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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go throwing. We're sending up to

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Speaker 2: cash town.

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Speaker 1: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to win.

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Speaker 2: God, that's incredible. Big bank, small bank. I like to

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Speaker 2: make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate kaboy wanna pull.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to another edition of the Action Network Podcast. I

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Speaker 1: am your host, Chris Raybon, and this is the Week

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Speaker 1: fifteen NFL betting edition. We'll be breaking down our top

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Speaker 1: six spread bets in the Sunday six pack. Then we'll

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Speaker 1: give you our favorite over under the week. We'll talk teasers,

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Speaker 1: will talk moneyline, underdog parlays, we'll talk a little bit

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Speaker 1: of in case you are still alive, and of course

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Speaker 1: we will start by breaking down the Thursday night football game.

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Speaker 1: But just a quick reminder, if you haven't already going

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Speaker 1: download the Action Network app. You can see real time

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Speaker 1: odds scores, track your bets, all that in real time,

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Speaker 1: as well as follow experts like myself and the man

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Speaker 1: that's about to join me on the podcast, mister Stuckey.

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Speaker 1: So be sure to download the Action Network app if

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Speaker 1: you have not already really a great app just for

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Speaker 1: normal box score tracking and things of that nature, as

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Speaker 1: well as all the betting features and capabilities. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's get into the Thursday Night football preview.

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Speaker 2: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday Night Football. So for Week fifteen, we

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Speaker 1: have a matchup between the five and eight New York

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Speaker 1: Jets and the eleven and two Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens

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Speaker 1: favored by sixteen points, getting sixty two percent of the

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Speaker 1: best seventy eight percent of the money, so the big

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Speaker 1: money is still coming in on that spread. The total

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Speaker 1: is forty five and the over getting sixty three percent

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Speaker 1: of the best, but only fifty nine percent of the

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Speaker 1: dollars stuck. What's going on? How is your week? And

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Speaker 1: what do you think of Je's Ravens?

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Speaker 2: What's going on? Brother? Another good NFL week. It was

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Speaker 2: made by the Rams Seahawks game on Sunday night. Rams

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Speaker 2: luckily came through for me. It was another good week,

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Speaker 2: but you know we're on to the next trying to

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Speaker 2: find some winners this week. A trend will here throughout

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Speaker 2: this week is injuries. Trying to keep track of you

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Speaker 2: and I have been talking about this all week, trying

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Speaker 2: to keep track of all the injuries. This week has

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Speaker 2: been just an added job, you know. It's I can't

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Speaker 2: believe it was week fifteen, and I don't know how

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Speaker 2: we've got here already. But let's enjoy the games, even

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Speaker 2: the bad games. Enjoy every game, Enjoy even the bucks

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Speaker 2: Lions the world while you can on these Sundays. But

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Speaker 2: in regards to the Thursday night matchup, it's I mean,

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Speaker 2: the spread is high. Look, whenever you see a team

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Speaker 2: catching over fourteen points, I always say, Okay, can I

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Speaker 2: make a case for this team in the NFL? And

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Speaker 2: I don't know if I can here with the Jets,

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Speaker 2: I really don't. And you know, one of the things

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Speaker 2: that I've always said with the Ravens this year is

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Speaker 2: there's a shock factor, right with their unique offense with

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Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson. Teams aren't used to seeing him and the Ravens,

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Speaker 2: and they get out and they get a lead, right,

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Speaker 2: so they'll come out and the Ravens will punch you

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Speaker 2: in the mouth or one of the best teams in

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Speaker 2: the NFL in the first quarter, and then they can

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Speaker 2: play their defense how they want to play their defense,

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Speaker 2: which is man up on the outside and blitz everyone.

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Speaker 2: And these are actually two of the heaviest blitzing teams

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Speaker 2: in the NFL. You have Wake Martindale loves to blitz

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Speaker 2: just the house at all times, and then you have

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Speaker 2: Greg Williams, who likes the blitz as well. The Ravens

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Speaker 2: offensive line and their quarterback is a little more equipped

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Speaker 2: to handle the blitz than Sam Donald and the Jets

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Speaker 2: offensive line. Sam Donald's been under pressure in over forty

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Speaker 2: one percent of his dropbacks. That's second the NFL, behind

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Speaker 2: only Daniel Jones. The other New York quarterback. Lamar has

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Speaker 2: only been pressured around thirty two thirty three percent Ronnie

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Speaker 2: Stanley and that offensive line really helps in that regard.

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Speaker 2: And then when under pressure, Darnold's been one of the

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Speaker 2: worst quarterbacks the NFL, Lamar has been one of the best.

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Speaker 2: The only quarterback that's been better under pressure this year

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Speaker 2: is your boy, Patty Mahomes. So you know, you know,

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Speaker 2: when you look at this game on the surface, you say,

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Speaker 2: the Jets run defense, maybe it can hang against the

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Speaker 2: Ravens and you have, you know, the quad issue for Lamar,

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Speaker 2: He's gonna play, but maybe the Ravens pass a little

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Speaker 2: more than usual. Maybe if they get up they say,

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Speaker 2: all right, let's make sure that we're not running. Lamar.

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Speaker 2: Is a short week, you know, and they get more

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Speaker 2: conservative once they get a lead. So there's two sides

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Speaker 2: to that. But I don't think the Jets run defense

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Speaker 2: is as good as it was, you know, just a

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Speaker 2: few weeks ago. Adams. You have Williams, Leonard Williams or

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Speaker 2: mal Adams. I mean, they're banged up and their secondary

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Speaker 2: is banged up. The one thing I do trust here

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Speaker 2: is the Ravens defense. I think the line is about right.

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Speaker 2: I don't think I could justify laying this number. I

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Speaker 2: would look at the under now. If the Ravens come

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Speaker 2: out throwing, they throw over the Jets, and the short

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Speaker 2: week is going to it just hurts the Jets here,

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Speaker 2: not only on the road they're in inferior team. It's

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Speaker 2: less prep time for Lamar. So I'm looking at the

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Speaker 2: under here, potentially maybe going just with the Jets team

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Speaker 2: total under, you know, in case of just Ravens scoring

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Speaker 2: in the first four or five possessions like we saw

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Speaker 2: against the Rams. So That's where I'm at here. This

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Speaker 2: is a big mismatch for the Ravens. You know, it's

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Speaker 2: healthy the Ravens, and they are scary. It's scary how

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Speaker 2: healthy they are. And I think that they want to

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Speaker 2: get out of here with this game. They want to

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Speaker 2: just get out healthy. So they have a big lead.

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Speaker 2: You could just see them sit and run the ball

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Speaker 2: even quicker than they normally do. How about you? What

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Speaker 2: do you think here?

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Speaker 1: So I'm with you. I actually rode up the under

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Speaker 1: in our betting preview for this game, which will be

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Speaker 1: on Action network dot com and in the Action Network

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Speaker 1: app by the time you listen to this, and my

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Speaker 1: reasoning was pretty similar. I just don't think you know,

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Speaker 1: it usually take too now. Sometimes the Ravens, as you said,

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Speaker 1: they can lay a big number hit and just kind

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Speaker 1: of cover themselves, but usually you need something from the

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Speaker 1: other team, and I just don't see it for the Jets.

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Speaker 1: The Ravens have only allowed one team over the past

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Speaker 1: eight games to even score twenty points, and that was

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Speaker 1: the Patriots, and they scored exactly twenty. They have just

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Speaker 1: been lights out on defense. You mentioned that they're pretty

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Speaker 1: healthy on defense, and the Jets. You know Brian Griffin,

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Speaker 1: who has been a contributor in terms of pass catching.

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Speaker 1: He's out. Bowal Powell backup running back is out. You

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Speaker 1: have Damarius Thomas still banged up, so the Jets are

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Speaker 1: thinner than usual on an offense that can't really afford it.

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Speaker 1: You also have you know, Kelvin Beacham offensive, you know,

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Speaker 1: the left tackle, he's banged up as well. So a

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Speaker 1: lot of injuries for the Jets. And then when you

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Speaker 1: flip it over, Lamar obviously going to play, but didn't.

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Speaker 1: We're a little bit limited in practice, as you mentioned,

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Speaker 1: kind of a game where you want to just get

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Speaker 1: out of their healthy It just doesn't set up really

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Speaker 1: as a total smash spot for the Ravens, a spot

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Speaker 1: where they run up the score. I think if they

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Speaker 1: have some success, and of course they will, it's Lamar

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Speaker 1: Jackson against the bad team. But if they have some success,

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Speaker 1: I think they'll kind of play it, you know, play

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Speaker 1: it close to the vest, run the ball, get Gus

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Speaker 1: Edwards just as he'll involved, and maybe you'll see some

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Speaker 1: Robert Griffin. I like the under. I got it at

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Speaker 1: forty five and a half. It looks like it's forty

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Speaker 1: five across the board at this point, but I think

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Speaker 1: the under is the play in this game.

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Speaker 2: I completely agree it's Ravens or nothing, but I think

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Speaker 2: you're right on the underlook as well.

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Speaker 1: And now it's time for the coaches pep Talk. Is

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Speaker 1: it's gonna be blue Chips breaking Our producer Matt Mitchell

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Speaker 1: very good at what he does, by the way, as

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Speaker 1: evidence by repeated blue Chip references on this podcast. Because

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Speaker 1: he comes up with these things, I just say him.

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Speaker 1: But today it's not blue Chips. It is one of

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Speaker 1: my favorite shows, The Wire. What of I mean, Sopranos

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Speaker 1: is up there, mad Men is up there. We're getting

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Speaker 1: off on a little tangent here, but today's Coaches pep

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Speaker 1: Talk comes to us from the HBO show The Wire,

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Speaker 1: and it goes out to the New York Jets.

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Speaker 2: It's Baltimore, gentlemen, the gods will not save you.

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Speaker 1: Now, let's get into the main event, the Sunday six

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Speaker 1: Pack Thursday for action.

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Speaker 2: Let's crack open the Sunday six Pack.

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Speaker 1: All right, Stuck took back the weed last week with

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Speaker 1: a just an odd week. I had two bets push,

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Speaker 1: which sucks in terms of this contest because I don't

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Speaker 1: get any points for I don't even get a half

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Speaker 1: point for those but you're up forty three forty two.

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Speaker 1: You had first pick this week we got I.

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Speaker 2: Can't pull away. Man. I'm at forty so through this week,

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Speaker 2: my goal, my aggressive goal, is to be at forty

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Speaker 2: two and Io at forty three, and you're at forty two,

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Speaker 2: so that should be one hell of a finish. It

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Speaker 2: wasn't my favorite card, especially with all of the injuries.

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Speaker 2: But you know, I'm going back to something that I

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Speaker 2: always say, I play numbers, not teams, and this is ugly,

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Speaker 2: but I'm for my number two pick this week. I'm

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Speaker 2: going with the Dallas Cowboys plus one and a half

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Speaker 2: or plus one whatever it is right now against the Roads.

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Speaker 2: When this line came out open at four some places

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Speaker 2: three three and a half Cowboys favorite, I said, all right,

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Speaker 2: it's about right. Rams and Cowboys are, you know, pretty close,

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Speaker 2: and now you add in home field for Dallas. But

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Speaker 2: then apparently every single person in the world has decided

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Speaker 2: they want to bet the Rams. And you know, there

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Speaker 2: are reports out in Vegas and in different books that

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Speaker 2: it's nine out of every ten bets are coming in

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Speaker 2: on Therop. So that line has moved drastically. This is

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Speaker 2: the four o'clock National TV game, and everyone is betting

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Speaker 2: the Rams, which is crazy to think everyone usually is

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Speaker 2: betting Dallas. Now, I went on that rat last week

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Speaker 2: about Dallas and couldn't play them against the Bears because

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Speaker 2: of some of the little things that they've been doing

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Speaker 2: or not doing, which is you know, special teams. Their

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Speaker 2: special teams have been brutal, turnovers, penalties, coaching, play calling,

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Speaker 2: well you know, etcetera, etcetera, all these little things that

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Speaker 2: don't necessarily get captured in the box score and are

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Speaker 2: the reason why this team, which is one of the

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Speaker 2: best offenses in the NFL, is six and seven. You

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Speaker 2: can argue, which is crazy, that the Cowboys don't have

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Speaker 2: to win this game. It doesn't mean anything to them

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Speaker 2: in a way. They can lose this and then they

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Speaker 2: just beat the Eagles and the Redskins and they win

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Speaker 2: the division regardless of what else happens. So every week

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Speaker 2: the Cowboys can just lose and it doesn't matter. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 2: the Rams, yes, they need to win pretty much to

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Speaker 2: keep their playoff hopes live. They don't have a shot

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Speaker 2: the division. They're playing for the wildcard. They've been playing

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Speaker 2: a lot better of late. I've bet them the last

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Speaker 2: two weeks against Arizona. I had them big last week

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Speaker 2: against Seattle, but I haven't learned anything new about this team.

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Speaker 2: Their defense is solid. I think last week was more

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Speaker 2: about Seattle and some regression, but the Rams always play

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Speaker 2: went over this in the pod last week. They always

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Speaker 2: play very well against that Seattle defense. That offense just

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Speaker 2: matches up well. It clicks versus them. But this offense

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Speaker 2: still has a lot of issues. That hasn't changed for me.

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Speaker 2: Just because they beat the Cardinals and a Seahawks team

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Speaker 2: that they match up well with, and then the Bears.

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Speaker 2: I mean, nothing really has changed with me for the Rams.

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Speaker 2: This is a team that earlier in the year know

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Speaker 2: if Greg zerline makes a field, well, they win in Seattle.

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Speaker 2: So I just I have to take this as my

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Speaker 2: my two pointer because this line is just got. It's crazy.

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Speaker 2: Now at Dallas plus one and a half, you also

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Speaker 2: have extra prep time for Dallas. Maybe that's a bad thing.

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Speaker 2: With Jason Garrett. They could have cleaned up some things

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Speaker 2: on special teams.

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Speaker 1: Well, I cleaned up their kicker. He's gone.

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Speaker 2: They got a new kicker, kicker which will significantly help.

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Speaker 1: It's the Patriots old kicker though, which is you know,

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Speaker 1: one of their old kickers, so.

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Speaker 2: Well, yeah, it could be worse is where it was

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Speaker 2: where it was going with Mars. They have extra prep time,

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Speaker 2: which you would think only can help, and uh yeah,

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Speaker 2: I just this Rams team has still flawed to me,

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Speaker 2: just because of what they've done the last week. So

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Speaker 2: I'm rolling with the Cowboys. You're catching points at home.

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Speaker 2: If this was minus three where we were open, I

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Speaker 2: probably wouldn't bet it, But you're giving me four or

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Speaker 2: four and a half points of value. Now I'm taking it.

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Speaker 2: So I'll be against the world and just holding my

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Speaker 2: nose back in the Cowboys on Sunday late afternoon.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's you know, it's really you against Jason Garrett,

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Speaker 1: because I think you're right. I think on paper, there's

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Speaker 1: no way the Rams should be a one point road favorite.

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Speaker 1: They're not four points better than the Cowboys on a

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Speaker 1: neutral field. But Jason Garrett, we've talked about this before

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Speaker 1: on the pod. He's now twenty eight thirty six and

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Speaker 1: two against the spread in his career, forty four percent

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Speaker 1: versus winning teams and in the Prescott era ten and

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Speaker 1: seventeen thirty seven percent. So it's really you versus Jason Garrett.

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Speaker 1: That's all it is at this point.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, that's what scares me. But this is

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Speaker 2: also going back to an old principal of mine in

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Speaker 2: the NFL. When betting the NFL on a week to

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Speaker 2: week basis, the overreactions and the most bet on and

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Speaker 2: watched sport are extreme. And this is a classic example.

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Speaker 2: This is last week, everyone wanted the bet, you know,

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Speaker 2: the Cowboys against the Bears. You know, everyone wanted to

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Speaker 2: bet Seattle against the Rams. But now this week everyone

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Speaker 2: has jumped off the Cowboys. The Cowboys stink. I don't

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Speaker 2: want to bet them. And now everyone is on the

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Speaker 2: Rams team. Who a couple weeks ago they were saying stinks.

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Speaker 2: So you know, this is just a classic example. Now

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Speaker 2: you have in the line moved drastically. This is just

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Speaker 2: a Bilow Cell high spot that I believe in. Maybe

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Speaker 2: the Cowboys mess it up again with little things again,

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Speaker 2: but I'm willing to back Dallas here.

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Speaker 1: And to your point, I'm looking at the Action Network

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Speaker 1: app right now. La Dallas is the most bet Sunday

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Speaker 1: game already, even though it's a four to twenty five

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Speaker 1: Eastern start, It's the most bet game where usually you

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Speaker 1: see one of the games on the one o'clock window

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Speaker 1: get the most best, just because people are eager to

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Speaker 1: kind of get some action. In eighty nine percent of

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Speaker 1: the tickets backing the Rams as one point favorites, however,

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Speaker 1: only eighty one percent of the money, So that does

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Speaker 1: indicate this. Probably there's some bigger bets coming in there

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Speaker 1: on the Dallas Cowboys, So I just wanted to point

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Speaker 1: that out for my first pick. I think there is

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Speaker 1: some wet down potential here for the favorite. So going

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Speaker 1: with the Atlanta Falcons plus eleven at sanfordan Cisco stuck.

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Speaker 1: You alluded to it a couple of minutes ago. There

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Speaker 1: were just injuries galore in Week fourteen. You know, I

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Speaker 1: don't know if everyone, you know, even some of the

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Speaker 1: Sharperp people I know, haven't quite made sense of everything yet.

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Speaker 1: So but I mean San Francisco just they got they

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Speaker 1: won the what might go down as the game of

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Speaker 1: the year. They covered versus a new Warrants team that

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00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:23,960
Speaker 1: put up forty six on their on their you know,

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Speaker 1: up to that point vaunted defense. They lost Richard Sherman,

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Speaker 1: He's gonna be out this game. D FOURD. Now that

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Speaker 1: their pass rusher, one of their best pass rusher is

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Speaker 1: going to be out this game. Western Richberg. Their center

300
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Speaker 1: Couteller Tendon out out for the year. So they had

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Speaker 1: some significant injuries in this football game. Jaquiski tark he

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Speaker 1: still looks like he's questionable to play this week. They're

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00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:52,680
Speaker 1: thin at corner. They just resigned Dante Johnson. Kawan Williams

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00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:54,760
Speaker 1: is in a concussion protocol, their slot corner who can

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00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:58,600
Speaker 1: also play outside. So there, San Francisco's down a lot

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Speaker 1: of pieces. And and then you look at Atlanta. Atlanta

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Speaker 1: has been a team that, look, they got to win

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Speaker 1: in the Superdome against the Saints, So this is a

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Speaker 1: team that, you know, it's kind of familiar with, you know,

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Speaker 1: like the Saints style. And I believe that Dirk Cutter,

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Speaker 1: the OC for the Falcons, he's gonna be able to

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Speaker 1: watch the film and kind of look at what some

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Speaker 1: of the things that Saints are able to do against

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Speaker 1: that Niners defense, which is now again more banged up,

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Speaker 1: and take some of those things away. They don't have

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Speaker 1: Michael Thomas and who brees, but they do still have

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Speaker 1: Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. So I think I wouldn't

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Speaker 1: be surprised here if the Falcons are pretty competitive in

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Speaker 1: this one, and I wouldn't even be surprised if they

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Speaker 1: kind of stole a win in just a let down emotional,

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Speaker 1: let down spot. Just kind of an ugly egg laying

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Speaker 1: game for San Francisco Kyle Shanahan. When his teams have

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Speaker 1: been a favorite, they're only four nine and one against

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Speaker 1: the spread thirty one percent. So I like this spot

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Speaker 1: for Atlanta plus eleven. You know, in a let down

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Speaker 1: spot for San Francisco.

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Speaker 2: The injury garage in this game, like many, but specifically

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Speaker 2: in this game is just it's severe and trying to

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Speaker 2: get a hang. Okay, what does this mean for both

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Speaker 2: teams on both sides, especially for the Atlanta offense is tough,

331
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Speaker 2: But the spot is there. You're right in that sweet

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Speaker 2: spot range that you love, right that nine ten eleven

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Speaker 2: point dog. So yeah, I can't I can't argue with

334
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Speaker 2: you there. For my second pick, I am going back

335
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Speaker 2: to an old friend and that friend is the Miami Dolphins,

336
00:16:26,280 --> 00:16:28,520
Speaker 2: and I'm fading them again. The last two weeks did

337
00:16:28,560 --> 00:16:31,120
Speaker 2: it's successfully about three weeks in a row, and the

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00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:33,960
Speaker 2: last two weeks I've split, so I've covered the first half.

339
00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:36,120
Speaker 2: I always split them first half in game, and then

340
00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:39,200
Speaker 2: Miami's come back to cover the game inexplictedly. I still

341
00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:41,520
Speaker 2: don't know how they did that against Philly. But here

342
00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:44,560
Speaker 2: I think the team that Dolphins are playing, the Giants

343
00:16:44,720 --> 00:16:47,400
Speaker 2: are cheap once again at only minus three and a half,

344
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Speaker 2: I'll be splitting it between, you know, first half in game.

345
00:16:50,760 --> 00:16:53,560
Speaker 2: I think the Giants are significantly better. They had a

346
00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:57,680
Speaker 2: significantly better roster. We've already talked about, you know, the

347
00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:00,880
Speaker 2: Dolphins just go. I know, these huge the fantasy community.

348
00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:03,800
Speaker 2: What does people call Laird or laird or whatever. You know,

349
00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:06,919
Speaker 2: maybe he's better than what they had, but they they

350
00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:10,280
Speaker 2: cannot run the ball. The Giants secondary is not necessarily

351
00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:12,480
Speaker 2: a strength, and they are dealing with some injuries, but

352
00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:15,040
Speaker 2: it's just and look to buy me receiving. Core is

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00:17:15,040 --> 00:17:16,560
Speaker 2: also dealing with some injuries. We don't know what the

354
00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:20,000
Speaker 2: status at Devonte Parker's big. That's big and he's been huge.

355
00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:22,320
Speaker 2: And by the way, I think this Giants defensive line,

356
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Speaker 2: which can stop the run, They're they're gonna get pressure

357
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Speaker 2: on Fitzpatrick. I think they're going to dominate this. Just

358
00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:31,800
Speaker 2: this sad sad Miami offensive line, and on the other

359
00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:34,520
Speaker 2: side of the ball, you should get a healthier Giants offense.

360
00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:37,160
Speaker 2: Now you know, you should see Tate back. You should

361
00:17:37,200 --> 00:17:39,600
Speaker 2: you could potentially see Ingram back, and I don't care

362
00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:42,399
Speaker 2: who plays quarterback. The difference to me between Eli and

363
00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:46,119
Speaker 2: Daniel Jones's marginal at best. You know, Daniel Jones has

364
00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:50,000
Speaker 2: a little more raw talent right now as far as

365
00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:51,399
Speaker 2: running the ball. He can bring a little more of

366
00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:53,360
Speaker 2: the table. But he also is giving the ball away

367
00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:55,600
Speaker 2: at will. So there's some things to like about both

368
00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:57,680
Speaker 2: of them. Just if you know, it was announced that

369
00:17:57,760 --> 00:17:59,639
Speaker 2: Jones goes, and I think it's gonna be Eli. You know,

370
00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:02,040
Speaker 2: if Joe goes, I wouldn't move the line, and or

371
00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:04,480
Speaker 2: if elios. So you know, some people say it's one point,

372
00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:06,920
Speaker 2: some people say it's a half. It doesn't matter to me.

373
00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:10,320
Speaker 2: Eli looked fine enough last week. The Giants were still trying.

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Speaker 2: By the way, it would just be right in the

375
00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:14,520
Speaker 2: universe for Eli to win this game, because I believe

376
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Speaker 2: he's one game under five hundred for his career, and

377
00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:20,159
Speaker 2: Eli needs to finishes the playoff goat as with a

378
00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:23,240
Speaker 2: five hundred overall record. You know, similar to Joe Flacco.

379
00:18:23,359 --> 00:18:26,000
Speaker 2: But I just think the Giants are are They're not

380
00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:28,560
Speaker 2: just a half point better than the Dolphins. And I

381
00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:30,480
Speaker 2: can tell you that if you just look at these rosters.

382
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Speaker 2: So I like the Giants here. I think they're cheap

383
00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:34,840
Speaker 2: again against the Dolphins, So I'm willing to throw my

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00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:35,879
Speaker 2: money up against Miami.

385
00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:39,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're significantly more talented. And I think that DeVante

386
00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:43,200
Speaker 1: parker concussion wounds large because if he's not out there,

387
00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:45,720
Speaker 1: that kind of changes things for the Miami offense, which

388
00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:49,359
Speaker 1: essentially we have been getting by by just Fitzpatrick chucking

389
00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:51,879
Speaker 1: it to Parker and Parker putting up you know, one

390
00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:56,520
Speaker 1: hundred yards here too, tds there. So Isaiah Ford had

391
00:18:56,520 --> 00:18:58,639
Speaker 1: a pretty big game, but you know, Allen Hearn's not

392
00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:01,320
Speaker 1: really a difference maker at this point his careers. So

393
00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:05,520
Speaker 1: Dolphins would be at a significant disadvantage in the past

394
00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:07,000
Speaker 1: game to where I don't know if they could come

395
00:19:07,080 --> 00:19:09,840
Speaker 1: back as effectively as they have been. So yeah, I can't.

396
00:19:09,880 --> 00:19:12,679
Speaker 1: I can't argue with that one either, even though Miami

397
00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:15,760
Speaker 1: has been kind of surprising people a little bit lately

398
00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:18,080
Speaker 1: and crazily enough has the better record, which I think

399
00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:21,240
Speaker 1: is probably why there's value on the Giants here. For

400
00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:25,840
Speaker 1: my second pick, I am going with another one of

401
00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:29,600
Speaker 1: these sweet spot teams, the Denver Broncos nine and a

402
00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:32,960
Speaker 1: half point underdogs at Kansas City. And this is pretty

403
00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:35,400
Speaker 1: off brand for me because I'm usually fading the Broncos

404
00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:38,840
Speaker 1: and backing the Chiefs in certain spots here and there.

405
00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:41,880
Speaker 1: They're usually overvalue. But nine to ten point underdogs, first

406
00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:44,840
Speaker 1: of all, just get it off out of here, right off. Yeah,

407
00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:48,080
Speaker 1: that is on brand. So tweeted about this, fired off

408
00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:50,359
Speaker 1: a couple of screenshots from the action app the other

409
00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:53,120
Speaker 1: night Monday Night Football, because the Giants were also nine

410
00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:55,040
Speaker 1: and a half. I think they close it nine or

411
00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:57,200
Speaker 1: nine and a half, I forget, but in that sweet

412
00:19:57,240 --> 00:20:01,640
Speaker 1: spot range. And since twenty fifteen, according to our bet

413
00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:06,280
Speaker 1: Labs database, nine to ten point underdogs forty two nine

414
00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:10,359
Speaker 1: and two against the spread eighty two point four percent.

415
00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:13,719
Speaker 1: Still a relatively small sample. Yes, we're truncating it at

416
00:20:13,720 --> 00:20:15,520
Speaker 1: twenty fifteen. It's not quite as good. If you go

417
00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:19,560
Speaker 1: back further, it's still profitable. But uh, it's just one

418
00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:21,440
Speaker 1: of those spots where it's it's number one. It's just

419
00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:23,879
Speaker 1: tough for it's a tough cover when you have a

420
00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:26,520
Speaker 1: team that's not like just a total like sometimes you

421
00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:29,160
Speaker 1: get these total mismatches like Ravens Jets, where it's like, okay,

422
00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:34,159
Speaker 1: it's sixteen, and you know you're probably expecting the favorite

423
00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:37,160
Speaker 1: to win by at least two touchdowns, but that nine

424
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:40,080
Speaker 1: to ten point sweet spot means one team is better,

425
00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:43,320
Speaker 1: but they're not quite significantly better to where it's a lock.

426
00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:45,919
Speaker 1: And those spots are just tough to cover. And then

427
00:20:46,080 --> 00:20:47,399
Speaker 1: the Brock explained to people too.

428
00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:50,199
Speaker 2: People are like, well, it's random nine to ten to eleven, right,

429
00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:53,720
Speaker 2: Like why don't you cut fourteen to six, fifteen to sixteen,

430
00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:55,720
Speaker 2: and when there are spreads that are over seventeen that

431
00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:58,080
Speaker 2: we plice that up too, But it's we always, I

432
00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:00,000
Speaker 2: always say, and you said as well, it's very difficult

433
00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:02,800
Speaker 2: to cover double digits in the NFL. Teams don't run

434
00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:06,040
Speaker 2: up the score right once you're they're up ten or fourteen,

435
00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:07,600
Speaker 2: then you know you're just gonna sit on the ball.

436
00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:09,399
Speaker 2: You just secure the win. You also a lot of

437
00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:11,320
Speaker 2: times are playing competent quarterbacks. You can get in the

438
00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:13,840
Speaker 2: back door against the pre event defense, and you know,

439
00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:16,399
Speaker 2: so that nine to eleven sums up a lot of

440
00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:19,480
Speaker 2: those with while removing what you just said, a complete

441
00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:22,520
Speaker 2: mismatch on paper where the line is fourteen sixteen stevens

442
00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:24,399
Speaker 2: and you might not be playing a competent quarterback, you

443
00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:25,840
Speaker 2: might not be able to get in the back door,

444
00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:28,040
Speaker 2: and you know the spread, you might be down twenty

445
00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:30,080
Speaker 2: one to twenty four. You might have a backup quarterback

446
00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:32,399
Speaker 2: in there. I think that's why it is the sweet spot.

447
00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:34,919
Speaker 1: I do want to point out that, like, I am

448
00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:36,840
Speaker 1: not one of those people who just kind of blindly

449
00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:39,880
Speaker 1: bets trends. I like when a trend kind of supports

450
00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:42,080
Speaker 1: a pick. I already like it because that's kind of

451
00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:44,400
Speaker 1: what we're doing in betting. We're trying to maximize our edge.

452
00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:47,639
Speaker 1: So if there's a spot I already like for matchup reasons,

453
00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:50,280
Speaker 1: on field reasons, and then on top of that, you know,

454
00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:52,720
Speaker 1: history has kind of told us that, you know, hey,

455
00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:55,960
Speaker 1: be on the alert. The spots are where there's an edge.

456
00:21:56,359 --> 00:21:56,800
Speaker 2: I like that.

457
00:21:56,960 --> 00:22:01,240
Speaker 1: So yeah, I would never blindly bet any thing, you know,

458
00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:04,679
Speaker 1: just for the record, but this has been an amazing spot,

459
00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:06,960
Speaker 1: one of the best spots for if you're a sharp

460
00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:09,520
Speaker 1: better to kind of look out for, because I think

461
00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:11,480
Speaker 1: if you're a casual better and you're kind of newer

462
00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:14,399
Speaker 1: to the show or newer to betting. One thing we

463
00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:17,680
Speaker 1: should point out is that casual betters tend to pick

464
00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:20,240
Speaker 1: favorites and they tend to pick overs, and so those

465
00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:23,840
Speaker 1: are usually overvalued, and as a result, you get more

466
00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:27,159
Speaker 1: value more often than not on the underdog and the

467
00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:30,000
Speaker 1: under Now that's not a blanket statement. There are spots

468
00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:33,080
Speaker 1: where you like the opposite, but just generally speaking, you

469
00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:35,639
Speaker 1: should be on the lookout for spreads just like this one.

470
00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:39,760
Speaker 1: So back to the matchup at hand Denver. In this case,

471
00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:42,960
Speaker 1: when you're getting nine and a half points, the variants

472
00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:45,400
Speaker 1: and the unknown factor works in your favor. We don't

473
00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:48,920
Speaker 1: know exactly if Drew Wock really truly is a competent quarterback.

474
00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:52,080
Speaker 1: I mean that they beat the Houston Texans, whose defense

475
00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:55,120
Speaker 1: is really bad now without JJ Watt, and of course

476
00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:57,680
Speaker 1: they traded Crowny to Seattle earlier in the year, so

477
00:22:58,040 --> 00:23:00,199
Speaker 1: you can't really look at those thirty eight points they

478
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 1: put up in that game and say, oh my god,

479
00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:05,119
Speaker 1: Drew lock has has arrived or anything like that. I

480
00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:07,920
Speaker 1: think that Houston defense is surprisingly bad, and I know

481
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:11,520
Speaker 1: we'll talk about that in a little bit, But at

482
00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 1: the same time, you know they are two and zero

483
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:16,040
Speaker 1: with Locke, they are covering the spread by an average

484
00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:19,800
Speaker 1: of fourteen point eight points per game in those two games.

485
00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:23,520
Speaker 1: And at the same time, you know their defense is

486
00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 1: pretty solid their tenth and weighted DVOA which just waits

487
00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:31,159
Speaker 1: the more recent games a little more heavily. So this

488
00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:34,200
Speaker 1: is not a total mismatch of a total spot where

489
00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:37,160
Speaker 1: you know, Kansas City just has It's not like the Raiders.

490
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:38,680
Speaker 1: I guess I should say because that was one of

491
00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:42,120
Speaker 1: the spots where I Backkse and went against a nine

492
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:45,400
Speaker 1: to ten point you know trend and it actually worked out.

493
00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:48,480
Speaker 1: So again, don't blind bat anything. But I like this

494
00:23:48,520 --> 00:23:50,159
Speaker 1: spot for Denver. I think they could kind of hang

495
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 1: in the game and drew lock in that offense Courtland

496
00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:56,280
Speaker 1: Sutton's been balling. Hope no offense can go to the

497
00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:58,760
Speaker 1: tight end because I think that is that's going to

498
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:01,080
Speaker 1: be key to kind of exploiting that Bagnoah defense that's

499
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:03,840
Speaker 1: been really good at funneling action, you know, away from

500
00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:07,200
Speaker 1: the perimeter and not getting beat on the outside or

501
00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:08,920
Speaker 1: deep down the field. I think fan would make a

502
00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:11,480
Speaker 1: difference in this game. Even though Denver is pretty deep

503
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:14,360
Speaker 1: at tight end behind him. I think he's the guy

504
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 1: that makes a difference athletically, so looking out for that.

505
00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:20,479
Speaker 1: But still like this spot for Denver regardless. I think

506
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:23,440
Speaker 1: they're just a tough team to beat, a tough team

507
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 1: to pull away from minute. They also played Minnesota Coast

508
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:29,639
Speaker 1: lost by only four with Brandon Allen, so so like

509
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:32,920
Speaker 1: Denver to hang around to this game at plus nine

510
00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:34,639
Speaker 1: and a half in casey, I.

511
00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:37,280
Speaker 2: Would see if if anyone's out there listening, see if

512
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:39,640
Speaker 2: it's ten pops. But at nine and a half, yeah,

513
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:42,480
Speaker 2: I think that's the spot. I like the matchup. You

514
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:44,560
Speaker 2: bring up a great point. I feel like I say

515
00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:46,800
Speaker 2: this going through every game, but Fat down the seam

516
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:49,600
Speaker 2: and his catching ability. If he can play, I think

517
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 2: it will be an added boost to the Denver offense.

518
00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:54,440
Speaker 2: But yeah, I think they can keep this close. Here

519
00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:56,919
Speaker 2: you have do you have any intel on Mahomes. I mean,

520
00:24:57,000 --> 00:24:59,159
Speaker 2: I know that's he's gonna play, but he's he's just

521
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:02,640
Speaker 2: dealing with nagging this and nagging at the time all

522
00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:03,120
Speaker 2: the time.

523
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:05,359
Speaker 1: It seems like it's been like all season he's been

524
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:07,760
Speaker 1: dealing with And this is another reason why we're looking

525
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:10,680
Speaker 1: for these underdog spots because there's always going to be

526
00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 1: regression to the me not just in for no reason.

527
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:15,360
Speaker 1: But a lot of times you say it's just randomness,

528
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:18,520
Speaker 1: but it really is just you know, things like injury

529
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:21,080
Speaker 1: rates in the in themselves, you know you can't stay

530
00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:24,600
Speaker 1: healthy forever, and sometimes you just get it is a

531
00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:27,560
Speaker 1: bit of luck where it's kind of calculated luck where hey,

532
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:30,879
Speaker 1: you might benefit from a guy like Patrick Mahomes banging

533
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:32,720
Speaker 1: his hand in the game and that that make it

534
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:35,000
Speaker 1: tough for them for them to cover. So I don't

535
00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:37,560
Speaker 1: think I don't have any specific intel. I know he's

536
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:39,879
Speaker 1: just a little you know, the hand is not like

537
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 1: it's not one hundred percent. But just like Lamar, he's

538
00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:44,280
Speaker 1: going to be out there. Looks like Jameis Winston's gonna

539
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 1: be out there for the books bucks. So I think

540
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:48,119
Speaker 1: these are pretty much non issues. Did an injury study

541
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:50,359
Speaker 1: for Fantasy a couple of years ago where I looked

542
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:53,720
Speaker 1: at how players perform versus when they're on the injury

543
00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:56,600
Speaker 1: report versus often a given week, and quarterbacks was the

544
00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:59,879
Speaker 1: only of the skill positions where it really had no effect. Essentially,

545
00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:03,160
Speaker 1: if a quarterback's healthy enough to play any game, they're

546
00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:05,520
Speaker 1: usually it's usually not going to impact the bottom line

547
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 1: stats like it can impact them in a specific situation obviously,

548
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:12,719
Speaker 1: as we've seen throughout the year with Mahomes. But as

549
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:14,360
Speaker 1: far as going into the game, I don't think it's

550
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 1: giving Den for any added edge.

551
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:19,200
Speaker 2: Well, I think that's a natural transition into my third pick,

552
00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:24,480
Speaker 2: which is the Detroit Lions plus three plus three and

553
00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:26,080
Speaker 2: a half. Where's this line sitting.

554
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:27,960
Speaker 1: I think it's still sitting at three and a half.

555
00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:30,600
Speaker 2: The Detroit Lions plus three and a half. I still

556
00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:33,040
Speaker 2: like it at three. Obviously. Look, this is something that

557
00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:36,440
Speaker 2: we talk about with trends in that Jameis Winston as

558
00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:41,399
Speaker 2: a favorite. He's six thirteen and one against the spread

559
00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:44,480
Speaker 2: as a favorite, not covering by an average of a

560
00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:47,760
Speaker 2: three points per game. The only quarterback active quarterback that's

561
00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:52,800
Speaker 2: less profitable than Jameis Winston is can you guess Derek Carr?

562
00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 2: Maybe he's up there, but it's Philip your man filed?

563
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:58,080
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, how could I forget him? Oh my god?

564
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:02,960
Speaker 2: Who was operted for that talking trash and then apologizing

565
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:05,919
Speaker 2: and then saw Keenan Allen and then continue to talk trash? Uh,

566
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:09,160
Speaker 2: which was one of the oddest interactions I've ever seen.

567
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:12,440
Speaker 2: We generally like to fade as a favorite. Right, he's

568
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,159
Speaker 2: gonna turn the ball over a couple of times. And

569
00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:17,320
Speaker 2: now you know you said with an injury that with

570
00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:21,360
Speaker 2: quarterback injuries overall, it might not have a huge impact.

571
00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 2: But you're talking about a guy with a fracture and

572
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:26,879
Speaker 2: a thumb and his throwing it. So maybe that that

573
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 2: adds to another fumble. Right, Maybe maybe it makes it

574
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 2: more accurate, but maybe I would imagine his grip is good,

575
00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:39,040
Speaker 2: so a ball gets swatted out. But basically, what this

576
00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:42,920
Speaker 2: comes down, what this comes down to is, by the way, again,

577
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 2: injuries on both sides, you have no Marvin Jones. Now

578
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:49,560
Speaker 2: for the Lions, uh, you know, Derrek Blah obviously a quarterback.

579
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:52,400
Speaker 2: The running backs are banged up, can't really run against

580
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:57,200
Speaker 2: the Bucks. Lions they've been they showed flashes the last

581
00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:00,080
Speaker 2: couple of weeks, but they're not a running team. And

582
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:03,640
Speaker 2: you don't have Evans Mike Evans for Tampa. So when

583
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:06,879
Speaker 2: you look at it, I'll take and blow. Looked awful

584
00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:09,399
Speaker 2: last week. You know, he was looked okay against the

585
00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:11,600
Speaker 2: Bears in his first start. He was not good last week.

586
00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:14,480
Speaker 2: But that's in Minnesota. In his first road start, he

587
00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:17,719
Speaker 2: was serviceable enough in Detroit. I will take the Detroit

588
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:21,880
Speaker 2: receivers overall compared to the Bucks receivers, but more importantly,

589
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:25,280
Speaker 2: I'll take the Detroit secondary, and I'm gonna butcher his

590
00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:28,000
Speaker 2: name over Warria. I forget what the Penn State rookie

591
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:30,720
Speaker 2: corner fifth round draft pick. He's even getting run with

592
00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:34,240
Speaker 2: Rashawn Melvin back healthy, but you still have Darius Slay,

593
00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 2: you have Justin Coleman in the slot. I like this secondary.

594
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:39,160
Speaker 2: They have one receiver really to worry about. I mean,

595
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 2: you don't have to worry about Prashan Perryman. So Jamis

596
00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:43,520
Speaker 2: will turn the ball over a couple times. It basically,

597
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:45,280
Speaker 2: the Bucks don't deserve to be a three and a

598
00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:47,840
Speaker 2: half point favorite here in this game. You know, I

599
00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:50,120
Speaker 2: think it goes can go either way. I would take

600
00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 2: the three, but especially with three in the hook, give

601
00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:55,680
Speaker 2: me Detroit here at home and in blowie trust.

602
00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:58,960
Speaker 1: Usually you're looking at the over when these two teams

603
00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:01,640
Speaker 1: played because their defensive haven't been good. But I'm with you.

604
00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 1: I think Detroit is improving with Arorier at corner, and

605
00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:08,800
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay also quietly improving as well. I think I

606
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:10,640
Speaker 1: mentioned last week they were kind of like middle of

607
00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 1: the pack now in defense, and they've been better in

608
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:18,640
Speaker 1: the secondary since they released Vernon Hargraves. Go figure. So

609
00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:21,280
Speaker 1: I like the under in this one as well. And

610
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:24,840
Speaker 1: you know unders generally benefit the underdog just because it's

611
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:27,640
Speaker 1: harder to pull away, you know, when you see fewer points.

612
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:29,640
Speaker 1: So I just I would point that out.

613
00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:32,840
Speaker 2: It's not pretty, but I just think there's some value

614
00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:35,920
Speaker 2: with the number at home fading. Jamis is a road favorite,

615
00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 2: which rarely happens, only happened two other times in his career.

616
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:43,880
Speaker 1: All right, let's go into my final pick, which another

617
00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 1: one kind of off brand here. This is this one

618
00:29:46,120 --> 00:29:48,440
Speaker 1: is actually a straight up off brand. It's a favorite,

619
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:53,280
Speaker 1: and it's against the Arizona Cardinals and it's the Cleveland Browns. Wow,

620
00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:56,240
Speaker 1: you called it Armorgeddon and I would a slack.

621
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:05,320
Speaker 2: You know, the end of the world as we know it.

622
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:09,200
Speaker 2: This is shocking. I said to myself, it's Raybe. I'm

623
00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 2: gonna pick Arizona here, all right, they're a home dog,

624
00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 2: it's against the Browns. I was like, there's a really

625
00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:17,960
Speaker 2: good shot here. We're gonna get Arizona play and then

626
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:22,240
Speaker 2: boom Cleveland. So this might actually be we might not

627
00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:25,760
Speaker 2: get to twenty twenty. This might signify the end of

628
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:28,240
Speaker 2: the world. Explain yourself. I can't believe you're going to

629
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:30,720
Speaker 2: Cleveland here. This is the definition of off brand.

630
00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:34,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's off brand. And you know this is It's

631
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:37,920
Speaker 1: funny because we do these podcasts, just like the Fantasy

632
00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:40,120
Speaker 1: Flex which comes out on Wednesday, we record on Tuesday.

633
00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:41,920
Speaker 1: It's kind of a lot of times you guys out

634
00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:44,320
Speaker 1: there listening get to kind of hear our introduction to

635
00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:47,520
Speaker 1: the week, like in us really doing our deep dives

636
00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:49,280
Speaker 1: as we're kind of talking through some of these things.

637
00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:52,080
Speaker 1: So there was a lull between when we did our

638
00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:55,720
Speaker 1: picks and like my final pick, which was the Cleveland Browns,

639
00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:57,880
Speaker 1: there was a good amount of time as I was

640
00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:00,280
Speaker 1: kind of digging into some things because you know, you know,

641
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:02,800
Speaker 1: getting started on the research for the week. You know,

642
00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 1: Arizona they're in like a purgatory, is the best way

643
00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 1: I can explain it. Where their best players are not

644
00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:11,840
Speaker 1: actually good. Patrick Peterson has not been good this year.

645
00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:13,920
Speaker 1: He's been one of PFF's lowest rated corners. He's giving

646
00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:15,520
Speaker 1: up a ton of production. They're not even using him

647
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:18,160
Speaker 1: in shadow cook. David Johnson has been a complete bust

648
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:21,480
Speaker 1: at running back, so now they have this pseudo three

649
00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 1: headed bott field that they tried last game, where really

650
00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:25,880
Speaker 1: it was just Chase Edmunds doing a fake punt and

651
00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 1: it was David Johnson catching a touchdown and it seemed

652
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 1: like more of a committee than it really was. But

653
00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:33,040
Speaker 1: they beat the Bengals, who are one and twelve by

654
00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:36,160
Speaker 1: three points. They beat the Giants, who are two and

655
00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:40,760
Speaker 1: eleven by six points, and then they beat the Falcons

656
00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:44,840
Speaker 1: amid you know Dan Quinn, Oh my god, he's getting fired.

657
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:47,440
Speaker 1: The season's over, like right in the middle of their tailspin.

658
00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 1: They beat the Falcons by one point, and they tie

659
00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:52,760
Speaker 1: the Lions, who are three to nine and one. So

660
00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:55,960
Speaker 1: if the schedule breaks differently, if it's not a year

661
00:31:56,040 --> 00:31:58,440
Speaker 1: where they play those four teams, they could conceive that

662
00:31:58,560 --> 00:32:01,080
Speaker 1: we beat Ozhen thirteen right now, and I wouldn't be

663
00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:03,800
Speaker 1: surprised at all. Sometimes when you watch them, like you

664
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:06,080
Speaker 1: see their final scores and you say, okay, maybe it's

665
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:08,320
Speaker 1: a good idea. But and they have been decent against

666
00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:10,440
Speaker 1: the spread this year. They're seven to five and one.

667
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:14,040
Speaker 1: But as a short favorite for Cleveland. This is a

668
00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:16,320
Speaker 1: spot where I think you want to bet against Arizona

669
00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:20,040
Speaker 1: because I just don't think they're capable of beating average

670
00:32:20,080 --> 00:32:22,840
Speaker 1: or better teams. And I think Cleveland, while certainly has

671
00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:25,280
Speaker 1: had it struggles this year, even some of their losses

672
00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:27,320
Speaker 1: from earlier in the year don't look quite as bad

673
00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 1: right now, like they're lost to Tennessee, doesn't look quite

674
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:33,000
Speaker 1: as bad considering how well Tennessee's been playing. Denver a

675
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:36,080
Speaker 1: tough team to beat. San Francisco has been. That's not

676
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:39,080
Speaker 1: the only team that they rolled thirty one to three

677
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:42,720
Speaker 1: like that. So Cleveland, I think they're solid team, average,

678
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:45,960
Speaker 1: maybe a little above average in terms of talent, but

679
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:48,760
Speaker 1: the coaching can bring them down at times. But I

680
00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:52,640
Speaker 1: think they have enough on offense against a bad Arizona defense,

681
00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:55,560
Speaker 1: especially past defense. You talked about it in our slack.

682
00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:58,560
Speaker 1: They have nobody playing well in the secondary. Byron Murphy,

683
00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:01,640
Speaker 1: they're high. Draft has been one of the worst rated

684
00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:04,480
Speaker 1: corners in PFF, as has Patrick Peterson, who's supposed to

685
00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:06,520
Speaker 1: be they're one of their best corners in the league.

686
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:08,880
Speaker 1: They can't they haven't been able to cover tight ends

687
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:11,920
Speaker 1: most weeks, but Clevelan's better than Pittsburgh. I think you

688
00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:14,640
Speaker 1: bet on Cleveland against Pittsburgh the first time, I think

689
00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:16,720
Speaker 1: then you bet the other way. But either way, like

690
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 1: this is not Pittsburgh. This is a better team than

691
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:22,120
Speaker 1: that in my opinion. Also, who knows what's going on.

692
00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:24,360
Speaker 1: This is their third straight home game, but hasn't really

693
00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:26,440
Speaker 1: been a home field advantage for him. We saw all

694
00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:28,760
Speaker 1: the terrible towles out in Arizona last week.

695
00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 2: You said that, I'm it's me versus Jason Garrett, you

696
00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:36,880
Speaker 2: versus Freddy Kitchens and the well the Browns pull of

697
00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:41,720
Speaker 2: Browns and you know, just have an undisciplined, turnover filled,

698
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 2: red zone failed you know type game, and that's really

699
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:48,040
Speaker 2: what you're betting against, right.

700
00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:49,960
Speaker 1: You know what that sounds like though, you know, red

701
00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:53,120
Speaker 1: zone failures and just mistake field game sounds like the

702
00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:56,320
Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinal offense for like three and a half quarters

703
00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 1: of the game of every game, like there are and

704
00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 1: like Kyler Murray. Over all, the numbers have been good,

705
00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:03,080
Speaker 1: and I think he's generally he's shown his flashes and

706
00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:04,280
Speaker 1: he's been playing well for.

707
00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:05,959
Speaker 2: The most He's gonna be fine. Yeah, I think he's

708
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:06,400
Speaker 2: gonna be free.

709
00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:08,920
Speaker 1: Fine, yeah, but I will say this, there are just

710
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:12,000
Speaker 1: times and it's funny because we actually did see this

711
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:15,080
Speaker 1: with Russell Wilson early in his career at times. But

712
00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:19,359
Speaker 1: there are just times when it's just they're just inexplicable, uh,

713
00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:22,200
Speaker 1: just gas by the Cardinal offense, and at times it

714
00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:24,839
Speaker 1: looks like they're they're they're trying to pick up first

715
00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:29,040
Speaker 1: downs by going sideways rather than straight ahead. And no

716
00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:30,960
Speaker 1: one on the no one on the offense is really

717
00:34:31,320 --> 00:34:33,480
Speaker 1: explosive at all. Like David Johnson always looks like the

718
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:37,280
Speaker 1: slowest player on the field. They're playing like demere birde

719
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:38,800
Speaker 1: just to get speed. He's like a he should be

720
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:42,400
Speaker 1: a like a replacement level return man. He shouldn't be

721
00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:45,200
Speaker 1: a receiver. Pharoh Cooper is is their number three. Respect

722
00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:49,000
Speaker 1: they're a legitimate number three receiver. So against a team

723
00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:51,879
Speaker 1: with more talent, just get short favorite not even a three.

724
00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 1: Give me, give me the brownser.

725
00:34:54,040 --> 00:34:56,440
Speaker 2: There's a lot of things not to like about this

726
00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:59,600
Speaker 2: Cardinals team. And look, I didn't end up back to

727
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 2: them in the plastic Tomlin spot, the Tomlin Fate spot.

728
00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:05,680
Speaker 2: That's how little I think of Arizona. They ended up

729
00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:09,080
Speaker 2: losing that game to Duck in just the sleepiest spot

730
00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:11,399
Speaker 2: for the Steelers. I think that says a lot about

731
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:14,320
Speaker 2: where this Cardinals team is. I can tell you I

732
00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:16,439
Speaker 2: won't be on the Cardinals. I've held up my word

733
00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:19,279
Speaker 2: and not mac Kingsbury. Not gonna change now.

734
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:21,400
Speaker 1: They are, like I said, They're seven and five one

735
00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:23,759
Speaker 1: against the spread, so they've had spots. But again they've

736
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:25,719
Speaker 1: played three four of the worst teams in the league,

737
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:28,920
Speaker 1: so that explains a lot of that. That wraps it

738
00:35:29,040 --> 00:35:32,400
Speaker 1: up for our against the spread picks, Stuck has Giants

739
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:36,840
Speaker 1: minus three and a half against the Dolphins, Cowboys plus

740
00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:39,440
Speaker 1: one against the Rams, and Lions plus three and a

741
00:35:39,480 --> 00:35:42,920
Speaker 1: half against the Tampa Bay Bucks. I'm rolling with Falcons

742
00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:46,239
Speaker 1: plus eleven at San fran the Broncos plus nine and

743
00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:50,279
Speaker 1: a half at KC, and the Browns as two and

744
00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:54,399
Speaker 1: a half point favorites in Arizona. Now let's get into

745
00:35:54,520 --> 00:35:56,960
Speaker 1: our favorite over under of the week. So I'll go

746
00:35:57,080 --> 00:35:59,839
Speaker 1: first here. I'm going with and this is funny because

747
00:35:59,840 --> 00:36:02,520
Speaker 1: you actually, you know, pretty much called me out on

748
00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:04,680
Speaker 1: predicting that I would choose this one before I even

749
00:36:04,719 --> 00:36:04,920
Speaker 1: did it.

750
00:36:05,120 --> 00:36:08,000
Speaker 2: This one is on brand. This is all yeah, Philly.

751
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:11,359
Speaker 1: Washington has all the things you look for in and under.

752
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:15,080
Speaker 1: It's forty right now, it'll probably go down. It'll probably

753
00:36:15,160 --> 00:36:17,279
Speaker 1: drop to thirty nine because the sharp, the bigger bets

754
00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:20,600
Speaker 1: are coming in here on the under. But number one

755
00:36:20,680 --> 00:36:23,560
Speaker 1: you have you just have, okay, the weight season divisional

756
00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:26,279
Speaker 1: under aspect of it, even though there is not quite

757
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:30,440
Speaker 1: as much familiarity with no Gruden in callahannistad. But you'll

758
00:36:30,440 --> 00:36:33,879
Speaker 1: also have the Redskins, one of the run heaviest teams

759
00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:36,719
Speaker 1: since Callahan took over, fifth most, fifth highest run rate

760
00:36:37,120 --> 00:36:40,920
Speaker 1: at forty seven percent. You have Dwayne Haskins who just

761
00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:44,360
Speaker 1: keeps getting sacked fourteen percent sack rate league worst. That

762
00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:47,000
Speaker 1: means his net yards per pass attempt is four point

763
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:49,719
Speaker 1: two three, which is also league worst. That's exactly what

764
00:36:49,880 --> 00:36:54,000
Speaker 1: you're looking for, inefficient drives that don't get anywhere fast

765
00:36:54,239 --> 00:36:56,440
Speaker 1: and can get killed by sacks on one side and

766
00:36:57,000 --> 00:36:59,960
Speaker 1: a run heavy team anyway. And then you look over

767
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:03,160
Speaker 1: to the other side and Washington top five and pressure eight.

768
00:37:04,200 --> 00:37:08,520
Speaker 1: Eagle's decent offensive line in general, but without Wayne Johnson,

769
00:37:08,560 --> 00:37:10,560
Speaker 1: who grades out as a number one tackle in Pro

770
00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:13,920
Speaker 1: Football Focus to his grades, and they have no al

771
00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:17,480
Speaker 1: seon Jeffery. They have no explosion on offense in general.

772
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:20,080
Speaker 1: They haven't scored a touchdown of more than twenty five

773
00:37:20,160 --> 00:37:22,759
Speaker 1: yards on offense since Week eight. You just have all

774
00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:25,040
Speaker 1: these kind of factors that again I'm just kind of

775
00:37:25,120 --> 00:37:27,040
Speaker 1: playing taking that value with these injuries.

776
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 2: Here.

777
00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:31,239
Speaker 1: Here's here's a crazy stet. Darius Geiss has accounted for

778
00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:36,480
Speaker 1: thirty seven percent of Washington's offensive touchdowns since Week seven.

779
00:37:36,920 --> 00:37:39,800
Speaker 1: He didn't get activated off the ir to a week eleven.

780
00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:44,680
Speaker 2: Pretty shocking, and now he's out. So now he's out,

781
00:37:44,960 --> 00:37:46,920
Speaker 2: and he provides a team that wants to just run

782
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:49,840
Speaker 2: the ball. They're gonna that's what they're gonna do. And

783
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:53,319
Speaker 2: Geist was like their their potential big hitter right now

784
00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:55,640
Speaker 2: they don't have that. This is I've said this before

785
00:37:55,680 --> 00:37:58,319
Speaker 2: that the slowest team in the NFL. They are by far.

786
00:37:59,120 --> 00:38:00,840
Speaker 2: They are thirty second in the league. And pace and

787
00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:03,919
Speaker 2: neutral situations, this is just a snail. The Eagles also

788
00:38:03,960 --> 00:38:06,080
Speaker 2: aren't fast. They played pretty slow, so you have that

789
00:38:06,200 --> 00:38:08,600
Speaker 2: work in your favor. Divisional unders. I mean, yeah, and

790
00:38:08,640 --> 00:38:11,240
Speaker 2: this Eagles offense now with all the receivers on the outside,

791
00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:15,560
Speaker 2: I mean, it's hard to watch, it really is. It's painful.

792
00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:17,759
Speaker 2: You know, I think you'll have the Redskins just trying

793
00:38:17,800 --> 00:38:21,719
Speaker 2: to run the ball bleeding clock. The Eagles, look, they're

794
00:38:21,719 --> 00:38:23,680
Speaker 2: probably going to struggle to win this game. I completely

795
00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:24,600
Speaker 2: agree with you that I'm going to be on that

796
00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:25,400
Speaker 2: under As well.

797
00:38:25,680 --> 00:38:27,880
Speaker 1: As we've done the past few weeks, we are running

798
00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:31,120
Speaker 1: a new Fade Revel promotion with our friends at Points

799
00:38:31,160 --> 00:38:32,040
Speaker 1: Bett Sportsbook.

800
00:38:32,280 --> 00:38:32,959
Speaker 2: This week, our.

801
00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:38,120
Speaker 1: Colleague Darren Revel is taking the Washington Redskins as four

802
00:38:38,160 --> 00:38:42,040
Speaker 1: and a half point underdogs at home versus the Philadelphia Eagles,

803
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:46,960
Speaker 1: and Points Bet is boosting the odds on Philly minus

804
00:38:47,040 --> 00:38:51,200
Speaker 1: four point five to plus one fifteen juice. Personally, I

805
00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:53,680
Speaker 1: think Revel is actually right on this one. The Redskins

806
00:38:53,760 --> 00:38:56,359
Speaker 1: probably are the sharp side, but those are pretty good

807
00:38:56,400 --> 00:38:59,879
Speaker 1: odds on Philly. And it's always good to fade Darren.

808
00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:04,399
Speaker 1: So if you're interested in fading Darren Revel this week

809
00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:08,000
Speaker 1: and betting on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover, just follow

810
00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:10,760
Speaker 1: the link in the episode description for more details.

811
00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:12,759
Speaker 2: All right, for my favorite total of the week, I'm

812
00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:18,040
Speaker 2: going with the Titans Texans over fifty that I think

813
00:39:18,080 --> 00:39:19,960
Speaker 2: I think this line's gonna rise. So if you're listening,

814
00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:22,759
Speaker 2: and you see it under fifty one. I would get

815
00:39:22,800 --> 00:39:24,879
Speaker 2: it on it if you like to follow a pix

816
00:39:24,920 --> 00:39:26,880
Speaker 2: er like it yourself, because fifty one is obviously a

817
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:30,120
Speaker 2: key number here in the totals market. I'm a converted

818
00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:34,040
Speaker 2: believer in Tanna Thrill, Ryan Tannehill. In this offense right now,

819
00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:37,640
Speaker 2: it's explosive since he's been the starter. It's one of

820
00:39:37,640 --> 00:39:39,840
Speaker 2: the best offenses in the NFL. I know they've benefited

821
00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:41,840
Speaker 2: from a couple breaks in a couple of games. You know,

822
00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:43,680
Speaker 2: Henry is a little banged up, but he's been the

823
00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:46,600
Speaker 2: key to this entire offense. Earlier in the year too,

824
00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:49,400
Speaker 2: the offensive line wasn't playing great, but they were dealing

825
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:51,400
Speaker 2: with some injuries. A couple guys were coming back for

826
00:39:51,480 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 2: some injuries. You tale of the one who was suspended.

827
00:39:54,520 --> 00:39:56,600
Speaker 2: You know, Roger Saffold coming over, who was one of

828
00:39:56,600 --> 00:39:59,080
Speaker 2: the best guards the NFL. He's now getting back up,

829
00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:01,720
Speaker 2: he's getting into speed, he's now getting into this offense.

830
00:40:02,000 --> 00:40:05,560
Speaker 2: The offensive line has been much better. Tannehill's just he's

831
00:40:05,600 --> 00:40:08,160
Speaker 2: been amazing. There's no other way to put it. He's

832
00:40:08,160 --> 00:40:10,400
Speaker 2: getting rid of the ball quicker too than Mariota was.

833
00:40:11,040 --> 00:40:14,560
Speaker 2: And so I believe in this offense against the Texans defense.

834
00:40:15,160 --> 00:40:17,480
Speaker 2: You know, we talk about injuries a lot, and you know,

835
00:40:17,560 --> 00:40:20,239
Speaker 2: the Ravens are playing really well and they're the one

836
00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:22,279
Speaker 2: seed in AFC. A lot of that is because they

837
00:40:22,280 --> 00:40:25,120
Speaker 2: don't have any injuries. The Patriots have had a number

838
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:27,160
Speaker 2: of it. So I think that despite some of their

839
00:40:27,239 --> 00:40:30,279
Speaker 2: run DJ numbers on defense, which aren't the worst in

840
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:32,520
Speaker 2: the world, but that's with wah set in there for

841
00:40:32,680 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 2: a good portion of the season defense. So I think

842
00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:36,360
Speaker 2: that Henry's going to have some success. They're going to

843
00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:37,800
Speaker 2: get pushed on the offense. I mean this just this

844
00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:40,719
Speaker 2: Texans defense is really bad. And then the other side

845
00:40:40,760 --> 00:40:43,200
Speaker 2: of the ball, you have a Titans defense. I like

846
00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:45,800
Speaker 2: the front seven of the Titans defense. I've talked about

847
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:49,080
Speaker 2: their defensive line multiple times, especially with the addition of

848
00:40:49,160 --> 00:40:51,960
Speaker 2: Jeffrey Simmons, but I do think that they can throw

849
00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:55,839
Speaker 2: the ball against the secondary that's really beat up. It's

850
00:40:55,920 --> 00:40:59,200
Speaker 2: pretty much, you know, from their starting secondary to start

851
00:40:59,280 --> 00:41:02,279
Speaker 2: the year, it's pretty much just Logan Ryan left. If

852
00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:05,040
Speaker 2: you think Logan Ryan is going to cover DeAndre Hopkins,

853
00:41:05,560 --> 00:41:08,759
Speaker 2: I'm sorry, it's not happening. You have Fuller. Will Fuller

854
00:41:08,800 --> 00:41:11,200
Speaker 2: could also come back for the Texans, which would help.

855
00:41:11,320 --> 00:41:14,200
Speaker 2: But I think that the Texans secondary you have, I

856
00:41:14,280 --> 00:41:16,759
Speaker 2: think ty Smith has been starting this is a cast off,

857
00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:18,920
Speaker 2: I mean, and he has great peripheral numbers in a

858
00:41:18,920 --> 00:41:21,640
Speaker 2: couple starts. I am not not a believer in ty

859
00:41:21,760 --> 00:41:24,040
Speaker 2: Smith all of a sudden being elite corner. So I

860
00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:26,360
Speaker 2: think Watson will have a big day throwing through the

861
00:41:26,400 --> 00:41:30,239
Speaker 2: air with his receivers against this secondary, which I think

862
00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:32,480
Speaker 2: is going to be I mean, look if a Dory

863
00:41:32,560 --> 00:41:34,960
Speaker 2: Jackson who's been hurt now, Shawn Simms has been hurt.

864
00:41:35,200 --> 00:41:36,759
Speaker 2: So I think that the secondary is gonna be the

865
00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:40,279
Speaker 2: biggest question mark for Tennessee going forward. I think this

866
00:41:40,440 --> 00:41:41,440
Speaker 2: ends up being a shootout.

867
00:41:41,520 --> 00:41:43,680
Speaker 1: I like the over one thing I always like to

868
00:41:43,719 --> 00:41:48,120
Speaker 1: look for in defenses is how they defend over the

869
00:41:48,160 --> 00:41:50,680
Speaker 1: middle of the field in past defense, because if you

870
00:41:50,719 --> 00:41:53,160
Speaker 1: look at football outsiders, DVA and d v OHA is

871
00:41:53,239 --> 00:41:57,000
Speaker 1: essentially just defensive adjusted value over average, which is how

872
00:41:57,480 --> 00:42:00,600
Speaker 1: much is a play impacting your odds of or losing

873
00:42:00,640 --> 00:42:02,640
Speaker 1: the game. You know, how much is a play kind

874
00:42:02,640 --> 00:42:06,120
Speaker 1: of improving your chances? And passing plays over the middle

875
00:42:06,360 --> 00:42:09,400
Speaker 1: are net plus twelve point seven percent more efficient than

876
00:42:09,400 --> 00:42:12,080
Speaker 1: the league average. Well, when going to the left of

877
00:42:12,120 --> 00:42:14,920
Speaker 1: the right side, it's negative, so you have to kind

878
00:42:14,920 --> 00:42:17,440
Speaker 1: of pick your spot. So if you can't defend the middle,

879
00:42:18,239 --> 00:42:20,239
Speaker 1: that's the mark of a really poor defense. And the

880
00:42:20,280 --> 00:42:23,200
Speaker 1: Houston Texans are number thirty two defending the middle of

881
00:42:23,239 --> 00:42:26,160
Speaker 1: the field in pass defense DVOA, which is adjusted for

882
00:42:26,200 --> 00:42:28,879
Speaker 1: strength to schedule as well. And you look at who's

883
00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:32,080
Speaker 1: number one, and it's the New England Patriots, and you

884
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:33,840
Speaker 1: can kind of see that. You know, we think of

885
00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:36,879
Speaker 1: the Patriots as you know, outside corner, shutting people down,

886
00:42:36,960 --> 00:42:39,319
Speaker 1: but it's also being able to run with guys over

887
00:42:39,360 --> 00:42:41,399
Speaker 1: the middle and make sure that you can't just get

888
00:42:41,480 --> 00:42:43,919
Speaker 1: easy first downs in your line of sight and stay

889
00:42:43,960 --> 00:42:46,200
Speaker 1: on your first read and just have a guy running

890
00:42:46,239 --> 00:42:49,280
Speaker 1: open right across your eye sight. So the Houston Texans

891
00:42:49,320 --> 00:42:52,560
Speaker 1: have been abysmal at the at the middle of the field,

892
00:42:52,600 --> 00:42:54,720
Speaker 1: and I think that plays right into what the Titans

893
00:42:54,760 --> 00:42:56,600
Speaker 1: want to do. You know, they'll use all their tight ends,

894
00:42:56,640 --> 00:43:00,320
Speaker 1: They'll use AJ Brown. I think he's made really not

895
00:43:00,520 --> 00:43:02,640
Speaker 1: just Tannehill, but A J. Brown has made a huge difference.

896
00:43:02,680 --> 00:43:08,040
Speaker 1: Tannehills start coincide with pretty much coincide with Brown. Going

897
00:43:08,120 --> 00:43:10,440
Speaker 1: from a guy running about sixty sixty five percent of

898
00:43:10,480 --> 00:43:12,680
Speaker 1: the routes to a guy running a round on pretty

899
00:43:12,719 --> 00:43:15,719
Speaker 1: much every down, every pass play now, so he's also

900
00:43:15,800 --> 00:43:18,399
Speaker 1: made a huge difference and broken out over this latter

901
00:43:18,480 --> 00:43:20,359
Speaker 1: part of the year. So yeah, I think I think

902
00:43:20,400 --> 00:43:23,759
Speaker 1: we'll see some points. Obviously, the Henry situation is one

903
00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:26,880
Speaker 1: two monitor, all right, So there you have it. Our

904
00:43:26,920 --> 00:43:30,560
Speaker 1: over under segments. I'm going with Eagles Redskins under forty.

905
00:43:30,600 --> 00:43:34,680
Speaker 1: Stuck going with Texans Titans over fifty. Now let's get

906
00:43:34,760 --> 00:43:41,640
Speaker 1: into our weekly teaser segment. Oh yeah, six point teasers. Here,

907
00:43:41,719 --> 00:43:44,160
Speaker 1: we each pick a six point two team teaser, which

908
00:43:44,440 --> 00:43:47,480
Speaker 1: is essentially you're getting six extra points for each team

909
00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:49,560
Speaker 1: you pick to cover the spread with in exchange for

910
00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:53,160
Speaker 1: a slightly reduced payout, and you can start us off

911
00:43:53,280 --> 00:43:55,760
Speaker 1: this week stuck, which two teams are you teasing?

912
00:43:56,080 --> 00:43:57,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that this week is there's actually a

913
00:43:57,800 --> 00:44:01,640
Speaker 2: lot of good teaser options. Keep in mind you have

914
00:44:01,840 --> 00:44:04,480
Speaker 2: I'll probably end up throwing the chargers in as a dog.

915
00:44:04,880 --> 00:44:07,640
Speaker 2: You know, it's a long teaser. I've written about them

916
00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:09,759
Speaker 2: a lot on Action network dot com in the Action app.

917
00:44:09,800 --> 00:44:11,879
Speaker 2: It's basically when you can tease seven and a half

918
00:44:12,000 --> 00:44:14,680
Speaker 2: eight eight and a half point favorite down under a

919
00:44:14,719 --> 00:44:16,759
Speaker 2: field goal, and you know a one and a half

920
00:44:16,880 --> 00:44:19,960
Speaker 2: to two and a half point underdog up over a touchdown.

921
00:44:20,360 --> 00:44:22,759
Speaker 2: So you have that here with the Chargers. And keep

922
00:44:22,800 --> 00:44:26,839
Speaker 2: in mind that Philip Rivers in his career as a dog,

923
00:44:27,120 --> 00:44:29,160
Speaker 2: by the way, he's pretty good as a dog. I

924
00:44:29,200 --> 00:44:31,719
Speaker 2: mean this is marginal dog. It's plus two and a half.

925
00:44:31,800 --> 00:44:34,160
Speaker 2: He's like fifty seven percent career we get to spread

926
00:44:34,160 --> 00:44:36,719
Speaker 2: as a dog. But if you tease him six points

927
00:44:36,760 --> 00:44:40,080
Speaker 2: as a dog, he's about eighty two percent, and that

928
00:44:40,520 --> 00:44:43,239
Speaker 2: clearly covers the hurdle rate, which you need, the break

929
00:44:43,320 --> 00:44:46,840
Speaker 2: even rate on a teaser, which is you know, below

930
00:44:46,920 --> 00:44:50,839
Speaker 2: seventy five percent. So look, it's just classic Rivers. Rivers

931
00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:52,560
Speaker 2: will have the ball, will be down by six, and

932
00:44:52,600 --> 00:44:55,440
Speaker 2: they'll lose late. So that I think the Chargers are

933
00:44:55,840 --> 00:44:58,160
Speaker 2: a good teaser PCRE on a team that is better

934
00:44:58,239 --> 00:45:00,640
Speaker 2: than their record now because they're de is a lot

935
00:45:00,719 --> 00:45:04,160
Speaker 2: healthier now than it has been all year, so you know,

936
00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:07,240
Speaker 2: if they still care and they still try. That defense

937
00:45:07,280 --> 00:45:09,160
Speaker 2: went through a lot earlier in the year. I mean

938
00:45:09,239 --> 00:45:13,799
Speaker 2: it was a decimated unit that had injuries on every level. Now,

939
00:45:13,920 --> 00:45:18,040
Speaker 2: it's a healthy defense, so you'll see that there. You

940
00:45:18,120 --> 00:45:20,600
Speaker 2: can't look at their total in their defensive numbers in

941
00:45:20,640 --> 00:45:23,680
Speaker 2: totality and draw any conclusions for what they will look

942
00:45:23,800 --> 00:45:25,520
Speaker 2: like the rest of the year in my opinion. So

943
00:45:25,520 --> 00:45:26,840
Speaker 2: they're a good teacher piece. But I'm going to go

944
00:45:26,920 --> 00:45:30,759
Speaker 2: here with the Raiders teasing them down from six and

945
00:45:30,840 --> 00:45:34,840
Speaker 2: a half to a half last home game ever in Oakland,

946
00:45:34,960 --> 00:45:37,719
Speaker 2: but maybe I don't care about that. Jacobs will play,

947
00:45:37,800 --> 00:45:40,600
Speaker 2: he didn't last week, so that will obviously help against

948
00:45:40,640 --> 00:45:42,960
Speaker 2: a Jags team that's dead. That's really what this bet

949
00:45:43,080 --> 00:45:47,440
Speaker 2: is on. Yeah, yeah, team, the effort's not there. It's

950
00:45:47,480 --> 00:45:48,719
Speaker 2: hard for me to put a team on a do

951
00:45:48,840 --> 00:45:50,840
Speaker 2: not bet list the NFL I tweeted this out. The

952
00:45:51,000 --> 00:45:54,520
Speaker 2: Jags are almost right there. They have their since November first,

953
00:45:54,560 --> 00:45:58,759
Speaker 2: they lost by twenty three, twenty twenty two, seventeen and

954
00:45:59,160 --> 00:46:02,840
Speaker 2: thirty five. Who's the only I mean, they've played their division,

955
00:46:03,200 --> 00:46:06,239
Speaker 2: the Bucks and the Chargers. They're not playing you know,

956
00:46:06,320 --> 00:46:09,439
Speaker 2: a murderers row. They played the winnable games, all winnable games.

957
00:46:09,560 --> 00:46:12,400
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, So this team's bets. And then in regards

958
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:14,400
Speaker 2: to the Bills, it's simple I'm teasing them up above

959
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:17,760
Speaker 2: the seven in a game that should be lower scoring.

960
00:46:18,120 --> 00:46:19,960
Speaker 2: Although I wrote up on the action up why I

961
00:46:20,000 --> 00:46:21,600
Speaker 2: grabbed some thirty six and a half on the over,

962
00:46:22,320 --> 00:46:24,440
Speaker 2: but I wouldn't take the over thirty seven thirty seven

963
00:46:24,480 --> 00:46:27,399
Speaker 2: and a half. Go check out our early week piece

964
00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:29,759
Speaker 2: on that. But it should be lower scoring. I think

965
00:46:29,800 --> 00:46:32,920
Speaker 2: the Bills are the better team here, so catching over seven,

966
00:46:33,360 --> 00:46:36,520
Speaker 2: I'm rolling with it. So Bills and Raiders, yeah, I'm

967
00:46:36,560 --> 00:46:39,120
Speaker 2: with you on the Bills. I think this it's a

968
00:46:39,200 --> 00:46:39,920
Speaker 2: coin flip game.

969
00:46:39,960 --> 00:46:42,279
Speaker 1: It's a game where the Bills can actually match a

970
00:46:42,360 --> 00:46:44,799
Speaker 1: lot of what the Steelers do well. It's probably at

971
00:46:44,840 --> 00:46:48,120
Speaker 1: this point I would say, have you know a better offense?

972
00:46:48,280 --> 00:46:51,719
Speaker 1: You know, although Deontay Johnson came on strong last week,

973
00:46:52,040 --> 00:46:53,880
Speaker 1: the Bills are kind of further along in their process

974
00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:58,080
Speaker 1: with their young raw quarterbacks. So I do like the

975
00:46:58,120 --> 00:47:00,320
Speaker 1: Bills in this spot and teasing them up to plus

976
00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:05,520
Speaker 1: eight and teasing Seattle down to a pick. I think

977
00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:08,720
Speaker 1: that Seattle is a little bit vulnerable. But this Panthers

978
00:47:08,800 --> 00:47:12,239
Speaker 1: team hasn't been playing quite as well on defense after

979
00:47:12,400 --> 00:47:14,200
Speaker 1: a really hot start, and I think this is a

980
00:47:14,200 --> 00:47:17,200
Speaker 1: spot where Seattle knows they still need to, you know,

981
00:47:17,280 --> 00:47:20,200
Speaker 1: play for playoffs and playoff seating and whatnot. I think

982
00:47:20,239 --> 00:47:23,560
Speaker 1: they'll kind of come out strong against a Panther team

983
00:47:23,600 --> 00:47:25,960
Speaker 1: that they their run defense is really bad as well,

984
00:47:26,080 --> 00:47:28,480
Speaker 1: and Seattle is going to feed it to Chris Carson

985
00:47:28,520 --> 00:47:29,640
Speaker 1: and you know that's what they want to do. In

986
00:47:29,680 --> 00:47:32,200
Speaker 1: the Panthers haven't been will stop anyone on the ground.

987
00:47:32,280 --> 00:47:34,400
Speaker 1: So like Seattle to win the game. Don't know if

988
00:47:34,440 --> 00:47:37,160
Speaker 1: they cover six on the road, but like them as

989
00:47:37,239 --> 00:47:41,320
Speaker 1: a pick. So going with Seattle along with the Buffalo Grops.

990
00:47:41,680 --> 00:47:43,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I really like that call in Seattle.

991
00:47:43,600 --> 00:47:46,719
Speaker 2: I mean, this team's still overvalued. We don't know if

992
00:47:46,800 --> 00:47:49,239
Speaker 2: Carolina has quit or what's going on with their new coach,

993
00:47:49,320 --> 00:47:51,680
Speaker 2: but this line is a little high as you would

994
00:47:51,680 --> 00:47:54,440
Speaker 2: expect it to be. But you know, I mean Gerald

995
00:47:54,520 --> 00:47:57,640
Speaker 2: McCoy also didn't practice again today. He might not play,

996
00:47:57,960 --> 00:48:00,560
Speaker 2: and without him, you know, they've already lost. They lost

997
00:48:00,560 --> 00:48:02,279
Speaker 2: all these guys in the middle that were you know,

998
00:48:02,360 --> 00:48:05,399
Speaker 2: their beef, and the run defense was bad already. We've

999
00:48:05,440 --> 00:48:07,399
Speaker 2: been over this. They transition to three to four, they're

1000
00:48:07,400 --> 00:48:09,640
Speaker 2: trying to get more a passar so Seattle can go

1001
00:48:09,719 --> 00:48:11,120
Speaker 2: in here and they can just pound it and then

1002
00:48:11,120 --> 00:48:14,720
Speaker 2: you're gonna have Wilson making play. So line inflated, Seattle

1003
00:48:14,719 --> 00:48:16,279
Speaker 2: should find a way to get this win, which is

1004
00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:18,279
Speaker 2: why I think it's a good teaser piece. Agree with

1005
00:48:18,320 --> 00:48:18,600
Speaker 2: you there.

1006
00:48:19,160 --> 00:48:26,160
Speaker 1: Let's go to our underdog money line parlay turning good

1007
00:48:26,239 --> 00:48:31,760
Speaker 1: weekends into great weekends. It's time for the money line parlay.

1008
00:48:33,040 --> 00:48:35,959
Speaker 1: I'll start this off. I'm going with the Buffalo Bills

1009
00:48:36,000 --> 00:48:38,279
Speaker 1: here as well for my money line pick. I think

1010
00:48:38,560 --> 00:48:41,880
Speaker 1: this is again a winnable game for Buffalo, who is

1011
00:48:41,920 --> 00:48:45,279
Speaker 1: a very similar team to Pittsburgh, pretty well coached, you know,

1012
00:48:45,440 --> 00:48:48,359
Speaker 1: hard nosed team. You expect them to show up every week,

1013
00:48:48,480 --> 00:48:51,640
Speaker 1: so you don't mind them going on the road. And

1014
00:48:51,680 --> 00:48:53,600
Speaker 1: I think their offense at this point is a little

1015
00:48:53,640 --> 00:48:57,120
Speaker 1: more capable than Pittsburgh's. Both teams very good on defense,

1016
00:48:57,160 --> 00:48:59,120
Speaker 1: So yeah, not expecting a lot of points at all,

1017
00:48:59,200 --> 00:49:02,080
Speaker 1: but just don't know necessarily if I'm at a point

1018
00:49:02,080 --> 00:49:04,680
Speaker 1: where Pittsburgh should be favored against what I think is

1019
00:49:04,719 --> 00:49:09,280
Speaker 1: a legitimately good NFL team with with Doug Hodges at quarterback,

1020
00:49:09,520 --> 00:49:12,600
Speaker 1: I'm not there yet. I think I think Buffalo perfectly

1021
00:49:12,719 --> 00:49:18,319
Speaker 1: capable of stealing one in Pittsburgh let's go.

1022
00:49:22,200 --> 00:49:25,719
Speaker 2: The Bills make me wanna yeah, yeah. Keep in mind

1023
00:49:25,800 --> 00:49:28,120
Speaker 2: that Bills. They showed last week they're gonna play with pace.

1024
00:49:28,320 --> 00:49:31,200
Speaker 2: But the Steelers are a complete snail on offense, and

1025
00:49:31,520 --> 00:49:35,040
Speaker 2: I don't necessarily believe in their offense either. For mine,

1026
00:49:35,080 --> 00:49:36,880
Speaker 2: I'm going with the Cowboys. Already mentioned it. Look I

1027
00:49:36,960 --> 00:49:39,000
Speaker 2: make them a favorite. They're an underdog. That's why I'm

1028
00:49:39,040 --> 00:49:41,040
Speaker 2: taking them. That's why I'm taking them here as well.

1029
00:49:42,000 --> 00:49:43,480
Speaker 2: This is still a really good offense. You got some

1030
00:49:43,600 --> 00:49:46,200
Speaker 2: extra prep by low Cell High. Everything I said before,

1031
00:49:47,800 --> 00:49:50,240
Speaker 2: it's risky rolling with Jason Garrett again, Dallas.

1032
00:49:51,360 --> 00:49:52,759
Speaker 1: I mean, I gotta get a win versus the winning

1033
00:49:52,760 --> 00:49:55,240
Speaker 1: team at some point. Maybe this is the week. Maybe

1034
00:49:55,320 --> 00:49:58,279
Speaker 1: this is the week, all right? So that does it

1035
00:49:58,360 --> 00:50:01,880
Speaker 1: for her underdog money parlay. Now let's go to the

1036
00:50:01,920 --> 00:50:03,760
Speaker 1: best of the rest, which are the games that didn't

1037
00:50:03,760 --> 00:50:05,960
Speaker 1: make it into any other segment. We got a handful

1038
00:50:05,960 --> 00:50:08,920
Speaker 1: of games here, starting with after beating Jason Garrett and

1039
00:50:08,960 --> 00:50:11,640
Speaker 1: the Cowboys, the seven and six Chicago Bears going to

1040
00:50:11,760 --> 00:50:15,480
Speaker 1: Lambo to face the ten and three Packers Cold December

1041
00:50:15,520 --> 00:50:18,520
Speaker 1: game and Lambeau Packers favored four and a half over

1042
00:50:18,680 --> 00:50:22,480
Speaker 1: under forty and a half and probably going lower. Fifty

1043
00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:24,839
Speaker 1: one percent of the public is on Chicago, but only

1044
00:50:24,920 --> 00:50:27,480
Speaker 1: thirty seven percent of the money is on Chicago, and

1045
00:50:28,080 --> 00:50:31,919
Speaker 1: sixty percent of the public on the over but only

1046
00:50:32,000 --> 00:50:34,640
Speaker 1: thirty eight percent of the money. So we're seeing some

1047
00:50:35,040 --> 00:50:39,440
Speaker 1: kind of sharp square disagreement here with the size of

1048
00:50:39,480 --> 00:50:39,840
Speaker 1: the total.

1049
00:50:40,480 --> 00:50:42,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would look at I think you're getting green

1050
00:50:42,280 --> 00:50:44,279
Speaker 2: Bay finally cheap here. I'm not a believer in what

1051
00:50:44,520 --> 00:50:46,759
Speaker 2: the Bears have been doing. Our Mitch Bortles has been doing.

1052
00:50:47,040 --> 00:50:50,440
Speaker 2: As Eddie Loyle listens to his podcast. No, he has

1053
00:50:50,560 --> 00:50:53,880
Speaker 2: good games randomly against bad defenses. And that's all this

1054
00:50:53,960 --> 00:50:55,879
Speaker 2: has been. Go back to the Rams game. They were

1055
00:50:55,920 --> 00:50:58,400
Speaker 2: still atrocious. This offense is still a truch state, and

1056
00:50:58,560 --> 00:51:00,600
Speaker 2: now they have injuries on the outside. They don't like

1057
00:51:00,600 --> 00:51:03,440
Speaker 2: their fifth tight end, Their offensive line is bad, you know,

1058
00:51:03,520 --> 00:51:05,759
Speaker 2: and it's not a team that I think is going

1059
00:51:05,800 --> 00:51:08,120
Speaker 2: to go in there and could just pound away at

1060
00:51:08,160 --> 00:51:11,279
Speaker 2: Green Bay and expose their run defense. So you know,

1061
00:51:11,480 --> 00:51:14,279
Speaker 2: this is just last week. You have Dallas minus three

1062
00:51:14,360 --> 00:51:17,160
Speaker 2: at Chicago, everyone wants to bet Dallas. Now you have

1063
00:51:17,520 --> 00:51:20,160
Speaker 2: green Bay is only minus four or five at home

1064
00:51:20,239 --> 00:51:23,359
Speaker 2: against the Bears. Seems like an overreaction because Green Bay

1065
00:51:23,360 --> 00:51:25,840
Speaker 2: had a close win last week against Washington and Dallas,

1066
00:51:25,880 --> 00:51:27,959
Speaker 2: and you know the Bears pulled off that win. Aaron

1067
00:51:28,040 --> 00:51:30,360
Speaker 2: Rodgers owned the Bears by whether he's sixteen or seventeen

1068
00:51:30,400 --> 00:51:33,840
Speaker 2: and seven against the spread, I cannot see mister Bissy

1069
00:51:33,880 --> 00:51:35,719
Speaker 2: going up here and getting this win. I think there's

1070
00:51:35,760 --> 00:51:40,160
Speaker 2: a little value on the Packers at home here in

1071
00:51:40,280 --> 00:51:42,120
Speaker 2: a huge game. By the way, now I do with

1072
00:51:42,200 --> 00:51:44,200
Speaker 2: the respect to market, sometimes I'm like, okay, am I

1073
00:51:44,239 --> 00:51:46,839
Speaker 2: missing something? Why is this line coming down? So I'm

1074
00:51:46,880 --> 00:51:49,720
Speaker 2: still digging into it. But this game for a Packers'

1075
00:51:49,719 --> 00:51:52,719
Speaker 2: futures fulfilled my obligation to mention it. They went out,

1076
00:51:52,840 --> 00:51:55,360
Speaker 2: they get the two seed and getting a buy in

1077
00:51:55,440 --> 00:51:59,080
Speaker 2: this loaded NFC is just enormous. So big game for

1078
00:51:59,200 --> 00:52:01,879
Speaker 2: the Packers, who they have their flaws. So the fewer

1079
00:52:01,960 --> 00:52:04,440
Speaker 2: games they can play in a really deep ENFC, the

1080
00:52:04,520 --> 00:52:06,279
Speaker 2: better I think the Packers get it done. You're getting

1081
00:52:06,280 --> 00:52:06,719
Speaker 2: them cheap here.

1082
00:52:07,000 --> 00:52:09,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think if there's if that line is going

1083
00:52:09,239 --> 00:52:12,239
Speaker 1: in favor of the Bears, it's probably because it's one

1084
00:52:12,280 --> 00:52:14,520
Speaker 1: of those spots where you have a team that's been

1085
00:52:14,600 --> 00:52:17,680
Speaker 1: bad versus a spread versus in the Bears versus a

1086
00:52:17,680 --> 00:52:19,960
Speaker 1: team that's been good against the spread, and Sharps are

1087
00:52:20,000 --> 00:52:22,640
Speaker 1: usually on the on the other side in those games,

1088
00:52:22,680 --> 00:52:25,400
Speaker 1: so that's probably why. But this is not really this

1089
00:52:25,480 --> 00:52:27,439
Speaker 1: is a stay away for me. It's not my style

1090
00:52:27,520 --> 00:52:30,000
Speaker 1: because I do think it's probably Packers are nothing here.

1091
00:52:30,640 --> 00:52:33,800
Speaker 1: Rogers has been really good at Lambo as well. He

1092
00:52:34,000 --> 00:52:37,200
Speaker 1: is sixty three percent ats in his against the spread

1093
00:52:37,200 --> 00:52:41,240
Speaker 1: in his career at Lambo. He's also sixty five percent

1094
00:52:41,320 --> 00:52:45,120
Speaker 1: coming off and against the spread loss, which luckily I

1095
00:52:45,200 --> 00:52:48,960
Speaker 1: bet the Redskins as my two point two pointer last week.

1096
00:52:49,120 --> 00:52:51,880
Speaker 1: The Packers didn't look all that impressive against the Redskins,

1097
00:52:51,960 --> 00:52:55,040
Speaker 1: so who knows. But more of a stay away for me.

1098
00:52:55,160 --> 00:52:57,400
Speaker 1: Let's move on next game ten and three New Wing

1099
00:52:57,480 --> 00:53:00,520
Speaker 1: win at one and twelve Cincinnati Sweet Spot game over

1100
00:53:00,560 --> 00:53:02,959
Speaker 1: one hundred and forty and a half. Eighty five percent

1101
00:53:03,040 --> 00:53:05,040
Speaker 1: of the bets eighty percent of the money on New

1102
00:53:05,080 --> 00:53:08,880
Speaker 1: England and sixty three percent of the bets fifty percent

1103
00:53:09,280 --> 00:53:10,839
Speaker 1: of the money on the over.

1104
00:53:11,400 --> 00:53:14,080
Speaker 2: This is the easiest pass for me of the week. Look,

1105
00:53:14,480 --> 00:53:16,640
Speaker 2: I was on the Pats last week and they got robbed,

1106
00:53:16,719 --> 00:53:18,440
Speaker 2: But I don't know if they necessarily deserve to cover,

1107
00:53:18,920 --> 00:53:20,520
Speaker 2: you know, I mean, maybe they could have won the game.

1108
00:53:20,760 --> 00:53:23,480
Speaker 2: They had some potentially two touchdowns take it off the

1109
00:53:23,520 --> 00:53:26,560
Speaker 2: board with and with that offense. That hurts. But you know,

1110
00:53:26,640 --> 00:53:28,839
Speaker 2: there's still there's still issues with this team, which showed

1111
00:53:28,880 --> 00:53:32,560
Speaker 2: up last week. But we've been over numerous times how

1112
00:53:32,640 --> 00:53:35,560
Speaker 2: great Brady and Belichick are in every scenario against the spread,

1113
00:53:35,719 --> 00:53:38,440
Speaker 2: but especially off of a loss. They're playing a infear

1114
00:53:38,560 --> 00:53:40,480
Speaker 2: team here, going on the road. They don't really have

1115
00:53:40,600 --> 00:53:42,879
Speaker 2: flat spots. You know, this is a team that still

1116
00:53:42,960 --> 00:53:46,319
Speaker 2: needs to win. The division is up in question, home

1117
00:53:46,400 --> 00:53:48,960
Speaker 2: field is up in question. So they're I mean, they're

1118
00:53:49,000 --> 00:53:51,080
Speaker 2: desperate for a win here. They're even I mean they're

1119
00:53:51,200 --> 00:53:55,560
Speaker 2: illegally taping the Bengals. I mean, if you spygy too.

1120
00:53:55,719 --> 00:53:55,759
Speaker 1: So.

1121
00:53:56,040 --> 00:53:58,080
Speaker 2: But look, do I want to back to wanting to

1122
00:53:58,160 --> 00:54:00,200
Speaker 2: lay ten with this offense right now on the road. No?

1123
00:54:00,360 --> 00:54:01,880
Speaker 2: But do I want to get in their way with

1124
00:54:02,160 --> 00:54:02,760
Speaker 2: the Bengals?

1125
00:54:02,920 --> 00:54:02,960
Speaker 1: No?

1126
00:54:03,560 --> 00:54:05,080
Speaker 2: I mean just to's such an easy pass for me.

1127
00:54:05,480 --> 00:54:07,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, like it's got to be. I think Bengals are

1128
00:54:07,840 --> 00:54:10,640
Speaker 1: nothing here. I don't think you can back the Pats here.

1129
00:54:10,719 --> 00:54:14,080
Speaker 2: But I agree, if you made me bet it, I

1130
00:54:14,160 --> 00:54:15,960
Speaker 2: might take the ten, but they would you would have

1131
00:54:16,080 --> 00:54:18,360
Speaker 2: to drag me kicking and screaming to the window to

1132
00:54:18,440 --> 00:54:19,480
Speaker 2: bet this. Yeah.

1133
00:54:19,640 --> 00:54:23,080
Speaker 1: Absolutely. And last up, we have a game you touched

1134
00:54:23,120 --> 00:54:25,839
Speaker 1: on a little bit, but no official pick. So nine

1135
00:54:25,880 --> 00:54:30,600
Speaker 1: to four Minnesota at five and eight Chargers Chargers underdogs

1136
00:54:30,640 --> 00:54:32,560
Speaker 1: by two and a half points. The totals at forty

1137
00:54:32,600 --> 00:54:36,200
Speaker 1: four and a half. Eighty eight percent of the public

1138
00:54:36,760 --> 00:54:40,360
Speaker 1: backing the Chargers, but only eighty one percent of the

1139
00:54:40,400 --> 00:54:42,480
Speaker 1: money is on them, so a little bit of a

1140
00:54:42,560 --> 00:54:46,600
Speaker 1: discrepancy there, and ninety one percent of bets coming in

1141
00:54:46,880 --> 00:54:49,799
Speaker 1: on the over, but only seventy percent of the money.

1142
00:54:50,120 --> 00:54:52,960
Speaker 1: I do think that's probably the better play there, just

1143
00:54:53,000 --> 00:54:55,880
Speaker 1: straight up. But I do like your teaser called with

1144
00:54:56,000 --> 00:54:56,520
Speaker 1: the Chargers.

1145
00:54:56,920 --> 00:54:59,840
Speaker 2: If three Bay wins, it won pretty much all the

1146
00:55:00,040 --> 00:55:02,840
Speaker 2: divisions are out of reach, you know, the divisions that

1147
00:55:02,920 --> 00:55:06,320
Speaker 2: are meaningful in the NFC besides the NFC East. So

1148
00:55:06,440 --> 00:55:09,759
Speaker 2: that means Minnesota, huge game for them, But if they

1149
00:55:10,000 --> 00:55:11,920
Speaker 2: lose and then the Rams lose, it's not as big.

1150
00:55:12,000 --> 00:55:13,799
Speaker 2: But that's if you're a Rams or Vikings and you're

1151
00:55:13,800 --> 00:55:15,239
Speaker 2: watching both these games at the same time. They're both

1152
00:55:15,360 --> 00:55:17,680
Speaker 2: late afternoon slots, because that's who's going to be competing

1153
00:55:17,680 --> 00:55:21,360
Speaker 2: for this last wildcard spot in the NFC. You know

1154
00:55:21,560 --> 00:55:25,320
Speaker 2: this Vikings defense. It has some holes on the outside,

1155
00:55:25,360 --> 00:55:28,520
Speaker 2: mainly Xavier Roads. We've talked about many times, but I

1156
00:55:28,640 --> 00:55:30,480
Speaker 2: think the Chargers are just They're a lot better than

1157
00:55:30,480 --> 00:55:33,640
Speaker 2: their record indicates, because that defense is now healthy if

1158
00:55:33,680 --> 00:55:37,000
Speaker 2: derwin James back. They were playing earlier without Ingram and

1159
00:55:37,040 --> 00:55:39,600
Speaker 2: Bosa completely healthy at the same time, So this defense

1160
00:55:39,680 --> 00:55:41,600
Speaker 2: is a lot better than it was. Like I said before,

1161
00:55:41,760 --> 00:55:44,440
Speaker 2: Rivers is a dog usually successful, and especially if you

1162
00:55:44,480 --> 00:55:46,440
Speaker 2: could tease them for two and a half update and

1163
00:55:46,480 --> 00:55:47,840
Speaker 2: a half, I think that's the way to go. I

1164
00:55:47,840 --> 00:55:50,919
Speaker 2: think this is a really competitive game. You're classic. Look,

1165
00:55:51,000 --> 00:55:52,680
Speaker 2: the Chargers had their blow last week. This is your

1166
00:55:52,719 --> 00:55:58,480
Speaker 2: classic River spot Vikings up. I'll say, four minute to go,

1167
00:55:59,239 --> 00:56:01,080
Speaker 2: Rivers with the ball up to twenty trying to go

1168
00:56:01,160 --> 00:56:02,400
Speaker 2: eighty yards with no timeouts.

1169
00:56:02,840 --> 00:56:07,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, throw loss the ball somehow overthrows tall ass Mike

1170
00:56:07,400 --> 00:56:10,640
Speaker 1: Williams right into the hands of Xavier Roads, who makes

1171
00:56:10,640 --> 00:56:15,080
Speaker 1: this first good play. All right, So that does it

1172
00:56:15,239 --> 00:56:17,319
Speaker 1: for the best of the arrest. Before we get out

1173
00:56:17,360 --> 00:56:20,719
Speaker 1: of here, let's do our Survivor Pool pick of the week.

1174
00:56:21,400 --> 00:56:30,480
Speaker 1: One peck one chance to advance survivor. All right, gin

1175
00:56:30,600 --> 00:56:33,400
Speaker 1: waiting a year here, So congrats to you if you

1176
00:56:33,520 --> 00:56:36,640
Speaker 1: are still alive in your Are you still alive?

1177
00:56:36,680 --> 00:56:38,240
Speaker 2: I think I've been eliminated five times.

1178
00:56:38,520 --> 00:56:40,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you have. I think I am a lot.

1179
00:56:40,239 --> 00:56:43,280
Speaker 1: I think I went with green Bay last week, right, So, yeah,

1180
00:56:43,280 --> 00:56:46,879
Speaker 1: they won somehow barely. They didn't cover, which was also

1181
00:56:46,920 --> 00:56:54,080
Speaker 1: good for me. Now we're in week fifteen. I've used Seattle, Houston, Dallas, Chargers, Eagles, Hats, Bills, Vikings,

1182
00:56:54,520 --> 00:56:59,200
Speaker 1: nine Hers, Ravens, Raiders, Browns, Chiefs, and Green Bay. So

1183
00:57:00,040 --> 00:57:03,640
Speaker 1: the Pickens are getting slim here. Can't use the Ravens

1184
00:57:04,120 --> 00:57:08,480
Speaker 1: big against the Jets already used and don't feel great

1185
00:57:08,480 --> 00:57:11,600
Speaker 1: about the Niners anyway. In this wet down spot, you're

1186
00:57:11,640 --> 00:57:13,719
Speaker 1: gonna go to g Men. Oh you can't go to

1187
00:57:13,840 --> 00:57:16,160
Speaker 1: g Man. You can't. You can't. Like, I mean, I

1188
00:57:16,240 --> 00:57:17,440
Speaker 1: get it, I get it.

1189
00:57:17,800 --> 00:57:20,000
Speaker 2: John's South there. Don't listen to my survive advice this year,

1190
00:57:20,040 --> 00:57:21,880
Speaker 2: but I was, I just don't know.

1191
00:57:21,960 --> 00:57:25,080
Speaker 1: I get it. I get it, like there's there's value

1192
00:57:25,080 --> 00:57:27,000
Speaker 1: on the spread. You're right, but I still feel like

1193
00:57:27,160 --> 00:57:28,920
Speaker 1: I think I said this before on one of the

1194
00:57:28,960 --> 00:57:32,840
Speaker 1: survivor things with like the Coats, Dolphins, like these things

1195
00:57:32,880 --> 00:57:35,760
Speaker 1: can go wrong. I think I feel better and this

1196
00:57:35,920 --> 00:57:37,000
Speaker 1: is a trust.

1197
00:57:36,840 --> 00:57:39,880
Speaker 2: Jimmy g at home against the Falcons, don't I don't.

1198
00:57:40,040 --> 00:57:42,040
Speaker 1: I think I gotta go Saints. I gotta go Saints here.

1199
00:57:42,280 --> 00:57:44,480
Speaker 1: I think I feel better about the Colts because the

1200
00:57:44,480 --> 00:57:47,640
Speaker 1: Saints are injured too. But the Colts have nobody at receiver.

1201
00:57:47,920 --> 00:57:50,480
Speaker 1: They just signed Dontrell Edmund for the second straight year,

1202
00:57:50,840 --> 00:57:55,480
Speaker 1: and they got Ashton Doolan and Cardinals reject Chad Williams,

1203
00:57:55,480 --> 00:57:57,919
Speaker 1: who couldn't even make this the mere bird littered roster.

1204
00:57:58,120 --> 00:58:02,680
Speaker 1: So I feel good about the same avenging their Super

1205
00:58:02,720 --> 00:58:06,480
Speaker 1: Bowl excuse me, super Dome defeat last week to the Niners.

1206
00:58:06,520 --> 00:58:09,080
Speaker 1: I feel better about them than I feel about the Niners.

1207
00:58:09,080 --> 00:58:11,040
Speaker 1: I think it's a letdown spot for them more so so.

1208
00:58:11,480 --> 00:58:12,720
Speaker 1: That's how bad the injuries are this week.

1209
00:58:12,760 --> 00:58:16,760
Speaker 2: By the way, we've mentioned Arizona Cardinal cast offs multiple times,

1210
00:58:17,280 --> 00:58:17,600
Speaker 2: and that.

1211
00:58:17,840 --> 00:58:21,680
Speaker 1: Does it For another episode of the Action Network podcast.

1212
00:58:21,920 --> 00:58:24,760
Speaker 1: Be sure to stay tuned into the channel. Stucky and

1213
00:58:24,840 --> 00:58:27,080
Speaker 1: Colin Wilson will be coming through with a couple of

1214
00:58:27,160 --> 00:58:30,080
Speaker 1: college football shows and we'll be back. Friedman Corner and

1215
00:58:30,120 --> 00:58:33,520
Speaker 1: I next Wednesday with another Fantasy Flex for the Championship week,

1216
00:58:33,880 --> 00:58:35,720
Speaker 1: and then Stuck and I will be back next Thursday

1217
00:58:35,960 --> 00:58:38,840
Speaker 1: with the Week sixteen edition of this pod. You can

1218
00:58:38,880 --> 00:58:42,640
Speaker 1: fall Stuck on Twitter at Stucky two and myself at

1219
00:58:42,800 --> 00:58:45,720
Speaker 1: Chris Raybond, and our handles are the same on the

1220
00:58:45,760 --> 00:58:48,720
Speaker 1: Action Network app, which you should definitely go download to

1221
00:58:48,840 --> 00:58:51,280
Speaker 1: track all your bets to see real time odds and

1222
00:58:51,680 --> 00:58:55,560
Speaker 1: win probabilities. Great app downloader if you haven't already, good

1223
00:58:55,640 --> 00:58:57,400
Speaker 1: luck this week. Let's get thish money.

1224
00:58:58,040 --> 00:59:09,760
Speaker 2: Co pac go al ready, We're finished talking