Speaker 1: Check it down, Man Down Man, Thursday morning, October seven,
Speaker 1: Beating the book podcast megapod live from the d Skill Alexander,
Speaker 1: of course, Staples of the show from our home here
Speaker 1: at the day, the vice president Operations and Circuit Sports,
Speaker 1: Derek Steven's conciliary and man all about town, Mike Paul,
Speaker 1: How you doing, Mikey? Great? Great big week for Circule huh.
Speaker 1: We were named the North American Property of the Year
Speaker 1: G two. We first Nevada Casino would ever win the award? Really, yes,
Speaker 1: you beat out Dotties. We beat out in Choctaw in Oklahoma,
Speaker 1: finished second. I by the minor upset. I had Choctaw
Speaker 1: over us, but we got there. And so congratulations to
Speaker 1: Derreck Stevens and everybody to put the property together. Mazle
Speaker 1: to thank you as my mother would say, thank you.
Speaker 1: And then just thirty minutes ago we launched circuits Sports
Speaker 1: in Iowa. We went lives Yeah another you know. I
Speaker 1: was on Tuesday with Ken Miller and Trent Condon on
Speaker 1: k x N O and des Moines and that they
Speaker 1: interviewed about the launch and at the end Trent Condon said,
Speaker 1: I just want to speak for many many megapod listeners, Mike,
Speaker 1: if you could please ask Todd Wishes just to shut
Speaker 1: up and let you in the guests talk Todd your
Speaker 1: your thoughts. I'm not even going to respond to that nonsense.
Speaker 1: People in Iowa obviously are not the wow taking out
Speaker 1: the whole state. That's Todd Wish. That from his mom's
Speaker 1: cork attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, bulletin boards all over the
Speaker 1: cork behind it. Are you doing, Toddy good? I'm doing
Speaker 1: all right. Ladies and gentlemen, are are rotating guests today
Speaker 1: kind enough to join us on the podcast. I don't
Speaker 1: believe he was on the podcast last year, but he's
Speaker 1: been on the pod years ago, two years ago, many
Speaker 1: times before. Professional better half of the Massy Peabody analytics team,
Speaker 1: co founder of unabated, which you can tell us about
Speaker 1: right now. Rufous Peabody, How you do it, man? I'm
Speaker 1: doing well, Gil. I'm excited to actually get some NFL
Speaker 1: knowledge for from some people that actually know how to
Speaker 1: beat the NFL, because I certainly don't. This year. You're
Speaker 1: having a rough time of it. Yeah, I've I've made
Speaker 1: money every Saturday and lost money every Sunday, which is
Speaker 1: not normal for you, right, that's not like a normal thing. Well,
Speaker 1: it feels like, I mean, NFL has gotten harder and
Speaker 1: harder to beat. I bet, and honestly, I bet nfls
Speaker 1: on in college on Monday. Um, actually I got college
Speaker 1: later in the week as well, but but I don't
Speaker 1: bet it on Monday for NFL and probably not betting it.
Speaker 1: So you grab, you you're basically doing the numbers grab
Speaker 1: early in the week, and the COVID era of information
Speaker 1: coming down to the wire. Not interested, not interesting to
Speaker 1: you in terms of making bets waiting late into the week, right,
Speaker 1: I mean, I feel like there's so many people with
Speaker 1: such good data analyzing the NFL out there that you know, myself,
Speaker 1: with you know, only devoting a little bit of time
Speaker 1: to it. It's just not enough. What are you devoting?
Speaker 1: How about in game? Um? You know, I haven't even
Speaker 1: bet second half this year. That's something I always bet.
Speaker 1: I've been doing second half for college football, but my
Speaker 1: server isn't working properly for NFL second half, and I've
Speaker 1: kind of just been like, Okay, I'll get to it
Speaker 1: next week. It's never been the highest thing on my
Speaker 1: list of priorities for some reason you do college football
Speaker 1: second half though. Yeah. I have been witnessed to Rufus
Speaker 1: on a college football Saturday sitting in front of his
Speaker 1: computer back in the day making multiple college football bets
Speaker 1: too much success. That was always a treat. So tell
Speaker 1: us about Unabated. For those who are unfamiliar with Unabated,
Speaker 1: what you do with the Commissioner Sports Betting Captain Jack
Speaker 1: andrews weird. Yeah, I like that title for him, it
Speaker 1: certainly fits. So Unabated is a venture between with myself,
Speaker 1: Captain Jack and um well, Dan fer Grizio and Matthew Snyder.
Speaker 1: Who are We're all out here for G two E
Speaker 1: actually in Vegas. UM, and it is we provide betting
Speaker 1: tools and education for better is. Basically, we want people
Speaker 1: to be able to quantify their opinions, and we have
Speaker 1: products that make you a better better UM alternate line
Speaker 1: pricing tools, UM. We have a season long NFL simulator
Speaker 1: that you can customize with your own power ratings or
Speaker 1: use a bunch of grading systems out there. UM. I
Speaker 1: think it's as specific as quarterback injury probabilities and backup
Speaker 1: quarterback penalty UM. And recently, while we're launching prop tools
Speaker 1: that allow you to come in with your projections for
Speaker 1: a player, like receiving yards receptions and see what that
Speaker 1: distribution looks like. You know, what's the probability of this
Speaker 1: guy gets a hundred yards? What's shila under seventy seven
Speaker 1: and a half minus one forty or you know under
Speaker 1: seventy three and a half minus one ten? Interesting, so so,
Speaker 1: and it's all free at unabated dot com for now,
Speaker 1: for now, unfree, free and unabated. But just an example,
Speaker 1: if if Team A is favorite over Team B by
Speaker 1: seven points, alternate line seven a half eight, eight and a
Speaker 1: a half nine, so on and so forth, it will
Speaker 1: allow you to sort of determine what the best bet
Speaker 1: of the bunches is that one possible application. Yeah, there's
Speaker 1: a compare line school you put in okay, you put
Speaker 1: in two lines, and tells you which one is better.
Speaker 1: But there's and there's different things, so people will gravitate
Speaker 1: towards what sort of resonates with them. There's different ways
Speaker 1: to use on a beta. It's really interesting. Um. And
Speaker 1: I was saying when you and Captain Jack were on
Speaker 1: on a numbers game yesterday on Visa, I was saying,
Speaker 1: I'm sure there's tons of betters out here. We're listening
Speaker 1: to the megapon right now. Who hear that and say
Speaker 1: this sounds awesome. I really want to be a better better,
Speaker 1: but it sounds like it might be too complicated for
Speaker 1: me to them. You would say what I would say? Well,
Speaker 1: first off, um, is it complicated to put two lines
Speaker 1: in and see which one is better? And it will
Speaker 1: tell you which one is better? Now, I mean if
Speaker 1: you so, I think, regardless of how sophisticated you are
Speaker 1: or want to be, if you want to save money, um,
Speaker 1: you can save. We have tools that basically will help
Speaker 1: you execute that a better prices and save money that way. Um.
Speaker 1: But what we want to do Captain Jack loves this
Speaker 1: term aspirational sharp and I think it's fantastic too. But
Speaker 1: I think that's who were catering to. And we want
Speaker 1: to sort of help, um, help better, sort of move
Speaker 1: up that ladder. And and we we don't want to teach.
Speaker 1: We don't want to give him man of fish. We
Speaker 1: want to teach a man to fish. Or I've heard
Speaker 1: person wish Yeah, yeah, I like it. Aspirational betters, aspirational
Speaker 1: sharps exactly aspirational do you have anything but the acid aspirational.
Speaker 1: Do you have anything for aspirational radio hosts? Because there's
Speaker 1: a man to your left who is aspirational. He's a
Speaker 1: sort of mediocre. He'd like to get that. Well, all
Speaker 1: I want to say is I'm here for you if
Speaker 1: you were not here, you know. I was like, I
Speaker 1: was going to tell Gil no, but then he said,
Speaker 1: Todd wishnup. I was like, yeah, I'm in. I mean
Speaker 1: Todd wish to that have aspirational sharp Todd, you are
Speaker 1: the podcast stenographer, and uh I am the one falling
Speaker 1: further and further behind. What do you got, Killy the
Speaker 1: ice man with a nice delicious one and two? You
Speaker 1: gotta like it, just keep fading. The gil Meister he
Speaker 1: was now last week I was I told him he
Speaker 1: was fortunate, and when he was unfortunate on one of
Speaker 1: his wins, let's give him, uh, you know, some kind
Speaker 1: of compensatory, you know, clapping or something, because his Lions
Speaker 1: pick did not deserve to lose. They were inside the
Speaker 1: five yard line a hundred and fifty times and could
Speaker 1: not score. Mikey also lost on that, So you guys
Speaker 1: got unfortunate after being fortunate the week before. But Anyways,
Speaker 1: Guilt falls to four and eight with his one and two,
Speaker 1: but his teasers continue to roll on at four and oh,
Speaker 1: which is really the only important thing because anybody who
Speaker 1: would bet the spreads pre game is an idiot, so
Speaker 1: you know, four no teasers. Great job, Gilly. Mikey with
Speaker 1: a strong two in one week um with the Packers
Speaker 1: and Browns two winners. He moves to seven and five,
Speaker 1: although he lost his teaser with the Tight Titans because
Speaker 1: the Titans too, I had a four team teaser and
Speaker 1: that was the loser. So Mikey falls to two and
Speaker 1: two the teasers, and then the great One himself has
Speaker 1: a bad one in two weeks, but still stays tied
Speaker 1: for first at seven and five and also four no
Speaker 1: and teasers. That's me seven and five and four no
Speaker 1: and teasers, and we move on. How did how did
Speaker 1: our guest spot do? Yet? Last week our guest spot
Speaker 1: was Matt Brown. He had the Ravens a winner, the
Speaker 1: Browns a winner, and Dallas a winner. Clean and you
Speaker 1: also had the teaser correct with the Chiefs in the bus.
Speaker 1: Matt Brown clean sheet co host Time Action MSG plus
Speaker 1: that I do uh week nights with Kelly Bidlin as well. Okay,
Speaker 1: so then Mikey Circuit Million, Circus Survivor, Circus Survivor. People
Speaker 1: continue not to put in their entries. All time record
Speaker 1: nineteen people didn't put in their entry. How do weeks?
Speaker 1: What is that? Somebody needs to invest some money like
Speaker 1: Rupus has in his website and do a thirty for
Speaker 1: thirty on this and go to all these people that
Speaker 1: didn't over the years put in these picks. It gets
Speaker 1: more and more ludicrous. What if I told you? What
Speaker 1: if I told you? It's so now three straight weeks
Speaker 1: the largest knockout is the ones that didn't put one in, right,
Speaker 1: we we we lost four oh nine with the Saints,
Speaker 1: one fifty one with the Titans, nineteen the Medals, four Dolphins,
Speaker 1: one Vikings. We we lost exactly twenty percent of the
Speaker 1: remaining entrance went from seventeen to thirty three. So it
Speaker 1: should be it should be noted, and it was great
Speaker 1: that the Giants and Jets both with the upsets over
Speaker 1: the Saints and the Titans respectively in overtime, but it
Speaker 1: should be noted that there with all those eliminations, there
Speaker 1: are still more people alive in Survivor right now, this
Speaker 1: year than there were in the entire survivor pool. Last
Speaker 1: year there were nine. There's a thousand more. Yeah, so
Speaker 1: how many people relatives exactly started and now are left?
Speaker 1: So after four, after four weeks, you know we've knocked
Speaker 1: out last year last year lower last year because everyone
Speaker 1: lost the Colts and we want thirty three lost. A
Speaker 1: third of the people had the coltson Week one last
Speaker 1: year was down quick. I want to know if anybody, like,
Speaker 1: did anybody pick the Texans last week? I mean, what's
Speaker 1: the dumbest Oh, we've seen some ridiculous ones, like people
Speaker 1: thinking that they're some of this is to wait. They
Speaker 1: use opposite sides of the same game to advance the
Speaker 1: pick of two teams they think they'll never use again.
Speaker 1: That's called the double option that Derek promotes. I'm not
Speaker 1: too sure. No, no, somebody did it. Somebody used their
Speaker 1: six entries and did three Browns and three Texans in
Speaker 1: week two. Yeah. Wow, if you think the Texans are
Speaker 1: gonna went to stay away from the game and let
Speaker 1: everybody get slaughtered with the Browns, this is this again,
Speaker 1: this again. I keep trying to say this to to
Speaker 1: people know who listen. Anything beyond one entry. It is
Speaker 1: not proportional to your advantage. No, everyone is. If you
Speaker 1: have six entries, you do not have six times the
Speaker 1: chance because people do not play anything but that remaining
Speaker 1: one optimally. I have a stand on this gill though,
Speaker 1: because one of our friends asked about this, because he's
Speaker 1: in this group. Three and eleven people bought six entries
Speaker 1: this year. Okay, of those three eleven, sixty of those
Speaker 1: still have six entries alive, which our friend does. All
Speaker 1: our friend does, he asked about. But and here's the thing.
Speaker 1: He thinks that somehow he is that it doesn't matter.
Speaker 1: By the time we get to Thanksgiving, Let's see how
Speaker 1: many entries they all have left. That's what I'm saying.
Speaker 1: If if you do have six left, then I mean
Speaker 1: you're in a great spot. And his argument is you
Speaker 1: need those six to get through Thanksgiving and Christmas? You do,
Speaker 1: or to give you some back? Did you understand my point?
Speaker 1: He's not playing them all the same way by definition.
Speaker 1: By definition, that means you are not playing it the
Speaker 1: same way you would play with one. And so it
Speaker 1: is a bit of a face givings too far out
Speaker 1: for this to matter, is what I'm saying. Some people
Speaker 1: ultimately get there with two entries left. Right, Christmas is
Speaker 1: really far out to the people that are saving for Christmas.
Speaker 1: Last year, remember when Dr Dmyer's power were ranked at
Speaker 1: the end and I was third. There was like two
Speaker 1: different people with two entries left. Those are the people
Speaker 1: that have an advantage at the end. But right now
Speaker 1: do you agree with yeah? Well multiple yes, at the end.
Speaker 1: I started looking at the grid because this week is
Speaker 1: very difficult, um and it starts getting really really dice
Speaker 1: even uh in the next couple of weeks, I agree
Speaker 1: of like who's available and who you could take. I mean,
Speaker 1: I think I'm going to be forced to take either
Speaker 1: the Vikings this week or maybe even the Carolina Panthers,
Speaker 1: because you know, like I, I know I want Dallas
Speaker 1: for Thanksgiving, so I have to save those guys. And
Speaker 1: then there's other teams you have to save if you
Speaker 1: look at the grid, because there are some weeks there
Speaker 1: is nothing. And let me tell you something, thanks Giving,
Speaker 1: the Sunday of Thanksgiving is gonna be insane because if
Speaker 1: you look at the games, everyone's thinking you gotta get
Speaker 1: through Thanksgiving. You also have to get through the Sunday,
Speaker 1: which doesn't have as many games, and all those games
Speaker 1: are tough as hell. Andy, who's like gritting it out
Speaker 1: and mapping it at this point? I said it before
Speaker 1: the season. I was like, you're kidding yourself if you're
Speaker 1: doing it at this point, because you don't know you
Speaker 1: and Todd are both alive with your one entry, correct, Todd, Todd,
Speaker 1: who'd you have last week? Last week? I survived with
Speaker 1: the Kansas City Chiefs, and that's right, I had Cincinnati.
Speaker 1: Todd was sad Cincinnati rally to nine people knocked out.
Speaker 1: We're all rooting against each other and the circle million three.
Speaker 1: Just because the quarter ended the first four weeks with
Speaker 1: a quarter, now it's a five week quarter. Five people
Speaker 1: tied at eighteen and two going into Monday night. There
Speaker 1: was one guy that had a shot. He had the Raiders.
Speaker 1: He could have been nineteen and one and one hundred
Speaker 1: and seventy one thousand. But as it ends up, the
Speaker 1: guy that was fifteen and I went three and two,
Speaker 1: and four other people end up eighteen and two. They
Speaker 1: split first, second, and third. They each got forty nine thousand,
Speaker 1: three fifty and on the bottom end, two entries went
Speaker 1: three and seventeen. They split the five each new quarter begins,
Speaker 1: new quarter begins. Now the extra is the final quarter,
Speaker 1: the extra week. There's two extra weeks, right, so it's
Speaker 1: the second and fourth quarters are five weeks long. Okay,
Speaker 1: good to know, Todd, you're thirteen and seven. Yes, seven,
Speaker 1: I am tied like place all the way to nine.
Speaker 1: It's impressive. Good luck, good luck. That's all value these days.
Speaker 1: All right, Uh, let's do best bets. No before we
Speaker 1: do that Thursday night. I don't know if it's anybody's
Speaker 1: best bet, but tonight there is a game rams uh
Speaker 1: and the Seahawks Rams on the road favored by two
Speaker 1: and a half against Superman Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. Rufus,
Speaker 1: did you have any thoughts on this game at all?
Speaker 1: You know, I don't know if I have intelligent thoughts,
Speaker 1: but my numbers actually made the Seahawks a small favorite,
Speaker 1: although again it depends what are you using for home field?
Speaker 1: Depends on home field advantage right now, because I think
Speaker 1: the Rams are a slightly better team, but you know,
Speaker 1: mark like less than a point better. Um, I'm using
Speaker 1: two points for this game. That's but this is this
Speaker 1: is kind of the art of betting in a way.
Speaker 1: This is not necessarily science, like this is regress zero. UM.
Speaker 1: I was who was I talking with um earlier this
Speaker 1: week about home field advantage? I think it was Chris
Speaker 1: List on the Serious X Down Fantasy UM radio spot,
Speaker 1: And there was no home field advantage in two thousand nineteen.
Speaker 1: I didn't know this, like he he said he had
Speaker 1: heard the right two thousand nineteen, there was no home
Speaker 1: field advantage I and I like literally quickly pulled up
Speaker 1: data set. I was like regression of score differential on
Speaker 1: dummy variables for team and opponent and whether the teams
Speaker 1: at home. And certainly it was a very small negative number. UM.
Speaker 1: You know, we always say home field has been decreasing
Speaker 1: over time, but it kind of like fell off a
Speaker 1: cliff in two thousand nineteen and then two there no
Speaker 1: fans and it was you know, point one five points
Speaker 1: or something like that, and then this year it's basically
Speaker 1: been nothing too. What is your theorist why it fell
Speaker 1: off a cliff? Then? I don't know. I mean, what
Speaker 1: my theory to why college football team start with the
Speaker 1: letter oh? Covered a clip over fifteen years with six
Speaker 1: d observations like but but that is truly ridiculous that
Speaker 1: what what There's got to be something to this, right Well,
Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean I think there was last year,
Speaker 1: for sure. I mean, you and I root for a
Speaker 1: team that clearly has had no home field advantage in
Speaker 1: a decade, right like we could see that with our
Speaker 1: own eyes because of a curse. You and I actually
Speaker 1: had it to give a famous exchange on this show
Speaker 1: about Seattle crowd years ago. I don't know if you
Speaker 1: remember it where I said, oh, rufus, it's a huge
Speaker 1: home field advantage. I went to a game. I couldn't
Speaker 1: hear the guy next to me, and you said to me, Gil,
Speaker 1: really you went to one game and you've decided that
Speaker 1: it's a massive home field advantage. But that is a
Speaker 1: stadium Seattle where it is sort of conventional wisdom that
Speaker 1: it's this massive home field advantage. And yet you're even
Speaker 1: saying there, you're giving it a nod of two points.
Speaker 1: So so it's a greater home that advantage than most.
Speaker 1: And the big reason for me is because of the
Speaker 1: geographical location at Seattle that travel to travel, it's longer travel.
Speaker 1: It's yeah, not the crowd noise, not travel to travel.
Speaker 1: And although I'll say being a divisional game less home
Speaker 1: for the advantage, like historically that's been the case a
Speaker 1: divisional games because there's more familiarity this. You know, the
Speaker 1: Rams go there once a year. They're used to you know,
Speaker 1: players are used to that routine of coming into that stadium.
Speaker 1: It's not there. Yeah, So with would that trigger a
Speaker 1: bet on Seattle? Though? For you your your your projection, Well,
Speaker 1: this line opened it a pick and so it's kind
Speaker 1: of moved up and we moved towards the Rams, like
Speaker 1: you know, two points are worth the time. Um, And
Speaker 1: as I said, it's not Monday, so I'm probably not
Speaker 1: going about it. If you know, if it gets to three,
Speaker 1: I might just just for you know, yeah, um, or
Speaker 1: if I see a good like alt price or something
Speaker 1: like that. Um, that's kind of where I would where
Speaker 1: I would go. Or if I had to like to
Speaker 1: tease it with, I guess. So yeah, it is a question.
Speaker 1: Is that a good Seattle teaser? Like I mean that
Speaker 1: that feels kind of teaser? Is shi now at this point?
Speaker 1: And you know I read somewhere that Russell Wilson is
Speaker 1: nine in one on Thursday Night Football. Historically, he said
Speaker 1: he prides himself and how he prepares in a short week.
Speaker 1: Is there anything to that? He says, He prides himself urface,
Speaker 1: But I want to ask you guys all and that
Speaker 1: includes dot over you know, Yonder in Pittsburgh. What what? What?
Speaker 1: What do you make home field advantage this year for
Speaker 1: an average team? One point of seven? Is the word?
Speaker 1: Is the number that gets thrown around? Yeah, I think
Speaker 1: it's too to what Chris Andrews say. He only gives
Speaker 1: two teams the full three on your show, Yeah, Seattle
Speaker 1: and Green Bay. He gives three two? Was three what
Speaker 1: he used to give for every every problem for everybody.
Speaker 1: I mean, what year is that? Well, it could be
Speaker 1: anywhere from dinner the late eighties on? Right? Isn't it
Speaker 1: also matter where the where the line would be prior
Speaker 1: to the giving for the home So for instance, if
Speaker 1: if you were five and a half points better than
Speaker 1: a team and now you're getting one and a half
Speaker 1: for the home now you get to go over seven,
Speaker 1: Like I feel like that has to be part of
Speaker 1: the equation, like getting near the key numbers on the
Speaker 1: home field, You know what I mean, That's why we
Speaker 1: said average. I hear you, okay, fair enough. Top refuses
Speaker 1: to answer the question I see I who knows, I
Speaker 1: mean this NFL nonsense. You've got to just played in game.
Speaker 1: It's ridiculous. Yeah, but I sit here. I used to
Speaker 1: sit here on a Sunday and be able to pick
Speaker 1: off six or eight end game betside like I sit here.
Speaker 1: The last two weeks, I made exactly two bets. It's
Speaker 1: just too hard. It's just too hard to find that
Speaker 1: where you think there's value in these game props that
Speaker 1: are are are fun. Not here. If you were in
Speaker 1: Nevada though, you're in the you're in the you're in
Speaker 1: the dark age, but you can you know, there are
Speaker 1: places where you can bet the running backs, you know,
Speaker 1: not the you know under and over on that passing
Speaker 1: and all this stuff as the game's going on. It's incredible.
Speaker 1: But the truth is a lot of those props are
Speaker 1: really bets on the game in a sense because you have,
Speaker 1: like if you're gonna bet the running back under it
Speaker 1: because you think that the other team is gonna have
Speaker 1: to throw because they're a hind. All that other stuff
Speaker 1: is really coming into the proper handicapped as well. By
Speaker 1: the way, this has nothing to do with anything, but
Speaker 1: did you say, did you hear that Brandon Stanley minute
Speaker 1: and change that why you need to run the football
Speaker 1: that I thought brilliant, brilliant. Give him coach of the year.
Speaker 1: Now if you, by the way, you send that back
Speaker 1: to the seventies and eighties the pants what what? What
Speaker 1: number in terms of a game do you give the
Speaker 1: Chargers this year having him as the coach as opposed
Speaker 1: to Anthony Lynn last year. I mean, dude, it's already
Speaker 1: one at least, I think Anthony Lynn got a rod deal.
Speaker 1: Do you I think Anthony Lynn was a better coach
Speaker 1: than people give him credit for a better head coach? Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think I think we see the in game stuff, yes,
Speaker 1: and we say he couldn't manage in game. You know,
Speaker 1: you know who else people said that about for years
Speaker 1: Andy Reid, And people don't think Andy reads a boat,
Speaker 1: don't know, but I think he still can't manage in
Speaker 1: game Andy Reid. I think he's batter, I think. But
Speaker 1: I think we see the in game decision making, the
Speaker 1: fourth down stuff, and we said, like, it's what we
Speaker 1: can observe directly. We don't indirectly observe what happened. We
Speaker 1: don't directly observe what happens in the locker room in
Speaker 1: the motivation and how he you know, leads these men,
Speaker 1: um we and so we judge based on these two probabilities.
Speaker 1: So a numbers game this morning, I lead with this.
Speaker 1: That game. That baseball game last night was National Nation
Speaker 1: League wild card game. The most significant moment of that
Speaker 1: game most people didn't even notice or comment on right
Speaker 1: because they're not analytics people. When they didn't pull waynewright,
Speaker 1: when Schilt didn't put Joe Pete had a great tweet
Speaker 1: about this when they didn't put pull waynewright after I
Speaker 1: think it was beat got HBP hit by pitch, so
Speaker 1: there was two out better at first at the top
Speaker 1: of the sixth, and Waynewright's position came up and it
Speaker 1: was one to one. Yes, No, I think this was
Speaker 1: the wasn't this earlier in the game? Top of the
Speaker 1: six Yes, top of the top of the six one
Speaker 1: to one, two out beaters at first, pain rights position,
Speaker 1: game and Silt lead him into bad out of the inning.
Speaker 1: By the way Wayne writes out after the next two
Speaker 1: batters anyway, in the bottom of the sixth and the
Speaker 1: point that Rufus was just making, when we somewhat justifiably
Speaker 1: but not always justifiably bitch about some of these fourth
Speaker 1: down decisions. I'm as guilty as of it as anybody.
Speaker 1: The win probability difference in those fourth down decisions that
Speaker 1: are that are made poorly, it's about a two percent
Speaker 1: win probability difference. That thing with with Wayne Right not
Speaker 1: being pulled yesterday, if they go up two to one,
Speaker 1: it's a twenty percent win probability difference, and no one
Speaker 1: mentions it or ever says anything about it. He made
Speaker 1: the last out in the fourth too, in that same
Speaker 1: situation where he came up with two outs in a runner,
Speaker 1: but that was the fourth I thought the key pointing
Speaker 1: the whole game and not from a decision making though,
Speaker 1: was this O'Neill not advancing the runners first and second,
Speaker 1: nobody out top of the fifth and child batting O'Neil
Speaker 1: and fred Ronado and not doing anything all night is
Speaker 1: probably the difference in that game. It's uh. But Anthony
Speaker 1: len five double digit leads last year. Five, he's handing off,
Speaker 1: he's running, he's he's running. A draw play in Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay up seventeen and a rainstorm with fifty seconds left,
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay only had one time out and they fumble
Speaker 1: and now they're only up ten. And I mean, this
Speaker 1: goes on and on for years with them about this
Speaker 1: stuff's terrible. But he's good at like I mean, I
Speaker 1: think he's actually good at getting these guys to play.
Speaker 1: I mean, I think he's a good In Detroit, he
Speaker 1: got he like you can't ignore the fact that he
Speaker 1: got them those double digit leads. He turned around and
Speaker 1: then he took We took a team that went four
Speaker 1: and twelve and five, five and eleven before he took over,
Speaker 1: they went what nine and seven and then twelve and
Speaker 1: four and uh lost to the um Patriots in the
Speaker 1: was the divisional round. I guess with Philip Rivers, who yes,
Speaker 1: you know. Also he has the least clutch quarter He
Speaker 1: had the least clutch quarterback of all time in Philip
Speaker 1: Rivers and a non sneaking quarterback as well. But there's
Speaker 1: other things though about the charges, they can't be quantified.
Speaker 1: And people like you who are lifelong Charges fans will
Speaker 1: tell you this. They were always they they would never
Speaker 1: they never play hurt. Also, there were key guys that
Speaker 1: would get dinged and on the charges. The culture of
Speaker 1: that team under Anthony Lynn, they'd be like well we're out.
Speaker 1: I'm out. There was never guys that played through ship.
Speaker 1: They just were out, and so there's there's stuff like
Speaker 1: that that aren't in the numbers. I'll say this, I know,
Speaker 1: I know someone who works for the Chargers, and basically
Speaker 1: everybody in that organization has so much respect for Anthony Lynn,
Speaker 1: and I think I think he was a great leader,
Speaker 1: and I think he got that team to play like
Speaker 1: I don't know, like Rufus, I agree with Rufus, I
Speaker 1: agree with you. I think Mike Tomlin is similar in
Speaker 1: a in a situation, he's a very good at certain
Speaker 1: parts of the game and the time management and the
Speaker 1: going for it on fourth down. Stuff like that he's
Speaker 1: not good at. But because he's good at the other stuff,
Speaker 1: he's able to Now Anthony Lynn, I agree with you.
Speaker 1: I think he was a pretty good coach in certain
Speaker 1: but because he had this huge blind spot on certain things,
Speaker 1: everyone just blows it up out of proportion. But the
Speaker 1: fact is it still did cost them zillions. Well that's
Speaker 1: the thing. Maybe let's rephrase that. Maybe what we're really
Speaker 1: saying is that the skill of being an in game
Speaker 1: on the fly coach is actually much more important than
Speaker 1: preparation pro preflop. Well, I don't know. They think it's
Speaker 1: what we observed though, so we think it's more important. Oh,
Speaker 1: I think it is more important though, because again, let's
Speaker 1: take let's take the God of All and I know
Speaker 1: it's a drinking game with me. Joseph Jackson Gibbs the
Speaker 1: greatest coach of all time, rufus. I think you've known that, right,
Speaker 1: So he would have great game plans if if Washington
Speaker 1: was getting crushed at the half, whether on offense or defense,
Speaker 1: Petty Bone or Gibbs, Joe Gibbs and Riggie Pettybone had
Speaker 1: the ability to say, our game plan sucks. Where XS
Speaker 1: and O's geniuses. Here's what we're doing. Bang bang bang
Speaker 1: bang bang, and they'd be a different team in the
Speaker 1: second half. That's what a good coaches with all these
Speaker 1: other guys. Marty Schottenheimer, I know how to do this.
Speaker 1: You play my way, never made a super Bowl. Steve Spurrier,
Speaker 1: We're just gonna pitch and catch. I know what I'm doing. No,
Speaker 1: you don't, jackass, right Urban What about Tony Dungey. What
Speaker 1: about a Tony Dunge type. I'm not saying it's the
Speaker 1: only way you can wear. What I'm saying is it's
Speaker 1: the single most important thing. Yeah, you can't. What's that saying?
Speaker 1: Shot him drive in a fumble and went fourteen and
Speaker 1: two and thirteen and three and never and missed and
Speaker 1: they couldn't get out of theirs. I'm not sure why
Speaker 1: I can't use it. That's my point. People think he's
Speaker 1: a good coach. He was. I think you're I mean,
Speaker 1: you're being fooled by randomness a little bit. Oh, I
Speaker 1: don't think think about how many regular season games we
Speaker 1: have to observe relative to the the playoff games. All right, well,
Speaker 1: let's get let's get back to an lit let's get
Speaker 1: out of the subject. Forget throw a Shotenheimer. I'll stick
Speaker 1: by it. But whatever, there's no way to me that
Speaker 1: the in game portion is less important than what happens
Speaker 1: before the game. But you're talking about in games XS
Speaker 1: and os and being able to adapt a game plan
Speaker 1: to about clock management, I'm talking about situational football. He
Speaker 1: had no concept of that. Decisions a head coaches make
Speaker 1: during a game, and you talk so so I guess
Speaker 1: the thing is like these four down I mean, we'll
Speaker 1: think about like David not going like but you know,
Speaker 1: I mean, but I mean that that was a great
Speaker 1: in general, Like people are looking, you know a lot
Speaker 1: of these are like, well, you know, it's posting a
Speaker 1: team like you know, one and a half to win
Speaker 1: probability and those are kind of the pretty bad not
Speaker 1: go for decisions. Yeah no, that's what I was trying
Speaker 1: to say before, Like we and I raised my hand
Speaker 1: a guilty, But who makes up the probabilities that give
Speaker 1: me a break? Some of them are not? Here? We go? Here,
Speaker 1: we go with this. Some of them are not that's
Speaker 1: some of them are huge Todd Wish note, can we
Speaker 1: see your model model is called it's called the Google
Speaker 1: loss model route and the other thing that it doesn't
Speaker 1: see here's the big problem with all the modeling. Buru.
Speaker 1: There we go. Okay, maybe not you mr. This is
Speaker 1: why I'm here, Like, but the you know, if you
Speaker 1: watch the games a teams, here's and I wanted to
Speaker 1: bring this up anyway, So I'm glad that this came
Speaker 1: up today. You know, I watched games and you watch
Speaker 1: for instance, like in a college game, right a team
Speaker 1: will hit an eighty six yard pass and then do
Speaker 1: nothing for like five five series is in a row
Speaker 1: and their stats don't look that bad because they have
Speaker 1: the eighty six yard pass are awful. Would you say
Speaker 1: their play success rate is awful, right, exactly, But I'm
Speaker 1: saying their yards per play doesn't look as bad and
Speaker 1: stuff like that. And also, if you're watching the game,
Speaker 1: a lot of times you see how difficult it is
Speaker 1: or how easy it is by how open people are.
Speaker 1: And I think that's one thing that just does not
Speaker 1: come across in modeling. Not to change the subject out
Speaker 1: of this, but um, you know, I think it's one
Speaker 1: problem with with modeling that And and this goes to
Speaker 1: the fact that you're saying, oh, it's only a one
Speaker 1: or two percent probability. You know, that's all based on
Speaker 1: somebody deciding what the probabilities are, So it's not really
Speaker 1: a model. It's a person deciding, well, it is a model,
Speaker 1: someone modeling what those probabilities are for an average team
Speaker 1: against an average opponent. Then you could say, well, you
Speaker 1: know what, you know, this team is has a higher
Speaker 1: percentage chance of getting the sport down than an average team,
Speaker 1: although you know a bad team has the worst chance,
Speaker 1: but a bad team also will have a worst chance,
Speaker 1: you know, of getting yards later on too. So let
Speaker 1: me say, let me say, let me say it a
Speaker 1: different way, Todd, And I don't know if you'll agree
Speaker 1: with this or not. I have always found that win
Speaker 1: probabilities in baseball, because of the mechanical nature of baseball,
Speaker 1: with three bases, three outs, and innings and nine innings,
Speaker 1: that probabilities historically on historical data data are much more
Speaker 1: precise than that in football because there are so many
Speaker 1: more variables in football, Like there's like play calls, right
Speaker 1: like if you know you have a particular playball like
Speaker 1: think about think about the Eagles and the super Bowl, Philly,
Speaker 1: Special Place or something, right like, they're like, we we
Speaker 1: have the special player. We think that this is gonna work.
Speaker 1: You know, maybe on average this scenario would only be
Speaker 1: a sixty percent conversion. We think this is gonna be
Speaker 1: like eighty percent or something, and maybe it is, and
Speaker 1: so that should affect the decision making. We could go on,
Speaker 1: but Mikey has this is if you seriously, if you
Speaker 1: really want to get into it, like for real. But
Speaker 1: you know, I think Gil, you're making a good point
Speaker 1: that the baseball Todd on average, has a bigger average numbers.
Speaker 1: But it doesn't mean that every football decision is only
Speaker 1: a two percent decision. That's no, of course they're not
Speaker 1: all two percent. But I'm I'm saying we, I think,
Speaker 1: analyze these sort of things that don't have that have
Speaker 1: a fairly marginal impact on It's not like it's not
Speaker 1: like Anthony Lynn is costing his team like six points
Speaker 1: a game out there with you know, worth down decision. Maybe,
Speaker 1: but I don't think we're arguing that. Yeah, well, Gil's
Speaker 1: arguing that. He said at one point, I didn't say
Speaker 1: that said it's the most important thing. Oh, I think.
Speaker 1: I think. I think in the end that in game coaching,
Speaker 1: situational decision making, ultimately in those higher leverage situations, is
Speaker 1: more important than what happens before a game starts. Yes,
Speaker 1: you must think, you must think Andy Reid is not
Speaker 1: a very good touch that. No, I think he's good.
Speaker 1: I think he's very good. I think he has all
Speaker 1: the talent in the world right and I think he
Speaker 1: was a the talent was able to overcome any of
Speaker 1: Andy reads and he read the real knock on Andy
Speaker 1: Reid was not situational except it was just clock management
Speaker 1: at the end of games. That was his bugaboo with
Speaker 1: Anthony Lynn. We I mean, there's too many of them.
Speaker 1: We've forgotten half. How about when they threw the hail
Speaker 1: Mary and they needed two scores and they lined up
Speaker 1: and run the ball and didn't get in and then
Speaker 1: they only had one play left there. It's just insane.
Speaker 1: There's so many things he did in Buffalo when they
Speaker 1: were There's just so many things he did throughout the
Speaker 1: course of the year that were ludicrous. I mean, to me,
Speaker 1: you should just have someone in there like that, says,
Speaker 1: do you know a consultant sends his resume out to teams,
Speaker 1: He does about his background covering sports, betting and all
Speaker 1: and offers to be the person on the field making
Speaker 1: decisions for them. It's the old Bill Simmons thing, where
Speaker 1: Andy Reid should they should have gone to the bullpen
Speaker 1: at the two minute warning. Everything like calling somebody to
Speaker 1: the rest of the game. But the thing is it
Speaker 1: has to be marbleized into the offensive coordinator and everything else.
Speaker 1: It's not as simple as just saying, okay, this is
Speaker 1: the guy in charge. Because let's say you're at the
Speaker 1: end of the half and there's a minute ago and
Speaker 1: you really want this to be the last. That means
Speaker 1: all the play calling has to be geared towards that.
Speaker 1: It can't just be one guy. It has to be
Speaker 1: a guy mixed into the entire organization because that offensive
Speaker 1: quarter needs to make play calls that are going to
Speaker 1: be as successful as possible with also thinking, this is
Speaker 1: the last drive of the half marbalized if you will,
Speaker 1: marbleized marbalization. That's right, marbleization. Big fan of over marbleization.
Speaker 1: It gives it all the flavor. Rufus and I are
Speaker 1: aligned on on Amo. It is superior and even two berries, right,
Speaker 1: but it's only two percent. It's only two at best
Speaker 1: than any other steakhouse at the most. All right, we
Speaker 1: have to Mikey has a deadline because he does a
Speaker 1: show called odds On not to be confused with the
Speaker 1: Nuts or not to be confused with odds on Lombardi,
Speaker 1: the website that he does with them all shot. Alright,
Speaker 1: So three best bets if we can get to three, Rufus,
Speaker 1: what's your first? My first? Um? Well, unfortunately this well
Speaker 1: the line I bet is not available, but so that's
Speaker 1: not an excuse. But I'm gonna you know, I want
Speaker 1: to give people what you know. I want them to
Speaker 1: be aligned with me. So Um, the Saints. The Saints
Speaker 1: is a home well because of that great home field
Speaker 1: advantage in Washington, right is a road dog. I think
Speaker 1: that line what are we? It opened somehow took one two.
Speaker 1: Now I did not understand that line there. I mean,
Speaker 1: I think the Saints are much better team than they
Speaker 1: and people give them credit for. I think Winston was
Speaker 1: never got the chance. I mean you want to talk
Speaker 1: about like coaching in the second half, like screwing a
Speaker 1: team over Sean Payton's like really conservative play call and
Speaker 1: thinking the defense would just close out the Giants. And
Speaker 1: I mean the Saints do have a very good defense.
Speaker 1: They were I had them as the best basically the
Speaker 1: best defensive football last year in terms of the predictive metrics. Um,
Speaker 1: they have not been quite as good. Um this year
Speaker 1: they have not been good passing the ball, but um,
Speaker 1: actually no, their defense still has been really good percentile
Speaker 1: against the rush against the past, scoring a ficiency and
Speaker 1: eight in play success. So, UM, I just think that there.
Speaker 1: I mean, I I don't think that Washington is anywhere
Speaker 1: in the same tier, um in terms of of you know, ratings.
Speaker 1: So Saints pick number one, I think, and I mean
Speaker 1: on a neutral field I have that is a is
Speaker 1: a touchdown spread? Do you really? Wow? I'm not saying
Speaker 1: I'm right. I haven't been right so far this year,
Speaker 1: but so there is that. But I betted it minus one.
Speaker 1: So College Place, you're doing well, College very college Place.
Speaker 1: I'll call up the spreadsheets when Duke's losing seventeen and
Speaker 1: towards the end of the half to Kansas. Take the
Speaker 1: Duke team total over. I don't care what it is
Speaker 1: and ben a billion dollars which book and will give
Speaker 1: me the billion? And the circa limits are pretty good.
Speaker 1: But okay, they don't even do it. Mikey what year?
Speaker 1: I think I have really square plays this week? But
Speaker 1: this is this is I don't get the Packers number
Speaker 1: and Cincinnati three, I mean, that makes no sense to me.
Speaker 1: It should be like one right the other way, I
Speaker 1: think it should be five and a half. It's you know,
Speaker 1: I will never Let's not forget for a half. Cincinnati
Speaker 1: should have been down seventeen to nothing to Jacksonville on
Speaker 1: Thursday night and let's well, no, I don't think he
Speaker 1: should have went There were three possessions for each team
Speaker 1: in the first half. Why wouldn't you go up three possessions.
Speaker 1: So there were exactly three possessions for each team. You
Speaker 1: don't want to be up three Urban he's thinking about,
Speaker 1: you know, going to the bar in Columbus. But so
Speaker 1: this is how I led the numbers game the next
Speaker 1: morning to he very nice visual so he it was
Speaker 1: the curse. And again this is something that the mainstream
Speaker 1: announcers never mentioned, right, the curse of having third and
Speaker 1: goal at the eight with one left and half of fourteen. Nothing.
Speaker 1: Anything that happens. You either are kicking a field goal,
Speaker 1: if it's a loss, no gain or very short gain,
Speaker 1: or it's a touchdown, you twenty one and nothing. The
Speaker 1: one thing that can't happen is if you gain seven
Speaker 1: yards right, six and a half or seven yards, because
Speaker 1: then it tweaks your brain into thinking, oh now, which
Speaker 1: they did and they got stuffed that. So everybody says
Speaker 1: all the fourth down plays the key play of the game.
Speaker 1: They stuff to know it's the third down play. Was
Speaker 1: it such a quirk of foot? You're Kevin Stefanski only
Speaker 1: gotta get four yards because he's going forth and from
Speaker 1: the fourth. No matter what that was. That was all
Speaker 1: my notes of the games last week. I just took
Speaker 1: random fourth down plays that they called. I didn't mind
Speaker 1: the Carolina fourth down when they were down twelve points
Speaker 1: in the third quarter in their own territory. But the
Speaker 1: Colts one at the end of the first half, when
Speaker 1: they were up seven to three, fourth down at their
Speaker 1: own and they went for it. I was like, Okay,
Speaker 1: maybe we're getting a little too crazy. I mean, you
Speaker 1: liked it. I'm never gonna fault the team for going
Speaker 1: forward on fourth down at their own twenty eight up
Speaker 1: seven to three. Well, how fourth and what fourth too?
Speaker 1: They're going against their going against an average team. And
Speaker 1: when I say an average team, I mean a team
Speaker 1: that could never score in the history of football. How
Speaker 1: about what Taylor went fourth in one with three minutes
Speaker 1: left in the third quarter against the Vikings in Week one,
Speaker 1: up by fourteen from his own thirty I mean, you're
Speaker 1: supposed to get that fourth and one. You're supposed to,
Speaker 1: but if you don't, you put a team right back
Speaker 1: in the game. Vikings only had one drive of more
Speaker 1: than eight plays the whole game, and you're up fourteen.
Speaker 1: It was fourth and one. I like, okay, yeah, there
Speaker 1: wasn't three sounds probably probably not the right four. I
Speaker 1: took the Packers, I can. I will not forget them.
Speaker 1: They should have been down seventeen. Nothing. I will not forget.
Speaker 1: How did the Packers get blown up by the Saints
Speaker 1: in Week one? I mean, that's a very strange game.
Speaker 1: Though the Saints had five touchdowns in twelve yards at
Speaker 1: one point. I mean, it was like it was ridiculous.
Speaker 1: Were we were fooled into thinking that the Saints offense
Speaker 1: was better than it was in that first week? Many
Speaker 1: of us, it's really not it's a bad offense with
Speaker 1: a great defense or a very good defense. It is
Speaker 1: it's a very good defensive team. Yeah. Anyhow, I'll never
Speaker 1: forget in Chicago in Week two how he got sacked
Speaker 1: nine times and through three interceptions and just totally outmatch.
Speaker 1: It was only fields coming in the game and throwing
Speaker 1: interceptions that made that game close. I don't think Cincinnati's
Speaker 1: that good of a team. I still think they're tied
Speaker 1: with Pittsburgh is the worst team in that division, And
Speaker 1: maybe you give a nod to Pittsburgh, but I don't
Speaker 1: think it's close. I think the Packers are appreciably better
Speaker 1: if this game was in Lamb, But wouldn't it be
Speaker 1: six the Packers. I would think anyhow, I'll take the
Speaker 1: Packers minus three. Pittsburgh. Is Pittsburgh better off a big
Speaker 1: better Mason, Rudolph Mason, Rudolph Mason, Rudolph doesn't Mason. It
Speaker 1: doesn't better for for all of time, I think it's
Speaker 1: may think it's still. I mean, my numbers say that
Speaker 1: because they're not like but yeah, you know, at this point,
Speaker 1: it feels like it's it feels like nobody can be
Speaker 1: worse than big Ben. But he's probably better than Bason.
Speaker 1: I mean, what about Nathan Peterman if he was on
Speaker 1: the you know, Dwayne Haskins not mentioned in this conversation.
Speaker 1: Big Ben's taking one. By the way, I'm not a
Speaker 1: Big Ben apologist. Big Ben is not as bad as
Speaker 1: everybody's saying. He's in Pittsburgh. Should we listen to are
Speaker 1: a total Big Ben apologist. By the way, I am
Speaker 1: not that. I'm not a Pittsburg Steelers offensive line is
Speaker 1: terrible and the receivers get no separation whatsoever. So it's
Speaker 1: not all big beness, but they do. They have the
Speaker 1: kid from Notre Dame Reiver. You know what, Steelers are overrated.
Speaker 1: The the receivers are overrated. We're going back to the
Speaker 1: time because Antonio Brown was there. First of all, Juju
Speaker 1: Smith Schuster was never a number one. He was never
Speaker 1: a number one. They made him up better than than
Speaker 1: he was. What about his USC I thought he was
Speaker 1: at USC all. I'm saying is if you watch the
Speaker 1: Steeler games, you see the receivers are never open. That's
Speaker 1: because Matt Canada. We're in Barking Canada. Is uh, you know,
Speaker 1: like no motion, no like I mean, I'm not nextus
Speaker 1: nose guy. But I've you know, I've read I've read
Speaker 1: Twitter Big Ben third and fourth down lays. This year,
Speaker 1: third and fourth down, there's been fifty two of them.
Speaker 1: Twenty four of those fifty two. He's throwing the ball
Speaker 1: short of the sticks. Think about that. Yeah, it was
Speaker 1: pretty offensive. Fine, is an absolute horrendous unit. You if
Speaker 1: you can't win a football game with no offensive line,
Speaker 1: I give you that. But if you're twenty four of
Speaker 1: fifty two are short of the sticks, there is an
Speaker 1: element of braindeadedness. Okay, I'm not saying he's you have
Speaker 1: to take risks, you do, I mean okay, And I'm
Speaker 1: not saying that's like someone's throwing away on fourth down.
Speaker 1: That's why would you do that? It's cart he just
Speaker 1: want to take It's like it's like roof, Like what
Speaker 1: you said about Anthony Lynn. I kind of agree with
Speaker 1: you about Anthony Lynn. I don't think as an overall
Speaker 1: football coach, I don't think he's as bad as everyone
Speaker 1: makes it. Okay, as an offensive coordinator, Todd, I think
Speaker 1: he's doing a fine job with the Lions. Well, I
Speaker 1: think think about this like, Okay, are you the same
Speaker 1: person you were five years ago? Absolutely not? Okay. People
Speaker 1: change and grow and learn, and I don't know if
Speaker 1: Anthony Lynn has that mind or I mean maybe some people.
Speaker 1: But wait, wise they certainly do. All right, Todd, Todd,
Speaker 1: what's your first pick? Wait? Wait? So so because you
Speaker 1: know on the game one pick, but the other one
Speaker 1: I took, I took Cincinnati actually plus three and a half.
Speaker 1: But I don't we're just going around the horn on
Speaker 1: the pick. But I wanna, I wanna, I want to
Speaker 1: rebut please in my rebut I think you'll appreciate this, Gil.
Speaker 1: It's just going to be one name. Joe Barry's is
Speaker 1: a Washington band. You understand, like, why would any team
Speaker 1: hire that guy's defensive coordinator. It's brutal, Like I don't
Speaker 1: understand how they think that's a step up from Mike
Speaker 1: the team. Yeah, but you had the teen was so
Speaker 1: bad in the championship game. In one game, he was
Speaker 1: really bad. They never I mean, the Sea should have
Speaker 1: gotten the Seahawk, should have gotten rid of Russell Wilson
Speaker 1: after that Super Bowl. He cost them the Super Bowl,
Speaker 1: right the second Super Bowl. I think he cost them
Speaker 1: the second super Bowl making a point. I don't think so.
Speaker 1: I think Daryl Bevel costs him second Super You know,
Speaker 1: that's a good point. Step out gifts as a as adjuster.
Speaker 1: And I thought Pete Carroll at USC was the best
Speaker 1: college at halftime of changing a game plan that I've
Speaker 1: ever seen. Just to throw that, I don't know. His
Speaker 1: second half numbers were amazing. If you met the second
Speaker 1: half in USC when they had that run with Reggie Bush.
Speaker 1: I every week I used to win on that. It
Speaker 1: was like literally like fifteen and two at some point,
Speaker 1: didn't matter whether they were behind or head or I
Speaker 1: mean they were probably always ahead. They usually weren't ahead
Speaker 1: by that much, or they were behind at halftime, and
Speaker 1: then they would just blow the doors off people in
Speaker 1: the second I remember that isn't because they're deeper and
Speaker 1: they're like you know, later on in the game when
Speaker 1: you know you're bringing in the backups and stuff, their
Speaker 1: backups are just going to crush the other teams back.
Speaker 1: That could be a factor. Yes, I hope Pete Carroll
Speaker 1: watched that Brandon Staley Running Back Running Game dissertation. But
Speaker 1: did you have more than just the two words Joe Barry?
Speaker 1: Not really? I mean I basically I think that the
Speaker 1: green Bay defense thinks. Do you believe Cincinnati will win
Speaker 1: this game? No? Is that your second pick? But he
Speaker 1: took three and a half. I took three. Let's be fair.
Speaker 1: I mean I make it. I make it. I make
Speaker 1: the line basically a little less than one one yea.
Speaker 1: So it's you take. So you're saying Cincinnati is the
Speaker 1: equivalent of the best team in the NFC North. I
Speaker 1: think Cincinnati's point seven points worse than an average team,
Speaker 1: and so Green Bay's an average team. Do you know
Speaker 1: there're two point four points better than an average team,
Speaker 1: but three one and then you give them two points
Speaker 1: in this game? It all it all comes down to
Speaker 1: home field advantage here, basically, So would you take him
Speaker 1: at current line three, Like what, I actually bet them myself. No,
Speaker 1: I would not bet them myself, but being honest and
Speaker 1: half on Monday, I'm not going to bed. Yeah, we
Speaker 1: gotta go. Okay, my number one pick is going to
Speaker 1: be the Jacksonville Jaguars plus four and a half. What
Speaker 1: what was that I said? I heard it audible? Uh? Okay,
Speaker 1: here's the thing. This is not so much a pick
Speaker 1: for Jacksonville. It's a pick against the Tennessee Titans. Um.
Speaker 1: You know, I don't really like betting against the team
Speaker 1: and just got embarrassed by the Jets. But I just
Speaker 1: think the Tennessee Titans defense is not ready for prime time,
Speaker 1: and the Jacksonville Jaguars are not as bad as everyone
Speaker 1: thinks they are. On offense. Against Cincinnati, they moved the football.
Speaker 1: They did move the football against Cincinnati with not a
Speaker 1: lot of trouble. I think everyone will move the football
Speaker 1: against the Tennessee defense. I just think it's a terrible defense.
Speaker 1: And I think if you're getting four and a half
Speaker 1: points at home in a National Football League game, you
Speaker 1: have to be able to if you're gonna cover four
Speaker 1: and a half, you have to be able to do
Speaker 1: something on defense, and this team does not want to
Speaker 1: do anything on defense, So you've got to be ahead
Speaker 1: by more than ten at the end. Otherwise the backdoors
Speaker 1: wide open. I'm taking Jacksonville plus four and a half
Speaker 1: because I just don't think Tennessee with that defense should
Speaker 1: be favored, you know, that much against anybody. They just
Speaker 1: can't play defense. God, do you discount the distraction of
Speaker 1: Urban Buyer? The players saying they don't. They think he's
Speaker 1: a clown, he's a joke. The owner has no faith
Speaker 1: in him. I'm O, yes, I know, And I like
Speaker 1: when that's in there because now everyone's going to talk
Speaker 1: about that all week. Oh my god, Urban Meyer got
Speaker 1: a half lap dance. And was it a real lap
Speaker 1: dance or a full lap dance or a half a
Speaker 1: lap dance. I don't know what really happened with Urban Meyer.
Speaker 1: Oh my god, now we can't do the X and
Speaker 1: nose because Urban got a lap dance. And now you know,
Speaker 1: my career as wide receiver is totally ruined because of
Speaker 1: Urban's lap dance. You know what, Guys still want to
Speaker 1: make catches. Guys don't want to run the football, Guys
Speaker 1: don't want to make that Because I still want to
Speaker 1: play in the National Football League, So all this ESPN
Speaker 1: hubbub is for me. It helps me. I'll take the
Speaker 1: extra half a point I'm getting for the hubbub plus
Speaker 1: four and a half. I loved tendency on guessing lines
Speaker 1: and minus four. I will lay the minus four and
Speaker 1: a half because of Urban Meyer. That's my that's my
Speaker 1: second play. That's your second. By the way, if you
Speaker 1: could just shut up one second time and let me speak,
Speaker 1: I really would appreciate it. Um. The the thing about
Speaker 1: first of all, I love the Orlando Sentinel describing that
Speaker 1: as someone dancing close to his lap. I love that description. UM.
Speaker 1: I thought guessing lines Tennessee was was a quick reaction
Speaker 1: for me. I thought that line was too low. Tennessee
Speaker 1: has the get out of jail free card, even without
Speaker 1: when they didn't have their wide receivers last year. By
Speaker 1: just tucking it under Derrick Henry's stomach and just getting
Speaker 1: out of dodge, they should have been killed in that
Speaker 1: Jets game seven different times. They somehow managed to make
Speaker 1: it all the way. They did lose in the end.
Speaker 1: I get it. In overtime, I think the Titans they
Speaker 1: will have at least one of the two wide receivers back.
Speaker 1: That's huge for that offense. And I actually do think
Speaker 1: that the urban Meyer thing matters, and I'll tell you why.
Speaker 1: Normally I wouldn't, but if you're listening to what those
Speaker 1: players are saying, that ship is corrosive. They are not
Speaker 1: feeling this, dude whatsoever. I actually don't think that all
Speaker 1: of their heads are in this game. So I'm taking Tennessee.
Speaker 1: It's it's well far beyond this lapdown. He had him
Speaker 1: hitting in O T A s which was illegal. He says,
Speaker 1: we made the cuts on COVID decasy. I mean, everything
Speaker 1: he's done has had a false ring to it, thank you.
Speaker 1: Was all that true in the first half against Cincinnati
Speaker 1: when they should have been up seventeen nothing were they
Speaker 1: corrossedst They were corrossed by the fourth decision at the gone.
Speaker 1: That's where they lost the faith. They're still professionals, and
Speaker 1: they still want to play football. I mean, come on,
Speaker 1: we can't, I know, but look, there's obviously something to
Speaker 1: what you guys are saying. And I don't think urban
Speaker 1: Meyer is a good coach at all. But that's already
Speaker 1: in the line. All right, We'll just play it out
Speaker 1: we'll see what happens. What's your second pick? My second
Speaker 1: one is on the New York Jets. What's the Jetropolitans?
Speaker 1: Spread right here? New York Jets are I have him
Speaker 1: as plus three minus one plus three. I liked them
Speaker 1: better at three and a half obviously when guessing lines came,
Speaker 1: but I'll stick to the plus three. I just don't
Speaker 1: believe the Atlanta Falcons. Certainly they shouldn't have had the hook.
Speaker 1: They shouldn't be a three and a half point favorite.
Speaker 1: This is a game is in London, by the way,
Speaker 1: over anybody, Um, I just you watched the Falcons play football.
Speaker 1: Maddie Ice just doesn't appear to have the the decision
Speaker 1: making or the time to make the proper decisions whatever
Speaker 1: it is. Washington's defense wasn't really didn't really crush him,
Speaker 1: and he still had issues. There was, by the way,
Speaker 1: there was a play where Chase Young got called for
Speaker 1: a roughing that really could have made that game a
Speaker 1: lot easier for Washington. H he got Yeah, he got
Speaker 1: nailed for hands to the face. Washington had to win
Speaker 1: it sort of dramatic fashion. But they can't stop anybody. Um,
Speaker 1: and I think the Jets coming off that win, are
Speaker 1: buoyed by it. I think you're giving me the points
Speaker 1: on the Jets again. I would love the three and
Speaker 1: a half more, but I'll take the three in London
Speaker 1: and be pretty happy about it. Fading the Falcons pause.
Speaker 1: I don't I don't know that you're getting three touchdowns
Speaker 1: from Corduall anymore. And I think the Jets, if they're
Speaker 1: if their defense and their and their defense has been
Speaker 1: playing well, they'll key on who can beat them, and uh,
Speaker 1: I don't think Atlanta has multiple players that can. So
Speaker 1: I'll take Jets plus three, Rufus number two, number three,
Speaker 1: whatever we're on with Rufe, he'd be three for Rufus.
Speaker 1: I think I already gave. It's gonna be Todd your
Speaker 1: second that your second was your second pick the Bengals
Speaker 1: are No, Yes, well I didn't think. I guess it
Speaker 1: is he wanted a big stage. Yes, it has to
Speaker 1: be a second pick. Yeah, I don't have anything. I mean,
Speaker 1: I don't have anything better than that. Honestly, I show
Speaker 1: very little value on the board this week's second us.
Speaker 1: None of us do. But we're having a podcast anything,
Speaker 1: We're having a podcast. All right, Todd, what's number two. Now,
Speaker 1: now you're supposed to talk Todd talk when you're supposed
Speaker 1: to go okay, So I'm putting Rufus down for Bengals.
Speaker 1: Plus three is his second pick. Um, My second pick
Speaker 1: is gonna be the Las Vegas Raid as I will
Speaker 1: take the Las Vegas Raid as minus the five and
Speaker 1: a half. And the reason I want the Raid is,
Speaker 1: first of all, I love the fact that they lost
Speaker 1: on on Monday night. And because now people will be like,
Speaker 1: oh wait, maybe the Raiders aren't an't that good? This
Speaker 1: is really because the Bears aren't good on offense. Because
Speaker 1: the Bears went down and scored some points against the
Speaker 1: Lions doesn't mean anything to me, because I don't think
Speaker 1: the Lions can stop anyone. I think Field is gonna
Speaker 1: have trouble even if they bring in dal And I
Speaker 1: don't care what they're doing. They're not good on offense,
Speaker 1: and they're certainly not good on offense. And allowed stadium,
Speaker 1: even if there's only point seven of a home field advantage,
Speaker 1: that Las Vegas stadium is probably pretty wild and and
Speaker 1: and rowdy. And now you're gonna ask just justin Fields
Speaker 1: to go into a rowdy stadium and hang with the
Speaker 1: Raiders and the Bears. The Bears defense is not this
Speaker 1: vaunted defense that it used to be. The Lions were
Speaker 1: inside the ten yard line like literally a hundred times
Speaker 1: when Gil and Mikey were both unfortunate as was I
Speaker 1: had the over in the d game because the Lions
Speaker 1: couldn't score inside the ten yard line against the Bears.
Speaker 1: But the Bear they were moving the football. Don't tell
Speaker 1: me the Raiders can't move the football against the Bears.
Speaker 1: I think they can move the football against the Bears.
Speaker 1: I think the Raiders are above average offense. I'm not
Speaker 1: saying they're amazing, but they're above average offense, and I
Speaker 1: think they will move the ball against the Bears. And
Speaker 1: this is just gonna come down to the fact, I
Speaker 1: don't see how the Bears are gonna stay inside five
Speaker 1: and a half points because I don't think they can
Speaker 1: score enough point. So if they get to seventeen and
Speaker 1: the Raiders are twenty four, you still cover. Give me
Speaker 1: the Raiders minus five and a half Detroit last week,
Speaker 1: just a Butcher's your point first in gold Down seven
Speaker 1: and nothing at the eight, premature shotgun staff hits golf
Speaker 1: and the Gonads Ricochet's over the offensive line and do
Speaker 1: to a bellow Nichols hands uh that goes down as
Speaker 1: a fumble by the center. Fourth and goal at the
Speaker 1: five left in the second quarter, down fourteen and nothing.
Speaker 1: They go for it, Jared, if there's a horrific pass
Speaker 1: to the out to the outside receiver. Third and goal
Speaker 1: of the Chicago three, three or nine left in the
Speaker 1: second quarter, strip sec and then at the end Teasers
Speaker 1: blew it right because they they had a chance crushed
Speaker 1: by getting a third down play within a yard of conversion.
Speaker 1: Same thing we talked about with the Bengals. They of
Speaker 1: all things that could have happened. You don't want to
Speaker 1: do that, right, just kick the field goal. Teasers will win.
Speaker 1: Instead one yard short they go for it and they
Speaker 1: blow it again, or he has to kick the field
Speaker 1: goal there to make it at one position. I don't.
Speaker 1: By the way, the Matt Naggy thing. All of a sudden,
Speaker 1: he's told us up a five thousand times that Andy
Speaker 1: Dalton's gonna be the quarterback of his handy Dalton. Do
Speaker 1: you think Ryan Pace Finally like whispered in his ear,
Speaker 1: somebody somebody did playing. Somebody didn't had to be Maybe
Speaker 1: Virginia MCCASKI, who knows, maybe George Allison somebody did h
Speaker 1: rufus number three? If you have them, I guess who's
Speaker 1: number two? Jesus Christ, Jesus, you know, I'm o you,
Speaker 1: I've got two Tennessee tighter of that sounds like me
Speaker 1: on the golf course with Jeff trying to figure out
Speaker 1: the handicap, like and what like, like what do I need?
Speaker 1: What do I need to make here? Jeff? Jeff gets
Speaker 1: a bad at you. So Mike second k is officially
Speaker 1: Tennessee minus four and a half. That's correct, Okay, no problem,
Speaker 1: all right, number three. If I have to take a third,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Seattle then, oh all right, Seattle. Tonight's
Speaker 1: Seattle plus two and a half. His numbers say otherwise
Speaker 1: that's a teaser, like for make for sure? I think
Speaker 1: most wait do we know? Is uh? What's what's bridgewater
Speaker 1: situation in the concussion protocol? I don't know yet. I
Speaker 1: haven't decided yet. Yeah, yeah, I mean I might not
Speaker 1: like I'm assuming actually assuming that what goes? I mean,
Speaker 1: I like pittsburtty there, but but you know, I don't know.
Speaker 1: If Bridgewater goes, it's no play. If i'd let me
Speaker 1: see what's my number two points? Actually, I probably actually
Speaker 1: know what. We're gonna take away Seattle. There we're gonna
Speaker 1: say Pittsburgh. Sorry, We're gonna go to Pittsburgh because I
Speaker 1: still think. I still think I like Pittsburgh. Even if
Speaker 1: Locke is the quarterback. What about if Rudolph is the quarterback?
Speaker 1: I don't know, what about if it's Rudolph Bridgewater. This
Speaker 1: is my head's about to explode because that's that was
Speaker 1: how was minus one and a half before that. I'm
Speaker 1: taking Pittsburgh. It's my third, not Seattle. Seattle is probably
Speaker 1: gonna win, right. I take the Enzers against Drew lack
Speaker 1: in that because Drew Lawk stinks. But if it's Steady
Speaker 1: Bridgewaters don't want to go against that guy. That guy
Speaker 1: don't make no mistakes in that, We're not gonna be
Speaker 1: able to put the ball on the ends on So
Speaker 1: you know, to me, it's all about the Denver quarterback
Speaker 1: in that. Thank you God, thank you. The rule is
Speaker 1: the rule. I'll take the Carolina Panthers and lay the
Speaker 1: three points against these Eagles. I was gonna do that.
Speaker 1: I can't bet this. This Eagle's team refuses to run
Speaker 1: the ball at all. I don't see to your point
Speaker 1: about Brandon Steely and how you have to run the
Speaker 1: ball just to get established the physicale. They don't. They
Speaker 1: absolutely don't run the ball at all. Zero zero running
Speaker 1: the tips. I don't think Carolina play well in the
Speaker 1: second half against that. Look at Dallas, gonna move the
Speaker 1: ball in anybody. They'll move the ball in the Saints.
Speaker 1: That's a good offensive team. They came back, they made
Speaker 1: that game competitive. I think Matt Rule is building a
Speaker 1: good team in that spot in Carolina, and I think
Speaker 1: this is a bad spot for Philadelphia coming off the
Speaker 1: home lass to have to go on the road here.
Speaker 1: I thought this line would be four, it's three. I'll
Speaker 1: lay it, okay, Mikey, Why is it coming down? That
Speaker 1: was almost my third pick was Carolina. Why is it
Speaker 1: coming down? I don't know. I asked somebody in sports
Speaker 1: media dot number three. My number third pick was gonna
Speaker 1: be Panthers. The only reason I'm not taking the Panther.
Speaker 1: I'm definitely taking the Panthers in my circle millions, because
Speaker 1: to get five picks, you have to come up with something.
Speaker 1: So I'm definitely taking the Panthers. There. But I just
Speaker 1: the only thing that scares me is it's it's a
Speaker 1: one in three team against the three and one team
Speaker 1: and spreads. And I know in the NFL that's always
Speaker 1: a dangerous thing to do because they all revert to
Speaker 1: the mean, almost all of them. So that's why I'm
Speaker 1: not gonna go with Panthers is my number three pick here.
Speaker 1: But what I will take is my number three pick
Speaker 1: is the Ravens under forty six. And um the reason
Speaker 1: I like the Ravens under forty six is because, um wait,
Speaker 1: who I have Ravens against Indiana Cults, right, Ravens under
Speaker 1: forty six against the Colts. I I am not a
Speaker 1: believer in the Colts. I don't believe the fact you
Speaker 1: can go down to Miami and beat a team that
Speaker 1: has absolutely no offense whatsoever means anything at all. I
Speaker 1: am not a believer in the Colts. I still don't
Speaker 1: believe in Carson Wentz. And I think the Ravens defense
Speaker 1: is starting to come around. They really put the clamps
Speaker 1: on Denver last week. And I mean the other games
Speaker 1: where they didn't play as well defensively were against the
Speaker 1: Chiefs and against the Raiders. I gotta kind of throw
Speaker 1: those out as those are above average offensive teams. I
Speaker 1: don't think Indianapolis is above average offensive team. And I
Speaker 1: think this is gonna be one of those old school
Speaker 1: Ravens games where they run the ball a lot, play
Speaker 1: real good defense and win seven or something. So I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go under forty six and uh, I hope that
Speaker 1: I can get there in my third pid Alright, any
Speaker 1: square than I've already been. What's the New England line?
Speaker 1: New England Patriots? Are I have him at night nine? Okay? Um,
Speaker 1: this was the other one on guessing lines. I'll just
Speaker 1: go with my guessing lines instincts. I listen, I'm not
Speaker 1: like Chris Collinsworth and now Michael's ready to like put
Speaker 1: Mac Jones in the Hall of Fame. That was a
Speaker 1: little ridiculous on Sunday night. But this Houston team, as
Speaker 1: long as Davis Mills is the quarterback, and he will
Speaker 1: be the quarterback this week. Still no Trod Taylor yet.
Speaker 1: This Houston team might be one of the worst teams
Speaker 1: we've ever seen in modern history. They are really bereft
Speaker 1: of any talent, with the exception of Brandon Cooks New England.
Speaker 1: This is Bill Belichick versus David Culley. It's a whole
Speaker 1: bunch of points to give away on the road. But
Speaker 1: you know what, I don't like anything else better. So
Speaker 1: I'm taking New England minus the nine and hoping that
Speaker 1: Bill Belichick will figure out a way to blow this
Speaker 1: team out. Are you gonna use New England and survivor? Girl,
Speaker 1: I'm thinking about it. The problem is they have two
Speaker 1: offensive linemen. Now, there covid situation. I don't even think
Speaker 1: the Texans are the worst defense in football? Really, who
Speaker 1: do you think the worst defenses? And then Jacksonville and
Speaker 1: the Texans aren't that bad on defense. They're bad on
Speaker 1: offense right exactly, They're just like abysmal unoffensive right now?
Speaker 1: That is what I was referring. Now, how about you, Todd,
Speaker 1: what are you gonna do? You gonna use Minnesota this week? Well?
Speaker 1: I started like looking at the next couple of weeks,
Speaker 1: and um, I mean, I'd like to use the I'd
Speaker 1: like to use the Cowboys really to be honest, but
Speaker 1: I can't use the Cowboys because I need them for Thanksgiving.
Speaker 1: So I'm not going to use the Cowboys. And I
Speaker 1: don't want to use Tampa Bay here against Miami because
Speaker 1: I need Tampa Bay for later as well. So it
Speaker 1: really comes down to Minnesota against the Lions, which scares
Speaker 1: me because I hate betting on Kirk Cousins and and
Speaker 1: maybe the Panthers. I mean, I don't know. There's a
Speaker 1: lot of options this week and none making feel good
Speaker 1: A great I know you have confidence in yeah, okay,
Speaker 1: what do you do now? To Casey and the Browns
Speaker 1: up to eight? I think this is gonna be a
Speaker 1: tremendous game and we'll see really where both teams are.
Speaker 1: This Brown's defense is nasty. I said, you know, Mac
Speaker 1: Brown and I both like this as our top play
Speaker 1: last week. I saw his second play. I said, Cousins
Speaker 1: had never faced this kind of pressure. After the first drive,
Speaker 1: they never got in the red zone. Again. That Minnesota offense,
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield didn't do anything, not paint enough, zero, couldn't
Speaker 1: hit anybody, couldn't hit anybody running open anywhere. You said
Speaker 1: you got a torn labor in his non throwing shoulder.
Speaker 1: They say no. I was like, we're using that as
Speaker 1: an excuse. I'll take the Browns up to eight and
Speaker 1: the Cowboys down to one. Todd, That's what I'm doing.
Speaker 1: That's exactly the same one I'm doing, Rufus. I'm doing
Speaker 1: because I don't see I don't see the Cowboys losing
Speaker 1: to the Giants. The Cowboys have a have a nice
Speaker 1: looking offense. I mean, this is becoming a juggernaut offense.
Speaker 1: And I just don't see the Giants, you know, hanging
Speaker 1: in the game. Also, the Giants kind of they shot
Speaker 1: their load last week with their ridiculous winner down with
Speaker 1: nine and a half minutes to go, and somehow they
Speaker 1: win that game. I don't even know how they won
Speaker 1: the game. But I'll take Browns plus eight. I think
Speaker 1: the Browns will hang with the Chargers and Cowboys. If
Speaker 1: you're in a draft, King's juristiction or anybody. NFL comeback
Speaker 1: Player of the Year Dak Prescott is only in quotes
Speaker 1: minus one. You almost have to bet that for whatever
Speaker 1: they'll let you bet. Who's the second choice? Joe Burrow?
Speaker 1: What's he coming back from? And in five games they
Speaker 1: don't give comeback Player of the Year for five games.
Speaker 1: It's like a it's like a lifetime achievement thing. Rufus,
Speaker 1: you're too I'm gonna tease the Browns and then with
Speaker 1: Seattle as the Pilots. I'm gonna tease the uh the
Speaker 1: Browns with the New England Patriots down against Houston Brown's
Speaker 1: Patriots for me Seattle plus Seattle plus eight and a
Speaker 1: half in Browns plus eight for Rufus and you are gilt.
Speaker 1: Who do you have? Gil Oh? We have nine on
Speaker 1: the Patriots down to three. I'll still do it. So
Speaker 1: you're going Pats Pats minus three. And what was the
Speaker 1: other one? Brown's Browns plus eight? No, Stanford Loong. Well
Speaker 1: they're on the road anyway, so it would have been
Speaker 1: wong ish um. Okay, So final two questions, big favorite,
Speaker 1: most likely to who's out right? My computer just went down,
Speaker 1: so Bucks, you can read them out for Bucks minus
Speaker 1: ten over the Dolphins, Vikings minus nine over the Lions,
Speaker 1: Patriots minus nine over the Texans, Cowboys minus seven over
Speaker 1: the Giants, Ravens minus seven over the Colts, seen eight
Speaker 1: and a half on the Patriots. Hair. First of all,
Speaker 1: you gotta cut that out because I'm looking here at
Speaker 1: the board. It's not just Circus Circus not the only casino.
Speaker 1: And I made the goddamn rules on this podcast, Todd,
Speaker 1: I know exactly what you're doing. Jesus mother. I mean,
Speaker 1: unless we're gonna be talking about incarnate word tomorrow plus
Speaker 1: the true dads. All right, So who's the most likely
Speaker 1: to lose outright? Of those rufus Vikings Vikings, Vikings. I
Speaker 1: think that the Lions offense did move the ball, as
Speaker 1: you all said, and then weird things happened to the
Speaker 1: ball hitting off Dolf shoulders. That was that was weird.
Speaker 1: That was weird. That was the weirdest thing. That was
Speaker 1: a weird way. Um yeah, I think, yeah, visional matchup,
Speaker 1: not as much on bit advantage, etcetera, etcetera. I agree
Speaker 1: they can, they can and take the Vikings, So I
Speaker 1: can't answer the Vikings is the most likely to lose.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go against you, Jo and say the Patriots,
Speaker 1: I don't know, you've got an offensive lineman out a
Speaker 1: rookie quarterback. I just think it offensive. I think is
Speaker 1: big because it's to your point, none of these picks
Speaker 1: make you feel calmed of them feel good, Todd. You
Speaker 1: know what I'm with you, Mikey. I don't trust the Pats.
Speaker 1: There's just too many passes the Hunter Henry for six yards.
Speaker 1: You gotta go eight hundred players to get down the field.
Speaker 1: I mean not Mac mac Jones. You know, come on, man,
Speaker 1: he's not that great. And the answer is clearly the
Speaker 1: Minnesota Vikings, clearly because I can see Jared Golf doing
Speaker 1: all of a sudden that that offense is feisty enough
Speaker 1: on Detroit. They shouldn't have lost that game last week. Oh,
Speaker 1: I hate Kirk Cousins. I'm with you. I hate Kirk
Speaker 1: just I want to I want to shot of you
Speaker 1: with a Minnesota survivor play when Kirk Cousins is jacking
Speaker 1: it up for you, I'm probably gonna need a sixty
Speaker 1: six yard field goal on the last play of the
Speaker 1: game to beat the Lions again. Okay, last question, because Mike,
Speaker 1: he's got a run bizarro world. You must pick a side.
Speaker 1: You must bet a side in every single one of
Speaker 1: these games, except for one one that you're like, you
Speaker 1: know what, I'll bet these fifteen but this one, man,
Speaker 1: forget it. I'm not betting it with your money. What
Speaker 1: is that game? Rufus Tennessee, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Jacksonville Chief, hear
Speaker 1: your opinions, heard, you know, everybody's opinion here on the
Speaker 1: Urban Meyer situation. I don't know. He's right, Yeah, We
Speaker 1: don't know either, chief spills, chief spills, rufus, rufus. You
Speaker 1: don't know about the urban Mier. But do you have
Speaker 1: a definitive answer on whether it was a half or
Speaker 1: a full lap dance? Oh? Three quarters, Mike, Yeah, I'm
Speaker 1: with you. Chiefs Bills, Chiefs Bills, any outcomes possible. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I can't even teach the Bills update. And because they
Speaker 1: could get blown out in this game as well as
Speaker 1: they can win it, Todd, game you want to part them?
Speaker 1: I don't really want to pick the Packers Bengals game
Speaker 1: because I think the Bengals are feisty, and I don't
Speaker 1: know the Packers either. You know that Aaron Rodgers every
Speaker 1: like once in a while, he just throws a duty
Speaker 1: in there, you know, like against the New Orleans Saints.
Speaker 1: He doesn't really try or something. You never know what
Speaker 1: those Packers, I don't trust them. We're getting to the
Speaker 1: point in the NFL where that question should be rephrased
Speaker 1: the only game you want a part of? Yeah, but
Speaker 1: we're doing a podcast. If you could erase fifteen of
Speaker 1: these but only play one, which Todd before we go, Todd,
Speaker 1: It's we're beginning to baseball playoffs in mass today after
Speaker 1: the two wild card games. Do you have an opinion
Speaker 1: on either league or World Series champion? Well, I I've
Speaker 1: been horrendous in baseball this year, so don't listen to me.
Speaker 1: But I guess if I had to say, like a
Speaker 1: sleeper pick, maybe I maybe think about the Braves as
Speaker 1: a sleeper pick, just because some of their starters are
Speaker 1: not bad. They do hit the ball, and nobody's really
Speaker 1: given him any credits, so you probably get a decent price. Um,
Speaker 1: you know, I don't know. I have a ticket free
Speaker 1: ticket that I got on from DraftKings on on Baseball Champion,
Speaker 1: and I took Houston plus twenty one, so I'll be
Speaker 1: rooting for Houston. You, Mikey, I think it's so wide
Speaker 1: open this year. I don't know what to make of anything. Definitively,
Speaker 1: I got Giants and Rays meeting in the World Series.
Speaker 1: I think the Rays are the best team. Does that
Speaker 1: mean they'll get there? I don't know. What do you
Speaker 1: think about Larus's decision to start Lynn off an injury. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I would have started Ron, but I mean to go righty, lefty, righty.
Speaker 1: I don't know. I played the Astros today, but I
Speaker 1: don't know, you really any concern about the Giants not
Speaker 1: having a bunch of real top line starters. Does that
Speaker 1: concern you, I'll tell you why, because that's that has
Speaker 1: always been the thing, right with baseball playoffs. Hey, the
Speaker 1: Giants in this particular case aren't built like the Brewers
Speaker 1: and say the Dodgers are with front line starting. But really,
Speaker 1: if you think about what has won for baseball teams
Speaker 1: in recent history, and I'm talking about like the last
Speaker 1: two three years, it's just having a whole bunch of
Speaker 1: great pictures and mixing and matching. Whether it was the
Speaker 1: Royals when they did the seven eight nine thing. The
Speaker 1: Rays are the greatest example this, the Rays that figured
Speaker 1: out they've sort of hacked baseball with this. They get
Speaker 1: that they didn't need those three guys. Everyone's like, how
Speaker 1: amazing is this? They lost Morton, they lost uh Glass
Speaker 1: now to the Tommy John two and snow and the
Speaker 1: Rays have figured out that's not what That's not the
Speaker 1: only way to win at baseball. And so I don't
Speaker 1: think I think the Giants have lots of really good pictures,
Speaker 1: So I think people are underestimating them, even in the postseason.
Speaker 1: So you know, and americanly, only the White Sox, if healthy,
Speaker 1: have a great starting rotation. All the teams are mixed
Speaker 1: and match type of deal in the man and then
Speaker 1: actually gets much different because you have the Dodgers and
Speaker 1: the and the Brewers. Literally, though, you're right, any one
Speaker 1: of these anyone could. I would not be surprised if
Speaker 1: any one of these teams won the World Series? Should
Speaker 1: be fun, rufus. Any thoughts on baseball? You you've retired
Speaker 1: from the baseball games, rufus? Do do? College used to
Speaker 1: control our lives? I did? They all not talked about
Speaker 1: this at breakfast yet? Yeah, I used to control our
Speaker 1: lives like it's I took the year off during the pandemic,
Speaker 1: and I've just realized how I didn't miss it at all,
Speaker 1: and I have enough going like I I My problem
Speaker 1: is not having time to fill. I used to sit
Speaker 1: at the hard Rock Mikey watching baseball, and I used
Speaker 1: to question my existence on there if I'm like, why
Speaker 1: I am? How am I gonna care about this? On
Speaker 1: my deathbed, I spent so much time handicapping and watching baseball.
Speaker 1: I was like, no, I can't do this anymore. Rufus,
Speaker 1: how come you don't do college basketball, there's some unbelievable opportunities.
Speaker 1: Do you not like college matter? Are you busy with
Speaker 1: something else? I just have enough? Like you can't do everything? Well,
Speaker 1: that's the thing. Yes, you know, my golf is what
Speaker 1: I make most of my money on, and that's you know,
Speaker 1: I have unabated. I have some other stuff going on too.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's just not enough hours in a day.
Speaker 1: That sounds for me in mental bandwidth. It's how it
Speaker 1: is for me with tennis and doing all the shows
Speaker 1: I do. I just I can't like people like, oh,
Speaker 1: you're sucking at football. Hey man, something had to go.
Speaker 1: First of all, everyone's sucking. Everyone's gonna suck at football,
Speaker 1: even if they're great. As as Roxy Roxborough said to
Speaker 1: me at Piero's years ago, Gil no one wins at
Speaker 1: the NFL long term, No one never forget. I would
Speaker 1: say the end game is not true though yeah this
Speaker 1: is before acast though not true. In a podcast, that's
Speaker 1: right for rufus people. Thank you, Rufus, appreciate it. Man
Speaker 1: Double Duty from yesterday, Todd Wished Ever from his mom's
Speaker 1: cork addic in Pittsburgh. Pia and Mike Palm, co host
Speaker 1: of odds on with a mall show at Visa and
Speaker 1: of course Derrick Stephen's Conciliary and Tim Lawson for hanging
Speaker 1: out on the back. Thank you for listening to the megapod.
Speaker 1: Good luck with your week five picks in the Nation
Speaker 1: Football League.