Speaker 1: From Capitol Hill to courthouses around the country. It's been
Speaker 1: an eventful week in US politics. Bloomberg Congressional editor Megan
Speaker 1: Scully and White House and Politics editor Mario Parker joined
Speaker 1: me to review Speaker Mike Johnson's first stopcap spending vote
Speaker 1: and the latest in the twenty twenty four Republican presidential primary.
Speaker 1: And Bloomberg Legal reporter Zoe Tillman will catch us up
Speaker 1: on the Fourteenth Amendment legal challenges taking place in several
Speaker 1: states aimed at keeping former President Donald Trump off their
Speaker 1: primary ballots. Will also dig into Trump's ongoing legal battles
Speaker 1: in New York, Florida, Georgia, and Washington, d C. I'm
Speaker 1: your host Craig Gordon today on the Big Take. There's
Speaker 1: never a dull moment in US politics. Megan, Let's start
Speaker 1: with you. Mike Johnson is only weeks into his tenure
Speaker 1: as Speaker, and he's already cleared a major legislative hurdle
Speaker 1: with a funding plan that adverts the government shut down.
Speaker 1: Tell us what's in the plan, what's covered, and what's
Speaker 1: not well.
Speaker 2: The important thing is that it covers the entirety of
Speaker 2: the government, and it gets us through the December holidays
Speaker 2: and into the new year. Some federal agencies would shut
Speaker 2: down January nineteenth if there is not another interim spending
Speaker 2: deal or a longer term spending deal, while others, like
Speaker 2: the Defense Department would shut down on Groundhog Day, which
Speaker 2: seems fitting on February tecod. What it does not include, however,
Speaker 2: is perhaps more notable, and that is a lot of
Speaker 2: the demands from hardliners in the House for deep federal
Speaker 2: spending cuts as well as new border policies.
Speaker 3: We're not surrendering. We're fighting, but you have to be
Speaker 3: wise about choosing the fight. You've got to fight fights
Speaker 3: that you can win. And we're going to and you're
Speaker 3: going to see this House majority stand together on our
Speaker 3: principle and we're going to do.
Speaker 1: That, Megan. The interim funding plan managed to pass with
Speaker 1: real bipartisan support just three days before the deadline. More
Speaker 1: Democrats supported it than Republicans. In fact, who actually voted yes,
Speaker 1: who voted against it? And how did the reaction from
Speaker 1: the Freedom Caucus differ from the last time a speaker
Speaker 1: tried this, Kevin McCarthy.
Speaker 2: It's interesting if you look at the vote tally from
Speaker 2: this spending bill, it is nearly identical to the vote
Speaker 2: tally from the interim spending bill that got Kevin McCarthy
Speaker 2: ousted as Speaker of the House just a few weeks ago.
Speaker 2: The hardliners in the House, these ultra conservatives, the ones
Speaker 2: who've been pushing for deep spending cuts, particularly to domestic
Speaker 2: spending accounts, something in the order of thirty percent to
Speaker 2: some of these accounts, are predominantly the ones who voted
Speaker 2: against this measure. Mike Johnson was, once upon a time,
Speaker 2: when he was just a member of the Republican rank
Speaker 2: and file, one of those hardliners who voted against the
Speaker 2: last interim spending bill. However, he of course supported this measure,
Speaker 2: and unlike with McCarthy, who hardliners said that they did
Speaker 2: not trust from the get go, the ultra conservatives are
Speaker 2: seemingly willing to give Mike Johnson the benefit of the
Speaker 2: doubt and let him get used to the job, which
Speaker 2: he's been in for just about three weeks at this point.
Speaker 1: Began. You also mentioned the legislation leaves out some very
Speaker 1: important things, including a funding for Israel or Ukraine. What
Speaker 1: happens next on those battles.
Speaker 2: That is something that lawmakers in both chambers are trying
Speaker 2: to suss out right now. They're eager to leave town
Speaker 2: for the Thanksgiving holiday, so it is unlikely to happen
Speaker 2: funding for either Israel or for Ukraine before December. However,
Speaker 2: the House has passed its own Israel Aid package, which
Speaker 2: was separate from Ukraine Aid. However, that's drawn some significant
Speaker 2: backlash from Democrats due to how they wanted to go
Speaker 2: about paying for it. Democrats have also wanted to link
Speaker 2: Israel Aid to Ukraine Aid. Israel Aid has pretty widespread
Speaker 2: bipartisan support in both chambers of Congress, whereas there is
Speaker 2: some strong opposition, particularly from ultra conservatives in the House
Speaker 2: and a few in the Senate as well, to Ukraine Aid,
Speaker 2: so that one is certainly the more uncertain of the
Speaker 2: two sixty one billion dollars that the Biden administration requested,
Speaker 2: and Speaker Johnson has said this is something that he's
Speaker 2: going to take up, but there are members of the
Speaker 2: House Freedom Caucus who are really pushing back against that.
Speaker 2: So we're likely going to see there try to be
Speaker 2: some kind of consensus when lawmakers return later in November
Speaker 2: or early in December to wrap Ukraine funding along with
Speaker 2: some divisive border policies and border spending that Democrats are
Speaker 2: sure to resist, leaving an ugly end of year showdown
Speaker 2: on these matters.
Speaker 1: So Megan talk a little bit about Speaker Johnson's two
Speaker 1: tiered rolling approach to the next funding deadlines. There's one
Speaker 1: on January nineteenth for one set of programs, February second
Speaker 1: for the other. Talk about how that structure helped this
Speaker 1: bill pass, but what they're leaving for themselves to come
Speaker 1: back to in the new year.
Speaker 2: This approach, which was called the laddered approach, which is
Speaker 2: the first time in all of my years covering Congress
Speaker 2: that I've heard that term, and I think a lot
Speaker 2: of us were trying to figure out what that was,
Speaker 2: certainly when the new Speaker proposed it. But it essentially
Speaker 2: would have a two stage government shutdown in which some
Speaker 2: of the funds expire on January nineteenth. Interestingly, January nineteenth
Speaker 2: is right in between the Iowa caucuses and the New
Speaker 2: Hampshire primary, so it is a pretty divisive political time,
Speaker 2: pretty important political time, at least in terms of presidential politics.
Speaker 2: Several agencies would be lumped in there, including the Department
Speaker 2: of Veterans Affairs, and they would shut down as they
Speaker 2: would have on November eighteenth had this interim spending plan
Speaker 2: not come together, but then the Defense Department, most notably,
Speaker 2: would continue having funding until February. Tewod the Defense Department
Speaker 2: budget includes about half of all federal discretionary spending, so
Speaker 2: that is the biggest outlier out there, and it's typically
Speaker 2: the forcing function and the vehicle as we call it,
Speaker 2: to push other spending bills across the line. Certainly, it's
Speaker 2: something that Republicans across the board tend to support, and
Speaker 2: most Democrats do as well. So what we could see
Speaker 2: essentially is a government shut down for more than half
Speaker 2: of federal agencies in mid January, and then the Pentagon
Speaker 2: and some others still open for just a little bit longer.
Speaker 1: Mario, a lot of us who've been paying attention to
Speaker 1: Washington for a long time, it's pretty extraordinary to see
Speaker 1: Democrats and Republicans come together in Congress to do much
Speaker 1: of anything, let alone past federal spending plan. But obviously
Speaker 1: this has occurred because the Republicans among themselves can't seem
Speaker 1: to agree on how to do that. Do you think
Speaker 1: we are actually seeing potentially a new era of sort
Speaker 1: of bipartisan coordination between Democrats who want to keep the
Speaker 1: government open, Republicans who want to keep the government open,
Speaker 1: and it kind of splits off the Freedom Caucus and
Speaker 1: the more hard right conservatives that are off to the side.
Speaker 1: You have enough votes to pass it. Speaker Johnson just
Speaker 1: proved that this week. Are we seeing something brand new here?
Speaker 4: I'm not sure I would take it that far just yet.
Speaker 4: I think this would be more in the one off category.
Speaker 4: We have to keep in mind the backdrop of all
Speaker 4: of this. We're about less than a year out from
Speaker 4: the twenty twenty four presidential election. We've got to Megan's
Speaker 4: point Israel, Hamaz, Ukraine, Russia. When Matt Gay and those
Speaker 4: members of the House out at the speaker. That was
Speaker 4: right before Hamas's attack on Israel right, which brought even
Speaker 4: more of a spotlight to this circus, if you will
Speaker 4: here in Washington among Republicans, and that fit right into
Speaker 4: the Biden White House and Democrats plans to cast Republicans
Speaker 4: as a party unable to govern right. So it was
Speaker 4: an a on one hand, embarrassing you had the world
Speaker 4: spotlight on this drama that was unfolding in the House,
Speaker 4: and then you played into Democrat narratives that this is
Speaker 4: a party that's unable to govern if you give them
Speaker 4: the keys to do so. With all of that, there
Speaker 4: was an incentive there right to try to get this
Speaker 4: behind them, even though the Israel Palestine funding Ukraine funding
Speaker 4: isn't in there. To Megan's point, the Ukraine part will
Speaker 4: be a lot more contentious, But you do get the
Speaker 4: sense that Republicans wanted to quickly kind of move on
Speaker 4: from this. They gave new Speaker Mike Johnson some of
Speaker 4: the goodwill up front to be able to pull some
Speaker 4: of this off right now and again just heading into
Speaker 4: the holiday season. At least for right now, it puts
Speaker 4: to some of the optics around a party in chaos.
Speaker 1: So, Megan, since the funding questions are now kick to
Speaker 1: late January, what else are you watching for in the
Speaker 1: early part of twenty twenty four beyond the spending deadlines
Speaker 1: Israel Ukraine? What are some of the other big issues
Speaker 1: Speaker Johnson's going to have to contend with.
Speaker 2: A possible impeachment of the United States President is certainly
Speaker 2: one thing that we will be returning to in the
Speaker 2: new year. Speaker McCarthy, during his tenure as the leader
Speaker 2: of the House started an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden, you.
Speaker 5: Know, the months that we were gone. In the weeks,
Speaker 5: House Republicans have uncovered serious and credible allegations into President
Speaker 5: Biden's conduct. Taken together, these allegations paint a picture of
Speaker 5: a culture of corruption.
Speaker 2: There are still Republicans who are very anxious to get
Speaker 2: back to that after a fall that has been and
Speaker 2: consumed by battles, overspending, and a three week process to
Speaker 2: elect a new speaker. So I see that as percolating
Speaker 2: early next year. It's unclear whether they will go into
Speaker 2: a full on impeachment of the president, but certainly election
Speaker 2: year politics will propel Republicans, particularly Joe Biden's most vocal
Speaker 2: foes on Capitol Hill, to try to dig further into
Speaker 2: the investigation into the president's finances, into actions taken by
Speaker 2: his son Hunter and other members of his family, and
Speaker 2: leading to a potential vote on the House floor, and
Speaker 2: if the impeachment did happen, certainly trial in the US Senate.
Speaker 1: After the break, a look at the twenty twenty four
Speaker 1: GOP candidates and what the polls are telling us about
Speaker 1: a potential Trump Biden rematch, Mario. The twenty twenty four
Speaker 1: primaries begin about two months from now. What are the
Speaker 1: polls telling us about the shape of the Republican fight
Speaker 1: for the presidential nomination.
Speaker 4: Well, right now, the polls are telling us that it's
Speaker 4: more of a coronation than it is a primary. And
Speaker 4: that's for ex President Donald Trump as he wages this
Speaker 4: White House comeback bid.
Speaker 6: This election will decide whether power in America belongs to
Speaker 6: them forever or whether it belongs to you, the men
Speaker 6: and women who make this country great, who make this
Speaker 6: country run. Twenty twenty four is our final battle.
Speaker 4: He's got a wide lead in most of the primary
Speaker 4: states over the rest of the field, and we're talking
Speaker 4: about somewhere to the tune of forty to fifty percentage points.
Speaker 4: In national polls, he also has a wide lead as well.
Speaker 4: But again to your point, Craig, I mean, we're going
Speaker 4: to see Iowa Republicans going to the polls on January fifteenth.
Speaker 4: The pressure that's on former President Donald Trump is that
Speaker 4: anything short of a resounding victory essentially amounts to a
Speaker 4: moral loss.
Speaker 1: So as we talk to these voters in the Bloomberg
Speaker 1: News Morning consolet poll what are they telling us about
Speaker 1: their views of current President Joe Biden and Donald Trump,
Speaker 1: who's trying to get back to the White House.
Speaker 4: The poll will show for the White House just discontinued frustration.
Speaker 4: Voters ask for these kitchen table issues. Right outside of
Speaker 4: the whole Maga movement and some of the populism and
Speaker 4: some of the language around culture wars, there was this
Speaker 4: feeling of two cars in a garage, everybody has food
Speaker 4: on the table, jobs manufacturing, lower cost of living, all
Speaker 4: those things. Biden sought to do that with his legislative agenda.
Speaker 4: And yet the frustration for the White House is the
Speaker 4: fact that, and it bears out in our poll, is
Speaker 4: that voters are looking at former President Donald Trump as
Speaker 4: a preferred choice as the one that they feel most
Speaker 4: confident about handling those issues. Craig, you may recall we
Speaker 4: had infrastructure Week every week the White House. Biden has
Speaker 4: a running joke about that on the campaign trail, and
Speaker 4: yet he was able to get that across the finish line,
Speaker 4: and voters are giving his predecessor the credit. So for
Speaker 4: former President Trump, the salesman by nature, this is something
Speaker 4: that he's willing to capitalize on on the campaign trail.
Speaker 1: So the presidential elections obviously a national election fifty states,
Speaker 1: but it really boils down to six or seven right
Speaker 1: there in the Heartland and Mario. The Bloomberg News Morning
Speaker 1: Console Paul focused very specifically on a handful of those states.
Speaker 1: What states did we look at and what are the
Speaker 1: voters in those states telling us about the race?
Speaker 4: Yeah, we've got Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia,
Speaker 4: and Michigan are among the key swing states that we
Speaker 4: poll in the Bloomberg Morning Consult poll. And most of
Speaker 4: those states, I mean cumulatively, Trump has a six point
Speaker 4: percentage lead over President Biden. What's troubling again for Democrats
Speaker 4: is that's outside of the margin for error. And many
Speaker 4: of those states Trump has a wide lead. I'm thinking
Speaker 4: Georgia and North Carolina for example. Michigan, he's tied there,
Speaker 4: but again, he spent a lot of resources in time
Speaker 4: visiting Michigan, including visiting the picket line when the UAW
Speaker 4: workers were on strike against the Big three.
Speaker 7: Times Wall Street didn't the middle class built the class fact,
Speaker 7: So let's keep going.
Speaker 4: It pretends to be at best a tough election for
Speaker 4: president Biden. At worst, it looks like he could, at
Speaker 4: least at this point, be headed for a loss. Now,
Speaker 4: what I will add is that the White House, when
Speaker 4: you speak to them, what they say is that, Hey, Obama,
Speaker 4: during this time in twenty twelve was trailing Mitt Romney.
Speaker 4: They have time to break through with their messaging. They've
Speaker 4: got a million dollar ad by that they're doing to
Speaker 4: canvas the airwaves. They're trying to cally support of these
Speaker 4: different constituencies, and that they have time on their side.
Speaker 1: Our poll also asked about a storied name in American politics,
Speaker 1: that of Robert F. Kennedy Junior, who recently dropped his
Speaker 1: Democratic primary bid and decided to run as an independent.
Speaker 8: I've come here today to declare our independence from the
Speaker 8: journey of corruption, which robs us of affordable lives, our
Speaker 8: belief in the future, and our respect for each other.
Speaker 8: But to do that, I must first declare my own independence,
Speaker 8: independence from the Democratic Party.
Speaker 1: What did our poll show about how voters feel about him?
Speaker 1: Does he pull votes away from Biden from Trump equally? Mario?
Speaker 1: What did the poll find?
Speaker 4: You hit the nail on the here, Craig. That name
Speaker 4: ID has a lot of weight, particularly in a place
Speaker 4: like Michigan, where he was upwards of about twenty percent
Speaker 4: or so. This is not great news for Republicans and
Speaker 4: former President Donald Trump. You wouldn associate him necessarily with Trump,
Speaker 4: but there's some of the stuff around COVID vaccines, etc.
Speaker 4: That the skepticism and conspiracy theories there that kind of
Speaker 4: streamline with parts of the MAGA base. So in some
Speaker 4: ways you're seeing Trump and his campaign already start light
Speaker 4: attacks on RFK Jr. As of right now, this is
Speaker 4: shaping up to be the election of the angry voter,
Speaker 4: the election of the third party candidate, the election where
Speaker 4: voters are searching for an alternative beyond the two party system.
Speaker 4: And now you've got RFK Jr. You've got Cornell West,
Speaker 4: you've got Jill Stein all jumping into the race, and
Speaker 4: those others, the Jill Stein's, the Cornell West. And then
Speaker 4: we still have this blooming threat from the No Labels movement,
Speaker 4: with soon to be retiring US Senator Joe Manchin possibly
Speaker 4: teasing a campaign or bid there as well, which is
Speaker 4: very troubling for the White House.
Speaker 1: Mario, we talked a lot about Israel Gaza in relation
Speaker 1: to US, but how is that as you're playing out
Speaker 1: on the campaign trail.
Speaker 4: Well, on the campaign trail, you're seeing staunch support for Israel. Right,
Speaker 4: that's still as much as our politics have changed and
Speaker 4: the Republican Party has changed, that hawkash Bent still leans
Speaker 4: toward resounding support for Israel, the US's strongest partner in
Speaker 4: the Middle East. There's not a whole lot of daylight
Speaker 4: in between what the Republican candidates are arguing about in
Speaker 4: that regard. Ultimately, the support there is pretty strong. Where
Speaker 4: you see the daylight and policy of course, as Megan
Speaker 4: said earlier, is just done that Ukraine Russia support as well.
Speaker 4: Now on the Democratic side, Joe Biden has a tough
Speaker 4: heal to climb here with this as well, because he's
Speaker 4: taken a more traditional stance full throated support for Israel.
Speaker 4: But you've seen a little bit more nuanced in some
Speaker 4: of his statements over the last couple of weeks, including
Speaker 4: some key administration officials taking Israel Prime Minister I who
Speaker 4: a bit to task on the heavy handed approach to
Speaker 4: the retaliatory attacks and the Gaza strip. The reason being
Speaker 4: is the domestic politics are shifting quite a bit, so
Speaker 4: you're seeing Biden try to figure out a way to
Speaker 4: both keep this traditional stance in US support for Key ally,
Speaker 4: but also having faced the necessity of this happening at
Speaker 4: a point where he needs to colly support to generate momentum.
Speaker 4: Going back to those polls we mentioned, as he heads
Speaker 4: toward twenty twenty four with all parts of the Democratic
Speaker 4: base walking lockstep.
Speaker 1: We've talked a lot about Biden, Trump, even Robert F. Kennedy,
Speaker 1: But I want to ask Megan about another senator who
Speaker 1: recently dropped out of the race. You know, there's a
Speaker 1: joke in Washington every senator looks in the mirror and
Speaker 1: s he's a president. While one who might have was
Speaker 1: named Tim Scott from South Carolina, who recently dropped out
Speaker 1: of the race. I have to say I thought he
Speaker 1: might get a little more attraction than he did. Why
Speaker 1: do you think he fell short?
Speaker 2: Tim Scott? I think came across on the campaign trail
Speaker 2: as a bit wooden, and that has been essentially his
Speaker 2: demeanor on Capitol Hill. He's never been a senator who
Speaker 2: wants to stop and chat in the hallways. It's never
Speaker 2: been a senator who comes in with a tremendous personality,
Speaker 2: makes jokes or really has ever kind of felt at home,
Speaker 2: I think beyond the day to day happenings as a senator.
Speaker 2: And I think you saw that on the presidential campaign
Speaker 2: trail as well.
Speaker 1: So let's talk about the other candidate and the Republican
Speaker 1: race who is getting a lot of attention right now,
Speaker 1: and that's Nikki Haley, also from South Carolina, was the
Speaker 1: governor there, of course, probably best known to most Americans
Speaker 1: as are you an ambassador under Donald Trump?
Speaker 7: There?
Speaker 9: I first like to say, they're five inch shields and
Speaker 9: I don't wear them unless you can run on them.
Speaker 8: We've got two of you on school.
Speaker 9: Second thing that I will say is I wear a
Speaker 9: heels or not for a fashion statement? There for ammunition.
Speaker 1: She is definitely seems to have edged out Rond De Santis,
Speaker 1: the Florida governor, for the number two spot, or certainly
Speaker 1: the polls will suggest that she's it's starting to take
Speaker 1: some donors away from other candidates, including you know, some
Speaker 1: of the Tim Scott folks who are looking for a
Speaker 1: place to spend their money. Mario tell us about Nicki
Speaker 1: Haley's appeal to Republican voters and where do you think
Speaker 1: it goes from here?
Speaker 4: Nicki Haley in some ways as an outlier. Right, she
Speaker 4: started off pretty low in the polls and has used
Speaker 4: that as a way to get her message out, which
Speaker 4: is a little bit more toward traditional Republican values. She's
Speaker 4: not dodged the issue of abortion. She's used that in
Speaker 4: a personal way or her standing as a UN ambassador.
Speaker 4: She's been able to tout some of her foreign policy
Speaker 4: bona fides and articulate that in ways that Ron DeSantis
Speaker 4: and Tim Scott haven't. She's just been really sharp with
Speaker 4: the one liners and the heat of the moment as well,
Speaker 4: just winning those moments that we have in the debate, right,
Speaker 4: those moments against Vivet Ramaswami, those moments against Tim Scott,
Speaker 4: and those moments against Ron DeSantis, and it's caught Donor's attention,
Speaker 4: and now you're seeing them kind of lying up behind her,
Speaker 4: and wonder if after eight years, this person who may
Speaker 4: finally be able to snatch the scepter from Trump and
Speaker 4: move on to a more familiar brand of Republicanism may
Speaker 4: be emerging.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 4: Again, the caveat is that she's down about forty points
Speaker 4: or so, but this is one of the things that's
Speaker 4: tantalizing for donors and voters alike.
Speaker 1: Thank you, Megan, and thank you Mario.
Speaker 4: Thanks, thank you.
Speaker 1: When we come back, a look at the latest on
Speaker 1: former President Donald Trump's legal battles. The flurry of court
Speaker 1: cases involving former President Donald Trump have been top of
Speaker 1: mind this week as Trump and his family testify in
Speaker 1: New York. There has also been movement in the DC
Speaker 1: election interference case and a decision on timing in the
Speaker 1: Florida case involving classified documents. Here to bring us up
Speaker 1: to speed on a Trump's legal battles is Bloomberg Legal
Speaker 1: reporter Zoe Tilman. Zoe tell us about the origin of
Speaker 1: these Fourteenth Amendment cases that are popping up across the country.
Speaker 1: Where are these challenges taking place, what is their basis,
Speaker 1: and what do they hope to accomplish.
Speaker 10: So the section of the Fourteenth Amendment that we're dealing
Speaker 10: with here was adopted after the Civil War. It was
Speaker 10: part of an effort by Congress to deal with members
Speaker 10: of the Confederacy who wanted back in to politics and
Speaker 10: what to do with them, and it was mostly to
Speaker 10: initially at least bar them from holding office again because
Speaker 10: of their role in an insurrection, but after the reconstruction
Speaker 10: period really was dormant for a long time, and then
Speaker 10: after the January sixth attack on the Capitol, it began
Speaker 10: as a mostly academic exercise with legal scholars saying, hey,
Speaker 10: this language is still here, and if we're talking about
Speaker 10: the attack as an insurrection, are people like Donald Trump
Speaker 10: who played a role in trying to overturn the election
Speaker 10: inspireing the riot, are they potentially covered by this and
Speaker 10: barred from holding office again? And that has now moved
Speaker 10: in the past few months from a mostly academic conversation
Speaker 10: to one that is landing in courtrooms across the country.
Speaker 10: So there have been several dozen cases filed, many dismissed
Speaker 10: for really early procedural deficiencies, just not gone very far.
Speaker 10: But there are a handful that have made it past
Speaker 10: those early challenges and they're essentially saying January sixth was
Speaker 10: an insurrection. This language can apply to someone like former
Speaker 10: President Donald Trump and the role that he played in
Speaker 10: allegedly inciting the riot, even if he wasn't there storming
Speaker 10: the Capitol, and that he shouldn't appear on ballots in
Speaker 10: either primary or general elections because he is constitutionally ineligible
Speaker 10: to hold office, just like if he was twenty years
Speaker 10: old and running for the presidency. They're saying it's the
Speaker 10: same thing. Trump is raising a number of defenses against this,
Speaker 10: some of which are that it can't apply to a
Speaker 10: former president, it can't apply to the presidency, wasn't an insurrection.
Speaker 10: And then if we get to the merits, his lawyers
Speaker 10: are arguing that what he did is not engaging in
Speaker 10: an insurrection, that he was engaging in political speech, political advocacy,
Speaker 10: and this is not the kind of conduct that this language,
Speaker 10: assuming it is even viable, was meant to cover.
Speaker 1: Earlier this week, a fourteenth Amendment case in Michigan was
Speaker 1: thrown out on the grounds that Michigan Secretary of State
Speaker 1: doesn't have the power to keep the former president off
Speaker 1: the ballot. But there are active cases in Minnesota and Colorado.
Speaker 1: Let's take them one at a time. Zoe, tell us
Speaker 1: what's happening in Minnesota.
Speaker 10: The Minnesota case was not the first one filed, but
Speaker 10: leapfrogged ahead a bit in terms of status. It was
Speaker 10: because of differences in state law across the country when
Speaker 10: it comes to elections. It was filed right away in
Speaker 10: the Minnesota Supreme Court, so they took it right to
Speaker 10: the top. And what the justices did after hearing arguments
Speaker 10: was they kind of kicked the can down the road
Speaker 10: and they basically said, we're going to dismiss this because
Speaker 10: for the primary election, this is not really a substantive
Speaker 10: election contest. This is a political exercise that state election
Speaker 10: officials basically help the major parties with where they administer
Speaker 10: a primary to help them choose a nominee who will
Speaker 10: run in the general election, and that's where constitutional eligibility
Speaker 10: is a more salient issue. So it was a very
Speaker 10: short opinion after very lengthy briefing and arguments, and the
Speaker 10: justice is said, but if he's the nominee and this
Speaker 10: is still a live issue as we're heading into the
Speaker 10: general election, you can come back to us and maybe
Speaker 10: we'll actually engage with these really difficult, sticky, substantive questions
Speaker 10: around the fourteenth Amendment.
Speaker 1: Zoe, tell us what's happening in the Colorado case.
Speaker 10: This isn't a Denver District court state court where we've
Speaker 10: essentially just finished a full on trial on this issue,
Speaker 10: where the judge had rejected a lot of Trump's sort
Speaker 10: of initial procedural challenges to how this case was playing out,
Speaker 10: and heard evidence and witnesses and testimony on all of
Speaker 10: these different issues that we've just been talking about. What
Speaker 10: is an insurrection? Was January sixth and insurrection? What role
Speaker 10: did he play and was it engaging in an insurrection?
Speaker 10: And can it even apply to the president? And the
Speaker 10: judge there is poised to rule in the coming weeks,
Speaker 10: and it is expected to be the first time since
Speaker 10: Minnesota petered out that we get some kind of substantive
Speaker 10: ruling on these issues. At that point, whoever loses can
Speaker 10: take it up to the Colorado Supreme Court, and then
Speaker 10: whoever loses there can take it to the US Supreme Court.
Speaker 10: So it could move quite quickly if they're trying to
Speaker 10: get a ruling before the Secretary of State in Colorado
Speaker 10: is printing primary ballots. I think everyone has discussed in
Speaker 10: these hearings how there is a schedule that they have
Speaker 10: to deal with and an election, and everyone knows that
Speaker 10: someone might want to take this to the Supreme Court,
Speaker 10: So that's in the back of everyone's minds at this point.
Speaker 1: Well, the President and his lawyers are in a variety
Speaker 1: of other courthouses around the country right now one right
Speaker 1: here in New York City, where his daughter Avanka Trump
Speaker 1: had to take the stand a few days after the
Speaker 1: former president himself took the stand. What did we learn
Speaker 1: from Avanka Trump's testimony and where does that case stand
Speaker 1: right now?
Speaker 10: What she basically testified was that she was not involved
Speaker 10: in preparing a lot of the personal financial statements that
Speaker 10: are at the heart of this case where Donald Trump
Speaker 10: is being accused of inflating his assets to get better
Speaker 10: loan terms and that that defrauded financial institutions. But she
Speaker 10: did testify about her work securing loans for the properties,
Speaker 10: some of the properties that were at issue that in
Speaker 10: some cases were based on what his personal financial net
Speaker 10: worth looked like. So it was, I think trying to
Speaker 10: walk a line, it seemed, between acknowledging the work that
Speaker 10: she did and is documented on behalf of the organization,
Speaker 10: but distancing herself from the core financial statements for Donald
Speaker 10: Trump personally that are really at issue in this case.
Speaker 1: Switching down to Washington, d C. The Special Council, Jack
Speaker 1: Smith also as a variety of court filings recently that
Speaker 1: attempt to put Trump right in the center of the activities.
Speaker 1: On January sixth, up on Capitol Hill tell us where
Speaker 1: the Special Council's headed.
Speaker 10: Well, there are a couple of big fights, but one
Speaker 10: of the biggest ones that's most imminent has to do
Speaker 10: with the gag order that the former president is under
Speaker 10: in DC, where he's barred from talking about Jack Smith,
Speaker 10: the Special Council, about witnesses and their testimony in court staff.
Speaker 10: And there's going to be a big appear Sills Court
Speaker 10: showdown over that in the next week or so. We
Speaker 10: also have Jack Smith and prosecutors pushing back on Donald
Speaker 10: Trump's many motions to get the indictment and the different
Speaker 10: counts dismissed. The biggest issue is is he entitled to
Speaker 10: presidential immunity against this entire case. Prosecutors say absolutely not.
Speaker 10: But he's also lodging a number of other contests to
Speaker 10: different counts in the indictment and also accusing prosecutors of
Speaker 10: using inflammatory, irrelevant language to talk about January sixth in
Speaker 10: the riot itself, that the defense says is just aimed
Speaker 10: at inflaming public opinion. And so right now there's just
Speaker 10: a flurry of papers going back and forth, both in
Speaker 10: the trial court level and also at the appeals court level.
Speaker 10: On the gag order.
Speaker 1: We can finish up in Florida, where the president spends
Speaker 1: most of his time. It is mar A lago A state.
Speaker 1: The judge there recently talked a little bit about the calendar.
Speaker 1: Why don't you tell us how that trial is shaping up.
Speaker 10: So that was a trial date that we had, which
Speaker 10: was May twentieth, now seems very much in jeopardy. Trump's
Speaker 10: lawyers have accused prosecutors of dragging their feet on turning
Speaker 10: over evidence. They've said that the classified evidence in that
Speaker 10: case is voluminous and complex, and that there have been
Speaker 10: access issues. The government has really pushed back on how
Speaker 10: the defense has described some of these issues and said
Speaker 10: that this is puffery and he's just trying to kick
Speaker 10: it down the road as much as he can. So
Speaker 10: the judge said, I'm not going to deal with the
Speaker 10: trial date yet, but she reset a number of deadlines
Speaker 10: on other issues in the case that seemed to make
Speaker 10: it all but impossible to stick with that May twentieth trial.
Speaker 10: And what Donald Trump ultimately wants is to get this
Speaker 10: past November, past the general election. Whether the judge ends
Speaker 10: up doing that remains to be seen, but what she
Speaker 10: did was set a hearing for March. She said, let's
Speaker 10: talk about the trial schedule then. But given the amount
Speaker 10: of delay that she's built in, it does seem quite
Speaker 10: unlikely that they're going to stick with May twentieth as
Speaker 10: a trial.
Speaker 1: And this, of course is the case on the classified
Speaker 1: documents that the president allegedly had in his possession at
Speaker 1: mar A Lago. So you're covering all of these cases
Speaker 1: of the four, and we didn't talk about Fulton County, Georgia,
Speaker 1: which the one you're paying the most attention to, the
Speaker 1: one that you think post is the most legal peril
Speaker 1: to the former president.
Speaker 10: I think that question is hard to answer. Each one
Speaker 10: rises and falls given different events. Georgia was quiet for
Speaker 10: a while, that's the state election obstruction case, and then
Speaker 10: suddenly four co defendants of the former presidents took guilty
Speaker 10: please including some of his former top campaign lawyers. And
Speaker 10: does that increase the amount of jeopardy that he faces
Speaker 10: in Georgia issues? In the DC case, the federal election case,
Speaker 10: things were on track, and then he argues he's entitled
Speaker 10: to total immunity and that the entire case should be
Speaker 10: put on hold until that's litigated, potentially up to the
Speaker 10: Supreme Court, so we have at different times, each case
Speaker 10: presents new twists and turns. None have unfolded on sort
Speaker 10: of a regular, normal, predictable path.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for that, so we really appreciate it.
Speaker 10: Thanks for having me on, Thanks.
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Speaker 1: The supervising producer of The Big Take is Vicky Verrgalina.
Speaker 1: Our senior producer is Catherine Fink. Sam Gebauer produced this episode.
Speaker 1: Raphael mcilely is our engineer. Our original music was composed
Speaker 1: by Leo Sidrin. I'm Craig Gordon. We'll be taking a
Speaker 1: break next week for Thanksgiving here in the US. We'll
Speaker 1: return on November twenty seventh with new episodes. Have a
Speaker 1: great holiday.