WEBVTT - Ukraine & Russia:  Fighting For Another Year.  Mike Lyons Talks to A&G.

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<v Speaker 1>But the fact of the matter is, in the last

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<v Speaker 1>couple of months there really hasn't been very much in

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<v Speaker 1>the way of territorial gains on the part of the

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<v Speaker 1>Russian military, And one of the reasons for that seems

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<v Speaker 1>to be that they've mobilized a lot of people, but

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<v Speaker 1>they can't really get that many weapons to people. It's

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<v Speaker 1>under clear whether or not that's because their industry symbody

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<v Speaker 1>isn't efficient enough, or whether or not sanctions or taking

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<v Speaker 1>a toll on some of that. But right now you

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<v Speaker 1>have a case where people keep talking about an offensive

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<v Speaker 1>that's about to happen, but so far very little in

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<v Speaker 1>the way of gains. If that offensive is indeed already underway,

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<v Speaker 1>If the Russian offensive is underway, it's not impressive so far.

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<v Speaker 1>A couple of things on the war in Ukraine and

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<v Speaker 1>the one year anniversary of this whole awful thing starting.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm into this story for geopolitical reasons, for student history reasons,

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<v Speaker 1>for personal reasons of just the humanity, I mean, just awful.

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<v Speaker 1>But if you're not into this story, you should be

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<v Speaker 1>into it, at least as a taxpayers. We've now spent

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<v Speaker 1>one hundred and thirteen billion dollars, and it looks like,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we're going to continue down that road for

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<v Speaker 1>some time to come. Two big developments today, on the

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<v Speaker 1>one year anniversary, the Biden administration puts out a list

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<v Speaker 1>of two hundred entities they're going to sanction harshly for

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<v Speaker 1>continuing to do business with Russia when they're not supposed to.

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<v Speaker 1>And China put out a peace plan for a ceasefire

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<v Speaker 1>between Russia and Ukraine. And blah blah blah blah blah,

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<v Speaker 1>speaking of entities that have been getting around the sanctions,

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<v Speaker 1>Excuse me for not acting like a kid on Christmas

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<v Speaker 1>morning receiving the gift of the Chinese plan. Let's discuss

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<v Speaker 1>the past year and what's likely to come. With military analysts,

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<v Speaker 1>my clients, Mike served with various military organizations both the

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<v Speaker 1>US and Europe throughout his career. You know them from

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<v Speaker 1>a number of publications and networks. Mike, how are you, sir?

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<v Speaker 1>Take away, guys, great to be back. A year ago,

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<v Speaker 1>our own government was saying Kiev could fall in ninety

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<v Speaker 1>six hours. What were you thinking a year ago? And

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<v Speaker 1>looking back on what you thought, how do you respond? Yeah?

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<v Speaker 1>Probably the same Russia had tremendous capability capacity with their military.

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<v Speaker 1>They had maneuver space, they had all the things going.

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<v Speaker 1>They wound up their military machine, put about one hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and eighty thousand troops surrounded Ukraine. Came in from Belarus,

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<v Speaker 1>came in from eastern Russia. It should have been over

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<v Speaker 1>in three or four days. It should have been a

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<v Speaker 1>desert storm had they fought a combined arms fight. But

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<v Speaker 1>they instead did what Russia does best, and when a

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<v Speaker 1>military perspective comes, they just kind of slug it through,

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<v Speaker 1>and they did not use their combined arms advantage, and

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine was able to hold off and hold out for

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<v Speaker 1>what was the first few months, and then equipment starts

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<v Speaker 1>pouring in, and now we're left with a year later,

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<v Speaker 1>with a true stalemate, a war of attrician taking place

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<v Speaker 1>on both sides. Well As not only an analyst, but

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<v Speaker 1>a man who commanded troops in combat, how would you

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<v Speaker 1>describe to the layman the level of underperformance of the

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<v Speaker 1>Russian military in this so far? Oh my gosh, it's

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<v Speaker 1>hard to think about anything less than what they've done.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I you know, they had they outnumbered them

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<v Speaker 1>the Ukraine military six to one in some areas, to

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<v Speaker 1>go on the offense with artillery rounds with combined arms forces.

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<v Speaker 1>The fact that you're later the Russians don't control the

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<v Speaker 1>airspace is amazing. There was there was no real coordinated

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<v Speaker 1>plan on how they were going to take Ukraine down.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's talking brass tacks here. But the first

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<v Speaker 1>thing the United States hasn't any of these kind of

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<v Speaker 1>wars is we go off to all their air defense

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<v Speaker 1>platforms and make sure that we own the sky. Now

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<v Speaker 1>we have air superiority. Now we roll in the troops

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<v Speaker 1>from behind. And they didn't do any of that thing.

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<v Speaker 1>They just literally thought that the Ukraine military was just

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<v Speaker 1>going to roll through and got punched in the nose

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<v Speaker 1>and then and then in the fight when the fight

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<v Speaker 1>started happening. Unfortunately, Russian soldiers you know, didn't didn't answer

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<v Speaker 1>the bell. I was looking at your Twitter feed. That

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<v Speaker 1>picture you put out, is that a young U in

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen ninety know of the two privates in my Celcu

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<v Speaker 1>lefting well and two privates from my company. We fired.

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<v Speaker 1>Everybody claims they fired the first round of the war, right,

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<v Speaker 1>so that we fired. We were one of those units

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<v Speaker 1>that did. That was a day before the ground war.

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<v Speaker 1>Started at Desert Storm. We fired copperhead rounds on targets,

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<v Speaker 1>so we were already two miles inside of Iraq before

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<v Speaker 1>the war actually started. I remember listening to the VBC saying, Oh, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>the war's going to start here for your son. I'm like, nah, Actually,

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<v Speaker 1>the war is already on. We're getting up tomorrow morning,

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<v Speaker 1>we're rolling, we're rolling north. So that those are the

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<v Speaker 1>two of my good privates there that let's shut that round.

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<v Speaker 1>And Russia thought they were going to pull off that

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<v Speaker 1>sort of thing where you just you roll in and

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<v Speaker 1>take over in a couple of days, and it's a

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<v Speaker 1>it's a yeah, it's at the Allures Battle. And this

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<v Speaker 1>is where Desert Storm gave this impression that other countries

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<v Speaker 1>and other militaries can do this. And the thing about

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<v Speaker 1>it is the United States literally practiced for that battle

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<v Speaker 1>for the for ten years. They sent units to the

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<v Speaker 1>National Training Center. Anyone who's listening knows what I'm talking about.

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<v Speaker 1>You go to the National Training Center, you fight that

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<v Speaker 1>fight there, you practice. We've practiced that for about ten years.

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<v Speaker 1>We showed up from Journey. We showed up with five

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<v Speaker 1>hundred thousand troops and that's why that went that way.

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<v Speaker 1>Ussia thought that the same thing was going to happen.

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<v Speaker 1>They didn't put the same number of troops. They're about

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<v Speaker 1>one hundred and eighty thousand or so. They thought the

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<v Speaker 1>same thing was going to happen. Didn't recognize you have

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<v Speaker 1>to practice that and you have to plan on on

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<v Speaker 1>things going that way. So my clients, where are we

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<v Speaker 1>now and what's likely to take shape in the next

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<v Speaker 1>six months or so. So the history gets to this

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<v Speaker 1>spot where both sides are at a stalemate in this

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<v Speaker 1>war of attrition. Now, in the past, either side starts

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<v Speaker 1>attacking the other side's capability to wage war. Now Ukraine

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't have that capability. They can't go on the offense

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<v Speaker 1>into Russia. They can't attack you know, tank factories and

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<v Speaker 1>ammunition depots inside of Russia where their story where they're made.

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<v Speaker 1>Now Russia can. Russia is trying to do that to Ukraine,

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<v Speaker 1>but Western supplies keep pouring in. So classic war by

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<v Speaker 1>proxy on our side and the West is supplying Ukraine

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<v Speaker 1>propping them up. Without this happening, that Ukraine would be

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<v Speaker 1>in real big trouble. I think you're going to see

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<v Speaker 1>also a six hundred mile front. Just talk about the

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<v Speaker 1>offense and about I'm listening to analysts say, oh, Ukraine's

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<v Speaker 1>getting ready to go on the offense. I sit there

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<v Speaker 1>and say with what they have to have? One hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and twenty thousand troops themselves, plus six hundred plus artillery

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<v Speaker 1>and turanks and mechanized infantry vehicles, bulldozers. There's so many

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<v Speaker 1>things that are still lacking from their kit in order

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<v Speaker 1>for them to expect the success or. We have the

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<v Speaker 1>same thing on the other side. We have this hamburger

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<v Speaker 1>machine where we don't want to see Ukraine soldiers getting

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<v Speaker 1>thrown into the Russian hamburger machine because the Russians can

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<v Speaker 1>defend just as well as anybody. So I think we're

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<v Speaker 1>going to see to kind of nt it out here

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<v Speaker 1>a North and South Korea. I'm going to see a

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<v Speaker 1>DMZ between occupied land. Russia is going to take some

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<v Speaker 1>of this Ukraine land. The question is what they take

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<v Speaker 1>Crimea or not. That's how this ends. But it's not

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<v Speaker 1>ending anytime soon because Russia is going to continue to

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<v Speaker 1>fight for at least I think at least for another year.

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<v Speaker 1>So is that an argument for arming the Ukrainians more,

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<v Speaker 1>giving them the F sixteens, giving them more so that

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<v Speaker 1>they can not have it be a war of attrition,

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<v Speaker 1>which seems like it's in Russia's favor, but they can

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<v Speaker 1>launch it offensive. Well, I still don't think the F

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<v Speaker 1>sixteens matter. They don't get there on time, they're they're

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<v Speaker 1>not close air support, the kind of um you know,

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<v Speaker 1>they need four hundred tanks and then the crews demand them.

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<v Speaker 1>They need artillery, you know, five times more artillery. They

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<v Speaker 1>need a whole lot more. They need divisions worth of

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<v Speaker 1>equipment that we really can't give them. And the other

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<v Speaker 1>side that is ammunition. They're already starting to run out.

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<v Speaker 1>You heard the NATO commanders say that we're running out

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<v Speaker 1>of ammunition, artillery, ammunition, and we'd have to now ramp

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<v Speaker 1>that up on our side because we're taking stocks out

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<v Speaker 1>of Israel, We've taken stocks out of South Korea, We've

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<v Speaker 1>taken stocks out of different places. So we're gonna have

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<v Speaker 1>to start making our own ammunition here pretty soon. So

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<v Speaker 1>I think that what we're going to continue to do

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<v Speaker 1>as best we can as long as Ukraine is holding

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<v Speaker 1>the line. From their perspective, I think that's let's just

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<v Speaker 1>be happy for Hey. I know, Jack, you want to

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<v Speaker 1>ask your big question to Mike in a moment, but

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<v Speaker 1>before we get there, just out of curiosity, Mike, because

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<v Speaker 1>we have listeners who some not many, who are much

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<v Speaker 1>more sympathetic to the Russians side. Then I think a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of Americans are. Um, and and we'll say, what's

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<v Speaker 1>the matter with you guys? Research it. There actually were

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<v Speaker 1>Nazis in don Boss And then Putin's right there, d

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<v Speaker 1>nazifying it. What's your take on twenty fourteen on in

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<v Speaker 1>the so called Nazis in the situation that part of Ukraine. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>so that was a problem not solved in twenty fourteen

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<v Speaker 1>those separatists that control those areas and the Donbass reason

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<v Speaker 1>and then crimeas Russia takes it on again. Look at history,

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<v Speaker 1>Wars start like this because problems they can get to

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<v Speaker 1>kick down the road. And that's what happened here. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>that's possible, that likely could have happened. There could have

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<v Speaker 1>been pockets of those kinds of things. Um, it's hard

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<v Speaker 1>to project again our culture on anybody else's culture. Eastern

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<v Speaker 1>European you know, the Nazification or so and the impact

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<v Speaker 1>that that had over eighty years ago withinside of Europe

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<v Speaker 1>still trickles out there. It's still out there, and it's

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<v Speaker 1>it gets accelerated with social media. But yeah, there's those

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<v Speaker 1>two sides to every story, um and and there's those

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<v Speaker 1>that want to believe Russia doesn't will come out losing here,

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<v Speaker 1>and losing to them will mean likely they still keep Crimeia,

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<v Speaker 1>they keep some of those areas in the East, but

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<v Speaker 1>they've lost a tremendous face in the ground stage of

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<v Speaker 1>the green world. How important is this conflict to the

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<v Speaker 1>United States? If Ukraine lost, what would be the national

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<v Speaker 1>interest at stake here? Well, we'd have to define losing

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<v Speaker 1>for Ukraine. Right, So Ukraine's not going to win by

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<v Speaker 1>vanquishing Russia, right, that's not happening. So as long as

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine wins by having some kind of semblance of an

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<v Speaker 1>agreement of a new border for whatever that is, and

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<v Speaker 1>then the rebuilding of Ukraine starts, it's going to start

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<v Speaker 1>with them being part of the EU first and foremost,

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<v Speaker 1>and then perhaps five or six years down the road,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe they'll be now part of NATO. I think that's

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<v Speaker 1>going to be on the table as part of any

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<v Speaker 1>of these negotiations, so that I don't see Ukraine losing

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<v Speaker 1>at this point because they win by not losing in

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<v Speaker 1>some level because Russia now doesn't really have the capability

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<v Speaker 1>to vanquish Ukraine in the same side, but in the

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<v Speaker 1>same token, neither does Ukraine in the same side. With Russia, well,

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<v Speaker 1>is keeping the world order in place at stake or

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<v Speaker 1>as you have said in the past, do you feel

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<v Speaker 1>this is more of a regional conflict between Ukraine and Russia. No,

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<v Speaker 1>it's a regional conflict still. I think that that's European

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<v Speaker 1>regional conflict is still first and foremost, and we're fighting

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<v Speaker 1>it by proxy. China is a big wild card. But

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<v Speaker 1>you now see they want to negotiate a peace settlement.

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<v Speaker 1>Why because they recognize their client state Russia doesn't look

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<v Speaker 1>very favorable. It looks like they're losing, and now they

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<v Speaker 1>don't want to be part of a losing team. But

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<v Speaker 1>at the end of the day, it's in both China's

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<v Speaker 1>interest in the United States is interest to have a

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<v Speaker 1>very weak Russian military. So that's all part of this.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I know the people are a Pentagon are like, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>let's go keep it up, keep smashing them, because the

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<v Speaker 1>more of the Russian military gets destroyed, the lesser threat

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<v Speaker 1>they become. Down the road. I think the Chinese feel

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<v Speaker 1>the same way about Russia as well. Interesting, Yeah, we

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<v Speaker 1>could talk for a day and a half about the

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<v Speaker 1>China's relationship with Russia, not just the obvious day to

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<v Speaker 1>day stuff, but the historical nature and their shared border

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<v Speaker 1>and the rest of it. But perhaps another time military

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<v Speaker 1>analyst to Mike Lyons, Mike, it's always enjoyable. Thanks a million,

0:11:03.800 --> 0:11:05.800
<v Speaker 1>thanks guy, Thanks for me. Yeah, that's what you opened

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<v Speaker 1>the show with. As people, countries and people do what's

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<v Speaker 1>in their national interest and maybe the whole war of attrition,

0:11:12.840 --> 0:11:15.200
<v Speaker 1>we're in this for the long haul. Our national interest

0:11:15.320 --> 0:11:19.880
<v Speaker 1>is wearing down the Russian military and depleting them, spending

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<v Speaker 1>them into oblivion. Oh yeah, absolutely, that's absolutely a part

0:11:23.400 --> 0:11:25.319
<v Speaker 1>of it. But you know, if I was going to

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<v Speaker 1>say one thing semi complimentary about China in its leadership

0:11:29.040 --> 0:11:32.960
<v Speaker 1>is they do take the long view. They're often wildly wrong,

0:11:33.600 --> 0:11:38.200
<v Speaker 1>but they have the discipline to think about their grandchildren

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<v Speaker 1>in a way that American politics is just abysmal. At again,

0:11:42.400 --> 0:11:47.840
<v Speaker 1>their system is unspeakably terrible communism and the way they

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<v Speaker 1>see humanity, but at least they have some discipline to it.

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<v Speaker 1>So yeah, it's entirely possible they're in bed with Russia

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<v Speaker 1>to prop up Russia to get good and bled dry.

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<v Speaker 1>China is clearly the hedgemon that means the hard ass

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<v Speaker 1>in that part of the world. Yeah, one thing, and

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<v Speaker 1>I didn't I didn't want to get off track on this.

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<v Speaker 1>But the one thing I don't get is the argument.

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<v Speaker 1>And this has been going on for a year now.

0:12:14.200 --> 0:12:16.000
<v Speaker 1>Now if we give them this it takes training and

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<v Speaker 1>it would take two months to get out. Well, a

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<v Speaker 1>year has gone by and everybody thinks another year or

0:12:20.600 --> 0:12:23.040
<v Speaker 1>two or five is going to go by. So I

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<v Speaker 1>don't understand the argument of it take and take month.

0:12:25.440 --> 0:12:27.480
<v Speaker 1>It'd be a six months before they'd be in the

0:12:27.559 --> 0:12:29.400
<v Speaker 1>country and then you got a trink. But well it

0:12:29.520 --> 0:12:33.080
<v Speaker 1>would seem that we have the time. Yeah, let's plant

0:12:33.120 --> 0:12:35.319
<v Speaker 1>the oak tree today and see what happens. Yeah. I

0:12:35.880 --> 0:12:38.160
<v Speaker 1>don't quite get that argument, but you hear it a

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<v Speaker 1>lot