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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna just mop that action, all.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 2: Here we go.

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Speaker 3: Throwing. We're sitting up to cash touts.

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Speaker 1: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go just win.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible ball. I like to make money, all right.

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Speaker 2: This is the ultimate kabaka.

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Speaker 3: And we are underway.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm your host, Matt Moore,

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Speaker 1: filling in for Evan Abrams, who's about partying with Chad

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Speaker 1: and Simon from the favorite podcast in Philly for their

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Speaker 1: live show as we recording this episode, So we're gonna

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Speaker 1: have a little party of our own here as my

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Speaker 1: good friend and colleague Brandon Anderson.

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Speaker 3: Is with me for his weekly Best Best episode.

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Speaker 1: I don't get to talk NFL in person with him enough.

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Speaker 1: I'm just always texting him about it every hour of

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Speaker 1: the day while I'm swimming deep in the NBA pool

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Speaker 1: over at Buckets, our daily NBA betting podcast, which you

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Speaker 1: should check out for more action. I'm excited to kick

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Speaker 1: things around a bit here with Brandon as we get

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Speaker 1: his plays for NFL Week fifteen.

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Speaker 3: Brandon, how you doing, buddy?

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Speaker 2: Doing well? You know it's December. We're on the home

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Speaker 2: stretch here. I can almost smell the NBA in the

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Speaker 2: rise and the season starts soon, right, basketball starts like right

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Speaker 2: after football. Is that how this goes?

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Speaker 1: According to our editorial staff, Yes, that is accurate. That's

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Speaker 1: that's how that goes.

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Speaker 2: NB Cup's been a lot of fun this week. Be

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Speaker 2: sure to check out Pockets, be sure to listen to

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Speaker 2: all those episodes. Well, we got semifinals Saturday and finals

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Speaker 2: coming up on Tuesday. It'll be fun.

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Speaker 1: That's right, that's right. We'll have episodes for you on

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Speaker 1: that on buckets. I've been hipping you up on my

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Speaker 1: buckets because I know you had a tough week last week.

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Speaker 3: But I also knew.

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Speaker 1: I told everybody, I was like, a storm is coming,

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Speaker 1: because if Brandon has that kind of a week, I

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Speaker 1: know what he's gonna do.

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Speaker 3: He's gonna stew over it all week.

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Speaker 1: He's gonna be pissed for two days, and he's gonna

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Speaker 1: come back with some absolute bangers. And I'm sure that

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Speaker 1: we got those on today's show. But we do have

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Speaker 1: some stuff to talk about.

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Speaker 2: First.

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Speaker 1: I want to start here, Okay, I want to look

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Speaker 1: ahead to the playoffs.

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Speaker 3: We're at week fifteen.

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Speaker 1: We're wrapping up the regular season where the playoff picture

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Speaker 1: is starting.

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Speaker 3: To come into shape.

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Speaker 1: I want you to guess right now what the team

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Speaker 1: with the most wrong line, good or bad, will be

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Speaker 1: on the wild card weekend.

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Speaker 3: So either a team that's gonna.

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Speaker 1: Be favored by way too much or the team that's

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Speaker 1: gonna be way too much of a dog, and that

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Speaker 1: you're gonna be texting me being like, what is this line?

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Speaker 3: I'm insulted? What's that team gonna be here?

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Speaker 2: Brandon, I'm coming out of firing you ready for this? Yeah,

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs are gonna be favored by too much on

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Speaker 2: a wild card weekend. I'm just kidding. I mean, I

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Speaker 2: do think that could happen. We'll come back to them. Okay,

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Speaker 2: here's the real one. The NFC two seed is not

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Speaker 2: gonna be favored by enough. It's either gonna be the

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Speaker 2: Eagles or the Lions. Probably the Eagles. The way things

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Speaker 2: are looking right now, I think they'll be playing either

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Speaker 2: the Vikings or probably the Commanders. And I think that

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Speaker 2: either either case, you've got either a rookie Jane Daniels

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Speaker 2: on the road or not rookie Sam Darnold on the

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Speaker 2: road against just two NFC juggernaut type teams in a

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Speaker 2: playoff setting that I am going to love everything about

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Speaker 2: a matchup, everything about that line. You know how I

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Speaker 2: love to bet the big favorite. This is the time

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Speaker 2: you want to bet the big favorite in the playoffs,

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Speaker 2: Like it's going to set up. I think for the

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Speaker 2: top heavy NFC to have effected, not effectively too bias,

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Speaker 2: that's too far. Washington Minnesota are solid, but it's definitely

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Speaker 2: a line I'm going to play on two versus seven.

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Speaker 2: I know the trends have been pretty strong for the

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Speaker 2: two seeds as well since we expanded, so I think

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Speaker 2: that's not a team but that spot I would look

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Speaker 2: to play, and then probably the other one. I think

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Speaker 2: I'll probably be on the Chargers. Likely on the road

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Speaker 2: in Houston or Pittsburgh would be the most likely scenario,

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Speaker 2: and I think I'll probably like that as a nice

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Speaker 2: underdog spot and probably a money line upset player.

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Speaker 1: Ooh, Chargers Steelers would be something that would be something

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Speaker 1: I do.

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Speaker 3: Like your pick of the NFC two seed.

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Speaker 1: That makes a lot of sense from the perspective of

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Speaker 1: I could see you being like, this team's really good,

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Speaker 1: this other team's fine, but also they're not really good

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Speaker 1: and so I could I could definitely see that being

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Speaker 1: your thing. We'll see if that comes true when we

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Speaker 1: get to Wildcar weekend.

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Speaker 3: I want to ask you, you know, you and I talk.

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Speaker 1: A lot about process on both buckets and then our

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Speaker 1: tax our text chats all over all the time. I

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Speaker 1: want to what's your process for re examining where teams

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Speaker 1: are now compared to where they were, and say like

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Speaker 1: week four or week eight, like, as you're going along,

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Speaker 1: what does it take to get you to kind of

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Speaker 1: re examine what you think of team is and how

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Speaker 1: do you go about kind of changing from your priors

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Speaker 1: and even your priors that you had formed a couple

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Speaker 1: weeks into the season.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think that's the thing is we're

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Speaker 2: always learning, Like football is such a small sample sport

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Speaker 2: that you've got to be learning and adjusting your prior

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Speaker 2: is every game, even in game if you're a live

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Speaker 2: better I don't do a lot of live betting, but

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Speaker 2: everything is constantly changing instead of Week four in week eight,

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Speaker 2: week four is almost history at this point, Like week four,

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Speaker 2: remember the Saints, Remember the first two weeks of the

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Speaker 2: Saints games when they're putting up like forty five a

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Speaker 2: game ancient history out here. Week four, the Eagles are

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Speaker 2: two and two. They lost to the Falcons, they lost

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Speaker 2: to the Bucks, they barely beat the Saints. There's Taka

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Speaker 2: firing Siriani. Then they had a bye. We haven't lost

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Speaker 2: since then, like September effectively, especially the way that teams

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Speaker 2: treated it now. September is preseason. A lot of good teams,

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Speaker 2: especially use that to round in the form. There's a

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Speaker 2: lot of new coaches, there are new rookies and younger

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Speaker 2: players breaking in. It matters. You're getting lots of new

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Speaker 2: data real fast. The way that I'm re examining things

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Speaker 2: is I look, especially late in the season, a lot

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Speaker 2: of like last six weeks, you're gonna hear that metric

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Speaker 2: come up a lot. I want to see what does

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Speaker 2: it look like lately, last six weeks of EPA, DVOA,

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Speaker 2: some of those metrics, and then I want to zoom

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Speaker 2: out and see the big picture too, Like when I'm

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Speaker 2: looking at your team and I've got, Okay, here's your

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Speaker 2: season long offense defense rating whatever it is. Okay, but

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Speaker 2: now zoom back into this stretch, this stretch when you

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Speaker 2: played three really good teams, your toughest stretch of the season.

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Speaker 2: How'd you do during that part? Are you a playoff

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Speaker 2: team because you're in the NFC South or AFC South.

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Speaker 2: Are you a playoff team because you actually like held

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Speaker 2: up against some of these teams? Or are your metrics

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Speaker 2: really good because you're pounding terrible teams? Now that matters.

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Speaker 2: That's not invalid. You might play another terrible team coming up,

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Speaker 2: but in the playoffs you might have to play not

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Speaker 2: a terrible team. And I should take that into account.

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Speaker 2: Late in the season, we have so much more data.

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Speaker 2: We got quarters and haves data that's a little more meaningful.

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Speaker 2: Now we got home road splits, we got play types.

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Speaker 2: I'm always very hesitant to use that until about this

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Speaker 2: time of the year because you know how I'm with

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Speaker 2: a sample size, like it's just not enough data and

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Speaker 2: football is already low sample. The last thing you want

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Speaker 2: to do is be cutting out extra stuff. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: I think injuries always a play here. Guys coming and going.

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Speaker 2: It's impossible to keep track of everything by just watching

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Speaker 2: what's their coaching development and player development as the season

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Speaker 2: goes along, Like we're always learning and you're always trying

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Speaker 2: to beat the book. Right where I was trying to

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Speaker 2: stay where I was, trying to learn more faster than

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Speaker 2: the books are equally learning and adjusting their prices, and

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Speaker 2: you know that's the game cat and mouse.

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Speaker 1: I guess, all right, Well that said, what's the biggest

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Speaker 1: prior that you've had to reassess this season? And what

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Speaker 1: did you learn from it? If there is one, if

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Speaker 1: there's anything to learn.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So I looked back at like the preseason stuff, like, Okay,

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Speaker 2: who are my notes? Who are my biggest positions on?

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Speaker 2: So an easy one I have the Dolphins is the

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Speaker 2: number one offense. Okay, well, that obviously readjusted real fast

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Speaker 2: to a got hurt. That's kind of an easy, boring one.

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Speaker 2: So I had the Cleveland Browns number three in my

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Speaker 2: power ratings before the season. Let's call that an adjustment.

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Speaker 2: So obviously Deshaun Watson was cooked. We saw that real

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Speaker 2: fast and knew there was a possibility. I hope they

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Speaker 2: would turn to Jamis a little faster. They didn't. I

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Speaker 2: think the real lesson here, though, is I had them

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Speaker 2: the number one defense. They were number one last year

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Speaker 2: most of the year. Jim Schwartz defense. You and I

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Speaker 2: have Texas about this as well. I think You're right

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Speaker 2: on this defense is not always so sticky, especially elite defense.

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Speaker 2: And it's not just the Browns. I had the Jets

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Speaker 2: defense really high. The Jets are team we know. I

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Speaker 2: got crushed on the Jets this year. I had there

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Speaker 2: and Rodgers MVP stock at Jets Playoffs, at Jets super Bowl.

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Speaker 2: I don't think Rogers has been so terribly awful a season.

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Speaker 2: He's not been an MVP certainly. I think the line

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Speaker 2: wasn't good, the defense wasn't good, the coaching wasn't good.

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Speaker 2: The whole idea of Rogers into a super Bowl ready

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Speaker 2: team didn't happen because the rest of the team wasn't

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Speaker 2: good enough. The defense really fell off. The Cowboys defense

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Speaker 2: really fell off this year. Forty nine ers in the

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Speaker 2: Saints routinely top ten defenses fell off, and then the

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Speaker 2: team profile slips along with that. So I think just

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Speaker 2: reassessing defenses where I feel pretty good going into the

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Speaker 2: season about like I can have a pretty good handle

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Speaker 2: on which offense will be good, which offense might be mediocre,

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Speaker 2: who will be bad? On the flip side, defense unpredictable

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Speaker 2: Chargers and Broncos two of my big misses on the

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Speaker 2: other end of things. I had mostly written off the

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Speaker 2: Broncos entirely. I had the under chargers. I like Harbaugh,

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Speaker 2: I like the line, I like Herbert, but I was like, oh,

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Speaker 2: there's no talent there, and the defense has been so

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Speaker 2: good Jesse Minter's unit that they've made a huge leap too.

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Speaker 2: So I think watching defense, to me, that's just me

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Speaker 2: admitting I'm not as good evaluating defense. So maybe it's

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Speaker 2: I'm not as good at that, or maybe it's unpredictable,

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Speaker 2: some of both. But I think learning as you go,

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Speaker 2: and also defense is harder. You need more data to

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Speaker 2: tell like did the quarterback just have a bad day

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Speaker 2: against you? Was it bad weather? So I think trying

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Speaker 2: to assess and reassess defense is what's really hard.

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Speaker 1: What I've noticed about this is it carries through with

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Speaker 1: the sports, where at least in NBA we have the

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Speaker 1: same problem where these defenses it's very hard to maintain

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Speaker 1: a top five defense year over year.

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Speaker 3: It's not that teams don't do it.

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Speaker 1: Orlando's going to do that this season, Boston's probably going

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Speaker 1: to do that this season. The Minnesota Timberwolves, which was

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Speaker 1: the number one defense last year, they're still good they're

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Speaker 1: like eight, not elite, and that flip matters a lot,

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Speaker 1: I think for the carryover effects in what their win

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Speaker 1: profile looks like. I think we see some of the

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Speaker 1: same in the NFL as well. Okay, so, sir, I

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Speaker 1: have a question. Your most recent.

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Speaker 3: Article over at the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: Is titled how to fade the Overrated Chiefs. I'm a

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Speaker 1: third generation Chiefs fan, Sir. My grandfather helped build Arrowhead.

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Speaker 3: How dare you? Is my first question? And second of all,

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Speaker 3: you bet the Ravens.

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Speaker 1: The Ravens in a way to fade the Chiefs like

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Speaker 1: we have beef, Sir, we have beef.

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Speaker 3: Explain yourself, all right?

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Speaker 2: So I didn't read the headline. The headline I wanted

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Speaker 2: was the Chiefs can't keep getting away with us, and

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Speaker 2: I feel good about that version of it. I don't

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Speaker 2: know if I need to call Patrick Mahomes overrated. Look,

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Speaker 2: fourteen straight one score wins. We all know it's ludicrous.

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Speaker 2: There's no way to explain it. You don't have a

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Speaker 2: way to explain it either. You just get to be

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Speaker 2: on the winning side of it. If you look at

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Speaker 2: the way one score stuff goes that ten of those

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Speaker 2: this season. Even if I say, okay, not coin flip,

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Speaker 2: it's Patrick Mahomes. Let's go six and four in those games.

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Speaker 2: Let's give them a weighted coin to flip. Then the

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Speaker 2: Chiefs are like an eight and five team. Now, look,

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Speaker 2: it doesn't matter, they're winning them all. That doesn't matter

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Speaker 2: looking back. It does matter looking forward in the regular season,

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Speaker 2: not so much in the postseason. I have to treat

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Speaker 2: you like the eight and five team that you are,

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Speaker 2: not the thirteen and one or whatever it is right now,

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Speaker 2: twelve and one. I have to treat your profile fresh

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Speaker 2: because you're zero and zero. Now you still earn the

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Speaker 2: home game or home games probably, but I think that's

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Speaker 2: how I have to look at it going forward. So

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Speaker 2: I think the one seed race could be open. But

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Speaker 2: more importantly, plus five hundred Super Bowl odds on the Chiefs,

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Speaker 2: I just cannot get there. It is mystique and Mahomes

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Speaker 2: and history is like the jersey. The jersey and the

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Speaker 2: Mahomes of it all is the only reason you're price

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Speaker 2: at that short, And look, Mahomes is a pretty good

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Speaker 2: reason to price it that way. And I do think

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Speaker 2: that the Chiefs will be better in the postseason than

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Speaker 2: they are in the regular season. We've seen that happen,

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Speaker 2: we saw happen last year, but plus five hundred so

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Speaker 2: far off that My main takeaway in the article is less.

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Speaker 2: I think that line is so bad that it implies

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Speaker 2: value on every other AFC contender, basically Buffalo h They're

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Speaker 2: pretty close, not much there, but I think Baltimore has value.

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Speaker 2: That was my pick at eleven to one. I think

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Speaker 2: if you like the Chargers, then you like the Steelers.

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Speaker 2: All those teams, the number is off. I'm not saying

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Speaker 2: they're going to do it. I don't want to bet

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Speaker 2: on the Steelers making a Super Bowl a run, but

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Speaker 2: I think if you like them, you have reason to

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Speaker 2: better right now because the Chiefs are eating so much

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Speaker 2: of the market value and what I think is an overpriced,

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Speaker 2: not overrated, overpriced Chiefs team that Look, I'm a numbers guy.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna play the number. The Chiefs are a bad number.

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Speaker 2: The Ravens are a bad number in our favor. It's

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Speaker 2: the longest you could get on the Ravens since Week three.

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Speaker 2: There's still a good team, there's still what they've been

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Speaker 2: the whole one. I think they're better now than they

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Speaker 2: were then. So eleven to one that's the pick.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I should.

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Speaker 1: I'm just gonna have our video team plaster over your

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Speaker 1: text to me about Lamar Jackson and during his games

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Speaker 1: while you're saying this with a straight face to me, Look,

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Speaker 1: I can't disagree.

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Speaker 3: It's like there's no way to say that the price

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Speaker 3: is accurate.

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Speaker 1: They're being priced like their record and not like how

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Speaker 1: they've played and everyone. But the trick is that everyone

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Speaker 1: knows it right. The books are like the books are

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Speaker 1: acting like they don't know. They're like, what, there's twelve

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Speaker 1: and one? What okay? Here you can have all these

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Speaker 1: other teams and you know, we'll see how that goes.

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Speaker 1: The other thing I would say is I always get

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Speaker 1: to this question of do you really think Lamar Jackson's

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Speaker 1: beating Patrick Mahomes and Arrowhead. The thing is he's like

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Speaker 1: he might not, because I've told you I'm way more

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Speaker 1: worried about a random upset from a not very good

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Speaker 1: team versus Kansas City like Pittsford or the Charger or

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Speaker 1: the Broncos. I'm way more worried about those guys sneaking

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Speaker 1: up on Kansas City and then they go, you know,

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Speaker 1: if the Ravens were to get by the Bills in

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Speaker 1: this theoretical bracket, then they get pat then the Ravens

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Speaker 1: get a way easier opponent at home. That means Lamar

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Speaker 1: Jackson can go and lose in the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 3: Like, there's lots of ways.

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Speaker 1: For Lamar Jackson to lose. Here is what I'm trying

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Speaker 1: to say, and you'd have a good price on it.

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Speaker 1: Bill's Lions this week is a huge game, obviously the

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Speaker 1: best game on the board. It's an odd spot for

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Speaker 1: both teams. It's a letdown game for the Lions because

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Speaker 1: they're coming off this big win over the Packers. It's

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Speaker 1: a bounce gap back game for the Bills coming off

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Speaker 1: their loss to the Rams, in which Josh Allen like

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Speaker 1: everyone is just like, I mean, people cannot be more

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Speaker 1: amazed at what Josh Allen did.

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Speaker 3: I mean one to get no way, he didn't.

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Speaker 1: He lost the game by the way to the Rams.

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Speaker 1: It's also a potential Super Bowl preview. How do you

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Speaker 1: factor all that stuff in in when you're trying to

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Speaker 1: figure out how to cap that game.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's hard, like you have to factor it in.

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Speaker 2: But let me add to the list here. I think

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Speaker 2: it's a semi letdown spot for the Bills. Here's their

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Speaker 2: last three games. The Chiefs game, which obviously was the

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Speaker 2: huge one they wanted, then the Niners game in the

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Speaker 2: snow that Josh Allen caught his own touchdown, and then

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Speaker 2: the Rams game that they put up forty two points

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Speaker 2: on that Josh Allen has an all time fantasy game.

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Speaker 2: Like three huge games, three MVP games in a row

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Speaker 2: by Josh Allen, like we had that the Heisman moment.

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Speaker 2: Three games in a row. I think that is a

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Speaker 2: letdown spot. Also, on the other hand, after this game,

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Speaker 2: the Bills play Patriots, Jets, Patriots, so go ahead and

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Speaker 2: empty the tank. Buffalo, this is it, like you can

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Speaker 2: do everything you want, go ahead and get the win.

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Speaker 2: You're gonna win out from here in all likelihood, Detroit.

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Speaker 2: Detroit's an extra rest. They played Thursday, two thursdays in

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Speaker 2: a row, So Thursday off of normal arrest is now

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Speaker 2: extra rest. What they played extra rest after a really

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Speaker 2: physical game, a really tough game for them. The letdown

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Speaker 2: spot against the Packers, and then you get all the

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Speaker 2: end what about all the Lions injuries. We'll all the

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Speaker 2: defensive injuries. Another thing too, Detroit, This game matters a

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Speaker 2: little less for them. They can afford a loss here

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Speaker 2: against an AFC team. Like I know, we think of

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Speaker 2: it as a super Bowl preview, but the fact that

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Speaker 2: it's a super Bowl preview actually makes it slightly less

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Speaker 2: valuable to these teams. You need the NFC wins for

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Speaker 2: the tiebreakers. Detroit can loose here, went out and they

356
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Speaker 2: still the tiebreak on the Eagles and the vikings for

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Speaker 2: the division and the one seed. Buffalos already clinched their division,

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Speaker 2: So if it gets away a little bit, they don't

359
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Speaker 2: really need it so much, especially like if the Chiefs

360
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Speaker 2: are way up and roll into a one seed. Possibly

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Speaker 2: that's what Buffalo's playing for here. So I don't know,

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Speaker 2: it's how do you factored all in? If it's a

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Speaker 2: super Bowl preview, then do you go all out for

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Speaker 2: the win or are you saving some of your plays back?

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Speaker 2: Are you like holding back a little bit because we

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Speaker 2: might have to play you again in two months when

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Speaker 2: it actually matters. The answer for me is, I'm not

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Speaker 2: playing a side here. We'll come back to it. I've

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Speaker 2: got play in the total. I've got a couple of

370
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Speaker 2: long shots. If I don't love a side, know what

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna do. I'm not just gonna be like, Eh,

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Speaker 2: don't know out in this game, it's Bill's Lions. I've

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Speaker 2: gotta bet Bill's Lions. We're all watching it this weekend.

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Speaker 2: So I'm just gonna keep digging until I find some

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Speaker 2: goofy long shot that I think does have odds.

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Speaker 1: I've told you, I get a real sense from this

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Speaker 1: of this being Ravens Niners from last year in that

378
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Speaker 1: MVP candidate secures his award with a big win versus

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Speaker 1: one a team considered to be one of the best

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Speaker 1: in the NFL, maybe the best in the NFL, and

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Speaker 1: that doesn't matter because Patrick Mahomes wins the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 1: But look, I know you don't think it should matter

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Speaker 1: when you're doing MVP stuff, and this is always like

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Speaker 1: a process for award.

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Speaker 3: Voting bothers you.

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Speaker 1: But if Jared Goff has a phenomenal game and he

387
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Speaker 1: beats Josh Allen heads up in the fourth to last

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Speaker 1: week of the season, and the Lions finished with a

389
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Speaker 1: better record, what does.

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Speaker 3: That do to the MVP market?

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Speaker 2: So I think was this is a great question, to

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Speaker 2: be honest, because here's the first thing. It does Josh

393
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Speaker 2: Allen and the Bills lose. What is that a fourth game.

394
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Speaker 2: At that point, the Ravens have five losses. The two

395
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Speaker 2: quarterbacks in a not great quarterback season that look like

396
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Speaker 2: MVP candidates are not winning enough. Like an MVP profile.

397
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Speaker 2: We know how this goes. You're a quarterback that wins.

398
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Speaker 2: That's the profile. Joe Burrow is not even the conversation,

399
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Speaker 2: even though Joe Burrow has the metrics and numbers of

400
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Speaker 2: an MVP, because this team has the losses and that's

401
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Speaker 2: on a quarterback and that counts. So what happens? What

402
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Speaker 2: do you do here? Saquon's plus five p fifty at

403
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Speaker 2: one book. I do think people really seem to want

404
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Speaker 2: the running back, Like once a decade we're like, what

405
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Speaker 2: if we just all pretend quarterbacks aren't the thing that

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Speaker 2: matters in this sport, of all the sports. What if

407
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Speaker 2: we just all are like, hey, remember McCaffrey, he was

408
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Speaker 2: really good? What if he's the MVP. No, McCaffrey's not

409
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Speaker 2: the MVP. Saquon's not the MVP, But sometimes we give

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Speaker 2: them the MVP. Like I'm a Vikings fan. The last

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Speaker 2: MVP and not quarterback was Adrian Peterson. Is you're gonna

412
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Speaker 2: win every now and then and the rules don't even

413
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Speaker 2: matter if you're running back. Peterson was like the sixth seed.

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Speaker 2: I think that your last team in he got in

415
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Speaker 2: on the final day of the season, had a moment there.

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Speaker 2: Here's the problem with Saquon. I know, I just said

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Speaker 2: it doesn't really matter with winning, but if Goff's really

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Speaker 2: that good in this game and the Lions go get

419
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Speaker 2: the one seed, that's a little bit of a case

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Speaker 2: against Saquon because now they're not the one seed presumably

421
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Speaker 2: in that scenario. I think, and I'm not just pandering

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Speaker 2: to you here, I think Patrick Mahomes at forty to

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Speaker 2: one is an absurd price this point of the season.

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Speaker 2: If the Chiefs went out there, Look, I said, it

425
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Speaker 2: doesn't matter. All the one score stuff counts. They're winning

426
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Speaker 2: one score games because of Mahomes. We all know this.

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Speaker 2: Nobody needs numbers for that. We've all watched the games.

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Speaker 2: We know what's happening if they get to sixteen and one,

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Speaker 2: And like Josh Allen's can of out because he's got

430
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Speaker 2: a bunch of losses and Lamar's can of out, and like,

431
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Speaker 2: am I really voting for a running back? I'm not

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Speaker 2: voting for running back. There will be voters like that.

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Speaker 2: How about the pla we all know is the best

434
00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:03,360
Speaker 2: player on a sixteen and one team. How about that?

435
00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:05,040
Speaker 2: How about we don't look back in a decade and

436
00:20:05,040 --> 00:20:07,520
Speaker 2: we're like, wait, wait, wait, hold on, hold on. There

437
00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:09,440
Speaker 2: was a year where the Chiefs were sixteen to one

438
00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:12,560
Speaker 2: at the peak of Patrick Mahomes and he did not

439
00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:15,480
Speaker 2: win MVP, wasn't top three in odds right now. I

440
00:20:15,560 --> 00:20:17,080
Speaker 2: just think it's a little crazy. And here's the last

441
00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:20,280
Speaker 2: thing about golf. It's too much brock party to me.

442
00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:22,600
Speaker 2: And I know that was my thing last year. I

443
00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:24,920
Speaker 2: had the fifty to one. I was ready, it was Christmas.

444
00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:27,560
Speaker 2: It was great. It was terrible. Here's the problem with Purty.

445
00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:31,800
Speaker 2: You can win, you can't win MVP now, but you

446
00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:35,680
Speaker 2: can't lose it again. After this game, what's the rest

447
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:40,399
Speaker 2: of the schedule at Chicago, uh oh? Outdoors in the winter,

448
00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:44,760
Speaker 2: Jared Goff don't like that. At San Francisco, there's plenty

449
00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:47,040
Speaker 2: of windy out there to two outdoor games in a row,

450
00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:49,960
Speaker 2: two of US three for the season, and then home

451
00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:54,119
Speaker 2: against Minnesota against Brian Flores, all that blitzing, all that defense.

452
00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:57,399
Speaker 2: They've been good against them, but that is three huge

453
00:20:57,440 --> 00:21:02,120
Speaker 2: potholes that Jared Goff has to face. So I think

454
00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:04,440
Speaker 2: you can get that ticket. And if you're right, if

455
00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:07,200
Speaker 2: the lines win and goth is good, that is gonna

456
00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:10,159
Speaker 2: be a great, great looking ticket on Monday. I'm the

457
00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:13,280
Speaker 2: king of getting the great looking tickets that look even

458
00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:16,120
Speaker 2: better on Monday. It's not gonna look good three weeks

459
00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:19,040
Speaker 2: from now. There's too many potholes. I can't get there

460
00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:22,280
Speaker 2: with Gough. If you can get a ticket and sell

461
00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:25,080
Speaker 2: your ticket or cash out your ticket, great great play

462
00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:27,840
Speaker 2: this week. Love it. Most books have gotten rid of that.

463
00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:31,359
Speaker 2: They smoked it out, and I don't know what happens

464
00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:34,199
Speaker 2: with the actual winner. I would take forty to one

465
00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:36,080
Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes rather than I take Jared Gough.

466
00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:38,040
Speaker 3: I think you need to flip it.

467
00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:39,679
Speaker 1: I think you need to take Lamar Jackson to win

468
00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:41,399
Speaker 1: MVP because they just can't get it.

469
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:44,040
Speaker 2: Never you're never gonna going to say that they can't.

470
00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:46,359
Speaker 1: They can't stop giving this guy MVPs.

471
00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:49,600
Speaker 2: I considered it to be honest just because it'd make

472
00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:50,160
Speaker 2: me so mad.

473
00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:52,480
Speaker 3: Zero super Bowl wins.

474
00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:55,719
Speaker 1: Let's get your week fifteen best bets, and let's talk

475
00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:57,640
Speaker 1: about Texans and Dolphins.

476
00:21:57,720 --> 00:21:59,000
Speaker 3: What do you like in this game.

477
00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:01,480
Speaker 1: Let's start it off, man with your best bets for

478
00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:02,119
Speaker 1: Week fifteen.

479
00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:11,280
Speaker 3: This is your best bet. Yeah.

480
00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:14,240
Speaker 2: I love this Texans game. I love the first half play,

481
00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:16,760
Speaker 2: so I'm taking Texans first half minus half a point.

482
00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:19,520
Speaker 2: So basically it's the Texans first half money line home

483
00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:23,080
Speaker 2: against the Dolphins. I wanted this play so bad that

484
00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:24,680
Speaker 2: it wanted it on the look Ahead and on the

485
00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:27,160
Speaker 2: Hot Red, but you can't because it's no halftime lines yet.

486
00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:29,800
Speaker 2: So I put it into the app on Monday, I

487
00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:32,600
Speaker 2: got the pickloaded up here. Look, I have these teams

488
00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:35,480
Speaker 2: basically rated about equals. This is not really a matchup play.

489
00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:39,000
Speaker 2: It's more of a spot play for me. Miami coming

490
00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:42,120
Speaker 2: off an overtime game, high yardage, overtime game, so an

491
00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:44,560
Speaker 2: exhausted game for the defense. The Texans are coming off

492
00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:46,480
Speaker 2: of buye a week, so already that's a really good

493
00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:49,240
Speaker 2: spot early for them. And then a couple of trends

494
00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:50,960
Speaker 2: here that jumped out and why I wanted this one

495
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:54,920
Speaker 2: home Favorites off of a bye a week of seven

496
00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:58,480
Speaker 2: or last points eighty three, sixty three and twenty two

497
00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:00,960
Speaker 2: against the spread, fifty seven percent on ats in the

498
00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:05,840
Speaker 2: first half, so you want early, the shortish home favorite.

499
00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:08,359
Speaker 2: And then you especially want them if they're Houston, because

500
00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:10,719
Speaker 2: you already know this stat. Evan's been saying on this

501
00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:14,159
Speaker 2: podcast for like a month or two now. Houston eleven

502
00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:16,639
Speaker 2: and two ats in the first half, two and eleven

503
00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:19,159
Speaker 2: ats in the second half. I don't want the Texans

504
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 2: in the second half. I don't know what's gonna happen

505
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:22,560
Speaker 2: with this game. I want my money and I'm gonna

506
00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:25,840
Speaker 2: get out. Miami is only five and eight ats first half.

507
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:28,360
Speaker 2: And it's not just fluky ats stuff. You look into

508
00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 2: the numbers a little more. Deva splits first half Texans

509
00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:35,920
Speaker 2: number one on defense, number fifteen offense. It doesn't seem

510
00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:38,399
Speaker 2: great until you remember they're twenty six on offense in

511
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 2: the second half. They're terrible and they're not being a

512
00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:42,960
Speaker 2: great offensive team all season. And what they can do

513
00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:47,240
Speaker 2: is script a few plays. Bobby Slowick can script the

514
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:48,800
Speaker 2: heck out of a game and give you a little

515
00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:52,080
Speaker 2: bit of points the first few drives, especially if you

516
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:54,840
Speaker 2: just had an extra week to prepare. Bobby, can we

517
00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:57,239
Speaker 2: get like a twenty five plays script? Can we get

518
00:23:57,280 --> 00:23:59,240
Speaker 2: a couple extra plays that are good before you tank

519
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:01,639
Speaker 2: the rest of the game. I like that. I also

520
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:05,240
Speaker 2: don't mind Demiko Ryans with the whole extra week to

521
00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:08,879
Speaker 2: prepare for this kind of jank Mike McDaniel offense that

522
00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:12,960
Speaker 2: we know doesn't do well historically against really good defenses,

523
00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:15,920
Speaker 2: so I think that sets up well. The Texans defense

524
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:18,280
Speaker 2: is still the best unit on the field with an

525
00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:21,840
Speaker 2: extra week to prepare. Now, look, Aziz al Shari is out.

526
00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:23,880
Speaker 2: I don't love that against middle of the field, that's

527
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:27,359
Speaker 2: where the Dolphins have really attacked. But I'm gonna trust

528
00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:31,760
Speaker 2: Demiko a linebacker to have found some answers, and I

529
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:34,240
Speaker 2: have to see to approve it against a great defense

530
00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:36,560
Speaker 2: in a playoff type setting, which I think this game.

531
00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:38,480
Speaker 2: So I don't want garbage time, I don't want second

532
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:41,919
Speaker 2: half Texans first half minus half a point. I put

533
00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:43,760
Speaker 2: it in for two units. One of my bigger plays

534
00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:44,680
Speaker 2: of the season out right.

535
00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:48,920
Speaker 1: Wow, I think it's it's interesting from the respective Chad

536
00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:50,800
Speaker 1: and Simon talk a lot about how the Dolphins don't

537
00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 1: like physical matchups, right, Like the cool weather stuff is

538
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:55,679
Speaker 1: one thing. This isn't a cool weather matchup obviously, but

539
00:24:56,160 --> 00:24:58,080
Speaker 1: I do think it's like an interesting matchup there with

540
00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:00,080
Speaker 1: the Texans defense and how physical they can and and

541
00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:03,439
Speaker 1: that kind of angle I think is pretty good. And

542
00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 1: then you've limited to the first half the solid cap

543
00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:08,280
Speaker 1: agree that one. This next one is going to get

544
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:11,639
Speaker 1: you excommunicated from the Action Network universe. I can't believe

545
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:12,480
Speaker 1: that you're on this.

546
00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 3: What do you got next?

547
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:17,120
Speaker 2: I am fading the raw Ra Steelers. Give me the

548
00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:22,000
Speaker 2: Eagles minus five against the Steelers, like it's the keystone rivalry, right,

549
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:25,320
Speaker 2: we get the cross state Pennsylvania rivalry. And the numbers

550
00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 2: here are prestart. They only play every four years, but

551
00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:29,639
Speaker 2: the home team in the Super Bowl era and this

552
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 2: rivalry is sixteen and three straight up. The home team

553
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:35,480
Speaker 2: dominates these teams. Care about this rivalry? The road team

554
00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:38,600
Speaker 2: has not won since two thousand, which was an overtime.

555
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:41,560
Speaker 2: They haven't won a regulation since nineteen eighty eight. So

556
00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:44,120
Speaker 2: I like that set up for the Eagles. What about

557
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:45,919
Speaker 2: the Steelers? What do we know about them? Okay, well

558
00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:50,440
Speaker 2: we know great defense, good coaching, Russ Moonbows. That's the profile.

559
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 2: That's what always the Steelers are is the defense great?

560
00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:57,280
Speaker 2: Are we sure the defense is great? Because they're number eight,

561
00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:01,880
Speaker 2: number eight in DVOA. However, in the season they're fourteenth

562
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:05,800
Speaker 2: in run defense by DVA and more recently, they've been

563
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:10,119
Speaker 2: truly bad by the metrics. Last six games. They're the

564
00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:13,320
Speaker 2: number three pass defense but number thirty one run defense

565
00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:16,640
Speaker 2: by DVUA, their bottom three EPA per play against the run,

566
00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:20,000
Speaker 2: bottom three success rate against the run. Guess who you

567
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:22,400
Speaker 2: don't want to play if you can't stop the run.

568
00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:26,760
Speaker 2: The Philadelphia Eagles, the run heaviest team with the best

569
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:30,800
Speaker 2: offensive line run blocking in the league. Look, all the

570
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:33,800
Speaker 2: talk this week is AJ Brown's quote, what do the

571
00:26:33,800 --> 00:26:35,440
Speaker 2: Eagles need to do better passing?

572
00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:36,680
Speaker 3: Well, duh.

573
00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:39,400
Speaker 2: They're number one at everything else since the bye week,

574
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:42,199
Speaker 2: their number one run defense, pass defense, run offense. It's

575
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:44,400
Speaker 2: the only thing they can do better. They're still good

576
00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:46,640
Speaker 2: passing the ball with AJ Brown too. And look, frankly,

577
00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:50,880
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh's elite pass defense is mostly their pass rush, which

578
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:54,000
Speaker 2: is elite. Pittsburgh's cornerbacks I think are bottom five in

579
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:55,840
Speaker 2: the league. I think if you get a little time

580
00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:58,679
Speaker 2: AJ Brown Demanta Smith can own those guys too. On

581
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:02,320
Speaker 2: the other side, Pickens looks likely out. There's not a

582
00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:04,439
Speaker 2: lot of other weapons over there. Pittsburgh just doesn't have

583
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:07,320
Speaker 2: a lot to offer against what's an elite defense. Right now,

584
00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:11,920
Speaker 2: back to the raw racks communication thing. Not all underdog

585
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:13,960
Speaker 2: spots are raw ra if you dig into it a

586
00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:17,600
Speaker 2: little bit, those trends are better at home. They're on

587
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:21,200
Speaker 2: the road here in the division, no division here off

588
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 2: a loss, they just want a game. I don't think

589
00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:25,040
Speaker 2: this is a good raw rass, but I think it

590
00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:27,639
Speaker 2: is a good spot for the Eagles. Jalen Hurts eighteen

591
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:31,040
Speaker 2: and nine ats against teams over five hundred, and then

592
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:33,960
Speaker 2: December or later when two teams that are seventy percent

593
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:38,400
Speaker 2: win percent or better, thirty four seventeen and three ats

594
00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:41,439
Speaker 2: just back in the favorite So both of those trends

595
00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:44,640
Speaker 2: sixty seven percent. I like the Eagles. I think they

596
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:48,040
Speaker 2: are just a bad matchup for the Steelers. Eagles minus five.

597
00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:52,639
Speaker 3: All right, so the money is on the Steelers.

598
00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:54,960
Speaker 1: But we're tracking sharp signals in the Action Network Pro,

599
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:57,480
Speaker 1: which you can get on the Action Network out. Sign

600
00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:00,600
Speaker 1: up for that and you can yell brandon'sta. By the way,

601
00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:04,440
Speaker 1: we're tracking sharp signals on the Eagles. Here it's five,

602
00:28:05,280 --> 00:28:07,080
Speaker 1: it's five, there's some five and a half. Is there

603
00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:10,200
Speaker 1: a cutoff point for you, like, are you comfortable with six?

604
00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:13,720
Speaker 2: It's a good question. I would definitely prefer before the six.

605
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:15,639
Speaker 2: I don't mind it at the six. But this is

606
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:17,639
Speaker 2: actually not too far from the number I have it.

607
00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:19,280
Speaker 2: It's not a number of play for me. It's about

608
00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:22,719
Speaker 2: the matchup. But between like the four to six range,

609
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:24,879
Speaker 2: I don't care four and a half, five, five and

610
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:27,000
Speaker 2: a half. I'm gonna get clipped for saying that watch

611
00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:29,400
Speaker 2: is gonna be like a five point game. Now. Five

612
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:31,280
Speaker 2: is a number. I can't care that much about it.

613
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:33,520
Speaker 2: It's not a key number. It's whatever the opposite of

614
00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:36,640
Speaker 2: a key number. So that range, I don't care. That's

615
00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:39,360
Speaker 2: kinna where it sat this week. I would play now

616
00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:42,040
Speaker 2: because I don't think it's going to get down to

617
00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:45,640
Speaker 2: four enough to be valuable enough to have waited. But

618
00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:48,880
Speaker 2: it could get to six, especially with the sharp that

619
00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:52,160
Speaker 2: you're tracking there. So yeah, I don't mind it at six.

620
00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 2: I would definitely take five five and a half. Not

621
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:55,080
Speaker 2: a huge difference there.

622
00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:59,480
Speaker 1: All right, Say night football is a return for you

623
00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:02,560
Speaker 1: to your favorite island. Tell me what you're playing on

624
00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:03,440
Speaker 1: Sunday night football.

625
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:06,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, give me the Seahawks Seahawks plus three hopefully if

626
00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:09,200
Speaker 2: you can grab it. I don't understand this line. I

627
00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:11,760
Speaker 2: make Seattle favorite here. I have a Seattle anywhere from

628
00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:13,520
Speaker 2: like minus one and a half to minus two and

629
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:16,280
Speaker 2: a half. I have them power rated to basically equal,

630
00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:19,160
Speaker 2: but I have Seattle one spot higher here at home.

631
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:21,280
Speaker 2: I don't understand why green Bay is such a big

632
00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 2: favorite here. Now, that's what I thought, and then I

633
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:26,000
Speaker 2: dug in. I was like, uh, oh, I found the

634
00:29:26,040 --> 00:29:28,960
Speaker 2: matchup problem. I figured out why green Bay is favored here,

635
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 2: and it's their early down offense. Seattle defense has been

636
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:34,080
Speaker 2: all the talk. That's the thing everyone's talking about lately.

637
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:35,880
Speaker 2: I've been talking about them for a while. So the

638
00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 2: defense has been a really good outside of weeks four

639
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:40,400
Speaker 2: to six, which I've said this a lot, they had

640
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:43,080
Speaker 2: three games and eleven days. They were missing like half

641
00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:46,280
Speaker 2: the starters. They were terrible in that stretch. Outside of that,

642
00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:49,800
Speaker 2: Seal's top five overall defense, top five run, top five pass.

643
00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 2: They've been better at home than on the road. Defensively,

644
00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:54,800
Speaker 2: I think it could be a bad matchup for Jordan

645
00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:58,000
Speaker 2: Love if he has to actually beat a confusing front

646
00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:01,880
Speaker 2: and pressure of defense, he can make big mistakes. But

647
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 2: the Packers are dominant on early down offense, like a

648
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:08,840
Speaker 2: top three team in the season even better lately. They

649
00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:10,800
Speaker 2: stay ahead of the chains, they run the ball, they

650
00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:13,880
Speaker 2: moved the football, And I remember, having been on Seattle

651
00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 2: Island much of the season, Seattle's defense early was getting

652
00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:21,320
Speaker 2: crushed on early downs. It was like third and two

653
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:24,480
Speaker 2: to death every single drive, and they could not get

654
00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:27,000
Speaker 2: off the field because they were just giving up chunk

655
00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 2: plays early on. So I looked into the numbers for

656
00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:33,880
Speaker 2: the season early down Seattle is bottom courd of the

657
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 2: league on DVA. They're number one on third downs. But

658
00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:39,920
Speaker 2: if you look at the splits a little bit, this

659
00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:42,080
Speaker 2: is where it kind of swung me back. First six

660
00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 2: games that includes that rough stretch, Seattle was number thirty

661
00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:49,360
Speaker 2: one defense on EPA per play, running, in passing on

662
00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:53,880
Speaker 2: early downs. They were elite outlier good on late downs,

663
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:55,560
Speaker 2: so we kind of didn't notice because it sort of

664
00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 2: brought things back to the average there and they still

665
00:30:57,680 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 2: hung in there since then when they actual we played well.

666
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:05,280
Speaker 2: Their top ten unearly downs defensively ePaper play still top

667
00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:08,480
Speaker 2: five on late downs. Those are real numbers, those are

668
00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:12,280
Speaker 2: no outliers. Those are balanced good defense, elite numbers, and

669
00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:14,320
Speaker 2: the Packers have not been good on late downs, so

670
00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:17,880
Speaker 2: all that is to say Seattle's defense has improved enough.

671
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 2: Leonard Williams. They brought an Ernest Jones at linebacker. They

672
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:25,680
Speaker 2: can handle the run enough to get to a third down.

673
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:29,760
Speaker 2: Now Mike McDonald releases the Hounds. Now things go crazy,

674
00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:33,120
Speaker 2: and I think Sales defense can hang. On the flip side,

675
00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:36,800
Speaker 2: I think Gino can hang. Packers are bottom ten pass

676
00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:39,000
Speaker 2: rush winner rate. They don't get a lot of pressure

677
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 2: on the quarterback Gyle Alexander is still limited or could

678
00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:44,040
Speaker 2: be out. Seales got a lot of weapons. I think

679
00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:47,280
Speaker 2: Gino can hang there. Look I like the Packers to

680
00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:49,280
Speaker 2: be honest. I like the Packers and the Seahawks. I

681
00:31:49,280 --> 00:31:51,720
Speaker 2: think they are both Super Bowl contenders if they could

682
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 2: get you know, get hot it, get the right matchups.

683
00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:56,120
Speaker 2: I just think it's the wrong number, and especially if

684
00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 2: you get a plus three, I think it's worth waiting

685
00:31:58,200 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 2: for a plus three. Green Bay's got a lot of

686
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:03,680
Speaker 2: injury guys possibly coming back, So Seattle plus two and

687
00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:05,680
Speaker 2: a half, you need it, but wait and try to

688
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:07,680
Speaker 2: get the plus three if you can. On Sunday night.

689
00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:10,320
Speaker 2: I think the Seahawks are just priced wrong and could

690
00:32:10,320 --> 00:32:11,320
Speaker 2: get the win out right here.

691
00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:16,080
Speaker 1: Money's on green Bay sharp signals on Seattle. Another one

692
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:19,160
Speaker 1: here for Brandon. I did just look this up as

693
00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:22,959
Speaker 1: you were talking. The last six weeks. The Seahawks, as

694
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:26,080
Speaker 1: you mentioned, are the second best EPA per play in

695
00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 1: late down situations, which I focus too much on because

696
00:32:29,360 --> 00:32:32,600
Speaker 1: I think it's really important to high leverage situations. Yeah,

697
00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 1: Packers are down to twenty second offensively in those late

698
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:38,440
Speaker 1: down situations, so like if they just can't stay on

699
00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:41,280
Speaker 1: the field, that could be. That's like the recipe for

700
00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:43,560
Speaker 1: Seattle is long drives, great defense.

701
00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:46,960
Speaker 2: Crazy is that the last Packers game we saw Packers lines.

702
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:49,200
Speaker 2: I believe the Packers converted to one third down the

703
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:52,040
Speaker 2: entire game. Now, granted that's because they were just moving

704
00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:53,760
Speaker 2: the ball in first and second down most of the game,

705
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:55,360
Speaker 2: but I think they were like one to five when

706
00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 2: they had to convert they couldn't anymore. That's kind of

707
00:32:57,560 --> 00:32:58,760
Speaker 2: what I'm counting on here.

708
00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 1: In the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win total over eight and

709
00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:06,040
Speaker 1: a half and it is very tight, and I've had

710
00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:07,960
Speaker 1: to deal with all sorts of injuries to the receiving

711
00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:11,240
Speaker 1: corps and the defense early and I'm almost there, but

712
00:33:11,280 --> 00:33:13,520
Speaker 1: they've got a tough one this week facing the Chargers

713
00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:16,280
Speaker 1: coming off at this pointing loss to my Chiefs. You've

714
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:20,520
Speaker 1: got to play on this game as well, and you like, as.

715
00:33:20,400 --> 00:33:22,800
Speaker 3: You kind of alluded to earlier, you like this Chargers team.

716
00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:25,000
Speaker 2: I kind of do like the Chargers team. They have

717
00:33:25,040 --> 00:33:26,640
Speaker 2: won me over here, and I've got a really good

718
00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:28,640
Speaker 2: stat I'll get to here. But give me the Chargers

719
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:31,440
Speaker 2: minus three against the Bucks now, I'll stay up front.

720
00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:34,040
Speaker 2: I think weight on this one. I think there's a

721
00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:35,880
Speaker 2: pretty good chance we might get a minus two and

722
00:33:35,920 --> 00:33:37,520
Speaker 2: a half, So I'm gonna wait and watch for that.

723
00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:40,000
Speaker 2: The minus three is at plus one hundred right now.

724
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:42,160
Speaker 2: That's usually a good sign that the line is slowly

725
00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:45,880
Speaker 2: moving down. Justin Herbert came out in news yesterday with

726
00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:47,959
Speaker 2: the ankle injury. I do want to keep an eye

727
00:33:48,000 --> 00:33:50,160
Speaker 2: on that, obviously. I want him looking good and healthy,

728
00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:52,880
Speaker 2: ready to go. He's certainly gonna play with an ankle injury.

729
00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:56,000
Speaker 2: But minus two and a half minus three I make

730
00:33:56,040 --> 00:33:58,360
Speaker 2: this more like minus six. And that's even with me

731
00:33:58,440 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 2: not even really giving the Chargers home field advantage, which frankly,

732
00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:02,600
Speaker 2: it's not likely the Bucks are going to bring a

733
00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:04,560
Speaker 2: lot of fans into La so I don't even think

734
00:34:04,600 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 2: that usual thing where it's like, oh, Pittsburgh fans are

735
00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:09,280
Speaker 2: Dallas fans, eh Bucks fans.

736
00:34:09,400 --> 00:34:09,719
Speaker 3: I don't know.

737
00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:12,360
Speaker 2: I'm gonna give them not too much there. The Bucks

738
00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:15,520
Speaker 2: I think are fading. Your Bucks play has been good,

739
00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:18,400
Speaker 2: but they've won three games in a row, so we

740
00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:20,759
Speaker 2: haven't really noticed their fate. That's happening because they won

741
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:24,399
Speaker 2: three against the Giants, the Panthers, and the Raiders. By

742
00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:27,040
Speaker 2: the numbers, the numbers underneath are not so good. They've

743
00:34:27,040 --> 00:34:30,600
Speaker 2: been by DVA fringe bottom ten team last six weeks,

744
00:34:30,640 --> 00:34:33,600
Speaker 2: more like league average offensively. That's down from what Liam

745
00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:37,480
Speaker 2: Cohen has been. Bottom ten defensively, bottom five pass defense.

746
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:41,319
Speaker 2: Antoine Winfield is out. Love my guy, Antoine Winfield. That's

747
00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:44,680
Speaker 2: a big loss for them. With Jordan Whitehead so both

748
00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:48,680
Speaker 2: backup safeties. Don't love that. Bucky Irving is banged up.

749
00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:50,759
Speaker 2: He only had to play like ten snaps last week.

750
00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:52,879
Speaker 2: He's been so good a running the ball for them.

751
00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:56,080
Speaker 2: Don't love that for the Bucks either. Charges offense has

752
00:34:56,120 --> 00:34:59,000
Speaker 2: been much better at home. Charges defense has been great

753
00:34:59,040 --> 00:35:01,480
Speaker 2: against wide receiver on I think that matches up well

754
00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:04,160
Speaker 2: against Mike Evans here. They're gonna miss Chris Godwin in

755
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:08,160
Speaker 2: this matchup. So I thought about Chargers first half here.

756
00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:10,640
Speaker 2: If this line somehow goes the other way, like to

757
00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:13,080
Speaker 2: minus three point three and a half, you want to

758
00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:14,920
Speaker 2: get under the key with the first half, don't mind it.

759
00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:17,920
Speaker 2: Chargers first half nine and four ATS Bucks are better

760
00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 2: than the second half. But I think I just take

761
00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:23,200
Speaker 2: the whole game. Baker against teams over five hundred thirty

762
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:26,760
Speaker 2: nine percent ATS for his career, here's the stat I mentioned.

763
00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:29,960
Speaker 2: Jim Harbaugh is sixty four percent ATS as a favorite

764
00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:32,279
Speaker 2: for his lifetime. That's a lot of games. That's pretty good.

765
00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 2: He's eight and one this year. Here's the one that

766
00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:37,480
Speaker 2: I did not see coming as a favorite of under

767
00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:40,359
Speaker 2: six points. Jim Harbor on his career is twenty five

768
00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:44,560
Speaker 2: and six ATS, eighty one percent cover rate by eight

769
00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:47,640
Speaker 2: points a game. That's not a small sample. That's a

770
00:35:47,680 --> 00:35:49,759
Speaker 2: lot of games. I'm just like, Yeah, we're not really

771
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:52,880
Speaker 2: too sure who should be the favorite. Probably the Chargers

772
00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:56,120
Speaker 2: coaching is really mattering here, and I think these teams

773
00:35:56,120 --> 00:35:58,040
Speaker 2: are just not really in the same weight class. So

774
00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:00,719
Speaker 2: I will take the Chargers minus three or Bucks.

775
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:04,080
Speaker 1: That's a really strong cap. That's a really good handicap.

776
00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:06,440
Speaker 1: That one is really good. I like that way better

777
00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:09,120
Speaker 1: than you trying to go up against Tomlin voodoo.

778
00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:12,200
Speaker 3: Okay, I knew that you would.

779
00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:15,719
Speaker 1: Be trying to do, not chasing, just that you would

780
00:36:15,719 --> 00:36:18,799
Speaker 1: be your same level of aggressive in make it up

781
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:20,839
Speaker 1: for last week, we got some escalators.

782
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:22,120
Speaker 3: Tell me about your first one.

783
00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, first one. We're going with Brian Robinson of the Commanders.

784
00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:27,400
Speaker 2: I was on Brian Robinson. I think it was it

785
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:29,360
Speaker 2: last year. He was a rookie, he got shot in

786
00:36:29,440 --> 00:36:32,720
Speaker 2: training camp, came back with a narrative, never really came around.

787
00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:36,280
Speaker 2: He's been quietly, really good and really important for Washington

788
00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:40,040
Speaker 2: this year. Washington with Robinson on the field, running backs

789
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:43,040
Speaker 2: are mattering this year with him healthy, seven and two,

790
00:36:43,239 --> 00:36:45,960
Speaker 2: with him out one in three, and when he's been

791
00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:49,840
Speaker 2: out it's Austin Eckler and Jeremy McNichols at three point

792
00:36:49,840 --> 00:36:52,520
Speaker 2: two yards of Kurry in those games. They can't run

793
00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:54,879
Speaker 2: the ball anymore, and they're not winning when they can't

794
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:58,200
Speaker 2: do that. When he plays, he's averaging kind of modest here,

795
00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:02,320
Speaker 2: but pretty good. Fifteen care he's seventy yards. Nothing's super awesome,

796
00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:05,440
Speaker 2: but he's scored a touchdown. Seven of those nine games.

797
00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:08,320
Speaker 2: He's had one hundred yard game three times on that stretch.

798
00:37:08,800 --> 00:37:11,239
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna play a little bit on touchdowns and

799
00:37:11,280 --> 00:37:17,000
Speaker 2: the yardage here give me first. Sorry. The Saints run

800
00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:19,680
Speaker 2: defense also as part of the cap, they've been terrible.

801
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:23,759
Speaker 2: They are thirty first by DIVVA on the season, especially

802
00:37:23,800 --> 00:37:27,800
Speaker 2: bad since Week six, bottom three yards per carry allowed

803
00:37:27,920 --> 00:37:31,120
Speaker 2: EPA per rush success rate. Commanders are top five that stretch.

804
00:37:31,120 --> 00:37:33,600
Speaker 2: So I like the matchup. I like Brandon Robinson. What

805
00:37:33,719 --> 00:37:38,279
Speaker 2: I don't like, weirdly, is I mentioned Austin Ekeler. He's out,

806
00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:41,120
Speaker 2: he's on ir Well, I should like that, right, more

807
00:37:41,160 --> 00:37:43,680
Speaker 2: touches for our guy. Yeah, but it's got priced in

808
00:37:44,280 --> 00:37:46,240
Speaker 2: the line. I want to just like a rushing yards

809
00:37:46,280 --> 00:37:48,719
Speaker 2: over here, but the line's like seventy six seventy nine

810
00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:51,520
Speaker 2: sort of range. It's been going up this week. I

811
00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:53,600
Speaker 2: don't want that. I don't want a median outcome for him.

812
00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:56,000
Speaker 2: It's kind of a high median. He's only gone over

813
00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:58,360
Speaker 2: that three times and he had one hundred yards all

814
00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:00,759
Speaker 2: three of those. Okay, so here are the play. I'll

815
00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:03,360
Speaker 2: play the one hundred yards at three to one. Saints

816
00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:05,440
Speaker 2: fall lot one hundred Dards rusher five times, so I

817
00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:08,720
Speaker 2: like that. But main play here is a touchdown minus

818
00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:12,040
Speaker 2: one twenty for the anytime touchdown. Nine out of thirteen

819
00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:14,520
Speaker 2: running back ones against the Saints have had a touchdown,

820
00:38:14,520 --> 00:38:16,799
Speaker 2: including eight of the last nine got into the end zone.

821
00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:20,919
Speaker 2: Five of them have two scores. So if you want

822
00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:23,160
Speaker 2: just the two scores, that's a plus four fifty. I'm

823
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:26,080
Speaker 2: gonna combine it with one hundred, so one hundred yards

824
00:38:26,160 --> 00:38:30,600
Speaker 2: rushing plus two touchdowns sixteen to one odds. So to recap,

825
00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:33,960
Speaker 2: here's the whole escalator. Touchdown is the main play minus

826
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:37,560
Speaker 2: one twenty one hundred yards rushing three to one, and

827
00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:40,839
Speaker 2: then one hundred plus two scores is sixteen to one.

828
00:38:41,120 --> 00:38:43,520
Speaker 2: For Brandon Robinson, that's aggressive.

829
00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:45,520
Speaker 1: You hit this one, you're gonna your mentions will be

830
00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:49,839
Speaker 1: Papa Champagne bottles. And then, finally, because you knew you'd

831
00:38:49,880 --> 00:38:51,759
Speaker 1: be doing the show with me at least for your

832
00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:54,160
Speaker 1: main best bets, you decided to go ahead and you

833
00:38:54,239 --> 00:38:56,160
Speaker 1: have a prop play for Chiefs Browns.

834
00:38:56,200 --> 00:38:58,960
Speaker 2: I see, you know I had to find a way

835
00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:01,840
Speaker 2: to fade your Chiefs bit. Give me the Jamis Winston

836
00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:04,480
Speaker 2: passing yards escalator, Like, let's just have a little fun.

837
00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:06,720
Speaker 2: Who does I want to bet on? Jameis Winston yolowing

838
00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:10,200
Speaker 2: the ball all over the field. I really wanted Browns

839
00:39:10,239 --> 00:39:13,920
Speaker 2: this week. I really wanted Browns against the Chiefs because

840
00:39:14,560 --> 00:39:16,880
Speaker 2: I think Jamis can light up the fading pass defense.

841
00:39:16,920 --> 00:39:20,000
Speaker 2: I think the pass rush could beat your terrible tackles

842
00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:22,680
Speaker 2: for the Chiefs. But I wanted a six or seven.

843
00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:25,520
Speaker 2: It's down. I don't hate it. I think the Browns

844
00:39:25,560 --> 00:39:27,719
Speaker 2: have a shot to win the game at home. I

845
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:32,240
Speaker 2: switched to the Jameis Winston passing escalator Chiefs bottom three

846
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:35,400
Speaker 2: passing DVA since Jalen Watson went out. I don't think

847
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:38,319
Speaker 2: it's just him, but it's been half a season now

848
00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:41,280
Speaker 2: and it's pretty clear bottom ten on the season against

849
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:44,520
Speaker 2: the deep ball. And you know, Jamis is chuck in here.

850
00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:48,360
Speaker 2: He's started six games now. He's thrown forty one times

851
00:39:48,440 --> 00:39:50,600
Speaker 2: or more all about one game. The only game he

852
00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:53,480
Speaker 2: didn't was the snow game against Pittsburgh when it was

853
00:39:53,520 --> 00:39:56,520
Speaker 2: snowing all game and he couldn't throw that much. Okay, well,

854
00:39:57,000 --> 00:39:59,720
Speaker 2: the weather looks bad here. I don't love that. Looks

855
00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:02,080
Speaker 2: like up to twenty nine hour wins, fifty to fifty

856
00:40:02,200 --> 00:40:06,400
Speaker 2: ray and low forties. So maybe we just like he

857
00:40:06,480 --> 00:40:08,319
Speaker 2: might throw like one hundred and eighty yards and a

858
00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:11,799
Speaker 2: couple interceptions, and it's ugly and gross. What what I

859
00:40:11,880 --> 00:40:14,600
Speaker 2: do like is that I initially had this bad a

860
00:40:14,640 --> 00:40:17,760
Speaker 2: couple of days ago. My numbers all got longer because

861
00:40:17,880 --> 00:40:19,279
Speaker 2: the weather is bad, so they had to make the

862
00:40:19,360 --> 00:40:22,120
Speaker 2: numbers look longer because his ods got shorter. So I

863
00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:24,840
Speaker 2: looked at attempts. Here thirty four and a half, So

864
00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:28,160
Speaker 2: thirty five passes he's gone again, way over that and

865
00:40:28,200 --> 00:40:30,919
Speaker 2: all but the one game. What do I like about

866
00:40:30,960 --> 00:40:32,759
Speaker 2: passing attempts? I don't want to root for pascing temmes.

867
00:40:32,800 --> 00:40:35,120
Speaker 2: If you're gonna throw it forty times and get his

868
00:40:35,200 --> 00:40:38,360
Speaker 2: like seven point three yards of play, that's three hundred yards.

869
00:40:38,360 --> 00:40:42,040
Speaker 2: That's the math. So Jameis Winston three hundred yards plus

870
00:40:42,120 --> 00:40:45,160
Speaker 2: four fifty. Our guy eight and O'Connell just lit up

871
00:40:45,160 --> 00:40:47,480
Speaker 2: the Chiefs for three forty on Black Friday. If eight

872
00:40:47,480 --> 00:40:50,840
Speaker 2: and O'Connell can go three forty, how about Jamis. Here's

873
00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:53,640
Speaker 2: his games this season, six starts. Three hundred and thirty

874
00:40:53,680 --> 00:40:56,760
Speaker 2: four against the Ravens, three to ninety five against the Saints,

875
00:40:57,080 --> 00:41:02,200
Speaker 2: four ninety seven against the Broncos good defunctmber so three

876
00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:05,360
Speaker 2: hundred yards plus four fifty. Three hundred and fifty yards

877
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:07,880
Speaker 2: is twelve to one. Three andre and seventy yards is

878
00:41:08,080 --> 00:41:11,279
Speaker 2: plus sixteen to fifty. We're taking the escalator all the

879
00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:13,800
Speaker 2: way up. It's probably not gonna go well and slop

880
00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:16,200
Speaker 2: the ugly weather. But if it is and Jamis is

881
00:41:16,280 --> 00:41:18,239
Speaker 2: just throwing all over the field, you will not have

882
00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:21,120
Speaker 2: more fun on a bet on NFL red Zone this Sunday. Well,

883
00:41:21,200 --> 00:41:23,560
Speaker 2: you you, Matt, you might have less fun on this one.

884
00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:26,640
Speaker 2: You listeners at home will have fun watching Jamis just

885
00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:28,840
Speaker 2: yollow it all over the field in this escalator.

886
00:41:29,680 --> 00:41:34,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, Chief's worst third worst EPA on dropbacks the last

887
00:41:34,600 --> 00:41:35,440
Speaker 1: six weeks.

888
00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:36,280
Speaker 3: Injury.

889
00:41:36,840 --> 00:41:38,960
Speaker 1: Turns out that when you let one of your best

890
00:41:38,960 --> 00:41:43,000
Speaker 1: corners go and then then your corner two gets hurt,

891
00:41:43,040 --> 00:41:45,840
Speaker 1: the things get bad real quick. I can't hate the

892
00:41:45,960 --> 00:41:48,000
Speaker 1: play at all. The only way that this I think

893
00:41:48,040 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 1: just loses is if Mahomes just has like two eight

894
00:41:51,160 --> 00:41:54,759
Speaker 1: minute drives in each hance. That's the only real way

895
00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:57,399
Speaker 1: that this goes sideways, which you know they're on the road,

896
00:41:57,440 --> 00:42:00,680
Speaker 1: sloppy weather, et cetera. I can't hate on at all

897
00:42:00,960 --> 00:42:03,520
Speaker 1: with any except in my heart, I can hate it.

898
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:06,840
Speaker 3: All right, Let's let's hear I hear the thunder.

899
00:42:07,080 --> 00:42:11,240
Speaker 1: Let's get some lightning bets thunder, see the thunder.

900
00:42:11,120 --> 00:42:13,520
Speaker 3: Lightning round thunder.

901
00:42:14,560 --> 00:42:16,440
Speaker 2: All right, this is the hold your nose part of

902
00:42:16,480 --> 00:42:18,879
Speaker 2: the podcast. I've put these together because I don't even

903
00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:22,680
Speaker 2: really have the strongest cases here. They're just disgusting in

904
00:42:22,760 --> 00:42:25,120
Speaker 2: their bets that I think the number is wrong on

905
00:42:25,320 --> 00:42:27,560
Speaker 2: that I have to play the numbers. So let's start here.

906
00:42:28,120 --> 00:42:31,080
Speaker 2: The only game on the schedule this weekend, no bye

907
00:42:31,080 --> 00:42:35,120
Speaker 2: a week sixteen games, I'm going to Jets Jaguars. Give

908
00:42:35,160 --> 00:42:38,920
Speaker 2: me the New York Football Jets minus three in Jacksonville,

909
00:42:38,960 --> 00:42:41,799
Speaker 2: the only game on the entire schedule with two teams

910
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:43,640
Speaker 2: already eliminated. Doesn't mean I gotta watch it. We can

911
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:48,480
Speaker 2: still make some money. Jacksonville sucks. They're dead last defensively

912
00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:52,360
Speaker 2: in the NFL, and right now their offense might be

913
00:42:52,480 --> 00:42:54,640
Speaker 2: just as bad. We bet against them last week with

914
00:42:54,840 --> 00:42:59,839
Speaker 2: Mac Jones. Here's how games have gone six points full game, Jacksonville,

915
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:03,520
Speaker 2: seven points the next game. Then they scored six plus

916
00:43:03,520 --> 00:43:05,440
Speaker 2: two garbage time touchdowns at the end of the game.

917
00:43:05,480 --> 00:43:08,120
Speaker 2: In the blowout. Then they scored ten in a win.

918
00:43:08,239 --> 00:43:10,480
Speaker 2: Last week they still had ten. They still hit our

919
00:43:10,600 --> 00:43:13,160
Speaker 2: mine shaft. By the way, Matt, the people are loving

920
00:43:13,160 --> 00:43:15,600
Speaker 2: the mine shafts. You coin that the last time you're

921
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:19,120
Speaker 2: on here. Outside of those two garbage touchdowns, here's the

922
00:43:19,160 --> 00:43:23,600
Speaker 2: mac Jones Jaguars offense thirty six drives in four games

923
00:43:23,960 --> 00:43:27,279
Speaker 2: for twenty nine points. I don't know what the right

924
00:43:27,360 --> 00:43:30,520
Speaker 2: number is for points per drive, but less than one

925
00:43:30,719 --> 00:43:33,879
Speaker 2: is not the answer. So I looked at Jacksonville's under

926
00:43:33,960 --> 00:43:36,680
Speaker 2: their team total. Bulook, if they score six or seven

927
00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:39,320
Speaker 2: or ten, the Jets are going to cover the minus

928
00:43:39,320 --> 00:43:44,080
Speaker 2: three here Mac Jones six and sixteen ATS as an

929
00:43:44,160 --> 00:43:48,040
Speaker 2: underdog twenty seven percent. Don't be intimidated if it does

930
00:43:48,080 --> 00:43:50,640
Speaker 2: get to minus three and a half non Division three

931
00:43:50,640 --> 00:43:53,400
Speaker 2: and a half point road favorites fifty seven percent ATS.

932
00:43:53,600 --> 00:43:55,720
Speaker 2: I think that's ay scare you away sort of tactic.

933
00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:59,040
Speaker 2: I'm not scared away, Matt. I'm taking the Jets minus

934
00:43:59,080 --> 00:44:01,400
Speaker 2: three in Jacksonville.

935
00:44:01,600 --> 00:44:01,799
Speaker 3: Yeah.

936
00:44:01,840 --> 00:44:04,160
Speaker 1: Anytime that you can take one three to ten team

937
00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:07,279
Speaker 1: versus another on the road, you gotta do it. H

938
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:13,520
Speaker 1: Jets last six weeks are thirty second in dropback EPA defense.

939
00:44:14,040 --> 00:44:17,280
Speaker 3: However, it's it's Mac, it's Mac Jones.

940
00:44:17,320 --> 00:44:18,759
Speaker 2: It's Mac Jones, who they know pretty well.

941
00:44:18,760 --> 00:44:21,799
Speaker 1: By the way, they do know Mac Jones pretty well.

942
00:44:21,880 --> 00:44:22,480
Speaker 3: That's a good point.

943
00:44:22,480 --> 00:44:26,359
Speaker 1: That's another great point on this, that the Jets were

944
00:44:26,360 --> 00:44:29,000
Speaker 1: actually I think I think no, it was a Bills,

945
00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:31,360
Speaker 1: but yeah, they definitely aren't familiar with Mac Jones. The

946
00:44:31,400 --> 00:44:33,560
Speaker 1: Mac Jones show, as it were, fired me off another

947
00:44:33,680 --> 00:44:34,160
Speaker 1: lightning bets.

948
00:44:34,920 --> 00:44:38,560
Speaker 2: All right, speaking of tasty games, let's go Cowboys Panthers.

949
00:44:39,080 --> 00:44:43,879
Speaker 2: Oh p the Dallas Cowboys plus three Jets Cowboys? How

950
00:44:43,880 --> 00:44:45,880
Speaker 2: can you get any better than that? On an NFL

951
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:49,800
Speaker 2: betting Sunday. The Panthers are really a three point favorite.

952
00:44:49,960 --> 00:44:54,040
Speaker 2: We're making Bryce Young a three point favorite in the NFL.

953
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:58,600
Speaker 2: Caroline has not been favored since twenty twenty two. The

954
00:44:58,680 --> 00:45:02,520
Speaker 2: Panthers have covered five straight spreads. They hung with your

955
00:45:02,600 --> 00:45:05,120
Speaker 2: Chiefs and the Bucks and the Eagles. They really should

956
00:45:05,120 --> 00:45:07,839
Speaker 2: have won at least one of those games. Probably That

957
00:45:07,920 --> 00:45:10,480
Speaker 2: means I think this is top of the market. Chuba

958
00:45:10,520 --> 00:45:12,400
Speaker 2: can run on Dallas. I think we goo Dalla. We

959
00:45:12,480 --> 00:45:14,799
Speaker 2: can run. Also, Panthers have the worst run defense in

960
00:45:14,840 --> 00:45:18,239
Speaker 2: the league, even worse than Dallas's Dallas has been better

961
00:45:18,280 --> 00:45:20,960
Speaker 2: on the road this season. They just hung with a

962
00:45:21,000 --> 00:45:24,680
Speaker 2: pretty quality Cincinnati team, at least offensive lest Cincinnati team

963
00:45:25,080 --> 00:45:27,560
Speaker 2: all the way toward the end of the game. Why

964
00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:31,080
Speaker 2: because Dallas's defense is the best union on the field here,

965
00:45:31,320 --> 00:45:34,400
Speaker 2: unless special teams count, in which case Dallas's special teams

966
00:45:34,440 --> 00:45:36,520
Speaker 2: is by far the best union in the field. Big

967
00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:41,480
Speaker 2: advantage there too. Carolina has covered a three point spread

968
00:45:41,920 --> 00:45:46,360
Speaker 2: one time the last two seasons once in the thirty games.

969
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:49,600
Speaker 2: I can't, I can't do it. It was Dallas minus

970
00:45:49,600 --> 00:45:53,319
Speaker 2: one on Sunday morning. It's now Carolina minus three. We're

971
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:55,960
Speaker 2: doing that. We're moving at four points because we decided

972
00:45:55,960 --> 00:45:56,799
Speaker 2: Bryce Young is good.

973
00:45:56,840 --> 00:45:56,960
Speaker 3: Now.

974
00:45:56,960 --> 00:45:58,479
Speaker 2: It might even get to minus three and a half.

975
00:45:58,520 --> 00:46:02,640
Speaker 2: The way it's looking right now. On principle, got Dallas

976
00:46:02,640 --> 00:46:05,920
Speaker 2: Cowboys plus three. I just have to do it. I

977
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:09,359
Speaker 2: have the Cowboys minus two here. This is a terrible game.

978
00:46:09,440 --> 00:46:11,080
Speaker 2: I don't want it on my screen. I just want

979
00:46:11,120 --> 00:46:12,000
Speaker 2: to win some money on it.

980
00:46:12,719 --> 00:46:14,880
Speaker 1: I love this too because it does fit in with

981
00:46:14,920 --> 00:46:16,600
Speaker 1: a trend that the favorites talk about, which is when

982
00:46:16,600 --> 00:46:18,560
Speaker 1: a team starts as a dog and moves a favorite

983
00:46:18,640 --> 00:46:21,239
Speaker 1: fading that squad like there's a market overreaction when you

984
00:46:21,280 --> 00:46:23,560
Speaker 1: cross zero, and I think that that's like a pretty

985
00:46:23,600 --> 00:46:27,280
Speaker 1: important one. This is a major move across zero. So yeah,

986
00:46:27,280 --> 00:46:30,080
Speaker 1: that's disgusting. But surely, surely that's the grossest play that

987
00:46:30,120 --> 00:46:32,560
Speaker 1: you have on the board. You can't possibly be trying

988
00:46:32,560 --> 00:46:36,920
Speaker 1: to talk me into something grosser than Cowboys plus three? Right?

989
00:46:37,360 --> 00:46:39,719
Speaker 2: I am? I am, And it is the grossest play

990
00:46:39,760 --> 00:46:43,480
Speaker 2: of the week. Are you ready for Giants? Money line

991
00:46:43,640 --> 00:46:47,240
Speaker 2: plus nine to eighty home against the Baltimore Ravens.

992
00:46:47,239 --> 00:46:51,040
Speaker 1: Look just a sprinkle. I'm gonna throw up on this podcast.

993
00:46:51,080 --> 00:46:53,239
Speaker 1: I am going to actually throw up on this play.

994
00:46:53,239 --> 00:46:56,840
Speaker 2: Go ahead, y, that's Cowboys Giants. Let's go big, big

995
00:46:56,920 --> 00:47:00,239
Speaker 2: week for the fans in our country. It's an auto

996
00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:01,960
Speaker 2: bet for me at plus nine eighty. It is a

997
00:47:02,080 --> 00:47:04,120
Speaker 2: numbers play. If you're looking for an on field case,

998
00:47:04,200 --> 00:47:07,280
Speaker 2: I don't have one. The Giants are terrible. They should

999
00:47:07,360 --> 00:47:10,640
Speaker 2: actively want to lose. Tommy DeVito is back. The Ravens

1000
00:47:10,680 --> 00:47:13,840
Speaker 2: are off of bye week. I literally recommended a Ravens

1001
00:47:13,840 --> 00:47:17,440
Speaker 2: super Bowl odds in an article this week. What's the case?

1002
00:47:17,960 --> 00:47:20,439
Speaker 2: Lamar one and five ats off of bye week? He's

1003
00:47:20,480 --> 00:47:22,319
Speaker 2: not good as a big favorite, so it's a little

1004
00:47:22,320 --> 00:47:25,280
Speaker 2: bit closer. Maybe I make this line more like twelve

1005
00:47:25,280 --> 00:47:28,640
Speaker 2: and a half not sixteen, so maybe we're single digits now.

1006
00:47:28,920 --> 00:47:31,680
Speaker 2: Brian Gable's been good as a big underdog in his career.

1007
00:47:32,080 --> 00:47:37,400
Speaker 2: Baltimore already lost this season to the Browns and the Raiders.

1008
00:47:37,680 --> 00:47:40,720
Speaker 2: Why can't they lose to the Giants? Here's the numbers?

1009
00:47:40,760 --> 00:47:44,000
Speaker 2: Why have to play this number this season? Money lining

1010
00:47:44,080 --> 00:47:46,600
Speaker 2: underdogs of twenty seven or two hundred and seventy five

1011
00:47:46,680 --> 00:47:49,600
Speaker 2: or longer ten and twenty four straight up twenty three

1012
00:47:49,640 --> 00:47:53,400
Speaker 2: percent ROI on the money line, but since twenty eighteen,

1013
00:47:54,000 --> 00:47:58,120
Speaker 2: if you just blind bet anytime an underdog is gross

1014
00:47:58,239 --> 00:48:01,040
Speaker 2: like this, from plus seven fifth a plus one thousand,

1015
00:48:01,160 --> 00:48:04,280
Speaker 2: anyone in that range, just bet it. They're four and fifteen.

1016
00:48:04,400 --> 00:48:07,160
Speaker 2: That's not great, but the number is so long that

1017
00:48:07,360 --> 00:48:11,960
Speaker 2: is a ninety six percent ROI. You are doubling your

1018
00:48:12,160 --> 00:48:15,280
Speaker 2: ro you're trippling your money. But it's gonna be ugly.

1019
00:48:15,960 --> 00:48:19,120
Speaker 2: The teams are minus thirteen on margin and victory on

1020
00:48:19,160 --> 00:48:22,279
Speaker 2: that even though they've won four times, So probably you're

1021
00:48:22,280 --> 00:48:24,520
Speaker 2: gonna bet this and they't want to murder me when

1022
00:48:24,560 --> 00:48:26,040
Speaker 2: they're behind twenty one nothing at the end, of the

1023
00:48:26,080 --> 00:48:28,759
Speaker 2: first quarter. That's the most likely outcome by far here,

1024
00:48:29,719 --> 00:48:32,480
Speaker 2: but is the Ravens. And who doesn't want to believe

1025
00:48:32,520 --> 00:48:36,040
Speaker 2: that the Ravens might choke away another one to the Giants,

1026
00:48:36,480 --> 00:48:40,279
Speaker 2: Tommy DeVito coming back to heroically screw over their draft pick.

1027
00:48:40,640 --> 00:48:44,360
Speaker 2: What a story. Giants plus nine eighty on the money line.

1028
00:48:44,920 --> 00:48:49,000
Speaker 1: Okay, so these six dogs that have won when they

1029
00:48:49,000 --> 00:48:53,400
Speaker 1: were fifteen point dogs or more going back to nineteen

1030
00:48:53,480 --> 00:48:57,720
Speaker 1: ninety two have won by an average Brandon of seven

1031
00:48:57,760 --> 00:48:59,240
Speaker 1: point three points per game.

1032
00:49:00,280 --> 00:49:01,000
Speaker 3: Raizy one.

1033
00:49:01,560 --> 00:49:05,120
Speaker 1: Why don't we do an alt line on the New

1034
00:49:05,200 --> 00:49:07,040
Speaker 1: York Football Giants.

1035
00:49:07,160 --> 00:49:10,040
Speaker 2: All Giants minus six and a half? Say no more,

1036
00:49:10,120 --> 00:49:12,200
Speaker 2: I'm in. We'll look up the number and put it

1037
00:49:12,200 --> 00:49:13,879
Speaker 2: into the app for like a tenth of a unit.

1038
00:49:14,440 --> 00:49:14,759
Speaker 3: All right.

1039
00:49:14,760 --> 00:49:16,520
Speaker 1: You did mention earlier that you do have a have

1040
00:49:16,600 --> 00:49:19,919
Speaker 1: a bet on Bill's Lions, the big matchup, not going

1041
00:49:19,920 --> 00:49:21,759
Speaker 1: with a side, but she liked the total. Tell me

1042
00:49:21,800 --> 00:49:22,160
Speaker 1: what you like?

1043
00:49:22,840 --> 00:49:25,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I included in this section because I'm taking the

1044
00:49:25,600 --> 00:49:27,959
Speaker 2: under here, and I think you got to really hold

1045
00:49:27,960 --> 00:49:29,640
Speaker 2: your nose to take an under because the one thing

1046
00:49:29,680 --> 00:49:32,080
Speaker 2: we know about this game is we're getting points. It

1047
00:49:32,160 --> 00:49:34,080
Speaker 2: got bet up from fifty and a half to fifty

1048
00:49:34,120 --> 00:49:37,000
Speaker 2: four and a half was fifty five a couple days ago. Obviously,

1049
00:49:37,040 --> 00:49:39,759
Speaker 2: get the best number you can fifty one, fifty four

1050
00:49:39,800 --> 00:49:42,640
Speaker 2: or slight key numbers up in that high range. Look

1051
00:49:42,680 --> 00:49:46,000
Speaker 2: the Lions, we talked about them extra rest. Bill's defense

1052
00:49:46,080 --> 00:49:48,919
Speaker 2: is exhausted after playing the Rams. They look terrible last week.

1053
00:49:48,920 --> 00:49:50,879
Speaker 2: Although to be honest, I think the Rams just looked

1054
00:49:50,880 --> 00:49:53,880
Speaker 2: really good. I think that Bill's defense is fine. We

1055
00:49:53,920 --> 00:49:57,480
Speaker 2: know about the gop indoor stat. I make the Lions

1056
00:49:57,520 --> 00:49:59,279
Speaker 2: actually minus four and a half here, So I think

1057
00:49:59,280 --> 00:50:02,040
Speaker 2: if I had to play side, I would lean Detroit.

1058
00:50:02,400 --> 00:50:05,440
Speaker 2: But I don't trust Goff in this game, and I

1059
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:09,640
Speaker 2: don't trust all those defensive injuries for Detroit, all of

1060
00:50:09,680 --> 00:50:11,640
Speaker 2: which sounds a lot like a case for the over.

1061
00:50:11,680 --> 00:50:13,920
Speaker 2: If Buffalo is giving up forty four to the Rams

1062
00:50:14,160 --> 00:50:16,480
Speaker 2: and the Lions have all these injuries, it's got to

1063
00:50:16,520 --> 00:50:19,319
Speaker 2: be over. That's why everyone's bettingly over. And I look

1064
00:50:19,360 --> 00:50:22,560
Speaker 2: on bet Labs, tried and true bet labs, and I

1065
00:50:22,680 --> 00:50:25,080
Speaker 2: just got like a flurry of under trends. So here

1066
00:50:25,080 --> 00:50:27,439
Speaker 2: are the under trends and why I'm doing it. Dan

1067
00:50:27,560 --> 00:50:30,400
Speaker 2: Campbell total fifty one or higher ten and six to

1068
00:50:30,440 --> 00:50:33,840
Speaker 2: the under. Jared Goff fifty one or higher nineteen eleven

1069
00:50:33,880 --> 00:50:37,319
Speaker 2: to the under. Best active quarterback Sean McDermott rode under

1070
00:50:37,360 --> 00:50:39,600
Speaker 2: sixty one percent better than Mike Tomlin, one of the

1071
00:50:39,640 --> 00:50:42,440
Speaker 2: guys that we play on this a lot. Since twenty seventeen,

1072
00:50:42,560 --> 00:50:45,560
Speaker 2: total fifty three or higher when the line rose sixty

1073
00:50:45,560 --> 00:50:48,440
Speaker 2: percent to the under. Since twenty twenty one, fifty four

1074
00:50:48,480 --> 00:50:51,600
Speaker 2: are higher total to the under sixty nine percent by

1075
00:50:51,640 --> 00:50:55,120
Speaker 2: almost a touchdown there, including six and one to the

1076
00:50:55,200 --> 00:50:59,080
Speaker 2: under by fourteen points a game when almost half of

1077
00:50:59,120 --> 00:51:02,560
Speaker 2: the money is on the over. Right now, I'm seeing

1078
00:51:02,600 --> 00:51:05,560
Speaker 2: the over at seventy three percent of the money. I'm

1079
00:51:05,600 --> 00:51:08,760
Speaker 2: fading the public. I'm fading the money here. I'm holding

1080
00:51:08,800 --> 00:51:10,960
Speaker 2: my nose and taking the under fifty four and a half.

1081
00:51:11,200 --> 00:51:13,000
Speaker 2: Did you hear my case for why the defense are

1082
00:51:13,000 --> 00:51:15,439
Speaker 2: gonna stop them? No, because I don't have one, neither

1083
00:51:15,520 --> 00:51:18,680
Speaker 2: is anyone else. I'm just fading the public on this

1084
00:51:18,840 --> 00:51:21,040
Speaker 2: and playing all the trends, and that's why it's in

1085
00:51:21,040 --> 00:51:23,680
Speaker 2: my ugly section. But I do have a couple more

1086
00:51:23,719 --> 00:51:25,560
Speaker 2: long shots on this one, and we'll get to the

1087
00:51:25,600 --> 00:51:29,680
Speaker 2: look ahead. Lion's first half eleven and two ats, Bill

1088
00:51:29,840 --> 00:51:33,120
Speaker 2: second half eleven and two ats. That's been a Josh

1089
00:51:33,120 --> 00:51:36,759
Speaker 2: Allen thing for his career sixty six percent ATS second half.

1090
00:51:36,840 --> 00:51:39,720
Speaker 2: God Josh Allen has an underdog in his career, Josh

1091
00:51:39,719 --> 00:51:42,920
Speaker 2: Allen fourteen and seventeen straight up, thirty one percent ROI

1092
00:51:43,040 --> 00:51:46,719
Speaker 2: so play the script at the long number deturn halftime.

1093
00:51:47,280 --> 00:51:50,799
Speaker 2: Bill's full time plus six seventy five. Just a little

1094
00:51:50,880 --> 00:51:54,120
Speaker 2: nibble at that, and if the Bills win, I've got

1095
00:51:54,160 --> 00:51:58,640
Speaker 2: a parley for you here. Bill's win dramatically increases their

1096
00:51:58,719 --> 00:52:02,000
Speaker 2: chance at the one seat we mentioned earlier. They play Patriots, Jeff, Patriots,

1097
00:52:02,040 --> 00:52:03,560
Speaker 2: They're gonna win out the rest of the way. This

1098
00:52:03,640 --> 00:52:06,600
Speaker 2: is the last hurdle for them to get there. If

1099
00:52:06,600 --> 00:52:10,040
Speaker 2: they win, they're only one game effectively behind the Chiefs

1100
00:52:10,080 --> 00:52:13,279
Speaker 2: since they have the type break. In the meantime, the

1101
00:52:13,360 --> 00:52:16,560
Speaker 2: NFC one seed race switches because the Lions take the loss,

1102
00:52:16,840 --> 00:52:20,360
Speaker 2: so both one seed races are on the line here. However,

1103
00:52:21,000 --> 00:52:23,359
Speaker 2: books are not pricing that way. The Bills are four

1104
00:52:23,400 --> 00:52:25,600
Speaker 2: to one to be the one seed. The Eagles are

1105
00:52:25,600 --> 00:52:28,120
Speaker 2: plus three eighty to be the one seed. If the

1106
00:52:28,160 --> 00:52:31,600
Speaker 2: Bills win this game, both of those teams are effectively

1107
00:52:31,680 --> 00:52:34,640
Speaker 2: one game away from being the one seed. That is

1108
00:52:34,760 --> 00:52:38,600
Speaker 2: heavily correlated. But we're getting a twenty three to one price.

1109
00:52:39,080 --> 00:52:41,879
Speaker 2: That's the price you get if you just parlay four

1110
00:52:41,880 --> 00:52:45,080
Speaker 2: to one and plus three eighty without having any correlation.

1111
00:52:45,560 --> 00:52:48,680
Speaker 2: This is heavily correlated. Even if you don't like the Bills,

1112
00:52:48,719 --> 00:52:50,719
Speaker 2: you have to play this number twenty three to one

1113
00:52:51,040 --> 00:52:54,520
Speaker 2: on a Bill's Eagles one seed parlay because the books

1114
00:52:54,520 --> 00:52:56,560
Speaker 2: should not be laying it. So we're taking out.

1115
00:52:56,760 --> 00:52:59,279
Speaker 3: Can ask you some do you know? You probably don't

1116
00:52:59,280 --> 00:52:59,440
Speaker 3: know this.

1117
00:52:59,560 --> 00:53:00,920
Speaker 1: I would be I should to know who we win

1118
00:53:00,960 --> 00:53:06,680
Speaker 1: the tiebreaker between the Chiefs, the Steelers, and the Bills.

1119
00:53:06,920 --> 00:53:07,800
Speaker 3: I would be very interested.

1120
00:53:08,800 --> 00:53:11,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, but it's a three way if the Steelers where

1121
00:53:11,880 --> 00:53:13,640
Speaker 1: to beat Kansas City, which is happy part of this.

1122
00:53:14,040 --> 00:53:15,440
Speaker 2: I don't know the answer to that. It is a

1123
00:53:15,440 --> 00:53:16,000
Speaker 2: good question.

1124
00:53:16,080 --> 00:53:17,640
Speaker 1: I looked it up and couldn't figure out because it's

1125
00:53:17,640 --> 00:53:19,360
Speaker 1: common opponents and I don't have the ability to do

1126
00:53:19,400 --> 00:53:21,439
Speaker 1: that math off my head. But I am I would

1127
00:53:21,440 --> 00:53:23,360
Speaker 1: just tell you I'm very interested in a Steeler sneak

1128
00:53:23,360 --> 00:53:25,920
Speaker 1: out the one seed, especially if we put that with

1129
00:53:25,960 --> 00:53:26,400
Speaker 1: the Eagles.

1130
00:53:26,440 --> 00:53:28,200
Speaker 3: I want. I'm taking yours and going even longer.

1131
00:53:28,200 --> 00:53:30,840
Speaker 1: I mean around you too long and started going to

1132
00:53:30,920 --> 00:53:33,240
Speaker 1: all these aggressive plays.

1133
00:53:33,239 --> 00:53:34,200
Speaker 3: All right, it's.

1134
00:53:34,040 --> 00:53:37,839
Speaker 1: Time for maybe maybe maybe I'll call it.

1135
00:53:37,960 --> 00:53:38,560
Speaker 3: I'll say it.

1136
00:53:38,880 --> 00:53:43,520
Speaker 1: This might be the best bet in all of sports wagertainment,

1137
00:53:43,560 --> 00:53:45,799
Speaker 1: as my friend Nick costUS likes to say, in all

1138
00:53:45,840 --> 00:53:50,240
Speaker 1: of betting content. I genuinely think that the look ahead

1139
00:53:50,320 --> 00:53:53,640
Speaker 1: might be it. Brandon, what's the look ahead for week sixteen?

1140
00:53:55,360 --> 00:53:56,160
Speaker 3: Let's talk ahead.

1141
00:53:56,400 --> 00:53:57,120
Speaker 2: Just give it a shot.

1142
00:53:57,200 --> 00:53:58,440
Speaker 3: How about next week?

1143
00:53:58,920 --> 00:54:06,160
Speaker 4: Back out my mind, got my mindset.

1144
00:54:05,160 --> 00:54:07,400
Speaker 2: Week sixteen look ahead. We're going back to the Eagles.

1145
00:54:07,400 --> 00:54:09,479
Speaker 2: We took them earlier. We're taking them next week as well.

1146
00:54:09,560 --> 00:54:12,759
Speaker 2: Eagles minus two and a half at the Commanders. So

1147
00:54:12,840 --> 00:54:14,560
Speaker 2: we always want to get ahead of the line of value.

1148
00:54:14,640 --> 00:54:16,920
Speaker 2: I like Philly and Pittsburgh. You heard the case for that.

1149
00:54:17,440 --> 00:54:19,800
Speaker 2: I didn't really make a case for Washington New Orleans.

1150
00:54:19,880 --> 00:54:23,640
Speaker 2: I did have Washington hot red on a teaser. I

1151
00:54:23,640 --> 00:54:25,399
Speaker 2: think that line's a little high, to be honest, it's

1152
00:54:25,400 --> 00:54:27,240
Speaker 2: minus seven seven and a half. I make it closer

1153
00:54:27,239 --> 00:54:30,280
Speaker 2: to minus four even with Derek carrout. That would imply

1154
00:54:30,440 --> 00:54:33,520
Speaker 2: potentially sort of an ugly result for Washington. I think

1155
00:54:33,520 --> 00:54:35,520
Speaker 2: they win, but it could be a close, ugly one.

1156
00:54:35,760 --> 00:54:38,439
Speaker 2: Then you get the matchup here. Eagles have won six

1157
00:54:38,480 --> 00:54:41,160
Speaker 2: out the last seven against Washington, twelve of the last fifteen,

1158
00:54:41,600 --> 00:54:44,320
Speaker 2: seven of those wins by double digits. They just played

1159
00:54:44,360 --> 00:54:47,200
Speaker 2: a month ago, So what happened twenty six to ten?

1160
00:54:47,680 --> 00:54:51,200
Speaker 2: Eagles tell a garbage touchdown with thirty seconds left, dominant

1161
00:54:51,200 --> 00:54:53,880
Speaker 2: performance four un thirty four yards and two hundred and

1162
00:54:53,880 --> 00:54:56,799
Speaker 2: sixty four for Philadelphia two yards of play more per

1163
00:54:56,840 --> 00:54:59,440
Speaker 2: play saque out of huge game. Cherry McLaurin had a

1164
00:54:59,440 --> 00:55:01,120
Speaker 2: one catch for ten yards with a lot to talk

1165
00:55:01,120 --> 00:55:03,840
Speaker 2: about Phillies young corners in that game. I like the

1166
00:55:03,840 --> 00:55:06,439
Speaker 2: matchup a lot. Washington's defense is by far the weak link,

1167
00:55:06,920 --> 00:55:08,719
Speaker 2: and I think at minus two and a half we're

1168
00:55:08,719 --> 00:55:11,000
Speaker 2: gonna push to three and beyond. We're already at three

1169
00:55:11,000 --> 00:55:13,440
Speaker 2: at one book, so I make it closer to four

1170
00:55:13,440 --> 00:55:15,839
Speaker 2: and a half or five for Philadelphia even on the road.

1171
00:55:15,880 --> 00:55:19,880
Speaker 2: Here mentioned before hurts against teams over five hundred Jalen

1172
00:55:19,920 --> 00:55:23,440
Speaker 2: Hurts is sixty seven percent, ats some other good trends

1173
00:55:23,520 --> 00:55:25,799
Speaker 2: late division. I want to blow the key number. They

1174
00:55:25,800 --> 00:55:27,920
Speaker 2: shouldn't be giving it to us, so grab it while

1175
00:55:27,960 --> 00:55:30,400
Speaker 2: it's their Eagles minus two and a half at Commanders

1176
00:55:30,440 --> 00:55:31,040
Speaker 2: for next week.

1177
00:55:31,560 --> 00:55:34,280
Speaker 1: So you've got you get Eagles on this podcast twice.

1178
00:55:34,320 --> 00:55:36,320
Speaker 3: You like them this week and you like them next week?

1179
00:55:36,440 --> 00:55:37,399
Speaker 2: Yes, I do.

1180
00:55:37,800 --> 00:55:39,400
Speaker 1: Okay, I'm just kind of curious because I think you

1181
00:55:39,400 --> 00:55:41,239
Speaker 1: can probably get parlay in on that two on the

1182
00:55:41,239 --> 00:55:43,560
Speaker 1: money line. If somebody were you won't.

1183
00:55:43,360 --> 00:55:44,120
Speaker 2: Be able to play.

1184
00:55:44,280 --> 00:55:44,360
Speaker 1: You.

1185
00:55:44,600 --> 00:55:46,960
Speaker 2: Books usually won't allow you to play the two weeks

1186
00:55:46,960 --> 00:55:49,720
Speaker 2: of the same team together like the algorithm will reject

1187
00:55:49,719 --> 00:55:52,520
Speaker 2: it in most places. But you can try check your low.

1188
00:55:52,960 --> 00:55:55,480
Speaker 1: There's your Eagles play for next week on the look

1189
00:55:55,520 --> 00:55:57,160
Speaker 1: Ahead that Brandon Anderson you if find in The Action

1190
00:55:57,200 --> 00:55:58,440
Speaker 1: Network AP and on.

1191
00:55:58,400 --> 00:55:59,840
Speaker 3: Twitter at Wheaton Brando.

1192
00:56:00,120 --> 00:56:02,960
Speaker 1: My thanks to Brandon for all of his best bets

1193
00:56:03,000 --> 00:56:04,759
Speaker 1: and the great betting advice that he provides to us

1194
00:56:04,800 --> 00:56:07,320
Speaker 1: every single week. Evan Abrams and the crew will be

1195
00:56:07,400 --> 00:56:10,320
Speaker 1: back with you on Sunday night alongside Brandon by thanks

1196
00:56:10,320 --> 00:56:12,480
Speaker 1: to David Payne, our producer.

1197
00:56:11,960 --> 00:56:14,359
Speaker 3: And the video crew with Brodie Rabino putting this up.

1198
00:56:14,320 --> 00:56:17,680
Speaker 1: At YouTube dot com, slash the Action Network. If you

1199
00:56:17,760 --> 00:56:19,560
Speaker 1: want to catch more for me, catch me over up

1200
00:56:19,560 --> 00:56:22,920
Speaker 1: Buckets our NBA betting podcast. Have a great betting weekend.

1201
00:56:22,960 --> 00:56:23,920
Speaker 1: We'll see you guys again.

1202
00:56:23,719 --> 00:56:39,920
Speaker 4: Next time on the Action Network podcast.

1203
00:56:41,320 --> 00:56:45,840
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1204
00:56:45,880 --> 00:56:48,680
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1205
00:56:48,680 --> 00:56:51,840
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler