1 00:00:02,000 --> 00:00:06,240 Speaker 1: Live from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound On. 2 00:00:07,440 --> 00:00:09,959 Speaker 1: We want to get people back to work. We've got 3 00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:12,840 Speaker 1: to be paiding the path weak. It is up to 4 00:00:12,960 --> 00:00:15,160 Speaker 1: Congress to kind of set the rules of the roads. 5 00:00:15,240 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 1: But you have to wonder what Facebook final objective Isn't 6 00:00:18,680 --> 00:00:23,439 Speaker 1: that Floomberg sound on Politics, policy and perspective from DC's 7 00:00:23,520 --> 00:00:26,720 Speaker 1: tough name. If they just simply reopen the economy and 8 00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:28,800 Speaker 1: returned everyone back to work, we would be, I think 9 00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:32,240 Speaker 1: in a better situation. Today Washington may squander it's best 10 00:00:32,360 --> 00:00:36,040 Speaker 1: chance to make long overdue investments in our infrastructure. Bloomberg 11 00:00:36,200 --> 00:00:41,919 Speaker 1: Sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. It's Christmas 12 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:45,199 Speaker 1: Eve for political junkies. Thanks for joining us on this 13 00:00:45,840 --> 00:00:49,800 Speaker 1: off off election day of the fastest hour in politics, 14 00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:52,680 Speaker 1: as we gather some of the smartest minds to make 15 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:55,840 Speaker 1: sense of the races that count today, starting with the 16 00:00:55,880 --> 00:00:58,880 Speaker 1: Bellweather of Virginia and a governor's race they're too close 17 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:01,320 Speaker 1: to call going into this election night. Will consider the 18 00:01:01,360 --> 00:01:04,479 Speaker 1: outcomes and tell you what to watch with poster David 19 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:08,240 Speaker 1: Paleo Logos, head of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, 20 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:10,840 Speaker 1: to help us drill down on the other races that 21 00:01:10,880 --> 00:01:13,200 Speaker 1: matter as well, from New Jersey to New York City 22 00:01:13,240 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 1: to Boston, where history will be made tonight no matter 23 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:18,319 Speaker 1: who wins the mayor's race. Will get into that more 24 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:22,520 Speaker 1: later with political analyst John Keller. The original panel is 25 00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:27,240 Speaker 1: in place. Sploomberg Politics contributors Genie Schanzano and Rick Davis 26 00:01:27,240 --> 00:01:30,399 Speaker 1: are with us for the hour and welcome officially to 27 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:35,959 Speaker 1: election day, this time of vote, this time of blood. 28 00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:41,520 Speaker 1: That's it, with the help of Lizzo. I hope you 29 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:43,640 Speaker 1: did get out to vote. Maybe you're on your way now. 30 00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:46,959 Speaker 1: But we live for days like this election days here 31 00:01:46,959 --> 00:01:49,440 Speaker 1: at Sound On because it's true. Elections do count. They 32 00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 1: drive the policies that impact your life. And after all, 33 00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:54,680 Speaker 1: this is the fun part. So let's get into a 34 00:01:54,760 --> 00:01:58,920 Speaker 1: beginning with Virginia this hour. President Biden still overseas, as 35 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:00,920 Speaker 1: you heard a short time ago on Bloomberg Radio at 36 00:02:00,920 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 1: the UN Climate Summit, which they're now wrapping up, he 37 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:07,720 Speaker 1: just predicted a win for a Democrat, Terry mccauliffe. We're 38 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:11,960 Speaker 1: gonna win. I think we're gonna win in Virginia. And 39 00:02:12,040 --> 00:02:15,080 Speaker 1: you know you're reported at being close. The race is 40 00:02:15,160 --> 00:02:18,560 Speaker 1: very close. It's about who shows up, who turns out, 41 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 1: And granted I did win by a large margin, but 42 00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:25,079 Speaker 1: the point of the matter is that I think that 43 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:27,480 Speaker 1: this is this is gonna be. We all knew from 44 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:29,720 Speaker 1: the beginning it's gonna be a tight race. Yeah, well 45 00:02:29,720 --> 00:02:32,520 Speaker 1: that's true. He did win by ten percentage points, not 46 00:02:32,639 --> 00:02:36,200 Speaker 1: that you should be surprised by his prediction. After Terry 47 00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:39,560 Speaker 1: mccaulliffe and Republican Glen Yuncan delivered their closing arguments here 48 00:02:39,639 --> 00:02:44,440 Speaker 1: last night, Glenn Duncan is closing his event with Donald 49 00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:48,360 Speaker 1: Trump here in Virginia where he brought the hatred, the 50 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:51,840 Speaker 1: divisiveness that Donald Trump brought to this country. And it 51 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:54,799 Speaker 1: is a disgrace, a defining moment where we get to 52 00:02:54,960 --> 00:02:58,360 Speaker 1: stand up and say no to this left liberal, progressive 53 00:02:58,360 --> 00:03:00,920 Speaker 1: agenda that is trying to take us out there. It 54 00:03:01,040 --> 00:03:03,959 Speaker 1: is the two candidates in the Washington suburbs of northern Virginia. 55 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:08,440 Speaker 1: We're a strong turnout today could decide this election. And 56 00:03:08,600 --> 00:03:11,120 Speaker 1: for a better sense of where things stand and what 57 00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:14,480 Speaker 1: we should be watching, we are now joined as promised 58 00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:18,040 Speaker 1: by David Paley Logos, director of the Suffolk University Political 59 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:20,440 Speaker 1: Research Center. It's great to have you, David, it wouldn't 60 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:22,639 Speaker 1: be election day without you, and I know you have 61 00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:25,200 Speaker 1: this race essentially tied a week ago. What is your 62 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:28,560 Speaker 1: data show going into this election. Yeah, so in our poll, 63 00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:33,960 Speaker 1: we had a difference of zero point four with UH 64 00:03:34,440 --> 00:03:37,720 Speaker 1: Democrat Terry mcculloff slightly ahead, well within the margin of 65 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 1: very five undecided. That tends to break against an incumbent, 66 00:03:42,320 --> 00:03:46,280 Speaker 1: and mccauliffe is a de facto incumbent and the third 67 00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:50,280 Speaker 1: candidate who's on the ballot, Princess Blending, getting little bit 68 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:53,600 Speaker 1: under two percent. So if you look at most of 69 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:58,200 Speaker 1: the polling, it's anywhere between mccaulliffe lead of three percent 70 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:02,600 Speaker 1: to a young lead of eight percent. But most of 71 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:06,520 Speaker 1: the polling has it plus or minus that three one 72 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:09,040 Speaker 1: way or the other. Yeah, the trend has certainly been 73 00:04:09,080 --> 00:04:11,280 Speaker 1: in Yunkin's favor, right. What were you looking at a 74 00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:13,960 Speaker 1: couple of months ago, Is we've been watching Terry mccaulloff's 75 00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:17,240 Speaker 1: numbers kind of sync along with Joe Biden's numbers. Yeah, 76 00:04:17,279 --> 00:04:20,840 Speaker 1: absolutely so. A couple of months ago, as you say, 77 00:04:20,880 --> 00:04:25,400 Speaker 1: the lead was ten fifteen points for mccaulloff, basically on 78 00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:30,640 Speaker 1: name recognition and familiarity. Um where young and hadn't adequately 79 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:36,120 Speaker 1: introduced himself. But the offsetting factor two is the early votes. Now, 80 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 1: the early votes started September and has been ongoing for 81 00:04:40,279 --> 00:04:43,680 Speaker 1: quite some time, when the mccaulliff lead was in the 82 00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:46,799 Speaker 1: high single digits, So you've got to sort of bake 83 00:04:47,080 --> 00:04:50,599 Speaker 1: into that, UM the the equation a little bit. We've 84 00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:53,040 Speaker 1: got one point one one point two million people who 85 00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:58,320 Speaker 1: have voted early. UM, mccaulliff is probably coming into tonight 86 00:04:58,480 --> 00:05:02,559 Speaker 1: with a couple a thousand vote lead on the early votes, 87 00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 1: maybe eight to two hundred thousand, And certainly young Ken 88 00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 1: has a significant advantage on election day is going to 89 00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 1: win by a considerable amount on election day. But if 90 00:05:14,160 --> 00:05:18,440 Speaker 1: mcauliff keeps the the young can win in terms of 91 00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:21,600 Speaker 1: the in person voting today under two hundred thousand, then 92 00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 1: you're gonna have a real long night. How do you 93 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:28,160 Speaker 1: factor that lead among the early voting UH and mail 94 00:05:28,200 --> 00:05:32,560 Speaker 1: in ballots since Virginia doesn't register by party. Yes, so 95 00:05:32,800 --> 00:05:36,360 Speaker 1: we looked at some of the counties that have voted 96 00:05:36,760 --> 00:05:41,479 Speaker 1: and above the people have voted early. So some of 97 00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:45,839 Speaker 1: the counties that have voted higher than that Fairfax have 98 00:05:45,920 --> 00:05:51,360 Speaker 1: voted early. Loudon and other counties higher percentages, and so 99 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:55,160 Speaker 1: it's it's tending to and this is common for Democratic 100 00:05:55,200 --> 00:06:00,240 Speaker 1: candidates anyway. The question that there's there's two fact is 101 00:06:00,279 --> 00:06:04,839 Speaker 1: really that go into tonight. Number one is what percentage 102 00:06:04,920 --> 00:06:10,360 Speaker 1: of the vote tonight will be African American voters. If 103 00:06:10,440 --> 00:06:15,400 Speaker 1: that percentage is or higher, mccaullough will win. If the 104 00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 1: African American support is dropped off, and there's some polling 105 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:24,160 Speaker 1: that indicates that it has dropped off from UH statistical norms, 106 00:06:24,680 --> 00:06:28,400 Speaker 1: let's say it's in the sixteen range of the actual 107 00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:33,120 Speaker 1: total votes cast, then young can will win. That's factor 108 00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:37,640 Speaker 1: number one Black voters. Factor number two is blanding voters 109 00:06:37,760 --> 00:06:41,560 Speaker 1: that third party Liberation candidate. If this is a one 110 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:43,599 Speaker 1: point race, I'm not saying it will be one of 111 00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:45,920 Speaker 1: the one or the other candidates could win by three. 112 00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:49,159 Speaker 1: But if this is a one point race or less, 113 00:06:49,360 --> 00:06:52,880 Speaker 1: that third party's presence on the Virginia ballot is going 114 00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:57,880 Speaker 1: to factor into this outcome. And therefore turnout is just 115 00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:01,359 Speaker 1: so important here. I want to mention, by the way, David, 116 00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:03,599 Speaker 1: there was a soundcut we played there of the two 117 00:07:03,640 --> 00:07:06,680 Speaker 1: candidates going into this and Terry mccaulliffe, I should have 118 00:07:06,720 --> 00:07:08,760 Speaker 1: noted he's been trying to hang Donald Trump around the 119 00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:11,280 Speaker 1: neck of Glenn. You can through this whole race. Of course, 120 00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:14,960 Speaker 1: you can accepted Trump's uh endorsement. But Donald Trump was 121 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:17,600 Speaker 1: not with youn Can last night, and he was not 122 00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:20,200 Speaker 1: here in Virginia. They held a teller rally as they 123 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:24,000 Speaker 1: called it, because we love all things analog uh, and 124 00:07:24,120 --> 00:07:27,160 Speaker 1: Younkin was holding his own rally UH down the road 125 00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:30,320 Speaker 1: from where Terry mcculliffe was. But I just wondered to 126 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:34,200 Speaker 1: what extent, David, you've seen the Trump factor play into 127 00:07:34,240 --> 00:07:39,240 Speaker 1: this race as a polster. Yes, So you know a 128 00:07:39,280 --> 00:07:43,080 Speaker 1: couple of thoughts about this. Number One, voters don't like 129 00:07:43,320 --> 00:07:48,120 Speaker 1: when candidates or campaigns. I could try to connect the 130 00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:51,960 Speaker 1: dots for you for for them, they don't like it, 131 00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:56,480 Speaker 1: and so try mcculliffe has been doing exactly. Trump is 132 00:07:56,520 --> 00:08:00,080 Speaker 1: not visible in Virginia. You can't put your hands on 133 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:02,520 Speaker 1: the throat of somebody who's not in the room. Trump 134 00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:04,840 Speaker 1: is not in the room. He hasn't been in Virginia. 135 00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:08,240 Speaker 1: He never was. Um. You know the tell the tell 136 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:13,640 Speaker 1: endorsement that he did last night was audio. He you know, 137 00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:16,080 Speaker 1: so he had none of the none of that. So 138 00:08:16,560 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 1: that could be a turn off to some independent voters 139 00:08:19,520 --> 00:08:23,560 Speaker 1: who don't make the connection. Whereas the connection of some 140 00:08:23,680 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 1: of the discussion about schools and parental involvement or lack 141 00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:32,480 Speaker 1: thereof in terms of the curriculum in schools, the economy 142 00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:35,240 Speaker 1: in Virginia, the grocery tax, some of the other local 143 00:08:35,280 --> 00:08:38,520 Speaker 1: issues that we pulled, you know, have a little bit 144 00:08:38,520 --> 00:08:42,800 Speaker 1: more teeth in terms of what voters are thinking about 145 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:45,720 Speaker 1: and less so about Trump. It may impact some, it 146 00:08:45,840 --> 00:08:50,560 Speaker 1: may motivate some progressives or some African American voters to 147 00:08:50,679 --> 00:08:54,800 Speaker 1: get out because they see Trump as racist, uh, and 148 00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:58,280 Speaker 1: maybe that maybe they were using he was using Trump 149 00:08:58,320 --> 00:09:02,640 Speaker 1: as sort of, uh, a motivational tool to get higher 150 00:09:02,679 --> 00:09:05,360 Speaker 1: turnout in suburban areas. Of course, you know who was 151 00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:08,640 Speaker 1: in the room was Joe Biden, along with Kamala Harris, 152 00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:11,720 Speaker 1: along with Barack Obama, Stacy Abrams. They pulled out the 153 00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:15,199 Speaker 1: big guns for Democrats, uh in this race. And obviously 154 00:09:15,240 --> 00:09:17,600 Speaker 1: that's a connection that that Terry mccauliff was looking for 155 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:21,080 Speaker 1: and may not have helped him, David No, you know, 156 00:09:21,280 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 1: and probably hurt you know, probably hurt Biden's numbers in 157 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:29,400 Speaker 1: our poll, we're forty six favorable fifty favorable. But that 158 00:09:29,480 --> 00:09:32,440 Speaker 1: was a week before the election, so which is a lifetime. 159 00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:35,440 Speaker 1: You know, I've seen polling where his approval was in 160 00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:39,800 Speaker 1: the low forties and his disapprovals in the mid high fifties. 161 00:09:40,679 --> 00:09:46,679 Speaker 1: So you know, clearly Biden's presence wasn't to sway Independence 162 00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:50,320 Speaker 1: because in our poll among Independence he was upside down 163 00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:57,720 Speaker 1: thirty five favorable and fifty nine unfavorable. Uh. David Paley 164 00:09:57,800 --> 00:10:00,240 Speaker 1: logos tell us about New Jersey? Is this gonna up 165 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:03,360 Speaker 1: being a layoup for sett incumbent, which in itself would 166 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:07,520 Speaker 1: make history. Yeah, I don't know that it's gonna be 167 00:10:07,760 --> 00:10:12,160 Speaker 1: a layup. Um. I think Governor Murphy is poised to 168 00:10:12,200 --> 00:10:16,040 Speaker 1: be reelected. Uh. Margin is going to be tough, given 169 00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:19,440 Speaker 1: that we haven't poled in ourselves. I've looked at the 170 00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:23,120 Speaker 1: polling and some of the some of the data. Um, 171 00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:26,080 Speaker 1: it feels like a high single digit race to me, 172 00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:29,320 Speaker 1: based on what I'm seeing, eight nine points something like that. 173 00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:32,520 Speaker 1: I will say to your listeners, if they are interested 174 00:10:32,559 --> 00:10:35,719 Speaker 1: in New Jersey, there are three bell Weather counties from 175 00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:39,800 Speaker 1: our research. If they're hovering their mouse over the map tonight, 176 00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:41,640 Speaker 1: and trying to find out how the state is going 177 00:10:41,720 --> 00:10:45,960 Speaker 1: to vote in terms of the margin, Atlantic, Burlington and 178 00:10:46,040 --> 00:10:49,439 Speaker 1: Middlesex Counties. I know they sound like Massachusetts counties, but 179 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:54,599 Speaker 1: they're actually New Jersey counties. Atlantic, Burlington and Middlesex Counties 180 00:10:54,800 --> 00:10:58,720 Speaker 1: have been unbelievable and not only predicting the outcome, but 181 00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:02,000 Speaker 1: the margin and the two thousand and nine, two thousand 182 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:06,600 Speaker 1: and thirteen, and two thousand and seventeen gubernatorial statewide races. 183 00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:08,920 Speaker 1: In our last minute, David, where are you looking? What 184 00:11:08,960 --> 00:11:12,480 Speaker 1: counties are you looking at tonight? In Virginia. So in 185 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:15,840 Speaker 1: Virginia there are three cities, and as you know, Virginia 186 00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:20,920 Speaker 1: has county territories and separate city territories. So there are 187 00:11:20,960 --> 00:11:25,400 Speaker 1: three cities that we're looking at. One is Chesapeake located 188 00:11:25,400 --> 00:11:29,800 Speaker 1: in the southeastern region. The other two of Manassas and Stompton. 189 00:11:30,840 --> 00:11:35,439 Speaker 1: Manassas and Stompton and also Chesapeake are the three cities 190 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:38,800 Speaker 1: that have been amazing in the last three goognatorial races. 191 00:11:39,400 --> 00:11:43,880 Speaker 1: David Paleo Logos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, 192 00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:46,480 Speaker 1: one of the best posters in the business. We thank 193 00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:49,560 Speaker 1: you for helping set things up here a perfect way 194 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:53,120 Speaker 1: to kick off the fastest hour in politics on election date. 195 00:11:53,840 --> 00:11:58,160 Speaker 1: You're listening to Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Maview on 196 00:11:58,360 --> 00:12:03,360 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio known but David Taley logo set the table 197 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:06,080 Speaker 1: for us on this election day. As we train our 198 00:12:06,120 --> 00:12:09,560 Speaker 1: focus here on Virginia for another moment, where polls closed 199 00:12:09,559 --> 00:12:12,160 Speaker 1: in a little less than two hours, and as I 200 00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:14,520 Speaker 1: read on the terminal polls showing a tight race and 201 00:12:14,679 --> 00:12:19,640 Speaker 1: what otherwise should be a comfortable Democratic stronghold. Indeed, let's 202 00:12:19,640 --> 00:12:22,520 Speaker 1: get the panels take on this. Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeanie 203 00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:26,319 Speaker 1: Schanzano and Rick Davis are with us for the hour. Genie, 204 00:12:26,640 --> 00:12:30,040 Speaker 1: how is Terry mcculloff tied in this race as a Democrat? 205 00:12:30,080 --> 00:12:33,520 Speaker 1: Do you blame President Biden for the drop of his numbers? 206 00:12:34,400 --> 00:12:37,840 Speaker 1: There are so many factors, and I think certainly President 207 00:12:37,880 --> 00:12:40,960 Speaker 1: Biden's numbers and we just heard this, UM, they do 208 00:12:41,200 --> 00:12:44,559 Speaker 1: drag on any candidate like Terry mcculloff. You can also 209 00:12:44,800 --> 00:12:48,439 Speaker 1: look to some blame for congressional Democrats UM in the 210 00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:51,040 Speaker 1: House and the Senate who haven't been able to get 211 00:12:51,080 --> 00:12:54,679 Speaker 1: their act together and pushed through this infrastructure. UM. You 212 00:12:54,720 --> 00:12:57,320 Speaker 1: can also, you know, to a certain extent. Look at 213 00:12:57,400 --> 00:13:00,520 Speaker 1: Terry mcculloff himself. Um, he was governor, but four it's 214 00:13:00,520 --> 00:13:03,920 Speaker 1: awfully hard to run again. It's it's you know, not 215 00:13:04,040 --> 00:13:06,960 Speaker 1: been done a lot um. You know, people don't necessarily 216 00:13:07,040 --> 00:13:10,040 Speaker 1: like to look backwards. He made some unforced errors. So 217 00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:12,319 Speaker 1: I think, you know, should he lose, there's gonna be 218 00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:15,120 Speaker 1: a lot of blame to go around tomorrow. But I 219 00:13:15,160 --> 00:13:17,880 Speaker 1: think there's still a very good chance that he pulls 220 00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:21,479 Speaker 1: this out. Maybe too close for comfort for most Democrats, 221 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:24,439 Speaker 1: but the numbers still are on his side. And this 222 00:13:24,559 --> 00:13:26,840 Speaker 1: is all going to be about turnout. And just look 223 00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:29,480 Speaker 1: at the early early vote. It's about one point two 224 00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:34,079 Speaker 1: million voters. That's a huge number of early voters, and 225 00:13:34,120 --> 00:13:36,480 Speaker 1: that's going to play a factor in what happens tonight. Well, 226 00:13:36,480 --> 00:13:38,920 Speaker 1: it's interesting to me you did not say, Genie because 227 00:13:39,040 --> 00:13:42,400 Speaker 1: Glenn Juncan has run a good campaign. It does that 228 00:13:42,520 --> 00:13:44,240 Speaker 1: have anything to do with the way this is going? 229 00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:48,080 Speaker 1: I think so. And I think also Republicans, to their credit, 230 00:13:48,120 --> 00:13:52,480 Speaker 1: and nominated somebody who could you know, appeal to these 231 00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:55,720 Speaker 1: suburban moderate voters who went you know, who went to 232 00:13:56,000 --> 00:13:59,240 Speaker 1: uh to Biden and could swing back Republican You know 233 00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:02,400 Speaker 1: they had another a few other options. One was Amanda Chase, 234 00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:05,720 Speaker 1: who like has fashioned herself as Donald Trump. That would 235 00:14:05,760 --> 00:14:08,800 Speaker 1: have probably been disastrous for the party. So not only Yunkan, 236 00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 1: but the Republican Party. And I think that comes from 237 00:14:11,520 --> 00:14:14,680 Speaker 1: the fact that they have lost so much in the 238 00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:18,439 Speaker 1: modern era. Nothing makes you energize to win like losing, 239 00:14:18,520 --> 00:14:21,359 Speaker 1: and I think that's what we're seeing in Virginia amongst Republicans. 240 00:14:21,640 --> 00:14:24,040 Speaker 1: Rick Davis, how you feeling today? I had an opportunity, 241 00:14:24,040 --> 00:14:25,840 Speaker 1: I'll let everyone, I'll bring everyone in on this to 242 00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:28,000 Speaker 1: see Rick Davis in person for a moment because he 243 00:14:28,040 --> 00:14:30,680 Speaker 1: was in the d C Bureau UH to join David 244 00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:33,000 Speaker 1: Weston on balance of power. I could see that glimmer 245 00:14:33,040 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 1: in your eye. Happy election day, Rick. These are the 246 00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:37,400 Speaker 1: days that I'm sure gets you out of bed a 247 00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:40,120 Speaker 1: little extra early. And I'm wondering what you're watching tonight. 248 00:14:40,480 --> 00:14:44,280 Speaker 1: Everyone says turnout is going to decide this race. But 249 00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:48,600 Speaker 1: where Yeah, I think it matters where um. As Genie said, 250 00:14:48,920 --> 00:14:51,760 Speaker 1: there's already one point one million votes cast and and 251 00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:57,040 Speaker 1: as your David Pelliot Laugus mentioned, probably two hundred thousand 252 00:14:57,120 --> 00:15:00,520 Speaker 1: numbers stact against Glenn yuncan, But for he woke up 253 00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:02,680 Speaker 1: this morning and so he's got to make that up. 254 00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:05,960 Speaker 1: Where where is he gonna make that up? Well? South side. Uh, 255 00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:11,800 Speaker 1: Southwest Virginia is become a real hotbed base for Republicans. Uh. 256 00:15:12,120 --> 00:15:14,400 Speaker 1: Democrats used to be able to compete down there with 257 00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:18,800 Speaker 1: rural white males, but Donald Trump took that all away. 258 00:15:18,880 --> 00:15:22,080 Speaker 1: So he's gonna have a be watching those votes there. 259 00:15:22,800 --> 00:15:24,560 Speaker 1: He's gonna be watching what he can get out of 260 00:15:24,800 --> 00:15:28,520 Speaker 1: Henrycho and Chesterfield County in Richmond, again a much more 261 00:15:28,560 --> 00:15:33,120 Speaker 1: traditional Republican location that frankly because of the suburbs and 262 00:15:33,160 --> 00:15:36,720 Speaker 1: the loss of suburban voters with Donald Trump, have been 263 00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:39,680 Speaker 1: voting for Democrats in the last few years. Uh. If 264 00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 1: he can bring those back to the Republican fold, Uh, 265 00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:44,480 Speaker 1: he could have a big night. Uh. These are these 266 00:15:44,480 --> 00:15:47,600 Speaker 1: are two critical areas to watch on turnout. If it's 267 00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:50,080 Speaker 1: tracking low and people aren't coming out, that could hurt 268 00:15:50,160 --> 00:15:52,880 Speaker 1: him badly. You know, Genia, No matter what happens, people 269 00:15:52,920 --> 00:15:55,200 Speaker 1: like us tomorrow, We're going to try to to to 270 00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:58,280 Speaker 1: write a trend story. Right, We're gonna try to connect 271 00:15:58,320 --> 00:16:01,840 Speaker 1: this to national trend and predict the outcome of the 272 00:16:01,840 --> 00:16:05,880 Speaker 1: mid terms. That's a heck out of pressure for Terry mccauliffe. Well, 273 00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:08,680 Speaker 1: what are your thoughts on that? As as Virginia the 274 00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:12,240 Speaker 1: Bell Weather. You know, we are going to do that. Um, 275 00:16:12,280 --> 00:16:14,600 Speaker 1: we love to do that. It's it's it's great, it's 276 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:16,920 Speaker 1: you know, we we really look at these races to 277 00:16:16,920 --> 00:16:20,680 Speaker 1: see what we can tease out about four. Um. I 278 00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:23,160 Speaker 1: also think we have to be awfully careful about that. 279 00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:26,880 Speaker 1: There are state and local issues at play here that 280 00:16:27,000 --> 00:16:30,520 Speaker 1: determine how voters feel and what they do when they 281 00:16:30,520 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 1: go inside the polling booth. So you know, we do 282 00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:35,960 Speaker 1: enjoy doing that, but there's there's other factors here. But 283 00:16:36,080 --> 00:16:38,160 Speaker 1: I think what we're going to be looking for, quite frankly, 284 00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:41,080 Speaker 1: is the you know, the Trump aspect of this, Glenn 285 00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:44,240 Speaker 1: Young Can it's speaking of running a good campaign successfully 286 00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:48,480 Speaker 1: negotiated or navigated rather between keeping Trump close enough but 287 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:51,400 Speaker 1: not too close, so you know, did that work out 288 00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:54,320 Speaker 1: in his favor? And also what we were just talking about, 289 00:16:54,560 --> 00:16:58,160 Speaker 1: you know, issues of how much Joe Biden sagging numbers 290 00:16:58,520 --> 00:17:01,360 Speaker 1: everything from Afghanistan to the failure to get this infrastructure 291 00:17:01,360 --> 00:17:05,000 Speaker 1: passed before the election day drag down. Terry McCullough and 292 00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:06,880 Speaker 1: also I think we have to look at the candidate 293 00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:09,639 Speaker 1: factors themselves, both the Youncan and McCullough. You know, to 294 00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:13,320 Speaker 1: a certain extent, Youncan is a bit like McCullough, So 295 00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:17,560 Speaker 1: you know, he's somebody that Crean appealed to Virginians. Rick. 296 00:17:17,640 --> 00:17:21,320 Speaker 1: If Glenn Young can wins or just comes close to winning, well, 297 00:17:21,320 --> 00:17:24,560 Speaker 1: Republicans around the country say this is the playbook for 298 00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:27,680 Speaker 1: twenty two. I think Politico referred to him this morning 299 00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:31,720 Speaker 1: as Trump like, yeah, he's he's becoming the prototypical post 300 00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:35,200 Speaker 1: Trump candidate. Uh. And and and not only his sort 301 00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:38,480 Speaker 1: of background in the way he campaigned, but also like, uh, 302 00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:40,720 Speaker 1: the way he's been able to keep Trump from actually 303 00:17:40,760 --> 00:17:43,040 Speaker 1: defining this election as a national election. I mean, I 304 00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:45,119 Speaker 1: don't think this is a Trump election at all. I 305 00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:48,080 Speaker 1: don't think the narrative is gonna at all be about Trump. 306 00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:50,360 Speaker 1: I mean, it's not going to be a win for him, 307 00:17:50,520 --> 00:17:52,800 Speaker 1: and he can't be blamed for the loss. But I 308 00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:56,960 Speaker 1: do think this sets a pattern in the future for Republicans. 309 00:17:57,520 --> 00:18:01,040 Speaker 1: The name's Michelle Woo and Anissa as I be George 310 00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:06,160 Speaker 1: may not have been heard in coverage of the mayoral 311 00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:09,960 Speaker 1: race in Boston ten years ago, twenty years ago, never 312 00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:13,080 Speaker 1: mind poised as they are today to make history in 313 00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:16,320 Speaker 1: this contest. We take a look at the polling, we 314 00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:19,280 Speaker 1: take a look at the campaigns and the messaging, and 315 00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:22,200 Speaker 1: one of America's oldest cities now an important mayoral race. 316 00:18:22,240 --> 00:18:27,200 Speaker 1: We're watching with political analyst John Keller from CBS w 317 00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:30,600 Speaker 1: b Z in Boston. John, welcome back to Bloomberg Radio. 318 00:18:31,359 --> 00:18:33,520 Speaker 1: Glad to be here, Joe, thanks for having me. Happy 319 00:18:33,560 --> 00:18:36,520 Speaker 1: Election Day. It's been said the outcome of this race, John, 320 00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:39,119 Speaker 1: will be historic no matter who wins. And that's true 321 00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:41,960 Speaker 1: by the looks of things, though the preliminary was the 322 00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:47,639 Speaker 1: real election. Yes, and if this election is historic and 323 00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:51,440 Speaker 1: lives up to that billing, it's only on the surface, Joe. Yes, 324 00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:54,639 Speaker 1: we're gonna have our first woman mayor, our first mayor 325 00:18:54,720 --> 00:19:01,760 Speaker 1: of color. But otherwise, frankly, the most stark history making 326 00:19:01,800 --> 00:19:06,160 Speaker 1: aspect of tonight maybe the pitifully low turnout, even by 327 00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:10,880 Speaker 1: the diminished standards of participation in Boston City elections over 328 00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:14,280 Speaker 1: the last couple of decades, this looks like a real dud, Joe. 329 00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:18,120 Speaker 1: So that's because of this being a foregone conclusion. How 330 00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:20,399 Speaker 1: far ahead is Michelle Woo as we walk into this 331 00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:24,320 Speaker 1: election day, Well, you've got three straight reputable pollsters pegging 332 00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:28,120 Speaker 1: her with a thirty point lead, which is pretty much 333 00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:32,160 Speaker 1: unheard up here in Boston. So that I think gives 334 00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:36,359 Speaker 1: you an indication. Now, Uh, those polls are only as 335 00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:41,040 Speaker 1: good as the turnout, and there is a sense that 336 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:47,600 Speaker 1: a very low turnout accentuates the impact of Anissa Sabe 337 00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:53,879 Speaker 1: George's constituency. Her base is in the traditionally high voting, white, 338 00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:57,879 Speaker 1: middle class neighborhoods of Boston. That's how she made the 339 00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:02,080 Speaker 1: runoff back in September. Uh, she was trailing in the 340 00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:04,560 Speaker 1: polls and came un strong on the day because her 341 00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:08,199 Speaker 1: voters turned out and voters supporting other candidates did not, 342 00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:11,560 Speaker 1: so that could narrow the margin. But look, Michelle Wou 343 00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:17,280 Speaker 1: has topped the ticket in two consecutive citywide city council races, 344 00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:21,320 Speaker 1: nearly topped it in a third one uh, and was 345 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:25,600 Speaker 1: the first candidate to turn in her nomination papers back 346 00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:29,200 Speaker 1: in the spring. When the race began. She was able 347 00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:33,040 Speaker 1: to collect the thousands that she needed overnight, whereas some 348 00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:35,480 Speaker 1: of the other major contenders had to go out and 349 00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:38,119 Speaker 1: pay people to gather them. That gives you a sense 350 00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:43,360 Speaker 1: of her organizational competence and clouds. So I would be stunned. 351 00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:45,920 Speaker 1: Let's put it that way if the if the outcome 352 00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:49,040 Speaker 1: is different. Some of describes Michelle Wou as kind of 353 00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:52,480 Speaker 1: a local version of Boston version if I dare say, 354 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:55,879 Speaker 1: of Alexandria Costio Cortez, kind of the green the local 355 00:20:55,960 --> 00:21:01,320 Speaker 1: green new Deal, proposing ideas beyond climate initiatives, free public transit, 356 00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:05,800 Speaker 1: rent control, police reform. Are these the messages resonating because 357 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:07,840 Speaker 1: I mean I was there for long enough to see 358 00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:11,800 Speaker 1: Michelle Wou become a major local political celebrity, a Twitter star. 359 00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:16,240 Speaker 1: Or is this election going to be decided on other issues? John? No, Look, 360 00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:21,199 Speaker 1: I think you've accurately described the WU brand, and she 361 00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:25,879 Speaker 1: certainly has promoted that during this campaign. That message of 362 00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:33,240 Speaker 1: sweeping change. UH. Certainly resonates with younger voters, more liberal 363 00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:37,280 Speaker 1: voters in the city. UH, and with the other end 364 00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:43,560 Speaker 1: of the scale, voters voters of color who have not 365 00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:47,000 Speaker 1: participated as fully as they would like to in the 366 00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:51,080 Speaker 1: economic boom in Boston over the last generations. So um, 367 00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:55,840 Speaker 1: So that's all well and good. However, a lot of 368 00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:59,840 Speaker 1: what she proposes the free public transit and rent control, 369 00:21:59,880 --> 00:22:02,520 Speaker 1: for instance, are matters that are under the purview of 370 00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:07,879 Speaker 1: the state legislature, and Anissa Sybe George has tried to 371 00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:13,720 Speaker 1: probe at that by suggesting that basically Michelle was offering 372 00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:16,520 Speaker 1: a lot of pie in the sky panacea is that 373 00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:19,600 Speaker 1: have little or no chance of coming true. The thing 374 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:23,399 Speaker 1: about being mayor of Boston is it's a nitty, gritty job. 375 00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:29,520 Speaker 1: People don't look to the Mayor of Boston for ideological 376 00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:33,360 Speaker 1: rabble rousing or big sweeping visions of change. They want 377 00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:35,600 Speaker 1: to know that the streets are plowed, the trash has 378 00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:41,040 Speaker 1: picked up, crime is under control, and so the campaign 379 00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:44,560 Speaker 1: and then governing if she does in fact win tonight, 380 00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:47,280 Speaker 1: are going to be two different matters from Michelle wou So, 381 00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:50,920 Speaker 1: why hasn't a Sybe George resonated more? Where where has 382 00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:53,720 Speaker 1: she struggled in this campaign? She too is a woman 383 00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:57,840 Speaker 1: of color, she too is a city counselor, she's a teacher. 384 00:22:57,920 --> 00:22:59,919 Speaker 1: She had a good story to tell going into this ray. 385 00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:03,200 Speaker 1: It's even a tacit endorsement, I won't say from former 386 00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:05,600 Speaker 1: Mayor Marty wah Well, at least from his mother John 387 00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:10,240 Speaker 1: right right. She escorted the mother to vote early in 388 00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:13,800 Speaker 1: the preliminary and it was clear who she was voting for. Uh, Well, 389 00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:18,160 Speaker 1: look for starters. Boston is changing and has changed quite 390 00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:21,320 Speaker 1: a bit. We've been a majority non white city uh 391 00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:26,800 Speaker 1: for a decade now at least, and uh, the mix 392 00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:32,959 Speaker 1: has changed. Uh. Fully of the residents of Boston rent 393 00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:37,440 Speaker 1: rather than own a significant percentage. I think it's close 394 00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:40,560 Speaker 1: to a third have lived here less than ten years. 395 00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:45,920 Speaker 1: So there's definitely been dramatic change there. But as Sybee 396 00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:51,320 Speaker 1: George frankly got kneecapped right out of the gate when 397 00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:54,880 Speaker 1: it turned out that a superpack, which she ostensibly has 398 00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:59,280 Speaker 1: no control over, they operate independently of her campaign, that 399 00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:04,600 Speaker 1: a super had formed supporting her, basically funded by a 400 00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:09,960 Speaker 1: prominent local businessman who had famously donated to Donald Trump. 401 00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:14,359 Speaker 1: So Sybi George was cast in some circles as Donald 402 00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:18,320 Speaker 1: Trump in address. And that's not the branding you want 403 00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:21,240 Speaker 1: in the city of Boston in two thousand twenty one, Joe, 404 00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:23,720 Speaker 1: you expect to late night here an early call based 405 00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:26,640 Speaker 1: on everything we've said. Well, hopefully they've got their act 406 00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:28,679 Speaker 1: together at city Hall and can count the votes. A 407 00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:32,720 Speaker 1: little earlier. We didn't get results until after midnight last time, 408 00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:34,520 Speaker 1: and you know you get to a point in life, 409 00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:38,440 Speaker 1: Joe where it's just past your bedtime. Everyone who's tried 410 00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:41,080 Speaker 1: to stay up to watch this world series can relate 411 00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:44,400 Speaker 1: to what I'm saying. John Keller, political analyst, the dean 412 00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:47,800 Speaker 1: of political analysts in Boston with CBS w b Z, 413 00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:51,160 Speaker 1: and of course here on sound On, we thank you John, 414 00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:54,280 Speaker 1: good luck with the turnout. Thanks Joe, and to think 415 00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:57,240 Speaker 1: the guy from Boston brought up the baseball game. Cheers 416 00:24:57,280 --> 00:25:00,680 Speaker 1: to our listeners on Bloomberg's one oh six one in Boston, 417 00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:05,600 Speaker 1: you're listening to Bloomberg you sound on with Joe Matthew 418 00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:13,439 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. Imagine a thirty point lead points in 419 00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:16,520 Speaker 1: a major city's mayoral race. That's the reality for Boston 420 00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:19,440 Speaker 1: City councilor Michelle who was you just heard with John 421 00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:22,919 Speaker 1: Keller in that discussion. But her lead is nothing compared 422 00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:25,320 Speaker 1: to that of Eric Adams in New York, a forty 423 00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:29,040 Speaker 1: point lead. As I last read over Republican Curtis Sliwa. 424 00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:31,360 Speaker 1: And before we bring the panel back in, I want 425 00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:33,920 Speaker 1: to check in quickly with Bloomberg's New York Bureau chief 426 00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:36,240 Speaker 1: Shelley Banjo, who I imagine having one of the busiest 427 00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:38,680 Speaker 1: days of her year, and kind, Shelley of you to 428 00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:41,520 Speaker 1: join us. Is that lead intact as voters hit the 429 00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:44,480 Speaker 1: polls today in New York? Thanks so much for having me. Yeah, 430 00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:47,440 Speaker 1: it definitely is. There was this forty point lead, and 431 00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:50,480 Speaker 1: there was, you know, almost a sense of this manifest 432 00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:53,240 Speaker 1: destiny in a way where Eric Adams actually went to 433 00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:56,200 Speaker 1: go cast his own vote and started crying and said, 434 00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:58,240 Speaker 1: you know, I wasn't supposed to be here. And you know, 435 00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:00,439 Speaker 1: obviously there's a lot of emotion when you when you 436 00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:04,200 Speaker 1: come to this kind of place in your career, but 437 00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:07,040 Speaker 1: there is a lot of feeling that it's sort of 438 00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:10,560 Speaker 1: a foregone conclusion and what happens next tomorrow is that 439 00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:13,320 Speaker 1: it is no longer Eric Adams mare and waiting. It 440 00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:16,040 Speaker 1: is Eric Adams Mare elect. And what are you planning 441 00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:20,280 Speaker 1: to do to fix this city? Oh that, as Shelley mentions, 442 00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:23,440 Speaker 1: listen to Eric Adams this morning in New York. We 443 00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:25,960 Speaker 1: want already. Someone asked me how many votes you need 444 00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:31,760 Speaker 1: to to feel you have a victory. They just don't 445 00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:37,800 Speaker 1: get it. We want, we want already. I'm not supposed 446 00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:40,480 Speaker 1: to be standing in What does he mean by that? 447 00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:43,960 Speaker 1: Referring to his life story, Shelley Eric Adams grew up, 448 00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:46,720 Speaker 1: you know the way he describes it as to a 449 00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:50,560 Speaker 1: single mother, a poor childhood in Brooklyn and then Jamaica Queen's. 450 00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:54,920 Speaker 1: He was abused by police. He went on to join 451 00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:58,159 Speaker 1: the police force, rose through the ranks and became a 452 00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:01,719 Speaker 1: state senator Brooklyn Boro pre and then ran firm mayor 453 00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:05,919 Speaker 1: in a hotly contested Democratic primary against a dozen people 454 00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:08,320 Speaker 1: and ended up winning. And so what he's trying to 455 00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:10,880 Speaker 1: say is, you know, how how have I gotten this far? 456 00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:13,440 Speaker 1: And really taking this moment to to enjoy it, to 457 00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:16,360 Speaker 1: be you know, it's the calm before the storm. Well, 458 00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:18,560 Speaker 1: we certainly know what would be ahead for him assuming 459 00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:21,280 Speaker 1: he does win. What does Curtis sleewould do. I'm not 460 00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:23,199 Speaker 1: even sure what he does for a living anymore. All 461 00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:24,960 Speaker 1: you know is they wouldn't let his cat into vote 462 00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:28,160 Speaker 1: with him today, That's right. So obviously there's still an election. 463 00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:31,520 Speaker 1: The polls closed at nine pm Eastern tonight and Eric 464 00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:35,240 Speaker 1: Adams will have to cross that finish line. There's his 465 00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:39,800 Speaker 1: Republican challenger, Curtis Lee. What runs a anti crime patrol 466 00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:42,679 Speaker 1: group has for decades now in New York City. I 467 00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:45,040 Speaker 1: don't think Curtis Lee what goes away. He's almost part 468 00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:48,080 Speaker 1: of the fabric of the city in many ways. But 469 00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:50,800 Speaker 1: you know it is it was almost, um, you know, 470 00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:53,200 Speaker 1: kind of a no contest in a in a city 471 00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:58,320 Speaker 1: that's so overwhelmingly democratic. So the Guardian Angels would prevail 472 00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:00,960 Speaker 1: in that situation. Jelly, I don't know if you're in 473 00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:02,880 Speaker 1: for a late night, but but we do appreciate your 474 00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:05,800 Speaker 1: coverage and glad you're with us. Shelley Banjo is Bloomberg's 475 00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:08,160 Speaker 1: New York bureau chief, and we reassemble the panel. Now 476 00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:10,960 Speaker 1: Rick and Jeanie are with us here. Uh, and this 477 00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:13,960 Speaker 1: is your neck of the woods, Genie Chanzano A slam dunk, 478 00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:16,600 Speaker 1: it looks like for Eric Adams, I mean a forty 479 00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:20,760 Speaker 1: point lead, my goodness. But then to Shelley's point, then 480 00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:23,520 Speaker 1: the real stuff follows. Now it's time to run the 481 00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:27,280 Speaker 1: biggest city in the world. That's right, and you know 482 00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:30,000 Speaker 1: it is to hear Eric Adams at the polls getting 483 00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:33,919 Speaker 1: very emotional, it is an enormous accomplishment. Um. And again, 484 00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:37,440 Speaker 1: this is a city that's seven to one democratic. He's 485 00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:41,640 Speaker 1: forty percent up, So you know, he's almost certain to win. Um, 486 00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:43,520 Speaker 1: you know, but but he's got a lot of work 487 00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:45,880 Speaker 1: ahead of him. That the city has a lot of 488 00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:49,440 Speaker 1: challenges at this point. It has been devastated economically and 489 00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:53,320 Speaker 1: in other ways by COVID. At some of the debates 490 00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:57,520 Speaker 1: that were occurred between him and Curtis Leewa, several questions 491 00:28:57,560 --> 00:29:01,720 Speaker 1: arose about, for instance, voting allowing people who have green 492 00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:04,000 Speaker 1: cards and who may not be citizens, but who are 493 00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:07,120 Speaker 1: here to vote, and that's something he suggested he may 494 00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:10,400 Speaker 1: bump up to Albany. That raised some red flags among progressives. 495 00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:13,440 Speaker 1: And as Shelly mentioned, he won this race against a 496 00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:16,520 Speaker 1: number of progressives and that's something we're seeing in cities 497 00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:20,320 Speaker 1: across the country at the mayoral level, these debates between 498 00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:23,400 Speaker 1: progressives and moderates. And he's going to have to contend 499 00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:27,840 Speaker 1: with a very robust progressive, you know, energized group in 500 00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:30,920 Speaker 1: New York City and the crime being the number one issue, right, 501 00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:33,320 Speaker 1: how is that How he'll have to prove himself is 502 00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:36,360 Speaker 1: to make people feel more confident, for instance, to ride 503 00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:38,760 Speaker 1: the subway, to walk down the street. He will, and 504 00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:40,840 Speaker 1: at the same time he's going to have to negotiate 505 00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:44,400 Speaker 1: issues like police brutality and other You know, obviously, as 506 00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:47,160 Speaker 1: a former police officer, he's well situated to do this, 507 00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:50,640 Speaker 1: but progressives are really going to be hovering over him 508 00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:53,200 Speaker 1: and trying to hold his feet to the fire on 509 00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:56,120 Speaker 1: some of these issues that he has backed off from. 510 00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:59,239 Speaker 1: Rick Davis, you're a technician when it comes to UH, 511 00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:03,520 Speaker 1: to running campaigns, to to winning elections. What do you 512 00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:06,560 Speaker 1: make of of this particular contest. We just talked about 513 00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:10,240 Speaker 1: this lopsided race in Boston with John Keller. This one 514 00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:14,880 Speaker 1: in New York is when you probably could not have predicted. Uh. 515 00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:17,960 Speaker 1: And and does that not create ever more uncertainty around 516 00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:22,480 Speaker 1: the organization once they're finally governing. Well, you can look 517 00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:25,400 Speaker 1: at it two different ways, right, I mean, obviously they've 518 00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:27,440 Speaker 1: been phoning it in for the last few months because 519 00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:30,880 Speaker 1: the Democratic Primary was really the election and uh and 520 00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:34,120 Speaker 1: and this either creates a level of stability you know, 521 00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:38,400 Speaker 1: in a transitions um, but uh, I think that is 522 00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:41,400 Speaker 1: probably more good than bad as far as if you're 523 00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:44,320 Speaker 1: Eric Adams coming in as the mayor, you just assume 524 00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:46,920 Speaker 1: not have a lot of controversy associated with election or 525 00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:49,920 Speaker 1: a close election where you might have a recount. Um. 526 00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:53,400 Speaker 1: I mean even the current mayor, Bill A Blasio, didn't 527 00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:54,840 Speaker 1: let the screen door hit him in a butt at 528 00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:58,520 Speaker 1: Gracie Mansion. He already filed to run for statewide governor. 529 00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:01,280 Speaker 1: And and like he's he's gonna turn those keys over 530 00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:04,880 Speaker 1: so quick. So Adams does have an opportunity to chart 531 00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:07,640 Speaker 1: his course. And he's got a city behind him, clearly 532 00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:11,240 Speaker 1: by the polling data, and and and and so John 533 00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:13,000 Speaker 1: McCaine used to say, Oh, we only have one way 534 00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:16,640 Speaker 1: to go down. That's right. There's nothing more dangerous than 535 00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:20,280 Speaker 1: high expectations. And he's got them. Uh. And there's an 536 00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:23,000 Speaker 1: expectation that New York City is the greatest city on 537 00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:25,000 Speaker 1: the world. And of course it's going to come back 538 00:31:25,040 --> 00:31:28,200 Speaker 1: from from the devastation of COVID and he's got to 539 00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:30,640 Speaker 1: make that a reality. Now. Can he pull together all 540 00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:33,800 Speaker 1: the constituencies and we know they're very mirrored, all kinds 541 00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:36,880 Speaker 1: of different conflicting interests in the city of New York. Uh, 542 00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:39,560 Speaker 1: And he's gonna have to test his political skills. If 543 00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:42,400 Speaker 1: he pulls it off, he will be considered the savior 544 00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:44,880 Speaker 1: of New York. If he doesn't, he will go down 545 00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:47,080 Speaker 1: in along the line of mayors who you know didn't 546 00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:50,080 Speaker 1: make the city better, if anything, potentially made it worse. 547 00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:52,720 Speaker 1: Crime is on the list, Genie, so is COVID. And 548 00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:57,239 Speaker 1: this mandate by de Blasio for for municipal employees has 549 00:31:57,320 --> 00:31:59,680 Speaker 1: just caused a big old mess. It's given Courtis Leewa 550 00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:01,560 Speaker 1: a good chance to show up, but a lot of 551 00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:04,080 Speaker 1: demonstrations over the last couple of weeks. But we know 552 00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:08,280 Speaker 1: thousands of workers are not on the job because of it, police, firefighter, 553 00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:10,920 Speaker 1: sanitation workers. They don't want the jab. What do you 554 00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:14,440 Speaker 1: do with that when you're an incoming mayor. Well, this 555 00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:17,160 Speaker 1: this is a huge challenge for Eric Adams and he 556 00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:19,920 Speaker 1: is going to have to contend with this, and you know, 557 00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:23,280 Speaker 1: what does he do with it? He's he's probably going 558 00:32:23,320 --> 00:32:26,320 Speaker 1: to stick with the mandate, but I'm not so. I'm 559 00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:29,400 Speaker 1: not so certain that he has added the clarity to 560 00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:31,320 Speaker 1: that that he needs to. And he's going to face 561 00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:34,520 Speaker 1: a swift backlash on that. And you know, let's not 562 00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:38,960 Speaker 1: forget he does win by this huge number um certainly tonight, 563 00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:43,280 Speaker 1: but there are enormous challenges he faces and you know, 564 00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:46,280 Speaker 1: he comes in with a mandate, but it can quickly 565 00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:49,200 Speaker 1: as Bill de Blasio can tell you go south, and 566 00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:51,120 Speaker 1: that's what he's going to have to watch for. And 567 00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:54,000 Speaker 1: the mandate to municipal workers is high on that list. 568 00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:56,560 Speaker 1: When you look at the number of firefighters and police 569 00:32:56,800 --> 00:32:59,360 Speaker 1: officers in New York City who are saying that they 570 00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:02,640 Speaker 1: would rather leave the job then get the get the 571 00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:08,040 Speaker 1: the COVID vaccination, those are huge challenges and what has 572 00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:10,200 Speaker 1: he promised to do keep the city safe? Can't do 573 00:33:10,280 --> 00:33:13,880 Speaker 1: that if you don't have first responders. Yeah, that's danger 574 00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:17,400 Speaker 1: zone potentially rick when you don't have police and fire 575 00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:20,920 Speaker 1: on your side, you're you're the former police officer who 576 00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:24,200 Speaker 1: was promising to make the city safer. Yeah, you really 577 00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:27,160 Speaker 1: wonder how much of this, Uh is a reaction also 578 00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:31,440 Speaker 1: to build a Blasio and the administration he had, which 579 00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:37,080 Speaker 1: was arguably conflict all the time with first responders. And 580 00:33:37,080 --> 00:33:39,479 Speaker 1: and so I would hope that Eric Adams would take 581 00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:42,440 Speaker 1: this opportunity. Is sort of like, Uh, get a full 582 00:33:42,480 --> 00:33:45,360 Speaker 1: throated endorsement behind the people who keep the city safe, 583 00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:48,160 Speaker 1: sit down with them, try to understand what the issues 584 00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:51,520 Speaker 1: are related to not getting the COVID vaccine. Uh, it's 585 00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:54,280 Speaker 1: very hard to compromise on this when we're entire country 586 00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:56,160 Speaker 1: is out to try and get people with the JAB 587 00:33:56,560 --> 00:34:00,760 Speaker 1: and create safer environments to work and play in. So UH, 588 00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:02,960 Speaker 1: I think this is a this is a challenge for him. 589 00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:05,800 Speaker 1: Part of it is just the way that these UH 590 00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:10,520 Speaker 1: first responses have been treated for the last UH two terms. 591 00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:12,800 Speaker 1: But a lot of it I think can be wiped clean. 592 00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:16,480 Speaker 1: UH and and Eric Adams has the ability to reach out, 593 00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:20,320 Speaker 1: considering his past positions with the fire and the police, 594 00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:23,200 Speaker 1: to try and create a new dialogue that hopefully will 595 00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:26,360 Speaker 1: result in a better understanding around the public health safety 596 00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:29,320 Speaker 1: issues and UH and get them to be more cooperative 597 00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:31,839 Speaker 1: when it comes to vaccinations. It's amazing we're still having 598 00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:34,000 Speaker 1: these conversations, Jennie. You know, I'm always trying to pull 599 00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:37,400 Speaker 1: you back to Washington. The Biden apparatus is going to 600 00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:40,400 Speaker 1: be in the air overnight coming back to this country 601 00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:43,000 Speaker 1: from a trip to Europe. The G twenty and COP 602 00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:45,759 Speaker 1: twenty six. They're gonna be looking at results of these 603 00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:49,200 Speaker 1: races very closely. What kind of trends will they be 604 00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:52,359 Speaker 1: seeking and how much responsibility will they have for them, 605 00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:56,480 Speaker 1: you know, whether they bear real responsibility, It is going 606 00:34:56,520 --> 00:34:59,600 Speaker 1: to be piled on them. Certainly. If Terry McCullough loses 607 00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:02,960 Speaker 1: in for Ginia, Democrats, whether they should or not, are 608 00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:06,120 Speaker 1: going to have to think very very carefully about what 609 00:35:06,160 --> 00:35:09,120 Speaker 1: they did wrong. Um And you know, so Joe Biden, 610 00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:10,960 Speaker 1: who we know needs to get some sleep on his 611 00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:14,120 Speaker 1: way back to Washington, d C. Tonight, is going to 612 00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:17,919 Speaker 1: wake up tomorrow facing the fact that Joe Mansion came 613 00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:20,360 Speaker 1: out when he was overseas and made the statements he 614 00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:23,759 Speaker 1: did about infrastructure that you know, he potentially you know, 615 00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:25,880 Speaker 1: I think he still could win Virginia, but it's going 616 00:35:25,920 --> 00:35:28,120 Speaker 1: to be tighter than it should be, tighter than it 617 00:35:28,120 --> 00:35:31,359 Speaker 1: should be in New Jersey. These are real challenges for him. 618 00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:34,640 Speaker 1: So you know, Democrats have to look very carefully and 619 00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:37,560 Speaker 1: they have to remember as they think about two it's 620 00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:41,160 Speaker 1: the suburbs and those moderate Democrats who won them the 621 00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:44,520 Speaker 1: House and quite frankly Trump who in Georgia won them 622 00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:47,359 Speaker 1: the Senate. And they've got a tread very lightly as 623 00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:50,120 Speaker 1: they maneuver over the next year. But if they get 624 00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:53,600 Speaker 1: infrastructure and the build back better, and if he wins Virginia, 625 00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:57,080 Speaker 1: he's he could have a very good day tomorrow. Well, 626 00:35:57,120 --> 00:35:59,960 Speaker 1: if Dems win New Jersey and Virginia, the two stay 627 00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:04,680 Speaker 1: wide races. Rick Joe Biden takes credit all day. Absolutely. Uh, 628 00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:06,799 Speaker 1: he's gonna need a victory lap and he's gonna have 629 00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:10,959 Speaker 1: to use that momentum to push his congressional agenda, which 630 00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:13,560 Speaker 1: I don't think we're gonna find out tomorrow on the 631 00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:16,480 Speaker 1: congressional agenda. So he's got some time to kill. Rick 632 00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:18,360 Speaker 1: and Genie the best here. They're gonna be back with 633 00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:22,560 Speaker 1: us tomorrow as we distill the results on this election day, 634 00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:24,759 Speaker 1: and I'll see you on TV two early in the morning. 635 00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:26,960 Speaker 1: I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.