1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:08,480 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along 2 00:00:08,520 --> 00:00:12,319 Speaker 1: with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day 3 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:16,880 Speaker 1: for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. 4 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:22,079 Speaker 1: Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and 5 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:26,600 Speaker 1: anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, 6 00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:30,960 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. John Stolfus 7 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:33,560 Speaker 1: joints chief investment Strategist at op co Op and I'm 8 00:00:33,560 --> 00:00:36,120 Speaker 1: our asset management and we speak to him about the 9 00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:40,600 Speaker 1: bullmarket he nailed last year and continues to nail this year. John, 10 00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:42,680 Speaker 1: I'm going to take it back to the analog of 11 00:00:42,720 --> 00:00:46,920 Speaker 1: the middle seventies, a horrific recession, the leap in nineteen 12 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:51,520 Speaker 1: seventy five, and then a follow on in nineteen seventy seven. 13 00:00:52,000 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 1: It's twenty twenty four, a follow on bullmarket. 14 00:00:57,160 --> 00:01:02,000 Speaker 2: I think in many ways it is, Tom. I think 15 00:01:02,120 --> 00:01:06,880 Speaker 2: the question here really is, or rather the difference is, 16 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:11,759 Speaker 2: it's a substantially different background in terms of a digitalized 17 00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:16,200 Speaker 2: global society for business as a consumer and what was 18 00:01:16,319 --> 00:01:20,200 Speaker 2: back then, which was essentially an analog world. And I 19 00:01:20,240 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 2: think things get digested much quicker. I think that the 20 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:28,480 Speaker 2: data is a better quality. And because we've been in 21 00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:32,080 Speaker 2: crisis in an out of crisis since two thousand and eight, 22 00:01:32,959 --> 00:01:36,280 Speaker 2: all the players as well as you know, the traders 23 00:01:36,280 --> 00:01:39,480 Speaker 2: as well as the investors are more experienced with dealing 24 00:01:39,520 --> 00:01:40,480 Speaker 2: with volatility. 25 00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:44,760 Speaker 1: John, I think what's so important here is only Stolphus 26 00:01:44,840 --> 00:01:47,880 Speaker 1: is talking about last year was a prelude. I just 27 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 1: think that's so important. 28 00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:52,280 Speaker 3: Fifty two hundred price target year rent this year, John, 29 00:01:52,320 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 3: let's build on that. You and I have talked about 30 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:55,680 Speaker 3: this a few times in the last few months, and 31 00:01:55,680 --> 00:01:57,920 Speaker 3: I've appreciate it. Can we just address it right now? 32 00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:01,800 Speaker 3: How dependent that call is on interest rate cuts from 33 00:02:01,840 --> 00:02:02,520 Speaker 3: the feder Reserve? 34 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:07,560 Speaker 2: Not much really. You know, we're not of the camp 35 00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:11,760 Speaker 2: it's looking for six cuts this year in twenty twenty four. 36 00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:16,280 Speaker 2: We're looking for perhaps one or two. And we're not 37 00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:18,800 Speaker 2: looking for the first half for cuts. We think it'll 38 00:02:18,800 --> 00:02:21,000 Speaker 2: happen in the second half of the year, and lightly 39 00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:26,360 Speaker 2: later rather than earlier. In the second half. To us, 40 00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:30,600 Speaker 2: the Fed has been remarkably sensitive in practicing its mandate. 41 00:02:31,120 --> 00:02:35,239 Speaker 2: You know, where as able to comy and full employment 42 00:02:35,320 --> 00:02:39,520 Speaker 2: is described by unemployment between three and four percent, and 43 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:41,720 Speaker 2: we think it wants to keep it that way, and 44 00:02:41,800 --> 00:02:44,760 Speaker 2: so that's what we're looking at A little bit different. 45 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:48,600 Speaker 2: We like the Fed. Ironically, very few people do we 46 00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:51,000 Speaker 2: think the Fed has done. It shows the Ben Bernank 47 00:02:51,240 --> 00:02:56,040 Speaker 2: legacy carried on through Jerome Powell in the sense of 48 00:02:56,080 --> 00:02:57,920 Speaker 2: communication and clarity. 49 00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:00,280 Speaker 4: So it might not necessarily the rally my not be 50 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:01,440 Speaker 4: dependent on j. 51 00:03:01,639 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 5: Powell. 52 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:03,800 Speaker 4: But how much is it dependent on the Central Bank 53 00:03:03,840 --> 00:03:04,520 Speaker 4: of Tim Cook? 54 00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:10,640 Speaker 2: I would have to say, perhaps I'll keep it away 55 00:03:10,680 --> 00:03:14,600 Speaker 2: from a company specific here, but I would say certainly 56 00:03:14,760 --> 00:03:19,000 Speaker 2: a business, the consumer and the jobs market will play 57 00:03:19,040 --> 00:03:22,440 Speaker 2: an important role this year. Keyword to watch for is 58 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 2: resilience when we look at economic data, what we're looking 59 00:03:26,360 --> 00:03:30,320 Speaker 2: at is for things to show resilience, and naturally is 60 00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:34,320 Speaker 2: a challenging environment when you're making transitions and you have 61 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:38,600 Speaker 2: the levels of trouble around the world. The geopolitical risks 62 00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:42,520 Speaker 2: seems to keep ramping up by the day. But consider 63 00:03:42,960 --> 00:03:46,360 Speaker 2: where business plays out in this where the opportunities are 64 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:50,520 Speaker 2: both this cyclical point where we are on the calendar, 65 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 2: as well as the secular trends that are driving potential 66 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:57,600 Speaker 2: growth for all eleven sectors. 67 00:03:58,040 --> 00:03:59,880 Speaker 4: Okay, So in other words, his text still lead me. 68 00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:01,600 Speaker 4: I guess if that's the question at a time, or 69 00:04:01,640 --> 00:04:05,520 Speaker 4: that accounted for fifteen percent of the twenty four percent 70 00:04:05,560 --> 00:04:06,880 Speaker 4: game of the SMP last. 71 00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:11,560 Speaker 2: Year at least, I think tech certainly remains a major 72 00:04:11,600 --> 00:04:14,680 Speaker 2: participant in this, But I think what we need to 73 00:04:14,720 --> 00:04:18,120 Speaker 2: watch well, of course communications services, which is about fifty 74 00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:22,080 Speaker 2: percent tech related, you also have when you look at 75 00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:24,680 Speaker 2: the other sectors, just think about industrials and all the 76 00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:28,400 Speaker 2: technology in that. And it's a good customer of technology, 77 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:31,359 Speaker 2: whether it's it's sensors of robotics or what have you, 78 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:37,040 Speaker 2: and the cloud, big data and all that aon. So 79 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 2: when we look at this, it's you know, whether it's 80 00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:43,800 Speaker 2: it's a utility company, whether it's a materials company, whether 81 00:04:43,839 --> 00:04:48,120 Speaker 2: it's a pharmaceutical or a biotech. Technology is where it's at. 82 00:04:48,400 --> 00:04:51,200 Speaker 2: So we can but think. The other reason is last 83 00:04:51,279 --> 00:04:54,840 Speaker 2: year Tech was was fabulous it's performance because it had 84 00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:58,599 Speaker 2: been so brutalized in twenty twenty two when the Bears 85 00:04:58,640 --> 00:05:02,040 Speaker 2: sold all of Tech, the long duration they sold because 86 00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:04,479 Speaker 2: they were worried about red dancings, but they sold the 87 00:05:04,480 --> 00:05:09,560 Speaker 2: good stuff that was highly profitable positive cash low, create products, 88 00:05:09,600 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 2: and deeply embedded in the lives of business and the consumer. 89 00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:16,640 Speaker 1: John the cliche is the boat has left the duck. 90 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:20,360 Speaker 1: I would guess a very large percent of the surveillance 91 00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:24,800 Speaker 1: audience feels like they missed twenty twenty three. How do 92 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:27,320 Speaker 1: you get back in the game if the boat's left 93 00:05:27,320 --> 00:05:27,680 Speaker 1: the duck. 94 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:32,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, Tom, I would say for the people who missed this, 95 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:35,600 Speaker 2: I would say it's a question of layering in. That's 96 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:39,760 Speaker 2: not back up the truck. At these levels, consider opportunities 97 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:43,360 Speaker 2: that show up when you get some weakness in names 98 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:46,320 Speaker 2: that may have gotten away from you. Look for babies 99 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:50,320 Speaker 2: that get grown out with the bathwater in downdrafts to 100 00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:54,320 Speaker 2: add to positions that you're building, and in essence, what 101 00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:58,279 Speaker 2: you want to avoid is just blindly buying deps. You 102 00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:01,919 Speaker 2: want to be selective, even within what appears to be 103 00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:07,200 Speaker 2: a nicely broadening rally. After as Lisa pointed out earlier, 104 00:06:07,320 --> 00:06:09,960 Speaker 2: I mean we're still back to the future in terms 105 00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:13,160 Speaker 2: of the prices of stocks. In many cases outside of 106 00:06:13,200 --> 00:06:17,000 Speaker 2: the magnificent seventy eight there you know they've got it 107 00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:20,839 Speaker 2: would look like they've got plenty of headroom available to 108 00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:21,920 Speaker 2: move higher. 109 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:24,000 Speaker 3: In so many ways. We had a decade in a year. 110 00:06:24,040 --> 00:06:25,680 Speaker 3: As Lisha and I discussed a little bit earlier on 111 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:27,560 Speaker 3: the program, John want to put to catch up with you, sir, 112 00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:30,719 Speaker 3: Happy new year. John stelfiestet of Oppenheim arrasted management. 113 00:06:35,600 --> 00:06:37,719 Speaker 1: Right now, we need perspective, and we get it from 114 00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:40,680 Speaker 1: someone gifted. He's served the nation in the Marine Corps, 115 00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:44,800 Speaker 1: also a White House fellow, and critically he is a 116 00:06:44,880 --> 00:06:49,599 Speaker 1: king of speculative fiction with James Travitis, Elliott Ackerman's must 117 00:06:49,680 --> 00:06:52,960 Speaker 1: read two thou thirty four, boy is out of mustard 118 00:06:53,040 --> 00:06:56,480 Speaker 1: right now, given the Philippines, given the South China Sea, 119 00:06:56,560 --> 00:07:00,320 Speaker 1: and we eagerly anticipate two thousand and fifty four that 120 00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:04,400 Speaker 1: you'll see in March. Elliott Eckerman joins us this morning. Elliott, 121 00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:08,400 Speaker 1: if this is not speculative fiction, it is reality in 122 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:14,160 Speaker 1: the Red Sea. What is lost in the press coverage? 123 00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:17,240 Speaker 6: I think the one thing that is often lost is 124 00:07:17,240 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 6: we have a tendency to focus kind of specifically on 125 00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:24,920 Speaker 6: military events while losing perspective that all military events happen 126 00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:28,200 Speaker 6: in a political overlay. You know, ultimately these are political questions. 127 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:31,440 Speaker 6: What's going on in Taiwan? What's going on in Ukraine, 128 00:07:31,440 --> 00:07:34,239 Speaker 6: what's going on in Israel. And the longer these wars 129 00:07:34,280 --> 00:07:36,640 Speaker 6: play out, the more and more central the politics of 130 00:07:36,680 --> 00:07:38,760 Speaker 6: the war it self become. And what the outcome is going. 131 00:07:38,680 --> 00:07:41,080 Speaker 1: To be the heart of your fiction with the Admiral 132 00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:45,920 Speaker 1: st Vetus is things happen suddenly and then in sequence, 133 00:07:46,480 --> 00:07:50,000 Speaker 1: do we have the ships in place against these terrorists 134 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:52,640 Speaker 1: whatever you want to call them. Do we have the 135 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:58,000 Speaker 1: process in place where unexpected bad things can happen in sequence? 136 00:08:00,240 --> 00:08:03,680 Speaker 6: I think when it comes to the Middle East and 137 00:08:03,720 --> 00:08:06,360 Speaker 6: the challenges that we're seeing there, yes we do. And 138 00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:10,480 Speaker 6: that is a situation where we the United States vis 139 00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:13,920 Speaker 6: the Iranians. We are not facing a peer level adversary 140 00:08:14,160 --> 00:08:17,760 Speaker 6: necessarily in Iran. And I agree with Terry's comments that 141 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:21,320 Speaker 6: the underappreciated conflict here is Taiwan. And when it comes 142 00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:24,520 Speaker 6: to Taiwan, you know, the United States does not have 143 00:08:24,960 --> 00:08:28,880 Speaker 6: the forces in place, at least peer level forces in 144 00:08:28,880 --> 00:08:32,440 Speaker 6: place that could meet Chinese aggression across the Taiwan Straits, 145 00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:34,520 Speaker 6: and that's one of the huge challenges that we face it. 146 00:08:34,920 --> 00:08:37,000 Speaker 6: But the Chinese would be fighting that conflict in their 147 00:08:37,040 --> 00:08:39,320 Speaker 6: backyard and we would be fighting it from across the 148 00:08:39,320 --> 00:08:40,160 Speaker 6: Pacific Ocean. 149 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:42,200 Speaker 4: I want you to elaborate a little bit on the 150 00:08:42,240 --> 00:08:45,040 Speaker 4: point that you just made that all of these international 151 00:08:45,040 --> 00:08:49,040 Speaker 4: conflicts have real domestic political implications. What are some of 152 00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:52,000 Speaker 4: the ramifications that we've seen over the past year, how 153 00:08:52,040 --> 00:08:54,720 Speaker 4: the conflicts have developed, and how public opinion has shaped 154 00:08:55,080 --> 00:08:58,400 Speaker 4: the inaction that we're currently seeing in Congress to continue 155 00:08:58,440 --> 00:08:59,199 Speaker 4: providing aid. 156 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:02,760 Speaker 6: I think when we go around the go around the world, 157 00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:05,760 Speaker 6: if we look at Ukraine right now, I would argue 158 00:09:05,760 --> 00:09:07,600 Speaker 6: that that's probably a war that's not going to be 159 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:10,720 Speaker 6: decided on the battlefield as those conditions stagnate. Is a 160 00:09:10,760 --> 00:09:12,840 Speaker 6: war that's going to be decided at the ballot box. 161 00:09:13,400 --> 00:09:15,880 Speaker 6: And I think in Ukraine, in Israel, as we see 162 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:17,880 Speaker 6: this war is now extending in two months, I think 163 00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:21,120 Speaker 6: domestic political considerizations in Israel are going to determine the 164 00:09:21,160 --> 00:09:24,520 Speaker 6: outcome of their war with Hamas. And I think when 165 00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:26,920 Speaker 6: we look at the United States, you know, the elephant 166 00:09:26,920 --> 00:09:28,800 Speaker 6: in the room is we have an election. It's going 167 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:31,760 Speaker 6: to occur this fall, and how that election unfolds will 168 00:09:31,800 --> 00:09:34,400 Speaker 6: be determinatives of those conflicts. And lastly, when we look 169 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:37,160 Speaker 6: at Taiwan, I mean, in two weeks the Taiwanese people 170 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:39,440 Speaker 6: are having a presidential election, and the outcome of that 171 00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:42,760 Speaker 6: election will certainly affect China's perceptions on what they should 172 00:09:42,760 --> 00:09:43,319 Speaker 6: do in Taiwan. 173 00:09:43,559 --> 00:09:46,439 Speaker 4: How different is the foreign policy of Donald Trump versus 174 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:47,400 Speaker 4: President Biden. 175 00:09:49,280 --> 00:09:52,200 Speaker 6: I think the foreign policy of Donald Trump is much 176 00:09:52,280 --> 00:09:56,959 Speaker 6: more unpredictable, and I think the foreign policy of Joe Biden, 177 00:09:56,960 --> 00:09:58,560 Speaker 6: as we've seen it, as much more. It has it 178 00:09:58,640 --> 00:10:03,280 Speaker 6: much more incremental. So I don't think anyone can necessarily 179 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:06,600 Speaker 6: say what Donald Trump's policies would be on any three 180 00:10:06,640 --> 00:10:10,640 Speaker 6: of these conflicts Taiwan, Ukraine, or Israel, Whereas I think 181 00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:13,040 Speaker 6: we've seen sort of a more consistent approach that Joe 182 00:10:13,040 --> 00:10:14,760 Speaker 6: Biden has applied. 183 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:17,959 Speaker 1: I mean, I look, Elliott where we are, and it's 184 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:20,520 Speaker 1: about public service. There's a lot of people watching this 185 00:10:21,160 --> 00:10:24,680 Speaker 1: across this nation that have loved ones. That's the loved 186 00:10:24,720 --> 00:10:26,640 Speaker 1: ones on long tours of duty. I know that the 187 00:10:26,679 --> 00:10:30,680 Speaker 1: Ford is coming back from the Mediterranean. Are we fit 188 00:10:30,800 --> 00:10:34,920 Speaker 1: now in our defense budget for multiple wars you mentioned Taiwan. 189 00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:39,880 Speaker 1: Let's say our war Ukraine, our war Iran, maybe our 190 00:10:39,920 --> 00:10:43,040 Speaker 1: war China. Do we have a budget near capable of 191 00:10:43,080 --> 00:10:44,440 Speaker 1: meeting those three threats? 192 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:47,640 Speaker 6: I think we're I think we have to take a 193 00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:50,320 Speaker 6: very very hard look not only at the budget and 194 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:52,880 Speaker 6: the financial resources that we're applying, but you know, also 195 00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:55,360 Speaker 6: the intellectual resources. And that's actually where I have the 196 00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:58,760 Speaker 6: most concerns. You know, is a what a war against 197 00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:02,120 Speaker 6: China look like a repeat of the Second World War, 198 00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:04,000 Speaker 6: in which the coin of the realm and naval battle 199 00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:07,960 Speaker 6: or aircraft carriers eighty years after the aircraft carrier became 200 00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:10,080 Speaker 6: the corner of the realm. And I don't know that 201 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:12,360 Speaker 6: that is necessarily the case. You know, we've seen in 202 00:11:12,400 --> 00:11:15,080 Speaker 6: places like Ukraine that the Ukrainians have been very effective 203 00:11:15,480 --> 00:11:19,400 Speaker 6: in sinking Russian ships of the line with shore based missiles. 204 00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:22,240 Speaker 6: And so I know, I'm a marine veter in my 205 00:11:22,280 --> 00:11:24,480 Speaker 6: own service right now is in the midst of doing 206 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:27,800 Speaker 6: some real strategic a real strategic reset about what it 207 00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:31,040 Speaker 6: would look like to fight a revisited island hopping campaign 208 00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:33,600 Speaker 6: in the South China Sea, and they're restructuring the entire 209 00:11:33,640 --> 00:11:35,880 Speaker 6: Marine Corps to do that. So I think there's a 210 00:11:35,880 --> 00:11:39,520 Speaker 6: budgetary question, but there's also an intellectual question of you know, 211 00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:41,480 Speaker 6: what will the wars of the future look like, and 212 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:44,240 Speaker 6: that work needs to be done now, and it's going 213 00:11:44,320 --> 00:11:48,280 Speaker 6: to force some American military institutions to transform in ways 214 00:11:48,280 --> 00:11:50,240 Speaker 6: that are going to be very uncomfortable. 215 00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:51,839 Speaker 4: With the war of the future. Elliott, what's a more 216 00:11:51,920 --> 00:11:55,400 Speaker 4: effective strategy one that's predictable or one that's unpredictable. 217 00:11:57,160 --> 00:11:58,760 Speaker 6: Well, I think in terms of your battle plans, you 218 00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:01,719 Speaker 6: always want to be unpredictable. The word I would use 219 00:12:01,800 --> 00:12:06,160 Speaker 6: is one that is adaptive. Because it's very difficult to 220 00:12:06,200 --> 00:12:08,120 Speaker 6: predict what the war the future is going to be. 221 00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:10,520 Speaker 6: It's most essential not to get the prediction right, but 222 00:12:10,559 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 6: to get the prosture right so that your forces can 223 00:12:13,360 --> 00:12:16,280 Speaker 6: adapt to whatever the next conflict looks like. And to 224 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:18,720 Speaker 6: use an analogy from the Second World War, at the 225 00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:21,720 Speaker 6: outset of the Second World War, in terms of naval warfare, again, 226 00:12:21,800 --> 00:12:25,200 Speaker 6: the coin of the realm was the battleship, and it 227 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:26,920 Speaker 6: had been the corner of the realm and was the 228 00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:31,080 Speaker 6: central platform for centuries. But as we all know, you know, 229 00:12:31,080 --> 00:12:33,880 Speaker 6: Pearl Harvard, the entire US battleship fleet was sunk, and 230 00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:36,280 Speaker 6: we had this new platform, which is the aircraft carrier, 231 00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:39,640 Speaker 6: and that platform was able to adapt and become the 232 00:12:39,679 --> 00:12:42,520 Speaker 6: central force around which naval battles were fought, and I 233 00:12:42,559 --> 00:12:45,320 Speaker 6: think whatever the next war is, we're going to see 234 00:12:45,320 --> 00:12:48,640 Speaker 6: a similar process of adaptation need to occur. It's going 235 00:12:48,720 --> 00:12:50,520 Speaker 6: to have to occur very fast, and the side that 236 00:12:50,559 --> 00:12:52,680 Speaker 6: gets their right will probably be the side that wins oty. 237 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:54,840 Speaker 7: Just to finish that, what do you suspect it is. 238 00:12:57,240 --> 00:12:59,720 Speaker 6: I think it's going to probably be a network of platforms. 239 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:05,040 Speaker 6: I think it's going to be unmanned, unmanned ships, unmanned 240 00:13:05,040 --> 00:13:08,880 Speaker 6: aerial vehicles, our ability to fight both a high tech 241 00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:11,880 Speaker 6: war and also a hybrid low tech war where many 242 00:13:11,880 --> 00:13:14,959 Speaker 6: of those high tech systems are taken offline and our 243 00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:17,720 Speaker 6: forces ability to kind of toggle between the two. So 244 00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:21,160 Speaker 6: it's gonna be very, very complex, but more of the 245 00:13:21,720 --> 00:13:24,520 Speaker 6: network centric version of warfare as opposed to a platform 246 00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:27,120 Speaker 6: center version of warfare built around you know, very big 247 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:29,360 Speaker 6: ships and aircraft and things of that. 248 00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:30,000 Speaker 7: Interesting. 249 00:13:30,160 --> 00:13:32,319 Speaker 3: Interesting Elliott, thank you, I appreciate your time this morning. 250 00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:36,960 Speaker 3: Always do Happy New Year, Sir Akman, US Marine Corps veteran. 251 00:13:47,200 --> 00:13:48,120 Speaker 7: Whether surround the table. 252 00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:51,520 Speaker 3: Sarah Hunt, chief market strategist at Alpine Saxon Words, Sarah, 253 00:13:51,520 --> 00:13:55,200 Speaker 3: good morning and happy New Year. Let's revisit that quote 254 00:13:55,240 --> 00:13:57,800 Speaker 3: from Berkley's This Morning. We believe the continued period of 255 00:13:57,920 --> 00:14:01,600 Speaker 3: week results coupled with multiple expands is not sustainable. 256 00:14:01,640 --> 00:14:02,800 Speaker 7: You on the same page. 257 00:14:03,120 --> 00:14:04,280 Speaker 8: I think you almost have to be. 258 00:14:04,400 --> 00:14:07,080 Speaker 9: I mean, you know, the theme for twenty twenty three 259 00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:09,440 Speaker 9: was all about the FED and what was going to happen, 260 00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:10,079 Speaker 9: and as soon as the. 261 00:14:10,040 --> 00:14:11,240 Speaker 8: Cycle peak, you could be okay. 262 00:14:11,280 --> 00:14:13,480 Speaker 9: So if we pulled forward a lot of multiple expansion 263 00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:15,320 Speaker 9: on the back of the idea that rates are going 264 00:14:15,360 --> 00:14:17,280 Speaker 9: to come down, they're probably not going to come down 265 00:14:17,360 --> 00:14:20,240 Speaker 9: to that great Financial crisis level. If they come down 266 00:14:20,240 --> 00:14:22,880 Speaker 9: a couple hundred basis points. Is the multiple expansion already 267 00:14:22,920 --> 00:14:24,480 Speaker 9: too much? And I think that that's going to be 268 00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:26,600 Speaker 9: the big tension in a lot of them. And you know, 269 00:14:26,640 --> 00:14:28,840 Speaker 9: for Apple, which we were talking about, you've got to 270 00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:30,880 Speaker 9: look at all that consistency and all that cash onlo 271 00:14:30,920 --> 00:14:32,400 Speaker 9: and that's what people are paying for that and the 272 00:14:32,440 --> 00:14:35,600 Speaker 9: exclusivity of its Apple, and people will keep replacing those products. 273 00:14:35,600 --> 00:14:36,440 Speaker 7: It's that assessment true. 274 00:14:36,440 --> 00:14:38,840 Speaker 3: If the whole market of just a select group of 275 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:40,360 Speaker 3: stocks that dominate the market, I. 276 00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:41,480 Speaker 8: Think it's more select group. 277 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:43,360 Speaker 9: I mean, you have to I think valuations and we 278 00:14:43,440 --> 00:14:45,400 Speaker 9: keep saying and it's one of like, this is Europe's year, 279 00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:47,600 Speaker 9: this is valuation's year. It's going to matter this year, right, 280 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:49,720 Speaker 9: I don't know when it's going to matter, but at 281 00:14:49,760 --> 00:14:50,520 Speaker 9: some point it will. 282 00:14:50,560 --> 00:14:51,400 Speaker 8: I think having. 283 00:14:51,160 --> 00:14:54,240 Speaker 9: Money have a cost makes valuations matter in a way 284 00:14:54,280 --> 00:14:56,520 Speaker 9: that we had fifteen years where you know, people talked 285 00:14:56,520 --> 00:14:58,360 Speaker 9: about it, but it didn't really matter. And maybe that 286 00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:00,720 Speaker 9: starts to happen now and maybe people really start looking 287 00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:03,120 Speaker 9: at those metrics. But I think you've got a lot 288 00:15:03,160 --> 00:15:04,400 Speaker 9: of money on the table, and you've got a lot 289 00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:05,520 Speaker 9: of places that you know, I got a lot of 290 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:06,560 Speaker 9: money that needs to be invested. 291 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:09,960 Speaker 1: Frame out total return. You could go to the Bloomberg folks. 292 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:13,080 Speaker 1: The terminal tr is the function, and you can model 293 00:15:13,120 --> 00:15:16,480 Speaker 1: in and your return quickly one year back, two years back, 294 00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:19,280 Speaker 1: three years, et cetera. And the answer is we're now 295 00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:23,280 Speaker 1: addicted to oh, I made fifteen percent. I failed Blooney, 296 00:15:23,680 --> 00:15:27,080 Speaker 1: it's a single digit return. At the most, you're going 297 00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:29,280 Speaker 1: to make eleven percent. But the answer is do we 298 00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:32,280 Speaker 1: need to get use again to equity return of eight 299 00:15:32,520 --> 00:15:33,400 Speaker 1: or nine percent? 300 00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:36,800 Speaker 9: I think that you do. And I think that you 301 00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:38,600 Speaker 9: also have to look at history. I mean, yes, you 302 00:15:38,640 --> 00:15:41,080 Speaker 9: had a huge move last year, and a handful of names, 303 00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:42,760 Speaker 9: and yes, some of the other stocks started to catch 304 00:15:42,840 --> 00:15:44,080 Speaker 9: up at the end of the year. I'm just looking 305 00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:46,120 Speaker 9: at a chart of L three Harris before I come 306 00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:47,640 Speaker 9: on here, and I was like, Wow, that back end 307 00:15:47,680 --> 00:15:48,640 Speaker 9: of the performance was. 308 00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:49,440 Speaker 8: Really really quick. 309 00:15:49,880 --> 00:15:51,640 Speaker 9: I don't know where you end up with multiples here, 310 00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:53,360 Speaker 9: but I don't think that you can have the kind 311 00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:55,800 Speaker 9: of growth that we've had given the kind of economic 312 00:15:55,840 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 9: backdrop that we're looking at. 313 00:15:57,120 --> 00:15:57,160 Speaker 2: You. 314 00:15:57,280 --> 00:15:59,120 Speaker 9: If the Fed's really going to cut six times like 315 00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:01,400 Speaker 9: the market is pricing in, then we probably have a 316 00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 9: much weaker economic scenario than earnings are pricing in. 317 00:16:05,200 --> 00:16:05,680 Speaker 8: So I don't know. 318 00:16:05,960 --> 00:16:07,840 Speaker 9: There's a tension here. In twenty twenty four has got 319 00:16:07,880 --> 00:16:09,400 Speaker 9: a lot of questions that need to be answer. 320 00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:11,840 Speaker 4: You're the person I've been wanting to ask this question too. 321 00:16:12,200 --> 00:16:14,200 Speaker 4: One of the big surprises last year was that the 322 00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:16,960 Speaker 4: great underperformance came from oil. Tom and John were talking 323 00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:19,800 Speaker 4: about why that was so surprising considering some of the 324 00:16:19,840 --> 00:16:22,440 Speaker 4: conflicts that really were escalating in the Middle East. 325 00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:23,920 Speaker 9: At this point, we are seeing. 326 00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 4: Oil perkop just a touch with relative in relation to 327 00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:30,120 Speaker 4: what's going on in the Red Sea. Could this increase 328 00:16:30,320 --> 00:16:33,520 Speaker 4: if it continues, change the disinflation narrative. 329 00:16:33,640 --> 00:16:37,440 Speaker 9: Absolutely, I mean just the changing the trade routes alone 330 00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:39,680 Speaker 9: could change some of that because you're going to things 331 00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:42,880 Speaker 9: get more expensive. But you've had a huge supply response 332 00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 9: to oil demand and you've got you were talking about earlier, 333 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:48,600 Speaker 9: the US is a huge producer now right commodities are 334 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:49,360 Speaker 9: priced on the margin. 335 00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:51,360 Speaker 8: If I've got excess supply, I can't get. 336 00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:52,920 Speaker 9: Prices to really move that high, which is why the 337 00:16:52,920 --> 00:16:56,160 Speaker 9: Saudias had to keep taking oil off the market. But 338 00:16:56,360 --> 00:16:58,720 Speaker 9: if you start to see a crimping of some of 339 00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:00,880 Speaker 9: those roots and you can't move things the way you 340 00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:03,160 Speaker 9: thought you could before, then you're going to see then 341 00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:04,160 Speaker 9: you could see some problems. 342 00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:06,240 Speaker 8: And that's been a huge help for the inflation picture. 343 00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:08,640 Speaker 9: And if that changes and you start to see data 344 00:17:08,680 --> 00:17:11,119 Speaker 9: that is a little bit more inflationary, that narrative on 345 00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:12,840 Speaker 9: how much the Fed's going to cut has to change, 346 00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:15,120 Speaker 9: and then that's going to be a question. Then where 347 00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:17,440 Speaker 9: to equity multiples go given that scenario. 348 00:17:17,480 --> 00:17:19,960 Speaker 4: I know that you're bullish on energy stocks through the 349 00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:22,159 Speaker 4: beginning of last year, then you've got a little more 350 00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:24,240 Speaker 4: tapid as you saw as some of the moves at 351 00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:26,720 Speaker 4: this point, how much are you leaning in to some 352 00:17:26,840 --> 00:17:30,120 Speaker 4: of those names because of just how offsides people would 353 00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:33,119 Speaker 4: be if the disinflation narrative fades an oil prices surge. 354 00:17:33,480 --> 00:17:36,119 Speaker 9: Well, we think of energy as an area where you 355 00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:38,560 Speaker 9: need to have some position, but you trade around that position, 356 00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:40,359 Speaker 9: and you get heavier when you think that you've got 357 00:17:40,359 --> 00:17:42,240 Speaker 9: an opportunity, and you get lighter when you think that 358 00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:44,320 Speaker 9: the market is not going your way. When the supply 359 00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:46,560 Speaker 9: came up a lot, that's where you sort of lighten 360 00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:48,600 Speaker 9: up on your energy positions. I don't think you want 361 00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:50,040 Speaker 9: to be out of it entirely. You've got a lot 362 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:51,800 Speaker 9: of very good dividen yields in those and you've got 363 00:17:51,800 --> 00:17:53,880 Speaker 9: a lot of stocks that act better in a bad 364 00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:55,919 Speaker 9: market than some of the other things do. So I 365 00:17:55,960 --> 00:17:57,919 Speaker 9: think that's something you want to trade around. And we 366 00:17:57,960 --> 00:17:59,680 Speaker 9: still think that energy has a longer tail. 367 00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:02,600 Speaker 1: You've got a Barbell portfolio, You've got short term stuff 368 00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:05,000 Speaker 1: for your day trading. We know you're famous for that, Sarah, 369 00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:07,000 Speaker 1: and then you got the buy and hold. I want 370 00:18:07,040 --> 00:18:09,320 Speaker 1: you to talk to the audience that their heads are 371 00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:14,080 Speaker 1: spinning off of COVID. They're stating, Okay, COVID's over. Can 372 00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:16,840 Speaker 1: I maintain some form of three year or four year 373 00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:20,679 Speaker 1: or five year ownership of whatever equity uncomfortable? Can you 374 00:18:20,720 --> 00:18:21,640 Speaker 1: still do that act? 375 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:23,639 Speaker 9: I think you absolutely can, and I think that this 376 00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:25,840 Speaker 9: is the time to really be thinking about that thematic 377 00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:28,280 Speaker 9: trade of what's going to happen in the next few years. Right, 378 00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:31,200 Speaker 9: so we look at something like Tetratech that does all 379 00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:33,960 Speaker 9: sorts of engineering construction but basically on a lot of 380 00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:36,080 Speaker 9: water and some of the infrastructure stuff. I think that 381 00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:39,359 Speaker 9: you can definitely look at companies that have a longer 382 00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:41,400 Speaker 9: term theme that are playing into some of the things 383 00:18:41,400 --> 00:18:43,919 Speaker 9: that are going on, but the volatility within that you 384 00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:45,800 Speaker 9: have to be able to say, okay, this is where 385 00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:48,520 Speaker 9: I will allow some volatility to occur, because some of those. 386 00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:51,520 Speaker 8: Stocks that we like a lot still have had. 387 00:18:51,320 --> 00:18:53,760 Speaker 9: Some challenges in a year where someone makes an acquisition 388 00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:55,640 Speaker 9: or somebody does something. But I think you can look 389 00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:57,879 Speaker 9: at the matic investing now because you really got a 390 00:18:57,920 --> 00:18:59,920 Speaker 9: longer term view and you've got a market. 391 00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:02,360 Speaker 8: It's fairly expensive, so you better really like where you're positioned. 392 00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:05,199 Speaker 3: Let's finish on the banks, the regional banks specifically, not 393 00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:08,640 Speaker 3: a big players, the regionals Kori closely followed Regional Bank 394 00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:11,399 Speaker 3: ETF you know them well, up almost fourteen percent in 395 00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:14,720 Speaker 3: November of sixteen percent in December. Is that just a 396 00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:17,080 Speaker 3: leftige trade on what's happening in the bond market in 397 00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:19,600 Speaker 3: treasuries as yields fall aggressively or is there something to 398 00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:22,280 Speaker 3: get your hands around for twenty four I think that's. 399 00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:24,680 Speaker 9: A lot to do with what's going on with interest rates, 400 00:19:24,680 --> 00:19:26,080 Speaker 9: and I think it's also a lot to do with 401 00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:28,679 Speaker 9: people looking for okay, where has completely still been on 402 00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:30,800 Speaker 9: the floor and maybe we can pick something up here, 403 00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:33,919 Speaker 9: because the valuations on that group were very, very not 404 00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:35,679 Speaker 9: challenging relative to the rest of the market. 405 00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:37,640 Speaker 8: I think you still have issues with the yield curve. 406 00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:39,639 Speaker 9: I think it's still difficult to make some money in 407 00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:41,119 Speaker 9: some of those and I think we still have some 408 00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:44,280 Speaker 9: commercial real estate issues that we haven't flown through yet. 409 00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:46,160 Speaker 9: So it's a little bit challenging to say that that's 410 00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:48,919 Speaker 9: a definite thing about the environment as more as like 411 00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:50,160 Speaker 9: it was being picked up off the floor. 412 00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:52,159 Speaker 3: Speaking of the yeld curve, Lisa two year versus ten 413 00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:54,480 Speaker 3: year still negative thirty six basis points. 414 00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:56,000 Speaker 4: They're not going to really make up some of the 415 00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:59,959 Speaker 4: difference through lending long and borrowing short. To also Sarah's 416 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:02,760 Speaker 4: point one hundred and seventeen billion dollars of commercial mortgage 417 00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:05,639 Speaker 4: debt coming to just this year alone, that's really going 418 00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:07,440 Speaker 4: to raise some questions on that front. 419 00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:08,360 Speaker 8: With some of these reached out. 420 00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:09,760 Speaker 1: I had the same article. I believe it is in 421 00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:12,000 Speaker 1: the fteam. My brain's frozen on that right now. But 422 00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:14,800 Speaker 1: the answer John is I saw a bar chart. I'm 423 00:20:14,800 --> 00:20:18,520 Speaker 1: going to say ten cities in America, there's basically New 424 00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:22,280 Speaker 1: York in some of all the others, and maybe every 425 00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:25,200 Speaker 1: other city combined is the same as New York. I mean, 426 00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:27,720 Speaker 1: it's amazing. Now this is a local issue for us. 427 00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:30,560 Speaker 3: E Sarah, It's going to see you. Happy New year, Sarah. 428 00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:32,200 Speaker 3: About pont Snackson Woods. 429 00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:38,760 Speaker 1: Let's quickly get the ry isman of acquiry here on 430 00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:41,719 Speaker 1: global FX and all the other things that get us 431 00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:44,159 Speaker 1: back to a great bull market in the United States. 432 00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:46,920 Speaker 1: Wonderful to have your after Wiseman to get us started 433 00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:49,920 Speaker 1: for the year. Let me go to the larger view, 434 00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:52,480 Speaker 1: which is everything hinges on China. 435 00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:55,639 Speaker 10: Do you agree not for twenty twenty four? No, Although 436 00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:57,680 Speaker 10: I do think that China is a very important part 437 00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:00,600 Speaker 10: of the macro story. Globally. We have this central banks 438 00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:02,359 Speaker 10: in the US to worry about, we have the central 439 00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:04,920 Speaker 10: banks in Europe to worry about, and we have supply shocks, 440 00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:09,000 Speaker 10: especially in the natural resource markets and the oil markets 441 00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:12,520 Speaker 10: to worry about too. So China is important, but it's 442 00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:15,320 Speaker 10: not all or nothing as it comes to China. I 443 00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:17,520 Speaker 10: will say this though, I think the market is somewhat 444 00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:22,040 Speaker 10: wrong in focusing too much on the property sector in 445 00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:24,520 Speaker 10: China an agurate demand in China. I think what the 446 00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:29,920 Speaker 10: market has lost sight of to some extent is President's 447 00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:34,320 Speaker 10: willingness to go after the tech sector in China and 448 00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:39,600 Speaker 10: more generally, you know, against the whole concept of private 449 00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:42,400 Speaker 10: property in China. I think this is what is souring 450 00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:45,040 Speaker 10: sentiment for China, and I think to the extent that 451 00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:47,919 Speaker 10: that is find some relief in twenty twenty four, it 452 00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:50,520 Speaker 10: could be a bigger deal for China on the upside 453 00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:53,200 Speaker 10: than you know, some resolutions to the problems on the 454 00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:54,520 Speaker 10: balance sheet of the property sector. 455 00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:59,040 Speaker 1: There's been a multi decade failure of international stocks and 456 00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:02,480 Speaker 1: some correlated over to an ever stronger dollar. Is a 457 00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:08,119 Speaker 1: dollar finally broken where there's an unspoken opportunity in international equities. 458 00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:13,000 Speaker 10: Well, if you're asking, is the dollar is a lot 459 00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:16,600 Speaker 10: dollars a reserve currency as the standard for international trade, 460 00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:20,800 Speaker 10: international finance is over No, I know, I don't think so. 461 00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:23,280 Speaker 10: If what you're asking for, is there going to be 462 00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:26,440 Speaker 10: a structural break with regard to the status of the dollar, 463 00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:29,399 Speaker 10: international capital markets, and international trade, I think the answer 464 00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:33,720 Speaker 10: is no. Remember that we had a period before we 465 00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:37,520 Speaker 10: had globalization, before nineteen ninety five for that matter, when 466 00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:41,560 Speaker 10: China and Russia and the other emerging markets were not 467 00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:44,359 Speaker 10: that fully integrated into the global economy or the Washington 468 00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:48,120 Speaker 10: Consensus for that matter, and yet we still talked about 469 00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:50,840 Speaker 10: the dollar is the reserve currency of the world. Why, 470 00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:54,359 Speaker 10: because you know, a good part of the of the 471 00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:57,320 Speaker 10: world still depends on the dollar for its trade and 472 00:22:57,320 --> 00:23:00,560 Speaker 10: for its commerce and for its it's financing. So no, 473 00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:02,880 Speaker 10: I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon. 474 00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:04,719 Speaker 4: At least, one of the trades that we do at 475 00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:06,320 Speaker 4: the beginning of every year is to come up with 476 00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:09,399 Speaker 4: potential tail risks, which inevitably will probably be wrong. But 477 00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:12,280 Speaker 4: there is a question here. Tail risk the dollar being 478 00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:14,920 Speaker 4: somehow profoundly debased, seems to be off the table. From 479 00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:17,439 Speaker 4: what you just said, what about a sort of the 480 00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:21,000 Speaker 4: tail risk of some sort of significant supply shock. You 481 00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:23,920 Speaker 4: sort of alluded to that initially in the commodity space, 482 00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:24,240 Speaker 4: so that. 483 00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:26,479 Speaker 10: I think is a bigger tail risk, and I think 484 00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:29,560 Speaker 10: it behooves every investor out there to at least have 485 00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:33,080 Speaker 10: some oil in one's portfolio, be long oil, because when 486 00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:36,560 Speaker 10: you think about US recessions in the postwar period, you'll 487 00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:38,720 Speaker 10: find it an amazingly large number of them had been 488 00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:43,880 Speaker 10: preceded by a rapid rise in oil prices. You'll see that, 489 00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:47,159 Speaker 10: and it behooves investors to have some oil in the 490 00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:49,840 Speaker 10: portfolio because we just don't know to the extent that 491 00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:52,400 Speaker 10: we do have a supply shock. Oil prices will go up, 492 00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:56,120 Speaker 10: and you'll offset the losses you would otherwise experience from 493 00:23:56,119 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 10: seeing stocks go seeing bonds go down. In that context, 494 00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:01,280 Speaker 10: this raises a. 495 00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:03,760 Speaker 4: Question to me of how off size the market would 496 00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:06,760 Speaker 4: be should there be some sort of oil supply shock. 497 00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:09,600 Speaker 4: Given the fact that people have kind of gotten accustomed 498 00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:12,000 Speaker 4: to the idea that the US is a producing record amounts, 499 00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:14,399 Speaker 4: and then even in the phase of conflict, oil prices 500 00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:18,440 Speaker 4: went down, how wrongly positioned are people for this kind 501 00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:19,760 Speaker 4: of this kind of event. 502 00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:23,159 Speaker 10: I don't know how wrongly positioned they are. There is 503 00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:25,840 Speaker 10: a case to be made, however, for the logic of 504 00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:28,720 Speaker 10: oil prices having come down in the last few months, 505 00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:32,240 Speaker 10: and the logic is very straightforward. The elasticity of supply 506 00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:35,159 Speaker 10: in oil is actually quite high, potentially higher than the 507 00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:39,600 Speaker 10: market surmised before six months ago. What we have seen 508 00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:42,439 Speaker 10: with the increase in oil prices that preceded this decline 509 00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:44,680 Speaker 10: is a huge increase in oil production in the US, 510 00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:47,680 Speaker 10: and that is the basis for why oil prices are down. 511 00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:49,800 Speaker 10: But if we were to get a shock, a shock 512 00:24:49,800 --> 00:24:51,600 Speaker 10: out of the Middle East, for example, a shock out 513 00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:56,000 Speaker 10: of Russia, it's not conceivable that production can go up 514 00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:59,840 Speaker 10: quickly enough to offset that in a very short period 515 00:24:59,880 --> 00:25:02,320 Speaker 10: of and that's the risk that we face right now 516 00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:05,639 Speaker 10: from these shocks. Over the long term, there'll be an 517 00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:10,239 Speaker 10: adjustment in US supply that's positive and beneficial, but not 518 00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:11,159 Speaker 10: in the short term. 519 00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:13,240 Speaker 7: Is the US donar a commodity currency now? 520 00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:16,360 Speaker 10: No, I don't think so. Certainly the market doesn't see 521 00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:19,480 Speaker 10: it that way, right. It's interesting there are some emerging 522 00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:25,480 Speaker 10: markets that we don't necessarily associate that much from the 523 00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:28,680 Speaker 10: perspective of their current account balance and their trade with oil, 524 00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:31,639 Speaker 10: because they're not huge net exporters Brazil, for example, but 525 00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:34,359 Speaker 10: they are large producers. And yet the market tends to 526 00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:37,960 Speaker 10: associate the Brazilian real with oil more than it does 527 00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:40,000 Speaker 10: associate the US dollar with oil. 528 00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:41,520 Speaker 7: Do you expect that to change anytime soon? 529 00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:42,080 Speaker 11: No? 530 00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:45,159 Speaker 10: I don't think so. And that's because no one's going 531 00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:50,760 Speaker 10: to really associate the US with a very large net 532 00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:53,399 Speaker 10: export balance in oil. It really has to get to 533 00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:57,040 Speaker 10: a point where US trade is dominated by oil, and 534 00:25:57,080 --> 00:26:00,000 Speaker 10: that is not the case. Yet it's still dominated by services. 535 00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:02,760 Speaker 3: Knowledge very true, TK The number is just absolutely staggering 536 00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:06,000 Speaker 3: when it comes to production, thirteen million barrows a day 537 00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:06,800 Speaker 3: in this country. 538 00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:09,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, well, it's interesting here is we don't have an 539 00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:12,080 Speaker 1: oil policy. I mean, we take great pride that Washington 540 00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:15,760 Speaker 1: has never come up with the plan. We've got this plan, 541 00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:20,040 Speaker 1: that plan, whatever plan. I guess it's a technological success. 542 00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:20,760 Speaker 4: Not sure. 543 00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:22,120 Speaker 1: We needn't want no plan. 544 00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:23,879 Speaker 7: Well to that point, do we need one? 545 00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:26,200 Speaker 3: It's Washington is the White House of renovant with regards 546 00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:27,840 Speaker 3: to this conversation, only. 547 00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:30,919 Speaker 10: To respect that oil is such a geopolitical issue, and 548 00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:34,240 Speaker 10: of course geopolitics and politics generally have to manage you 549 00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:39,200 Speaker 10: through diplomacy or through some management of market forces that 550 00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:42,639 Speaker 10: are relevant to geopolitics. That's ok. There's a case be 551 00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:45,320 Speaker 10: made for the energy market to be managed from that perspective. 552 00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:46,959 Speaker 10: But if it wasn't for the importance of oil from 553 00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:49,760 Speaker 10: a geopolitical perspective, I don't think so. 554 00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:51,439 Speaker 7: Terry. It's good to see you. Happy new year. 555 00:26:51,560 --> 00:27:02,679 Speaker 3: Thank you, sir, Terry Wiseman of Macquarie. 556 00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:06,840 Speaker 1: We're beginning strong this year, and part of that is 557 00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:09,479 Speaker 1: with Doug Cass, who is many of you know out 558 00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:14,600 Speaker 1: on social media. Seabree's Partners is a great pinata and Doug, 559 00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:19,240 Speaker 1: before we get to your always interesting, thought provoking ten ideas, 560 00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:23,560 Speaker 1: if I'm cautious on the market, or if I'm short 561 00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:26,080 Speaker 1: on the market and the market runs away from me 562 00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:28,800 Speaker 1: the other direction, what do you do? 563 00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:29,439 Speaker 11: What do you do? 564 00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:33,480 Speaker 1: In December? Given this bull market leg up? How did 565 00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:34,359 Speaker 1: you respond? 566 00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:39,360 Speaker 5: We were short in two time frames. One was timely 567 00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:46,080 Speaker 5: mated after July after the majorly I run, but we 568 00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:49,520 Speaker 5: didn't lose money in the majorly run, and we were 569 00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:54,200 Speaker 5: net short in November and December. We didn't lose money either. 570 00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:55,639 Speaker 1: And now how do you do that? I think a 571 00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:57,800 Speaker 1: lot of people want to know, Doug, how do you 572 00:27:57,920 --> 00:27:59,000 Speaker 1: not lose money? 573 00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:04,080 Speaker 5: It's tough, you know, to begin with, Why did I 574 00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:05,560 Speaker 5: get it wrong in the last two months? I think 575 00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:09,439 Speaker 5: I underestimated the animal spirits and the price momentum that 576 00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:12,600 Speaker 5: had been accumulated. I underestimated the power of the herd 577 00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:16,320 Speaker 5: as the pressure on the upside intensified, and so did Fomo. 578 00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:22,119 Speaker 5: I understand. I estimated the contribution from market structure, which 579 00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:26,960 Speaker 5: had basically intensified the upside to equities, and same applies 580 00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:29,159 Speaker 5: to interest rates. The momentum and the yields to the 581 00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:33,560 Speaker 5: downside accelerated. And you know, we live in a market 582 00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:36,479 Speaker 5: which is has a structure. It's far different than I 583 00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:38,880 Speaker 5: started when I was a housing analyst kit or Peabody. 584 00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:41,959 Speaker 5: Buyers live higher and sellers of lower, so you have 585 00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:48,600 Speaker 5: to adapt. Warm Buffett said the first two lessons on 586 00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:51,680 Speaker 5: investing don't lose money, and the second lesson is don't 587 00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:55,440 Speaker 5: forget the first lesson. So we trade opportunistically around short 588 00:28:55,480 --> 00:29:00,000 Speaker 5: positions and risk averse. Because my short book is pretty diversified, 589 00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:02,680 Speaker 5: and when I'm wrong, I take a lot of small 590 00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:07,120 Speaker 5: office that's the answer. But as we entered the new year, 591 00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:08,160 Speaker 5: I am not short. 592 00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:13,080 Speaker 11: So how do you think about here this twenty twenty four? Again, 593 00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:16,760 Speaker 11: I think the you know, late October through the year 594 00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:18,920 Speaker 11: end twenty three caught a lot of people by surprise, 595 00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:21,240 Speaker 11: the vigor of that rally here. So what do we 596 00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:22,320 Speaker 11: do here on January second? 597 00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:27,719 Speaker 5: Well, I always find it amusing that there is now 598 00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:32,160 Speaker 5: a universal view almost after the quantum rise, especially the NASDAC, 599 00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:35,680 Speaker 5: the markets are headed higher. However, I think it's important Paul, 600 00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:39,520 Speaker 5: to observe how wrong the confident consensus has been in 601 00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:41,760 Speaker 5: each of the last two years. If you remember, in 602 00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:44,120 Speaker 5: the end of twenty twenty one, the herd was optimistic. 603 00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:46,800 Speaker 5: In twenty twenty two was a disaster. We had such 604 00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:49,760 Speaker 5: a bad experience in twenty twenty two that the consensus 605 00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:56,560 Speaker 5: ended that year wildly confident, and that especially but this 606 00:29:56,720 --> 00:29:59,800 Speaker 5: time barish, especially on tech stocks, and that couldn't be 607 00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:04,240 Speaker 5: for their off sides. Today, the consensus found the momentum 608 00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:06,400 Speaker 5: is very bullish and an area bear can be found. 609 00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:10,280 Speaker 5: In fact, many of the bears that I watch when 610 00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:13,440 Speaker 5: I'm on the desk stars the NBC have now become bulls. 611 00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:19,360 Speaker 5: So I see a vast of a ray of unexpected political, geopolitical, economic, 612 00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:22,760 Speaker 5: and market surprises that could be untapped for next year. 613 00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:26,400 Speaker 5: And my biggest concern is the equity risk premium. And 614 00:30:26,480 --> 00:30:29,640 Speaker 5: despite the enormity of the drop in yields, the equity 615 00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:32,360 Speaker 5: risk premium is still paper thin, and historically this is 616 00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:34,680 Speaker 5: a reasonable predictor of weak markets. 617 00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:40,960 Speaker 11: Paul Apple, Yeah, exactly, Doug surprises for twenty twenty four. 618 00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:43,400 Speaker 11: What should Maybe we're not thinking about it. 619 00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:47,440 Speaker 5: I mean we should, sure. I think one of the 620 00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:51,000 Speaker 5: things we're not thinking about is in part due to 621 00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:53,920 Speaker 5: fear that the Democrats will continue to hold on to 622 00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:59,960 Speaker 5: the presidency. Foreign powers step up military confrontations and my surprise, 623 00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:03,120 Speaker 5: my second surprise, is that the West continues to lose 624 00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:06,960 Speaker 5: patients with how the war is going with Ukraine, as 625 00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:10,600 Speaker 5: a US backs off and support and negotiations of a 626 00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:13,480 Speaker 5: territorial split began and Ukraine is forced to give up 627 00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:17,479 Speaker 5: east side of the country. North Korea, with support from Russia, 628 00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:21,440 Speaker 5: undertakes skirmishes in the DMZ and makes threats to invade 629 00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:25,480 Speaker 5: South Korea. Iran completes its nuclear build up, which provides 630 00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:29,640 Speaker 5: a direct attack from Israel. Though China doesn't invade Taiwan, 631 00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:34,240 Speaker 5: it continues with aggressive war game tactics in the Kia Sea. 632 00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:38,040 Speaker 5: So my feeling is that the global economy, Tom and 633 00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:42,240 Speaker 5: pol are more susceptible to supply shocks than has generally believed. 634 00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:45,920 Speaker 5: And with Russia and Saudi conspiring on production cuts, I 635 00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:48,400 Speaker 5: wouldn't be surprised as a surprise that the price of 636 00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:50,960 Speaker 5: oil exceeds one hundred and ten dollars a barrel, and 637 00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:54,640 Speaker 5: the price of a gallon gasoline US approaches six dollars, 638 00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:59,440 Speaker 5: and shares of Exxon oxy chevron each rise by a 639 00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:00,520 Speaker 5: third in the year. 640 00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:02,600 Speaker 1: Doug, I want to get to send it's so important 641 00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:06,200 Speaker 1: within all of this, you really go after the Blackstones, 642 00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:09,200 Speaker 1: the Apollos of the world. You say, private equity quote 643 00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:12,440 Speaker 1: to get torn to shreds. Discuss that that's important for 644 00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:13,400 Speaker 1: global wall Street. 645 00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:19,440 Speaker 5: Sure, Surprise number seven is Wall Street's most vicious vultures. 646 00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:22,880 Speaker 5: Private equity are about to get torn to shreds. And 647 00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:27,880 Speaker 5: remember we still Tom have elevated interest rates, and we 648 00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:32,000 Speaker 5: have a slowing global economy. We have the loan rate 649 00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:35,880 Speaker 5: reset cliff beginning at the last half of this year, 650 00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:40,440 Speaker 5: and I think it's going to contribute to a leader 651 00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:44,840 Speaker 5: in private credit failing. Blackstone shares could drop by a 652 00:32:44,880 --> 00:32:49,160 Speaker 5: third after the BREI, which is the private real estate 653 00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:52,920 Speaker 5: fund run by the company, and the public fund bx 654 00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:57,480 Speaker 5: MT come under new redemption pressures. And finally, I wouldn't 655 00:32:57,520 --> 00:33:00,680 Speaker 5: be surprising. I was involved as a director of a 656 00:33:00,840 --> 00:33:04,600 Speaker 5: business development company in New York Stock Exchange and I 657 00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:10,680 Speaker 5: personally saw vividly the phony marks in our books. So 658 00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:14,440 Speaker 5: my surprise is that shares a private equity stocks like KKR, 659 00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:19,440 Speaker 5: Apollo and Blackstone plunge as the SEC opens and investigation 660 00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:23,640 Speaker 5: into the failure of the private equity industry to realistically 661 00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:26,600 Speaker 5: marked to market their portfolios in the timely manner. 662 00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:30,320 Speaker 11: Wow, interesting because that's been an issue for a long time, 663 00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:33,480 Speaker 11: particularly now that these companies are public. How about private credit, Doug, 664 00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:36,400 Speaker 11: This is a new business for you, Tom and me. 665 00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:39,120 Speaker 11: Over the last decade or something. It's just exploded in 666 00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:41,640 Speaker 11: terms of size. We were all comfortable with, or we 667 00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:45,080 Speaker 11: think we understand private equity, but private credit has become 668 00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:48,240 Speaker 11: a huge business and it just doesn't feel like it 669 00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:50,880 Speaker 11: gets the regulatory scrutiny that they get. 670 00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:54,960 Speaker 5: The regulatory scrutiny at all. Paul it's hurting the banking industry. 671 00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:59,120 Speaker 5: It's one of the reasons why I'm so negative on banks, 672 00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:02,880 Speaker 5: besides the credit cycle, the emerging credit cycle. So this 673 00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:07,720 Speaker 5: is something to watch, you know, whenever there is such 674 00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:13,360 Speaker 5: quantum increase in balance sheets as are currently in private equity, 675 00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:14,640 Speaker 5: we have to be on the alert. 676 00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:18,240 Speaker 1: Well, speaking of alert, Doug, I got time for one question. 677 00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:21,920 Speaker 1: I read my Padres in Red Sox the athletic coverage 678 00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:26,640 Speaker 1: this week. I'm sorry Juan Soto for the dreaded New 679 00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:31,360 Speaker 1: York Yankees. He's basically Weighe bogs with power that changes 680 00:34:31,400 --> 00:34:32,680 Speaker 1: the Yankees lineup, doesn't. 681 00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:36,719 Speaker 5: It's a massive move for the Yankees. Our team has 682 00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:40,600 Speaker 5: lacked left hand sluggers in recent years, and we never 683 00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:46,160 Speaker 5: had the necessary lineup support for Aaron Judge. Remember, he 684 00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:49,480 Speaker 5: bats left handed right and he's fully capable of taking 685 00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:53,200 Speaker 5: advantage of the short porch in right fielded Yankee Stadium. 686 00:34:53,640 --> 00:34:57,560 Speaker 5: I think we're one Jordan Montgomery type away through the 687 00:34:57,640 --> 00:35:06,000 Speaker 5: World Series. But the problem is Montgomery, Montras, Manea Lugo, 688 00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:09,000 Speaker 5: they're all going, they're all signing. But this is a 689 00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:13,680 Speaker 5: powerful lineup from may U Sodo, Judge, Zo, Stanton Torres, 690 00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:15,040 Speaker 5: twenty seconds. 691 00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:19,920 Speaker 1: Dougcast, could you do something about the food at Yankee Stadium? 692 00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:24,279 Speaker 5: People that live in glasshouses in Fenway Park? 693 00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:29,480 Speaker 1: Doug, Thank you so much. Doug Cass the series partners. 694 00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:33,719 Speaker 1: Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify, and 695 00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:38,080 Speaker 1: anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday 696 00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:41,799 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the 697 00:35:41,960 --> 00:35:46,480 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 698 00:35:46,520 --> 00:35:50,560 Speaker 1: can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always. I'm 699 00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:54,600 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keane and 700 00:35:54,680 --> 00:35:56,239 Speaker 1: this is Bloomberg. 701 00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:02,280 Speaker 2: I know how p