WEBVTT - Single Best Idea With Tom Keene: Alicia Levine and Will Kennedy

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, a single best idea,

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<v Speaker 1>like how about a one hour single best idea? Barry

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<v Speaker 1>King Green in today his new book, My Book of

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<v Speaker 1>the Summer of much more on it in the coming weeks,

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<v Speaker 1>but it's absolutely spectacular, two hundred and forty pages from

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<v Speaker 1>our definitive international economists, bouncing off Ken Rogoff last year,

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<v Speaker 1>Ken Green of Berkeley, Money and Borders. It's just a

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<v Speaker 1>fabulous new effort and that will be my book of

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<v Speaker 1>the summer. My interview of the day with that question

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<v Speaker 1>Alicia Levine, b and why is the equity markets reacted

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<v Speaker 1>off of one hundred and nine dollars of Brent crude?

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<v Speaker 1>As we tape, she's with b and why, Alisha Levine.

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<v Speaker 2>We had Ukraine just four short years ago, we had COVID.

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<v Speaker 2>Not geopolitical, but quite a shock to the markets. You know.

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<v Speaker 2>The lesson is, you know, these things get priced out.

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<v Speaker 2>But I am shocked that we're not down at least

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<v Speaker 2>ten percent. And I think coming into the year, we

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<v Speaker 2>thought we could have a year like that anyway, much

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<v Speaker 2>more volatility. We were telling clients, much more volatile year.

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<v Speaker 2>You come in with the twenty two times forward earnings.

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<v Speaker 2>Even if you have earnings up at fifteen percent, like

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<v Speaker 2>you still have some volve built in.

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<v Speaker 1>Alicia Levin there, I want to go through the math

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<v Speaker 1>here of what she and I were talking about. She

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<v Speaker 1>is prodigious quantitative skills. Really no one else like her

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<v Speaker 1>within the strategy game. There's a thing called stochastic, which

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<v Speaker 1>is fancy math talk for point B. And the fact

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<v Speaker 1>is hydrocarbons go up and panic and they turn right

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<v Speaker 1>around and come back down, so you got a pointy top.

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<v Speaker 1>And she and I talked about that, like the certitude. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>there's a war, no big deal, ninety dollars a barrel

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<v Speaker 1>one ten, you know, all the gloom stories out there

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<v Speaker 1>where we're going, and then it lit'tle reverse and this

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<v Speaker 1>really good conversation about that. And every commodity has its

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<v Speaker 1>own character, if you will expert on this is Will

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<v Speaker 1>Kennedy with Stuart Wallace and Justin carro Agan literally building

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<v Speaker 1>the worldwide Bloomberg News combine and commodities. So good now

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<v Speaker 1>he's driving all of our news for ema huge, huge

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<v Speaker 1>position at Bloomberg, one of our most challenging jobs. We

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<v Speaker 1>were so fortunate to get Will Kennedy on at one

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<v Speaker 1>hundred and nine dollars a barrel.

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<v Speaker 3>It just shows I think that the market has been

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<v Speaker 3>a little bit complacent about the impact of the war

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<v Speaker 3>and when they see the headlines today about Israel in

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<v Speaker 3>the US hitting this gats field. Now, this gas field

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<v Speaker 3>will not have a huge impact on international markets. It's

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<v Speaker 3>gas that is used at home in Yvonne. But what

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<v Speaker 3>it does mean is I think EVON will take it

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<v Speaker 3>as a signal that the energy system, the global energy system,

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<v Speaker 3>is fair game. So there's a lot of wary now

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<v Speaker 3>that that means that they will intensify attacks against oil refinemies,

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<v Speaker 3>against oil fields, against export turns, and indeed to concentrate

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<v Speaker 3>on the straight off all moves, and it will just

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<v Speaker 3>mean that the pain that's going through the energy system

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<v Speaker 3>will increase.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, Canada driving all of news for Emma at Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>News just really can't say enough about all of our

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<v Speaker 1>midies term Thank you so much too. Dan Williams and

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<v Speaker 1>Ethan Browner in Tel Aviv, Jumana Verssecchi driving Horizons out

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<v Speaker 1>of Dubai, keeping the coverage going each in every day

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<v Speaker 1>and podcasts run Apple, We're on Spotify and YouTube podcasts

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<v Speaker 1>it's single best idea.