WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2021 NFL MegaPod Week 5 Preview 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:13.119 Check it down, Man Down Man, Thursday morning, October seven, 0:00:14.360 --> 0:00:19.760 Beating the book podcast megapod live from the d Skill Alexander, 0:00:19.840 --> 0:00:22.520 of course, Staples of the show from our home here 0:00:22.560 --> 0:00:24.800 at the day, the vice president Operations and Circuit Sports, 0:00:25.360 --> 0:00:29.520 Derek Steven's conciliary and man all about town, Mike Paul, 0:00:29.560 --> 0:00:32.760 How you doing, Mikey? Great? Great big week for Circule huh. 0:00:32.880 --> 0:00:35.640 We were named the North American Property of the Year 0:00:36.280 --> 0:00:39.720 G two. We first Nevada Casino would ever win the award? Really, yes, 0:00:39.840 --> 0:00:43.440 you beat out Dotties. We beat out in Choctaw in Oklahoma, 0:00:43.479 --> 0:00:45.720 finished second. I by the minor upset. I had Choctaw 0:00:45.800 --> 0:00:49.400 over us, but we got there. And so congratulations to 0:00:49.560 --> 0:00:52.800 Derreck Stevens and everybody to put the property together. Mazle 0:00:52.880 --> 0:00:55.160 to thank you as my mother would say, thank you. 0:00:55.200 --> 0:00:58.600 And then just thirty minutes ago we launched circuits Sports 0:00:58.640 --> 0:01:01.760 in Iowa. We went lives Yeah another you know. I 0:01:01.840 --> 0:01:05.560 was on Tuesday with Ken Miller and Trent Condon on 0:01:05.920 --> 0:01:09.240 k x N O and des Moines and that they 0:01:09.280 --> 0:01:12.680 interviewed about the launch and at the end Trent Condon said, 0:01:12.720 --> 0:01:16.040 I just want to speak for many many megapod listeners, Mike, 0:01:16.120 --> 0:01:18.600 if you could please ask Todd Wishes just to shut 0:01:18.680 --> 0:01:22.720 up and let you in the guests talk Todd your 0:01:22.800 --> 0:01:27.160 your thoughts. I'm not even going to respond to that nonsense. 0:01:27.280 --> 0:01:32.080 People in Iowa obviously are not the wow taking out 0:01:32.120 --> 0:01:34.600 the whole state. That's Todd Wish. That from his mom's 0:01:34.640 --> 0:01:38.640 cork attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, bulletin boards all over the 0:01:38.680 --> 0:01:41.880 cork behind it. Are you doing, Toddy good? I'm doing 0:01:41.959 --> 0:01:44.680 all right. Ladies and gentlemen, are are rotating guests today 0:01:44.959 --> 0:01:46.600 kind enough to join us on the podcast. I don't 0:01:46.600 --> 0:01:48.520 believe he was on the podcast last year, but he's 0:01:48.520 --> 0:01:50.720 been on the pod years ago, two years ago, many 0:01:50.760 --> 0:01:56.000 times before. Professional better half of the Massy Peabody analytics team, 0:01:56.240 --> 0:01:59.280 co founder of unabated, which you can tell us about 0:01:59.400 --> 0:02:02.280 right now. Rufous Peabody, How you do it, man? I'm 0:02:02.280 --> 0:02:05.320 doing well, Gil. I'm excited to actually get some NFL 0:02:05.360 --> 0:02:07.400 knowledge for from some people that actually know how to 0:02:07.400 --> 0:02:09.600 beat the NFL, because I certainly don't. This year. You're 0:02:09.639 --> 0:02:11.839 having a rough time of it. Yeah, I've I've made 0:02:11.840 --> 0:02:14.200 money every Saturday and lost money every Sunday, which is 0:02:14.240 --> 0:02:16.960 not normal for you, right, that's not like a normal thing. Well, 0:02:17.000 --> 0:02:19.000 it feels like, I mean, NFL has gotten harder and 0:02:19.040 --> 0:02:21.760 harder to beat. I bet, and honestly, I bet nfls 0:02:21.840 --> 0:02:25.000 on in college on Monday. Um, actually I got college 0:02:25.080 --> 0:02:27.519 later in the week as well, but but I don't 0:02:27.520 --> 0:02:29.440 bet it on Monday for NFL and probably not betting it. 0:02:29.639 --> 0:02:32.520 So you grab, you you're basically doing the numbers grab 0:02:32.560 --> 0:02:37.760 early in the week, and the COVID era of information 0:02:37.960 --> 0:02:41.320 coming down to the wire. Not interested, not interesting to 0:02:41.360 --> 0:02:45.160 you in terms of making bets waiting late into the week, right, 0:02:45.200 --> 0:02:46.880 I mean, I feel like there's so many people with 0:02:46.919 --> 0:02:51.359 such good data analyzing the NFL out there that you know, myself, 0:02:51.720 --> 0:02:54.399 with you know, only devoting a little bit of time 0:02:54.440 --> 0:02:57.720 to it. It's just not enough. What are you devoting? 0:02:59.120 --> 0:03:01.679 How about in game? Um? You know, I haven't even 0:03:01.680 --> 0:03:03.680 bet second half this year. That's something I always bet. 0:03:03.720 --> 0:03:05.800 I've been doing second half for college football, but my 0:03:05.880 --> 0:03:08.600 server isn't working properly for NFL second half, and I've 0:03:08.919 --> 0:03:10.840 kind of just been like, Okay, I'll get to it 0:03:10.880 --> 0:03:13.640 next week. It's never been the highest thing on my 0:03:13.720 --> 0:03:15.960 list of priorities for some reason you do college football 0:03:16.000 --> 0:03:18.720 second half though. Yeah. I have been witnessed to Rufus 0:03:18.720 --> 0:03:20.760 on a college football Saturday sitting in front of his 0:03:20.800 --> 0:03:25.520 computer back in the day making multiple college football bets 0:03:25.520 --> 0:03:28.639 too much success. That was always a treat. So tell 0:03:28.720 --> 0:03:31.600 us about Unabated. For those who are unfamiliar with Unabated, 0:03:31.600 --> 0:03:34.399 what you do with the Commissioner Sports Betting Captain Jack 0:03:34.440 --> 0:03:37.440 andrews weird. Yeah, I like that title for him, it 0:03:37.560 --> 0:03:41.080 certainly fits. So Unabated is a venture between with myself, 0:03:41.600 --> 0:03:44.960 Captain Jack and um well, Dan fer Grizio and Matthew Snyder. 0:03:45.160 --> 0:03:46.840 Who are We're all out here for G two E 0:03:46.960 --> 0:03:51.240 actually in Vegas. UM, and it is we provide betting 0:03:51.280 --> 0:03:55.120 tools and education for better is. Basically, we want people 0:03:55.160 --> 0:03:58.160 to be able to quantify their opinions, and we have 0:03:58.240 --> 0:04:02.640 products that make you a better better UM alternate line 0:04:02.680 --> 0:04:07.240 pricing tools, UM. We have a season long NFL simulator 0:04:07.280 --> 0:04:09.200 that you can customize with your own power ratings or 0:04:09.360 --> 0:04:12.400 use a bunch of grading systems out there. UM. I 0:04:12.480 --> 0:04:16.120 think it's as specific as quarterback injury probabilities and backup 0:04:16.200 --> 0:04:20.480 quarterback penalty UM. And recently, while we're launching prop tools 0:04:20.480 --> 0:04:22.720 that allow you to come in with your projections for 0:04:23.080 --> 0:04:27.000 a player, like receiving yards receptions and see what that 0:04:27.040 --> 0:04:29.160 distribution looks like. You know, what's the probability of this 0:04:29.160 --> 0:04:32.560 guy gets a hundred yards? What's shila under seventy seven 0:04:32.560 --> 0:04:35.600 and a half minus one forty or you know under 0:04:35.640 --> 0:04:39.240 seventy three and a half minus one ten? Interesting, so so, 0:04:39.440 --> 0:04:42.039 and it's all free at unabated dot com for now, 0:04:42.160 --> 0:04:45.800 for now, unfree, free and unabated. But just an example, 0:04:46.160 --> 0:04:48.480 if if Team A is favorite over Team B by 0:04:48.520 --> 0:04:51.200 seven points, alternate line seven a half eight, eight and a 0:04:51.160 --> 0:04:53.560 a half nine, so on and so forth, it will 0:04:53.600 --> 0:04:56.200 allow you to sort of determine what the best bet 0:04:56.200 --> 0:04:59.400 of the bunches is that one possible application. Yeah, there's 0:04:59.400 --> 0:05:01.719 a compare line school you put in okay, you put 0:05:01.720 --> 0:05:03.640 in two lines, and tells you which one is better. 0:05:03.720 --> 0:05:06.600 But there's and there's different things, so people will gravitate 0:05:06.640 --> 0:05:10.000 towards what sort of resonates with them. There's different ways 0:05:10.040 --> 0:05:12.560 to use on a beta. It's really interesting. Um. And 0:05:12.560 --> 0:05:14.480 I was saying when you and Captain Jack were on 0:05:14.480 --> 0:05:16.960 on a numbers game yesterday on Visa, I was saying, 0:05:17.160 --> 0:05:19.360 I'm sure there's tons of betters out here. We're listening 0:05:19.360 --> 0:05:21.560 to the megapon right now. Who hear that and say 0:05:21.800 --> 0:05:24.520 this sounds awesome. I really want to be a better better, 0:05:25.120 --> 0:05:28.040 but it sounds like it might be too complicated for 0:05:28.160 --> 0:05:31.760 me to them. You would say what I would say? Well, 0:05:32.000 --> 0:05:36.600 first off, um, is it complicated to put two lines 0:05:36.640 --> 0:05:38.360 in and see which one is better? And it will 0:05:38.400 --> 0:05:40.000 tell you which one is better? Now, I mean if 0:05:40.040 --> 0:05:44.440 you so, I think, regardless of how sophisticated you are 0:05:44.560 --> 0:05:47.640 or want to be, if you want to save money, um, 0:05:47.760 --> 0:05:49.880 you can save. We have tools that basically will help 0:05:49.920 --> 0:05:53.520 you execute that a better prices and save money that way. Um. 0:05:53.800 --> 0:05:56.320 But what we want to do Captain Jack loves this 0:05:56.400 --> 0:05:59.200 term aspirational sharp and I think it's fantastic too. But 0:05:59.520 --> 0:06:01.120 I think that's who were catering to. And we want 0:06:01.120 --> 0:06:04.159 to sort of help, um, help better, sort of move 0:06:04.240 --> 0:06:07.080 up that ladder. And and we we don't want to teach. 0:06:07.279 --> 0:06:08.480 We don't want to give him man of fish. We 0:06:08.480 --> 0:06:10.560 want to teach a man to fish. Or I've heard 0:06:11.040 --> 0:06:15.680 person wish Yeah, yeah, I like it. Aspirational betters, aspirational 0:06:15.800 --> 0:06:20.120 sharps exactly aspirational do you have anything but the acid aspirational. 0:06:21.000 --> 0:06:23.680 Do you have anything for aspirational radio hosts? Because there's 0:06:23.720 --> 0:06:26.599 a man to your left who is aspirational. He's a 0:06:26.680 --> 0:06:29.679 sort of mediocre. He'd like to get that. Well, all 0:06:29.760 --> 0:06:32.160 I want to say is I'm here for you if 0:06:32.200 --> 0:06:34.279 you were not here, you know. I was like, I 0:06:34.360 --> 0:06:36.120 was going to tell Gil no, but then he said, 0:06:36.160 --> 0:06:39.680 Todd wishnup. I was like, yeah, I'm in. I mean 0:06:40.240 --> 0:06:42.560 Todd wish to that have aspirational sharp Todd, you are 0:06:42.640 --> 0:06:46.880 the podcast stenographer, and uh I am the one falling 0:06:46.920 --> 0:06:50.200 further and further behind. What do you got, Killy the 0:06:50.240 --> 0:06:54.000 ice man with a nice delicious one and two? You 0:06:54.120 --> 0:06:56.800 gotta like it, just keep fading. The gil Meister he 0:06:56.960 --> 0:07:00.120 was now last week I was I told him he 0:07:00.160 --> 0:07:02.360 was fortunate, and when he was unfortunate on one of 0:07:02.400 --> 0:07:04.800 his wins, let's give him, uh, you know, some kind 0:07:04.839 --> 0:07:09.080 of compensatory, you know, clapping or something, because his Lions 0:07:09.160 --> 0:07:12.080 pick did not deserve to lose. They were inside the 0:07:12.120 --> 0:07:14.800 five yard line a hundred and fifty times and could 0:07:14.840 --> 0:07:18.600 not score. Mikey also lost on that, So you guys 0:07:18.640 --> 0:07:21.960 got unfortunate after being fortunate the week before. But Anyways, 0:07:21.960 --> 0:07:24.080 Guilt falls to four and eight with his one and two, 0:07:24.120 --> 0:07:27.480 but his teasers continue to roll on at four and oh, 0:07:27.520 --> 0:07:29.800 which is really the only important thing because anybody who 0:07:29.800 --> 0:07:32.600 would bet the spreads pre game is an idiot, so 0:07:32.720 --> 0:07:35.960 you know, four no teasers. Great job, Gilly. Mikey with 0:07:36.080 --> 0:07:40.520 a strong two in one week um with the Packers 0:07:40.520 --> 0:07:43.240 and Browns two winners. He moves to seven and five, 0:07:43.360 --> 0:07:46.920 although he lost his teaser with the Tight Titans because 0:07:46.960 --> 0:07:50.040 the Titans too, I had a four team teaser and 0:07:50.040 --> 0:07:53.520 that was the loser. So Mikey falls to two and 0:07:53.640 --> 0:07:57.160 two the teasers, and then the great One himself has 0:07:57.200 --> 0:07:59.920 a bad one in two weeks, but still stays tied 0:08:00.120 --> 0:08:03.680 for first at seven and five and also four no 0:08:03.840 --> 0:08:06.440 and teasers. That's me seven and five and four no 0:08:06.600 --> 0:08:10.000 and teasers, and we move on. How did how did 0:08:10.000 --> 0:08:13.000 our guest spot do? Yet? Last week our guest spot 0:08:13.080 --> 0:08:16.320 was Matt Brown. He had the Ravens a winner, the 0:08:16.360 --> 0:08:20.200 Browns a winner, and Dallas a winner. Clean and you 0:08:20.320 --> 0:08:23.280 also had the teaser correct with the Chiefs in the bus. 0:08:23.440 --> 0:08:27.760 Matt Brown clean sheet co host Time Action MSG plus 0:08:28.080 --> 0:08:32.240 that I do uh week nights with Kelly Bidlin as well. Okay, 0:08:32.280 --> 0:08:37.040 so then Mikey Circuit Million, Circus Survivor, Circus Survivor. People 0:08:37.080 --> 0:08:39.880 continue not to put in their entries. All time record 0:08:40.040 --> 0:08:42.720 nineteen people didn't put in their entry. How do weeks? 0:08:43.120 --> 0:08:46.720 What is that? Somebody needs to invest some money like 0:08:46.800 --> 0:08:49.040 Rupus has in his website and do a thirty for 0:08:49.160 --> 0:08:51.800 thirty on this and go to all these people that 0:08:51.840 --> 0:08:54.080 didn't over the years put in these picks. It gets 0:08:54.120 --> 0:08:56.320 more and more ludicrous. What if I told you? What 0:08:56.360 --> 0:08:59.640 if I told you? It's so now three straight weeks 0:08:59.720 --> 0:09:02.680 the largest knockout is the ones that didn't put one in, right, 0:09:02.760 --> 0:09:04.960 we we we lost four oh nine with the Saints, 0:09:04.960 --> 0:09:08.600 one fifty one with the Titans, nineteen the Medals, four Dolphins, 0:09:08.600 --> 0:09:11.880 one Vikings. We we lost exactly twenty percent of the 0:09:11.880 --> 0:09:16.000 remaining entrance went from seventeen to thirty three. So it 0:09:16.040 --> 0:09:18.040 should be it should be noted, and it was great 0:09:18.040 --> 0:09:20.400 that the Giants and Jets both with the upsets over 0:09:20.440 --> 0:09:23.680 the Saints and the Titans respectively in overtime, but it 0:09:23.679 --> 0:09:26.720 should be noted that there with all those eliminations, there 0:09:26.760 --> 0:09:29.880 are still more people alive in Survivor right now, this 0:09:29.960 --> 0:09:32.880 year than there were in the entire survivor pool. Last 0:09:32.960 --> 0:09:37.080 year there were nine. There's a thousand more. Yeah, so 0:09:37.240 --> 0:09:44.520 how many people relatives exactly started and now are left? 0:09:45.320 --> 0:09:48.520 So after four, after four weeks, you know we've knocked 0:09:48.559 --> 0:09:53.320 out last year last year lower last year because everyone 0:09:53.360 --> 0:09:56.040 lost the Colts and we want thirty three lost. A 0:09:56.120 --> 0:09:58.160 third of the people had the coltson Week one last 0:09:58.200 --> 0:10:01.000 year was down quick. I want to know if anybody, like, 0:10:01.040 --> 0:10:03.440 did anybody pick the Texans last week? I mean, what's 0:10:03.480 --> 0:10:07.280 the dumbest Oh, we've seen some ridiculous ones, like people 0:10:07.320 --> 0:10:12.880 thinking that they're some of this is to wait. They 0:10:13.040 --> 0:10:15.920 use opposite sides of the same game to advance the 0:10:15.960 --> 0:10:18.160 pick of two teams they think they'll never use again. 0:10:18.920 --> 0:10:21.200 That's called the double option that Derek promotes. I'm not 0:10:21.240 --> 0:10:25.000 too sure. No, no, somebody did it. Somebody used their 0:10:25.040 --> 0:10:27.880 six entries and did three Browns and three Texans in 0:10:27.920 --> 0:10:30.640 week two. Yeah. Wow, if you think the Texans are 0:10:30.640 --> 0:10:32.080 gonna went to stay away from the game and let 0:10:32.080 --> 0:10:35.000 everybody get slaughtered with the Browns, this is this again, 0:10:35.720 --> 0:10:37.839 this again. I keep trying to say this to to 0:10:37.920 --> 0:10:43.160 people know who listen. Anything beyond one entry. It is 0:10:43.280 --> 0:10:49.520 not proportional to your advantage. No, everyone is. If you 0:10:49.559 --> 0:10:52.080 have six entries, you do not have six times the 0:10:52.160 --> 0:10:55.720 chance because people do not play anything but that remaining 0:10:55.760 --> 0:10:58.120 one optimally. I have a stand on this gill though, 0:10:58.200 --> 0:11:00.800 because one of our friends asked about this, because he's 0:11:00.840 --> 0:11:04.240 in this group. Three and eleven people bought six entries 0:11:04.280 --> 0:11:07.840 this year. Okay, of those three eleven, sixty of those 0:11:07.880 --> 0:11:10.439 still have six entries alive, which our friend does. All 0:11:10.480 --> 0:11:14.240 our friend does, he asked about. But and here's the thing. 0:11:14.679 --> 0:11:20.400 He thinks that somehow he is that it doesn't matter. 0:11:20.720 --> 0:11:23.360 By the time we get to Thanksgiving, Let's see how 0:11:23.400 --> 0:11:25.800 many entries they all have left. That's what I'm saying. 0:11:26.400 --> 0:11:28.800 If if you do have six left, then I mean 0:11:29.000 --> 0:11:33.160 you're in a great spot. And his argument is you 0:11:33.200 --> 0:11:35.679 need those six to get through Thanksgiving and Christmas? You do, 0:11:35.960 --> 0:11:38.280 or to give you some back? Did you understand my point? 0:11:38.600 --> 0:11:41.559 He's not playing them all the same way by definition. 0:11:42.240 --> 0:11:45.280 By definition, that means you are not playing it the 0:11:45.320 --> 0:11:47.840 same way you would play with one. And so it 0:11:47.960 --> 0:11:50.920 is a bit of a face givings too far out 0:11:51.080 --> 0:11:53.440 for this to matter, is what I'm saying. Some people 0:11:53.520 --> 0:11:55.760 ultimately get there with two entries left. Right, Christmas is 0:11:55.800 --> 0:11:58.040 really far out to the people that are saving for Christmas. 0:11:58.080 --> 0:12:00.560 Last year, remember when Dr Dmyer's power were ranked at 0:12:00.559 --> 0:12:03.200 the end and I was third. There was like two 0:12:03.240 --> 0:12:06.600 different people with two entries left. Those are the people 0:12:06.640 --> 0:12:08.480 that have an advantage at the end. But right now 0:12:10.960 --> 0:12:15.840 do you agree with yeah? Well multiple yes, at the end. 0:12:16.840 --> 0:12:19.120 I started looking at the grid because this week is 0:12:19.200 --> 0:12:23.640 very difficult, um and it starts getting really really dice 0:12:23.720 --> 0:12:26.440 even uh in the next couple of weeks, I agree 0:12:26.480 --> 0:12:29.559 of like who's available and who you could take. I mean, 0:12:29.600 --> 0:12:31.360 I think I'm going to be forced to take either 0:12:31.400 --> 0:12:34.240 the Vikings this week or maybe even the Carolina Panthers, 0:12:34.679 --> 0:12:38.120 because you know, like I, I know I want Dallas 0:12:38.160 --> 0:12:41.200 for Thanksgiving, so I have to save those guys. And 0:12:41.240 --> 0:12:42.960 then there's other teams you have to save if you 0:12:42.960 --> 0:12:45.200 look at the grid, because there are some weeks there 0:12:45.280 --> 0:12:47.480 is nothing. And let me tell you something, thanks Giving, 0:12:47.520 --> 0:12:51.400 the Sunday of Thanksgiving is gonna be insane because if 0:12:51.440 --> 0:12:53.800 you look at the games, everyone's thinking you gotta get 0:12:53.800 --> 0:12:56.040 through Thanksgiving. You also have to get through the Sunday, 0:12:56.040 --> 0:12:58.600 which doesn't have as many games, and all those games 0:12:58.600 --> 0:13:01.360 are tough as hell. Andy, who's like gritting it out 0:13:01.360 --> 0:13:03.760 and mapping it at this point? I said it before 0:13:03.760 --> 0:13:05.480 the season. I was like, you're kidding yourself if you're 0:13:05.480 --> 0:13:07.199 doing it at this point, because you don't know you 0:13:07.240 --> 0:13:11.160 and Todd are both alive with your one entry, correct, Todd, Todd, 0:13:11.160 --> 0:13:14.440 who'd you have last week? Last week? I survived with 0:13:14.480 --> 0:13:19.199 the Kansas City Chiefs, and that's right, I had Cincinnati. 0:13:19.640 --> 0:13:23.640 Todd was sad Cincinnati rally to nine people knocked out. 0:13:23.679 --> 0:13:26.160 We're all rooting against each other and the circle million three. 0:13:26.200 --> 0:13:28.080 Just because the quarter ended the first four weeks with 0:13:28.160 --> 0:13:31.480 a quarter, now it's a five week quarter. Five people 0:13:31.520 --> 0:13:34.439 tied at eighteen and two going into Monday night. There 0:13:34.480 --> 0:13:36.320 was one guy that had a shot. He had the Raiders. 0:13:36.360 --> 0:13:39.880 He could have been nineteen and one and one hundred 0:13:39.840 --> 0:13:42.080 and seventy one thousand. But as it ends up, the 0:13:42.120 --> 0:13:43.840 guy that was fifteen and I went three and two, 0:13:43.840 --> 0:13:46.120 and four other people end up eighteen and two. They 0:13:46.160 --> 0:13:49.800 split first, second, and third. They each got forty nine thousand, 0:13:49.880 --> 0:13:52.040 three fifty and on the bottom end, two entries went 0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:55.600 three and seventeen. They split the five each new quarter begins, 0:13:55.640 --> 0:14:00.880 new quarter begins. Now the extra is the final quarter, 0:14:01.320 --> 0:14:04.280 the extra week. There's two extra weeks, right, so it's 0:14:04.320 --> 0:14:06.840 the second and fourth quarters are five weeks long. Okay, 0:14:07.080 --> 0:14:10.160 good to know, Todd, you're thirteen and seven. Yes, seven, 0:14:10.160 --> 0:14:14.240 I am tied like place all the way to nine. 0:14:16.400 --> 0:14:22.960 It's impressive. Good luck, good luck. That's all value these days. 0:14:25.160 --> 0:14:28.960 All right, Uh, let's do best bets. No before we 0:14:29.000 --> 0:14:30.840 do that Thursday night. I don't know if it's anybody's 0:14:30.840 --> 0:14:34.000 best bet, but tonight there is a game rams uh 0:14:34.040 --> 0:14:37.320 and the Seahawks Rams on the road favored by two 0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:42.080 and a half against Superman Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. Rufus, 0:14:42.120 --> 0:14:44.440 did you have any thoughts on this game at all? 0:14:44.560 --> 0:14:46.440 You know, I don't know if I have intelligent thoughts, 0:14:46.480 --> 0:14:49.600 but my numbers actually made the Seahawks a small favorite, 0:14:49.640 --> 0:14:52.560 although again it depends what are you using for home field? 0:14:53.760 --> 0:14:55.960 Depends on home field advantage right now, because I think 0:14:55.960 --> 0:14:58.800 the Rams are a slightly better team, but you know, 0:14:59.160 --> 0:15:03.080 mark like less than a point better. Um, I'm using 0:15:03.120 --> 0:15:06.360 two points for this game. That's but this is this 0:15:06.440 --> 0:15:08.000 is kind of the art of betting in a way. 0:15:08.080 --> 0:15:12.520 This is not necessarily science, like this is regress zero. UM. 0:15:12.560 --> 0:15:15.920 I was who was I talking with um earlier this 0:15:15.960 --> 0:15:18.040 week about home field advantage? I think it was Chris 0:15:18.160 --> 0:15:21.080 List on the Serious X Down Fantasy UM radio spot, 0:15:21.160 --> 0:15:25.040 And there was no home field advantage in two thousand nineteen. 0:15:25.360 --> 0:15:27.440 I didn't know this, like he he said he had 0:15:27.480 --> 0:15:30.200 heard the right two thousand nineteen, there was no home 0:15:30.240 --> 0:15:32.800 field advantage I and I like literally quickly pulled up 0:15:33.120 --> 0:15:36.680 data set. I was like regression of score differential on 0:15:37.560 --> 0:15:39.760 dummy variables for team and opponent and whether the teams 0:15:39.760 --> 0:15:43.960 at home. And certainly it was a very small negative number. UM. 0:15:44.000 --> 0:15:46.560 You know, we always say home field has been decreasing 0:15:46.600 --> 0:15:48.840 over time, but it kind of like fell off a 0:15:48.880 --> 0:15:51.200 cliff in two thousand nineteen and then two there no 0:15:51.280 --> 0:15:53.960 fans and it was you know, point one five points 0:15:54.040 --> 0:15:55.880 or something like that, and then this year it's basically 0:15:55.880 --> 0:15:58.200 been nothing too. What is your theorist why it fell 0:15:58.200 --> 0:15:59.880 off a cliff? Then? I don't know. I mean, what 0:16:00.160 --> 0:16:02.840 my theory to why college football team start with the 0:16:02.920 --> 0:16:07.120 letter oh? Covered a clip over fifteen years with six 0:16:07.360 --> 0:16:11.440 d observations like but but that is truly ridiculous that 0:16:11.520 --> 0:16:14.600 what what There's got to be something to this, right Well, 0:16:15.720 --> 0:16:17.720 I don't know. I mean I think there was last year, 0:16:17.960 --> 0:16:20.240 for sure. I mean, you and I root for a 0:16:20.280 --> 0:16:23.280 team that clearly has had no home field advantage in 0:16:23.320 --> 0:16:25.200 a decade, right like we could see that with our 0:16:25.240 --> 0:16:29.280 own eyes because of a curse. You and I actually 0:16:29.320 --> 0:16:31.120 had it to give a famous exchange on this show 0:16:31.160 --> 0:16:33.800 about Seattle crowd years ago. I don't know if you 0:16:33.800 --> 0:16:35.760 remember it where I said, oh, rufus, it's a huge 0:16:35.760 --> 0:16:37.880 home field advantage. I went to a game. I couldn't 0:16:37.880 --> 0:16:39.720 hear the guy next to me, and you said to me, Gil, 0:16:39.760 --> 0:16:41.520 really you went to one game and you've decided that 0:16:41.560 --> 0:16:44.360 it's a massive home field advantage. But that is a 0:16:44.400 --> 0:16:48.160 stadium Seattle where it is sort of conventional wisdom that 0:16:48.200 --> 0:16:50.280 it's this massive home field advantage. And yet you're even 0:16:50.320 --> 0:16:53.480 saying there, you're giving it a nod of two points. 0:16:53.480 --> 0:16:56.040 So so it's a greater home that advantage than most. 0:16:56.320 --> 0:16:58.080 And the big reason for me is because of the 0:16:58.080 --> 0:17:01.680 geographical location at Seattle that travel to travel, it's longer travel. 0:17:02.000 --> 0:17:06.000 It's yeah, not the crowd noise, not travel to travel. 0:17:06.160 --> 0:17:09.760 And although I'll say being a divisional game less home 0:17:09.840 --> 0:17:13.720 for the advantage, like historically that's been the case a 0:17:13.800 --> 0:17:16.800 divisional games because there's more familiarity this. You know, the 0:17:16.920 --> 0:17:20.000 Rams go there once a year. They're used to you know, 0:17:20.000 --> 0:17:22.480 players are used to that routine of coming into that stadium. 0:17:22.520 --> 0:17:25.560 It's not there. Yeah, So with would that trigger a 0:17:25.560 --> 0:17:28.760 bet on Seattle? Though? For you your your your projection, Well, 0:17:28.920 --> 0:17:30.960 this line opened it a pick and so it's kind 0:17:30.960 --> 0:17:33.280 of moved up and we moved towards the Rams, like 0:17:33.680 --> 0:17:36.080 you know, two points are worth the time. Um, And 0:17:36.119 --> 0:17:37.720 as I said, it's not Monday, so I'm probably not 0:17:37.760 --> 0:17:39.520 going about it. If you know, if it gets to three, 0:17:39.520 --> 0:17:43.240 I might just just for you know, yeah, um, or 0:17:43.280 --> 0:17:44.960 if I see a good like alt price or something 0:17:45.000 --> 0:17:47.840 like that. Um, that's kind of where I would where 0:17:47.840 --> 0:17:49.760 I would go. Or if I had to like to 0:17:49.800 --> 0:17:52.560 tease it with, I guess. So yeah, it is a question. 0:17:52.640 --> 0:17:54.560 Is that a good Seattle teaser? Like I mean that 0:17:54.680 --> 0:17:56.880 that feels kind of teaser? Is shi now at this point? 0:17:57.080 --> 0:17:59.680 And you know I read somewhere that Russell Wilson is 0:17:59.760 --> 0:18:03.360 nine in one on Thursday Night Football. Historically, he said 0:18:03.359 --> 0:18:05.800 he prides himself and how he prepares in a short week. 0:18:06.000 --> 0:18:09.679 Is there anything to that? He says, He prides himself urface, 0:18:10.400 --> 0:18:12.639 But I want to ask you guys all and that 0:18:12.680 --> 0:18:17.080 includes dot over you know, Yonder in Pittsburgh. What what? What? 0:18:17.080 --> 0:18:18.879 What do you make home field advantage this year for 0:18:18.880 --> 0:18:22.680 an average team? One point of seven? Is the word? 0:18:22.800 --> 0:18:25.080 Is the number that gets thrown around? Yeah, I think 0:18:25.080 --> 0:18:29.880 it's too to what Chris Andrews say. He only gives 0:18:29.880 --> 0:18:33.400 two teams the full three on your show, Yeah, Seattle 0:18:33.520 --> 0:18:35.840 and Green Bay. He gives three two? Was three what 0:18:35.920 --> 0:18:39.200 he used to give for every every problem for everybody. 0:18:39.600 --> 0:18:41.959 I mean, what year is that? Well, it could be 0:18:42.000 --> 0:18:45.199 anywhere from dinner the late eighties on? Right? Isn't it 0:18:45.240 --> 0:18:48.520 also matter where the where the line would be prior 0:18:48.560 --> 0:18:50.920 to the giving for the home So for instance, if 0:18:51.200 --> 0:18:53.320 if you were five and a half points better than 0:18:53.359 --> 0:18:55.760 a team and now you're getting one and a half 0:18:55.760 --> 0:18:57.639 for the home now you get to go over seven, 0:18:57.880 --> 0:19:00.680 Like I feel like that has to be part of 0:19:00.720 --> 0:19:03.960 the equation, like getting near the key numbers on the 0:19:04.040 --> 0:19:06.159 home field, You know what I mean, That's why we 0:19:06.160 --> 0:19:10.359 said average. I hear you, okay, fair enough. Top refuses 0:19:10.400 --> 0:19:14.879 to answer the question I see I who knows, I 0:19:14.880 --> 0:19:17.240 mean this NFL nonsense. You've got to just played in game. 0:19:17.280 --> 0:19:19.520 It's ridiculous. Yeah, but I sit here. I used to 0:19:19.520 --> 0:19:21.680 sit here on a Sunday and be able to pick 0:19:21.720 --> 0:19:23.959 off six or eight end game betside like I sit here. 0:19:24.000 --> 0:19:26.880 The last two weeks, I made exactly two bets. It's 0:19:26.920 --> 0:19:29.639 just too hard. It's just too hard to find that 0:19:29.720 --> 0:19:33.040 where you think there's value in these game props that 0:19:33.080 --> 0:19:35.320 are are are fun. Not here. If you were in 0:19:35.359 --> 0:19:38.600 Nevada though, you're in the you're in the you're in 0:19:38.640 --> 0:19:41.560 the dark age, but you can you know, there are 0:19:41.600 --> 0:19:44.399 places where you can bet the running backs, you know, 0:19:44.480 --> 0:19:47.800 not the you know under and over on that passing 0:19:47.840 --> 0:19:50.639 and all this stuff as the game's going on. It's incredible. 0:19:50.800 --> 0:19:53.040 But the truth is a lot of those props are 0:19:53.040 --> 0:19:55.520 really bets on the game in a sense because you have, 0:19:55.680 --> 0:19:57.399 like if you're gonna bet the running back under it 0:19:57.480 --> 0:19:59.200 because you think that the other team is gonna have 0:19:59.200 --> 0:20:01.679 to throw because they're a hind. All that other stuff 0:20:01.760 --> 0:20:04.720 is really coming into the proper handicapped as well. By 0:20:04.720 --> 0:20:06.199 the way, this has nothing to do with anything, but 0:20:06.200 --> 0:20:09.119 did you say, did you hear that Brandon Stanley minute 0:20:09.440 --> 0:20:11.800 and change that why you need to run the football 0:20:12.040 --> 0:20:15.800 that I thought brilliant, brilliant. Give him coach of the year. 0:20:15.840 --> 0:20:18.800 Now if you, by the way, you send that back 0:20:18.800 --> 0:20:22.200 to the seventies and eighties the pants what what? What 0:20:22.400 --> 0:20:25.000 number in terms of a game do you give the 0:20:25.119 --> 0:20:28.520 Chargers this year having him as the coach as opposed 0:20:28.560 --> 0:20:31.480 to Anthony Lynn last year. I mean, dude, it's already 0:20:31.520 --> 0:20:35.040 one at least, I think Anthony Lynn got a rod deal. 0:20:35.520 --> 0:20:37.960 Do you I think Anthony Lynn was a better coach 0:20:37.960 --> 0:20:40.560 than people give him credit for a better head coach? Yeah, 0:20:40.680 --> 0:20:43.440 I think I think we see the in game stuff, yes, 0:20:43.600 --> 0:20:45.800