1 00:00:01,760 --> 00:00:05,160 Speaker 1: From Capitol Hill to courthouses around the country. It's been 2 00:00:05,200 --> 00:00:09,520 Speaker 1: an eventful week in US politics. Bloomberg Congressional editor Megan 3 00:00:09,600 --> 00:00:13,000 Speaker 1: Scully and White House and Politics editor Mario Parker joined 4 00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:16,880 Speaker 1: me to review Speaker Mike Johnson's first stopcap spending vote 5 00:00:17,079 --> 00:00:20,600 Speaker 1: and the latest in the twenty twenty four Republican presidential primary. 6 00:00:21,120 --> 00:00:23,960 Speaker 1: And Bloomberg Legal reporter Zoe Tillman will catch us up 7 00:00:24,040 --> 00:00:27,320 Speaker 1: on the Fourteenth Amendment legal challenges taking place in several 8 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:30,720 Speaker 1: states aimed at keeping former President Donald Trump off their 9 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:34,879 Speaker 1: primary ballots. Will also dig into Trump's ongoing legal battles 10 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:44,720 Speaker 1: in New York, Florida, Georgia, and Washington, d C. I'm 11 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:47,680 Speaker 1: your host Craig Gordon today on the Big Take. There's 12 00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 1: never a dull moment in US politics. Megan, Let's start 13 00:00:59,920 --> 00:01:02,680 Speaker 1: with you. Mike Johnson is only weeks into his tenure 14 00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:05,720 Speaker 1: as Speaker, and he's already cleared a major legislative hurdle 15 00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:07,880 Speaker 1: with a funding plan that adverts the government shut down. 16 00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:10,880 Speaker 1: Tell us what's in the plan, what's covered, and what's 17 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:11,920 Speaker 1: not well. 18 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:14,840 Speaker 2: The important thing is that it covers the entirety of 19 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:18,560 Speaker 2: the government, and it gets us through the December holidays 20 00:01:18,560 --> 00:01:22,280 Speaker 2: and into the new year. Some federal agencies would shut 21 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:26,400 Speaker 2: down January nineteenth if there is not another interim spending 22 00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:29,160 Speaker 2: deal or a longer term spending deal, while others, like 23 00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:32,720 Speaker 2: the Defense Department would shut down on Groundhog Day, which 24 00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:38,040 Speaker 2: seems fitting on February tecod. What it does not include, however, 25 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:41,840 Speaker 2: is perhaps more notable, and that is a lot of 26 00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:46,240 Speaker 2: the demands from hardliners in the House for deep federal 27 00:01:46,319 --> 00:01:49,760 Speaker 2: spending cuts as well as new border policies. 28 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:52,600 Speaker 3: We're not surrendering. We're fighting, but you have to be 29 00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:55,840 Speaker 3: wise about choosing the fight. You've got to fight fights 30 00:01:55,880 --> 00:01:57,560 Speaker 3: that you can win. And we're going to and you're 31 00:01:57,560 --> 00:01:59,960 Speaker 3: going to see this House majority stand together on our 32 00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:01,280 Speaker 3: principle and we're going to do. 33 00:02:01,240 --> 00:02:05,120 Speaker 1: That, Megan. The interim funding plan managed to pass with 34 00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:09,000 Speaker 1: real bipartisan support just three days before the deadline. More 35 00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:13,000 Speaker 1: Democrats supported it than Republicans. In fact, who actually voted yes, 36 00:02:13,160 --> 00:02:15,600 Speaker 1: who voted against it? And how did the reaction from 37 00:02:15,600 --> 00:02:18,520 Speaker 1: the Freedom Caucus differ from the last time a speaker 38 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:20,600 Speaker 1: tried this, Kevin McCarthy. 39 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:23,880 Speaker 2: It's interesting if you look at the vote tally from 40 00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:27,720 Speaker 2: this spending bill, it is nearly identical to the vote 41 00:02:27,720 --> 00:02:31,680 Speaker 2: tally from the interim spending bill that got Kevin McCarthy 42 00:02:31,760 --> 00:02:35,560 Speaker 2: ousted as Speaker of the House just a few weeks ago. 43 00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:39,960 Speaker 2: The hardliners in the House, these ultra conservatives, the ones 44 00:02:40,000 --> 00:02:43,800 Speaker 2: who've been pushing for deep spending cuts, particularly to domestic 45 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:47,080 Speaker 2: spending accounts, something in the order of thirty percent to 46 00:02:47,160 --> 00:02:50,360 Speaker 2: some of these accounts, are predominantly the ones who voted 47 00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:55,200 Speaker 2: against this measure. Mike Johnson was, once upon a time, 48 00:02:55,280 --> 00:02:58,360 Speaker 2: when he was just a member of the Republican rank 49 00:02:58,360 --> 00:03:02,240 Speaker 2: and file, one of those hardliners who voted against the 50 00:03:02,360 --> 00:03:06,920 Speaker 2: last interim spending bill. However, he of course supported this measure, 51 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:11,720 Speaker 2: and unlike with McCarthy, who hardliners said that they did 52 00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:15,359 Speaker 2: not trust from the get go, the ultra conservatives are 53 00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:18,920 Speaker 2: seemingly willing to give Mike Johnson the benefit of the 54 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:22,120 Speaker 2: doubt and let him get used to the job, which 55 00:03:22,120 --> 00:03:25,600 Speaker 2: he's been in for just about three weeks at this point. 56 00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:30,000 Speaker 1: Began. You also mentioned the legislation leaves out some very 57 00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:34,120 Speaker 1: important things, including a funding for Israel or Ukraine. What 58 00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:35,920 Speaker 1: happens next on those battles. 59 00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:39,880 Speaker 2: That is something that lawmakers in both chambers are trying 60 00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:43,840 Speaker 2: to suss out right now. They're eager to leave town 61 00:03:44,080 --> 00:03:48,320 Speaker 2: for the Thanksgiving holiday, so it is unlikely to happen 62 00:03:48,760 --> 00:03:54,160 Speaker 2: funding for either Israel or for Ukraine before December. However, 63 00:03:54,560 --> 00:03:58,320 Speaker 2: the House has passed its own Israel Aid package, which 64 00:03:58,400 --> 00:04:02,840 Speaker 2: was separate from Ukraine Aid. However, that's drawn some significant 65 00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:05,960 Speaker 2: backlash from Democrats due to how they wanted to go 66 00:04:06,040 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 2: about paying for it. Democrats have also wanted to link 67 00:04:10,040 --> 00:04:14,280 Speaker 2: Israel Aid to Ukraine Aid. Israel Aid has pretty widespread 68 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:18,720 Speaker 2: bipartisan support in both chambers of Congress, whereas there is 69 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:23,120 Speaker 2: some strong opposition, particularly from ultra conservatives in the House 70 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:26,600 Speaker 2: and a few in the Senate as well, to Ukraine Aid, 71 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:30,880 Speaker 2: so that one is certainly the more uncertain of the 72 00:04:30,920 --> 00:04:35,200 Speaker 2: two sixty one billion dollars that the Biden administration requested, 73 00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:38,920 Speaker 2: and Speaker Johnson has said this is something that he's 74 00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:42,479 Speaker 2: going to take up, but there are members of the 75 00:04:42,520 --> 00:04:46,440 Speaker 2: House Freedom Caucus who are really pushing back against that. 76 00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:49,960 Speaker 2: So we're likely going to see there try to be 77 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:54,480 Speaker 2: some kind of consensus when lawmakers return later in November 78 00:04:54,680 --> 00:04:59,280 Speaker 2: or early in December to wrap Ukraine funding along with 79 00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:04,120 Speaker 2: some divisive border policies and border spending that Democrats are 80 00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:07,479 Speaker 2: sure to resist, leaving an ugly end of year showdown 81 00:05:07,640 --> 00:05:08,800 Speaker 2: on these matters. 82 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:12,240 Speaker 1: So Megan talk a little bit about Speaker Johnson's two 83 00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:16,040 Speaker 1: tiered rolling approach to the next funding deadlines. There's one 84 00:05:16,080 --> 00:05:19,839 Speaker 1: on January nineteenth for one set of programs, February second 85 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:22,680 Speaker 1: for the other. Talk about how that structure helped this 86 00:05:22,760 --> 00:05:25,520 Speaker 1: bill pass, but what they're leaving for themselves to come 87 00:05:25,560 --> 00:05:26,479 Speaker 1: back to in the new year. 88 00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 2: This approach, which was called the laddered approach, which is 89 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:33,880 Speaker 2: the first time in all of my years covering Congress 90 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:37,040 Speaker 2: that I've heard that term, and I think a lot 91 00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:39,080 Speaker 2: of us were trying to figure out what that was, 92 00:05:39,360 --> 00:05:44,200 Speaker 2: certainly when the new Speaker proposed it. But it essentially 93 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:48,279 Speaker 2: would have a two stage government shutdown in which some 94 00:05:48,360 --> 00:05:53,440 Speaker 2: of the funds expire on January nineteenth. Interestingly, January nineteenth 95 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:57,040 Speaker 2: is right in between the Iowa caucuses and the New 96 00:05:57,040 --> 00:06:01,040 Speaker 2: Hampshire primary, so it is a pretty divisive political time, 97 00:06:01,160 --> 00:06:05,320 Speaker 2: pretty important political time, at least in terms of presidential politics. 98 00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:08,839 Speaker 2: Several agencies would be lumped in there, including the Department 99 00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:12,680 Speaker 2: of Veterans Affairs, and they would shut down as they 100 00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:16,760 Speaker 2: would have on November eighteenth had this interim spending plan 101 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:21,400 Speaker 2: not come together, but then the Defense Department, most notably, 102 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:26,320 Speaker 2: would continue having funding until February. Tewod the Defense Department 103 00:06:26,600 --> 00:06:31,200 Speaker 2: budget includes about half of all federal discretionary spending, so 104 00:06:31,279 --> 00:06:35,680 Speaker 2: that is the biggest outlier out there, and it's typically 105 00:06:35,720 --> 00:06:38,960 Speaker 2: the forcing function and the vehicle as we call it, 106 00:06:39,160 --> 00:06:43,200 Speaker 2: to push other spending bills across the line. Certainly, it's 107 00:06:43,200 --> 00:06:47,800 Speaker 2: something that Republicans across the board tend to support, and 108 00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:51,880 Speaker 2: most Democrats do as well. So what we could see 109 00:06:52,000 --> 00:06:54,640 Speaker 2: essentially is a government shut down for more than half 110 00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:58,920 Speaker 2: of federal agencies in mid January, and then the Pentagon 111 00:06:59,000 --> 00:07:02,040 Speaker 2: and some others still open for just a little bit longer. 112 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:06,200 Speaker 1: Mario, a lot of us who've been paying attention to 113 00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:08,920 Speaker 1: Washington for a long time, it's pretty extraordinary to see 114 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:11,840 Speaker 1: Democrats and Republicans come together in Congress to do much 115 00:07:11,840 --> 00:07:15,760 Speaker 1: of anything, let alone past federal spending plan. But obviously 116 00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:19,640 Speaker 1: this has occurred because the Republicans among themselves can't seem 117 00:07:19,640 --> 00:07:21,640 Speaker 1: to agree on how to do that. Do you think 118 00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:24,440 Speaker 1: we are actually seeing potentially a new era of sort 119 00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:28,000 Speaker 1: of bipartisan coordination between Democrats who want to keep the 120 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:30,160 Speaker 1: government open, Republicans who want to keep the government open, 121 00:07:30,200 --> 00:07:32,400 Speaker 1: and it kind of splits off the Freedom Caucus and 122 00:07:32,440 --> 00:07:35,720 Speaker 1: the more hard right conservatives that are off to the side. 123 00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:38,080 Speaker 1: You have enough votes to pass it. Speaker Johnson just 124 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:40,560 Speaker 1: proved that this week. Are we seeing something brand new here? 125 00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:43,960 Speaker 4: I'm not sure I would take it that far just yet. 126 00:07:44,320 --> 00:07:47,040 Speaker 4: I think this would be more in the one off category. 127 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:49,400 Speaker 4: We have to keep in mind the backdrop of all 128 00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:51,800 Speaker 4: of this. We're about less than a year out from 129 00:07:51,800 --> 00:07:55,520 Speaker 4: the twenty twenty four presidential election. We've got to Megan's 130 00:07:55,560 --> 00:08:01,040 Speaker 4: point Israel, Hamaz, Ukraine, Russia. When Matt Gay and those 131 00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:03,960 Speaker 4: members of the House out at the speaker. That was 132 00:08:04,320 --> 00:08:08,680 Speaker 4: right before Hamas's attack on Israel right, which brought even 133 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:11,040 Speaker 4: more of a spotlight to this circus, if you will 134 00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:15,000 Speaker 4: here in Washington among Republicans, and that fit right into 135 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:19,360 Speaker 4: the Biden White House and Democrats plans to cast Republicans 136 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:22,000 Speaker 4: as a party unable to govern right. So it was 137 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:24,920 Speaker 4: an a on one hand, embarrassing you had the world 138 00:08:24,960 --> 00:08:27,920 Speaker 4: spotlight on this drama that was unfolding in the House, 139 00:08:28,280 --> 00:08:30,840 Speaker 4: and then you played into Democrat narratives that this is 140 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:33,240 Speaker 4: a party that's unable to govern if you give them 141 00:08:33,280 --> 00:08:36,840 Speaker 4: the keys to do so. With all of that, there 142 00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:39,720 Speaker 4: was an incentive there right to try to get this 143 00:08:39,880 --> 00:08:43,480 Speaker 4: behind them, even though the Israel Palestine funding Ukraine funding 144 00:08:43,559 --> 00:08:46,199 Speaker 4: isn't in there. To Megan's point, the Ukraine part will 145 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:48,960 Speaker 4: be a lot more contentious, But you do get the 146 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:51,720 Speaker 4: sense that Republicans wanted to quickly kind of move on 147 00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:55,720 Speaker 4: from this. They gave new Speaker Mike Johnson some of 148 00:08:55,760 --> 00:08:58,040 Speaker 4: the goodwill up front to be able to pull some 149 00:08:58,080 --> 00:09:00,800 Speaker 4: of this off right now and again just heading into 150 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:03,280 Speaker 4: the holiday season. At least for right now, it puts 151 00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:05,920 Speaker 4: to some of the optics around a party in chaos. 152 00:09:07,040 --> 00:09:09,280 Speaker 1: So, Megan, since the funding questions are now kick to 153 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:11,880 Speaker 1: late January, what else are you watching for in the 154 00:09:11,920 --> 00:09:15,000 Speaker 1: early part of twenty twenty four beyond the spending deadlines 155 00:09:15,080 --> 00:09:17,199 Speaker 1: Israel Ukraine? What are some of the other big issues 156 00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:18,760 Speaker 1: Speaker Johnson's going to have to contend with. 157 00:09:19,360 --> 00:09:23,000 Speaker 2: A possible impeachment of the United States President is certainly 158 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:25,679 Speaker 2: one thing that we will be returning to in the 159 00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:30,280 Speaker 2: new year. Speaker McCarthy, during his tenure as the leader 160 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:34,839 Speaker 2: of the House started an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden, you. 161 00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 5: Know, the months that we were gone. In the weeks, 162 00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:43,680 Speaker 5: House Republicans have uncovered serious and credible allegations into President 163 00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:50,800 Speaker 5: Biden's conduct. Taken together, these allegations paint a picture of 164 00:09:50,880 --> 00:09:52,319 Speaker 5: a culture of corruption. 165 00:09:53,160 --> 00:09:57,120 Speaker 2: There are still Republicans who are very anxious to get 166 00:09:57,120 --> 00:10:00,440 Speaker 2: back to that after a fall that has been and 167 00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:05,960 Speaker 2: consumed by battles, overspending, and a three week process to 168 00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:10,479 Speaker 2: elect a new speaker. So I see that as percolating 169 00:10:10,600 --> 00:10:14,920 Speaker 2: early next year. It's unclear whether they will go into 170 00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:19,280 Speaker 2: a full on impeachment of the president, but certainly election 171 00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:24,920 Speaker 2: year politics will propel Republicans, particularly Joe Biden's most vocal 172 00:10:25,120 --> 00:10:28,680 Speaker 2: foes on Capitol Hill, to try to dig further into 173 00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:33,480 Speaker 2: the investigation into the president's finances, into actions taken by 174 00:10:33,520 --> 00:10:37,199 Speaker 2: his son Hunter and other members of his family, and 175 00:10:37,320 --> 00:10:40,280 Speaker 2: leading to a potential vote on the House floor, and 176 00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:44,320 Speaker 2: if the impeachment did happen, certainly trial in the US Senate. 177 00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:47,760 Speaker 1: After the break, a look at the twenty twenty four 178 00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:50,680 Speaker 1: GOP candidates and what the polls are telling us about 179 00:10:50,679 --> 00:11:03,280 Speaker 1: a potential Trump Biden rematch, Mario. The twenty twenty four 180 00:11:03,400 --> 00:11:06,200 Speaker 1: primaries begin about two months from now. What are the 181 00:11:06,240 --> 00:11:09,680 Speaker 1: polls telling us about the shape of the Republican fight 182 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:10,960 Speaker 1: for the presidential nomination. 183 00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:13,719 Speaker 4: Well, right now, the polls are telling us that it's 184 00:11:13,720 --> 00:11:15,800 Speaker 4: more of a coronation than it is a primary. And 185 00:11:15,840 --> 00:11:18,880 Speaker 4: that's for ex President Donald Trump as he wages this 186 00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:20,640 Speaker 4: White House comeback bid. 187 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:24,280 Speaker 6: This election will decide whether power in America belongs to 188 00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:27,720 Speaker 6: them forever or whether it belongs to you, the men 189 00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:31,280 Speaker 6: and women who make this country great, who make this 190 00:11:31,400 --> 00:11:36,240 Speaker 6: country run. Twenty twenty four is our final battle. 191 00:11:36,559 --> 00:11:39,680 Speaker 4: He's got a wide lead in most of the primary 192 00:11:39,760 --> 00:11:41,959 Speaker 4: states over the rest of the field, and we're talking 193 00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:45,400 Speaker 4: about somewhere to the tune of forty to fifty percentage points. 194 00:11:45,720 --> 00:11:48,800 Speaker 4: In national polls, he also has a wide lead as well. 195 00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:51,440 Speaker 4: But again to your point, Craig, I mean, we're going 196 00:11:51,520 --> 00:11:56,320 Speaker 4: to see Iowa Republicans going to the polls on January fifteenth. 197 00:11:56,440 --> 00:11:58,760 Speaker 4: The pressure that's on former President Donald Trump is that 198 00:11:58,800 --> 00:12:03,640 Speaker 4: anything short of a resounding victory essentially amounts to a 199 00:12:03,679 --> 00:12:04,480 Speaker 4: moral loss. 200 00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:08,280 Speaker 1: So as we talk to these voters in the Bloomberg 201 00:12:08,400 --> 00:12:11,280 Speaker 1: News Morning consolet poll what are they telling us about 202 00:12:11,280 --> 00:12:14,400 Speaker 1: their views of current President Joe Biden and Donald Trump, 203 00:12:14,400 --> 00:12:15,840 Speaker 1: who's trying to get back to the White House. 204 00:12:16,440 --> 00:12:20,079 Speaker 4: The poll will show for the White House just discontinued frustration. 205 00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:24,120 Speaker 4: Voters ask for these kitchen table issues. Right outside of 206 00:12:24,160 --> 00:12:27,080 Speaker 4: the whole Maga movement and some of the populism and 207 00:12:27,120 --> 00:12:31,040 Speaker 4: some of the language around culture wars, there was this 208 00:12:31,160 --> 00:12:34,880 Speaker 4: feeling of two cars in a garage, everybody has food 209 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:38,400 Speaker 4: on the table, jobs manufacturing, lower cost of living, all 210 00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:42,600 Speaker 4: those things. Biden sought to do that with his legislative agenda. 211 00:12:42,679 --> 00:12:45,320 Speaker 4: And yet the frustration for the White House is the 212 00:12:45,360 --> 00:12:48,200 Speaker 4: fact that, and it bears out in our poll, is 213 00:12:48,240 --> 00:12:51,679 Speaker 4: that voters are looking at former President Donald Trump as 214 00:12:51,679 --> 00:12:54,400 Speaker 4: a preferred choice as the one that they feel most 215 00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:57,920 Speaker 4: confident about handling those issues. Craig, you may recall we 216 00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:00,960 Speaker 4: had infrastructure Week every week the White House. Biden has 217 00:13:01,000 --> 00:13:03,560 Speaker 4: a running joke about that on the campaign trail, and 218 00:13:03,640 --> 00:13:06,040 Speaker 4: yet he was able to get that across the finish line, 219 00:13:06,080 --> 00:13:09,400 Speaker 4: and voters are giving his predecessor the credit. So for 220 00:13:09,400 --> 00:13:13,520 Speaker 4: former President Trump, the salesman by nature, this is something 221 00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:16,240 Speaker 4: that he's willing to capitalize on on the campaign trail. 222 00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:20,040 Speaker 1: So the presidential elections obviously a national election fifty states, 223 00:13:20,040 --> 00:13:22,280 Speaker 1: but it really boils down to six or seven right 224 00:13:22,320 --> 00:13:25,280 Speaker 1: there in the Heartland and Mario. The Bloomberg News Morning 225 00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:28,640 Speaker 1: Console Paul focused very specifically on a handful of those states. 226 00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:31,120 Speaker 1: What states did we look at and what are the 227 00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:33,920 Speaker 1: voters in those states telling us about the race? 228 00:13:34,520 --> 00:13:40,680 Speaker 4: Yeah, we've got Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, 229 00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:44,960 Speaker 4: and Michigan are among the key swing states that we 230 00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:48,600 Speaker 4: poll in the Bloomberg Morning Consult poll. And most of 231 00:13:48,640 --> 00:13:52,280 Speaker 4: those states, I mean cumulatively, Trump has a six point 232 00:13:52,320 --> 00:13:56,880 Speaker 4: percentage lead over President Biden. What's troubling again for Democrats 233 00:13:56,960 --> 00:14:00,280 Speaker 4: is that's outside of the margin for error. And many 234 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:03,160 Speaker 4: of those states Trump has a wide lead. I'm thinking 235 00:14:03,280 --> 00:14:07,760 Speaker 4: Georgia and North Carolina for example. Michigan, he's tied there, 236 00:14:08,080 --> 00:14:10,560 Speaker 4: but again, he spent a lot of resources in time 237 00:14:10,679 --> 00:14:14,480 Speaker 4: visiting Michigan, including visiting the picket line when the UAW 238 00:14:14,640 --> 00:14:16,640 Speaker 4: workers were on strike against the Big three. 239 00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:27,520 Speaker 7: Times Wall Street didn't the middle class built the class fact, 240 00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:29,440 Speaker 7: So let's keep going. 241 00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:33,200 Speaker 4: It pretends to be at best a tough election for 242 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:37,040 Speaker 4: president Biden. At worst, it looks like he could, at 243 00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:39,800 Speaker 4: least at this point, be headed for a loss. Now, 244 00:14:39,880 --> 00:14:41,760 Speaker 4: what I will add is that the White House, when 245 00:14:41,800 --> 00:14:45,280 Speaker 4: you speak to them, what they say is that, Hey, Obama, 246 00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:48,640 Speaker 4: during this time in twenty twelve was trailing Mitt Romney. 247 00:14:48,880 --> 00:14:51,600 Speaker 4: They have time to break through with their messaging. They've 248 00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:54,440 Speaker 4: got a million dollar ad by that they're doing to 249 00:14:54,520 --> 00:14:57,720 Speaker 4: canvas the airwaves. They're trying to cally support of these 250 00:14:57,840 --> 00:15:01,720 Speaker 4: different constituencies, and that they have time on their side. 251 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:05,480 Speaker 1: Our poll also asked about a storied name in American politics, 252 00:15:05,800 --> 00:15:09,520 Speaker 1: that of Robert F. Kennedy Junior, who recently dropped his 253 00:15:09,600 --> 00:15:13,080 Speaker 1: Democratic primary bid and decided to run as an independent. 254 00:15:13,640 --> 00:15:17,240 Speaker 8: I've come here today to declare our independence from the 255 00:15:17,320 --> 00:15:22,320 Speaker 8: journey of corruption, which robs us of affordable lives, our 256 00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:25,640 Speaker 8: belief in the future, and our respect for each other. 257 00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:30,920 Speaker 8: But to do that, I must first declare my own independence, 258 00:15:32,080 --> 00:15:34,200 Speaker 8: independence from the Democratic Party. 259 00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:39,120 Speaker 1: What did our poll show about how voters feel about him? 260 00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:43,160 Speaker 1: Does he pull votes away from Biden from Trump equally? Mario? 261 00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:44,160 Speaker 1: What did the poll find? 262 00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:47,080 Speaker 4: You hit the nail on the here, Craig. That name 263 00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:50,320 Speaker 4: ID has a lot of weight, particularly in a place 264 00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:53,280 Speaker 4: like Michigan, where he was upwards of about twenty percent 265 00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:57,160 Speaker 4: or so. This is not great news for Republicans and 266 00:15:57,320 --> 00:16:02,040 Speaker 4: former President Donald Trump. You wouldn associate him necessarily with Trump, 267 00:16:02,520 --> 00:16:06,040 Speaker 4: but there's some of the stuff around COVID vaccines, etc. 268 00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:10,200 Speaker 4: That the skepticism and conspiracy theories there that kind of 269 00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:13,480 Speaker 4: streamline with parts of the MAGA base. So in some 270 00:16:13,640 --> 00:16:17,400 Speaker 4: ways you're seeing Trump and his campaign already start light 271 00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:20,480 Speaker 4: attacks on RFK Jr. As of right now, this is 272 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:23,080 Speaker 4: shaping up to be the election of the angry voter, 273 00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:26,440 Speaker 4: the election of the third party candidate, the election where 274 00:16:26,600 --> 00:16:30,320 Speaker 4: voters are searching for an alternative beyond the two party system. 275 00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:33,680 Speaker 4: And now you've got RFK Jr. You've got Cornell West, 276 00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:37,120 Speaker 4: you've got Jill Stein all jumping into the race, and 277 00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:41,240 Speaker 4: those others, the Jill Stein's, the Cornell West. And then 278 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:44,600 Speaker 4: we still have this blooming threat from the No Labels movement, 279 00:16:44,720 --> 00:16:49,040 Speaker 4: with soon to be retiring US Senator Joe Manchin possibly 280 00:16:49,160 --> 00:16:52,560 Speaker 4: teasing a campaign or bid there as well, which is 281 00:16:52,680 --> 00:16:54,160 Speaker 4: very troubling for the White House. 282 00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:58,680 Speaker 1: Mario, we talked a lot about Israel Gaza in relation 283 00:16:58,800 --> 00:17:02,040 Speaker 1: to US, but how is that as you're playing out 284 00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:03,160 Speaker 1: on the campaign trail. 285 00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:08,080 Speaker 4: Well, on the campaign trail, you're seeing staunch support for Israel. Right, 286 00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:11,360 Speaker 4: that's still as much as our politics have changed and 287 00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:15,359 Speaker 4: the Republican Party has changed, that hawkash Bent still leans 288 00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:19,359 Speaker 4: toward resounding support for Israel, the US's strongest partner in 289 00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:22,280 Speaker 4: the Middle East. There's not a whole lot of daylight 290 00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:26,439 Speaker 4: in between what the Republican candidates are arguing about in 291 00:17:26,440 --> 00:17:30,720 Speaker 4: that regard. Ultimately, the support there is pretty strong. Where 292 00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:34,639 Speaker 4: you see the daylight and policy of course, as Megan 293 00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:39,560 Speaker 4: said earlier, is just done that Ukraine Russia support as well. 294 00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:43,399 Speaker 4: Now on the Democratic side, Joe Biden has a tough 295 00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:46,120 Speaker 4: heal to climb here with this as well, because he's 296 00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:49,520 Speaker 4: taken a more traditional stance full throated support for Israel. 297 00:17:49,520 --> 00:17:51,600 Speaker 4: But you've seen a little bit more nuanced in some 298 00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:55,600 Speaker 4: of his statements over the last couple of weeks, including 299 00:17:55,640 --> 00:18:00,600 Speaker 4: some key administration officials taking Israel Prime Minister I who 300 00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:03,720 Speaker 4: a bit to task on the heavy handed approach to 301 00:18:03,760 --> 00:18:07,320 Speaker 4: the retaliatory attacks and the Gaza strip. The reason being 302 00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:10,640 Speaker 4: is the domestic politics are shifting quite a bit, so 303 00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:13,560 Speaker 4: you're seeing Biden try to figure out a way to 304 00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:17,720 Speaker 4: both keep this traditional stance in US support for Key ally, 305 00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:21,199 Speaker 4: but also having faced the necessity of this happening at 306 00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:24,240 Speaker 4: a point where he needs to colly support to generate momentum. 307 00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:26,600 Speaker 4: Going back to those polls we mentioned, as he heads 308 00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:29,440 Speaker 4: toward twenty twenty four with all parts of the Democratic 309 00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:30,720 Speaker 4: base walking lockstep. 310 00:18:31,560 --> 00:18:34,480 Speaker 1: We've talked a lot about Biden, Trump, even Robert F. Kennedy, 311 00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:37,080 Speaker 1: But I want to ask Megan about another senator who 312 00:18:37,160 --> 00:18:39,000 Speaker 1: recently dropped out of the race. You know, there's a 313 00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:41,720 Speaker 1: joke in Washington every senator looks in the mirror and 314 00:18:41,760 --> 00:18:43,960 Speaker 1: s he's a president. While one who might have was 315 00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:47,120 Speaker 1: named Tim Scott from South Carolina, who recently dropped out 316 00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:48,960 Speaker 1: of the race. I have to say I thought he 317 00:18:49,040 --> 00:18:51,000 Speaker 1: might get a little more attraction than he did. Why 318 00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:52,000 Speaker 1: do you think he fell short? 319 00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:55,400 Speaker 2: Tim Scott? I think came across on the campaign trail 320 00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:58,600 Speaker 2: as a bit wooden, and that has been essentially his 321 00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:03,040 Speaker 2: demeanor on Capitol Hill. He's never been a senator who 322 00:19:03,119 --> 00:19:06,000 Speaker 2: wants to stop and chat in the hallways. It's never 323 00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:09,840 Speaker 2: been a senator who comes in with a tremendous personality, 324 00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:13,919 Speaker 2: makes jokes or really has ever kind of felt at home, 325 00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:17,840 Speaker 2: I think beyond the day to day happenings as a senator. 326 00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:21,600 Speaker 2: And I think you saw that on the presidential campaign 327 00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:24,520 Speaker 2: trail as well. 328 00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:27,240 Speaker 1: So let's talk about the other candidate and the Republican 329 00:19:27,320 --> 00:19:29,080 Speaker 1: race who is getting a lot of attention right now, 330 00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:31,800 Speaker 1: and that's Nikki Haley, also from South Carolina, was the 331 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:34,760 Speaker 1: governor there, of course, probably best known to most Americans 332 00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:37,160 Speaker 1: as are you an ambassador under Donald Trump? 333 00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:37,360 Speaker 7: There? 334 00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:39,639 Speaker 9: I first like to say, they're five inch shields and 335 00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:43,119 Speaker 9: I don't wear them unless you can run on them. 336 00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:45,679 Speaker 8: We've got two of you on school. 337 00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:48,840 Speaker 9: Second thing that I will say is I wear a 338 00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:51,679 Speaker 9: heels or not for a fashion statement? There for ammunition. 339 00:19:52,480 --> 00:19:55,720 Speaker 1: She is definitely seems to have edged out Rond De Santis, 340 00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:58,080 Speaker 1: the Florida governor, for the number two spot, or certainly 341 00:19:58,119 --> 00:20:00,600 Speaker 1: the polls will suggest that she's it's starting to take 342 00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:02,840 Speaker 1: some donors away from other candidates, including you know, some 343 00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:04,439 Speaker 1: of the Tim Scott folks who are looking for a 344 00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:07,080 Speaker 1: place to spend their money. Mario tell us about Nicki 345 00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:09,920 Speaker 1: Haley's appeal to Republican voters and where do you think 346 00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:10,720 Speaker 1: it goes from here? 347 00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:14,280 Speaker 4: Nicki Haley in some ways as an outlier. Right, she 348 00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:18,240 Speaker 4: started off pretty low in the polls and has used 349 00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:21,320 Speaker 4: that as a way to get her message out, which 350 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:26,720 Speaker 4: is a little bit more toward traditional Republican values. She's 351 00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:30,280 Speaker 4: not dodged the issue of abortion. She's used that in 352 00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:33,480 Speaker 4: a personal way or her standing as a UN ambassador. 353 00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:36,760 Speaker 4: She's been able to tout some of her foreign policy 354 00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:40,639 Speaker 4: bona fides and articulate that in ways that Ron DeSantis 355 00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:44,520 Speaker 4: and Tim Scott haven't. She's just been really sharp with 356 00:20:44,560 --> 00:20:46,879 Speaker 4: the one liners and the heat of the moment as well, 357 00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:50,440 Speaker 4: just winning those moments that we have in the debate, right, 358 00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:54,479 Speaker 4: those moments against Vivet Ramaswami, those moments against Tim Scott, 359 00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:58,320 Speaker 4: and those moments against Ron DeSantis, and it's caught Donor's attention, 360 00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:00,800 Speaker 4: and now you're seeing them kind of lying up behind her, 361 00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:05,200 Speaker 4: and wonder if after eight years, this person who may 362 00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:08,399 Speaker 4: finally be able to snatch the scepter from Trump and 363 00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:12,480 Speaker 4: move on to a more familiar brand of Republicanism may 364 00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:13,200 Speaker 4: be emerging. 365 00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:14,040 Speaker 1: Now. 366 00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:18,639 Speaker 4: Again, the caveat is that she's down about forty points 367 00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:21,800 Speaker 4: or so, but this is one of the things that's 368 00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:24,320 Speaker 4: tantalizing for donors and voters alike. 369 00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:27,240 Speaker 1: Thank you, Megan, and thank you Mario. 370 00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:29,159 Speaker 4: Thanks, thank you. 371 00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:32,399 Speaker 1: When we come back, a look at the latest on 372 00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:44,720 Speaker 1: former President Donald Trump's legal battles. The flurry of court 373 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:47,639 Speaker 1: cases involving former President Donald Trump have been top of 374 00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:50,000 Speaker 1: mind this week as Trump and his family testify in 375 00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:52,600 Speaker 1: New York. There has also been movement in the DC 376 00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:55,879 Speaker 1: election interference case and a decision on timing in the 377 00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:59,320 Speaker 1: Florida case involving classified documents. Here to bring us up 378 00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:02,120 Speaker 1: to speed on a Trump's legal battles is Bloomberg Legal 379 00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:06,000 Speaker 1: reporter Zoe Tilman. Zoe tell us about the origin of 380 00:22:06,040 --> 00:22:09,160 Speaker 1: these Fourteenth Amendment cases that are popping up across the country. 381 00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 1: Where are these challenges taking place, what is their basis, 382 00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:14,480 Speaker 1: and what do they hope to accomplish. 383 00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:17,679 Speaker 10: So the section of the Fourteenth Amendment that we're dealing 384 00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:21,520 Speaker 10: with here was adopted after the Civil War. It was 385 00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:25,000 Speaker 10: part of an effort by Congress to deal with members 386 00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:28,400 Speaker 10: of the Confederacy who wanted back in to politics and 387 00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:30,600 Speaker 10: what to do with them, and it was mostly to 388 00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:34,760 Speaker 10: initially at least bar them from holding office again because 389 00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:38,119 Speaker 10: of their role in an insurrection, but after the reconstruction 390 00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:40,840 Speaker 10: period really was dormant for a long time, and then 391 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:44,879 Speaker 10: after the January sixth attack on the Capitol, it began 392 00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:48,400 Speaker 10: as a mostly academic exercise with legal scholars saying, hey, 393 00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:52,119 Speaker 10: this language is still here, and if we're talking about 394 00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:55,719 Speaker 10: the attack as an insurrection, are people like Donald Trump 395 00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:58,679 Speaker 10: who played a role in trying to overturn the election 396 00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:03,440 Speaker 10: inspireing the riot, are they potentially covered by this and 397 00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:07,040 Speaker 10: barred from holding office again? And that has now moved 398 00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:10,359 Speaker 10: in the past few months from a mostly academic conversation 399 00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:14,200 Speaker 10: to one that is landing in courtrooms across the country. 400 00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:18,560 Speaker 10: So there have been several dozen cases filed, many dismissed 401 00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:23,160 Speaker 10: for really early procedural deficiencies, just not gone very far. 402 00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:26,480 Speaker 10: But there are a handful that have made it past 403 00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:31,840 Speaker 10: those early challenges and they're essentially saying January sixth was 404 00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:37,320 Speaker 10: an insurrection. This language can apply to someone like former 405 00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:39,639 Speaker 10: President Donald Trump and the role that he played in 406 00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:43,320 Speaker 10: allegedly inciting the riot, even if he wasn't there storming 407 00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:47,439 Speaker 10: the Capitol, and that he shouldn't appear on ballots in 408 00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:52,040 Speaker 10: either primary or general elections because he is constitutionally ineligible 409 00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:55,160 Speaker 10: to hold office, just like if he was twenty years 410 00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:58,359 Speaker 10: old and running for the presidency. They're saying it's the 411 00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:02,679 Speaker 10: same thing. Trump is raising a number of defenses against this, 412 00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:06,119 Speaker 10: some of which are that it can't apply to a 413 00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:10,399 Speaker 10: former president, it can't apply to the presidency, wasn't an insurrection. 414 00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:13,159 Speaker 10: And then if we get to the merits, his lawyers 415 00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:15,720 Speaker 10: are arguing that what he did is not engaging in 416 00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:20,359 Speaker 10: an insurrection, that he was engaging in political speech, political advocacy, 417 00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:25,240 Speaker 10: and this is not the kind of conduct that this language, 418 00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:28,120 Speaker 10: assuming it is even viable, was meant to cover. 419 00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:33,320 Speaker 1: Earlier this week, a fourteenth Amendment case in Michigan was 420 00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:35,800 Speaker 1: thrown out on the grounds that Michigan Secretary of State 421 00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:38,640 Speaker 1: doesn't have the power to keep the former president off 422 00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:42,679 Speaker 1: the ballot. But there are active cases in Minnesota and Colorado. 423 00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:45,800 Speaker 1: Let's take them one at a time. Zoe, tell us 424 00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:47,200 Speaker 1: what's happening in Minnesota. 425 00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:50,520 Speaker 10: The Minnesota case was not the first one filed, but 426 00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:54,399 Speaker 10: leapfrogged ahead a bit in terms of status. It was 427 00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:58,000 Speaker 10: because of differences in state law across the country when 428 00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:00,800 Speaker 10: it comes to elections. It was filed right away in 429 00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:03,119 Speaker 10: the Minnesota Supreme Court, so they took it right to 430 00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:07,280 Speaker 10: the top. And what the justices did after hearing arguments 431 00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:09,480 Speaker 10: was they kind of kicked the can down the road 432 00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:12,600 Speaker 10: and they basically said, we're going to dismiss this because 433 00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:17,640 Speaker 10: for the primary election, this is not really a substantive 434 00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:22,639 Speaker 10: election contest. This is a political exercise that state election 435 00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:27,240 Speaker 10: officials basically help the major parties with where they administer 436 00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:30,760 Speaker 10: a primary to help them choose a nominee who will 437 00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:34,639 Speaker 10: run in the general election, and that's where constitutional eligibility 438 00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:37,760 Speaker 10: is a more salient issue. So it was a very 439 00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:41,800 Speaker 10: short opinion after very lengthy briefing and arguments, and the 440 00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:44,960 Speaker 10: justice is said, but if he's the nominee and this 441 00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:47,560 Speaker 10: is still a live issue as we're heading into the 442 00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:50,879 Speaker 10: general election, you can come back to us and maybe 443 00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:55,919 Speaker 10: we'll actually engage with these really difficult, sticky, substantive questions 444 00:25:56,080 --> 00:25:57,440 Speaker 10: around the fourteenth Amendment. 445 00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:00,920 Speaker 1: Zoe, tell us what's happening in the Colorado case. 446 00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:05,440 Speaker 10: This isn't a Denver District court state court where we've 447 00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:08,679 Speaker 10: essentially just finished a full on trial on this issue, 448 00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:11,080 Speaker 10: where the judge had rejected a lot of Trump's sort 449 00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:15,480 Speaker 10: of initial procedural challenges to how this case was playing out, 450 00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:20,480 Speaker 10: and heard evidence and witnesses and testimony on all of 451 00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:22,959 Speaker 10: these different issues that we've just been talking about. What 452 00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:27,040 Speaker 10: is an insurrection? Was January sixth and insurrection? What role 453 00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:30,399 Speaker 10: did he play and was it engaging in an insurrection? 454 00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:33,040 Speaker 10: And can it even apply to the president? And the 455 00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:36,880 Speaker 10: judge there is poised to rule in the coming weeks, 456 00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:40,120 Speaker 10: and it is expected to be the first time since 457 00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:43,640 Speaker 10: Minnesota petered out that we get some kind of substantive 458 00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:47,680 Speaker 10: ruling on these issues. At that point, whoever loses can 459 00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:50,639 Speaker 10: take it up to the Colorado Supreme Court, and then 460 00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:53,399 Speaker 10: whoever loses there can take it to the US Supreme Court. 461 00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:57,040 Speaker 10: So it could move quite quickly if they're trying to 462 00:26:57,119 --> 00:27:01,040 Speaker 10: get a ruling before the Secretary of State in Colorado 463 00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:04,560 Speaker 10: is printing primary ballots. I think everyone has discussed in 464 00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:08,080 Speaker 10: these hearings how there is a schedule that they have 465 00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:11,359 Speaker 10: to deal with and an election, and everyone knows that 466 00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:14,040 Speaker 10: someone might want to take this to the Supreme Court, 467 00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:19,920 Speaker 10: So that's in the back of everyone's minds at this point. 468 00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:22,680 Speaker 1: Well, the President and his lawyers are in a variety 469 00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:25,280 Speaker 1: of other courthouses around the country right now one right 470 00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:28,280 Speaker 1: here in New York City, where his daughter Avanka Trump 471 00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:30,240 Speaker 1: had to take the stand a few days after the 472 00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:33,000 Speaker 1: former president himself took the stand. What did we learn 473 00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:36,040 Speaker 1: from Avanka Trump's testimony and where does that case stand 474 00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:36,520 Speaker 1: right now? 475 00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:40,440 Speaker 10: What she basically testified was that she was not involved 476 00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:44,560 Speaker 10: in preparing a lot of the personal financial statements that 477 00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:46,800 Speaker 10: are at the heart of this case where Donald Trump 478 00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:50,280 Speaker 10: is being accused of inflating his assets to get better 479 00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:55,080 Speaker 10: loan terms and that that defrauded financial institutions. But she 480 00:27:55,160 --> 00:28:01,120 Speaker 10: did testify about her work securing loans for the properties, 481 00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:03,280 Speaker 10: some of the properties that were at issue that in 482 00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:07,960 Speaker 10: some cases were based on what his personal financial net 483 00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:11,159 Speaker 10: worth looked like. So it was, I think trying to 484 00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:15,240 Speaker 10: walk a line, it seemed, between acknowledging the work that 485 00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:18,320 Speaker 10: she did and is documented on behalf of the organization, 486 00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:24,080 Speaker 10: but distancing herself from the core financial statements for Donald 487 00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:27,480 Speaker 10: Trump personally that are really at issue in this case. 488 00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:31,280 Speaker 1: Switching down to Washington, d C. The Special Council, Jack 489 00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:34,879 Speaker 1: Smith also as a variety of court filings recently that 490 00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:38,360 Speaker 1: attempt to put Trump right in the center of the activities. 491 00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:41,120 Speaker 1: On January sixth, up on Capitol Hill tell us where 492 00:28:41,120 --> 00:28:42,200 Speaker 1: the Special Council's headed. 493 00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:44,560 Speaker 10: Well, there are a couple of big fights, but one 494 00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:47,400 Speaker 10: of the biggest ones that's most imminent has to do 495 00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:50,320 Speaker 10: with the gag order that the former president is under 496 00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:54,360 Speaker 10: in DC, where he's barred from talking about Jack Smith, 497 00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:58,719 Speaker 10: the Special Council, about witnesses and their testimony in court staff. 498 00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:00,520 Speaker 10: And there's going to be a big appear Sills Court 499 00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:04,280 Speaker 10: showdown over that in the next week or so. We 500 00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:08,960 Speaker 10: also have Jack Smith and prosecutors pushing back on Donald 501 00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:12,960 Speaker 10: Trump's many motions to get the indictment and the different 502 00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:17,360 Speaker 10: counts dismissed. The biggest issue is is he entitled to 503 00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:21,960 Speaker 10: presidential immunity against this entire case. Prosecutors say absolutely not. 504 00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:25,520 Speaker 10: But he's also lodging a number of other contests to 505 00:29:26,040 --> 00:29:31,280 Speaker 10: different counts in the indictment and also accusing prosecutors of 506 00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:37,840 Speaker 10: using inflammatory, irrelevant language to talk about January sixth in 507 00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:40,720 Speaker 10: the riot itself, that the defense says is just aimed 508 00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:43,880 Speaker 10: at inflaming public opinion. And so right now there's just 509 00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:47,440 Speaker 10: a flurry of papers going back and forth, both in 510 00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:50,280 Speaker 10: the trial court level and also at the appeals court level. 511 00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:51,040 Speaker 10: On the gag order. 512 00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:55,720 Speaker 1: We can finish up in Florida, where the president spends 513 00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:58,000 Speaker 1: most of his time. It is mar A lago A state. 514 00:29:58,320 --> 00:30:01,280 Speaker 1: The judge there recently talked a little bit about the calendar. 515 00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:03,400 Speaker 1: Why don't you tell us how that trial is shaping up. 516 00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:06,360 Speaker 10: So that was a trial date that we had, which 517 00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:10,600 Speaker 10: was May twentieth, now seems very much in jeopardy. Trump's 518 00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:13,880 Speaker 10: lawyers have accused prosecutors of dragging their feet on turning 519 00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:17,440 Speaker 10: over evidence. They've said that the classified evidence in that 520 00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:20,520 Speaker 10: case is voluminous and complex, and that there have been 521 00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:24,000 Speaker 10: access issues. The government has really pushed back on how 522 00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:27,800 Speaker 10: the defense has described some of these issues and said 523 00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:30,480 Speaker 10: that this is puffery and he's just trying to kick 524 00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:33,160 Speaker 10: it down the road as much as he can. So 525 00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:35,280 Speaker 10: the judge said, I'm not going to deal with the 526 00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:39,880 Speaker 10: trial date yet, but she reset a number of deadlines 527 00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:42,480 Speaker 10: on other issues in the case that seemed to make 528 00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:46,240 Speaker 10: it all but impossible to stick with that May twentieth trial. 529 00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:49,400 Speaker 10: And what Donald Trump ultimately wants is to get this 530 00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:54,240 Speaker 10: past November, past the general election. Whether the judge ends 531 00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:57,040 Speaker 10: up doing that remains to be seen, but what she 532 00:30:57,200 --> 00:31:01,360 Speaker 10: did was set a hearing for March. She said, let's 533 00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:04,400 Speaker 10: talk about the trial schedule then. But given the amount 534 00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:07,400 Speaker 10: of delay that she's built in, it does seem quite 535 00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:10,239 Speaker 10: unlikely that they're going to stick with May twentieth as 536 00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:10,680 Speaker 10: a trial. 537 00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:13,760 Speaker 1: And this, of course is the case on the classified 538 00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:17,280 Speaker 1: documents that the president allegedly had in his possession at 539 00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:19,400 Speaker 1: mar A Lago. So you're covering all of these cases 540 00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:22,240 Speaker 1: of the four, and we didn't talk about Fulton County, Georgia, 541 00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:24,440 Speaker 1: which the one you're paying the most attention to, the 542 00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:26,480 Speaker 1: one that you think post is the most legal peril 543 00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:27,400 Speaker 1: to the former president. 544 00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:30,280 Speaker 10: I think that question is hard to answer. Each one 545 00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:34,760 Speaker 10: rises and falls given different events. Georgia was quiet for 546 00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:37,920 Speaker 10: a while, that's the state election obstruction case, and then 547 00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:41,720 Speaker 10: suddenly four co defendants of the former presidents took guilty 548 00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:46,080 Speaker 10: please including some of his former top campaign lawyers. And 549 00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:49,440 Speaker 10: does that increase the amount of jeopardy that he faces 550 00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:54,080 Speaker 10: in Georgia issues? In the DC case, the federal election case, 551 00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:57,800 Speaker 10: things were on track, and then he argues he's entitled 552 00:31:57,840 --> 00:32:00,720 Speaker 10: to total immunity and that the entire case should be 553 00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:03,600 Speaker 10: put on hold until that's litigated, potentially up to the 554 00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:07,280 Speaker 10: Supreme Court, so we have at different times, each case 555 00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:11,880 Speaker 10: presents new twists and turns. None have unfolded on sort 556 00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:14,480 Speaker 10: of a regular, normal, predictable path. 557 00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:17,520 Speaker 1: Thank you so much for that, so we really appreciate it. 558 00:32:17,600 --> 00:32:19,960 Speaker 10: Thanks for having me on, Thanks. 559 00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:21,840 Speaker 1: For listening to us here at The Big Take. It's 560 00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:25,960 Speaker 1: a daily podcast from Bloomberg and iHeartRadio. For more shows 561 00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:30,880 Speaker 1: from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever 562 00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:33,680 Speaker 1: you listen. We'd love to hear from you. Email us 563 00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:37,560 Speaker 1: questions or comments to Big Take at Bloomberg dot net. 564 00:32:38,080 --> 00:32:41,200 Speaker 1: The supervising producer of The Big Take is Vicky Verrgalina. 565 00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:46,400 Speaker 1: Our senior producer is Catherine Fink. Sam Gebauer produced this episode. 566 00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:51,160 Speaker 1: Raphael mcilely is our engineer. Our original music was composed 567 00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:54,440 Speaker 1: by Leo Sidrin. I'm Craig Gordon. We'll be taking a 568 00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:57,360 Speaker 1: break next week for Thanksgiving here in the US. We'll 569 00:32:57,400 --> 00:33:00,560 Speaker 1: return on November twenty seventh with new episodes. Have a 570 00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:01,240 Speaker 1: great holiday.