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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene. Daily

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Speaker 1: we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. Right now,

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Speaker 1: Greg Vlli joins us with a f G O. Note

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Speaker 1: that everybody in Washington reads each and every morning, and Greg,

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Speaker 1: I do want to talk about something we've really avoided

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Speaker 1: this morning is John Farrell mentions we get right to

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Speaker 1: work and part of that work is impeachment. What will

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Speaker 1: we see this Wednesday and Thursday on impeachment? Yeah, Hi, Tom,

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Speaker 1: good morning. Everybody talks about unity, and I know it's

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Speaker 1: going to be a big fame for Joe Biden, but

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Speaker 1: we have a decent trial coming up that I think

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Speaker 1: will be better at think it will drag on for

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Speaker 1: two or three weeks. I think they probably will fail.

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Speaker 1: I think it could make uh Donald Trump look like

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Speaker 1: a martyr. I think it will complicate Joe Biden's agenda.

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Speaker 1: So right away after talking about unity, week of that,

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Speaker 1: and I would just also add to the Janet yell

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Speaker 1: and hearing yesterday was not that unified. The Republicans pushed

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Speaker 1: back hard on new spending. Yeah, well, that's exactly where

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Speaker 1: I wanted to go, this idea that we talk about unity,

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Speaker 1: and yet we have these divisions that are getting just deeper.

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Speaker 1: Do you feel momentum behind this one point nine trillion

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Speaker 1: dollar plan or do you think this is going to

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Speaker 1: drag out for months, far longer than the market is

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Speaker 1: pricing in. I think there's momentum behind a plan. I'm

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Speaker 1: not sure if this plan that has a lot of

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Speaker 1: money for state and local governments, minimum wage. I think

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Speaker 1: we'll get something, but I don't think it will be

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Speaker 1: one point nine trillion. I think we could get a

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Speaker 1: deal by the end of February, but the Republicans really

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Speaker 1: showed their hand yesterday that they don't want anything that's expensive.

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Speaker 1: One point nine audience, the number, What do you think

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Speaker 1: it comes down to? Greg, Well, I've been saying something

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Speaker 1: around one five. I think maybe one four one five.

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Speaker 1: I think that is is doable. The Democrats have to

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Speaker 1: hold on to every one of their fifty senators, and

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Speaker 1: I'm not convinced John that they've got all fifty. They

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Speaker 1: might have forty eight, they might have forty nine. So

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Speaker 1: that this will I think boiled out to negotiations between

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden and Mitch McConnell. Great Valier with us with

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Speaker 1: the GF, and he will stay with us at this moment, Greg,

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Speaker 1: val so much of this And we just talked to

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Speaker 1: with there's the post poster for conservative Republicans. Is Republicans

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Speaker 1: acting fast to get ready for two thousand twenty two primaries?

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Speaker 1: What would you expect to see from conservative southern Republicans? Well,

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Speaker 1: it is amazing, isn't a ton that we're already talking

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Speaker 1: about twenty twenty two? But that's Washington. So a couple

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Speaker 1: of points I'd make. Number one, I do think that

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Speaker 1: the Republicans will hit hard on the issue of taxes

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Speaker 1: and ending. I think the country doesn't want big new taxes.

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Speaker 1: I think that's going to be a potent argument for them.

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Speaker 1: So I think that the other point I'd make is

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Speaker 1: that historically a first term president in his first midterm

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Speaker 1: election loses about five of House and Senate seats. If

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Speaker 1: Biden were to lose five percent of House and Senate seats,

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Speaker 1: he'd lose both houses. Greg, I want you to talk

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Speaker 1: about the silence of Mr Hoover and Mr Roosevelt long

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Speaker 1: ago and far away in the early days of the depression.

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Speaker 1: Without question, the quietest car ride in the history of

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Speaker 1: our presidents. With all your perspective, Greg Bellier, is Mr

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Speaker 1: Trump setting precedents here that we may see in the

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Speaker 1: future or in your opinion, is this a one off

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Speaker 1: of discord. I think it's a one off. I think

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Speaker 1: most politicians right or left respect tradition. You know, Trump doesn't.

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Speaker 1: He stirred the pot. I mean, that's Donald Trump. He

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Speaker 1: didn't respect a lot of the norms. But I think

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Speaker 1: as we go into other elections that there will be

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Speaker 1: more conciliation. Greg. When we talk about the presidency of Trump,

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Speaker 1: it was one that was anti establishment, it was anti Washington.

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Speaker 1: That was the goal of his taking out some of

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Speaker 1: the career members of the cabinet, of the various departments

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Speaker 1: and putting in his own people. What do you think

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Speaker 1: the legacy of that will be as Joe Biden comes

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Speaker 1: in and tries to reverse that. Well, you know, it's

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Speaker 1: one thing to blow things up. I get it that

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Speaker 1: there are certain institutions that haven't worked well and you

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Speaker 1: want to blow them up, but you have to have

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Speaker 1: something to replace them with. And he would blow things

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Speaker 1: up without any alternative, and I think that got tires up.

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Speaker 1: I also think the level of personal rancorps, the vindictiveness,

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Speaker 1: the ugliness of his tweets really distinguished him and really

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Speaker 1: diminished his cause. John, I think the British do this better.

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Speaker 1: You lose the election, what do you are you leave

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Speaker 1: in like three hours with the cardboard the next day.

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Speaker 1: And I do think the events in the last few

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Speaker 1: months Tom really exposed some vulnerability in that process. The process,

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Speaker 1: of course established for good reason many years ago. But

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Speaker 1: I wonder, Greg, just as a final question to you, sir,

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Speaker 1: whether that's something that people will rethink, will need to rethink,

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Speaker 1: whether you think we should rethink that well. I think

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Speaker 1: there were things that Trump did that were positive. Getting

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Speaker 1: tough with China I think everybody would agree on. I

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Speaker 1: think having fewer regulations people would agree on. It was

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Speaker 1: the way he did it. The way he did it

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Speaker 1: was was so over the top and outrageous that it

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Speaker 1: hurt his cause. Greg Bella, thank you so much for

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Speaker 1: joining us on the day of inauguration, and all of

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Speaker 1: us thank you for your perspective across this historic campaign.

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Speaker 1: Right now, with futures up seventeen and futures up sixty.

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Speaker 1: It is a market that is voting on prosperity for

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Speaker 1: the halves, voting for the prosperity of those that participate

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Speaker 1: in the markets. Alicia Levine is a wonderful student of this.

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Speaker 1: She's a b and y melon with acute mathematics and

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Speaker 1: a really really sharp set of critical thinking skills to

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Speaker 1: get us through two thousand twenty one. Alicia, if you

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Speaker 1: amended your view forward of the events of the last

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Speaker 1: thirty days, Yeah, good morning, Good morning, dream team. Your

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Speaker 1: coverage has been really wonderful this morning. Really enjoying it. Um, Yes,

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Speaker 1: we have, so we The way we've amended it is

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Speaker 1: to say that we think that for markets, the cyclical

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Speaker 1: trade has legs, it's deepened, and that the name of

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Speaker 1: the game is rotation here. And we think that because

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Speaker 1: as you can see, the stimulus is going to be enormous.

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Speaker 1: The initial proposal put forth by the incoming Biden administration

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Speaker 1: is double the size that Wall Street was really a expecting,

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Speaker 1: and direct checks to households are already being spent. We

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Speaker 1: saw the December direct checks coming into households the first

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Speaker 1: twelve days of the year on the order of a

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Speaker 1: hundred and thirty billion dollars, and those people who received

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Speaker 1: direct checks have already increased their credit card spending by

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Speaker 1: in the first week of January alone. So what does

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Speaker 1: that mean? This this economy is seventy consumption and whether

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Speaker 1: their households are saving the checks or spending them, g

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Speaker 1: d P will be going higher and with that the

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Speaker 1: sectors that are levered to the cyclical recovery will move

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Speaker 1: higher as well, and this trade will have legs Alicia,

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Speaker 1: where is that money being spent? So it's interesting. So

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Speaker 1: the households that are spending it tend to be households

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Speaker 1: that earned fifty dollars or less, and it's being spent

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Speaker 1: on things like clothing and food and and housing. Um.

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Speaker 1: The household that are spending it tend to be the

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Speaker 1: wealthier households. And that's why we think the second half

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Speaker 1: of the year, when services can come back online in

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Speaker 1: a more meaningful way, in a in a more regular

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Speaker 1: way because of the dissemination of vaccine, those households right

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Speaker 1: now have an extra one point for trillion dollars to

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Speaker 1: spend in savings, and that pent up demands is going

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Speaker 1: to meet that savings it's going to get higher with

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Speaker 1: increased checks to households. It's gonna be enormous spending in

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Speaker 1: this country. I think the boom is coming. So how

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Speaker 1: quickly could that spending drop off if we don't get

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Speaker 1: some sort of additional fiscal stimulus passed in the upcoming

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Speaker 1: to three months. So the bill that was passed in

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Speaker 1: December was really meant to get us through the end

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Speaker 1: of March, because the unemployment benefits expired and the extra

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Speaker 1: three dollars a week expires at the end of March,

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Speaker 1: and the checks really are of the amount to get

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Speaker 1: households through the end of March. So the Biden plan

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Speaker 1: is is another bridge, right, and and that's really to

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Speaker 1: look forward, get households um equalized here and how they

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Speaker 1: can handle their other scourge of the pandemic getting us

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Speaker 1: through into June and July. This is a lot of money, folks.

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Speaker 1: It's very hard to overstate how much money is being

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Speaker 1: spent on rescue here. And this is one reason why

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Speaker 1: a lot of people are expecting inflation to pick up

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Speaker 1: as the year goes on. This is one of the

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Speaker 1: big conundrums, though, couldn't pick up quite a bit more

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Speaker 1: than people had expected, pushing yields higher, pushing the Fed's

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Speaker 1: hands and frankly, torpedoing some of the most popular calls

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Speaker 1: in the equity market. Do you see a growing risk

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Speaker 1: of that given the pent up demand that can pent

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Speaker 1: up savings that you just talked about. Yeah, highly. So

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Speaker 1: this is like the question for the markets this year,

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Speaker 1: This is the defining question, and that's how quickly do

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Speaker 1: yields rise and what does the FED do about it?

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Speaker 1: So the biggest risk to markets here is the spiking yields,

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Speaker 1: not so much the gently rolling higher, but the spike.

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Speaker 1: And it's very clear that inflation will look hotter simply

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Speaker 1: because of calendar effects, because of base effect into the spring.

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Speaker 1: So no one should get too concerned about that. What

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Speaker 1: we've heard from the FED is that they're willing um

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Speaker 1: for higher inflation prints in to kind of pass by. However,

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Speaker 1: base effects can still seep into forward looking inflation expectations,

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Speaker 1: and so it's not just a wash, it's something to

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Speaker 1: look out for. We think the risk for inflation is higher.

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Speaker 1: I think the market will overlook what happens in the

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Speaker 1: prints for the spring as we move through the rest

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Speaker 1: of the year. I think the risk of that inflation

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Speaker 1: is higher than markets are currently expecting. Alicia, there's definitely

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Speaker 1: a lot of concern about this, and this is something

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Speaker 1: that we keep hearing about, this idea of inflation and

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Speaker 1: picking up. How do stocks respond if you do get

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Speaker 1: what you expect, which is higher than expected inflation. So

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Speaker 1: it's going to happen as as bond yields move higher,

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Speaker 1: is that you're going to compress some of the pees,

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Speaker 1: the preceding ratios, and that's going to really affect some

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Speaker 1: of the tech trades because what we because those are

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Speaker 1: long duration assets with high you know, high cash flowing assets,

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Speaker 1: So higher yields will dent some of the pe exuberants

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Speaker 1: on the tech trade, which is why we like cyclicals here.

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Speaker 1: We think overall it's not going to be a dent

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Speaker 1: in the market because the earnings power coming from the

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Speaker 1: cyclicals should kind of overcome the lower pees that the

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Speaker 1: market is willing to pay. Overall, we think earnings are

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Speaker 1: going higher, particularly in the second half of the year,

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Speaker 1: and that earnings of recovery is going to propel markets

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Speaker 1: going forward, not so much the pees, it's the earnings recovery.

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Speaker 1: Felicia Levine Withe this with b n Y Melon we'd

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Speaker 1: like to bring in right now is Mr Biden tense

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Speaker 1: church at St. Matthew's Cathedral from my own in college.

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Speaker 1: Jena Zana joins us, and Rick Davis joins us. Some

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Speaker 1: Stone Court as well. We now have the automobile leaving

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Speaker 1: Blairhouse and this is of course, uh Mr and Mrs

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Speaker 1: Biden moving off to church, Jennie. The symbolism here that

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Speaker 1: we have this morning, the differences here of this visit

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Speaker 1: to a church versus the visit by the President to

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Speaker 1: a church in the Ride and storm of Black Lives

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Speaker 1: Matter last summer. It's just as stark is anything in

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Speaker 1: this nation. Yeah, absolutely, and and by design I think, um,

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Speaker 1: you know, the Biden incoming administration has really been focused

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Speaker 1: on making a case for bipartisanship. This is somebody who

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Speaker 1: spent his life in the Senate. He understands. As he

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Speaker 1: gets set to send a huge immigration bill to Congress,

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Speaker 1: maybe as early as today, to sign over a dozen

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Speaker 1: executive orders to try to combat the coronavirus. With this

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Speaker 1: almost two trillion dollar bill, he understands he is going

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Speaker 1: to need the support of Republicans. With this Senate so

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Speaker 1: narrowly divided, and as he is trying. I agree with

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Speaker 1: Kevin to use the trip to the church symbolically, and

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Speaker 1: he's going to be accompanied by members of the leadership

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Speaker 1: on the Republican side to make the case for bipartisanship,

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Speaker 1: which we're going to hear an awful lot about unity

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Speaker 1: today and a speech I suspect as well. Maybe there'll

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Speaker 1: be some prayers in the Republican Party as they consider

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Speaker 1: a new Senate and not a fracture, but a more

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Speaker 1: fragile house. Rick Davis joins us now with his service

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Speaker 1: to the gentleman from Arizona, Mr McCain over the years,

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Speaker 1: Rick Davis, How does Senator McConnell pick up this pieces?

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Speaker 1: What is the McConnell process is minority leader even in

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Speaker 1: the next weeks and certainly in the next months. Well, Tom,

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Speaker 1: it's it's hard to conceive of that term Mitch McConnell

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Speaker 1: as minority leaders. Uh, but he's already sort of tipped

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Speaker 1: his hat. He's speaking pretty freely these days, which is

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Speaker 1: somewhat unusual about his plans as minority leader. And he

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Speaker 1: he did talk about the fact that in a divided Senate,

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Speaker 1: you're going to need to compromise and I thought I

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Speaker 1: would never live to hear the word compromise come out

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Speaker 1: of Mitch McConnell's mouth. But I think this is the

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Speaker 1: new Mitch McConnell, and I think he'll use opportunities to

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Speaker 1: ensure that legislation that does get through the United States

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Speaker 1: Senate has his work on it. He knows he can't

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Speaker 1: control the agenda now, but he can impact the outcome

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Speaker 1: of this legislation, and so I think that will be

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Speaker 1: his top priority, is just make sure that things don't

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Speaker 1: get through the Senate that cause irreparable harm to the

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Speaker 1: economy and to the policies of our nation. When Rick

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Speaker 1: what Rick? When Tom talks about unity and the fractures

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Speaker 1: that we've seen in the Republican Party, it raises a

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Speaker 1: question of who Mitch McConnell is representing right now. Given

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Speaker 1: the fact that a majority of Republicans polled according to

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Speaker 1: a number of different polls, still support President Trump, do

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Speaker 1: not think that he should have been, uh but impeached

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Speaker 1: or that he should resign. What do you make of

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Speaker 1: that in terms of how it influences Mitch McConnell and

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Speaker 1: his Republican Party as he charts his path forward. Well

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Speaker 1: Mitch mconnell still has office and office matters in these

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Speaker 1: kinds of cases. So regardless of the public popularity within

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Speaker 1: the Republican Party that Donald Trump has, Mitch McConnell actually

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Speaker 1: gets to go to work tomorrow morning and do the

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Speaker 1: nation's business. And so he will be one of a

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Speaker 1: couple of national leaders who are going to form the

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Speaker 1: Republican Party outlook on policy and politics between now and

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Speaker 1: the midterm elections, which is the next real check in

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Speaker 1: the system, and highly unlikely that there'll be a Trump

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Speaker 1: on a ticket uh in two But Mitch McConnell will

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Speaker 1: have a large cache of money and is currently recruiting

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Speaker 1: candidates for Senate races that are up in that period

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Speaker 1: of time. So he's going to continue to be a

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Speaker 1: very important mechanic of the Republican Party and a legislative strategists.

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Speaker 1: And right now, uh, he is about all we've got

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Speaker 1: as a leader in the Republican Party. Meanwhile, as we

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Speaker 1: talk about fractures in the Republican Party, there certainly are

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Speaker 1: fractures in the Democratic Party Genie, and there's a question

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Speaker 1: of how much Joe Biden will be able to bring

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Speaker 1: together the left and center and right frankly of the

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Speaker 1: Democratic Party in order to get through his policy. What

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Speaker 1: is the unity like when it comes to the Democratic caucus.

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Speaker 1: The unity we're seeing today is going to be really

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Speaker 1: the height of the unity we will see going forward.

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Speaker 1: It is going to be tough for Joe Biden to

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Speaker 1: keep this large, particularly in the House caucus together. We've

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Speaker 1: already heard frustration in some quarters of the progressive wing

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Speaker 1: in terms of his proposal on COVID relief, for instance,

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Speaker 1: saying things like that almost two trillion dollar bill doesn't

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Speaker 1: go far enough. And of course you look at the

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Speaker 1: opposite side on the Republican side, and even moderate Democrats

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Speaker 1: they say it goes way too far. In other words,

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Speaker 1: what does a fifteen dollar minimum wage have to do

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Speaker 1: with battling the coronavirus. So Joe Biden is going to

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Speaker 1: have his work cut out for him trying to keep

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Speaker 1: the caucus together on the Democratic side and trying to

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Speaker 1: please this really loud and energetic progressive wing of that party,

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Speaker 1: because he's going to have to do that, and his

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Speaker 1: focus is going to have to be trying to get

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Speaker 1: to sixty in the Senate, and that means he's going

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Speaker 1: to have to appeal to moderate Publicans and moderate Democrats,

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Speaker 1: and that's not going to make the progressives happy. So

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Speaker 1: all these bills were seeing him talk about, from immigration

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Speaker 1: to COVID relief. I suspect we will see watered down

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Speaker 1: versions of that if we see them get through the

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Speaker 1: Senate at all. And yesterday in Congress we got signals

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Speaker 1: it's not going to be easy, people like Josh Holly

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Speaker 1: holding up the DHS cabinet nomination, not fast tracking it,

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Speaker 1: Chuck Grassley saying he's got concerns about the COVID relief bill,

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Speaker 1: amongst other things, with the liberal components of that in there.

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Speaker 1: So those are signs already before Joe Biden is even

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Speaker 1: inaugurated that this is going to be a tough sort

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Speaker 1: of line for him to walk here jeans Ana with us,

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Speaker 1: and also Rick Davis here and again at the nine

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Speaker 1: o'clock our the Air Force one pulling away at Andrew's

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Speaker 1: Air Force Base, a president on his way to Florida,

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Speaker 1: and outside the Cathedral of St. Matthew in Washington, we're

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Speaker 1: waiting for Mr Biden, I believe, to uh enter the church,

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Speaker 1: and of course other worthies attending as well. The church

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Speaker 1: is one of the Jewels of Washington as a LeFarge

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Speaker 1: at the turn of the nineteenth century. It is Romanesque.

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Speaker 1: For those of you know the know Boston, there's the

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Speaker 1: church at Copley Square, which is much the same feeling,

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Speaker 1: maybe a number of years earlier uh than that, Rick Davis,

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Speaker 1: you know, is we go to this hour as the

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Speaker 1: president flies away. It is a changing of the era.

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Speaker 1: And what's so interesting to me, Rick Davis, there's a

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Speaker 1: huge presumption with Biden a seventy eight that this is

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Speaker 1: a one term presidency. I believe in my life I've

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Speaker 1: never understood this was a one term presidency as much

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Speaker 1: as this moment. How Rick Davis does the assumption of

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Speaker 1: a one term presidency changed the moment And it's a

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Speaker 1: very good point, Tom. Joe Biden, because of his age,

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Speaker 1: is probably termed out the day he gives his swearing in,

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Speaker 1: so uh it is something to remember. UH. Kamala Harris

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Speaker 1: is a uh new vice president, as has been remarked

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Speaker 1: many times historic UH, and she is going to be

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Speaker 1: seen as an heir apparent uh to Joe Biden for

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Speaker 1: a presidential run. In The question is can Joe Biden

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Speaker 1: UH be relevant over the next two years in order

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Speaker 1: to ensure that he doesn't start acting like a lame

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Speaker 1: duck president. As we recall, UH, in the last term

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Speaker 1: of UH Barack Obama's presidency, he was almost termed out.

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Speaker 1: In the first year of his second term, people saw

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Speaker 1: him no longer as the future UH, and so policy

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Speaker 1: waned and legislative action slowed down. UH Biden's got some momentum,

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Speaker 1: and he can write it as long as he can,

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Speaker 1: but the political realities are that he is in the

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Speaker 1: future of the Democratic Party. Two of you, thank you

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Speaker 1: so much. I know you'll be giving us guidance and

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Speaker 1: wisdom through the day. We greatly pre should a genius

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Speaker 1: of my owner and Rick Davis as well joining us

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Speaker 1: now handrittas Race of Vada Partners Economic policy director Handritt

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Speaker 1: sid I spelled on the words of Kevin, the biggest

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Speaker 1: policy battled down in d C still would come where

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Speaker 1: does it lie? I think the most interesting thing, and

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Speaker 1: Kevin gave such a great round up, is the reality

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Speaker 1: that Senator Schumer is going to be controlling the Senate

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Speaker 1: floor from here. So perhaps Senator Marco Rubio and others

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Speaker 1: in the Republican Conference want to hold out for the

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Speaker 1: perfect they may be able to make some real changes,

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Speaker 1: but when push comes to shove, it's going to be

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Speaker 1: a majority Leader Schumer that decides which bills go to

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Speaker 1: the Senate floor, and they're gonna have to vote against

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Speaker 1: a direct payment to individuals, against unemployment insurance benefits at

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Speaker 1: the federal level, against more vaccine and testing funding for

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Speaker 1: state and local governments. And that's going to be something

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Speaker 1: that they have to wear that they have not had

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Speaker 1: to deal with under Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. So I

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Speaker 1: think that start rate a big number, a big number,

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Speaker 1: one point nine really, and Henrietta and we've had a

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Speaker 1: big conversation the last couple of weeks about how much

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Speaker 1: that will have to come down. If you've got a

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Speaker 1: base case yet, Yeah, my base cases that we probably

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Speaker 1: end up at the very low end, in the seven

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Speaker 1: fifty billion dollar range, if they really try to get

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Speaker 1: sixty votes in ten of which we need to come

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Speaker 1: from the Republican conference. At the high end, maybe one

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Speaker 1: and a half trillion UM. I think that those negotiations

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Speaker 1: will probably last until about mid February, and then we'll

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Speaker 1: have an understanding of whether Democrats are going to have

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Speaker 1: to go it alone or continue trying to negotiate a

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Speaker 1: bipartisan package. Um, so it's gonna be a couple more weeks.

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Speaker 1: Here Henry and the time keen here in good morning

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Speaker 1: to you on this day of inauguration. Is the committee

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Speaker 1: process broken forever? Uh? In the Senate? I don't think so.

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Speaker 1: I mean, if that's what you're referring to, I think

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Speaker 1: that the committees are, especially with the Senators. There's a

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Speaker 1: lot of seniority there. So, for instance, there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of attention on Senator Bernie Sanders, who will be chairman

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Speaker 1: or co chair of the Senate Budget Committee. They're gonna

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Speaker 1: come with to an agreement on how to proceed. It

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Speaker 1: may take a couple of weeks to hash out, but

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Speaker 1: there will be a path forward. They will divvy up

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Speaker 1: committee assignments, there will be staff and budgets prepared for

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Speaker 1: all of them. There will be a reconciliation bill potentially

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Speaker 1: even three depending on who you talked to in the

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Speaker 1: Democratic Conference, and this, this power sharing agreement will get.

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Speaker 1: Sort of an interesting thing to keep your eye on

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Speaker 1: is whether any of the senators decided to leave either

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Speaker 1: of their parties become an independent and caucus with the

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Speaker 1: other side. Last time around, that's what happened. We could

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Speaker 1: definitely see that again. Yesterday we heard Jenny Ellen in

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Speaker 1: front of the Senate Banking Committee. We talked a lot about,

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Speaker 1: or we heard a lot about the potential for taxation.

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Speaker 1: This seemed to be a concern that Republicans were talking

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Speaker 1: about as they were saying, we need to pay for

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Speaker 1: this somehow do you expect that later this year we're

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Speaker 1: going to start hearing more about taxation from the Democratic Party?

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Speaker 1: The great question, Leasa, I don't think that the conversation

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Speaker 1: about taxation is ever going to go away. UM. I

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Speaker 1: assume that in the first House field that gets rolled

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Speaker 1: out as early as next Friday, there will be some

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Speaker 1: taxation components in it. Um. Certainly there would be in

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Speaker 1: a four trillion or six trillion dollar reconciliation build down

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Speaker 1: the line to offset infrastructure spending. But what members talk

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Speaker 1: about versus what's possible um in terms of actually legislating

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Speaker 1: getting fifty one votes but too very different conversations. I

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Speaker 1: can't find you the votes for tax increases. If there

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Speaker 1: are any, odds, it would come in very specific streamline

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Speaker 1: components applicable to very high net worth individuals, or very

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Speaker 1: specific income streams from very flush coverations, So the guilty tax,

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Speaker 1: the tax on intangibles held overseas um, the capital gains tax.

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Speaker 1: Those are conversations that could come up in the back

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Speaker 1: app of this year. You'll probably see headline risk before then,

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Speaker 1: but I don't anticipate that any of those tax pics

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Speaker 1: will actually be implemented. If they are, there will be

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Speaker 1: a phase in u there will be a lag time.

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Speaker 1: In twenty twenty three is the earliest that I see

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Speaker 1: the tax increases actually coming to fruition. In the meantime,

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Speaker 1: do you actually see any true fiscal hawks left in

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Speaker 1: Congress or have they continued to remain extinct even as

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Speaker 1: a Democrat takes office. Well, that's a good question. I

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Speaker 1: think if the Republicans are trying to get back there,

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Speaker 1: but Democrats are not really receiving that message right now.

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Speaker 1: The biggest component of having Bernie Sanders as Chairman of

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Speaker 1: the sent Budget Committee is that he's going to be

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Speaker 1: responsible for deciding what the appetite is for deficit spending,

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Speaker 1: and his appetite is pretty unlimited. When you have Treasury

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Speaker 1: sectary nominee Janet Yellen coming in yesterday and saying we

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Speaker 1: think that now is the time to deficit spend. Interest

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Speaker 1: rates are historic lows, there's not a real concern. And again,

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Speaker 1: having control of the set up floor and we're forcing

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Speaker 1: Republicans and their fiscal conservative mantra to vote against these

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Speaker 1: bills is much different than just avoiding these votes altogether.

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Speaker 1: So I think fiscal conservative it might be something that

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Speaker 1: we hear in the background, but for all intents and

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Speaker 1: purposes instead for the time being, and I'm gona trieselfa

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Speaker 1: Helenace Henrid. Always fantastic to get you with us. Thanks

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Speaker 1: for joining us today. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: or whichever podcast out for him you prefer. I'm on

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Speaker 1: Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. You can always

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Speaker 1: catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio.