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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. From the red carpet arrivals to

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Speaker 1: glamorous after parties.

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Speaker 2: It's the most magical night of the year.

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Speaker 1: And today the Action Network honors Hollywood the best way

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Speaker 1: we know how by helping you profit up the monumental

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Speaker 1: creative achievements of others.

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Speaker 2: And what's more Hollywood than that. Let's gamble on the

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Speaker 2: Academy Awards.

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Speaker 1: What's up, everybody? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm

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Speaker 1: your host, Chris Raybon, and today I am joined by

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Speaker 1: fellow OSCAR betting expert Cowed Witchurch.

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Speaker 3: You can find him on social.

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Speaker 1: Media at cow hit Church, No Spaces, and we're going

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Speaker 1: to discuss the ninety seventh Annual Academy Awards. We're going

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Speaker 1: to go through all the key categories, the best, any

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Speaker 1: long shots we like, and some of the more obscure categories.

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Speaker 3: That's some talk we like as well.

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Speaker 1: Colin's got some exotics for you, so should be a

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Speaker 1: good show.

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Speaker 3: Buckle up, Colin.

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Speaker 2: How's it going going great? Chris, I'm so excited to

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Speaker 2: be here. About a month ago, the NFL had their

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl. That's your Super Bowl. As one of the

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Speaker 2: top NFL betting analysts in the game. This is my

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Speaker 2: super Bowl. The Oscars are my super Bowl. I've been

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Speaker 2: tracking this stuff for months every year for almost two

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Speaker 2: decades now, so I'm ready to get down here, discuss

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Speaker 2: all of these categories and hopefully make some money along

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Speaker 2: the way.

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Speaker 1: I'm excited too. This is always a nice come down

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Speaker 1: from you know, I specialize in the NFL for people

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Speaker 1: that don't know me, so this is always kind of

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Speaker 1: a nice come down to model something completely unrelated and

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Speaker 1: just kind of bet a market that's completely unrelated, but

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Speaker 1: a lot of fun and you get to see some

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Speaker 1: cool films along the way. So we're gonna get into it.

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Speaker 1: We'll start with the with the top eight categor and

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Speaker 1: then we'll go from there. We do have a lot

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Speaker 1: of bets, so a lot to get to before we

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Speaker 1: dive in to the category starting with best Picture. Just

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Speaker 1: a heads up that we're gonna be referencing a platform

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Speaker 1: called Caushi Today a lot in this episode, and Koshi

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Speaker 1: is in a sports book. It is the only legal

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Speaker 1: prediction market in the United States, so it's a platform

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Speaker 1: that's more with the stock market. It's legal, it's available

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Speaker 1: in all fifty states. I think there are still fifty

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Speaker 1: states right for now. So on Koshi you deal in

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Speaker 1: trades instead of bets. You can buy positions at different percentages.

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Speaker 1: Something I really like about Cawshi is that you don't

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Speaker 1: even see odds. You see straight up percentages. Very helpful there.

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Speaker 1: And when a market like Academy Award for Best Picture settles,

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Speaker 1: when the oscars finally given out, the losers moved to

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Speaker 1: zero percent and the winning position moves to one hundred percent.

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Speaker 1: If you were on the position, then you cash. So

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Speaker 1: very similar tore betting, but you're just using the implied

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Speaker 1: probabilities instead of American odds. So for example, if you

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Speaker 1: buy a best Pitcher candidate at twenty percent, but that

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Speaker 1: position goes to forty percent by Saturday night, you can

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Speaker 1: sell your position and take all of that profit right

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Speaker 1: away without even waiting for the awards ceremony.

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Speaker 3: So very cool stuff.

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Speaker 1: And because we were doing this episode anyway, we ask

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Speaker 1: Calshi for a promo code.

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Speaker 3: So if you sign up a deposit and.

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Speaker 1: very cool. And again I think the key is it

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Speaker 1: is legal and available in every single United States, and

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Speaker 1: the amount of markets that you can bet, I think

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Speaker 1: it'll blow your mind. So to check out Caushi that's

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Speaker 1: Ka l s Hi. All right, let's start off with

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Speaker 1: the Best Pitcher nominees, Colin. It looks like a three

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Speaker 1: film race at this point. So if we look at

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Speaker 1: the Calshi percentages, we have Anura in the lead sixty

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Speaker 1: four percent, Conclave at twenty three percent, and the Brutalist

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Speaker 1: at fourteen percent. What are your thoughts on the field

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Speaker 1: here and specifically these three films? How do you think

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Speaker 1: it's going to play out?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so I'll do a little bit of stage setting

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Speaker 2: here before I get into my pick. You know, months

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Speaker 2: ago this category, the Brutalist was the runaway favorite in

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Speaker 2: this category, probably entering the New Year, which was kind

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Speaker 2: of the official start of Awards season, right before the

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Speaker 2: Golden Globes. You can see the Brutalist favorite in the

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Speaker 2: minus two to fifty to minus three hundred range. Honora

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Speaker 2: was trending in like the third and fourth position. And

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Speaker 2: then late January happened. It was the weekend of the

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Speaker 2: NFL's conference championship game. While we were watching the Chiefs

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Speaker 2: Destroy the Bills, hopes and dreams. Three big award shows happened,

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Speaker 2: the Critics' Choice Awards, the Producer's Guild Awards, and the

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Speaker 2: Director's Guild Awards. Anora won all three. It wasn't expected

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Speaker 2: to win all three. I don't think it was expected

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Speaker 2: to win one. But it won all three, and it

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Speaker 2: immediately jumped to the front of the line as the favorite.

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Speaker 2: Twelve of the fifteen films to win all three of

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Speaker 2: those awards, the CCA, the PGA, and the DJA have

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Speaker 2: won Best Picture. Andora also won the Writers Guild Awards importantly,

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Speaker 2: and the only film to win at the guilds for

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Speaker 2: the Writers, the producers, and Directors and Lou's Best Picture

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Speaker 2: was Broke Back Mountain. It's only happened once now. That

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Speaker 2: has obviously led to a ton of norm momentum. The

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Speaker 2: other film that has gained momentum at the brutalist expense

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Speaker 2: is Conclave. It won Best Picture at the Bath Does

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Speaker 2: It won the top prize at the Screen Actors Guild.

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Speaker 2: Seven of the nine films to win both of those

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Speaker 2: have won Best Picture. So whoever wins Best Picture here

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Speaker 2: it's going to be It's going to break a streak

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Speaker 2: of certainty in the other direction. There's a recent comparison

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Speaker 2: here in twenty eighteen three billboards outside of Abings, Missouri,

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Speaker 2: one of the bath does and at the Sag Shape

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Speaker 2: of Water won both the Producers and Directors Guilds. Best

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Speaker 2: Picture wentto Shape of Water. That's a point in Nora's favor.

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Speaker 2: I want to talk a little bit about the Brutalist.

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Speaker 2: As I mentioned, the momentum has gone completely against the

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Speaker 2: Brutalist over the last two months. But I think that

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Speaker 2: there is a path here to the Brutalist winning, and

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Speaker 2: I think it is probably worth a sprinkle. Even if

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Speaker 2: your primary bet remains on a Nora, there's a good

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Speaker 2: chance that the Brutalist cleans up a little bit. In

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Speaker 2: some of the technical categories, It's favored to win Best

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Speaker 2: and Mitography, Best Original Score. It has a shot in

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Speaker 2: a couple other categories, like Best Film Editing. It's also

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Speaker 2: the favorite for Best Actor, which we'll talk about here

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Speaker 2: in a little bit. The only Best Picture that the

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Speaker 2: Brutalist won at any of these major televised precursor awards

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Speaker 2: was The Golden Globes, which doesn't really have much parallel

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Speaker 2: with the Academy's voting anymore. There is a comparative example

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Speaker 2: of this happening, though, like I mentioned twenty eighteen with

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Speaker 2: the Baptism sag against the PGA and DJ. In twenty

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Speaker 2: seventeen Moonlight, everyone remembers everyone who watched the Oscars remembers

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Speaker 2: the famous Moonlight moon Light Lala Land moment in twenty

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Speaker 2: seventeen Moonlight one at the Golden Globes. Every other award

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Speaker 2: show was won by Lala Land, with the exception of

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Speaker 2: I Think One was won by hidden Figures entering the

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Speaker 2: Oscars that the day of the Oscars, Moonlight was around

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Speaker 2: plus five p fifty to win Best Picture, Lala Land

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Speaker 2: was in the minus six hundred range. And if you

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Speaker 2: go to gold Derby, which I know you're going to

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Speaker 2: cite quite a bit today, Chris thirty five of the

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Speaker 2: thirty seven experts and editors at gold Derby picked Lala

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Speaker 2: Land to win Best Picture that year. As we all know,

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Speaker 2: Moonlight one best Picture. So, like I said, everything is

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Speaker 2: pointing toward a nor win. I think that in the

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Speaker 2: minus two hundred range of Nora is actually worth a bet.

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Speaker 2: Probably the primary portion of whatever you're going to a

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Speaker 2: lot toward best picture, but the brutal is sitting in

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Speaker 2: that plus seven hundred range. I think that's certainly worth

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Speaker 2: a sprinkle. I bought it on call She when it

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Speaker 2: was at thirteen percent, just in case, you know, we

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Speaker 2: see a shaker on Sunday night. I will also say

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Speaker 2: that the correlated odds here don't really make a lot

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Speaker 2: of sense. If you're saying thirteen percent plus seven hundred

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Speaker 2: based on the percentage chance that it has, that doesn't

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Speaker 2: really add up. But that's going to be the case

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Speaker 2: a lot. In Oscar betting, it's a lot different from

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Speaker 2: sports betting. There's a winner and then everyone else is

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Speaker 2: a loser, and you don't even know how close your

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Speaker 2: bet came to winning. You can't say like, oh, you know,

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Speaker 2: I bet this guy to go over seventy rushing yards

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Speaker 2: and sixty nine and a half and there's bad luck happened,

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Speaker 2: so I didn't win. That's not the case in Oscar voting.

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Speaker 2: There is no almost in Oscar voting. These votes have

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Speaker 2: already happened. We just have to wait to find out.

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Speaker 2: So there's a lot of uncertainty here. There's a lot

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Speaker 2: of uncertainty this year. In general, it's one of the

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Speaker 2: most uncertain Oscar years I've come across in a long time.

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Speaker 2: We'll get to that in a lot of categories here,

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Speaker 2: but yeah, Anora, rightful, deserving favorite. I think the Brutalist

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Speaker 2: has a little bit better chance than people expect. Conclave.

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Speaker 2: Who knows. I think you're gonna talk a little bit

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Speaker 2: about Conclave. But those are my two official positions are

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Speaker 2: on a Nora and a Sprinkle on the Brutalist.

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Speaker 1: I loved this because first of all, that was just

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Speaker 1: you just showed everyone exactly why you're on his podcast

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Speaker 1: and featured expert, because I mean that was that was

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Speaker 1: just like a ridiculous breakdown, just going off top two.

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Speaker 1: So I approached this a little bit different, And the

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Speaker 1: way I approach it is by kind of treating gold

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Speaker 1: Derby as the quote unquote Sharks to kind of draw

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Speaker 1: another one of those parallels between sports betting. Now, in

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Speaker 1: real sports betting, I'm never following Sharks or anything like

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Speaker 1: I'm I'm just doing my own thing, but I know

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Speaker 1: that some people may look at, you know, what they're doing,

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Speaker 1: or maybe even consider myself a sharp So I get

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Speaker 1: that there's people spending time looking at this stuff and

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Speaker 1: those opinions. Being able to synthesize those are extremely valuable.

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Speaker 1: And so what I've done is I've actually every year

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Speaker 1: I run the numbers and keep adding to my model

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Speaker 1: on the gold Derby predictions themselves. Because you have experts,

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Speaker 1: you have editors, you have top twenty four users from

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Speaker 1: the year before all, and then just every user on

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Speaker 1: the site more like the you know, the general public

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Speaker 1: or the squares so to speak. Everything is tracked and

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Speaker 1: you can kind of see and it's been tracked for

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Speaker 1: over a decade now, so it starts to really kind

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Speaker 1: of reveal, you know, where the consent you know, maybe

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Speaker 1: off where where the experts are really sharp and you

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Speaker 1: shouldn't go against them, and you can kind of put

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Speaker 1: some numbers to it. And that's what you really need to do,

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Speaker 1: is this is this, you know, betting these awards. It's

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Speaker 1: really hot hard to find those like true odds, right Like,

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Speaker 1: it's just it's really hard to prove, like we don't

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Speaker 1: see what's going on behind the scenes. Only I guess

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Speaker 1: what is it, Price Waterhouse Coopers or whoever does it.

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Speaker 1: They're the only ones I could see that. So, uh,

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Speaker 1: what I've seen, what I've found is with Best Picture.

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Speaker 1: It's really fascinating because the consensus favorite, which would be

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Speaker 1: an Aura, is on a four year wind streak in

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Speaker 1: terms of gold Derby, meaning like you know, the the

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Speaker 1: number one film that all the experts had as the

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Speaker 1: number one consensus wise, it's one four years in a row. However,

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Speaker 1: the previous five, the number two, the runner up essentially

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Speaker 1: the projected or runner up one each of those. So

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Speaker 1: it's been it went from you know, the upset for

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Speaker 1: five straight years to the favorite for four straight years.

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Speaker 1: But I think we could see it go back to

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Speaker 1: being an upset again. And the reason I do is

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Speaker 1: because if you look at and I do think Anorma

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Speaker 1: should be the favorite, I just think it's overvalued, and

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Speaker 1: I think Conclave is a little bit undervalue because you're

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Speaker 1: looking when you look at the brutalist also factoring in

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Speaker 1: and remember it's a preferential ballot. I think there's an

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Speaker 1: there's a real chance that you know, with Conclave, you know,

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Speaker 1: getting more nominations than an Aura and but not getting

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Speaker 1: that director nomination.

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Speaker 3: It might be one of.

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Speaker 1: Those weird years where like there there starts to be

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Speaker 1: these correlated uh ways of voting among the voting body

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Speaker 1: where they're they're gonna say, Okay, you know, we both

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Speaker 1: of these films are kind of even to us, So

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Speaker 1: we're gonna reward UH Anora and you know in Baker

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Speaker 1: for uh director. But we've seen them kind of go

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Speaker 1: a little bit off the map sometimes when there's just

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Speaker 1: like a good film that doesn't fit the standard precursor,

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Speaker 1: you know, things we've kind of come to know in

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Speaker 1: the past, and you kind of hit it, alluded to

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Speaker 1: it with Yeah, you have a twelve and fifteen trend

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Speaker 1: for Anora, but you also have a seven and nine

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Speaker 1: trend for conclaveors. So I think it's a little bit

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Speaker 1: more of a toss up, especially when you consider the

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Speaker 1: preferential ballot, especially when you consider that there's this third

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Speaker 1: film kind of hanging around that could you know, hurt

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Speaker 1: the favorite. I think more in a case like this,

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Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go with Conclave at plus two forty.

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Speaker 1: That's where I'm seeing the value. You know, in terms

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Speaker 1: of gold Derby, you have about about about thirty to

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Speaker 1: thirty five percent a little under you know at gold

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Speaker 1: Derby taking Conclave, and you what you see too is

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Speaker 1: the users at gold Derby, Like that means like anyone

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Speaker 1: who wants, like I could go and and you know,

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Speaker 1: put in a vote and put my preferential order, and

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Speaker 1: anyone can pay for the for the actual experts on

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Speaker 1: the site.

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Speaker 3: It's about double what just the general public thinks.

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Speaker 1: So I do think Conclave has been a little bit

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Speaker 1: underrated in a year where I don't think there's that

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Speaker 1: true runaway Best Picture nominee, like just the fact that

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Speaker 1: there's three, the fact that you know, as you mentioned,

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Speaker 1: at different points in the season, different films have been

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Speaker 1: you know, at the top, and even the Brute to Us,

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Speaker 1: I think, you know, there's some kind of artificial deflation

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Speaker 1: because you know, who knows. It's hard to predict how

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Speaker 1: an entire voting body is going to react to some

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Speaker 1: scandal that may or may not mean anything, you know,

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Speaker 1: as far as that AI stuff. So I just think

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of uncertainty, And when there's uncertainty, I

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Speaker 1: tend to shy away from the juiced up odds and

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Speaker 1: I tend to try to go for the long shot.

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Speaker 3: So I'm with you on the Brute to Us.

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Speaker 1: Then, for people that are you know, listening to this

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Speaker 1: pod and not really familiar with betting to listen to

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Speaker 1: it because you want to find some Oscars Hicks. When

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Speaker 1: Colin says, you know, sprinkle a little on the Brutalist,

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Speaker 1: that means you can take your Anora or your Concwave

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Speaker 1: at whatever odds and you let's say you put you know,

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Speaker 1: ten dollars on your main pick, you can still put

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Speaker 1: let's say two dollars on the Brutalist. And because you're

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Speaker 1: getting paid out, you know, seven to one. If I

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Speaker 1: if you know, you're essentially covered in two out of

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Speaker 1: this recent areas, you just have to eliminate the one.

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Speaker 1: And for me, I'm just going with the two plus

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Speaker 1: money ones. That's just with the uncertainty. Again, that's just

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Speaker 1: that's just how I'm playing it. I do again, I

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Speaker 1: do think Honora should be the favorite. I just think

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Speaker 1: it should be a little bit closer to a toss

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Speaker 1: up and they kind of have it running away, as

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Speaker 1: is the case with these kind of markets where you

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Speaker 1: don't know the trurods. But that's my kind of reasoning there.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, one this year with bet.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I will say, you know, like if you're the

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Speaker 2: most common way I think people uh wager on the

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Speaker 2: Oscars is in pools, you're picking winners. To be clear,

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Speaker 2: if I if I'm in an oscar pool, I'm picking

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Speaker 2: a Nora to invest picture because Honora has the highest

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Speaker 2: probability chance of winning. Uh, maybe you want to go

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Speaker 2: a little bit outside the box. You think everyone's going

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Speaker 2: to pick a Nora. That's where I would pivot to

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Speaker 2: maybe the conclaves or the brutalists. I think that there

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Speaker 2: is a and and an oscar voting Oscar betting. In general,

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Speaker 2: upsets are pretty rare at the Oscars. Out of twenty

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Speaker 2: three categories or whatever, you might see uh two to

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Speaker 2: four a year. The key is just identifying where those

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Speaker 2: upsets are going to be. And so that's where you

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Speaker 2: sprinkle on a couple of underdogs that you think might

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Speaker 2: be a little undervalued, because that's where because you're you're

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Speaker 2: just looking to find those underdogs. And this year in particular,

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Speaker 2: as I alluded to, kind of at the top, I

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Speaker 2: think we could see even more upsets just because there

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Speaker 2: is more uncertainty, especially across like, uh, probably the top

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Speaker 2: four categories here. There's no sure thing in Picture director

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Speaker 2: or either of the two top acting categories. And I

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Speaker 2: can't remember the last time that was the case. Entering

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Speaker 2: the weekend of the Oscars.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and I can actually put some numbers to it,

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Speaker 1: because again, this is why I find tracking gold Derby

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Speaker 1: so valuable. So if we go back to twenty eleven,

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Speaker 1: and let's just assume that like the number one, you know,

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Speaker 1: predicted winner on gold Derby, the consensus there is lines

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Speaker 1: up with the betting markets. It usually does. There will

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Speaker 1: be a couple of situations where it doesn't, which is

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Speaker 1: where we're gonna find some big value and we'll talk

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Speaker 1: about those. But so on average, the consensus, the favorite

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Speaker 1: whatever you want to call it, the front runner wins

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Speaker 1: about seventy six percent of the time. Going back to

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Speaker 1: twenty eleven, so you say about twenty three categories, it's

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Speaker 1: about yeah, five to six upsets per year. And I

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Speaker 1: will say this, there's been no category where an upset

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Speaker 1: has been more likely than best Picture. So that's kind

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Speaker 1: of that's kind of why I love to, you know,

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Speaker 1: kind of right off the bat, you know, go with

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Speaker 1: some got some longer shots at best picture, because there

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Speaker 1: were some years where it just wasn't fun at all.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think last year Oppenheimer bet on Oppenheimer,

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Speaker 1: and I I don't even know if I told you

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Speaker 1: my like, I just had a whole thing with Oppenheimer

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Speaker 1: where I started watching it and I was like two

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Speaker 1: and a half hours in realized I had I wasn't

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Speaker 1: paying close enough attention to literally had to go back

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Speaker 1: and restarted. So I ended up spending like seven eight

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Speaker 1: hours of my life on this film that I couldn't

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Speaker 1: even really profit off of because it was running away

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Speaker 1: like every single category I wanted to put like my

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Speaker 1: entire bank roll on on it. The books just won't

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Speaker 1: let you.

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Speaker 2: Well, did you did you sit through The Brutalist This year?

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Speaker 2: I did not.

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Speaker 1: I kind of this year, I kind of treated it

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Speaker 1: a little more like I'm watching, you know, film for

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Speaker 1: a sport, and I kind of watched it and skipped

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Speaker 1: around and you know, get some two X and I'm

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Speaker 1: a maniac.

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Speaker 2: It had an intermission. It was three hours and forty minutes.

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Speaker 2: I saw it. I shout out to the Music Box Theater,

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Speaker 2: my local indie theater that I am a member of,

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Speaker 2: and see everything here in Chicago. They had an intermission,

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Speaker 2: which is great. It's a really old Crumbly theater and

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Speaker 2: well formerly Crumbly, they've renovated. It's beautiful. But I could not.

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Speaker 2: I'm six foot three, I'm not a small man. I

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Speaker 2: could not have sat in those seats for three hours

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Speaker 2: and forty minutes straight. Blessed them for putting an Internet

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Speaker 2: mission in that movie. I loved The Brutalist, to be clear,

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Speaker 2: but three hours and forty minutes, just like Oppenheimer last year,

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Speaker 2: going three hours plus. Get some editor, let's talk. We

365
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Speaker 2: could talk about the editing category later. Get some editors

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Speaker 2: on these films. We don't need three plus hours on

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Speaker 2: all these films. Maybe I'm just getting old. It's the

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Speaker 2: tougher me.

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Speaker 1: Get some of that those COVID updates to your dat too.

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Speaker 1: I feel like every movie theater I've been to since

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Speaker 1: COVID has just had like the best seating. Like it's

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Speaker 1: been like leather recliner chairs.

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Speaker 2: Not the old school ones though, not the old not

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Speaker 2: the old school ones.

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Speaker 3: All right, I mean we're gonna get an intermission.

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Speaker 1: Now. We keep ramble on about one category, so let's

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Speaker 1: move on again. We got a lot, a lot of

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Speaker 1: bets to get to this year, because I do think

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Speaker 1: there's gonna be more upsets than usual. So let's go

380
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Speaker 1: to the aforementioned best director. We got Sean Baker for

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Speaker 1: Nora at sixty three percent, weeding the way, Brady Corbett

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Speaker 1: for The Brutalist at thirty five percent, and then there

383
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Speaker 1: is at two percent on Mangold from a complete unknown.

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Speaker 1: But this is basically between Baker and Corbett. There's no

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Speaker 1: conclave here, which which again I think is interesting and

386
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Speaker 1: even if it shouldn't, could influence, you know, the preferential

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Speaker 1: ballot and maybe even some of the other categories. But

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Speaker 1: that being said, I know you do like a long

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Speaker 1: shot or you know you like you like the plus

390
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Speaker 1: money with Corbett for director for this.

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Speaker 2: One, yeah, I can set the stage here a little bit.

392
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Speaker 2: Again I mentioned the tide turning against the Brutalist for

393
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Speaker 2: Best Picture there in like mid to late January. It

394
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Speaker 2: did so to an even more extreme degree. For Best Director.

395
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Speaker 2: On the day the Oscar nominations came out, Brady Corbett

396
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Speaker 2: was around a minus seven hundred favorite to win Best Director.

397
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Speaker 2: Sean Baker was around plus five fifty. The Director's Guild

398
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Speaker 2: Awards happened went to Sean Baker. Surprised everyone completely flipped

399
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Speaker 2: the odds. Sean Baker has been the favorite ever since.

400
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Speaker 2: My point of contention with anointing Baker because of his

401
00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:56,240
Speaker 2: DGA win is that there are there are other data

402
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Speaker 2: points you can look at. That point to Baker. It's true.

403
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Speaker 2: I'm sorry that point to Corbett. It's true that nineteen

404
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Speaker 2: of the last twenty one DGA Best Director winners went

405
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Speaker 2: on twin the Oscar. However, only two of those nineteen

406
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Speaker 2: did so without winning another televised award, which would be

407
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Speaker 2: the BAFF does the Golden Globes, the CCA. John Baker

408
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Speaker 2: didn't win any of those awards. The two examples, the

409
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Speaker 2: two outliers were Tom Hooper for The King Speech and

410
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Speaker 2: Alejandro and Uri too for Birdman.

411
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Speaker 1: Love that movie.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so again you got shot up.

413
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Speaker 1: Go watch it if you haven't seen it.

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Speaker 2: It's yes, absolutely so, Yeah, Baker won of the DGA.

415
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Speaker 2: Corbett has wins at the Golden Globes, the BAFF does

416
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Speaker 2: the IPA Satellite Awards, and he won the Silver Lion

417
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Speaker 2: at Venice at the Venice Film Festival. Those those data

418
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Speaker 2: points matter. That's people who are part of this voting

419
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Speaker 2: body as well, and it's enough to make him around

420
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Speaker 2: a coin flip, maybe even the favorite here, even if

421
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Speaker 2: you factor in that the CCA, the critics choice awards

422
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Speaker 2: went to neither of these guys. It went to John M.

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Speaker 2: Chew for Wicked, who's not nominated in this category. I

424
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Speaker 2: think that the Academy is more likely to award directors

425
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Speaker 2: who are of films that they see as technical achievements.

426
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Speaker 2: Honora is an actor driven movie. Conclave is an actor

427
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Speaker 2: driven movie. The Brutalist is an epic. It's this grand picturesque.

428
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Speaker 2: You got to see it on the big screen, loud booming,

429
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Speaker 2: theatrics that it's like insane, and that's the kind of

430
00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:41,600
Speaker 2: thing I think the Academy is more likely to reward.

431
00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:45,960
Speaker 2: So I am taking a shot here on Corbett on

432
00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:49,160
Speaker 2: The Brutalist at Plus Money. I do want to shout

433
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:51,280
Speaker 2: out two models that I rely on quite a bit,

434
00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:54,680
Speaker 2: experts and editors at gold Derby. I think are are

435
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:58,439
Speaker 2: very worth relying on. I love that Chris does it.

436
00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:00,239
Speaker 2: I love that we have different ways of looking at

437
00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:02,480
Speaker 2: this instead of just us agreeing on everything, because that

438
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:06,960
Speaker 2: would be no fun. Ben Zousmer of the Hollywood The

439
00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:10,639
Speaker 2: Hollywood Reporter, he comes out with an Oscar model every year.

440
00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:14,640
Speaker 2: He wrote a book on Oscar modeling. He has this

441
00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:18,080
Speaker 2: at thirty five percent for Baker and thirty percent for Corbett.

442
00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:20,040
Speaker 2: The fact that he has the favorite only at thirty

443
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:22,840
Speaker 2: five percent is kind of telling. And then there's another

444
00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:25,440
Speaker 2: kind of less known model that I found a couple

445
00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:26,879
Speaker 2: of years ago. I want to shout him out. His

446
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:30,720
Speaker 2: name is Cole Curtis. He has his own oscar projection blog,

447
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 2: very accurate, kind of inspired by ben Zeusmer who's been

448
00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:37,000
Speaker 2: doing this for a number of years. He actually has

449
00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:39,959
Speaker 2: Corbett at fifty five percent for this and Baker all

450
00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:42,159
Speaker 2: the way down at twenty six percent. I think that

451
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:46,879
Speaker 2: uncertainty plus the kind of non quantifiable elements that I

452
00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:50,320
Speaker 2: talked about with the type of movie that the Brutalists

453
00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 2: are enough for me to be worth backing Corbett here

454
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:56,080
Speaker 2: at anything plus money because I think he should be

455
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:56,600
Speaker 2: the favorite.

456
00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:00,119
Speaker 1: And I actually promise to the listeners we're not going

457
00:24:59,960 --> 00:25:03,000
Speaker 1: to to be disagreeing for the entire podcast, like we

458
00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:05,119
Speaker 1: actually do agree on a lot of these it just

459
00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:08,400
Speaker 1: so happens that these two are kind of correlated and

460
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:15,720
Speaker 1: wide open. But surprise, surprise, I do disagree a little bit,

461
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,440
Speaker 1: I think, and don't get me wrong, I can never

462
00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:21,639
Speaker 1: not taken the plus money side when when you do

463
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:24,360
Speaker 1: think it's a toss up. I just don't think it's

464
00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:28,919
Speaker 1: a toss up. And the reason is because and one

465
00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:31,720
Speaker 1: of the reasons why I do find, you know, gold

466
00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:34,679
Speaker 1: Derby so valuable and kind of using that as a

467
00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:39,720
Speaker 1: starting and sometimes ending point is because just like you've

468
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:42,240
Speaker 1: been pouring over this stuff, just like Ben shout out

469
00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:45,439
Speaker 1: to him, interviewed him once for a serious show I

470
00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:48,399
Speaker 1: did back in the day, So he's very sharp, and

471
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:52,399
Speaker 1: I've read his books multiple times over oscar metrics. So

472
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:58,920
Speaker 1: but the experts, the editors to all these people, they

473
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:05,560
Speaker 1: know all this information. It's already priced in and now

474
00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:08,920
Speaker 1: and that's this has been going up of experts are

475
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:15,320
Speaker 1: still picking Baker for Nora and going back as long

476
00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:17,680
Speaker 1: as we have data tracked, that's all the way back

477
00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:24,800
Speaker 1: to twenty eleven, so thirteen oscar seasons. No film has

478
00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:28,879
Speaker 1: lost in the director category with anything less than eighty

479
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:32,280
Speaker 1: three percent, so ninety one, unless you know there's like

480
00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:35,520
Speaker 1: a last second change in the coming days, I'm sticking

481
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:37,639
Speaker 1: with my pick. You made a really convincing case on

482
00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:40,280
Speaker 1: your end as well, But I'm rolling with I'm rolling

483
00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:44,520
Speaker 1: with Baker, and I was laughing because one thing we

484
00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:48,720
Speaker 1: should also point out is you mentioned, you know these

485
00:26:48,760 --> 00:26:51,879
Speaker 1: films that kind of this category kind of means towards

486
00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:57,040
Speaker 1: the technical achievements. I will say, Baker did get that

487
00:26:57,040 --> 00:27:00,800
Speaker 1: that that editing now too, right? No, that was it

488
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:03,880
Speaker 1: the production Now you got one of those technical nominations. Uh,

489
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:07,080
Speaker 1: there was one of those technical nominations. And that's kind

490
00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:09,960
Speaker 1: of like unheard of for a director. So this is

491
00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:14,919
Speaker 1: like not your everyday situation, I think. But I so

492
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:18,560
Speaker 1: I hate taking like the the juice up side of this. Uh,

493
00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:22,040
Speaker 1: but just from what I'm from everything I've seen on

494
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:25,280
Speaker 1: my end, uh, I I do think this is a

495
00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:28,640
Speaker 1: pretty convincing favorite. So but it it's it's all over

496
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 1: the place and that you can't dey like depending on

497
00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:33,119
Speaker 1: which model you're using, you know, like you said, there's

498
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:35,720
Speaker 1: a bunch of models that would say there should be

499
00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:38,320
Speaker 1: no favorite. So can't knock the plus money side. But

500
00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:40,600
Speaker 1: that's what I'm kind of rolling with. And I do

501
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:43,160
Speaker 1: think the way I have it kind of playing out

502
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:47,000
Speaker 1: is always I hope is uh Conkwave kind of gets

503
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:50,840
Speaker 1: the upset and Best Picture and uh and Honora, you know,

504
00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:53,720
Speaker 1: it takes director and everyone's kind of satisfied with their

505
00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:54,439
Speaker 1: with their vote.

506
00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:56,760
Speaker 3: But that just comes from like reading some.

507
00:27:56,680 --> 00:27:59,480
Speaker 1: Of those what do you call it those uh, those

508
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:01,760
Speaker 1: blind you know, I don't even know if they're real.

509
00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 2: Side of anonymous ballots, Are those real? Like when they

510
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 2: go anonymous ballots, anonymous voter.

511
00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:11,040
Speaker 1: Number eight, they just published, like you know, like the

512
00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:13,920
Speaker 1: way you know sometimes you do a mail bag episode

513
00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:15,880
Speaker 1: and you know there might be a question or two.

514
00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:18,000
Speaker 2: That I'm pretty sure. I'm pretty sure they're real. I

515
00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 2: think it's in the same way that like MLB Hall

516
00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:23,960
Speaker 2: of Fame voting voters reveal their ballots ahead of time.

517
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:26,480
Speaker 2: They just OSCAR voters aren't allowed to reveal their name,

518
00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:28,840
Speaker 2: I think. But yeah, I as far as I know,

519
00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:31,679
Speaker 2: they're real. But the problem is if you see thirty

520
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:34,880
Speaker 2: of them, that's out of a couple of thousand voters,

521
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:36,439
Speaker 2: you know, So how big of a data point can

522
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:37,879
Speaker 2: that really be? No?

523
00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:39,880
Speaker 1: Not, just something that I've heard over and over in

524
00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:42,800
Speaker 1: general of not even specific to this year, is that

525
00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:45,520
Speaker 1: sometimes when there's a split, it's like, Okay, well, I

526
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:49,400
Speaker 1: I honored this film in this category, so I feel

527
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:52,480
Speaker 1: more comfortable going against it in this category, And usually

528
00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 1: it just doesn't line up to where it's very significant.

529
00:28:55,240 --> 00:29:00,200
Speaker 1: But for this year. I do think it is really

530
00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 1: significant just because you do have, you know, one of

531
00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 1: the leading contenders for Best Picture, not in the director category,

532
00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:12,200
Speaker 1: which is usually very predictive, but last, you know, last.

533
00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 1: More recently, especially with the preferential ballot, we've started to

534
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:18,520
Speaker 1: see just some of those films that you would just

535
00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:21,520
Speaker 1: call kind of like good films or you know, things

536
00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 1: they thought were good films went out in those things.

537
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:27,080
Speaker 1: So it's it's it's definitely up in the air. These

538
00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:32,040
Speaker 1: two categories, unlike some years, are very betable. So you know,

539
00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:35,960
Speaker 1: take your pick. You can take myself, you could take both,

540
00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:38,720
Speaker 1: but you're gonna win somehow. I guarantee that.

541
00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:43,480
Speaker 2: Yeah. Again, I have no problem with the Baker Baker pick.

542
00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:46,840
Speaker 2: I think it's it's close to a coin flip. I

543
00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:49,600
Speaker 2: won't be shocked if Baker wins. I just think there's

544
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:53,000
Speaker 2: value on Corbette plus money. I did think it was interesting.

545
00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:56,959
Speaker 2: I hadn't really thought a ton about the conclave no

546
00:29:57,040 --> 00:29:59,320
Speaker 2: Best Director. I wish I had the hard data in

547
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:00,960
Speaker 2: front of you, but I remember it being a big

548
00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:07,080
Speaker 2: deal when Argo won Best Picture because Ben Affleck wasn't

549
00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:10,560
Speaker 2: nominated for Best Director. That was I believe like the

550
00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:13,600
Speaker 2: first time ever that a Best Picture winner didn't have

551
00:30:13,640 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 2: a Best Director. No, I don't know if it's happened

552
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:18,720
Speaker 2: since then, but Conclave would fall into that category.

553
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:19,840
Speaker 1: I got you.

554
00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:21,000
Speaker 3: I got you with some data.

555
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:24,320
Speaker 1: So going back to two thousand and nine with the

556
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:31,120
Speaker 1: hurt Locker, which is fifteen years, twelve of the fifteen

557
00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:37,120
Speaker 1: have gotten a director nom. However, if you look over

558
00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:42,520
Speaker 1: the last six years, that's only four out of six.

559
00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:45,320
Speaker 1: So there's been two, you know, two times where it

560
00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:48,040
Speaker 1: has it green Book and Coda, And I think you

561
00:30:48,040 --> 00:30:50,120
Speaker 1: know that this is kind of a similar situation where

562
00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:55,920
Speaker 1: you didn't really see you know, Green Books editor, excuse me, director.

563
00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:58,120
Speaker 1: I believe it didn't get a director not either or

564
00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:00,720
Speaker 1: it didn't definitely didn't win or was it a major factor?

565
00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 3: And same thing for for Coda.

566
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:05,400
Speaker 1: I believe it. Don't don't quote me on that, but

567
00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:08,960
Speaker 1: I believe it's like that kind of film that would

568
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:12,320
Speaker 1: that tends to win. And I see Conguve in kind

569
00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:15,000
Speaker 1: of that same light, like it's it's just a it's

570
00:31:15,040 --> 00:31:18,680
Speaker 1: a good film. We know it's a good film, even

571
00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:22,720
Speaker 1: if you don't necessarily want to it's not among you know,

572
00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:26,840
Speaker 1: the top five in terms of directions. So it's this

573
00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:29,040
Speaker 1: is this is one of those years where it's there's

574
00:31:29,080 --> 00:31:31,640
Speaker 1: it's definitely there's gonna be some surprises that whether it's

575
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:35,360
Speaker 1: in these two categories, and that could extend outwards. So

576
00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 1: let's let's get on to actor. Uh and this is

577
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:43,160
Speaker 1: one where the Brutalist is a clear favorite due to

578
00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:48,880
Speaker 1: Adrian Brody, who and one of my favorite actors. I

579
00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:53,560
Speaker 1: will say, and you know, this is an interesting so

580
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:56,000
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'll start us off here because I like

581
00:31:56,200 --> 00:32:01,240
Speaker 1: Timothy Shallomey at plus one fifties is about thirty on Calci.

582
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:05,320
Speaker 1: Brody's at sixty seven percent, so two man race essentially,

583
00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:09,520
Speaker 1: And there's a lot of history and trends at play

584
00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 1: here that I don't think they're gonna influence the voters,

585
00:32:13,280 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 1: but it's not out of the question. But Chao May,

586
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:22,120
Speaker 1: if he won here, he would actually dethrone Adrian Brody

587
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 1: as the youngest winner of this award. However, there's some

588
00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:30,400
Speaker 1: things going again, a lot going against him too. Brody,

589
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:35,840
Speaker 1: you know, essentially was on his way to sweeping until

590
00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:39,400
Speaker 1: Chao May wins the sag Award, which was the most

591
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:45,640
Speaker 1: recent souh at the same time the SAG Award is

592
00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:49,600
Speaker 1: on a three year winning streak of predicting the eventual

593
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:54,479
Speaker 1: Oscar winner, but then counterpoints that it's pretty much unheard

594
00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:57,600
Speaker 1: of to only win the SAG and not have won

595
00:32:57,640 --> 00:33:00,440
Speaker 1: any of those other awards. So it's it's one of

596
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:03,400
Speaker 1: those kind of weird another one of these weird situations.

597
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:11,920
Speaker 1: But I do sense that the brutalists could be on

598
00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:17,760
Speaker 1: somewhat of a Amelia Perez type, you know, fall here,

599
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:20,080
Speaker 1: because we are kind of seeing the signs, you know,

600
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:24,240
Speaker 1: with just like I don't I know, Timothy Shallowy was great.

601
00:33:24,280 --> 00:33:27,400
Speaker 1: I think he is deserving of the award, but you

602
00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:31,200
Speaker 1: know it's like Brody had all the momentum and it

603
00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:32,719
Speaker 1: just the SAG is.

604
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:35,560
Speaker 3: You know, it should have been a foregone conclusion and

605
00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 3: it wasn't.

606
00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:38,760
Speaker 1: So that just kind of has my eyebrows raised, and

607
00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:42,480
Speaker 1: you know, shout to our guy Colin Wilson, who has

608
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:46,240
Speaker 1: done a bunch of these with me as well, with us,

609
00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:50,320
Speaker 1: you know as well. He was telling me that I

610
00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:53,040
Speaker 1: the one Oscar bet I had to make. He was

611
00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:56,960
Speaker 1: telling me this last like July was Timothy shallow May

612
00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:01,320
Speaker 1: in this Dylan flick. So no matter what was going

613
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:06,120
Speaker 1: to happen. I have to bet shallow May everywhere. I've

614
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:10,719
Speaker 1: already max bet him everywhere. The odds are pretty fair.

615
00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:13,160
Speaker 1: Is not a major major edge here, and I think

616
00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:14,759
Speaker 1: you're you're going to kind of talk about that, but

617
00:34:15,560 --> 00:34:19,400
Speaker 1: I do think there is enough smoke here with the

618
00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:22,759
Speaker 1: brutal is kind of trending downward and Brody maybe being

619
00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:26,160
Speaker 1: a victim of that. And oh so Shallomy was just

620
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:29,360
Speaker 1: really good in his role. So uh rolling with shallow

621
00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:32,480
Speaker 1: May here as that you know about plus one fifty

622
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:34,720
Speaker 1: you can get him at on a normal odds about

623
00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:37,360
Speaker 1: uh thirty two on Calshi.

624
00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:38,160
Speaker 3: What are your thoughts, Colin?

625
00:34:39,560 --> 00:34:41,840
Speaker 2: I I started laughing. I had I had to stifle

626
00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:44,520
Speaker 2: some laughter there a little bit through because I didn't

627
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:46,879
Speaker 2: know this. You mentioned Colin Wilson telling you six months

628
00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:49,600
Speaker 2: ago at to bet Shallow May. That's because I told

629
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:53,719
Speaker 2: Colin Wilson to bet Shallow May six months ago, you.

630
00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:55,239
Speaker 1: Collins Man, you just.

631
00:34:56,880 --> 00:34:57,520
Speaker 2: I texted.

632
00:34:58,800 --> 00:35:03,200
Speaker 1: Now, I know, point taken, point taken, I did, But

633
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:06,759
Speaker 1: I mean you or he or whoever it was, make great.

634
00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:10,799
Speaker 1: I don't have a memory. Well you know, yeah, like

635
00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:12,680
Speaker 1: there's a lot of reasons. So why don't you kind

636
00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:14,279
Speaker 1: of talk about it. I know you're kind of waiting

637
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:17,040
Speaker 1: for a certain number, but yeah, make the case for

638
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:17,719
Speaker 1: SHAALOI here.

639
00:35:17,880 --> 00:35:21,600
Speaker 2: Yeah. So I saw this coming uh back in the summer,

640
00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:23,200
Speaker 2: just you know, not to choot my own horn. But

641
00:35:23,800 --> 00:35:27,160
Speaker 2: they they rushed this, They rushed this film to come

642
00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:31,600
Speaker 2: out in twenty twenty four. In July, I was all

643
00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:34,160
Speaker 2: over Coleman Domingo for sing sing that seemed like the

644
00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:37,120
Speaker 2: perfect Oscar movie. The Brutalist wasn't really on my radar yet,

645
00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:39,799
Speaker 2: And then I'm blanking on the production company for a

646
00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:44,640
Speaker 2: Complete Unknown. They announced in July that Complete Unknown's coming

647
00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:46,200
Speaker 2: out this year and it's coming out on Christmas Day,

648
00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:48,160
Speaker 2: and I go, oh my god. They think they have

649
00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:50,080
Speaker 2: a piece of Oscar bait on their hands. They think

650
00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:55,120
Speaker 2: that they're gonna get Timmy a gold statue. So you know,

651
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:58,040
Speaker 2: they didn't come out with odds that second. But I

652
00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:00,000
Speaker 2: was like, he's gonna be He's gonna be up there

653
00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:03,160
Speaker 2: among the contenders come showtime. And sure enough, here he is.

654
00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:06,680
Speaker 2: Now this played out exactly like I thought it was

655
00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:10,280
Speaker 2: going to, and I bought in on call she I'm brody.

656
00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:15,560
Speaker 2: Probably around when Oscar nominations came out, I bought him

657
00:36:15,560 --> 00:36:19,600
Speaker 2: at fifty six percent, and what I expected to happen

658
00:36:19,960 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 2: was that Brody would clean up most of the precursor awards.

659
00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:26,120
Speaker 2: But I was very confident that the SAG would go

660
00:36:26,160 --> 00:36:31,239
Speaker 2: to Timothy shallow May because Timothy shallow May is your

661
00:36:31,320 --> 00:36:37,759
Speaker 2: quintessential like geeky theater kid that his fellow actors love. Like.

662
00:36:38,280 --> 00:36:40,360
Speaker 2: He's like the male Emma Stone. You see m a

663
00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:42,319
Speaker 2: Stone winning all these awards because.

664
00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:44,640
Speaker 1: Hey, hey, hey no, let's not let's not go that far.

665
00:36:44,760 --> 00:36:46,600
Speaker 1: I hold this, this is not this is not critici.

666
00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 1: Stone is like on the Mount Rushmore with like three

667
00:36:50,239 --> 00:36:50,960
Speaker 1: more Emma Stones.

668
00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:54,399
Speaker 2: To me, like, you cannot these are do not take

669
00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:57,680
Speaker 2: these as criticisms. I love both both actors.

670
00:36:57,840 --> 00:36:58,400
Speaker 1: You can't go.

671
00:36:59,760 --> 00:37:04,200
Speaker 2: But so my whole idea was I was going to

672
00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:07,600
Speaker 2: cash out on Brody right before the SAgs. I called

673
00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:10,160
Speaker 2: she he was at around eighty percent of the showtime.

674
00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:13,319
Speaker 2: But I got greedy. I was like, nah, Brody might

675
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:15,480
Speaker 2: win the SAgs. I'm gonna hang on to this. He didn't.

676
00:37:15,520 --> 00:37:19,520
Speaker 2: Shell May was one I was right, but then I

677
00:37:19,640 --> 00:37:23,400
Speaker 2: was wrong. So I'm sitting on this Adrian Brody position

678
00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:24,879
Speaker 2: and I'm just going to write it out and see

679
00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:27,920
Speaker 2: if he wins. All that said, I do think that

680
00:37:27,960 --> 00:37:30,600
Speaker 2: there is a pathway here to shallow may winning. I

681
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:32,520
Speaker 2: do wish the odds were a little bit longer. I

682
00:37:32,560 --> 00:37:34,680
Speaker 2: wish I'd bet him before the freaking SAG Awards, like

683
00:37:34,719 --> 00:37:36,480
Speaker 2: I thought I was going to, like I wanted to.

684
00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:41,239
Speaker 2: H you mentioned the difference between the SAG and the Oscars,

685
00:37:41,280 --> 00:37:43,040
Speaker 2: the fact that the SAG is on a three year

686
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:45,680
Speaker 2: winning streak, and predicting the Oscars. It goes back even

687
00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:49,000
Speaker 2: further than that. Only twice since two thousand and four

688
00:37:49,520 --> 00:37:52,600
Speaker 2: have the SAG and the Academy picked a different Best Actor.

689
00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:58,240
Speaker 2: It was a twenty twenty. Famously, Chadwick Boseman was awarded

690
00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:01,120
Speaker 2: posthumously as Screen actressilled Everyone thought he was going to

691
00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:02,840
Speaker 2: get coornated at the Academy as well. They went with

692
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:04,160
Speaker 2: Anthony Hopkins instead, one of.

693
00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:07,040
Speaker 1: The greatest Oscar moments of all time too. Yeah, obviously not,

694
00:38:07,160 --> 00:38:07,680
Speaker 1: you know, no, just.

695
00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:09,120
Speaker 2: They closed the freaking show with it.

696
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:12,719
Speaker 1: Chao, the chaos of it all, which is ada was

697
00:38:12,719 --> 00:38:15,360
Speaker 1: the Hopkins All right, we're out by Yeah.

698
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:17,440
Speaker 2: Adam was the COVID year. They weren't in the Doldie Theater.

699
00:38:17,600 --> 00:38:18,800
Speaker 2: It was it was a fucking mess.

700
00:38:19,040 --> 00:38:19,239
Speaker 1: Uh.

701
00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:21,799
Speaker 2: And then twenty sixteen was the other The SAG went

702
00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:26,600
Speaker 2: with Denzel Washington. The Academy awarded Casey Affleck. So it's possible.

703
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:30,520
Speaker 1: But yeah, you're telling me I'll definitely fade Colon Domingo.

704
00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:39,719
Speaker 2: Yes, I cut that out, Matt, but uh yeah, the

705
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:41,879
Speaker 2: SAG obviously carries the most weight.

706
00:38:42,239 --> 00:38:42,600
Speaker 1: Uh.

707
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:45,400
Speaker 2: The SAG carries the most weight in all of the

708
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:48,360
Speaker 2: Oscars because it's the biggest voting body among all Oscars voters.

709
00:38:48,360 --> 00:38:51,680
Speaker 2: There's more, there's more actors than there are uh camera

710
00:38:51,719 --> 00:38:53,279
Speaker 2: operators and directors.

711
00:38:53,480 --> 00:38:53,960
Speaker 1: Uh.

712
00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:58,759
Speaker 2: So, I I like Shalla May. If I were if

713
00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:01,440
Speaker 2: if I had no position going into Sunday on this,

714
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:03,879
Speaker 2: I would be betting shallow May one hundred percent for sure.

715
00:39:04,080 --> 00:39:06,160
Speaker 2: Wish it were a little longer. I will say that

716
00:39:06,200 --> 00:39:08,719
Speaker 2: there is a different way to approach this, and it's

717
00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:11,680
Speaker 2: view one of the exotic markets that is currently offered

718
00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:14,800
Speaker 2: at fan Duel. They're offering over under four and a

719
00:39:14,840 --> 00:39:22,240
Speaker 2: half first time OSCAR winners among the Director and Actor awards.

720
00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:26,160
Speaker 2: So that's five categories Director, Best Actor, and Actress, Best

721
00:39:26,160 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 2: Supporting Actors, Supporting actress over under four and a half,

722
00:39:29,960 --> 00:39:34,759
Speaker 2: that basically is just a bet on best actor. Best

723
00:39:34,760 --> 00:39:36,720
Speaker 2: Directors is guaranteed to go to a first ten winner

724
00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:39,839
Speaker 2: Baker Corbett Best Actress, which we're going to talk about

725
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:43,320
Speaker 2: in a minute, Demi Moore or Mikey Madison, both first timers,

726
00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:46,280
Speaker 2: and then the two runaway favorites and the supporting chactors

727
00:39:46,280 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 2: are both for both first timers. So if you're betting

728
00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:52,680
Speaker 2: over four and a half first time winners, you're betting

729
00:39:52,680 --> 00:39:55,840
Speaker 2: on shallow May. If you're betting under four and a half,

730
00:39:55,960 --> 00:39:58,239
Speaker 2: you're betting on Brody. I was just looking at what

731
00:39:58,280 --> 00:40:00,000
Speaker 2: the price is on the over under four and a half,

732
00:40:00,520 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 2: and so over four and a half is plus one

733
00:40:05,040 --> 00:40:09,520
Speaker 2: oh five. Under four and a half is minus one

734
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:15,680
Speaker 2: sixty five. And so if you're looking to make money

735
00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:18,560
Speaker 2: on Adrian Brody, if you think he's going to win

736
00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:23,560
Speaker 2: this award, you go with the under, because minus won

737
00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:26,560
Speaker 2: sixty five for under four and a half is a

738
00:40:26,600 --> 00:40:29,480
Speaker 2: bet on Brody when Brody's sitting in the minus two

739
00:40:29,600 --> 00:40:34,279
Speaker 2: ten or longer range. So if you like Brody, bet

740
00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:38,160
Speaker 2: that market if it's available to you. I personally am

741
00:40:38,200 --> 00:40:41,120
Speaker 2: not going to have any extra steak on this award

742
00:40:41,239 --> 00:40:45,840
Speaker 2: because of my previous stakes. But shallow May is the

743
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:49,160
Speaker 2: value play here because of the momentum off the Saguin

744
00:40:49,640 --> 00:40:53,440
Speaker 2: and again the fact that he's he's a darling of

745
00:40:53,440 --> 00:40:55,879
Speaker 2: the academy. I think that they love him. They want

746
00:40:55,920 --> 00:40:59,000
Speaker 2: to give him his award. Finally, Brody already has one.

747
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:02,840
Speaker 2: So yeah, shall plus money is probably the way to

748
00:41:02,880 --> 00:41:03,200
Speaker 2: go home.

749
00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:06,680
Speaker 1: There's been years where I've ended up on you know,

750
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:10,239
Speaker 1: some of the chalk, and I just haven't liked it

751
00:41:10,280 --> 00:41:13,480
Speaker 1: as much. You know. I do think that these kind

752
00:41:13,480 --> 00:41:19,479
Speaker 1: of UH betting, these kind of UH markets generally lends

753
00:41:19,560 --> 00:41:24,239
Speaker 1: itself toward just finding those the value on those underdogs,

754
00:41:24,239 --> 00:41:27,600
Speaker 1: even if the the true odds don't line up exactly,

755
00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:30,319
Speaker 1: or maybe you're only showing like a one percent or

756
00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:33,439
Speaker 1: two percent edge or something like that, because if you're

757
00:41:33,480 --> 00:41:36,640
Speaker 1: you're doing it consistently, you do know there are going

758
00:41:36,680 --> 00:41:40,759
Speaker 1: to be probably five or six upsides, upsets excuse me,

759
00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:45,080
Speaker 1: scattered through and you're unlikely to just keep you know,

760
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:48,400
Speaker 1: go over whatever, because these are uh you know a

761
00:41:48,400 --> 00:41:50,360
Speaker 1: lot of there is a very good case for I

762
00:41:50,360 --> 00:41:55,600
Speaker 1: think a lot of these uh I guess underdogs so

763
00:41:55,680 --> 00:41:58,319
Speaker 1: to speak. So Yeah, that's the way I'm I've been

764
00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:03,799
Speaker 1: approaching UH Awards season. I think the there's maybe like

765
00:42:03,880 --> 00:42:07,400
Speaker 1: one or two I think a director and maybe one

766
00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:10,080
Speaker 1: or one other one really the only ones where I

767
00:42:09,680 --> 00:42:16,319
Speaker 1: found myself going with anyone that is juiced up, you know,

768
00:42:16,520 --> 00:42:22,880
Speaker 1: past you know, even money. Let's jump into Best Actress.

769
00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:27,880
Speaker 1: Demi Moore the leader, the favorite at sixty seven percent

770
00:42:27,960 --> 00:42:32,960
Speaker 1: on Caushi, Mikey Madison of Honora at twenty seven percent,

771
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:36,800
Speaker 1: and you do have some love for Fernando Torres, who

772
00:42:37,600 --> 00:42:40,719
Speaker 1: I think was great and just unfortunate, probably just an

773
00:42:40,800 --> 00:42:44,080
Speaker 1: unfortunate year where I do think there's just so much

774
00:42:44,080 --> 00:42:50,200
Speaker 1: support for Demi Moore. But I actually have sprinkled a

775
00:42:50,200 --> 00:42:56,480
Speaker 1: little bit on Torres, just because again I think more

776
00:42:56,840 --> 00:43:00,840
Speaker 1: should be the favorite, but I do think Torres is

777
00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:06,239
Speaker 1: a little bit undervalued, and if you take name recognition

778
00:43:06,760 --> 00:43:11,440
Speaker 1: out of the equation, I do think that Torres was

779
00:43:11,560 --> 00:43:14,680
Speaker 1: just as good and probably better. You know, I'm still

780
00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:16,600
Speaker 1: here than Demi Moore was in the substance and she

781
00:43:16,719 --> 00:43:21,399
Speaker 1: was great too, but obviously, but how are you kind

782
00:43:21,400 --> 00:43:23,360
Speaker 1: of approaching this market?

783
00:43:24,160 --> 00:43:26,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I've been on I've been on Demi Moore

784
00:43:26,800 --> 00:43:29,040
Speaker 2: for quite a while I do think there's still value

785
00:43:29,080 --> 00:43:32,399
Speaker 2: on her, I have a pretty firm position she's going

786
00:43:32,480 --> 00:43:36,680
Speaker 2: to win this award. The Academy as much as they

787
00:43:36,719 --> 00:43:38,840
Speaker 2: love their their new kids on the block like I,

788
00:43:38,880 --> 00:43:41,960
Speaker 2: like I mentioned with Shalla May they love their their

789
00:43:42,040 --> 00:43:46,440
Speaker 2: career Achievement awards. Demi Moore has been around forever. You know.

790
00:43:46,600 --> 00:43:52,000
Speaker 2: The Substances a fucking insane movie. If you haven't seen it,

791
00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:55,520
Speaker 2: it's absolutely batshit crazy and she's phenomenal in it. And

792
00:43:55,560 --> 00:43:59,840
Speaker 2: it's kind of a lifetime Achievement award of sense of

793
00:43:59,880 --> 00:44:04,520
Speaker 2: a in a sense. You know, she's had this career,

794
00:44:04,560 --> 00:44:06,200
Speaker 2: she's had her ups and downs, she kind of went

795
00:44:06,239 --> 00:44:08,760
Speaker 2: off the radar for a long time, and now she's

796
00:44:08,880 --> 00:44:15,200
Speaker 2: back with a film like The Substance. The Fernando Torres

797
00:44:15,880 --> 00:44:18,319
Speaker 2: is interesting. I'm with you. I'm taking a stab, taking

798
00:44:18,320 --> 00:44:21,560
Speaker 2: a sprinkle on her, especially now that she's at sixteen

799
00:44:21,640 --> 00:44:26,560
Speaker 2: to one. She's kind of had a roller coaster ride.

800
00:44:26,680 --> 00:44:29,080
Speaker 2: Right before the Golden Globes she was twenty eight to one.

801
00:44:29,800 --> 00:44:33,200
Speaker 2: Then she won. At the Golden Globes. They have two

802
00:44:33,239 --> 00:44:36,800
Speaker 2: acting categories. They have the Comedy and Comedy at Slash

803
00:44:36,960 --> 00:44:40,120
Speaker 2: Musical and then the Drama and after she won, she

804
00:44:40,120 --> 00:44:45,440
Speaker 2: went to plus four thirty for Best Actress, So there

805
00:44:45,480 --> 00:44:47,399
Speaker 2: was a lot of momentum on her, despite the fact

806
00:44:47,440 --> 00:44:49,560
Speaker 2: that the Golden Globes isn't a great predictor. It was,

807
00:44:49,920 --> 00:44:53,600
Speaker 2: you know, odds makers and betters reacting to the first

808
00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:58,160
Speaker 2: major awards show of this season. You know, she hasn't

809
00:44:58,200 --> 00:45:00,000
Speaker 2: won anything since then, so she settled a little bit

810
00:45:00,160 --> 00:45:02,080
Speaker 2: back in the fourteen to sixteen to one range, which

811
00:45:02,080 --> 00:45:04,640
Speaker 2: I think is where you find value in her. The

812
00:45:04,680 --> 00:45:08,239
Speaker 2: interesting thing with her is that she has none of

813
00:45:08,280 --> 00:45:12,120
Speaker 2: these award shows has she been nominated against Mikey Madison

814
00:45:12,400 --> 00:45:15,279
Speaker 2: and Demi Moore. Now that you could read that, it's

815
00:45:15,280 --> 00:45:17,200
Speaker 2: not a good sign because she hasn't been nominated in

816
00:45:17,360 --> 00:45:21,680
Speaker 2: you know, a lot of these these other award shows.

817
00:45:22,040 --> 00:45:28,480
Speaker 2: But I'm Still Here was also a surprise Best Picture nominee,

818
00:45:28,719 --> 00:45:33,080
Speaker 2: so the Academy clearly has an affinity for it. I

819
00:45:33,600 --> 00:45:37,960
Speaker 2: was tracking Oscar odds before nominations came out, and for

820
00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:42,400
Speaker 2: Best Picture my list went about thirty movies deep, you know,

821
00:45:42,440 --> 00:45:44,680
Speaker 2: because I didn't know what it was. It was the

822
00:45:44,719 --> 00:45:47,440
Speaker 2: top thirty odds I was tracking. I'm Still Here was

823
00:45:47,520 --> 00:45:49,799
Speaker 2: not one of the top thirty At the time it

824
00:45:49,880 --> 00:45:52,719
Speaker 2: was not listed. I went down to sixty five to

825
00:45:52,760 --> 00:45:55,319
Speaker 2: one odds for Best Picture, and I'm still here. Wasn't

826
00:45:55,320 --> 00:45:57,239
Speaker 2: don there and now it's up for Best Picture. You

827
00:45:57,239 --> 00:46:01,400
Speaker 2: know it's not gonna win. The point is the Academy

828
00:46:01,560 --> 00:46:03,640
Speaker 2: clearly loves that movie. We're gonna get into it even

829
00:46:03,680 --> 00:46:06,600
Speaker 2: more with the Best International Film a little bit later

830
00:46:06,600 --> 00:46:11,879
Speaker 2: in that fascinating race. But the other sense of this,

831
00:46:12,360 --> 00:46:15,480
Speaker 2: the flip side of the coin with the Torres argument,

832
00:46:15,600 --> 00:46:19,280
Speaker 2: is it seems a lot like the Sondra Huler juice

833
00:46:19,280 --> 00:46:21,480
Speaker 2: that we saw last year. People were seeing her as

834
00:46:21,560 --> 00:46:25,640
Speaker 2: kind of a stealth underdog. Obviously didn't play out, and again,

835
00:46:25,960 --> 00:46:28,759
Speaker 2: unlike sports, we can't look and be like, well, she

836
00:46:28,920 --> 00:46:31,600
Speaker 2: almost won. We don't know. She could have gotten ten votes,

837
00:46:31,640 --> 00:46:34,200
Speaker 2: she could have gotten five thousand votes. We have no idea.

838
00:46:34,239 --> 00:46:36,480
Speaker 2: And that'll be the case here with Torres. I think

839
00:46:36,480 --> 00:46:38,400
Speaker 2: that she's a stealth underdog in the sense that she

840
00:46:38,520 --> 00:46:40,560
Speaker 2: might be making this a little bit closer of a race.

841
00:46:40,920 --> 00:46:42,840
Speaker 2: It's interesting that both of us agree that there's no

842
00:46:42,960 --> 00:46:46,720
Speaker 2: value here in Mikey Madison, who would also, I believe,

843
00:46:47,600 --> 00:46:51,719
Speaker 2: be in the conversation for Youngest youngest winner. If she

844
00:46:51,800 --> 00:46:53,640
Speaker 2: got it, she's a breakout star. I think we're going

845
00:46:53,719 --> 00:46:57,480
Speaker 2: to be seeing her in everything soon. But yeah, career

846
00:46:57,560 --> 00:47:00,360
Speaker 2: lifetime achieving a word for Demi Moore very firm normally

847
00:47:00,920 --> 00:47:03,680
Speaker 2: of that belief. I think it still has value even

848
00:47:04,440 --> 00:47:06,719
Speaker 2: in the minus two fifty range where it's at right now.

849
00:47:07,560 --> 00:47:10,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly like it's I'm glad to pointed out the

850
00:47:10,760 --> 00:47:16,080
Speaker 1: you know, the Best Picture nomination because that what I found,

851
00:47:16,480 --> 00:47:19,080
Speaker 1: you know, beyond just breaking down the data, but actually

852
00:47:19,239 --> 00:47:23,000
Speaker 1: just you know, looking back at what I happen to

853
00:47:23,040 --> 00:47:26,520
Speaker 1: be most surprised by in terms of upsets looking back

854
00:47:26,560 --> 00:47:30,160
Speaker 1: at some of the awards in years past, the thing

855
00:47:30,200 --> 00:47:33,520
Speaker 1: that tends to stand out is when you have a

856
00:47:35,040 --> 00:47:39,080
Speaker 1: film that's either nominated for Best Picture outright, it tends

857
00:47:39,160 --> 00:47:42,399
Speaker 1: to win in other categories because again, you know, they

858
00:47:42,520 --> 00:47:47,239
Speaker 1: want to award the film somehow, but especially when it's

859
00:47:47,239 --> 00:47:51,840
Speaker 1: an international film you know, that also gets that nomination

860
00:47:51,920 --> 00:47:55,040
Speaker 1: in Best Picture. I think we tend to really underrate

861
00:47:55,560 --> 00:47:59,239
Speaker 1: those films and just how much the Academy.

862
00:47:59,360 --> 00:48:00,360
Speaker 3: Enjoys those films.

863
00:48:00,520 --> 00:48:03,800
Speaker 1: And I do think it's no it's no slight to

864
00:48:04,080 --> 00:48:06,400
Speaker 1: Mikey Madison, but I do think the fact that you

865
00:48:06,440 --> 00:48:13,440
Speaker 1: know Torres is, you know, an industry veteran, just like

866
00:48:13,520 --> 00:48:18,080
Speaker 1: Demi Moore. Now obviously like the name recognitions, not anywhere

867
00:48:18,120 --> 00:48:21,520
Speaker 1: in the same ballpark. But it's the difference between being

868
00:48:21,520 --> 00:48:24,160
Speaker 1: a veteran a predictor. I think if I'm a predictor,

869
00:48:24,239 --> 00:48:28,280
Speaker 1: I'm just trying to hit the winner. Obviously it's Demi Moore.

870
00:48:28,320 --> 00:48:32,160
Speaker 1: But do I think there's a greater chance than sixteen

871
00:48:32,200 --> 00:48:35,919
Speaker 1: to one that we see an upset? Absolutely, So that'll

872
00:48:36,000 --> 00:48:36,879
Speaker 1: be my play.

873
00:48:36,760 --> 00:48:40,120
Speaker 2: The crazy Taurus stat before we move on that you

874
00:48:40,280 --> 00:48:42,440
Speaker 2: probably know, maybe the listeners don't, is that she's the

875
00:48:42,480 --> 00:48:46,239
Speaker 2: second ever a Brazilian woman nominated for Best Actress, and

876
00:48:46,320 --> 00:48:47,399
Speaker 2: the first was her mother.

877
00:48:48,239 --> 00:48:49,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's no.

878
00:48:49,280 --> 00:48:52,800
Speaker 1: There's some interesting, lots of interesting history and trends and

879
00:48:53,160 --> 00:48:57,359
Speaker 1: things going on, and wide open races in this in

880
00:48:57,360 --> 00:49:00,080
Speaker 1: this Oscar, so this should be it should be one

881
00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:01,920
Speaker 1: of the better ones. It's gotten a little weird at

882
00:49:02,000 --> 00:49:05,120
Speaker 1: times in the past few years for various reasons, and

883
00:49:05,360 --> 00:49:09,239
Speaker 1: I think our collective attention spans are less so. But

884
00:49:09,560 --> 00:49:13,960
Speaker 1: this one, definitely I think has some juice to it. Now,

885
00:49:15,080 --> 00:49:17,680
Speaker 1: speaking of juice, we can just fly through the two

886
00:49:18,239 --> 00:49:26,439
Speaker 1: supporting actor and actress categories because they aren't really.

887
00:49:26,800 --> 00:49:28,400
Speaker 3: Bettable in my opinion.

888
00:49:29,120 --> 00:49:32,799
Speaker 1: If you look at Supporting Actor cheering cocin a Real

889
00:49:32,840 --> 00:49:38,480
Speaker 1: Pain ninety five percent on Calshi, this is a succession category.

890
00:49:38,480 --> 00:49:41,280
Speaker 1: I guess you have Colcin and you have Jeremy Strong

891
00:49:41,880 --> 00:49:45,200
Speaker 1: as is the top two. Jeremy Strong of course with

892
00:49:45,280 --> 00:49:50,320
Speaker 1: the Apprentice, and then in the supporting Actress category Zoe

893
00:49:50,320 --> 00:49:55,840
Speaker 1: Saladagna running away with It at a ninety favorite on

894
00:49:56,719 --> 00:50:02,040
Speaker 1: calsh and some ridiculous numbers if you're just using American

895
00:50:02,080 --> 00:50:06,760
Speaker 1: ons at any of those sites. So, uh yeah, nothing

896
00:50:06,800 --> 00:50:09,000
Speaker 1: to add there, right that this is this is what

897
00:50:09,080 --> 00:50:10,920
Speaker 1: it's gonna be. It's gonna be so Downia, it's going to.

898
00:50:10,960 --> 00:50:14,560
Speaker 2: Be copy Yeah. The only thing I'll say is it's

899
00:50:14,600 --> 00:50:17,439
Speaker 2: it's nice that we've gotten to a point finally where

900
00:50:17,440 --> 00:50:20,080
Speaker 2: we can skip through these I we talked about last

901
00:50:20,160 --> 00:50:24,680
Speaker 2: year's show and uh best Picture, Best Director, best Actor,

902
00:50:25,000 --> 00:50:30,400
Speaker 2: we're all locked up. At the time that Oscar predictions

903
00:50:30,440 --> 00:50:32,359
Speaker 2: were being made, we just got through the first four.

904
00:50:32,440 --> 00:50:35,640
Speaker 2: We talked a ship ton because none of those races

905
00:50:35,760 --> 00:50:40,239
Speaker 2: are clear cut. Of the top six, only these two

906
00:50:40,560 --> 00:50:45,120
Speaker 2: are locked up. Culkin's winning sel Donia's winning. Uh, we

907
00:50:45,200 --> 00:50:47,680
Speaker 2: can move on. If you're doing a pool whatever, just

908
00:50:47,960 --> 00:50:50,040
Speaker 2: mark those two and and don't give it a second thought.

909
00:50:50,760 --> 00:50:52,920
Speaker 1: Yes, let's go right as to screenplay, start with the

910
00:50:53,000 --> 00:51:00,600
Speaker 1: best Original Screenplay. This is one where Honora is the favorite,

911
00:51:00,719 --> 00:51:04,120
Speaker 1: but you do have some challengers here. And this is

912
00:51:04,160 --> 00:51:08,840
Speaker 1: one where you know, there are four films that I've caught.

913
00:51:08,960 --> 00:51:12,120
Speaker 1: Four out of the five do have backing from the

914
00:51:12,120 --> 00:51:14,959
Speaker 1: gold Derby, whether it's the expert, yeah, all, yeah, four films,

915
00:51:14,960 --> 00:51:17,360
Speaker 1: I'm backing from the experts Anora. Then you have the

916
00:51:17,360 --> 00:51:20,879
Speaker 1: substance a real pain. So the substance is about three

917
00:51:20,920 --> 00:51:24,279
Speaker 1: to one, a real pain five to one, and the

918
00:51:24,320 --> 00:51:28,040
Speaker 1: brutalist still sticking around. I think it has one expert

919
00:51:28,160 --> 00:51:30,880
Speaker 1: vote still. Now that's probably I could see that changing.

920
00:51:31,320 --> 00:51:34,520
Speaker 1: So I do think it kind of comes down to

921
00:51:35,719 --> 00:51:37,720
Speaker 1: does Honora get upset here?

922
00:51:38,880 --> 00:51:42,160
Speaker 3: And if it does, by.

923
00:51:43,480 --> 00:51:47,640
Speaker 1: Hmm, and I think the value is on a real pain,

924
00:51:48,160 --> 00:51:49,719
Speaker 1: it's you know, it's five or six to.

925
00:51:49,719 --> 00:51:51,319
Speaker 3: One, you know it.

926
00:51:51,960 --> 00:51:54,759
Speaker 1: I'm not holding my breast, you know, I don't know

927
00:51:54,760 --> 00:51:58,200
Speaker 1: how you feel about this, because I still think, you know,

928
00:51:58,360 --> 00:52:03,520
Speaker 1: Anora strong position still the most likely Best Picture winner,

929
00:52:04,040 --> 00:52:06,799
Speaker 1: And if you look back on gold Derby, the only

930
00:52:06,880 --> 00:52:12,920
Speaker 1: two upsets have been undervalued Best Picture winners. It was

931
00:52:13,000 --> 00:52:16,759
Speaker 1: everything everywhere, all at once, and in green Brook in

932
00:52:16,840 --> 00:52:19,760
Speaker 1: this category they ended up winning even though they weren't

933
00:52:19,760 --> 00:52:23,080
Speaker 1: the favorite, and then they went on to win Best Picture.

934
00:52:23,560 --> 00:52:26,719
Speaker 3: But that that just points to Anura winning this.

935
00:52:26,800 --> 00:52:32,279
Speaker 1: Category, you know, because like gold Derby is predicting it

936
00:52:32,360 --> 00:52:35,200
Speaker 1: to be upset, it's not. It's not like it's not

937
00:52:35,239 --> 00:52:37,320
Speaker 1: as much of a short thing as maybe it seems.

938
00:52:37,360 --> 00:52:40,279
Speaker 1: So I do think there's a little value though, on

939
00:52:40,320 --> 00:52:44,359
Speaker 1: a real pain. That's what we see in the gold

940
00:52:44,400 --> 00:52:47,600
Speaker 1: Derby predictions, and that just you know, when you look

941
00:52:47,640 --> 00:52:51,200
Speaker 1: at five six, five or six to one odds and

942
00:52:51,920 --> 00:52:55,440
Speaker 1: it's essentially in the third place slot, whereas gold Derby's

943
00:52:55,440 --> 00:52:59,680
Speaker 1: treating it more like the most likely one to upset. Noora,

944
00:53:00,000 --> 00:53:01,920
Speaker 1: do you think it's worth a sprinkle? But this is

945
00:53:02,360 --> 00:53:05,240
Speaker 1: admittedly not one of my favorite long shot plays.

946
00:53:05,280 --> 00:53:05,759
Speaker 3: What about you?

947
00:53:05,760 --> 00:53:08,480
Speaker 2: What do you think here we align on a real

948
00:53:08,520 --> 00:53:11,719
Speaker 2: pain being the it's a real pain or nothing essentially

949
00:53:11,960 --> 00:53:16,440
Speaker 2: as a bet. The couple interesting data points here you

950
00:53:16,560 --> 00:53:21,879
Speaker 2: mentioned the best at picture parallel on the flip side

951
00:53:21,880 --> 00:53:23,799
Speaker 2: and a point against a real pain is that a

952
00:53:23,840 --> 00:53:27,959
Speaker 2: film hasn't won this category without being nominated for Best

953
00:53:28,000 --> 00:53:31,920
Speaker 2: Picture since Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind twenty years ago.

954
00:53:32,560 --> 00:53:34,480
Speaker 2: Anora and the Substance or Best Picture nomine is a

955
00:53:34,520 --> 00:53:38,240
Speaker 2: real Pain is not, so that makes it tough. Usually

956
00:53:38,280 --> 00:53:40,359
Speaker 2: there is a strong parallel between the winner and this

957
00:53:40,440 --> 00:53:45,080
Speaker 2: category and at least being nominated for Best Picture. Another

958
00:53:45,120 --> 00:53:47,719
Speaker 2: thing that makes this interesting is the way that some

959
00:53:47,800 --> 00:53:53,680
Speaker 2: of these precursors shows qualify films for or eligibility. Let's

960
00:53:53,680 --> 00:54:00,000
Speaker 2: say so, for example, a noor One at the Writer's

961
00:54:00,360 --> 00:54:02,520
Speaker 2: that's one of the main reasons that it's favored here.

962
00:54:02,520 --> 00:54:06,200
Speaker 2: The Substance wasn't eligible for Best Original Screenplay at the WGA,

963
00:54:06,320 --> 00:54:08,439
Speaker 2: so Nora and the Substance didn't go head to head there,

964
00:54:08,960 --> 00:54:11,160
Speaker 2: And and Noorra has had quite a few losses. They

965
00:54:11,160 --> 00:54:13,600
Speaker 2: lost to the Golden Globes to Conclave that that was

966
00:54:13,640 --> 00:54:16,160
Speaker 2: a combined category of the Golden Globes. Conclaves is nominated

967
00:54:16,160 --> 00:54:20,080
Speaker 2: in Adapted Screenplay, but it didn't win there the Critics'

968
00:54:20,120 --> 00:54:23,040
Speaker 2: Choice Awards, the Substance beat it Nora head to head.

969
00:54:24,040 --> 00:54:26,080
Speaker 2: And at the BAFT does a Real Pain beat it

970
00:54:26,200 --> 00:54:29,680
Speaker 2: head to head? So Yeah, I think this is there's

971
00:54:29,680 --> 00:54:32,720
Speaker 2: a really good shot here for an upset. This isn't

972
00:54:33,040 --> 00:54:37,880
Speaker 2: my best bet by any means. Both of the models

973
00:54:37,920 --> 00:54:41,040
Speaker 2: I've referenced earlier, ben z Ausmer, Cole Curtis have a

974
00:54:41,120 --> 00:54:43,520
Speaker 2: Nora as the favorite, but at forty and forty four

975
00:54:43,520 --> 00:54:47,640
Speaker 2: percent respectively. Curtis has a real Pain at thirty nine

976
00:54:47,680 --> 00:54:53,360
Speaker 2: percent as the most likely challenger. Zausmer has the substance

977
00:54:53,400 --> 00:54:55,960
Speaker 2: at twenty eight percent and a real pain at eleven percent.

978
00:54:56,160 --> 00:54:58,560
Speaker 2: Salzemer actually has a real pain behind the brutalist, which

979
00:54:58,600 --> 00:55:02,560
Speaker 2: is kind of interesting to me. But even still, given

980
00:55:02,840 --> 00:55:07,719
Speaker 2: the points in the other model, I think that I

981
00:55:07,800 --> 00:55:09,759
Speaker 2: will be betting a little bit on a real pain

982
00:55:09,880 --> 00:55:12,640
Speaker 2: at the plus five hundred to six hundred range. It's

983
00:55:12,680 --> 00:55:15,640
Speaker 2: either bet that or pass on this category in my opinion.

984
00:55:16,239 --> 00:55:18,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, and this kind of goes back to.

985
00:55:19,719 --> 00:55:23,080
Speaker 1: You know why some people might be listening and maybe

986
00:55:23,120 --> 00:55:26,279
Speaker 1: you're just more of an Oscar betting fan. You're not

987
00:55:26,320 --> 00:55:31,080
Speaker 1: really familiar with the thought process that goes into making

988
00:55:31,120 --> 00:55:35,560
Speaker 1: wagers and deciding how you're going to play these markets.

989
00:55:36,040 --> 00:55:41,040
Speaker 1: So what the reason why I think we should be

990
00:55:41,040 --> 00:55:47,040
Speaker 1: betting a real pain is because again, it has this

991
00:55:47,719 --> 00:55:52,719
Speaker 1: support from these gold Derby experts, and they know all

992
00:55:52,760 --> 00:55:56,239
Speaker 1: this stuff like they know that just like I, you know,

993
00:55:56,480 --> 00:55:58,640
Speaker 1: and you both we could kind of talk ourselves out

994
00:55:58,680 --> 00:56:02,080
Speaker 1: of it and into a norm very easily. They know

995
00:56:02,200 --> 00:56:04,520
Speaker 1: that too, They could do the same. And there's still

996
00:56:05,440 --> 00:56:09,520
Speaker 1: a lot more support for it than in the market

997
00:56:09,520 --> 00:56:13,960
Speaker 1: at large. And they're the experts. And so you're gonna

998
00:56:14,000 --> 00:56:16,120
Speaker 1: lose more than you're gonna miss out on games. To

999
00:56:16,120 --> 00:56:17,880
Speaker 1: put it, you know, in kind of a stock market

1000
00:56:17,880 --> 00:56:22,520
Speaker 1: way terminology, you're gonna miss out on games if you're

1001
00:56:22,520 --> 00:56:26,600
Speaker 1: not taking advantage of these spots. Because remember, you know,

1002
00:56:27,760 --> 00:56:30,239
Speaker 1: six to one, five to one, you only have to

1003
00:56:30,280 --> 00:56:33,680
Speaker 1: win once ahead of every five times. You only have

1004
00:56:33,760 --> 00:56:36,720
Speaker 1: to win once out of every six times to break

1005
00:56:36,760 --> 00:56:39,839
Speaker 1: even on a bet like that. So will it win

1006
00:56:39,920 --> 00:56:41,959
Speaker 1: every time? Will every one of these go your way?

1007
00:56:42,040 --> 00:56:46,040
Speaker 1: Absolutely not? But there's only twenty three categories. This only

1008
00:56:46,080 --> 00:56:49,600
Speaker 1: happens once a year. If this is your thing, and

1009
00:56:49,640 --> 00:56:52,960
Speaker 1: you're sitting here listening to us fools ramble about it

1010
00:56:53,000 --> 00:56:57,120
Speaker 1: for an hour or probably longer, at this point, I

1011
00:56:57,200 --> 00:56:59,359
Speaker 1: think you should be taking these these long shots, these

1012
00:56:59,560 --> 00:57:03,200
Speaker 1: shots here, and that's why, that's why we do this.

1013
00:57:03,280 --> 00:57:06,120
Speaker 1: So that's kind of why we're saying, hey, it's not

1014
00:57:06,200 --> 00:57:08,919
Speaker 1: the most likely a long shot to hit, but there's

1015
00:57:08,960 --> 00:57:12,480
Speaker 1: definitely value there and there is a case for it,

1016
00:57:12,640 --> 00:57:16,640
Speaker 1: and that's how you got to look at each of

1017
00:57:16,640 --> 00:57:20,880
Speaker 1: these categories. So with that being said, we can move

1018
00:57:21,160 --> 00:57:23,560
Speaker 1: to adapted screenplay. That's another quick one.

1019
00:57:23,640 --> 00:57:24,360
Speaker 3: I think.

1020
00:57:25,680 --> 00:57:31,280
Speaker 1: You haven't our outline written conclave is winning, so pretty

1021
00:57:31,320 --> 00:57:35,560
Speaker 1: good and dry here minus eleven hundred in the Betty markets,

1022
00:57:35,800 --> 00:57:38,560
Speaker 1: there's no real way that it gets upset here. I

1023
00:57:38,600 --> 00:57:40,560
Speaker 1: think it's pretty pretty good bet and I will say

1024
00:57:40,560 --> 00:57:44,880
Speaker 1: this is the overwhelming favorite among the experts and everyone

1025
00:57:44,880 --> 00:57:47,200
Speaker 1: else at gold Derby as well. There has not been

1026
00:57:47,200 --> 00:57:52,480
Speaker 1: an upset in this category since the aforementioned Birdman Grand

1027
00:57:52,520 --> 00:57:55,560
Speaker 1: Budapest Hotel, and that was in twenty fourteen, so it's

1028
00:57:55,600 --> 00:57:59,400
Speaker 1: been it's been a decade. This one tends to be

1029
00:57:59,600 --> 00:58:02,240
Speaker 1: an easy gonna call, and I don't think this year

1030
00:58:02,280 --> 00:58:06,200
Speaker 1: is gonna be any different. So great stuff Colin again.

1031
00:58:06,280 --> 00:58:09,400
Speaker 1: You can find him on all social media at cow

1032
00:58:09,520 --> 00:58:12,640
Speaker 1: Hit Church. That's gonna wrap it up for our major categories.

1033
00:58:12,640 --> 00:58:15,640
Speaker 1: But don't worry, we will be right back here because

1034
00:58:15,680 --> 00:58:19,440
Speaker 1: as you can tell, we got a lot of bets here,

1035
00:58:19,480 --> 00:58:22,720
Speaker 1: and we didn't even get to the most fun categories

1036
00:58:22,760 --> 00:58:25,400
Speaker 1: because there are some some juicy long shots and some

1037
00:58:26,000 --> 00:58:28,200
Speaker 1: great odds to bet. So we'll have a whole second

1038
00:58:28,200 --> 00:58:33,160
Speaker 1: episode where we touch on every non Top eight category

1039
00:58:33,480 --> 00:58:34,400
Speaker 1: that we're betting.

1040
00:58:34,160 --> 00:58:36,040
Speaker 3: Which is pretty much almost all of them.

1041
00:58:36,080 --> 00:58:39,240
Speaker 1: So you want to go check that out and be

1042
00:58:39,360 --> 00:58:42,480
Speaker 1: sure if you're into betting. Down the free award winning

1043
00:58:42,720 --> 00:58:44,320
Speaker 1: Action Network app as well.

1044
00:58:44,360 --> 00:58:45,120
Speaker 3: It's really awesome.

1045
00:58:45,200 --> 00:58:47,479
Speaker 1: You can follow expert picks, you can track your own

1046
00:58:48,200 --> 00:58:52,800
Speaker 1: great app. But for Colin Witchurch, I'm Chris Raybond. Until

1047
00:58:52,840 --> 00:58:55,959
Speaker 1: next time, Let's get this money, all.

1048
00:58:55,920 --> 00:58:57,880
Speaker 3: Right, You've really made us a night to remember it

1049
00:58:57,960 --> 00:59:00,959
Speaker 3: every way. Now let's go party till dawn.

1050
00:59:05,640 --> 00:59:09,120
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1051
00:59:09,520 --> 00:59:12,360
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1052
00:59:12,640 --> 00:59:15,280
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1053
00:59:15,360 --> 00:59:16,120
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler