 0:00:43.240 --> 0:00:45.280 would be. That could be a little bit better. See 0:00:45.520 --> 0:00:47.160 there's my donation to CIRCA. Thanks. 0:00:47.240 --> 0:00:49.120 Jags, some of us still alive. 0:00:49.280 --> 0:00:49.680 Hit it. 0:00:50.479 --> 0:00:52.199 Oh he's not. He's out on the trigger. See he's 0:00:52.240 --> 0:00:53.120 not where. He's not ready to go. 0:00:53.200 --> 0:00:54.000 It's not ready to go with this. 0:00:54.040 --> 0:00:55.440 Okay, that works. 0:00:56.800 --> 0:00:58.840 We're not yet in mid season four. We'll get there. 0:00:59.840 --> 0:01:01.720 I am alive, I said on Friday, as like some 0:01:01.800 --> 0:01:03.920 combination of the Jags and the Chiefs. I did lose 0:01:03.960 --> 0:01:07.760 one to the Jags. I've lost one each week. I 0:01:07.760 --> 0:01:09.920 started with five, so I've got two left. Two left 0:01:09.959 --> 0:01:13.840 in a week of Survivor carnage. A week of Survivor 0:01:13.920 --> 0:01:18.160 Carnage where Kelly from what was left in the Circus 0:01:18.200 --> 0:01:20.520 Survivor pool of five. So it started out with nine 0:01:20.600 --> 0:01:24.000 thou two hundred and sixty seven. There were five nine 0:01:24.080 --> 0:01:27.720 hundred and twenty four left after two weeks, fifty eight 0:01:27.800 --> 0:01:32.240 point one two percent heading into tonight's doubleheader of that 0:01:32.400 --> 0:01:36.600 remaining group got bounced yesterday over forty percent on the 0:01:36.959 --> 0:01:41.800 Jacksonville Jaguars from the beginning of the pool. From the 0:01:41.840 --> 0:01:47.160 beginning of the pool, A just here's the thing, let me, 0:01:47.280 --> 0:01:48.240 let me do it this, let me do as a 0:01:48.240 --> 0:01:52.120 comparison to last year, so far, out of the nine thousand, 0:01:52.160 --> 0:01:54.840 two hundred and sixty seven that started, twenty four hundred 0:01:54.840 --> 0:01:57.480 and eighty one are left. That means that's seventy three 0:01:57.560 --> 0:02:02.160 point two three percent of the beginning Survivor pool have 0:02:02.280 --> 0:02:06.040 been bounced again not yet with week three done, seventy 0:02:06.040 --> 0:02:07.360 three point two three percent. 0:02:07.520 --> 0:02:09.120 Do you know how many? You know what percentage was 0:02:09.160 --> 0:02:10.480 out after week three last year? 0:02:11.480 --> 0:02:15.480 Sixty two seventy four point seventy three percent, so it's 0:02:15.520 --> 0:02:20.600 almost identical. It is almost identical, one point five percent behind, 0:02:20.560 --> 0:02:22.840 and we still have two games to go, almost the 0:02:22.919 --> 0:02:26.400 exact same percentage, which corroborates my point from the beginning 0:02:26.840 --> 0:02:30.280 that all it doesn't matter if you buy fifty survivor entries. 0:02:30.600 --> 0:02:33.359 It's all proportional, it's all. That's why I think there's 0:02:33.400 --> 0:02:37.080 a point of redundancy with survivor entries. You shouldn't be 0:02:37.160 --> 0:02:40.000 buying us. Sorry, Derek Stevens, I apologize for this, but literally, like, 0:02:40.040 --> 0:02:42.480 if you buy fifty of them proportionally, you're still going 0:02:42.520 --> 0:02:43.560 to be down the same amount. 0:02:44.360 --> 0:02:46.080 I love the up the amount just because I think 0:02:46.120 --> 0:02:49.200 the conversation about it's fascinating. It's like, what the what 0:02:49.240 --> 0:02:51.880 the real or the best number, ideal number is to 0:02:52.040 --> 0:02:52.320 play it? 0:02:52.560 --> 0:02:54.800 Yeah, yeah, it's it's tremidous. So two. I had two 0:02:54.840 --> 0:02:57.280 on Kansas City, I had one on the Jaguars. We'll 0:02:57.280 --> 0:03:00.160 talk obviously about each and every game week number three. 0:03:00.240 --> 0:03:02.200 The biggest thing I can say before we get into 0:03:02.240 --> 0:03:04.840 the games from yesterday. First of all, for those who 0:03:04.880 --> 0:03:06.480 are just tuning in for the first time, we've done 0:03:06.480 --> 0:03:09.160 this for over a decade, Chris Andrews and I have 0:03:09.200 --> 0:03:12.080 done it. And the reason that we do this is 0:03:12.120 --> 0:03:16.959 because the first impression is typically the best. I won't 0:03:17.000 --> 0:03:20.320 say typically, oftentimes most of the time the best. Kelly 0:03:20.400 --> 0:03:23.040 last Monday is a perfect example. Well, we're the three 0:03:23.080 --> 0:03:26.920 games sided. I love the Detroit Lions, I love the 0:03:26.960 --> 0:03:30.959 Seattle Seahawks. I love the Miami Dolphins. Bingo, bengo, bengo. 0:03:32.120 --> 0:03:33.760 I probably should have said bongo on the last one, 0:03:34.160 --> 0:03:37.040 but and now Miami, even Miami on the By the 0:03:37.160 --> 0:03:38.640 end of the week, I was already with I was like, 0:03:38.800 --> 0:03:40.200 I don't know if I like that pick so much, 0:03:40.280 --> 0:03:43.280 but it shows you the first impression is the right one. Yeah, 0:03:43.360 --> 0:03:44.720 typically that's what happened. 0:03:44.760 --> 0:03:46.800 I think there's also a Wattle injury news right that 0:03:47.120 --> 0:03:48.760 probably made you a little bit more concerned. 0:03:48.760 --> 0:03:50.760 It made me a little bit. Wes Reynolds had a 0:03:50.760 --> 0:03:53.000 good dissertation on Denver on the megapod. It was like 0:03:53.040 --> 0:03:56.720 the whole thing. But man, I mean, by the way, 0:03:56.760 --> 0:03:59.119 let me just say this about Kelly, though, you're what 0:03:59.440 --> 0:04:00.320 in millions. 0:04:00.160 --> 0:04:03.960 Through three weeks eleven and four, bruh, eleven and four, 0:04:04.520 --> 0:04:06.400 Let's go. I don't think it's gonna be good enough 0:04:06.400 --> 0:04:08.480 for the core. But hey man, let's keep it rolling. 0:04:08.600 --> 0:04:11.240 We both had four and ones in millions this week. 0:04:11.920 --> 0:04:16.080 Jack's nine didn't get there. Jack Mine was Washington. On 0:04:16.120 --> 0:04:18.840 this day of atonement, yom kipor, ladies and gentlemen, may 0:04:18.880 --> 0:04:21.200 I atone for the pick of Washington. That was stupid. 0:04:21.240 --> 0:04:23.000 It's always the fifth pick. Do you ever feel like that? 0:04:23.040 --> 0:04:24.839 Do you ever feel like you get to four, like 0:04:25.000 --> 0:04:27.880 relatively easily, You always got to add one more so 0:04:27.920 --> 0:04:29.279 it makes his contest impossible. 0:04:29.320 --> 0:04:31.920 It really does. It's really amazing. Let's get to it 0:04:32.200 --> 0:04:35.400 because obviously so much talk about the headline, maybe of 0:04:35.440 --> 0:04:40.120 all headlines, being just coaching decision nightmare galore. Let's do 0:04:40.160 --> 0:04:41.839 the Thursday night game. Let's get that out of the way, 0:04:41.920 --> 0:04:45.200 all right. Thursday night we got Lions at Packers. Lions 0:04:45.200 --> 0:04:47.880 at Packers. Again. We go through the game from this 0:04:47.960 --> 0:04:50.200 past week, or the games that apply to the teams 0:04:50.200 --> 0:04:53.000 that are in the matchups this coming week, and we try, 0:04:53.080 --> 0:04:55.680 I don't know the lines I come in with in 0:04:55.720 --> 0:04:59.680 a cocoon, I guess the lines. Kelly will tell us 0:04:59.680 --> 0:05:02.839 the can census actual line, and within that process we 0:05:02.880 --> 0:05:06.640 hope to extract some value first impressions of the upcoming 0:05:06.640 --> 0:05:09.360 week's lines. Obviously still a double header of football tonight, 0:05:10.040 --> 0:05:12.000 Detroit at green Bay. You said, is that? What you said? 0:05:12.640 --> 0:05:15.159 Is that correct? Two in one Lions, two in one 0:05:15.200 --> 0:05:19.159 Packers and NFC Norris Division clashes. Chris Burmer usul to say, 0:05:19.520 --> 0:05:24.240 Detroit beats Atlanta and again some of the easiest handicaps 0:05:24.279 --> 0:05:27.680 thus far in the early season, I feel have been 0:05:28.040 --> 0:05:30.560 the sort of transitive property where I said week two, 0:05:31.080 --> 0:05:34.120 I said, Seattle got crushed by the Rams in Week one, 0:05:34.240 --> 0:05:36.719 and so all of you who thought the Seahawks were 0:05:36.760 --> 0:05:38.240 going to be the fourth best team in the NFC, 0:05:38.760 --> 0:05:41.120 the market seems to have forgotten that. And the Lions 0:05:41.120 --> 0:05:43.880 were big six point favorites against the Seahawks in Week two. 0:05:44.120 --> 0:05:46.200 And the same thing applied here with the Lions, which is, 0:05:46.640 --> 0:05:48.800 how in the world are the Lions only three point 0:05:48.800 --> 0:05:50.400 favorites for the Falcons when a lot of people thought 0:05:50.400 --> 0:05:52.640 they'd be the fourth best team in the NFC after 0:05:52.640 --> 0:05:55.320 they get beat by Seattle. The recency buyas is amazing. Anyway, 0:05:55.360 --> 0:05:59.039 we pick up Detroit Atlanta halftime stats. The score was 0:05:59.080 --> 0:06:02.000 thirteen to three Lions at this point, Desmond Ritter had 0:06:02.000 --> 0:06:04.520 been sacked four times for the Falcons. By the half, 0:06:04.760 --> 0:06:06.800 the Falcons only had six first downs, They were one 0:06:06.800 --> 0:06:08.680 of six on third down. They only had eighty four 0:06:08.760 --> 0:06:12.039 total yards, and by contrast, Jared Goff was fifteen of 0:06:12.080 --> 0:06:15.679 twenty one for one eighty eight with one touchdown, no score. 0:06:15.720 --> 0:06:18.080 It had not been sacked, and yet the Lions were 0:06:18.120 --> 0:06:21.880 only up ten. Despite that statistical mismatch, a third quarter 0:06:21.880 --> 0:06:24.920 to Lions punted young Heyko missed the forty seven yard 0:06:24.960 --> 0:06:27.720 field will try teams traded punts two more times than 0:06:27.760 --> 0:06:29.880 the last play of the third quarter, still a thirteenth 0:06:29.920 --> 0:06:32.120 to three game. Third and fourteen at their own eighteen 0:06:32.680 --> 0:06:35.599 golf was picked by Jesse Bates the third and you figured, oh, okay, 0:06:35.600 --> 0:06:38.400 here it is. Despite the statistical matchup, Atlanta's gonna get 0:06:38.400 --> 0:06:39.880 back in the game. But a four and out for 0:06:40.000 --> 0:06:42.840 Atlanta fourth and fourth of Detroit thirty two failed. Ridder 0:06:42.880 --> 0:06:45.799 incomplete intended for London. Lions then went sixty three yards 0:06:45.839 --> 0:06:47.960 golf in from three out twenty to three Detroit with 0:06:48.000 --> 0:06:50.080 nine to fifty left. They end up winning it twenty 0:06:50.080 --> 0:06:52.479 to six. Kind of a whole football game. Golf finished 0:06:52.480 --> 0:06:55.239 twenty two of thirty three for two forty three, one touchdown, 0:06:55.240 --> 0:06:57.279 one pick. He was not sacked. He did score on 0:06:57.279 --> 0:07:00.000 the ground as well, And I'm on Saint Brown, Amon Ross, 0:07:00.000 --> 0:07:02.679 Saint Brown, pardon me. Nine catches for one hundred two yards. 0:07:02.720 --> 0:07:07.000 Green Bay beats the New Orleans Saints in a game 0:07:07.040 --> 0:07:09.279 where Derek Carr got bounced first of all. New Orleans 0:07:09.320 --> 0:07:12.360 went up to went up seventeen to nothing in this game. 0:07:13.520 --> 0:07:15.680 It was fourth and two at the New Orleans forty 0:07:15.680 --> 0:07:18.440 four in a scoreless game for Green Bay. They went 0:07:18.480 --> 0:07:22.080 for it and failed. It was a halfback play where 0:07:22.080 --> 0:07:25.240 he threw it back to Jordan Love. He threw it 0:07:25.320 --> 0:07:28.840 low Jordan Love split you know, slipped almost to the splits, 0:07:29.000 --> 0:07:31.840 missed a wide open receiver. Saints subsequently went fifty six 0:07:31.880 --> 0:07:34.240 yards car to Jimmy Graham from made out seven to 0:07:34.240 --> 0:07:36.320 nothing New Orleans six forty left in the first quarter. 0:07:36.480 --> 0:07:38.600 Teams traded punts, then ten forty seven left in the 0:07:38.600 --> 0:07:43.240 second quarter. Daniel Wielin punted for Green Bay. Rashid Shaheed 0:07:43.280 --> 0:07:46.360 to the house seventy six yards to peytrt fourteen to nothing. 0:07:46.400 --> 0:07:48.000 New Orleans. As I said, it was seventeen to nothing. 0:07:48.040 --> 0:07:50.600 At halftime and then the Saints first possession Kelly in 0:07:50.640 --> 0:07:54.440 the second half, third and nine at midfield, Derek Carr 0:07:54.480 --> 0:07:58.120 sacked by Rashaan Gary, hurt his shoulder, went to the 0:07:58.120 --> 0:08:03.200 locker room, never returned. Jamis in your guy, that's right. 0:08:03.320 --> 0:08:06.040 Teams sweet five yard out to go, first to go. 0:08:06.240 --> 0:08:08.960 Teams traded punts. Fourth quarter, still down seventeen to nothing. 0:08:08.960 --> 0:08:11.000 We're in the fourth quarter, fourth and two at the 0:08:11.040 --> 0:08:14.440 New Orleans thirteen and Matt Lafleur decides, you know what, 0:08:14.480 --> 0:08:16.640 we need three scores. We're not gonna kick the field goal. 0:08:16.640 --> 0:08:18.840 We'll go for it. First play the fourth quarter, Pack 0:08:18.920 --> 0:08:22.240 go for it Love incomplete intended for Patrick Taylor. Still 0:08:22.440 --> 0:08:25.120 still seventeen to nothing. New Orleans three and out. Pack 0:08:25.240 --> 0:08:27.520 matriculate again. This time they do kick a field goal 0:08:27.760 --> 0:08:31.160 Anders Carlson from thirty eight. It's seventeen to three, still 0:08:31.160 --> 0:08:33.760 down two touchdowns now with eleven minutes left. Didn't kick 0:08:33.800 --> 0:08:35.319 the field goal the first time, decided to kick it 0:08:35.400 --> 0:08:37.720 the second time. After a Saints punt, Green Bay goes 0:08:37.760 --> 0:08:40.280 eighty yards Love in from one on fourth and goal, 0:08:40.400 --> 0:08:43.920 down seventeen to nine, down eight add Matt Lafleur to 0:08:43.960 --> 0:08:46.880 the list of coaches down eight in that situation, who 0:08:46.920 --> 0:08:50.640 decided to go for two analytically driven love to Samory Terrey. 0:08:50.960 --> 0:08:53.960 It is converted seventeen to eleven, six fifty five left, 0:08:54.120 --> 0:08:57.160 New Orleans another three and out Green Bay go's eighty 0:08:57.200 --> 0:08:59.160 more love to Jaden Reid the big one, love to 0:08:59.240 --> 0:09:02.560 Romeo domsrom eight out eighteen to seventeen. Green Bay two 0:09:02.559 --> 0:09:04.880 to fifty six left. New Orleans does get it into 0:09:04.920 --> 0:09:09.160 field goal range behind Jamis, but Blake Groupe misses from 0:09:09.280 --> 0:09:13.559 forty six wide right. Once En left ballgame as Green 0:09:13.600 --> 0:09:17.040 Bay kneels it out outscored New Orleans eighteen to nothing 0:09:17.080 --> 0:09:21.040 in the fourth quarter alone, erasing the seventeen to nothing deficit. 0:09:21.520 --> 0:09:23.280 Jordan Love twenty two to forty four for two to 0:09:23.280 --> 0:09:25.200 fifty nine, one touchdown, one pick. He was sacked once. 0:09:25.320 --> 0:09:27.160 Nine carries for thirty nine yards and a touchdown. He 0:09:27.160 --> 0:09:30.440 was their leading rusher as well. Eleven penalties for ninety 0:09:30.520 --> 0:09:32.920 yards to the Packers. They need to clean that up, 0:09:32.920 --> 0:09:34.679 as they say. Detroit at Green Bay two two and 0:09:34.760 --> 0:09:39.760 one teams vying for the division lead. I said, I 0:09:39.800 --> 0:09:41.120 don't know if I was lazy, but I said A 0:09:41.160 --> 0:09:42.679 pick them what is it? 0:09:42.840 --> 0:09:47.280 This is Detroit one at DraftKings right now? You shop 0:09:47.320 --> 0:09:51.120 around though, this is mainly one and a half two 0:09:51.280 --> 0:09:53.000 in the market for Detroit. 0:09:54.000 --> 0:09:56.719 One and a half two for Detroit. Yeah, I mean, 0:09:56.800 --> 0:09:58.960 I guess I'm not gonna go crazy about that. 0:09:59.440 --> 0:10:01.480 Yeah, No, I guess I know that they. I mean 0:10:01.640 --> 0:10:03.839 Packers walk away with a win yesterday. I think I've 0:10:03.840 --> 0:10:09.200 got more concerns after a win actually about with that team. 0:10:09.679 --> 0:10:11.160 Do you have an NC North ticket on them? 0:10:11.240 --> 0:10:13.840 Too? No? I do not, Okay, no, it might must 0:10:13.840 --> 0:10:16.520 be Matt Brownd then I've got that NNC North ticket 0:10:16.559 --> 0:10:18.960 on Jordan Love is just still hard to figure out. 0:10:19.000 --> 0:10:21.920 You know, I think there's some there's some downfield throws 0:10:21.960 --> 0:10:22.520 he's missing. 0:10:22.559 --> 0:10:22.720 You know. 0:10:22.960 --> 0:10:24.679 It reminds me a little bit of Rock Party, a 0:10:24.720 --> 0:10:27.679 little bit where they're finding some success, but there's just 0:10:27.679 --> 0:10:28.920 some throws he's missing. 0:10:28.960 --> 0:10:29.000 That. 0:10:29.520 --> 0:10:32.200 Yeah, you know, you just see points and opportunities left 0:10:32.200 --> 0:10:34.440 out on the field. So there are definitely some questions 0:10:34.679 --> 0:10:37.320 walking away from that game. And you mentioned the running game. 0:10:38.120 --> 0:10:40.680 You know, it's like a j. Dillon, you know, struggling 0:10:40.720 --> 0:10:42.920 to get things going when everybody has talked about this 0:10:42.960 --> 0:10:45.440 guy like he's gonna be the next big thing up there. 0:10:45.800 --> 0:10:47.839 I think they need that two headed monster running strong. 0:10:47.960 --> 0:10:50.480 Yeah. I just I think there is not an outcome 0:10:50.520 --> 0:10:52.679 that would surprise me in this game. I suppose one 0:10:52.679 --> 0:10:55.600 team just blew the other off the field. Maybe it would, yeah, 0:10:55.640 --> 0:10:57.280 but nothing would surprise me in this game. 0:10:57.720 --> 0:11:00.920 Yeah, I hear you, Yeah it would be past. But 0:11:01.000 --> 0:11:02.920 I don't really have any interest. And I think the 0:11:02.960 --> 0:11:05.080 other thing is just going back to that Detroit Atlanta game. 0:11:05.960 --> 0:11:08.560 I got involved with this with this small yesterday, but 0:11:08.600 --> 0:11:11.200 I think Atlanta, will you talk about a team if 0:11:11.200 --> 0:11:15.280 they fall behind, like, I am more than ready to 0:11:15.400 --> 0:11:17.920 live bet the other side because I just don't trust 0:11:18.040 --> 0:11:19.920 Ritard and get them back in these games. 0:11:19.960 --> 0:11:21.400 Well, we'll get to them when we get to them. 0:11:21.400 --> 0:11:23.760 But one of my things going into this is I'm 0:11:23.800 --> 0:11:27.240 anxious to hear what my guess is juxtaposed against that line, 0:11:27.640 --> 0:11:31.320 because I'm wondering if Atlanta is that team this year 0:11:31.679 --> 0:11:35.679 that constantly gets overrated by the market. Yeah, early on 0:11:36.040 --> 0:11:39.319 it kind of feels that way to me. I defense, 0:11:39.320 --> 0:11:41.720 but what happens when you get behind? That's the Thursday 0:11:41.760 --> 0:11:44.720 night gave no real uh real big thought or no 0:11:44.960 --> 0:11:47.800 real triggering of a bet there. We'll get to Sunday. 0:11:48.160 --> 0:11:50.320 Week four in the National Football League. We review it 0:11:50.320 --> 0:11:52.760 all from week three numbers game Visa the Sports Betting. 0:11:52.520 --> 0:11:58.600 Network Numbers game. 0:12:00.000 --> 0:12:00.480 He scores. 0:12:00.520 --> 0:12:02.599 Betting Network put the Vison experts to work for you 0:12:02.640 --> 0:12:04.640 this football season. To start betting smarter with the Vson 0:12:04.720 --> 0:12:07.920 Pros subscription, sign up now and save forty percent off 0:12:08.000 --> 0:12:11.040 our football season special. When you use promo code an G. 0:12:11.640 --> 0:12:13.680 Get access to everything we do this football season, including 0:12:13.679 --> 0:12:15.520 our daily best bets with a leader board to see 0:12:15.520 --> 0:12:17.760 which Vison expert has the hot hand, betting splits to 0:12:17.800 --> 0:12:19.160 show you where the money and bets are moving for 0:12:19.200 --> 0:12:22.040 every game, plus betting systems, premium analysis and twenty four 0:12:22.040 --> 0:12:25.520 to seven video access. Remember to use promo code an G. 0:12:26.120 --> 0:12:28.160 That's for a numbers game to say forty percent when 0:12:28.160 --> 0:12:31.040 you sign up on a football season special today. Sign 0:12:31.160 --> 0:12:33.920 up today at Vison dot com slash subscribe Gil Alexander, 0:12:34.000 --> 0:12:36.280 Kelly Bidlin guessing lines for week four. We get tweets 0:12:36.320 --> 0:12:38.920 at beating the book from this morning. Charlie d USA 0:12:39.000 --> 0:12:41.920 number one survivor Carnage. He says, yes, indeed it was 0:12:42.280 --> 0:12:44.880 Grayson Rossi. It's a shame nothing happened yesterday in football. 0:12:44.880 --> 0:12:46.880 I don't know how Gil's gonna fill time with his 0:12:46.960 --> 0:12:50.800 recaps during guessing lines today. I think we will figure 0:12:50.840 --> 0:12:54.040 it out. Jesse Welch, I'm sure you're getting a ton 0:12:54.080 --> 0:12:55.920 of this, but it looks like maybe Todd wishneb was 0:12:55.960 --> 0:12:58.960 actually correct about going for two first attempt went down 0:12:59.000 --> 0:13:01.640 to score. Surprise. The debate on the first megapot of 0:13:01.640 --> 0:13:05.200 the year was a fezick and wish nev think eighty 0:13:05.240 --> 0:13:07.280 percent of teams get to go for two when they're 0:13:07.320 --> 0:13:08.959 down fourteen and they score to get it to eight, 0:13:09.280 --> 0:13:11.040 and me and Will Hill were like, there's no chance 0:13:11.040 --> 0:13:15.960 at eighty. But there was more of that going on yesterday. Well, 0:13:16.080 --> 0:13:18.360 I mean green Bay did somebody else do it? I thought? 0:13:18.400 --> 0:13:23.360 I thought, I said Nick Kendhammer, so funny finishing last 0:13:23.400 --> 0:13:25.800 week's A ANDNG and Kelly was worried about the Dolphins 0:13:25.800 --> 0:13:31.280 without Waddle, Well, yeah, nould be worried now. My dot 0:13:31.320 --> 0:13:34.880 is zero two over under two and a half. Sports 0:13:34.880 --> 0:13:39.439 Betting Truth Serum references on Guessing lines with Gil today. 0:13:39.480 --> 0:13:42.400 This also from Charlie Devers, is I think Mike Tomlin 0:13:42.440 --> 0:13:44.040 may be the only coach that practices the end of 0:13:44.040 --> 0:13:48.560 game scenarios. These guru coaches don't rehearse practice these critical moments. 0:13:48.559 --> 0:13:51.400 Feels like a lack of discipline and not understanding practical experience. 0:13:51.520 --> 0:13:54.080 We will get to all of that obviously. Josh McDaniel's 0:13:54.080 --> 0:13:55.720 coming up on the show. Brand it's Dalley coming up 0:13:55.760 --> 0:13:57.760 on the show. I think it gets back to something 0:13:57.920 --> 0:13:59.920 we've talked about many times on the beating of Book Mega, 0:14:00.120 --> 0:14:02.240 perhaps on a numbers game too, which is Kelly. I 0:14:02.280 --> 0:14:05.959 think these coaches are so x's and o's tunnel visioned right. 0:14:06.280 --> 0:14:09.040 They are all week long myopic with their x's and 0:14:09.080 --> 0:14:14.000 o's that I really feel like we watch actually more 0:14:14.040 --> 0:14:17.719 football than they do, more actual football game than they do. 0:14:17.800 --> 0:14:20.320 They're so wrapped up in their lab that when it 0:14:20.320 --> 0:14:23.440 comes to situational analysis, some of them appear. 0:14:23.200 --> 0:14:25.280 To be clueless, which we'll get to. Yeah, on all 0:14:25.320 --> 0:14:28.080 of these really I hear you. I mean, it's one 0:14:28.120 --> 0:14:29.480 of those one of those things I've said for a 0:14:29.520 --> 0:14:32.320 long time, but it's like the it was. It's like 0:14:32.320 --> 0:14:35.280 when online pokery became a big thing where people became 0:14:35.400 --> 0:14:38.760 so much more knowledgeable when it came to the odds 0:14:38.760 --> 0:14:41.800 and hands because you're playing so many hands versus the 0:14:41.880 --> 0:14:44.880 guy who's just playing live in real life. So we 0:14:44.920 --> 0:14:47.360 always talk about, like hire the kid who's twenty five 0:14:47.400 --> 0:14:49.320 that I know has hundreds of hours of bad and 0:14:49.600 --> 0:14:52.720 under his belt because time score situation, he's seen this 0:14:52.720 --> 0:14:53.840 stuff a thousand times. 0:14:53.880 --> 0:14:56.120 Jay and Jay watering Hole. Is Josh McDaniel your new 0:14:56.120 --> 0:14:58.640 Anthony Lynn on decision making guessing he will need multiple 0:14:58.680 --> 0:15:02.160 segments like he needed multip possessions to cover this buffoon 0:15:02.240 --> 0:15:03.920 this morning. We'll get to Josh VI Daniel. We'll get 0:15:03.920 --> 0:15:05.640 it in time. Let's go to Sunday because we want 0:15:05.640 --> 0:15:08.880 to do this chronologically. Try to extract some value here London. 0:15:09.080 --> 0:15:12.640 Maybe Jacksonville will feel more at home there. Gil Falcons 0:15:12.920 --> 0:15:16.720 Verst the Jags in London. I actually, I actually do 0:15:16.800 --> 0:15:19.480 think those are good games for Jacksonville to be in London. 0:15:19.480 --> 0:15:21.560 They played more London games than anybody. They know the 0:15:21.640 --> 0:15:24.800 routine better than anybody. Atlanta, as we just talked about, 0:15:24.880 --> 0:15:26.880 they are two and one. They lost to Green Bay 0:15:27.360 --> 0:15:29.560 Ridder in the end Desmond Ridder twenty one of thirty 0:15:29.560 --> 0:15:31.240 eight for two a one, no touchdowns, no picks. 0:15:31.240 --> 0:15:33.560 He was sacked seven times. 0:15:34.120 --> 0:15:36.320 By the Green Bay Packers, one hundred and eighty three 0:15:36.400 --> 0:15:38.960 total yards for the Falcons offense in that loss, and 0:15:39.000 --> 0:15:43.400 as far as Jacksonville, which again survivor carnage, including one 0:15:43.440 --> 0:15:47.440 of mine and Kelly's only survivor play and I guess 0:15:47.440 --> 0:15:49.320 Matt Brown all three of his is what we are 0:15:49.400 --> 0:15:53.200 led to believe. Oh yeah, yeah, I forgot forgot them. 0:15:53.240 --> 0:15:54.520 Yeah, that's he does that. 0:15:55.600 --> 0:15:59.120 Jacksonville loses to Houston, I believe for the tenth time 0:15:59.160 --> 0:16:03.280 in eleven to the Houston Texans. That is there kryptonite. 0:16:03.880 --> 0:16:07.160 After a McManus missed forty eight yard field goal, Texans 0:16:07.160 --> 0:16:09.920 win sixty two yards, most on a Stroud to Tank 0:16:10.000 --> 0:16:12.560 Dell forty six yard game. Two plays later, Damian Pierce 0:16:12.760 --> 0:16:15.240 in from one seven to nothing, Houston seven thirty five left. 0:16:15.280 --> 0:16:17.440 First quarter. All right, no big deal, one score After 0:16:17.520 --> 0:16:20.640 trade Uponts, McManus has a fifty one yard attempt blocked. 0:16:20.800 --> 0:16:23.840 Houston then goes fifty nine yards Stroud to Brevan Johnson 0:16:23.840 --> 0:16:26.960 from four out, fourteen to nothing, Houston seven to twenty 0:16:26.960 --> 0:16:29.960 seven left in the second quarter, and already survivor panic 0:16:30.080 --> 0:16:32.960 sets in for those with Jacksonville entries. After a trade 0:16:32.960 --> 0:16:35.240 of months Jacksonville third and ten at the Houston forty 0:16:35.240 --> 0:16:38.200 five one thirteen laft. Second quarter, Lawrence to Jamal Agnew 0:16:38.200 --> 0:16:41.080 passed the sticks but hit by Eric Murray. He fumbles, 0:16:41.120 --> 0:16:44.120 Blake Cashman recovers, Texans get a twenty eight yard fairburn 0:16:44.160 --> 0:16:46.960 Field goal came he fairburn field goal out of it 0:16:47.080 --> 0:16:50.960 seventeen to nothing Houston at the half. Halftime stats Stroud 0:16:51.040 --> 0:16:54.080 fourteen of twenty one for one sixty two, seven point 0:16:54.080 --> 0:16:56.600 seven yards per attempt, Lawrence ten of sixteen for eighty nine. 0:16:57.200 --> 0:16:59.040 Jags were one of six on third downs. Okay, Jags 0:16:59.080 --> 0:17:01.240 take the opening drive of the quarter sixty seven yards, 0:17:01.560 --> 0:17:04.040 helped by a Texans PI bigsby in from one seventeen 0:17:04.080 --> 0:17:06.480 to seven Houston, and if you have the Jacksonville survivor entry, 0:17:06.480 --> 0:17:10.200 you're like, okay, is a good start. Then then after 0:17:10.200 --> 0:17:12.600 a Houston three and ount McMahon's thirty three yard field 0:17:12.600 --> 0:17:14.840 well cuts the lead to Houston seventeen to ten, four 0:17:14.960 --> 0:17:17.280 thirty six left third quarter, if you've got the Jacksonville 0:17:17.280 --> 0:17:18.080 survivor entries. 0:17:17.920 --> 0:17:19.960 You're like, Okay, still in a gill, No problem, this 0:17:20.040 --> 0:17:22.639 is happening, especially since what percentage Ben and I were 0:17:22.680 --> 0:17:25.240 talking about this quick yesterday. What percentage of people like 0:17:25.359 --> 0:17:28.240 me were on the Jags and also on the Giants 0:17:28.240 --> 0:17:30.320 the week before? So you were in no sweat town 0:17:30.640 --> 0:17:32.480 right now, No no problem. 0:17:32.520 --> 0:17:35.760 After that week before, Jags have all the momentum ensuing 0:17:35.840 --> 0:17:40.840 kickoff mortar kick, full back Andrew Beck fumbles it, picks 0:17:40.880 --> 0:17:44.399 it up off the turf, goes fifty five yards to 0:17:44.480 --> 0:17:48.120 the hiszy twenty four to ten Houston for eighteen left 0:17:48.119 --> 0:17:50.200 third quarter and at that point you might have said 0:17:50.240 --> 0:17:52.640 to yourself, maybe it's not gonna happen at all. 0:17:53.000 --> 0:17:55.240 Things I shouldn't say on air. But were you not 0:17:55.359 --> 0:17:57.960 watching that return and thinking to yourself, I could. 0:17:57.800 --> 0:18:02.000 Have got that guy reminded who was the new England 0:18:02.119 --> 0:18:05.800 lineman who almost took it to the house the one time? Man? Yeah, 0:18:05.840 --> 0:18:07.359 I remember, and I don't remember who it was. 0:18:07.480 --> 0:18:09.520 I don't remember, but I was like, he started breaking 0:18:09.560 --> 0:18:11.280 out to the edge and I'm like, okay, well someonlet's 0:18:11.320 --> 0:18:13.480 get it, get him, And You're like, where is everybody? 0:18:13.560 --> 0:18:16.680 This This led Wishnev late last night into a big 0:18:16.800 --> 0:18:20.119 rabbit hole of how many fullbacks have ever returned a 0:18:20.200 --> 0:18:21.320 punt for a touchdown? 0:18:21.920 --> 0:18:24.840 I believe it was the He's the heaviest man to 0:18:24.880 --> 0:18:26.920 ever return a kick for a touchdown. 0:18:26.920 --> 0:18:28.960 I believe is what I heard, Yes, Dar unbelievable. Twenty 0:18:28.960 --> 0:18:31.639 four to ten Houston, four eighteen left third quarter, fifth play, 0:18:31.720 --> 0:18:33.840 following drive Jags third and seven at the Houston thirty 0:18:33.880 --> 0:18:37.440 eight Lawrence picked by Blake Cashman two twenty left third quarter. 0:18:37.600 --> 0:18:40.240 Texans up twenty seven to ten when the Jags get 0:18:40.240 --> 0:18:42.359 it within ten again, twenty seven to seventeen on a 0:18:42.400 --> 0:18:44.879 Lawrence to Kirk twenty six yard touchdown pass with ten 0:18:45.000 --> 0:18:47.919 forty left, But then Houston put the nail on the coffin. 0:18:47.960 --> 0:18:51.480 They go seventy five yards in three plays. Stroud to 0:18:51.600 --> 0:18:54.680 Christian Kirk for sixty eight thirty four to seventeen with 0:18:54.720 --> 0:18:57.280 eight fifty nine left forget about it. Texans would end 0:18:57.359 --> 0:18:59.920 up winning thirty seven to seventeen. Survivor Kart and I 0:19:00.000 --> 0:19:06.080 ash once again. Over two thousand entries in circa gone 0:19:06.400 --> 0:19:09.320 Lawrence twenty seven of forty for two seventy nine, one touchdown, 0:19:09.359 --> 0:19:12.359 one pick was not sacked, minus two and turnovers that 0:19:12.440 --> 0:19:16.480 led to a plus six net Texans points. This is London, 0:19:16.800 --> 0:19:20.639 It's Atlanta at Jacksonville. I will say, I put Jacksonville 0:19:20.680 --> 0:19:22.640 in no man's landa I put them in minus five 0:19:22.680 --> 0:19:23.160 and a half. 0:19:24.200 --> 0:19:28.600 Oh wow, Jags three basically painted across the board. 0:19:28.760 --> 0:19:31.119 Okay, so here's my reaction to that, exactly what I 0:19:31.160 --> 0:19:34.280 was saying out before the break. I feel like Atlanta 0:19:34.400 --> 0:19:37.359 might end up being the chronically overvalued team in the 0:19:37.359 --> 0:19:40.719 market every week because I don't know what it is 0:19:40.760 --> 0:19:45.120 about this team that what is it about Desmond Ritter 0:19:45.200 --> 0:19:48.440 in this offense that leads anyone to believe they should 0:19:48.480 --> 0:19:52.080 be this tightly lined at Detroit And then okay, you 0:19:52.119 --> 0:19:54.359 can say, oh, well it's London, it's not Jacksonville. I 0:19:54.359 --> 0:19:58.560 actually think it's a bigger advantage to Jacksonville this travel 0:19:58.680 --> 0:20:01.480 because they're so familiar with it as a franchise. They 0:20:01.520 --> 0:20:04.480 have this streamlined. So I think three is way low. 0:20:04.600 --> 0:20:05.760 I like the Jaguars here. 0:20:05.840 --> 0:20:07.560 I think, without a doubt, you got to get at 0:20:07.560 --> 0:20:09.920 this point like you're you're at this point. 0:20:09.960 --> 0:20:11.720 They've done made this trip so many times. 0:20:11.720 --> 0:20:13.840 I agree with you. I think you've got a factor 0:20:13.920 --> 0:20:16.440 in a half point or a point home field advantage 0:20:16.440 --> 0:20:18.640 for the Jags in a situation we do. Because I'm 0:20:18.640 --> 0:20:22.840 with you, I don't know that I can get back 0:20:22.880 --> 0:20:26.920 to the Jags this week, not not only after last week, 0:20:26.920 --> 0:20:28.480 but their game against Kansas City too. 0:20:28.560 --> 0:20:31.200 Right, Like they are like they are? 0:20:30.960 --> 0:20:34.359 They have problems in all three phases. The offense hasn't 0:20:34.359 --> 0:20:36.320 been able to put it all together. They're relying on 0:20:36.359 --> 0:20:39.000 Calvin Ridley way too much. He might be banged up 0:20:39.000 --> 0:20:42.080 heading into this game. The defense, I mean, how many 0:20:42.119 --> 0:20:45.200 times yesterday there was wide open Texans receivers just why 0:20:45.440 --> 0:20:48.600 you know, running in wide open gaps catching passes. Nobody 0:20:48.640 --> 0:20:50.879 even there. And then the special teams was a freaking 0:20:50.920 --> 0:20:53.800 disaster yesterday. You're talking what a missed field goal? A 0:20:53.880 --> 0:20:56.680 blocked field goal? They'll return kick for a touchdown? 0:20:56.800 --> 0:20:58.000 Yea? Like they are. 0:20:58.160 --> 0:21:00.560 They have problems in all three phases right now? 0:21:00.600 --> 0:21:05.280 And how are you feeling about your Jaguars Division bet? 0:21:06.400 --> 0:21:07.600 Similar to this game? Right? 0:21:07.680 --> 0:21:09.560 If I was more confident in this team, I'd be 0:21:09.600 --> 0:21:11.840 double dipping right now. I'd be laying the three against 0:21:11.840 --> 0:21:14.120 Atlanta because I'm not that high on Atlanta, and I'd 0:21:14.119 --> 0:21:16.480 be getting more involved with a division ticket. 0:21:16.520 --> 0:21:18.240 I'm not super concerned. 0:21:17.880 --> 0:21:20.440 About it yet, Gill, but man, this team's got to 0:21:20.440 --> 0:21:23.320 put some things together. I'll lay the three, You're like three. Okay, 0:21:23.440 --> 0:21:26.040 I like this. I might get there too. It's because 0:21:26.080 --> 0:21:27.880 I'm not very high in Atlanta. And again I think, 0:21:27.880 --> 0:21:30.720 if you can get ten points up on this team, 0:21:31.560 --> 0:21:34.119 it's done. It's over, because I don't believe in Desmond 0:21:34.160 --> 0:21:35.840 Rere leading back to this team from a come from 0:21:35.840 --> 0:21:36.680 behind victory at all. 0:21:38.080 --> 0:21:41.239 They killed Jacksonville killed my teaser of the week. I mean, 0:21:41.280 --> 0:21:44.280 I was four and one in millions to survivor entries 0:21:44.400 --> 0:21:47.399 betting Great Great Sunday in the NFL betting, but the 0:21:47.440 --> 0:21:52.680 teaser got crushed again. Visit Jags couldn't even win. So yeah, 0:21:52.720 --> 0:21:54.320 I mean, I mean it's not like I think they're 0:21:54.320 --> 0:21:56.239 the greatest team in the world, but I just if 0:21:56.240 --> 0:21:58.160 I'm only laying three, I'll take them here. Yeah, yeah, 0:21:58.640 --> 0:21:59.480 I mean, I'm with you. 0:21:59.520 --> 0:22:01.320 When I first saw this line, I was like, man, 0:22:01.359 --> 0:22:03.680 Lily three, Like I thought it was gonna be kind 0:22:03.680 --> 0:22:06.080 of no man's land too, like four, something like that. 0:22:06.320 --> 0:22:08.480 I might get there, but man, this team's got they. 0:22:08.400 --> 0:22:11.440 Got some work to do. Man, for sure, we'll come back. 0:22:11.480 --> 0:22:13.040 We got a lot of games to get to obviously, 0:22:13.040 --> 0:22:15.239 we'll get in catch up mode here. I also want 0:22:15.280 --> 0:22:18.600 to get to the notion of the last undefeated team 0:22:18.640 --> 0:22:22.600 and the last winless team. When my Panthers fifteen to 0:22:22.600 --> 0:22:25.320 one tickets still alive, very pumped about that. Come on, 0:22:25.440 --> 0:22:28.320 Panthers keep losing, and then I don't want to get 0:22:28.359 --> 0:22:31.160 crazy about someone losing their job, but my EVERFLUS ticket, 0:22:31.160 --> 0:22:34.000 which is almost sixteen to one, also, I mean, come on, 0:22:34.600 --> 0:22:36.880 can we can we just end it there in Chicago. 0:22:37.280 --> 0:22:39.000 I won't rejoice because I don't like a guy losing 0:22:39.040 --> 0:22:42.119 his job, but that is a bet as well. We 0:22:42.200 --> 0:22:44.920 shall see more guessing lines week four, right here on 0:22:44.960 --> 0:22:47.600 a numbers game at Visa these Sports Betting Network coming back. 0:22:51.920 --> 0:22:54.920 It's skill, Alexander, It's Kelly Bidlin live at Bark, Canada 0:22:55.000 --> 0:22:59.640 at the d doing some guessing lines. Fezick and I 0:23:00.119 --> 0:23:04.359 are having a childish, childish text exchange. Would you like 0:23:04.440 --> 0:23:06.400 to hear how it goes? It goes like this, he says, 0:23:06.640 --> 0:23:10.920 Fessik goes no way, we can make this line even 0:23:10.960 --> 0:23:14.000 three I predicted, goes down to two and a half, 0:23:14.320 --> 0:23:17.320 even giving Jacksonville one for home field. And then you 0:23:17.440 --> 0:23:19.399 tell me, oh, a two and a half actually popped 0:23:19.400 --> 0:23:21.280 somewhere right, We've already done this game. You tell me 0:23:21.320 --> 0:23:23.280 a two and a half actually popped. I saw one 0:23:23.320 --> 0:23:26.560 this morning, okay, but it popped. So I said to Fesek, 0:23:26.640 --> 0:23:29.159 I go past post. You've already seen a two and 0:23:29.200 --> 0:23:32.520 a half pop. He goes, no, forty dollars mandatory fine 0:23:32.560 --> 0:23:34.800 for a false accusation past post. And then I said 0:23:34.840 --> 0:23:37.240 to him, we saw a two and a half pop. 0:23:37.320 --> 0:23:40.359 Kelly told me eighty dollars fine for accusing someone falsely. 0:23:40.359 --> 0:23:44.639 For accusing someone falsely. Good. So you guys have find 0:23:44.640 --> 0:23:49.840 each children absolute children. We get tweets at beating the book. 0:23:50.240 --> 0:23:52.680 This is from Brandon Webb. I would imagine Green Bay 0:23:52.680 --> 0:23:54.399 gets Aaron Jones back this week. Only reason I keep 0:23:54.440 --> 0:23:56.359 track is because I traded Cooper Cup for him the 0:23:56.440 --> 0:23:59.720 day before his setback. In quotes Ben Handorf, Gilly, what 0:23:59.760 --> 0:24:01.919 are you think about the upcoming slate for survivor? In 0:24:02.000 --> 0:24:03.960 a pool with some work friends north of the border, 0:24:03.960 --> 0:24:06.479 and there's now only forty percent of the twelve hundred remaining. Oh, 0:24:06.480 --> 0:24:10.240 that's actually a pretty stout survivor group, if only for 0:24:10.480 --> 0:24:13.240 if forty percent of remaining, Because circa's down to almost 0:24:13.240 --> 0:24:15.480 twenty five percent. We lost four of eight entries this 0:24:15.480 --> 0:24:18.000 week with Dallas and Jacksonville seriously interested in what you 0:24:18.160 --> 0:24:20.359 think hashtag tough week. Well, I will let you know 0:24:20.440 --> 0:24:23.000 by the end of the show when I have seen 0:24:23.000 --> 0:24:25.200 all the options here and can really digest him. Chris 0:24:25.240 --> 0:24:27.960 Sells fill many preseason talked of having one survivor pick 0:24:28.080 --> 0:24:30.439 just for against Arizona. I think the Bears may be 0:24:30.520 --> 0:24:33.720 the ticket. I can't imagine them winning a game. You're right, 0:24:33.760 --> 0:24:37.800 they may be the new Arizona, because honestly, Arizona could 0:24:37.840 --> 0:24:41.240 be and maybe should be three and zero. That's how 0:24:41.240 --> 0:24:44.720 amazing that is. And then Wegg's pool he said eighty 0:24:44.760 --> 0:24:46.320 five yards. You said fifty five? 0:24:46.359 --> 0:24:47.080 I mean get him? 0:24:47.119 --> 0:24:49.280 Oh yeah, I'm sorry. I mean I must have mistyped 0:24:49.280 --> 0:24:53.920 that into my notes. Eighty five yard punt return for 0:24:54.640 --> 0:25:00.240 the Houston Texans was incredible, incredible, It's just and that 0:25:00.960 --> 0:25:06.119 was the momentum killer for the Jacksonville Jaguars went again. 0:25:06.280 --> 0:25:09.359 Fullback Andrew Beck went eighty five yards to the house 0:25:09.560 --> 0:25:12.040 to win that. All right, let us continue. 0:25:11.640 --> 0:25:16.639 Sunday Sunday, first early window game, Dolphins at Bills. 0:25:16.800 --> 0:25:20.560 Okay, game of now we get to talk the three 0:25:20.600 --> 0:25:24.800 and oh Dolphins at the two and one Bills. The Dolphins. 0:25:24.840 --> 0:25:28.000 As we said, no Jalen Waddell. Third play from scrimmage 0:25:28.359 --> 0:25:33.399 to Tyreek for fifty four yards vance. Joseph and the 0:25:33.400 --> 0:25:37.920 Broncos had Robbie Chosen formerly Robby Anderson in double coverage 0:25:37.920 --> 0:25:40.560 on that play, fifty four yards of the house. Seven 0:25:40.560 --> 0:25:44.159 to nothing Miami one minute and twenty three seconds into 0:25:44.160 --> 0:25:47.680 this ballgame. The play gave Hill twenty nineteen receiving yards 0:25:47.680 --> 0:25:50.959 in a Dolphins uniform. Per ESPN's Jeff Darlington, That's the 0:25:51.000 --> 0:25:53.439 most receiving yards in NFL history by a player in 0:25:53.480 --> 0:25:55.879 his first twenty games with a new team, and that 0:25:56.040 --> 0:25:58.600 was his first catch of the game. Seven and nothing, 0:25:58.720 --> 0:26:01.600 Denver three and out. Miami goes eighty one yards devon 0:26:01.800 --> 0:26:04.520 a chain third round pickout of Texas A and m 0:26:05.000 --> 0:26:07.800 in from eight fourteen to nothing, Miami six thirty one 0:26:07.880 --> 0:26:10.399 left in the first quarter. Then after a Denver seventy 0:26:10.400 --> 0:26:12.840 five yard touchdown drive culminating and a Wilson to Sutton 0:26:13.080 --> 0:26:15.960 Courland Sutton twelve yard touchdown pass, Miami goes seventy five 0:26:16.000 --> 0:26:18.840 again to a shovel pass to eight Jane twenty one 0:26:18.880 --> 0:26:22.320 to seven Miami ten sixteen left. Second quarter, twenty one 0:26:22.359 --> 0:26:24.520 to ten game. Now Miami has fourth and won at 0:26:24.520 --> 0:26:27.080 their own thirty four four point fifty two left. 0:26:26.840 --> 0:26:27.680 In the second quarter. 0:26:27.920 --> 0:26:30.560 They say, hell with it, We're going for it up 0:26:30.560 --> 0:26:33.840 eleven in our own territory. Alec Ingold stuffed for no game, 0:26:34.080 --> 0:26:37.520 Denver bawl down eleven, and you're like, okay, Broncos, they 0:26:37.560 --> 0:26:40.000 could get back in this game, right, Maybe not in 0:26:40.040 --> 0:26:41.879 that voice. I don't know why I put on that voice, 0:26:41.920 --> 0:26:46.159 but maybe that's what you think. That's you think, but 0:26:46.200 --> 0:26:49.320 it wouldn't hurt Miami. Broncos go back seven yards three 0:26:49.359 --> 0:26:52.280 and now Dolphins Dick get then eighty six yards. Most 0:26:52.280 --> 0:26:55.240 are from twenty out twenty eight to ten, Miami one 0:26:55.359 --> 0:26:57.960 forty eight left in the second quarter, and at that 0:26:58.000 --> 0:27:00.359 point you're like, oh wow, that that's the shit in 0:27:00.400 --> 0:27:03.720 the game. From being down eleven, squandering it in plus 0:27:03.840 --> 0:27:06.399 territory and now you're down eighteen set. But then it 0:27:06.440 --> 0:27:08.560 goes from bad to comical, and this is where the 0:27:08.560 --> 0:27:12.200 comedy begins. Down twenty eight to ten. Second play ensuing drive, 0:27:12.400 --> 0:27:15.520 Wilson a sudden hit by Javon Holland fumbles, Andre van 0:27:15.600 --> 0:27:19.000 Ginkel recovers, returns at twenty nine yards. One play later, 0:27:19.160 --> 0:27:22.440 mostered in from three. It's Miami thirty five to ten. 0:27:22.520 --> 0:27:26.240 It's thirty five to thirteen and a half. Wow Tua. 0:27:26.560 --> 0:27:31.240 Halftime stats Kelly sixteen of sixteen for two oh six. 0:27:31.440 --> 0:27:34.400 That's pretty good. Twelve point nine yards per attempt, two touchdowns, 0:27:34.400 --> 0:27:36.639 no picks. He wasn't sacked. Tyreek was six for one 0:27:36.760 --> 0:27:38.679 twenty two at a touch At that point, Miami had 0:27:38.720 --> 0:27:41.880 three hundred and forty four total yards of offense at 0:27:41.920 --> 0:27:46.560 the half. At the half, after the Broncos punted to 0:27:46.560 --> 0:27:49.200 start the third quarter, Dolphins matriculate fourth and goal with 0:27:49.240 --> 0:27:52.520 the denver one. We're up twenty two. Field goal, field goal, 0:27:52.560 --> 0:27:55.040 shmeel goal, as my mother used to say, they go 0:27:55.119 --> 0:27:57.800 for it. Most are in from one, forty two to thirteen. 0:27:58.000 --> 0:28:02.200 Seven forty eight left third quarter, another Sutton fumble, Dolphins 0:28:02.240 --> 0:28:07.280 go seventy seven more yards to a demostered mistackle, nineteen 0:28:07.359 --> 0:28:10.280 yards of the house. Forty nine to thirteen Miami. We're 0:28:10.320 --> 0:28:13.960 still in the third quarter. First play, next drive, Wilson 0:28:14.000 --> 0:28:17.280 picked by Emmanuel Lagma. Two plays later, two and a 0:28:17.359 --> 0:28:21.600 eight Chane from ten out fifty six to thirteen. Five 0:28:21.760 --> 0:28:24.560 seconds into the fourth quarter, we have a whole quarter 0:28:24.600 --> 0:28:27.520 to play. It's fifty six to thirteen. Then Mike go 0:28:27.640 --> 0:28:30.439 Wyatt it comes in to replace the two and he 0:28:30.520 --> 0:28:35.000 goes to Robbie chosen the chosen one. Don't even try 0:28:35.040 --> 0:28:39.400 to lift that from us. Robbie sixty eight yards, Marvin 0:28:39.440 --> 0:28:42.360 Mims Junior ninety nine yard kickoff return right after that, 0:28:42.720 --> 0:28:45.400 and then a Devon ah Chine sixty seven yard touchdown 0:28:45.440 --> 0:28:49.080 rud would close out the scoring. Is this real? Seventy 0:28:49.160 --> 0:28:52.680 to twenty Dolphins. By the way, there were eight minutes 0:28:52.760 --> 0:28:54.720 left in the game when it got to seventy to twenty, 0:28:54.760 --> 0:28:57.080 Like it could have been worse. Oh yeah, yeah. 0:28:57.280 --> 0:29:01.120 There were plenty of records that Dolphins set yesterday at Plony. 0:29:01.200 --> 0:29:03.680 Records they left on the table the most points by 0:29:03.720 --> 0:29:06.320 one team in an NFL game since nineteen hundred and 0:29:06.360 --> 0:29:09.600 sixty and six, the fourth team at NFL history to 0:29:09.600 --> 0:29:12.680 score ten touchdowns in a game that includes playoff games. 0:29:13.480 --> 0:29:17.160 Tua ends up twenty three of twenty six for three 0:29:17.320 --> 0:29:19.920 h nine four touchdowns, no Picksey was not sacked. Eight 0:29:20.000 --> 0:29:22.840 Chane eighteen carries for two hundred three yards. It's like 0:29:22.880 --> 0:29:27.320 a Timmy Smith moment. Two touchdowns, four catches, for thirty 0:29:27.360 --> 0:29:30.240 and two more touchdowns. Most are thirteen for eighty two 0:29:30.240 --> 0:29:33.920 and three touchdowns, seven catches for sixty yards and another touchdown. 0:29:34.160 --> 0:29:37.160 Let me put those together. Eight Chane and Moster together 0:29:37.640 --> 0:29:43.479 eight touchdowns, three hundred and seventy five yards Tyreek Hohom 0:29:43.560 --> 0:29:45.400 nine catches one to fifty seven in a touchdown, the 0:29:45.440 --> 0:29:49.280 seven hundred and twenty six total yards seven hundred and twenty six. 0:29:49.760 --> 0:29:51.400 As that came up on the screen, I said to myself, 0:29:51.400 --> 0:29:53.320 I've been doing guessing lines for over a decade. I've 0:29:53.320 --> 0:29:55.480 never seen that number before. Do you know why, Kelly, 0:29:55.560 --> 0:29:59.480 Because it's the second most in NFL history nineteen fifty 0:29:59.520 --> 0:30:01.720 one ran who could forget it when they had seven 0:30:01.680 --> 0:30:04.880 to thirty five you remember that? Oh yeah, yep, yeah, 0:30:04.960 --> 0:30:10.320 seventy one plays plus three in turnovers. My god, and. 0:30:10.320 --> 0:30:13.120 What the fourth seventy plus point game in NFL history. 0:30:13.120 --> 0:30:15.760 But all the other three were in the forties, so 0:30:15.960 --> 0:30:17.440 you know you gotta go back aways for that. 0:30:17.640 --> 0:30:20.560 Who are they playing it? Oh? At Buffalo? Buffalo is 0:30:20.560 --> 0:30:24.640 really not much to say. They just destroyed Washington. It 0:30:24.720 --> 0:30:27.440 was ten to nothing, Skins had a third and goal 0:30:27.480 --> 0:30:29.520 at the one. They went into shotgun We always love 0:30:29.600 --> 0:30:32.240 that Robinson stuffed for a loss of one fourth and 0:30:32.280 --> 0:30:34.600 goal with the two incomplete pass. This was what eleven 0:30:34.720 --> 0:30:36.840 forty two left in the second quarter. The Bills had 0:30:36.840 --> 0:30:38.760 had a couple more Tyler bass field goals before the 0:30:38.800 --> 0:30:41.040 end of the half, fifty four and thirty two yarders. 0:30:41.280 --> 0:30:44.320 They go up sixteen to nothing, and the last one 0:30:44.320 --> 0:30:47.600 was set up by a howl pick by Micah Hyde 0:30:47.640 --> 0:30:49.720 and Skin's territory. With just over a minute remaining in 0:30:49.760 --> 0:30:52.600 the half. Third quarter, Bills are up sixteen to nothing. 0:30:53.000 --> 0:30:55.440 Howel is picked by Tradavius White in the end zone. 0:30:55.800 --> 0:30:59.160 Then after Allen was picked deep by Kendall Fuller, Washington punts. 0:30:59.200 --> 0:31:00.840 Bills failed to convert on fourth and one at the 0:31:00.880 --> 0:31:04.280 Washington thirty seven with fourteen eighteen left in the fourth quarter, 0:31:04.440 --> 0:31:06.200 but the first play of the next drive, Howel to 0:31:06.280 --> 0:31:09.000 Antonio Gibson. Then he gets hit by Aaron Johnson. He fumbles, 0:31:09.160 --> 0:31:12.200 recovered by Terol Bernard, leads to another Buffalo touchdown drive. 0:31:12.240 --> 0:31:14.560 It's twenty three to zero at that point, and then 0:31:15.120 --> 0:31:17.640 the Coudi Gras third play next drive, Howell tried to 0:31:17.720 --> 0:31:21.040 loop the ball while sprinting to his left over Ajpanessa 0:31:21.120 --> 0:31:25.840 not so much picked picked six thirty to nothing competitive 0:31:25.880 --> 0:31:27.959 portion of the game. Well over, it ends up thirty 0:31:28.040 --> 0:31:30.840 seven to three, and the only reason Washington got a 0:31:30.880 --> 0:31:33.600 three is because they had a audacity to lie to 0:31:33.880 --> 0:31:36.440 line Joey sly Up Joey sly Up for a fifty 0:31:36.480 --> 0:31:39.000 one yard er with under a minute to play, So 0:31:39.280 --> 0:31:41.479 that's the only reason they got points. The Bills d 0:31:41.600 --> 0:31:45.600 had nine sacks and five takeaways. Allen twenty thirty two 0:31:45.640 --> 0:31:49.000 for two eighteen, three carries for forty six yards and 0:31:49.000 --> 0:31:52.240 a touchdown, digs eight for one eleven. They held Washington 0:31:52.240 --> 0:31:54.000 to one of nine on third down, they outgained him 0:31:54.000 --> 0:31:56.280 three eighty six to two thirty and again plus four 0:31:56.320 --> 0:32:01.480 in turnovers that led directly to a net plus seventeen points. 0:32:01.520 --> 0:32:02.440 Gotta be the game of the week. 0:32:02.440 --> 0:32:06.560 I would imagine AFC East showdown at Buffalo. I still 0:32:06.600 --> 0:32:08.120 made it Buffalo minus three. 0:32:09.160 --> 0:32:13.280 This is Buffalo minus two and a half, but it 0:32:13.400 --> 0:32:15.560 is heading that three way. 0:32:15.720 --> 0:32:16.760 I would figure it'd be three. 0:32:16.800 --> 0:32:19.720 It is pretty much two and a half juiced everywhere 0:32:20.200 --> 0:32:21.960 one fifteen one twenty on the two. 0:32:21.920 --> 0:32:25.360 And a half. Okay, so far like Jacksonville best any 0:32:25.400 --> 0:32:29.760 any any thoughts on that one of this game Dolphins Bills, Well, 0:32:30.160 --> 0:32:33.880 you know, Sean Payton memo to Sean Payton, you owen 0:32:34.000 --> 0:32:38.680 three post scab arrogant guy that you are, gosh yeah, 0:32:38.880 --> 0:32:40.800 and don't want to say anything else about Nathaniel Hackett. 0:32:40.800 --> 0:32:42.680 You want to say anything else about Russell Wilson, anything 0:32:42.680 --> 0:32:43.400 else you gotta. 0:32:43.160 --> 0:32:45.120 Say talks to board trash for the rest of the league. 0:32:45.440 --> 0:32:49.200 Maybe that maybe he should have actually tried to milk 0:32:49.320 --> 0:32:54.320 clock in that game. You know, maybe I'm just thinking, bruh. 0:32:54.760 --> 0:32:56.400 I don't think I'm gonna be I and Fin's money 0:32:56.440 --> 0:32:58.000 line in this game. I mean, I think that's the 0:32:58.000 --> 0:33:00.480 Bills hole. I think that's the Bill's whole like game, like, 0:33:00.560 --> 0:33:03.040 let's just keep the ball away from the Dolphins, let's 0:33:03.080 --> 0:33:06.160 climb this out. I think three is just sort of 0:33:06.200 --> 0:33:08.840 low as like factory setting for this kind of game. 0:33:09.200 --> 0:33:11.120 I hear you. Yeah, We'll come back a whole bunch 0:33:11.200 --> 0:33:13.800 more to get to Week four guessing lines numbers game 0:33:13.880 --> 0:33:20.000 Vsent the Sports Betting Network. We get tweets at beating 0:33:20.120 --> 0:33:23.400 the book. This is from Trust the Glove. You'll rejoice 0:33:23.440 --> 0:33:26.080 a little bit if Chicago fires. It's coach first just 0:33:26.120 --> 0:33:28.520 don't act happy. I think that's right. Eric b Hey, 0:33:28.560 --> 0:33:32.440 gil broncos over Bears for Survivor Week four that's coming up. 0:33:33.400 --> 0:33:37.000 This is from Blue hen Bill. Never trusting Doug Peterson, Yes, 0:33:37.040 --> 0:33:39.480 he's a dope. In my infinite wisdom, I steered away 0:33:39.520 --> 0:33:43.480 from the Jags save Dallas and Casey then played then 0:33:43.960 --> 0:33:47.560 then played the Ravens. Oh and Casey then played the 0:33:47.680 --> 0:33:50.120 Ravens in my suicide pool. I was brilliant for about 0:33:50.120 --> 0:33:53.600 six minutes, then back to normal. Lol. Sorry about that. 0:33:54.120 --> 0:33:56.360 And Kevin Ryan Gil, I can't decide which I hate 0:33:56.360 --> 0:33:58.320 more of my decision to use Jacksonville and all three 0:33:58.320 --> 0:34:03.080 of my Survivor picks or the new Jason Bateman cellular commercial. Well, 0:34:03.080 --> 0:34:04.480 you know what the thing is with Jason Bateman is 0:34:04.480 --> 0:34:06.240 he's the same guy and everything. He's the same guy 0:34:06.240 --> 0:34:08.960 and everything, and he's not that he's not funny, yeah, everything. 0:34:08.960 --> 0:34:11.480 He only plays that guy in like the funny movies, 0:34:11.520 --> 0:34:14.320 who's like the heel or like the annoying guy. But 0:34:14.640 --> 0:34:16.960 Ozark Silver Spoons, he's the same guy. 0:34:17.000 --> 0:34:18.440 He's the same guy. I don't care what it is. 0:34:18.560 --> 0:34:20.080 I don't care if it's a comedy or if it's 0:34:20.080 --> 0:34:23.480 a dead serious drama. He's the same guy think about 0:34:23.520 --> 0:34:26.279 think about horrible Bostons. He's just the guy who's agitated 0:34:26.960 --> 0:34:27.560 the entire. 0:34:28.320 --> 0:34:31.960 He's that way in that commercial too. Remaining lone remaining 0:34:32.000 --> 0:34:35.279 unbeaten San Francisco and Miami both three and oh and 0:34:35.320 --> 0:34:37.759 then tonight, if there is a winner, obviously, even there's 0:34:37.760 --> 0:34:40.399 a tie, they'll be unbeaten. Philly and Tampa Bay both 0:34:40.400 --> 0:34:44.160 two and oh uh. And then the remaining winless teams 0:34:44.160 --> 0:34:46.759 Denver oh and three, Minnesota oh and three, Chicago and three, 0:34:47.200 --> 0:34:51.000 Cincinnati and Carol excuse me, Carolina, oh and three my team, 0:34:51.040 --> 0:34:53.160 my bet, and then Cincinnati is still oh and two 0:34:53.360 --> 0:34:54.600 ready to go? By the way, do you have a 0:34:54.640 --> 0:34:59.399 play in either game tonight? Obviously a double header, which 0:34:59.680 --> 0:35:02.000 again and for those of us who are in fast 0:35:02.040 --> 0:35:04.840 mode today, having football on just that much earlier is 0:35:04.880 --> 0:35:08.279 going to help us through the fast here. Eagles at Bucks. 0:35:08.320 --> 0:35:11.640 Eagles are five point favorites, Rams at Bengals. It does 0:35:11.680 --> 0:35:14.359 not look like Burrow's playing Bengals one and a half 0:35:14.400 --> 0:35:17.520 point favorites. Any play tonight on either game? Nothing for me, Yeah, 0:35:17.560 --> 0:35:19.279 nothing for me. And again, for those who are tuned 0:35:19.280 --> 0:35:21.040 in money, Like, how can you not have any any 0:35:21.040 --> 0:35:23.080 play on the Monday night game. We speak about the 0:35:23.080 --> 0:35:25.200 week's games for a week, we tell you what our 0:35:25.239 --> 0:35:26.360 contest picks are gonna be. 0:35:26.760 --> 0:35:29.200 All of our bets. If it ain't the Monday night games, 0:35:29.239 --> 0:35:30.200 it ain't the Monday night games. 0:35:30.280 --> 0:35:32.040 I mean, I mean Rams Bengals. 0:35:32.400 --> 0:35:34.360 I don't unless you're able to get in front of 0:35:34.440 --> 0:35:37.839 whatever movement comes on official news on Burrow. I don't 0:35:37.840 --> 0:35:39.399 really know how you can put a bet in right 0:35:39.400 --> 0:35:42.359 now unless you really like the Rams and and you're 0:35:42.400 --> 0:35:45.080 just going in that direction regardless. In Eagles Bucks I've 0:35:45.120 --> 0:35:47.240 said it since before the season. I got enough respect 0:35:47.239 --> 0:35:50.200 for this Bucks team that it would be Bucks or 0:35:50.200 --> 0:35:51.080 passed for me in that game. 0:35:51.080 --> 0:35:53.080 But I think I'm just staying see, I think the 0:35:53.160 --> 0:35:55.440 end game thing for me is to quickly assess if 0:35:55.440 --> 0:35:57.920 the Eagles are going to roll them, you know, but 0:35:58.000 --> 0:35:59.319 we'll see. All right, let's go. We got a lot 0:35:59.360 --> 0:36:02.239 of games to make, Okay, let's start off with the 0:36:02.280 --> 0:36:05.319 second best game of the week, Broncos at Bears. Oh 0:36:05.360 --> 0:36:09.160 my three versus oh and three in that defeat at 0:36:09.160 --> 0:36:11.920 the hands that epic defeat at the hands of the Dolphins, Wilson. 0:36:12.000 --> 0:36:13.920 Russell Wilson was twenty three of thirty eight for three 0:36:13.960 --> 0:36:16.399 to ZH six. But again, the Broncos gave up seven 0:36:16.480 --> 0:36:20.040 hundred twenty six total yards seventy one plays to the Dolphins. 0:36:20.120 --> 0:36:22.520 They were minus three and turnovers. It's the worst loss 0:36:22.520 --> 0:36:26.000 of Sean Payton's career, fifty points seventy to twenty the 0:36:26.040 --> 0:36:28.560 most points and yards allowed seventy and seven to twenty 0:36:28.600 --> 0:36:32.799 six in Denver Broncos franchise history. Vance Joseph defensive coordinator, 0:36:32.840 --> 0:36:35.359 I don't know how he sticks around. I just don't. 0:36:35.360 --> 0:36:39.080 After that yesterday, Chicago, their losing streak now is at 0:36:39.120 --> 0:36:43.680 thirteen after getting bounced by the Chiefs. They've given up 0:36:43.680 --> 0:36:46.160 one hundred and six points in three games. It's the 0:36:46.160 --> 0:36:48.920 second most allowed through three games in team history. And 0:36:49.239 --> 0:36:52.000 not really much to say about this game because after 0:36:52.040 --> 0:36:54.759 the Chiefs punted on their first drive, it went like this. 0:36:54.920 --> 0:36:58.480 Kelly Chicago bunt Kansas City touchdown seven to nothing, Chicago 0:36:58.520 --> 0:37:01.719 bunt Kansas City touchdown fourteen nothing, Chicago punt Kansas City 0:37:01.719 --> 0:37:04.359 touchdown twenty one to nothing. Herbert fumble Kansas City field 0:37:04.400 --> 0:37:06.640 goal twenty four to nothing. Fields picked by Mike Edwards, 0:37:06.680 --> 0:37:09.840 Kansas City touchdown thirty one to nothing. Chicago punt Nigoakuay 0:37:09.920 --> 0:37:12.680 rolls into Mahomes leg he's still Okay, stays in Kansas 0:37:12.680 --> 0:37:14.440 City field goal thirty four to nothing, and oh, by 0:37:14.480 --> 0:37:16.680 the way, that's halftime. So that's all you need to 0:37:16.680 --> 0:37:19.279 know right there. The only good Chicago news of the 0:37:19.360 --> 0:37:21.799 day came when Blaine Gabbard came in for Mahomes. He 0:37:21.840 --> 0:37:24.279 got picked and they actually got a field goal out 0:37:24.320 --> 0:37:26.360 of it. So forty one to ten was the final. 0:37:26.400 --> 0:37:29.400 Fields ended up eleven of twenty two for ninety nine, 0:37:30.200 --> 0:37:32.200 one touchdown, one pick. He was sacked three times, eleven 0:37:32.239 --> 0:37:34.319 carries for forty seven. They only had eleven first downs 0:37:34.360 --> 0:37:36.360 the Bears. They were out gained four fifty six to 0:37:36.400 --> 0:37:40.080 two oh three. They have allowed twenty five plus points 0:37:40.120 --> 0:37:44.520 in thirteen straight games. Matt Eberflus was hired as from 0:37:44.560 --> 0:37:47.239 the Colts as a He was a defensive coordinator with 0:37:47.320 --> 0:37:51.360 the Colts. Luke gets the as their offensive coordinator. We 0:37:51.400 --> 0:37:55.120 all remember what happened last week with a defensive coordinator leaving, resigning, 0:37:55.360 --> 0:37:58.000 and then that Field's news conference press conference where he's 0:37:58.040 --> 0:38:02.040 like the coaches, I'm too robotic this team has not 0:38:02.120 --> 0:38:05.439 improved at all. Fields has not improved at all either 0:38:05.480 --> 0:38:07.560 gets he's got to go where Everflu's has got to go. 0:38:07.600 --> 0:38:09.160 For my bet, I hope it's ever BLUs. I don't 0:38:09.160 --> 0:38:10.879 want to rejoice again. It's a man losing his job. 0:38:11.040 --> 0:38:13.520 But this is the most moribund team in all of football. 0:38:13.719 --> 0:38:16.680 I agree with that tweet earlier. They're the They're the Cardinals. 0:38:16.719 --> 0:38:18.479 Oh yeah, yep, that everybody thought. 0:38:18.880 --> 0:38:20.440 I mean especially I mean, you're row with three at 0:38:20.480 --> 0:38:21.799 this point, there is I mean, you. 0:38:21.680 --> 0:38:24.200 Have no hope. What is there to believe in? Nothing's 0:38:24.280 --> 0:38:25.000 team right now? 0:38:25.040 --> 0:38:27.319 I mean the the coaching staff is a disaster, Your 0:38:27.400 --> 0:38:31.080 quarterback is a disaster. And taking shots at your coaching staff, 0:38:31.800 --> 0:38:33.960 I mean, there's there's no upside to. 0:38:33.920 --> 0:38:34.759 This team right now. 0:38:35.680 --> 0:38:37.759 In frank, like, I had him tied into one of 0:38:37.800 --> 0:38:40.080 those one of those teasers. The Jags and the Chiefs 0:38:40.160 --> 0:38:42.160 yesterday did a weird like twelve and a half in 0:38:42.200 --> 0:38:44.080 the six half. We also just laid all the points 0:38:44.320 --> 0:38:45.160 with the Bears. 0:38:45.160 --> 0:38:47.560 Denver minus one and a half at Chicago is my 0:38:47.600 --> 0:38:50.960 guess and my way off little bit Denver three and three, 0:38:51.040 --> 0:38:54.239 three and a half in the market, right now after 0:38:54.280 --> 0:38:56.160 every three and a hook, three to the hook, they 0:38:56.160 --> 0:38:57.879 give him three and a three hook of draft kings 0:38:57.920 --> 0:39:00.239 right now. Yeah, listen, I think Chicago is terrible, but 0:39:00.280 --> 0:39:01.960 come on, Denver's three and a hook. 0:39:03.160 --> 0:39:05.200 I love that we're going to argue over this game 0:39:05.239 --> 0:39:07.800 because there is no way I could bet the Chicago Bears. 0:39:08.160 --> 0:39:10.120 There's betting the Denver Broncos in this game. 0:39:10.120 --> 0:39:12.920 If I had to, I'm not touching this. But for 0:39:12.920 --> 0:39:16.080 for that to be the line seems pretty commice. Yeah, 0:39:16.080 --> 0:39:17.359 I hear you, hear Ria. 0:39:17.520 --> 0:39:19.000 What's next? All right? Up? 0:39:19.120 --> 0:39:22.080 Ravens at Brown. Oh, that's a great game to two 0:39:22.120 --> 0:39:25.320 and one teams in the in the AFC. North Ravens 0:39:25.320 --> 0:39:28.120 two and one now after they lose to Indianapolis Cleveland 0:39:28.120 --> 0:39:33.440 two and one after they beat Tennessee handily Baltimore. Seven 0:39:33.480 --> 0:39:35.680 starters were out in this game. First time they touched 0:39:35.680 --> 0:39:37.520 the ball though they went eighty yards lamar in from eight. 0:39:37.520 --> 0:39:39.759 They were up seven to nothing. That's a little more 0:39:39.800 --> 0:39:42.799 than midway through the first quarter. Ravens second possession, first 0:39:42.840 --> 0:39:45.239 intend at the Indianapolis forty six Lamar to Kenyon Drake, 0:39:45.280 --> 0:39:47.200 who they had just signed to the practice squad, and 0:39:47.200 --> 0:39:49.200 then called him up twenty four yard game, but Drake 0:39:49.239 --> 0:39:52.000 got the ball poked out by Julius Brientz, who recovered 0:39:52.000 --> 0:39:54.160 it as well. After a trade of Pont's Colts went 0:39:54.160 --> 0:39:56.799 seventy four yards minsheot zac Moss from seventeen down seven 0:39:56.840 --> 0:39:59.279 to seven, six oh seven left. Second quarter, first plan 0:39:59.320 --> 0:40:01.879 suing drive one fumbled again hit by Tavian Bryan Quinny 0:40:01.920 --> 0:40:04.319 Payne recovers. It leads to an Indianapolis thirty one yard 0:40:04.360 --> 0:40:09.240 field goal after substitution chess match between Harbaugh and Steiken 0:40:09.440 --> 0:40:11.879 ten to seven Colts that ends up being the halftime score. 0:40:11.880 --> 0:40:13.759 After a trade punt so ten to seven Colts, then 0:40:13.760 --> 0:40:14.560 Adam Matt. 0:40:14.440 --> 0:40:17.160 Gay fifty four yard field goal to go up thirteen 0:40:17.200 --> 0:40:19.879 to seven with a thirty three left in the third quarter. 0:40:19.920 --> 0:40:22.160 After another trade, u Ponts Ravens then take eighty one 0:40:22.280 --> 0:40:25.600 yards lamar in from ten out Baltimore fourteen thirteen thirteen 0:40:25.600 --> 0:40:27.840 seconds left in the third quarter. Gay then hits a 0:40:27.840 --> 0:40:30.480 fifty three yard field goal to make it sixteen to fourteen. 0:40:30.680 --> 0:40:33.320 Tucker answers with a fifty yard or seventeen to sixteen 0:40:33.360 --> 0:40:35.920 Baltimore seven thirty three left in the ball game. Colts 0:40:35.920 --> 0:40:37.920 then forced upon. Baltimore gets the ball with four to 0:40:37.960 --> 0:40:39.879 forty eight left, third and six at their own twenty five. 0:40:40.000 --> 0:40:42.440 Lamar about to get sacked by Ebu Kam and Zaire Franklin, 0:40:42.560 --> 0:40:44.600 somehow escapes gets the first but the next third down, 0:40:44.680 --> 0:40:46.760 third and five from their own forty nine, Jackson sacked 0:40:46.760 --> 0:40:49.680 by Franklin. Punt pins the Colts at their own two 0:40:50.080 --> 0:40:53.160 down seventeen to sixteen, two fourteen left, third and eleven 0:40:53.160 --> 0:40:55.560 at their own one two oh five left. Minshew steps 0:40:55.560 --> 0:40:57.000 on the boundary in the back of the end zone 0:40:57.040 --> 0:41:00.840 safety nineteen sixteen Baltimore two oh three left. Surely, the 0:41:00.960 --> 0:41:04.120 Ravens are gonna win this football game. Ravens three and out, 0:41:04.120 --> 0:41:06.319 though Colts start at their own thirty eight one forty 0:41:06.400 --> 0:41:09.080 one left, they matriculate. They get a gay fifty three 0:41:09.160 --> 0:41:12.400 yarder nineteen nineteen fifty seven seconds left, and then Tucker 0:41:12.440 --> 0:41:15.239 misses a sixty one yarder dead on but short. We're 0:41:15.239 --> 0:41:18.439 going overtime. Colts win the coin toss three and out. 0:41:19.000 --> 0:41:21.920 Devin Duverney returns the punt thirty one yards. The Ravens 0:41:21.920 --> 0:41:24.000 are set up in plus territory at the indy forty 0:41:24.040 --> 0:41:26.719 seven they're gonna win. Surely the Ravens are but a 0:41:26.760 --> 0:41:29.160 three and out, they have to punt. Colts take over 0:41:29.239 --> 0:41:31.560 seven minutes left in overtime. Min should have Pittman Junior 0:41:31.560 --> 0:41:33.320 for thirty four, But fourth and one at the Baltimore 0:41:33.400 --> 0:41:36.279 forty six, four point fifteen left, Zach Moss stuff for 0:41:36.320 --> 0:41:39.920 no gain. Baltimore takes over again fourth and three at 0:41:39.920 --> 0:41:43.040 the Indianapolis forty seven, three twenty five left. Surely they're 0:41:43.080 --> 0:41:47.279 going to win again. Oh Zey Flowers tackled before the 0:41:47.320 --> 0:41:50.840 ball gets to them. No call, You've gotta be kidding me. 0:41:51.560 --> 0:41:55.719 No flag thrown. Colts take over again three twenty one left, 0:41:55.719 --> 0:41:58.040 and this time Matt Gay, who's already hit from fifty 0:41:58.080 --> 0:42:01.000 three to fifty three and fifty four. A Moss thirteen 0:42:01.080 --> 0:42:03.080 yard run sets him up for a fifty three yard 0:42:03.120 --> 0:42:06.040 or good. Colts win twenty two to nineteen. A whole 0:42:06.120 --> 0:42:08.240 mess of survivor entries go out with that as well. 0:42:08.800 --> 0:42:11.719 Lamar finishes twenty two of thirty one for two toh two, 0:42:11.840 --> 0:42:14.760 no touchdowns, no Picksie was sacked four times, fourteenth carries 0:42:14.760 --> 0:42:16.799 for one oh one two touchdowns, one fumble loss. The 0:42:16.840 --> 0:42:19.040 Colts were minus two and turnovers. How they lost I 0:42:19.040 --> 0:42:19.800 have no idea. 0:42:20.719 --> 0:42:23.400 Yeah, it's that is a fascinating game. I mean, Ravens 0:42:23.440 --> 0:42:26.120 with so many injuries, so many injuries. When you talk 0:42:26.160 --> 0:42:28.840 about this side going into going into this next week. 0:42:28.680 --> 0:42:32.759 And then Cleveland beats Tennessee, they do. So it was 0:42:32.840 --> 0:42:36.000 a tight There were statistically dominating Tennessee at the half, 0:42:36.360 --> 0:42:39.040 yet they were only up ten thirteen to ten. H 0:42:39.200 --> 0:42:41.319 Tannehill had been sacked three times in the first half. 0:42:41.320 --> 0:42:44.200 Tennessee had only four first downs, Tennessee was only one 0:42:44.200 --> 0:42:47.000 of seven on third down, only sixty seven total yards 0:42:47.080 --> 0:42:49.160 in the first half. And then the Browns did score 0:42:49.200 --> 0:42:51.680 twice to blow it open twenty three to pardon me, 0:42:51.840 --> 0:42:56.239 final score twenty seven to three. I will say the 0:42:56.280 --> 0:43:00.400 Browns minus four and a half at home against Baltimore. 0:43:00.080 --> 0:43:03.640 Interesting grounds, two to two and a half basically everywhere 0:43:03.719 --> 0:43:06.719 right now. Uh, they opened like one and a half. 0:43:06.800 --> 0:43:11.080 Those who Cleveland have been taking one here. Yeah, that's 0:43:11.320 --> 0:43:13.040 one and a half scorning. So it's kind of it's 0:43:13.040 --> 0:43:13.439 been moving. 0:43:13.520 --> 0:43:15.440 Yeah, that Cleveland d is epic. 0:43:15.640 --> 0:43:17.440 It is at best defense in the AFC. 0:43:18.719 --> 0:43:20.720 That might be a Cleveland play for me right there, 0:43:21.120 --> 0:43:26.000 all right, still continuing Week four, guessing lines National Football League. 0:43:26.160 --> 0:43:28.560 It's a numbers game at Visa, these sports betting network, 0:43:30.800 --> 0:43:33.080 the Numbers told the story they always done. It's one 0:43:33.080 --> 0:43:34.960 of those idiots who believe in the analytics. 0:43:35.040 --> 0:43:38.320 This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander. 0:43:38.719 --> 0:43:40.239 Our number two of a numbers game at Visa, the 0:43:40.280 --> 0:43:42.719 sports betting Network, Visa dot Com, the Visa app game 0:43:42.719 --> 0:43:47.720 plus iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, all proudly broadcast from bar Canada 0:43:47.840 --> 0:43:50.400 at the d I still do that, all Proudlytty been 0:43:50.440 --> 0:43:52.880 going to the old thing. By the way, I forgot 0:43:52.880 --> 0:43:56.560 to say again, DK Network, Levatard. Yeah, we're back on Vson. 0:43:56.840 --> 0:43:58.520 We get to right, we get so wrapped up in 0:43:58.560 --> 0:44:01.239 it we forget sometimes. Yeah, we'll get to Brandon Dale, 0:44:01.280 --> 0:44:03.680 We'll get to Josh McDaniels. But the beauty of this 0:44:03.760 --> 0:44:06.719 here segment is some teams haven't played yet, and some 0:44:06.760 --> 0:44:08.560 teams we've already talked about their games, so we can 0:44:08.640 --> 0:44:11.960 rapid fire through a bunch of these what's next Bengals, 0:44:11.960 --> 0:44:15.120 that Titans, Bengals, Bengals, the Titans. Of course, Bengals play 0:44:15.239 --> 0:44:18.239 tonight against the Rams and the second of the two 0:44:18.280 --> 0:44:21.040 games that I'm Monday Night football. So sight unseen on 0:44:21.080 --> 0:44:23.279 them and the Titans, as we just mentioned, in their 0:44:23.320 --> 0:44:26.680 loss to the Cleveland Browns, Tannehill thirteen of twenty five 0:44:26.760 --> 0:44:31.399 for one to oh four. That's it. No touchdowns, no picks. 0:44:31.400 --> 0:44:34.759 He was sacked five times, three and a half went 0:44:34.800 --> 0:44:37.239 to Miles Garrett. Miles Garrett also forced to fumble. In 0:44:37.280 --> 0:44:41.280 that game. Derrick Henry eleven carries for twenty yards against 0:44:41.280 --> 0:44:44.440 the vaunted Browns defense, a twenty three to six first 0:44:44.480 --> 0:44:47.360 down disadvantage for the Titans. They were outgained three forty 0:44:47.440 --> 0:44:50.960 one to ninety four in total yards thirty eight twenty 0:44:51.040 --> 0:44:54.840 nine to twenty one, thirty one disadvantage in time of possession. 0:44:55.040 --> 0:44:56.520 And oh, by the way, I don't know if you 0:44:56.600 --> 0:45:01.200 notice this, with four point fifty eight left in the game, 0:45:01.680 --> 0:45:05.279 down twenty four, fourth and fourth their own forty four, 0:45:05.600 --> 0:45:09.080 Mike Vrabel just waved the white flag and punted like 0:45:09.360 --> 0:45:12.719 he was just like, we can't do anything. I will say, 0:45:13.040 --> 0:45:15.800 sight unseen on the Bengals. I'll assume Burrow comes back. 0:45:16.040 --> 0:45:18.239 I said, Bengals minus two and a half on the road, 0:45:18.480 --> 0:45:21.440 Titans one and a half, right now, wow, one and 0:45:21.440 --> 0:45:21.759 a half. 0:45:22.080 --> 0:45:24.440 That'll come down to who's playing quarterback, right, Yeah, totally. 0:45:25.120 --> 0:45:28.160 We're talking about tonight, speculating. We're speculating about a week 0:45:28.640 --> 0:45:31.800 a week away. Next up, Rams at Colts, Early window. 0:45:31.920 --> 0:45:35.400 Rams at Colts, Rams don't play again until tonight against 0:45:35.400 --> 0:45:39.240 the Bengals Indianapolis. In that win against the Ravens, Minshew 0:45:39.600 --> 0:45:42.160 twenty seven to forty four for two twenty seven, one touchdown, 0:45:42.200 --> 0:45:44.640 no picks. He was sacked five times three by Kyle 0:45:45.120 --> 0:45:48.279 Kyle Hamilton, Zach Moss thirty carries for one to twenty two. 0:45:48.400 --> 0:45:50.759 The Colts were plus two in turnovers that led to 0:45:50.800 --> 0:45:53.399 plus three net Colts points the margin of victory, and 0:45:53.440 --> 0:45:56.040 Matt Gabe becomes the first kicker in NFL history to 0:45:56.080 --> 0:45:59.279 make four field goals of fifty yards or longer in 0:45:59.400 --> 0:46:02.480 a game. How about that he was money. I'll say 0:46:02.480 --> 0:46:04.920 the Colts minus one and a half. Sight unseen on 0:46:04.920 --> 0:46:08.000 the Rams Colts won. Uh, I do see a pick 0:46:08.080 --> 0:46:10.160 them out there about? Yeah? 0:46:10.200 --> 0:46:14.400 It's mainly one though, okay. Next Next up Buccaneers at 0:46:14.520 --> 0:46:15.120 the Saints. 0:46:15.160 --> 0:46:17.360 All right, Buccaneers hosting the Eagles in the first of 0:46:17.360 --> 0:46:20.000 the two Monday night games. Sight unseen on them? New 0:46:20.080 --> 0:46:22.799 Orleans lost Derek Carry. Yesterday, Jamis had to come in 0:46:22.880 --> 0:46:25.120 car was thirteen of eighteen for one oh three in 0:46:25.120 --> 0:46:27.200 that loss to the Packers, one touchdown, no picks. He 0:46:27.239 --> 0:46:30.080 was sacked three times. Jamis ten for sixteen for one 0:46:30.120 --> 0:46:33.160 oh one. Kind of identical, no touchdowns, no picks. He 0:46:33.200 --> 0:46:35.600 was sacked once. Olave eight catches for one oh four, 0:46:35.640 --> 0:46:38.440 only two hundred and fifty two total yards for the Saints. 0:46:38.600 --> 0:46:41.040 They were four fourteen on third down again Tampa Bay. 0:46:41.080 --> 0:46:43.560 Sight unseen. I'll say New Orleans minus one and a 0:46:43.600 --> 0:46:45.480 half split the difference between a pick him and the three. 0:46:45.480 --> 0:46:46.279 I didn't know what to say. 0:46:46.400 --> 0:46:48.520 I just got really excited because I didn't think about 0:46:48.560 --> 0:46:52.040 this game yesterday. Jamis Winston revenge game. Oh my god, 0:46:52.080 --> 0:46:56.719 this is great. Sign me up Saints three at DraftKings 0:46:56.760 --> 0:46:58.320 right now. Saints three. 0:46:58.360 --> 0:47:01.239 That seems aggressive of the three. Yeah, I'm with you. 0:47:02.560 --> 0:47:03.000 It's yeah. 0:47:03.000 --> 0:47:05.520 It's painted three. For people that have it posted, it is. 0:47:05.600 --> 0:47:06.759 It is three everywhere? 0:47:06.840 --> 0:47:10.040 All right? All right? NFC East matchup Commanders at Eagles. 0:47:10.040 --> 0:47:12.319 All right, Eagles again, of course on the road at 0:47:12.360 --> 0:47:14.560 Tampa ban the first Monday night game tonight Washington. As 0:47:14.600 --> 0:47:17.960 I talked about, got crushed by the Bills, only got 0:47:18.000 --> 0:47:19.800 on the board with a Joey Slide field goal with 0:47:19.840 --> 0:47:22.280 fifty one seconds left. They got out gained by Buffalo. 0:47:22.320 --> 0:47:25.120 Washington did two twelve to one seventeen in the first half, 0:47:25.400 --> 0:47:27.920 eighteen thirty two to eleven thirty two disadvantage of time 0:47:27.920 --> 0:47:29.600 of possession. In the first half, they were minus two 0:47:29.640 --> 0:47:33.480 and turnovers. Howell ended up nineteen for twenty nine for 0:47:33.600 --> 0:47:38.279 one seventy no touchdowns, four picks. He was sacked nine times, 0:47:38.280 --> 0:47:43.680 Skelly nine times, nine times. Washington was one of nine 0:47:43.680 --> 0:47:45.439 on third down. They were out Game three eighty sixty 0:47:45.440 --> 0:47:48.000 two thirty. They were minus four and turnovers that led 0:47:48.040 --> 0:47:52.600 directly to a net plus seventeen Buffalo points. Philly sight unseen, 0:47:52.719 --> 0:47:55.320 Philly minus six maybe. 0:47:55.080 --> 0:47:59.320 Seven six, I said six seven, Okay, mag seven, looks 0:47:59.360 --> 0:48:01.759 like it come off the seven here. 0:48:03.280 --> 0:48:04.440 But yeah, it's it's. 0:48:04.280 --> 0:48:06.400 Painted seven pretty much. Ev al right, let's go to 0:48:06.400 --> 0:48:08.319 another We're gonna keep it going going, all right. 0:48:08.440 --> 0:48:11.839 Vikings at Panthers in the early window. Vikings said, Panthers, 0:48:11.840 --> 0:48:15.440 Oh that's another zero to three clash. Come on, Panthers, 0:48:15.680 --> 0:48:20.319 keep losing, baby, I need you to Minnesota against the 0:48:20.440 --> 0:48:24.719 Chargers yesterday Kelly's the most on brand football game in 0:48:24.760 --> 0:48:28.239 the history of on brand football games. Minnesota third and 0:48:28.280 --> 0:48:30.359 eight at the Chargers twenty six, eight to forty one left, 0:48:30.360 --> 0:48:33.760 first quarter, scoreless game. Cousins to Hawkinson pass the sticks 0:48:33.880 --> 0:48:36.800 stripped by a low high Gilman. Chargers then go seventy 0:48:36.880 --> 0:48:39.359 nine yards with it Herbert and Donald Barham from three 0:48:39.400 --> 0:48:42.240 out seven to nothing, Chargers two fifty one left. First quarter. 0:48:42.520 --> 0:48:44.799 After the team's trade punts, Minnesota goes seventy five yards. 0:48:44.800 --> 0:48:47.400 Cousin said Jefferson for twenty one cousins of Jefferson for 0:48:47.440 --> 0:48:50.040 thirty four. The big plays Cousins said Josh Oliver from 0:48:50.040 --> 0:48:52.040 four out to knock things up at seven to seven. 0:48:52.160 --> 0:48:54.959 Seven to twenty seven left. Second quarter. Third play, ensuing drive, 0:48:55.040 --> 0:48:58.240 Herbert and Josh Joshua Palmer hit by Jordan Hicks fumbles. 0:48:58.440 --> 0:49:02.000 Hicks recovers first Chargers turnover of the season. How can 0:49:02.040 --> 0:49:03.640 you be zero to two and not have a turnover? 0:49:03.760 --> 0:49:04.040 I know. 0:49:04.640 --> 0:49:06.719 Vikings appear to get held to a field goal try, 0:49:06.719 --> 0:49:09.719 but Derwin James then flagged for unnecessary roughness on third 0:49:09.760 --> 0:49:11.640 and goal, which gives the Vikings a first in goal. 0:49:11.840 --> 0:49:14.840 Next play Madison appeared to fumble, but they called forward progress. 0:49:15.320 --> 0:49:17.799 Minnesota settles for Greg Joseph twenty three yard field goal, 0:49:17.800 --> 0:49:19.719 ten to seven Minnesota, two oh eight left in the 0:49:19.760 --> 0:49:22.200 second quarter. Already the game is starting to get tipsy. 0:49:22.239 --> 0:49:25.040 It's not drunk yet, but it's getting tipsy. Chargers then 0:49:25.080 --> 0:49:27.360 go seventy five yards all but three yards on Herbert 0:49:27.400 --> 0:49:30.000 passes Herbert to Parham from one out on fourth and goal. 0:49:30.320 --> 0:49:33.560 It's fourteen to ten Chargers. That would be the halftime score. 0:49:33.680 --> 0:49:36.279 Here's your halftime stat on Justin Herbert ready for this 0:49:36.560 --> 0:49:40.560 twenty six for thirty for one eighty seven, six point 0:49:40.560 --> 0:49:43.040 two yards per attempt, two touchdowns, no picks, was not sacked. 0:49:43.080 --> 0:49:45.240 He also had twelve yards rushing, which led the Chargers 0:49:45.320 --> 0:49:49.680 all right, fourteen to ten. Chargers. Third quarter air after 0:49:49.719 --> 0:49:52.439 a Vikings punt, mcmannus misses a fifty three yard field 0:49:52.480 --> 0:49:55.160 goal try for the Chargers. Fike's punt again then first 0:49:55.200 --> 0:49:57.120 and ten at the Minnesota forty nine with the Chargers 0:49:57.200 --> 0:49:58.680 for the Chargers with six oh one left in the 0:49:58.680 --> 0:50:01.880 third quarter, Herbert latter to Keenan Allen, who then throws 0:50:01.880 --> 0:50:06.080 it to Mike Williams touchdown. Twenty one to ten Chargers 0:50:06.200 --> 0:50:08.480 five point fifty two left in the third quarter, and Kelly, 0:50:08.480 --> 0:50:11.080 you're saying to yourself, the Chargers are gonna roll. This 0:50:11.120 --> 0:50:13.560 is gonna coast job, This is gonna be so easy, 0:50:13.880 --> 0:50:17.240 and then you remember, oh, I'm talking about the chargers 0:50:17.600 --> 0:50:20.520 that ain't happening. Vikings then have fourth and six at 0:50:20.560 --> 0:50:23.279 the Chargers thirty six three fourteen left in the third quarter. 0:50:23.440 --> 0:50:26.000 They go for it, Cousins to kJ Osmoorn takes it 0:50:26.040 --> 0:50:29.040 to the house twenty one seventeen Chargers three oh one left. 0:50:29.040 --> 0:50:32.600 Third quarter, Chargers punt. Vikings matriculate eighty three yards Cousins 0:50:32.600 --> 0:50:35.640 of Jefferson for fifty two to the house twenty four 0:50:35.680 --> 0:50:38.440 to twenty one Minnesota eleven twenty left, and then the 0:50:38.560 --> 0:50:41.400 Chargers go seventy five yards Herbert to Joshua Palmer on 0:50:41.480 --> 0:50:45.120 the ricochet off the hands of Vikings cornerback A. Caleb 0:50:45.200 --> 0:50:49.399 Evans for thirty yards twenty eight twenty four Chargers eight 0:50:49.560 --> 0:50:53.279 oh five left. Oh boy, oh boy. Vikings then get 0:50:53.320 --> 0:50:55.719 it to first and goal at the Chargers three with 0:50:55.840 --> 0:50:59.160 four to twenty three left, down four. Here's the sequence, 0:50:59.320 --> 0:51:02.480 two yard game, one yard loss incomplete fourth and goal 0:51:02.480 --> 0:51:05.920 at the two. Incomplete, Chargers take back over still up 0:51:05.960 --> 0:51:08.080 twenty eight, twenty four at their own two with two 0:51:08.200 --> 0:51:11.439 fifty three left, then fourth and one at their own 0:51:11.520 --> 0:51:17.279 twenty four, up four one fifty one left. Brandon Staley says, 0:51:17.280 --> 0:51:20.760 we're going for it. We're gonna put this away. Kelly 0:51:20.880 --> 0:51:23.959 stuffed for no gain. You're throwing it all around the yard. 0:51:24.160 --> 0:51:27.759 Let's just throw Kelly up the middle stuffed. Will this 0:51:27.880 --> 0:51:29.799 be the first time in NFL history that head coach 0:51:29.800 --> 0:51:34.640 will be fired right on the spot before our very eyes? No, 0:51:34.640 --> 0:51:37.680 no firing. Vikings take over at the Chargers twenty four, 0:51:37.760 --> 0:51:40.080 one forty six left. First down pass goes off of 0:51:40.120 --> 0:51:43.560 Osborne's hands, had him for a potential score. Then, after 0:51:43.600 --> 0:51:45.960 a Charger's illegal use of the hands penalty, Vikings have 0:51:46.040 --> 0:51:47.880 it first and ten at the Chargers twenty with fifty 0:51:47.880 --> 0:51:51.400 five seconds left. They're only down four. Ends up fourth 0:51:51.440 --> 0:51:54.560 and five at the Chargers fifteen with forty one seconds left. 0:51:54.880 --> 0:51:59.160 Cousins to Hockinson pass the sticks first and goal at 0:51:59.200 --> 0:52:02.279 the six. There's thirty five seconds left in the game, 0:52:02.360 --> 0:52:07.320 no timeouts. The Vikings don't run a play for twenty 0:52:07.480 --> 0:52:12.279 three seconds, twelve seconds left on the clock KERK Cousins. 0:52:12.719 --> 0:52:15.560 They tried to quick snap him instead of spiking it, 0:52:15.840 --> 0:52:18.360 but the Vikings would say later that the home crowd 0:52:18.440 --> 0:52:22.120 noise worked against them and that Cousins couldn't hear the play, 0:52:22.480 --> 0:52:25.240 so ultimately Cousins just decided to run his own play. 0:52:25.480 --> 0:52:28.120 He gets picked off on a deflection in the end 0:52:28.160 --> 0:52:32.040 zone by Kenneth Murray. Junior ballgame, the most on brand 0:52:32.040 --> 0:52:35.560 football game in the history of football games. Someone forced 0:52:35.560 --> 0:52:38.239 to win mandatory. I guess it could have been a tie, 0:52:38.280 --> 0:52:40.600 but it didn't happen. Chargers are the team that wins it, 0:52:40.800 --> 0:52:42.960 twenty eight to twenty four. They go to one and 0:52:43.000 --> 0:52:45.920 two and the Vikings are zero to three. Start the Cousins. 0:52:45.920 --> 0:52:50.440 The Jets talk again. Yep. Cousins thirty two of fifty 0:52:50.480 --> 0:52:52.560 three to sixty seven, three touchdowns, one pick. He was 0:52:52.600 --> 0:52:55.279 sacked four times, Jefferson seven for one, forty nine out 0:52:55.280 --> 0:52:58.240 a touch Both teams had exactly four hundred and seventy 0:52:58.280 --> 0:53:03.279 five total yards, which is so poetic, so poetic. Who 0:53:03.280 --> 0:53:05.040 are they playing again? Who are the Chargers playing or 0:53:05.000 --> 0:53:08.400 in Minnesota planking Vikings Panthers? Oh yeah, the Panthers. Panthers 0:53:08.440 --> 0:53:09.800 Panthers are zero and three. I don't know what to 0:53:09.800 --> 0:53:11.480 say about this game. It was a field goal fest 0:53:11.480 --> 0:53:14.840 for Carolina, excuse me, for the Seahawks. In the first half. 0:53:15.560 --> 0:53:17.839 Carolina had the one touchdown, so it was thirteen to 0:53:17.880 --> 0:53:22.040 twelve Carolina at the half. But then in the second half, 0:53:22.560 --> 0:53:25.000 after Seattle got a fifth field goal from Jason Myers 0:53:25.040 --> 0:53:27.479 to go up fifteen to thirteen, Pinero missed a fifty 0:53:27.480 --> 0:53:29.279 five yard and whenever you miss a long field goal 0:53:29.360 --> 0:53:32.280 like that, it's bad news. Seahawks went fifty five yards 0:53:32.320 --> 0:53:34.640 walker Kenneth Walker the third in from one. It was 0:53:34.640 --> 0:53:37.400 twenty two to thirteen Seattle. The Panthers did get it 0:53:37.440 --> 0:53:40.279 to twenty two to twenty a little later, but then 0:53:40.320 --> 0:53:42.680 with fourteen fifty five left in the ballgame, Seattle went 0:53:42.719 --> 0:53:44.920 sixty nine yards and six plays Walker in from seven, 0:53:45.120 --> 0:53:48.160 twenty nine to twenty with eleven forty left. Then the Panthers, 0:53:48.239 --> 0:53:51.280 down nine, had to punt it on fourth and nineteen 0:53:51.360 --> 0:53:54.440 from their own forty six with eight thirteen left. I 0:53:54.440 --> 0:53:56.480 guess they had to punt it because it was nineteen 0:53:56.560 --> 0:53:59.399 yards to go. They got it back after Seahawks three 0:53:59.400 --> 0:54:01.759 and out five point fifty left but then it was 0:54:01.800 --> 0:54:04.000 a four and out for the Panthers. Fourth and seven 0:54:04.200 --> 0:54:06.200 at the Carolina thirty five four to fifty two left, 0:54:06.239 --> 0:54:09.040 Dalton was sacked by Jaron Reid on an absolute jail 0:54:09.080 --> 0:54:12.319 break shortfield. Seahawks scored again. That was it thirty seven 0:54:12.320 --> 0:54:14.360 to twenty at that point. Final score thirty seven to 0:54:14.360 --> 0:54:17.720 twenty seven. Seahawks get home, Seahawks betters, get the money. 0:54:18.560 --> 0:54:23.839 Minnesota at Carolina Battle of the Ohen threes. Come on, Minnesota, 0:54:23.880 --> 0:54:24.880 can you do this once? 0:54:24.880 --> 0:54:25.160 For me? 0:54:25.239 --> 0:54:27.560 I said, Vikings by three on the road. 0:54:28.320 --> 0:54:31.000 Vikings three is pretty much when it opened, it's gone 0:54:31.040 --> 0:54:31.920 to three and a half. 0:54:32.640 --> 0:54:34.959 It's it's three and a half everywhere, three and a half, 0:54:35.000 --> 0:54:36.200 three and o' hook. I think that's right. 0:54:36.520 --> 0:54:38.880 I laid the three with the Vikings this morning. 0:54:39.000 --> 0:54:40.759 Oh you did? This is the game where you said 0:54:40.800 --> 0:54:42.680 you have multiple bets on the game I was talking about. 0:54:42.680 --> 0:54:44.240 I laid the three of the Vikings and I played 0:54:44.239 --> 0:54:46.839 the over in this game as well. I think we 0:54:46.840 --> 0:54:48.839 were right to be a little more scared of Andy 0:54:48.920 --> 0:54:51.320 Dalton than for Bryce Young Like I think that played 0:54:51.320 --> 0:54:54.880 out for sure. I'm much less scared going against Carolina 0:54:54.920 --> 0:54:55.719 when it's Bryce Young. 0:54:56.520 --> 0:54:58.880 This is the situation Night brought up last week, like, 0:54:58.920 --> 0:55:00.440 what do you do if you're the pant if the 0:55:00.440 --> 0:55:01.840 Panther's going for This. 0:55:02.440 --> 0:55:05.239 Is why we got crushed on the draft because we're 0:55:05.280 --> 0:55:07.680 so convinced CJ. Stroud is so much better than Bryce 0:55:07.719 --> 0:55:10.480 Young will be at the next level, and so far 0:55:10.600 --> 0:55:14.239 through three games, CJ. Stroud is corroborating all of that. 0:55:15.000 --> 0:55:17.080 We'll get to the Daly decision to put that in context. 0:55:17.080 --> 0:55:19.600 On the other side, more games, numbers game Visa the 0:55:19.640 --> 0:55:20.839 sports betting network. 0:55:23.880 --> 0:55:27.280 A numbers game on Visa these sports betting network. 0:55:27.320 --> 0:55:28.640 Hey, Kelly, you know, I don't know if I've ever 0:55:28.680 --> 0:55:30.480 mentioned this to you, but before you make your next bet, 0:55:30.480 --> 0:55:32.040 be sure to visit Visa dot com to check the 0:55:32.080 --> 0:55:33.319 current betting splits data. 0:55:33.320 --> 0:55:33.960 It's putting this. 0:55:34.880 --> 0:55:36.239 I want to know where the money and bets are 0:55:36.239 --> 0:55:38.680 moving every game. Betting Splitz pays this updated with DraftKings 0:55:38.680 --> 0:55:40.200 odds every five minutes, so you can see changes in 0:55:40.239 --> 0:55:42.000 all the action. Find out where the public's betting based 0:55:42.040 --> 0:55:43.319 on the number of tickets, and where the money does 0:55:43.320 --> 0:55:45.200 not match the public opinion. You can check out not 0:55:45.239 --> 0:55:47.440 just today's action, but future events as well. Betting splits 0:55:47.520 --> 0:55:49.520 yet another way that Visa is here to make you 0:55:49.520 --> 0:55:51.520 a smart, better year round. Checkout today's betting splits for 0:55:51.560 --> 0:55:54.680 every game at vsin dot Com. It's skill Alexander's Kelly 0:55:54.680 --> 0:55:57.680 Bidlin guessing lines for week number four, looking for value. 0:55:58.160 --> 0:56:01.520 Our first impression is often the best one, as it 0:56:01.640 --> 0:56:04.239 was last week. Sort of perfection on guessing lines last 0:56:04.280 --> 0:56:07.480 week with Detroit and Miami and Seattle. By the way, 0:56:07.480 --> 0:56:09.040 you know the betting splits up part that I love 0:56:09.080 --> 0:56:10.920 the best. Remember that like little period of like three 0:56:11.000 --> 0:56:14.000 days where instead of yelling splitting bets, you just you 0:56:14.160 --> 0:56:18.200 just you vomited anything that was on your mind. Aliens exist. 0:56:18.719 --> 0:56:24.880 That's right. That okay, So that Brandon Staley decision to 0:56:24.920 --> 0:56:30.239 go for it fourth and one up four in this 0:56:30.320 --> 0:56:33.800 game twenty eight to twenty four against the Minnesota Vikings. 0:56:33.800 --> 0:56:36.360 The Vikings had every opportunity to cash in on it 0:56:36.400 --> 0:56:39.960 afterwards and couldn't do it because they themselves are like 0:56:40.040 --> 0:56:45.520 the NFC version of the Chargers. You know, the crowd noise, 0:56:45.560 --> 0:56:49.840 Our home crowd noise prevented us from from running the 0:56:49.880 --> 0:56:53.000 proper play. They wasted twenty three seconds. It gets picked 0:56:53.000 --> 0:56:55.799 on a deflection and the Chargers end up winning the game, 0:56:56.080 --> 0:56:58.240 but that Brandon Staley decision to go for it fourth 0:56:58.239 --> 0:57:03.440 and one up four points with fourth and one at 0:57:03.440 --> 0:57:05.279 their own I want to get the details right again. 0:57:05.520 --> 0:57:06.320 Fourth and one. 0:57:06.120 --> 0:57:09.959 At their own twenty four yard line, one fifty one left, 0:57:09.960 --> 0:57:13.040 and Joshua Kelly was stuff for no gain. Again, the 0:57:13.080 --> 0:57:15.920 play call can be debated also, But Seth Walder our 0:57:15.920 --> 0:57:18.919 buddy over at ESPN, he said, the Chargers going forward 0:57:19.000 --> 0:57:20.840 on fourth and one at their own twenty four with 0:57:20.880 --> 0:57:25.400 one to fifty one left, actually what would have been 0:57:25.440 --> 0:57:28.760 an increase in probability going forward would have given them 0:57:28.800 --> 0:57:31.680 a win probability of eighty eight point nine percent, whereas 0:57:31.720 --> 0:57:34.120 punting would have only given them a would have only 0:57:34.120 --> 0:57:36.800 given them a win probability of eighty two point one percent. 0:57:37.000 --> 0:57:41.080 So he says, Brandon Staley made the correct decision. I 0:57:41.280 --> 0:57:45.120 happen to agree with him, but the consequence of not 0:57:45.280 --> 0:57:47.400 making it, I was like, this, dude's getting fired on this. 0:57:47.800 --> 0:57:50.360 We were Ben and I were on the air for 0:57:50.440 --> 0:57:53.240 Live Bed Sunday, and those things are so much tougher 0:57:53.280 --> 0:57:55.880 to process in the moment, right like where you're you're 0:57:55.920 --> 0:57:57.480 seeing him line up to go for it, and you're 0:57:57.520 --> 0:57:59.000 with the lead like we're on the air, I'm like, 0:57:59.040 --> 0:58:01.320 what is he doing? And then you start to think 0:58:01.360 --> 0:58:02.760 about it a little bit more and I'm like, you 0:58:02.760 --> 0:58:04.240 know what, the Chargers defense has. 0:58:04.120 --> 0:58:07.640 Been such trash. You get the yard, it's all games over. 0:58:07.760 --> 0:58:09.960 Like in other words, as much as you might, as 0:58:10.000 --> 0:58:12.520 much as you might in a moment, you know, just 0:58:12.560 --> 0:58:16.560 want to kill him for not going Actually was the 0:58:16.640 --> 0:58:19.640 proper thing to do. And here's the thing, not even 0:58:19.840 --> 0:58:22.280 close to what happened later in the day. Yeah, which 0:58:22.320 --> 0:58:24.160 we'll get to. What's the name it was. 0:58:24.160 --> 0:58:26.160 It took me three minutes though, for my brain to 0:58:26.200 --> 0:58:29.200 process the like, oh no, what is he doing? Oh wait, no, 0:58:29.320 --> 0:58:30.160 this is a good call. 0:58:30.400 --> 0:58:32.280 Oh wait. If he doesn't get this though, he might 0:58:32.320 --> 0:58:34.920 get fired on the spot. All right. 0:58:34.960 --> 0:58:38.640 It's the last early window game Steelers at Texas Beautiful. 0:58:38.680 --> 0:58:40.480 So this falls right into our lap, right after the 0:58:40.480 --> 0:58:44.080 Brand and Stanley conversation. Last early game. So Pittsburgh beats 0:58:44.200 --> 0:58:46.800 the Raiders. That was a pretty big gambling boon for 0:58:46.840 --> 0:58:48.760 anybody who's been in the Steelers last night. They win it 0:58:48.840 --> 0:58:53.080 twenty three to eighteen, outright winner as a dog in 0:58:53.160 --> 0:58:57.240 this game, I mean I could go through this. Raiders 0:58:57.280 --> 0:59:01.280 went up seven and nothing. Garoppolo to Davante. Davante Adams 0:59:01.320 --> 0:59:03.080 was unstoppable in this game. We'll get to that a 0:59:03.080 --> 0:59:06.000 little later. He's incredible. Next drive though, down seven and nothing, 0:59:06.000 --> 0:59:07.840 third and seven at their own twenty eight pick at 0:59:07.840 --> 0:59:11.960 perfect past the Calvin Austin the third in stride seventy 0:59:12.000 --> 0:59:14.520 two yard touchdown seven to seven, six twelve left. 0:59:14.520 --> 0:59:17.200 First quarter. Jalen Warren with the great Blitz pick up 0:59:17.240 --> 0:59:17.680 on that play. 0:59:17.880 --> 0:59:20.920 After a Vegas three and out first play for Pittsburgh, 0:59:21.000 --> 0:59:25.560 Marcus Peters drops a pick six. Steelers eventually punt now 0:59:25.600 --> 0:59:28.080 the second quarter. Raiders ball second and ten at Pittsburgh 0:59:28.080 --> 0:59:29.760 forty three to twelve to twenty seven left in the second 0:59:29.840 --> 0:59:33.720 quarter TI game, Jimmy G picked over the middle by 0:59:33.760 --> 0:59:36.600 Levi Wallace that leads to a Boswell forty three yardfield 0:59:36.600 --> 0:59:39.040 weal ten to seven Pittsburgh eight thirty three left. Second quarter. 0:59:39.320 --> 0:59:41.520 Another three and out for the Raiders, Boswell forty two 0:59:41.560 --> 0:59:43.560 yardfield goal, thirteen to seven. One to fifty six left 0:59:43.600 --> 0:59:47.160 second quarter, Raiders ball. Jimmy G sacked caught under t. J. Watt, 0:59:47.200 --> 0:59:50.320 limped off the field. He would return. Steelers content to 0:59:50.320 --> 0:59:52.520 get to halftime despite not getting the ball first. In 0:59:52.560 --> 0:59:54.840 the second half, they're up thirteen to seven. Third quarter 0:59:55.120 --> 0:59:58.400 Raiders three and out. Boswell fifty seven yard field goal. 0:59:58.640 --> 1:00:02.720 Is Chris Boswell like the most understated great kicker in 1:00:02.760 --> 1:00:04.560 the league, Like we never talk about him. He's just good, 1:00:04.920 --> 1:00:08.480 so great. Sixteen to seven, Pittsburgh nine twenty eight left 1:00:08.480 --> 1:00:10.480 of the third quarter. Then the Raiders second and ten 1:00:10.520 --> 1:00:12.600 at the Pittsburgh forty eight seven twenty five left or 1:00:12.640 --> 1:00:15.280 down nine. Jimmy G throws it up for grabs, picked 1:00:15.280 --> 1:00:19.720 by Patrick Peterson. Pittsburgh eighty one yard drive. This is 1:00:19.720 --> 1:00:22.680 where they extend the lead pickets of Friarmuth from thirteen out. 1:00:22.760 --> 1:00:26.200 Twenty three to seven Pittsburgh three point fifty six left, 1:00:27.000 --> 1:00:29.160 Raiders fourth and five at the Pittsburgh twenty. That was 1:00:29.160 --> 1:00:30.600 in the third quarter, by the way. Then in the 1:00:30.600 --> 1:00:33.439 fourth quarter, Raiders fourth and five at the Pittsburgh twenty two, 1:00:33.800 --> 1:00:37.560 thirteen to thirteen left. You're down twenty three to seven. 1:00:37.600 --> 1:00:40.360 You need two scores of eight. Jimmy G incomplete intended 1:00:40.360 --> 1:00:43.560 for Jacoby Myers. Pittsburgh three and out, though Raiders aided 1:00:43.600 --> 1:00:46.520 by a questionable roughing. The passer call on Minka Fitzpatrick 1:00:46.880 --> 1:00:49.240 that would have forced a fourth down very questionable. He 1:00:49.280 --> 1:00:51.560 hit the shoulder first. Three plays later, third and goal 1:00:51.600 --> 1:00:54.560 to the Pittsburgh won garoppolo to DeVante twenty three to thirteen, 1:00:54.720 --> 1:00:57.560 two point conversion from the one after a PI Jimmy 1:00:57.560 --> 1:01:00.000 g to Michael Mayer twenty three to twenty three to five, 1:01:00.840 --> 1:01:04.240 five point forty one left Pittsburgh three and out, four 1:01:04.440 --> 1:01:07.320 thirty five left, so the Raiders get the ball at 1:01:07.360 --> 1:01:10.520 their own forty eight, down eight. They get to fourth 1:01:10.600 --> 1:01:12.440 and one at the Pittsburgh twenty five with three point 1:01:12.440 --> 1:01:18.840 fifteen left. Kelly and Josh McDaniels going forward on fourth 1:01:18.880 --> 1:01:21.520 and one, there's a snap in fraction, so it moves 1:01:21.520 --> 1:01:24.120 it back to fourth and six. You're down eight, there's 1:01:24.120 --> 1:01:28.760 three fifteen left. McDaniels inexplicably then lines his team up 1:01:28.760 --> 1:01:31.320 for a field goal, because Kelly, if you can cut 1:01:31.320 --> 1:01:33.800 a one score game to a one score game at 1:01:33.800 --> 1:01:35.920 that point, you are a nuts if you don't go 1:01:36.000 --> 1:01:39.720 for that opportunity. He then gets bailed out by a 1:01:39.840 --> 1:01:42.760 leverage call on the Steelers Yeah wow, and gets it 1:01:42.800 --> 1:01:45.280 to fourth and then, so the Raiders get the automatic 1:01:45.280 --> 1:01:45.800 first down. 1:01:46.160 --> 1:01:47.760 Then they get it to fourth and. 1:01:47.720 --> 1:01:51.280 Four at the Pittsburgh eight with two twenty five left, 1:01:51.560 --> 1:01:54.520 They're down eight. They have all three of their timeouts 1:01:54.520 --> 1:01:59.280 and the two minute warning left, and McDaniels still decides 1:01:59.720 --> 1:02:03.400 to kick a Carlson twenty six yard field goal to 1:02:03.520 --> 1:02:07.240 cut it to twenty three to eighteen. I was like, 1:02:07.600 --> 1:02:11.360 it was I couldn't even speak, like, is this real? 1:02:11.520 --> 1:02:13.600 No idea? Is this joke? Is this happening? 1:02:14.360 --> 1:02:16.360 By the way, I mean, your offense has been so good. 1:02:16.480 --> 1:02:18.600 I mean, you just know you're gonna get another chance 1:02:18.640 --> 1:02:18.880 at it. 1:02:19.360 --> 1:02:21.080 I mean, let me be fair. Let me go back 1:02:21.080 --> 1:02:23.360 to Seth Walder. Since we gave the you know, he 1:02:23.400 --> 1:02:25.600 said Brandon Staley made the right decision. Well what about 1:02:25.600 --> 1:02:29.520 this one? Noope, on this one, he says. Wrong, as 1:02:29.560 --> 1:02:32.360 we all knew instinctively, Raiders kicking field goal on fourth 1:02:32.360 --> 1:02:35.160 and fourth the Pittsburgh gate. If you go forth there, 1:02:35.240 --> 1:02:37.600 it's fifteen point eight percent chance to win. If you 1:02:37.720 --> 1:02:40.280 kick it, you've reduced your win probability to ten point 1:02:40.320 --> 1:02:42.479 two percent. That's a big air And on all people 1:02:42.480 --> 1:02:44.080 are gonna be like, that's only five percent. It's gotta 1:02:44.080 --> 1:02:46.439 be way more than that. According to Walder, a big 1:02:46.480 --> 1:02:49.400 air five percent is a huge error in the moka there, 1:02:49.600 --> 1:02:52.160 like if you drop it down. What is this from optastats? 1:02:52.280 --> 1:02:54.720 Since the two point conversion was adopted in nineteen ninety four, 1:02:54.760 --> 1:02:57.360 the Raiders are the only NFL team to attempt a 1:02:57.360 --> 1:03:00.439 field goal in the last three minutes of the fourth quarter, 1:03:00.640 --> 1:03:03.400 went down by exactly eight points with less than five 1:03:03.480 --> 1:03:06.880 yards to go for a first down or touchdown. It's incredible, 1:03:06.920 --> 1:03:10.240 it is. It's incredible. And of course what ensued, what 1:03:10.360 --> 1:03:13.439 happened after that, you could almost predict it, right, They've 1:03:13.440 --> 1:03:15.320 got their three timeouts to the two minute warning. They're 1:03:15.360 --> 1:03:19.920 only down, they're down five. Now, it's like, but you know, 1:03:19.920 --> 1:03:22.000 they don't stop the Steelers stealers get the first down. 1:03:22.080 --> 1:03:23.840 Not quite the ball game, but really the ball game 1:03:23.880 --> 1:03:25.880 is the Raiders got the ball back after a muff 1:03:25.960 --> 1:03:28.920 with twelve seconds left, back at their own fifteen and 1:03:28.960 --> 1:03:32.160 of course then Jimmy g promptly picked by Levi Wallace. 1:03:32.360 --> 1:03:35.400 So what Josh Daniels ultimately did there, let's distill it. 1:03:35.840 --> 1:03:39.400 He traded a fourth and four for a fourth and 1:03:39.520 --> 1:03:43.760 eighty five. That's what he did. That's exactly what he diak, 1:03:43.840 --> 1:03:46.840 but he did. Yeah, it's exactly what he did. Pick 1:03:46.840 --> 1:03:48.840 It ends up sixteen of twenty eight for two thirty five, 1:03:48.880 --> 1:03:49.840 two touchdowns, no picks. 1:03:49.840 --> 1:03:50.520 He was sacked once. 1:03:50.800 --> 1:03:53.080 These Steelers were plus three and turnovers that led directly 1:03:53.080 --> 1:03:55.120 to plus ten Pittsburgh net points. 1:03:55.320 --> 1:03:56.840 Yeah, you always got a love with you when you've 1:03:56.880 --> 1:03:58.840 got money online. Because I didn't involved in this game 1:03:58.920 --> 1:04:01.200 until it hit three and I was like, really, we're 1:04:01.240 --> 1:04:04.479 going three. I gotta I gotta take Steelers plus three. 1:04:04.560 --> 1:04:06.600 So you know you're doing the little math in your head, right, 1:04:06.600 --> 1:04:08.840 You're like, okay, so we're gonna down eight, Okay, we're 1:04:08.840 --> 1:04:10.840 gonna go here. They gotta go for two and then 1:04:10.880 --> 1:04:12.640 I'm catching three. So where are we gonna be going 1:04:12.640 --> 1:04:13.160 to overtime? 1:04:13.360 --> 1:04:14.960 Oh? Oh wait, they're kicking a field goal? 1:04:15.040 --> 1:04:16.040 Why are they kicked? 1:04:16.040 --> 1:04:18.560 Oh okay, yeah, go go take the field goal. That 1:04:18.720 --> 1:04:22.280 was That was one of those moments that I think 1:04:22.440 --> 1:04:27.040 the entire nation shared where I if they could track 1:04:27.520 --> 1:04:31.040 the spike in texts that happened at that moment where 1:04:31.040 --> 1:04:34.720 everyone was saying like any variation of is he for real? Yeah? 1:04:34.800 --> 1:04:38.440 Is he crazy? Is this a joke? Like it's unbelievable. 1:04:38.520 --> 1:04:40.160 Who are they playing, Pittsburg? Who are they playing? 1:04:40.280 --> 1:04:40.440 Uh? 1:04:40.560 --> 1:04:43.160 The Steelers at Texans at the Texans. The Texans are 1:04:43.160 --> 1:04:45.880 one and two. Texans, get off the schneid. Good for Demico, 1:04:46.000 --> 1:04:50.000 Ryans and the Texans for beating the Jaguars survivor carnage. Aside, 1:04:50.360 --> 1:04:54.360 c J. Stroud twenty of thirty for two eighty two touchdowns, 1:04:54.440 --> 1:04:56.680 no picks. He was not say he's the first quarterback 1:04:56.680 --> 1:05:00.960 in NFL history to have at least nine hundred passing yards, 1:05:01.480 --> 1:05:04.400 four past touchdowns and zero picks in his first three 1:05:04.400 --> 1:05:07.840 career stats starts. Rather, according to ESPN Stats and Information, 1:05:08.480 --> 1:05:12.520 Dell five for on touch receiving, Houston was plus two 1:05:12.520 --> 1:05:15.280 and turnovers that led to plus six net Texans points 1:05:15.280 --> 1:05:18.560 in that game against Jacksonville. I will say Pittsburgh will 1:05:18.600 --> 1:05:21.320 be favored in their first game of the year by 1:05:21.400 --> 1:05:24.680 three at Houston right out draft Kings it is three 1:05:24.680 --> 1:05:25.680 and a half. Everywhere else? 1:05:25.720 --> 1:05:26.200 Who is three? 1:05:26.240 --> 1:05:29.000 Though? Okay, yeah, that seems about right. That would seem 1:05:29.000 --> 1:05:30.480 like a not a hard one to make. Okay, how 1:05:30.520 --> 1:05:33.960 many games we have left here? One, two, three, four, five? 1:05:34.080 --> 1:05:36.280 Oh my god, all right, we'll get to five more games? 1:05:37.040 --> 1:05:41.760 So far? What do you like best Vikings? But that's it. 1:05:41.800 --> 1:05:43.600 I played the Viting I haven't played. I've bet up 1:05:43.600 --> 1:05:45.480 all all year, Gil, Come on, I've held out for 1:05:45.520 --> 1:05:46.120 three weeks. 1:05:46.560 --> 1:05:48.280 Finally gotta get it on of the vikings this week, 1:05:48.320 --> 1:05:55.840 I'm gonna say Vikings, Browns and Jaguars, Vikings, Browns and Jaguars. 1:05:56.760 --> 1:05:59.440 I mean, Chicago three and a half is ridiculous, but 1:05:59.440 --> 1:06:03.000 I'm not running bet that. I like the jag sidn too. 1:06:03.040 --> 1:06:04.600 I don't know if I'm gonna end up with a bet. 1:06:04.480 --> 1:06:04.920 On it or not. 1:06:05.120 --> 1:06:08.000 All right, five more games to get to guessing lines. 1:06:08.000 --> 1:06:13.800 Week four Numbers game Vsent the Sports Betting Network. We 1:06:13.840 --> 1:06:17.240 get tweets at beating the book Trenton Stan Hope, please 1:06:17.280 --> 1:06:19.520 explain to me how this isn't a Max bet. Oh 1:06:19.520 --> 1:06:21.720 he wants a Puka Nakua over five and a half 1:06:22.080 --> 1:06:25.560 receptions tonight. I like it. I do like it. Mills 1:06:26.080 --> 1:06:28.919 at win this, John, he says, curious, Why why aren't 1:06:28.960 --> 1:06:32.040 we seeing odds on brock Purty comeback Player of the Year. 1:06:32.160 --> 1:06:34.360 He's three and zero nine months after being knocked out 1:06:34.720 --> 1:06:37.120 of the NFC Championship game. In six months since UCL 1:06:37.160 --> 1:06:39.680 repair Niners look like they win fourteen plus games. Isn't 1:06:39.680 --> 1:06:41.480 this the very definition of the award? 1:06:41.840 --> 1:06:42.240 Mills? 1:06:43.160 --> 1:06:45.240 I love you man with all due respect, but he 1:06:45.360 --> 1:06:48.560 was seven to zero in the regular season, and another 1:06:48.560 --> 1:06:52.840 guy almost died on the field. So yeah, you can't 1:06:52.840 --> 1:06:55.000 really consider a comeback Player of the Year. 1:06:54.880 --> 1:06:56.560 A guy who got hurt in the playoffs that is 1:06:56.960 --> 1:06:58.360 not currently up a draft. 1:06:58.480 --> 1:07:00.680 Yeah, it's interesting. Jeff Schwartz, what is the not that? 1:07:00.760 --> 1:07:03.040 Jeff Schwartz? Another Jeff Schwartz, this one with a J. 1:07:03.280 --> 1:07:05.120 What is the over under for a number of Plinko 1:07:05.160 --> 1:07:07.040 games in the NFL each weekend? I counted three this 1:07:07.040 --> 1:07:10.480 past week, New Orleans, Green Bay, Chargers, Minnesota, Indianapolis Baltimore. 1:07:10.520 --> 1:07:12.960 Seems low. We could still get one or two tonight though, 1:07:13.000 --> 1:07:16.880 for sure. Yeah. Yeah, and indian Account Indianapolis Baltimore was 1:07:17.160 --> 1:07:22.680 such plinko. Yeah, all of that on Feby's Famato, he 1:07:22.680 --> 1:07:24.760 says me at the Dennis listening to Mike Greenberg and 1:07:24.840 --> 1:07:27.760 some ESPN. I'll say, guy, he used a different term 1:07:27.800 --> 1:07:31.440 guessing lines. Know your plays, he says. Matthew Mayberry Kamara 1:07:31.520 --> 1:07:33.160 will be back next week for the Saints. Might be 1:07:33.160 --> 1:07:35.520 why the number is bumped slightly. It's a good point. Yeah, yeap, 1:07:35.640 --> 1:07:40.240 good point. And this from Tony Farmer game, Tony Farmer, 1:07:40.280 --> 1:07:44.240 I agree, boss, I agree. Boswell has been underrated over 1:07:44.240 --> 1:07:46.200 the years, but he was pretty bad last season twenty 1:07:46.280 --> 1:07:49.080 for twenty eight. That good point. Michael Burns Staley probably 1:07:49.080 --> 1:07:50.400 made the right call by going, but he called the 1:07:50.400 --> 1:07:52.080 wrong play. They couldn't run the ball at all the 1:07:52.080 --> 1:07:54.640 whole game. Pass bass bass, my god. Yep, I mentioned 1:07:54.640 --> 1:07:57.720 that by high sell low. You know, after five minutes 1:07:57.760 --> 1:07:59.600 of trying to figure out what McDaniels was doing kicking 1:07:59.640 --> 1:08:01.360 the most wears field goal I've seen in years. The 1:08:01.360 --> 1:08:04.520 most underrated part was Collinsworth in Tarrico trying to explain 1:08:04.560 --> 1:08:06.480 it to the audience. They'd make it a few seconds 1:08:06.520 --> 1:08:08.760 into the explanation and then start trailing off because it 1:08:08.760 --> 1:08:11.760 didn't make any sense during any of the four times 1:08:11.760 --> 1:08:16.559 they tried classic classic NFL. It's so true, man, they 1:08:16.560 --> 1:08:19.000 were like Collinsworth was trying to figure it out. He's like, 1:08:19.720 --> 1:08:22.559 I would have gone for it. Here he was trying 1:08:22.560 --> 1:08:26.200 to be polite. I mean I would have gone for it. Yep. 1:08:27.240 --> 1:08:28.160 All right, what's next? 1:08:28.360 --> 1:08:31.040 Oh, those same Raiders Raiders at Chargers. 1:08:31.160 --> 1:08:33.200 Jimmy g was twenty eight to forty four and defeat 1:08:33.200 --> 1:08:35.000 three twenty four two touchdowns, three picks. 1:08:35.040 --> 1:08:36.080 He was sacked four times. 1:08:36.360 --> 1:08:41.799 Davante thirteen for one seventy two two touchdowns on twenty targets. 1:08:41.960 --> 1:08:45.240 By the way, after the game, he was not happy. 1:08:45.760 --> 1:08:46.400 Not happy. 1:08:46.439 --> 1:08:50.000 How is like, how are there not multiple teams lining 1:08:50.080 --> 1:08:51.639 up to try to trade for him? Right? 1:08:51.760 --> 1:08:53.920 Like? He is so good, so good. 1:08:54.360 --> 1:08:56.280 It is hard to look that good at wide receiver 1:08:56.320 --> 1:08:57.719 when the rest of your team is this bad. 1:08:58.200 --> 1:09:00.639 He yeah, it was basically the tone, I don't want 1:09:00.640 --> 1:09:02.920 to say anything wrong here, but like I'm not here 1:09:02.960 --> 1:09:06.160 to be patient, you know. Basically it was the Raiders 1:09:06.160 --> 1:09:08.720 were minus three and turnovers that led directly to ten 1:09:08.880 --> 1:09:12.960 plus ten Pittsburgh net points the Chargers, who of course 1:09:13.040 --> 1:09:19.000 won that epic Chargers Vikings on brand duel. All three 1:09:19.040 --> 1:09:21.760 games this season decided by four points or fewer. So 1:09:22.080 --> 1:09:27.799 Chargers Herbert forty for forty seven for four h five 1:09:28.320 --> 1:09:33.240 three touchdowns, no picks, He sack ones. Keenan Allen, you 1:09:33.280 --> 1:09:37.240 think DeVante's numbers were good eighteen for two fifteen on 1:09:37.280 --> 1:09:40.760 twenty targets. Williams seven for one to twenty one in 1:09:40.800 --> 1:09:42.720 a touchdown. He also got hurt, and as I said, 1:09:42.720 --> 1:09:45.160 both teams, the Vikings and the Chargers, each had exactly 1:09:45.160 --> 1:09:47.800 four hundred and seventy five total yards. The Chargers, of course, 1:09:47.800 --> 1:09:49.840 twelve penalties for ninety four yards because you got to 1:09:49.880 --> 1:09:51.320 throw those in the mix when you're talking about the 1:09:51.360 --> 1:09:53.439 charge of course, Yeah, Raiders at Chargers. I put the 1:09:53.479 --> 1:09:55.519 Chargers in no man's land at minus five and a half. 1:09:55.680 --> 1:09:59.479 Yeah, you're close. It's believe four and a half still everywhere. Yeah, 1:09:59.479 --> 1:10:01.720 you're about four and half almost everywhere. What if I've 1:10:01.720 --> 1:10:03.680 been the most awful that the Bears, I've been the 1:10:03.680 --> 1:10:04.240 most off on. 1:10:04.400 --> 1:10:06.640 It was the Jacks. Didn't you have the and a 1:10:06.680 --> 1:10:07.760 half or something on the Jacks? 1:10:07.840 --> 1:10:10.639 Yeah? Yeah, I think it was that the dude Mike 1:10:10.680 --> 1:10:14.160 Williams knee injury, Like this kills me. We talked about 1:10:14.200 --> 1:10:16.880 it so much preseason, but like, these guys can't have 1:10:16.920 --> 1:10:19.040 a season where both these wide receivers are healthy. 1:10:19.080 --> 1:10:20.840 Yeah, I'll be honest. What my exact thought was when 1:10:20.880 --> 1:10:23.040 Mike Williams got hurt, Like if I was a family 1:10:23.080 --> 1:10:24.840 member at that point, I would put my arm around 1:10:24.880 --> 1:10:26.880 him and I'd be like, maybe we shouldn't do this. 1:10:27.360 --> 1:10:29.640 It's gotta be getting tough. I mean for him, but 1:10:29.840 --> 1:10:31.960 I mean really both of them, him and Keenan Allen. Right, 1:10:31.960 --> 1:10:34.400 it's like every year one of the guys, if not 1:10:34.520 --> 1:10:35.040 both of them. 1:10:35.040 --> 1:10:36.360 It's incredible, all right. 1:10:36.439 --> 1:10:38.040 Moving on, we are in the late window now, four 1:10:38.120 --> 1:10:40.600 twenty five Eastern Patriots at Cowboys. 1:10:40.640 --> 1:10:43.040 The Raiders charges game was four five years. Oh, there's 1:10:43.080 --> 1:10:45.519 actually games we haven't gotten to. Patriots, the one and 1:10:45.560 --> 1:10:49.200 two Patriots they get off the schneid Dallas two and 1:10:49.280 --> 1:10:53.360 one they lose to the Cardinals. Patriots have now beaten 1:10:53.360 --> 1:10:56.639 the Jets fifteen times in a row. So there's that. 1:10:57.160 --> 1:10:59.680 The last Jets quarterback to beat the Patriots, and I 1:10:59.680 --> 1:11:06.040 guess it's Mark Sanchez Ryan Fitzpatrick. Twenty fifteen. Patriots were 1:11:06.120 --> 1:11:08.559 up three to nothing, Mac Jones to Faroh Brown in 1:11:08.600 --> 1:11:12.280 the second quarter, fifty eight yards, ten to nothing Patriots. 1:11:12.520 --> 1:11:14.880 To that point in the game, We're talking eleven forty 1:11:14.960 --> 1:11:18.000 nine left in the second quarter, the Jets had minus 1:11:18.040 --> 1:11:21.200 one total yards and one first down. In fact, say good, 1:11:21.320 --> 1:11:25.160 the Jets first five possessions, they had five punts and 1:11:25.320 --> 1:11:30.240 six yards. Is that better? That is an awesome. 1:11:30.439 --> 1:11:32.320 Yeah, they traded punts. 1:11:32.400 --> 1:11:34.360 Zerline actually made a fifty two yard field goal to 1:11:34.400 --> 1:11:36.120 cut it to ten to three with just over a 1:11:36.160 --> 1:11:38.880 minute left in the second quarter. Ryland missed a fifty 1:11:38.920 --> 1:11:41.240 seven yarder at the end of the half, so the 1:11:41.280 --> 1:11:45.799 Patriots are only up a score, and the halftime stats 1:11:45.800 --> 1:11:50.200 on Wilson four of ten for twenty nine. I'll do 1:11:50.200 --> 1:11:52.120 the math for you. That's two point nine yards per attempt, 1:11:52.240 --> 1:11:54.720 no touchdowns, no Picksy was sacked twice. The Jets had 1:11:54.880 --> 1:11:57.519 three first downs at the half, they were one of 1:11:57.520 --> 1:12:00.000 eight on third down, and they had thirty nine total yards. 1:12:00.240 --> 1:12:05.000 They were out gained two sixteen to thirty nine in 1:12:05.040 --> 1:12:08.240 the first half, and the Patriots only led ten to three. 1:12:08.360 --> 1:12:09.280 And I had I'm back. 1:12:09.160 --> 1:12:10.840 In the Patriots. I'm like, you gotta be kidding me. 1:12:10.960 --> 1:12:12.040 You cannot mess this up. 1:12:12.120 --> 1:12:12.280 Yep. 1:12:13.280 --> 1:12:15.679 Third in the contest, and I had him in the contest. 1:12:15.720 --> 1:12:17.720 Chad Ryland kicked a fifty one yard field goal for 1:12:17.720 --> 1:12:20.160 New England put the Patriots up thirteen to three. Ten 1:12:20.200 --> 1:12:23.080 twenty left, and the third quarter teams traded punt three times. 1:12:23.640 --> 1:12:25.360 Then fourth quarter the Jets all of a sudden win 1:12:25.400 --> 1:12:27.519 eighty seven yards more yards and they had gained all 1:12:27.560 --> 1:12:29.600 game to that point, helped by a PI in the 1:12:29.680 --> 1:12:32.640 end zone Nick Bowden from one thirteen to ten Patriots, 1:12:32.760 --> 1:12:34.519 five twenty four left. It's only a three point game, 1:12:34.600 --> 1:12:36.280 and then the Pats are forced to punt. Jets are 1:12:36.320 --> 1:12:38.240 down three. They started their own ten with two forty 1:12:38.240 --> 1:12:41.200 four left. They can win this. They have all three timeouts. 1:12:41.240 --> 1:12:43.840 And then I remember ohed Zach Wilson never mind third 1:12:43.840 --> 1:12:46.280 and fifteen at their own five with two twenty seven left, 1:12:46.280 --> 1:12:48.679 Wilson sacked in the end zone by Matthew John Safety, 1:12:48.720 --> 1:12:50.880 fifteen to ten Patriots. Oh, surely they're gonna coast here. 1:12:50.960 --> 1:12:52.720 Put the Patriots three and out again because the Jets 1:12:52.800 --> 1:12:55.360 defense is awesome. Jeff gets the Jets get the ball 1:12:55.400 --> 1:12:57.120 back with one forty three left at their own forty 1:12:57.120 --> 1:12:59.800 five great field position fifty five yards. They're gonna win this. 1:13:01.000 --> 1:13:05.240 Uh No, incomplete, incomplete, incomplete, and then the dreaded fourth 1:13:05.280 --> 1:13:08.280 and ten two yard completion way to go Zach Wilson, 1:13:08.360 --> 1:13:10.600 New England takes over one to nineteen left. Jets have 1:13:10.640 --> 1:13:12.280 two timeouts left. They do get the ball back with 1:13:12.280 --> 1:13:15.400 sixteen seconds left. Wilson to Wilson for a deep play 1:13:15.640 --> 1:13:18.120 and the home clock operator stops the clock with the 1:13:18.160 --> 1:13:20.599 second left at their own forty six after the spike, 1:13:20.720 --> 1:13:22.799 so they actually get a hail Mary chance as a result, 1:13:23.000 --> 1:13:26.120 Wilson to the goal line batted down off of Garrett 1:13:26.120 --> 1:13:29.439 Wilson's shoulder bad Randall Cobb actually gets a hand on 1:13:29.520 --> 1:13:33.320 it down towards the turf. But incomplete ballgame, New England 1:13:33.680 --> 1:13:37.400 fifteen to ten. They crushed them and only one by 1:13:37.560 --> 1:13:40.559 five and held on for dear life Jones fifteen of 1:13:40.560 --> 1:13:42.599 twenty nine for two oh one in the Patriots win, 1:13:42.840 --> 1:13:45.880 Dallas loses to the Cardinals. A lot of survivors out 1:13:45.880 --> 1:13:48.439 with the Cowboys. So was the Jaguars the most, followed 1:13:48.439 --> 1:13:49.879 by the Ravens, followed by the Cowboys. 1:13:50.560 --> 1:13:54.519 Yeah in circa right, every other Yeah, that Cowboys one 1:13:54.600 --> 1:13:55.840 was way more, way more. 1:13:56.400 --> 1:13:59.960 That's correct, That's exactly right. Cowboys trailed three to nothing. 1:14:01.200 --> 1:14:03.599 Then Arizona went seventy eight yards, ending in a James 1:14:03.640 --> 1:14:05.800 Connor five yard touchdown run. It was nine to nothing. 1:14:05.840 --> 1:14:08.559 Arizona two point attempt failed after Dallas offside on the 1:14:08.560 --> 1:14:11.920 pat nine to three. Arizona Cards went seventy five yards. 1:14:12.080 --> 1:14:15.519 Ron Dale Moore with a forty five yard scamper. It 1:14:15.600 --> 1:14:18.719 was fifteen to three Arizona two point conversion fails again 1:14:18.920 --> 1:14:21.519 Dobbs intended for Marquise Brown, So the Cowboys woke up 1:14:21.520 --> 1:14:23.960 at that point. Seventy five yard drive Dak to Rico 1:14:24.120 --> 1:14:27.320 Dowdle out of Southkkilaki. You remember WeGo down le at 1:14:27.320 --> 1:14:30.880 South Carolina, Sure, sure you do. From fifteen out, fifteen 1:14:30.920 --> 1:14:35.240 to ten Arizona five point thirty two left, Prader from 1:14:35.320 --> 1:14:37.760 forty three eighteen to ten Arizona one twenty eight left 1:14:37.760 --> 1:14:39.920 in the second quarter, Cowboys went and then Prader from 1:14:40.040 --> 1:14:43.479 sixty two His career long was sixty four a decade 1:14:43.520 --> 1:14:47.960 ago in Denver in elevation sixty two twenty one ten 1:14:48.000 --> 1:14:50.439 Arizona at the half, longest field goal of the NFL season, 1:14:50.520 --> 1:14:53.080 And then the second half, Brandon Aubrey hit a twenty 1:14:53.120 --> 1:14:55.640 seven yard to cut of twenty one to thirteen, and 1:14:55.680 --> 1:14:59.280 then you know, Dallas matriculated. They got a fourth and 1:14:59.400 --> 1:15:02.800 three at the Arizona four down eight three h three 1:15:02.880 --> 1:15:05.120 left in the third quarter, they decided to go for it. 1:15:05.240 --> 1:15:08.599 Incomplete pass Dak intended for cd Lamb. It was twenty 1:15:08.640 --> 1:15:11.120 one to thirteen into the fourth quarter. Cowboys had the 1:15:11.120 --> 1:15:13.760 ball again at their own thirty six to start a drive. 1:15:14.080 --> 1:15:17.640 They get to the dreaded first and goal from the ten. Stymied, 1:15:17.920 --> 1:15:19.960 had to settle for an Aubrey twenty six yard field goal. 1:15:20.000 --> 1:15:22.880 It's twenty one to sixteen Arizona, nine to twenty eight left. 1:15:23.600 --> 1:15:25.559 But then the Cards first intended their own twenty four. 1:15:25.600 --> 1:15:28.000 You know what, they learned something from last week when 1:15:28.040 --> 1:15:30.080 they squandered the twenty one point lead to the Giants. 1:15:30.200 --> 1:15:32.479 They kept their foot on the pedal. First play on 1:15:32.520 --> 1:15:35.639 the ensuing drive Dobbs to Michael Wilson for sixty nine, 1:15:35.640 --> 1:15:38.240 three plays later to marquise from two out. Twenty eight 1:15:38.280 --> 1:15:41.479 to sixteen Arizona, our more survivors getting knocked out. I 1:15:41.520 --> 1:15:43.960 put it, yes, Dallas takes forever, By the way, that 1:15:44.000 --> 1:15:46.400 was also weird. Dallas took forever to matriculate the ball 1:15:46.439 --> 1:15:49.880 down the field, down twelve. They end up third and 1:15:49.920 --> 1:15:52.840 goal at the six with three zero five left. Dak 1:15:52.920 --> 1:15:56.200 picked by Kazira White in the end zone. That's it. Ballgame, 1:15:56.360 --> 1:15:59.400 twenty eight to sixteen Arizona DAK twenty five or forty 1:15:59.400 --> 1:16:01.479 for two to forty nine, one touchdown, one pick. You 1:16:01.520 --> 1:16:03.800 sacked twice Pollard twenty three for one to twenty two. 1:16:04.080 --> 1:16:06.880 I will say New England and Dallas Dallas by five 1:16:06.920 --> 1:16:10.439 and a half. I'm big on the No man's land. Wow. 1:16:10.479 --> 1:16:13.920 Okay, this is Dallas seven painted Dallas seven. Everywhere. 1:16:14.040 --> 1:16:18.040 Looks like it could come off the cheap sevens out there, 1:16:18.560 --> 1:16:20.240 come off down to the six PA. Yeah, it looks 1:16:20.280 --> 1:16:23.200 like it could come my way. Wow, the full seven 1:16:23.240 --> 1:16:27.000 of interesting. Okay, two more games, three more games the 1:16:27.080 --> 1:16:30.320 other two three and three Yeah, three including the primetime games. 1:16:31.040 --> 1:16:33.000 Next numbers game Visa, the Sports Betting. 1:16:32.800 --> 1:16:40.040 Network Numbers game on Visa, the Sports Betting Network. 1:16:39.720 --> 1:16:41.800 Put the Visa experts to work for you this football season. 1:16:41.840 --> 1:16:44.400 To start betting smarter with the Vson Pro subscription, sign 1:16:44.479 --> 1:16:47.200 up now and say forty percent off our football season 1:16:47.240 --> 1:16:50.960 special when you use promo code a n G that's 1:16:50.960 --> 1:16:52.840 for a numbers game. Get access to everything we do 1:16:52.880 --> 1:16:55.160 this football season, including our daily best bets with the 1:16:55.200 --> 1:16:57.120 leaderboard to see which Visa expert has the hot hand, 1:16:57.240 --> 1:16:58.800 betting splits to show you where the money and bets 1:16:58.840 --> 1:17:01.360 are moving for every game, plus betting systems, premium analysis, 1:17:01.360 --> 1:17:03.559 and twenty four to seven video access. Remember to use 1:17:03.600 --> 1:17:06.559 promo code a n G to say forty percent when 1:17:06.560 --> 1:17:09.360 you sign up on a football season special today. Sign 1:17:09.400 --> 1:17:12.760 up today at vsen dot com slash subscribe Kelly. My 1:17:13.080 --> 1:17:17.639 five season long bets in the NFL. Giants alt season 1:17:17.680 --> 1:17:20.000 win total under six and a half plus one eighty five, 1:17:20.560 --> 1:17:23.960 off to a good start, Commanders alt high season win 1:17:24.040 --> 1:17:26.840 totals over seven and a half plus one ninety I 1:17:26.840 --> 1:17:28.800 mean off to a good start banked wins. But yeah, 1:17:28.840 --> 1:17:30.599 I don't expect it at this point, but we'll see. 1:17:30.760 --> 1:17:32.280 All they gotta do is get to eight. That's a 1:17:32.320 --> 1:17:34.639 tough tea. That's a tough one. You got rocked yesterday. 1:17:34.680 --> 1:17:35.320 But two and one. 1:17:35.520 --> 1:17:38.400 Last team to record first win Panthers fifteen to one, Baby, 1:17:38.400 --> 1:17:43.320 come on. Matt Lafleur, coach of the year plus fifteen 1:17:43.400 --> 1:17:46.599 sixty one. So far, so good. Two and one Packers 1:17:46.960 --> 1:17:50.960 Matt Eberflus, first NFL head coach fired plus fifteen nineteen. 1:17:51.840 --> 1:17:55.479 Looking pretty good, looking pretty good? Hi, the Panthers never 1:17:55.560 --> 1:17:57.880 flew slack. I think I'm looking pretty good on most 1:17:57.920 --> 1:18:01.679 of them now. On the other hand, everything I say 1:18:01.680 --> 1:18:05.000 in baseball goes to absolute crapola as soon as I 1:18:05.000 --> 1:18:07.680 say it. We'll get into that tomorrow because we have 1:18:07.760 --> 1:18:08.880 more air lines to guess. 1:18:09.080 --> 1:18:12.480 Yeah, Sunday four to twenty five, Eastern Cardinals at Niners. 1:18:12.560 --> 1:18:15.880 Cardinals at Niners, that's a that's a that's an afternoon game. Still, Oh, 1:18:15.960 --> 1:18:18.920 Cardinals at Niners. Well, if you're not in circa, this 1:18:19.040 --> 1:18:22.280 is the obvious uh survivor play I guess of the week. 1:18:22.520 --> 1:18:24.559 But in circle we can't use this. By the way, 1:18:24.640 --> 1:18:26.320 just thinking about all these games we went through, I 1:18:26.360 --> 1:18:30.920 don't see one slam dunk survivor play good God, Arizona's 1:18:30.920 --> 1:18:33.519 we just talked about. Beats the Cowboys. Dobbs Josh Dobbs 1:18:33.640 --> 1:18:37.519 seventeen for twenty one nine, one touchdown, No Pixie was 1:18:37.560 --> 1:18:40.360 sacked twice, six carries for fifty five yards, James Connor 1:18:40.400 --> 1:18:42.800 fourteen carries for ninety eight yards, and the touchdowns. As 1:18:42.800 --> 1:18:45.760 I said earlier, the Cardinals not only could be three 1:18:45.840 --> 1:18:48.799 and oh, perhaps they should be three and zero. Handed 1:18:48.800 --> 1:18:52.120 that game to Washington in week one, squandered the twenty 1:18:52.160 --> 1:18:53.760 one point lead against the Giants in Week two and 1:18:53.800 --> 1:18:55.720 beat the Cowboys. That was the thing about that win 1:18:55.760 --> 1:18:58.800 over the Cowboys. It wasn't like the It was a 1:18:58.840 --> 1:19:01.840 turnover fest. Usually when a team wins a game and 1:19:01.920 --> 1:19:04.920 upsets another team like that, it's based on turnovers. The 1:19:04.960 --> 1:19:07.400 Cardinals just stared him in the face, punched him in 1:19:07.400 --> 1:19:10.920 the mouth, whatever whatever metaphor you want to use. And 1:19:11.000 --> 1:19:14.320 San Francisco extra rest coming off their win on Thursday 1:19:14.400 --> 1:19:15.200 night over the Giants. 1:19:15.240 --> 1:19:17.080 But I thought what you said earlier was pigd too. 1:19:17.479 --> 1:19:19.439 The Cardinals team they got up in like last week. 1:19:19.479 --> 1:19:21.519 They didn't just settle and let let this thing get 1:19:21.560 --> 1:19:23.439 away from him. The yeah, yeah, they kept their foot down. 1:19:23.600 --> 1:19:25.400 I put it between ten and fourteen, I said, San 1:19:25.400 --> 1:19:26.920 Francisco minus twelve and a half. 1:19:27.600 --> 1:19:32.200 Yeah, this is Niners. Fourteen is fourteen, Yeah, fourteen at 1:19:32.280 --> 1:19:34.320 Draft King, it's fourteen everywhere. 1:19:34.400 --> 1:19:37.400 Yeah. Arizona season win total was what three and a 1:19:37.400 --> 1:19:41.920 half before that game and a half? Yeah, all right. 1:19:41.960 --> 1:19:45.719 Sunday Night Chiefs at Jets. Sunday Night Football Chiefs at Jets, 1:19:45.760 --> 1:19:47.920 the two and one Chiefs the one and two Jets. 1:19:48.160 --> 1:19:51.599 Patrick Mahomes and victory yesterday against the Bears, twenty four 1:19:51.680 --> 1:19:54.719 of thirty three for two seventy two, three touchdowns, no picks. 1:19:55.120 --> 1:19:57.000 He was not sad before he was taken out of 1:19:57.000 --> 1:19:58.840 the game, Blaine Gabbard ended up three of five for 1:19:58.920 --> 1:20:03.080 thirty one and two picks. Uh. Kelsey seven catches for 1:20:03.240 --> 1:20:05.720 sixty nine yards and a touchdown. How great were the 1:20:05.760 --> 1:20:07.960 announcers who was doing that? Was that Iron Eagle or 1:20:07.960 --> 1:20:08.719 was it somebody else. 1:20:08.760 --> 1:20:09.960 Got the wrong games on the air? 1:20:11.000 --> 1:20:13.000 They were like, it wasn't Iron Eagle, it was whoever. 1:20:13.000 --> 1:20:16.599 The color guy was like Taylor Swift is uh, friends 1:20:16.640 --> 1:20:21.120 with the Kelsey family. They didn't know how to phrase it. Yeah, 1:20:21.439 --> 1:20:24.360 friends with the Kelsey family. Yeah, that's it. We don't 1:20:24.400 --> 1:20:25.479 have enough time to talking about it now. 1:20:25.520 --> 1:20:27.559 But if we are talking like date two day three, 1:20:27.600 --> 1:20:29.720 sitting with your bomb up in the skybox, that's a 1:20:29.960 --> 1:20:30.639 that's a. 1:20:30.600 --> 1:20:34.000 Move pretty serious. Held Chicago to eleven first downs the 1:20:34.040 --> 1:20:36.000 Chiefs did. They outgained him four fifty six to two 1:20:36.000 --> 1:20:39.040 oh three, more points versus Chicago for the Chiefs than 1:20:39.040 --> 1:20:40.960 the Chiefs had scored in their first two games combined 1:20:40.960 --> 1:20:44.960 this year. And then the Jets remember before the season 1:20:44.960 --> 1:20:46.639 with Aaron Rodgers, I said, you look at that those 1:20:46.640 --> 1:20:48.679 first six games. If they if they got a three 1:20:48.680 --> 1:20:50.120 and three, they would take it right now, I said, 1:20:50.120 --> 1:20:52.280 if he gave them true serum and then I said 1:20:52.280 --> 1:20:53.920 when he went down into was Wilson, I was like, 1:20:53.920 --> 1:20:55.639 they'll take the two and four. Well, right now they're 1:20:55.680 --> 1:20:58.519 one and two. They're halfway there. Zach Wilson was eighteen 1:20:58.560 --> 1:21:01.400 of thirty six for one fifty seven in that game, 1:21:01.680 --> 1:21:04.000 four point four yards per attempt, no touchdowns, no pixie 1:21:04.000 --> 1:21:06.639 was stacked three times. As we just documented going through 1:21:06.640 --> 1:21:09.439 that Jets game earlier, those stats look better than his 1:21:09.520 --> 1:21:12.479 actual performance. The Jets ended up with twelve first downs 1:21:12.479 --> 1:21:14.720 one hundred and seventy one total yards. They were out 1:21:14.720 --> 1:21:16.760 gaining three fifty eight to one seventy one. They only 1:21:16.800 --> 1:21:19.960 had thirty eight rushing yards, and afterwards, star wide receiver 1:21:20.040 --> 1:21:23.479 Garrett Wilson upset during a sideline conversation with Zach Wilson, 1:21:23.479 --> 1:21:26.360 an offensive cordated Nathaniel Hackett. He hinted that he's not 1:21:26.400 --> 1:21:29.800 getting the ball enough, but when asked if the Jets 1:21:29.800 --> 1:21:34.559 will change quarterbacks, coach Robert Salas said he's sticking with Wilson, saying, quote, yeah, 1:21:34.560 --> 1:21:37.000 he's fine, that's. 1:21:36.840 --> 1:21:38.479 The quote Garrett Wilson. 1:21:38.600 --> 1:21:40.719 Garret Wilson did it again this week. Then he goes, 1:21:40.960 --> 1:21:43.320 He's who gives us the best chance to win. That's 1:21:43.439 --> 1:21:46.679 basically the cleanest answer I can give you. Oho oh, 1:21:47.240 --> 1:21:49.360 And we found out that like Matt Ryan and Carson 1:21:49.400 --> 1:21:51.760 Wentz each called the Jets to get on the team, 1:21:51.920 --> 1:21:56.599 and they were like, yeah, we're good. Poor Carson Wentz, 1:21:57.120 --> 1:22:00.760 he was like, gonna be an MVP, right, rehappens? 1:22:01.400 --> 1:22:01.599 Really? 1:22:01.760 --> 1:22:04.519 Then they win the Super Bowl without him, they win 1:22:04.560 --> 1:22:07.000 the SUPERROWL without him, and then he's just horrible after that. 1:22:07.000 --> 1:22:11.160 It's just so awful. Kansas City minus seven on the 1:22:11.240 --> 1:22:12.200 road or is it more? 1:22:13.080 --> 1:22:15.479 I said seven? I think the look ahead was seven. 1:22:15.520 --> 1:22:18.759 It is nine now Chiefs and a half. 1:22:19.000 --> 1:22:21.439 It's hard to go two ham against the Jets because 1:22:21.479 --> 1:22:24.320 that defense is so good, so you can't like make 1:22:24.360 --> 1:22:27.880 it crazy full nine. Huh. I don't know that. 1:22:27.960 --> 1:22:30.240 Yeah. I mean I'm not really a seven point teaser guy, 1:22:30.280 --> 1:22:31.960 but man, that would that would fit that? 1:22:32.800 --> 1:22:33.720 Okay? I mean I don't know. 1:22:33.800 --> 1:22:35.280 I don't know how you're trusting much of the I 1:22:35.320 --> 1:22:36.960 mean they can't do anything offense. I hear you on 1:22:37.000 --> 1:22:40.519 the defense, yeah, but yet no, they can't do anything offensively. Yeah, 1:22:40.600 --> 1:22:43.640 So that one's tough, all right. Monday Night Football Seahawks 1:22:43.640 --> 1:22:45.879 at Giants, Seahawks at Giants Seahawks. 1:22:45.920 --> 1:22:48.400 We talked about beat the Panthers GINO twenty three for 1:22:48.439 --> 1:22:50.599 thirty six for two ninety six, one touchdown, one pick, 1:22:50.800 --> 1:22:54.240 sack twice. Kenneth Walker the third Pete Carroll said he 1:22:54.320 --> 1:22:56.200 likes to run the football, likes to establish the run. 1:22:56.200 --> 1:22:59.440 He said, eighteen for ninety seven for Walker, two touchdowns, 1:22:59.439 --> 1:23:01.599 three catches for fifty nine and then dk Metcalf six 1:23:01.640 --> 1:23:03.960 catches for one to twelve. They'll go to the Giants. 1:23:04.160 --> 1:23:06.559 The Giants extra rest after getting beat by the Niners 1:23:06.560 --> 1:23:10.840 on Thursday. I will say Seahawks by three on the road, 1:23:11.240 --> 1:23:12.679 Giants one and a half. 1:23:12.680 --> 1:23:18.360 At DraftKings, Giants won pretty much everywhere else. I see 1:23:18.360 --> 1:23:21.200 one pick them out there. This number coming your. 1:23:21.040 --> 1:23:23.360 Way, though. We have DraftKings line at Seahawks minus one 1:23:23.360 --> 1:23:25.880 and a half. Yeah, it flipped and it flipped to 1:23:25.920 --> 1:23:32.680 the Giants, flipped to the Giants. Oh my goodness, gracious, yeah, 1:23:33.040 --> 1:23:35.479 I am down. You know how I feel about the Giants. 1:23:36.640 --> 1:23:39.600 That's interesting. That's an interesting line. Giants by one and 1:23:39.600 --> 1:23:39.880 a half. 1:23:40.000 --> 1:23:42.120 Huh Yeah, So this open but looks like one and 1:23:42.120 --> 1:23:46.320 a half two most places for Seattle. So alright, show 1:23:46.320 --> 1:23:49.679 a couple questions, we moved three points in the Giants direction. 1:23:50.880 --> 1:23:53.519 I don't understand here. So Parls and I were throwing 1:23:53.560 --> 1:23:57.920 this around yesterday. Oh, John Gooulay tells us it was 1:23:57.960 --> 1:24:00.759 Burke Harden Olson doing that game with the Chiefs yesterday. 1:24:00.760 --> 1:24:03.639 So it was Greg Olsen who was like friends with 1:24:03.680 --> 1:24:08.920 the with the Kelsey family. So if Pearls and I 1:24:08.920 --> 1:24:11.000 were throwing this round because Parl's tasted me yesterday, He's like, 1:24:11.560 --> 1:24:15.519 and he was like, let's rate the horrible performances of 1:24:15.600 --> 1:24:18.120 teams yesterday, like because his point was I guess he 1:24:18.160 --> 1:24:19.760 was trying to make himself feel better about the Jets 1:24:19.800 --> 1:24:22.200 or whatever. He's like, if you go through the games yesterday, 1:24:22.320 --> 1:24:25.479 the Jets weren't even a bottom five performance, he said. 1:24:25.720 --> 1:24:27.360 And I go, okay, is this. 1:24:27.360 --> 1:24:31.000 What Jets fan hoods? This is what Jets did well? 1:24:31.040 --> 1:24:34.080 I said to him, I go, okay, it depends what 1:24:34.120 --> 1:24:37.200 you mean by worst performance, because the Cowboys and the Jags, 1:24:37.200 --> 1:24:41.120 based on expectations, were awful performances, right, but they were 1:24:41.160 --> 1:24:46.240 actually somewhat competent football teams even in defeat. But like, 1:24:47.439 --> 1:24:50.120 if you throw those teams out, then the Jets are 1:24:50.160 --> 1:24:55.520 absolutely bottom five because it goes between the Commodes, the Bears, 1:24:55.720 --> 1:24:59.240 the Broncos, the Titans, the Jets, and the Falcons, like 1:24:59.280 --> 1:25:02.479 there are some almost a quarter of the league was 1:25:02.760 --> 1:25:03.639 just horrible. 1:25:03.680 --> 1:25:06.960 We're just talking about yesterday, just yesterday, just talking about, 1:25:07.240 --> 1:25:10.320 with all apologies to every other team on there, the 1:25:10.320 --> 1:25:13.479 Broncos did get seventy dropped on them, right, Like, I know, 1:25:13.560 --> 1:25:15.679 we know this team, we think this team is bang. 1:25:15.720 --> 1:25:19.080 The Bears are like, hold my bar, but seventy, yes, seventy, 1:25:19.120 --> 1:25:21.240 But the Bears are the Bears are the worst of 1:25:21.280 --> 1:25:23.960 the worst because they just took Mahomes out like they 1:25:23.960 --> 1:25:25.840 could have scored. They could have named their score too. 1:25:26.479 --> 1:25:28.320 The thing with the Broncos again I'll get to is 1:25:28.320 --> 1:25:31.960 like again Sean Payton, just like maybe trying to figure 1:25:31.960 --> 1:25:34.920 out a way to milk clock. I mean that was 1:25:35.080 --> 1:25:38.080 the Dolphins offense is a track meet. I mean it 1:25:38.120 --> 1:25:39.880 was seventy and it could have been more. Could have 1:25:39.920 --> 1:25:41.720 easily have been more. There were eight minutes left of 1:25:41.720 --> 1:25:45.360 the game, right, Yeah, it's tough to choose. The point 1:25:45.400 --> 1:25:48.760 of that conversation is there were so many bad performances 1:25:48.800 --> 1:25:52.160 in the league yesterday. So in the end are my 1:25:52.520 --> 1:25:54.920 first impressions again last week we were sort of perfect 1:25:54.960 --> 1:25:58.160 on first impressions. This week, I would I would say 1:25:58.520 --> 1:26:04.040 the Jags are my first Russian. What were the others? 1:26:04.080 --> 1:26:07.000 Already forgot some of the others we mentioned earlier, Jaggs. 1:26:06.960 --> 1:26:09.960 Jaggs, that was the one you were the most off of. Well, 1:26:10.040 --> 1:26:12.200 that was one I was most off on. But again, 1:26:12.240 --> 1:26:14.160 I'm not running to bet the Bears, even though that 1:26:14.200 --> 1:26:17.480 line was different, because they're the Bears Cleveland. 1:26:17.960 --> 1:26:22.120 Like, I'm surprised that that's as low as it is Cleveland. 1:26:22.240 --> 1:26:27.280 I'm surprised you're surprised about that because anti Deshaun Watson 1:26:27.280 --> 1:26:28.639 and you were very pro Baltimore. 1:26:28.840 --> 1:26:33.400 Yeah, but that defense against Baltimore's offense, like I could 1:26:33.520 --> 1:26:36.040 see them pitching quite the shutout. 1:26:35.680 --> 1:26:38.000 Baltimore still dealing with a ton of injuries, and that 1:26:38.040 --> 1:26:39.760 Cleveland defense is so good. 1:26:39.960 --> 1:26:43.719 Yeah, so there's that. That Seahawks Giants thing is curious 1:26:43.720 --> 1:26:43.920 to me. 1:26:44.000 --> 1:26:47.720 Also, Yeah, I'm with I mean, if anything, I'd only 1:26:47.720 --> 1:26:50.479 be interested in Seattle. So I'm not gonna I'm not 1:26:50.520 --> 1:26:53.599 running to better now, not running bet Ye that's moved 1:26:53.600 --> 1:26:55.800 three points and survivor. 1:26:56.160 --> 1:26:59.599 I have no idea. Am I gonna have to play 1:26:59.600 --> 1:26:59.960 the chart. 1:27:01.240 --> 1:27:03.360 Oh God, God, glad I don't have to make a 1:27:03.479 --> 1:27:04.680 decision on this. 1:27:04.680 --> 1:27:07.160 Sweet Jesus, I think I'm gonna have to play the 1:27:07.240 --> 1:27:10.240 Chargers and one of them at least. Am I gonna 1:27:10.240 --> 1:27:14.639 have to play Pittsburgh. Can't play San Francisco at Circa. Oh, 1:27:14.720 --> 1:27:22.280 we have a week to decide.